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5-28 End of Day: Markets Reverse from Earlier Highs with Corn and Beans lower; Wheat Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market initially showed early strength, which faded as the wheat market declined. Selling pressure increased further due to weakness in soybeans. Although corn opened strong, it closed near the bottom of its range by the end of the day, resulting in a bearish reversal on the daily chart.

  • Soybeans opened strong in the overnight session, but they closed with a bearish reversal due to carryover weakness from sharply lower soybean meal, which also ended with a bearish reversal after hitting a new recent high.

  • The wheat complex saw strong gains in the overnight session on renewed concern regarding wheat production in the Black Sea region as IKAR reduced Russia’s wheat crop another 2 mmt. Despite this, all three classes settled well off session highs, with weakness from lower Matif wheat.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, well as the US 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of the CPC and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed our Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although the technical picture could look better, weather remains a dominant factor and could still move prices back higher if conditions deteriorate. Therefore, we are currently targeting the 480 – 520 range versus July ’24 to make what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 467 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Disappointing price action started the trading week in the corn market as prices faded off overnight highs to finish the day lower overall. On the charts, corn futures posted a reversal day by trading past Friday’s high and low prices and settling in the bottom of the trading range for the day. The negative price action at the close could leave the door open for follow-through selling going into Wednesday.

  • Corn futures are followers to other grains. Wheat futures had a strong overnight session on continued fears of Russian dryness affecting the wheat crop, but as prices faded, corn futures slipped during the session. Soybean futures saw strong selling pressure during the session, and that limited the potential for gains in the corn market on Tuesday.

  • The USDA will release the latest round of crop planting progress this afternoon. Expectations are for corn planting to advance by 13% to 83% complete. This would keep corn planting close to the 5-year average for this date. While the last 10-15% of planting may be difficult due to wet weather, the market may be shifting its focus away from planting and looking to summer weather and crop development.

  • Weekly export inspections for corn remain strong. Last week, US exporters shipped 42.4 mb (1.077 mmt) of corn last week. This brings total inspections in 23/24 up to 1.429 bb, up 26% from last year.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn to Mexico this morning. Mexico purchased 8.5 mb (215,000 mt) of corn with the total split between marketing years. Of the total, 165,000 mt is for the 23/24 marketing year and 50,000 mt is for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year.

Above: The corn market did an about face and rallied higher on May 20 following four consecutive lower closes and finding support near 452. Should prices continue higher, heavy resistance remains overhead near the recent high of 474 ½. Should the market close below 452, further support may come in towards 445 – 440.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 49,991 contracts between May 15 – 21, bringing their total position to a net short 121,162 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity, while also targeting the 1280 – 1320 range, a modest retracement back to the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting a close at or above 1253 after June 1 to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower to start the week as they followed the sharp selloff in soybean meal in which the July contract posted a loss of 2.56%. Soybeans had been trading higher overnight but began fading this morning and continued the downward trend. Soybean oil was higher by 1.27% in the July contract.

  • With the wet weather delaying corn plantings, there is some concern that soybean plantings may increase past the USDA’s initial estimate of 86.5 million acres. The Midwest received significant rains last week and there are more in the forecast for this week.

  • Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress report in which analysts are estimating that soybean plantings will be 67% complete. This would be in line with the 5-year average and would compare with 52% last week and 83% at this time a year ago.

  • Today’s weekly export inspections showed an increase for soybean inspections totaling 7.8 mb for the week ending May 23. This was slightly above last week but still puts total inspections for 23/24 down 18% from the previous year at 1.469 bb.

Above: On May 23, July soybeans traded through the May 7 high but closed lower, posting a bearish reversal. Support below the market remains near the 1200 level with both the 50 and 100-day moving averages just below that, around 1195. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 23 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 15,609 contracts between May 15 – 21, bringing their total position to a net short 26,426 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with gains in all three US classes, led by the Kansas City futures, with support coming from global concerns about production in the Black Sea region and parts of Europe. However, the wheat complex closed well off session highs, with pressure coming from lower Paris milling wheat futures and the US Dollar strengthening throughout the session.

  • IKAR reportedly lowered their estimate of Russian wheat production by another 2 mmt to 81.5 mmt. Their estimate is now 11.5 mmt below where it was a year ago. For reference, the USDA is using an 88 mmt figure. Additionally, the European Grain Union lowered their European wheat production forecast by about 3 mmt to 19.2 mmt due to recent drought conditions.

  • The Ukrainian Grain Association reduced their 2024 grain outlook for Ukraine from 76.1 mmt to 74.6 mmt. This is said to be a result of reductions to the planted area as well as unfavorable prices, logistics issues, and dryness during May in the south and eastern parts of the nation. Of that total 19.1 mmt of wheat is forecasted to be harvested, versus 22 mmt in 2023.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 14.7 mb bring the total 23/24 inspections to 672 mb, which is down 7% from last year. With the USDA estimating 720 mb of wheat exports, inspections for 23/24 are running behind the USDA’s estimated pace.

  • Short term weather in the US southern Plains may cause some early harvest delays with the forecast looking wet. However, areas to the north will also get this rain that will help to finish the crop.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop. July ’24 Chicago wheat is now about 160 cents from the March low, as world production concerns have driven Managed funds to cover much of their extensive short positions. With July ’24 Chicago wheat having retraced 62% of its range back toward the July 2023 contract high and trading near 700 psychological resistance, we recommend taking advantage of these higher prices to make another sale on your estimated 2024 SRW wheat production.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy July ‘25 860 and 1020 Chicago wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop for approximately 73 cents plus commission and fees.  Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 697 high in July ’24 Chicago wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales against the 2024 crop, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: After setting a 720 high and closing lower on May 28, July Chicago could be set up to test nearby downside support near 650. If support holds and prices close above 720, they could be on track to test the 770 – 777 resistance area. Otherwise, further support may be found near 628.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,658 contracts between May 15 – 21, bringing their total position to a net short 24,593 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2023 HRW wheat crop. Since the middle of April, July ’24 KC wheat has rallied in excess of 150 cents to a high of 719 ¼, mostly on dryness in the US HRW growing areas and concerns regarding Russia’s wheat crop. However, the bearish reversal from Wednesday’s 719 ¼ high, suggests that prices may begin to move lower. Also, considering that time is getting limited to market the remainder of this crop, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2023 HRW production in what will likely be our last sales recommendation for this crop year.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to buy July ‘25 860 and 1020 KC wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop for 70 cents plus commission and fees. Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 719 ¼ high in July ’24 KC wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales further against the 2024 crop at higher prices, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: May 28, July ’24 gapped higher and closed below its open in a bearish reversal after piercing the 720 – 754 congestion area. For now, resistance remains just overhead between 746 and 754, a close above which could put the market on track towards 780. If prices retreat, initial support may come in near 689, with further support between 660 and 646.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 503 contracts between May 15 – 21, bringing their total position to a net short 16,764 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2023 Spring wheat crop. Since our last sales recommendation for the 2023 spring wheat crop, prices rallied almost 31 cents to today’s new recent high of 767 ¾ in the July ‘24 contract. After posting that high, prices dropped significantly and closed in a bearish reversal, suggesting exhaustive buying and a potential change to a lower trend. Also, considering that time is getting limited to market the remainder of this crop, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2023 spring wheat production in what will likely be our last sales recommendation for this crop year.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to buy July ‘25 860 and 1020 KC wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop for 70 cents plus commission and fees. Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 719 ¼ high in July ’24 KC wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales further against the 2024 crop at higher prices, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further. The KC wheat market has a high correlation with Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, and Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ’25 KC Wheat calls in lieu of Minneapolis calls due to the significantly higher liquidity levels in the KC wheat market versus that of the Minneapolis wheat market.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After gapping higher and trading to a 767 ¾ high on May 28, July ’24 closed below its open price creating a bearish reversal. Overhead resistance remains between the 767 ¾ high and 790, a close above which could allow prices to test the 837 level. A slide lower could run into support near 729 and again between 710 and 697.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,406 contracts between May 15 – 21, bringing their total position to a net long 4,179 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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5-24 End of Day: Markets Mostly Higher as Traders Prep for the Long Holiday Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Monday, May 27, in Observance of Memorial Day

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover strength from higher wheat and soybeans lent support to the corn market which was dominated by choppy two-sided trade and position squaring ahead of the long Memorial Day weekend.

  • A wet forecast and sharply higher soybean meal added support to the soybean market which continued to consolidate for the fourth day in a row. Bull spreading was noted this week as the front months gained on the deferred.

