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7-2 End of Day: Corn and Beans Close in the Green, But Well Off Their Highs

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Thursday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • With the prospect of a large crop looming, and carryover weakness from the wheat market, corn futures were unable to hold the majority of their earlier gains despite the reporting of a 100,000 mt flash sale.

  • Like corn, the soybean market was unable to hold most of its gains from earlier in the session. Good to excellent crop ratings that remain the highest since 2020 continue to add pressure, but sharply higher soybean oil lent support.

  • Soybean oil extended yesterday’s gains, closing sharply higher, supported by lower-than-expected soybean oil stocks from updated Census crush data. Meanwhile, soybean meal settled mixed, with the August contract closing higher while the deferred contracts closed lower.

  • A fast harvest pace and pressure from lower Matif wheat futures weighed on the wheat complex, which settled mostly lower on potential profit taking from yesterday’s rally.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6-10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the Monthly US Drought Outlook courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations. We will be looking to make another sales recommendation by July 8 if our upside objectives aren’t met by then.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures softened from early session gains to finish mixed on the session, as the prospects of large supplies, lack of consistent demand, and weakness in the wheat market weighed on corn futures.

  • Overall demand has become more stagnant for corn, but old crop USDA targets will still likely be reached. New crop export demand has been disappointing compared to the last handful of years. Demand will be a key for the market to find stability. The USDA announced a flash sale of corn, with Columbia purchasing 100,000 mt (3.9 MB) of old crop corn.

  • On Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, the USDA reported that corn conditions fell to 67% good to excellent, down 2% from last week, and slightly below market expectations. This rating is well above last year’s 51% G/E rating.

  • The Brazilian Real is trading at its lowest level versus the US Dollar since January 2022.  The weakening Brazilian currency improves the competitiveness of Brazilian corn and soybeans versus the US on the global export market.

  • Weather forecasts will remain a major focus for the markets going into the key July weather time frame. While the forecast remains on the warm side, precipitation remains active into the middle of the month. Currently, weather is non-threatening overall to crop production.

Above: Bearish stocks and acreage numbers pushed prices through the February low of 408 ¾. The next level of potential support lies near 393. Initial overhead resistance may enter the market between 420 and 430.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1260 – 1290 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher but faded significantly from their highs earlier this morning, which saw prices in the August contract up as much as 16 cents. Bull spreading between August and November soybeans continued today with the spread widening. Soybean meal was bull spread as well with the front month higher but deferred lower, and soybean oil was higher.

  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed no changes to the good to excellent ratings that remained at 67%. Trade was expecting a slight 1-point decline. 20% of the crop is blooming, which is on par with a year ago and compares to 8% last week. 3% of the crop is setting pods which is also on par with last year’s pace.

  • Domestic crush demand has been very firm and has been a supportive factor with export demand so slow. 192 mb of soybeans were crushed in May which is higher than a year ago. Profitable crush margins are supporting this demand and are also contributing to the bull spreading as producers buy cash soybeans.

  • Soybean oil was higher for the fifth consecutive day and was a large source of support for soybeans throughout the day. Today, the USDA said that renewable biodiesel capacity was up 4.1 billion pounds in April compared to a year ago at that time. In addition, India may be placing higher tariffs on Chinese goods which could cause trade conflicts that could move China to buy soybean oil from the US instead.

Above: Support in the area of 1130 – 1125 appears to be holding. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1160 – 1165 with further resistance up towards 1185 – 1200. Otherwise, if they retreat further, support may be found near 1045.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite higher closes for corn and soybeans, wheat failed to follow suit. The pressure from winter wheat harvest, a lower close for Paris milling wheat futures, and potential profit-taking after yesterday’s rally may be contributing factors. However, Chicago and Kansas City September contracts managed to hold the 10-day moving average as support today after rallying above it yesterday.

  • Additional pressure may have come from yesterday’s Crop Progress report, which showed winter wheat harvest at 54% complete, compared to the 39% average and 33% a year ago. This harvest pressure could limit any upside rallies for now. Furthermore, spring wheat conditions improved by 1% to 72% good to excellent, with only 4% of the crop rated poor to very poor.

  • According to Argus, Ukraine’s 24/25 wheat crop production is estimated at 20.3 mmt, an increase from their previous estimate but still 2.2 mmt below last year’s level. The year-on-year decline is attributed to lower yields and harvested acreage.

  • The EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit (MARS) estimates that Russia’s 24/25 wheat production may be below average, forecasting a crop of 82.5 mmt, about 5% under the average and down from 93.6 mmt in 2023. Frost damage in May and drought in June are cited as reasons for the yield decline.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance could be found near 620 with heavier resistance up towards 650 – 660. If the 576 area doesn’t hold, they may find further support between 560 – 550.

Above: Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Grain Market Insider is continuing to monitor the markets and may begin considering the first sales targets after July 8.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support around 600, and considering the oversold conditions of the market, a rally back towards the 662 – 686 resistance area may be possible. Otherwise, a market close below 596 support could suggest a further decline towards 542.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-1 End of Day: Soybeans and Wheat Rebound from Friday’s Weakness

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Thursday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Weak corn export inspection numbers and the negativity from Friday’s report initially weighed on the corn market, which rebounded late in the session with support from the higher wheat and soybean markets, closing near unchanged and fractionally mixed.

  • Following choppy two-sided trade, soybeans settled the day in the upper end of the trading range led by the August contract. Additional support came from sharply higher soybean oil, while meal closed mixed.

  • Soybean oil was the strong leg of the soybean complex with the August contract gaining 4.45% on the day. Support came from strong usage numbers for renewable diesel production, a near-record fund short, and higher energy prices.

  • The wheat complex posted double-digit gains across all three classes, supported by solid export inspections, oversold conditions, and strong Matif wheat. Additionally, the winter wheat harvest is likely past the 50% mark, potentially easing some harvest pressure.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks for July, courtesy of NOAA and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, we have several targets in place to provide both upside and downside coverage. While targeting 490 – 510 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are also targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations. We will be looking to make another sales recommendation by July 8 if our upside objectives aren’t met by then.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market fought off early session lows, supported by the strength in wheat and soybean markets. Corn futures finished the day mixed with light selling pressure in the front end of the market.          

  • The corn market is still processing the bearish Crop Acreage and Grain Stocks report from Friday. The large jump in supply will be a major limiting force over top in the weeks ahead. 

  • The USDA will release the next round of crop ratings on Monday afternoon. The corn crop is expected to slip to 68% Good/Excellent, down 1% from last week. 

  • The USDA’s weekly export inspections report was disappointing on Monday. Last week US exporters shipped 820,000 mt (33.4 mb) of corn, down from 1.1 mmt last week. The past couple weeks, corn export sales have shed some of their strength and export inspection were lighter this week. Total inspections in 23/24 are now at 1.672 bb, up 28% from last year.

  • Weather forecasts will remain a major focus for the markets going into the key July weather time frame. While the forecast remains on the warm side, precipitation remains active into the middle of the month. Currently, weather is non-threatening overall to crop production.

Above: Bearish stocks and acreage numbers pushed prices through the February low of 408 ¾. The next level of potential support lies near 393. Initial overhead resistance may enter the market between 420 and 430.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 86,204 contracts between June 19 – 25, bringing their total position to a net short 277,666 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1260 – 1290 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher and were bull spread with the August contract, which is the new front month, up 12 ½ cents while the November contract closed only 7 cents higher. The spreading indicates the demand for cash soybeans but anticipation of a large crop coming in November. Soybean meal was mixed with the front months higher and deferred months lower, and soybean oil was higher.

  • Friday’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report was mostly friendly for soybeans. The USDA estimated US soybean planted acres at 86.1 million, which is below the March estimate of 86.51 million and compares to 83.60 million last year. The decrease in acres can be attributed to the increase in corn acres reported last week.

  • Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress report, and estimates range from 63 to 68% for the good/excellent rating which was 67% last week. The average trade guess is 66%, but it could come in higher given the improved weather conditions last week in the central and eastern Corn Belt.

  • According to Friday’s CFTC report, funds were heavy sellers across the ag complex and sold 23,693 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 129,663 contracts. Short sellers likely bought back a portion of their position today following Friday’s report.

Above: Support in the area of 1130 – 1125 appears to be holding. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1160 – 1165 with further resistance up towards 1185 – 1200. Otherwise, if they retreat further, support may be found near 1045.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 23,693contracts between June 19 – 25, bringing their total position to a net short 129,663 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with double-digit gains across all three US futures classes. With the winter wheat harvest likely past the halfway mark, some harvest pressure on the market may start to ease. Paris milling wheat futures also had a strong day, with the front-month September contract gaining 5.50 euros and closing back above the 200-day moving average, indicating signs of recovery. Additionally, the fact that US wheat was technically oversold provided further support to the market today.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections at 11.4 mb brought 24/25 total inspections to 50 mb. This is up 24% from a year ago and above the USDA’s estimated pace so far. Wheat exports for 24/25 are projected to be 800 mb.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values finished last week at $226 per mt, down from $231 the previous week. These declining values may limit any potential rallies in the US market. Additionally, SovEcon reported that Russia exported 790,000 mt of grain last week, with 680,000 mt being wheat.

  • According to crop agency Emater, the state of Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil is expected to harvest 4.07 mmt of wheat this season, which is about 55% higher than the previous season. This is despite estimates that planted area at, 1.3 million hectares, will be down about 13% from the year prior. An anticipated major jump in wheat yields, by a whopping 77%, is expected to offset the smaller acreage.

  • According to their supply ministry, Egypt is expected to increase purchases of wheat from farmers to 3.6 mmt by mid-July. As it currently stands, Egypt has bought 3.55 mmt since the season began in April. The ministry also announced that the local wheat buying season will end in mid-July, stating that their reserves are sufficient for approximately six and a half months.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 17,755 contracts between June 19 – 25, bringing their total position to a net short 70,487 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance could be found near 620 with heavier resistance up towards 650 – 660. If the 576 area doesn’t hold, they may find further support between 560 – 550.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Jun 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,028 contracts between June 19 – 25, bringing their total position to a net short 37,072 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat.) At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support around 600, and considering the oversold conditions of the market, a rally back towards the 662 – 686 resistance area may be possible. Otherwise, a market close below 596 support could suggest a further decline towards 542.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 10,653 contracts between June 19 – 25, bringing their total position to a net short 13,918 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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6-28 End of Day: Bearish Stocks and Acreage Data Sends Corn Tumbling

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market settled with double digit losses through the July ’25 contract after it tumbled to fresh multi-year lows as the USDA reported June 1 corn stocks and planted acres well above analyst expectations.

  • The soybean market closed mixed, in line with the results of today’s stocks and acreage reports. As higher than expected June 1 stocks weighed on the front months, while lower than expected planted acres supported the deferred contracts.

  • The wheat complex closed mostly lower across all three classes, as carryover weakness from sharply lower corn weighed on prices. June 1 stocks, as reported by the USDA came in higher than expected, while planted acres for all wheat came in towards the low end of expectations.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the updated US 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, we have several targets in place to provide both upside and downside coverage. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are also targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations. We will be looking to make another sales recommendation by July 8 if our upside objectives aren’t met by then.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Bearish USDA reports for planted acres and grain stocks broke the corn market to new lows for the move. For the week, September corn lost 33 cents and December corn fell 32 ½. Today was the lowest close for December corn since July 2021.

  • On the USDA Planted Acreage report, the USDA survey projected 91.475 million acres, up 1.6% from the March estimate and well above expectations at 90.350 million acres. The USDA stated that 3.36 million acres still needed planting at the time of data collection. Those missing acres will be determined in future reports (Aug/Sept) as planted acres, unharvested acres, or possible prevent plant acres.

  • For Quarterly Grain Stocks, the USDA totaled 4.997 billion bushels of corn at the end of the second quarter. This was up 22% from June 1 last year, an increase of 890 mb. Regarding the stocks, 3.03 billion bushels remain in on-farm storage, up 37% from last year. The large on-farm storage could limit rally potential in the corn market as those bushels move.

  • With the report in the rear view, the focus will shift back to the weather. Forecasts remain friendly for crop growth with temperatures staying above normal, but also precipitation, into early July. These conditions are likely to limit any potential corn market rallies in the near term.

Above: Bearish stocks and acreage numbers pushed prices through the February low of 408 ¾. The next level of potential support lies near 393. Initial overhead resistance may enter the market between 420 and 430.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1300 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day bear spread with losses in the front months but a higher close in November futures despite a bullish acreage report that saw expected planted acreage down from trade estimates, but a slightly negative stocks report. Soybeans traded higher at midday but following the reports, faded into the close. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was slightly higher.

  • Today’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report was mostly friendly for soybeans. The USDA estimated US soybean planted acres at 86.1 million which is below the March estimate of 86.51 million and compares to 83.60 million last year. The decrease in acres can be attributed to the increase in corn acres reported today.

  • While the decrease in planted acreage was friendly, the Quarterly Stocks portion of the report was not. Soybeans stored in all positions as of June 1 totaled 970 million bushels which was above expectations and up 22% from the previous year. On-farm stocks totaled 466 million bushels which is up 44% from a year ago.

  • Today was First Notice Day for July grains, so the August contract will be taking over as the new front month. For the week, August soybeans lost 13 ½ cents to 1133 ½, August soybean meal lost $2.70 to $346.00, and August soybean oil lost 0.13 cents to 44.07 cents. Overall, pressure has come from a relatively good weather forecast and expectations of a large soybean crop.

Above: Support in the area of 1130 – 1125 appears to be holding. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1160 – 1165 with further resistance up towards 1185 – 1200. Otherwise, if they retreat further, support may be found near 1045.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat mostly closed lower across all three US categories. The main feature today was the USDA’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports. While the stocks number was bearish, the acreage figure was somewhat positive. This suggests that wheat might have been following corn lower rather than reacting solely to its own report results. With winter wheat harvest likely well over 50% done at this point, wheat has the potential for a post-harvest rally in the not-too-distant future.

  • The USDA pegged June 1 wheat stocks at 702 mb, which was above the average trade guess of 682 mb, and also exceeded the high end of pre-report estimates at 699 mb. For reference June 1 wheat stocks of 2023 were 570 mb, meaning today’s estimate was 23% higher than a year ago.

  • All wheat planted acreage came in at 47.2 million acres, which was on the lower end of estimates, and compared to an average pre-report guess of 47.58 million. Today’s estimate was also below the March projection of 47.5 million and was a 5% drop from last year’s 49.58 million. Of today’s total, 33.8 million acres are expected to be winter wheat, with 11.3 million acres dedicated to spring wheat.

  • Aside from today’s report there was not much fresh news in the wheat market. However, one item worth noting is that India’s government has announced limited import quotas of ag goods, in an effort to reduce food inflation. While these measures do not specifically address wheat, there is still talk that India may be a net importer this year to rebuild reserves.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance could be found near 620 with heavier resistance up towards 650 – 660. If the 576 area doesn’t hold, they may find further support between 560 – 550.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat.) At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support around 600, and considering the oversold conditions of the market, a rally back towards the 662 – 686 resistance area may be possible. Otherwise, a market close below 596 support could suggest a further decline towards 542.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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6-27 End of Day: Wheat Settles Strong While Corn and Soybeans Close Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Strength in neighboring wheat was unable to rally the corn market, which saw continued selling pressure for the sixth consecutive day across the market except for the December ’25 contract. A heavy supply picture and looming First Notice Day on Friday contributed to the weakness.

