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7-11 End of Day: Grain Markets Rebound on Short Covering Ahead of Friday’s USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market closed on a firm note ahead of tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report. Although the report is expected to show increased supplies for both old and new crops, the market likely found support from traders covering short positions in preparation of its release and from strength in neighboring wheat.

  • Soybean prices traded both sides of unchanged during the session as traders squared their positions ahead of tomorrow’s report. Support from sharply higher soybean oil and moderately higher meal helped soybeans settle mostly higher, well above the day’s lows.

  • The wheat complex settled higher on the day across all three classes led by the KC contracts. The complex likely saw a measure of short covering that was triggered by reports of Ukraine seizing a ship carrying looted grain, and further fueled by a sharply lower US Dollar on cooler than expected inflation data.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, an US Drought Monitor courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  With it being the time of year to start getting early sales on the books for next year, and considering that the higher-than-expected June 1 stocks suggest an increasing supply outlook for the 2024 crop, which could create overhead resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, allowing the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market was firmer on the session, supported by strength in the wheat market and short covering ahead of Friday’s USDA WASDE/Crop production report. The December contract is trading down 13 ¼ cents on the week going into the Friday session. The July futures contract expires on Friday.

  • Expectations for the USDA Crop Production report on Friday is looking for increased corn carry out for the current and next marketing year as the USDA will be adding in the numbers from the Acreage and Grain Stocks reports on June 28. Expectations are for corn carryout for the 24/25 marketing year to reach 2.272 billion bushels, up 170 mb from last month. Typically, the USDA will not adjust yield or acreage in the July report.

  • The weekly export sales report was within expectations for corn. Last week, US exporters posted new sales of 21.2 mb (538,000 mt) of old crop and 4.6 mb (117,000 mt) of new crop corn. Total new crop sales remain disappointing and have limited market strength.

  • The Brazil Ag Agency, CONAB, released their July crop projections for corn and soybeans this morning. CONAB increased Brazil’s corn crop forecast to 115.86 mmt, up 1.7 mmt from their June projections, as yields were better than expected in some areas for the second crop harvest. Total corn production is still 12% smaller than last year, which totaled 131.89 mmt.

Above: Since mid-June the corn market has been stuck in a downtrend, and the market’s pierce of 393 support suggests that it may slide further, possibly towards the next support area between 362 and 360, if 393 doesn’t hold. If this area of support holds and prices rally back, they could encounter overhead resistance around 410 – 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the upper 1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the 1240 – 1280 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly mixed, with front month August higher, the September contract unchanged, and the deferred contracts higher, after prices fell from their highs earlier this morning following a disappointing export sales report. Funds were likely exiting some short positions ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report as well. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher.

  • Today’s export sales report showed an increase in soybean export sales of 7.6 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 7.0 mb for 24/25. This was down 9% from the previous week and 40% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments of 9.8 mb were below the 14.3 mb needed each week, and primary destinations were to the Netherlands, Indonesia, and Japan.

  • Tomorrow, the USDA will release its WASDE report and expectations are for old crop ending stocks to increase slightly while new crop is expected to fall a bit due to lower acreage. Brazil’s soybean production is expected to be lowered as well.

  • This morning, CONAB released its July estimates for Brazil’s soybean production but made few changes. Production was called at 147.34 mmt compared to 147.35 mmt last month. This compares to 154.61 mmt last year and is still well below the USDA’s last estimate.

Above: The recent break through 1125 support suggests that the market could retreat further towards the next major support area between 1050 and 1040, though psychological support may be uncovered around 1100. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1130 with further resistance up towards 1160 – 1165.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed sharply higher with Kansas City futures leading the charge. Talk that Ukraine seized a Russian cargo vessel containing stolen wheat put some war premium back into the marketplace. Additionally, CONAB lowered their estimate of Brazil’s wheat production from 9.065 mmt last month, to 8.956 mmt this month. Finally, the US Dollar Index was sharply lower today, and at one point hit the lowest level in about a month before gaining some ground back.  

  • Tomorrow will feature the USDA’s monthly Supply and Demand report. The average pre-report estimate for US all wheat production is 1.913 bb, which would be up from 1.875 bb in June. Additionally, US ending stocks are expected to increase. For 23/24 the average guess is 698 mb versus 688 mb in June, and for 24/25 the trade guess is pegged at 793 mb versus 758 mb last month. Finally, world wheat carryout is expected to increase slightly for both crop seasons as well.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 8.8 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 10.8 mb fell below the 15.5 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 800 mb. However, US wheat sales commitments are up 42% from this time last year at 262 mb.

  • Canadian wheat production is estimated at 33.3 mmt, which is a decline of 1% from the previous estimate. Lower potential yields in the province of Saskatchewan due to dryness is cited as the reason for the drop. Yield projections are unchanged for both Alberta and Manitoba.

  • According to their agriculture ministry, Ukraine has exported 1.13 mmt of grain since the season began on July 1. This represents an increase of 62% over last year’s 689,000 mt exported during the same timeframe. Of that total, 320,000 mt was said to be wheat, which is a 51% increase year over year. The surge in exports could be explained by delays and slow inspections last year before Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since late June Chicago wheat has been largely rangebound between 591 up top and 556 down below. Should support hold and prices breakout and close above 600 psychological resistance, they could move toward the 630 – 645 area, while a close below 556 could find further support between 550 and 520.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After breaking through the bottom end of its consolidation range, KC wheat may have found support in the 560 – 550 area of last spring’s lows. If this area holds, prices could turn higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 534 – 554 resistance area. Otherwise, a break below 550 could find further support in the 530 area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 700 – 710 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 644. As long as the Sept ’25 contract remains above 644 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 690 – 710. If the Sept ’25 contract were to close below 644, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 690 – 710 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Therefore, a break of support would trigger a sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: It appears that the rally off the 600 support area encountered resistance just below 640. Should prices continue lower, support remains between 600 and 596, with heavier support towards 542. While a close above 640 could suggest a rally back towards the 662 – 683 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-10 End of Day: China’s First Announced New Crop Bean Purchase Has Little Effect

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market closed the day mixed, with front months settling firmer under the influence of upcoming July expiration, while new crop contracts settled lower as remnants of tropical storm Beryl provided needed moisture for dry areas.

  • The soybean complex continued its slide as the market took consideration of the much needed rain that fell in the dry areas of the eastern corn belt, as today’s report of the first flash new crop soybean sale to China provided little support to the market. The soybeans closed near session lows across the board with continued selling in both soybean meal and oil.

