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7-17 End of Day: Wheat Leads Corn Higher; Soybeans Close Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover strength from the wheat market, and solid ethanol production numbers, lent support to the corn market as prices continue to consolidate around the 410 area in the December contract.

  • Soybean futures closed mixed, with spot month August maintaining strength from canceled deliverable receipts and a strong cash market. Deferred contracts fell on prospects of healthy supplies ahead, while sharply lower soybean oil limited the rally potential. Meanwhile, meal rallied off its lows to close moderately higher.

  • A sharp drop in the US dollar triggered buying in all three wheat classes, as they closed higher across the board in an attempt to correct from oversold conditions. Minneapolis contracts showed the most strength, followed by KC.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6-10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the Vegetation Drought Response Index, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Considering we are at the time of year to get early sales made for next year’s crop, we recently issued our first sales recommendation for the 2025 corn crop. Given that the growing season has potential for high volatility and can provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year, we will also be watching the calendar along with price action. If our current Plan A upside objective in the 490 – 510 range isn’t met by our Plan B sales deadline of July 23, we will likely make another sales recommendation at that time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Spillover strength in the wheat market helped support December corn futures prices around the 410 area. The market has been consolidating in this area for the past 7 sessions as the market has moved into a sideways pattern, with corn prices looking for a signal for the next price move.

  • With improved margins, weekly ethanol production trended higher last week. Average production last week was 1.106 million barrels/day. This was up 4.9% from last week and up 3.4% from last year and set a new daily high for ethanol production for this week of the calendar year. The amount of corn used for the week is estimated at 109.78 million bushels, which is slightly below the pace to reach the new USDA ethanol usage targets for the marketing year.

  • The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday morning. Expectations are for new sales to range from 500,000 – 800,000 mt for the old crop and up to 400,000 mt for the new crop.  With just over a month left in the marketing year, the market will be starting to focus more on new crop sales, which have been lackluster.

  • Weather concerns other than extremes are likely past the point of impacting the corn crop nationally. Going into the end of the month, the forecast remains very favorable for corn production.

Above: The negative market action on July 15 puts the bullish reversal from report day July 12 in question. If support in the area of 391 holds and prices reverse back higher, they could run toward 425 – 430, though they may encounter initial resistance around 410 – 415. On the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the upper 1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The soybean market closed the session in mixed fashion with the August and September contracts settling higher on the day, with the deferred contracts lower. August beans gained support as CBOT deliverable receipts showed net cancellations for all three legs of the complex, indicating firm demand in the cash market.  

  • Just before the morning break, August beans rallied to close the gap left behind from Sunday evening’s lower opening from Friday’s close. Once filled, August soybeans retreated in choppy trade as new crop contracts led the way lower, with weakness coming from sharply lower soybean oil. Soybean meal, on the other hand, rebounded and settled in the green near the day’s highs.

  • It’s been reported that China bought upwards of 4.5 million metric tons of Brazilian soybeans, primarily for August delivery, since the beginning of July, taking advantage of the recent drop in prices and the recent drop in the Brazilian real, which makes Brazil’s soybeans more competitive on the export market compared to US offers.

  • The recent buying activity by China from Brazil highlights the thin book of sales that the US currently has for the new crop. More recently, there have been rumors that China may have bought 6 or 7 cargoes of US beans off the PNW for late summer delivery since the Brazilian real has rebounded and stabilized, allowing US offers to be more competitive.

Above: The large gap on the continuous chart represents the roll from the August soybean contract to the September, where the 50 cent premium in the August contract relative to the September contract is no longer represented. That said, support for the September contract may come in near the 1000 psychological level with further support around 985. Overhead, a turnaround toward higher prices may encounter resistance between 1065 – 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Though closing below session highs, wheat was the upside leader today in the grain complex. The US Dollar Index offered support as it dropped sharply today, hitting the lowest level since late March. This may be tied to the belief that the Federal Reserve will issue a rate cut in September. Additionally, US wheat futures are very oversold and could be due for more of an upside correction.

  • The chart gap above the market has yet to be filled for Paris milling wheat futures, despite a higher close for those contracts today. Along with being technically oversold, this may lend credence to the idea that wheat has some potential to rally, as gaps tend to be filled over time. 

  • Russia supplied the majority of the wheat in Egypt’s largest tender in two years. Of the 770,000 mt total, Russia fulfilled 720,000, while Bulgaria got the rest of the business for 50,000 mt. Russia continues to dominate the export market despite some of the issues their crop faced. Currently, their spring wheat crop may be impacted by heat and dryness.

  • According to their agriculture ministry, the export duty on Russian wheat increased 4.7% from 1,701.3 to 1,780.5 Rubles per mt as of July 17. These duties are said to be valid until July 23, and only apply to wheat; duties on barley and corn will remain at zero.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of your July ‘25 620 Chicago Wheat puts at approximately 67 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Last month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts for approximately 34 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July Chicago wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 Chicago wheat has dropped over 100 cents, with the July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, and plenty of unknowns remain that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at a net neutral cost, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break through 556 support suggests that the market could trend lower. Below the market, prices may find initial support around 520, with further support down between 490 and 470, with psychological support coming in near 500. If initial support around holds, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After breaking through the bottom end of its consolidation range, KC wheat may find support in the 560 – 550 area of last spring’s lows. If this area holds, prices could turn higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. Otherwise, a break below 550 could find further support in the 530 area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since rallying in late June, the market has retraced back toward its lows, and has broken the 644 support level. The breaking of 644 support suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved, and prices could trend lower. Considering this and that it is the time of year to begin getting early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider is implementing its Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling a portion of your 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The break below 596 support suggests that prices could retreat further towards the 550 – 540 support area. While a rally back above 600 could encounter resistance near 610 with heavier resistance near 636.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-16 End of Day: Corn and Beans Succeed in a Turnaround Tuesday as Wheat Stumbles

ByLisa Heder

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Following Monday’s sharp losses, the corn market likely saw some short covering and positive money flow enter the market in response to strong storms that moved through the Midwest on Monday evening.

  • Following choppy two sided trade, the soybean market settled higher on the day, as traders covered short positions from the recent sharp decline. Old crop August held much of its gains, with support from a strong cash market. Meanwhile, new crop contracts closed well off their respective highs.

  • Led by KC wheat, all three wheat classes settled in the red for the third consecutive day. Solid spring wheat conditions, the continuing winter wheat harvest, and low export prices out of Russia, continue to keep a lid on US wheat prices and limit any rally potential.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Considering we are at the time of year to get early sales made for next year’s crop, we recently issued our first sales recommendation for the 2025 corn crop. Given that the growing season has potential for high volatility and can provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year, we will also be watching the calendar along with price action. If our current Plan A upside objective in the 490 – 510 range isn’t met by our Plan B sales deadline of July 23, we will likely make another sales recommendation at that time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market used unchanged crop ratings and a Derecho event across the corn belt to trigger some short covering and positive money flow into the corn market on Tuesday.

  • The USDA released its latest round of crop ratings on Monday afternoon. The current corn crop was rated 68% good to excellent, unchanged from last week, and down 1% from expectations. The crop is still 11% better than last year at this time. As the strong ratings continue, there are whispers that the current yield projections are too low, with talk the national corn yield could be 183-184 bushels/acre this fall.

