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5-17 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Post Weak Technical Closes, While Beans Finish Strong

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Sellers were active throughout the day session pressing the corn market lower for the fourth consecutive day. A weak technical picture, a dry window to push planting, and the breakdown in wheat were all contributing factors.

  • The soybean market posted a strong close going into the weekend following a week of consolidation. A strong weekly gain of 0.83 cents in July soybean oil supported soybeans with the its highest close in 3 weeks, while July meal closed the week down $3.10, though $3.70 off the week’s low.

  • Like corn, the wheat complex closed lower for the fourth day in a row after rejecting early rally attempts. All three classes posted bearish reversals on the weekly charts in the July contracts, with Chicago dropping 12 ¼ cents, KC 11 ½, and July Minneapolis 8 ½. The results from the Kansas wheat tour, revealing the best estimated yields in three years, combined with a weak technical picture, encouraged selling pressure.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and updated US Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in July ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that July ’24 posted a bearish double top and bearish reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2023 old crop.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in both July ’24 and Dec ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that Dec ’24 posted a bearish key reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2024 new crop.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • It was a difficult end of the week in the corn market as prices stay under selling pressure with a near-term weather forecast and a technical breakdown in the wheat futures. July corn was 17 ¼ cents lower on the week and 23 cents off this week’s high.

  • With the weak price action, corn futures posted bearish key reversals on the weekly charts, which could indicate a longer-term downward trend is forming. The market will be watching for follow-through selling pressure next week.

  • Near-term weather forecasts reflect a window for producers to push the planting pace. The next 3-4 days overall is looking for dryer conditions and warm temperatures, which could provide that opportunity. Longer-range forecasts are still looking at above average precipitation into the end of the month. A focus will be the planting pace in Iowa and Illinois, which were 13% and 14% respectively behind the 5-year average on the last crop progress report.

  • The 5-year planting pace for next Monday’s crop progress report is near 75% complete. If the current planting pace can be near that level on Monday afternoon, the market will be less concerned and additional weather premium that is in the corn market may be removed, pressuring prices.

Above: On May 17, July ’24 corn closed below the 454 support area, suggesting that prices may continue slide towards the 445 – 440 support area. Should this area hold, and prices turn higher, initial overhead resistance may be found near 454, with heavier resistance near the recent high of 474 ½.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity, while also targeting the 1280 – 1320 range. This is a modest retracement back to the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after a day of mixed trade that saw prices slide during midday before recovering. Soybean meal was mixed with the front months ending higher but deferred months lower. Soybean oil closed higher for the third consecutive day despite the tariff announcement on Tuesday that temporarily drove prices lower.

  • For the week, July soybeans gained 9 cents to 1228, and November soybeans lost 2 ½ cents to close at 1203 ¼. July soybean meal lost $3.10 finishing at $368.80 and July soybean oil gained 0.83 cents at 45.27 cents. Overall, delayed planting due to rains were supportive, but export sales and the NOPA crush numbers were disappointing.

  • In Brazil, the flooded state of Rio Grande do Sul has reportedly harvested 85% of its planted soybean area which is up from 78% last week. Progress remains slow as some areas are still flooded, and there are reports that some food silos have been heavily damaged as well due to the water.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report for soybeans were poor at 9.8 mb in sales for 23/24 and 0.9 mb for 24/25. This was down 38% from last week and down 31% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments for soybeans of 16.3 mb were above the 12.6 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 1.700 billion bushels. Although, total sales commitments are down 16% from a year ago. Primary destinations were to Egypt, China, and Indonesia.

Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted double digit losses in both Chicago and Kansas City contracts, with Minneapolis not far behind. This is the fourth consecutive lower close for July Chicago futures, which are still well above 620 ½ support at the 200-day moving average.  

  • The Kansas wheat crop tour concluded yesterday, with the best estimates in three years. They projected the crop at 290.4 mb with an average yield of 46.5 bpa, which was significantly above the five year average of 42.4 bpa. However, there are still trouble spots and there is still time for dryness to set in that may reduce production.

  • Russia has reduced its wheat export tax to 3,110 Rubles per mt, marking a 2% decrease. Additionally, they reported a loss of about 1% of their planted crop area due to frost, totaling approximately 830,000 hectares. Furthermore, Russian wheat export values have risen to $242 per mt FOB, which is a $44 increase from the low but still remains approximately $20 below French offers.

  • Ukraine’s wheat exports since July of last year have reached 16.6 mmt, representing a 10% increase year over year. The USDA estimates Ukraine’s wheat exports for the marketing year at 17.5 mmt. Their total grain exports have reached 44.2 mmt, up 0.5% year on year. In May alone, their grain shipments reached 2.86 mmt, marking a 38% increase year on year.

  • According to their national statistics office, Germany’s 2024 winter wheat planted area fell 8.3% year over year, due to heavy rains and flooding that impacted arable land during the fall and winter. Total winter wheat plantings are estimated at 2.6 million hectares.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bearish key reversal on May 15 puts July ’24 Chicago at risk of a slide lower toward nearby support around 628. Should that area fail, further support could be found near 593. If a bullish impetus enters the scene to turn prices back higher, heavy resistance remains overhead around 700.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. We are now targeting the 710 – 730 range in July ’24 KC for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month-long 552–605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short-lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and crop concerns have developed worldwide, if July ’24 KC closes above the recent 710 high, we would recommend buying upside calls in anticipation of a potential extended rally to help protect previous sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. That said, we also revised our target range to 820 – 840 to make additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found near 646 and again near 623.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Following the recent breakout to the upside and the subsequent rally off the April lows, we recommended making two separate sales to take advantage of the elevated prices. Considering the increased volatility in the market we are now targeting the 760 – 790 range in July ‘24 for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRS crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After reaching a peak of 748 on May 15 and posting a bearish reversal, the July ’24 contract has been moving steadily towards the support area of 697 – 690 ½. If this support holds and prices bounce back upward, they may encounter heavy resistance around the recent high of 748. However, if prices close below 690 ½, they may find additional support in the range between 677 and 660.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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5-16 End of Day: Follow Through Selling Presses Corn and Wheat Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Weak export sales and follow through selling from yesterday’s poor close pushed the corn market lower on the 8:30 CDT open from overnight gains, with the July contract maintaining support just above its 100-day moving average.

  • Lower than expected export sales weighed on the soybean market that was caught in a very choppy two sided trade. Sharply higher soybean oil provided underlying support, while lower meal added resistance as July soybeans consolidated around its 100-day ma for the fifth consecutive day.

  • Traders may be profit-taking on short oil/long meal positions as soybean oil settled nearly 100 points higher on the day after maintaining support around 43.40 in the July contract, while July meal dropped $4.00 following yesterday’s weakness. Soybean oil’s share of Board crush value has recovered over 1.5% in the last 9 sessions from its 6.5% drop since April’s high.

  • For the third consecutive day, all three wheat classes closed lower after giving up earlier gains. Sellers were encouraged by lower Matif wheat prices, positive findings from the Kansas wheat tour, and forecasts suggesting improved rain opportunities in Russia.

  • To see the updated US 5 and 7-day precipitation forecasts, and the current US Drought Monitor and class change from last month, courtesy of NWS, CPC, NOAA, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in July ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that July ’24 posted a bearish double top and bearish reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2023 old crop.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in both July ’24 and Dec ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that Dec ’24 posted a bearish key reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2024 new crop.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure continued in the corn market after yesterday’s difficult close. Weakness across the grain market in general pressured corn futures, which slipped off early session highs. July corn is testing the 100-day moving average at 457, which could be a swing point in prices.

  • Weekly export sales were within expectations but have been trending softer than a few weeks ago. USDA export sales report as new sales of corn over the last week at 29.2 mb (742,000 mt) of old crop and 5 mb (128,000 mt) of new crop. Old crop sales were down 17% from last week and 14% from the prior 4-week average. Export sales are still up 27% over last year’s totals.

  • Near-term weather forecasts reflect a possible window for producers to push the planting pace. The next 5-6 days overall is looking for dryer conditions and could provide that opportunity. Longer-range forecasts are still looking at above average precipitation into the end of the month. A focus will be the planting pace in Iowa and Illinois, which were 13% and 14% respectively behind the 5-year average on the last crop progress report.

  • Wheat market price action has been a limiting force on corn prices this week. For the third consecutive day, wheat futures have given up double digit price strength to close the day in the red, possibly signaling a near-term peak in that wheat market.

  • Corn price rallies have been limited by selling pressure from producers in the US as well as Argentina and Brazil. New crop hedging pressure likely limited this most recent rally as Dec corn challenged the 500 price level.

Above: A close above the May 7 high of 472 suggests the market could run toward the 495 – 510 resistance area from last fall. However, a reversal lower and a close below 454 initial support, could lead the market to test heavier support in the 445 – 440 range.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity, while also targeting the 1280 – 1320 range. This is a modest retracement back to the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day mixed with the July and August contracts higher but deferred contracts lower. Prices did rebound from earlier in the day, but a poor export sales report today along with disappointing NOPA crush numbers yesterday pressured futures today. Soybean meal was lower while soybean oil was higher for the day.