  • All three wheat classes settled lower on the day with KC contracts leading the way down. While the markets are showing signs of being oversold, technical momentum keeps pressure on prices, with additional weakness carried over from Matif wheat futures and neighboring soybeans.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6-10 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the GRACE-Based Root Zone Soil Moisture Drought Indicator courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, NASA Grace, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  With it being the time of year to start getting early sales on the books for next year, and considering that the higher-than-expected June 1 stocks suggest an increasing supply outlook for the 2024 crop, which could create overhead resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, allowing the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished mixed on the day, as front months, under the influence of July expiration on Friday, posted small gains but deferred contracts failed to find any footing as December corn traded lower, marking another new low for the downward move. 

  • Recent rainfall looks to be beneficial across the eastern corn belt with the path of tropical storm Beryl moving through that region. Corn in that area is in pollination and the moisture should provide a good base for this stage.

  • The weekly ethanol production dropped to 1.064 million barrels/day last week, but still up 2% year over year. A total of 105.6 mb of corn was used last week, which is slightly below the pace needed to reach the USDA marketing year target.

  • The USDA will release the weekly export sales report tomorrow morning. Expectations are for new sales to range from 300,000-850,000 mt for old crop and up to 500,000 mt for new crop sales. Corn sales have softened in the past couple of weeks, as demand may be tapering at the end of the marketing year.

  • The corn market will likely stay choppy going into the USDA Crop Production report on Friday. The USDA will be adding in the numbers from the Acreage and Grain Stocks reports on June 28. Expectations are for corn carryout for the 24/25 marketing year to reach 2.272 billion bushels, up 170 mb from last month.

Above: Since mid-June the corn market has been stuck in a downtrend, and the market’s pierce of 393 support suggests that it may slide further, possibly towards the next support area between 362 and 360, if 393 doesn’t hold. If this area of support holds and prices rally back, they could encounter overhead resistance around 410 – 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the upper 1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the 1240 – 1280 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the third consecutive day after rains fell throughout the eastern Corn Belt yesterday from the remnants of hurricane Beryl. Good weather conditions have continued to pressure soybeans along with the rest of the ag complex, despite a sale to China this morning which did not move prices higher. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.

  • On Friday, the USDA will release its July WASDE report, and early estimates are expecting that US stockpiles for 23/24 will increase slightly by 3 mb while new crop is expected to be unchanged. Brazilian soybean production estimates are expected to be lowered to 152.1 mmt from 153.0 mmt last month, with world stockpiles expected to be mostly unchanged.

  • This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year. This confirmed previous rumors and was also the first new crop sale of soybeans to China so far.

  • As of July 2, funds were reported to have added 11,263 contracts of soybeans to their net short position which increased it to 140,926 contracts. Hedge funds have sold ag products aggressively throughout the past 6 weeks and are now the shortest they have been since September 2019.

Above: The recent break through 1125 support suggests that the market could retreat further towards the next major support area between 1050 and 1040, though psychological support may be uncovered around 1100. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1130 with further resistance up towards 1160 – 1165.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was under pressure again, closing lower across all three US futures classes. Kansas City contracts led the decline with double-digit losses, followed by Chicago futures. This weakness was driven by losses in Paris milling wheat futures and a further drop in US soybean futures. Additionally, momentum indicators point to the downside for wheat, despite futures being near or at oversold levels. 

  • For the season that just ended on June 30, the European Union’s soft wheat exports reached 31 mmt, representing a 2% decline from the 31.6 mmt of shipments last year, according to the European Commission. North African nations were the top importers of this wheat, with Morocco taking 4.28 mmt, Nigeria 3.14 mmt, and Algeria 2.9 mmt.

  • According to an agricultural regulatory agency, Rosselkhoznadzor, Russian grain and grain product exports reached 89.3 mmt in the 23/24 season. This is up 21% from the previous year. This data, based on phytosanitary certificates, also indicated that India’s imports of Russian grain during 23/24 increased by a factor of 22 compared to the previous year.

  • Throughout the next several days, above normal temperatures are expected to move east through the Canadian prairies, and is likely to persist into next week. Much of this area has good soil moisture levels, with some places even in surplus. So, this drier and warmer pattern may actually benefit crops and spring wheat development.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that September KC wheat may have resumed its downtrend, though it may have found support in the 560 – 550 area of last spring’s lows. If this area holds, prices could turn higher before hitting resistance near 600. Otherwise, a break below 550 could find further support in the 530 area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 700 – 710 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 644. As long as the Sept ’25 contract remains above 644 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 690 – 710. If the Sept ’25 contract were to close below 644, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 690 – 710 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Therefore, a break of support would trigger a sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: It appears that the rally off the 600 support area encountered resistance just below 640. Should prices continue lower, support remains between 600 and 596, with heavier support towards 542. While a close above 640 could suggest a rally back towards the 662 – 683 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-9 End of Day: Soybeans Continue Their Slide Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • While the corn market closed fractionally higher on the day, the day’s trade was mostly consolidating in nature following yesterday’s sharp selloff, as another day of steep declines in the soybean market limited any rally potential.

  • Soybeans continued their slide lower from Monday’s weakness with a favorable weather outlook and improved crop ratings. Additional downward pressure came from weaker soybean meal and oil. August soybeans posted fresh contract lows, while November beans posted a new low for the move lower, and its lowest close in three years.

  • Soybean oil led the losses in the soybean complex, as it saw just over a 4% (1.95 cent) decline in the December contract on technical selling from being overbought as traders likely booked profits from its recent sharp rally.

  • Following choppy two sided trade, the wheat complex ended the day mixed with all three classes closing in the lower end of their respective daily ranges. Chicago and KC contracts settled marginally higher, while Minneapolis was lower. While a rebound in Matif wheat lent support, weakness in soybeans and declining Russian export values added overhead resistance.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  With it being the time of year to start getting early sales on the books for next year, and considering that the higher-than-expected June 1 stocks suggest an increasing supply outlook for the 2024 crop, which could create overhead resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, allowing the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market at least took a pause from the selling pressure, but today’s firmer trade was a consolidating type of trade, and disappointing in that the market failed to see some form of true price recovery after Monday’s steep decline. Ongoing strong selling in the soybean market limited rally potential in both corn and wheat during the session.

  • The USDA released the latest crop ratings on Monday afternoon. Corn conditions were rated at 68% good to excellent, up 1% from last week and above market expectations. Key corn producing states of Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana, all saw ratings improve week over week. The corn crop is hitting the pollination stage with 24% of the crop silking, up 10% over the 5-year average.

  • The July 2nd Commitment of Traders report was released on Monday afternoon. Hedge funds were big sellers in the corn market going into that report, adding 58,872 new shorts to reach a net short position of 336,458 contracts. The strong selling pressure from the USDA Grain Stock and Acres report likely boosted that total. The next commitment of traders report data will be collected today and reported on Friday. It is anticipated that the funds net short position will surpass their peak net short from February.