  • A strong line of thunderstorms moved from Eastern Iowa to Central Indiana on Monday night. The storm path was deemed a Derecho event with strong winds up to 80-90 mph. The market sitting on a large short position likely covered some short in the prospects of potential damage to the corn crop that could have occurred. Any news from the storm will be a wait and see approach.

  • Despite the possible wind damage, areas around that region also received additional rainfall, which helps during the key pollination window. Weather concerns other than extremes are likely past the point of impacting the corn crop nationally.

Above: The negative market action on July 15 puts the bullish reversal from report day July 12 in question. If support in the area of 391 holds and prices reverse back higher, they could run toward 425 – 430, though they may encounter initial resistance around 410 – 415. On the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the upper 1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans staged a bit of a recovery following yesterday’s steep decline, with the November contract rallying to as much as 12 cents higher, while old crop August reached 18 ½ cents higher. While the new crop contracts closed the day with small gains, August maintained its strength as the cash market continues to reach for supplies to keep pipelines full. 

  • The soybean crop’s good to excellent rating remained steady at 68% from last week in this week’s Crop Progress report, which remains the highest rating since 2020, and compares to last year’s 55% G/E rating. 51% of the crop is blooming versus the 5-year average of 44%, while 18% is setting pods.

  • ABIOVE, a trade group representing Brazilian crushers, raised their production estimate for Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop by 0.7 mmt to 153.2 mmt, in line with the USDA’s current estimate of 153 mmt. Both estimates remain well above the Conab projection of 147.34 mmt.

  • Strong storms moved through the Midwest Monday night with diminishing strength as they moved south and east. While some structural damage was reported, the extent of any crop damage remains unknown. Temperatures are expected to fall back to normal to below normal through the end of the month, with rain over the next week favoring the southern half of the Midwest.

Above: TThe recent break through 1125 support suggests that the market could retreat further towards the next major support area between 1050 and 1040. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1100 with further resistance up towards 1130.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After making an attempt to rally, wheat closed modestly lower in all three classes. This is despite a turnaround in Paris milling wheat futures that managed a slightly positive close for both September and December contracts, though still leaving yesterday’s chart gap yet to be filled. Selling pressure for US wheat was likely the result of another increase to the US Dollar, harvest pressure, good spring wheat conditions, and an export market dominated by Russia.

  • According to yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report, winter wheat is 71% harvested, well above last year’s 53% pace and the 62% average. Additionally, spring wheat conditions improved 2% from last week to 77% good to excellent. This is well above 51% at this time last year and is also the highest rating since 2019. Furthermore, spring wheat is 76% headed versus 59% a week ago, 82% last year, and 78% on average.

  • Russian wheat export values continue to be the world’s cheapest. This continues to limit upside movement for US futures prices. Egypt is tendering for wheat, and Russia was said to be the lowest offer at $226 per mt FOB. The results of that tender are expected at some point today. 

  • In southern Brazil, the planting and development of the winter wheat crop are behind schedule due to recent heavy rains, though drier conditions are expected for the rest of the week. Additionally, frosts and dry conditions are also a concern for the wheat crop in Argentina.

  • Asian wheat importers are said to have increased their buying over the past few weeks as global wheat prices have declined. Those purchases are set to be sourced from eastern Europe, however, and the US is expected to miss out on the business. As much as 1 mmt of wheat purchases have been locked in from Russia, Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria for August-September shipment.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of your July ‘25 620 Chicago Wheat puts at approximately 67 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Last month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts for approximately 34 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July Chicago wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 Chicago wheat has dropped over 100 cents, with the July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, and plenty of unknowns remain that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at a net neutral cost, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break through 556 support suggests that the market could trend lower. Below the market, prices may find initial support around 520, with further support down between 490 and 470, with psychological support coming in near 500. If initial support around holds, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After breaking through the bottom end of its consolidation range, KC wheat may find support in the 560 – 550 area of last spring’s lows. If this area holds, prices could turn higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. Otherwise, a break below 550 could find further support in the 530 area.

Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since rallying in late June, the market has retraced back toward its lows, and has broken the 644 support level. The breaking of 644 support suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved, and prices could trend lower. Considering this and that it is the time of year to begin getting early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider is implementing its Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling a portion of your 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The break below 596 support suggests that prices could retreat further towards the 550 – 540 support area. While a rally back above 600 could encounter resistance near 610 with heavier resistance near 636.

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-15 End of Day: Beans Lead Corn Lower; Wheat Follows Through on Bearish USDA WASDE

ByLisa Heder

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • While December corn remains above key 400 support, weakness in neighboring soybeans and wheat helped press corn to double digit losses today, despite Friday’s USDA report that was friendly to prices.

  • Following Sunday night’s gap lower opening, the soybean market never recovered and closed sharply lower, with weakness coming from a growing supply picture and weak exports and NOPA crush data.

  • Follow through from bearish supply data in Friday’s USDA report coupled with falling Russian export values and sharply lower Matif wheat futures, weighed heavily on the wheat complex in today’s trade that ended with all three classes closing sharply lower.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  With it being the time of year to start getting early sales on the books for next year, and considering that the higher-than-expected June 1 stocks suggest an increasing supply outlook for the 2024 crop, which could create overhead resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, allowing the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn closed with double digit losses across the board, alongside sharply lower soybeans and wheat. It appears that funds are continuing to add to short positions; as of Friday’s Commitment of Traders report they held a net short of 354,000 corn contracts, the largest since 2019. Looking at the silver lining though, so far December corn has not broken through support at 400.

  • The corn market continues to see a tale of two crops. Parts of the eastern corn belt look very good and have rain in the forecast over the next seven days. But in the northwestern corn belt where there has been so much flood damage, shallow roots may be an issue as that region is expected to start becoming warmer and drier.

  • Weekly corn inspections at 42.5 mb were in line with expectations and bring total 23/24 inspections to 1.756 bb. That is up 31% year on year and inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s projected pace; total corn exports are projected at 2.150 bb.

  • According to AgRural, Brazil’s safrinha corn crop harvest is 74% complete in the central and southern regions, and according to CONAB, this crop is about 61% harvested in total, with the first corn crop at 95% complete. This harvest pressure is also said to be affecting corn prices in Brazil, causing them to drop. Furthermore, CONAB raised their estimate of the safrinha crop production to 90 mmt from 88.11 mmt in June.

Above: The negative market action on July 15 puts the bullish reversal from report day July 12 in question. If support in the area of 391 holds and prices reverse back higher, they could run toward 425 – 430, though they may encounter initial resistance around 410 – 415. On the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 17,445 contracts between July 3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 353,983 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the upper 1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the 1240 – 1280 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The soybean market gapped lower across the board at the onset of trading Sunday night and never looked back. Soft weekly export and NOPA crush data added to the negativity in the soybean complex, and while Friday’s WASDE report was neutral to friendly relative to expectations, it still showcased a growing supply picture, which continues to weigh on the market.

  • Soybean meal and oil also traded lower in sympathy with soybeans as Board Crush margins gained 13 ½ cents in the August contracts and 5 cents in the December from today’s weakness.

