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8-8 End of Day: Markets Press Lower on The Lack of Fresh Bullish News

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Weak technical action in the corn market saw the December contract post its lowest close for the year as it settled below the key 400 level. Disappointing new crop export sales and the lack of fresh news kept sellers in control.

  • With a lack of significant market moving news, and despite weekly export sales that came in above expectations, the soybean market drifted lower along the path of least resistance, as overall new crop commitments remain the lowest since 2019.

  • Despite a strong close in Matif wheat, all three US wheat classes settled in the red after trading on both sides of unchanged, weighed down by lower corn and soybeans with little market friendly news to maintain positive momentum.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, the 6-10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and this week’s US Drought Monitor, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since the release of the July WASDE, which surprised the market by keeping the 24/25 ending stocks figure around 2.1 billion bushels, Dec ‘25 corn has traded to a fresh contract low while managed funds re-established their record net short position. Even though the weather has been mostly favorable for the crop and the trade may be factoring in a higher potential yield, the USDA is expected to update its acreage estimates in the upcoming August WASDE report, which could shift lower due to the slow planting pace last spring. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The meltdown continues in the corn market as a disappointing set of new crop export sales, and a lack of bullish news pressure corn futures. At the close, December corn posted a new low close on the daily charts.

  • December futures saw another day of weak technical price action. The close below the psychological 400 level leaves room for additional selling pressure, and the lack of bullish news and potential for larger production have the sellers in control of the market.

  • Weekly export sales for corn totaled 19.1 mb (485,400 mt) for old crop corn, which was above expectations. New crop sales were very light at 9.8 mb (249,100 mt), which was well below the low end of expectations. With the new crop marketing year beginning on Sept 1, total new crop sales are disappointing given the potentially large supply coming to harvest soon.

  • Weather forecasts remain non-threatening for corn production. Long-range forecasts into mid-August are targeting cooler than normal temperatures. Rainfall looks more limited for the corn belt, but the cooler temperature should ease some plant stress.

  • On Monday, the USDA will release the August crop production report. With the higher-than-average crop ratings, expectations for corn yield are to be over 182 bushels/acre, up from trendline of 181 bushels/acres from previous reports. The increase in potential production is limiting the market’s rally potential.

Above: Since August 2, September corn has been consolidating mostly between 378 and 392. Above 392 lies potentially heavy resistance between 397 and 417, a rally above which could put prices on track toward the 430 – 440 level. Otherwise, a break below 378 could put the market at risk of trading down towards 360.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop. While weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates, the USDA is expected to update its acreage estimates in the upcoming August WASDE, which could be lower given the slow planting pace last spring. Therefore, any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the third consecutive day with the September and November contracts both posting their lowest closes of the year. September soybeans broke below the crucial 10-dollar support level. Soybean meal ended the day higher while soybean oil was bull spread with the front months higher and deferred lower.

  • Today’s export sales report was ok with the USDA reporting an increase of 12.0 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24, and an increase of 36.2 mb for 24/25. This was up 2% from last week and up 66% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments of 12.9 mb of soybeans were below the 15.6 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Indonesia, and Germany.

  • The North Dakota Soybean Processors facility near Casselton, ND was officially opened after two years of construction on the state’s second soybean crush facility. The plant is expected to process up to 42.5 million bushels of soybeans in the first year.

  • Monday’s WASDE report is expected to show an increase in the soybean yield to 52.5 bpa with production estimates up 34 mb from July to 4.469 bb. The average trade estimate for 24/25 carryout is 472 mb which is up 37 mb from July.

Above: The soybean market’s break below 1000 puts it at risk of sliding further toward the 985 support level, below which psychological support may come in near 950. Should current prices hold above 985 and turn back higher, overhead resistance remains in the 1035 – 1045 area with further resistance near 1082.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After trading both sides of unchanged, wheat closed lower in all three classes, despite a higher close in Paris milling wheat. Pressure likely stemmed from a lack of fresh friendly news, as well as weaker corn and soybean futures, both of which settled at new near-term lows today.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 10.1 mb of wheat export sales for the 24/25 marketing year, as well as an increase of 4.1 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week, which totaled 18.2 mb, exceeded the 16.1 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. Total sales commitments at 316 mb are up 34% from last year.

  • As of August 6, the USDA reported that 18% of US spring wheat acres were experiencing drought conditions, up from 16% the previous week. Drought conditions in winter wheat areas also increased, rising from 32% to 40% during the same period. While this may not significantly impact winter wheat at the moment, prolonged dryness could affect planting this fall.

  • The US Climate Prediction Center estimates a 66% chance of La Niña developing between September and November, increasing to 75% between November and January. This could exacerbate drought conditions in Argentina, where the wheat crop is already struggling. However, in the near term, Argentina is expected to receive rain in key growing regions, which should benefit wheat.

  • Strategie Grains has lowered its 24/25 European Union soft wheat production estimate by 5.8 mmt to 116.6 mmt. If accurate, this would mark the lowest production in six years, down from 127.2 mmt last year. The decline is primarily attributed to a reduced French crop and a smaller German harvest.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The market appears to have found support just below the market near 575. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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8-7 End of Day: Grains Close Lower Again Midweek

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market settled lower for the second consecutive day as sellers continue to be active on expectations of higher yields, and producers bring old crop supplies to market to make room for a potentially large new crop.

  • Similar to corn, soybeans closed lower for the second day in a row as weather has been conducive for high yield expectations and a potentially bearish upcoming USDA report.

  • While soybean meal followed through on yesterday’s weakness, soybean oil lent some underlying support to the soybean market as it closed sharply higher on a Reuters report stating that the EPA is investigating biofuel makers’ supplies of used cooking oil.

  • The wheat complex gave up the gains from yesterday to settle lower on the day across all three classes, as they lost technical momentum to the upside despite news of a record Egyptian tender for 3.8 mmt of wheat.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, the 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and this week’s Vegetation Drought Response Index, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, NDMC, EROS, and HPRCC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since the release of the July WASDE, which surprised the market by keeping the 24/25 ending stocks figure around 2.1 billion bushels, Dec ‘25 corn has traded to a fresh contract low while managed funds re-established their record net short position. Even though the weather has been mostly favorable for the crop and the trade may be factoring in a higher potential yield, the USDA is expected to update its acreage estimates in the upcoming August WASDE report, which could shift lower due to the slow planting pace last spring. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure is weighing on the grain markets, with corn prices melting lower over the past two sessions. The prospects of improved yields and producer selling of old crop supplies limit the market’s upside.