  • The slower crush pace has been tightening cash meal supplies which continues to support meal as the market awaits fresh supplies from Argentina. Meanwhile, weaker palm oil and world veg oil prices continue to weigh on soybean oil.

  • Concerns regarding wheat growing conditions in the Black Sea region and western Europe, and the dryness in the US southwestern Plains, continue to drive the rally in KC and Minneapolis wheat, while July Chicago struggles with resistance in the 700 area.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, well as the US 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of the CPC and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed our Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although the technical picture could look better, weather remains a dominant factor and could still move prices back higher if conditions deteriorate. Therefore, we are currently targeting the 480 – 520 range versus July ’24 to make what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 467 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market ended the week with choppy trade, before settling firmer on the day. Trade reflected movements in the wheat market and position squaring with June options expiration and the 3-day Memorial Day weekend.

  • The July corn futures finished the week 12 ¼ cents higher but is still under the influence of the weekly bearish reversal on the charts established last week. Though prices were higher, this was a week of consolidation off last week’s trade.

  • The International Grain Council adjusted their global corn production forecast for the 24/25 production year. The IGC reduced corn production by 10 mmt with reductions in Argentina’s corn crop. This leaves global production forecasted at 2.312 billion mt, still up 1% year over year.

  • Rainfall moved across the western Corn Belt, and key production areas in that region remain wet and will limit planting pace this week. The area of Northwestern IA and Southwestern Minnesota is experiencing one of the wettest April/May time frames in over 100 years.

  • US corn has become very competitive on the global export market. This price competitiveness has the market looking at the prospects of importers looking to buy US corn. The US should stay very competitive in global corn exports into July before global competition will likely increase.

Above: The corn market did an about face and rallied higher on May 20 following four consecutive lower closes and finding support near 452. Should prices continue higher, heavy resistance remains overhead near the recent high of 474 ½. Should the market close below 452, further support may come in towards 445 – 440.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity, while also targeting the 1280 – 1320 range, a modest retracement back to the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting a close at or above 1253 after June 1 to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher with support from a strong close in soybean meal and more wet weather in the forecast that could continue to delay planting. Soybean meal gained 2.60% in the July contract, while soybean oil closed lower with the July contract down 0.53% today.

  • For the week, July soybeans gained an even 20 cents finishing at 1248, November gained 16 ¼ cents at 1219 ½, July soybean meal gained $17.70 at $386.50, and July soybean oil lost 0.32 cents at 44.95 cents. Soybean meal was the clear leader this week as weather issues in South America raised concerns over how much soybean meal Argentina would be able to export.

  • In the state of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil, rainfall has become less frequent and much of the flooding has receded which has given farmers the opportunity to resume harvest. The state has now harvested 91% of its soybean area, which is up from 85% last week but compares to the historical average of 97%.

  • Another source of support is that US soybeans are now more competitive compared to Brazil and Argentina for Chinese purchases, as Brazilian basis levels move higher. China has purchased two cargoes of US soybeans, and it is rumored that they may have purchased more.

Above: On May 23, July soybeans traded through the May 7 high but closed lower, posting a bearish reversal. Support below the market remains near the 1200 level with both the 50 and 100-day moving averages just below that, around 1195. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 23 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed higher across the board, except for July and September Chicago, which posted losses of less than a penny each. Kansas City wheat, on the other hand, led the way to the upside with double digit gains in the front months. Notably, the seven dollar area for Chicago wheat appears to still hold as strong resistance for now.

  • Ukraine is said to have attacked a Russian military target last night in Crimea. So far, the market seems relatively unfazed by this news. But, if there are additional attacks on Russian port infrastructure, it could add some war premium back to the wheat market.

  • Argentina’s wheat belt is anticipated to yield 41% more wheat in the 24/25 season compared to 23/24. This, according to the Bahia Blanca Grain Exchange, covers the provinces of Buenos Aires and La Pampa. Production in that region is estimated to reach 4.7 mmt, with acreage up 7% year over year. Yields are expected to rise 11% year over year due to much improved soil moisture and anticipated good weather.

  • Managed funds are said to have flipped their net short wheat position to now be net long both Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures combined. They are also said to be long Matif wheat futures. This would indicate that they see more potential upside movement for the wheat market, which could be due to the recent declines to crop conditions in the Black Sea region.

  • The potential for a Canadian railway strike could have effects here in the US. Rail workers were originally set to strike on May 22, but the Canadian government intervened, delaying the strike. According to the USDA, Canada was the destination of $28.2 billion of ag goods in 2023. If it does occur, it may affect not only trade in the US, but producers and consumers alike.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop. July ’24 Chicago wheat is now about 160 cents from the March low, as world production concerns have driven Managed funds to cover much of their extensive short positions. With July ’24 Chicago wheat having retraced 62% of its range back toward the July 2023 contract high and trading near 700 psychological resistance, we recommend taking advantage of these higher prices to make another sale on your estimated 2024 SRW wheat production.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy July ‘25 860 and 1020 Chicago wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop for approximately 73 cents plus commission and fees.  Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 697 high in July ’24 Chicago wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales against the 2024 crop, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: After setting a 716 ¾ high and closing lower on May 22, July Chicago could be set up to test nearby downside support near 650. If support holds and prices close above 716 ¾, they could be on track to test the 770 – 777 resistance area. Otherwise, further support may be found near 628.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2023 HRW wheat crop. Since the middle of April, July ’24 KC wheat has rallied in excess of 150 cents to a high of 719 ¼, mostly on dryness in the US HRW growing areas and concerns regarding Russia’s wheat crop. However, the bearish reversal from Wednesday’s 719 ¼ high, suggests that prices may begin to move lower. Also, considering that time is getting limited to market the remainder of this crop, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2023 HRW production in what will likely be our last sales recommendation for this crop year.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ‘25 860 and 1020 KC wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop for 70 cents plus commission and fees.  Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 719 ¼ high in July ’24 KC wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales further against the 2024 crop at higher prices, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: May 22, July ’24 printed a fresh high of 719 ¼ and posted a bearish reversal, which the market has rejected so far. A close above 719 ¼ could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, initial support could be found near 690 with further support between 660 and 646, and again near 623.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Following the recent breakout to the upside and the subsequent rally off the April lows, we recommended making two separate sales to take advantage of the elevated prices. Considering the increased volatility in the market we are now targeting the 760 – 790 range in July ‘24 for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRS crop year.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ‘25 860 and 1020 KC wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 Spring wheat crop for 70 cents plus commission and fees. Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 719 ¼ high in July ’24 KC wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales further against the 2024 crop at higher prices, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further. The KC wheat market has a high correlation with Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, and Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ’25 KC Wheat calls in lieu of Minneapolis calls due to the significantly higher liquidity levels in the KC wheat market versus that of the Minneapolis wheat market.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After reaching a peak of 751 ½ on May 22 and posting a bearish reversal, the July ’24 contract held support around 743. Should this support area hold and prices close above the recent 751 ½ high, they could be on track to test the 760 – 790 area. Otherwise, a close below 743 could put the market on course toward the 710 support area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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5-23 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Higher, Soybeans Lower on Thursday

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Monday, May 27, in Observance of Memorial Day

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures held onto gains Thursday after, yet again, strong export sales. Moisture is forecast to return to much of the Corn Belt over the next seven days which may limit the last leg of planting progress in some areas that have struggled to get planted all spring.

  • After testing their early May highs this morning, soybean futures moved lower into the afternoon following poor weekly export sales. Lower closes in both front month soybean meal and oil added pressure as well.

  • After trading in a large daily range, higher and lower, all three wheat classes managed to close higher on the day despite a higher US Dollar and lower Matiff wheat prices.

  • To see the updated US drought monitor and four-week drought monitor change map as well as the US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of the UNL and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed our Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although the technical picture could look better, weather remains a dominant factor and could still move prices back higher if conditions deteriorate. Therefore, we are currently targeting the 480 – 520 range versus July ’24 to make what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 467 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures held on to gains on Thursday. The prospects of improved demand and stability in the wheat market helped support corn futures. For the second consecutive session, bull spreading, buying front month contracts versus deferred futures, was noted on the session.

  • US corn has become very competitive on the global export market. This price competitiveness has the market looking at the prospects of importers looking to buy US corn. The US should stay very competitive in global corn exports into July before global competition will likely increase.

