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6-17 End of Day: Grains Begin the Week in the Red

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Wednesday, June 19, in Observance of Juneteenth

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover weakness from wheat and soybeans, and a quick harvest pace of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop weighed heavily on the corn market in today’s trade, which saw volatile two sided trade and heavy resistance near the 200-day moving average in the July contract.
  • Solid NOPA crush numbers weren’t enough to support soybeans which closed sharply lower on benign weather forecasts and good planting progress. Sharply lower soybean meal contributed to the negativity, likely from the high crush numbers, while soybean oil saw support from much lower than expected oil stocks from today’s crush report that were 6% below last year.
  • Despite wheat export inspections that were above expectations, the wheat complex experienced another day of heavy losses in all three classes from technical selling with little bullish news, and sharply lower Matif wheat.
  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the updated US 6-10 and 8-14-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a portion of their net short position, their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as we transition into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, weather is still a dominant feature, and seasonal tendencies remain positive.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed a Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although weather remains a dominant factor, the technical picture could look better, and we try not to carry old crop inventory past mid-July. Therefore, our current Plan A strategy for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, is to target the 480 – 520 range versus Sept ’24, and if the market fails to present the opportunity for that upside sale and turns lower, our Plan B strategy will be targeting a close below 448 versus Sept’ 24.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market experienced volatile two sided trade and heavy resistance up towards 450 and the 200-day moving average in the July contract. Heavy selling in both soybeans and wheat contributed to the weakness in the corn market along with Conab’s report that Brazil’s safrinha corn crop harvest is 21% complete, well ahead of last year’s 5% at this time. The quick Brazilian harvest could reduce the US corn export share.
  • Weekly export inspections for corn came in as expected with 51 mb inspected for export. Total year-to-date inspections are running 26% ahead of last year at 1.591 billion bushels versus the USDA’s projection of a 29% increase.
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed, as of June 11, that managed funds bought a mere 427 contracts, keeping their net short corn position relatively unchanged at 212,279 contracts. Of note though were net sales of 1,822 contracts by Index funds which typically hold long only positions, showing a potential shift in bullish sentiment.
  • The Crop Progress report released later this afternoon is expected to show a 2%-3% decline in the good-to-excellent rating for the corn crop. Although initial ratings were historically high, significant trouble spots remain across the Midwest, with some areas experiencing excessive heat and dryness, while others have received too much rain.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 427 contracts between June 5 – June 11, bringing their total position to a net short 212,279 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After rallying out of its previous congestion range in early May on planting concerns, the soybean market remained rangebound, capped overhead by resistance around 1250 with support below the market near 1200 for much of May. Now in June, soybean prices have broken underlying support and look poised to test the recent lows which sit near the 1150 level on the July chart. With much of the growing season in front of the market, a weather-related issue or surge in currently poor demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1320 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly lower to start the week with the July contract down 22 cents and November down 19 ½ cents. Pressure is coming from good weather forecasts in the Corn Belt over the next month and good planting progress so far. Soybean meal dragged the complex lower with the July contract down 2.20%. Soybean oil was mixed with the three front months slightly higher and deferred months lower.
  • Today’s move lower came despite the NOPA crush report that was released and showed US May crush at 183.625 million bushels which was well above trade estimates and was a record for the month of May. With export demand sluggish, crush demand in the US is crucial.
  • Today’s weekly export inspections report showed soybean inspections at 12.3 mb for the week ending June 13. This puts total inspections at 1.502 billion bushels which is down 17% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating soybean exports at 1.700 billion bushels for 23/24 which would be down 15% from the previous year.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as net sellers as of June 11 adding 16,139 contracts to their net short position and bringing it to 75,880 contracts. The funds have likely been more aggressive sellers since prices turned lower on Friday.

Above: The sharp drop on June 16 brought the soybean market to test support near 1146. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area. Otherwise, they remain at risk of testing the 1130 – 1125 area.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 16,139 contracts between June 5 – June 11, bringing their total position to a net short 75,880 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • It was an ugly session in the grain complex with all three US wheats posting double digit losses alongside lower corn and soybeans. With no major news to drive this selloff, it may be technical in nature and driven by the managed funds. Additionally, the gap lower, and sharply lower close for Matif wheat futures did not offer any support to the US market. Winter wheat harvest pressure is also limiting any upside price movement.
  • Weekly wheat inspections at 13.8 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections to 25 mb. Inspections are ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace, and they are projecting exports at 775 mb, which is up 8% from the year prior.
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed that as of June 11, funds sold approximately 13,000 contracts of Chicago wheat, bringing their net short position to about 45,000 contracts. Minneapolis and Kansas City also saw them add short contracts – about 5,000 and 3,000 respectively.
  • According to their Agriculture Ministry, Ukraine’s grain exports have totaled 48.7 mmt since the season began on July 1, 2023. This is about a 3% increase from the year before, and of that total, 17.9 mmt are wheat, up about 11% year over year. Furthermore, Ukraine’s total grain exports are expected to hit 60 mmt in the next season that begins on July 1, 2024. Their grain production is pegged at 56 mmt, with wheat expected to account for 21 mmt of that total.
  • From a bullish perspective, India’s monsoon rain coverage is reported to be 20% below normal, pushing domestic prices to around $8.50 per bushel, a seven-month high. With government reserves also low, India may still need to be a net wheat importer.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. Support around 667 in the July ’25 Chicago wheat contract has been broken. Since peaking in May, the market has retraced over 50% back toward the March low, suggesting that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved and prices may trend lower. Taking this into consideration, Grain Market Insider is implementing a Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling another portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop at this time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 13,432 contracts between June 5 – June 11, bringing their total position to a net short 45,116 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, the recent breakout above resistance from the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the highs from last summer.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop. Support near 663 in the July ’25 KC wheat contract has been broken. Since peaking in May, the market has retraced over 50% toward the March low, suggesting that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved, and prices may trend lower. Taking this into consideration, Grain Market Insider is implementing a Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling another portion of your 2025 Hard Red Winter wheat crop at this time. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Jun11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,870 contracts between June 5 – Jun11, bringing their total position to a net short 16,408 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, the recent rally above resistance from last winter’s highs suggests there is potential for an extended rally toward summer 2023 highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Given the volatility in the wheat market, we recently recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to provide downside coverage for the 2025 crop due to their greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat. Moving forward, we will target a value of 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) in the July 620 puts to exit half of the original position, leaving the remainder to continue providing downside coverage with a net neutral cost if the market moves higher. Grain Market Insider may also start considering the first sales targets after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,197 contracts between June 5 – June 11, bringing their total position to a net long 2,535 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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6-14 End of Day: Grains Tumble to End the Week

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Wednesday, June 17, in Observance of Juneteenth

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures ended the week with poor price action. July futures managed to hang onto a small gain for the week. Weather forecast changes over the weekend will be watched by the trade ahead of Sunday night’s market open.
  • Soybeans continued their sideways, choppy trend to end the week as prices gave back most of Thursday’s gains on Friday, July futures were fractionally higher on the week. Like soybeans, both bean meal and oil front month futures were slightly higher on the week.
  • Falling Matif wheat futures, a once again higher US Dollar, and likely harvest pressure combined to push all three wheat classes lower on Friday. Front month KC wheat futures have closed lower in 11 of the last 13 trading sessions.
  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, calculated soil moisture ranking percentile as of June 12th and the updated US 6-10-day Precipitation Outlook, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a portion of their net short position, their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as we transition into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, weather is still a dominant feature, and seasonal tendencies remain positive.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed our Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although the technical picture could look better, weather remains a dominant factor and could still move prices back higher if conditions deteriorate. Therefore, we are currently targeting the 480 – 520 range versus July ’24 to make what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Difficult day in the corn market as the sellers took back control of the market to close the week. The weak price action posted negative technical signals in the corn market, which could lead to additional selling pressure to start next week. For the week, July corn finished the week 1 ¼ cents higher but well off the highs for the week.
  • Bear spreading was dominant in the corn market as the July futures sold strongly. The weakness in July was likely reflected in the cash market and farmer movement of corn off Thursday prices strength. The spreads between July and September and December dropped significantly since Wednesday in the futures market.
  • Seasonally, the corn market typically turns more negative as the crop is being put together. The lack of bullish news and the prospects of growing supplies will likely limit the market’s upside until there is a change in the market based on a supply concern or a strong uptick in demand.
  • Weather models are predicting above normal temperatures to move into the Corn Belt into late June and early July. The key will be precipitation, which early indications are for the rainfall to stay active in the western and northern Corn Belt, but the eastern Corn Belt is looking to turn drier.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After rallying out of its previous congestion range in early May on planting concerns, the soybean market remained rangebound, capped overhead by resistance around 1250 with support below the market near 1200 for much of May. Now in June, soybean prices have broken underlying support and look poised to test the recent lows which sit near the 1150 level on the July chart. With much of the growing season in front of the market, a weather-related issue or surge in currently poor demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1320 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower giving back the majority of yesterday’s gains, but overall, prices have been relatively rangebound for the past two weeks. There was little bullish support from the WASDE report, so the focus is now on weather which is expected to be mostly hot and dry this month. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower today as well.
  • On Monday, the NOPA crush report will be released, and crush is expected to come in at 178.352 million bushels. If realized, this would be up 5.3% from April’s crush of 169.436 mb. It would also be the largest May crush on record. With export demand poor, crush demand is helping support futures.
  • In South America, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange updated their estimates for grain production, but left soybeans unchanged from last month at 50.5 mmt. 96% of the soybean crop is estimated to be harvested at this point. Yesterday morning, CONAB updated its estimates for Brazilian soybean production to 147.354 mmt.
  • Brazilian soybean premiums declined the second half of the week after the Brazilian government’s tax plan was rejected by the Brazil Congress. With the threat of higher expenses off the table, the Brazil soybean market saw prices fall back into competition with US and Argentina export prices.