  • Today’s NOPA crush report showed June crush below expectations at 175.6 mb. Though within the range of expectations, the trade was looking for a number closer to 178 mb. Soybean oil stocks also came in at 1.622 billion pounds, below expectations of 1.669 bil. lbs. Initial reactions rallied nearby, old crop oil contracts, though new crop contracts remain weak.

  • Weekly soybean export inspections were below expectations with only 6 mb inspected for export, a marketing year low. They were also behind the pace needed to reach the USDA’s forecast. Year to date inspections remain 16% below last year while the USDA projects a 15% decline.

  • Friday the Commitment of Traders report was issued, showing that as of Tuesday, July 9 managed funds increased their net short soybean position by 31,679 contracts. This brought their total net short soybean position to 172,605 contracts. Since that time have likely added to that position, with it currently being an estimated net short totaling 183,000 contracts.

  • Friday’s WASDE report was favorable for corn but neutral for soybeans. Old crop ending stocks came in at 345 million bushels, 5 mb below last month and towards the lower end of expectations. US production for 24/25 was slightly lowered from last month’s estimate to 4.435 bb, and slightly below trade expectations. Yields remained unchanged at 52.0 bpa, while new crop ending stocks were pegged at 435 mb, relatively in line with expectations.

  • The soybean market may be experiencing some geopolitical pressure as well, as many believe the assassination attempt on former President Trump could have greatly increased the odds of his re-election, potentially bringing with it more strained trade relations with the world’s largest soybean importer, China.

Above: The recent break through 1125 support suggests that the market could retreat further towards the next major support area between 1050 and 1040. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1100 with further resistance up towards 1130.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 31,679 contracts between July 3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 172,605 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed sharply lower in all three US categories. Weakness stemmed from mostly bearish data on Friday’s WASDE report. Though exports and demand were raised, this was offset by higher carryout numbers, as well as higher production estimates for both spring and winter wheat. To add to the negativity, Matif wheat futures gapped lower today, and also closed near session lows.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 19.6 mb were above expectations and bring total 24/25 inspections to 83 mb. This is up 26% from last year and inspections are running far ahead of the USDA’s projected pace; total 24/25 exports are estimated at 825 mb, a 25 mb increase on last Friday’s report.

  • IKAR has reportedly increased their estimate of the Russian wheat crop by 1.2 mmt to 83.2 mmt, aligning with the USDA’s estimate. This, combined with falling export values, is bearish for the market. Russian wheat exports have reportedly decreased to $218 per mt FOB. Additionally, SovEcon reported that Russia exported 600,000 mt of grain last week, with 510,000 mt of that being wheat.

  • Flour millers in Pakistan have reportedly gone on strike to protest new taxes. Consequently, the Pakistani government has halted all exports of flour made from imported wheat and stopped all wheat imports, according to their commerce ministry. Pakistan’s wheat harvest is expected to be 5.4% higher than last year but still 2.3 mmt below the targeted 32 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of your July ‘25 620 Chicago Wheat puts at approximately 67 cents in premium minus fees and commission.  Last month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts for approximately 34 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July Chicago wheat had just broken through support near 706.  The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 Chicago wheat has dropped over 100 cents, with the July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, and plenty of unknowns remain that could rally prices.  Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at a net neutral cost, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break through 556 support suggests that the market could trend lower. Below the market, prices may find initial support around 520, with further support down between 490 and 470, with psychological support coming in near 500. If initial support around holds, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,837 contracts between July 3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 69,137 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After breaking through the bottom end of its consolidation range, KC wheat may find support in the 560 – 550 area of last spring’s lows. If this area holds, prices could turn higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. Otherwise, a break below 550 could find further support in the 530 area.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,292 contracts between July 3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 40,811 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since rallying in late June, the market has retraced back toward its lows, and has broken the 644 support level. The breaking of 644 support suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved, and prices could trend lower. Considering this and that it is the time of year to begin getting early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider is implementing its Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling a portion of your 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The break below 596 support suggests that prices could retreat further towards the 550 – 540 support area. While a rally back above 600 could encounter resistance near 610 with heavier resistance near 636.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,268 contracts between July 3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 23,723 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-12 End of Day: USDA Report Bullish Corn, Neutral Beans, Bearish Wheat

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • In anticipation of a bearish report the corn market started the day in the red, but rallied sharply upon the release of much lower than expected ending stocks data for both old crop and new. Unfortunately, weakness in neighboring wheat and soybeans limited corns rally potential as it consolidated into the close with only moderate gains.

  • Although the soybean market got an initial shot in the arm from the USDA report, the slight downward revisions to soybean ending stocks were more neutral than bullish and were not enough to overcome the bearish fundamentals of good growing conditions and slow export demand. Weakness in both soybean meal and oil also dragged on the soybean market with lower closes in both products.

  • A surprise increase in US wheat production and ending stocks help drive all three wheat classes lower on the day, with losses that largely outweigh yesterday’s gains. Rumors of a potentially revived Black Sea Grain Initiative and lower Matif wheat likely added to the negativity.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  With it being the time of year to start getting early sales on the books for next year, and considering that the higher-than-expected June 1 stocks suggest an increasing supply outlook for the 2024 crop, which could create overhead resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, allowing the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market started the day weak, failing to build on yesterday’s rally due to anticipation of a bearish USDA report. However, it surged after the USDA announced surprise decreases in both old crop and new crop ending stocks. Despite this, weak trade in the wheat complex and neighboring soybeans limited corn gains.

  • The USDA surprised the market by dropping old crop ending stocks for the 23/24 crop year to 1.877 billion bushels from June’s estimate of 2.022 bb, where a slight increase was anticipated, by raising export demand much more than expected, along with increased feed and residual use. 

  • 24/25 ending stocks came in at 2.097 bb from June’s 2.102 bb where an increase to 2.312 was expected. The decrease was largely due to the lower 23/24 ending stocks which become the 24/25 marketing year’s beginning stocks number. Production for 24/25 was as expected with no change to yield with the additional acres from the June 28 Acreage report.  

  • For South America, the USDA made only a minor adjustment to Argentina’s corn production estimate by dropping it to 1 mmt from last month’s estimate to 52 mmt. For Brazil, the USDA kept its projection unchanged at 122 mmt from last month, and above Conab’s latest 115.86 mmt estimate.

  • In yesterday’s trade, it was estimated that funds bought about 2,000 contracts in the corn market, which brought their total estimated net short position to 364,000 contracts, a record if verified. Later today, the CFTC will release its Commitment of Traders report showing the fund’s net position in the markets as of Tuesday, June 9. Given the size of the fund’s net short position and today’s bullish report, it is possible that we could see a corrective bounce and some short covering in the market.

  • Basis continues to be firm in the spot market as exporters and processors reach for supplies with slow farmer selling. This may change as farmers begin to move current supplies into the market as they make room for the upcoming harvest.

Above: The bullish surprise in the July WASDE report led the corn market to post a bullish reversal from the 393 – 391 support area. This reversal suggests that prices could run toward 425 – 430, though they may encounter initial resistance around 410 – 415. On the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the upper 1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the 1240 – 1280 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after today’s mostly neutral WASDE report. Prices made new lows for the year as trade expects a large soybean crop with continued good weather in the forecast at this point. Poor export sales have also been a negative factor in soybeans and the entire grain complex. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.

