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4-5 End of Day: Corn Settles Lower Despite Gains in Wheat and Soybeans

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn’s early support from the wheat and soybean markets faded as the market struggled to find new buyers above key moving averages with demand concerns remaining about the impact of Avian Influenza and the prospect of good planting weather ahead.
  • Soybeans are struggling to stay above the 20 and 50-day moving averages as they remain locked in a sideways pattern for the 4th consecutive day. Overall support remains from strong crush demand and firmer soybean oil despite demand concerns for soybean meal.
  • Despite the downturn in Malaysian palm oil, soybean oil rebounded from yesterday’s losses, finding strong support near its 20-day moving average. Conversely, soybean meal experienced only marginal losses for the day, as its attempt to rally above resistance near the 20-day moving average fell short.
  • Ukrainian attacks on Russian airfields likely spurred further short covering in the wheat complex, rallying prices early. While both Chicago and KC initially traded higher through their 50-day moving averages before retracing, Minneapolis encountered resistance just above its 20-day moving average before declining. Ultimately, all three classes settled mid-range and well off their respective highs.
  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and 2-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 252,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices stayed in a consolidation pattern looking for direction. Despite strong trade in the wheat market and firm trade in the soybean market, corn futures failed to participate. For the week, May corn futures lost 7 ¾ cents and posted its lowest weekly close going back to the last week of February.
  • Demand concerns due to the potential impact of HPAI (Avian Influenza) have limited the corn market this week.  The cases of HPAI have grown in both poultry and dairy cattle this week, which could limit feed demand usage of corn.
  • Chinese corn prices have traded near three-year lows on the Dalian exchange as corn supplies are plentiful.  The USDA foreign ag service reduced 24/25 Chinese corn imports citing better expected overall production and increased planting area. China has remained mostly absent from the US corn export market so far this marketing year.
  • Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day weather models are forecasting above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation going into Mid-April. That combination and recent rain fall over the past week improved the chances for the next US corn crop to get off to a good start.
  • Brazil weather remains unthreatening overall for development of the second (safrinha) corn crop. There are no short-term issues now, but South American weather will remain a key market driver in the weeks ahead.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can breakout and close above resistance between the recent high of 448 and the January high of 452 ¼, they could run toward the next major resistance level of 495 – 510. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA gave little in the way of outright bullish information to trigger great amounts of short covering as their March 1 stocks and prospective soybean plantings estimates were relatively neutral and came in as expected by the market. That said, Managed Money still held a sizable 135,000 contract net short position in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, which can still fuel a short covering rally if issues come up this season, with planting not that far off. Otherwise, prices may still be at risk of retesting the recent lows this spring if weather stays benign and planting goes smoothly.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher and were bull spread with most of the gains in the front months while new crop soybeans were only 1 cent higher. Support came again from strength in the soybean oil market with May futures closing higher by 1.54% while soybean meal slipped a bit lower.
  • For the week, May soybeans lost 6 ½ cents which marks the third consecutive week of losses. November soybeans only lost 1 ½ cents for the week; May soybean meal was down $4.60, while May soybean oil gained 0.94 cents. Last week, funds covered a portion of their net short position but likely sold some of it back out this week.
  • With palm oil having traded lower today, strength in soybean oil likely came from higher crude oil. Today, Brent crude oil rose to over $90 today and some analysts expect that it could exceed $100 a barrel. Increasing tensions between Iran and Israel are the likely reason for this week’s rally.
  • Export sales remain weak for soybeans with 7.1 mb in sales reported in yesterday’s report as the world largely turns to Brazil for their purchases. Yesterday there was some positive news with Mexico picking up 5.6 mb of old crop US soybeans, but that was the first flash sale reported in weeks.

Above: Support around 1168 appears to be holding for now. Should that area continue to hold, and prices close above the recent high around 1227, they could then run toward the 1291 – 1297 chart gap, though resistance might be found near 1250. If prices drop below 1168, they then run the risk of retreating toward 1130 – 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat managed double digit gains in the Chicago class, with Kansas City and Minneapolis having only modest gains. Early strength stemmed from talk that Ukraine attacked Russian airfields, but some of that strength faded into the close, potentially due to a friendly jobs report that rallied the US Dollar Index. And after a back-and-forth trade over the past several sessions, May Chicago did post a weekly gain of seven cents.
  • FAO-AMIS has reportedly reduced their estimate of global wheat stockpiles for the 23/24 season. Compared to the March estimate of 318.9 mmt, the new projection has fallen to 317.9 mmt. While they also slightly raised wheat production, the lower stocks are attributed to a cut to Russian inventory. 
  • Wheat conditions in France are rated 65% good to excellent. For reference, the crop was rated at 93% GTE at this time last year. Very wet conditions in western Europe are to blame for the decline. Other than some dryness in the Black Sea region and the US southern plains, there are not many other concerns for global wheat growing areas.
  • While Russia and Ukraine still have the world’s cheapest wheat offers, Russian FOB values have increased from $198 to $213 per ton over the past three weeks. If those export prices continue to rise, it may present the opportunity for the US to become more competitive.
  • From a technical perspective, May Chicago wheat rallied above the 50-day moving average of 570 during today’s session. Though it closed below that level, it has not traded above that moving average since late January. Therefore, the chart is beginning to look a bit more friendly, and any supportive news in the future may give wheat reason to run to the upside.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since making a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways with relatively small gains capped by overhead resistance. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market remains oversold on a macro level, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both of these factors could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains above the market around the 50-day moving average. Should prices rebound and close above 567, they could still potentially challenge the 100-day moving average, as well as the congestion area between 585 and 620. Although, if prices retreat and close below 523 ½, there’s a risk of trading downwards toward the next major support level situated around 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After posting a key bullish reversal on April 3 and with additional support from being oversold, prices may attempt to extend further and challenge the resistance area around 660 – 670. However, if they fail to rally, they may be at risk of drifting back toward psychological support at 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼.

Other Charts / Weather

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4-4 End of Day: Markets Close Mixed as They Continue to Consolidate

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market encountered choppy two-sided trade throughout the session as it sought direction and continued to consolidate. Sluggish weekly export sales that remain ahead of last year contributed to the sentiment.
  • Poor weekly soybean export sales initially overtook the positive news of a flash sale to Mexico and pressured the soybean market to its lows at the open of today’s day session. Fortunately, the market was able to regain most of the day’s losses in choppy two-sided trade.
  • The drop in soybean oil, which was pressed by weakness in Malaysian palm oil, added to the negativity in soybeans, while meal gained on the day as traders likely unwound long oil/short meal positions.
  • Disappointing wheat export sales for the 23/24 marketing year and a decrease in Matif wheat futures added resistance to today’s wheat prices. All three classes settled below their highs, with May KC wheat encountering technical selling pressure at the 50-day moving average. Minneapolis contracts, however, managed to sustain yesterday’s gains despite weakness in neighboring Chicago and KC contracts.
  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, US Drought Monitor, and 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS, NOAA, and the NDMC.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 252,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Choppy, two-sided trade dominated today’s session as the corn market was looking for direction. Weekly export sales were sluggish for corn compared to recent weeks, but an overall firmer tone in the wheat market supported prices as the corn market continues to consolidate.
  • USDA released weekly corn export sales on Thursday morning. Last week’s new sales commitments were 37.3 mb (948,000 mt) for the marketing year. This is the first time since mid-February that corn sales were under the 1.0 mmt mark. Japan was the largest buyer of US corn last week.
  • Export shipments last week were 64.6 mb. This was well above the 45.1 mb needed to reach the USDA export target of 2.100 billion bushels for the marketing year. Total corn export commitments are running 18% ahead of last year.
  • Weather forecasts for the US are signaling a warmer and dryer pattern going into mid-month. That combination and recent rain fall over the past week improved the chances for the next US corn crop to get off to a good start.
  • Brazil weather remains unthreatening overall for development of the second (safrinha) corn crop. There are no short-term issues now, but South American weather will remain a key market driver in the weeks ahead.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can close above 445, they could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA gave little in the way of outright bullish information to trigger great amounts of short covering as their March 1 stocks and prospective soybean plantings estimates were relatively neutral and came in as expected by the market. That said, Managed Money still held a sizable 135,000 contract net short position in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, which can still fuel a short covering rally if issues come up this season, with planting not that far off. Otherwise, prices may still be at risk of retesting the recent lows this spring if weather stays benign and planting goes smoothly.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower but backed off their early morning lows thanks to support from higher soybean meal and a flash sale reported by the USDA. Soybean oil traded lower today due to a decline in palm oil, but the overall trend is higher thanks to strong demand.
  • This morning, the USDA reported an increase of just 7.1 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 which was below the lower end of trade estimates. Soybeans sales commitments are now down 19% from last year. Last week’s export shipments were 20.2 mb and were above the 14.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export expectations. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and the Netherlands.
  • With Brazil’s harvest nearing 80% complete, they have dominated global export sales with cheaper offers than from the US. Estimated Brazilian production is still unclear with the USDA projecting 156 mmt but Brazil’s CONAB closer to 146 mmt. There is rain forecast in South America which could slow the harvest pace.
  • This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 5.6 mb of old crop soybeans to Mexico for the 23/24 marketing year which was supportive, and the first flash sale reported in weeks. Export demand is low overall, but domestic demand remains firm thanks to profitable crush margins.