  • Ethanol for production last week slipped 3.8% week over week to a daily production of 1.067 million barrels per day. This total is still up 4.3% over last year’s levels. The amount of corn used for the week was estimated at 105.91 million bushels, which is slightly below the pace to reach the USDA marketing year target.

  • Weather forecasts remain non-threatening for corn production. Long-range forecasts into mid-August are targeting cooler than normal temperatures. Rainfall looks more limited for the corn belt, but the cooler temperature should ease some plant stress.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. New exports sales are expected to range from 100,000-400,000 mt for the old crop and 475,000 – 1.0 mmt for the new crop. With only a few weeks left in the 23/24 marketing year, the focus will likely be on new crop sales.

  • On Monday, the USDA will release the August crop production report. With the higher-than-average crop ratings, expectations for corn yield are to be over 182 bushels/acre, up from trendline of 181 bushels/acres from previous reports. The increase in potential production is limiting the market’s rally potential.

Above: The downside breakout through 389 could suggest that prices have further downside risk towards the 362 – 360 support area. However, if prices hold and turn around, they could encounter nearby resistance between 395 and 400, with heavier resistance between 404 and 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop. While weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates, the USDA is expected to update its acreage estimates in the upcoming August WASDE, which could be lower given the slow planting pace last spring. Therefore, any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the second consecutive day, as the USDA’s WASDE report approaches on Monday, and traders anticipate a bearish reaction. The weather has been bearish for soybeans and corn, and while exports have ticked up, it has not been enough to incentivize funds to exit their short positions. Soybean meal was lower today, but soybean oil was higher as it followed the move in crude oil.

  • Trade estimates for Monday’s WASDE report have started coming out, and the average yield is being pegged at 52.5 bpa, which would be up from last month’s 52.0 bpa. Production is estimated to come in higher as well at 44.72 billion bushels which would be up from 44.35 bb last month.

  • The trade estimates that the USDA will lower Argentine soybean production to 51.0 mmt, down from 52.0 mmt last month. In Brazil, soybean production is also expected to decrease to 151.8 mmt from 153.0 mmt last month. Meanwhile, world soybean ending stocks are projected to increase to 128.3 mmt from 127.8 mmt last month.

  • The 7-day forecast doesn’t hold anything too concerning, with normal temperatures and rain expected. A La Nina pattern had previously been expected to cause hot and dry conditions this summer, but so far that has not been the case and has affected grain prices negatively.

Above: Since the end of July, the soybean market has been rangebound between 1005 and 1035. A close below 1008 could put the market at risk of trading down to 1000 and then 985. While a close above the initial resistance area of 1035 – 1045 could put prices on track toward 1130 – 1170, though further resistance may be encountered near 1082.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across the board today. The US dollar continues to recover from its recent steep selloff, maintaining pressure on the grain complex. From a technical standpoint, all three US wheat classes have lost upward momentum; daily stochastics are near the middle of the range and close to sell crossovers for both December Chicago and Kansas City futures.

  • Egypt has announced a record wheat tender at 3.8 mmt, with delivery starting in October and ending in April. This may have provided some early support to the wheat market. However, given the uncertainty of wheat prices, freight costs, and logistics that far out, exporters may be hesitant to commit to offers. The deadline for offers is August 12, so time will tell what happens. For reference, Egypt typically imports about 5-6 mmt of wheat per year.

  • SovEcon has reduced its production estimates for Ukrainian corn and wheat, citing hot and dry weather that has limited yields. The wheat projection is now at 19.7 mmt, compared with 20.4 mmt last month. Additionally, the yield is now estimated at 4.2 tons per hectare, down from 4.4 last year.

  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports as of August 4 have reached 2.18 mmt since the season began on July 1. This is down from 3.57 mmt for the same time frame last year. The top importing nations of this wheat include Nigeria, Egypt, and Morocco.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The market appears to have found support just below the market near 575. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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8-6 End of Day: Corn and Beans Break as Wheat Rallies

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite the corn market’s early session recovery, sellers returned as outside markets stabilized. Carryover weakness from the soybean market, historically high crop ratings, and producers selling old crop inventories contributed to the downturn.

  • With more stable outside markets, today’s break in the soybean market negated what gains were made in yesterday’s session, as traders refocused on a benign weather pattern and improved crop ratings.

  • The wheat complex shrugged off the negativity in the corn and soybean markets and posted gains across all three classes, as a recovery in Matif wheat, and declining estimates of Europe’s wheat crop lent support.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, the 6-10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center. Scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since the release of the July WASDE, which surprised the market by keeping the 24/25 ending stocks figure around 2.1 billion bushels, Dec ‘25 corn has traded to a fresh contract low while managed funds re-established their record net short position. Even though the weather has been mostly favorable for the crop and the trade may be factoring in a higher potential yield, the USDA is expected to update its acreage estimates in the upcoming August WASDE report, which could shift lower due to the slow planting pace last spring. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • With more stability in the markets, sellers returned to the corn market during the day session, pressured by historically strong crop ratings, producer selling of old crop bushels, and weakness in the soybean complex.

  • The USDA released weekly crop ratings yesterday afternoon. This year’s corn crop was rated 67% good to excellent, down 1% from last week. Historically, the rating is above average and bringing forecasts of above trendline yields, and the potential for increased supply is a limiting factor for the corn market.

  • Weather forecasts are still non-threatening for corn production. Long-range forecasts into mid-August are targeting cooler than normal temperatures and rainfall looks more limited for the corn belt, but cooler temperature should ease some plant stress.

  • Producer selling may be increasing as old crop corn needs to be priced and basis contracts move closer to their pricing deadlines. With 7% of the corn crop in dent stage, southern harvest may be beginning soon, and bringing fresh supplies to the market.

  • In the short term, the corn market is moving in a range bound pattern. December corn has support at 398 and resistance at 408.  The market is consolidating within this range.

Above: The downside breakout through 389 could suggest that prices have further downside risk towards the 362 – 360 support area. However, if prices hold and turn around, they could encounter nearby resistance between 395 and 400, with heavier resistance between 404 and 415.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop. While weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates, the USDA is expected to update its acreage estimates in the upcoming August WASDE, which could be lower given the slow planting pace last spring. Therefore, any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower wiping out all of yesterday’s gains as the equity markets corrected and trade shifted focus back to the crop conditions and upcoming weather. While crop ratings showed an improvement in soybean conditions, temperatures may start to increase in the 2-week forecast. Both soybean meal and oil were lower today as well.