  • Despite a flash sale of 24/25 soybeans to unknown destinations (China?), poor export sales weighed heavily on the bean market, which closed near the day’s lows after trading higher in the overnight session.

  • Both soybean meal and oil closed slightly mixed and near unchanged. Soybean oil saw net cancellations in this morning’s export sales report, while meal sales came in at the top end of expectations.

  • Oversold conditions, higher Matif wheat, and reduced wheat acreage in Canada all lent support to the wheat complex which closed with double digit gains across all three classes.  

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the updated US Drought Monitor and 4-week classification changes, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since mid-June the front month corn market has been trending lower on solid crop ratings and a non-threatening weather forecast. While solid demand has been a prominent supportive feature of the market, an old crop carryout near 2.0 billion bushels and the prospect of an even higher carryout number for new crop, has kept upside rallies in check. The 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy December ’24 corn 470 and 510 calls in equal quantities. The Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls are about the least expensive they’ve been since each strike began trading back in 2022. Last year, Grain Market Insider also recommended buying call options ahead of the typically volatile, growing season months. Those call options proved to be invaluable as they allowed us to recommend selling into the sharp weather driven rally of June 2023, without having to worry about if the market continued to rally, like in 2012. That same call buying strategy is one that Grain Market Insider is looking to leverage now for your 2024 crop to give you the confidence to make sales into any sharp rallies.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Despite a strong move higher in the wheat market, corn futures saw further selling pressure as the influence of First Notice Day and the pricing of basis contracts limited the corn market.

  • Friday is First Notice Day for July corn. With that deadline, long futures positions must be exited or risk delivery. While in this window, producers with basis contracts for corn need to choose to price the product or roll to a different month.

  • Weekly corn exports sales were within expectations in the USDA’s weekly export sales report. Last week, US exporters sold 21.3 mb (542,000 mt) of old crop corn, and 5.5 mb (139,300 mt) of new crop, all within market expectations. Total corn sales commitments now total 2.101 bb for 23/24, up 38% from last year.

  • The USDA will release the Quarterly Grain Stocks and Planted Acres report on Friday, June 28. Expectations are for corn stocks to be 4.873 billion bushels, up nearly 770 mb over last year, and planted acres to increase nearly 300,000 acres to 90.35 million acres. The heavy supply picture and possible increase in acres are pressuring the market.

Above: The corn market appears to be on track to test the 427 – 420 support area. If this area holds and prices turn higher, they could target 461, with potential resistance near 450 and the 50-day moving average. Should prices slide further, they may find support around the February low of 408 ¾.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since trading toward the 200-day moving average and peaking near 1260, front month soybeans have been on the decline and appear on track to test the February low around 1128. Though domestic crush demand has been good, export demand has lagged, and like corn, the prospect of a higher 24/25 carryout looms, adding overhead resistance to prices. With much of the growing season in front of the market, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1300 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for a third consecutive day as selling pressure continues on the prospect of good weather for the central Corn Belt and the anticipation of a large crop. Tomorrow is also First Notice Day for July futures which may have had a negative impact on futures. Both soybean meal and oil were mixed with the front months higher and deferred contracts lower.

  • Today’s export sales report showed an increase of soybean export sales by 10.4 mb in 23/24 and 3.7 mb for 24/25. This was on the lower end of trade expectations. Last week’s export shipments of 14.4 mb were above the 13.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to Egypt, Mexico, and the Netherlands.

  • Tomorrow, the USDA will release its Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acres reports. Analysts estimate that the number of soybean planted acres will come in at 86.753 million, which would be slightly higher than the planting intentions numbers of 86.510 million reported in March. Quarterly soybean stocks as of June 1 are estimated to come in at 0.962 billion bushels which would be higher than last year.

  • While export demand has been sluggish overall, this morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. If this was China making the purchase, it would be their first purchase of new crop US soybeans.

Above: The soybean market appears to have found support around 1140. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area. Otherwise, they remain at risk of testing the 1130 – 1125 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was finally able to stop the bleeding, ending with double digit gains across all three classes. Higher Matif wheat futures lent support, as did the vastly oversold conditions of the market from a technical perspective. The US Dollar also took a bit of a breather, falling back below 106 and easing some of the pressure on wheat.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 24.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 11.9 mb fell below the 15.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 800 mb. Sales commitments, now at 224 mb for 24/25, are 45% higher than a year ago.

  • Pre-report estimates for tomorrow’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report offer a slight bearish bias. Stocks as of June 1 are anticipated to come in at 682 mb, well above last year’s 570 mb figure. Additionally, all wheat acreage at 47.58 million is expected to see a slight bump from the March estimate of 47.50 million. For reference, this is still below last year’s 49.58 million acres planted.

  • This morning’s data from Stats Canada was supportive and may have helped contribute to the rally. All wheat planted acreage in 2024 was down 1.1% to 26.6 million acres. This falls below the average pre-report estimate of 27.2 million, and the March estimate of 27.0 million. Spring wheat acreage in particular was down 2.8% to 18.9 million acres.

  • According to the USDA as of June 25, about 21% of US winter wheat areas are experiencing drought conditions, up from only 17% the week prior. Additionally, Spring wheat also saw a slight increase in drought area, from 3% to 5% for the same time period.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance could be found near 620 with heavier resistance up towards 650 – 660. If the 476 area doesn’t hold, they may find further support between 570 – 550.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat.) At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support around 600, and considering the oversold conditions of the market, a rally back towards the 662 – 686 resistance area may be possible. Otherwise, a market close below 596 support could suggest a further decline towards 542.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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6-26 End of Day: Markets Close Mixed at Midweek

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Bears remain in control of the corn market as the lead months close lower for the seventh time in eight sessions. Anticipation of a potentially bearish Stocks and Acreage report and the pricing of basis contracts ahead of First Notice Day added to the negative sentiment.

  • Despite trading higher in the overnight session and for much of the day, sellers took control of the soybean market aided by declines in soybean meal.

  • The wheat complex settled in a mixed fashion after trading higher across the board earlier in the day, as harvest pressure remains a limiting factor, along with continued strength in the US dollar, which traded above the 106 level for the first time since May 1.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the updated US 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since mid-April, the front month corn market has been in a broad trading range bound mostly by 435 on the bottom and 475 up top. While solid demand has been a prominent supportive feature of the market along with US and South American weather, an old crop carryout near 2.0 billion bushels and the prospect of an even higher carryout number for new crop, has kept upside rallies in check. The 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy December ’24 corn 470 and 510 calls in equal quantities. The Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls are about the least expensive they’ve been since each strike began trading back in 2022. Last year, Grain Market Insider also recommended buying call options ahead of the typically volatile, growing season months. Those call options proved to be invaluable as they allowed us to recommend selling into the sharp weather driven rally of June 2023, without having to worry about if the market continued to rally, like in 2012. That same call buying strategy is one that Grain Market Insider is looking to leverage now for your 2024 crop to give you the confidence to make sales into any sharp rallies.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures traded lower for the seventh time in the past eight sessions as July and December corn futures pushed to new lows for the recent move. July corn closed under the most recent February low as the chart continues to show technical damage.

  • Bearish forces remain in the corn market and grain markets in general. Weather forecasts remain friendly for crop development, potential bearish USDA planted acres and grain stock report, overall demand concerns, and pricing of basis contracts with First Notice Day in July coming this week have helped push the bearish sentiment and price action. 

  • The USDA will release the Quarterly grain stocks and Planted Acres report on Friday, June 28. Expectations are for corn stocks to be nearly 770 mb over last year and planted acres to increase to 90.35 million acres.  The heavy supply picture and possible acre increase are being priced in the market.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Last week’s export sales were disappointing at 511,000 mt. The market will look for some recovery in those sales at these lower price levels.