Above: The market’s recent close below the 1175 support level suggests a potential for further retreat toward 1130 – 1140. However, the market shows signs of becoming oversold, which could provide support in case of an upward turn in prices. Overhead, nearby resistance may be found between the 50-day moving average of 1185 and 1202. A close above this range could pave the way for a test of the recent high at 1226 ¾.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a mixed close today and earlier gains faded by the end of the session. A poor export sales figure, along with May Matif wheat breaking below 200 Euros both weighed on US futures. 
  • The USDA reported an increase of only 0.6 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24, and an increase of 9.6 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 19.0 mb were above the 18.6 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 710 mb.
  • Aston, a Russian grain shipping company has come out and denied reports that some of their vessels are being held in port by the Russian government. A spokesperson from the company said that phytosanitary requirements are being fully observed. Of note, however, are new reports suggesting that a different company, Grainflower DMCC, has shipments being held up by the Russian government.
  • The US 24/25 winter wheat production may increase 2% to 35.6 million tons, according to LSEG commodities research. Additionally, they are estimating yield at 50.3 bpa, which would be up 3.1% from the trend yield.
  • According to the USDA as of April 2, about 18% of the US winter wheat area is experiencing drought conditions. This represents a 1% increase from the previous week. At the same time, approximately 25% of the spring wheat area is in drought – this is unchanged from last week.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since making a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways with relatively small gains capped by overhead resistance. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market remains oversold on a macro level, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both of these factors could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains above the market around the 50-day moving average. Should prices rebound and close above 567, they could still potentially challenge the 50 and then the 100-day moving averages, as well as the congestion area between 585 and 620. Although, if prices retreat and close below 523 ½, there’s a risk of trading downwards toward the next major support level situated around 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. As weather becomes a more dominant market mover, we are targeting 670 – 700 versus May ’24 futures to recommend making additional sales. This area represents a modest 20% retracement back toward the 2022 highs.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After posting a key bullish reversal on April 3 and with additional support from being oversold, prices may attempt to extend further and challenge the resistance area around 660 – 670. However, if they fail to rally, they may be at risk of drifting back toward psychological support at 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼.

Other Charts / Weather

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4-3 End of Day: Short Covering in Wheat Supports Corn; Soybeans Rally Alongside

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market found support from rising wheat prices, boosted further by a rally in crude oil and a weakening US dollar index, closing near the upper end of its range, just a penny and a quarter shy of the high in the May contract.
  • Early morning strength in the soybean market faded into midday before charging back from the lows with soybean meal and oil both rallying alongside. Additional support may have come from an announcement from Phillips 66 stating that the company’s San Francisco refinery is on track to increase its renewable diesel production by 20k barrels/day by the end of the second quarter, as well as begin producing sustainable aviation fuel.
  • After briefly extending yesterday’s losses, the wheat complex reversed course from yesterday’s negativity and rallied back to settle near the highs in all three classes. Traders likely covered short positions while adding some needed weather premium to prices, as confidence waned in the forecasts of beneficial rain for the dry areas of the SW plains.
  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, and GRACE-Based Drought Indicators for the US and South America, courtesy of the NWS, NOAA, NASA-Grace, and the NDMC.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 252,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices found some buying support on Wednesday as strength in wheat, the crude oil market and a weaker dollar helped support prices. Despite the higher trade, May futures traded within yesterday’s trading range as prices consolidated.
  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for new sales to range from 800,000 – 1.4 mmt. Last week corn sales totaled 1.206 mmt, which was toward the top end of expectations. Current corn export sales are running ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA targets.
  • Concerns about HPAI (Avian Influenza) have weighed on grain markets over the past couple sessions. The detection of HPAI in cattle herds and in US poultry flocks have the market concerned about limited demand potential and added selling pressure.
  • Brazil weather is still favorable overall for development of the second (safrinha) corn crop. There are no short-term issues now, but South American weather will remain a key market driver in the weeks ahead.
  • Weekly ethanol production averaged 1.073 million barrels/day last week. This hit a new daily high for production for the year. Total production was up 7.0% from last year’s levels. Corn used in ethanol production was estimated at 106.5 mb for the week. Total corn used for the ethanol grind for the marketing year has reached 3.104 bb, which is currently ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA targets.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can close above 445, they could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA gave little in the way of outright bullish information to trigger great amounts of short covering as their March 1 stocks and prospective soybean plantings estimates were relatively neutral and came in as expected by the market. That said, Managed Money still held a sizable 135,000 contract net short position in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, which can still fuel a short covering rally if issues come up this season, with planting not that far off. Otherwise, prices may still be at risk of retesting the recent lows this spring if weather stays benign and planting goes smoothly.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher, breaking the trend of five consecutive days of losses prior to today. Futures were likely recovering from oversold conditions but also got help from higher soybean meal and oil prices. May soybean futures are back in between the 40 and 50-day moving averages.
  • Tomorrow, the USDA will release its export sales report. Soybean sales are expected to be on the soft side again with trade guesses between 200k and 600k metric tons. There have been no soybean flash sales reported in two weeks, and part of the weakness in soybeans lately has been the lack of export demand. This demand is not expected to improve with the ongoing South American harvest.
  • Crude oil rallied sharply today above $86 per barrel with support from the lower US Dollar. Higher crude oil prices along with stronger vegetable oil prices have been a big support to soybean oil and soybeans. Demand for soybean oil as feedstock is increasing as more biofuel plants pop up across the country.
  • In Brazil, CONAB has estimated that their soybean harvest is more than 71% complete while other analysts peg the completion at 76% done or higher. Discrepancy over total production remains with the USDA holding relatively firm in its guess of 156 mmt while CONAB is much lower near 142 mmt.

Above: The market’s recent close below the 1175 support level suggests a potential for further retreat toward 1130 – 1140. However, the market shows signs of becoming oversold, which could provide support in case of an upward turn in prices. Overhead, nearby resistance may be found between the 50-day moving average of 1185 and 1202. A close above this range could pave the way for a test of the recent high at 1226 ¾.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat stopped the bleeding today with a higher close for all three classes. The rally was likely fund short covering; managed funds are estimated to still be short about 90,000 Chicago wheat contracts. In addition, the sharp drop in the US Dollar today may have offered some support to wheat and the grain complex.
  • Russia is reportedly expanding their investigation on the quality of grains for export. Recently, as much as 400,000 mt of grain belonging to shipper RIF, was stuck in port. Now, sources say that Russia has not issued the necessary phytosanitary certificates for two Aston vessels.
  • There are some weather issues in western Europe, where they have received too much Rain. France in particular is expected to receive an additional 1-2 inches. Interestingly, Paris milling wheat futures had a mixed close, with a loss of 0.50 Euros in the front month May contract, but a gain of 0.50 in December.
  • According to Reuters, Indian government is asking private traders to not purchase new-season wheat in an effort to rebuild reserves. Over the past couple of years, record amounts of wheat were sold out of reserves to reduce food inflation and an export ban from 2022 also remains in place. The Food Corporation of India, which is backed by the government, plans to purchase 30 mmt of wheat in 2024, compared with 26.2 mmt last year.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since making a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways with relatively small gains capped by overhead resistance. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market remains oversold on a macro level, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both of these factors could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains above the market around the 50-day moving average. Should prices rebound and close above 567, they could still potentially challenge the 50 and then the 100-day moving averages, as well as the congestion area between 585 and 620. Although, if prices retreat and close below 523 ½, there’s a risk of trading downwards toward the next major support level situated around 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. As weather becomes a more dominant market mover, we are targeting 670 – 700 versus May ’24 futures to recommend making additional sales. This area represents a modest 20% retracement back toward the 2022 highs.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After posting a key bullish reversal on April 3 and with additional support from being oversold, prices may attempt to extend further and challenge the resistance area around 660 – 670. However, if they fail to rally, they may be at risk of drifting back toward psychological support at 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼.