  • The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning for May 10-16.  USDA reported new sales of 911,200 MT for old crop and 305,000 MT for new crop. This total was within analysts’ expectations. 

  • Weather forecasts and planting pace will still be a focus for the market. Recent rainfall in the western Corn Belt has limited progress this week, and another system is forecasted to move through going into the weekend. Longer range forecasts are looking at a dry period going into early June before the pattern turns wetter again. With this forecast, finishing the last portion of corn planting may be difficult as insurance dates are right around the corner.

Above: The corn market did an about face and rallied higher on May 20 following four consecutive lower closes and finding support near 452. Should prices continue higher, heavy resistance remains overhead near the recent high of 474 ½. Should the market close below 452, further support may come in towards 445 – 440.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity, while also targeting the 1280 – 1320 range, a modest retracement back to the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting a close at or above 1253 after June 1 to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after reversing from highs earlier this morning following a disappointing export sales report. The majority of losses were in the front months while deferred contracts were only down by 2 cents. Soybean meal was down in the front months but higher in deferred months, while soybean oil was lower across the board.

  • Today’s export sales report showed the USDA reporting an increase of 10.3 million bushels of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 2.4 mb for 24/25. This was up 5% from the previous week but down 15% from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 9.5 mb were below the 12.4 needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate. This was a marketing year low and was down 42% from the previous week. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Indonesia.

  • Another source of support is that US soybeans are now competitive compared to Brazil and Argentina for Chinese purchases as Brazilian basis levels move higher. China has purchased two cargoes of US soybeans, and it is rumored that they may have purchased more.

  • Weather forecasts remain wet through the end of the week which should keep planting progress slow but should dry out at some point next week. Planting pace for soybeans is above the 5-year average, there are still a large number of acres yet to be planted.

Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a two-sided trade, wheat closed higher in all three US classes. This comes despite a lower close for Matif wheat futures and a rise in the US Dollar Index. Support may have come from news that the International Grains Council reduced their world wheat production estimate for 24/25 by 3 mmt to 795 mmt. For reference, the USDA is using a figure of 798 mmt.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 0.7 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 8.3 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 7.2 mb fell below the 16.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA export goal of 720 mb. Total export shipments at 651 mb for 23/24 are up 2% from last year.

  • According to the USDA as of May 21, 25% of the US winter wheat area is experiencing drought conditions; this is unchanged from the previous week. Additionally, just 3% of spring wheat acres are said to be in drought, a massive drop from last week’s 14%.

  • Day two on the Illinois wheat crop tour came up with an average yield of 105 bpa, up from 97 bpa last year. The USDA has an initial forecast for Illinois at 83 bpa, which would be down from the record 87 bpa last year.

  • Argentina is expected to remain mostly dry, but cold into next week. Northeastern areas may get some rains later in the week, but with the cold comes the risk of frost. This is causing some concern regarding winter wheat planting, which is just beginning, as well as establishment of the crop.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop. July ’24 Chicago wheat is now about 160 cents from the March low, as world production concerns have driven Managed funds to cover much of their extensive short positions. With July ’24 Chicago wheat having retraced 62% of its range back toward the July 2023 contract high and trading near 700 psychological resistance, we recommend taking advantage of these higher prices to make another sale on your estimated 2024 SRW wheat production.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy July ‘25 860 and 1020 Chicago wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop for approximately 73 cents plus commission and fees.  Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 697 high in July ’24 Chicago wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales against the 2024 crop, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: After setting a 716 ¾ high and closing lower on May 22, July Chicago could be set up to test nearby downside support near 650. If support holds and prices close above 716 ¾, they could be on track to test the 770 – 777 resistance area. Otherwise, further support may be found near 628.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2023 HRW wheat crop. Since the middle of April, July ’24 KC wheat has rallied in excess of 150 cents to a high of 719 ¼, mostly on dryness in the US HRW growing areas and concerns regarding Russia’s wheat crop. However, the bearish reversal from Wednesday’s 719 ¼ high, suggests that prices may begin to move lower. Also, considering that time is getting limited to market the remainder of this crop, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2023 HRW production in what will likely be our last sales recommendation for this crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month-long 552–605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short-lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and crop concerns have developed worldwide, if July ’24 KC closes above the recent 719 ¼ high, we would recommend buying upside calls in anticipation of a potential extended rally to help protect previous sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. That said, we also revised our target range to 820 – 840 to make additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found between 660 and 646, and again near 623.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Following the recent breakout to the upside and the subsequent rally off the April lows, we recommended making two separate sales to take advantage of the elevated prices. Considering the increased volatility in the market we are now targeting the 760 – 790 range in July ‘24 for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRS crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider has made two separate sales recommendations to take advantage of the recent rally and build a solid weighted average price for this year’s crop. Moving forward, our current Plan A is to try and let the market run for now. Should the market slide back down, our current Plan B is a downside stop of 692. While the market stays above 692, it is our contention that the uptrend remains intact. However, if Sept ’24 closes below 692 support, upside momentum may be waning, and the trend could be turning down. Therefore, a close below 692 support would trigger an additional sale immediately. Moreover, considering that crop concerns have risen worldwide, if July ’24 KC closes above its recent 710 high, we would recommend buying upside KC calls (for their greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat) in anticipation of a potentially extended rally to help protect previous sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After reaching a peak of 748 on May 15 and posting a bearish reversal, the July ’24 contract found support around 710. Should this support area hold and prices close above the recent 748 high, they could be on track to test the 760 – 790 area. Otherwise, a close below 710 could put the market on course toward the 697 – 690 ½ support area.

Other Charts / Weather

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5-22 End of Day: Corn and Beans Settle Higher Despite Bearish Reversals in Wheat

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover strength from soybeans and the prospect of improved export demand helped support July corn futures which held support at their 20-day moving average.

  • Support from higher soybean meal and a potentially improved demand outlook for US soybeans helped July beans close with double digit gains after opening lower in the overnight session.

  • With solid yield reports from the Illinois annual wheat tour and weakness in Matif wheat, wheat prices turned and closed lower with all three classes posting bearish reversals after they printed fresh multi-month highs overnight.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, updated US 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in July ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that July ’24 posted a bearish double top and bearish reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2023 old crop.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in both July ’24 and Dec ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that Dec ’24 posted a bearish key reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2024 new crop.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The prospects of improved demand, and strength in the soybean market, supported corn futures on Wednesday. July futures lead the market higher as bull spreading, buying front month contracts versus deferred futures, was noted on the session.

  • US corn has become very competitive on the global export market. Rumors that European countries are looking at buying US corn helped support the July contract. This talk follows yesterday’s announced sale of corn to Spain.

  • The USDA will release the weekly export sale report on Thursday morning. Expectations are for new sales to range from 500,000 – 1.2 mmt for old crop and 250,000 – 500,000 mt for new crop. Last week’s report saw sales of 742,000 mt as corn sales have slowed in recent weeks.

  • Ethanol production increased by 1.9% week over week to 1.019 million barrels/day on the Weekly Ethanol Production Report. Total corn used for the week is estimated at 101.14 million bushels, below the needed 109.30 million bushels/week average to meet the USDA’s marketing year forecast of 5.450 billion bushels.

  • Weather forecasts and planting pace will still be a focus for the market. A window is open in the eastern Corn Belt, which could provide some opportunity for planting to continue. Overall, long range forecasts are showing a below normal precipitation forecast going into early June.

Above: The corn market did an about face and rallied higher on May 20 following four consecutive lower closes and finding support near 452. Should prices continue higher, heavy resistance remains overhead near the recent high of 474 ½. Should the market close below 452, further support may come in towards 445 – 440.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity, while also targeting the 1280 – 1320 range, a modest retracement back to the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting a close at or above 1253 after June 1 to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans finished the day higher with the majority of gains in the front months, with both the July and November contracts up on the week so far. Soybean meal drove soybeans higher today with July closing up 1.58%, while soybean oil settled mixed with gains in the front months but losses in deferred contracts. Excessive rains continue to be supportive to the grain complex.

  • Yesterday morning, Reuters reported that China had purchased at least two cargoes of US soybeans for July shipment which is encouraging following the tariffs that were recently announced on Chinese goods and that caused fears of trade retaliation.

  • While Brazilian soybean offers remain cheaper, the US has become much more competitive recently with the spread between Brazilian FOB beans and US Gulf FOB offers narrowing by over $1.90 since January. In addition to yesterday’s report of China buying 2 cargoes of US soybeans, more rumors are circling of China potentially buying as many as 8 cargoes for July/August.

