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8-22 End of Day: Wheat Follows Through on Weakness, as Corn and Beans Slide Despite Solid Export Sales

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Sellers remained active in the corn market as pressure from lower wheat and sharply lower soybeans weighed on prices, despite fresh flash corn export sales to Mexico and unknown destinations. While weekly export sales came in above expectations, the overall slow sales pace remains a bearish factor.

  • Despite weekly export sales coming in above expectations, total new crop commitments remain at multi-year lows. This combined with reports of record yield potential in Illinois put traders in sell mode across the soybean complex, with both soybean meal and oil following soybeans lower on the day.

  • Another day of lower prices for Matif wheat, which hit fresh near-term lows; logistics issues with the shutdown of the two major Canadian railways, and a rebound in the US dollar, all combined to keep sellers active in the wheat complex. All three US classes of wheat closed lower today, led by the Minneapolis contracts.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, the 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the current US Drought Monitor courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and the NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the month of July and to start August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market succumbed to the path of least resistance and traded lower in sympathy with neighboring wheat and soybean markets. The prospect of solid yields this harvest, a sluggish export pace (though solid last week), and the continued movement of corn into the cash market remain bearish factors.

  • Yesterday’s EIA data showed ethanol production rose to 1,100 thousand barrels per day (tbd) last week, up from 1,072 tbd the previous week and 5% higher than a year ago. Nearly 111 million bushels of corn were used, averaging 15.8 mb per day, exceeding the 14.7 mbd required to meet the USDA’s target.

  • The USDA reported this morning that private exporters sold 110,490 mt of corn to Mexico and 132,000 mt to unknown destinations, both for delivery in the 24/25 marketing year.

  • Today’s Export Sales report showed an increase of 4.7 mb in corn sales for 23/24 and a 50.8 mb rise for 24/25, slightly exceeding the average trade expectations. While weekly sales were strong, total new crop commitments remain sluggish, with only 14% of the USDA’s projection sold versus the 18% average for this time of year.  Last week’s corn export shipments reached 45.5 mb, surpassing the 37.7 mb needed weekly to meet the USDA’s 23/24 export target of 2.250 billion bushels. The primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.

  • The Pro Farmer crop tour published yield results for Illinois and western Iowa yesterday. Illinois showed a yield potential of 204.14 bpa, while western Iowa showed potential yields ranging between 176.6 bpa and 195.9 bpa. Overall, the numbers were above last year’s tour levels. The tour moved into southern Minnesota and central and eastern Iowa today.

Above: The gap higher on the continuous chart represents the 20-cent spread premium between the September contract and the (now represented) December contract. A rally above 412 could put the market on track to test the 425 – 430 resistance area. Whereas a break below 390 may put the market at risk of testing the 370 area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly lower wiping out nearly all of the previous gains the November contract had made for the week as the Pro Farmer crop tour finds potentially big yields that could end up being record large. Improved chances of rain in the central Corn Belt have added pressure as well, and both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.

  • Today’s weekly Export Sales report saw a decrease of 1.6 mb of soybean export sales in 23/24 but an increase of 61.6 mb for 24/25, which was toward the higher end of trade estimates. Last week’s export shipments of 15.5 mb were below the 17.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 1.700 bb. Primary destinations were to the Netherlands, Mexico, and Egypt.

  • Domestic demand has been stout as well, with crush margins reportedly ranging from $2.10 to $2.60 per bushel in the Corn Belt which has given processors a large incentive to buy cash soybeans to crush. This should pair with the uptick in export demand recently, but trade is more focused on the large crop that will likely be harvested this fall.

  • This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 198,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year and 105,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Vietnam for the 24/25 marketing year.

Above: The upward gap on the chart represents the 16-cent premium between the September and (now represented) November contract. Overhead resistance for November beans lies near 1000, with further resistance between 1016 and 1050. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower, led by double-digit losses in spring wheat futures. Pressure stemmed from a sharp rebound in the US Dollar Index, as well as another down day and a new near-term low for Paris milling wheat futures.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 18.1 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week totaling 17.3 mb, exceeded the 16.0 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. Wheat sales commitments have reached 346 mb for 24/25, up 31% from last year.

  • The two largest railways in Canada shut down as a strike began last night. Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd account for nearly 80% of Canada’s freight shipments. Additionally, BNSF railroad in Mexico suspended the issuance of new permits due to congestion. These rail issues are raising concerns about the logistics of grain movement, which added pressure to the grain complex today.

  • Adding to bearishness in wheat is talk that the Chinese crop may be record-large at 138.2 mmt. As a net importer of wheat, this could reduce their need to import grain, which may pressure both US and global export markets.

  • According to the USDA, as of August 20, approximately 21% of US spring wheat acres are experiencing drought. This is unchanged from the previous week, and conditions remain favorable in major producers North Dakota and Minnesota. However, drought in winter wheat areas has expanded 2% from last week to 45%, which may affect the establishment of the winter wheat crop that will soon be planted.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert pressure on the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Breaking the initial support at 537 puts December Chicago wheat at risk of dropping toward the July low of 514 ¼. However, the market may find support between 514 ¼ and 524, allowing it to stabilize. On the upside, resistance remains around the 50-day moving average; a rally above this level could push prices toward the 570–590 range.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 15-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. Below the market, support lies around the 540 – 530 area. Overhead, initial resistance could be encountered around the 50-day moving average, and any rally above it could face additional resistance near 600.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The breach of the 595 support level puts the market at risk of trading lower. Support below the market now could be found between 579 and 575, with the next level of major support near 540. Overhead resistance remains near the 50-day moving average and then in the 617 – 637 area.

Other Charts / Weather

5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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8-21 End of Day: Corn and Beans Consolidate in Quiet Trade as Wheat Breaks

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market experienced another day of quiet trade in a tight 4-cent range as it continues to consolidate with little fresh news to move prices significantly in either direction. The recent increase export demand kept nearby prices supported, as the market works through old crop supplies.

  • Soybeans traded in a relatively tight range before settling modestly higher, supported by new flash export sales to China and higher soybean oil. Although, prices were weighed down as soybean meal faded after hitting upside resistance near its 20-day moving average.

  • Despite a weakening US Dollar, wheat prices closed lower in all three classes as softer global wheat values, with Matif wheat trading to its lowest levels in five months, weighed on US prices. Increased Ukrainian wheat exports and improved Australian weather also contributed to the weakness.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, and the 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the month of July and to start August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Another quiet trading day in the corn market as futures finished mixed for the day as the market looks for fresh news. December corn had a 4-cent trading range on the day as prices consolidated for the second straight session.