  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress Report, showing the soybean crop’s good to excellent ratings improving 1 point to 68%. Iowa had the best rating at 76%, followed by Illinois, Missouri, and Nebraska. 59% of the crop is setting pods, compared to 44% last week, and 86% of the crop is blooming versus 77% last week.

  • The 7-day forecast doesn’t hold anything too concerning, with normal temperatures and rain expected. A La Nina pattern had previously been expected to cause hot and dry conditions this summer, but so far that has not been the case and has affected grain prices negatively.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report showed that 261k tons of soybeans were inspected for export, which was on the lighter side. This compares to 409k tons last week and 291k tons a year ago. Total inspections for 23/24 are down 15% from the previous year. China made two purchases of new crop US soybeans last week, but exports will need to remain strong to be supportive.

Above: Since the end of July, the soybean market has been rangebound between 1005 and 1035. A close below 1008 could put the market at risk of trading down to 1000 and then 985. While a close above the initial resistance area of 1035 – 1045 could put prices on track toward 1130 – 1170, though further resistance may be encountered near 1082.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted gains in all three classes, despite lower closes for corn and soybeans and a recovering US Dollar Index. Outside market influences potentially offered support – Matif wheat futures recovered from yesterday’s losses, and the US stock market is also higher after the major selloff yesterday.

  • Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that winter wheat harvest was 88% complete versus 85% last year and 86% on average. Additionally, 74% of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent, unchanged from last week and well above the 41% rating a year ago. Furthermore, 97% of spring wheat is headed, versus 99% on average. Harvest at 6% complete, is a little behind last year’s 8% and the average of 10%.

  • Good rainfall benefited Argentina’s central crop area this weekend. Better rains are also expected in Argentina’s wheat growing areas in the south and east in early September. Argentina needs the rain; according to the Rosario Exchange, they experienced the driest July in nearly 60 years.

  • Argus has estimated that the French soft wheat crop yields will be 19% below average at 5.93 mt per hectare. Additionally, they projected French wheat production at 15.2 mmt – if accurate this would be a 41-year low.

  • According to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, the European Union’s 24/25 grain production is expected to decline relative to last year. A smaller planted area and lower yields are cited as the reasons for the decline. Wheat production in particular is expected at 127.4 mmt, which is below the USDA’s official estimate of 130 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.

Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The market appears to have found support just below the market near 575. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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8-5 End of Day: Markets Stage a Recovery from Lower Overnight Trade

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market settled higher for the second day in a row as support held near contract lows, providing a base for more short covering that was likely triggered by another day of sharply lower equity markets.

  • November soybean settled near the top of their 26 ½ cent trading range following a dramatic reversal from overnight lows, that saw the whole soy complex lower. Potential short covering by managed funds helped drive the price action in response to lower outside markets.

  • The wheat complex closed mixed on the day as the Chicago and KC contracts staged a recovery with help from a lower US dollar, while the Minneapolis contracts settled in the red, with a forecast for rain contributing to the weakness.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since the release of the July WASDE, which surprised the market by keeping the 24/25 ending stocks figure around 2.1 billion bushels, Dec ‘25 corn has traded to a fresh contract low while managed funds re-established their record net short position. Even though the weather has been mostly favorable for the crop and the trade may be factoring in a higher potential yield, the USDA is expected to update its acreage estimates in the upcoming August WASDE report, which could shift lower due to the slow planting pace last spring. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • With a day of aggressive selling in outside markets, corn futures were able to battle off early session lows to finish higher on the day. The stronger technical close could see some additional follow-through short covering going into tomorrow’s session.       

  • With equity markets seeing strong selling, risk off trade was hitting other assets that were over-valued or high priced. Grain markets are on the opposite side of that picture but may have seen some short covering in order for firms to raise funds to cover margin calls in other markets.

  • Weekly export inspections for corn were supportive at 47.8 mb (1.213 mmt). The drop in corn prices has kept the US competitive in the export market, bringing some contra-seasonal strength in exports.  The current marketing year export pace is in line to reach USDA targets as the marketing year closes at the end of the month.

  • The USDA will release crop ratings later this afternoon. The market is expecting a 1% drop in corn good to excellent ratings to 67%. Corn ratings typically slide this time of year as the crop grows more mature.

  • Weather forecasts are still non-threatening for corn production. Long-range forecasts into mid-August are targeting cooler than normal temperatures and above normal rainfall for most of the corn belt.

Above: The downside breakout through 389 could suggest that prices have further downside risk towards the 362 – 360 support area. However, if prices hold and turn around, they could encounter nearby resistance between 395 and 400, with heavier resistance between 404 and 415.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 30. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 23,453 contracts between July 24 – 30, bringing their total position to a net short 295,096 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop. While weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates, the USDA is expected to update its acreage estimates in the upcoming August WASDE, which could be lower given the slow planting pace last spring. Therefore, any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly higher after a day of mixed trade which initially saw the soy complex lower at the start of the day after a huge sell-off in the equity markets that also affected crude oil prices. Soybean meal ended the day higher while soybean oil remained lower along with crude.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is currently set to post a loss of over 1,000 points on the day, triggered by a disappointing jobs report on Friday and the Japanese Nikkei Index losing over 12% in a single day this weekend. The selloff in equities today primarily affected livestock and crude oil prices, and it was slightly surprising to see a higher close in both corn and soybeans. It is possible that hedge fund money was exiting the stock market and entering the oversold grain market to cover short positions and book profits.

  • Weather forecasts are mixed with Illinois and Iowa having turned slightly drier over the next 7 days, but temperatures are expected to be cooler which should offset the lack of rain. The northwestern Plains continue to receive too much rain.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of July 30, funds were sellers of 14,932 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 178,591 contracts. Funds continued selling as the weather has left crop conditions in good shape, but they are near record short and may be hesitant to get much more aggressive with new shorts.

Above: The break to, and subsequent rally from, the 1008 level in September soybeans suggests an area of support just below the market. Should prices rally from this level, they may encounter resistance around 1082 ¼, a close above which could put them on track towards the 1130 – 1170 congestion area. If prices break lower and close below 1008, they could be at risk of trading down to 1000 and then 985.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 30. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 14,932 contracts between July 24 – 30, bringing their total position to a net short 178,591 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After trading in the red for most of the session, wheat futures eked out a positive close in both the Chicago and Kansas City contracts. However, Minneapolis closed lower alongside Matif wheat futures. Rain on the radar for Minnesota and the Dakotas today may account for the relative weakness of spring wheat.

