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4-19 End of Day: Markets Close Higher as Traders Cover Shorts From a Mostly Down Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Increased tensions in the Middle East triggered a short covering rally that helped July corn rally back toward its 50-day moving average. Further support came from fresh corn sales to Mexico, and an EPA announcement allowing an expanded sale of E-15 gasoline.

  • July soybeans closed the day posting a bullish key reversal, on short covering from last night’s Israeli attacks on Iran and another flash sale to unknown destinations. Higher meal and oil, and wet conditions in Argentina also contributed to the positive tenor.  

  • The wheat complex settled higher in all three classes with Chicago showing the most gains. Possible short covering triggered by last night’s events in the Middle East, with higher Matif wheat and carry over strength from neighboring corn and beans adding support.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, and the 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of NOAA and The Climate Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw a short covering rally to end the week as concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran spooked the markets on the overnight session. Friday’s price action was very similar to last Friday’s trade. Even with today’s strength, July corn traded 4 ¼ cents lower on the week and posted its lowest weekly in 7 weeks.

  • The USDA announced a flash export sale of corn to Mexico this morning. Mexico purchased 216,500 mt (8.5 mb) of corn with 23,000 mt for the current marketing year and 193,500 mt for the 24/25 marketing year.

  • The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued an emergency fuel waiver to allow E15 gasoline to be sold nationally during the summer driving season. The program goes into effect on May 1, with sales running from June 1 – September 1. The waiver was passed to limit price shock concerns if tensions increased in the Middle East.

  • Current precipitation and cool weather across the Corn Belt this week have likely limited planting progress in key corn producing states. Corn planting reached 6% complete last week, and concerns will increase if the pace is slow going into May. Typically, the US corn crop is approximately 27-30% planted by the end of April.

  • The corn market may see selling pressure moving into the end of the month. Producers who hold May basis contracts will need to price or roll those contracts by first notice day, April 30, for May futures. This could bring a natural selling environment into the weak market tone for the corn market.

Above: The corn market transitioned lead months from May to July making the chart look like prices have gapped higher due to the 11-cent premium to July. The market remains largely rangebound and a close above 460 could allow prices to test the 495 – 510 area. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s April Supply and Demand report failed to provide significant bullish data to prompt substantial short covering, as it mainly reflected recent demand challenges and an increase in ending stocks that aligned with the market’s expectations. However, Managed Money retains a considerable net short position near 139,000 contracts, as of the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel a short covering rally should complications arise during planting season, which has just begun. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed significantly higher to finish the week after overnight it was reported that Israel sent attack drones to Iran in an escalation of Middle Eastern tensions. This caused crude oil to jump over three dollars at one point before it faded this morning. Soybeans may also have gotten a boost from higher corn as a result of the new EPA decision regarding E15.

  • July soybeans have trended lower over the past month and are now just 25 cents off their low that was made in February. For the week, July soybeans lost 21 cents and November lost 15 ¼ cents. July soybean meal lost $0.90 for the week at $343.20, and July soybean oil lost 1.51 cents ending at 44.94 cents.

  • In South America, there have been reports that Argentina is receiving too much rain which could be detrimental to their soybean crop. Yesterday, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that 77% of the crop was rated good to excellent, but only 14% has been harvested. Brazil is likely over 90% finished with harvest at this point.

  • In the US, planting has begun in the South and in the central Corn Belt, but many areas of the Midwest are still receiving rain and may have to wait to begin planting. Despite potential delays, these rains are helping areas with some of the worst soil moisture levels.

Above: April 19 July soybeans posted a key bullish reversal, marking support just below the market near 1145 which coincides with the March 6 low of 1140 ¼. Should this support area hold, prices could potentially rebound and test the March high near 1127. Below 1140 ¼ lies, key support near the February low of 1128 ½.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat ended the session with gains in all three classes, supported by higher corn and soybean futures, a higher close for Matif wheat, and consolidation of the US Dollar. Initial strength may have also stemmed from news that Israel attacked Iran. However, the market may have largely brushed this news aside as no greater conflict is expected. This may indicate that the grain complex, in general, is seeing a technical bounce from oversold levels.

  • Much of the Midwest will see a cooler and drier pattern this weekend, and longer range models are predicting better rain chances for the Southern Plains. Western Kansas may miss much of this moisture though, which may keep their winter wheat conditions on the decline.

  • India’s government has reported that wheat stocks as of April 1 totaled 7.5 mmt, down from 8.35 mmt last year and marking the lowest level in 16 years. This could be supportive to futures prices, as India may need to import more wheat to meet their domestic needs.

  • SovEcon has reportedly lowered their forecast of Russian wheat production by 1 mmt to 93 mmt, which is still above the USDA figure of 91.5 mmt. Additionally, the Russian Ag Ministry has raised the wheat export tax by 5% to 3,443 rubles per mt.

  • Farmers in Argentina are said to have called for the elimination of the 12% export tax on wheat, as they deal with high production costs and low domestic prices, affecting profitability. Wheat planting in Argentina is set to begin around mid-May.

  • China expects another bumper crop of grains and oilseeds, attributed partially to increased planting areas for winter wheat and rapeseed. Government subsidies and favorable domestic prices are encouraging farmers to expand their operations as China aims to achieve a total grain production of 50 million metric tons by 2030.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since marking a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways, seeing limited upward movement due to overhead resistance. While the absence of bullish signals has been disappointing, managed funds continue to maintain a significant net short position. This suggests the potential for a short covering rally to emerge at any moment, especially as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends covering half of the remaining July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts at current market prices, minus fees, and commission. Back in March, Grain Market Insider suggested covering half of the originally recommended July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts at approximately 67 cents in premium minus fees, and commission. At 67 cents, the puts were about double their original cost.  In yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, the July ’24 contract may have found support around the 550 level.  Given the oversold nature of the market and increased global uncertainty, Grain Market Insider recommends covering another half of the remaining position to protect some of the current gains. This recommendation means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection in the event the market fails to rally off this 550 area.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Market weakness pushed July ’24 Chicago wheat below the 50-day moving average but 548 ½ initial support remains intact so far. If support holds, and prices rally back, they could still encounter resistance near the recent high of 574 ¾, before testing 585 – 620. Otherwise, if July ‘24 closes below 548 ¼, it remains at risk of drifting further to test the March low of 523 ½.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ½ in the July ’24 might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since February, Minneapolis wheat has largely been rangebound, except for a temporary dip to set a new contract low, from which prices have recovered. Although a lack of bullish drivers and resistance from the 50-day moving average remain, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen as we approach late spring and early summer. Furthermore, managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position, that potentially sets the stage for a short covering rally at any moment.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Despite recent bearish market reversals, July ’24 Minneapolis wheat remains rangebound since posting a low on April 3. Initial support below the market rests near 632, with the 625 ¼ April low just below that. Should these levels hold, and prices rally above 660 – 677 resistance, they could potentially test 700 – 712. If not, the market could drift toward 595 – 600 psychological support.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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4-18 End of Day: Weakness in Soybeans Weighs on Corn as Wheat Closes Mostly Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Another day of choppy two-sided trade with little fresh news dragged on the corn market. Currency fluctuations and technical selling added pressure to July corn which closed near the bottom of its 5 ¼ cent range.

  • Soybeans came under pressure from weakness in both soybean meal and oil, with the July contract settling just 8 ½ cents off its February low after seeing volatile trade in a 16 ¾ cent range.

  • Soybean oil closed sharply lower on pressure from lower world veg oils and growing monthly stocks numbers from this week’s NOPA crush report. Meanwhile, soybean meal also closed lower, but showed relative resilience, balancing between steady to firmer US basis values and cheaper South American export offers.

  • Support from higher Matif wheat futures and a potential correction from oversold conditions lent support to all three wheat classes that closed mid-range and mostly higher across the board.

