|

7-25 End of Day: Corn and Beans Hold Their Gains, as Wheat Breaks

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market closed higher for the fourth consecutive day with support from new crop sales that came in at the top of expectations and carry over strength from neighboring soybeans, as traders continue to cover short positions.

  • While soybean export sales fell within expectations, a flash sale for new crop soybeans to unknown destinations and soybean meal sales that exceeded expectations, helped propel new crop soybeans to double-digit gains. Soybean meal settled sharply higher across the board, while soybean oil closed mixed.

  • The wheat complex experienced a down day across all three futures markets, pressured lower by continued losses in Matif wheat, and a second day of exceptional yield reports from the Spring Wheat Quality Council’s tour.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6-10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the updated Drought Monitor courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and the NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  Considering the current growing season often provides some of the best pricing opportunities for next year’s crop and given that the current heavy supply/demand picture could carry over and create upside resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, which allows the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • After trading on both sides of unchanged in the overnight session, the corn market gained some footing with solid new crop export sales and carry over support from the soybean market to close in the green for the fourth day in a row.

  • This week’s export sales for corn showed an increase of 13.0 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 29.3 mb for 24/25. While old crop sales were down 24% on the week and at the low end of trade expectations, new crop sales came in at the top end of expectations and lent support to the deferred contracts.

  • Last week’s export shipments of 47.6 mb exceeded the 42.2 million bushels needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates. The primary destinations were Mexico, South Korea, and Japan.

  • LSEG Ag Research updated its estimate of Brazil’s 23/24 total corn production as the safrinha corn harvest begins to wrap up, raising it 1% to 120.1 mmt. This compares to CONAB at 115.9 mmt and the USDA’s latest estimate of 122 mmt.

  • As we enter the end of July, weather forecasts are turning less friendly for crop development for the first part of August as temperatures look to trend well above average, with near term above normal moisture in the ECB turning drier, along with below normal moisture in the WCB. While most of the corn crop is in overall good condition, weather will still play a key role in finishing the crop into harvest.

Above: The corn market continues to consolidate as it corrects from being oversold. If prices break out above the 404 – 415 resistance area, they could run toward 425 – 430. To the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Any remaining old crop 2023 soybeans should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 soybeans – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the third time this week with November futures now up 43 ½ cents since Monday. Today’s Export Sales report was not particularly friendly, but a flash sale was reported this morning to unknown destinations. Soybean meal led the complex higher today with the September contract up 2.48%. Soybean oil was mixed with the front months lower and deferred months higher.

  • Today’s export sales report saw an increase of 3.3 mb of soybean export sales in 23/24 and an increase of 30.5 mb for 24/25. This was within the range of estimates, but sales for 23/24 were down 61% from the previous week and 63% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments of 13.5 mb were below the 15.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimate, and primary destinations were to the Netherlands, Mexico, and Indonesia.

  • While soybean sales were on the softer side this week, sales of soybean meal were very strong which explains today’s big gains in meal futures. 258,100 mt of old crop meal and 520,900 mt of new crop meal were sold last week with the Philippines showing up as the largest buyer of old crop while the new crop purchases were made by unknown buyers.

  • The weather has been beneficial up until this point, but forecasts are turning dry and very hot heading into August which will be crucial for pod fill. Little impact is expected this week, but the GFS model shows temperatures potentially reaching as high as 113 degrees in some parts of the Midwest.

Above: September soybeans appear to have found initial support just below the market around 1054. Should this area hold, and prices close above 1082 ¼, they could run toward 1130 – 1170 congestion area, though they may encounter resistance near 1100. A break below 1054 could put the market at risk of retreating toward the July low of 1030 ¼, where further support may be found.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across all three categories, led by Chicago futures. Continued losses in Paris milling wheat futures provided no support, and US wheat struggled to find footing despite higher corn and soybean prices.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 11.4 mb in wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 10 mb fell below the 16.0 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 825 mb. Sales commitments so far are at 295 mb for 24/25 which is up 48% year on year.

  • Day two of the Spring Wheat Quality Council’s wheat tour again found promising conditions. In north central North Dakota, they found a yield potential of 53.7 bpa, compared with 45.7 bpa last year. However, it was noted that some head blight was present which could affect final yields.

  • According to the USDA, drought is increasing in spring wheat areas. As of July 23, 15% of US spring wheat crop acres were experiencing drought, compared to 12% the week prior. The heat and dryness in parts of Canada and the US northern Plains could affect final spring wheat yields.

  • As reported by the International Grains Council, FOB export values increased in the US and Europe but fell in Russia to $219 per mt, which keeps Russia the export leader for now. It is worth noting that US SRW wheat has become more competitive and is at a $21 per mt discount when compared with French FOB offers.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 620 – 640 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The consolidation of the Chicago wheat market shows support below the market around just above the March 523 ½ low. Should the market continue higher, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600. While a close below 523 ½ could suggest a lower trend towards 500 psychological support, with further support in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After finding support just below 550, KC wheat prices could continue higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. A reversal lower, and a break below 545 could find further support in the 530 area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since our last sales recommendation for the 2025 spring wheat crop, September ’25 Minneapolis wheat has rallied about 30 cents off its recent low and reached our upside target as it approaches the congestion and resistance area from early July. Considering this time of year can provide some of the best opportunities to get early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally to sell another portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After encountering resistance near 630, the market reversed lower and could be on track toward the July low near 575, where it should find support. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

|

7-24 End of Day: Markets Hit Overhead Resistance and Close Off Their Highs

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite a strong start to the session and solid ethanol production numbers, the corn market settled mid-range and marginally higher after hitting overhead resistance in the area of the September and December 20-day moving averages for the second day in a row.

  • After trading higher early on, sellers came out in force in the soybean market after it hit resistance at the 20-day moving average for the second consecutive day. Sharply lower soybean oil, driven by lower palm oil, weighed heavily on soybeans, while soybean meal managed to close with marginal gains.

  • The wheat complex closed the day mixed with Chicago and KC in the green, while Minneapolis settled in the red. While lower outside markets limited wheat’s rally potential, Minneapolis contracts were likely pressed lower on the exceptional yield potential found on the first day of the spring wheat tour.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  Considering the current growing season often provides some of the best pricing opportunities for next year’s crop and given that the current heavy supply/demand picture could carry over and create upside resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, which allows the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market experienced follow through buying early in the session as traders sought to add weather premium on the warmer and drier extended forecast, but prices once again encountered overhead resistance around the 20-day moving average and sold off into the close. Selling pressure in neighboring soybeans also likely contributed to the soft tone.

  • Weekly ethanol production dropped to 1.095 million barrels per day last week, down from 1.106 mil. barrels per day the week prior but came in above expectations and the third highest for this marketing year. 109.7 million bushels of corn were used in last week’s production, which was above the pace needed to reach the USDA’s projections.

  • With Brazil’s second corn crop nearly harvested, their corn exports have begun to ramp up. According to Anec, the country’s corn exports for the month of July are expected to reach 4.56 mmt, a slight increase from last week’s projection of 4.51 mmt. That said, US export values out of the Gulf remain between $6 and $8 per mt below Brazil offers, which should help US corn sales.

  • Due to the hot and dry conditions in the Black Sea region, SovEcon lowered their forecast for Russia’s corn production 8% to 13.4 mmt from 14.6 mmt in June. On a related note, it’s been reported that Ukraine’s 24/25 grain exports through July 24th are up 67% from last year to 2.78 mmt, 1.39 mmt of which is corn.

  • Weather forecasts going into the end of July are turning less friendly for crop development in the first part of August as temperatures could trend well above average, with above normal moisture in the ECB to below normal moisture in the WCB. While most of the corn crop is in good condition, in some areas, weather will still play a key role in finishing the crop into harvest.