  • The front end of the corn market has been supported by a counter-seasonal uptick in demand as corn export inspections have run ahead of averages the past few weeks. This week’s export shipments at 1.116 mmt were double last year’s total for the week as the market works through old crop supplies before harvest brings fresh supplies into the pipeline.

  • The USDA will release weekly exports sales on tomorrow morning. Expectations are for old crop sales to range from 100,000 – 300,000 mt and new crop sales from 500,000 –1.025 mmt. The current marketing year ends on August 31, so the market’s focus will be on new crop corn sales.

  • The Pro Farmer crop tour published yield results for Indiana and Nebraska yesterday. Indiana has a yield potential of 187.54 bpa and Nebraska was 173.25 bpa. Both numbers were above last year’s tour levels. The tour moved into Western Iowa and Western Illinois today.

Above: The gap higher on the continuous chart represents the 20-cent spread premium between the September contract and the (now represented) December contract. A rally above 412 could put the market on track to test the 425 – 430 resistance area. Whereas a break below 390 may put the market at risk of testing the 370 area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher as prices consolidated and the November contract closed 26 ½ cents off its low from Friday. Futures saw support today from more announced export sales and higher trade in both soybean meal and oil. So far this week, November is trading 25 cents higher and has seen additional support from a short-term hot and dry forecast.

  • This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year and 121,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. This follows sales of 371,392 mt from yesterday.

  • The warmer and drier forecast over the next 10 days has caused NOAA to issue a drought warning for the southern Plains which raises 10% of total US soybean production. While this may cause crop ratings to fall slightly, the crop is still set up for large yields, and production should not be impacted too much.

  • The Pro Farmer crop tour was in Indiana and Nebraska yesterday. In Indiana, soybean pod counts are averaging 1,379 pods per 3×3 foot square which compares to 1,310 pods last year and the 3-year average of 1,238.6. In Nebraska, pod counts averaged 1,172 according to 376 samples and is up from 1,160 pods last year and the 3-year average of 1,150.

Above: The upward gap on the chart represents the 16-cent premium between the September and (now represented) November contract. Overhead resistance for November beans lies near 1000, with further resistance between 1016 and 1050. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat classes closed lower on the day, led by Chicago futures. Weakness came despite another move downward in the US Dollar, possibly due to weakening global wheat values. After a few days of consolidation, Paris milling wheat futures broke to the downside, with the front month September contract trading to the lowest level since early March.

  • Ukrainian grain exports for the 24/25 season have reached 6 mmt as of August 21, up from 3.6 mmt during the same period last year. Of that total, 2.8 mmt was said to be wheat, followed by 2.2 mmt of corn and 1 mmt of barley.

  • Argentina has quarantined a grain cargo ship on the Parana River due to a suspected case of monkeypox in a crew member. Although the vessel was preparing to load soy, this incident raises broader concerns about the logistics of grain shipments. Last week, the World Health Organization declared monkeypox a global public health emergency.

  • Weather in Australia has been mostly favorable in the western and southern regions, with scattered showers over the weekend boosting soil moisture levels. More rain is expected this week in these areas, while the northern regions may remain drier. Overall, warm temperatures this week should support wheat crop development.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert pressure on the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 22-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. The 50-day moving average does present overhead resistance, and any rally above it could encounter further resistance between 580 and 600. On the downside, initial support lies near 537, with further support around 514.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 15-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. Below the market, initial support lies near 550 with further support around the 540 – 530 area. Overhead, initial resistance could be encountered around the 50-day moving average, and any rally above it could face additional resistance near 600.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 17-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. Initial support below the market likely comes in near 595, and a close below there could put the market at risk of trading down towards 575. To the upside, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average, and any rally above there could encounter further resistance between 630 and 635.

Other Charts / Weather

7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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8-20 End of Day: Markets Settle Mixed Following Relatively Quiet Two-Sided Trade

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market settled near session lows after failing to follow through on yesterday’s positive price strength, as traders took profits following improved findings in the Pro Farmer crop tour and strong weekly crop ratings.

  • Despite another round of new crop flash sales to China and Mexico, the soybean market gave up its earlier gains in the session and closed mixed. Better than expected crop ratings and lower meal prices, led by profit taking, offset the rally in soybean oil, and contributed to the selling pressure.

  • With little fresh news to trade, the wheat complex staged a firm close across all three classes as the US Dollar Index dropped to its lowest level since January of this year, and traders potentially covered some short positions in response to oversold conditions.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, and the 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the month of July and to start August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Sellers stepped back into the corn market on Tuesday as prices failed to follow through after Monday’s strength. Strong, consistent crop ratings and improved results on the Pro Farmer crop tour triggered some long liquidation.

  • Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report saw the corn crop maintain its 67% good to excellent rating. This was steady with last week and 1% above expectations. The consistent ratings during this time window signal a large potential corn crop and keep yield estimates based on crop rating forecasting above trendline. As for maturity, 74% of the crop was in dough stage and 30% was dented, both ahead of 5-year averages.

  • The Pro Farmer crop tour published yield results for Onio and South Dakota yesterday. Ohio has a yield potential of 183.29 bu/acre and South Dakota was 156.71 bu/acre. Both numbers were slightly below last year’s tour levels. The tour moved into Nebraska, western Indiana, and eastern Illinois today.

  • The US Dollar Index softened for the second straight day this week, down over a full basis point since Friday’s close as technical charts broke lower. The prospects of a more friendly monetary policy in the near future has pressured the dollar index. The weaker dollar should help US grains compete on the global export market.

  • Cash markets will likely be the driver of the price action into the end of the month, as producers will be likely moving old crop supplies and setting prices on basis contracts. Supplies are typically moved in this window with harvest around the corner. Basis levels will be an indicator of the cash market and the amount of corn movement.

Above: The gap higher on the continuous chart represents the 20-cent spread premium between the September contract and the (now represented) December contract. A rally above 412 could put the market on track to test the 425 – 430 resistance area. Whereas a break below 390 may put the market at risk of testing the 370 area.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day mixed with the November contract unchanged, while the deferred contracts were fractionally lower to a penny higher. Despite today’s move, November futures remain 21 cents off Friday’s low. Trade struggled with friendly news of export sales to China today against bearish news that crop conditions were unchanged when they were expected to fall. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil reversed for a higher close.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the soybean good to excellent rating unchanged at 68%, which compares to last year’s 58% at this time. 95% of the crop was blooming, compared to 91% last week, and 81% of the crop is setting pods versus 72% last week and the 5-year average of 80%.