  • For the week, August soybeans lost 61 ¼ cents to 1105 and November soybeans lost 64 ½ cents to 1065 ¼. August soybean meal lost $18.40 to $338.80, and August soybean oil lost 2.90 cents to 46.65 cents. With weather and crop conditions seemingly good so far and export sales slow, funds have not had encouragement to begin buying back their large net short position.

  • Today’s WASDE report was friendly to corn but very neutral for soybeans. US production for 24/25 was lowered very slightly from last month’s estimate to 4.435 billion bushels and was a hair short of the trade guess. Yields were unchanged at 52.0 bpa and new crop ending stocks pegged at 435 mb were just below trade expectations.

  • The USDA did not adjust Brazilian soybean production in today’s report and left it at 153 mmt which is well above CONAB’s estimate from earlier this week at 147.34 mmt. It is unusual to have such a large discrepancy in production when the crop is virtually completely harvested, so those numbers will need to converge eventually. The USDA did lower its estimate of Argentina’s soybean crop slightly to 49.5 mmt, from last month’s 50 mmt.

Above: The recent break through 1125 support suggests that the market could retreat further towards the next major support area between 1050 and 1040, though psychological support may be uncovered around 1100. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1130 with further resistance up towards 1160 – 1165.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed sharply lower in all three categories as a result of relatively bearish data in today’s WASDE report. Additionally, Matif wheat futures also closed lower, offering no support, despite a French wheat crop that is in much poorer shape compared to a year ago.

  • On today’s report, the US wheat numbers were unfriendly to the market; the USDA increased their estimate of all wheat production from 1.875 bb in June to 2.008 bb currently. That is the highest in eight years and paints a bearish picture for the wheat market. As far as the breakdown goes, winter wheat production came in at 1.34 bb, up 7% from last year, while spring wheat production was estimated at 578 mb, up 14% from a year ago. Global wheat production also went up to 796.19 mmt versus 790.75 last month.

  • Both the US and world carryout numbers also added pressure to the wheat market. US old crop carryout increased from 688 mb to 702 mb, while the 24/25 ending stocks went from 758 mb to 856 mb. Globally, 23/24 wheat carryout increased from 259.6 mmt to 261.0 mmt, and the 24/25 season went from 252.3 mmt on the June report to 257.2 mmt today.

  • Aside from today’s data, there were also rumors overnight that Russia’s President Putin will not rule out a revival of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. This talk may have added to the weakness in wheat because, in theory, this would allow Ukraine to export more grain.

  • According to the Rosario Board of Trade, Argentina’s wheat production forecast has been cut to 20.5 mmt, a 2.4% decline from the previous projection of 21 mmt. Argentine farmers are currently planting the 24/25 crop, but dry conditions in June have affected the planting process, leading to the reduced forecast. Additionally, the estimated planted area has decreased from 6.9 million hectares last month to 6.7 million hectares.

  • The wheat crop in western Australia is expected to see a 20% year over year increase to 9.2 mmt. July rains have brought relief to drier crop areas, and yields are anticipated to improve. However, weather and growing conditions will likely need to remain favorable through the rest of the season in order to achieve this production estimate.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since late June Chicago wheat has been largely rangebound between 591 up top and 556 down below. Should support hold and prices breakout and close above 600 psychological resistance, they could move toward the 630 – 645 area, while a close below 556 could find further support between 550 and 520.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After breaking through the bottom end of its consolidation range, KC wheat may have found support in the 560 – 550 area of last spring’s lows. If this area holds, prices could turn higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. Otherwise, a break below 550 could find further support in the 530 area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 700 – 710 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 644. As long as the Sept ’25 contract remains above 644 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 690 – 710. If the Sept ’25 contract were to close below 644, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 690 – 710 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Therefore, a break of support would trigger a sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: It appears that the rally off the 600 support area encountered resistance just below 640. Should prices continue lower, support remains between 600 and 596, with heavier support towards 542. While a close above 640 could suggest a rally back towards the 662 – 683 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-11 End of Day: Grain Markets Rebound on Short Covering Ahead of Friday’s USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market closed on a firm note ahead of tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report. Although the report is expected to show increased supplies for both old and new crops, the market likely found support from traders covering short positions in preparation of its release and from strength in neighboring wheat.

  • Soybean prices traded both sides of unchanged during the session as traders squared their positions ahead of tomorrow’s report. Support from sharply higher soybean oil and moderately higher meal helped soybeans settle mostly higher, well above the day’s lows.

  • The wheat complex settled higher on the day across all three classes led by the KC contracts. The complex likely saw a measure of short covering that was triggered by reports of Ukraine seizing a ship carrying looted grain, and further fueled by a sharply lower US Dollar on cooler than expected inflation data.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, an US Drought Monitor courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  With it being the time of year to start getting early sales on the books for next year, and considering that the higher-than-expected June 1 stocks suggest an increasing supply outlook for the 2024 crop, which could create overhead resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, allowing the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market was firmer on the session, supported by strength in the wheat market and short covering ahead of Friday’s USDA WASDE/Crop production report. The December contract is trading down 13 ¼ cents on the week going into the Friday session. The July futures contract expires on Friday.

  • Expectations for the USDA Crop Production report on Friday is looking for increased corn carry out for the current and next marketing year as the USDA will be adding in the numbers from the Acreage and Grain Stocks reports on June 28. Expectations are for corn carryout for the 24/25 marketing year to reach 2.272 billion bushels, up 170 mb from last month. Typically, the USDA will not adjust yield or acreage in the July report.

  • The weekly export sales report was within expectations for corn. Last week, US exporters posted new sales of 21.2 mb (538,000 mt) of old crop and 4.6 mb (117,000 mt) of new crop corn. Total new crop sales remain disappointing and have limited market strength.

  • The Brazil Ag Agency, CONAB, released their July crop projections for corn and soybeans this morning. CONAB increased Brazil’s corn crop forecast to 115.86 mmt, up 1.7 mmt from their June projections, as yields were better than expected in some areas for the second crop harvest. Total corn production is still 12% smaller than last year, which totaled 131.89 mmt.

Above: Since mid-June the corn market has been stuck in a downtrend, and the market’s pierce of 393 support suggests that it may slide further, possibly towards the next support area between 362 and 360, if 393 doesn’t hold. If this area of support holds and prices rally back, they could encounter overhead resistance around 410 – 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the upper 1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the 1240 – 1280 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly mixed, with front month August higher, the September contract unchanged, and the deferred contracts higher, after prices fell from their highs earlier this morning following a disappointing export sales report. Funds were likely exiting some short positions ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report as well. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher.

  • Today’s export sales report showed an increase in soybean export sales of 7.6 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 7.0 mb for 24/25. This was down 9% from the previous week and 40% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments of 9.8 mb were below the 14.3 mb needed each week, and primary destinations were to the Netherlands, Indonesia, and Japan.

  • Tomorrow, the USDA will release its WASDE report and expectations are for old crop ending stocks to increase slightly while new crop is expected to fall a bit due to lower acreage. Brazil’s soybean production is expected to be lowered as well.

  • This morning, CONAB released its July estimates for Brazil’s soybean production but made few changes. Production was called at 147.34 mmt compared to 147.35 mmt last month. This compares to 154.61 mmt last year and is still well below the USDA’s last estimate.