  • Weather forecasts remain overall non-threatening for corn production. Precipitation remaining from Hurricane Beryl is moving through the eastern Corn Belt, providing needed rainfall in some of those areas. Temperatures are to remain above normal, but still in a range that is beneficial for most corn crop development.

  • The combination of a large on-farm corn supply and the potential strong harvest will likely keep pressure on the front end of the market and limit rallies. Producers will be looking to move old crop bushels to make room for the potential new crop supply this fall.

Above: Since mid-June the corn market has been stuck in a downtrend, and the market’s pierce of 393 support suggests that it may slide further, possibly towards the next support area between 362 and 360, if 393 doesn’t hold. If this area of support holds and prices rally back, they could encounter overhead resistance around 410 – 415.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 58,872 contracts between June 26 – July 2, bringing their total position to a net short 336,538 contracts.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1260 – 1290 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower again today after yesterday’s sharp selloff as weather remains mostly favorable and crop conditions improve. Funds have been heavy sellers across the entire ag complex as they anticipate a large crop this fall. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower, but soybean oil was the bigger loser with losses in excess of 4% in all contracts.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the soybean good to excellent rating rising by one point to 68%, while the poor to very poor rating fell to 8%. Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio improved the most while Mississippi, North Carolina, and North Dakota declined. 34% of the crop is blooming, which compares to the average of 28% and 9% are setting pods which compares to the average of 5%.

  • While soybean prices have been falling, crush margins have been rising as a result. Based on August futures, the value of crushed soybeans was $2.44 above the cost of cash soybeans which is one of the most profitable levels since last summer. This has incentivized processors to buy cash soybeans which is supporting the large premium for August futures over the November contract.

  • As of July 2, funds were reported to have added 11,263 contracts of soybeans to their net short position which increased to 140,926 contracts. Hedge funds have sold ag products aggressively throughout the past 6 weeks and are now the shortest they have been since September 2019.

Above: Support in the area of 1130 – 1125 appears to be holding. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1160 – 1165 with further resistance up towards 1185 – 1200. Otherwise, if they retreat further, support may be found near 1045.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 11,263 contracts between June 26 – July 2, bringing their total position to a net short 140,926 contracts.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed marginally higher in Chicago and Kansas City futures but posted small losses in the Minneapolis contracts. Paris milling wheat futures reversed from yesterday’s lower close to post gains of 3.25 to 4.75 euros per mt which was supportive to the US market. However, another increase to the US Dollar Index today limited any upside movement in wheat, along with pressure from the sharply lower soy complex.

  • According to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, winter wheat is now 63% harvested, keeping the pace still well above last year’s 43% and the average of 52%. Additionally, the spring wheat crop is rated 75% good to excellent, a 3% improvement from the previous week and the highest rating for this timeframe in five years. Furthermore, 59% of spring wheat is headed versus 66% a year ago and 60% on average.

  • Russian wheat export values are reportedly continuing to fall according to IKAR, and this should keep pressure on the wheat complex. Said to range from $216 to $224 per mt FOB, that would be $5 to $10 lower than last week’s values. Part of the reason for the decline is due to their wheat harvest peaking and the supply flooding their domestic market.

  • In South America, there is some concern about the winter wheat crops. Planting and crop development are said to be lagging in Brazil, and Rio Grande do Sul is still recovering from historic flooding. In Argentina, soil moisture levels are said to be too low, which may affect establishment of the wheat crop. Widespread frosts in the forecast are also unfavorable.

  • France is Europe’s biggest wheat producer, but due to wet weather their wheat production is expected to fall 15.4% this year to 29.7 mmt. This is according to their ag ministry, and if accurate, would be 14.2% below the five-year average. France’s spring weather was said to be the fourth wettest on record and planted area for soft wheat dropped 10.8% compared with 2023.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,487 contracts between June 26 – July 2, bringing their total position to a net short 73,974 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance is likely near 600 with heavier resistance up towards 630 – 660. Below 576, the market may find further support between 560 – 550.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,031 contracts between June 26 – July 2, bringing their total position to a net short 43,103 contracts.

Above: Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 700 – 710 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 644. As long as the Sept ’25 contract remains above 644 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 690 – 710. If the Sept ’25 contract were to close below 644, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 690 – 710 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Therefore, a break of support would trigger a sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: It appears that the rally off the 600 support area encountered resistance just below 640. Should prices continue lower, support remains between 600 and 596, with heavier support towards 542. While a close above 640 could suggest a rally back towards the 662 – 683 resistance area.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,537 contracts between June 26 – July 2, bringing their total position to a net short 22,455 contracts.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-8 End of Day: A Risk Off Day Leads Grain Markets to a Lower Close

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A “risk-off” day dominated the grain markets, leading December corn to its lowest close since March 2021, driven by technical selling and a non-threatening weather forecast.

  • The soybean complex sold off on an improved weather forecast for the eastern Corn Belt, led by November beans, which printed its lowest close since September 2021. Sharply lower soybean meal and lower soybean oil also contributed to the weakness in soybeans.

  • Along with corn and soybeans, the wheat complex closed sharply lower across all three classes, with pressure coming from a relatively benign weather forecast, a swift Ukrainian wheat harvest, and sharply lower French wheat.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  With it being the time of year to start getting early sales on the books for next year, and considering that the higher-than-expected June 1 stocks suggest an increasing supply outlook for the 2024 crop, which could create overhead resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, allowing the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong selling pressure across the grain markets fueled by technical selling and a friendly weather forecast weighed heavily on the corn market to start the week. December corn futures lost 3.83%, closing at a new low for the move.

  • Corn charts look defensive technically as prices pushed through the low established on June 28 after the Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. The soft technical close looks to have the December corn market ready to test the key psychological 400 price.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn to unknown destinations this morning. The total sales were 135,636 mt, split with 50,800 mt for the 23/24 marketing year and 84,800 mt for the 24/25 marketing year.

  • According to the USDA, as of July 2, just 7% of US corn acres were experiencing drought. While this is a 1% increase from the previous week, it is well below the 67% level a year ago. With growing conditions mostly favorable for most of the Midwest, corn may be difficult to rally without a shift in weather.

  • China is facing extreme weather; their summer has been excessively hot and dry in areas, with flooding and typhoons in other areas. This week there have been flood alerts in multiple provinces, and there is concern about both the Yellow and Yangtze rivers overflowing. All of this could affect corn production, among other crops, and lead to domestic food inflation.

Above: Since mid-June the corn market has been stuck in a downtrend, and the market’s pierce of 393 support suggests that it may slide further, possibly towards the next support area between 362 and 360, if 393 doesn’t hold. If this area of support holds and prices rally back, they could encounter overhead resistance around 410 – 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1260 – 1290 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower in a day of very negative trade across the entire grain complex that was spurred by weather forecasts over the weekend showing hurricane Beryl bringing rains to the eastern Corn Belt. In November soybeans, today’s losses wiped out all of last week’s gains. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower today as well.