  • Weekly daily ethanol production slipped last week to an average of 1.043 million barrels/day, down 1.3% from last week. The amount of corn used for the week is estimated at 103.53 million bushels, which was below the pace needed to reach USDA targets for the marketing year.

Above: The corn market appears to be on track to test the 427 – 420 support area. If this area holds and prices turn higher, they could target 461, with potential resistance near 450 and the 50-day moving average. Should prices slide further, they may find support around the February low of 408 ¾.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since trading toward the 200-day moving average and peaking near 1260, front month soybeans have been on the decline and appear on track to test the February low around 1128. Though domestic crush demand has been good, export demand has lagged, and like corn, the prospect of a higher 24/25 carryout looms, adding overhead resistance to prices. With much of the growing season in front of the market, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1300 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after mixed trade throughout the day which saw prices higher around midday before fading into the close with the rest of the grain complex. Pressure has been coming from a wet 14-day forecast for the central and eastern Corn Belt, and trade has seemingly ignored the potential damage done in the northwest due to flooding. Soybean meal closed lower while soybean oil was higher.

  • On Friday, the USDA will release its Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acres reports. Analysts are estimating that the number of soybean planted acres will come in at 86.753 million which would be slightly higher than the planting intentions numbers of 86.510 million reported in March. Quarterly soybean stocks as of June 1 are estimated to come in at 0.962 billion bushels which would be higher than last year.

  • US export demand has been sluggish with the bulk of business going to Brazil and Argentina as they remain more competitive. China has purchased some old crop soybeans but has been hesitant to purchase any new crop soybeans so far. Meanwhile, export group ANEC has reported that Brazilian soybean exports for June would reach 14.5 mmt,

  • It’s estimated that funds hold a net short position of approximately 200,000 contracts between soybeans and soybean oil and are long approximately 97,000 contracts of soybean meal as of Wednesday. Yesterday, it was estimated that the funds sold an additional 10,000 contracts of soybeans.

Above: The soybean market appears to have found support around 1140. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area. Otherwise, they remain at risk of testing the 1130 – 1125 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Early gains in the wheat market gave way to late session weakness that resulted in a mixed close. While Kansas City futures were higher across the board, Chicago and Minneapolis contracts finished on both sides of unchanged. Part of the weakness may be a result of the US Dollar Index, which rallied back above the 106 level for the first time since May 1. Harvest pressure remains a factor, running roughly double the average pace as of Monday’s crop progress report.

  • Lower wheat prices may have sparked some global buying interest. Egypt bought 470,000 mt in their tender at roughly $22 per mt under their previous purchase. Russia and Romania received most of the business at 180,000 mt each, with the rest fulfilled by Ukraine and Bulgaria.

  • SovEcon is reported to have reduced their estimate of Ukraine’s 24/25 wheat production by 1.2 mmt to 20.4 mmt. For reference, this is still higher than the USDA figure of 19.5 mmt. Additionally, SovEcon has said that Ukraine’s 24/25 wheat exports may drop 25% year over year to 13.6 mmt. In related news, warm and dry weather is expected to return to southwest Russia and eastern Ukraine by the end of the week.

  • Canada’s 24/25 planted wheat area is expected to come in at 27.2 million acres according to a Bloomberg survey, a bump up from the 27.0 million acre estimate in March. Stats Canda will release the official data tomorrow, June 27, at 8:30 AM eastern. For reference 2023 acreage was 27.0 million.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat continues to show signs of being oversold as it remains in a downtrend established in late May. Oversold conditions can be supportive if a bullish catalyst enters the scene to turn prices back higher. For now, Sept ’24 appears on track to test the 550 – 520 support area from last spring. Should that area hold and prices turn around, overhead resistance may come in around 595 – 605.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance could be found near 620 with heavier resistance up towards 650 – 660. If the 476 area doesn’t hold, they may find further support between 570 – 550.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat.) At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: September Minneapolis wheat is extremely oversold, which could be supportive if prices turn higher. In that case, resistance may be encountered near 650. Otherwise, prices might be on track to test support around 600.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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6-25 End of Day: Grains Settle in the Red as Sellers Remain in Control

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • An active weather pattern and overall solid crop ratings, that are the highest since 2020, for this year’s corn crop, kept sellers engaged in today’s trade. December corn settled two cents off the day’s low of a 12-cent top to bottom range.

  • Pressured by sharply lower soybean oil and soybean meal, soybeans were unable to find support from lower than expected good/excellent crop ratings. November beans led the old crop contracts lower and closed 4 ¼ cents off the low of a 24 ½ cent range.

  • Sellers remain active in the wheat complex as harvest pressure, lower Matif wheat, and falling Russian export values keep playing on the same broken record and weigh on prices. All three wheat classes settled at the low end of their ranges after trading higher on the day in the overnight session.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the updated US 6-10 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since mid-April, the front month corn market has been in a broad trading range bound mostly by 435 on the bottom and 475 up top. While solid demand has been a prominent supportive feature of the market along with US and South American weather, an old crop carryout near 2.0 billion bushels and the prospect of an even higher carryout number for new crop, has kept upside rallies in check. The 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2023 corn crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report and a relatively benign 8–14-day weather outlook, we are recommending selling the last of the old crop corn here. The risk of a lower trend into month’s end looks to be increasing. Then on the 28th of June, we have the uncertainty of the Grain Stocks and Acreage reports, which is one of the most volatile report days of the year. If that report day ends up being overall bearish, we’ve seen before where the market can shed 3% or more of its price. So given all these factors, and that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 corn crop at this time.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ’24 corn 470 and 510 calls in equal quantities with a total net spend of approximately 29 cents plus commission and fees. The Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls are about the least expensive they’ve been since each strike began trading back in 2022. Last year, Grain Market Insider also recommended buying call options ahead of the typically volatile, growing season months. Those call options proved to be invaluable as they allowed us to recommend selling into the sharp weather driven rally of June 2023, without having to worry about if the market continued to rally, like in 2012. That same call buying strategy is one that Grain Market Insider is looking to leverage now for your 2024 crop to give you the confidence to make sales into any sharp rallies.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure remained in the grain markets as corn futures saw losses on the day’s session. December corn pushed to a new low for the move as it took out yesterday’s low on overall good crop ratings and active precipitation on the weather radar that kept the sellers motivated. 

  • The USDA released the latest crop ratings on Monday afternoon. The current corn crop was rated 69% good/excellent, down 3% from last week, but meeting analyst expectations. A rating of this level still reflects a trendline or higher potential yield at this point. Eastern corn belt states saw ratings slip as those crops dealt with a second week of hot and drier conditions.

  • The corn market saw rain on the radar during the session as a system ranged from Eastern Iowa through Ohio during most of the day. While coverage and precipitation totals are still undetermined, areas that needed rainfall seem to be receiving beneficial rains.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn to Mexico this morning. Mexico purchased 209,931 mt (8.3 mb) of corn split between the current and next marketing year. Of that total 22,000 mt is for the 23/24 marketing year and 188,000 mt is for the 24/25 marketing year.

  • Managed funds are still holding a large short position in the corn market. As of June 18, funds were net short 191,000 corn contracts, which was reduced by 20,000 contracts week over week. The recent selling pressure indicated that the funds have likely grown this short position as prices are pressured by favorable weather forecasts.

Above: The corn market appears to be on track to test the 427 – 420 support area. If this area holds and prices turn higher, they could target 461, with potential resistance near 450 and the 50-day moving average. Should prices slide further, they may find support around the February low of 408 ¾.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 20,817 contracts between June 12 – 18, bringing their total position to a net short 191,462 contracts.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since trading toward the 200-day moving average and peaking near 1260, front month soybeans have been on the decline and appear on track to test the February low around 1128. Though domestic crush demand has been good, export demand has lagged, and like corn, the prospect of a higher 24/25 carryout looms, adding overhead resistance to prices. With much of the growing season in front of the market, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1320 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower today with the November contract closing at the lowest level since August of 2021. Yesterday, futures swung wildly lower before recovering for a higher close but today, they were unable to recover despite crop progress showing crop ratings falling. Both soybean meal and oil closed significantly lower as well as trade expects a large soybean crop.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed the soybean good/excellent rating falling by 3 points to 67% which was 1 point below the average trade estimate and compares to 51% from a year ago. 90% of the soybean crop has emerged which compares to 87% last year, and 8% of the crop is blooming.