Above: The recent break through 1125 support suggests that the market could retreat further towards the next major support area between 1050 and 1040, though psychological support may be uncovered around 1100. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1130 with further resistance up towards 1160 – 1165.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed sharply higher with Kansas City futures leading the charge. Talk that Ukraine seized a Russian cargo vessel containing stolen wheat put some war premium back into the marketplace. Additionally, CONAB lowered their estimate of Brazil’s wheat production from 9.065 mmt last month, to 8.956 mmt this month. Finally, the US Dollar Index was sharply lower today, and at one point hit the lowest level in about a month before gaining some ground back.  

  • Tomorrow will feature the USDA’s monthly Supply and Demand report. The average pre-report estimate for US all wheat production is 1.913 bb, which would be up from 1.875 bb in June. Additionally, US ending stocks are expected to increase. For 23/24 the average guess is 698 mb versus 688 mb in June, and for 24/25 the trade guess is pegged at 793 mb versus 758 mb last month. Finally, world wheat carryout is expected to increase slightly for both crop seasons as well.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 8.8 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 10.8 mb fell below the 15.5 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 800 mb. However, US wheat sales commitments are up 42% from this time last year at 262 mb.

  • Canadian wheat production is estimated at 33.3 mmt, which is a decline of 1% from the previous estimate. Lower potential yields in the province of Saskatchewan due to dryness is cited as the reason for the drop. Yield projections are unchanged for both Alberta and Manitoba.

  • According to their agriculture ministry, Ukraine has exported 1.13 mmt of grain since the season began on July 1. This represents an increase of 62% over last year’s 689,000 mt exported during the same timeframe. Of that total, 320,000 mt was said to be wheat, which is a 51% increase year over year. The surge in exports could be explained by delays and slow inspections last year before Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since late June Chicago wheat has been largely rangebound between 591 up top and 556 down below. Should support hold and prices breakout and close above 600 psychological resistance, they could move toward the 630 – 645 area, while a close below 556 could find further support between 550 and 520.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After breaking through the bottom end of its consolidation range, KC wheat may have found support in the 560 – 550 area of last spring’s lows. If this area holds, prices could turn higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 534 – 554 resistance area. Otherwise, a break below 550 could find further support in the 530 area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 700 – 710 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 644. As long as the Sept ’25 contract remains above 644 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 690 – 710. If the Sept ’25 contract were to close below 644, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 690 – 710 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Therefore, a break of support would trigger a sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: It appears that the rally off the 600 support area encountered resistance just below 640. Should prices continue lower, support remains between 600 and 596, with heavier support towards 542. While a close above 640 could suggest a rally back towards the 662 – 683 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-10 End of Day: China’s First Announced New Crop Bean Purchase Has Little Effect

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market closed the day mixed, with front months settling firmer under the influence of upcoming July expiration, while new crop contracts settled lower as remnants of tropical storm Beryl provided needed moisture for dry areas.

  • The soybean complex continued its slide as the market took consideration of the much needed rain that fell in the dry areas of the eastern corn belt, as today’s report of the first flash new crop soybean sale to China provided little support to the market. The soybeans closed near session lows across the board with continued selling in both soybean meal and oil.

  • All three wheat classes settled lower on the day with KC contracts leading the way down. While the markets are showing signs of being oversold, technical momentum keeps pressure on prices, with additional weakness carried over from Matif wheat futures and neighboring soybeans.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6-10 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the GRACE-Based Root Zone Soil Moisture Drought Indicator courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, NASA Grace, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  With it being the time of year to start getting early sales on the books for next year, and considering that the higher-than-expected June 1 stocks suggest an increasing supply outlook for the 2024 crop, which could create overhead resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, allowing the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished mixed on the day, as front months, under the influence of July expiration on Friday, posted small gains but deferred contracts failed to find any footing as December corn traded lower, marking another new low for the downward move. 

  • Recent rainfall looks to be beneficial across the eastern corn belt with the path of tropical storm Beryl moving through that region. Corn in that area is in pollination and the moisture should provide a good base for this stage.

  • The weekly ethanol production dropped to 1.064 million barrels/day last week, but still up 2% year over year. A total of 105.6 mb of corn was used last week, which is slightly below the pace needed to reach the USDA marketing year target.

  • The USDA will release the weekly export sales report tomorrow morning. Expectations are for new sales to range from 300,000-850,000 mt for old crop and up to 500,000 mt for new crop sales. Corn sales have softened in the past couple of weeks, as demand may be tapering at the end of the marketing year.

  • The corn market will likely stay choppy going into the USDA Crop Production report on Friday. The USDA will be adding in the numbers from the Acreage and Grain Stocks reports on June 28. Expectations are for corn carryout for the 24/25 marketing year to reach 2.272 billion bushels, up 170 mb from last month.

Above: Since mid-June the corn market has been stuck in a downtrend, and the market’s pierce of 393 support suggests that it may slide further, possibly towards the next support area between 362 and 360, if 393 doesn’t hold. If this area of support holds and prices rally back, they could encounter overhead resistance around 410 – 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the upper 1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the 1240 – 1280 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the third consecutive day after rains fell throughout the eastern Corn Belt yesterday from the remnants of hurricane Beryl. Good weather conditions have continued to pressure soybeans along with the rest of the ag complex, despite a sale to China this morning which did not move prices higher. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.

  • On Friday, the USDA will release its July WASDE report, and early estimates are expecting that US stockpiles for 23/24 will increase slightly by 3 mb while new crop is expected to be unchanged. Brazilian soybean production estimates are expected to be lowered to 152.1 mmt from 153.0 mmt last month, with world stockpiles expected to be mostly unchanged.

  • This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year. This confirmed previous rumors and was also the first new crop sale of soybeans to China so far.

  • As of July 2, funds were reported to have added 11,263 contracts of soybeans to their net short position which increased it to 140,926 contracts. Hedge funds have sold ag products aggressively throughout the past 6 weeks and are now the shortest they have been since September 2019.

Above: The recent break through 1125 support suggests that the market could retreat further towards the next major support area between 1050 and 1040, though psychological support may be uncovered around 1100. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1130 with further resistance up towards 1160 – 1165.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was under pressure again, closing lower across all three US futures classes. Kansas City contracts led the decline with double-digit losses, followed by Chicago futures. This weakness was driven by losses in Paris milling wheat futures and a further drop in US soybean futures. Additionally, momentum indicators point to the downside for wheat, despite futures being near or at oversold levels. 

  • For the season that just ended on June 30, the European Union’s soft wheat exports reached 31 mmt, representing a 2% decline from the 31.6 mmt of shipments last year, according to the European Commission. North African nations were the top importers of this wheat, with Morocco taking 4.28 mmt, Nigeria 3.14 mmt, and Algeria 2.9 mmt.

  • According to an agricultural regulatory agency, Rosselkhoznadzor, Russian grain and grain product exports reached 89.3 mmt in the 23/24 season. This is up 21% from the previous year. This data, based on phytosanitary certificates, also indicated that India’s imports of Russian grain during 23/24 increased by a factor of 22 compared to the previous year.