Other Charts / Weather

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4-2 End of Day: Lower Outside Markets and Solid Winter Wheat Ratings Press Grains Lower

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Weakness from the wheat complex and equity markets spilled over to the corn market which closed near the bottom of its 12 ¼ cent range.
  • Soybeans followed the strength in soybean oil, trading higher in the day and fading to close lower alongside weaker soybean meal. Additional technical selling came as prices fell below the 20 and 50-day moving averages.
  • The strong crush pace is likely adding pressure to soybean meal as inventories begin to swell and export demand wanes from increased supply from South America. Soybean oil, on the other hand, continues to see strong domestic demand as demonstrated by lower year-over-year stock which is lending the product support along with strong world veg oil prices.
  • The wheat complex closed lower in all three classes, with Minneapolis printing a new contract low and low close. Strong winter wheat ratings and lower outside markets provided the incentive to sellers to press the markets lower.
  • To see the updated US 6 – 10 day Temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the 7-day forecast precipitation for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS, and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 252,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • It was a difficult day in the grain markets as strong selling pressure in the wheat market from favorable crop ratings spilled over into the corn market. Outside market weakness in the equity markets also helped add to the volatility as corn prices pushed the May futures to their lowest prices since March 5.
  • Charts saw technical selling as corn prices pushed lower for the second consecutive session, trading below the most recent low of 426 in the May futures to 424 ½. The weak price action, poor money flow, and lack of bullish news will likely keep sellers active in upcoming sessions.
  • Good precipitation forecast for the corn belt is likely to improve dry areas of the corn belt still reflected on the Drought Monitor maps. U.S. weather is looking more favorable for a potential good start to the 2024 U.S. corn crop.
  • Brazil weather is still trending overall favorable for development of the second (safrinha) corn crop. There are no short-term issues now, but South American weather will remain a key market driver in the weeks ahead.
  • Ethanol grind for the first half of the marketing year has been strong. During this period (Sept.-Feb.) corn used for ethanol totaled 2.712 billion bushels or up 6.4% over last year. This domestic demand is trending ahead of the USDA expect pace for the marketing year.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can close above 445, they could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA gave little in the way of outright bullish information to trigger great amounts of short covering as their March 1 stocks and prospective soybean plantings estimates were relatively neutral and came in as expected by the market. That said, Managed Money still held a sizable 135,000 contract net short position in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, which can still fuel a short covering rally if issues come up this season, with planting not that far off. Otherwise, prices may still be at risk of retesting the recent lows this spring if weather stays benign and planting goes smoothly.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly lower which marks the fifth consecutively lower trading day in the May contract. Pressure continues to come from last week’s USDA report, which showed higher intended planted acres than last year and pressure from lower soybean meal. Soybean oil closed higher and initially supported soybeans earlier in the day before fading.
  • The driver behind the rally in soybean oil prices has come from palm oil and other veg oils. Sunflower oil has been cheaper which has incentivized India to import 51% more sunflower oil in March and 3.3% fewer palm oil imports.
  • Yesterday afternoon, the Fats and Oils report was released and saw a new record for February soybean crush at 196.4 mb. This was slightly lower than the average trade guess but was up 9.6% from last year. While bean oil stocks were down 9% from last year and below expectations.
  • Agrural estimated the Brazilian soybean harvest at 74% complete as of March 28, and Argentina is just now beginning to harvest its soybeans. With the influx of new South American soybean inventories, US exports have been struggling, and yesterday’s export inspections reflected that with just 15.2 mb inspected putting the total for the year at 1,359 mb, 19% lower than the previous year.

Above: Since the middle of March, the soybean market has traded sideways mostly between 1210 and 1180. If 1175 support continues to hold and if prices close above the March high of 1226 ¾, there’s potential for a test of the 1247 ½ January high. If not, the market runs the risk of retreating down toward the 1130 – 1140 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Yesterday’s downward momentum carried through to another negative close for US wheat futures. Pressure stemmed from a lower close for Matif wheat, and lower markets in neighboring corn and soybean futures. The grain complex may also be experiencing some spillover from lower equity markets; at the time of writing, the Dow is down over 450 points.
  • According to the USDA, the winter wheat crop is rated 56% good to excellent and just 11% poor to very poor. This is a relatively good rating when compared with recent years and may also account for some of today’s weakness. Last year, just 28% of the crop was rated Good to Excellent (GTE). When looking at the breakdown, HRW wheat was rated 54% GTE, while SRW was 68% GTE. The USDA also reported that 1% of the spring wheat crop is planted.
  • India is expected to import wheat for the 24/25 season, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. The season begins in April, and imports may total 2 mmt due to good domestic demand coupled with a drop in government reserves. If true, this would be the first time India has been a net importer since the 17/18 season.
  • Saudi Arabia reportedly purchased 795,000 mt of wheat in their tender for June/July delivery, which was more than the expected 595,000 mt. This is the first wheat tender by their General Food Security Authority this year – the last tender was in December of 2023 and resulted in a purchase of 1.353 mmt. In other tenders, Japan is looking for 113,000 mt of wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since making a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways with relatively small gains capped by overhead resistance. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market remains oversold on a macro level, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both of these factors could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains above the market around the 50-day moving average. Should prices rebound and close above 567, they could still potentially challenge the 50 and then the 100-day moving averages, as well as the congestion area between 585 and 620. Although, if prices retreat and close below 523 ½, there’s a risk of trading downwards toward the next major support level situated around 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. As weather becomes a more dominant market mover, we are targeting 670 – 700 versus May ’24 futures to recommend making additional sales. This area represents a modest 20% retracement back toward the 2022 highs.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: There remains considerable resistance in the area between the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. If prices can close above 605 ¼, they could continue towards the congestion range between 610 and 640. Otherwise, if they retreat back below initial support of 575, prices could potentially test the 551 ½ March low.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since last summer, Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After breaking through the lower boundary of its sideways range, Minneapolis wheat is currently exhibiting signs of being oversold, raising the risk of drifting towards the psychological support at 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼. However, this trajectory could change if an external bullish catalyst emerges. In which case, the oversold conditions could provide support, to help lift prices upwards to challenge the resistance zone around 660 – 670.

Other Charts / Weather

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4-1 End of Day: Grains Lower to Start April

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn prices were lower Monday after last week’s supportive planting intentions and grain stocks numbers. Weather in Brazil continues to look non-threatening in the short term for the currently growing second crop corn.  
  • Soybean closed lower on Monday after very poor export inspections of just 15.2 million bushels put total inspections down 19% year over year.
  • Soybean meal prices were also lower on the day while soybean oil held onto small gains given continued strength in crude oil futures.
  • The US Dollar Index traded to its highest level since mid-November today putting pressure on all three wheat classes which closed lower on the day.
  • To see the updated Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of the NWS, and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 243,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn market saw selling pressure to start the week as the market still weighing out the recent USDA report for planting intentions and grain stocks. While overall numbers were better than expected the supply of corn in the front end and projected long term still limits the market.
  • The USDA Weekly export inspections were supportive on Monday morning. Last week total corn inspections were 1.432 MMT (54.6 mb), above the high end of market expectations. Year-to-date, total inspections have reached 25.87 MMT (1.018 bb), up 34% over last year.
  • Improved precipitation forecast for the corn belt are likely to Improve areas of the corn belt still reflected on the drought monitor maps. U.S. weather is looking more favorable for a potential good start to the 2024 U.S. corn crop.
  • Brazil weather is still trending overall favorable for development of the second corn crop. There are no short-term issues now, but South America weather will stay as a key market driver in the weeks ahead.
  • Managed money grew their short positions in the corn market last week as prices slid into the USDA Acres and Grain Stocks report. Funds are now net short 251,730 contracts on last week’s Commitment of Trader’s report. This was an increase of 8,742 net short positions.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can close above 445, they could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA gave little in the way of outright bullish information to trigger great amounts of short covering as their March 1 stocks and prospective soybean plantings estimates were relatively neutral and came in as expected by the market. That said, Managed Money still held a sizable 148,399 contract net short position in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, which can still fuel a short covering rally if issues come up this season, with planting not that far off. Otherwise, prices may still be at risk of retesting the recent lows this spring if weather stays benign and planting goes smoothly.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans finished the day lower despite a higher start. Last week’ USDA report showed planting intentions and stocks within the average trade guesses, but the increase in acres was still bearish. Soybean oil had provided support earlier in the day but faded slightly to close higher while soybean meal ended the day lower.
  • Today, soybean inspections were released and totaled 15.2 mb for the week ending March 28. This was lower than the lowest end of the trade range and puts total inspections at 1,359 mb which is down 19% from the previous year.
  • In January, soybean oil for use in US biofuel production fell to 960 million pounds from 1,141 million pounds in December. Despite this, crush demand is strong and soybean crush is seen at 196.7 mb in February which would be up 11.2% from the previous year.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans as of March 26 by 13,559 contracts leaving them net short 134,780 contracts, but it is estimated that on Thursday following the USDA report, they sold 1,500 contracts.