Above: The corn market continues to consolidate as it corrects from being oversold. If prices break out above the 404 – 415 resistance area, they could run toward 425 – 430. To the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • After higher closes on Monday and Tuesday, soybeans ended the day lower. Despite higher trade this morning, futures traded lower into the end of the day after being rebuffed at their 20-day moving average, much like yesterday. Soybean meal ended the day slightly higher, while soybean oil was pulled down by palm oil.

  • The weather has been very beneficial up until this point, but forecasts are turning dry and very hot heading into August which will be crucial for pod fill. Little impact is expected this week, but the GFS model shows temperatures potentially reaching as high as 113 degrees in some parts of the Midwest.

  • Despite slow US soybean exports this year, with Brazil capturing 87% of China’s soybean imports, US soybeans are becoming more competitive. Expectations are rising that China will increase its purchases of US soybeans.

  • Last Friday’s CFTC report revealed that funds held a record net short position in soybeans. However, this has likely changed due to this week’s rally, as funds probably covered some of that short position with dry weather in the forecast.

Above: The large gap on the continuous chart represents the roll from the August soybean contract to the September, where the 50-cent premium in the August contract relative to the September contract is no longer represented. That said, support for the September contract on a break below 1030 may come in near the 1000 psychological level with further support around 985. Overhead, a turnaround toward higher prices may encounter resistance between 1065 – 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a two-sided trade, Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures closed with small gains, while Minneapolis futures posted modest losses. The strength of the grain rally that started this week is fading, likely due to it being primarily a technical bounce. Additionally, Matif wheat’s inability to hold onto gains today added weakness to the US market.

  • Outside markets may be influencing commodity prices. At the time of writing, the Dow is down over 400 points, the NASDAQ down over 650 points, and the S&P 500 down over 100 points. This broad-based selloff could be tied to uncertainty surrounding the US economy, especially given the recent news that President Biden has stepped out of the race.

  • The first day of the US spring wheat crop tour found a yield in North Dakota of 52.5 bpa; this is higher than last year’s 48.1 bpa and the average of 42.2 bpa. In fact, this is the highest first day yield found since the tour began in 1994, and certainly added pressure on Minneapolis futures today.

  • European Union soft wheat exports, according to the European Commission, have fallen 35% year over year. Since the season began on July 1, exports totaled 1.44 mmt as of July 21, versus 2.21 mmt at the same time last year. Leading importers of this wheat include Nigeria, Egypt, and Morocco.

  • According to their agriculture ministry, the export duty on Russian wheat has been reduced by 13.5% to 1,540.4 rubles per mt as of July 24. This is down from 1,780.5 Rubles previously. For corn and barley, the duties remain at zero.

  • Chinese officials said on Wednesday that their nation had the largest grain production increase this summer in nine years. A plentiful wheat harvest is cited as the driver of the increase. Reportedly, 23 million hectares of wheat were harvested, and yields were said to be up by 2.6% year over year. 

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 620 – 640 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The consolidation of the Chicago wheat market shows support below the market around just above the March 523 ½ low. Should the market continue higher, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600. While a close below 523 ½ could suggest a lower trend towards 500 psychological support, with further support in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After finding support just below 550, KC wheat prices could continue higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. A reversal lower, and a break below 545 could find further support in the 530 area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since our last sales recommendation for the 2025 spring wheat crop, September ’25 Minneapolis wheat has rallied about 30 cents off its recent low and reached our upside target as it approaches the congestion and resistance area from early July. Considering this time of year can provide some of the best opportunities to get early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally to sell another portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish key reversal posted on July 17 indicates that support lies just below the market around 575, and prices could run toward the July highs near 636. If the market turns and closes below 575, prices could drift lower toward the 550 – 540 support area.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

|

7-23 End of Day: Corn and Beans Close Firm; Wheat Reverses to Close Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Follow through strength and short covering pushed the corn market to 420 resistance in the December contract before sliding off session highs from carryover weakness from the wheat markets.

  • While soybeans carried positive momentum from Monday’s trade and closed higher for the second day in a row, they closed off their highs as upward resistance was met near the 20-day moving average in the leading contracts. Bear spreading in soybean oil, and lower trade in meal also limited the rally potential for the soybean market.

  • The wheat complex closed lower across all three futures markets, as lower Matif wheat futures and weakening Russian export prices continue to limit upside potential. Increased production estimates for Russian and Australian wheat crops also potentially contributed to the day’s negative performance.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  Considering the current growing season often provides some of the best pricing opportunities for next year’s crop and given that the current heavy supply/demand picture could carry over and create upside resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, which allows the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw some follow-through buying strength and short covering from yesterday. Futures rallied higher for most of the session, but resistance at 420 on the December chart held, and late softness in the wheat market allowed corn futures to slide off session highs. The direction of trade on Wednesday may be key for the end of the week.

  • This morning the USDA announced a flash sale of corn totaling 200,000 mt (7.9 mb) for the 24/25 marketing year. This is the second consecutive day with a posted flash sale. On Monday, Mexico bought 5.2 mb of new crop corn.

  • On Monday afternoon’s Crop Conditions report, the USDA reported that the corn crop’s condition was 67% good to excellent, down 1% from last week and below market expectations. Within the numbers, the key corn producing states of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana saw crop ratings improve by 1-2% over last week. The overall strong crop rating keeps thoughts of an above average trendline yield in focus for this fall.

  • Weather forecasts going into the end of July are turning less friendly for crop development in the first part of August as temperatures trend warmer than average, with normal to below normal moisture. While most of the corn crop is in good condition, in some areas, weather will still play a key role in finishing the crop into harvest.

Above: The corn market continues to consolidate as it corrects from being oversold. If prices break out above the 404 – 415 resistance area, they could run toward 425 – 430. To the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher for the second consecutive day as buying momentum continued, but prices did retreat from midday highs as they were met by resistance at the 20-day moving average. After last week’s selloff, this week’s higher prices may also be encouraging some farmer selling. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was bear spread with front months ending lower and deferred contracts higher.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the good to excellent rating for soybeans staying stable at 68%, but as in corn, there were improvements in the heart of the Corn Belt while conditions slipped on the fringes. 29% of the soybean crop is setting pods which compares to 18% last week and 65% is blooming which compares to 51% last week.

  • The 6–10-day forecast shows temperatures above normal while precipitation looks to be above average as well for the central and eastern Corn Belt. The extended forecast is drier for the majority of the Corn Belt which should be supportive going into pod fill.

  • Yesterday’s Export Inspections report showed 12.0 mb of soybeans inspected as of July 18 which brought total inspections for 23/24 to 1.556 bb which was within trade expectations but is down 16% from the previous year. Cheaper prices may be helping US soybeans be more competitive globally.

Above: The large gap on the continuous chart represents the roll from the August soybean contract to the September, where the 50-cent premium in the August contract relative to the September contract is no longer represented. That said, support for the September contract on a break below 1030 may come in near the 1000 psychological level with further support around 985. Overhead, a turnaround toward higher prices may encounter resistance between 1065 – 1075.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across the board after a positive start to the session, and a lower close for Matif wheat provided no support. The recent rally over the past couple of sessions may have been primarily technical in nature, indicating that fundamentals might not support significant upward price movement.

  • According to the USDA, winter wheat is 76% harvested as of July 21, up from 71% a week ago. This compares with 65% last year and 72% on average. The spring wheat crop was rated 77% good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week, but still well above the 49% rating from a year ago. Additionally, 89% of spring wheat is headed compared to 92% last year and 90% average.