Above: The soybean market appears to be holding support around the 1175 area, with further support down towards 1146. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area on their way toward recent highs near 1260.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat classes closed lower across the board today. This was in tandem with Matif wheat, which also closed lower. After breaking support yesterday at the 50-day moving average, the September Paris contract closed below that level again today. Next support is about six euros lower at the 200-day moving average. This does not bode well for supporting the US market.
  • The US Dollar Index reached fresh near-term highs today at the 105.80 area. This is the highest level seen since the beginning of May, and this is putting pressure on the grain complex and wheat in particular. Harvest pressure is also limiting upside potential with progress ahead of the average pace and HRW yields coming in better than expected so far.
  • To add to bearish pressure, Ukraine’s ag minister is said to have increased their estimate of 2024 wheat production to 21 mmt. This is 1.5 mmt above the USDA’s estimate, and also goes against the USDA lowering their estimate to 19.5 mmt on this week’s report. Additionally, the Ukraine ag ministry is anticipating exports will hit 15 mmt vs the USDA’s guess of 13 mmt.
  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat planting has reached 46% complete, up 20% from the previous week. Additionally, the Rosario Grain Exchange has pegged Argentina’s wheat crop at 21 mmt, exceeding the USDA estimate of 17.5 mmt.
  • Drought in China may result in a lower grain output, and ultimately more imports. In the marketing year through June 2025, Chinese wheat production is expected to fall to 134 mmt, a reduction of 1.24%. In addition to the dry weather, the high temperatures may hurt yields in the northern region.
  • Recent rains have improved the outlook for grain production in western Australia. According to the Grains Industry of Western Australia, their estimate of 2024 planted wheat area has increased to 5 million hectares from a May estimate of 4.7 million hectares.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the volatility in the wheat market, we recently recommended buying July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts to provide downside coverage on the 2025 crop. Moving forward we are targeting the price of 68 cents (double the original approximate cost) in the July 620 puts to exit half of the original position, leaving the balance to continue providing downside coverage with a net neutral cost should the market move higher. To take further action, our primary Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 750 – 780 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 750 – 780. If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 750 – 780 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, the recent breakout above resistance from the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the highs from last summer.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Given the volatility in the wheat market, we recently recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to provide downside coverage on the 2025 crop. Moving forward we are targeting the value of 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) in those July 620 puts to exit half of the original position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost should the market move higher. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 780 – 810 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 663. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 663 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 780 – 810.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 663, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 780 – 861 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, the recent rally above resistance from last winter’s highs suggests there is potential for an extended rally toward summer 2023 highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Given the volatility in the wheat market, we recently recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to provide downside coverage for the 2025 crop due to their greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat. Moving forward, we will target a value of 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) in the July 620 puts to exit half of the original position, leaving the remainder to continue providing downside coverage with a net neutral cost if the market moves higher. Grain Market Insider may also start considering the first sales targets after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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6-13 End of Day: Corn and Beans Higher on Incoming Heat

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Well above normal temperatures and limited chances for precipitation forecast for much of the central and eastern Corn Belt over the next two weeks helped support corn futures on Thursday.
  • Strong weekly export sales, another daily flash sale and weather worries for the US all helped to push soybeans higher on Thursday. Soybean meal futures were higher on the day while bean oil futures were higher in the front months but lower in the deferred.
  • A surge higher in the US Dollar as well as weakness in European wheat futures kept a lid on US wheat futures today. July CBOT wheat closed higher on the day while KC and Spring wheat futures closed lower.
  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast and updated US 8–14-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a portion of their net short position, their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as we transition into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, weather is still a dominant feature, and seasonal tendencies remain positive.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed our Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although the technical picture could look better, weather remains a dominant factor and could still move prices back higher if conditions deteriorate. Therefore, we are currently targeting the 480 – 520 range versus July ’24 to make what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished with modest gains on Thursday as the row crops, corn and soybeans, saw good buying strength. The lack of new bearish news on Wednesday’s USDA report, and some potential weather issues triggered a short covering rally.
  • Wednesday’s USDA report brought little change from the May report. Speculative positions that were making bearish beats for the report may have lifted positions during the trade on Thursday.
  • China’s major corn producing regions are turning dry according to news sources. China is early in the calendar year for their corn crop, but the market may be building some weather premium in anticipation of more potential corn export business. China is the world’s second largest corn producer after the United States.
  • Weekly corn export sales for corn have stayed supportive of price. Last week, U.S. exporters posted new sales of 1.056 MMT (41.6 mb) of old crop sales and 69,500 MT (2.7 mb) of new crop sales. This was within market expectations, but firm for this time of year as U.S. corn stays competitive on the export market. Total corn sales commitments have reached 2.060 bb in 2023-24, up 36% from a year ago.
  • Weather models are predicting above normal temperatures to move into the Corn Belt into late June and early July. The key will be precipitation, which early indications are for the rainfall to stay active in the western and northern Corn Belt, but the eastern Corn Belt is looking to turn drier.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After rallying out of its previous congestion range in early May on planting concerns, the soybean market remained rangebound, capped overhead by resistance around 1250 with support below the market near 1200 for much of May. Now in June, soybean prices have broken underlying support and look poised to test the recent lows which sit near the 1150 level on the July chart. With much of the growing season in front of the market, a weather-related issue or surge in currently poor demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1320 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher following yesterday’s neutral to slightly bearish WASDE report. Trade is likely reacting to good export sales this morning along with a flash sale reported to unknown destinations. The hot and dry forecast for June likely contributed to today’s gains as well, but many areas will welcome the dry conditions after so much rain. Both soybean meal and oil closed higher today, but meal led the way up.
  • Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 13.9 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.1 mb for 24/25, and China was the number one buyer. This was up 99% from the previous week and 42% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments of 7.9 mb were below the 13.2 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations for shipments were to the Netherlands, Mexico, and Indonesia.
  • This morning, Private exporters reported sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
  • In yesterday’s WASDE report, trade was looking for a decrease in Brazilian production and got one, although it was very small. Brazilian soybean production was only lowered by 1 mmt to 153 mmt. This morning, CONAB released its estimate for soybean production at 147.3 mmt. It is interesting that there is still a nearly 6 mmt discrepancy between the USDA and CONAB even though the crop is almost completely harvested.

Above: The soybean market appears to be holding support around the 1175 area, with further support down towards 1146. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area on their way toward recent highs near 1260.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After showing some signs of recovery earlier today, wheat ultimately closed lower across the board, with the exception of July, September, and December Chicago. US wheat may have been a follower of Matif wheat futures; the front month September contract broke 50 day moving average support today for the first time since late March. In addition, the US Dollar Index had a strong recovery that pressured wheat, as it nearly gained back the loss from yesterday.
  • Scattered showers in parts of southern Russia and eastern Ukraine may bring relief to drought-stricken areas, and this may also account for some of today’s weakness as well. However, this does not change the fact that the USDA reduced their estimate of Russian wheat production by 5 mmt on yesterday’s report.  
  • The USDA reported an increase of 8.2 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.8 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 9.6 mb fell below the 15.4 mb pace needed per week to reach the 24/25 export goal of 800 mb. Commitments for 24/25 now have reached 178 mb which is up 22% from a year ago.
  • Strategie Grains lowered their estimate of the European Union soft wheat crop to 121.8 mmt, which was a reduction of 1.7 mmt from a month ago. France is expected to see the largest decline. Furthermore, they lowered their projection of the Russian wheat crop from 89.9 mmt down to a range of 78-80 mmt, a quite significant drop.
  • According to the USDA as of June 11, an estimated 16% of US winter wheat acres are in drought. This is a decline from 21% a week ago. Additionally, only 3% of the spring wheat area is said to be in drought, which is unchanged from the week prior.
  • From a technical standpoint, all three US classes of wheat have become very oversold after the recent slide in price. This could indicate that a bottom is near. However, it is important to keep in mind that it is possible for a commodity to become and remain oversold for quite some time during a strong downtrend.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts on a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop for approximately 33 cents plus commission and fees. The 706 support level in July ‘25 Chicago wheat futures has been broken. The market closing below 706 now paints a very uncertain picture for the overall direction of the market. The upside breakout in late May suggested that the macro trend had turned higher for wheat, with an overall higher trend possible into next year. If the overall macro trend was indeed up, we expected 706 support to hold. Therefore, this break of support raises the question of whether the upside breakout in late May was a false breakout or not. Given the market’s higher volatility and uncertain global picture, we want to maintain the July ’25 call options that are in place for the 2024 crop, and now add July ’25 put options for downside coverage on the 2025 crop. Adding put options now creates a “Strangle” option strategy, which is comprised of long calls and long puts in the same option month. This strategy is beneficial when market direction becomes uncertain, yet the expectation is for a future large move. From the current price level, if the macro trend is indeed up a move to 800+ looks possible on the topside, and if the macro trend is down, then a move back to 550 or lower looks possible on the downside.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, the recent breakout above resistance from the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the highs from last summer.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Given the volatility in the wheat market, we recently recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to provide downside coverage on the 2025 crop. Moving forward we are targeting the value of 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) in those July 620 puts to exit half of the original position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost should the market move higher. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 780 – 810 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 663. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 663 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 780 – 810.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 663, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 780 – 861 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, the recent rally above resistance from last winter’s highs suggests there is potential for an extended rally toward summer 2023 highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Given the volatility in the wheat market, we recently recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to provide downside coverage for the 2025 crop due to their greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat. Moving forward, we will target a value of 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) in the July 620 puts to exit half of the original position, leaving the remainder to continue providing downside coverage with a net neutral cost if the market moves higher. Grain Market Insider may also start considering the first sales targets after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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6-12 End of Day: Markets Close Mixed Following Uneventful WASDE Report