  • This morning’s Export Inspections report showed 10 mb of soybeans were inspected for export in the week ending July 4 which was on the lower side and brings total inspections for 23/24 to 1.537 billion bushels, down 16% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating total soybean exports for 23/24 at 1.700 bb.

  • There have been no deliveries so far this month against the July soybean contract while domestic crush demand remains firm. Additionally, the July/August soybean spread has moved to its highs while the August/November spread has widened significantly to 50 ½ cents.

  • The CFTC data was delayed due to the holiday and will be out later this afternoon, but it is estimated that funds hold a net short position of 119,000 contracts of soybeans and 74,000 contracts of bean oil. They are also estimated to be long over 80,000 contracts of soybean meal.

Above: Support in the area of 1130 – 1125 appears to be holding. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1160 – 1165 with further resistance up towards 1185 – 1200. Otherwise, if they retreat further, support may be found near 1045.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed sharply lower alongside corn and soybeans. A relatively benign weather forecast for the majority of the Midwest has offered weakness to corn and beans, and without their support, it will be difficult for wheat to rally. Furthermore, continued winter wheat harvest pressure, a sharply lower close for Paris wheat futures, and a higher US Dollar Index today all created downward pressure.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 12.5 mb bring 24/25 total inspections to 64 mb. That is 14% above a year ago and inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s projected pace. Additionally, they are anticipating 800 mb of wheat exports in 24/25 which would be up 11% from last year.

  • According to Ukraine’s agriculture ministry, the country has harvested 1.62 mmt of wheat as of July 5 across 482,200 hectares. In contrast, last year’s harvest for the same timeframe was significantly lower, with only 172,000 metric tons harvested from 51,400 hectares.

  • As reported by Reuters, Iraq has obtained 5.9 mmt of domestic wheat since their harvest started in April. In addition, according to the Iraqi grain board, the country is expected to purchase a total of 6.3 mmt by the end of harvest.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance is likely near 600 with heavier resistance up towards 630 – 660. Below 576, the market may find further support between 560 – 550.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 700 – 710 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 644. As long as the Sept ’25 contract remains above 644 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 700 – 710. If the Sept ’25 contract were to close below 644, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 700 – 710 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Therefore, a break of support would trigger a sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: It appears that the rally off the 600 support area encountered resistance just below 640. Should prices continue lower, support remains between 600 and 596, with heavier support towards 542. While a close above 640 could suggest a rally back towards the 662 – 683 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-5 End of Day: Higher Closes Across the Board Heading into the Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • While the corn market continues to consolidate following last week’s bearish USDA report, it recovered Wednesday’s losses with help from carryover strength from the wheat market.

  • With continued support from higher soybean oil and additional support from higher meal, the soybean market closed higher for fourth session in a row. It posted a bullish key reversal on both the August and November weekly charts as funds likely covered some short positions to take profits.

  • Reports of declining French wheat yields likely pushed Matif wheat to its higher close which, along with a lower US Dollar, contributed to the sharp rally across the wheat complex as traders returned from the July 4th holiday. While export shipments were weak, wheat export sales for the 24/25 crop year were strong and added to today’s gains.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations. We will be looking to make another sales recommendation by July 8 if our upside objectives aren’t met by then.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Today, the corn market recovered its pre-July 4th holiday losses, but the rally lost momentum as it faced resistance near Tuesday’s highs. Since last Friday’s bearish USDA report, corn futures have remained rangebound as they continue to consolidate.

  • Today the USDA reported new export sales for the week ending June 27. New sales for the 23/24 season came in at 14.1 mb, with 12.3 mb reported for the 24/25 new crop season. Total shipments of 35.2 mb fell below the 37.1 mb pace needed to reach the USDA’s projections.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina’s corn crop is 63% harvested, close to the average pace. However, according to the International Grains Council, US corn FOB values remain slightly cheaper compared to both Argentina and Brazil.

  • Weather forecasts remain mostly favorable for crops heading into next week, with additional rainfall expected in parts of the eastern Corn Belt early in the week, on top of recent precipitation. Temperatures are also predicted to stay around average, which may offer some resistance to the corn market.

Above: Bearish stocks and acreage numbers pushed prices through the February low of 408 ¾. The next level of potential support lies near 393. Initial overhead resistance may enter the market between 420 and 430.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1260 – 1290 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the fourth consecutive day following the 4th of July holiday and closed higher on the week. Support today came from strength in both soybean meal and oil, but there was likely also some end of week profit taking by the funds who have a net short position. Weather has been wet overall, and some areas are dealing with flooding which could be detrimental.

  • For the week, August soybeans, which are the new front month, were higher by 32 ¾ cents at 1166 ¼ and November gained 25 ¾ cents to 1129 ¾. August soybean meal was higher by $11.20 to $357.20, and August soybean oil gained 5.48 cents to 49.55 cents. Strength continued this week after last Friday’s bullish Stocks and Acreage report.

  • The USDA released its export sales report today which was delayed due to the holiday which showed an increase of 8.4 million bushels of soybeans for 23/24 and an increase of 5.5 million bushels for 24/25. Last week’s export shipments of 11.2 mb were below the 13.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Egypt, the Netherlands, and Mexico.

  • There have been rumors that Indonesia and China are headed towards a trade war scenario, with Indonesia potentially placing a 200% import tariff on Chinese goods in order to protect its domestic producers. This could cause China to look elsewhere for soybean oil, potentially the US.

Above: Support in the area of 1130 – 1125 appears to be holding. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1160 – 1165 with further resistance up towards 1185 – 1200. Otherwise, if they retreat further, support may be found near 1045.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed sharply higher across the complex. Support came from a higher close in Matif wheat futures and a lower close for the US Dollar Index after it fell through some moving average support. Additionally, some estimates of declining yields for the French crop are also bullish.

  • According to Intercereales and Arvalis, French wheat crop yields are expected to decline by 13% year over year to 6.4 mt per hectare. This decrease is attributed to very wet weather; initial rains caused planting delays, and additional rains during the growing season led to issues with weeds and disease. If accurate, this yield decline would be about 11% below the average and the lowest since 2016.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 29.6 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments of 11.3 mb last week fell below the 15.6 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 800 mb. In addition, US wheat sales commitments for 24/25 are at 254 mb, which is up 49% from a year ago.