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor, and Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of NOAA and The Climate Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures broke through key support levels on Thursday as the stronger US Dollar and selling pressure in the soybean market pushed prices lower. July corn closed at its lowest point since February 27. 

  • The weak price action leaves the market vulnerable to additional selling pressure going into the end of the week. July futures are trading 11 cents lower on the week going into Friday trade.

  • Strong trade in the US Dollar versus the Brazilian Real currency has pressured corn and soybean futures.  The Brazilian Real has closed at 5-month lows against the dollar, which has triggered strong producer selling of both corn and soybeans, weighing on futures prices.

  • Weekly export sales for corn came in at 19.7 mb (501,200 mt). Total new sales were within market expectations, but off 54% from the 4-week average. Total commitments are now at 1.759 billion bushels, up 18% from last year.

  • The corn market may see additional selling pressure moving into the end of the month. Producers who hold May basis contracts will need to price or roll those contracts by first notice day, April 30, for May futures. This could bring a natural selling environment into the weak market tone for the corn market.

Above: The corn market transitioned lead months from May to July making the chart look like prices have gapped higher due to the 11-cent premium to July. The market remains largely rangebound and a close above 460 could allow prices to test the 495 – 510 area. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s April Supply and Demand report failed to provide significant bullish data to prompt substantial short covering, as it mainly reflected recent demand challenges and an increase in ending stocks that aligned with the market’s expectations. However, Managed Money retains a considerable net short position near 139,000 contracts, as of the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel a short covering rally should complications arise during planting season, which has just begun. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed sharply lower today as prices faded continuously throughout the day. The July contract is now just 8 ½ cents away from the 1140 ½ contract low from late February. That level will be important to hold and could act as support. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower, but soybean oil posted larger losses, down nearly 2% as palm oil fell.

  • Today’s export sales report for soybeans showed an increase of 17.8 mb of sales for 23/24 and an increase of 9.7 mb for 24/25. Sales commitments now total 1.517 bb and are down 18% from a year ago, versus the USDA’s new projection of down 15%. Last week’s export shipments of 17.7 mb were above the 13.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 1.700 bb for 23/24. Primary destinations were to China, Indonesia, and Germany.

  • On the positive side, US soybeans are much more competitive with Brazilian offers than they were a year ago. This could mean that the export window in the US could open sooner than it did last year. For the time being, export demand is poor, while domestic demand is at least firm with a record NOPA crush reported on Monday.

  • In South America, the Brazilian harvest is now nearly 90% complete but there are very large discrepancies between production estimates which is odd considering that the work is nearly done. Argentina’s harvest is estimated to be 11% complete as of last week and that estimate will be revised again today or tomorrow.

  • Strong trade in the US Dollar versus the Brazilian Real currency has pressured corn and soybean futures.  The Brazilian Real has closed at 5-month lows against the dollar, which has triggered strong producer selling of both corn and soybeans, weighing on futures prices.

Above: After closing below the 50-day moving average and 1168 support, the market is at risk of drifting lower and testing support between 1140 and the February low of 1128 ½. However, the market is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive to a move higher. For now, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average of 1178 ½ with heavier resistance remaining near the recent high of 1226 ¾.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Except for May Chicago, all three wheat classes posted gains today. This is despite a higher US Dollar today, and disappointing export sales. Support came from a higher close in Paris milling wheat futures, along with a possible correction from technically oversold conditions.

  • The USDA reported net cancellations of 3.4 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24, but an increase of 8.2 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 17.9 mb exceeded the 17.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s goal of 710 mb.

  • More rain is moving across parts of the western Corn Belt with the heaviest precipitation in west-central Nebraska, northeast Kansas, and northwest Missouri. While not yet reflected by the US drought monitor, this should help with drought conditions on next week’s release. However, the southwestern Plains continue to be in need of more rain, having missed out on this system.

  • According to the USDA as of April 16, 24% of the US winter wheat crop is experiencing drought. This is a relatively significant jump from 18% last week. In addition, 26% of the spring wheat growing area is in drought, which is unchanged from last week.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecasts that Argentina’s wheat plantings for the upcoming year will remain steady at 5.9 million hectares, mirroring last year’s figures. Planting typically occurs during June and July, and although conditions are expected to be favorable, concerns about the potential impact of La Niña persist. Meanwhile, in France, soft wheat plantings are estimated to decrease by 8% to 4.4 million hectares. Heavy rains since mid-October led to a 6% reduction in their total grain area.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since marking a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways, seeing limited upward movement due to overhead resistance. While the absence of bullish signals has been disappointing, managed funds continue to maintain a significant net short position. This suggests the potential for a short covering rally to emerge at any moment, especially as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Market weakness pushed July ’24 Chicago wheat below the 50-day moving average but 548 ½ initial support remains intact so far. If support holds, and prices rally back, they could still encounter resistance near the recent high of 574 ¾, before testing 585 – 620. Otherwise, if July ‘24 closes below 548 ¼, it remains at risk of drifting further to test the March low of 523 ½.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ½ in the July ’24 might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since February, Minneapolis wheat has largely been rangebound, except for a temporary dip to set a new contract low, from which prices have recovered. Although a lack of bullish drivers and resistance from the 50-day moving average remain, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen as we approach late spring and early summer. Furthermore, managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position, that potentially sets the stage for a short covering rally at any moment.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Despite recent bearish market reversals, July ’24 Minneapolis wheat remains rangebound since posting a low on April 3. Initial support below the market rests near 632, with the 625 ¼ April low just below that. Should these levels hold, and prices rally above 660 – 677 resistance, they could potentially test 700 – 712. If not, the market could drift toward 595 – 600 psychological support.

Other Charts / Weather

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4-17 End of Day: A Lack of Bullish News and Technical Selling Weighed on Corn and Wheat

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A lack of fresh news kept the corn market in a tight 3 ½ cent range for the day, with lower weekly ethanol production and lower wheat counterbalancing any positive influence from the higher soybean market.

  • July soybeans saw a recovery from overnight lows in choppy trade to settle 5 ¼ cents off its high in a relatively tight 12 ¾ cent range. Support came mostly from higher soybean meal that saw support from higher basis values. Meanwhile, bean oil experienced marginal gains as it settled mid-range attempting to recover from recent weakness.

  • Carryover weakness from lower Matif wheat futures and a general lack of fresh bullish news weighed on the wheat complex that saw technical selling in both Chicago and KC once prices breached yesterday’s lows.

  • To see the updated US 6 – 10 day and 8 – 14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks courtesy of NOAA and The Climate Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn remains a follower of other grains as fresh news is lacking in the corn market. Wednesday’s lower prices saw continued choppy trade with a narrow daily trading range.

  • The weekly ethanol production report saw ethanol production for the week drop 6.9% lower than last week and 4.0% from last year to 983 million barrels/day. Total corn used for ethanol production last week was 97.57 mb, which was light to meet the average needed to reach USDA targets. Current ethanol stocks are plentiful, running 3.15% over last year.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales tomorrow morning. Last week saw disappointing corn sales totals of 326,000 mt. The market will be looking for new sales to total closer to the 1.0 mmt mark. Current corn sales and shipments are trending well ahead of last year’s levels.

  • A strong weather system followed by cool temperatures will likely slow the planting pace in many areas of the Corn Belt into the end of the week. Last week, corn planting was 6% complete nationally.

  • The corn market may see additional selling pressure moving into the end of the month. Producers who hold basis contracts will need to price or roll those contracts by first notice day, April 30, for May futures. This could bring a natural selling environment into the weak market tone for the corn market.