  • Most outside markets took a risk off posture today due to concerns about both the US and the world economy. The DJIA at the time of writing is down over 1000 points, along with energies and precious metals which are trading lower, while livestock closed sharply lower. On a bullish note, the US Dollar Index was also down hard, at one point hitting the lowest level since January, and may have offered some support to the grain complex.

  • Export inspections for wheat totaled 16.2 mb, bringing 24/25 total wheat inspections to 130 mb, up 16% from last year. However, inspections are slightly behind the USDA’s estimated pace. The USDA estimates exports for 24/25 at 825 mb, which would represent a 17% year over year increase.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $221 per mt FOB. That is a $1 increase from the week prior. Additionally, SovEcon said that last week Russia exported 1.06 mmt of grain, with 930K mt of that being wheat. The total exports were above last week’s total of 1.0 mmt.

  • According to Ukraine’s ag ministry, 24/25 grain exports are up over 40% year over year. As of August 5, exports for the 24/25 season totaled 3.7 mmt compared to 2.6 mmt a year ago. Of that total, wheat accounted for 1.5 mmt, corn at 1.6 mmt, and barley at 533K mt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 30. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,432 contracts between July 24 – 30, bringing their total position to a net short 77,616 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 30. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 674 contracts between July 24 – 30, bringing their total position to a net short 40,192 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The market appears to have found support just below the market near 575. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 30. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 926 contracts between July 24 – 30, bringing their total position to a net short 24,932 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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8-2 End of Day: Markets Close Higher on Potential Risk Off Short Covering

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market closed with modest gains across the board as a risk off trade in outside markets, driven by weak unemployment numbers and disappointing manufacturing data, carried over to the commodity sector, triggering profit taking and short covering.

  • Record June US crush numbers and another new crop soybean flash sale likely contributed to the risk off sentiment in the soybean market as traders likely covered some short positions going into the weekend.

  • Soybean meal and oil closed in opposite directions as meal traded to the upside after finding support below the market in yesterday’s trade. Meanwhile, soybean oil followed through on yesterday’s weakness, with additional pressure coming from sharply lower crude oil.

  • Along with corn and soybeans, the wheat complex settled higher on the day across all three classes, as spillover support from a sharply lower US Dollar likely spurred traders to book profits and cover some short positions ahead of the weekend.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since the release of the July WASDE, which surprised the market by keeping the 24/25 ending stocks figure around 2.1 billion bushels, Dec ‘25 corn has traded to a fresh contract low while managed funds re-established their record net short position. Even though the weather has been mostly favorable for the crop and the trade may be factoring in a higher potential yield, the USDA is expected to update its acreage estimates in the upcoming August WASDE report, which could shift lower due to the slow planting pace last spring. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best early sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. As we move forward and consider the sales that have been recommended, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Moderate buying moved into the grain markets to end the week as corn futures finished with modest gains. Despite the buying strength, December corn futures still finished the week down 6 ¾ cents. Technically, corn futures held and closed above the psychological 400 barrier.

  • Markets in general saw a high amount of volatility to end the week. Disappointing manufacturing data and a weak jobs number this morning triggered aggressive selling pressure in the equity markets, and position squaring or risk off trade in other markets. For corn futures, the negative trade action may have led to some short covering and profit taking during the session.

  • The cash market trend may be a key for near-term corn prices. From August into September, producers may be looking to move old crop corn to make room for fall harvest. In some regions, cash corn basis levels have begun to slip as grain is moving into the pipeline.

  • Private analyst group, StoneX release their producer survey for the month of August. Based on their survey, StoneX estimates a national corn yield of 182.3 bu/acre with national production at 15.207 billion bushels. Both estimates are above USDA forecasted targets.

  • Weather forecasts look positive for crop production going into mid-August, as temperatures are expected to trend normal to below normal for much of the Corn Belt into the middle of the month, with overall precipitation expected to be mostly above normal for the same period.

Above: The downside breakout through 389 could suggest that prices have further downside risk towards the 362 – 360 support area. However, if prices hold and turn around, they could encounter nearby resistance between 395 and 400, with heavier resistance between 404 and 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher to end the week with funds likely taking profits ahead of the weekend. Soybeans made new lows for the year this week as weather forecasts continue to show good overall conditions. Soybean meal closed higher today, lending support to soybeans, while soybean oil ended lower with pressure from sharply lower crude oil.

  • Despite today’s published soybean sale of 202,000 mt to China for 24/25, new crop soybean sales are at a four-year low, just ahead of the pace set in 2019. US exporters will need stronger growth in demand to help push prices higher. The recent sales to China have confirmed some of the recent rumors of Chinese purchases.

  • For the week, September soybeans lost 24 cents to close at 1018 and November soybeans lost 21 ¾ cents to close at 1027 ¼. September soybean meal ended the week with a $0.60 gain to $333.70, and September soybean oil rallied 1.33 cents to 41.68 cents.

  • As in corn, crop conditions in soybeans have been good with the most recent rating at 67% good to excellent for all soybeans. Yesterday, StoneX estimated the national soybean yield at 52.6 bpa with total production at 4.483 billion, both of which exceed current USDA projections.

Above: The break to, and subsequent rally from, the 1008 level in September soybeans suggests an area of support just below the market. Should prices rally from this level, they may encounter resistance around 1082 ¼, a close above which could put them on track towards the 1130 – 1170 congestion area. If prices break lower and close below 1008, they could be at risk of trading down to 1000 and then 985.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted gains in all three categories today alongside higher corn and soybeans, despite sharp losses in the stock market following a weak jobs report this morning. There is some talk that investors were taking profits on the potential for a weaker US economy, including funds buying back short grain positions. Additionally, the US Dollar saw a significant drop today to its lowest level since March 21, which offered support to the grain markets.

  • Argentina’s July rainfall was reported to be 30% below normal, and the dry weather is taking a toll on wheat. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat crop was rated only 31% good to excellent as of last week, an 8% drop from the previous week.

  • According to the USDA, about 16% of spring wheat acres were experiencing drought as of July 30, a 1% increase from the week prior. While crop conditions are still favorable in North Dakota, conditions deteriorate moving west. A storm front may develop over the weekend and into early next week, potentially bringing scattered showers to the northern Plains.