  • Although the planting pace for soybeans is above the 5-year average, there are still a large number of acres yet to be planted, and wet weather may push planting into June potentially at the expense of better yields. Forecasts are expected to dry out next month.

Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat finished the session with modest losses in all three categories. Despite Matif wheat gapping higher and closing higher, it closed well off the daily highs, and weighed on US wheat. Furthermore, the US Dollar Index has been steadily rising over the past several sessions, offering upside resistance to the wheat market.  

  • The Illinois annual wheat tour found a day 1 average yield of 104 bpa, which exceeded last year’s average of 97.1 bpa. For reference, the USDA is projecting a 2024 yield of 83 bpa in Illinois, which would be down from last year’s record 87 bpa.

  • Weather in North America may impact crops this week, according to LSEG Commodities Research. Cold temperatures with the threat of frost may cause wheat planting delays in Canada. Additionally, potentially heavy rain and damaging storms could affect the US winter wheat crop, while also causing delayed planting of corn and soybeans.

  • The Black Sea area does look mostly dry for the next couple of weeks. Temperatures have turned warmer, eliminating the recent frost issues, and the second week of the forecast has temperatures turning warmer still. The combined damage from freezing conditions and the dry weather has some analysts projecting a Russian wheat crop below 80 mmt.

  • Since the marketing year began on July 1, European Union exports of soft wheat have reached 26.3 mmt as of May 3, representing an 8% year over year decline from 28.6 mmt. North African nations were the top export destinations, led by Morocco and followed by Nigeria and Algeria.

  • China has reportedly announced a national insurance program for wheat (along with rice and corn). This is said to be an effort to improve food security by encouraging the planting of these staples. This plan will cover income losses due to pests, diseases, and natural disasters, among other risks.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop. July ’24 Chicago wheat is now about 160 cents from the March low, as world production concerns have driven Managed funds to cover much of their extensive short positions. With July ’24 Chicago wheat having retraced 62% of its range back toward the July 2023 contract high and trading near 700 psychological resistance, we recommend taking advantage of these higher prices to make another sale on your estimated 2024 SRW wheat production.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy July ‘25 860 and 1020 Chicago wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop for approximately 73 cents plus commission and fees.  Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 697 high in July ’24 Chicago wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales against the 2024 crop, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: After setting a 716 ¾ high and closing lower on May 22, July Chicago could be set up to test nearby downside support near 650. If support holds and prices close above 716 ¾, they could be on track to test the 770 – 777 resistance area. Otherwise, further support may be found near 628.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2023 HRW wheat crop. Since the middle of April, July ’24 KC wheat has rallied in excess of 150 cents to a high of 719 ¼, mostly on dryness in the US HRW growing areas and concerns regarding Russia’s wheat crop. However, the bearish reversal from today’s 719 ¼ high, suggests that prices may begin to move lower. Also, considering that time is getting limited to market the remainder of this crop, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2023 HRW production in what will likely be our last sales recommendation for this crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month-long 552–605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short-lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and crop concerns have developed worldwide, if July ’24 KC closes above the recent 710 high, we would recommend buying upside calls in anticipation of a potential extended rally to help protect previous sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. That said, we also revised our target range to 820 – 840 to make additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found between 660 and 646, and again near 623.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Following the recent breakout to the upside and the subsequent rally off the April lows, we recommended making two separate sales to take advantage of the elevated prices. Considering the increased volatility in the market we are now targeting the 760 – 790 range in July ‘24 for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRS crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider has made two separate sales recommendations to take advantage of the recent rally and build a solid weighted average price for this year’s crop. Moving forward, our current Plan A is to try and let the market run for now. Should the market slide back down, our current Plan B is a downside stop of 692. While the market stays above 692, it is our contention that the uptrend remains intact. However, if Sept ’24 closes below 692 support, upside momentum may be waning, and the trend could be turning down. Therefore, a close below 692 support would trigger an additional sale immediately. Moreover, considering that crop concerns have risen worldwide, if July ’24 KC closes above its recent 710 high, we would recommend buying upside KC calls (for their greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat) in anticipation of a potentially extended rally to help protect previous sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After reaching a peak of 748 on May 15 and posting a bearish reversal, the July ’24 contract found support around 710. Should this support area hold and prices close above the recent 748 high, they could be on track to test the 760 – 790 area. Otherwise, a close below 710 could put the market on course toward the 697 – 690 ½ support area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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5-21 End of Day: Lower Russian Wheat Projections Support Chicago and KC Wheat

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A jump of 21% in last week’s planting progress, which was ahead of expectations, added downward pressure to the corn market that saw two-sided trade in a rather tight 6 ¼ cent range in the July contract following yesterday’s strong gains.

  • Despite midday reports of China purchasing two cargoes of soybeans for July delivery, the soybean market faced pressure from faster-than-anticipated planting. Additionally, lower soybean meal and oil prices contributed to the day’s weakness.

  • The wheat complex closed mixed following volatile two-sided trade, with Chicago leading KC, while Minneapolis printed small losses. Lowered estimates on Russia’s wheat crop from IKAR lent support to Chicago and KC, while the quick spring wheat planting pace likely weighed on Minneapolis.  

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, updated US 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in July ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that July ’24 posted a bearish double top and bearish reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2023 old crop.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in both July ’24 and Dec ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that Dec ’24 posted a bearish key reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2024 new crop.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market was pressured most of the session by a strong planting progress report, but late day strength in wheat lifted corn futures off its lows to finish with small losses on the day.

  • The USDA Crop Progress report released on Monday afternoon saw a large jump in corn planting last week. US producers have planted 70% of this year’s corn crop as of Sunday.  This was up 21% from last week, and slightly above market expectations. The 5-year average was 71%.

  • Although most states are on track or ahead of their 5-year averages, Iowa is only 78% complete, trailing its average pace by 8%, while Illinois stands at 67% complete, behind by 4%. Recent rainfall in Iowa this week is expected to further slow planting progress in affected areas.

  • USDA announced two flash sales of corn on the export market this morning. Mexico bought 113,500 mt of corn split evenly between new crop and old crop, and Spain added 110,000 mt of old crop corn.

Above: The corn market did an about face and rallied higher on May 20 following four consecutive lower closes and finding support near 452. Should prices continue higher, heavy resistance remains overhead near the recent high of 474 ½. Down below the market, initial support may be found near 452, with further support towards 445 – 440.

Above: Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity, while also targeting the 1280 – 1320 range. This is a modest retracement back to the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower giving up about half of the gains from yesterday, while both soybean meal and oil ended lower as well. Pressure came from yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report which saw soybean plantings advancing above the 5-year average. Both July and November soybeans remain above their 100-day moving averages.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that soybeans were 52% planted which compares to the average trade guess of 49% and the 5-year average of 49%. Planting pace is now ahead of the 5-year average, and 26% of the crop is emerged which is ahead of schedule as well.

  • This morning, Reuters reported that China had purchased at least two cargoes of US soybeans for July shipment which is encouraging following the tariffs that were recently announced on Chinese goods and that caused fears of trade retaliation.

  • In the southern regions of Brazil, flooding remains an issue, and rains are forecast throughout the end of this week. While the flooding has clearly damaged soybeans in the field, it has also caused transportation issues to port cities. Drier conditions are expected after this week.

Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Above: Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed higher in Chicago and Kansas City contracts but posted small losses in Minneapolis. Though Matif wheat did close marginally higher today, it was not enough to provide much support to the US market. Lower corn and soybean futures also likely limited the upside for wheat.

  • According to the weekly Crop Progress report, winter wheat condition declined 1% to 49% good to excellent, but poor to very poor remained steady at 18%. Looking at the breakdown by class, soft red winter is rated 73% good to excellent, while hard red winter is rated 44% good to excellent. Winter wheat is 69% headed versus 58% last year and 57% average. Spring wheat is 79% planted, which exceeds the average of 57% last year and 65% average. Additionally, 43% of that crop has emerged, which is well above the 33% average, and 27% last year.

  • IKAR lowered their estimate of Russian wheat production from 86 mmt to 83.5 mmt, while the USDA is using an 88 mmt figure. IKAR is also said to have reduced their estimate of Russian wheat exports from 47 to 45 mmt; the USDA is projecting 52 mmt of exports.