  • Since their season began on July 1, Ukraine has exported 315,000 mt of grain according to their ag ministry. Of this total, 169,000 mt is wheat, a significant increase from the 9,000 mt exported during the same period last year

  • According to FAO-AMIS, 24/25 global wheat stockpiles are estimated at 308.4 mmt, up from their June estimate of 306.8 mmt. Additionally, world wheat production is forecasted at 789.1 mmt which is about equal to the year prior.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 85.3% of the 24/25 wheat crop has now been planted, a 4.3% increase from the previous week. The planted area was kept unchanged at 6.3 million hectares, compared to the 5.9 million hectares planted last year.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance is likely near 600 with heavier resistance up towards 630 – 660. Below 576, the market may find further support between 560 – 550.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 700 – 710 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 644. As long as the Sept ’25 contract remains above 644 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 700 – 710. If the Sept ’25 contract were to close below 644, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 700 – 710 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Therefore, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: It appears that the rally off the 600 support area encountered resistance just below 640. Should prices continue lower, support remains between 600 and 596, with heavier support towards 542. While a close above 640 could suggest a rally back towards the 662 – 683 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-3 End of Day: Markets Close Mixed Going into the July 4th Break; Beans Higher, Corn and Wheat Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Thursday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market continued to consolidate as it headed into the July 4th holiday break. The generally favorable weather forecast and declines in the wheat complex kept overhead pressure in place, limiting corn’s rally potential.

  • Soybeans closed higher for the third consecutive day except for the November ’25 contract, which posted gains on two of the three days. Primary support came from soybean oil, which has settled higher for the last six sessions. Reports of higher SAF/biodiesel capacity and lower soybean oil stocks, despite a rise in crush, have supported the oil market.

  • The wheat complex followed through on yesterday’s weakness across all three classes. Lower Matif wheat added carryover weakness, and though we are on the back half of winter wheat harvest, farmer selling continues to add overhead resistance to prices.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 to 10-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and this week’s Drought Monitor, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations. We will be looking to make another sales recommendation by July 8 if our upside objectives aren’t met by then.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures failed to find any traction before the 4th of July holiday, as the market stayed under pressure with weakness in the wheat market, and an overall benign weather forecast going into the end of the week.

  • Weather forecasts stay friendly for crops going into the holiday. Weather models are looking for rain across portions of Illinois, Indiana into Ohio for the end of the week, with above normal overall temps. The market will be shifting its focus to August weather after the holiday.

  • The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on Friday morning before the market opens. Expectations are for new corn sales to range from 500,000 – 900,000 mt for old crop, and up to 400,000 mt for new. With the expanded potential supply in front of the corn market, export demand will be key in the weeks ahead to cut into that projected supply picture.

  • Despite the holiday, Friday’s trade could be key in setting the direction of the corn market next week.  The failed attempt to push higher on Tuesday and today’s weakness leave the door open for downside pressure. A weaker trading session on Friday with an overall friendly weather forecast could set the tone for next week.

Above: Bearish stocks and acreage numbers pushed prices through the February low of 408 ¾. The next level of potential support lies near 393. Initial overhead resistance may enter the market between 420 and 430.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1260 – 1290 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the third consecutive day ahead of the 4th of July holiday tomorrow. Support has mainly come from higher soybean oil which has closed higher for 6 consecutive days at this point. Soybean meal was mixed again with lower closes in the front months and higher closes in the deferred.

  • This morning, the USDA announced a flash export sale of 110,100 mt (4 MB) of soybeans to unknown destinations. This sale was split with 55,100 mt for old crop and 55,000 mt for new.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Friday morning. Expectations are for US exporters to report new sales ranging from 200,000 – 600,000 mt for old crop and 50,000 – 150,000 mt of new. New crop sales are off to an extremely slow start. Currently, new crop soybean sales are at 1.225 mmt, a 24-year low for this time of year.

  • After the 4th of July holiday, the market will shift its focus to the August weather forecast. August weather is the key for development of the soybean crop. Weather has been mixed so far this month with necessary rains falling in the eastern Corn Belt, while other areas in the northwest have received too much rain.

Above: Support in the area of 1130 – 1125 appears to be holding. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1160 – 1165 with further resistance up towards 1185 – 1200. Otherwise, if they retreat further, support may be found near 1045.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex continued its decline, unable to recover from yesterday’s losses, after encountering overhead resistance near the previous day’s highs. Despite harvest progress surpassing 54%, brisk farmer selling likely added to the overhead pressure. Additionally, Matif wheat closed below significant moving average support, adding carryover weakness to the US wheat markets.

  • Drought conditions are reportedly spreading in the Black Sea region, with expected temperatures in the 90s and 100s, potentially impacting the yields of Russian spring wheat.

  • The ongoing Russian wheat harvest has seen better than expected yields with minimal frost damage as reported by some Russian groups, which has been weighing on Russian export prices, and pressuring world wheat prices since the run up in May on Russian wheat production concerns.

  • SovEcon has raised its estimate of Russia’s wheat crop by 3.4 mmt to 84.1 mmt. For comparison, the USDA’s estimate is 83 mmt, which aligns with most private estimates hovering around 80 mmt.

  • The Minneapolis Grain Exchange reported in its weekly report that spring wheat stocks stored in Minnesota and Wisconsin warehouses as of June 30 were down 5.6% to 10.954 million bushels from the same period last year.  When compared to the week prior, stocks fell 76,000 bu.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance is likely near 600 with heavier resistance up towards 630 – 660. Below 576, the market may find further support between 560 – 550.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Grain Market Insider is continuing to monitor the markets and may begin considering the first sales targets after July 8.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: It appears that the rally off the 600 support area encountered resistance just below 640. Should prices continue lower, support remains between 600 and 596, with heavier support towards 542. While a close above 640 could suggest a rally back towards the 662 – 683 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-2 End of Day: Corn and Beans Close in the Green, But Well Off Their Highs

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Thursday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • With the prospect of a large crop looming, and carryover weakness from the wheat market, corn futures were unable to hold the majority of their earlier gains despite the reporting of a 100,000 mt flash sale.

  • Like corn, the soybean market was unable to hold most of its gains from earlier in the session. Good to excellent crop ratings that remain the highest since 2020 continue to add pressure, but sharply higher soybean oil lent support.

  • Soybean oil extended yesterday’s gains, closing sharply higher, supported by lower-than-expected soybean oil stocks from updated Census crush data. Meanwhile, soybean meal settled mixed, with the August contract closing higher while the deferred contracts closed lower.

  • A fast harvest pace and pressure from lower Matif wheat futures weighed on the wheat complex, which settled mostly lower on potential profit taking from yesterday’s rally.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6-10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the Monthly US Drought Outlook courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations. We will be looking to make another sales recommendation by July 8 if our upside objectives aren’t met by then.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures softened from early session gains to finish mixed on the session, as the prospects of large supplies, lack of consistent demand, and weakness in the wheat market weighed on corn futures.