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Following a USDA report that saw few changes, the corn market held nearby support to rally into the close, settling above the 50-day moving average for the first time this month.
  • Another 3.9 mb flash sale of soybeans to China lent support to July soybeans while the deferred contracts slid lower on a relatively neutral USDA report in anticipation of a large upcoming crop. Bull spreading was also noted in soybean meal, which saw July meal settle in the green versus red for the deferred contracts. While soybean oil closed with modest gains following higher Malaysian palm oil.
  • A neutral to bearish USDA report, lower Paris milling wheat, and continued harvest pressure contributed to the reversal from yesterday’s higher trade with lower closes across the wheat complex.
  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast and updated US 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a portion of their net short position, their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as we transition into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, weather is still a dominant feature, and seasonal tendencies remain positive.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed our Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although the technical picture could look better, weather remains a dominant factor and could still move prices back higher if conditions deteriorate. Therefore, we are currently targeting the 480 – 520 range versus July ’24 to make what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your anticipated 2025 corn production. We had been targeting a fill of the price gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the Dec ’25 futures to recommend making the first sale for the 2025 crop. When looking at this target area, we also set a calendar deadline which it needed to be hit by, as we know we need to utilize the opportunities the growing season presents to get early sales on the books. The deadline we set was by the June 4 close. If Dec ’25 did not fill that gap by that day’s close, then we would proceed with making a sales recommendation at the going market price. This Plan A (upside) / Plan B (calendar deadline) duo looks to capitalize on rally opportunities, while simultaneously making sure bushels get sold in case the market falls short of upside target areas. Therefore, Plan B has officially triggered so we are recommending today to get started with selling a portion of your 2025 production on an HTA contract so basis can be set at a later, more advantageous time. Grain Market Insider will likely have two more recommendations over the course of this growing season to get additional sales made for the 2025 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures trended higher after Wednesday’s USDA report to finish with modest gains. The corn market has been acting independently the past couple of sessions despite moves in both the soybean and wheat markets. The lack of any real news from the USDA allowed the corn market to see some buying strength.
  • The USDA report saw little changes in the corn balance sheets for the US or globally. The USDA left the US supply/demand tables unchanged from the month of May. In South American productions, the USDA left both Brazil and Argentina production unchanged from last month.
  • With the report now past the market, the focus turns back to the weather. Weather models are predicting above normal temperatures to move into the Corn Belt into late June and early July. The key will be precipitation, which early indications are for the rainfall to stay active into next week with the increased temps. Conditions are likely favorable for crop growth overall.
  • Corn demand has remained firm at the front end of the market. The USDA will release the next round of export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for new crop sales to range from 700,000 – 1.2 mmt for old crop, and up to 200,000 mt for new.  Last week old crop sales totaled 1.18 mmt of corn.
  • Weekly ethanol production dropped to 1.023 million barrels/day last week, down nearly 50 million barrels/day from last week, but up less than 1% from last year. A total of 102.5 mb of corn was used in the production process last week, which slipped below the pace needed to reach USDA targets.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After rallying out of its previous congestion range in early May on planting concerns, the soybean market remained rangebound, capped overhead by resistance around 1250 with support below the market near 1200 for much of May. Now in June, soybean prices have broken underlying support and look poised to test the recent lows which sit near the 1150 level on the July chart. With much of the growing season in front of the market, a weather-related issue or surge in currently poor demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1320 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after a relatively neutral WASDE report which held few changes. The majority of losses were in the deferred months as trade anticipates a large crop. July soybeans were only down by 3/4 of a cent. Soybean meal was mixed with slight gains in the front month and lower prices in the deferred contracts, and soybean oil was higher.
  • The highlights of today’s WASDE report were that the USDA increased US soybean ending stocks for 24/25 to 455 mb from 445 mb last month which was expected. The increase in stocks came from a drop in expected crush demand. Brazilian production was lowered slightly by 1 mmt to 153 mmt but was still above average range trade estimates. Argentinian production was unchanged at 50 mmt.
  • With the June WASDE report now out of the way, trade will focus on weather going forward. The forecast is mainly dry, which is needed in many areas that have been getting significant amounts of rain. The La Nina weather pattern is expected to affect the US this summer which could cause heat and dryness to continue into July and August which would be supportive to prices if verified.
  • China purchased an additional 106,000 mt (3.9 mb) of soybeans in a flash sale released by the USDA.  This was the third sale in the past four sessions of soybeans to China, and the best June streak of purchases by China dating back to 2019.

Above: The soybean market appears to be holding support around the 1175 area, with further support down towards 1146. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area on their way toward recent highs near 1260.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with double-digit losses in all three US futures classes today. A sharply lower close for Matif wheat, a lack of fresh friendly news, and no major surprises in the monthly WASDE report were all contributing factors in today’s weakness.
  • Today’s USDA report was about as neutral as can be, from a big picture perspective. The wheat data, in particular, had a slightly negative bias with average yield increased to 49.4 bpa, compared to 48.9 bpa last month. This led to a 17 mb production estimate increase from 1.858 bb in the May report, to 1.875 bb today. Of that total, 1.295 bb is winter wheat, compared to an estimate of 1.278 bb last month.
  • US 23/24 wheat carryout was pegged today at 688 mb, unchanged from May, and less than the average trade guess of 690 mb. For 24/25, carryout came in at 758 mb, compared with 766 mb in May, and 782 mb expected. Global 23/24 wheat ending stocks saw an increase from last month of 1.8 mmt to 259.6 mmt, while 24/25 decreased by 1.3 mmt to 252.3 mmt.
  • Today the USDA did cut their estimate of Russian wheat production by 5 mmt to 83 mmt. From a glass half full viewpoint this is supportive. But with most other estimates around 80 mmt, the cut was perhaps not as much as some were anticipating.
  • CPI data this morning was friendly, at an unchanged level month over month. This was better than expected, as the trade was looking for a 0.1% increase. This sent the US Dollar Index tumbling, which may provide more long-term support to wheat if the trend remains lower. But for the time being, harvest pressure may limit upside potential.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts on a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop for approximately 33 cents plus commission and fees. The 706 support level in July ‘25 Chicago wheat futures has been broken. The market closing below 706 now paints a very uncertain picture for the overall direction of the market. The upside breakout in late May suggested that the macro trend had turned higher for wheat, with an overall higher trend possible into next year. If the overall macro trend was indeed up, we expected 706 support to hold. Therefore, this break of support raises the question of whether the upside breakout in late May was a false breakout or not. Given the market’s higher volatility and uncertain global picture, we want to maintain the July ’25 call options that are in place for the 2024 crop, and now add July ’25 put options for downside coverage on the 2025 crop. Adding put options now creates a “Strangle” option strategy, which is comprised of long calls and long puts in the same option month. This strategy is beneficial when market direction becomes uncertain, yet the expectation is for a future large move. From the current price level, if the macro trend is indeed up a move to 800+ looks possible on the topside, and if the macro trend is down, then a move back to 550 or lower looks possible on the downside.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, the recent breakout above resistance from the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the highs from last summer.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Given the volatility in the wheat market, we recently recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to provide downside coverage on the 2025 crop. Moving forward we are targeting the value of 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) in those July 620 puts to exit half of the original position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost should the market move higher. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 780 – 810 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 663. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 663 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 780 – 810.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 663, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 780 – 861 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, the recent rally above resistance from last winter’s highs suggests there is potential for an extended rally toward summer 2023 highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Given the volatility in the wheat market, we recently recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to provide downside coverage for the 2025 crop due to their greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat. Moving forward, we will target a value of 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) in the July 620 puts to exit half of the original position, leaving the remainder to continue providing downside coverage with a net neutral cost if the market moves higher. Grain Market Insider may also start considering the first sales targets after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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6-11 End of Day: Grains Close Mixed Ahead of Tomorrow’s WASDE Report