  • Although wheat prices have increased recently, producer margins in Brazil are still smaller than the previous year. CONAB is estimating that wheat planted area may decline by 11.1% to 3.086 million hectares this season. Despite this, yield may increase, resulting in a 9.082 mmt crop, which would be a 12.2% increase versus 2023.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop. July ’24 Chicago wheat is now about 160 cents from the March low, as world production concerns have driven Managed funds to cover much of their extensive short positions. With July ’24 Chicago wheat having retraced 62% of its range back toward the July 2023 contract high and trading near 700 psychological resistance, we recommend taking advantage of these higher prices to make another sale on your estimated 2024 SRW wheat production.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ‘25 860 and 1020 Chicago wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop for approximately 73 cents plus commission and fees.  Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 697 high in July ’24 Chicago wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales against the 2024 crop, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: After finding support around 650 July ’24 Chicago rallied and tested the 700 resistance area. A rally above this area opens the door for a potential run towards last July’s 777 ¼ high. If 700 resistance holds, and prices break, initial support remains near 650 with further support around 628.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. We are now targeting the 710 – 730 range in July ’24 KC for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month-long 552–605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short-lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and crop concerns have developed worldwide, if July ’24 KC closes above the recent 710 high, we would recommend buying upside calls in anticipation of a potential extended rally to help protect previous sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. That said, we also revised our target range to 820 – 840 to make additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found between 660 and 646, and again near 623.

Above: Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (pink).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Following the recent breakout to the upside and the subsequent rally off the April lows, we recommended making two separate sales to take advantage of the elevated prices. Considering the increased volatility in the market we are now targeting the 760 – 790 range in July ‘24 for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRS crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider has made two separate sales recommendations to take advantage of the recent rally and build a solid weighted average price for this year’s crop. Moving forward, our current Plan A is to try and let the market run for now. Should the market slide back down, our current Plan B is a downside stop of 692. While the market stays above 692, it is our contention that the uptrend remains intact. Whereas if Sept ’24 closes below 692 support, upside momentum may be lessening, and the trend could be turning down. Therefore, a close below 692 support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After reaching a peak of 748 on May 15 and posting a bearish reversal, the July ’24 contract found support around 710. Should this support area hold and prices close above the recent 748 high, they could be on track to test the 760 – 790 area. Otherwise, a close below 710 could put the market on course toward the 697 – 690 ½ support area.

Above: Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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5-20 End of Day: Expectations of More Dry Russian Weather Drives Wheat Sharply Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Sharply higher wheat and carryover strength from soybeans helped end the corn market’s streak of consecutive lower closes and propel July corn to settle back above its 100-day moving average.

  • Wet conditions and concerns regarding delayed planting lent support to soybeans along with higher meal and sharply higher bean oil, as July soybeans rallied and closed above last week’s high.

  • While July soybean meal continues to hold support just above $365.0, renewed market talk of increased tariffs on used cooking oil kept support underneath the soybean oil market which rallied to its highest close in five weeks as traders likely continue to cover short positions.

  • July contracts in all three wheat classes traded within ten cents of last week’s highs, buoyed by support from sharply higher Paris milling wheat prices and ongoing concerns about the Russian and Ukrainian crops due to persistent dryness and recent frost damage.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, updated US 6-10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in July ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that July ’24 posted a bearish double top and bearish reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2023 old crop.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in both July ’24 and Dec ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that Dec ’24 posted a bearish key reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2024 new crop.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Carryover strength from sharply higher wheat, with additional support from soybeans, helped push both July and December corn higher in today’s session after holding support above last Friday’s lows. While December held above its 100-day moving average on Friday, July corn traded and closed back above its 100-day ma today.

  • Weekly corn export inspections came in strong and above the range of expectations at 48 mb. To date, 1.386 billion bushels of corn have been inspected for export, which is 29% above year-ago levels and on pace to meet the USDA’s export forecast. Of the total inspected, 11 mb are destined for China.

  • Friday the CFTC issued its Commitment of Traders report showing that Managed funds net bought just over 31,000 contracts, which reduced their position to the smallest net short since last August, just over 71k contracts.

  • This afternoon, the USDA will issue its weekly Crop Progress report, and corn planting is estimated to be about 73 – 76% complete. It is expected that there could be between 10 – 12 million acres planted after May 20, increasing the risk of pollination in hotter and drier conditions.

Above: The corn market did an about face and rallied higher on May 20 following four consecutive lower closes and finding support near 452. Should prices continue higher, heavy resistance remains overhead near the recent high of 474 ½. Down below the market, initial support may be found near 452, with further support towards 445 – 440.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 31,342 contracts between May 8 – 14, bringing their total position to a net short 71,171 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity, while also targeting the 1280 – 1320 range. This is a modest retracement back to the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher along with both soybean meal and oil. Soybean oil was the leader with a gain of 2.32% in the July contract while soybean meal was up 1.44%. Support continues to come from wet conditions that are delaying planting, but wheat was up sharply today and likely lent support to corn and soybeans as well.

  • This morning, the Chinese import data from April was released and showed that the country imported a total of 5.92 mmt of soybeans from Brazil in April which was the highest number since September. Imports from the US in April totaled 2.45 mmt which was up 12% compared to March and up 23% from April of last year.

  • Today’s Export Inspections report showed soybean inspections totaling 6.8 mb for the week ending May 16, and total inspections are now at 1.461 billion bushels for 23/24 which is down 18% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating soybean exports at 1.700 billion bushels for 23/24 which is down 15% from the previous year.

  • In Brazil, the soybean harvest in Rio Grande do Sul is estimated at 78 to 85% complete but the region is still dealing with moisture from the flooding. Argentina is estimated to be 64% completed with harvest, and last week the US was on track with its 5-year average planting pace and likely will be again in today’s Crop Progress report.

Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 582 contracts between May 8 – 14, bringing their total position to a net short 42,035 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat finished the session with sharp gains across the board. Paris milling wheat futures added support to a sharply higher close, with the December contract leading the way with a gain of 10 Euros. This puts it within 1.50 Euros of last week’s high – a level not seen since July of last year.

  • Strength in the market could be attributed to growing concerns about the Russian and Ukrainian wheat crops following recent frosts and ongoing dryness. Additionally, there may be some additional war premium factored in, especially after Ukraine’s attack on Russian grain infrastructure at the port of Novorossiysk.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections reached 7.6 mb, bringing total 23/24 inspections to 657 mb. However, inspections are trailing behind the pace needed to meet the USDA’s goal, with total inspections down 7% from last year, whereas the USDA aims for a 5% decline.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat FOB values rose to $239 per mt last week, compared to $221 the previous week. Moreover, recent freezing conditions may have damaged up to 900,000 hectares of grain. APK-Inform projected a 20-30% yield drop in wheat and other spring crops, adding to concerns.

  • StoneX estimates project that western Australia’s wheat crop may decrease to 4.5 mmt, significantly lower than the typical 10 mmt crop. However, Australia’s total production outlook remains positive, with expectations of an 11% increase to 29.3 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and global weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures. Additionally, should July ’24 close above 697, we would recommend buying upside calls in anticipation of a potential extended rally to help protect previous sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bearish key reversal on May 15 puts July ’24 Chicago at risk of a slide lower toward nearby support around 628. Should that area fail, further support could be found near 593. If a bullish impetus enters the scene to turn prices back higher, heavy resistance remains overhead around 700.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 14,109 contracts between May 8 – 14, bringing their total position to a net short 28,251 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. We are now targeting the 710 – 730 range in July ’24 KC for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month-long 552–605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short-lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and crop concerns have developed worldwide, if July ’24 KC closes above the recent 710 high, we would recommend buying upside calls in anticipation of a potential extended rally to help protect previous sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. That said, we also revised our target range to 820 – 840 to make additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found near 646 and again near 623.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 6,746 contracts between May 8 – 14, bringing their total position to a net short 17,267 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Following the recent breakout to the upside and the subsequent rally off the April lows, we recommended making two separate sales to take advantage of the elevated prices. Considering the increased volatility in the market we are now targeting the 760 – 790 range in July ‘24 for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRS crop year.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 Spring wheat crop. Since mid-April July ’24 Minneapolis wheat has rallied more than 110 cents from the springtime low and is now near the resistance area from last fall’s highs.  Given that this rally is likely driven by world supply concerns and weather, we recommend capitalizing on these elevated prices by selling another portion of your 2023 spring wheat production.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After reaching a peak of 748 on May 15 and posting a bearish reversal, the July ’24 contract has been moving steadily towards the support area of 697 – 690 ½. If this support holds and prices bounce back upward, they may encounter heavy resistance around the recent high of 748. However, if prices close below 690 ½, they may find additional support in the range between 677 and 660.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,783 contracts between May 8 – 14, bringing their total position to a net long 2,773 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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5-17 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Post Weak Technical Closes, While Beans Finish Strong

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Sellers were active throughout the day session pressing the corn market lower for the fourth consecutive day. A weak technical picture, a dry window to push planting, and the breakdown in wheat were all contributing factors.