  • Throughout the next several days, above normal temperatures are expected to move east through the Canadian prairies, and is likely to persist into next week. Much of this area has good soil moisture levels, with some places even in surplus. So, this drier and warmer pattern may actually benefit crops and spring wheat development.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that September KC wheat may have resumed its downtrend, though it may have found support in the 560 – 550 area of last spring’s lows. If this area holds, prices could turn higher before hitting resistance near 600. Otherwise, a break below 550 could find further support in the 530 area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 700 – 710 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 644. As long as the Sept ’25 contract remains above 644 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 690 – 710. If the Sept ’25 contract were to close below 644, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 690 – 710 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Therefore, a break of support would trigger a sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: It appears that the rally off the 600 support area encountered resistance just below 640. Should prices continue lower, support remains between 600 and 596, with heavier support towards 542. While a close above 640 could suggest a rally back towards the 662 – 683 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-9 End of Day: Soybeans Continue Their Slide Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • While the corn market closed fractionally higher on the day, the day’s trade was mostly consolidating in nature following yesterday’s sharp selloff, as another day of steep declines in the soybean market limited any rally potential.

  • Soybeans continued their slide lower from Monday’s weakness with a favorable weather outlook and improved crop ratings. Additional downward pressure came from weaker soybean meal and oil. August soybeans posted fresh contract lows, while November beans posted a new low for the move lower, and its lowest close in three years.

  • Soybean oil led the losses in the soybean complex, as it saw just over a 4% (1.95 cent) decline in the December contract on technical selling from being overbought as traders likely booked profits from its recent sharp rally.

  • Following choppy two sided trade, the wheat complex ended the day mixed with all three classes closing in the lower end of their respective daily ranges. Chicago and KC contracts settled marginally higher, while Minneapolis was lower. While a rebound in Matif wheat lent support, weakness in soybeans and declining Russian export values added overhead resistance.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  With it being the time of year to start getting early sales on the books for next year, and considering that the higher-than-expected June 1 stocks suggest an increasing supply outlook for the 2024 crop, which could create overhead resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, allowing the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market at least took a pause from the selling pressure, but today’s firmer trade was a consolidating type of trade, and disappointing in that the market failed to see some form of true price recovery after Monday’s steep decline. Ongoing strong selling in the soybean market limited rally potential in both corn and wheat during the session.

  • The USDA released the latest crop ratings on Monday afternoon. Corn conditions were rated at 68% good to excellent, up 1% from last week and above market expectations. Key corn producing states of Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana, all saw ratings improve week over week. The corn crop is hitting the pollination stage with 24% of the crop silking, up 10% over the 5-year average.

  • The July 2nd Commitment of Traders report was released on Monday afternoon. Hedge funds were big sellers in the corn market going into that report, adding 58,872 new shorts to reach a net short position of 336,458 contracts. The strong selling pressure from the USDA Grain Stock and Acres report likely boosted that total. The next commitment of traders report data will be collected today and reported on Friday. It is anticipated that the funds net short position will surpass their peak net short from February.

  • Weather forecasts remain overall non-threatening for corn production. Precipitation remaining from Hurricane Beryl is moving through the eastern Corn Belt, providing needed rainfall in some of those areas. Temperatures are to remain above normal, but still in a range that is beneficial for most corn crop development.

  • The combination of a large on-farm corn supply and the potential strong harvest will likely keep pressure on the front end of the market and limit rallies. Producers will be looking to move old crop bushels to make room for the potential new crop supply this fall.

Above: Since mid-June the corn market has been stuck in a downtrend, and the market’s pierce of 393 support suggests that it may slide further, possibly towards the next support area between 362 and 360, if 393 doesn’t hold. If this area of support holds and prices rally back, they could encounter overhead resistance around 410 – 415.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 58,872 contracts between June 26 – July 2, bringing their total position to a net short 336,538 contracts.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1260 – 1290 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower again today after yesterday’s sharp selloff as weather remains mostly favorable and crop conditions improve. Funds have been heavy sellers across the entire ag complex as they anticipate a large crop this fall. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower, but soybean oil was the bigger loser with losses in excess of 4% in all contracts.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the soybean good to excellent rating rising by one point to 68%, while the poor to very poor rating fell to 8%. Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio improved the most while Mississippi, North Carolina, and North Dakota declined. 34% of the crop is blooming, which compares to the average of 28% and 9% are setting pods which compares to the average of 5%.

  • While soybean prices have been falling, crush margins have been rising as a result. Based on August futures, the value of crushed soybeans was $2.44 above the cost of cash soybeans which is one of the most profitable levels since last summer. This has incentivized processors to buy cash soybeans which is supporting the large premium for August futures over the November contract.

  • As of July 2, funds were reported to have added 11,263 contracts of soybeans to their net short position which increased to 140,926 contracts. Hedge funds have sold ag products aggressively throughout the past 6 weeks and are now the shortest they have been since September 2019.

Above: Support in the area of 1130 – 1125 appears to be holding. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1160 – 1165 with further resistance up towards 1185 – 1200. Otherwise, if they retreat further, support may be found near 1045.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 11,263 contracts between June 26 – July 2, bringing their total position to a net short 140,926 contracts.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed marginally higher in Chicago and Kansas City futures but posted small losses in the Minneapolis contracts. Paris milling wheat futures reversed from yesterday’s lower close to post gains of 3.25 to 4.75 euros per mt which was supportive to the US market. However, another increase to the US Dollar Index today limited any upside movement in wheat, along with pressure from the sharply lower soy complex.

  • According to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, winter wheat is now 63% harvested, keeping the pace still well above last year’s 43% and the average of 52%. Additionally, the spring wheat crop is rated 75% good to excellent, a 3% improvement from the previous week and the highest rating for this timeframe in five years. Furthermore, 59% of spring wheat is headed versus 66% a year ago and 60% on average.

  • Russian wheat export values are reportedly continuing to fall according to IKAR, and this should keep pressure on the wheat complex. Said to range from $216 to $224 per mt FOB, that would be $5 to $10 lower than last week’s values. Part of the reason for the decline is due to their wheat harvest peaking and the supply flooding their domestic market.

  • In South America, there is some concern about the winter wheat crops. Planting and crop development are said to be lagging in Brazil, and Rio Grande do Sul is still recovering from historic flooding. In Argentina, soil moisture levels are said to be too low, which may affect establishment of the wheat crop. Widespread frosts in the forecast are also unfavorable.

  • France is Europe’s biggest wheat producer, but due to wet weather their wheat production is expected to fall 15.4% this year to 29.7 mmt. This is according to their ag ministry, and if accurate, would be 14.2% below the five-year average. France’s spring weather was said to be the fourth wettest on record and planted area for soft wheat dropped 10.8% compared with 2023.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,487 contracts between June 26 – July 2, bringing their total position to a net short 73,974 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance is likely near 600 with heavier resistance up towards 630 – 660. Below 576, the market may find further support between 560 – 550.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,031 contracts between June 26 – July 2, bringing their total position to a net short 43,103 contracts.

Above: Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 700 – 710 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 644. As long as the Sept ’25 contract remains above 644 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 690 – 710. If the Sept ’25 contract were to close below 644, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 690 – 710 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Therefore, a break of support would trigger a sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: It appears that the rally off the 600 support area encountered resistance just below 640. Should prices continue lower, support remains between 600 and 596, with heavier support towards 542. While a close above 640 could suggest a rally back towards the 662 – 683 resistance area.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,537 contracts between June 26 – July 2, bringing their total position to a net short 22,455 contracts.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-8 End of Day: A Risk Off Day Leads Grain Markets to a Lower Close

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A “risk-off” day dominated the grain markets, leading December corn to its lowest close since March 2021, driven by technical selling and a non-threatening weather forecast.