  • This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year and 239,492 metric tons of soybeans were sold for delivery to Mexico during the 24/25 marketing year.

  • The Pro Farmer crop tour is ongoing and yesterday in Ohio, soybean yields were seen below the USDA’s most recent estimates. Soybean yields in South Dakota were seen up from last year.

Above: The upward gap on the chart represents the 16-cent premium between the September and (now represented) November contract. Overhead resistance for November beans lies near 1000, with further resistance between 1016 and 1050. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a positive close in all three US classes today. Matif wheat did not offer much direction, with a mostly neutral close and only a slight gain in the front month September contract. But the US Dollar Index saw another significant drop today, which may have provided some support to the wheat complex. At the time of writing, the index is down 0.43 to 101.45, the lowest level since January 2.

  • According to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, as of Sunday, winter wheat was 96% harvested. This is slightly above the 95% pace of both a year ago and the 5-year average. Spring wheat was rated 73% good to excellent, up 1% from last week and well above the 38% rating last year. Additionally, 31% of the crop is harvested compared to 35% last year and 36% on average.

  • According to their ag minister, Russia’s total grain production estimate remains unchanged at 132 mmt. However, SovEcon increased their estimate of Russian wheat production by 0.4 mmt to 83.3 mmt. For reference, the USDA is estimating 83 mmt of Russian wheat production and the Russian ag minister is estimating 86 mmt.

  • There was little other fresh news pertaining to the wheat market today. This may indicate that today’s rally was mostly technical in nature. Kansas City futures, in particular, are on the lower end of some technical indicators, signaling oversold conditions. Additionally, KC futures show a buy crossover signal on daily stochastics.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert pressure on the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 22-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. The 50-day moving average does present overhead resistance, and any rally above it could encounter further resistance between 580 and 600. On the downside, initial support lies near 537, with further support around 514.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 15-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. Below the market, initial support lies near 550 with further support around the 540 – 530 area. Overhead, initial resistance could be encountered around the 50-day moving average, and any rally above it could face additional resistance near 600.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 17-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. Initial support below the market likely comes in near 595, and a close below there could put the market at risk of trading down towards 575. To the upside, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average, and any rally above there could encounter further resistance between 630 and 635.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Above: Spring wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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8-19 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Close Near Session Highs, as Wheat Settles Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Higher than expected corn export inspections sparked some profit taking off of the recent contract lows in the September and December contracts as buyers regained control of the corn market at the beginning of the week.

  • The soybean market rebounded from last week’s contract lows, driven by new flash sales of new crop soybeans to China and unknown destinations, alongside a warm and dry weather forecast. Additionally, strong gains in both soybean meal and oil provided further support, contributing to a 6 ½ cent increase in September Board crush margins.

  • Despite a sharply lower US Dollar and higher neighboring corn and soybean markets, the wheat complex closed mixed, after all three classes traded on both sides of unchanged. Minneapolis wheat led to the downside as the spring wheat harvest expands, while KC contracts maintained small gains, and Chicago showed weakness in the front month contracts, with small gains in the deferred months.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, and the 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the month of July and to start August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Buyers stepped back into the corn market to start the week as good weekly export inspections triggered some profit taking in the corn market.

  • Weekly export inspections remain strong late into the marketing year. Last week, US exporters shipped 45.9 mb (1.166 mmt) of corn, which was at the high end of expectations. Total inspections for 23/24 are now at 1.972 bb, up 38% from the previous year and running ahead of the USDA pace for the marketing year.

  • The most watched of the crop tours, the Pro Farmer Crop tour, runs through Wednesday. The tour started in the eastern and western Corn Belt this morning and will work toward the center by Wednesday. Monday’s results will likely be very variable, but totals will improve as the tour moves into the core of the Corn Belt. Final tour numbers will be released on Thursday night.

  • Cash markets will likely be the driver of the price action into the end of the month as producers will be likely moving old crop supplies and setting prices on basis contracts. Supplies are typically moved in this window with harvest around the corner. Basis levels will be an indicator of the cash market and the amount of corn movement.

Above: The gap higher on the continuous chart represents the 20-cent spread premium between the September contract and the (now represented) December contract. A rally above 412 could put the market on track to test the 425 – 430 resistance area. Whereas a break below 390 may put the market at risk of testing the 370 area.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold, 6,462 contracts between August 7 – 13, bringing their total position to a net short 249,007 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly higher in a reversal from Friday’s poor close that brought November futures to new contract lows. Today, there was support across the grain complex as a result of the 7 to 10-day forecast which showed warm and very dry conditions approaching across the Corn Belt. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher as well.

  • Later this afternoon, the USDA will release its Crop Progress report, and trade is anticipating a decline in crop ratings by 1 to 2 percentage points. The upcoming warm and dry weather could take ratings down further in the coming weeks, but yields are still expected to be near record levels.

  • This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 332,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year and 110,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed managed funds as sellers of soybeans in the week ending August 13. They sold 5,431 contracts of soybeans which left them net short 174,447 contracts. This is near their record short position and funds are estimated to have sold an additional 2,500 contracts since then.

Above: The upward gap on the chart represents the 16-cent premium between the September and (now represented) November contract. Overhead resistance for November beans lies between 1016 and 1050, with further resistance near 1080. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,431 contracts between August 7 – 13, bringing their total position to a net short 174,447 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After trading both sides of unchanged, wheat ultimately had a mixed close. September and December Chicago wheat were down slightly, with deferred contracts a little higher. Kansas City futures were marginally higher across the board, but Minneapolis led the way to the downside as spring wheat harvest expands. The relative weakness in wheat today is a bit surprising given the strength of corn and soybeans, and a sharply lower US Dollar. The USD Index today hit the lowest level since January and as of writing is sub the 102 level.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections reached 12.8 mb, bringing total inspections for the 24/25 marketing year to 168 mb. This is 26% higher than the same period last year and well ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace of a 15% increase. Total wheat exports for 24/25 are projected at 825 mb.

  • Interfax reported that Russia’s wheat yields are 22% behind last year at about 4 mt per hectare (2.47 acres). Even though yields are down versus last year, according to Russia’s ag ministry, overall quality is higher. As of August 14, the country has harvested about 59.8 mmt, 3.2 mt behind last year’s pace.