  • The province of Henan, China’s largest wheat producer, accounts for about a third of the country’s supply. The wheat harvest in that region is almost complete, but heat and wet weather have caused concerns about the quality of wheat in storage. Additionally, Vice Premier Liu Guozhong visited Henan after heavy rain and flooding, urging authorities to improve efforts to increase grain yields. China has consistently been working towards self-sufficiency in terms of national food security.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After encountering resistance near 630, the market reversed lower and could be on track toward the July low near 575, where it could find support. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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8-1 End of Day: Corn Prints Fresh Contract Lows Before Rallying Back

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover support from a firmer wheat market helped rally the corn market into the close after it traded down to fresh contract lows on uninspiring weekly export sales.

  • Despite decent old crop export sales, November soybeans closed at their lowest level in 3½ years. This decline was driven by a favorable 2-week forecast, weakness in soybean oil (which closed down 2%), and ongoing concerns about the slow pace of new crop exports.

  • All three US wheat classes closed higher on the day, driven by Minneapolis wheat. The rally was likely fueled by concerns over dryness potentially threatening the spring wheat crop and traders covering short positions in response to oversold conditions in the wheat complex.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, the 6-10 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and most recent US Drought Monitor, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center,  and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best early sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. As we move forward and consider the sales that have been recommended, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Much lower than expected export sales pressured the corn market early in the session. Both September and December corn futures printed fresh contract lows before rallying back with carryover support from the wheat market. Concerns remain in the market that a slowing export pace could lead the USDA to lower its projections.

  • In today’s weekly export sales report, the USDA reported new corn sales as of July 26 totaling 6.6 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 28.0 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week totaling 40.8 mb fell below the 41.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 2.225 bb.

  • Weekly ethanol production data was released Wednesday by the EIA. For the week ending July 26, average daily ethanol production hit an all-time high of 1.109 million barrels. This was up 1% from the week prior and up 5% from last year. Stocks also saw a 1% increase from the previous week, and a 5% increase from last year. Corn used for production was estimated at 110.08 mb, about 5 mb behind the weekly pace needed to reach the USDA’s projection of 5.45 billion bushels.

  • Weather forecasts look positive for crop production going into mid-August, as temperatures are expected to trend normal to below normal for much of the Corn Belt into the middle of the month, with overall precipitation expected to be mostly above normal for the same period.

Above: The downside breakout through 389 could suggest that prices have further downside risk towards the 362 – 360 support area. However, if prices hold and turn around, they could encounter nearby resistance between 395 and 400, with heavier resistance between 404 and 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the third time so far this week as favorable weather in the 2-week forecast continues to pressure ag markets lower. November soybeans made a new low for the year and posted the lowest close of the year. While soybean meal closed slightly higher today, soybean oil slid lower with pressure from lower crude oil.

  • Today’s Export Sales report was mixed with the USDA reporting an increase of 13.8 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 23.2 mb for 24/25. 23/24 sales were up noticeably from the previous week and the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 20.8 mb were above the 16.3 mb needed each week to meet USDA estimates. Primary destinations were to Germany, Mexico, and the Netherlands.

  • This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024/2025 marketing year. This confirmed some previous rumors of China buying new crop US soybeans.

  • Brazilian consultancy Datagro has estimated Brazil’s soybean acreage for 24/25 at 46.98 million hectares, or 116.09 million acres, which would be the 18th consecutive year that acreage was increased in the country if this is realized. Brazilian soybean production for 24/25 is estimated at 166.6 mmt which would be a 12% increase year over year.

Above: The break to, and subsequent rally from, the 1008 level in September soybeans suggests an area of support just below the market. Should prices rally from this level, they may encounter resistance around 1082 ¼, a close above which could put them on track towards the 1130 – 1170 congestion area. If prices break lower and close below 1008, they could be at risk of trading down to 1000 and then 985.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite early session weakness, a rebounding US Dollar, and a mostly lower close for Matif wheat futures, the wheat complex closed in the green for all three classes. Some of this was perhaps short covering by managed funds as wheat corrects from being technically oversold.

  • In today’s weekly Export Sales report, the USDA reported a 10.5 mb increase in wheat sales for the 24/25 marketing year. Last week’s shipments were 16.7 mb, slightly above the 16.2 mb weekly pace needed to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. Total wheat sales commitments for 24/25 have reached 305 mb, up 42% from last year.

  • In the Canadian prairies, rains have been isolated and are expected to remain so through the weekend. Combined with warmer temperatures, soil moisture levels are declining at a critical time for the spring wheat crop. This may explain why Minneapolis futures led the charge higher today.

  • Domestic wheat prices in China are near three-year lows. Sinograin is reportedly increasing wheat purchases for their reserves to help support prices, as recent rains have prompted farmers to sell more wheat to avoid moisture damage. Additionally, China’s wheat harvest was up 2.7% from last year, reaching 138 mmt, which is not helping the situation.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After encountering resistance near 630, the market reversed lower and could be on track toward the July low near 575, where it could find support. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-31 End of Day: Soybeans Find Support from Higher Soybean Oil and Potential Profit Taking

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite a flash sale to unknown destinations, strong ethanol production numbers, and strength in crude oil, the corn market failed to gain upward traction and closed lower with September futures setting a new contract low close.

  • Month end profit taking, and a surge in crude oil futures likely triggered by the killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, helped give legs to the soybean oil market and in turn soybeans. Before rallying back to close higher on the day, September beans printed a fresh contract low. Soybean meal settled mostly lower, except for the August contract, which rallied on the lack of deliveries.

  • A sharply lower US Dollar, a rise in Middle East tensions, and higher Matif wheat prices all likely lent underlying support to the wheat complex. Though the three wheat classes closed mixed, all three settled off their respective lows, with the Chicago and KC contracts showing the most resiliency.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best early sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. As we move forward and consider the sales that have been recommended, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • September corn futures closed at new contract lows on Wednesday as the selling pressure continues. The corn market failed to find any true footing as technical selling pressured the market even with some positive demand news and a strong move higher in crude oil prices due to geopolitical issues in the Middle East.

  • The USDA announced a flash export sale this morning. Unknown destinations bought 4.1 mb (104,572 mt) for the 24/25 marketing year. While the export demand is needed, this was a small, routine sale that failed to move the market.