Above: The corn market transitioned lead months from May to July making the chart look like prices have gapped higher due to the 11-cent premium to July. The market remains largely rangebound and a close above could allow prices to test the 495 – 510 area. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s April Supply and Demand report failed to provide significant bullish data to prompt substantial short covering, as it mainly reflected recent demand challenges and an increase in ending stocks that aligned with the market’s expectations. However, Managed Money retains a considerable net short position near 139,000 contracts, as of the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel a short covering rally should complications arise during planting season, which has just begun. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher but have trended significantly lower since the recent high, which was made on March 21. July futures are now down 76 cents from that point and are also only 24 cents above the contract low from the end of February. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher as well.

  • Soybean sales estimates for tomorrow’s export sales report are between 250,000 and 400,000 mt. There were three flash sales reported last week to unknown destinations which will show up in tomorrow’s report. Export activity has been sluggish, attributed to the ongoing Brazilian harvest.

  • In Brazil, soybean exports for April are projected to hit 13.74 mmt, up from the previous month’s 12.73 mmt. Sales for the 23/24 season are anticipated to reach 41.6% of the expected output, slightly lower than the 43% recorded in the previous year. Estimates for the country’s total production vary, with the USDA providing a high-end estimate of 156 mmt.

  • Monday’s NOPA crush report brought positive news regarding the crush side, revealing that 196.406 mb were crushed in March, indicating robust domestic demand. However, the unexpectedly higher soybean oil stocks had a bearish impact.

Above: After closing below the 50-day moving average and 1168 support, the market is at risk of drifting lower and testing support between 1140 and the February low of 1128 ½. However, the market is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive to a move higher. For now, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average of 1178 ½ with heavier resistance remaining near the recent high of 1226 ¾.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across the board, with both Chicago and KC posting double-digit losses, despite some easing up of the US Dollar. Matif futures also settled lower on the day, even though the overly wet conditions in France and parts of Europe that are affecting the crop. With little fundamental news to support today’s move, it may be mostly technical in nature.

  • Precipitation this week throughout the Midwest and the Plains will benefit both spring and winter wheat conditions. However, southern wheat areas like Kansas did not receive much of the moisture, which may keep their winter wheat crop conditions on the lower side.

  • The International Grains Council reports that the May FOB price for Russian wheat remains at $210 per mt, exerting continued pressure on the US market. Furthermore, LSEG Commodities Research has revised their estimate for Russian wheat production to 89.8 mmt, a 1.6% increase from their previous forecast. This projection excludes wheat production from occupied Ukrainian territory, and the rise in production is attributed to favorable weather conditions, including warmer temperatures and adequate soil moisture levels, benefiting both winter and spring wheat crops.

  • Iraq’s Minister of Commerce claims that the country is self-sufficient in food and wheat supplies for six months. Moreover, the Ministry of Agriculture anticipates a wheat harvest exceeding seven mmt. It’s reported that Iraq requires between 4.5 to 5 mmt of wheat annually to meet the needs of its 43 million people.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since marking a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways, seeing limited upward movement due to overhead resistance. While the absence of bullish signals has been disappointing, managed funds continue to maintain a significant net short position. This suggests the potential for a short covering rally to emerge at any moment, especially as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat transitioned lead contracts from May to July, like corn and soybeans, and the premium in the July contract places it above the 50-day moving average, though general market weakness remains. If July ’24 closes below initial resistance near 548 ¼, it remains at risk of drifting further to test the March low of 523 ½. If 548 ¼ holds, and prices rally higher, they could still encounter resistance near the recent high of 574 ¾, and again in the 585 – 620 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ½ in the July ’24 might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since February, Minneapolis wheat has largely been rangebound, except for a temporary dip to set a new contract low, from which prices have recovered. Although a lack of bullish drivers and resistance from the 50-day moving average remain, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen as we approach late spring and early summer. Furthermore, managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position, that potentially sets the stage for a short covering rally at any moment.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The April 11 close below 638 confirmed the reversal from the 50-day moving average the day before and suggests that prices may slide lower toward the April 3 low, with psychological support near 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼ below that. If bullish input enters the market to turn prices back higher, overhead resistance may still be found in the 660 – 670 area.

Other Charts / Weather

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4-16 End of Day: Weakness in the Soybean Complex Weighs on Corn, While Wheat Closes Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • With little fresh news, the corn market saw choppy trade that was caught between a lower soybean complex and a mixed wheat complex. The overall trend remains sideways with support below the market still holding.

  • Soybeans extended yesterday’s decline, initially influenced by lower soybean oil prices. At midday, additional pressure came from falling soybean meal, which drove beans to fresh six-week lows.

  • Soybean oil remained pressured from lower palm oil and yesterday’s NOPA crush data revealing higher-than-anticipated stock numbers, that suggest weaker-than-expected demand for biofuel use. Additionally, meal prices faced further downward pressure due to technical selling, particularly after breaking below the 50-day moving average.

  • The wheat market closed mixed, with KC leading Minneapolis higher, potentially influenced by a 6% decrease in the good to excellent ratings in Kansas. Meanwhile, Chicago continued its downward trend from yesterday, ending the day lower but near mid-range.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA and The Weather Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A quiet news day led to selling pressure in the corn market as prices are overall trending sideways to lower, caught between losses in the soybean market and mixed trade in the wheat futures.  Technically, corn markets are testing and for today holding support levels under the corn market.

  • The USDA released crop progress and planting pace for corn on Monday afternoon. Currently, the corn crop is 6% planted, slightly below expectations and 1% above the 5-year average. Big planting jumps were seen in Missouri, North Carolina, and Kansas. Typically, corn is 27-30% planted by the end of April.

  • Weather forecasts and the planting pace will now be the focus of the corn market. Expectations are for temperatures to stay above normal into the end of April, but precipitation looks to stay active during this time window. A wetter pattern may slow planting progress into next week.

  • The US Dollar maintained its upward momentum, which is limiting the rally potential in the corn market, as the strong dollar index makes exports originating from the US more expensive.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 425 down below. If prices can breakout and close above resistance between the recent high of 448 and the January high of 452 ¼, they could run toward the next major resistance level of 495 – 510. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Above: Corn percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s April Supply and Demand report failed to provide significant bullish data to prompt substantial short covering, as it mainly reflected recent demand challenges and an increase in ending stocks that aligned with the market’s expectations. However, Managed Money retains a considerable net short position near 139,000 contracts, as of the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel a short covering rally should complications arise during planting season, which has just begun. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the second consecutive day and again were bear spread with the front months posting the bulk of the losses compared to the deferred months. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower as well, but soybean oil had larger losses as it followed palm oil lower.

  • Today, crushing group Abiove revised their estimate of Brazilian soybean production higher to 160.3 mmt which throws more confusion into the mix as the USDA kept its estimate at 155 mmt, and CONAB remains much lower at 146 mmt. The discrepancy between estimates is strange considering that 85% of the crop is now reported as harvested.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean planting at 3% complete in the US, which is up from the trade guess at 2% and also up from the 5-year average of 1%. The 7-day forecast features a good amount of rain for eastern Texas as well as central Midwest.

  • Yesterday’s NOPA crush report was bearish as it showed soybean oil stocks higher than expectations at 1.851 B/lbs compared to the trade guess of 1.79. Soybean crush was a record for the month of March at 196.406 mb but was below expectations.

Above: After closing below the 50-day moving average and 1168 support, the market is at risk of drifting lower and testing support between 1140 and the February low of 1128 ½. However, the market is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive to a move higher. For now, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average of 1178 ½ with heavier resistance remaining near the recent high of 1226 ¾.

Above: Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat ended the session mixed; Chicago contracts were lower, while KC and Minneapolis were marginally higher. The US Dollar Index continues to climb higher limiting upside potential, and a lack of new fundamental supportive news is keeping wheat relatively rangebound.