  • Today’s export sales report for soybeans were poor at 9.8 mb in sales for 23/24 and 0.9 mb for 24/25. This was down 38% from last week and down 31% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments for soybeans of 16.3 mb were above the 12.6 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 1.700 billion bushels. Although, total sales commitments are down 16% from a year ago. Primary destinations were to Egypt, China, and Indonesia.

  • Yesterday, the USDA reported a private exporter sale totaling 180,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. While not guaranteed, “unknown destinations” is often China, and this would be encouraging given the fear of retaliation for the new tariffs.

  • On Tuesday, CONAB increased its estimate for Brazil’s soybean production by 1 mmt to 147.5 mmt. This is still well below the USDA’s estimate of 154 mmt. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange also has its estimates for soybean production below that of the USDA.

Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted small losses in Chicago and Kansas City futures, with more modest declines in Minneapolis futures. Lower corn and soybean prices failed to support to wheat, whose losses were compounded by a stronger US Dollar and a decline in Paris milling wheat futures. Additionally, the American weather model today hinted at better opportunities for rain in southern Russia that may alleviate some drought concerns.

  • The USDA reported an increase of only 2.9 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 11.2 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week, however, at 16.5 mb, just exceeded the 16.3 mb needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 720 mb.

  • Day two of the Kansas wheat crop tour confirmed what many thought – the crop is in much better shape compared to last year, but there are still trouble spots. Average yield for the second day came in at 42.4 bpa, which is above the USDA’s forecast for the state of 38 bpa. That is also above 35 bpa last year but below the 10 year average of 42.9 bpa.

  • According to the USDA, as of May 14, about 25% of the US winter wheat crop is experiencing drought, a 3% improvement versus last week. Additionally, 14% of US spring wheat acres are said to be in drought, compared with 15% last week.

  • GrainCorp Ltd suggests that persistent dryness in western Australia could significantly reduce Australian wheat exports. Although conditions on the east coast appear more favorable, if this trend persists, it could raise concerns about global supply.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina has said “There are factors favoring a successful wheat season.” Currently, soil conditions surpass those of the 21/22 season, which saw record production. Anticipated rains in the October/November timeframe, potentially driven by La Nina, could further benefit their crop. The exchange reports a 70% chance of La Nina affecting Argentina by October.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bearish key reversal on May 15 puts July ’24 Chicago at risk of a slide lower toward nearby support around 628. Should that area fail, further support could be found near 593. If a bullish impetus enters the scene to turn prices back higher, heavy resistance remains overhead around 700.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid 590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, and while Managed funds covered a significant portion of their net short positions, they remain short the market, which could still push prices higher if production concerns persist.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. We are now targeting the 710 – 730 range in July ’24 KC for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month-long 552–605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short-lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and crop concerns have developed worldwide, if July ’24 KC closes above the recent 710 high, we would recommend buying upside calls in anticipation of a potential extended rally to help protect previous sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. That said, we also revised our target range to 820 – 840 to make additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found near 646 and again near 623.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market and indications of overbought conditions, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer. Moreover, the fact that Managed funds still maintain a net short position suggests the potential for an extended rally if further production concerns emerge.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 Spring wheat crop. Since mid-April July ’24 Minneapolis wheat has rallied more than 110 cents from the springtime low and is now near the resistance area from last fall’s highs.  Given that this rally is likely driven by world supply concerns and weather, we recommend capitalizing on these elevated prices by selling another portion of your 2023 spring wheat production.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The close above 731 could put the July ’24 contract on track to test the November high of 752, and then the 767 – 791 congestion area from last September. Below the market, nearby support remains around 697 – 690 ½, a close below which could signal a further decline toward support levels at 675 and 660.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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5-15 End of Day: Technical Selling Presses Grains Lower Following Reversals from the Day’s Highs

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Early support from sharply higher wheat and the damp extended forecast faded as sellers took control as they leaned on the fading wheat market and yesterday’s bearish double top formation on the July daily chart. December corn also felt the sting as it posted a bearish key reversal on the daily chart.  

  • A bearish NOPA crush report that showed the lowest April crush in three years, took the wind out of the sails in the soybean complex as all three commodities well off their respective daily highs.

  • Soybean meal and oil both saw minor net changes from today’s volatile trade after their initial rallies were sold. July meal showed a net loss of $1.60 while soybean oil gained 0.15 cents. Anticipation of SA meal supplies likely added overhead resistance to meal, just as higher palm oil and lower than expected bean oil stocks in today’s NOPA crush report may have kept some underlying support in oil.

  • The wheat complex had a rough day showing daily bearish reversals in all three classes, with July Chicago posting a key bearish reversal, settling lower after printing a fresh daily high. Three-year high yields on the Kansas wheat tour, and the failure of July Chicago to breach 700 added to the negativity.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 1-week precipitation forecast versus normal for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2023 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in July ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that July ’24 posted a bearish double top and bearish reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2023 old crop.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in both July ’24 and Dec ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that Dec ’24 posted a bearish key reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2024 new crop.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • It was a disappointing day in the corn market and across the entire grain complex as sellers were active. After early morning strength, sellers drove prices lower, posting reversal action and in December corn, a bearish key reversal on the charts. A strong reversal lower in the wheat market impacted prices, and a less threatening near-term forecast relieved some concerns about planting pace.

  • The weak price action helped confirm the potential double-top in the July corn futures. A close under the 10-day moving average may bring additional momentum selling on Thursday. Key support will be the 100-day moving average near 457 on the July chart.

  • Today’s weekly ethanol production report saw some rebound in production week over week. Last week, production averaged 1000 bpd, up from 965 bpd the previous week. Total corn used last week for ethanol production totaled 100 mb of corn, which was below the amount needed to reach the USDA target. Last Friday, the USDA raised expected corn usage for ethanol by 50 mb to 5.450 for the marketing year.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales tomorrow morning. Expectations are for new sales to range from 700,000-1.05 mmt for the 23/24 marketing year. Last week, export sales totaled 889,150 mt of new sales.

  • Near-term weather forecasts reflect a possible window for producers to push the planting pace. The next 5-6 days overall is looking for dryer conditions and could provide that opportunity. Longer-range forecasts are still looking at above average precipitation into the end of the month.

Above: A close above the May 7 high of 472 suggests the market could run toward the 495 – 510 resistance area from last fall. However, a reversal lower and a close below 454 initial support, could lead the market to test heavier support in the 445 – 440 range.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower, significantly off their earlier morning highs which saw futures up as much as 18 cents in the July contract. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher. Pressure came from a disappointing NOPA crush report, but the wet forecast could provide longer term support.

  • Today, the NOPA crush report was released and showed that 166.034 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in April. This was well below the average trade guess of 183.072 mb and was a 3-year low for the month of April. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.755 billion bushels which was down 5.2% from March, and well below expectations.

  • This morning, the USDA reported large private exporter sales totaling 180,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 120,000 mt is for delivery during the 23/24 marketing year and 60,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.

  • Yesterday, news of new tariffs on Chinese goods such as computer chips, minerals, and EV’s was released. This caused concerns over retaliation from China in the way of fewer imports of US soybeans, and there was disappointment that used cooking oil was not included in the tariffs.

Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower in all three US futures classes after suffering major reversals off the daily highs. July Chicago wheat nearly breached 700 again (topping out at 697), but this resistance area may have generated some technical selling that triggered stop loss orders on the way down. Today’s negative close also comes despite a sharply lower US Dollar Index and a higher close for Matif wheat.  

  • The first day of the Kansas crop tour found a yield of 49.9 bpa, which is the highest in three years. This is also well above 29.8 bpa last year and the average of 42.7 bpa. With that said, some of the areas that experienced worse drought conditions will be looked at today and tomorrow and may have poorer yields.

  • SovEcon has reportedly decreased their estimate of Russian wheat production by roughly 4 mmt to 85.7 mmt. This is in line with the recent drop by IKAR to 86 mmt. The reductions are said to be the result of crop loss due to frost damage. In addition, an estimated 1 mmt of all Russian crops may need to be replanted.