  • The soybean market posted a strong close going into the weekend following a week of consolidation. A strong weekly gain of 0.83 cents in July soybean oil supported soybeans with the its highest close in 3 weeks, while July meal closed the week down $3.10, though $3.70 off the week’s low.

  • Like corn, the wheat complex closed lower for the fourth day in a row after rejecting early rally attempts. All three classes posted bearish reversals on the weekly charts in the July contracts, with Chicago dropping 12 ¼ cents, KC 11 ½, and July Minneapolis 8 ½. The results from the Kansas wheat tour, revealing the best estimated yields in three years, combined with a weak technical picture, encouraged selling pressure.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and updated US Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in July ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that July ’24 posted a bearish double top and bearish reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2023 old crop.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in both July ’24 and Dec ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that Dec ’24 posted a bearish key reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2024 new crop.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • It was a difficult end of the week in the corn market as prices stay under selling pressure with a near-term weather forecast and a technical breakdown in the wheat futures. July corn was 17 ¼ cents lower on the week and 23 cents off this week’s high.

  • With the weak price action, corn futures posted bearish key reversals on the weekly charts, which could indicate a longer-term downward trend is forming. The market will be watching for follow-through selling pressure next week.

  • Near-term weather forecasts reflect a window for producers to push the planting pace. The next 3-4 days overall is looking for dryer conditions and warm temperatures, which could provide that opportunity. Longer-range forecasts are still looking at above average precipitation into the end of the month. A focus will be the planting pace in Iowa and Illinois, which were 13% and 14% respectively behind the 5-year average on the last crop progress report.

  • The 5-year planting pace for next Monday’s crop progress report is near 75% complete. If the current planting pace can be near that level on Monday afternoon, the market will be less concerned and additional weather premium that is in the corn market may be removed, pressuring prices.

Above: On May 17, July ’24 corn closed below the 454 support area, suggesting that prices may continue slide towards the 445 – 440 support area. Should this area hold, and prices turn higher, initial overhead resistance may be found near 454, with heavier resistance near the recent high of 474 ½.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity, while also targeting the 1280 – 1320 range. This is a modest retracement back to the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after a day of mixed trade that saw prices slide during midday before recovering. Soybean meal was mixed with the front months ending higher but deferred months lower. Soybean oil closed higher for the third consecutive day despite the tariff announcement on Tuesday that temporarily drove prices lower.

  • For the week, July soybeans gained 9 cents to 1228, and November soybeans lost 2 ½ cents to close at 1203 ¼. July soybean meal lost $3.10 finishing at $368.80 and July soybean oil gained 0.83 cents at 45.27 cents. Overall, delayed planting due to rains were supportive, but export sales and the NOPA crush numbers were disappointing.

  • In Brazil, the flooded state of Rio Grande do Sul has reportedly harvested 85% of its planted soybean area which is up from 78% last week. Progress remains slow as some areas are still flooded, and there are reports that some food silos have been heavily damaged as well due to the water.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report for soybeans were poor at 9.8 mb in sales for 23/24 and 0.9 mb for 24/25. This was down 38% from last week and down 31% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments for soybeans of 16.3 mb were above the 12.6 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 1.700 billion bushels. Although, total sales commitments are down 16% from a year ago. Primary destinations were to Egypt, China, and Indonesia.

Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted double digit losses in both Chicago and Kansas City contracts, with Minneapolis not far behind. This is the fourth consecutive lower close for July Chicago futures, which are still well above 620 ½ support at the 200-day moving average.  

  • The Kansas wheat crop tour concluded yesterday, with the best estimates in three years. They projected the crop at 290.4 mb with an average yield of 46.5 bpa, which was significantly above the five year average of 42.4 bpa. However, there are still trouble spots and there is still time for dryness to set in that may reduce production.

  • Russia has reduced its wheat export tax to 3,110 Rubles per mt, marking a 2% decrease. Additionally, they reported a loss of about 1% of their planted crop area due to frost, totaling approximately 830,000 hectares. Furthermore, Russian wheat export values have risen to $242 per mt FOB, which is a $44 increase from the low but still remains approximately $20 below French offers.

  • Ukraine’s wheat exports since July of last year have reached 16.6 mmt, representing a 10% increase year over year. The USDA estimates Ukraine’s wheat exports for the marketing year at 17.5 mmt. Their total grain exports have reached 44.2 mmt, up 0.5% year on year. In May alone, their grain shipments reached 2.86 mmt, marking a 38% increase year on year.

  • According to their national statistics office, Germany’s 2024 winter wheat planted area fell 8.3% year over year, due to heavy rains and flooding that impacted arable land during the fall and winter. Total winter wheat plantings are estimated at 2.6 million hectares.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bearish key reversal on May 15 puts July ’24 Chicago at risk of a slide lower toward nearby support around 628. Should that area fail, further support could be found near 593. If a bullish impetus enters the scene to turn prices back higher, heavy resistance remains overhead around 700.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. We are now targeting the 710 – 730 range in July ’24 KC for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month-long 552–605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short-lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and crop concerns have developed worldwide, if July ’24 KC closes above the recent 710 high, we would recommend buying upside calls in anticipation of a potential extended rally to help protect previous sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. That said, we also revised our target range to 820 – 840 to make additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found near 646 and again near 623.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Following the recent breakout to the upside and the subsequent rally off the April lows, we recommended making two separate sales to take advantage of the elevated prices. Considering the increased volatility in the market we are now targeting the 760 – 790 range in July ‘24 for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRS crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After reaching a peak of 748 on May 15 and posting a bearish reversal, the July ’24 contract has been moving steadily towards the support area of 697 – 690 ½. If this support holds and prices bounce back upward, they may encounter heavy resistance around the recent high of 748. However, if prices close below 690 ½, they may find additional support in the range between 677 and 660.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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5-16 End of Day: Follow Through Selling Presses Corn and Wheat Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Weak export sales and follow through selling from yesterday’s poor close pushed the corn market lower on the 8:30 CDT open from overnight gains, with the July contract maintaining support just above its 100-day moving average.

  • Lower than expected export sales weighed on the soybean market that was caught in a very choppy two sided trade. Sharply higher soybean oil provided underlying support, while lower meal added resistance as July soybeans consolidated around its 100-day ma for the fifth consecutive day.

  • Traders may be profit-taking on short oil/long meal positions as soybean oil settled nearly 100 points higher on the day after maintaining support around 43.40 in the July contract, while July meal dropped $4.00 following yesterday’s weakness. Soybean oil’s share of Board crush value has recovered over 1.5% in the last 9 sessions from its 6.5% drop since April’s high.

  • For the third consecutive day, all three wheat classes closed lower after giving up earlier gains. Sellers were encouraged by lower Matif wheat prices, positive findings from the Kansas wheat tour, and forecasts suggesting improved rain opportunities in Russia.

  • To see the updated US 5 and 7-day precipitation forecasts, and the current US Drought Monitor and class change from last month, courtesy of NWS, CPC, NOAA, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in July ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that July ’24 posted a bearish double top and bearish reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2023 old crop.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in both July ’24 and Dec ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that Dec ’24 posted a bearish key reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2024 new crop.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure continued in the corn market after yesterday’s difficult close. Weakness across the grain market in general pressured corn futures, which slipped off early session highs. July corn is testing the 100-day moving average at 457, which could be a swing point in prices.

  • Weekly export sales were within expectations but have been trending softer than a few weeks ago. USDA export sales report as new sales of corn over the last week at 29.2 mb (742,000 mt) of old crop and 5 mb (128,000 mt) of new crop. Old crop sales were down 17% from last week and 14% from the prior 4-week average. Export sales are still up 27% over last year’s totals.

  • Near-term weather forecasts reflect a possible window for producers to push the planting pace. The next 5-6 days overall is looking for dryer conditions and could provide that opportunity. Longer-range forecasts are still looking at above average precipitation into the end of the month. A focus will be the planting pace in Iowa and Illinois, which were 13% and 14% respectively behind the 5-year average on the last crop progress report.