  • SovEcon this morning increased their estimate of Russia’s grain production by 3 mmt to 130.5 mmt, but wheat production was only increased 0.1 mmt to 84.3 mmt, just above the USDA’s 83 mmt figure. Russia also continues to be dominant on wheat exports, with their latest FOB values said to be around $218 to $200 per mt.

  • Agriculture and Agri-Foods Canada projected Canadian 24/25 all wheat production at 35.43 mmt, which compares with 31.95 mmt the year prior. The USDA currently estimates the Canadian crop at 35 mmt. However, the warmer and drier conditions affecting wheat growing regions of Canada may warrant reductions to those estimates down the road.

  • Following a couple of weeks of good rainfall, western Australia may see higher grain production. According to the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia, wheat, barley, and canola crops could be boosted by as much as 10%, reaching 18 mmt if current weather patterns continue. This new estimate compares with the previous estimate of 16.3 mmt. Wheat, in particular, is expected to see a 12.3% increase from the previous estimate, rising to 10.5 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 620 – 640 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The consolidation of the Chicago wheat market shows support below the market around just above the March 523 ½ low. Should the market continue higher, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600. While a close below 523 ½ could suggest a lower trend towards 500 psychological support, with further support in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After finding support just below 550, KC wheat prices could continue higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. A reversal lower, and a break below 545 could find further support in the 530 area.

Above: Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since our last sales recommendation for the 2025 spring wheat crop, September ’25 Minneapolis wheat has rallied about 30 cents off its recent low and reached our upside target as it approaches the congestion and resistance area from early July. Considering this time of year can provide some of the best opportunities to get early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally to sell another portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish key reversal posted on July 17 indicates that support lies just below the market around 575, and given that the market is oversold, prices could run toward the July highs near 636. Below 575, support should remain in the 550 – 540 area.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

|

7-22 End of Day: Grain Markets Start the Week Off Strong

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carry over strength from neighboring soybeans triggered a round of short covering to begin the week following Friday’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report that showed managed funds still hold a near record net short position.

  • New crop contracts led soybeans higher with support from sharply higher soybean meal and oil. A warmer and drier near-term forecast likely triggered short covering from managed funds, which according to Friday’s COT report, hold a record net short soybean position.

  • Following a day of two sided trade, all three wheat classes settled in the green. Support came from potential crop concerns in the dry areas of Canada and the US northern Plains, and quality concerns for the French and German wheat crop.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Considering we are at the time of year to get early sales made for next year’s crop, we recently issued our first sales recommendation for the 2025 corn crop. Given that the growing season has potential for high volatility and can provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year, we will also be watching the calendar along with price action. If our current Plan A upside objective in the 490 – 510 range isn’t met by our Plan B sales deadline of July 23, we will likely make another sales recommendation at that time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong buying entered the corn market to start the week as spill over strength from the soybean market triggered a short covering rally in an oversold market. Despite the strength, December corn remains in the sideways range of 405 – 415 that it has been trading in since July 8.

  • On Friday’s Commitment of Traders report, managed hedge funds slightly reduced their record net short position in corn. Last week funds were net buyers of 10,587 corn contracts, but still hold a sizeable net short position of 343,396 contracts.

  • The USDA will release the next round of crop ratings on Monday afternoon. Expectations are for corn ratings to remain steady to slightly higher over last week’s numbers. Last week, corn was rated 65% good/excellent, which was trending 11% higher than last year.

  • The key second crop (safrinha) corn harvest in Brazil is progressing quickly. Brazil Ag analyst, AgRural, stated that 83% of the second crop corn was harvested, up from 74% last week. Last year, only 47% of the crop was harvested in this time window. Brazil’s second crop corn is approximately 75% of their  corn production

  • Weather forecasts going into the end of July are turning less friendly for crop development going into the first part of August as temperatures are trending warmer than average, and moisture in normal to below normal. While most of the corn crop is in good condition, weather will still play a key role in finishing the crop into harvest.

Above: The corn market continues to consolidate as it corrects from being oversold. If prices break out above the 404 – 415 resistance area, they could run toward 425 – 430. To the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 16. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 10,587 contracts between July 9 – 16, bringing their total position to a net short 343,396 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher, quickly erasing last week’s losses. While funds hold a record net short position in soybeans, the forecasts predicting short-term dry weather likely triggered today’s short covering rally. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher as well.

  • Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress report and expectations are that good to excellent ratings will increase for soybeans by 1% from last week. The upcoming hot and dry weather could pose a challenge later this week, but conditions have been relatively good so far this season.

  • Both soybean meal and oil closed higher today with meal leading the way up, with the strong close in both products adding to already impressive crush margins. These margins have improved significantly which has spurred domestic demand as processors scoop up cheap cash soybeans. This has also propped up nearby soybean prices relative to new crop months.

  • According to Friday’s CFTC report, funds added to their short position in soybeans as of July 16. They sold 13,145 contracts, increasing their net short position to a record 185,750 contracts.

Above: The large gap on the continuous chart represents the roll from the August soybean contract to the September, where the 50-cent premium in the August contract relative to the September contract is no longer represented. That said, support for the September contract on a break below 1030 may come in near the 1000 psychological level with further support around 985. Overhead, a turnaround toward higher prices may encounter resistance between 1065 – 1075.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 16. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 13,145 contracts between July 9 – 16, bringing their total position to a net short 185,750 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a two-sided trade, all three US wheat classes closed higher, led by Minneapolis futures; this was likely a result of spring wheat development concerns from dryness in parts of Canada and the US northern Plains. Corn and soybeans were sharply higher today as well, offering support to wheat. However, this may be more of a technical bounce from oversold conditions, wherein funds are covering some of their short positions. Additional support came from continued talk of quality concerns for the French and German wheat crops.

  • Friday’s CFTC report indicated that as of July 16, managed funds increased their short position in Chicago wheat to 75,886 contracts from 69,137 contracts the previous week. Additionally, for the same time period, they added to their short position in Kansas City wheat, going from 40,811 to 43,896 contracts. Their total short position in wheat, when you add in Minneapolis futures, is close to 145,000 contracts, their largest wheat short position in three months.

  • Weekly wheat inspections of 8.7 mb brought total 24/25 inspections to 95 mb. This is up 20% versus last year, and wheat inspections are running ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA’s 825 mb 24/25 export projection.  

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $219 per mt, unchanged from the previous week. Additionally, SovEcon said that Russia shipped 710,000 mt of grain last week, compared with 600,000 mt the week prior. Of that total, 660,000 mt was said to be wheat.

  • The Wheat Quality Council kicked off their hard red spring wheat tour today in Fargo, North Dakota. With the ND crop rated at 82% good to excellent as of July 15, they are expected to find good quality wheat. While the majority of the tour is within North Dakota, there will be some travel through northern South Dakota and western Minnesota.  

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of your July ‘25 620 Chicago Wheat puts at approximately 67 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Last month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts for approximately 34 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July Chicago wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 Chicago wheat has dropped over 100 cents, with the July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, and plenty of unknowns remain that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at a net neutral cost, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The consolidation of the Chicago wheat market shows support below the market around just above the March 523 ½ low. Should the market continue higher, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600. While a close below 523 ½ could suggest a lower trend towards 500 psychological support, with further support in the 490 – 470 area.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 16. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,749 contracts between July 9 – 16, bringing their total position to a net short 75,886 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After finding support just below 550, KC wheat prices could continue higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. A reversal lower, and a break below 545 could find further support in the 530 area.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 16. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,085 contracts between July 9 – 16, bringing their total position to a net short 43,896 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since rallying in late June, the market has retraced back toward its lows, and has broken the 644 support level. The breaking of 644 support suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved, and prices could trend lower. Considering this and that it is the time of year to begin getting early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider is implementing its Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling a portion of your 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish key reversal posted on July 17 indicates that support lies just below the market around 575, and given that the market is oversold, prices could run toward the July highs near 636. Below 575, support should remain in the 550 – 540 area.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 16. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,638 contracts between July 9 – 16, bringing their total position to a net short 25,361 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

|

7-19 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Close Out the Week in the Red

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures settled mixed as the market consolidated for the 9th consecutive session, and a heavy front end supply picture and soft export sales continue to limit rally potential.