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After higher trade early in the session and peaking at midday, the corn market failed to find new buyers and drifted lower into the close with carryover weakness from neighboring soybeans.
  • Despite the early strength in the soybean market from a flash sale to China for old crop soybeans, the market faded lower into the close. Weakness from lower soybean meal prices and the highest good to excellent ratings since 2018 weighed on the market.
  • The wheat complex closed higher across all three classes with July Chicago breaking its 9-session losing streak. The rebound came from oversold conditions which provided additional support along with higher Matif wheat, and remarks from the head of Russia’s grain union, stating that upwards of 30% of Russia’s winter wheat crop may have been damaged by frost in May.
  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast and updated US 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a portion of their net short position, their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as we transition into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, weather is still a dominant feature, and seasonal tendencies remain positive.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed our Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although the technical picture could look better, weather remains a dominant factor and could still move prices back higher if conditions deteriorate. Therefore, we are currently targeting the 480 – 520 range versus July ’24 to make what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your anticipated 2025 corn production. We had been targeting a fill of the price gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the Dec ’25 futures to recommend making the first sale for the 2025 crop. When looking at this target area, we also set a calendar deadline which it needed to be hit by, as we know we need to utilize the opportunities the growing season presents to get early sales on the books. The deadline we set was by the June 4 close. If Dec ’25 did not fill that gap by that day’s close, then we would proceed with making a sales recommendation at the going market price. This Plan A (upside) / Plan B (calendar deadline) duo looks to capitalize on rally opportunities, while simultaneously making sure bushels get sold in case the market falls short of upside target areas. Therefore, Plan B has officially triggered so we are recommending today to get started with selling a portion of your 2025 production on an HTA contract so basis can be set at a later, more advantageous time. Grain Market Insider will likely have two more recommendations over the course of this growing season to get additional sales made for the 2025 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures faded into the end of the session and finished the day with marginal losses as selling pressure in the row crops limited the market. The corn market failed to find any traction despite a strong day of buying in the wheat complex.
  • The USDA released the latest Crop Progress report on Monday afternoon. Corn planting advanced another 4% to 95% complete, in line with 5-year averages. Early corn crop conditions slipped 1% to 74% good/excellent. This is the strongest rating since 2020 and 13% higher than last year for this time frame.
  • In currency markets, the Brazilian Real has moved to its lowest point versus the US Dollar in over a year and a half. The break by the real has triggered selling of corn from the Brazilian producer, limiting the markets upside potential.
  • The USDA will release the June Crop Production report on Wednesday at 11:00 CST. Expectations are for the balance sheet to see light reductions in old and new crop corn carryout on Wednesday. The market will be looking for any adjustments in the South American corn production estimates and any potential changes in corn demand on the report.
  • Weather models are predicting above normal temperatures to move into the Corn Belt into late June. Early indications are for the heat to be joined by an active rainfall pattern. The key for the market will be the extent of the heat and does the moisture stays in the forecast going into July. After tomorrow’s report, the market focus will shift back to the weather.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After rallying out of its previous congestion range in early May on planting concerns, the soybean market has been rangebound, capped overhead by resistance around 1250 with support below the market near 1200 for much of May. To start June, soybean prices have broken underlying support and look poised to test the recent lows which sit near the 1150 level on the July chart. With much of the growing season in front of the market a weather-related issue or surge in currently poor demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1320 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after fading from higher prices overnight, and were mainly driven down by soybean meal and yesterday’s Crop Progress report which showed the highest initial good to excellent ratings since 2018. July soybean meal lost 2.36% to $359.30, and soybean oil was mixed with July and August slightly higher, and the deferred contracts lower.
  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report said that 87% of the soybean crop has been planted, which was slightly below the trade guess of 89% and below last year’s pace of 95%. It also compares to 78% a week ago and the 5-year average of 84%. 70% of the crop has emerged which compares to 83% a year ago, and the crop received its first rating of the year at 72% good to excellent which compares to 59% a year ago.
  • Tomorrow, the USDA will release its WASDE report, and although no large changes are expected, 24/25 ending stocks are expected to increase slightly by 5 mb to 455 mb which would be the highest in five years if realized. The other bigger changes could see Brazilian production lowered due to the flooding in Rio Grande do Sul, but on the bearish side, exports may be revised lower.
  • Yesterday’s Export Inspections report was relatively soft with soybean inspections totaling 8.5 mb for the week ending June 6. Total inspections for 23/24 now total 1.490 billion bushels which is down 17% from the previous year. With export sales poor in general, there is a possibility that the USDA will lower exports in tomorrow’s WASDE report.

Above: Following the June 3 close below the 100-day moving average, July soybeans pierced the 1192 – 1146 support area. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area on their way toward recent highs near 1260.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed higher in all three US classes, breaking the nine consecutive session losing streak for July Chicago. This may be, in part, a technical correction from oversold conditions. Furthermore, July Chicago wheat tested the 100-day moving average (604 level), finding support there before rebounding to a sharply higher close. Matif wheat futures also offered a boost with their strength today; the front month September gained 7.5 euros, closing at 246.50.
  • Ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report, the trade is anticipating US 24/25 all wheat production to be 1.887 bb, up from 1.858 bb in May. Additionally, the average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 wheat carryout is 690 mb, slightly higher than May’s 688 mb. For 24/25, the estimate is 782 mb compared to 766 mb in May.
  • In yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, winter wheat was rated 47% good to excellent, compared with 49% last week and 38% last year. 12% of that crop is said to be harvested versus 6% on average. As far as spring wheat, the crop is 98% planted, 87% emerged, and is rated 72% good to excellent, as compared to 74% last week but well above the 60% rating from last year.
  • According to the head of Russia’s grain union, between 15-30% of their winter grain was affected by frost damage in May. This is said to be higher than the estimate by the Russian ag minister and may have contributed to today’s strength. In related news, Russia’s ag minister said that they will shift their export focus to the Middle East and North Africa, while also strengthening relations with India and China.
  • Domestic wheat prices in Brazil are said to have significantly increased in early June, due to a lack of supply in their offseason. According to Secex data, Brazil imported 657,130 mt of wheat in May, representing a 44.6% increase from the previous month, and up 131.8% from May 2023.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts on a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop for approximately 33 cents plus commission and fees. The 706 support level in July ‘25 Chicago wheat futures has been broken. The market closing below 706 now paints a very uncertain picture for the overall direction of the market. The upside breakout in late May suggested that the macro trend had turned higher for wheat, with an overall higher trend possible into next year. If the overall macro trend was indeed up, we expected 706 support to hold. Therefore, this break of support raises the question of whether the upside breakout in late May was a false breakout or not. Given the market’s higher volatility and uncertain global picture, we want to maintain the July ’25 call options that are in place for the 2024 crop, and now add July ’25 put options for downside coverage on the 2025 crop. Adding put options now creates a “Strangle” option strategy, which is comprised of long calls and long puts in the same option month. This strategy is beneficial when market direction becomes uncertain, yet the expectation is for a future large move. From the current price level, if the macro trend is indeed up a move to 800+ looks possible on the topside, and if the macro trend is down, then a move back to 550 or lower looks possible on the downside.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, the recent breakout above resistance from the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the highs from last summer.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop for approximately 30 cents plus commission and fees. The 706 support level in July ‘25 KC wheat futures has been broken. The market closing below 706 now paints a very uncertain picture for the overall direction of the market. The upside breakout in late May suggested that the macro trend had turned higher for wheat, with an overall higher trend possible into next year. If the overall macro trend was indeed up, we expected 706 support to hold. Therefore, this break of support raises the question of whether the upside breakout in late May was a false breakout or not. Given the market’s higher volatility and uncertain global picture, we want to maintain the July ’25 call options that are in place for the 2024 crop, and now add July ’25 put options for downside coverage on the 2025 crop. Adding put options now creates a “Strangle” option strategy, which is comprised of long calls and long puts in the same option month. This strategy is beneficial when market direction becomes uncertain, yet the expectation is for a future large move. From the current price level, if the macro trend is indeed up, a move to 800+ looks possible on the topside, and if the macro trend is down, then a move back to 550 or lower looks possible on the downside.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: 2024/25 Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, the recent rally above resistance from last winter’s highs suggests there is potential for an extended rally toward summer 2023 highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 spring wheat crop. Since peaking in May, the market has retraced just over 50% of the rally that began in late April, suggesting that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved and prices may trend lower. Considering this, along with the fact that prices remain elevated, Grain Market Insider is implementing a Plan B Stop strategy and recommending additional sales for the 2024 HRS crop.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2025 Spring wheat crop for approximately 30 cents plus commission and fees. The 706 support level in July ‘25 KC wheat futures has been broken. The market closing below 706 now paints a very uncertain picture for the overall direction of the market. The upside breakout in late May suggested that the macro trend had turned higher for wheat, with an overall higher trend possible into next year. If the overall macro trend was indeed up, we expected 706 support to hold. Therefore, this break of support raises the question of whether the upside breakout in late May was a false breakout or not. Given the market’s higher volatility and uncertain global picture, we want to maintain the July ’25 call options that are in place for the 2024 crop, and now add July ’25 put options for downside coverage on the 2025 crop. Adding put options now, creates a “Strangle” option strategy, which is comprised of long calls and long puts in the same option month. This strategy is beneficial when market direction becomes uncertain, yet the expectation is for a future large move. From the current price level, if the macro trend is indeed up, a move to 800+ looks possible on the topside, and if the macro trend is down, then a move back to 550 or lower looks possible on the downside. The KC wheat market has a high correlation with Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, and Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ’25 KC Wheat puts in lieu of Minneapolis puts due to the significantly higher liquidity levels in the KC wheat market versus that of the Minneapolis wheat market.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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6-10 End of Day: Markets Sharply Mixed to Begin the Week