  • Overall demand has become more stagnant for corn, but old crop USDA targets will still likely be reached. New crop export demand has been disappointing compared to the last handful of years. Demand will be a key for the market to find stability. The USDA announced a flash sale of corn, with Columbia purchasing 100,000 mt (3.9 MB) of old crop corn.

  • On Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, the USDA reported that corn conditions fell to 67% good to excellent, down 2% from last week, and slightly below market expectations. This rating is well above last year’s 51% G/E rating.

  • The Brazilian Real is trading at its lowest level versus the US Dollar since January 2022.  The weakening Brazilian currency improves the competitiveness of Brazilian corn and soybeans versus the US on the global export market.

  • Weather forecasts will remain a major focus for the markets going into the key July weather time frame. While the forecast remains on the warm side, precipitation remains active into the middle of the month. Currently, weather is non-threatening overall to crop production.

Above: Bearish stocks and acreage numbers pushed prices through the February low of 408 ¾. The next level of potential support lies near 393. Initial overhead resistance may enter the market between 420 and 430.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1260 – 1290 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher but faded significantly from their highs earlier this morning, which saw prices in the August contract up as much as 16 cents. Bull spreading between August and November soybeans continued today with the spread widening. Soybean meal was bull spread as well with the front month higher but deferred lower, and soybean oil was higher.

  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed no changes to the good to excellent ratings that remained at 67%. Trade was expecting a slight 1-point decline. 20% of the crop is blooming, which is on par with a year ago and compares to 8% last week. 3% of the crop is setting pods which is also on par with last year’s pace.

  • Domestic crush demand has been very firm and has been a supportive factor with export demand so slow. 192 mb of soybeans were crushed in May which is higher than a year ago. Profitable crush margins are supporting this demand and are also contributing to the bull spreading as producers buy cash soybeans.

  • Soybean oil was higher for the fifth consecutive day and was a large source of support for soybeans throughout the day. Today, the USDA said that renewable biodiesel capacity was up 4.1 billion pounds in April compared to a year ago at that time. In addition, India may be placing higher tariffs on Chinese goods which could cause trade conflicts that could move China to buy soybean oil from the US instead.

Above: Support in the area of 1130 – 1125 appears to be holding. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1160 – 1165 with further resistance up towards 1185 – 1200. Otherwise, if they retreat further, support may be found near 1045.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite higher closes for corn and soybeans, wheat failed to follow suit. The pressure from winter wheat harvest, a lower close for Paris milling wheat futures, and potential profit-taking after yesterday’s rally may be contributing factors. However, Chicago and Kansas City September contracts managed to hold the 10-day moving average as support today after rallying above it yesterday.

  • Additional pressure may have come from yesterday’s Crop Progress report, which showed winter wheat harvest at 54% complete, compared to the 39% average and 33% a year ago. This harvest pressure could limit any upside rallies for now. Furthermore, spring wheat conditions improved by 1% to 72% good to excellent, with only 4% of the crop rated poor to very poor.

  • According to Argus, Ukraine’s 24/25 wheat crop production is estimated at 20.3 mmt, an increase from their previous estimate but still 2.2 mmt below last year’s level. The year-on-year decline is attributed to lower yields and harvested acreage.

  • The EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit (MARS) estimates that Russia’s 24/25 wheat production may be below average, forecasting a crop of 82.5 mmt, about 5% under the average and down from 93.6 mmt in 2023. Frost damage in May and drought in June are cited as reasons for the yield decline.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance could be found near 620 with heavier resistance up towards 650 – 660. If the 576 area doesn’t hold, they may find further support between 560 – 550.

Above: Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Grain Market Insider is continuing to monitor the markets and may begin considering the first sales targets after July 8.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support around 600, and considering the oversold conditions of the market, a rally back towards the 662 – 686 resistance area may be possible. Otherwise, a market close below 596 support could suggest a further decline towards 542.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-1 End of Day: Soybeans and Wheat Rebound from Friday’s Weakness

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Thursday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Weak corn export inspection numbers and the negativity from Friday’s report initially weighed on the corn market, which rebounded late in the session with support from the higher wheat and soybean markets, closing near unchanged and fractionally mixed.

  • Following choppy two-sided trade, soybeans settled the day in the upper end of the trading range led by the August contract. Additional support came from sharply higher soybean oil, while meal closed mixed.

  • Soybean oil was the strong leg of the soybean complex with the August contract gaining 4.45% on the day. Support came from strong usage numbers for renewable diesel production, a near-record fund short, and higher energy prices.

  • The wheat complex posted double-digit gains across all three classes, supported by solid export inspections, oversold conditions, and strong Matif wheat. Additionally, the winter wheat harvest is likely past the 50% mark, potentially easing some harvest pressure.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks for July, courtesy of NOAA and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, we have several targets in place to provide both upside and downside coverage. While targeting 490 – 510 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are also targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations. We will be looking to make another sales recommendation by July 8 if our upside objectives aren’t met by then.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market fought off early session lows, supported by the strength in wheat and soybean markets. Corn futures finished the day mixed with light selling pressure in the front end of the market.          

  • The corn market is still processing the bearish Crop Acreage and Grain Stocks report from Friday. The large jump in supply will be a major limiting force over top in the weeks ahead. 

  • The USDA will release the next round of crop ratings on Monday afternoon. The corn crop is expected to slip to 68% Good/Excellent, down 1% from last week. 

  • The USDA’s weekly export inspections report was disappointing on Monday. Last week US exporters shipped 820,000 mt (33.4 mb) of corn, down from 1.1 mmt last week. The past couple weeks, corn export sales have shed some of their strength and export inspection were lighter this week. Total inspections in 23/24 are now at 1.672 bb, up 28% from last year.

  • Weather forecasts will remain a major focus for the markets going into the key July weather time frame. While the forecast remains on the warm side, precipitation remains active into the middle of the month. Currently, weather is non-threatening overall to crop production.

Above: Bearish stocks and acreage numbers pushed prices through the February low of 408 ¾. The next level of potential support lies near 393. Initial overhead resistance may enter the market between 420 and 430.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 86,204 contracts between June 19 – 25, bringing their total position to a net short 277,666 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1260 – 1290 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher and were bull spread with the August contract, which is the new front month, up 12 ½ cents while the November contract closed only 7 cents higher. The spreading indicates the demand for cash soybeans but anticipation of a large crop coming in November. Soybean meal was mixed with the front months higher and deferred months lower, and soybean oil was higher.

  • Friday’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report was mostly friendly for soybeans. The USDA estimated US soybean planted acres at 86.1 million, which is below the March estimate of 86.51 million and compares to 83.60 million last year. The decrease in acres can be attributed to the increase in corn acres reported last week.

  • Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress report, and estimates range from 63 to 68% for the good/excellent rating which was 67% last week. The average trade guess is 66%, but it could come in higher given the improved weather conditions last week in the central and eastern Corn Belt.

  • According to Friday’s CFTC report, funds were heavy sellers across the ag complex and sold 23,693 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 129,663 contracts. Short sellers likely bought back a portion of their position today following Friday’s report.

Above: Support in the area of 1130 – 1125 appears to be holding. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1160 – 1165 with further resistance up towards 1185 – 1200. Otherwise, if they retreat further, support may be found near 1045.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 23,693contracts between June 19 – 25, bringing their total position to a net short 129,663 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with double-digit gains across all three US futures classes. With the winter wheat harvest likely past the halfway mark, some harvest pressure on the market may start to ease. Paris milling wheat futures also had a strong day, with the front-month September contract gaining 5.50 euros and closing back above the 200-day moving average, indicating signs of recovery. Additionally, the fact that US wheat was technically oversold provided further support to the market today.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections at 11.4 mb brought 24/25 total inspections to 50 mb. This is up 24% from a year ago and above the USDA’s estimated pace so far. Wheat exports for 24/25 are projected to be 800 mb.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values finished last week at $226 per mt, down from $231 the previous week. These declining values may limit any potential rallies in the US market. Additionally, SovEcon reported that Russia exported 790,000 mt of grain last week, with 680,000 mt being wheat.

  • According to crop agency Emater, the state of Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil is expected to harvest 4.07 mmt of wheat this season, which is about 55% higher than the previous season. This is despite estimates that planted area at, 1.3 million hectares, will be down about 13% from the year prior. An anticipated major jump in wheat yields, by a whopping 77%, is expected to offset the smaller acreage.

  • According to their supply ministry, Egypt is expected to increase purchases of wheat from farmers to 3.6 mmt by mid-July. As it currently stands, Egypt has bought 3.55 mmt since the season began in April. The ministry also announced that the local wheat buying season will end in mid-July, stating that their reserves are sufficient for approximately six and a half months.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 17,755 contracts between June 19 – 25, bringing their total position to a net short 70,487 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance could be found near 620 with heavier resistance up towards 650 – 660. If the 576 area doesn’t hold, they may find further support between 560 – 550.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Jun 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,028 contracts between June 19 – 25, bringing their total position to a net short 37,072 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat.) At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support around 600, and considering the oversold conditions of the market, a rally back towards the 662 – 686 resistance area may be possible. Otherwise, a market close below 596 support could suggest a further decline towards 542.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 10,653 contracts between June 19 – 25, bringing their total position to a net short 13,918 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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6-28 End of Day: Bearish Stocks and Acreage Data Sends Corn Tumbling

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market settled with double digit losses through the July ’25 contract after it tumbled to fresh multi-year lows as the USDA reported June 1 corn stocks and planted acres well above analyst expectations.

  • The soybean market closed mixed, in line with the results of today’s stocks and acreage reports. As higher than expected June 1 stocks weighed on the front months, while lower than expected planted acres supported the deferred contracts.

  • The wheat complex closed mostly lower across all three classes, as carryover weakness from sharply lower corn weighed on prices. June 1 stocks, as reported by the USDA came in higher than expected, while planted acres for all wheat came in towards the low end of expectations.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the updated US 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, we have several targets in place to provide both upside and downside coverage. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are also targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations. We will be looking to make another sales recommendation by July 8 if our upside objectives aren’t met by then.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Bearish USDA reports for planted acres and grain stocks broke the corn market to new lows for the move. For the week, September corn lost 33 cents and December corn fell 32 ½. Today was the lowest close for December corn since July 2021.

  • On the USDA Planted Acreage report, the USDA survey projected 91.475 million acres, up 1.6% from the March estimate and well above expectations at 90.350 million acres. The USDA stated that 3.36 million acres still needed planting at the time of data collection. Those missing acres will be determined in future reports (Aug/Sept) as planted acres, unharvested acres, or possible prevent plant acres.

  • For Quarterly Grain Stocks, the USDA totaled 4.997 billion bushels of corn at the end of the second quarter. This was up 22% from June 1 last year, an increase of 890 mb. Regarding the stocks, 3.03 billion bushels remain in on-farm storage, up 37% from last year. The large on-farm storage could limit rally potential in the corn market as those bushels move.

  • With the report in the rear view, the focus will shift back to the weather. Forecasts remain friendly for crop growth with temperatures staying above normal, but also precipitation, into early July. These conditions are likely to limit any potential corn market rallies in the near term.

Above: Bearish stocks and acreage numbers pushed prices through the February low of 408 ¾. The next level of potential support lies near 393. Initial overhead resistance may enter the market between 420 and 430.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1300 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day bear spread with losses in the front months but a higher close in November futures despite a bullish acreage report that saw expected planted acreage down from trade estimates, but a slightly negative stocks report. Soybeans traded higher at midday but following the reports, faded into the close. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was slightly higher.

  • Today’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report was mostly friendly for soybeans. The USDA estimated US soybean planted acres at 86.1 million which is below the March estimate of 86.51 million and compares to 83.60 million last year. The decrease in acres can be attributed to the increase in corn acres reported today.

  • While the decrease in planted acreage was friendly, the Quarterly Stocks portion of the report was not. Soybeans stored in all positions as of June 1 totaled 970 million bushels which was above expectations and up 22% from the previous year. On-farm stocks totaled 466 million bushels which is up 44% from a year ago.

  • Today was First Notice Day for July grains, so the August contract will be taking over as the new front month. For the week, August soybeans lost 13 ½ cents to 1133 ½, August soybean meal lost $2.70 to $346.00, and August soybean oil lost 0.13 cents to 44.07 cents. Overall, pressure has come from a relatively good weather forecast and expectations of a large soybean crop.

Above: Support in the area of 1130 – 1125 appears to be holding. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1160 – 1165 with further resistance up towards 1185 – 1200. Otherwise, if they retreat further, support may be found near 1045.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat mostly closed lower across all three US categories. The main feature today was the USDA’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports. While the stocks number was bearish, the acreage figure was somewhat positive. This suggests that wheat might have been following corn lower rather than reacting solely to its own report results. With winter wheat harvest likely well over 50% done at this point, wheat has the potential for a post-harvest rally in the not-too-distant future.

  • The USDA pegged June 1 wheat stocks at 702 mb, which was above the average trade guess of 682 mb, and also exceeded the high end of pre-report estimates at 699 mb. For reference June 1 wheat stocks of 2023 were 570 mb, meaning today’s estimate was 23% higher than a year ago.