  • Weakness in soybean meal and oil added downward pressure to the soybean market that had seen higher prices dominate in the overnight session. Old crop contracts continue to be supported by strong demand as buyers reach for needed supplies, while new crop contracts remain under pressure from a benign weather forecast and the potential for a large crop.

  • A sharp rally in Matif wheat, triggered by a drop in French wheat conditions, helped drive early gains in the wheat complex settled in the green, though well off its highs. Minneapolis contracts closed the strongest on crop concerns due to expected warm and dry conditions in the northern Plains and Canada.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, Drought Monitor, and the Seasonal Drought Outlook, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Considering we are at the time of year to get early sales made for next year’s crop, we recently issued our first sales recommendation for the 2025 corn crop. Given that the growing season has potential for high volatility and can provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year, we will also be watching the calendar along with price action. If our current Plan A upside objective in the 490 – 510 range isn’t met by our Plan B sales deadline of July 23, we will likely make another sales recommendation at that time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw mixed trade on Friday to end the week. Front end demand concerns pressured the market as prices finished fractionally lower as prices consolidated for the 9th session in a row. For the week, Dec corn posted a 10-cent loss.

  • The soft tone in old crop export sales this past week, and the potentially heavy front-end supply of corn kept pressure on front month contracts. Front end corn prices may be poised for selling pressure going into August as September Basis contracts will need to be priced, and producers look to move old crop corn to make room for this fall’s harvest.

  • Ethanol production has been a bright spot in recent corn demand. Weekly production remains strong and with the recent rise in oil prices, margins remain friendly. With that combination, ethanol producers have room to bid up for corn on the cash market, stockpiling for future ethanol production. Ethanol margins could be squeezed as crude oil prices dropped 3% today as the crude oil market saw long contract liquidation to end the week.

  • Weather forecasts going into the end of July remain supportive for crop development. Temperatures are to remain cool with moisture forecasted for many regions of the corn belt. Weather concerns regarding the corn market are now mostly past the point of concern unless there are extremes.

Above: The negative market action on July 15 puts the bullish reversal from report day July 12 in question. If support in the area of 391 holds and prices reverse back higher, they could run toward 425 – 430, though they may encounter initial resistance around 410 – 415. On the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the upper 1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean prices faded midday and settled lower after trading higher in the overnight session, with selling pressure coming from declining meal and oil prices. December bean oil retreated after hitting overhead resistance near key moving averages just below 45.00 cents, while December meal uncovered selling just below yesterday’s high.

  • The USDA reported another flash sale indicating that private exporters sold another 105,000 mt of soybean meal to unknown destinations. The sale had little effect on the market as soybean meal quickly sold off upon the market’s reopening of the day session.

  • With crush margins firm, the nearby August contract continues to see support from solid demand as buyers reach for hard to get supplies, still held by strong hands. While new crop contracts continue to see overhead resistance with a non-threatening weather outlook and the prospect of a large crop this fall.

  • Later today the CFTC will release its updated Commitment of Traders report, showing fund positions as of Tuesday, July 16. With the weak price action seen this week, it is anticipated that managed funds added to their extensive net short position, potentially bringing it to about 190,000 contracts.

Above: The large gap on the continuous chart represents the roll from the August soybean contract to the September, where the 50-cent premium in the August contract relative to the September contract is no longer represented. That said, support for the September contract on a break below 1030 may come in near the 1000 psychological level with further support around 985. Overhead, a turnaround toward higher prices may encounter resistance between 1065 – 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • While wheat did close in positive territory today, all three categories finished the session well below daily highs. Early strength came from Paris milling wheat futures; front month September gained 8.75 Euros per ton, filling the chart gap from earlier in the week by a long shot. This may be tied to French wheat crop ratings, which declined 5% to 52% good to excellent with 14% of the crop harvested. This is the slowest harvest pace since 2021, and last year at this time the crop was rated much more favorably at 80% good to excellent.

  • IKAR is reported to have lowered their estimate of Russian grain production by 1.5 mmt to 128 mmt. Additionally, they reduced Russian grain exports by 0.5 mmt to 55 mmt. On a related note, Ukraine’s grain harvest so far has reached 13.8 mmt, with 10.3 mmt of that being wheat.

  • A warmer and drier forecast for the US northern plains, as well as parts of the Canadian prairies, is causing some concern that spring wheat yields may be affected. This helped Minneapolis futures to rally today; they closed as today’s upside leader in the wheat complex. In addition, 12% of spring wheat acres are said to be in drought as of July 16, a jump from just 7% the week prior.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, planting of the 24/25 wheat crop in Argentina has advanced from 92.9% to 95% complete. The planted area estimate was unchanged at 6.3 million hectares. For reference, last year 5.9 million hectares of wheat were planted.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of your July ‘25 620 Chicago Wheat puts at approximately 67 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Last month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts for approximately 34 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July Chicago wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 Chicago wheat has dropped over 100 cents, with the July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, and plenty of unknowns remain that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at a net neutral cost, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The consolidation of the Chicago wheat market shows support below the market around just above the March 523 ½ low. Should the market continue higher, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600. While a close below 523 ½ could suggest a lower trend towards 500 psychological support, with further support in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After finding support just below 550, KC wheat prices could continue higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. A reversal lower, and a break below 545 could find further support in the 530 area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since rallying in late June, the market has retraced back toward its lows, and has broken the 644 support level. The breaking of 644 support suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved, and prices could trend lower. Considering this and that it is the time of year to begin getting early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider is implementing its Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling a portion of your 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish key reversal posted on July 17 indicates that support lies just below the market around 575, and given that the market is oversold, prices could run toward the July highs near 636. Below 575, support should remain in the 550 – 540 area.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

|

7-18 End of Day: Soybeans Higher Thursday on Strong Export Sales

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Disappointing export sales and continued favorable weather for the Corn Belt in the near-term pressured corn futures back near their recent lows on Thursday.

  • A flash sale this morning of just under 19 million bushels of soybeans to unknown destinations as well as strong weekly export sales helped soybean futures close higher across the board today.

  • Wheat export sales came in near the top of expectations last week led by South Korea. Wheat futures finished mixed on the day with spring wheat futures higher and Chicago futures falling lower.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, and 6–10-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Considering we are at the time of year to get early sales made for next year’s crop, we recently issued our first sales recommendation for the 2025 corn crop. Given that the growing season has potential for high volatility and can provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year, we will also be watching the calendar along with price action. If our current Plan A upside objective in the 490 – 510 range isn’t met by our Plan B sales deadline of July 23, we will likely make another sales recommendation at that time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Disappointing export sales and general talk of a larger corn yield helped pressure the corn market as prices are testing support under the market. Going into Friday’s trade, Dec corn is down 9 ¾ cents on the week.

  • USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Last week, U.S. exporters reported new sales of 438,000 MT (17.2 mb) for old crop and 486,000 MT (19.1 mb) for new. Old crop sales were below expectations, while export sale for new crop slightly exceeded expectations. The soft old crop sales pressured the front end of the corn market on Thursday.