Above: Although May soybeans rejected a rally through the March 14 high of 1217 ½, they could still test the January high of 1247 ½ if downside support near 1175 continues to hold and if prices close above 1226 ¾. If not, the market runs the risk of retreating down toward the 1130 – 1140 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat classes posted losses today. The US Dollar Index was also up sharply today, breaking above the 105 mark and to the highest level since mid-November. This put some pressure on the grain complex and wheat in particular, as it makes it more expensive for importing countries to buy US ag goods.
  • Weekly wheat inspections at 18.3 mb bring the total 23/24 inspections now to 543 mb. That is down 12% from last year and inspections are running behind the pace to meet the USDA’s goal.
  • According to the CFTC as of March 26, managed funds increased their short position in Chicago wheat by 14.3% to 92,102 contracts, from 80,570 previously. The Kansas City wheat short increased by 12.6% from 37,857 to 42,658 contracts.
  • Ukraine’s grain exports have totaled 34.6 mmt since the season began on July 1. That is a 7.5% decline year on year. However, their wheat exports in particular have seen a 7.5% increase since last year at 13.7 mmt. Of that total, 1.9 mmt was shipped in March.
  • Reportedly, the Indian government is mandating that traders, food processors, and retailers must report wheat stocks every Friday in April. This is in an effort to prevent hoarding; India had a previous limit on how much wheat that traders could hold, but this expired at the end of March. In addition, their government surplus of wheat is said to be the lowest since 2017 at 9.7 mmt.
  • SovEcon has reported that Russia had shipped 1.02 mmt of grain last week, with 840,000 mt of that being wheat. That total is down from 1.27 mmt previously, while the previous week’s wheat shipments were at 1.27 mmt. In addition, IKAR has said that Russian wheat FOB values ended at $208 per mt last week, resulting in the third weekly increase in a row.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since making a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways with relatively small gains capped by overhead resistance. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market remains oversold on a macro level, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both of these factors could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat posted a bearish reversal on March 25, indicating there is significant resistance above the market near the 50-day moving average. Prices could still challenge the 50 and 100-day moving averages, and the 585 – 620 congestion area if they rebound and close above 567. Otherwise, if they retreat and close below 523 ½, they run the risk of trading down toward the next major support level near 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. As weather becomes a more dominant market mover, we are targeting 670 – 700 versus May ’24 futures to recommend making additional sales. This area represents a modest 20% retracement back toward the 2022 highs.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: There remains considerable resistance in the area between the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. If prices can close above 605 ¼, they could continue towards the congestion range between 610 and 640. Otherwise, if they retreat back below initial support of 575, prices could potentially test the 551 ½ March low.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since last summer, Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis wheat continues to trade sideways with overhead resistance near the 50-day moving average. Initial support remains below the market near the 630 level with more support near 600 if prices fall further. Up top, if the market reverses and closes above the 50-day moving average and 675 – 680 resistance, it could challenge the 700 – 710 area.

Other Charts / Weather

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3-28 End of Day: Corn Settles Higher as Stocks and Acreage Come in Below Expectations

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, March 29, 2024, in Observance of Good Friday

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite decent weekly export sales, corn trade prior to today’s USDA March 1 Grain Stocks and Planting Intentions report was lackluster. However, upon the report’s release, which revealed stocks and acreage numbers below expectations, May corn rallied 21 ¼ cents before settling 6 cents off its high.
  • Soybeans settled mixed but well off their lows with support from higher corn and soybean oil. The USDA’s quarterly stocks and acreage estimates for soybeans were mostly neutral as they came in right in line with trade estimates and above last year’s numbers.
  • The USDA numbers for wheat overall were relatively neutral with total acres just below trade estimates, while March 1 stocks were 34 mb above the average trade guess. Support for both Chicago and KC wheat came from neighboring corn futures and higher Matif wheat which also saw a bullish reversal. Minneapolis likely saw pressure from increased spring wheat acres that came in above expectations and last year’s totals.
  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor, 7-day precipitation forecast, and the 8 – 14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, NOAA, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 243,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures posted strong double-digit gains after buyers stepped into the market with the USDA report that showed planting intentions and grain stocks were below market expectations. For the week, May corn finished 2 ¾ cents higher.
  • The strong price action on the session had May futures post its highest daily close since February 12.  With the May futures showing a strong technical close over their 50-day moving average for the first time since October, they could see additional short covering and rally next week. Early week price action will be key in determining follow-through trade from today’s strength.
  • The USDA projected corn planting intentions at 90.06 million acres for the upcoming market year. This was 1.7 million acres below expectations and the lowest in the past 2 years. The number of acres may have room to increase by the June Plantings report as 6.3 million acres of principal crop ground was removed from last year’s totals. The USDA is estimating all crop land to total 313.3 million acres, down from 319.6 million acres last year.
  • The USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks report for corn showed a total of 8.347 billion bushels of supply, up 12.9% from last year. This total was 80 mb below market expectations as corn usage in the first quarter was stronger than expected. Of those grain stocks, 5.079 billion bushels were stored on farms, up 23% over last year. The large amount of on farm storage could be a limiting factor in corn prices as bushels move in the cash market.
  • Weekly export sales reported this morning remain supportive for corn prices. Last week, exporters made new sales of 47.5 mb (1.207 mmt) of corn. This was near the top end of expectations. Cumulative corn sales now reach 1.689 billion bushels, up 19% from last year.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can close above 445, they could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA gave little in the way of outright bullish information to trigger great amounts of short covering as their March 1 stocks and prospective soybean plantings estimates were relatively neutral and came in as expected by the market. That said, Managed Money still held a sizable 148,399 contract net short position in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, which can still fuel a short covering rally if issues come up this season, with planting not that far off. Otherwise, prices may still be at risk of retesting the recent lows this spring if weather stays benign and planting goes smoothly.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans finished the day mixed with a slight loss in the front months and gains in the new crop. Futures rebounded from sharp losses earlier in the day prior to the release of the USDA Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report. The report was bullish for corn and relatively neutral for soybeans, but soybeans gained positive momentum from the gains in corn.
  • Today’s USDA report was very much in line overall with the average trade guesses but still showed more expected soybean acres than last year. The USDA said that 86.51 million acres of soybeans would be planted in 2024 which compares with 83.6 ma last year. US soybean stocks were called at 1.845 billion bushes and were within trade expectations but higher than last year’s 1.687 bb.
  • For the week, May soybeans lost just 1 cent, November soybeans lost 3/4 of a cent, May soybean meal lost $1.40 to $337.70, and May soybean oil gained 0.31 cents. Crush margins have declined recently but remain profitable enough to keep processors buying cash soybeans. The domestic demand for soybeans is needed as export sales have been very slow.
  • With significant discrepancies between CONAB’s and the USDA’s estimates for Brazilian soybean production, Brazilian consultancy Agroconsult has now increased their estimates to 156.5 mmt citing an expansion of estimated planted area. This estimate is much closer to the USDA’s guess of 157 mmt and brings doubts to CONAB’s guess of 149 mmt.