  • All wheat planted acreage came in at 47.2 million acres, which was on the lower end of estimates, and compared to an average pre-report guess of 47.58 million. Today’s estimate was also below the March projection of 47.5 million and was a 5% drop from last year’s 49.58 million. Of today’s total, 33.8 million acres are expected to be winter wheat, with 11.3 million acres dedicated to spring wheat.

  • Aside from today’s report there was not much fresh news in the wheat market. However, one item worth noting is that India’s government has announced limited import quotas of ag goods, in an effort to reduce food inflation. While these measures do not specifically address wheat, there is still talk that India may be a net importer this year to rebuild reserves.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance could be found near 620 with heavier resistance up towards 650 – 660. If the 576 area doesn’t hold, they may find further support between 560 – 550.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat.) At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support around 600, and considering the oversold conditions of the market, a rally back towards the 662 – 686 resistance area may be possible. Otherwise, a market close below 596 support could suggest a further decline towards 542.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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6-27 End of Day: Wheat Settles Strong While Corn and Soybeans Close Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Strength in neighboring wheat was unable to rally the corn market, which saw continued selling pressure for the sixth consecutive day across the market except for the December ’25 contract. A heavy supply picture and looming First Notice Day on Friday contributed to the weakness.

  • Despite a flash sale of 24/25 soybeans to unknown destinations (China?), poor export sales weighed heavily on the bean market, which closed near the day’s lows after trading higher in the overnight session.

  • Both soybean meal and oil closed slightly mixed and near unchanged. Soybean oil saw net cancellations in this morning’s export sales report, while meal sales came in at the top end of expectations.

  • Oversold conditions, higher Matif wheat, and reduced wheat acreage in Canada all lent support to the wheat complex which closed with double digit gains across all three classes.  

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the updated US Drought Monitor and 4-week classification changes, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since mid-June the front month corn market has been trending lower on solid crop ratings and a non-threatening weather forecast. While solid demand has been a prominent supportive feature of the market, an old crop carryout near 2.0 billion bushels and the prospect of an even higher carryout number for new crop, has kept upside rallies in check. The 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy December ’24 corn 470 and 510 calls in equal quantities. The Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls are about the least expensive they’ve been since each strike began trading back in 2022. Last year, Grain Market Insider also recommended buying call options ahead of the typically volatile, growing season months. Those call options proved to be invaluable as they allowed us to recommend selling into the sharp weather driven rally of June 2023, without having to worry about if the market continued to rally, like in 2012. That same call buying strategy is one that Grain Market Insider is looking to leverage now for your 2024 crop to give you the confidence to make sales into any sharp rallies.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Despite a strong move higher in the wheat market, corn futures saw further selling pressure as the influence of First Notice Day and the pricing of basis contracts limited the corn market.

  • Friday is First Notice Day for July corn. With that deadline, long futures positions must be exited or risk delivery. While in this window, producers with basis contracts for corn need to choose to price the product or roll to a different month.

  • Weekly corn exports sales were within expectations in the USDA’s weekly export sales report. Last week, US exporters sold 21.3 mb (542,000 mt) of old crop corn, and 5.5 mb (139,300 mt) of new crop, all within market expectations. Total corn sales commitments now total 2.101 bb for 23/24, up 38% from last year.

  • The USDA will release the Quarterly Grain Stocks and Planted Acres report on Friday, June 28. Expectations are for corn stocks to be 4.873 billion bushels, up nearly 770 mb over last year, and planted acres to increase nearly 300,000 acres to 90.35 million acres. The heavy supply picture and possible increase in acres are pressuring the market.

Above: The corn market appears to be on track to test the 427 – 420 support area. If this area holds and prices turn higher, they could target 461, with potential resistance near 450 and the 50-day moving average. Should prices slide further, they may find support around the February low of 408 ¾.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since trading toward the 200-day moving average and peaking near 1260, front month soybeans have been on the decline and appear on track to test the February low around 1128. Though domestic crush demand has been good, export demand has lagged, and like corn, the prospect of a higher 24/25 carryout looms, adding overhead resistance to prices. With much of the growing season in front of the market, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1300 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for a third consecutive day as selling pressure continues on the prospect of good weather for the central Corn Belt and the anticipation of a large crop. Tomorrow is also First Notice Day for July futures which may have had a negative impact on futures. Both soybean meal and oil were mixed with the front months higher and deferred contracts lower.

  • Today’s export sales report showed an increase of soybean export sales by 10.4 mb in 23/24 and 3.7 mb for 24/25. This was on the lower end of trade expectations. Last week’s export shipments of 14.4 mb were above the 13.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to Egypt, Mexico, and the Netherlands.

  • Tomorrow, the USDA will release its Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acres reports. Analysts estimate that the number of soybean planted acres will come in at 86.753 million, which would be slightly higher than the planting intentions numbers of 86.510 million reported in March. Quarterly soybean stocks as of June 1 are estimated to come in at 0.962 billion bushels which would be higher than last year.

  • While export demand has been sluggish overall, this morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. If this was China making the purchase, it would be their first purchase of new crop US soybeans.

Above: The soybean market appears to have found support around 1140. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area. Otherwise, they remain at risk of testing the 1130 – 1125 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was finally able to stop the bleeding, ending with double digit gains across all three classes. Higher Matif wheat futures lent support, as did the vastly oversold conditions of the market from a technical perspective. The US Dollar also took a bit of a breather, falling back below 106 and easing some of the pressure on wheat.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 24.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 11.9 mb fell below the 15.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 800 mb. Sales commitments, now at 224 mb for 24/25, are 45% higher than a year ago.

  • Pre-report estimates for tomorrow’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report offer a slight bearish bias. Stocks as of June 1 are anticipated to come in at 682 mb, well above last year’s 570 mb figure. Additionally, all wheat acreage at 47.58 million is expected to see a slight bump from the March estimate of 47.50 million. For reference, this is still below last year’s 49.58 million acres planted.

  • This morning’s data from Stats Canada was supportive and may have helped contribute to the rally. All wheat planted acreage in 2024 was down 1.1% to 26.6 million acres. This falls below the average pre-report estimate of 27.2 million, and the March estimate of 27.0 million. Spring wheat acreage in particular was down 2.8% to 18.9 million acres.

  • According to the USDA as of June 25, about 21% of US winter wheat areas are experiencing drought conditions, up from only 17% the week prior. Additionally, Spring wheat also saw a slight increase in drought area, from 3% to 5% for the same time period.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance could be found near 620 with heavier resistance up towards 650 – 660. If the 476 area doesn’t hold, they may find further support between 570 – 550.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat.) At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support around 600, and considering the oversold conditions of the market, a rally back towards the 662 – 686 resistance area may be possible. Otherwise, a market close below 596 support could suggest a further decline towards 542.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.