  • The USDA’s Crop Progress report from yesterday indicated a 1% decline in the winter wheat condition, now at 55% rated good to excellent, compared to 27% at this time last year. Additionally, 11% of the crop is now headed, surpassing last year’s 9% and the 7% average. Moreover, 7% of the spring wheat crop has been planted, contrasting with 2% last year and the 6% average.

  • Ukraine’s winter crops, particularly wheat and barley, are reported to be in favorable condition by Ukraine’s Hydrometeorological Center. Despite relatively dry conditions this month, the crops have benefited from unseasonably warm temperatures since January, potentially leading to a production level meeting or exceeding last year’s, as suggested by the head of agriculture at the weather center.

  • In contrast, the USDA ag attaché in Ukraine has forecasted a decrease in grain production and exports for 24/25, potentially due to the ongoing war rather than weather factors. Profitability concerns since the onset of the conflict may lead to reduced acreage for the upcoming marketing year, and logistical challenges in the Black Sea region may hamper exports.

  • According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the El Nino weather pattern has concluded, potentially paving the way for La Nina conditions. However, uncertainties remain regarding the shift to La Nina, contrary to some forecasts. If La Nina does manifest, it could bring cooler and wetter weather to eastern Australia.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since marking a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways, seeing limited upward movement due to overhead resistance. While the absence of bullish signals has been disappointing, managed funds continue to maintain a significant net short position. This suggests the potential for a short covering rally to emerge at any moment, especially as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market has fallen away from the 50-day moving average and may be at risk of testing the 523 ½ low if it closes below 537. If prices turn back around and close back above the 50-day moving average, they could still encounter resistance in the 585 – 620 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Above: Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The April 11 close below 638 confirmed the reversal from the 50-day moving average the day before and suggests that prices may slide lower toward the April 3 low, with psychological support near 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼ below that. If bullish input enters the market to turn prices back higher, overhead resistance may still be found in the 660 – 670 area.

Above: Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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4-15 End of Day: Grains Red to Start the Week, Middle East Conflict Intensifies

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures started the week on a weaker note piggybacking on double-digit losses seen across the board in soybean futures.

  • Soybeans, soybean meal and oil all closed lower to start the week. Despite today’s price action, NOPA US soybean crush for the month of March was reported today at a new all-time record of 196.4 million bushels.

  • Wheat futures fell to start the week as the US Dollar Index traded to a new high for its recent move. Tensions appear to be on the upward trend between Israel and Iran, yet grains and energy futures were for the most part quietly lower today.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA and The Weather Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure returned to the corn market to start the week. Weakness was seen throughout the entire grain complex led lower by double-digit losses in the soybean market as the price move gave back some of Friday’s gains.

  • Weather forecasts and the planting pace will now be the focus of the corn market. Expectations are for temperatures to stay above normal into the end of April, but precipitation looks to stay active during this time window. Overall, the current weather forecast should allow for a decent planting pace.

  • USDA crop progress will be released on Monday afternoon. Last week, corn planting was 3% complete versus a 5-year average of 2%. Planting pace should look to make gains in the weeks ahead.

  • Weekly export inspections for corn totaled 1.33 MMT (52.4 mb), which was within market expectations. Total inspections for the marketing year are now 1.129 billion bushels, up 34% from last year.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn to Mexico. Mexico purchased 165,000 MT of corn, which was split with 135,000 MT for this marketing year and 30,000 MT for the 2024-25 marketing year.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 425 down below. If prices can breakout and close above resistance between the recent high of 448 and the January high of 452 ¼, they could run toward the next major resistance level of 495 – 510. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 3,998 contracts between April 2 – April 9, bringing their total position to a net short 263,554 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s April Supply and Demand report failed to provide significant bullish data to prompt substantial short covering, as it mainly reflected recent demand challenges and an increase in ending stocks that aligned with the market’s expectations. However, Managed Money retains a considerable net short position near 139,000 contracts, as of the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel a short covering rally should complications arise during planting season, which has just begun. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed significantly lower to start the week, with losses in the front month outweighing those in the new crop months. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower as well, but the larger losses were in soybean meal. Crude oil was lower today despite an escalation in the Middle East with Iran attacking Israel, and soybean oil followed crude lower.

  • The NOPA crush report was released today and showed 196.406 million bushels of soybeans crushed in March. This was slightly below expectations, which were around 197 mb, but were still a record high for March. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.851B/lbs, which was higher than the expectations of 1.79.

  • Today’s weekly inspections report showed soybean inspections totaling 15.9 mb for the week ending April 11. Total inspections are now at 1.398 bb for 23/24 and are down 18% from the previous year. Last week, two flash sales were announced which was encouraging given the lack of sales recently.

  • In Brazil, harvest is continuing at a good clip with the most recent progress called at 85.13% complete, which compares to 86.29% at this time a year ago. Rains had previously delayed some progress but have dried up now. Despite harvest, premiums in Brazil have been rising due to a lack of farmer selling.

Above: After closing below the 50-day moving average and 1168 support, the market is at risk of drifting lower and testing support between 1140 and the February low of 1128 ½. However, the market is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive to a move higher. For now, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average of 1178 ½ with heavier resistance remaining near the recent high of 1226 ¾.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,054 contracts between April 2 – April 9, bringing their total position to a net short 139,310 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat finished with losses across the board. The US Dollar Index did make a new near-term high today, which is not helping the grain complex. The fact that Matif wheat futures closed mixed to lower was also unhelpful.

  • Weekly wheat inspections were decent at 20.3 mb, and this brings the 23/24 inspections total to 585 mb. However, inspections are running below the USDA’s estimated pace, and they are still projecting 710 mb of export (which was unchanged in last week’s report).

  • April Russian wheat exports are expected to be record large at 4.4 mmt. March was also a record, with 4.8 mmt exported. And while Russia’s FOB values are said to still be on the rise, their export numbers do not bode well for the US market.

  • Northern Europe has seen a wet spring, which is affecting crop development of important crops, including barley and wheat. Since record keeping started in 1958, this was the fifth most wet March on the books for France. Rainfall over the winter was also unusually high.

  • The nation of Kazakhstan has reportedly extended their wheat import ban for an additional six months, according to their ag ministry. This is an effort to prevent the domestic market from declining, with the ministry stating that illegal wheat imports had previously caused internal prices to fall by more than 50%. Additionally, they claim that up to 2 mmt of wheat used to be illegally imported each year.

  • According to the Ukrainian ag ministry, their grain exports have fallen 4% year on year, since the season began on July 1. However, wheat in particular saw a 9% year on year increase to 14.7 mmt. And so far for the month of April, wheat exports have reached 386,000 mt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since marking a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways, seeing limited upward movement due to overhead resistance. While the absence of bullish signals has been disappointing, managed funds continue to maintain a significant net short position. This suggests the potential for a short covering rally to emerge at any moment, especially as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market has fallen away from the 50-day moving average and may be at risk of testing the 523 ½ low if it closes below 537. If prices turn back around and close back above the 50-day moving average, they could still encounter resistance in the 585 – 620 area.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,376 contracts between April 2 – April 9, bringing their total position to a net short 86,568 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,137 contracts between April 2 – April 9, bringing their total position to a net short 44,611 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The April 11 close below 638 confirmed the reversal from the 50-day moving average the day before and suggests that prices may slide lower toward the April 4 low, with psychological support near 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼ below that. If bullish input enters the market to turn prices back higher, overhead resistance may still be found in the 660 – 670 area.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,437 contracts between April 2 – April 9, bringing their total position to a net short 27,107 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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4-12 End of Day: Markets Recover from Yesterday’s Bearish Report and Close in the Green

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market rebounded from yesterday’s losses and selling pressure throughout the week to settle within 2 cents of the day’s highs and post a 1 ¼ cent net gain on the week. Although prices closed at the upper end of the day’s range, they remain largely rangebound.