  • With the friendly overall weather, strong crop ratings, talk in the marketplace is corn yield could be raised going into harvest. Some analyst groups are looking at a potential 183-184 bushels/acres yield, one analyst group posted an extreme number of 189 bushels/acre. Even with reduced harvested acres, a yield jump will add bushels to the potential corn stockpile.

  • A bright spot in corn demand is ethanol production. Weekly production remains strong and with the recent rise in oil prices, margins remain friendly. With that combination, ethanol producers have room to bid up for corn in the cash market, stockpiling for future ethanol production.

  • Weather concerns other than extremes are likely past the point of impacting the corn crop nationally. Going into the end of the month, the forecast remains very favorable for corn production.

Above: The negative market action on July 15 puts the bullish reversal from report day July 12 in question. If support in the area of 391 holds and prices reverse back higher, they could run toward 425 – 430, though they may encounter initial resistance around 410 – 415. On the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the upper 1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Solid export sales across the soybean complex, and flash sales reported for new crop beans helped soybeans close with modest gains near the top end of its range. Soybean oil also settled higher and toward the upper end of its range, while meal closed lower with most of the weakness in the nearby contracts.

  • The August/November spread may have reached a point of exhaustion, after reaching a fresh high of 61 cents, bear spreading took over and pushed the differential back to 55 ½, down ¾ of a cent from yesterday’s close.

  • The USDA released its weekly export sales report earlier today, showing 27 million bushels in new soybean sales as of July 11. The total was split between 13.2 mb for the 23/24 marketing year and 13.8 mb for the new crop 24/25 marketing year. Export shipments last week totaling 7.4 mb fell below the 14.8 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA export goal of 1.700 bb.

  • The USDA reported flash sales showing private exporters sold 510,000 mt (18.7 mb) of soybeans and 150,000 mt of soybean meal to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year. With rumors circulating that China was in the market to buy US beans off the PNW, the possibility remains that this soybean sale could be for them, though there is no way to know without confirmation.

  • Analyst APK-Inform lowered its 2024 Ukrainian sunflower seed and soybean crop estimates due to the hot and dry weather. The agency dropped sunflower seed production 1% to 14.5 mmt, and soybean production by 2% to 5.9 mmt. Ukraine is a leading exporter of sunflower seed products which compete with soybean meal and oil.

Above: The large gap on the continuous chart represents the roll from the August soybean contract to the September, where the 50 cent premium in the August contract relative to the September contract is no longer represented. That said, support for the September contract may come in near the 1000 psychological level with further support around 985. Overhead, a turnaround toward higher prices may encounter resistance between 1065 – 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed mixed amongst the three classes today. The US Dollar Index saw a sharp recovery, which offered resistance to commodities. Additionally, Paris milling wheat futures closed neutral to slightly lower and have yet to fill the chart gap above the market. Winter wheat harvest is headed towards completion, so perhaps the market is trying to carve out harvest lows.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 21.3 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 23.2 mb exceeded the 16.2 mb pace needed per wheat to reach the export goal of 825 mb. Sales commitments are also above the estimated pace, now totaling 284 mb, which is up 49% year on year.

  • Chinese customs data indicated that they imported 1.2 mmt of wheat in June, a 44% increase year on year. So far, year to date imports at 9.3 mmt are up 16% from last year.

  • According to Interfax, Grain Gates, a Russian grain trader increased their exports by 80% during the 23/24 season to 14.1 mmt. Reportedly they boosted the number of countries they export to. Top destinations include north African countries, Turkey, and Indonesia. Grain Gates was said to be one of the biggest Russian exporters during the first half of the 23/24 season.

  • With much improved soil moisture and growing conditions, Argentina’s wheat crop is expected to increase to 18.2 mmt for the 24/25 season due to higher yields. That would be up 14.9% from the previous year and may also be influenced by a larger planted area, expected to expand 5% year on year to 6.2 million hectares.

  • According to a study published in the journal Nature Genetics, Chinese scientists have found a gene that should improve wheat yields in salty soils. Using this knowledge of the salt tolerance gene could result in a yield boost of 5-9%. This may be important for Chinese grown wheat, as many of their primary production areas have high saline soils.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of your July ‘25 620 Chicago Wheat puts at approximately 67 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Last month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts for approximately 34 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July Chicago wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 Chicago wheat has dropped over 100 cents, with the July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, and plenty of unknowns remain that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at a net neutral cost, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break through 556 support suggests that the market could trend lower. Below the market, prices may find initial support around 520, with further support down between 490 and 470, with psychological support coming in near 500. If initial support around holds, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After breaking through the bottom end of its consolidation range, KC wheat may find support in the 560 – 550 area of last spring’s lows. If this area holds, prices could turn higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. Otherwise, a break below 550 could find further support in the 530 area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since rallying in late June, the market has retraced back toward its lows, and has broken the 644 support level. The breaking of 644 support suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved, and prices could trend lower. Considering this and that it is the time of year to begin getting early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider is implementing its Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling a portion of your 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The break below 596 support suggests that prices could retreat further towards the 550 – 540 support area. While a rally back above 600 could encounter resistance near 610 with heavier resistance near 636.

Other Charts / Weather

|

7-17 End of Day: Wheat Leads Corn Higher; Soybeans Close Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover strength from the wheat market, and solid ethanol production numbers, lent support to the corn market as prices continue to consolidate around the 410 area in the December contract.

  • Soybean futures closed mixed, with spot month August maintaining strength from canceled deliverable receipts and a strong cash market. Deferred contracts fell on prospects of healthy supplies ahead, while sharply lower soybean oil limited the rally potential. Meanwhile, meal rallied off its lows to close moderately higher.

  • A sharp drop in the US dollar triggered buying in all three wheat classes, as they closed higher across the board in an attempt to correct from oversold conditions. Minneapolis contracts showed the most strength, followed by KC.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6-10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the Vegetation Drought Response Index, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Considering we are at the time of year to get early sales made for next year’s crop, we recently issued our first sales recommendation for the 2025 corn crop. Given that the growing season has potential for high volatility and can provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year, we will also be watching the calendar along with price action. If our current Plan A upside objective in the 490 – 510 range isn’t met by our Plan B sales deadline of July 23, we will likely make another sales recommendation at that time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Spillover strength in the wheat market helped support December corn futures prices around the 410 area. The market has been consolidating in this area for the past 7 sessions as the market has moved into a sideways pattern, with corn prices looking for a signal for the next price move.

  • With improved margins, weekly ethanol production trended higher last week. Average production last week was 1.106 million barrels/day. This was up 4.9% from last week and up 3.4% from last year and set a new daily high for ethanol production for this week of the calendar year. The amount of corn used for the week is estimated at 109.78 million bushels, which is slightly below the pace to reach the new USDA ethanol usage targets for the marketing year.

  • The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday morning. Expectations are for new sales to range from 500,000 – 800,000 mt for the old crop and up to 400,000 mt for the new crop.  With just over a month left in the marketing year, the market will be starting to focus more on new crop sales, which have been lackluster.

  • Weather concerns other than extremes are likely past the point of impacting the corn crop nationally. Going into the end of the month, the forecast remains very favorable for corn production.

Above: The negative market action on July 15 puts the bullish reversal from report day July 12 in question. If support in the area of 391 holds and prices reverse back higher, they could run toward 425 – 430, though they may encounter initial resistance around 410 – 415. On the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the upper 1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The soybean market closed the session in mixed fashion with the August and September contracts settling higher on the day, with the deferred contracts lower. August beans gained support as CBOT deliverable receipts showed net cancellations for all three legs of the complex, indicating firm demand in the cash market.  

  • Just before the morning break, August beans rallied to close the gap left behind from Sunday evening’s lower opening from Friday’s close. Once filled, August soybeans retreated in choppy trade as new crop contracts led the way lower, with weakness coming from sharply lower soybean oil. Soybean meal, on the other hand, rebounded and settled in the green near the day’s highs.