  • According to Egypt’s Supply Minister Sherif Farouk, Egypt’s wheat stocks are ample enough to last over six months, and the country continues to implement its policy of direct wheat purchases. This comes on the heels of its largest ever wheat tender of 3.8 mmt, of which only about 280,000 mt were fulfilled.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert pressure on the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 22-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. The 50-day moving average does present overhead resistance, and any rally above it could encounter further resistance between 580 and 600. On the downside, initial support lies near 537, with further support around 514.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,956 contracts between August 7 – 13, bringing their total position to a net short 73,288 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 15-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. Below the market, initial support lies near 550 with further support around the 540 – 530 area. Overhead, initial resistance could be encountered around the 50-day moving average near 583, and any rally above it could face additional resistance near 600.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,214 contracts between August 7 – 13, bringing their total position to a net short 32,824 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 17-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. Initial support below the market likely comes in near 595, and a close below there could put the market at risk of trading down towards 575. To the upside, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average of 614, and any rally above there could encounter further resistance between 630 and 635.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 558 contracts between August 7 – 13, bringing their total position to a net short 25,695 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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8-16 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Make Fresh Lows as Wheat Rebounds

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Technical selling, and the continued movement of old crop supplies into the market, helped press the corn market to new contract lows and contract low closes in the September and December contracts.

  • Despite yesterday’s strong NOPA crush report, which showed a record number of soybeans crushed in the month of July, November soybeans printed a new contract low close at the end of today’s session, as the prospect of a large crop and soft new crop demand looms over the market.

  • Minneapolis contracts led the wheat complex to a higher close, bolstered by a weaker US Dollar and gains in Matif wheat, which finally ended higher after four consecutive lower closes. Heavy rains and quality concerns surrounding the spring wheat crop further supported the Minneapolis contracts.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the US Seasonal Drought Outlook, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the month of July and to start August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Follow-through selling after yesterday’s difficult close pushed corn futures to new lows, resulting in contract low closes in today’s trade. Technical selling, driven by the likely movement of old crop supplies and farmer selling, dominated the markets. December corn futures closed lower for the third consecutive week, losing 2 ½ cents.

  • Producer selling will be a limiting factor in the corn market as basis contracts must be priced by the month’s end. Additionally, producers will be looking to move old crop supplies to make room for this fall’s harvest.

  • The corn market will be watching field tours and potential yield results with upcoming crop tours over the next few weeks. The USDA has projected a lofty yield projection, and market participants will be looking for confirmation of this potential. The highly publicized Pro Farmer Tour will start next Monday. Strong results could limit corn prices in the near term.

  • Weak cash markets will likely pressure futures as producers price old crop bushels, and early southern harvest results enter the pipeline. Talk in the countryside of weaking basis is starting to grow as those bushels are hitting the market and merchandisers are getting comfortable with fresh supplies.

Above: The gap higher on the continuous chart represents the 20-cent spread premium between the September contract and the (now represented) December contract. A rally above 412 could put the market on track to test the 425 – 430 resistance area. Whereas a break below 390 may put the market at risk of testing the 370 area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower with the November contract making new contract lows. Yesterday, futures were briefly higher earlier in the day thanks to a strong NOPA crush report and solid export sales. Unfortunately, trade is much more concerned with the good weather forecast and large crop being anticipated this fall. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher.

  • For the week, September soybeans lost 50 cents to end at 938 ¾ and November soybeans lost 45 ½ cents to end at 957. September soybean meal lost $8.30 to end at $303.40, while September soybean oil lost 2.47 cents to 39.95 cents.

  • Since August 9, funds are estimated to have sold 21,500 contracts of soybeans. While funds may have been sellers this week, it is likely that there has been selling on the commercial side as well as producers selling what is left of their old crop in order to make room in their bins for this fall’s harvest.

  • According to the EIA report, five renewable diesel plants were opened this past year. This brings the total to 22 plants in production, and the additional five plants should boost production by 44% to 4.33 billion gallons per year. This was supportive to soybean oil today, despite California’s continued pursuit to limit the amount of soybean oil in biofuel production.

Above: The upward gap on the chart represents the 16-cent premium between the September and (now represented) November contract. Overhead resistance for November beans lies between 1016 and 1050, with further resistance near 1080. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat classes gained today, aided by a weaker US Dollar Index and support from Matif wheat. The Paris wheat contracts stopped their bleeding and closed higher after four consecutive days of decline. With Matif wheat being oversold and leaving two gaps above the current market level, signs of potential recovery are emerging, which could benefit the US market.

  • Minneapolis futures led the wheat complex higher, likely due to heavy rains in parts of North Dakota this week, which slowed the spring wheat harvest. The wet conditions have also raised concerns about the quality of the crop.

  • The Ukrainian agriculture ministry reported that their wheat harvest is complete, with 21.7 mmt collected. This aligns closely with the USDA’s estimate of 21.6 mmt and matches last year’s harvest of 21.6 mmt.

  • Germany is expected to harvest its smallest grain crop since 2018, totaling 39.1 mmt, according to a German agricultural association. The decline is attributed to lower yields and reduced planted area, with wheat production specifically expected to drop by 13% to 18.76 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert pressure on the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 22-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. The 50-day moving average does present overhead resistance, and any rally above it could encounter further resistance between 580 and 600. On the downside, initial support lies near 537, with further support around 514.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 15-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. Below the market, initial support lies near 550 with further support around the 540 – 530 area. Overhead, initial resistance could be encountered around the 50-day moving average near 583, and any rally above it could face additional resistance near 600.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 17-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. Initial support below the market likely comes in near 595, and a close below there could put the market at risk of trading down towards 575. To the upside, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average of 618, and any rally above there could encounter further resistance between 630 and 635.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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8-15 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Close Lower on the Day, While Beans Close Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Led by the September contract, the corn market drifted off overnight highs on disappointing weekly old crop export sales and the likely selling of old crop bushels to make room for the new crop.

  • Despite record NOPA crush numbers for July and new crop export sales exceeding expectations, the soybean market closed slightly mixed, giving up early session gains. Weakness in soybean oil, despite lower-than-expected July stocks, likely added pressure to the overall soybean market.

  • After gaining strength overnight, likely due to a Russian drone strike on an Odesa port, the wheat complex retreated from its highs and settled lower across all three classes. Another day of losses in Matif wheat, and a higher US Dollar contributed to the negativity.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and US Drought Monitor, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the month of July and to start August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures faded off session highs led by selling pressure in the front month September contract, as weekly export sales for old crop were disappointing and producers likely moved old crop bushels. Heading into the end of the week, December corn futures are 2 cents higher. However, the corn market has closed lower on the previous two Fridays.