  • After a modest start to the day, soybeans gained strength following the report of a third flash sale for the week to unknown destinations and closed the day near the top end of a 25 ¾ cent range. Further support came from sharply higher soybean meal, which could have triggered some short covering going into the weekend.

  • All three wheat classes closed higher today, mirroring the uptrend in Matif wheat. Heightened tensions in the Middle East and Black Sea regions possibly fueled the market’s rebound from yesterday’s somewhat bearish USDA report and the strengthening US Dollar Index. KC and Minneapolis wheat closed near their session highs, while Chicago wheat settled in the middle of its trading range.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and 1 and 2-week precipitation forecasts for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 252,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices posted some recovery today after the USDA report yesterday and pressure throughout the week. The overall direction for the corn market is still a sideways pattern, but May corn futures closed 1 ¼ cents higher for the week.

  • Argentina’s corn production saw reductions this week by groups of analysts as a leafhopper infestation has triggered infections of “Stunt disease”, limiting the yield in the soon to be harvested crop. The crop reductions have improved the premiums of Argentine corn.

  • The positive on the Thursday USDA report was the increase in demand adjustments for ethanol and feed usage, reflecting the strong corn disappearance during the first quarter as shown by the USDA’s Grain Stock report.

  • The current stocks-to-use ratio in corn is 14.5%, which is the largest in the past 5 years. The projected stocks-to-use ratio for the 24/25 marketing year is currently 15.9%, the highest since 2006. The large supply potential of US corn will keep rallies limited without some true bullish news event.

  • Weather forecasts and the planting pace will now be the focus of the corn market. Expectations are for temperatures to stay above normal into the end of April, which could allow for planting progress to pick up speed for this year’s US corn crop. The biggest near-term concern could be wetness in the eastern Corn Belt with predicted rains.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 425 down below. If prices can breakout and close above resistance between the recent high of 448 and the January high of 452 ¼, they could run toward the next major resistance level of 495 – 510. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s April Supply and Demand report failed to provide significant bullish data to prompt substantial short covering, as it mainly reflected recent demand challenges and an increase in ending stocks that aligned with the market’s expectations. However, Managed Money retains a considerable net short position near 138,000 contracts, as of the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel a short covering rally should complications arise during planting season, which has just begun. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly higher and ended the week with the May contract recovering most of the past two days’ losses and closing just below the 40-day moving average. End-of-week profit taking and a flash sale reported this morning were likely supportive to prices today. Soybean meal ended sharply higher while soybean oil was lower.

  • For the week, May soybeans lost 11 cents, and November soybeans lost 8 ½, to close at 1174 and 1176 ¼ respectively. May soybean meal gained $11.30 to close at $344.40, and May soybean oil lost 3.00 cents and closed at 45.89 cents. The bulk of this week’s gains in soybean meal were achieved today. Soybean oil has been dragged lower by palm oil.

  • This morning, the USDA reported that 124,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year. This was the third sale to unknown destinations announced this week and the fourth in the past two weeks after a long period with none.

  • Yesterday, CONAB released its estimate for Brazilian soybean production which saw it lowered to 146.5 mmt. A few hours later, the USDA released its estimate but made no changes from last month and kept the number steady at 155 mmt. This is a large discrepancy which should narrow as harvest nears completion.

Above: After closing below the 50-day moving average and 1168 support, the market is at risk of drifting lower and testing support between 1140 and the February low of 1128 ½. However, the market is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive to a move higher. For now, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average of 1178 ½ with heavier resistance remaining near the recent high of 1226 ¾.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three wheat classes finished the session with gains, despite a rising US Dollar and somewhat bearish tone to yesterday’s USDA report. It is possible that funds were covering some of their short positions in the grain complex due to global uncertainty, with two major wars escalating. There is some concern that the Israel / Hamas conflict may expand beyond that region with the threat of retaliation from Iran after recent attacks against some of their leaders.

  • Paris milling wheat finished 1.75 to 2.50 Euros per mt higher today. Although it remains in a relatively sideways pattern, today’s rally may be tied to declining conditions for the French wheat crop. Conditions are reported to have declined to 64% good to excellent due to weather issues, namely overly wet weather.

  • Russia is reported to have attacked and destroyed the Trypillya coal-fired power plant near Kyiv, Ukraine that provided power to about three million customers. Russia has become more aggressive towards Ukraine’s power facilities as they target infrastructure. It is worth noting that this is not the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant that has been in previous headlines.

  • The US Dollar Index rallied above the 106 level today and at the time of writing, is maintaining that strength. The index has not been this high since early November and is showing no signs of slowing down. Though wheat finished positive today, this could act as an anchor for the market as it makes it more expensive for importing nations to buy US goods.

  • The Australian Weather Bureau forecasts that the majority of their primary crop regions will experience rainfall levels ranging from median to above median during the June to August period, improving the chances for better yields of winter crops, including wheat.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since marking a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways, seeing limited upward movement due to overhead resistance. While the absence of bullish signals has been disappointing, managed funds continue to maintain a significant net short position. This suggests the potential for a short covering rally to emerge at any moment, especially as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market has fallen away from the 50-day moving average and may be at risk of testing the 523 ½ low if it closes below 537. If prices turn back around and close back above the 50-day moving average, they could still encounter resistance in the 585 – 620 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The April 11 close below 638 confirmed the reversal from the 50-day moving average the day before and suggests that prices may slide lower toward the April 4 low, with psychological support near 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼ below that. If bullish input enters the market to turn prices back higher, overhead resistance may still be found in the 660 – 670 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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4-11 End of Day: Markets Close Lower Following USDA’s Neutral to Bearish WASDE Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A smaller than expected drop in 23/24 corn carryout and disappointing weekly export sales figures, that were a marketing year low, contributed to the negativity in the corn market, which posted a bearish reversal and closed just off the session’s lows.

  • The soybean market closed mid-range and well below major moving averages following a neutral to bearish USDA report that showed US ending stocks above the average trade guess and no downward revisions to South American production.

  • Soybean oil closed sharply lower, as bean oil stocks in today’s WASDE report rose by 45 million lbs on increased production and imports. Meal on the other hand saw no changes in its balance sheet and settled higher, which helped offset oil’s negative influence on beans.

  • Higher than anticipated US ending stocks and increases to both Russian and Ukrainian export estimates by the USDA weighed on all three classes of wheat. Both May Chicago and Minneapolis continued their slides from yesterday’s highs, and while KC traded lower, it held support between the 50 and 20-day moving averages. All three closed near session lows.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the US Drought Monitor, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 252,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures, like the rest of the grain markets, were under pressure during the session. The combination of disappointing export sales, and an overall neutral to bearish USDA WASDE report kept sellers active in the corn market. The weak price action will leave the market open to additional selling pressure into the end of the week.

  • The USDA lowered corn ending stocks to 2.122 billion bushels in today’s WASDE report. This was accomplished by adding 25 mb to feed usage demand and 25 md added to ethanol usage. This was still slightly above market expectations but reflected the good domestic corn demand in the first quarter.

  • In South American corn production, the USDA stayed relatively unchanged in their production forecasts. The USDA lowered their Argentina corn crop forecast by 1 mmt to 55 mmt, and left the Brazil forecast unchanged at 124 mmt. These numbers still hold a large spread over analyst and private forecasts for each country.

  • Weekly corn export sales were disappointing last week at 12.8 mb (325,500 mt).  This was a marketing year low and well below the range of analysts’ expectations. Japan was the largest buyer of US corn last week, and total export commitments for the marketing year stand at 1.739 billion bushels, up 17% from a year ago.