  • The soybean complex sold off on an improved weather forecast for the eastern Corn Belt, led by November beans, which printed its lowest close since September 2021. Sharply lower soybean meal and lower soybean oil also contributed to the weakness in soybeans.

  • Along with corn and soybeans, the wheat complex closed sharply lower across all three classes, with pressure coming from a relatively benign weather forecast, a swift Ukrainian wheat harvest, and sharply lower French wheat.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  With it being the time of year to start getting early sales on the books for next year, and considering that the higher-than-expected June 1 stocks suggest an increasing supply outlook for the 2024 crop, which could create overhead resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, allowing the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong selling pressure across the grain markets fueled by technical selling and a friendly weather forecast weighed heavily on the corn market to start the week. December corn futures lost 3.83%, closing at a new low for the move.

  • Corn charts look defensive technically as prices pushed through the low established on June 28 after the Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. The soft technical close looks to have the December corn market ready to test the key psychological 400 price.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn to unknown destinations this morning. The total sales were 135,636 mt, split with 50,800 mt for the 23/24 marketing year and 84,800 mt for the 24/25 marketing year.

  • According to the USDA, as of July 2, just 7% of US corn acres were experiencing drought. While this is a 1% increase from the previous week, it is well below the 67% level a year ago. With growing conditions mostly favorable for most of the Midwest, corn may be difficult to rally without a shift in weather.

  • China is facing extreme weather; their summer has been excessively hot and dry in areas, with flooding and typhoons in other areas. This week there have been flood alerts in multiple provinces, and there is concern about both the Yellow and Yangtze rivers overflowing. All of this could affect corn production, among other crops, and lead to domestic food inflation.

Above: Since mid-June the corn market has been stuck in a downtrend, and the market’s pierce of 393 support suggests that it may slide further, possibly towards the next support area between 362 and 360, if 393 doesn’t hold. If this area of support holds and prices rally back, they could encounter overhead resistance around 410 – 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1260 – 1290 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower in a day of very negative trade across the entire grain complex that was spurred by weather forecasts over the weekend showing hurricane Beryl bringing rains to the eastern Corn Belt. In November soybeans, today’s losses wiped out all of last week’s gains. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower today as well.

  • This morning’s Export Inspections report showed 10 mb of soybeans were inspected for export in the week ending July 4 which was on the lower side and brings total inspections for 23/24 to 1.537 billion bushels, down 16% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating total soybean exports for 23/24 at 1.700 bb.

  • There have been no deliveries so far this month against the July soybean contract while domestic crush demand remains firm. Additionally, the July/August soybean spread has moved to its highs while the August/November spread has widened significantly to 50 ½ cents.

  • The CFTC data was delayed due to the holiday and will be out later this afternoon, but it is estimated that funds hold a net short position of 119,000 contracts of soybeans and 74,000 contracts of bean oil. They are also estimated to be long over 80,000 contracts of soybean meal.

Above: Support in the area of 1130 – 1125 appears to be holding. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1160 – 1165 with further resistance up towards 1185 – 1200. Otherwise, if they retreat further, support may be found near 1045.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed sharply lower alongside corn and soybeans. A relatively benign weather forecast for the majority of the Midwest has offered weakness to corn and beans, and without their support, it will be difficult for wheat to rally. Furthermore, continued winter wheat harvest pressure, a sharply lower close for Paris wheat futures, and a higher US Dollar Index today all created downward pressure.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 12.5 mb bring 24/25 total inspections to 64 mb. That is 14% above a year ago and inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s projected pace. Additionally, they are anticipating 800 mb of wheat exports in 24/25 which would be up 11% from last year.

  • According to Ukraine’s agriculture ministry, the country has harvested 1.62 mmt of wheat as of July 5 across 482,200 hectares. In contrast, last year’s harvest for the same timeframe was significantly lower, with only 172,000 metric tons harvested from 51,400 hectares.

  • As reported by Reuters, Iraq has obtained 5.9 mmt of domestic wheat since their harvest started in April. In addition, according to the Iraqi grain board, the country is expected to purchase a total of 6.3 mmt by the end of harvest.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance is likely near 600 with heavier resistance up towards 630 – 660. Below 576, the market may find further support between 560 – 550.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 700 – 710 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 644. As long as the Sept ’25 contract remains above 644 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 700 – 710. If the Sept ’25 contract were to close below 644, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 700 – 710 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Therefore, a break of support would trigger a sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: It appears that the rally off the 600 support area encountered resistance just below 640. Should prices continue lower, support remains between 600 and 596, with heavier support towards 542. While a close above 640 could suggest a rally back towards the 662 – 683 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-5 End of Day: Higher Closes Across the Board Heading into the Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • While the corn market continues to consolidate following last week’s bearish USDA report, it recovered Wednesday’s losses with help from carryover strength from the wheat market.

  • With continued support from higher soybean oil and additional support from higher meal, the soybean market closed higher for fourth session in a row. It posted a bullish key reversal on both the August and November weekly charts as funds likely covered some short positions to take profits.

  • Reports of declining French wheat yields likely pushed Matif wheat to its higher close which, along with a lower US Dollar, contributed to the sharp rally across the wheat complex as traders returned from the July 4th holiday. While export shipments were weak, wheat export sales for the 24/25 crop year were strong and added to today’s gains.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations. We will be looking to make another sales recommendation by July 8 if our upside objectives aren’t met by then.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Today, the corn market recovered its pre-July 4th holiday losses, but the rally lost momentum as it faced resistance near Tuesday’s highs. Since last Friday’s bearish USDA report, corn futures have remained rangebound as they continue to consolidate.

  • Today the USDA reported new export sales for the week ending June 27. New sales for the 23/24 season came in at 14.1 mb, with 12.3 mb reported for the 24/25 new crop season. Total shipments of 35.2 mb fell below the 37.1 mb pace needed to reach the USDA’s projections.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina’s corn crop is 63% harvested, close to the average pace. However, according to the International Grains Council, US corn FOB values remain slightly cheaper compared to both Argentina and Brazil.

  • Weather forecasts remain mostly favorable for crops heading into next week, with additional rainfall expected in parts of the eastern Corn Belt early in the week, on top of recent precipitation. Temperatures are also predicted to stay around average, which may offer some resistance to the corn market.

Above: Bearish stocks and acreage numbers pushed prices through the February low of 408 ¾. The next level of potential support lies near 393. Initial overhead resistance may enter the market between 420 and 430.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1260 – 1290 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the fourth consecutive day following the 4th of July holiday and closed higher on the week. Support today came from strength in both soybean meal and oil, but there was likely also some end of week profit taking by the funds who have a net short position. Weather has been wet overall, and some areas are dealing with flooding which could be detrimental.

  • For the week, August soybeans, which are the new front month, were higher by 32 ¾ cents at 1166 ¼ and November gained 25 ¾ cents to 1129 ¾. August soybean meal was higher by $11.20 to $357.20, and August soybean oil gained 5.48 cents to 49.55 cents. Strength continued this week after last Friday’s bullish Stocks and Acreage report.