  • The USDA released weekly export sales data on Thursday morning. Old crop corn sales, despite only two weeks left in the marketing year, were at 4.7 mb (120,500 mt), a marketing year low, and below expectations. New crop sales on the other hand were favorable at 31.5 mb (800,500 mt), just slightly above expectations. The market is focused on new crops sales as the next marketing year is off to a slow start.

  • Producer selling will be a limiting factor in the corn market as basis contracts must be priced by the month’s end. Additionally, producers will be looking to move old crop supplies to make room for this fall’s harvest.

  • Current weather forecasts are non-threatening, which should only aid in good kernel fill as the crop moves closer to the finish line.

  • The corn market will be watching field tours and potential yield results with upcoming crop tours over the next few weeks. The USDA has projected a lofty yield projection, and market participants will be looking for confirmation of this potential. Strong results could limit corn prices in the near term.

Above: Since August 2, September corn has been consolidating mostly between 378 and 392. Above 392 lies potentially heavy resistance between 397 and 417, a rally above which could put prices on track toward the 430 – 440 level. Otherwise, a break below 378 could put the market at risk of trading down towards 360.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With a key part of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the mid-1100s from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day mixed in bear spread trade which saw the front months lower but higher prices in the deferred contracts. Both the NOPA crush and export sales numbers were supportive today, but ongoing good weather conditions and anticipation of a large crop have pressured soybeans. Soybean meal ended the day higher while soybean oil was lower.

  • Today’s NOPA crush numbers showed that 182.881 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in July. This was 5.5% above last July’s crush, exceeded the average trade guess, and set a record for July in any year. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.499 billion pounds, below the trade guess of 1.608 billion.

  • Today’s export sales report was supportive, with an increase of 8.1 mb of soybeans for 23/24, within trade estimates, and an increase of 49.4 million bushels for 24/25, which was well above trade estimates. Last week’s export shipments of 15.8 mb were just below the 16.8 mb needed each week to reach the USDA’s export projection. Primary destinations were to China, unknown destinations, and Mexico.

  • The Amazon River basin is experiencing very dry conditions during the dry season, worse than last year. Low river levels may be affecting the shipment of soybeans from northern areas to ports. While the majority of soybeans are exported from southern ports, difficult logistics in northern ports could increase export demand for US exporters.

Above: Given the soybean market’s recent slide, it is now showing signs of being very oversold, which can be supportive if a bullish catalyst enters the scene to turn prices higher. Should that happen, prices could encounter overhead resistance between 1000 and 1040 on a rally toward the 1080 – 1085 area. To the downside, a break below the 950 support area puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After early strength, all three classes of wheat faded to a negative close. A Russian drone strike on a port in Odesa, Ukraine, likely contributed to the overnight upward trend. However, a sharp rise in the US Dollar Index, which climbed back above 103, weighed on the market. Additionally, Paris milling wheat futures, which started the session higher, ended lower for the fourth consecutive day.

  • In today’s weekly Export Sales report, the USDA reported an increase of 12.5 mb in wheat export sales for the 24/25 marketing year and a decrease of 2.5 million bushels for 25/26. Last week’s shipments reached 18.4 mb, surpassing the 16.1 mb per week needed to meet the export goal of 825 mb. Wheat sales commitments for 24/25 have reached 328 mb, exceeding the USDA’s estimated pace and up 32% from last year.

  • As of August 13, the USDA reports that approximately 21% of US spring wheat acres are experiencing drought, a 3% increase from last week. However, conditions in both North Dakota and Minnesota remain favorable, with more than 80% of spring wheat rated good to excellent in both states.

  • According to FranceAgriMer, despite expectations that the French wheat crop may be the smallest harvest since the 1980s, soft wheat quality is similar to last year’s. However, test weights vary significantly across different regions. Protein levels also vary, but are generally considered satisfactory.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since mid-July, Chicago wheat has been rangebound between 514 on the bottom and 556 up top. Should prices close above 556, they could run into resistance around 580 on a move toward the 590 – 600 area. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The market appears to have found support just below the market near 575. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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8-14 End of Day: Wheat Settles Mixed on the Day; Corn and Beans Rebound

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Monday’s bullish reversal remains supportive to corn prices as the market consolidates with limited upside movement due to continued non-threatening weather and farmer selling.

  • After printing new contract lows in the September and November contracts, the soybean market posted a technical recovery from extremely oversold conditions as traders likely covered short positions from the recent break in prices.

  • Soybean meal and oil settled in opposite directions after both traded higher earlier in the session. While meal regained most of yesterday’s losses, soybean oil came under pressure from reports that California has moved to limit carbon credits on soybean and canola oil’s use for biofuel to 20%.

  • The wheat complex settled mixed on the day following two-sided trade on both sides of unchanged. Chicago contracts closed strong on technical buying with bull spreading noted, despite further declines in Matif wheat, while KC and Minneapolis settled lower.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the 6–10 and 8–14-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the month of July and to start August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw some buying action on Wednesday as prices consolidated near the top of Monday’s trading range. The current reversal low from Monday remains supportive to the market as a short-term low. Consistent non-threatening weather overall and producer selling are limiting to the upside in corn.

  • Weekly ethanol production averaged 1.072 million barrels per day last week. This was up 0.5% from the previous week and up 0.3% from last year, as overall ethanol production remains strong. Total corn used last week was estimated at 106.40 million bushels, which is slightly behind the pace to reach the USDA corn usage target for the marketing year.

  • Weekly corn export sales will be announced on Thursday morning. Expectations for old crop sales range from 300,000 – 550,000 mt and new crop sales between 150,000 – 800,000 mt. The old crop marketing year ends on August 31, so the market focus will be on new crop sales and shipment totals.

  • Despite the overall sideways trade in the corn market, the National Corn Index has trended lower since the first of August, reflecting producer selling and weaker cash basis as old crop supplies are being priced and moved.

Above: Since August 2, September corn has been consolidating mostly between 378 and 392. Above 392 lies potentially heavy resistance between 397 and 417, a rally above which could put prices on track toward the 430 – 440 level. Otherwise, a break below 378 could put the market at risk of trading down towards 360.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With a key part of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the mid-1100s from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • After making new lows in the overnight session, soybeans ended the day higher breaking a 6-day losing streak. Today’s move higher was likely technical in nature with the market being extremely oversold and prices 54 cents lower so far this month in the November contract. Soybean meal led the way higher while soybean oil was lower.