  • Bioceres, an Argentina based biotech ag company, is awaiting authorization to breed their HB4 wheat in the US, since they are only currently permitted to export this strain to the US for food and feed.  This GMO wheat is said to have been developed to be more drought tolerant, and their aim is to bring it to the global market.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bearish key reversal on May 15 puts July ’24 Chicago at risk of a slide lower toward nearby support around 628. Should that area fail, further support could be found near 593. If a bullish impetus enters the scene to turn prices back higher, heavy resistance remains overhead around 700.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid 590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, and while Managed funds covered a significant portion of their net short positions, they remain short the market, which could still push prices higher if production concerns persist.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. With that said, we are currently evaluating the market situation before setting a target for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month long 552 – 605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and weather has become a larger factor, we are currently targeting the 760 – 780 range versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found near 646 and again near 623.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market and indications of overbought conditions, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer. Moreover, the fact that Managed funds still maintain a net short position suggests the potential for an extended rally if further production concerns emerge.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 Spring wheat crop. Since mid-April July ’24 Minneapolis wheat has rallied more than 110 cents from the springtime low and is now near the resistance area from last fall’s highs.  Given that this rally is likely driven by world supply concerns and weather, we recommend capitalizing on these elevated prices by selling another portion of your 2023 spring wheat production.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The close above 731 could put the July ’24 contract on track to test the November high of 752, and then the 767 – 791 congestion area from last September. Below the market, nearby support remains around 697 – 690 ½, a close below which could signal a further decline toward support levels at 675 and 660.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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5-14 End of Day: Turnaround Tuesday Strikes with Lower Markets Across the Board

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover pressure from the wheat complex and neighboring soybeans contributed to the negativity in the corn market, which traded lower in the day session following the print of a new high for the move in the overnight session from the slower than expected planting pace.

  • Although the soybean market settled lower on the day, the market recovered most of its overnight losses after the July contract found support near its 20-day moving average along with help from the rally in soybean meal, which posted a bullish key reversal for the move.

  • Soybean oil broke hard in today’s session, giving up much of the gains from the prior two days, as the rumored and much hoped for tariff increases on imported used cooking oil did not materialize. Soybean meal on the other hand, found potential support from long meal/short oil spread action as traders likely jumped back into the market from meal’s recent decline.

  • Profit taking and sharply lower Matif wheat added to the negative tone in the wheat complex despite another crop analyst reduction to the Russian wheat crop. KC wheat led the declines, while Chicago posted a fresh high for the move before reversing lower.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus July ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures failed to follow through on Monday’s gains as selling pressure in the wheat market and soybean market spilled over into the corn futures. July corn double-topped Mondays highs and posted a reversal on the daily charts. The negative price action could lead to additional selling pressure into Wednesday. May corn futures finished its trading life on Tuesday.  May futures closed trade at 453 ¾.

  • The USDA crop progress report showed corn planting at 49% complete, in line with analyst expectations.  This was up 13% over last week, but 5% below the 5-year average. Key states of Iowa (-13%) and Illinois (-14%) are behind the 5-year pace and additional slow planting could support the market. Weather models overall are staying on the wetter side but may have holes to provide opportunities to complete planting in some areas.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn to Mexico. Mexico purchased 15.9 mb (405,000 mt) of corn split between old and new crop. A total of 135,000 mt for the 23/24 marketing year and 270,000 mt for the 24/25 marketing year. These are routine sales of corn to Mexico and failed to move the market.

  • The Brazil Ag agency, CONAB, released their May production expectations this morning. CONAB raised their Brazil corn production estimate to 111.6 mmt, up 672,000 mt from their April estimate. This is still down sharply from last year’s production of 131 mmt as producers have reduced corn acreage overall.

  • The Corn market could be a crossroads point as weak price action in the grain market could be signaling a near-term top. The market will be looking for additional news to push prices higher, as the planting pace, at this time, is acceptable.

Above: A close above the May 7 high of 472 suggests the market could run toward the 495 – 510 resistance area from last fall. However, a reversal lower and a close below 454 initial support, could lead the market to test heavier support in the 445 – 440 range.

Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower and were under pressure from sharply lower soybean oil, but soybean meal was higher which helped offset the losses in oil. July soybeans finished the day just above its 100-day moving average while the November contract remains well above.

  • Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that 35% of the soybean crop has been planted which was lower than the average trade guess of 39%. This compares to 25% last week, 45% a year ago, and the 5-year average of 34%. 16% of the crop has reportedly emerged, which compares to 9% last week and 17% a year ago at this time.

  • This morning, CONAB released its estimates for the Brazilian soybean crop and revised its number higher to 147.7 mmt. There is now a 6.3 mmt discrepancy between CONAB and the USDA with the USDA’s estimate last week at 154 mmt. With the flooding in Rio Grande do Sul, the USDA’s estimate is likely too high.

  • Soybean oil tumbled this morning after the Biden administration announced tariffs on several Chinese products, but used cooking oil was not on the list as was previously rumored. Over the past week, soybean oil had been rallying based on that rumor as the decline in used cooking oil imports would create greater demand for soybean oil.

Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • US wheat futures closed lower across the board, with Paris milling wheat futures also experiencing sharp declines. This downward trend is likely due to profit-taking following a recent strong rally, exacerbated by lower corn and soybean futures.

  • Yesterday’s crop progress report indicated that winter wheat conditions remained unchanged at 50% rated good to excellent. However, there was a 2% shift from fair to the poor to very poor category. This discrepancy may be attributed to the difference between HRW and SRW wheat, with the former being rated much lower than the latter. Additionally, 57% of the winter wheat crop is headed, compared to 46% last year and 44% on average. Moreover, spring wheat planting is reported at 61%, well ahead of last year’s 35% and the 48% average.

  • Freezing conditions in Russia continue to pose a threat to their wheat crop, with several private estimates now forecasting production below 90 mmt. IKAR has reportedly lowered their projection by 5 mmt to 86 mmt. Dryness in the Black Sea area may also impact both the Russian and Ukrainian crops. Furthermore, excessive wet weather in parts of Europe, particularly France, adds to the bullish outlook on a global scale.

  • CONAB has lowered their production estimate of Brazil’s wheat crop by 7% to 9.03 mmt. Lower acreage is cited as the reason for the decline, which itself is likely due to the recent torrential rains and flooding problems in Southern Brazil. For reference, the USDA estimated a 9.5 mmt crop on last Friday’s report.

  • According to the Australian weather bureau, there is a 50% chance of a La Nina weather pattern developing later this year. This is a bit lower than some other estimates from around the world, including the Japanese weather bureau giving it a 60% chance. Regardless, the formation of this pattern should bring more moisture to eastern Australia, but drier conditions to North America.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

After closing above 684 on May 13, July ’24 Chicago remains on track to move toward the July high of 777 ¼, though psychological resistance also remains near 700. Should the market slide lower and close below nearby support near 628, it would then be at risk of testing the 593 area from late April.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid 590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, and while Managed funds covered a significant portion of their net short positions, they remain short the market, which could still push prices higher if production concerns persist.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. With that said, we are currently evaluating the market situation before setting a target for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month long 552 – 605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and weather has become a larger factor, we are currently targeting the 760 – 780 range versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found near 646 and again near 623.

On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found near 646 and again near 623.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market and indications of overbought conditions, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer. Moreover, the fact that Managed funds still maintain a net short position suggests the potential for an extended rally if further production concerns emerge.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 Spring wheat crop. Since mid-April July ’24 Minneapolis wheat has rallied more than 110 cents from the springtime low and is now near the resistance area from last fall’s highs.  Given that this rally is likely driven by world supply concerns and weather, we recommend capitalizing on these elevated prices by selling another portion of your 2023 spring wheat production.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The close above 731 could put the July ’24 contract on track to test the November high of 752, and then the 767 – 791 congestion area from last September. Below the market, nearby support remains around 697 – 690 ½, a close below which could signal a further decline toward support levels at 675 and 660.

Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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5-13 End of Day: Sharply Higher Wheat Lends Support to Corn and Beans

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After an initial surge higher on the 8:30 cdt open of the day session, July corn chopped mostly sideways in a tight three-cent range, caught between a strong wheat market, a potentially concerning planting pace, and heavy supply picture.

  • Despite lower soybean meal, higher soybean oil, sharply higher wheat, and solid weekly soybean export inspections, helped July soybeans to close in the green, after a day of choppy two-sided trade.

  • Soybean meal closed lower for the fourth consecutive day and just off the day’s low as it followed through on technical weakness from last week. Soybean oil on the other hand likely saw support from higher palm oil and continued support from higher potential import duties on used cooking oil (ucd) for biofuel use.

  • Higher Matif wheat and lower wheat production and export projections for Russia fed the bull in the wheat complex today, potentially leading to more short covering across all three classes. July Chicago posted its highest close since early August, while July KC had its highest close since early October.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting progresses into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus July ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Despite strong wheat and soybean markets to start the week, corn futures only posted slight gains as the market is trying to balance out the forecasted heavy supply picture, planting progress, and the overall demand for corn.

  • Managed funds drastically reduced their net short position in the corn market last week.  On last week’s Commitment of Traders report, funds reduced their total net short positions by 115,527 contracts to 102,513 contracts.  In total, managed money has removed nearly 240,000 contracts since the February price low.

  • USDA will release weekly planting progress this afternoon.  Expectations are for corn planting to reach 49% complete, up 13% from last week.  The planting pace could be limited toward that target with wet weather over the corn belt in the past week, but the pace likely improved going into the weekend in some areas. 

  • Weekly Export inspections for corn were within market expectations.  Last week, US exporters shipped 36.9 mb (938,000 mt) of corn. Total exports have reached 1.336 billion bushels, up 30% from last year.  The USDA has forecasted a 29% increase year over year.