  • The USDA released its export sales report today which was delayed due to the holiday which showed an increase of 8.4 million bushels of soybeans for 23/24 and an increase of 5.5 million bushels for 24/25. Last week’s export shipments of 11.2 mb were below the 13.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Egypt, the Netherlands, and Mexico.

  • There have been rumors that Indonesia and China are headed towards a trade war scenario, with Indonesia potentially placing a 200% import tariff on Chinese goods in order to protect its domestic producers. This could cause China to look elsewhere for soybean oil, potentially the US.

Above: Support in the area of 1130 – 1125 appears to be holding. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1160 – 1165 with further resistance up towards 1185 – 1200. Otherwise, if they retreat further, support may be found near 1045.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed sharply higher across the complex. Support came from a higher close in Matif wheat futures and a lower close for the US Dollar Index after it fell through some moving average support. Additionally, some estimates of declining yields for the French crop are also bullish.

  • According to Intercereales and Arvalis, French wheat crop yields are expected to decline by 13% year over year to 6.4 mt per hectare. This decrease is attributed to very wet weather; initial rains caused planting delays, and additional rains during the growing season led to issues with weeds and disease. If accurate, this yield decline would be about 11% below the average and the lowest since 2016.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 29.6 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments of 11.3 mb last week fell below the 15.6 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 800 mb. In addition, US wheat sales commitments for 24/25 are at 254 mb, which is up 49% from a year ago.

  • Since their season began on July 1, Ukraine has exported 315,000 mt of grain according to their ag ministry. Of this total, 169,000 mt is wheat, a significant increase from the 9,000 mt exported during the same period last year

  • According to FAO-AMIS, 24/25 global wheat stockpiles are estimated at 308.4 mmt, up from their June estimate of 306.8 mmt. Additionally, world wheat production is forecasted at 789.1 mmt which is about equal to the year prior.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 85.3% of the 24/25 wheat crop has now been planted, a 4.3% increase from the previous week. The planted area was kept unchanged at 6.3 million hectares, compared to the 5.9 million hectares planted last year.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance is likely near 600 with heavier resistance up towards 630 – 660. Below 576, the market may find further support between 560 – 550.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 700 – 710 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 644. As long as the Sept ’25 contract remains above 644 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 700 – 710. If the Sept ’25 contract were to close below 644, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 700 – 710 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Therefore, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: It appears that the rally off the 600 support area encountered resistance just below 640. Should prices continue lower, support remains between 600 and 596, with heavier support towards 542. While a close above 640 could suggest a rally back towards the 662 – 683 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-3 End of Day: Markets Close Mixed Going into the July 4th Break; Beans Higher, Corn and Wheat Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Thursday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market continued to consolidate as it headed into the July 4th holiday break. The generally favorable weather forecast and declines in the wheat complex kept overhead pressure in place, limiting corn’s rally potential.

  • Soybeans closed higher for the third consecutive day except for the November ’25 contract, which posted gains on two of the three days. Primary support came from soybean oil, which has settled higher for the last six sessions. Reports of higher SAF/biodiesel capacity and lower soybean oil stocks, despite a rise in crush, have supported the oil market.

  • The wheat complex followed through on yesterday’s weakness across all three classes. Lower Matif wheat added carryover weakness, and though we are on the back half of winter wheat harvest, farmer selling continues to add overhead resistance to prices.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 to 10-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and this week’s Drought Monitor, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations. We will be looking to make another sales recommendation by July 8 if our upside objectives aren’t met by then.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures failed to find any traction before the 4th of July holiday, as the market stayed under pressure with weakness in the wheat market, and an overall benign weather forecast going into the end of the week.

  • Weather forecasts stay friendly for crops going into the holiday. Weather models are looking for rain across portions of Illinois, Indiana into Ohio for the end of the week, with above normal overall temps. The market will be shifting its focus to August weather after the holiday.

  • The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on Friday morning before the market opens. Expectations are for new corn sales to range from 500,000 – 900,000 mt for old crop, and up to 400,000 mt for new. With the expanded potential supply in front of the corn market, export demand will be key in the weeks ahead to cut into that projected supply picture.

  • Despite the holiday, Friday’s trade could be key in setting the direction of the corn market next week.  The failed attempt to push higher on Tuesday and today’s weakness leave the door open for downside pressure. A weaker trading session on Friday with an overall friendly weather forecast could set the tone for next week.

Above: Bearish stocks and acreage numbers pushed prices through the February low of 408 ¾. The next level of potential support lies near 393. Initial overhead resistance may enter the market between 420 and 430.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1260 – 1290 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the third consecutive day ahead of the 4th of July holiday tomorrow. Support has mainly come from higher soybean oil which has closed higher for 6 consecutive days at this point. Soybean meal was mixed again with lower closes in the front months and higher closes in the deferred.

  • This morning, the USDA announced a flash export sale of 110,100 mt (4 MB) of soybeans to unknown destinations. This sale was split with 55,100 mt for old crop and 55,000 mt for new.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Friday morning. Expectations are for US exporters to report new sales ranging from 200,000 – 600,000 mt for old crop and 50,000 – 150,000 mt of new. New crop sales are off to an extremely slow start. Currently, new crop soybean sales are at 1.225 mmt, a 24-year low for this time of year.

  • After the 4th of July holiday, the market will shift its focus to the August weather forecast. August weather is the key for development of the soybean crop. Weather has been mixed so far this month with necessary rains falling in the eastern Corn Belt, while other areas in the northwest have received too much rain.

Above: Support in the area of 1130 – 1125 appears to be holding. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1160 – 1165 with further resistance up towards 1185 – 1200. Otherwise, if they retreat further, support may be found near 1045.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex continued its decline, unable to recover from yesterday’s losses, after encountering overhead resistance near the previous day’s highs. Despite harvest progress surpassing 54%, brisk farmer selling likely added to the overhead pressure. Additionally, Matif wheat closed below significant moving average support, adding carryover weakness to the US wheat markets.

  • Drought conditions are reportedly spreading in the Black Sea region, with expected temperatures in the 90s and 100s, potentially impacting the yields of Russian spring wheat.

  • The ongoing Russian wheat harvest has seen better than expected yields with minimal frost damage as reported by some Russian groups, which has been weighing on Russian export prices, and pressuring world wheat prices since the run up in May on Russian wheat production concerns.

  • SovEcon has raised its estimate of Russia’s wheat crop by 3.4 mmt to 84.1 mmt. For comparison, the USDA’s estimate is 83 mmt, which aligns with most private estimates hovering around 80 mmt.

  • The Minneapolis Grain Exchange reported in its weekly report that spring wheat stocks stored in Minnesota and Wisconsin warehouses as of June 30 were down 5.6% to 10.954 million bushels from the same period last year.  When compared to the week prior, stocks fell 76,000 bu.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance is likely near 600 with heavier resistance up towards 630 – 660. Below 576, the market may find further support between 560 – 550.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Grain Market Insider is continuing to monitor the markets and may begin considering the first sales targets after July 8.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: It appears that the rally off the 600 support area encountered resistance just below 640. Should prices continue lower, support remains between 600 and 596, with heavier support towards 542. While a close above 640 could suggest a rally back towards the 662 – 683 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.