  • On Friday, the USDA will release its Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acres reports. Analysts are estimating that the number of soybean planted acres will come in at 86.753 million which would be slightly higher than last month’s guess of 86.510 million. Quarterly soybean stocks as of June 1 are estimated to come in at 0.962 billion bushels which would be higher than last month.

  • Monday’s CFTC report showed funds selling additional contracts as of June 18. They added 30,090 contracts to their net short position bringing it to 105,970 contracts and have likely added more shorts since that day.

Above: The soybean market appears to have found support around 1140. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area. Otherwise, they remain at risk of testing the 1130 – 1125 area.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 30,090 contracts between June 12 – 18, bringing their total position to a net short 105,970 contracts.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across the board yet again, with the same old story. A combination of harvest pressure, lower Paris futures, a higher US Dollar, and falling Russian values are all to blame. Looking at the silver lining, however, soft wheat yields in Europe have fallen to the five-year average due to declines in Romania, Italy, and the Netherlands. Further declines there may provide some support to the oversold US market.

  • According to the USDA, winter wheat condition improved 3% to 52% good/excellent, reflecting the better than anticipated yields in the Southern Plains. In addition, 40% of winter wheat is said to be harvested which is well above both the 5-year average pace of 25% and last year’s 21%. Spring wheat conditions did slip 5% to 71% good to excellent due to flooding in the northwest. Also, 18% of the crop is headed which is in line with 5-year average but below 25% from the year prior.

  • Early wheat harvest results in Russia are reported to show better than expected yields. This is despite the hot and dry pattern, and analysts are now predicting a crop of 80-82 mmt. While this is still well below the early season estimates up to 94 mmt, it is an improvement from more recent sub-80 mmt projections.

  • Indian wheat stocks are the lowest in 16 years at 7.5 mmt. There is also talk that India may remove their 44% import tax on wheat – this would allow for an estimated 2-4 mmt of imports. Though much of that is expected to be sourced from Russia, it may still provide some bullish support to the market.

  • On a bearish note, La Nina may be weaker than originally thought. Therefore, according to the Rosario Grain Exchange, there is better hope for Argentina’s 24/25 crop season. They are currently planting the 24/25 wheat crop. Normally, La Nina means a drier pattern for Argentina, which caused crop losses form them last year.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat continues to show signs of being oversold as it remains in a downtrend established in late May. Oversold conditions can be supportive if a bullish catalyst enters the scene to turn prices back higher. For now, Sept ’24 appears on track to test the 550 – 520 support area from last spring. Should that area hold and prices turn around, overhead resistance may come in around 595 – 605.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 7,616 contracts between June 12 – 18, bringing their total position to a net short 52,732 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance could be found near 620 with heavier resistance up towards 650 – 660. If the 476 area doesn’t hold, they may find further support between 570 – 550.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Jun18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 12,636 contracts between June 12 – 18, bringing their total position to a net short 29,044 contracts.

Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat.) At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: September Minneapolis wheat is extremely oversold, which could be supportive if prices turn higher. In that case, resistance may be encountered near 650. Otherwise, prices might be on track to test support around 600.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,800 contracts between June 12 – 18, bringing their total position to a net short 3,265 contracts.

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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6-24 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Settle off Their Lows

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market found support near the February low in the December contract and closed well off the day’s lows, likely due to traders covering short positions. This support was influenced by the potential for reduced good-to-excellent crop ratings and strength from neighboring soybeans.

  • With support from sharply higher old crop soybean meal and expectations of lower crop ratings soybeans closed well off their lows led by the old crop contracts.

  • Despite decent weekly export inspections, the wheat complex closed mostly lower as prices remained under pressure from lower Russian export prices and the ongoing northern hemisphere harvest.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the updated US 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since mid-April, the front month corn market has been in a broad trading range bound mostly by 435 on the bottom and 475 up top. While solid demand has been a prominent supportive feature of the market along with US and South American weather, an old crop carryout near 2.0 billion bushels and the prospect of an even higher carryout number for new crop, has kept upside rallies in check. The 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2023 corn crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report and a relatively benign 8–14-day weather outlook, we are recommending selling the last of the old crop corn here. The risk of a lower trend into month’s end looks to be increasing. Then on the 28th of June, we have the uncertainty of the Grain Stocks and Acreage reports, which is one of the most volatile report days of the year. If that report day ends up being overall bearish, we’ve seen before where the market can shed 3% or more of its price. So given all these factors, and that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 corn crop at this time.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures pulled off session lows supported by strength in the soybean market, and the prospect of reduced crop ratings on this week’s report triggered some short covering at the end of the session.

  • The USDA will release weekly crop ratings on Monday afternoon. Expectations are for the corn crop to be rated at 69% good to excellent, down 3% from last week. Recent hot weather across the southeastern corn belt, and heavy rainfall in the northwestern corn belt should limit crop ratings. Given the weather extremes over the past week, traders likely squared up positions going into the afternoon report.

  • December corn futures traded through the February low of 446 during the session but rallied to close above that level. Holding this key support point may indicate a short-term bottom as the market looks towards Friday’s USDA planted acres and grain stocks report. The report is one of the most volatile reports of the marketing year.

  • Weekly export inspections for corn remain strong. Last week, US exports shipped 44 mb (1.118 mmt) of corn. Currently, total inspections for the 23/24 marketing year are now at 1.639 bb, up 28% over last year.

  • Weather forecast may remain as a limiting factor over the grain markets. Expectations are for warm temperatures and above normal precipitation over the corn belt into the July 4th holiday. Overall, those conditions will likely stay mostly favorable for crop development.

Above: The corn market appears to be holding support in the 440 – 435 area and could test overhead resistance between 471 and 475 ½ if additional bullish input enters the scene. If prices close below 435 they could then be at risk of trading toward the 427 – 424 support area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since trading toward the 200-day moving average and peaking near 1260, front month soybeans have been on the decline and appear on track to test the February low around 1128. Though domestic crush demand has been good, export demand has lagged, and like corn, the prospect of a higher 24/25 carryout looms, adding overhead resistance to prices. With much of the growing season in front of the market, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1320 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly higher with the November contract rebounding from the lowest prices since November of 2021. Weather has been mixed with the central Corn Belt receiving necessary rains over the weekend while the northwestern Belt had areas which flooded severely. The forecast throughout the month is hot with scattered rains.

  • Soybean meal closed higher today and has been performing relatively well likely due to the losses in Brazil due to flooding in which the soybeans that were lost were likely headed to Argentina to be crushed and exported as meal. Soybean oil closed lower and has been in a downward trend.

  • Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress Report and analysts are expecting a decline in good to excellent ratings. It is expected that soybeans will come in at 97% planted which would compare to 93% last week. They are expected to be rated at 68% good to excellent, which would be a 2-point drop from last week’s ratings.

  • With China making such a large soybean purchase last week, it may be an indicator that the US is becoming more competitive with Brazil, or that the recent weather events in Brazil have cut the size of their crop to an estimate closer than CONAB’s.

Above: The soybean market appears to have found support around 1140. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area. Otherwise, they remain at risk of testing the 1130 – 1125 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • With the exception of the July and September Kansas City contracts that gained fractions of a cent, the wheat complex closed lower across the board. Due to a shortened week, last Friday’s Commitments of Traders report has been delayed until this afternoon and is likely to show that managed funds added to their net short positions in wheat.