Above: Although May soybeans rejected a rally through the March 14 high of 1217 ½, they could still test the January high of 1247 ½ if downside support near 1175 continues to hold and if prices close above 1226 ¾. If not, the market runs the risk of retreating down toward the 1130 – 1140 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed higher in both Chicago and KC contracts, while posting small losses for Minneapolis. A lower acreage number than anticipated helped winter wheat to rally, while higher spring wheat acreage weighed on Minneapolis futures. The sharp rise in corn futures and a higher close for Matif wheat, which reversed from the recent downtrend, also added support.
  • In today’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report, total wheat acreage was reported at 47.5 million acres, slightly below the trade estimate of 47.7 million acres and a 3% decrease from last year’s 49.6 million acres. Notably, winter wheat acreage declined to 34.1 million acres, down 7% from 36.7 million acres the previous year. However, spring wheat acreage reached 11.3 million acres, exceeding both the trade estimate of 10.9 million acres and last year’s 11.2 million acres.
  • Quarterly wheat stocks at 1.087 bb were above the average trade guess of 1.053 bb, and above last year’s 941 mb by 16%. When broken down, on farm stocks were estimated to be 271.9 mb, with off farm stocks at 815.5 mb.
  • Today the USDA also released weekly export sales. The USDA reported an increase of 12.5 mb in wheat export sales for 23/24, along with an increase of 7.8 mb for 24/25. However, last week’s shipments of 15.0 mb were below the 18.2 mb needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 710 mb. So far, wheat sales commitments total 688 mb, up 4% from last year.
  • In other news, the European Commission estimated that EU soft wheat production will decline 4% year-on-year to 120.8 mmt from 125.6 mmt, previously. Wet weather in the fall caused issues for planting, and France has crop conditions well below last year. And while exports are expected to have little change around 31 mmt, stocks may decline from 19.9 to 12.1 mmt.
  • According to the USDA, as of March 26, approximately 17% of the US winter wheat crop is experiencing drought, along with 25% of the spring wheat area. For winter wheat, this is an increase from 12% the week prior, while spring wheat declined from 30% a week ago.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since making a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways with relatively small gains capped by overhead resistance. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market remains oversold on a macro level, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both of these factors could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. In mid-February, the July ’25 Chicago wheat contract broke through the bottom of the long standing 640 – 685 trading range and traded down to the 597 ½low. Prices have rallied 50% back toward the high of that range. While a lot of time remains in which many unforeseen circumstances can unfold to move prices even higher, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally, and these historically good prices, to make an early sale and begin marketing your 2025 SRW crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat posted a bearish reversal on March 25, indicating there is significant resistance above the market near the 50-day moving average. Prices could still challenge the 50 and 100-day moving averages, and the 585 – 620 congestion area if they rebound and close above 567. Otherwise, if they retreat and close below 523 ½, they run the risk of trading down toward the next major support level near 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. As weather becomes a more dominant market mover, we are targeting 670 – 700 versus May ’24 futures to recommend making additional sales. This area represents a modest 20% retracement back toward the 2022 highs.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: There remains considerable resistance in the area between the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. If prices can close above 605 ¼, they could continue towards the congestion range between 610 and 640. Otherwise, if they retreat back below initial support of 575, prices could potentially test the 551 ½ March low.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since last summer, Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis wheat continues to trade sideways with overhead resistance near the 50-day moving average. Initial support remains below the market near the 641 low with more support near 600 if prices fall further. Up top, if the market reverses and closes above the 50-day moving average and 675 – 680 resistance, it could challenge the 700 – 710 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

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3-27 End of Day: Corn and Beans Continue Their Slide Ahead of Tomorrow’s USDA Report

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, March 29, 2024, in Observance of Good Friday

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After initial two-sided trading, late-day technical selling emerged, exacerbating losses, which led to the corn market’s fourth consecutive lower close. The negativity was further fueled by spillover weakness from the soybean complex and anticipation of tomorrow’s USDA report.
  • May soybeans closed near the lower end of a tight 8 ½ cent range, bound by overhead trendline resistance and support just below the market where the 20 and 50-day moving averages converge around 1190. Weakness in soybean oil added pressure to soybeans and Board crush margins, which lost 3 ½ cents in the May contracts.
  • A 2% drop in Malaysian palm oil and lower Chinese soybean oil pressured the bean oil market toward a 0.75 cent loss as it continues to consolidate following its recent runup. Soybean meal closed with a minor $0.80 loss as it continues to trade between its 20 and 50-day moving averages, as lower Brazilian meal export premiums remain an obstacle for US meal demand and any rally potential.
  • The wheat complex closed mostly higher, led by strong performances in Chicago and Minneapolis, while Kansas City futures settled mixed, with gains in the front months outpacing the deferred ones. The complex as a whole saw steady gains throughout the day bouncing back from overnight lows. The rally came as traders likely square positions for tomorrow’s USDA Planting Intentions and Quarterly Grain Stocks report, with little other bullish news to trade.
  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, GRACE-based root zone drought indicators for the US and SA, and the 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, NOAA, and NASA-GRACE scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow 10-cent trading range, fluctuating between 435 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 243,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, particularly if the March Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports reveal bearish surprises, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw additional long liquidation before the USDA Planting Intentions and Grain Stocks report on Thursday. May futures settled their lowest price level in three weeks.
  • The correction in the corn market is tied to the market correcting from its recent over-bought technical condition as a product of the latest rally in corn.
  • For Thursday’s USDA report, expectations are for 2024 corn acres to be near 91.78 million. This would be down from the 94.64 million acres planted last year. Estimated grain stocks for Thursday’s report are expected to reach 8.427 billion bushels, up 14% from last year and a 5-year high for March 1.
  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Corn sales are trending ahead of pace and supporting corn prices. Expectations are for new sales to range from 800,000 – 1.3 mmt for old crop corn. Last week, export sales totaled 1.185 mmt.
  • Despite the futures market weakness, cash corn basis has remained firmer as end users are “bidding up” looking for supplies in some markets.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can close above 445, they could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

May soybeans have rallied nearly 100 cents from the February 29 low to the March 21 high. Despite the magnitude of this current rally, the Managed Money camp has hardly covered any of their 171,999 record net short position from the week ending March 5. As of the latest week, their net short position was still at 148,339 contracts. Like corn, the continuation of this recent uptrend could rest upon what comes from the USDA in the upcoming March Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports. If bearish, soybean prices could be at risk of retesting the recent lows going into April/May. However, if the reports are bullish, a squeeze could be put on Managed Money, adding more fuel to the upside price recovery.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans finished lower for a second consecutive day, but the May contract has managed to hold above the 50-day moving average. Soybean oil lost over 2.5% and was pressured by a decline in palm oil prices while soybean meal closed only slightly lower.
  • Some of the weakness in soybeans is likely due to anticipation of tomorrow’s Planting Intentions and Grain Stocks report where soybean acres are expected to increase. Soybean acres are estimated to come in at 85.35 million which would be 2 million fewer than were planted last year if realized. Soybean stocks are estimated at 1.828 billion bushels which would compare with 1.687 bb last year.
  • With significant discrepancies between CONAB’s and the USDA’s estimates for Brazilian soybean production, Brazilian consultancy Agroconsult has now increased their estimates to 156.5 mmt citing an expansion of estimated planted area. This estimate is much closer to the USDA’s guess of 157 mmt and brings doubts to CONAB’s guess of 146 mmt.
  • While export demand has been weak due to cheaper Brazilian soybeans, domestic demand has been firm. Cash crush margins in Illinois, have slipped around 21 cents since last week but remain profitable enough to keep processors purchasing cash beans.