  • The grain markets will be focused on weather for the next couple of weeks.  Forecasts look mixed across the corn belt as some producers have struggled to stay on pace with planting this spring’s crop.

Above: A close above the May 7 high of 472 suggests the market could run toward the 495 – 510 resistance area from last fall. However, a reversal lower and a close below 454 initial support, could lead the market to test heavier support in the 445 – 440 range.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 7. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 115,527 contracts between May 1 – 7, bringing their total position to a net short 102,513 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher for the day despite initially trading lower overnight. However, they also settled 9 cents below their midday highs. Soybean meal closed significantly lower while soybean oil ended higher by 1.60%. Both July and November soybeans closed above the 100-day moving average.

  • Friday’s WASDE report was relatively neutral for soybeans, but they got a boost from sharply higher soybean oil and friendly numbers for corn and wheat. Once again, the USDA was very conservative with adjusting Brazilian production and only lowered it by 1 mmt. CONAB maintains a much lower estimate that will be updated tomorrow.

  • Planting faced challenges again last week with rain across most of the Midwest, but some work was able to get done over the weekend. The USDA will release its crop progress report later today, and analysts expect that 38% will have been planted as of Sunday which compares to 25% last week and 49% last year.

  • Today’s export inspections report showed an increase of 14.9 mb of soybeans which puts total inspections at 1.453 billion bushels which is down 18% from the previous year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds covering a huge portion of their short position buying back 107,783 contracts, leaving them net short just 41,453 contracts. That short covering resulted in a rally of about a dollar.

Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 7. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 107,783 contracts between May 1 – 7, bringing their total position to a net short 41,453 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed sharply higher today in all three categories. With the US Dollar Index down and front month September Matif wheat futures reaching the highest level since late July of last year, funds are believed to be continuing to buy back their short positions in the wheat complex.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections at 13.5 mb bring the total 23/24 inspections to 649 mb, which is down 6% from a year ago.  The USDA is now estimating 23/24 exports at 720 mb, up 10 mb from the previous estimate, but still down 5% compared to last year.

  • New threats of freeze damage in Russia over the weekend may have caused some additional fund short covering today, with SovEcon reducing their estimate of Russian wheat production by 3.5 mmt to 89.6 mmt. Dryness in the Black Sea area remains a concern as well.

  • India’s wheat stocks are said to have hit a 16-year low; their government has made record sales from its reserves in an effort to lower food prices and inflation. This could mean that India will be a net importer of wheat, which would add bullishness to the market.

  • In the southern hemisphere, weather concerns are arising that could impact wheat. Cold conditions in Argentina have led to frost, potentially affecting recently planted winter wheat. Meanwhile, in Australia, most areas remain too dry. Although New South Wales received some rainfall over the weekend, conditions outside of this region haven’t been favorable for winter wheat. Farmers in these areas are anticipating improved soil moisture as the transition to La Niña unfolds in the coming months.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Support near the 200-day moving average has held, and the close above 633 ¼ opens the door for the market to test the area of 664 and then 684 as it moves toward the July high of 777 ¼. A slide lower and a close below 593 ½ may encounter support around the 50-day moving average with 548 support below that.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your estimated 2025 SRW wheat production. Since our last sales recommendation for next year’s SRW wheat crop, July ’25 Chicago has rallied over 70 cents and is approaching the 62% retracement level from the March low back to contract highs, as Managed funds cover their extensive net short positions on world production concerns for this year’s crop. While plenty of time remains for other bullish factors to enter the scene that could push prices further, this rally may primarily be weather driven and short-lived, and we advise you to take advantage of these elevated prices to sell another portion of your estimated 2025 SRW production.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: With the market close above 684, it remains on track to move toward the July high of 777 ¼, though it may encounter psychological resistance around 700. A slide lower and a close below 628 nearby support puts the market at risk of testing the 593 area from late April.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 7. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,506 contracts between May 1 – 7, bringing their total position to a net short 42,360 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid 590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen since last December. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, and while Managed funds covered a significant portion of their net short positions, they remain short the market, which could still push prices higher if production concerns persist.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. With that said, we are currently evaluating the market situation before setting a target for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month long 552 – 605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and weather has become a larger factor, we are currently targeting the 760 – 780 range versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market close above 679 led it to test the 700 psychological resistance area, a solid close above which could open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found near 646 and again near 623.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 7. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,597 contracts between May 1 – 7, bringing their total position to a net short 24,013 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market and indications of overbought conditions, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer. Moreover, the fact that Managed funds still maintain a net short position suggests the potential for an extended rally if further production concerns emerge.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2023 Spring wheat crop. Since mid-April July ’24 Minneapolis wheat has rallied more than 110 cents from the springtime low and is now near last fall’s highs.  Given that this rally is likely driven by world supply side concerns and weather, we recommend capitalizing on these elevated prices by selling another portion of your 2023 spring wheat production.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The close above 731 could put the July ’24 contract on track to test the November high of 752, and then the 767 – 791 congestion area from last September. Below the market, nearby support remains around 697 – 690 ½, a close below which could signal a further decline toward support levels at 675 and 660.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 7. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 6,284 contracts between May 1 – 7, bringing their total position to a net short 3,010 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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5-10 End of Day: Sharply Higher Wheat and Bean Oil Support Corn and Beans into the Close

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Strong buying in the wheat complex and a neutral to friendly WASDE report helped July corn futures rally to their highest weekly close since early January

  • The soybean market closed in the green with help from sharply higher soybean oil, following the release of the mostly neutral WASDE report.

  • While July meal settled just $1.0 lower after trading a broad $12.0 range, July bean oil gained 4.2% and 1.80 cents on the day on rumors that the US may raise import duties on used cooking oil that is being used to make biofuel.

  • All three wheat classes rallied into the close with significant gains across the board. Continued concerns regarding Russia’s wheat production kept the markets firm in the overnight session, while a somewhat friendly WASDE report added support.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the current and last year’s US Drought Monitors, courtesy of NWS, NOAA, and the NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Despite July ’24 corn rallying beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, the market exhibits signs of being overbought, potentially adding resistance to higher prices. However, managed funds have retained a significant net short position, likely sparking the recent rally which could fuel a more substantial upside move as we progress through planting and into the growing season. Despite potential obstacles, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus July ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished near the highs for the week supported by a neutral to friendly WASDE report, and strong buying in the wheat markets. For the week, July corn gained 9 ½ cents and posted its highest weekly close since the second week in January.

  • Friday’s USDA Supply/Demand report posted friendly numbers for old crop corn according to expectations. The USDA added 50 mb of demand to both ethanol production and exports to lower carryout to 2.022 billion bushels. This was 100 mb below expectations, supporting old crop prices.

  • The USDA released initial projections for the 24/25 marketing year. As expected, planted acres for the next crop year was 90 million acres with trend line yield of 181 bushels/acre. After minor demand adjustments, year over year new crop carryout is projected at 2.102 billion bushels. This was below market expectations, but still reflects a relatively heavy corn supply for the next marketing year.

  • The USDA projections for South American corn production saw mild reductions from the April report. The USDA lowered Argentine corn production to 53 mmt and Brazil production to 124 mmt, each down 2 mmt from the April report, but still ahead of analyst estimates from those regions. 

  • The market will shift its focus back to planting weather. Recent rainfalls have limited planting progress, but longer-range forecasts are turning drier overall. Crop progress numbers on Monday afternoon may be key for near-term market moves. Last week, corn planting was 36% complete nationally.

Above: The recent move up took July corn into overbought status and to a high of 472, just above the 200-day moving average. Being overbought makes the market more vulnerable to a downturn. Should that occur, support may be found down near 445 to 440. If prices turn back higher, initial resistance remains near the 472 high, and then again around 495 – 510.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher following the USDA’s WASDE report which was relatively neutral for soybeans. The support today came from soybean oil which rallied sharply over 4% as a result of import duties on cooking oils potentially being raised significantly. Soybean meal ended the day lower, and July soybeans are trading back above the 100-day moving average.

  • Today’s WASDE report said that old crop ending stock estimates for soybeans were unchanged at 340 mb and the first projection for 24/25 production was posted at 4,450 million bushels which was slightly higher than the average trade guess. New crop ending stocks were pegged at 445 mb which was above the average trade guess. Brazilian soybean production was revised lower by 1 mmt to 154 mmt and Argentinian production was surprisingly unchanged at 50 mmt.

  • For the week, July soybeans gained 4 cents but are down 37 cents from the Tuesday highs. November soybeans ended the week up 4 ¾ at 1205 ¾, July soybean meal lost just $0.30 at $371.90, and July soybean oil gained 1.36 cents to 44.44 cents. Funds were likely net buyers of soybeans this week after being spurred by planting delays and South American weather issues.

  • The extreme flooding in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil is causing the soybeans left in the field to deteriorate, and StoneX has cut their estimates for Brazilian production by 3 mmt as a result. This reduction brings their estimate for the bean crop to 147.8 mmt compared to 150.8 mmt in their last estimate.

Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex was strong overnight and into the 11 am CDT USDA WASDE report, as it continued to grapple with concerns regarding the Russian wheat crop with dry weather and the recent cold snap. Somewhat friendly supply and demand numbers helped press all three wheat classes higher into the close, with July Chicago setting a new high for the move and the highest close since last August.

  • The USDA released its monthly WASD report today, pegging 23/24 wheat carryout at 688 million bushels versus the average trade guess of 696 mb. They estimated 24/25 total wheat production at 1.858 bb, with carryout at 766 versus 786 mb expected. As for world ending stocks, 23/24 came in at 257.8 mmt with 24/25 at 253.61 mmt versus expectations of 256.9 and 257.37 mmt respectively.

  • The USDA made no changes to the Russian wheat crop and left its estimate at 91.5 mmt. SovEcon on the other hand lowered its estimate of Russian wheat production by 3.4 mmt to 89.6. The USDA did lower its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat crop 0.4 mmt to 23 mmt.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina is projecting the country’s 24/25 wheat production to increase 20% to 18.1 mmt due to the recent rains that have set the stage for a good growing season. The exchange also sees wheat 24/25 wheat exports rising 24% from last year to 11.5 mmt.

  • A western Australian industry group raised concerns about Australia’s wheat crop due to the persistent dry weather and lowered its planted area estimate to 4.7 million hectares from its April forecast of 4.96 million.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Support near the 200-day moving average has held, and the close above 633 ¼ opens the door for the market to test the area of 664 and then 684 as it moves toward the July high of 777 ¼. A slide lower and a close below 593 ½ may encounter support around the 50-day moving average with 548 support below that.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your estimated 2025 SRW wheat production. Since our last sales recommendation for next year’s SRW wheat crop, July ’25 Chicago has rallied over 70 cents and is approaching the 62% retracement level from the March low back to contract highs, as Managed funds cover their extensive net short positions on world production concerns for this year’s crop. While plenty of time remains for other bullish factors to enter the scene that could push prices further, this rally may primarily be weather driven and short-lived, and we advise you to take advantage of these elevated prices to sell another portion of your estimated 2025 SRW production.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Support near the 200-day moving average has held, and the close above 633 ¼ opens the door for the market to test the area of 664 and then 684 as it moves toward the July high of 777 ¼. A slide lower and a close below 593 ½ may encounter support around the 50-day moving average with 548 support below that.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid 590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen since last December. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, and while Managed funds covered a significant portion of their net short positions, they remain short the market, which could still push prices higher if production concerns persist.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. With that said, we are currently evaluating the market situation before setting a target for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month long 552 – 605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and weather has become a larger factor, we are currently targeting the 760 – 780 range versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front-month KC wheat appears to be consolidating following the recent rally. Nearby support below the market sits near 623, with nearby resistance just overhead near the recent 679 high. A close above 679 should be supportive for a run towards 700 psychological resistance, while a close below 623 could open the door for a slide toward 600 support.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market and indications of overbought conditions, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer. Moreover, the fact that Managed funds still maintain a net short position suggests the potential for an extended rally if further production concerns emerge.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Following the recent breakout to the upside and the subsequent rally off the April lows, we recommended making a sale to take advantage of the elevated prices. The current strategy is to look for an extension of the rally toward last December’s highs and target 725 – 750 to recommend additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After reaching a high of 731 in July Minneapolis wheat, the market seems to be consolidating after becoming overbought. Nearby support is around 697 – 690 ½, and a close below this range could signal a further decline toward support levels at 675 and 660. Conversely, a close above 731 could pave the way for prices to advance toward the November high of 752, although resistance may be encountered in the 725 – 735 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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5-9 End of Day: Wheat Higher, Corn Quiet, and Soybeans Lower Again Ahead of USDA Report Friday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market traded quietly sideways today ahead of tomorrow’s USDA May WASDE report. Strong, as expected, export sales and higher closes in wheat helped add underlying support.

  • A second consecutive day of sharply lower trade across the soybean complex pulled front month soybean futures back near the $12 futures level. Cuts are expected to both Argentina and Brazil’s soybean crop sizes by the USDA in tomorrows WASDE.

  • Wheat futures closed higher across the board on Thursday as thoughts that recent freeze damage in Russia may be more widespread than originally thought, frost potential returns for Russian wheat areas this weekend.  Higher Paris wheat futures and a lower US dollar index also helped to add support.

  • To see the updated US last 72-hour precipitation map, and the US 4-inch soil moisture percentile map courtesy of NASA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Despite July ’24 corn rallying beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, the market exhibits signs of being overbought, potentially adding resistance to higher prices. However, managed funds have retained a significant net short position, likely sparking the recent rally which could fuel a more substantial upside move as we progress through planting and into the growing season. Despite potential obstacles, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus July ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market traded in a tight 3 ¼ cent range for most of the day after giving up overnight gains as it consolidated ahead of tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report. Although July corn closed towards the lower end of its range, it held Monday’s low and the 20-day moving average.

  • The USDA released its export sales report for the week ending May 2. Corn export sales came in as expected at 35 million bushels for the 23/24 marketing year, and 1.93 mb for the 24/25 new crop. There was also a flash sale reported, totaling 5.2 million bushels (132,080 mt) of corn to Mexico, 2.4 mb (60,960 mt) for the 23/24 marketing year and 2.8 mb (71,120 mt) for 24/25.

  • Tomorrow, the USDA will release its May WASDE report, which will also be the first look at this year’s 24/25 production. The average trade guess for 23/24 US old crop corn ending stocks is 2.094 billion bushels, 28 mb less than April’s estimate. Whereas US 24/25 new crop corn ending stocks are estimated to come in at 2.282 bb, using a 180.7 bpa yield. The trade will also be watching to see how much of a reduction the USDA makes to its South American estimates, which currently stand at 124 mmt and 55 mmt respectively for Brazil and Argentina.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange, in its April report released on Wednesday, adjusted the estimated Argentine corn crop downward to 47.5 mmt from March’s estimate of 50.5 mmt. This adjustment suggests a significant shift due to the leaf hopper infestation.

  • Following Friday’s USDA report, the planting pace will return to the forefront of the market’s focus. Planting may continue to face challenges as another weather system moves across the Corn Belt. While the forecast indicates a break in the weather in the middle of the month, expectations point to a warm and wetter pattern persisting into the end of May.

Above: The recent move up took July corn into overbought status and to a high of 472, just above the 200-day moving average. Being overbought makes the market more vulnerable to a downturn. Should that occur, support may be found down near 445 to 440. If prices turn back higher, initial resistance remains near the 472 high, and then again around 495 – 510.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed sharply lower for the second consecutive day with pressure from lower soybean meal and oil, with bean oil posting more significant losses. July soybeans closed below the 100-day moving average while the November contract closed above it. There has likely been farmer selling following the recent rally along with funds squaring positions ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report.

  • Early trade estimates for Friday’s USDA report have the 23/24 soybean ending stocks relatively unchanged, and the ending stocks for 24/25 are estimated at 439 mb, using a soybean yield of 52.0 bpa. The Argentinian bean crop is expected to be revised lower to 49.7 mmt from 50 mmt, and Brazil’s production is expected to be lowered to 152.5 mmt from 155 mmt last month.

  • In Brazil, there remain large issues regarding the soybeans which have not been harvested and remain in the fields due to severe flooding in Rio Grande do Sul. The extent of the damage is yet unknown, but that state is a key exporter of soybeans and could impact exports to Argentina and therefore Argentinian meal exports.

  • Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 15.8 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and 0.2 mb for 24/25. This was within the average range of trade estimates and puts total sales down 17% from a year ago. Last week’s export shipments of 11.2 mb were below the 12.5 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and Mexico.

Above: While the close above the 1248 January high on May 6 set the market up to target the 1290 ¾  – 1296 ¾ gap and the subsequent 1328 – 1352 resistance area, it also left the market overbought and vulnerable to a decline. Initial support could be found between 1227 and 1207, with further support between 1192 and 1146 if the market slides further.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed modestly higher in all three categories, stopping the bleeding of the last couple days. Support came from the US Dollar Index turning negative, as well as a higher close for Paris milling wheat futures. Both the Matif and US futures were likely responding to talk that the freeze damage in Russia may have caused more harm to their wheat than originally thought. Some estimates of the Russian crop have now fallen below 90 mmt, compared to 93 mmt recently.  

  • The USDA reported an increase of only 1.5 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 14.9 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 12.4 mb fell below the 13.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 710 mb. Export shipments now total 627 mb, which is up 2% from last year.

  • The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 wheat carryout is pegged at 689 mb, compared to 698 in April. World ending stocks for 23/24 wheat are expected to come in at 258.1 mmt, down from 258.3 in April. The average guess for US 24/25 carryout is 786 mb, with the world 24/25 ending stocks estimate at 256.9 mmt.