  • Wheat market price action has been a limiting force on corn prices this week. For the third consecutive day, wheat futures have given up double digit price strength to close the day in the red, possibly signaling a near-term peak in that wheat market.

  • Corn price rallies have been limited by selling pressure from producers in the US as well as Argentina and Brazil. New crop hedging pressure likely limited this most recent rally as Dec corn challenged the 500 price level.

Above: A close above the May 7 high of 472 suggests the market could run toward the 495 – 510 resistance area from last fall. However, a reversal lower and a close below 454 initial support, could lead the market to test heavier support in the 445 – 440 range.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity, while also targeting the 1280 – 1320 range. This is a modest retracement back to the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day mixed with the July and August contracts higher but deferred contracts lower. Prices did rebound from earlier in the day, but a poor export sales report today along with disappointing NOPA crush numbers yesterday pressured futures today. Soybean meal was lower while soybean oil was higher for the day.

  • Today’s export sales report for soybeans were poor at 9.8 mb in sales for 23/24 and 0.9 mb for 24/25. This was down 38% from last week and down 31% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments for soybeans of 16.3 mb were above the 12.6 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 1.700 billion bushels. Although, total sales commitments are down 16% from a year ago. Primary destinations were to Egypt, China, and Indonesia.

  • Yesterday, the USDA reported a private exporter sale totaling 180,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. While not guaranteed, “unknown destinations” is often China, and this would be encouraging given the fear of retaliation for the new tariffs.

  • On Tuesday, CONAB increased its estimate for Brazil’s soybean production by 1 mmt to 147.5 mmt. This is still well below the USDA’s estimate of 154 mmt. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange also has its estimates for soybean production below that of the USDA.

Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted small losses in Chicago and Kansas City futures, with more modest declines in Minneapolis futures. Lower corn and soybean prices failed to support to wheat, whose losses were compounded by a stronger US Dollar and a decline in Paris milling wheat futures. Additionally, the American weather model today hinted at better opportunities for rain in southern Russia that may alleviate some drought concerns.

  • The USDA reported an increase of only 2.9 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 11.2 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week, however, at 16.5 mb, just exceeded the 16.3 mb needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 720 mb.

  • Day two of the Kansas wheat crop tour confirmed what many thought – the crop is in much better shape compared to last year, but there are still trouble spots. Average yield for the second day came in at 42.4 bpa, which is above the USDA’s forecast for the state of 38 bpa. That is also above 35 bpa last year but below the 10 year average of 42.9 bpa.

  • According to the USDA, as of May 14, about 25% of the US winter wheat crop is experiencing drought, a 3% improvement versus last week. Additionally, 14% of US spring wheat acres are said to be in drought, compared with 15% last week.

  • GrainCorp Ltd suggests that persistent dryness in western Australia could significantly reduce Australian wheat exports. Although conditions on the east coast appear more favorable, if this trend persists, it could raise concerns about global supply.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina has said “There are factors favoring a successful wheat season.” Currently, soil conditions surpass those of the 21/22 season, which saw record production. Anticipated rains in the October/November timeframe, potentially driven by La Nina, could further benefit their crop. The exchange reports a 70% chance of La Nina affecting Argentina by October.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bearish key reversal on May 15 puts July ’24 Chicago at risk of a slide lower toward nearby support around 628. Should that area fail, further support could be found near 593. If a bullish impetus enters the scene to turn prices back higher, heavy resistance remains overhead around 700.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid 590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, and while Managed funds covered a significant portion of their net short positions, they remain short the market, which could still push prices higher if production concerns persist.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. We are now targeting the 710 – 730 range in July ’24 KC for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month-long 552–605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short-lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and crop concerns have developed worldwide, if July ’24 KC closes above the recent 710 high, we would recommend buying upside calls in anticipation of a potential extended rally to help protect previous sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. That said, we also revised our target range to 820 – 840 to make additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found near 646 and again near 623.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market and indications of overbought conditions, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer. Moreover, the fact that Managed funds still maintain a net short position suggests the potential for an extended rally if further production concerns emerge.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 Spring wheat crop. Since mid-April July ’24 Minneapolis wheat has rallied more than 110 cents from the springtime low and is now near the resistance area from last fall’s highs.  Given that this rally is likely driven by world supply concerns and weather, we recommend capitalizing on these elevated prices by selling another portion of your 2023 spring wheat production.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The close above 731 could put the July ’24 contract on track to test the November high of 752, and then the 767 – 791 congestion area from last September. Below the market, nearby support remains around 697 – 690 ½, a close below which could signal a further decline toward support levels at 675 and 660.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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5-15 End of Day: Technical Selling Presses Grains Lower Following Reversals from the Day’s Highs

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Early support from sharply higher wheat and the damp extended forecast faded as sellers took control as they leaned on the fading wheat market and yesterday’s bearish double top formation on the July daily chart. December corn also felt the sting as it posted a bearish key reversal on the daily chart.  

  • A bearish NOPA crush report that showed the lowest April crush in three years, took the wind out of the sails in the soybean complex as all three commodities well off their respective daily highs.

  • Soybean meal and oil both saw minor net changes from today’s volatile trade after their initial rallies were sold. July meal showed a net loss of $1.60 while soybean oil gained 0.15 cents. Anticipation of SA meal supplies likely added overhead resistance to meal, just as higher palm oil and lower than expected bean oil stocks in today’s NOPA crush report may have kept some underlying support in oil.

  • The wheat complex had a rough day showing daily bearish reversals in all three classes, with July Chicago posting a key bearish reversal, settling lower after printing a fresh daily high. Three-year high yields on the Kansas wheat tour, and the failure of July Chicago to breach 700 added to the negativity.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 1-week precipitation forecast versus normal for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2023 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in July ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that July ’24 posted a bearish double top and bearish reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2023 old crop.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in both July ’24 and Dec ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that Dec ’24 posted a bearish key reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2024 new crop.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • It was a disappointing day in the corn market and across the entire grain complex as sellers were active. After early morning strength, sellers drove prices lower, posting reversal action and in December corn, a bearish key reversal on the charts. A strong reversal lower in the wheat market impacted prices, and a less threatening near-term forecast relieved some concerns about planting pace.

  • The weak price action helped confirm the potential double-top in the July corn futures. A close under the 10-day moving average may bring additional momentum selling on Thursday. Key support will be the 100-day moving average near 457 on the July chart.

  • Today’s weekly ethanol production report saw some rebound in production week over week. Last week, production averaged 1000 bpd, up from 965 bpd the previous week. Total corn used last week for ethanol production totaled 100 mb of corn, which was below the amount needed to reach the USDA target. Last Friday, the USDA raised expected corn usage for ethanol by 50 mb to 5.450 for the marketing year.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales tomorrow morning. Expectations are for new sales to range from 700,000-1.05 mmt for the 23/24 marketing year. Last week, export sales totaled 889,150 mt of new sales.

  • Near-term weather forecasts reflect a possible window for producers to push the planting pace. The next 5-6 days overall is looking for dryer conditions and could provide that opportunity. Longer-range forecasts are still looking at above average precipitation into the end of the month.

Above: A close above the May 7 high of 472 suggests the market could run toward the 495 – 510 resistance area from last fall. However, a reversal lower and a close below 454 initial support, could lead the market to test heavier support in the 445 – 440 range.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower, significantly off their earlier morning highs which saw futures up as much as 18 cents in the July contract. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher. Pressure came from a disappointing NOPA crush report, but the wet forecast could provide longer term support.

  • Today, the NOPA crush report was released and showed that 166.034 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in April. This was well below the average trade guess of 183.072 mb and was a 3-year low for the month of April. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.755 billion bushels which was down 5.2% from March, and well below expectations.

  • This morning, the USDA reported large private exporter sales totaling 180,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 120,000 mt is for delivery during the 23/24 marketing year and 60,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.

  • Yesterday, news of new tariffs on Chinese goods such as computer chips, minerals, and EV’s was released. This caused concerns over retaliation from China in the way of fewer imports of US soybeans, and there was disappointment that used cooking oil was not included in the tariffs.

Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower in all three US futures classes after suffering major reversals off the daily highs. July Chicago wheat nearly breached 700 again (topping out at 697), but this resistance area may have generated some technical selling that triggered stop loss orders on the way down. Today’s negative close also comes despite a sharply lower US Dollar Index and a higher close for Matif wheat.  