  • It’s been reported that China bought upwards of 4.5 million metric tons of Brazilian soybeans, primarily for August delivery, since the beginning of July, taking advantage of the recent drop in prices and the recent drop in the Brazilian real, which makes Brazil’s soybeans more competitive on the export market compared to US offers.

  • The recent buying activity by China from Brazil highlights the thin book of sales that the US currently has for the new crop. More recently, there have been rumors that China may have bought 6 or 7 cargoes of US beans off the PNW for late summer delivery since the Brazilian real has rebounded and stabilized, allowing US offers to be more competitive.

Above: The large gap on the continuous chart represents the roll from the August soybean contract to the September, where the 50 cent premium in the August contract relative to the September contract is no longer represented. That said, support for the September contract may come in near the 1000 psychological level with further support around 985. Overhead, a turnaround toward higher prices may encounter resistance between 1065 – 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Though closing below session highs, wheat was the upside leader today in the grain complex. The US Dollar Index offered support as it dropped sharply today, hitting the lowest level since late March. This may be tied to the belief that the Federal Reserve will issue a rate cut in September. Additionally, US wheat futures are very oversold and could be due for more of an upside correction.

  • The chart gap above the market has yet to be filled for Paris milling wheat futures, despite a higher close for those contracts today. Along with being technically oversold, this may lend credence to the idea that wheat has some potential to rally, as gaps tend to be filled over time. 

  • Russia supplied the majority of the wheat in Egypt’s largest tender in two years. Of the 770,000 mt total, Russia fulfilled 720,000, while Bulgaria got the rest of the business for 50,000 mt. Russia continues to dominate the export market despite some of the issues their crop faced. Currently, their spring wheat crop may be impacted by heat and dryness.

  • According to their agriculture ministry, the export duty on Russian wheat increased 4.7% from 1,701.3 to 1,780.5 Rubles per mt as of July 17. These duties are said to be valid until July 23, and only apply to wheat; duties on barley and corn will remain at zero.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of your July ‘25 620 Chicago Wheat puts at approximately 67 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Last month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts for approximately 34 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July Chicago wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 Chicago wheat has dropped over 100 cents, with the July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, and plenty of unknowns remain that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at a net neutral cost, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break through 556 support suggests that the market could trend lower. Below the market, prices may find initial support around 520, with further support down between 490 and 470, with psychological support coming in near 500. If initial support around holds, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After breaking through the bottom end of its consolidation range, KC wheat may find support in the 560 – 550 area of last spring’s lows. If this area holds, prices could turn higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. Otherwise, a break below 550 could find further support in the 530 area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since rallying in late June, the market has retraced back toward its lows, and has broken the 644 support level. The breaking of 644 support suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved, and prices could trend lower. Considering this and that it is the time of year to begin getting early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider is implementing its Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling a portion of your 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The break below 596 support suggests that prices could retreat further towards the 550 – 540 support area. While a rally back above 600 could encounter resistance near 610 with heavier resistance near 636.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

|

7-16 End of Day: Corn and Beans Succeed in a Turnaround Tuesday as Wheat Stumbles

ByLisa Heder

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Following Monday’s sharp losses, the corn market likely saw some short covering and positive money flow enter the market in response to strong storms that moved through the Midwest on Monday evening.

  • Following choppy two sided trade, the soybean market settled higher on the day, as traders covered short positions from the recent sharp decline. Old crop August held much of its gains, with support from a strong cash market. Meanwhile, new crop contracts closed well off their respective highs.

  • Led by KC wheat, all three wheat classes settled in the red for the third consecutive day. Solid spring wheat conditions, the continuing winter wheat harvest, and low export prices out of Russia, continue to keep a lid on US wheat prices and limit any rally potential.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Considering we are at the time of year to get early sales made for next year’s crop, we recently issued our first sales recommendation for the 2025 corn crop. Given that the growing season has potential for high volatility and can provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year, we will also be watching the calendar along with price action. If our current Plan A upside objective in the 490 – 510 range isn’t met by our Plan B sales deadline of July 23, we will likely make another sales recommendation at that time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market used unchanged crop ratings and a Derecho event across the corn belt to trigger some short covering and positive money flow into the corn market on Tuesday.

  • The USDA released its latest round of crop ratings on Monday afternoon. The current corn crop was rated 68% good to excellent, unchanged from last week, and down 1% from expectations. The crop is still 11% better than last year at this time. As the strong ratings continue, there are whispers that the current yield projections are too low, with talk the national corn yield could be 183-184 bushels/acre this fall.

  • A strong line of thunderstorms moved from Eastern Iowa to Central Indiana on Monday night. The storm path was deemed a Derecho event with strong winds up to 80-90 mph. The market sitting on a large short position likely covered some short in the prospects of potential damage to the corn crop that could have occurred. Any news from the storm will be a wait and see approach.

  • Despite the possible wind damage, areas around that region also received additional rainfall, which helps during the key pollination window. Weather concerns other than extremes are likely past the point of impacting the corn crop nationally.

Above: The negative market action on July 15 puts the bullish reversal from report day July 12 in question. If support in the area of 391 holds and prices reverse back higher, they could run toward 425 – 430, though they may encounter initial resistance around 410 – 415. On the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the upper 1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans staged a bit of a recovery following yesterday’s steep decline, with the November contract rallying to as much as 12 cents higher, while old crop August reached 18 ½ cents higher. While the new crop contracts closed the day with small gains, August maintained its strength as the cash market continues to reach for supplies to keep pipelines full. 

  • The soybean crop’s good to excellent rating remained steady at 68% from last week in this week’s Crop Progress report, which remains the highest rating since 2020, and compares to last year’s 55% G/E rating. 51% of the crop is blooming versus the 5-year average of 44%, while 18% is setting pods.

  • ABIOVE, a trade group representing Brazilian crushers, raised their production estimate for Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop by 0.7 mmt to 153.2 mmt, in line with the USDA’s current estimate of 153 mmt. Both estimates remain well above the Conab projection of 147.34 mmt.

  • Strong storms moved through the Midwest Monday night with diminishing strength as they moved south and east. While some structural damage was reported, the extent of any crop damage remains unknown. Temperatures are expected to fall back to normal to below normal through the end of the month, with rain over the next week favoring the southern half of the Midwest.

Above: TThe recent break through 1125 support suggests that the market could retreat further towards the next major support area between 1050 and 1040. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1100 with further resistance up towards 1130.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After making an attempt to rally, wheat closed modestly lower in all three classes. This is despite a turnaround in Paris milling wheat futures that managed a slightly positive close for both September and December contracts, though still leaving yesterday’s chart gap yet to be filled. Selling pressure for US wheat was likely the result of another increase to the US Dollar, harvest pressure, good spring wheat conditions, and an export market dominated by Russia.

  • According to yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report, winter wheat is 71% harvested, well above last year’s 53% pace and the 62% average. Additionally, spring wheat conditions improved 2% from last week to 77% good to excellent. This is well above 51% at this time last year and is also the highest rating since 2019. Furthermore, spring wheat is 76% headed versus 59% a week ago, 82% last year, and 78% on average.

  • Russian wheat export values continue to be the world’s cheapest. This continues to limit upside movement for US futures prices. Egypt is tendering for wheat, and Russia was said to be the lowest offer at $226 per mt FOB. The results of that tender are expected at some point today. 

  • In southern Brazil, the planting and development of the winter wheat crop are behind schedule due to recent heavy rains, though drier conditions are expected for the rest of the week. Additionally, frosts and dry conditions are also a concern for the wheat crop in Argentina.