  • Yesterday, there was another daily announcement that two cargoes of new crop soybeans were sold to China as the US export window opens. US soybeans are at a discount to South America’s as Brazilian basis levels have been getting more expensive.

  • Yesterday, CONAB raised its estimate for Brazilian soybean production to 147.382 mmt, which was up from 147.337 mmt last month. This estimate is still well below the USDA’s estimate from Monday which has Brazilian soybean production at 153 mmt.

  • Forecasts predict rain across the Midwest this week, along with moderate temperatures that should benefit the crops and may continue to put pressure on prices. However, North Dakota has received excessive rain, leading to flooding, while Missouri will be under a flash flood watch overnight.

Above: Given the soybean market’s recent slide, it is now showing signs of being very oversold, which can be supportive if a bullish catalyst enters the scene to turn prices higher. Should that happen, prices could encounter overhead resistance between 1000 and 1040 on a rally toward the 1080 – 1085 area. To the downside, a break below the 950 support area puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Following a day of two-sided trade, wheat had a mixed close, with gains in Chicago but small losses in Kansas City and Minneapolis. Bull spreading was noted in Chicago contracts, where the front month attracted more buying interest than deferred contracts. However, this bounce may largely be technical in nature as funds cover some of their short positions. Meanwhile, Paris milling wheat left another small gap on the chart, with September closing at a new near-term low, which could continue to pressure the US wheat market.

  • This morning’s CPI data suggested that US inflation is easing, reinforcing the idea that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in September. This potential rate cut could impact the US Dollar Index and equity markets, both of which can influence wheat prices.

  • As of August 11, European Union soft wheat exports reached 3.1 mmt since the season began on July 1. According to the European Commission, this marks a 22% decline year-on-year, down from 4 mmt during the same period last year.

  • Romania’s agriculture minister stated that their 2024 wheat harvest, despite drought challenges, is expected to surpass last year’s by 1 mmt, based on preliminary data. For context, the 2023 Romanian wheat crop totaled 10.6 mmt.

  • Scattered rains are expected in the northern Plains through the rest of this week and possibly into next week. This could delay the spring wheat harvest and potentially cause quality concerns if precipitation is heavy. However, spring wheat remains highly rated in both North Dakota and Minnesota, with 81% and 89% rated good to excellent, respectively.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since mid-July, Chicago wheat has been rangebound between 514 on the bottom and 556 up top. Should prices close above 556, they could run into resistance around 580 on a move toward the 590 – 600 area. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The market appears to have found support just below the market near 575. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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8-13 End of Day: Minneapolis Wheat Treads Water, While Other Markets Sink

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market gave back most of its gains from yesterday as sellers regained control, bolstered by the prospect of record yields, continued farmer selling, and weakness in the soybean market.

  • Bearish supply data from yesterday’s WASDE report continued to loom over the soybean market as sellers returned for the 6th consecutive day and pushed the November contract to new contract lows. Falling Board crush margins from weaker soybean meal and oil also contributed to the weakness.

  • Soybean oil traded sharply lower following declines in both crude oil and palm oil. While slowing Chinese demand due to abundant supplies continued to weigh on soybean meal.

  • Lower corn and soybean prices, combined with another day of lower Matif wheat prices, weighed on the US wheat market, which saw both Chicago and KC lower on the day. In contrast, Minneapolis contracts had a mixed close as the prospect of a smaller spring wheat crop, declining ratings, and a slower than average harvest pace hang over the market.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the 6–10 and 8–14-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the month of July and to start August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling resumed in the corn market, giving back most of Monday’s gains after the USDA WASDE report. The market was pressured by the prospects of record yields, farmer selling, and strong selling in the soybean market

  • With the potential record yield per bushel on the table, and reduced acres from last year, total corn production is forecasted to be to be 195 mb below last year’s crop. The key will be demand going forward. While the USDA has added to the demand total for the 24/25 crop, the key stocks-to-use ratio is at 13.9% for next year (up 1.3% YOY), signaling a heavier available corn supply than last marketing year.

  • The USDA announced a flash export sale of corn this morning. Mexico stepped into the market and picked up 5.4 mb (137,160 mt) for the new marketing year.

  • The weekly Crop Progress report released on Monday afternoon pegged 67% of the crop as good to excellent, steady with last week and 1% higher than trade expectations. In terms of maturity, 60% of the crop was in dough stage and 16% was dented, signaling that fresh supplies may soon enter the pipeline. Both these maturity factors were trending ahead of 5-year averages.

  • December corn prices have stayed in the trading range that has been in place since late July. A range from 405 on top and 395 on the bottom has held most of the trading activity over the past couple of weeks.  

Above: Since August 2, September corn has been consolidating mostly between 378 and 392. Above 392 lies potentially heavy resistance between 397 and 417, a rally above which could put prices on track toward the 430 – 440 level. Otherwise, a break below 378 could put the market at risk of trading down towards 360.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With a key part of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the mid-1100s from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the sixth consecutive day after yesterday’s WASDE report put more pressure on the market and sent the November contract to new contract lows. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed conditions unchanged, and the 7-day forecast is bearish with rain across the Midwest. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.

  • This morning, CONAB raised its estimate for Brazilian soybean production to 147.382 mmt, which was up from 147.337 mmt last month.

  • Earlier today, the USDA reported private export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year. This was another new crop sale to China following previous rumors of soybean sales.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the good to excellent rating in soybeans unchanged at 68%, which is 9% higher than the rating at this time last year. 91% of the crop is blooming which compares to 86% last week and the 5-year average of 90%. 72% of the crop is setting pods.

  • Yesterday’s WASDE report was bearish for soybeans on nearly all fronts. The yield was raised above the average trade guess to 53.2 bpa from 52.0 bpa last month. Additionally, acreage was increased, production estimates rose, and new crop ending stocks were increased to 560 mb from last month’s 435 mb. Argentinian production was lowered slightly, but Brazilian production was unchanged.

Above: Given the soybean market’s recent slide, it is now showing signs of being very oversold, which can be supportive if a bullish catalyst enters the scene to turn prices higher. Should that happen, prices could encounter overhead resistance between 1000 and 1040 on a rally toward the 1080 – 1085 area. To the downside, a break below the 950 support area puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower in the winter contracts, led down by Chicago, while spring wheat saw a mixed close. The decline was driven by further weakness in Matif wheat futures, which left a gap lower on the chart yesterday. The September Matif contract finished at its lowest level since March. Additionally, the overall weakness in the US corn and soybean markets also contributed to the pressure on wheat prices today.