  • The USDA reported weekly wheat inspections at 12.6 mb, which bring total 24/25 inspections to 39 mb. This is up 38% from the previous year and inspections are ahead of the USDA’s projected pace. Wheat exports are estimated at 800 mb for 24/25 which is up 11% from the previous year.

  • Hot and dry conditions are expected this week across Ukraine and western Russia, with the extended outlook predicting more of the same. Southeastern Ukraine has received only 20-50% of normal rainfall between May 1 and June 10. Additionally, May was one of the driest months in 30 years in Ukraine, according to their state weather forecasters.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values are falling, putting pressure on the US export market. Prices ended last week at $231 per mt, down from $234 the previous week. SovEcon reported that Russian wheat exports last week totaled 830,000 mt, up from 800,000 mt the previous week.

  • Weather in Australia is expected to be mostly normal, but some areas will have more than average rainfall. This should give a boost to the wheat crop, which is bearish for global prices.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat continues to show signs of being oversold as it remains in a downtrend established in late May. Oversold conditions can be supportive if a bullish catalyst enters the scene to turn prices back higher. For now, Sept ’24 appears on track to test the 550 – 520 support area from last spring. Should that area hold and prices turn around, overhead resistance may come in around 595 – 605.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, the recent breakout above resistance from the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the highs from last summer.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance could be found near 620 with heavier resistance up towards 650 – 660. If the 476 area doesn’t hold, they may find further support between 570 – 550.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, the recent rally above resistance from last winter’s highs suggests there is potential for an extended rally toward summer 2023 highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat.) At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: September Minneapolis wheat is extremely oversold, which could be supportive if prices turn higher. In that case, resistance may be encountered near 650. Otherwise, prices might be on track to test support around 600.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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6-21 End of Day: Meal Supports Soybeans into the Close; Corn and Wheat Settle Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market drifted lower into the close with little fresh bullish news following disappointing export sales, a relatively non-threatening near-term weather forecast and weakness from a lower wheat market.

  • Soybeans rebounded from yesterday’s lowest close since 2021, supported by a $4.20 rally in soybean meal (July ’24). While soybean oil also rallied 0.33 cents from its low to close just 0.03 cents lower on the day. Bull spreading from strong crush demand, and a potentially dry extended outlook added further support.

  • The wheat complex posted its fourth consecutively lower weekly close for all three classes. Harvest pressure with reports of better than expected yields, and better than last year global wheat conditions continue to add to the weakness.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, and the updated US 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since mid-April, the front month corn market has been in a broad trading range bound mostly by 435 on the bottom and 475 up top. While solid demand has been a prominent supportive feature of the market along with US and South American weather, an old crop carryout near 2.0 billion bushels and the prospect of an even higher carryout number for new crop, has kept upside rallies in check. The 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2023 corn crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report and a relatively benign 8–14-day weather outlook, we are recommending selling the last of the old crop corn here. The risk of a lower trend into month’s end looks to be increasing. Then on the 28th of June, we have the uncertainty of the Grain Stocks and Acreage reports, which is one of the most volatile report days of the year. If that report day ends up being overall bearish, we’ve seen before where the market can shed 3% or more of its price. So given all these factors, and that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 corn crop at this time.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • With little fresh news to lift prices, the corn market gave up early morning gains and drifted lower on disappointing export sales, carryover weakness from wheat, and a near-term “rain makes grain” forecast that shows normal to above normal rain with above normal temperatures, despite areas of localized flooding in the upper Midwest and overnight temperatures in the 70s in the eastern Corn Belt.

  • Due to the Juneteenth holiday on Wednesday, the USDA released its weekly export sales report this morning. New corn sales for the week ending June 13 came in below the range of expectations at just 23.8 mb, 20.1 mb for the 23/24 marketing year, and 3.7 mb for new crop 24/25. Shipments totaled 49.2 mb.

  • Weekly ethanol production for the week ending June 14 was 1.057 million barrels per day versus average analyst expectations of 1.055 million, with stocks totaling 23.617 m. barrels. A total of 104.91 million bushels of corn were used for production, behind the weekly average of 110.94 million needed to reach the USDA’s goal of 5.45 billion bushels.

  • Expectations for Monday’s upcoming Crop Progress report are for slight declines in crop ratings. Given that the most recent corn rating of 72% good to excellent is historically high for this time of year, a significant drop in conditions may be needed to counter the recent bearish trend.

  • Next Friday, traders will receive both the Quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports. With expectations that June 1 corn stocks are higher than last year, rallies may be limited with the idea that farmers may be selling old crop inventory into them.

Above: The corn market appears to be holding support in the 440 – 435 area and could test overhead resistance between 471 and 475 ½ if additional bullish input enters the scene. If prices close below 435 they could then be at risk of trading toward the 427 – 424 support area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since trading toward the 200-day moving average and peaking near 1260, front month soybeans have been on the decline and appear on track to test the February low around 1128. Though domestic crush demand has been good, export demand has lagged, and like corn, the prospect of a higher 24/25 carryout looms, adding overhead resistance to prices. With much of the growing season in front of the market, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1320 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after yesterday’s sharp sell-off that brought prices to their lowest levels since the end of 2021. Weather was the primary factor in yesterday’s price movement, but today, there is some concern that the hot weather over the next month may not be tempered by enough rain. Soybean meal ended the day higher while soybean oil was lower.

  • Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 20.4 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 3.1 mb for 24/25. This was within trade expectations and better than last week’s sales. Last week’s export shipments of 12.5 mb were below the 13.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to Indonesia, the Netherlands, and Egypt.

  • Earlier this week, the NOPA crush report showed a crush number that was way above the average trade guesses, but the market did not react which points to trade that is focused on the weather. Crush demand should continue to be strong thanks to crush margins that have become more profitable in the past few weeks.

  • For the week, July soybeans lost 19 ¼ and November soybeans lost 29 ¾ to 1120. This bull spreading indicates a demand for cash soybeans and an anticipation of a large soybean crop in the future. July soybean meal lost $6.60 for the week to $361.80, and July soybean oil gained 0.26 cents at 43.94 cents.

Above: The sharp drop on June 16 brought the soybean market to test support near 1146. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area. Otherwise, they remain at risk of testing the 1130 – 1125 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • At the risk of sounding like a broken record, wheat was down again today. All three classes closed lower alongside Matif wheat, with Chicago and KC contracts posting double-digit losses. There has not been much change to the news – harvest pressure, a rallying US Dollar, and global wheat conditions looking better than last year are all contributing to weakness.

  • According to Interfax, the Russian ag minister has said that their grain exports will have adjusted duties with approval expected July 1. Right now, the proposal is for increased duties on barley, corn, and wheat by 1,000 rubles.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 21.7 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and a decrease of 0.4 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 13.4 mb fell under the 15.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 800 mb. Additionally, wheat sale commitments have reached 199 mb for 24/25 which is up 34% from last year.

  • Data from FranceAgriMer suggests that the French soft wheat crop conditions are steady at 62% good to excellent. While well below last year’s rating, this does not seem to be offering much support to the French market, with another lower close for Matif wheat today. These contracts have lost roughly 45 euros since the end of May, the equivalent of around $1.20 per bushel.