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite the strong selloff in the wheat market, the corn market held its own and closed with minor gains as traders begin to square positions ahead of Wednesday’s USDA WASDE report and on a potentially hot and dry forecast.
  • Although soybean export inspections came in weak, healthy gains in soybean meal helped to support soybeans throughout the day, with bull spreading noted between old crop and new crop.
  • The wheat complex continued to slide with sharp double-digit losses across all three classes. Contributing to the negativity were lower Russian export values, decreased Matif wheat prices, and Turkey’s ban on wheat imports.
  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast and updated US 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a portion of their net short position, their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as we transition into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, weather is still a dominant feature, and seasonal tendencies remain positive.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed our Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although the technical picture could look better, weather remains a dominant factor and could still move prices back higher if conditions deteriorate. Therefore, we are currently targeting the 480 – 520 range versus July ’24 to make what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your anticipated 2025 corn production. We had been targeting a fill of the price gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the Dec ’25 futures to recommend making the first sale for the 2025 crop. When looking at this target area, we also set a calendar deadline which it needed to be hit by, as we know we need to utilize the opportunities the growing season presents to get early sales on the books. The deadline we set was by the June 4 close. If Dec ’25 did not fill that gap by that day’s close, then we would proceed with making a sales recommendation at the going market price. This Plan A (upside) / Plan B (calendar deadline) duo looks to capitalize on rally opportunities, while simultaneously making sure bushels get sold in case the market falls short of upside target areas. Therefore, Plan B has officially triggered so we are recommending today to get started with selling a portion of your 2025 production on an HTA contract so basis can be set at a later, more advantageous time. Grain Market Insider will likely have two more recommendations over the course of this growing season to get additional sales made for the 2025 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished with marginal gains to start the week as the market held firm against a strong selloff in wheat and likely was squaring positions before Wednesday’s USDA WASDE report and the potential for a hot forecast.
  • Weather models are predicting above normal temperatures to move into the Corn Belt into late June. Early indications are for the heat to be joined by an active rainfall pattern. The key for the market will be the extent of the heat and does the moisture stay in the forecast going into July.
  • Managed money has been extending their short position in the corn market. On Friday’s Commitment of Traders report, funds were net sellers of 79,229 corn contracts to move their net short positions to 212,706 short positions. 
  • The USDA will release the latest Crop Progress report this afternoon. Expectations are for corn planting to reach 96% complete. The focus will be crop conditions, as the corn crop is expected to be 74% good/excellent, down 1% from last week.
  • Weekly export inspections remain strong for US corn. Last week, US exporters shipped 52.7 mb (1.340 mmt) of corn, down slightly from the prior week. Total inspections for the marketing year have reached 1.540 billion bushels, up 26% from last year.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 79,229 contracts between May 29 – June 4, bringing their total position to a net short 212,706 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After rallying out of its previous congestion range in early May on planting concerns, the soybean market has been rangebound, capped overhead by resistance around 1250 with support below the market near 1200 for much of May. To start June, soybean prices have broken underlying support and look poised to test the recent lows which sit near the 1150 level on the July chart. With much of the growing season in front of the market a weather-related issue or surge in currently poor demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 soybean crop. Since peaking in May, the market has broken through 100-day moving average support (1180-81) and retraced over 50% back towards the April low. This suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved and prices could trend lower. Considering this and the currently weak demand picture, Grain Market Insider is implementing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend beginning to market your 2024 soybean crop by making sales at these still elevated prices.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher to start the week but were heavily bull spread with the July contract gaining 9 cents, while the November contract gained only one cent, likely indicating that the trade is expecting a large upcoming soybean crop. Soybean meal led the complex higher today with the July contract gaining 2.02%, while soybean oil was mixed with gains in the two front months but losses in the deferred contracts.
  • This week’s Export Inspections report was relatively soft with soybean inspections totaling 8.5 mb for the week ending June 6. Total inspections for 23/24 now total 1.490 billion bushels which is down 17% from the previous year. With export sales poor in general, there is a possibility that the USDA will lower exports in Wednesday’s WASDE report.
  • Today, the USDA will release its first crop ratings for soybeans in the Crop Progress report. Trade estimates have an average guess of 72% good to excellent with the high end of guesses at 75%. 89% of the crop is expected to be planted, which would compare to 78% last week.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as aggressive sellers in the soy complex adding 45,523 contracts to their short position as of June 4, leaving them net short 59,741 contracts. Funds were heavy sellers across the entire ag complex last week.

Above: Following the June 3 close below the 100-day moving average, July soybeans pierced the 1192 – 1146 support area. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area on their way toward recent highs near 1260.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 49,523 contracts between May 29 – June 4, bringing their total position to a net short 59,741 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed sharply lower across all three US classes. Continued pressure is coming from Paris milling wheat futures, which have closed lower for the sixth consecutive session. The recent sharp rise in the US Dollar Index is also offering weakness, as is the recent news that Turkey will ban wheat imports until October 15. Additionally, Russian FOB export values are said to be dropping, ending last week at $242 per mt compared with $248 the week prior. 
  • Weekly wheat inspections as of June 6 totaled 12.9 million bushels, with 11 million bushels for the 24/25 season. This puts 24/25 inspections down 7% from last year. However, the USDA estimates that 24/25 wheat exports will increase by 8% from the previous year to 775 mb.
  • Friday’s CFTC data indicated that, as of last Tuesday, managed funds added only 8,000 contracts to their net short in the wheat complex, indicating that the recent selloff was likely not driven by fund selling.
  • This Wednesday will feature the monthly USDA Supply and Demand report. There is anticipation that they will lower the Russian crop to between 82-84 mmt, compared with 88 mmt a month ago. Additionally, Sov Econ reduced their estimate of the Russian crop to 80.7 mmt last week, down significantly from their early season estimate of 94 mmt.
  • Last year, Australia’s wheat crop totaled 26 mmt. But expectations are for an increase to production this year, with Rabobank estimating a 27.4 mmt harvest. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics is even higher, pegging the crop at 29.1 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts on a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop for approximately 33 cents plus commission and fees. The 706 support level in July ‘25 Chicago wheat futures has been broken. The market closing below 706 now paints a very uncertain picture for the overall direction of the market. The upside breakout in late May suggested that the macro trend had turned higher for wheat, with an overall higher trend possible into next year. If the overall macro trend was indeed up, we expected 706 support to hold. Therefore, this break of support raises the question of whether the upside breakout in late May was a false breakout or not. Given the market’s higher volatility and uncertain global picture, we want to maintain the July ’25 call options that are in place for the 2024 crop, and now add July ’25 put options for downside coverage on the 2025 crop. Adding put options now creates a “Strangle” option strategy, which is comprised of long calls and long puts in the same option month. This strategy is beneficial when market direction becomes uncertain, yet the expectation is for a future large move. From the current price level, if the macro trend is indeed up a move to 800+ looks possible on the topside, and if the macro trend is down, then a move back to 550 or lower looks possible on the downside.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,815 contracts between May 29 – June 4, bringing their total position to a net short 52,741 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, the recent breakout above resistance from the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the highs from last summer.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 820 – 840 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop for approximately 30 cents plus commission and fees. The 706 support level in July ‘25 KC wheat futures has been broken. The market closing below 706 now paints a very uncertain picture for the overall direction of the market. The upside breakout in late May suggested that the macro trend had turned higher for wheat, with an overall higher trend possible into next year. If the overall macro trend was indeed up, we expected 706 support to hold. Therefore, this break of support raises the question of whether the upside breakout in late May was a false breakout or not. Given the market’s higher volatility and uncertain global picture, we want to maintain the July ’25 call options that are in place for the 2024 crop, and now add July ’25 put options for downside coverage on the 2025 crop. Adding put options now creates a “Strangle” option strategy, which is comprised of long calls and long puts in the same option month. This strategy is beneficial when market direction becomes uncertain, yet the expectation is for a future large move. From the current price level, if the macro trend is indeed up, a move to 800+ looks possible on the topside, and if the macro trend is down, then a move back to 550 or lower looks possible on the downside.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,790 contracts between May 29 – June 4, bringing their total position to a net short 13,538 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, the recent rally above resistance from last winter’s highs suggests there is potential for an extended rally toward summer 2023 highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 spring wheat crop. Since peaking in May, the market has retraced just over 50% of the rally that began in late April, suggesting that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved and prices may trend lower. Considering this, along with the fact that prices remain elevated, Grain Market Insider is implementing a Plan B Stop strategy and recommending additional sales for the 2024 HRS crop.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2025 Spring wheat crop for approximately 30 cents plus commission and fees. The 706 support level in July ‘25 KC wheat futures has been broken. The market closing below 706 now paints a very uncertain picture for the overall direction of the market. The upside breakout in late May suggested that the macro trend had turned higher for wheat, with an overall higher trend possible into next year. If the overall macro trend was indeed up, we expected 706 support to hold. Therefore, this break of support raises the question of whether the upside breakout in late May was a false breakout or not. Given the market’s higher volatility and uncertain global picture, we want to maintain the July ’25 call options that are in place for the 2024 crop, and now add July ’25 put options for downside coverage on the 2025 crop. Adding put options now, creates a “Strangle” option strategy, which is comprised of long calls and long puts in the same option month. This strategy is beneficial when market direction becomes uncertain, yet the expectation is for a future large move. From the current price level, if the macro trend is indeed up, a move to 800+ looks possible on the topside, and if the macro trend is down, then a move back to 550 or lower looks possible on the downside. The KC wheat market has a high correlation with Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, and Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ’25 KC Wheat puts in lieu of Minneapolis puts due to the significantly higher liquidity levels in the KC wheat market versus that of the Minneapolis wheat market.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,992 contracts between May 29 – June 4, bringing their total position to a net long 7,732 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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6-7 End of Day: Sellers Return After Thursday’s Short Covering Rally