  • According to the USDA, 93% of the US winter wheat crop has been harvested compared to 91% on average. As for spring wheat, good to excellent ratings declined from 74% to 72%. This is still well above last year’s 42% rating for this time frame. Additionally, 18% of spring wheat has been harvested, compared to 20% last year and 21% on average.

  • The Egyptian tender for 3.8 mmt of wheat was a bit of a disappointment; in the end, they only purchased 280,000 mt for delivery in October. Of that total, 180,000 mt will be sourced from Ukraine with the remainder from Bulgaria. 

  • Below freezing temperatures have hit Argentina’s western crop growing regions over the past several days, exacerbating the drought already affecting the wheat crop. Compounding the issue, there is no rain expected in the forecast for the next seven days.

  • Ukrainian consultancy group ASAP Agri has increased their estimate of Ukraine’s 24/25 wheat exports to 14.6 mmt. This is a 12.3% jump from last month’s 13 mmt projection, and this is said to be a result of a bigger than expected harvest. They added that Ukraine may harvest 21.3 mmt of wheat this year, a 2 mmt increase from what was expected in July.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.

Above: Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The market appears to have found support just below the market near 575. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Above: Spring wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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8-12 End of Day: August WASDE Friendly for Corn, Unfriendly for Soybeans

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A record yield print of 183.1 bpa by the USDA was offset by a 700,000 acre drop in harvested acres to bring total 2024/25 carryout down to 2.073 billion bushels, 24 mb lower than last month’s estimate. Likely fund short covering after the WASDE report helped close December corn futures back above the $4 level.

  • Continued favorable weather to crop development and a bearish WADSE report kept the lower trend intact for soybean futures to start the week. With a record yield estimate of 53.2 bpa and a 1 million acre increase in harvested acres from June, 2024/25 US soybean ending stocks are now projected at 560 million bushels.

  • Wheat futures ended the day mixed following the August WADSE report with spring wheat futures higher and winter wheat futures lower. US ending stocks came in smaller than expected due mostly in part to a smaller projected yield for spring wheat compared to last month.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, the 8–14-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the month of July and to start August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A neutral USDA report helped trigger some short covering in the corn market as futures traded higher for the first time in five sessions. The daily close posted a bullish reversal on corn charts, which could provide some additional buying strength going into tonight’s session.

  • The USDA lowered projected harvested acres for corn to 82.7 million acres, down approximately 700,000 from the July totals. With the reduced acres, and strong crop rating, the USDA raised yield forecasts for this year’s corn crop to 183.1 bu/a, up 2.1 bu/acre from previous estimates. Key US corn producing states of Iowa (209 bu/a), Illinois (225 bu/a), and Indiana (207 bu/a) are expected to reach record yields this harvest.

  • The record yield potential offset the acres lost in the supply/demand balance sheet as new crop corn carry out was lowered slightly to 2.073 billion bushels, down 23 mb from July. To reach this target, the USDA increased corn export demand, but lowered domestic use slightly. Corn stock to use ratio is at 13.9%, which is still considered heavy in the market’s view.

  • Managed money exited 52,000 net short positions as of August 6, to a net short of 242,545 contracts.  In the past 4 weeks, funds have cut their net short position by nearly 110,000 net short contracts as prices have continued to trend lower. The pressure on prices has been increased by farmer selling and commercial selling into the corn market as producers in the US and South America are undersold in their corn position.

  • USDA weekly export inspections for corn were at 975,000 Mt (38.4 mb), down from last week’s totals. Total inspections in 2023-24 are now at 1.926 bb, up 37% from the previous year, and slightly ahead of USDA projections with only a couple weeks left in the marketing year.

Above: Since August 2, September corn has been consolidating mostly between 378 and 392. Above 392 lies potentially heavy resistance between 397 and 417, a rally above which could put prices on track toward the 430 – 440 level. Otherwise, a break below 378 could put the market at risk of trading down towards 360.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 6. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 52,551 contracts between July 30 – August 6, bringing their total position to a net short 242,545 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower following a bearish WASDE report and weakness in both soybean meal and oil. November soybeans reached their lowest level since January 2021 and are not far from the life of contract low. Weather is bearish as well with the majority of the Corn Belt receiving moisture and temperatures not too hot.

  • Today’s WASDE report came out more bearish than anticipated for soybeans with the USDA estimating the national yield at 53.2 bpa which was above the average trade guess of 52.5 bpa and above last month’s estimate of 52.0 bpa. Harvested acres were also increased by 1 million to 86.3 million acres which was well above the average trade estimates. Production was called higher at 4,589 million bushels, US stockpiles for 23/24 were unchanged, and for 24/25 they were increased to 560.0 mb from 435 mb last month. World stockpiles were increased to 134.3 mmt for 24/25 from 127.8 mmt last month.

  • This morning, the USDA said that 300,000 tons of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations. Of the 300,000 MT total, 100,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2023/2024 marketing year and 200,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. If China was behind the purchases, it would confirm some of the rumors that were going around.

  • The USDA released its weekly export inspection on Monday morning. Last week US exporters shipped 327,000 MT (12 mb), which was up slightly from last week. Total inspections in 2023-24 are now at 1.593 bb which is down 15% from the previous year with only a couple weeks left in the marketing year.  Export inspections are on pace to hit the USDA export target.

Above: The soybean market’s break below 1000 puts it at risk of sliding further toward the 985 support level, below which psychological support may come in near 950. Should current prices hold above 985 and turn back higher, overhead resistance remains in the 1035 – 1045 area with further resistance near 1082.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 6. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 9,575 contracts between July 30 – August 6, bringing their total position to a net short 169,016 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with modest losses in Chicago and Kansas City futures while posting slight gains in Minneapolis contracts.  Early pressure stemmed from Paris milling wheat futures, which gapped lower, despite a poor looking French crop that could see a 25% drop in production when compared with last year. A relatively neutral report for winter wheat did not allow much upside movement, but a drop of 34 mb to 544 mb of spring wheat production lent some support to that market.

  • On today’s WASDE report, the USDA reduced both planted and harvested wheat acreage to 46.3 ma and 37.9 ma respectively (both were reduced by 900,000 acres). Due to the drop, the USDA also lowered their total production forecast by 26 mb to 1.98 bb. They also increased the national yield by 0.4 to 52.2 bpa.