  • Asian wheat importers are said to have increased their buying over the past few weeks as global wheat prices have declined. Those purchases are set to be sourced from eastern Europe, however, and the US is expected to miss out on the business. As much as 1 mmt of wheat purchases have been locked in from Russia, Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria for August-September shipment.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of your July ‘25 620 Chicago Wheat puts at approximately 67 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Last month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts for approximately 34 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July Chicago wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 Chicago wheat has dropped over 100 cents, with the July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, and plenty of unknowns remain that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at a net neutral cost, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break through 556 support suggests that the market could trend lower. Below the market, prices may find initial support around 520, with further support down between 490 and 470, with psychological support coming in near 500. If initial support around holds, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After breaking through the bottom end of its consolidation range, KC wheat may find support in the 560 – 550 area of last spring’s lows. If this area holds, prices could turn higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. Otherwise, a break below 550 could find further support in the 530 area.

Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since rallying in late June, the market has retraced back toward its lows, and has broken the 644 support level. The breaking of 644 support suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved, and prices could trend lower. Considering this and that it is the time of year to begin getting early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider is implementing its Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling a portion of your 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The break below 596 support suggests that prices could retreat further towards the 550 – 540 support area. While a rally back above 600 could encounter resistance near 610 with heavier resistance near 636.

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

|

7-15 End of Day: Beans Lead Corn Lower; Wheat Follows Through on Bearish USDA WASDE

ByLisa Heder

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • While December corn remains above key 400 support, weakness in neighboring soybeans and wheat helped press corn to double digit losses today, despite Friday’s USDA report that was friendly to prices.

  • Following Sunday night’s gap lower opening, the soybean market never recovered and closed sharply lower, with weakness coming from a growing supply picture and weak exports and NOPA crush data.

  • Follow through from bearish supply data in Friday’s USDA report coupled with falling Russian export values and sharply lower Matif wheat futures, weighed heavily on the wheat complex in today’s trade that ended with all three classes closing sharply lower.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  With it being the time of year to start getting early sales on the books for next year, and considering that the higher-than-expected June 1 stocks suggest an increasing supply outlook for the 2024 crop, which could create overhead resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, allowing the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn closed with double digit losses across the board, alongside sharply lower soybeans and wheat. It appears that funds are continuing to add to short positions; as of Friday’s Commitment of Traders report they held a net short of 354,000 corn contracts, the largest since 2019. Looking at the silver lining though, so far December corn has not broken through support at 400.

  • The corn market continues to see a tale of two crops. Parts of the eastern corn belt look very good and have rain in the forecast over the next seven days. But in the northwestern corn belt where there has been so much flood damage, shallow roots may be an issue as that region is expected to start becoming warmer and drier.

  • Weekly corn inspections at 42.5 mb were in line with expectations and bring total 23/24 inspections to 1.756 bb. That is up 31% year on year and inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s projected pace; total corn exports are projected at 2.150 bb.

  • According to AgRural, Brazil’s safrinha corn crop harvest is 74% complete in the central and southern regions, and according to CONAB, this crop is about 61% harvested in total, with the first corn crop at 95% complete. This harvest pressure is also said to be affecting corn prices in Brazil, causing them to drop. Furthermore, CONAB raised their estimate of the safrinha crop production to 90 mmt from 88.11 mmt in June.

Above: The negative market action on July 15 puts the bullish reversal from report day July 12 in question. If support in the area of 391 holds and prices reverse back higher, they could run toward 425 – 430, though they may encounter initial resistance around 410 – 415. On the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 17,445 contracts between July 3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 353,983 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the upper 1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the 1240 – 1280 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The soybean market gapped lower across the board at the onset of trading Sunday night and never looked back. Soft weekly export and NOPA crush data added to the negativity in the soybean complex, and while Friday’s WASDE report was neutral to friendly relative to expectations, it still showcased a growing supply picture, which continues to weigh on the market.

  • Soybean meal and oil also traded lower in sympathy with soybeans as Board Crush margins gained 13 ½ cents in the August contracts and 5 cents in the December from today’s weakness.

  • Today’s NOPA crush report showed June crush below expectations at 175.6 mb. Though within the range of expectations, the trade was looking for a number closer to 178 mb. Soybean oil stocks also came in at 1.622 billion pounds, below expectations of 1.669 bil. lbs. Initial reactions rallied nearby, old crop oil contracts, though new crop contracts remain weak.

  • Weekly soybean export inspections were below expectations with only 6 mb inspected for export, a marketing year low. They were also behind the pace needed to reach the USDA’s forecast. Year to date inspections remain 16% below last year while the USDA projects a 15% decline.

  • Friday the Commitment of Traders report was issued, showing that as of Tuesday, July 9 managed funds increased their net short soybean position by 31,679 contracts. This brought their total net short soybean position to 172,605 contracts. Since that time have likely added to that position, with it currently being an estimated net short totaling 183,000 contracts.

  • Friday’s WASDE report was favorable for corn but neutral for soybeans. Old crop ending stocks came in at 345 million bushels, 5 mb below last month and towards the lower end of expectations. US production for 24/25 was slightly lowered from last month’s estimate to 4.435 bb, and slightly below trade expectations. Yields remained unchanged at 52.0 bpa, while new crop ending stocks were pegged at 435 mb, relatively in line with expectations.

  • The soybean market may be experiencing some geopolitical pressure as well, as many believe the assassination attempt on former President Trump could have greatly increased the odds of his re-election, potentially bringing with it more strained trade relations with the world’s largest soybean importer, China.

Above: The recent break through 1125 support suggests that the market could retreat further towards the next major support area between 1050 and 1040. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1100 with further resistance up towards 1130.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 31,679 contracts between July 3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 172,605 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed sharply lower in all three US categories. Weakness stemmed from mostly bearish data on Friday’s WASDE report. Though exports and demand were raised, this was offset by higher carryout numbers, as well as higher production estimates for both spring and winter wheat. To add to the negativity, Matif wheat futures gapped lower today, and also closed near session lows.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 19.6 mb were above expectations and bring total 24/25 inspections to 83 mb. This is up 26% from last year and inspections are running far ahead of the USDA’s projected pace; total 24/25 exports are estimated at 825 mb, a 25 mb increase on last Friday’s report.

  • IKAR has reportedly increased their estimate of the Russian wheat crop by 1.2 mmt to 83.2 mmt, aligning with the USDA’s estimate. This, combined with falling export values, is bearish for the market. Russian wheat exports have reportedly decreased to $218 per mt FOB. Additionally, SovEcon reported that Russia exported 600,000 mt of grain last week, with 510,000 mt of that being wheat.

  • Flour millers in Pakistan have reportedly gone on strike to protest new taxes. Consequently, the Pakistani government has halted all exports of flour made from imported wheat and stopped all wheat imports, according to their commerce ministry. Pakistan’s wheat harvest is expected to be 5.4% higher than last year but still 2.3 mmt below the targeted 32 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of your July ‘25 620 Chicago Wheat puts at approximately 67 cents in premium minus fees and commission.  Last month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts for approximately 34 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July Chicago wheat had just broken through support near 706.  The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 Chicago wheat has dropped over 100 cents, with the July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, and plenty of unknowns remain that could rally prices.  Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at a net neutral cost, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break through 556 support suggests that the market could trend lower. Below the market, prices may find initial support around 520, with further support down between 490 and 470, with psychological support coming in near 500. If initial support around holds, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,837 contracts between July 3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 69,137 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After breaking through the bottom end of its consolidation range, KC wheat may find support in the 560 – 550 area of last spring’s lows. If this area holds, prices could turn higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. Otherwise, a break below 550 could find further support in the 530 area.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,292 contracts between July 3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 40,811 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since rallying in late June, the market has retraced back toward its lows, and has broken the 644 support level. The breaking of 644 support suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved, and prices could trend lower. Considering this and that it is the time of year to begin getting early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider is implementing its Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling a portion of your 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The break below 596 support suggests that prices could retreat further towards the 550 – 540 support area. While a rally back above 600 could encounter resistance near 610 with heavier resistance near 636.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,268 contracts between July 3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 23,723 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

|

7-12 End of Day: USDA Report Bullish Corn, Neutral Beans, Bearish Wheat

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • In anticipation of a bearish report the corn market started the day in the red, but rallied sharply upon the release of much lower than expected ending stocks data for both old crop and new. Unfortunately, weakness in neighboring wheat and soybeans limited corns rally potential as it consolidated into the close with only moderate gains.