  • On Thursday morning, the USDA will release the weekly export sales report. Expectations are for new sales to total 275,000 – 600,000 mt for old crop and 400,000 – 800,000 mt for new crop. Current new crop demand has been disappointing, with current sales on the books running at multi-year lows for this time frame.

  • The USDA will release the August WASDE report on August 12, and they have announced that they will be looking at planted acre totals in this report. Talk in the market is a possible reduction of up to 1 million planted acres for corn. The possible decrease in acres could be outweighed by the market anticipating a potential better than trend yield for the current corn crop.

  • Weather forecasts look very friendly for crop production into the middle of August, as temperatures are expected to trend below normal into the middle of the month. With that, overall precipitation across the majority of the corn belt is expected to run above normal for the same time period.

Above: The downside breakout through 489 could suggest that prices have further downside risk towards the 362 – 360 support area. However, if prices hold and turn around, they could encounter nearby resistance between 395 and 400, with heavier resistance between 404 and 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Any remaining old crop 2023 soybeans should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 soybeans – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly higher after making new lows for the year earlier in the day. The trade was bear spread, with the front months only up slightly, while the November 2025 contract was up 7 cents. Today’s price action may have been due to funds taking profits on some of their short positions at the end of the month.

  • Soybean products were mixed today with soybean meal closing lower while soybean oil was higher. The support for soybean oil likely came from higher crude oil prices that increased as a response to Israel’s assassination of a top political leader for Hamas in Iran. This move could further escalate the war in the Middle East.

  • Brazilian consultancy Datagro, has estimated Brazil’s soybean acreage for 24/25 at 46.98 million hectares, or 116.09 million acres, which would be the 18th consecutive year that acreage was increased in the country if this is realized. Brazilian soybean production for 24/25 is estimated at 166.6 mmt which would be a 12% increase year over year.

  • US weather is expected to be hotter than normal over the next 6 to 10 days across the southern and western areas of the country with rainfall amounts generally above normal. The 8 to 14-day forecast shows temperatures cooling off, while rainfall is expected to remain mostly above normal over the entire Midwest. As long as forecasts remain mostly favorable, funds will likely continue to be sellers.

Above: The break to, and subsequent rally from, the 1008 level in September soybeans suggests an area of support just below the market. Should prices rally further they may encounter resistance around 1082 ¼, a close above which could put them on track towards the 1130 – 1170 congestion area. If prices break lower and close below 1008, they could be at risk of trading down to 1000 and then 985.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex had a mixed close: Chicago ended the session with small gains, while Kansas City and Minneapolis were mixed to lower. Chicago’s strength followed a weak start, likely supported by a sharply lower US Dollar Index and a strong close for Matif wheat after early weakness.

  • The killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders has increased tensions in the Middle East, contributing to crude oil’s sharp rally today. This, along with higher equity markets, may offer some spillover support to the grains.

  • Favorable Australian weather may result in a boost to their wheat crop. Some estimates are now as high as 30 mmt, which compares to the USDA’s current estimate of 29 mmt. For reference, last year’s crop totaled 26 mmt.

  • The French wheat crop is reportedly set for a “catastrophic” harvest, with estimates of production declines ranging from 15% to 28%. This could result in a crop as small as 26 mmt, prompting French farmers to seek financial aid from the government. The loss of income is estimated to exceed 1.6 billion euros, or about $1.7 billion USD.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After encountering resistance near 630, the market reversed lower and could be on track toward the July low near 575, where it could find support. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-30 End of Day: Prospects of Large Corn and Soybean Crops Keep Sellers Engaged

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Better than expected corn crop ratings, and a less threatening forecast kept the sellers active in the corn market today and helped press the September contract to a new contract low heading into the close.

  • Although soybean’s good to excellent ratings dropped 1% point, they remain the highest ratings since 2020, keeping the prospect of a large crop high, and market sellers engaged. Soybean meal kept pace with the decline in soybeans, while bean oil settled mixed.

  • Weakness in corn and soybeans also carried over to the wheat complex which settled lower across all three wheat classes, with the steady decline in Paris milling wheat futures adding to the negativity.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  Considering the current growing season often provides some of the best pricing opportunities for next year’s crop and given that the current heavy supply/demand picture could carry over and create upside resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, which allows the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Triggered by better-than-expected crop ratings and improved weather forecast, sellers stayed active in the corn and grain markets on Tuesday. As prices broke going into today’s close, September corn futures posted a new contract low.

  • The USDA released the next round of crop ratings on Monday afternoon. The US corn crop is rated at 68% good to excellent, up 1% from last week and 2% above expectations. Improvement was seen in the Corn Belt across all major corn producing states. These are the highest rating since 2020 and have analyst forecasting an above trendline yield potential corn crop this fall.

  • Adding to the selling pressure in the corn market were improved weather forecasts. The forecasted heat for the Midwest was shifted more to the west, and rainfall potential was increased in the forecast for the Corn Belt for early August. After next week, temperatures are expected to moderate, and trend below normal into the middle of the month.

  • Despite already holding a large net short position in the corn market, managed funds are adding to that position, as the momentum and technical picture favor sellers in the market.

  • Demand concerns still weigh heavily on the corn market. Current new crop corn export sales are paced as one of the softer starts in the last decade for this time frame. With the potential supply picture looking heavier, the key to supporting prices will be triggering some demand to work through that supply.

Above: The corn market continues to consolidate as it corrects from being oversold. If prices break out above the 404 – 415 resistance area, they could run toward 425 – 430. To the downside, a break below 389 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Any remaining old crop 2023 soybeans should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 soybeans – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the third consecutive day as good weather conditions continue to encourage funds to steadily sell grains. While soybeans and its products have been steadily slipping lower, soybeans have fallen by a larger percentage which has improved processor margins. Today, soybean meal closed lower while soybean oil settled mixed with the September and October contracts higher and the December contract lower.

  • Yesterday, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed the good to excellent rating in soybeans falling by one point to 67%. 77% of the crop was blooming which compares to 65% last week and the 5-year average of 74%. 44% of the crop was setting pods versus 29% last week and the average of 40%. The central and eastern Corn Belt typically saw conditions improve while the western Corn Belt saw declines in ratings.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 22,091 soybean contracts as of July 23 which left them net short 163,659 contracts. Since then, it is estimated that funds have sold an additional 25,500 contracts in just the past two trading days.

  • Last week, a sale of 264,000 mt and another of 510,000 mt of soybeans were reported to unknown destinations for the new crop marketing year. There is a good chance that those soybeans were bought by China as the recent selloff has put US beans between an 18- and 22-dollar discount out of the Gulf when compared to FOB beans in Brazil.