  • With the USDA report passed, the market will shift its focus to weather forecasts. Expectations are for temperatures into the end of April to stay above normal, which could allow for planting progress to pick up speed for this year’s US corn crop. The biggest near-term concern could be wet planting in the eastern corn belt with predicted rains.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can breakout and close above resistance between the recent high of 448 and the January high of 452 ¼, they could run toward the next major resistance level of 495 – 510. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s April Supply and Demand report failed to provide significant bullish data to prompt substantial short covering, as it mainly reflected recent demand challenges and an increase in ending stocks that aligned with the market’s expectations. However, Managed Money retains a considerable net short position near 138,000 contracts, as of the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel a short covering rally should complications arise during planting season, which has just begun. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower following a neutral to slightly bearish WASDE report which notably did not show a downward revision in Brazilian soybean production. May soybeans moved further away from and closed well below the 40-day moving average which had previously been support. Soybean meal closed higher while soybean oil was lower along with palm oil.

  • Key takeaways from today’s USDA report include the absence of adjustments to Argentina and Brazil’s estimated soybean production, which remain at 55 mmt and 155 mmt, respectively, both above trade estimates. US ending stocks saw an increase to 340 mb from last month’s 315 mb exceeding trade estimates. Furthermore, world ending soybean stocks were slightly lower than the previous month’s estimate at 114.22 mmt, also surpassing the average trade guess.

  • This morning before the USDA report, Brazil’s CONAB released their own estimates for soybean production which was decreased to 146.522 mmt and is significantly lower than the 156 mmt that the USDA projected today.

  • The weekly export sales report released today revealed an increase of 11.2 mb in soybean sales for the 23/24 season, falling on the lower end of expectations. Last week’s export shipments amounted to 18.5 mb, surpassing the 14.2 mb per week required to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 1.720 bb for 23/24. Primary destinations included China, Egypt, and Mexico.

Above: After closing below the 50-day moving average and 1168 support, the market is at risk of drifting lower and testing support between 1140 and the February low of 1128 ½. However, the market is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive to a move higher. For now, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average of 1180 ½ with heavier resistance remaining near the recent high of 1226 ¾.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat prices declined across all three US futures categories, mirroring movements in Paris milling wheat futures. The primary influence today stemmed from the release of the monthly WASDE report, which highlighted elevated US ending stocks and expansions in Russian and Ukrainian exports.

  • US wheat ending stocks were estimated at 697 mb, which was above the trade guess of 685 mb and the 673 mb estimate in March. As far as the world numbers are concerned, wheat carryout had little change at 258.3 mmt; the trade was looking for 258.6 mmt and for reference, the March figure was 258.8 mmt.

  • Examining specific regions, Argentina’s ending stocks rose to 3.32 mmt from March’s 2.82 mmt, while Brazil’s stood at 1.0 mmt compared to 1.12 mmt previously. Ukraine’s stocks decreased to 1.58 mmt from 3.28 mmt, with Russia remaining unchanged at 12.44 mmt. Notably, the USDA raised both Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports by 1 mmt and 1.5 mmt, respectively. Australian exports were also raised by 0.5 mmt, while the EU saw a reduction of 2 mmt.

  • In addition to the WASDE report, the market received weekly export sales data. The USDA reported a 3.0 mb increase in wheat export sales for 23/24 and a 10.1 mb increase for 24/25. Last week’s shipments totaled 23.0 mb, surpassing the 17.8 mb per week needed to meet the export estimate of 710 mb (unchanged from the previous month). Shipments to date stand at 557 mb, down 3% from last year but exceeding the USDA’s estimated pace.

  • According to the USDA as of April 9, about 26% of the US spring wheat crop is in drought, a 1% increase from the previous week. In addition, 18% of the US winter wheat crop area is in drought. This is unchanged from last week, but it remains dry in some areas of the southern Plains and western Corn Belt where recent rains have missed. This may be reflected in declining conditions on next week’s Crop Progress report.

  • Though nearly unchanged at the time of writing, the US Dollar Index scored a fresh near-term high today at 105.52. The higher the trend goes, the less competitive US exports become. This may be one of the main limiting factors for the nearby wheat market.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since marking a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways, seeing limited upward movement due to overhead resistance. While the absence of bullish signals has been disappointing, managed funds continue to maintain a significant net short position. This suggests the potential for a short covering rally to emerge at any moment, especially as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market has fallen away from the 50-day moving average and may be at risk of testing the 523 ½ low if it closes below 537. If prices turn back around and close back above the 50-day moving average, they could still encounter resistance in the 585 – 620 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent turnaround after posting a 662 ¾ high and testing the 50-day moving average indicates heavy resistance in the 660 – 670 area. Prices may still challenge this area and close above it if a bullish catalyst enters the scene. If so, the next major resistance area may be near 700 – 712. If prices slide lower, and close below 638, there’s a risk of retracement towards psychological support at 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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4-10 End of Day: Markets Close Mixed Ahead of Tomorrow’s USDA WASDE Update

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn closed within pennies of its 50-day moving average for the 5th consecutive day as it traded in a tight 5-cent range and continues to consolidate ahead of tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report. Solid weekly ethanol production numbers and higher wheat prices lent support, while lower soybean prices limited gains.

  • Despite a flash sale to unknown destinations, soybeans went from higher overnight to lower during the day session, with additional pressure coming from the higher US Dollar and increased technical selling once last week’s low of 1168 ½ was breached.

  • Soybean meal closed lower on the day and contributed to the weakness in the soybean pit. Meal saw increased technical selling below the 20-day moving average, while buying support for soybean oil held down near its 50-day moving average and helped it close in the green with further support from higher crude oil.

  • The wheat complex settled higher with support coming from higher Matif wheat futures. KC showed the strongest gains, closing near its highs, while Chicago and Minneapolis turned lower to close near their lows after testing their respective 50-day moving averages.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, NASA-Grace root zone drought indicators for the US and South America, and 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA and NASA-Grace scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 252,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market stayed trapped between the other grains during the session. Selling pressure in the soybean market limited gains, but positive trade in the wheat markets provided support as the market stayed choppy.

  • The USDA will release the April WASDE report tomorrow, Thursday, April 11. Expectations are for corn ending stocks to be reduced to 2.102 billion bushels, down 70 mb from last month. This should reflect the strong first quarter corn usage as reflected in last month’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report.

  • The corn production numbers for Brazil and Argentina may be more of a focus for the market on the WASDE report.  Current USDA estimates are well above analyst estimates for both Argentina and Brazil corn crops. Traders will be watching to see if the gap between the two narrows. The Brazilian Ag agency, CONAB, will also release its production estimates on Thursday morning.

  • The USDA will release weekly corn sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for new sales range from 750,000 –1.3 mmt. Last week, new corn sales totaled 947,000 mt.  

  • Weather forecasts for temperatures into the end of April are predicted to stay above normal, which could allow for planting progress to pick up speed for this year’s US corn crop. The biggest near-term concern could be wet planting in the eastern corn belt with predicted rains.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can breakout and close above resistance between the recent high of 448 and the January high of 452 ¼, they could run toward the next major resistance level of 495 – 510. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA gave little in the way of outright bullish information to trigger great amounts of short covering as their March 1 stocks and prospective soybean plantings estimates were relatively neutral and came in as expected by the market. That said, Managed Money still held a sizable 135,000 contract net short position in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, which can still fuel a short covering rally if issues come up this season, with planting not that far off. Otherwise, prices may still be at risk of retesting the recent lows this spring if weather stays benign and planting goes smoothly.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the third consecutive day, mainly due to pressure from lower soybean meal, while soybean oil made a recovery and finished the day slightly higher. A big bearish factor today was the sharp increase in the US Dollar Index which makes US exports more expensive, and slow exports have already been an issue.