  • Although the soybean market got an initial shot in the arm from the USDA report, the slight downward revisions to soybean ending stocks were more neutral than bullish and were not enough to overcome the bearish fundamentals of good growing conditions and slow export demand. Weakness in both soybean meal and oil also dragged on the soybean market with lower closes in both products.

  • A surprise increase in US wheat production and ending stocks help drive all three wheat classes lower on the day, with losses that largely outweigh yesterday’s gains. Rumors of a potentially revived Black Sea Grain Initiative and lower Matif wheat likely added to the negativity.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  With it being the time of year to start getting early sales on the books for next year, and considering that the higher-than-expected June 1 stocks suggest an increasing supply outlook for the 2024 crop, which could create overhead resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, allowing the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market started the day weak, failing to build on yesterday’s rally due to anticipation of a bearish USDA report. However, it surged after the USDA announced surprise decreases in both old crop and new crop ending stocks. Despite this, weak trade in the wheat complex and neighboring soybeans limited corn gains.

  • The USDA surprised the market by dropping old crop ending stocks for the 23/24 crop year to 1.877 billion bushels from June’s estimate of 2.022 bb, where a slight increase was anticipated, by raising export demand much more than expected, along with increased feed and residual use. 

  • 24/25 ending stocks came in at 2.097 bb from June’s 2.102 bb where an increase to 2.312 was expected. The decrease was largely due to the lower 23/24 ending stocks which become the 24/25 marketing year’s beginning stocks number. Production for 24/25 was as expected with no change to yield with the additional acres from the June 28 Acreage report.  

  • For South America, the USDA made only a minor adjustment to Argentina’s corn production estimate by dropping it to 1 mmt from last month’s estimate to 52 mmt. For Brazil, the USDA kept its projection unchanged at 122 mmt from last month, and above Conab’s latest 115.86 mmt estimate.

  • In yesterday’s trade, it was estimated that funds bought about 2,000 contracts in the corn market, which brought their total estimated net short position to 364,000 contracts, a record if verified. Later today, the CFTC will release its Commitment of Traders report showing the fund’s net position in the markets as of Tuesday, June 9. Given the size of the fund’s net short position and today’s bullish report, it is possible that we could see a corrective bounce and some short covering in the market.

  • Basis continues to be firm in the spot market as exporters and processors reach for supplies with slow farmer selling. This may change as farmers begin to move current supplies into the market as they make room for the upcoming harvest.

Above: The bullish surprise in the July WASDE report led the corn market to post a bullish reversal from the 393 – 391 support area. This reversal suggests that prices could run toward 425 – 430, though they may encounter initial resistance around 410 – 415. On the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the upper 1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the 1240 – 1280 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after today’s mostly neutral WASDE report. Prices made new lows for the year as trade expects a large soybean crop with continued good weather in the forecast at this point. Poor export sales have also been a negative factor in soybeans and the entire grain complex. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.

  • For the week, August soybeans lost 61 ¼ cents to 1105 and November soybeans lost 64 ½ cents to 1065 ¼. August soybean meal lost $18.40 to $338.80, and August soybean oil lost 2.90 cents to 46.65 cents. With weather and crop conditions seemingly good so far and export sales slow, funds have not had encouragement to begin buying back their large net short position.

  • Today’s WASDE report was friendly to corn but very neutral for soybeans. US production for 24/25 was lowered very slightly from last month’s estimate to 4.435 billion bushels and was a hair short of the trade guess. Yields were unchanged at 52.0 bpa and new crop ending stocks pegged at 435 mb were just below trade expectations.

  • The USDA did not adjust Brazilian soybean production in today’s report and left it at 153 mmt which is well above CONAB’s estimate from earlier this week at 147.34 mmt. It is unusual to have such a large discrepancy in production when the crop is virtually completely harvested, so those numbers will need to converge eventually. The USDA did lower its estimate of Argentina’s soybean crop slightly to 49.5 mmt, from last month’s 50 mmt.

Above: The recent break through 1125 support suggests that the market could retreat further towards the next major support area between 1050 and 1040, though psychological support may be uncovered around 1100. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1130 with further resistance up towards 1160 – 1165.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed sharply lower in all three categories as a result of relatively bearish data in today’s WASDE report. Additionally, Matif wheat futures also closed lower, offering no support, despite a French wheat crop that is in much poorer shape compared to a year ago.

  • On today’s report, the US wheat numbers were unfriendly to the market; the USDA increased their estimate of all wheat production from 1.875 bb in June to 2.008 bb currently. That is the highest in eight years and paints a bearish picture for the wheat market. As far as the breakdown goes, winter wheat production came in at 1.34 bb, up 7% from last year, while spring wheat production was estimated at 578 mb, up 14% from a year ago. Global wheat production also went up to 796.19 mmt versus 790.75 last month.

  • Both the US and world carryout numbers also added pressure to the wheat market. US old crop carryout increased from 688 mb to 702 mb, while the 24/25 ending stocks went from 758 mb to 856 mb. Globally, 23/24 wheat carryout increased from 259.6 mmt to 261.0 mmt, and the 24/25 season went from 252.3 mmt on the June report to 257.2 mmt today.

  • Aside from today’s data, there were also rumors overnight that Russia’s President Putin will not rule out a revival of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. This talk may have added to the weakness in wheat because, in theory, this would allow Ukraine to export more grain.

  • According to the Rosario Board of Trade, Argentina’s wheat production forecast has been cut to 20.5 mmt, a 2.4% decline from the previous projection of 21 mmt. Argentine farmers are currently planting the 24/25 crop, but dry conditions in June have affected the planting process, leading to the reduced forecast. Additionally, the estimated planted area has decreased from 6.9 million hectares last month to 6.7 million hectares.

  • The wheat crop in western Australia is expected to see a 20% year over year increase to 9.2 mmt. July rains have brought relief to drier crop areas, and yields are anticipated to improve. However, weather and growing conditions will likely need to remain favorable through the rest of the season in order to achieve this production estimate.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since late June Chicago wheat has been largely rangebound between 591 up top and 556 down below. Should support hold and prices breakout and close above 600 psychological resistance, they could move toward the 630 – 645 area, while a close below 556 could find further support between 550 and 520.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After breaking through the bottom end of its consolidation range, KC wheat may have found support in the 560 – 550 area of last spring’s lows. If this area holds, prices could turn higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. Otherwise, a break below 550 could find further support in the 530 area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 700 – 710 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 644. As long as the Sept ’25 contract remains above 644 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 690 – 710. If the Sept ’25 contract were to close below 644, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 690 – 710 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Therefore, a break of support would trigger a sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: It appears that the rally off the 600 support area encountered resistance just below 640. Should prices continue lower, support remains between 600 and 596, with heavier support towards 542. While a close above 640 could suggest a rally back towards the 662 – 683 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.