Above: The break to, and subsequent rally from, the 1008 level in September soybeans suggests an area of support just below the market. Should prices rally further they may encounter resistance around 1082 ¼, a close above which could put them on track towards the 1130 – 1170 congestion area. If prices break lower and close below 1008, they could be at risk of trading down to 1000 and then 985.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat futures classes posted losses alongside corn and soybeans. After two-sided trading, September Paris milling wheat futures also closed lower for the sixth consecutive session.

  • According to yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, the winter wheat harvest advanced 6% to 82% complete, which is above last year’s pace of 77% complete and the 82% five-year average. Additionally, spring wheat conditions declined 3% to 74% good to excellent. While this drop was more than expected, it remains the highest rating since 2018. Furthermore, that crop is 96% headed (in line with average) and is 1% harvested compared to a 3% average.

  • Freezing conditions threaten Argentina’s main wheat-growing regions. According to the Rosario Grains Exchange, the 24/25 crop is already suffering from drought, prompting a reduction in the planted area estimate by 2.9% to 6.7 million hectares. Now, temperatures of negative four degrees Celsius are expected in the northern Buenos Aires province, and the cold, dry weather has caused crop death.

  • Ukraine’s Agrarian Policy and Food Minister, Taras Vysotsky, has reported that domestic wheat consumption has dropped from 8 mmt to just over 6 mmt per year. Additionally, Ukraine is expected to produce 21 mmt of wheat in 2024, with 15 mmt designated for export.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 indicates support below the market between 546 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 540 could find further support near 530.

Above: Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After encountering resistance near 630, the market reversed lower and could be on track toward the July low near 575, where it could find support. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-29 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Recover Earlier Losses to Close Higher on the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • December corn held early support near 405 as positive money flowed into the corn market and traders cover short positions ahead of month end and Tuesday’s position reporting for the Commitment of Traders report.

  • Though the soybean staged a decent recovery from the day’s lows it failed to catch a bid like neighboring corn and wheat, as it was likely pressured by less threatening weather and prospects of supplies coming to market in the near term. And while soybean meal saw bull spreading action on decent demand, a court ruling rejecting EPA denials of small refinery blending waiver requests, weighed on the front end of the soybean oil market.

  • After posting fresh lows in the September contracts of both Chicago and KC, the wheat complex staged a technical recovery from becoming oversold and closed higher in all three classes as traders began to square positions in preparation for the month end.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  Considering the current growing season often provides some of the best pricing opportunities for next year’s crop and given that the current heavy supply/demand picture could carry over and create upside resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, which allows the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Despite a difficult start to the day, corn futures found enough buying strength to finish mostly higher on Monday. The December corn market remains in the overall sideways pattern that it has been in since early July, holding the bottom of the range at 405 today, with 420 at the top end. 

  • Money flow may have been the reason for the afternoon strength as funds saw support levels hold and exited short positions before the end of the month, and Tuesday afternoon’s position reporting for the Commitment of Traders report.

  • Managed money funds decreased their net short position in corn on last week’s Commitment of Traders report. As of Tuesday, July 23, hedge funds exited 24,847 net short contracts to hold a net short position of 318,549 contracts, reflecting the overall bearish tone of the market.

  • The soybean and corn markets saw selling pressure to start the session as weather forecasts became more crop friendly. The forecasted heat for the Midwest was shifted more to the west, and rainfall potential was increased in the forecast for the corn belt for early August.

  • The USDA released weekly corn export inspections on Monday morning.  Corn inspected for export as of July 25 totaled 41.7 mb and was above market expectations. Year-to-date, corn inspections total 1.837 billion bushels. This total is up 34% from last year and in line with the USDA forecast.

Above: The corn market continues to consolidate as it corrects from being oversold. If prices break out above the 404 – 415 resistance area, they could run toward 425 – 430. To the downside, a break below 389 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 23. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 24,847 contracts between July 16 – 23, bringing their total position to a net short 318,549 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Any remaining old crop 2023 soybeans should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 soybeans – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower but came back significantly from their lows earlier in the day, which saw the September contract down over 40 cents at one point before recovering. September beans also made new contract lows and posted a new contract low close. Soybean meal was bull spread with the two front months higher but deferred contracts lower while soybean oil was bear spread with front months lower but deferred months higher.

  • Today’s price action was very volatile, and the early pressure was likely due to weather forecasts which showed temperatures slightly lower than earlier predictions. The price action in the later part of the day could have been due to managed funds taking profits on their near record large short position ahead of month end.

  • While the slide in soybean prices has been discouraging, a silver lining is that US Gulf new crop offers have become cheaper than Brazilian FOB offers by a significant amount which could cause exports to start ramping up. China has been a buyer of new crop US soybeans last week and hopefully will continue these purchases.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans as of July 23. They bought back 22,091 contracts which reduced their net short position to 163,659 contracts. On Friday, funds were estimated to have sold 18,500 contracts of soybeans.

Above: The break to, and subsequent rally from, the 1008 in September soybeans suggests an area of significant support just below the market. Should prices rally further they may encounter resistance around 1082 ¼, a close above which could put them on track towards the 1130 – 1170 congestion area. If prices break lower and close below 1008, they could be at risk of trading down to 1000 and then 985.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 23. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 22,091 contracts between July 16 – 23, bringing their total position to a net short 163,659 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with gains today across all three classes, despite last week’s spring wheat tour in North Dakota finding record yields, a lower close for Matif wheat futures, and a higher US Dollar Index. Today’s rally may be attributed to a technical recovery, as both SRW and HRW contracts had made new lows and were becoming oversold again.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections at 16 mb bring total inspections to 112 mb which is up 11% from last year. This week’s inspections were on the higher side of what was expected but in line with what is needed to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb.

  • According to IKAR, Russia’s wheat export price ended last week at $220 per mt, which was up $1 from the week prior. Additionally, SovEcon said that last week Russian grain exports hit 1 mmt, versus 710,000 mt the previous week. Of that total, wheat accounted for 760,000 mt.

  • Kazakhstan, according to Interfax, has extended their ban on wheat imports through the remainder of 2024, reportedly in an effort to stabilize the market after illegal imports caused domestic prices to decline sharply.