  • Today, consumer price index (CPI) data was released by the Labor Department, which showed that consumer prices rose by 3.5% in March from the previous year. The consumer price index rose by 0.4% from February to March instead of the 0.3% that was expected, and this has traders concerned that with inflation higher than expected, interest rates may not be lowered this year. This caused the dollar to rally, which is typically bearish for commodities.

  • This morning, private exporters reported a flash sale of 254,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. Estimates for tomorrow’s Export Sales report have soybean sales between 200k and 600k tons, and the report will include the 152,000 mt flash sale reported last week.

  • Tomorrow, the USDA will release its WASDE report at 11am CDT. No major changes are anticipated, but estimates are for US ending stocks to increase slightly by 4 mb to 319 mb and for world ending stocks to decrease slightly. In South America, Argentine soybean production is expected to increase by 0.4 mmt to 50.4 mmt. In Brazil, the USDA is expected to lower their production by 2.7 mmt to 152.3 mmt.

Above: After closing below the 50-day moving average and 1168 support, the market is at risk of drifting lower and testing support between 1140 and the February low of 1128 ½. However, the market is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive to a move higher. For now, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average of 1180 ½ with heavier resistance remaining near the recent high of 1226 ¾.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Though Kansas City wheat ended with double-digit gains, Chicago did not show much strength, but it was able to claw its way back to a positive close with support from Matif wheat, which gained 2.75-3.50 euros today. Minneapolis also posted small gains. The strength in the wheat complex came despite the US Dollar rising to the highest level since mid-November after today’s CPI data indicated inflation was higher than expected.

  • Some of today’s strength in wheat may have stemmed from reports that Russian wheat FOB values have steadily climbed by $14 over the past three weeks. They remain the world’s cheapest offer and at a $20 discount to France and Germany, but with the gap beginning to narrow, it may allow US wheat to become more competitive down the road.

  • Traders will shift their focus tomorrow towards the highly anticipated monthly WASDE report. Regarding wheat, significant changes are not anticipated. Global carryout is expected to remain steady at 258.6 mmt, nearly unchanged from last month’s 258.8 mmt, yet lower compared to 271.1 mmt from the previous year. The average ending stocks estimate for US wheat stands at 685 mb, up from 673 mb in March and from 570 mb last year. Estimates for wheat production in 24/25 won’t be disclosed tomorrow; traders will need to await the May WASDE report for that information.

  • Two vessels destined for Egypt carrying Russian wheat were held up at Russian ports due to quality concerns. One of the ships is now on the way after Egypt’s Foreign Ministry stepped in to resolve the dispute; some are suggesting that the Kremlin is attempting to take more control of exports. On a related note, there has been talk that Russia may count crop production in occupied Ukrainian territory towards their own numbers. This would bring Russia’s wheat crop from 90-92 mmt to 100 mmt, but the USDA may not acknowledge these adjustments.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since making a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways with relatively small gains capped by overhead resistance. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market remains oversold on a macro level, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both of these factors could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market has fallen away from the 50-day moving average and may be at risk of testing the 523 ½ low if it closes below 537. If prices turn back around and close back above the 50-day moving average, they could still encounter resistance in the 585 – 620 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent turnaround after posting a 662 ¾ high and testing the 50-day moving average indicates heavy resistance in the 660 – 670 area. Prices may still challenge this area and close above it if a bullish catalyst enters the scene. If so, the next major resistance area may be near 700 – 712. If prices slide lower, and close below 638, there’s a risk of retracement towards psychological support at 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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4-9 End of Day: Markets Close Mostly Lower, but Remain Largely Rangebound

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market remains in a sideways trend as traders anticipate Thursday’s USDA WASDE report, which led to volatile two-sided trading. Weakness from neighboring corn and wheat markets, coupled with additional selling pressure near the 50-day moving average, added to the market’s negative tone.

  • The soybean market drifted from its 50-day moving average amid choppy two-sided trade and weakness from both soybean meal and oil, despite a flash sale to unknown destinations. It remains in a sideways trend with limited market-moving news as traders await Thursday’s USDA report.

  • Soybean oil traded toward the lower end of the current 47.00 – 50.00 cent range, influenced by declines in crude oil and lower Chinese palm and soybean oil prices. Additionally, meal settled lower for the first time in five sessions, as it faced selling pressure near its 50-day moving average.

  • Softer Matif wheat futures, combined with better-than-expected winter wheat conditions, weighed down the wheat complex, resulting in mostly lower closings across the board. While both Chicago and KC contracts retreated from their respective 50-day moving averages and settled well below their highs, Minneapolis contracts managed to recover much of the day’s losses and settled near session highs.

  • To see the updated US 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 252,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure across the grain complex weighed on corn futures during the session. The weak price action leaves the corn market vulnerable to further downside pressure and liquidation as the May contract is looking to test the low for the month of April at 424 ½ from April 2.

  • Seasonality may be working against the corn market with potential price weakness into the end of the month. Producers who hold May basis contracts will need to decide to price or roll these positions before the month’s end. This market structure can lead to selling pressure.

  • The USDA Crop Progress report released on Monday afternoon showed corn planting in its beginning stages nationally at 3% complete. This was even with last year, and 1% ahead of the 5-year average.  

  • Weather forecast for temperatures into the end of April are predicted to stay above normal, which could allow for planting progress to pick up speed for this year’s US corn crop.

  • The USDA will release the April WASDE report on Thursday, April 11.  Expectations are for corn ending stocks to be reduced to 2.102 billion bushels, down 70 mb from last month. This should reflect the strong first quarter corn usage as reflected in last month’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can breakout and close above resistance between the recent high of 448 and the January high of 452 ¼, they could run toward the next major resistance level of 495 – 510. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Above: 24/25 corn percent planted seen at 3% (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA gave little in the way of outright bullish information to trigger great amounts of short covering as their March 1 stocks and prospective soybean plantings estimates were relatively neutral and came in as expected by the market. That said, Managed Money still held a sizable 135,000 contract net short position in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, which can still fuel a short covering rally if issues come up this season, with planting not that far off. Otherwise, prices may still be at risk of retesting the recent lows this spring if weather stays benign and planting goes smoothly.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower with the May contract closing below the 40-day moving average. Pressure came from lower soybean oil along with lower soybean meal. Prices got a boost earlier this morning after a flash sale was announced but faded into the end of the day.

  • This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 124,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year. This was the second flash sale announced within two weeks after a long period of no activity. Premiums in Brazil are reportedly rising which could make US soybeans more competitive.

  • In South America, the Brazilian soybean harvest is pressing on and is reportedly 79% complete which is slightly below last year’s pace. Some of the beans were planted a bit late and recent rains may have delayed the progress. In Argentina, the growing season is winding down and harvest should begin soon.

  • On Thursday, the USDA will release its Supply and Demand report at 11am central time. Early estimates for soybeans are for US ending stocks to increase slightly by 4 mb to 319 mb, and for world ending stocks to decrease slightly. In South America, Argentine soybean production is expected to increase by 0.4 mmt to 50.4 mmt. In Brazil, the USDA is expected to lower their production by 2.7 mmt to 152.3 mmt.

Above: Support around 1168 appears to be holding for now. Should that area continue to hold, and prices close above the recent high around 1227, they could then run toward the 1291 – 1297 chart gap, though resistance might be found near 1250. If prices drop below 1168, they then run the risk of retreating toward 1130 – 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat faded into the end of the session, with a lower close across the board, except for a penny gain in May spring wheat. The pressure stemmed from a decline in Matif futures, alongside lower US corn and soybean prices. Moreover, the US Dollar is positioned near the middle of the recent range ahead of tomorrow’s release of key inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to have risen by 0.3% in March and 3.5% year-over-year. Any deviation from these projections could prompt a market reaction.