  • US 24/25 all wheat production is anticipated on tomorrow’s report at 1.889 bb vs 1.812 in 22/23. Of that total, winter wheat in particular is expected at 1.305 bb vs 1.248.

  • According to the USDA, about 28% of the US winter wheat crop is still experiencing drought conditions as of May 7, unchanged from the prior week. Additionally, recent rains have drastically reduced the spring wheat area in drought, which has declined from 27% to 15% for the same time period.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After holding downside support near 550, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering, HRW crop concerns, and dryness in southern Russia, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and towards last December highs. Although bearish fundamentals remain, and the market shows signs of being overbought which adds downside risk, Managed funds still hold a net short position that has the potential to drive an extended short covering rally should these concerns linger or intensify.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your estimated 2025 SRW wheat production. Since our last sales recommendation for next year’s SRW wheat crop, July ’25 Chicago has rallied over 70 cents and is approaching the 62% retracement level from the March low back to contract highs, as Managed funds cover their extensive net short positions on world production concerns for this year’s crop. While plenty of time remains for other bullish factors to enter the scene that could push prices further, this rally may primarily be weather driven and short-lived, and we advise you to take advantage of these elevated prices to sell another portion of your estimated 2025 SRW production.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Support near the 200-day moving average has held, and the close above 633 ¼ opens the door for the market to test the area of 664 and then 684 as it moves toward the July high of 777 ¼. A slide lower and close below 593 ½ may encounter support around the 50-day moving average (568) with 548 support below that.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid 590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen since last December. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, and while Managed funds covered a significant portion of their net short positions, they remain short the market, which could still push prices higher if production concerns persist.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. With that said, we are currently evaluating the market situation before setting a target for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month long 552 – 605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and weather has become a larger factor, we are currently targeting the 760 – 780 range versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front-month KC wheat appears to be consolidating following the recent rally. Nearby support below the market sits near 623, with nearby resistance just overhead near the recent 679 high. A close above 679 should be supportive for a run towards 700 psychological resistance, while a close below 623 could open the door for a slide toward 600 support.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market and indications of overbought conditions, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer. Moreover, the fact that Managed funds still maintain a net short position suggests the potential for an extended rally if further production concerns emerge.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Following the recent breakout to the upside and the subsequent rally off the April lows, we recommended making a sale to take advantage of the elevated prices. The current strategy is to look for an extension of the rally toward last December’s highs and target 725 – 750 to recommend additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After reaching a high of 731 in July Minneapolis wheat, the market seems to be consolidating after becoming overbought. Nearby support is around 697 – 690 ½, and a close below this range could signal a further decline toward support levels at 675 and 660. Conversely, a close above 731 could pave the way for prices to advance toward the November high of 752, although resistance may be encountered in the 725 – 735 area.

Other Charts / Weather

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5-8 End of Day: Markets Close Lower Across the Board as They Consolidate Ahead of Friday’s Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Talk of heavy farmer selling in both the US and South America weighed on the corn market which saw follow through selling on Monday’s loss of upward momentum. July corn futures retraced lower to settle at its 100-day moving average.

  • The soybean market closed lower across the board, as traders took profits and squared positions from the recent rally ahead of Friday’s WASDE report.

  • Both soybean products also settled lower today. July soybean oil reversed lower as it hit resistance at its 20-day moving average, following the sharp decline in Malaysian palm oil. Soybean meal saw another day of profit-taking, with traders likely exiting long positions ahead of Friday’s report.

  • Lower Matif wheat, a stronger US Dollar, and a report from SovEcon putting Russia’s April wheat stocks 65% ahead of the historical average likely triggered a round of profit taking the wheat complex, pressuring prices lower in all three classes. 

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, the US 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, as well as the 1-week total precipitation for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of NOAA, NWS, and CPC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Despite July ’24 corn rallying beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, the market exhibits signs of being overbought, potentially adding resistance to higher prices. However, managed funds have retained a significant net short position, likely sparking the recent rally which could fuel a more substantial upside move as we progress through planting and into the growing season. Despite potential obstacles, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus July ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong selling hit the grain markets, pulling corn lower on the day as the recent rally’s momentum seemed to lose steam on Tuesday, and saw follow through selling on Wednesday. July corn futures fell back to test support at the 100-day moving average. This will likely be a key support level for Thursday’s session.

  • Talk of strong producer selling of corn in the US, Brazil, and Argentina likely weighed on corn markets as the recent price rally provided opportunities for producers to get caught up on sales for both old and new crop bushels. The movement of corn has been reflected in a widening basis in some areas of the Corn Belt. South American sales moved more bushels to ports for export, creating competition against US corn.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations are for new sales from last week to be near the 700,000 mt – 1.0 mmt levels. On last week’s report, US exporters reported new sales of 759,000 mt.

  • The USDA will release the next WASDE report on Friday morning. The May report will give the market its first estimates for the 24/25 marketing year and updates for the current marketing year. Old crop corn carryout is expected to decrease slightly, but 24/25 will likely show the potential for large production and increased carryout year over year.

  • After the release of Friday’s USDA report, the planting pace will move back into focus for the market. Planting will continue to struggle as another weather system is moving across the Corn Belt this week. The forecast is showing a break in the weather in the middle of the month, but expectations are for a warm and wetter forecast into the end of May.

Above: The recent move up took July corn into overbought status and to a high of 472, just above the 200-day moving average. Being overbought makes the market more vulnerable to a downturn. Should that occur, support may be found down near 445 to 440. If prices turn back higher, initial resistance remains near the 472 high, and then again around 495 – 510.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans finished the day significantly lower along with lower closes in both soybean meal and oil. Much of today’s downward pressure was likely due to profit taking following the recent rally along with positioning ahead of Friday’s WASDE report. Planting delays in the US along with flooding in South America has been supportive to this rally.

  • Early trade estimates for Friday’s USDA report have the 23/24 soybean ending stocks relatively unchanged, and the ending stocks for 24/25 are estimated at 439 mb, using a soybean yield of 52.0 bpa. The Argentinian bean crop is expected to be revised lower to 49.7 mmt from 50 mmt, and Brazil’s production is expected to be lowered to 152.5 mmt from 155 mmt last month.

  • In Argentina, there is a big problem with leaf hopper insects spreading disease among the corn crop, and there is a possibility that this could continue into further seasons, especially with warmer weather. As a result, many Argentinian producers are reporting that they will plant more soybeans than corn in the future in order to mitigate potential yield losses in corn.

  • The flooding in Rio Grande do Sul has been a large impact on this rally and specifically has benefitted soybean meal as Brazil typically exports a portion of its bean crop to Argentina to be crushed. The flooding comes after a season that suffered through drought conditions as well further impacting yields in those areas.

Above: While the close above the 1248 January high on May 6 set the market up to target the 1290 ¾  – 1296 ¾ gap and the subsequent 1328 – 1352 resistance area, it also left the market overbought and vulnerable to a decline. Initial support could be found between 1227 and 1207, with further support between 1192 and 1146 if the market slides further.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat finished with losses in all three classes today. The US Dollar Index has been trending higher the past two days, putting pressure on the market. Additionally, Matif wheat was down again today, offering weakness. Profit taking after the recent strong uptrend may also be considered a culprit for the lower trade today.

  • Russia has reportedly reduced their wheat export tax by 3% to 3,171 rubles per mt, for the time period ending May 21. In other news, Russia is said to have been the lowest offer for Egypt’s wheat tender, at $255 per mt FOB. In a final note about Russia, Sov Econ has reported their wheat stocks at the end of April to be 27.5 mmt, which is 65% above the average.

  • The flooding in Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil has caused damage to the soybean crop in addition to transportation and logistics issues. As it relates to wheat, the wet weather is also causing major delays to winter wheat planting in the region.

  • A crop tour in Oklahoma has come up with a projected 2024 wheat crop at just over 89 mb, with an average yield of 33.68 bpa. These estimates were the result of field assessments led by educators from Oklahoma State University Extension, as well as crop consultants and agronomists.

  • China has reportedly approved the safety of genetically edited wheat for the first time. Over the past year or so they have approved the use of certain GMO soybean and corn seeds as well. The key difference is that genetic editing involves altering the plant’s existing genes, while genetic modification involves the implementation of foreign genes into the plant’s DNA. This is a step forward for China as they work to become more self-sufficient with their agriculture.