Above: Although May soybeans rejected a rally through the March 14 high of 1217 ½, they could still test the January high of 1247 ½ if downside support near 1175 continues to hold and if prices close above 1226 ¾. If not, the market runs the risk of retreating down toward the 1130 – 1140 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat prices closed mostly higher, particularly in Chicago and Minneapolis futures, although Kansas City futures settled mixed. These gains occurred in the absence of significant bullish news and despite pressure from the US Dollar Index, which remained near its recent high above the 104 level. Paris milling wheat also closed mixed, with the May contract marking its third consecutive session lower, while September and December futures experienced slight gains.
  • The average pre-report estimate for all wheat acreage on tomorrow’s USDA report stands at 47.7 million acres, marking a decline from last year’s 49.6 million acres. Additionally, quarterly grain stocks are expected to reach 1.053 billion bushels compared to 941 million bushels a year ago. Despite the projected decrease in acreage compared to last year, it remains possible that trendline yields and weak demand could still result in a higher carryout number for the 24/25 season.
  • March wheat exports out of Russia could hit a record 5 mmt. While their FOB export values have increased to $206/mt, they remain well below the $225/mt US SRW wheat values, and may limit upside movement for US wheat.
  • As of March 23, the European Commission reported that EU soft wheat exports for the season, which began on July 1, amounted to 22.8 million metric tons (mmt). This reflects a 2% decrease compared to the previous year’s figure of 23.2 mmt. Leading the list of importers was Morocco, with 3.32 mmt, followed by Nigeria and Algeria.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the early December runup, Chicago wheat has suffered in a lower trend while going on to make new contract lows. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. In mid-February, the July ’25 Chicago wheat contract broke through the bottom of the long standing 640 – 685 trading range and traded down to the 597 ½low. Prices have rallied 50% back toward the high of that range. While a lot of time remains in which many unforeseen circumstances can unfold to move prices even higher, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally, and these historically good prices, to make an early sale and begin marketing your 2025 SRW crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat posted a bearish reversal on March 25, indicating there is significant resistance above the market near the 50-day moving average. Prices could still challenge the 50 and 100-day moving averages, and the 585 – 620 congestion area if they rebound and close above 567. Otherwise, if they retreat and close below 523 ½, they run the risk of trading down toward the next major support level near 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. As weather becomes a more dominant market mover, we are targeting 670 – 700 versus May ’24 futures to recommend making additional sales. This area represents a modest 20% retracement back toward the 2022 highs.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The inability of the market to close above the 50-day moving average (dma) suggests considerable resistance in this area, potentially leading to a test of support near the 551 ½ low if initial support near 575 is broken. With substantial support near 551 ½, a breach below this level could lead to a test of 530. However, if prices do manage to close above the 50 dma and the March 10 high of 605 ¼, prices could continue towards the congestion range between 610 and 640.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since last summer, Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis wheat continues to trade sideways with overhead resistance near the 50-day moving average. Initial support remains below the market near the 641 low with more support near 600 if prices fall further. Up top, if the market reverses and closes above the 50-day moving average and 675 – 680 resistance, it could challenge the 700 – 710 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

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3-26 End of Day: Markets Settle Lower as Traders Prepare for Thursday’s USDA Report

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Amid weakness spreading from neighboring markets, May corn futures struggled to trade within a half-cent of yesterday’s high before encountering overhead resistance. Ultimately, they breached both the 20 and 50-day moving averages, settling at their lowest level since March 6th.
  • While still holding support near the 50-day moving average, May soybeans saw choppy trade in a tight 10 ¼-cent range with trendline resistance just overhead as traders continued to square positions ahead of Thursday’s USDA report.
  • Both soybean meal and oil closed lower today, contributing to the decline in soybeans. Soybean oil held at the 100-day moving average and continues to see support from palm oil on talk of lower Indonesian exports and higher demand from India and China, while the high US crush pace and competition from Argentina add upward resistance to meal prices.
  • All three classes of wheat closed lower on the day with bear spreading noted as the front months saw more selling pressure than the deferreds. Weakness likely stemmed from beneficial moisture moving across much of the central US which should help to improve wheat conditions that are already better than last year.
  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the 1 and 2-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26th to the high on March 12th, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow 10-cent trading range, fluctuating between 435 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 243,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, particularly if the March Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports reveal bearish surprises, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The recommendation for now is to hold off on additional sales until May corn recovers back toward the 500 level. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains to market the 2024 crop, we will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending making a sale if Dec ’25 corn closes that gap and trades toward 510.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • It was a tough day in corn markets as prices broke to the bottom of the most recent trading range, and more importantly below support of nearby moving averages. The weak price action and technical picture may have the corn market set up for further selling pressure going into Wednesday’s session.
  • The overall tone in grain markets was weak, and double-digit losses in the wheat market helped pressure corn futures. May futures posted its lowest close since March 6.
  • A strong weather system moved across the Corn Belt bringing beneficial moisture to areas that were lacking. While the rain and snow won’t relieve the overall dry conditions, improvement is likely with spring planting a few weeks away.
  • The grain markets are looking toward Thursday’s USDA Planting Intentions and Grain Stocks report. Expectations are for 2024 corn acres to be near 91.78 million acres of corn. While this would be down from the 94.64 million acres planted last year, early warm temperatures this spring/late winter have the market concerned that the anticipated corn acres could be higher than expected.
  • Estimated grain stocks for Thursday’s report are expected to reach 8.427 billion bushels, up 14% from last year and a 5-year high for March 1.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can close above 445, they could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

May soybeans have rallied nearly 100 cents from the February 29th low to the March 21st high. Despite the magnitude of this current rally, the Managed Money camp has hardly covered any of their 171,999 record net short position from the week ending March 5th. As of the latest week, their net short position was still at 148,339 contracts. Like corn, the continuation of this recent uptrend could rest upon what comes from the USDA in the upcoming March Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports. If bearish, soybean prices could be at risk of retesting the recent lows going into April/May. However, if the reports are bullish, a squeeze could be put on Managed Money, adding more fuel to the upside price recovery.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. The current recommendation is to refrain from making further sales until the market rebounds towards the 1300 level, which represents a modest 30% retracement from the 2022 high.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the upper 1300 range near the 2022 highs going into spring/summer, at which point we would consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended lower today wiping out some of yesterday’s gains but remaining above the 50-day moving average. Rain in the eastern part of the Corn Belt has improved soil moisture levels ahead of planting, and the anticipation of the Planting Intentions and Grain Stocks report showing higher soybean acres has pressed futures lower.
  • Palm oil has rallied significantly over the past few weeks but has begun to slide, which in turn has pressured soybean oil. Bean oil is now well off its lows and currently rangebound and sitting just below the 100-day moving average. Soybean meal ended lower today and will likely face further pressure when the Argentine harvest is complete, and the country has more meal to export.
  • Brazil’s soybean harvest is now called at 70% complete with the key growing state of Mato Grosso reportedly finished. Brazil’s second (safrinha) crop corn plantings are also completed, and there is a slight concern for hot and dry weather. Argentina received too much rain over the past two weeks which could have negatively impacted total production.
  • On Thursday, the USDA will release its US Quarterly Grain Stocks and Acres report. Soybean acres are estimated at 85.35 million acres which would be 2 million fewer than were planted last year if realized. Soybean stocks are estimated at 1.828 billion bushels which would compare with 1.687 bb a year ago.

Above: Although May soybeans rejected a rally through the previous high of 1217 ½, they could still test the January high of 1247 ½ if downside support near 1175 continues to hold and if prices close above 1226 ¾. If not, the market runs the risk of retreating down toward the 1130 – 1140 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • US wheat closed lower across the board with bear spreading noted, primarily in Chicago futures, where the front months settled weaker than the deferreds. This could be attributed to moisture moving across much of the central US, potentially enhancing already favorable wheat conditions that surpass last year’s levels. Interestingly, the market appeared unfazed by concerns of crop damage in southern states, despite projections of single-digit temperatures extending as far south as the Texas panhandle. 
  • Yesterday after hitting the highest level since early February, Paris milling wheat futures reversed course to a lower close. Today they finished the session in the red again, which offered weakness to the US market. And while Russian FOB values have risen about $10 over the past two weeks, they remain very cheap compared to other origins – this may explain some of the weakness.
  • In Thursday’s USDA report, the trade is looking for 47.7 million wheat acres. This would be down from 49.6 ma last year, but stocks are also expected to increase to 1.053 bb versus 941 mb last year. If realized, that would be the highest March 1 wheat stocks total in three years.
  • The European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit forecasts an increase in the EU’s soft wheat yields from 5.82 to 5.91 tonnes per hectare, marking a 2% year-over-year rise. While acknowledging that the crop’s condition is mediocre in many European regions, they anticipate yields coming in above the five-year average.
  • Kazakhstan’s Agriculture Minister, Aidarbek Saparov, anticipates a grain harvest of 13-14 million metric tons (mmt) this year. Wheat plantings are projected to cover a total of 13.3 million hectares, reflecting a 3% decrease from 2023. Notably, last year’s grain production amounted to 16.4 mmt, suggesting that this reduction may necessitate increased imports in the future