  • The first day of the Kansas crop tour found a yield of 49.9 bpa, which is the highest in three years. This is also well above 29.8 bpa last year and the average of 42.7 bpa. With that said, some of the areas that experienced worse drought conditions will be looked at today and tomorrow and may have poorer yields.

  • SovEcon has reportedly decreased their estimate of Russian wheat production by roughly 4 mmt to 85.7 mmt. This is in line with the recent drop by IKAR to 86 mmt. The reductions are said to be the result of crop loss due to frost damage. In addition, an estimated 1 mmt of all Russian crops may need to be replanted.

  • Bioceres, an Argentina based biotech ag company, is awaiting authorization to breed their HB4 wheat in the US, since they are only currently permitted to export this strain to the US for food and feed.  This GMO wheat is said to have been developed to be more drought tolerant, and their aim is to bring it to the global market.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bearish key reversal on May 15 puts July ’24 Chicago at risk of a slide lower toward nearby support around 628. Should that area fail, further support could be found near 593. If a bullish impetus enters the scene to turn prices back higher, heavy resistance remains overhead around 700.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid 590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, and while Managed funds covered a significant portion of their net short positions, they remain short the market, which could still push prices higher if production concerns persist.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. With that said, we are currently evaluating the market situation before setting a target for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month long 552 – 605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and weather has become a larger factor, we are currently targeting the 760 – 780 range versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found near 646 and again near 623.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market and indications of overbought conditions, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer. Moreover, the fact that Managed funds still maintain a net short position suggests the potential for an extended rally if further production concerns emerge.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 Spring wheat crop. Since mid-April July ’24 Minneapolis wheat has rallied more than 110 cents from the springtime low and is now near the resistance area from last fall’s highs.  Given that this rally is likely driven by world supply concerns and weather, we recommend capitalizing on these elevated prices by selling another portion of your 2023 spring wheat production.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The close above 731 could put the July ’24 contract on track to test the November high of 752, and then the 767 – 791 congestion area from last September. Below the market, nearby support remains around 697 – 690 ½, a close below which could signal a further decline toward support levels at 675 and 660.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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5-14 End of Day: Turnaround Tuesday Strikes with Lower Markets Across the Board

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover pressure from the wheat complex and neighboring soybeans contributed to the negativity in the corn market, which traded lower in the day session following the print of a new high for the move in the overnight session from the slower than expected planting pace.

  • Although the soybean market settled lower on the day, the market recovered most of its overnight losses after the July contract found support near its 20-day moving average along with help from the rally in soybean meal, which posted a bullish key reversal for the move.

  • Soybean oil broke hard in today’s session, giving up much of the gains from the prior two days, as the rumored and much hoped for tariff increases on imported used cooking oil did not materialize. Soybean meal on the other hand, found potential support from long meal/short oil spread action as traders likely jumped back into the market from meal’s recent decline.

  • Profit taking and sharply lower Matif wheat added to the negative tone in the wheat complex despite another crop analyst reduction to the Russian wheat crop. KC wheat led the declines, while Chicago posted a fresh high for the move before reversing lower.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus July ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures failed to follow through on Monday’s gains as selling pressure in the wheat market and soybean market spilled over into the corn futures. July corn double-topped Mondays highs and posted a reversal on the daily charts. The negative price action could lead to additional selling pressure into Wednesday. May corn futures finished its trading life on Tuesday.  May futures closed trade at 453 ¾.

  • The USDA crop progress report showed corn planting at 49% complete, in line with analyst expectations.  This was up 13% over last week, but 5% below the 5-year average. Key states of Iowa (-13%) and Illinois (-14%) are behind the 5-year pace and additional slow planting could support the market. Weather models overall are staying on the wetter side but may have holes to provide opportunities to complete planting in some areas.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn to Mexico. Mexico purchased 15.9 mb (405,000 mt) of corn split between old and new crop. A total of 135,000 mt for the 23/24 marketing year and 270,000 mt for the 24/25 marketing year. These are routine sales of corn to Mexico and failed to move the market.

  • The Brazil Ag agency, CONAB, released their May production expectations this morning. CONAB raised their Brazil corn production estimate to 111.6 mmt, up 672,000 mt from their April estimate. This is still down sharply from last year’s production of 131 mmt as producers have reduced corn acreage overall.

  • The Corn market could be a crossroads point as weak price action in the grain market could be signaling a near-term top. The market will be looking for additional news to push prices higher, as the planting pace, at this time, is acceptable.

Above: A close above the May 7 high of 472 suggests the market could run toward the 495 – 510 resistance area from last fall. However, a reversal lower and a close below 454 initial support, could lead the market to test heavier support in the 445 – 440 range.

Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower and were under pressure from sharply lower soybean oil, but soybean meal was higher which helped offset the losses in oil. July soybeans finished the day just above its 100-day moving average while the November contract remains well above.

  • Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that 35% of the soybean crop has been planted which was lower than the average trade guess of 39%. This compares to 25% last week, 45% a year ago, and the 5-year average of 34%. 16% of the crop has reportedly emerged, which compares to 9% last week and 17% a year ago at this time.

  • This morning, CONAB released its estimates for the Brazilian soybean crop and revised its number higher to 147.7 mmt. There is now a 6.3 mmt discrepancy between CONAB and the USDA with the USDA’s estimate last week at 154 mmt. With the flooding in Rio Grande do Sul, the USDA’s estimate is likely too high.

  • Soybean oil tumbled this morning after the Biden administration announced tariffs on several Chinese products, but used cooking oil was not on the list as was previously rumored. Over the past week, soybean oil had been rallying based on that rumor as the decline in used cooking oil imports would create greater demand for soybean oil.

Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • US wheat futures closed lower across the board, with Paris milling wheat futures also experiencing sharp declines. This downward trend is likely due to profit-taking following a recent strong rally, exacerbated by lower corn and soybean futures.

  • Yesterday’s crop progress report indicated that winter wheat conditions remained unchanged at 50% rated good to excellent. However, there was a 2% shift from fair to the poor to very poor category. This discrepancy may be attributed to the difference between HRW and SRW wheat, with the former being rated much lower than the latter. Additionally, 57% of the winter wheat crop is headed, compared to 46% last year and 44% on average. Moreover, spring wheat planting is reported at 61%, well ahead of last year’s 35% and the 48% average.

  • Freezing conditions in Russia continue to pose a threat to their wheat crop, with several private estimates now forecasting production below 90 mmt. IKAR has reportedly lowered their projection by 5 mmt to 86 mmt. Dryness in the Black Sea area may also impact both the Russian and Ukrainian crops. Furthermore, excessive wet weather in parts of Europe, particularly France, adds to the bullish outlook on a global scale.

  • CONAB has lowered their production estimate of Brazil’s wheat crop by 7% to 9.03 mmt. Lower acreage is cited as the reason for the decline, which itself is likely due to the recent torrential rains and flooding problems in Southern Brazil. For reference, the USDA estimated a 9.5 mmt crop on last Friday’s report.

  • According to the Australian weather bureau, there is a 50% chance of a La Nina weather pattern developing later this year. This is a bit lower than some other estimates from around the world, including the Japanese weather bureau giving it a 60% chance. Regardless, the formation of this pattern should bring more moisture to eastern Australia, but drier conditions to North America.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

After closing above 684 on May 13, July ’24 Chicago remains on track to move toward the July high of 777 ¼, though psychological resistance also remains near 700. Should the market slide lower and close below nearby support near 628, it would then be at risk of testing the 593 area from late April.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid 590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, and while Managed funds covered a significant portion of their net short positions, they remain short the market, which could still push prices higher if production concerns persist.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. With that said, we are currently evaluating the market situation before setting a target for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month long 552 – 605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and weather has become a larger factor, we are currently targeting the 760 – 780 range versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found near 646 and again near 623.

On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found near 646 and again near 623.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market and indications of overbought conditions, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer. Moreover, the fact that Managed funds still maintain a net short position suggests the potential for an extended rally if further production concerns emerge.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 Spring wheat crop. Since mid-April July ’24 Minneapolis wheat has rallied more than 110 cents from the springtime low and is now near the resistance area from last fall’s highs.  Given that this rally is likely driven by world supply concerns and weather, we recommend capitalizing on these elevated prices by selling another portion of your 2023 spring wheat production.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The close above 731 could put the July ’24 contract on track to test the November high of 752, and then the 767 – 791 congestion area from last September. Below the market, nearby support remains around 697 – 690 ½, a close below which could signal a further decline toward support levels at 675 and 660.

Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.