  • Later this week, record cold temperatures may hit parts of Russia and Ukraine, which may affect spring crops. However, damage to winter wheat is not expected to be much of an issue, as is evident by a lack of response from the market at this time.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After holding downside support near 550, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering, HRW crop concerns, and dryness in southern Russia, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and towards last December highs. Although bearish fundamentals remain, and the market shows signs of being overbought which adds downside risk, Managed funds still hold a net short position that has the potential to drive an extended short covering rally should these concerns linger or intensify.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your estimated 2025 SRW wheat production. Since our last sales recommendation for next year’s SRW wheat crop, July ’25 Chicago has rallied over 70 cents and is approaching the 62% retracement level from the March low back to contract highs, as Managed funds cover their extensive net short positions on world production concerns for this year’s crop. While plenty of time remains for other bullish factors to enter the scene that could push prices further, this rally may primarily be weather driven and short-lived, and we advise you to take advantage of these elevated prices to sell another portion of your estimated 2025 SRW production.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Support near the 200-day moving average has held, and the close above 633 ¼ opens the door for the market to test the area of 664 and then 684 as it moves toward the July high of 777 ¼. A slide lower and close below 593 ½ may encounter support around the 50-day moving average (568) with 548 support below that.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid 590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen since last December. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, and while Managed funds covered a significant portion of their net short positions, they remain short the market, which could still push prices higher if production concerns persist.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. With that said, we are currently evaluating the market situation before setting a target for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month long 552 – 605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and weather has become a larger factor, we are currently targeting the 760 – 780 range versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front-month KC wheat appears to be consolidating following the recent rally. Nearby support below the market sits near 623, with nearby resistance just overhead near the recent 679 high. A close above 679 should be supportive for a run towards 700 psychological resistance, while a close below 623 could open the door for a slide toward 600 support.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market and indications of overbought conditions, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer. Moreover, the fact that Managed funds still maintain a net short position suggests the potential for an extended rally if further production concerns emerge.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Following the recent breakout to the upside and the subsequent rally off the April lows, we recommended making a sale to take advantage of the elevated prices. The current strategy is to look for an extension of the rally toward last December’s highs and target 725 – 750 to recommend additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After reaching a high of 731 in July Minneapolis wheat, the market seems to be consolidating after becoming overbought. Nearby support is around 697 – 690 ½, and a close below this range could signal a further decline toward support levels at 675 and 660. Conversely, a close above 731 could pave the way for prices to advance toward the November high of 752, although resistance may be encountered in the 725 – 735 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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5-7 End of Day: Turnaround Tuesday Strikes as Grains Close Mostly Lower Following Monday’s Rally

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Farmer selling and bear spreading weighed on the nearby end of the corn futures market which turned lower from overnight strength on slower than anticipated planting progress. The slower planting progress helped support new crop futures.

  • Like corn, the soybean market saw a fair amount of bear spreading which supported the new crop end of the futures market due to the slower than expected planting pace, with nearby old crop contracts showing small losses.

  • Soybean meal and oil also reversed directions with oil gaining on meal as traders likely booked profits and covered some recent long meal, short oil positions. The net changes in both products largely offset each other with little net affect on nearby Board crush margins or soybeans.

  • All three wheat classes saw lower closes with bear spreading noted in both Chicago and KC where the nearby contracts lost to the deferreds. Rain in dry HRW areas and lower Matif wheat may have triggered profit taking from the recent rally, as winter wheat good to excellent ratings increased 1%.  

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, the US 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, as well as the 1-week total precipitation for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of NOAA, NWS, and CPC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Despite July ’24 corn rallying beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, the market exhibits signs of being overbought, potentially adding resistance to higher prices. However, managed funds have retained a significant net short position, likely sparking the recent rally which could fuel a more substantial upside move as we progress through planting and into the growing season. Despite potential obstacles, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus July ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Front end corn futures reversed lower from overnight strength as increased producer selling in the US and South America may have limited gains.  A slower than anticipated planting pace supported new crop futures as bear spreading was evident across grain markets on Tuesday, with deferred contracts gaining on the nearby.

  • The USDA reported crop progress and planting pace on Monday afternoon. US corn planting slowed last week due to wet weather as only 36% of the crop was planted as of Sunday. This was up 9% from last week and below market expectations. The 5-year average was at 39%, and with only 36% of the crop planted, 2024 has become the third slowest planting pace over the last 10 years. Only 2019 and 2022 were slower.

  • The planting pace will continue to struggle as another weather system moves across the Corn Belt this week. The forecast is showing a break in the weather in the middle of the month, but expectations are for a warm and wetter forecast into the end of May.

  • The USDA will release the next WASDE report on Friday morning. The May report will give the market its first estimates for the 24/25 marketing year and updates for the current marketing year.  Old crop corn carryout is expected to decrease slightly, but 24/25 will likely show the potential for large production and increased carryout year over year.

Above: July corn pierced the 200-day moving average and closed above 460 resistance, opening the door for a potential run toward the 495 – 510 resistance area. The market is showing signs of being overbought, which can be an obstacle to a higher move while adding fuel to any decline. To the downside, initial support may be found between 445 and 435, with greater support down near 421.

Above: Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day mixed in bear spreading trade which saw the front months slightly lower but gains in the deferred months. Prices were likely correcting a bit after the recent rally and ahead of the USDA report on Friday. Soybean meal finished the day lower while soybean oil was higher. Since May 1, funds are estimated to have short covered 35,500 contracts of soybeans.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that the soybean crop is 25% planted which was below the trade estimate of 28% and compares with 18% last week. Soybean plantings are still above the 5-year average of 21% but could slip if progress is stalled again this week. 9% of the crop has emerged.

  • Early trade estimates for Friday’s USDA report have the 23/24 soybean ending stocks relatively unchanged, and the ending stocks for 24/25 are estimated at 439 mb, using a soybean yield of 52.0 bpa. The Argentinian bean crop is expected to be revised lower to 49.7 mmt from 50 mmt, and Brazil’s production is expected to be lowered to 152.5 mmt from 155 mmt last month.

  • The flooding in Rio Grande do Sul has had a large impact on this rally and has now been declared a state of emergency. The flooding has specifically benefitted soybean meal as Brazil typically exports a portion of its bean crop to Argentina to be crushed. The flooding comes after a season that suffered through drought conditions as well further impacting yields in those areas.

Above: A close above the 1248 late January high opens the door for the market to target the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap, and then the 1328 – 1352 resistance area.  A slide back lower may encounter support in the congestion area between 1192 and 1146, with key support near the February low of 1128 ¼.

Above: Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a few strong sessions, wheat, along with the rest of the grain complex, took a breather with lower closes in all three classes. Bear spreading was noted in Chicago and KC wheat, in which nearby contracts were under heavier selling pressure compared to deferred. This could be a result of profit taking after the strong rally, with the recent rains throughout the nation’s midsection. Matif wheat futures closed marginally lower today as well, offering no support to the US market.

  • On yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, the USDA said that the winter wheat condition improved 1% to 50% good to excellent. Looking at the breakdown, SRW wheat is rated 74% GTE, while HRW is only 45% GTE. Additionally, spring wheat planting went from 34% complete a week ago to 47% done this week. This is well above last year’s 21% and the 5-year average at 31%.

  • The weather forecast for southwest Russia and eastern Ukraine could feature a hard freeze later this week which may provide some support to wheat. Black Sea wheat is still the world’s cheapest, but with Russian export values said to be firming, it could lead to more competitive US exports.  

  • According to Stats Canada, Canadian wheat stocks at the end of March totaled 11.756 mmt. This was below the expectations for a 12.2 mmt figure, but this is also well below 13.9 mmt last year. Excluding durum wheat, the stocks total 10.1 mmt. This adds to the overall bullish picture for wheat futures.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After holding downside support near 550, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering, HRW crop concerns, and dryness in southern Russia, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and towards last December highs. Although bearish fundamentals remain, and the market shows signs of being overbought which adds downside risk, Managed funds still hold a net short position that has the potential to drive an extended short covering rally should these concerns linger or intensify.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your estimated 2025 SRW wheat production. Since our last sales recommendation for next year’s SRW wheat crop, July ’25 Chicago has rallied over 70 cents and is approaching the 62% retracement level from the March low back to contract highs, as Managed funds cover their extensive net short positions on world production concerns for this year’s crop. While plenty of time remains for other bullish factors to enter the scene that could push prices further, this rally may primarily be weather driven and short-lived, and we advise you to take advantage of these elevated prices to sell another portion of your estimated 2025 SRW production.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Support near the 200-day moving average has held, and the close above 633 ¼ opens the door for the market to test the area of 664 and then 684 as it moves toward the July high of 777 ¼. A slide lower and close below 593 ½ may encounter support around the 50-day moving average (568) with 548 support below that.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid 590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen since last December. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, and while Managed funds covered a significant portion of their net short positions, they remain short the market, which could still push prices higher if production concerns persist.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. With that said, we are currently evaluating the market situation before setting a target for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month long 552 – 605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and weather has become a larger factor, we are currently targeting the 760 – 780 range versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The May 6 close above the 664 and the 200-day average opens the door for the market to make a run toward psychological resistance near 700, with additional resistance above there around 722. If the market reverses lower, initial support may come in near 623 and again near 600.

Above: Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (pink).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market and indications of overbought conditions, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer. Moreover, the fact that Managed funds still maintain a net short position suggests the potential for an extended rally if further production concerns emerge.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Following the recent breakout to the upside and the subsequent rally off the April lows, we recommended making a sale to take advantage of the elevated prices. The current strategy is to look for an extension of the rally toward last December’s highs and target 725 – 750 to recommend additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: While the close above 712 in the July contract puts the market on track to continue toward the November high of 752, it could still face resistance in the 725 – 735 area. The close above 712 also puts the market solidly in overbought territory and at risk of a downturn. Should this occur, initial support may come around 690, with further support between 675 and 660.