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the early December runup, Chicago wheat has suffered in a lower trend while going on to make new contract lows. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, the current recommendation is to hold off on making any additional sales unless the market moves back toward last summer’s highs. At which point, we are prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the remaining July ‘24 590 put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. In mid-February, the July ’25 Chicago wheat contract broke through the bottom of the long standing 640 – 685 trading range and traded down to the 597 ½low. Prices have rallied 50% back toward the high of that range. While a lot of time remains in which many unforeseen circumstances can unfold to move prices even higher, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally, and these historically good prices, to make an early sale and begin marketing your 2025 SRW crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat posted a bearish reversal on March 25, indicating there is significant resistance above the market near the 50-day moving average. Prices could still challenge the 50 and 100-day moving averages, and the 585 – 620 congestion area if they rebound and close above 567. Otherwise, if they retreat and close below 523 ½, they run the risk of trading down toward the next major support level near 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. The current strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward the upper 600s
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. Taking the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position into account, the current strategy for the 2024 crop is to wait for better opportunities and consider recommending additional sales if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-630s.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The inability of the market to close above the 50-day moving average (dma) suggests considerable resistance in this area, potentially leading to a test of support near the 551 ½ low if initial support near 575 is broken. With substantial support near 551 ½, a breach below this level could lead to a test of 530. However, if prices do manage to close above the 50 dma and the March 10 high of 605 ¼, prices could continue towards the congestion range between 610 and 640.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since last summer, Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. From here, the strategy for the 2024 crop is to consider recommending additional sales if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis wheat continues to trade sideways with overhead resistance near the 50-day moving average. Initial support remains below the market near the 641 low with more support near 600 if prices fall further. Up top, if the market reverses and closes above the 50-day moving average and 675 – 680 resistance, it could challenge the 700 – 710 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 2-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

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3-25 End of Day: Soybean Oil Supports Beans; While Corn and Wheat Settle Near Unchanged

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market continues to drift sideways ahead of Thursday’s USDA Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks report. Today, May corn saw a quiet 4 ¼ cent range, while weekly corn export intentions came in as expected, and ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA’s export forecast.
  • May soybeans traded both sides of unchanged in the overnight session before taking off after this morning’s open with support coming from both soybean oil and meal. The 20-day moving average held for all three legs of the soybean complex which supported technical buying off the lows. Malaysian palm oil lent extra support to soybean oil, which saw the largest gains in the complex at 1.38 cents (2.90%.)
  • All three classes of wheat traded both sides of unchanged before settling mixed on the day and well off the day’s highs. Early support came from the forecast of cold weather that could hit the HRW crop as far south as Kansas and Oklahoma, with additional support from the escalation of war and restrictions on a major Russian wheat exporter.
  • To see the updated US 7-day observed precipitation, 7-day precipitation forecast, and the 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

In late February, after languishing in a downtrend that began last October and managed funds posting a record net short position exceeding 340,000 contracts, corn posted a bullish key reversal. Since that time, the market has rallied as the funds covered some of their short positions, though they remain heavily short the market, which could fuel an extended rally as we head into the uncertainty of the spring planting window.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The recommendation for now is to hold off on additional sales until May corn recovers back toward the 500 level. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains to market the 2024 crop, we will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. For now, we aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be spring or summer of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market is still looking for direction as daily trade remains quiet with two-sided trade inside a narrow trading range. May corn moved 4 ¼ cents from high to low during the session. Prices still seem tied to the 440-price level.
  • Managed funds have been moving out of their net short position in the corn market during this recent price rally. Last week’s Commitment of Traders report released on Friday showed that funds were still net short 242,988 contracts, reduced by 12,940 contracts from the previous week. Funds are still holding a historically large net short position given the current fundamental market scenario.
  • Weekly corn export inspections for corn totaled 48.3 mb (1.228 mmt) last week. Total inspections for 23/24 are at 961 mb, up 34% over last year. The USDA is targeting a 26% rise in US corn exports.
  •  A strong weather system is moving through the western and northern Corn Belt, providing a mixture of snow and rain to areas in need. The precipitation should help build some soil moisture levels in those areas to help promote spring planting.
  • The grain markets may stay choppy going into Thursday’s USDA Planting Intentions and Grain Stocks report. With the market holding short positions, additional position squaring could bring some volatility as the market moves closer to Thursday’s report.

Above: The corn market continues to battle the 50-day moving average and the 435 – 445 resistance area. If it can close above 445, the market could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If prices fall back, and close below 421, then they may slide to test downside support between 400 and 410.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 12,940 contracts between March 13 – 19 , bringing their total position to a net short 242,988 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since old crop soybeans broke out of the 1290 – 1400 range in January, prices appear to have made a near term low. Managed funds have also established a record net short position for this time of year, and world carryout has dropped according to the USDA. While new lows could still be made, US planting is not far off, and the funds current short position could fuel an extended short covering rally on a smaller South American crop, lower world soybean carryout, and potential US weather concerns.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. The current recommendation is to refrain from making further sales until the market rebounds towards the 1300 level, which represents a modest 30% retracement from the 2022 high.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the upper 1300 range near the 2022 highs going into spring/summer, at which point we would consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher to start the week despite weakness in both corn and wheat. Prices were lower overnight but rallied into the close, closing just off the high of the day and just below yesterday’s high. Main support came from higher soybean oil which was helped by Malaysian palm oil, while soybean meal closed higher but not by as much.
  • In Brazil, the soybean harvest is nearly complete with key growing state Mato Grosso finished and the rest of the country at 70% done. The USDA attaché in Brazil has lowered its estimates for Brazilian production in 23/24 to 152.6 mmt from 157.5 mmt. This change will likely be included in the USDA’s next WASDE report.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 6,798 contracts of their net short position reducing it to 148,399 contracts. Similar to corn, the short covering hasn’t had a very bullish effect on prices as farmer selling has ramped up to take advantage of any rallies.
  • Last Friday, Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut its estimates for the 23/24 corn crop but kept soybean production unchanged at 52.5 mmt. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal, so any issues in the growing season could be friendly to meal.

Above: Although May soybeans rejected a rally through the previous high of 1217 ½, they could still test the January high of 1247 ½ if downside support near 1175 continues to hold and if prices close above 1226 ¾. If not, the market runs the risk of retreating down toward the 1130 – 1140 support area.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 6,798 contracts between March 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 148,399 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a mostly higher close while still closing off session highs. Early support came from a lower US Dollar Index, as well as the forecast of a cold snap this week that could hit as far south as Kansas and Oklahoma. This is raising concern that there will be some damage to the HRW crop as it exits dormancy.
  • Russian attacks on Odesa power plants gave wheat a boost today, with concern that port operations would be disrupted. Additionally, the second largest Russian wheat exporter was forced to keep vessels in port for not obtaining the necessary phytosanitary permits.
  • Weekly wheat inspections were on the softer side at 11.6 mb and brought total 23/24 export inspections to 521 mb. That is down 15% from last year and inspections and behind the USDA’s estimated pace. 
  • According to a Bloomberg survey, the average pre-report estimate for wheat acreage in this week’s USDA report is 47.3 million, which compares to 49.6 ma last year. Additionally, quarterly wheat stocks are projected to be up 11.3% at 1.05 bb which compares to 941 mb last year.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the early December runup, Chicago wheat has suffered in a lower trend while going on to make new contract lows. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, the current recommendation is to hold off on making any additional sales unless the market moves back toward last summer’s highs. At which point, we are prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the remaining July ‘24 590 put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. In mid-February, the July ’25 Chicago wheat contract broke through the bottom of the long standing 640 – 685 trading range and traded down to the 597 ½low. Prices have rallied 50% back toward the high of that range. While a lot of time remains in which many unforeseen circumstances can unfold to move prices even higher, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally, and these historically good prices, to make an early sale and begin marketing your 2025 SRW crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat posted a bearish reversal on March 25, indicating there is significant resistance above the market near the 50-day moving average. Prices could still challenge the 50 and 100-day moving averages and the 585 – 620 congestion area if they rebound and close above 567. Otherwise, if they retreat and close below 523 ½, the next level of major support may come in around 488.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,700 contracts between March 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 80,570 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. The current strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward the upper 600s
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. Taking the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position into account, the current strategy for the 2024 crop is to wait for better opportunities and consider recommending additional sales if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-630s.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The inability of the market to close above the 50-day moving average (dma) suggests considerable resistance in this area, potentially leading to a test of support near the 551 ½ low if initial support near 575 is broken. However, if prices do manage to close above the 50 dma and the March 10 high of 605 ¼, there’s a possibility of a rally towards the congestion range between 610 and 640. Although with substantial support around 551 ½, a breach below this level could lead to a test of 530.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,310 contracts between March 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 37,857 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since last summer, Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. From here, the strategy for the 2024 crop is to consider recommending additional sales if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis wheat continues to trade in a congestion pattern following the retreat from overhead resistance near the 50-day moving average. Initial support below the market remains near the recent low of 641, with support near 600 if prices fall further. Overhead, if the market reverses and closes above 675 – 680 resistance, they could challenge the 700 – 710 area.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,032 contracts between March 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 22,733 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