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Sellers returned to the corn market following yesterday’s strong gains on news of Brazil’s new tax plan. Although sharp losses in the wheat complex and soybeans added pressure to prices, corn rallied off the lows to hold small gains for the week.
  • Yesterday’s short covering rally was put on the back burner as sellers returned to the soybean complex. July beans gave up most of yesterday’s gains as the market focused on the possibility of more planted soybean acres and planting progress that is ahead of the 5-year average.
  • The wheat complex ended the week by closing lower on the day for the 8th consecutive day in Chicago and Minneapolis, while KC saw its 7th lower close in 8 sessions. Harvest pressure, a sharply higher US dollar and sharply lower Matif wheat were contributing factors.
  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast and updated US 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a portion of their net short position, their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as we transition into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, weather is still a dominant feature, and seasonal tendencies remain positive.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed our Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although the technical picture could look better, weather remains a dominant factor and could still move prices back higher if conditions deteriorate. Therefore, we are currently targeting the 480 – 520 range versus July ’24 to make what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your anticipated 2025 corn production. We had been targeting a fill of the price gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the Dec ’25 futures to recommend making the first sale for the 2025 crop. When looking at this target area, we also set a calendar deadline which it needed to be hit by, as we know we need to utilize the opportunities the growing season presents to get early sales on the books. The deadline we set was by the June 4 close. If Dec ’25 did not fill that gap by that day’s close, then we would proceed with making a sales recommendation at the going market price. This Plan A (upside) / Plan B (calendar deadline) duo looks to capitalize on rally opportunities, while simultaneously making sure bushels get sold in case the market falls short of upside target areas. Therefore, Plan B has officially triggered so we are recommending today to get started with selling a portion of your 2025 production on an HTA contract so basis can be set at a later, more advantageous time. Grain Market Insider will likely have two more recommendations over the course of this growing season to get additional sales made for the 2025 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Sellers returned to the grain markets to end the week, giving back a portion of Thursday’s gains. The corn market was pressured by double-digit losses in the wheat and soybean markets during the day. For the week, July corn futures managed a 2 ½ cent gain and December futures only gained ¼ of a cent.
  • The jump in prices on Thursday was based on short covering triggered by news of Brazil’s new tax plan and its impact on agriculture producers and industry. However, this issue moved to the back burner on Friday as the market refocused on fundamentals and current overall conditions, which are favorable for supply growth.
  • On Thursday’s move higher, producers in the US, Argentina, and Brazil were more active in making cash sales for corn. The large supply of corn held by producers will likely limit the upside potential in the corn market.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange released its latest crop ratings. Currently, the Argentina corn crop is rated 51% Good/Excellent and Fair. Corn harvest is building, trending at 35% complete on a crop estimated to reach 46.5 mmt.
  • Demand for corn stayed friendly for old crop corn. For the week, ethanol production ran strong, and weekly export sales reached 46.5 mb. The near-term demand may help limit downside pressure on old crop supplies.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After rallying out of its previous congestion range in early May on planting concerns, the soybean market has been rangebound, capped overhead by resistance around 1250 with support below the market near 1200 for much of May. To start June, soybean prices have broken underlying support and look poised to test the recent lows which sit near the 1150 level on the July chart. With much of the growing season in front of the market a weather-related issue or surge in currently poor demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 soybean crop. Since peaking in May, the market has broken through 100-day moving average support (1180-81) and retraced over 50% back towards the April low. This suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved and prices could trend lower. Considering this and the currently weak demand picture, Grain Market Insider is implementing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend beginning to market your 2024 soybean crop by making sales at these still elevated prices.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower and took back a large portion of yesterday’s gains as selling pressure continued. Soybeans closed lower for 4 out of the 5 trading sessions this week as planting progress remains ahead of the average and the possibility that more soybean acres get planted increases. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.
  • For the week, July soybeans lost 25 ¾ cents at 1179 ¼, and November soybeans lost 26 ¾ cents. The July contract has faced resistance at its 100-day moving average at 1200. In soybean meal, the July contract lost $4.00 at $360.70 while soybean oil lost 1.89 cents in the July contract at 43.63 cents. Funds were heavy sellers across the soy complex this week.
  • This morning, private exporters reported sales of 104,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year. This is only the second soybean flash sale reported to China so far this year. Yesterday’s export sales were soft at 7.0 mb for 23/24 and 2.7 mb for 24/25. Lack of export demand has weighed on prices as most of the business goes to South America.
  • Yesterday’s gains likely came from a tax scheme in Brazil that has been enacted, but has yet to be passed by Congress, and increases farm taxes. As a result, many Brazilian farmers are reportedly holding onto both corn and soybeans rather than making cash sales.

Above: Following the June 3 close below the 100-day moving average, July soybeans pierced the 1192 – 1146 support area. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area on their way toward recent highs near 1260.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three wheat classes finished the week by closing lower on the day. Harvest pressure, a sharply higher US Dollar, sharply lower Matif wheat, and showers in Southern Russia were all contributing factors to today’s selling. Additionally, Reuters reported that Russia shipped 31,000 mt of wheat to Brazil for the first time from its Baltic terminal.
  • Stone X lowered its estimate of Brazil’s 24/25 wheat crop to 7.79 mmt, 3.7% below last year’s production numbers. The analyst cited reduced planted area due to the flooding in Rio Grande do Sul, with 900,000 hectares expected to be planted in the state, 200,000 less than last year.
  • In a statement from the Turkish Agriculture Ministry, Turkey, one of the world’s largest wheat buyers, announced a ban on wheat imports from June 21 until mid-October. This measure aims to protect local farmers from falling prices caused by a bumper crop and the highest stocks in 20 years. Typically, Turkey imports around 2–2.5 million metric tons from the Black Sea region during this period.
  • France, Europe’s top wheat producer, could possibly see the worst harvest since 2016 with damage to between 12% and 20% of total wheat areas due to the non-stop heavy rain that the region has seen since October, according to the president of the French grain growers’ group AGPB.
  • ABARES, Australia’s government crop forecaster, expects wheat exports to be slightly higher than last year at 20.8 mmt, due to the dry weather that has hit Western Australia, the country’s largest exporting state. This news comes despite the fact that the agency expects total wheat production to rise 12%.
  • The FAO-AMIS (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations-Ag Market Information System) in its first estimate for the 24/25 season, sees world wheat stocks totaling 306.8 mmt, with production down slightly from last year at 786.7 mmt. The organization also sees declines in the EU, UK, Ukraine, and Turkey as possibly offset by gains in the US, Canada, Australia, and India.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts on a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop for approximately 33 cents plus commission and fees. The 706 support level in July ‘25 Chicago wheat futures has been broken. The market closing below 706 now paints a very uncertain picture for the overall direction of the market. The upside breakout in late May suggested that the macro trend had turned higher for wheat, with an overall higher trend possible into next year. If the overall macro trend was indeed up, we expected 706 support to hold. Therefore, this break of support raises the question of whether the upside breakout in late May was a false breakout or not. Given the market’s higher volatility and uncertain global picture, we want to maintain the July ’25 call options that are in place for the 2024 crop, and now add July ’25 put options for downside coverage on the 2025 crop. Adding put options now creates a “Strangle” option strategy, which is comprised of long calls and long puts in the same option month. This strategy is beneficial when market direction becomes uncertain, yet the expectation is for a future large move. From the current price level, if the macro trend is indeed up a move to 800+ looks possible on the topside, and if the macro trend is down, then a move back to 550 or lower looks possible on the downside.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, the recent breakout above resistance from the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the highs from last summer.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 820 – 840 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop for approximately 30 cents plus commission and fees. The 706 support level in July ‘25 KC wheat futures has been broken. The market closing below 706 now paints a very uncertain picture for the overall direction of the market. The upside breakout in late May suggested that the macro trend had turned higher for wheat, with an overall higher trend possible into next year. If the overall macro trend was indeed up, we expected 706 support to hold. Therefore, this break of support raises the question of whether the upside breakout in late May was a false breakout or not. Given the market’s higher volatility and uncertain global picture, we want to maintain the July ’25 call options that are in place for the 2024 crop, and now add July ’25 put options for downside coverage on the 2025 crop. Adding put options now creates a “Strangle” option strategy, which is comprised of long calls and long puts in the same option month. This strategy is beneficial when market direction becomes uncertain, yet the expectation is for a future large move. From the current price level, if the macro trend is indeed up, a move to 800+ looks possible on the topside, and if the macro trend is down, then a move back to 550 or lower looks possible on the downside.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, the recent rally above resistance from last winter’s highs suggests there is potential for an extended rally toward summer 2023 highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 spring wheat crop. Since peaking in May, the market has retraced just over 50% of the rally that began in late April, suggesting that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved and prices may trend lower. Considering this, along with the fact that prices remain elevated, Grain Market Insider is implementing a Plan B Stop strategy and recommending additional sales for the 2024 HRS crop.
  • Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop for approximately 30 cents plus commission and fees. The 706 support level in July ‘25 KC wheat futures has been broken. The market closing below 706 now paints a very uncertain picture for the overall direction of the market. The upside breakout in late May suggested that the macro trend had turned higher for wheat, with an overall higher trend possible into next year. If the overall macro trend was indeed up, we expected 706 support to hold. Therefore, this break of support raises the question of whether the upside breakout in late May was a false breakout or not. Given the market’s higher volatility and uncertain global picture, we want to maintain the July ’25 call options that are in place for the 2024 crop, and now add July ’25 put options for downside coverage on the 2025 crop. Adding put options now creates a “Strangle” option strategy, which is comprised of long calls and long puts in the same option month. This strategy is beneficial when market direction becomes uncertain, yet the expectation is for a future large move. From the current price level, if the macro trend is indeed up, a move to 800+ looks possible on the topside, and if the macro trend is down, then a move back to 550 or lower looks possible on the downside.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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6-6 End of Day: Corn and Beans Break Their 7-day Losing Streak; Wheat Settles Mixed