  • Friday’s CFTC data indicated that managed funds, as of July 23, decreased their net short position in both Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures. The former saw a drop of just 0.9% to 75,184 contracts, while the latter was reduced by 6.9% to 40,866 contracts.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 620 – 640 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 23. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 702 contracts between July 16 – 23, bringing their total position to a net short 75,184 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 indicates support below the market between 546 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 540 could find further support near 530.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 23. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,030 contracts between July 16 – 23, bringing their total position to a net short 40,866 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After encountering resistance near 630, the market reversed lower and could be on track toward the July low near 575, where it could find support. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 23. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 497 contracts between July 16 – 23, bringing their total position to a net short 25,858 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-26 End of Day: Sellers Come Out in Force to Press Markets Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market came under pressure heading into the weekend as sellers focused on technical weakness, an improved weather outlook, and long range demand concerns. The most actively traded December contract closed with modest gains for the week despite the heavy selling today.

  • Heavy selling in soybean oil, likely triggered as key support was broken, and a less threatening weather forecast weighed heavily on the soybean market, which pushed the August contract to fresh contract lows before closing just a ½ cent above its lowest close from last week. Solid demand for soybean meal helped keep the August and September meal contracts in the green, while the deferred contracts settled lower.

  • All three wheat classes closed in the red along with neighboring corn and soybeans. Record yield expectations from the North Dakota spring wheat tour added to the negativity as the wheat market anticipates its largest crop in eight years.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 8-14 day weather hazards outlook, showing excessive heat and potential drought risk, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  Considering the current growing season often provides some of the best pricing opportunities for next year’s crop and given that the current heavy supply/demand picture could carry over and create upside resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, which allows the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A combination of factors brought the sellers to the corn market on Friday to end the week.  Corn futures were sharply lower as the grain markets were impacted by options expiration, weather forecasts, technical selling, and longer-term demand concerns. December corn finished the week 5 ¼ cents higher despite the strong selling pressure on Friday.

  • August corn options expired on Friday. The August options are tied to the September futures prices, and the market can move to areas of large open interest. Prices seemed to move to close out open August corn options at the 495 strike in the market on Friday.

  • Recent weather models are staying above normal temperatures, but some of those longer-range models have moderated and increased chances of precipitation across the central and eastern Corn Belt going into August. The more friendly forecast likely triggered some weather premium leaving the market.

  • Thursday, new crop corn export sales were firm according to expectations at 29.3 mb, the current total for new crop corn sales on the books is disappointing. Currently, new crop sales total 4.87 mmt, which is in line with last year, but total sales are one of the weakest totals for this time of year in the past 10 years.  

  • December corn was challenging key resistance at the 420 level most of the week. As that level held, sellers took control of the market to end the week. In September corn, the ease that prices broke the 400 barrier triggered technical selling in the market. Price follow-through next week will be key if this establishes a new trend in the corn market.

Above: The corn market continues to consolidate as it corrects from being oversold. If prices break out above the 404 – 415 resistance area, they could run toward 425 – 430. To the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Any remaining old crop 2023 soybeans should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 soybeans – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower and gave back a large portion of the gains that they had accumulated earlier this week. The 20-day moving average has been strong resistance for November soybeans consistently since Tuesday, and today prices finally broke to the downside after failing again at the 20-day. Soybean oil dragged prices lower with the September contract losing 4.82%, and soybean meal was mixed with the front months higher and deferred contracts lower.

  • For the week, August soybeans lost 19 ¾ cents at 1077 ½ while November soybeans gained 12 ½ cents at 1048 ½. At one point, November futures were up nearly 51 cents on the week. August soybean meal gained $16.50 for the week at $353.30 and August soybean oil lost 2.90 cents at 43.66 cents

  • Weather was likely a factor in today’s move lower as forecasts which had previously shown temperatures reaching the 100s over the next week have come down to the 90s. Additionally, better chances of rain have been added to the forecast which will be crucial for pod fill heading into August.

  • In soybeans, funds are estimated to have bought back 21,500 contracts over the previous 5 sessions after they reached a new record net short position previously. Funds likely took the opportunity to sell the rally from the past few days and added more back to their short position today.

Above: September soybeans appear to have found initial support just below the market around 1054. Should this area hold, and prices close above 1082 ¼, they could run toward 1130 – 1170 congestion area, though they may encounter resistance near 1100. A break below 1054 could put the market at risk of retreating toward the July low of 1030 ¼, where further support may be found.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The grain complex took a hit today, and wheat was no exception, as all three wheat categories closed with double-digit losses, mirroring declines in corn and soybeans. It appears the rally earlier in the week has lost momentum, and the wheat market, in particular, is facing pressure due to expectations of the largest US crop in eight years, which doesn’t favor significant price recovery.

  • The North Dakota spring wheat tour ended with a final yield estimate of 54.5 bpa, a new record since the tour began in 1994, and compares with just 47.4 bpa last year. The USDA’s estimate is actually higher, projecting a 56 bpa yield, which would beat the 50 bpa record from 2022.

  • The condition of the French wheat crop fell another 2%, leaving only 50% rated as good to excellent, the lowest rating since 2016. Currently, 41% of the crop has been harvested, significantly behind last year’s pace of 76% at this time. According to some private estimates, the French wheat crop could decline to 25-27 mmt, down from early season estimates of up to 34 mmt.

  • SovEcon raised their estimate of Russia’s wheat production by 0.5 mmt to 84.7 mmt. The Black Sea region continues to be warm and dry, particularly in eastern Ukraine and southwest Russia, which could affect their spring wheat crops. Additionally, there are some scattered showers forecasted, but more widespread rains are needed.

  • In their weekly release, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that Argentina’s wheat planting is now 98.5% complete, up from 95% the week prior. The planted acreage estimate remains unchanged at 6.3 million hectares, compared to 5.9 million last year.

  • The European Commission is now estimating that total grain production in the EU will fall to 271.6 mmt versus the June estimate of 274.7 mmt. Soft wheat production, in particular, is projected at 120.8 mmt for 24/25, down from 121.9 mmt previously.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 620 – 640 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The consolidation of the Chicago wheat market shows support below the market around just above the March 523 ½ low. Should the market continue higher, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600. While a close below 523 ½ could suggest a lower trend towards 500 psychological support, with further support in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After hitting upside resistance around 580, KC wheat appears to be on track to retest the 546 support from July 16. Should that area hold with a close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a break below 545 could find further support in the 530 area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After encountering resistance near 630, the market reversed lower and could be on track toward the July low near 575, where it could find support. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.