  • According to the USDA as of June 18, approximately 17% of the US winter wheat crop area is experiencing drought; this is a 1% increase from the previous week. Furthermore, only 3% of US spring wheat is said to be in drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat continues to show signs of being oversold as it remains in a downtrend established in late May. Oversold conditions can be supportive if a bullish catalyst enters the scene to turn prices back higher. For now, Sept ’24 appears on track to test the 550 – 520 support area from last spring. Should that area hold and prices turn around, overhead resistance may come in around 595 – 605.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, the recent breakout above resistance from the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the highs from last summer.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 663 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 60 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 730 – 760 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The break through 625 – 620 support suggests that prices may be on track toward the 570 – 550 support area from earlier this year. If a bullish impetus enters the scene to turn prices back higher, overhead resistance could be found near 650 – 660.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, the recent rally above resistance from last winter’s highs suggests there is potential for an extended rally toward summer 2023 highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Given the volatility in the wheat market, we recently recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to provide downside coverage for the 2025 crop due to their greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat. Moving forward, we will target a value of 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) in the July 620 puts to exit half of the original position, leaving the remainder to continue providing downside coverage with a net neutral cost if the market moves higher. Grain Market Insider may also start considering the first sales targets after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: With the recent lower trend, the market appears on track to test support in the 663 – 625 congestion area. Should that level hold with a rebound in prices, overhead resistance could be encountered near 685. If not, further support may be found near 600.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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6-20 End of Day: Markets Fall Sharply Thursday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market broke lower on Thursday following the midweek Juneteenth pause. Continuous corn futures broke through trendline support dating back to February as well as the 100-day moving average, spurring further technical selling pressure.

  • Soybeans were not immune to the commodity wide sell off on Thursday. November futures fell to their lowest level since August of 2021. Soybean meal and oil futures were lower on the day as well.

  • Wheat futures fell once again on Thursday across all three classes. July Chicago wheat has closed lower in 15 of the last 17 trading sessions as all three wheats remain in severely oversold territory.

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor, and the updated US July Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA and the Weather Prediction Center, and UNL scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since mid-April, the front month corn market has been in a broad trading range bound mostly by 435 on the bottom and 475 up top. While solid demand has been a prominent supportive feature of the market along with US and South American weather, an old crop carryout near 2.0 billion bushels and the prospect of an even higher carryout number for new crop, has kept upside rallies in check. The 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2023 corn crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report and a relatively benign 8–14-day weather outlook, we are recommending selling the last of the old crop corn here. The risk of a lower trend into month’s end looks to be increasing. Then on the 28th of June, we have the uncertainty of the Grain Stocks and Acreage reports, which is one of the most volatile report days of the year. If that report day ends up being overall bearish, we’ve seen before where the market can shed 3% or more of its price. So given all these factors, and that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 corn crop at this time.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market turned sellers following the Juneteenth holiday on prospects of a high yielding crop from a relatively strong start to the growing season. The market also likely saw additional technical selling after breaking support at the 100-day moving average on the daily continuous charts.  

  • One private group is currently estimating US corn yield for the 2024 crop at 181 bpa, in line with the USDA’s current forecast and ahead of last year’s 177 bpa. While not all states’ yields are estimated to be higher, states like Minnesota and Nebraska are projected to be well above last year’s.

  • For the months of July and August, US corn export FOB premiums are currently an 8 – 10 cent discount versus those from Brazil which could help improve US exports. Though not as large a player, Argentina’s corn export premiums remain the cheapest.

  • Localized flooding is likely in areas of Minnesota and parts of the Dakotas, with an additional 3-5 inches of rain expected over the next few days. Meanwhile, the eastern Corn Belt is forecasted to experience highs in the 90s with some areas in the 70s overnight and limited rainfall over the next couple of weeks. Additionally, the European weather model indicates much lower humidity compared to the American model, suggesting less moisture in the air and potentially less rainfall than predicted by the American model.

Above: The corn market appears to be holding support in the 440 – 435 area and could test overhead resistance between 471 and 475 ½ if additional bullish input enters the scene. If prices close below 435 they could then be at risk of trading toward the 427 – 424 support area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since trading toward the 200-day moving average and peaking near 1260, front month soybeans have been on the decline and appear on track to test the February low around 1128. Though domestic crush demand has been good, export demand has lagged, and like corn, the prospect of a higher 24/25 carryout looms, adding overhead resistance to prices. With much of the growing season in front of the market, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1320 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed sharply lower in a day of poor trade across the ag complex. November soybeans took out this past February’s low as well as the low made in May of last year to post the lowest close since August of 2021. Pressure came from rain expected in the nearby forecast despite the extended forecast showing some heat and dryness.  Both soybean meal and oil closed lower with meal leading the way down.

  • Chinese imports of soybeans from the US jumped in May and were up 156% from the same period a year ago. China purchased 1.27 mmt of soybeans from the US as Brazilian supplies shrink due to the flooding in the southern region of the country. Overall, China has been attempting to become more resource independent which could hurt demand in the future.

  • The weekly export sales report will be delayed until tomorrow due to the holiday week, but estimates are for soybean sales to be in between the range of 500k to 750k metric tons. It is likely that China will be a top buyer as they have made multiple purchases recently that have shown up in flash sales.

  • Earlier this week, the NOPA crush report showed a crush number that was way above the average trade guesses, but the market did not react which points to trade that is focused on the weather. Crush demand should continue to be strong thanks to crush margins that have become more profitable in the past few weeks.

Above: The sharp drop on June 16 brought the soybean market to test support near 1146. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area. Otherwise, they remain at risk of testing the 1130 – 1125 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted double-digit losses in all three US classes with little fresh news to offer bullish support. A higher US Dollar today, and another lower close for Matif wheat futures also did not help the situation, with those contracts at six-week lows.

  • Wheat remains technically oversold in all three categories. This could indicate that a bottom is near, but with harvest pressure on the winter crops and falling European values, it may be difficult for US wheat to rally in any significant manner in the near term.

  • Sov Econ has estimated Russia’s 2024 grain production at 127.4 mmt, down from 144.9 the year prior. This should be supportive to prices and may reflect the frost damage and drought conditions. However, some analysts are now estimating the Russian wheat crop at 82 mmt (up from 80) which is bearish.

  • Monsoon rains in India should bring relief to grain growing regions in the north over the next few days. However, India will still likely need to import wheat to rebuild their reserves. In related news, India is said to have increased their domestic wheat prices in an effort to stimulate more production (which would ultimately reduce their need for imports).

  • Ukraine’s 23/24 grain exports have reached 49.3 mmt as of June 19, which is up from 47.5 mmt a year ago. Of that total, 18.1 mmt is wheat, but the majority is corn at 28.2 mmt. In addition, Ukraine’s government has said the 2023 harvest totaled 81 mmt of grains and oilseeds, but the 2024 harvest could fall to 77 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. Support around 667 in the July ’25 Chicago wheat contract has been broken. Since peaking in May, the market has retraced over 50% back toward the March low, suggesting that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved and prices may trend lower. Taking this into consideration, Grain Market Insider is implementing a Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling another portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop at this time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat has been on a slide since late May and is on track to test the 600 – 593 support area from late April, while also showing signs of being oversold. Being oversold can be supportive to a higher move back towards the 650 resistance area if 600 – 593 support holds. If not, the next major support area may come in between 550 and 520.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, the recent breakout above resistance from the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the highs from last summer.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop. Support near 663 in the July ’25 KC wheat contract has been broken. Since peaking in May, the market has retraced over 50% toward the March low, suggesting that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved, and prices may trend lower. Taking this into consideration, Grain Market Insider is implementing a Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling another portion of your 2025 Hard Red Winter wheat crop at this time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The break through 625 – 620 support suggests that prices may be on track back toward the 570 – 550 support area from earlier this year, though the market may encounter psychological support around 600. If a bullish impetus enters the scene to turn prices back higher, overhead resistance could be found near 650 – 660.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, the recent rally above resistance from last winter’s highs suggests there is potential for an extended rally toward summer 2023 highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Given the volatility in the wheat market, we recently recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to provide downside coverage for the 2025 crop due to their greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat. Moving forward, we will target a value of 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) in the July 620 puts to exit half of the original position, leaving the remainder to continue providing downside coverage with a net neutral cost if the market moves higher. Grain Market Insider may also start considering the first sales targets after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: With the recent lower trend, the market appears on track to test support in the 663 – 625 congestion area. Should that level hold with a rebound in prices, overhead resistance could be encountered near 685. If not, further support may be found near 600.