  • US wheat ending stocks for 23/24 were left unchanged at 702 mb, but for 24/25 they were reduced from 856 mb to 828 mb. Globally, the 23/24 carryout was raised from 261.0 mmt to 262.4 mmt, while the 24/25 carryout was reduced from 257.2 mmt to 256.6 mmt. Other notable data includes 24/25 production being cut 2 mmt in the EU, while being raised 2.1 mmt in Ukraine and 1 mmt in Australia.

  • Aside from today’s report, traders also received weekly export inspections. Wheat inspections at 23.9 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections to 155 mb, which is up 27% from last year. Exports were kept unchanged at 825 mb on today’s report, remaining 17% higher than the previous year.

  • APK-Inform has reportedly raised their estimate of the 2024 Ukrainian grain harvest to 55 mmt vs 52.76 mmt previously. This is due to a projected larger harvest of wheat and corn, and they also increased the export forecast from 36.16 mmt to 38.8 mmt. Of that total, 13.4 mmt may be wheat. Finally, the Ukrainian ag ministry has said that wheat harvest has reached 20.9 mmt as of August 4.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 6. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 6,284 contracts between July 30 – August 6, bringing their total position to a net short 71,332 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 6. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,154 contracts between July 30 – August 6, bringing their total position to a net short 36,038 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The market appears to have found support just below the market near 575. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 6. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 205 contracts between July 30 – August 6, bringing their total position to a net short 25,137 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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8-9 End of Day: Corn and Beans Lower, Wheat Higher Ahead of WASDE

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn prices slipped lower to end the week on a non-threatening forecast and likely continued farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of Monday’s WASDE report.

  • Despite multiple daily export flash sales this morning, soybean futures slid lower for a fourth consecutive session.

  • Wheat futures were the bright spot of the grain complex managing to close higher on the day as war tensions heightened between Russia and Ukraine.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, the 8–14-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since the release of the July WASDE, which surprised the market by keeping the 24/25 ending stocks figure around 2.1 billion bushels, Dec ‘25 corn has traded to a fresh contract low while managed funds re-established their record net short position. Even though the weather has been mostly favorable for the crop and the trade may be factoring in a higher potential yield, the USDA is expected to update its acreage estimates in the upcoming August WASDE report, which could shift lower due to the slow planting pace last spring. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • For the 4th consecutive session, corn prices bleed lower pushed by farmer selling, and weather forecasts that remain overall non-threatening. Dec corn pushed to new lows and was down 8 ¼ cents on the week.

  • Producer selling is limiting the market upside as grain is moving into the system. September basis contracts and producers moving old crop supplies keep selling pressure intact. The potential for a large harvest only adds some urgency to old crop corn movement.

  • Weather forecasts remain non-threatening for corn production. Long-range forecasts into mid-August are targeting cooler than normal temperatures. Rainfall looks more limited for the near term, but both warmer temperatures and rainfall chances look to increase going into the back half of August.

  • On Monday, the USDA will release the August Crop Production report. With the higher-than-average crop ratings, expectations for corn yield are to be over 182 bushels/acre, up from trendline of 181 bushels/acres from previous reports. There are some possible adjustments to planted and harvested acres for this report, but the supply picture will still be a limiting factor going forward.

Above: Since August 2, September corn has been consolidating mostly between 378 and 392. Above 392 lies potentially heavy resistance between 397 and 417, a rally above which could put prices on track toward the 430 – 440 level. Otherwise, a break below 378 could put the market at risk of trading down towards 360.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop. While weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates, the USDA is expected to update its acreage estimates in the upcoming August WASDE, which could be lower given the slow planting pace last spring. Therefore, any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the fourth consecutive day despite a multitude of export sales reported this morning. Trade is primarily focused on the good weather forecast and the USDA report on Monday that many analysts are expecting to be bearish. Soybean meal led the complex lower today, but soybean oil was higher along with higher crude and palm oil.

  • This morning, the USDA reported multiple export sales. They reported that 132,000 mt of soybeans were sold to China for 24/25, 100,000 mt of soybean meal were sold to Colombia, and 212,000 mt of soybeans were received for delivery to unknown destinations. These sales were encouraging but will need to continue to make a significant difference in prices.

  • Monday’s WASDE report is expected to show an increase in the soybean yield to 52.5 bpa with production estimates up 34 mb from July to 4.469 bb. The average trade estimate for 24/25 carryout is 472 mb, which is up 37 mb from July.

  • In Argentina, workers at a soybean crush plant have extended their strike to a third day as a result of insufficient wages. Shipments have been delayed for the biggest soybean meal and oil exporter just as harvest is wrapping up.

Above: The soybean market’s break below 1000 puts it at risk of sliding further toward the 985 support level, below which psychological support may come in near 950. Should current prices hold above 985 and turn back higher, overhead resistance remains in the 1035 – 1045 area with further resistance near 1082.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed higher, led by Chicago futures. Support may be coming from a number of recent large global tenders, as well as escalation between Ukraine and Russia, factoring some war premium back into the market.

  • The average pre-report estimate for US all wheat production comes in at 2.106 bb. This compares with 2.008 bb in the July report and to 1.812 bb last year. US ending stocks are predicted to remain unchanged for 23/24 at 702 mb, and for 24/25 are projected at 860 mb vs 856 mb in July. In addition, global 23/24 wheat carryout is expected to remain unchanged at 261.0 mmt, while 24/25 carryout is expected to slightly increase from 257.2 mmt to 257.3 mmt.

  • The French agriculture ministry lowered their estimate of the nation’s wheat production by 3.35 mmt to 26.3 mmt. If accurate, that would be down 25% from last year and also the smallest crop in almost 40 years. Additionally, their harvest is said to be 88% finished.

  • IKAR reportedly increased their estimate of Russian grain production by 1.5 mmt to 129.5 mmt. This compares to the Russian ag ministry’s 132 mmt estimate. For wheat in particular, IKAR increased the production forecast by 0.6 mmt to 83.8 mmt. For reference, the USDA is at 83.0 mmt.

  • According to their ag ministry, Ukraine’s harvest has reaped 20.94 mmt of wheat on 97% of the planted area. This exceeds the USDA estimate of 19.5 mmt. The ministry did not offer an average yield for the wheat harvest, but they reported that 27.3 mmt of other grains and 3.3 mmt of oilseeds were harvested as of August 9.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The market appears to have found support just below the market near 575. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.