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Short covering on oversold conditions, strong exports, and potential changes to Brazil’s tax code that could lead to increased US exports, likely led to the sharp double-digit rally in the corn market.
  • Sharp gains in soybean oil, and higher meal lent support to soybeans which closed sharply higher as traders likely covered short position following the 7-day break in prices. Like corn, additional support likely came from the potential changes to Brazil’s tax code.
  • Soybean oil traded sharply higher showing a 1.22 cent (2.8%) gain in the July contract with support coming from higher palm oil prices. Soybean oil has also become more competitive again for use as biofuel feedstock, and while US bean oil exports aren’t large, they are running 17% ahead of last year versus the USDA’s forecast of a 7% drop.  
  • Volatile two sided trade dominated the wheat complex which traded both sides of unchanged in all three classes before settling mixed. With harvest pressure and lower Matif wheat contributing to the negativity, Chicago contracts experienced the largest losses while KC held onto minor gains.
  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast and updated US Drought Monitor with classification changes from last year, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a portion of their net short position, their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as we transition into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, weather is still a dominant feature, and seasonal tendencies remain positive.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed our Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although the technical picture could look better, weather remains a dominant factor and could still move prices back higher if conditions deteriorate. Therefore, we are currently targeting the 480 – 520 range versus July ’24 to make what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your anticipated 2025 corn production. We had been targeting a fill of the price gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the Dec ’25 futures to recommend making the first sale for the 2025 crop. When looking at this target area, we also set a calendar deadline which it needed to be hit by, as we know we need to utilize the opportunities the growing season presents to get early sales on the books. The deadline we set was by the June 4 close. If Dec ’25 did not fill that gap by that day’s close, then we would proceed with making a sales recommendation at the going market price. This Plan A (upside) / Plan B (calendar deadline) duo looks to capitalize on rally opportunities, while simultaneously making sure bushels get sold in case the market falls short of upside target areas. Therefore, Plan B has officially triggered so we are recommending today to get started with selling a portion of your 2025 production on an HTA contract so basis can be set at a later, more advantageous time. Grain Market Insider will likely have two more recommendations over the course of this growing season to get additional sales made for the 2025 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market broke the 7-session selling streak with a strong close on Thursday. Strong buying in both corn and soybeans dominated the day as the oversold corn market was due for a short covering rally. Follow through from today’s price strength will be key. With today’s gains, December corn futures are now trading slightly higher on the week.
  • The row crop markets may have been responding to headline news regarding a potential tax package that has been proposed in Brazil. With this package, the Brazilian government would limit/end the tax credits over a very large number of operations, including grain trading and freight. Removal of these credits would likely increase the cost of Brazil ag commodities, possibly bringing additional demand to the US market. This is a proposed bill, but a news item that may need to be watched.
  • Weekly export sales for corn were very supportive on Thursday morning. US exporters sold 46.5 mb (1.181 mmt) of old crop corn and 4.5 mb (113,000 mt) of new crop corn last week. Total corn sales have reached 2.018 billion bushels in 23/24 and are up 34% from a year ago.
  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn this morning. Unknown destinations bought 6.0 mb (152,000 mt) for the 23/24 marketing year as US corn prices stay competitive on the global market.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After rallying out of its previous congestion range in early May on planting concerns, the soybean market has been rangebound, capped overhead by resistance around 1250 with support below the market near 1200 for much of May. To start June, soybean prices have broken underlying support and look poised to test the recent lows which sit near the 1150 level on the July chart. With much of the growing season in front of the market a weather-related issue or surge in currently poor demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 soybean crop. Since peaking in May, the market has broken through 100-day moving average support (1180-81) and retraced over 50% back towards the April low. This suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved and prices could trend lower. Considering this and the currently weak demand picture, Grain Market Insider is implementing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend beginning to market your 2024 soybean crop by making sales at these still elevated prices.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Above: Following the June 3 close below the 100-day moving average, July soybeans pierced the 1192 – 1146 support area. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area on their way toward recent highs near 1260.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex settled mixed after a volatile two-sided trade. Chicago contracts led the decline, pulling Minneapolis lower, while KC managed to hold onto minor gains. Winter wheat harvest pressure and lower Matif wheat futures likely contributed to the negative sentiment. Both July KC and July Minneapolis encountered overhead resistance near their 20-day moving averages before selling off.
  • Today the USDA reported export sales for the week ending May 30. The 23/24 marketing year saw more net cancellations than expected, totaling 8.4 mb, which brings cumulative net sales to 685 mb. New sales for 24/25 came in higher than expected at 22.7 mb. Total weekly exports came in at 16.5 mb with primary destinations being Mexico, Philippines, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan.
  • A favorable start to the US spring wheat crop and Canada’s wheat crop added upward resistance to prices, along with lower Australian wheat futures on talk of rain in the dry areas of western Australia.
  • Winter wheat planting may begin soon in Brazil but wet conditions and damage to infrastructure may keep progress on the slow side. In Argentina, dry conditions that have been helpful to soybean and corn harvest have not helped with getting the winter wheat crop planted and established.
  • Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister said in a statement that they are keeping their grain production forecast unchanged at 52.4 mmt despite the challenging weather that they have been experiencing.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, the recent breakout above resistance from the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the highs from last summer.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 820 – 840 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, the recent rally above resistance from last winter’s highs suggests there is potential for an extended rally toward summer 2023 highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Considering the recent strength in wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame, greater liquidity, and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat) in case of a protracted rally. For now, moving forward, our current Plan A is to try and let the market run, while targeting a selling price of about 71 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. Those 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Should the market slide back down, our current Plan B is a downside stop of 717 versus Sept ’24 Minneapolis wheat. While the market stays above 717, it is our contention that the uptrend remains intact. However, if Sept ’24 closes below 717 support, upside momentum may be waning, and the trend could be turning down. Therefore, a close below 717 would trigger an additional sale immediately.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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6-5 End of Day: Major Grains Red Across the Board

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite strong ethanol production numbers, money flowing back into short positions, along with weakness in neighboring markets contributed to the selling pressure in the corn market.
  • Strength in soybean meal lent support to soybeans which traded up 13 cents higher on the day in the July contract, but the quick planting pace and potentially higher acreage brought selling pressure that weighed on prices from midday into the close.
  • Despite trading higher in the overnight session, possibly on another reduction by SovEcon to Russia’s wheat crop, the July contract for all three wheat classes closed lower for the sixth consecutive day and below their respective 20-day moving averages.
  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast and updated 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of NOAA and The Weather Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a portion of their net short position, their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as we transition into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, weather is still a dominant feature, and seasonal tendencies remain positive.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed our Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although the technical picture could look better, weather remains a dominant factor and could still move prices back higher if conditions deteriorate. Therefore, we are currently targeting the 480 – 520 range versus July ’24 to make what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your anticipated 2025 corn production. We had been targeting a fill of the price gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the Dec ’25 futures to recommend making the first sale for the 2025 crop. When looking at this target area, we also set a calendar deadline which it needed to be hit by, as we know we need to utilize the opportunities the growing season presents to get early sales on the books. The deadline we set was by the June 4 close. If Dec ’25 did not fill that gap by that day’s close, then we would proceed with making a sales recommendation at the going market price. This Plan A (upside) / Plan B (calendar deadline) duo looks to capitalize on rally opportunities, while simultaneously making sure bushels get sold in case the market falls short of upside target areas. Therefore, Plan B has officially triggered so we are recommending today to get started with selling a portion of your 2025 production on an HTA contract so basis can be set at a later, more advantageous time. Grain Market Insider will likely have two more recommendations over the course of this growing season to get additional sales made for the 2025 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • For the seventh consecutive session, corn prices traded lower, caught in the selling of the entire grain market. The price action remains very disappointing as July corn closed through the 440 price point, and December corn crossed through the 460 barrier. Market momentum points to a further test of the April lows and possibly to the February lows from earlier in the year.
  • Weekly ethanol report showed strong production of fuel last week. Ethanol production moved up to 1.072 million barrels/day last week, which was a 9-week high. Ethanol stocks were 23.052 million barrels. This was the lowest since December 15, 2023. The corn used for the week in ethanol production was estimated at 106.40 million bushels, which is still trending ahead of the USDA required pace.
  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Export demand will be a key variable to price support in the weeks ahead.  Last week, U.S. exporter sold 810,000 mt of old crop corn and 188,000 mt of new. Sales will need to stay near the 1.0 mmt totals to help support prices.
  • Money flow is working against grain markets as managed funds are rebuilding their net short position in corn. Estimated on Wednesday morning, the funds are pushing 160,000 net short contracts of corn. In February, the fund grew their short positions to 340,000 short contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After rallying out of its previous congestion range in early May on planting concerns, the soybean market has been rangebound, capped overhead by resistance around 1250 with support below the market near 1200 for much of May. To start June, soybean prices have broken underlying support and look poised to test the recent lows which sit near the 1150 level on the July chart. With much of the growing season in front of the market a weather-related issue or surge in currently poor demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 soybean crop. Since peaking in May, the market has broken through 100-day moving average support (1180-81) and retraced over 50% back towards the April low. This suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved and prices could trend lower. Considering this and the currently weak demand picture, Grain Market Insider is implementing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend beginning to market your 2024 soybean crop by making sales at these still elevated prices.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after a day of mixed trade which saw the July contract higher by as much as 13 cents at one point before fading into the day. This makes the seventh consecutive lower close, and July futures are down 81 cents from the May high. Soybean meal ended the day higher while soybean oil was lower.
  • Funds are thought to have been adding to their short position for at least the past five days and are estimated to have sold an additional 27,250 contracts in that time frame. This will be confirmed in Friday’s Commitment of Trader’s report.
  • In Brazil, the soybean harvest is virtually complete. However, on Tuesday, reports indicated that an estimated 2.5 million metric tons of soybeans may have been lost due to flooding in Rio Grande do Sul. The USDA’s last estimate of 154 mmt is likely too high.
  • Significant selling pressure is coming from the speed of soybean planting and concerns that a number of acres will be switched from corn to soybeans due to lingering wet weather. The USDA’s last estimate for soybean acreage was 86.5 million acres in the US, and a higher number could cause additional selling pressure.