Other Charts / Weather

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6-18 End of Day: Markets Close Sharply Mixed as Corn and Beans Turn Around on Tuesday

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Wednesday, June 19, in Observance of Juneteenth

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A 2% drop in corn’s good to excellent crop ratings, and a higher soybean market provided support to the corn market, which was constrained by the July 200-day moving average below and the July 50-day moving average above. Overall, July corn closed just 2 cents off its high within an 8 ¼ cent trading range.

  • The soybean market staged a turnaround Tuesday bolstered by strong soybean meal and oil prices. Old crop soybeans likely received extra support from the large NOPA crush numbers reported yesterday, while new crop soybeans benefited from a 2% decline in good to excellent ratings in the crop progress report released yesterday afternoon.

  • The wheat complex saw red across the board again today in all three classes. A fast harvest pace with better than expected yields, improved crop ratings, and lower Matif wheat, all contributed to the negativity.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the updated US 6-10 and 8-14-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since mid-April, the front month corn market has been in a broad trading range bound mostly by 435 on the bottom and 475 up top. While solid demand has been a prominent supportive feature of the market along with US and South American weather, an old crop carryout near 2.0 billion bushels and the prospect of an even higher carryout number for new crop, has kept upside rallies in check. The 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed a Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although weather remains a dominant factor, the technical picture could look better, and we try not to carry old crop inventory past mid-July. Therefore, our current Plan A strategy for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, is to target the 480 – 520 range versus Sept ’24, and if the market fails to present the opportunity for that upside sale and turns lower, our Plan B strategy will be targeting a close below 448 versus Sept’ 24.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Support near the 200-day moving average in July corn held in overnight trade as crop conditions came in 2% lower than last week at 72% in the good to excellent categories. While the drop came within expectations, the current ratings are the highest in 4 years. The USDA also reported that 93% of the crop has emerged versus 95% last year and the 5-year average of 92%.

  • According to China’s General Administration of Customs, Chinese imports of corn in the month of May were 1.05 mmt, nearly 37% lower than the same time last year. Though the month of May saw a dramatic decline, overall year to date corn imports came in at 10.13 mmt, a 0.5% year over year drop.

  • AgRural reported that Brazil’s second (safrinha) corn crop is 21% harvested, an 11% increase from last week and compares to the 5% harvested at this time last year. This marks the fastest pace since the agency began reporting its weekly data in 2013.

  • Now that the growing season is underway, weather has become a primary focus for the market. The current forecast shows rain for Ohio, Illinois, and Indiana next week, though coverage is expected to be limited. In the northwestern Corn Belt, heavier rains could result in localized flooding.

Above: The corn market appears to be holding support in the 440 – 435 area and could test overhead resistance between 471 and 475 ½ if additional bullish input enters the scene. If prices close below 435 they could then be at risk of trading toward the 427 – 424 support area.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since trading toward the 200-day moving average and peaking near 1260, front month soybeans have been on the decline and appear on track to test the February low around 1128. Though domestic crush demand has been good, export demand has lagged, and like corn, the prospect of a higher 24/25 carryout looms, adding overhead resistance to prices. With much of the growing season in front of the market, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1320 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher for a turnaround Tuesday with the two front months posting significant gains while the deferred contracts only closed slightly higher. Support likely came from yesterday’s Crop Progress report in which soybean crop ratings were lowered, but yesterday’s large NOPA crush number was supportive as well. Both soybean meal and oil closed higher as well with bean oil leading the way up.

  • Yesterday, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed the good to excellent rating for soybeans falling by 2 points to 70%. This was within the range of trade estimates and is still significantly higher than last year’s rating of 54%. 93% of the soy crop is planted, which compares to the 5-year average of 91%. 82% of the crop has emerged which compares to the 5-year average of 79%.

  • The bull spreading in soybeans today was likely a result of yesterday’s higher than expected NOPA crush numbers which indicate nearby demand for cash soybeans. The USDA has estimated the processing value of soybeans at $14.42 a bushel in Illinois as of June 14 which is well above the average US cash price.

  • Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report showed soybean inspections at 12.3 mb for the week ending June 13. This puts total inspections at 1.502 billion bushels which is down 17% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating soybean exports at 1.700 billion bushels for 23/24 which would be down 15% from the previous year. Poor export demand has pressured markets recently.

Above: The sharp drop on June 16 brought the soybean market to test support near 1146. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area. Otherwise, they remain at risk of testing the 1130 – 1125 area.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had another down day across the board, alongside Matif futures that also closed lower. This is the third consecutive lower close for July Chicago wheat, and the fifth for July Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat. With improvements to crop ratings yesterday, a fast harvest pace for winter wheat, and better than expected yields on the HRW crop so far, it will be difficult for wheat to rally without some fresh bullish news.

  • The Crop Progress report yesterday afternoon indicated that winter wheat condition improved by 2% to 49% good to excellent, and 27% of the crop is harvested. This is about double both the 13% pace from a year ago and the 14% five-year average. Spring wheat conditions also improved by 4% to 76% good to excellent, with 95% of the crop emerged versus 96% last year and the 5-year 93% average.

  • Adding bearish pressure are reports from IKAR that Russian wheat FOB export values are down about $18 from the season high, to $234 per mt. This is despite the recent declining estimates of Russian wheat production and does not bode well for US exports or futures prices.

  • Heavy rains are expected to hit southern Brazil again over the next week, raising concerns about flooding after the recent deluge in May. This weather could also delay wheat plantings in the region.

  • According to customs data, China’s wheat imports in May totaled 1.86 mmt, a 61% increase year on year. Year-to-date wheat imports have reached 8.09 mmt, up 12.6% from last year. Additionally, drought in China’s northern growing region may curb yields, potentially leading to more foreign grain imports.

  • Argus has reportedly reduced their estimate of Romanian wheat production from 10.6 mmt to 10.45 mmt after a crop tour. This reduction is due to a lower estimated planted area, while yields remain unchanged. However, with warmer temperatures expected in the near term, yields may be affected, potentially leading to further production cuts.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. Support around 667 in the July ’25 Chicago wheat contract has been broken. Since peaking in May, the market has retraced over 50% back toward the March low, suggesting that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved and prices may trend lower. Taking this into consideration, Grain Market Insider is implementing a Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling another portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop at this time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat has been on a slide since late May and is on track to test the 600 – 593 support area from late April, while also showing signs of being oversold. Being oversold can be supportive to a higher move back towards the 650 resistance area if 600 – 593 support holds. If not, the next major support area may come in between 550 and 520.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, the recent breakout above resistance from the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the highs from last summer.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop. Support near 663 in the July ’25 KC wheat contract has been broken. Since peaking in May, the market has retraced over 50% toward the March low, suggesting that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved, and prices may trend lower. Taking this into consideration, Grain Market Insider is implementing a Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling another portion of your 2025 Hard Red Winter wheat crop at this time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The break through 625 – 620 support suggests that prices may be on track back toward the 570 – 550 support area from earlier this year, though the market may encounter psychological support around 600. If a bullish impetus enters the scene to turn prices back higher, overhead resistance could be found near 650 – 660.

Above: 2024/25 Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, the recent rally above resistance from last winter’s highs suggests there is potential for an extended rally toward summer 2023 highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Given the volatility in the wheat market, we recently recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to provide downside coverage for the 2025 crop due to their greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat. Moving forward, we will target a value of 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) in the July 620 puts to exit half of the original position, leaving the remainder to continue providing downside coverage with a net neutral cost if the market moves higher. Grain Market Insider may also start considering the first sales targets after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: With the recent lower trend, the market appears on track to test support in the 663 – 625 congestion area. Should that level hold with a rebound in prices, overhead resistance could be encountered near 685. If not, further support may be found near 600.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.