Above: Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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5-6 End of Day: Positive Money Flow and Likely Short Covering Leads Beans and Wheat Sharply Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • At the open of today’s day session, the corn market quickly transitioned from negative to positive, with July corn closing just a penny off the high. Managed funds likely covered more short positions, supported by money flowing into the commodity markets and big positive moves in wheat and soybeans.

  • July beans settle at their highest level since January after 4 consecutive higher closes as traders likely cover short positions.

  • Soybean meal and oil added additional support to soybeans as they both closed sharply higher today and pushed July Board crush margins 8 ½ cents higher. Harvest delays in Argentina and flooding in S. Brazil both contributed to the rally.

  • Following a weak start to the day due to more than expected rain in the southwestern Plains, all three wheat classes rebounded to settle sharply higher, supported by higher soybeans and dry conditions in the Black Sea region. July Chicago wheat posted its highest close since last December, while July KC posted its highest close since November.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, the US 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, as well as the 1-week total precipitation for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of NOAA, NWS, and CPC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Although July ’24 corn has rallied beyond the congestion range on the front month continuous charts, it remains below its high of 460 that was posted on March 28. With little fresh bullish fundamental news, managed funds have maintained a significant net short position. While the fund’s large net short position likely sparked the recent rise in prices and could fuel a more significant upside move as we move through planting and into the growing season, the market now shows signs of being overbought, which could add resistance to higher prices. Despite potential obstacles along the way, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus July ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong money flow into the grain markets helped to lift corn futures higher on the session. July corn futures closed at their highest point since January 12 as funds continued to cover short positions.

  • On last week’s Commitment of Traders report, managed money reduced their net short position to 218,040 contracts, reduced by 20,506 contracts from last week as of April 30. With the recent price action, estimates will have funds under 200,000 short contracts and challenging the lowest net short since the start of the year.

  • The USDA will release its next estimate of planting pace this afternoon. Expectations for corn planting are to be 39% complete as of May 5. This would be up 12% from last week, and in line with the 5-year average.

  • Weekly export inspections showed good movement for corn exports last week. The USDA inspected 50.8 mb (1.286 mmt) of corn for shipment last week. Total inspections are now at 1.299 billion bushels, up 33% over last year, while the USDA is forecasting a 26% year-over-year increase.

  • Weather models are forecasting rounds of precipitation to push through the Corn Belt, which could limit planting until the middle of May. The recent 6–10 day forecast is showing a drier than normal pattern going into the middle of the month. Dry weather would be helpful in keeping the planting pace on target after an overall wet couple of weeks in the Corn Belt.

Above: July corn pierced the 200-day moving average and closed above 460 resistance, opening the door for a potential run toward the 495 – 510 resistance area. The market is showing signs of being overbought, which can be an obstacle to a higher move while adding fuel to any decline. To the downside, initial support may be found between 445 and 435, with greater support down near 421.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 30. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 20,506 contracts between April 24 – 30, bringing their total position to a net short 218,040 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In mid to late April soybeans posted an intermediate low and a bullish reversal with some subsequent short covering which rallied the market back toward early April’s congestion area. While that initial rally was limited, and the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain short about 149,000 contracts according to the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel an extended short covering rally should any production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed sharply higher again to kick off the week and have now posted 4 consecutively higher closes with the July contract gaining a whopping 85 ¾ cents since just last Wednesday. Both products closed higher but soybean meal was the clear leader with gains of over 4% as South American flooding threatens yields.

  • In Brazil, the last of the soybeans left in the field are deteriorating as heavy flooding disrupts harvest in Rio Grande do Sul. Reuters has estimated that Brazil’s total soybean production could fall by as much as 15% in that state for a total production of 19 to 20 mmt where the previous estimates had been closer to 22 mmt.

  • Today’s soybean export inspections were within the range of trade guesses at 12.8 mb for the week ending Thursday, May 2. This was greater than last week’s inspections but still put the total for 23/24 at 1.438 billion bushels, which is down 18% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating total soybean exports at 1.700 bb for 23/24 which would be down 15% from last year, but that number could change in Friday’s Supply and Demand report.

  • Friday’s CFTC report surprisingly showed funds as net sellers of 222 contracts of soybeans as of April 30, which increased their net short position to 149,236 contracts. It should be noted that the more significant rally came the following day with the July contract gaining 37 ¾ cents on the week.

Above: A close above the 1248 late January high opens the door for the market to target the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap, and then the 1328 – 1352 resistance area.  A slide back lower may encounter support in the congestion area between 1192 and 1146, with key support near the February low of 1128 ¼.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 30. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 222 contracts between April 24 – 30, bringing their total position to a net short 149,236 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite a weaker start to the session, possibly influenced by rains in the southwestern Plains, all three US wheat classes closed sharply higher. Support came from the surging soybean market and expectations of continued dry weather in Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, Paris milling wheat futures saw a significant jump, with the September contract gaining 10.25 euros per metric ton, marking its highest level since mid-September 2023.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 11.8 mb bring total 23/24 inspections to 634 mb, which is down 7% from last year. Inspections are currently behind the pace to meet the USDA’s goal. There will need to be about 55 mb more wheat exports in May to reach the USDA’s 710 mb export goal.

  • IKAR has reportedly lowered their estimate of Russia’s wheat crop by 2 mmt to 91 mmt. There is talk that there may be a further decline to 90 mmt. And with dry weather anticipated to continue into mid-May, there may be cuts to both Russian and Ukrainian wheat production down the road. In addition, IKAR has also said that the Russian wheat export values rose by four dollars last week to $216 per mt.

  • Managed funds bought back a signification amount of wheat last week. The combined short position in all three US classes now totals only 87,000 contracts. This is the smallest net short position since September of last year. Between April 23 and 30, their short position in Chicago wheat, in particular, declined by about 37%, from just over 76K contracts to just under 48K.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After holding downside support near 550, Chicago wheat staged a rally, likely fueled by Managed fund short covering and HRW crop concerns, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and towards last December’s highs. Although bearish fundamentals remain, and the market shows signs of being overbought which adds downside risk, Managed funds still hold a net short position that has the potential to drive an extended short covering rally should any crop more concerns arise as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your estimated 2025 SRW wheat production. Since our last sales recommendation for next year’s SRW wheat crop, July ’25 Chicago has rallied over 70 cents and is approaching the 62% retracement level from the March low back to contract highs as Managed funds cover their extensive net short positions on world production concerns for this year’s crop. While plenty of time remains for other bullish factors to enter the scene that could push prices further, this rally may primarily be weather driven and short-lived, and we advise you to take advantage of these elevated prices to sell another portion of your estimated 2025 SRW production.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Support near the 200-day moving average has held, and the close above 633 ¼ opens the door for the market to test the area of 664 and then 684 as it moves toward the July high of 777 ¼. A slide lower and close below 593 ½ may encounter support around the 50-day moving average (567) with 548 support below that.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 30. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 28,318 contracts between April 24 – 30, bringing their total position to a net short 47,866 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid 590’s on the topside and mid 550’s down low, with little to move prices higher. All the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen since last December. Although low world export prices continue to be a drag on US demand and prices, and while Managed funds covered a significant portion of their net short positions, they remain short the market, which could still push prices higher if production concerns persist.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. With that said, we are currently evaluating the market situation before setting a target for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month long 552 – 605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and weather has become a larger factor, we are currently targeting the 760 – 780 range versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The May 6 close above the 664 and the 200-day average opens the door for the market to make a run toward psychological resistance near 700, with additional resistance above there around 722. If the market reverses lower, initial support may come in near 623 and again near 600.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Apr. 30. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 18,598 contracts between Apr. 24 – 30, bringing their total position to a net short 29,610 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between mid-February and much of April Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower with little bullish fundamental news to drive prices higher. In late April, driven by world wheat crop concerns and dryness in the HRW growing areas, and fueled by likely Managed fund short covering, Minneapolis wheat rallied back toward the January highs. Although bullish fundamentals remain scarce, and the market shows signs of being overbought, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen as we approach late spring and early summer. Furthermore, Managed funds still hold a net short position that could fuel an extended rally if more production concerns arise.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Following the recent breakout to the upside and the subsequent rally off the April lows, we recommended making a sale to take advantage of the elevated prices. The current strategy is to look for an extension of the rally toward last December’s highs and target 725 – 750 to recommend additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: While the close above 712 in the July contract puts the market on track to continue toward the November high of 752, it could still face resistance in the 725 – 735 area. The close above 712 also puts the market solidly in overbought territory and at risk of a downturn. Should this occur, initial support may come around 690, with further support between 675 and 660.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Apr. 30. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 15,262 contracts between Apr. 24 – 30, bringing their total position to a net short 9,294 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.