Above: Following the June 3 close below the 100-day moving average, July soybeans pierced the 1192 – 1146 support area. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area on their way toward recent highs near 1260.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex suffered another blow in today’s trade. After trading higher in the overnight session, sellers emerged when the day session reopened, pushing the markets lower. Harvest pressure and a 1.64% decline in Matif wheat likely added to the negativity
  • Russia’s SovEcon lowered its forecast for Russia’s wheat crop (the world’s top wheat exporter) from its previous estimate of 82.1 mmt to 80.7 mmt. As of last month’s WASDE, the USDA’s current estimate stands at 88 mmt. By comparison, Russia produced 93 mmt last year and 104 mmt the previous year.
  • Reuters reported that Sinograin, China’s state-owned stockpiler, is expected to expand wheat purchases, possibly by as much as 8.1% in a move to achieve self-sufficiency regarding staple grains. The move comes at a time when world wheat stocks are falling.
  • For the season that began July 1, the EU’s wheat exports have fallen 5% year over year and totaled 28.2 mmt as of June 2 versus 29.6 mmt last year, according to the European Commission.
  • In a statement from India’s agriculture ministry, the country’s 23/24 wheat output is expected to rise to 112.9 mmt from last year’s 110.6 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 820 – 840 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Considering the recent strength in wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame, greater liquidity, and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat) in case of a protracted rally. For now, moving forward, our current Plan A is to try and let the market run, while targeting a selling price of about 71 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. Those 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Should the market slide back down, our current Plan B is a downside stop of 717 versus Sept ’24 Minneapolis wheat. While the market stays above 717, it is our contention that the uptrend remains intact. However, if Sept ’24 closes below 717 support, upside momentum may be waning, and the trend could be turning down. Therefore, a close below 717 would trigger an additional sale immediately.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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6-4 End of Day: Grains Lower Across the Board for a Sixth Consecutive Trading Session

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures failed to hang onto early day gains closing slightly lower on the day. Elevated crop conditions ratings in yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report and falling wheat prices limited gains in corn.
  • Soybeans continued lower on Tuesday marking a sixth consecutive trading session of lower prices. Weakness was experienced across the entire soybean complex today as lower soybean meal and soybean oil futures continue to erode crush margins.
  • Strong conditions ratings along with ahead of normal spring wheat planting weighted on wheat prices Tuesday. The wheat complex has now experienced lower prices in six consecutive sessions.
  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast and updated June Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of NOAA and The Weather Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a portion of their net short position their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as we transition into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, weather is still a dominant feature, and seasonal tendencies remain positive.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed our Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although the technical picture could look better, weather remains a dominant factor and could still move prices back higher if conditions deteriorate. Therefore, we are currently targeting the 480 – 520 range versus July ’24 to make what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures failed to hold on to early session gains to close slightly lower for the sixth straight session. Selling pressure in the wheat and soybean markets limited the rally potential in corn futures.
  • USDA posted planting progress at 91% complete for corn planting on Monday afternoon’s crop progress report. That was up 8% from last week and 2% ahead of the 5-year average. Continued wet weather may still make the last 9% difficult to plant, but the market has moved past the fear of major planting delays.
  • USDA released the first corn crop ratings on Monday afternoon. The U.S. corn crop was rated 75% good to excellent, 21% fair and 4% poor to very poor. The ratings were 11% better than last year, and the sixth highest rating in the last 20 years.
  • Brazil’s second crop corn harvest has begun. Ag analyst firm, AgRural, estimates that second crop corn harvest was 4.7% complete last week. Brazil’s second crop corn accounts for approximately 75% of Brazil’s national production and will challenge U.S. corn prices in the export market going into the summer.
  • The corn markets technical picture remains negative, leaving the door open for additional downside pressure. Open interest has been growing, signaling new money moving into the short side of the corn market.

Above: The close below 452 in July corn puts the market on track towards 445 – 437 support just below the market. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could possibly challenge the overhead resistance area of 471 – 475 ½. Otherwise, they could challenge 427 – 424 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After rallying out of its previous congestion range in early May on planting concerns, the soybean market has been rangebound, capped overhead by resistance around 1250 with support below the market near 1200 for much of May. To start June, soybean prices have broken underlying support and look poised to test the recent lows which sit near the 1150 level on the July chart. With much of the growing season in front of the market a weather-related issue or surge in currently poor demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 soybean crop. Since peaking in May, the market has broken through 100-day moving average support (1180-81) and retraced over 50% back towards the April low. This suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved and prices could trend lower. Considering this and the currently weak demand picture, Grain Market Insider is implementing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend beginning to market your 2024 soybean crop by making sales at these still elevated prices.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the sixth consecutive day and are now 75 cents off of last week’s high in the July contract. Pressure has come from lower demand, planting progress that is ahead of the 5-year average, and pressure from both soybean meal and oil which has lowered crush margins.
  • Highlights from yesterday’s Crop Progress Report show soybeans plantings at 78% complete which compares to 68% a week ago, and 55% of the crop is emerged which compares to 39% a week ago. The first crop conditions will likely be released this coming Monday.
  • In South America, the soybean harvest is ongoing with Brazil essentially done and Argentina 86% finished as of last week. There is still a discrepancy between the USDA and CONAB for production estimates in Brazil of at least 5 mmt.
  • Soybean crush was seen at 178 mb for the month of April and although low, was above the average trade estimate of 175 mb. This was down 4.9% from April of last year. The decrease in soybeans crushed is likely tied to lower crush margins.

Above: On May 23, July soybeans traded through the May 7 high but closed lower, posting a bearish reversal. Prices continued to work lower after that reversal into the end of May. A close below the 100-day ma to start June could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures remained volatile as prices saw further selling pressure after Monday’s disappointing close. Despite strong price swings, the SRW and HRW July contract has closed lower for six consecutive days as wheat charts look tired, signaling a possible near-term top.
  • The U.S. spring wheat crop moved to 94% planted on Monday’s USDA crop progress report. This was up 6% from last week and 4% ahead of the 5-year average. USDA crop rating for the spring wheat crop was 74% good to excellent, up 10% from a year ago and well above trade estimates, signaling the spring wheat crop is off to a good start this spring.
  • The HRW harvest began with 6% of the crop harvested last week, up 3% from the 5-year average. The recent strong prices leave the wheat market susceptible to hedge pressure as the HRW crop harvest ramps up in the weeks ahead.
  • The wheat market will be focused on demand for U.S. wheat, global prices, and ongoing Russia weather as the driver for prices. The Russian wheat crop will have some limitations, but the key will be seeing if any additional demand will come to U.S. exporters given a forecaster tighter supply picture.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 820 – 840 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: May 28, July ’24 gapped higher and closed below its open in a bearish reversal after piercing the 720 – 754 congestion area. For now, resistance remains just overhead between 746 and 754, a close above which could put the market on track towards 780. If prices retreat, initial support may come in near 689, with further support between 660 and 646.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Considering the recent strength in wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame, greater liquidity, and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat) in case of a protracted rally. For now, moving forward, our current Plan A is to try and let the market run, while targeting a selling price of about 71 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. Those 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Should the market slide back down, our current Plan B is a downside stop of 717 versus Sept ’24 Minneapolis wheat. While the market stays above 717, it is our contention that the uptrend remains intact. However, if Sept ’24 closes below 717 support, upside momentum may be waning, and the trend could be turning down. Therefore, a close below 717 would trigger an additional sale immediately.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After gapping higher and trading to a 767 ¾ high on May 28, July ’24 closed below its open price creating a bearish reversal. Overhead resistance remains between the 767 ¾ high and 790, a close above which could allow prices to test the 837 level. A slide lower could run into support near 729 and again between 710 and 697.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.