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3-22 End of Day: Beans End Up Lower on the Week as Corn and Wheat Stage Recoveries

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Another announced corn sale to Mexico and a solid recovery in wheat wasn’t enough for the corn market to overcome the weakness in the soybean pit. May corn futures struggle to stray from the 440 level as they close the week in a relatively tight consolidation range.
  • Yesterday’s short covering in the soybean market was met with both technical and farmer selling, and today, the technical selling intensified once prices dropped below yesterday’s lows. Weakness from soybean meal and oil contributed to the declines.
  • Soybean meal and oil both ended the day in the red today, with the lingering effects of large February crush supplies looming, along with lower palm oil and weakening renewable diesel margins weighing on bean oil. May Board crush margins also came under pressure, losing 4 ¾ cents.
  • The wheat complex had a wild ride which tested the lows of this week’s consolidation ranges for all three classes before buyers emerged. Technical buying and higher Matif wheat futures helped all three classes closed near the top end, with Chicago and KC posting 20-cent ranges, while Minneapolis saw a 13-cent range.  
  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the 2-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

In late February, after languishing in a downtrend that began last October and managed funds posting a record net short position exceeding 340,000 contracts, corn posted a bullish key reversal. Since that time, the market has rallied as the funds covered some of their short positions, though they remain heavily short the market, which could fuel an extended rally as we head into the uncertainty of the spring planting window.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The recommendation for now is to hold off on additional sales until May corn recovers back toward the 500 level. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains to market the 2024 crop, we will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. For now, we aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be spring or summer of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Despite an announced corn sale and strength in the wheat market, the selling pressure in the soybean market limited upside potential in the corn futures on Friday. The May contract finished softer, still tied to the 440 level on the charts. For the week, May futures did finish 2 ½ cents higher.
  • May corn futures remain in a tight overall trading range, as they continue to consolidate. Since March 7th, May corn futures have been tied to the 440 price level with closes ranging from as high as 441 ¾ to a low of 433 during that time frame.
  • The USDA announced a flash sale on corn to Mexico. Mexico continues to be a strong buyer of US corn, purchasing another 10.4 mb (263,000 mt), split with 173,000 mt of old crop and 90,000 mt for the 24/25 marketing year.
  • The Buenos Aires Gran exchange lowered their projection for the Argentina corn crop to 54 mmt, down 2.5 mmt from their last forecast. The reduction was due to dry weather in February and the impact of plant pathogens. Even with the reduction, this will be the largest projected corn crop in Argentina since 2018-19.
  • The CFTC will release the next Commitment of Traders report this afternoon. Managed money has been exiting their overall short position in recent weeks with the recent price strength. Last week, managed funds held a net short position of 255,982 contracts, up nearly 84,000 contracts for the low three weeks ago.

Above: The corn market continues to battle the 50-day moving average and the 435 – 445 resistance area. If it can close above 445, the market could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If prices fall back, and close below 421, then they may slide to test downside support between 400 and 410.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since old crop soybeans broke out of the 1290 – 1400 range in January, prices appear to have made a near term low. Managed funds have also established a record net short position for this time of year, and world carryout has dropped according to the USDA. While new lows could still be made, US planting is not far off, and the funds current short position could fuel an extended short covering rally on a smaller South American crop, lower world soybean carryout, and potential US weather concerns.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. The current recommendation is to refrain from making further sales until the market rebounds towards the 1300 level, which represents a modest 30% retracement from the 2022 high.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the upper 1300 range near the 2022 highs going into spring/summer, at which point we would consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower to finish out the week after showing promise earlier on by rallying above the 50-day moving average. Poor export sales and the ongoing Brazilian soybean harvest has made sustaining rallies difficult. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.
  • For the week, May soybeans lost 5 ¾ cents, November soybeans lost 3 ¾ cents, May soybean meal gained $4.40, and May soybean oil lost 1.78 cents. Funds were likely exiting some of their short position this week, but the short covering was met by increased farmer selling.
  • The Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be 70% complete by this weekend and some work could be delayed due to rain. In Argentina, soybean crop ratings came in with 31% rated good to excellent and 16% rated poor to very poor. Argentinian crop conditions could deteriorate further if the country continues to receive too much rain.
  • Yesterday afternoon, Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut its estimates for the 23/24 corn crop but kept soybean production unchanged at 52.5 mmt. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal, so any issues in the growing season could be friendly to meal.

Above: Although May soybeans rejected a rally through the previous high of 1217 ½, they could still test the January high of 1247 ½ if downside support near 1175 continues to hold and if prices close above 1226 ¾. If not, the market runs the risk of retreating down toward the 1130 – 1140 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat pushed higher again today with a positive close for all three US classes. Support came from Paris milling wheat futures which rallied sharply and finished near session highs, gaining 5.75 to 7.50 Euros per metric ton. The higher close for US wheat also came despite the US Dollar rising again today to the highest level since mid-February.
  • May Chicago wheat broke through technical resistance around the 21-day moving average, which may allow some room to run before the next level of resistance around the 40 and 50-day moving averages. Some of today’s firmness in wheat may also be tied to the EU imposing tariffs on Russian grain imports.
  • Egypt has confirmed that future purchases of wheat will be through tenders, and no longer through private negotiations. The use of private deals began a few years ago, likely due to supply disruptions caused by the Ukraine war. It is unclear if this change is a temporary measure in which they will return to private transactions again, or if this is a permanent.
  • According to the USDA, as of March 19, an estimated 12% of the US winter wheat crop is experiencing drought. This represents a 2% improvement from 14% the week prior. As for spring wheat, the area in drought remained steady at an estimated 30% for the same timeframe.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the early December runup, Chicago wheat has suffered in a lower trend while going on to make new contract lows. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, the current recommendation is to hold off on making any additional sales unless the market moves back toward last summer’s highs. At which point, we are prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the remaining July ‘24 590 put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further.
  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. In mid-February, the July ’25 Chicago wheat contract broke through the bottom of the long standing 640 – 685 trading range and traded down to the 597 ½low. Prices have now rallied 50% back toward the high of the range. While a lot of time remains in which many unforeseen circumstances can unfold to move prices even higher, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally, and these historically good prices, to make an early sale and begin marketing your 2025 SRW crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat continues to trade in a congestion pattern bound by 556 on the topside, and 523 ½ on the bottom. If prices regain their bullish footing, and close above 556, they could challenge the 50 and 100-day moving averages that coincide with the 585 – 620 congestion area. Otherwise, if they retreat and close below 523 ½, the next level of major support may come in around 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. The current strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward the upper 600s
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. Taking the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position into account, the current strategy for the 2024 crop is to wait for better opportunities and consider recommending additional sales if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-630s.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The inability of the market to surpass the 50-day moving average suggests considerable resistance in this area, potentially leading to a test of support near the 551 ½ low. However, if prices reverse course and manage to close above the 50-day moving average, there’s a possibility of a rally towards the congestion range between 610 and 640. Although there seems to be substantial support around 551 ½, a breach below this level could lead to a test of 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since last summer, Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. From here, the strategy for the 2024 crop is to consider recommending additional sales if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis wheat continues to trade in a congestion pattern following the retreat from overhead resistance near the 50-day moving average. Initial support below the market remains near the recent low of 641, with support near 600 if prices fall further. Overhead, if the market reverses and closes above 675 – 680 resistance, they could challenge the 700 – 710 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center