  • According to the USDA, the winter wheat crop condition remained steady at 56% rated good to excellent, marking the best condition seen for this time of year since 2020. Additionally, 6% of the crop is currently headed, slightly lower than the 7% reported last year but above the average of 5%. Furthermore, US spring wheat planting progress is at 3%, aligning with the average and surpassing last year’s 1%.

  • Argentina’s Economy Minister has announced plans to lower tariffs on certain herbicide imports starting in April, just one month before the start of wheat planting for the 24/25 season. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported a wheat harvest of 15.1 million metric tons last year.

  • India’s wheat production for the 23/24 season is forecasted to rise to 105.8 million metric tons, a 2.8% increase from the previous year’s 102.9 million metric tons, as reported by the Roller Flour Miller’s Federation. This increase is attributed to expanded planted acreage, estimated at 34 million hectares compared to last year’s 33.6 million hectares, and improved yields. Additionally, the Indian government is expected to boost wheat buying for reserves to 31-32 million metric tons, up from 26.2 million metric tons last year, according to Agriwatch.

  • The USDA projects Russian wheat production at 91.5 million metric tons, while Argus has raised their estimate to 92.1 million metric tons from 90 million previously. Despite the recent rise in Russian wheat FOB values to $210 per metric ton, as reported by IKAR, Russian wheat continues to be the world’s most competitively priced offer, keeping pressure on US futures.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since making a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways with relatively small gains capped by overhead resistance. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market remains oversold on a macro level, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both of these factors could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market has fallen away from the 50-day moving average and may be at risk of testing the 523 ½ low if it closes below 537. If prices turn back around and close back above the 50-day moving average, they could still encounter resistance in the 585 – 620 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Above: Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After posting a key bullish reversal on April 3 and with additional support from being oversold, prices may attempt to extend further and challenge the resistance area around 660 – 670. However, if they fail to rally, they may be at risk of drifting back toward psychological support at 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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4-8 End of Day: Markets Settle Mixed Unable to Hold the Day’s Highs

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Following export inspections that exceeded expectations, the corn market closed with slight gains despite choppy trading within a narrow 6-cent range, as it continues to balance solid export demand and heavy nearby supplies.

  • Although soybean export inspections were in line with expectations and above the pace needed to reach the USDA’s projections, they were unable to sustain soybean’s firmer prices from this morning with weakness carried over from sharply lower soybean oil prices.

  • Weakness from lower Malaysian palm oil and crude oil weighed on soybean oil, which lost 0.99 cents for the day but remained in its range from mid-March. Soybean meal on the other hand continued its upward trend for the fourth day in a row with a modest $2.90 gain.  

  • The wheat complex closed mixed, unable to sustain most of its gains from the early-day rally sparked by reports of renewed attacks on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine. The mixed close in Matif wheat futures likely contributed to additional upward resistance in the market.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 252,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Sideways and choppy trade ruled the day again in the corn market as prices continued to look for directions. The most active May contract had a 6-cent trading range as prices finished slightly higher.

  • The corn market is balancing a combination of an improved demand tone with heavy front-end supplies. End users are comfortable and do not have to bid aggressively to satisfy current needs.

  • Weekly corn export inspections remain strong. Last week, the USDA inspected 55.9 mb (1.424 mmt) of corn for export, which was above the range of analyst expectations. Current shipments are up 35% from last year and ahead of the pace needed for the USDA marketing year targets.

  • The USDA Crop Progress report is scheduled for release this afternoon. Last week, corn planting was 2% complete, primarily in southern states. With a forecast indicating potentially favorable conditions into mid-April, market observers will closely monitor the planting progress of this year’s corn crop in the upcoming weeks.

  • Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its forecast for the Argentina corn crop 52 mmt from 54 mmt last month. The crop has seen damage from “Stunt Disease.” Crop conditions in Argentina have seen an 8% drop in the normal to excellent category over recent weeks.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can breakout and close above resistance between the recent high of 448 and the January high of 452 ¼, they could run toward the next major resistance level of 495 – 510. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 7,826 contracts between March 27 – April 2, bringing their total position to a net short 259,556 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA gave little in the way of outright bullish information to trigger great amounts of short covering as their March 1 stocks and prospective soybean plantings estimates were relatively neutral and came in as expected by the market. That said, Managed Money still held a sizable 135,000 contract net short position in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, which can still fuel a short covering rally if issues come up this season, with planting not that far off. Otherwise, prices may still be at risk of retesting the recent lows this spring if weather stays benign and planting goes smoothly.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after relatively volatile trade, which saw July soybeans up as much as 8 cents earlier in the day before selling off almost immediately. Pressure came from lower soybean oil which was down by over 2% in the May contract as a result of lower palm oil. Soybean meal managed to close moderately higher today.

  • According to Patria Agronegocios, the Brazilian soybean harvest is now 79.33% complete. Recent heavy rains in key growing areas have likely slowed down the harvest pace a bit as the harvest was 81.88% complete at this time last year. Total expected production is still up in the air with CONAB projecting a far lower number than the USDA, but the USDA may adjust its estimate in Thursday’s WASDE report.

  • On Thursday, the USDA will release its Supply and Demand report at 11am central time. Early estimates for soybeans are for US ending stocks to increase slightly by 4 mb to 319 mb, and for world ending stocks to decrease slightly. In South America, Argentine soybean production is expected to increase by 0.4 mmt to 50.4 mmt. In Brazil, the USDA is expected to lower their production by 2.7 mmt to 152.3 mmt which would be in line with what the Ag attaché reported and closer to CONAB’s estimate.

  • Friday’s CFTC report said that as of April 2, funds sold 3,476 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 138,256 contracts. Between corn, soybeans, meal, bean oil, and wheat, funds are short 593,000 contracts which is the largest in years.

Above: Support around 1168 appears to be holding for now. Should that area continue to hold, and prices close above the recent high around 1227, they could then run toward the 1291 – 1297 chart gap, though resistance might be found near 1250. If prices drop below 1168, they then run the risk of retreating toward 1130 – 1140.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,476 contracts between March 27 – April 2, bringing their total position to a net short 138,256 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a mixed close, with gains across the board for KC and Minneapolis futures, but losses in the front months for Chicago. This breaks a three-session higher streak for Chicago futures. Paris milling wheat also had a mixed close which may have offered some weakness to the US market.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 18.3 million bushels, bringing total inspections for the 23/24 season to 634 million bushels. This represents an 11% decrease compared to last year, with wheat inspections currently lagging behind the USDA’s estimated pace.

  • New attacks over the weekend at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant are raising concerns about the potential for a radiological disaster for the surrounding growing region. This plant was the same one that was previously in the news for similar reasons. Despite this news, the wheat market shrugged it off as traders have become numb to these attacks.

  • According to SovEcon, Russia exported 1.03 mmt of grain last week, including 820,000 mt of wheat. That is down from 840,000 the previous week. In addition, IKAR has said that Russian export values ended last week at $210 per mt, which is up $2 from the previous week. Despite the increase, wheat out of the Black Sea region remains the world’s most competitive.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since making a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways with relatively small gains capped by overhead resistance. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market remains oversold on a macro level, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both of these factors could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market remains attracted to the 50-day moving average, and should it break away from this area to the upside, it could still encounter further resistance between 585 and 620. If they break to the downside, on the other hand, prices may run the risk of testing the 523 ½ low if they close below 537.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 158 contracts between March 27 – April 2, bringing their total position to a net short 91,944 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,164 contracts between March 27 – April 2, bringing their total position to a net short 40,474 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After posting a key bullish reversal on April 3 and with additional support from being oversold, prices may attempt to extend further and challenge the resistance area around 660 – 670. However, if they fail to rally, they may be at risk of drifting back toward psychological support at 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,554 contracts between March 27 – April 2, bringing their total position to a net short 28,544 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

Above: Brazil 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center