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10-01 End of Day: Government Shutdown Adds Uncertainty to Grain Market Activity

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn prices made a sharp turnaround, ending the day with gains despite the volatile trading following yesterday’s USDA report.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed higher mid-week following a tweet from President Trump regarding tariffs and potential support for producers.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat ended the day mixed, with Chicago wheat leading gains while Kansas City wheat fell, as the government shutdown and a weak U.S. dollar contributed to market volatility.

  • To see updated U.S. and South America weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn ended the day with modest gains after a morning of volatility, following yesterday’s bearish stock data from the USDA and favorable weather for the ongoing corn harvest. Despite the fluctuations, the market’s slight recovery suggests a stabilization or correction after the initial reaction to the USDA report. December’s contract closed up 1 cent at $4.16 ½ .

  • For the week ending Friday, September 26, ethanol production slipped to 995 tbd, or 292 million gallons, down from 301 million the previous week and 2% below year-ago levels. This is the lowest production level in 4.5 months and fell short of expectations. Corn usage for ethanol production totaled 99 mb, or 14.16 mb per day, well below the 15.4 mbd needed to reach the USDA’s corn usage estimate of 5.6 bb.

  • Ethanol margins are expected to remain solid in the near term, supported by the weekly report showing production down 29,000 barrels per day and stocks falling 700,000 barrels.

  • Daily corn export updates will be suspended for the duration of the government shutdown, leaving traders without official USDA export sales data.

  • Favorable weather in the U.S. continues to allow the corn harvest to progress with minimal delays. As the crop comes off, Dr. Cordonnier left his U.S. corn yield estimate unchanged at 182 bpa but noted that southern rust is emerging as a significant concern in parts of the Midwest.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell one-quarter of the January 1040 puts.

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A recommendation to sell one-quarter of the January ‘26 1040 puts has been added. This recommendation has been made to begin reducing the put position in a seasonally weak time period. This means that 25% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 75% of the original position to continue providing downside protection.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher following a dramatic reversal triggered by a bullish tweet from President Trump. November soybeans gained 11 ¼ cents to $10.13, rebounding from an intraday low of $9.93 ¾. March soybeans rose 10 ½ cents to $10.46 ¼, October soybean meal fell $1.00 to $264.70, and October soybean oil added 0.88 cents to 49.75 cents.

  • Earlier today, President Trump tweeted that a small portion of tariff revenue would be allocated to help farmers and that he plans to meet with President Xi of China in four weeks, with soybeans as a “major topic of discussion.” Soybeans immediately rebounded on the news.

  • Yesterday’s Grain Stocks report showed quarterly soybean stocks at 316 million bushels, slightly below the average estimate of 322 million but within the range of 295–347 million bushels and was generally viewed as neutral. With early yield reports looking strong, the market may anticipate higher stock levels moving forward.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates new-crop Brazilian bean production at 48.5 million tons, down from 50.3 million last season, as producers shift acreage toward corn. Their profitability models indicate that corn is currently the more attractive option for the region.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Chicago wheat futures led the wheat complex today, with the December contract closing 1 ¼ cents higher at $5.09 ¼. December Kansas City wheat fell 2 ¼ cents to $4.95 ½, while December Minneapolis (MIAX) wheat dropped 5 ¾ cents to $5.57 00. The ongoing government shutdown and a weaker dollar weighed on wheat prices.

  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports are down 31% year-over-year. The EU’s export season began on July 1, and as of September 28, wheat exports have totaled only 4.37 mmt, compared with 6.36 mmt during the same period last year.

  • Russia is expected to lower its wheat export tax to 617.7 rubles per ton, down from 655.6 rubles per ton the previous week.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has raised their wheat production forecast for Argentina to 22 mmt, up from the group’s previous estimate of 20.5 mmt.

  • LSEG has also raised their Canadian wheat production estimate by 4.4% to 36.5 mmt, citing better yields as harvest progresses across the country.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 606.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 610.25 to 606.75.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 606.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 606.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 602 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 585 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 628.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sales target has been lowered from 587 to 585.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 639 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 639.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 628.75 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

Above: From ag-wx.com

Above: From ag-wx.com

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9-30 End of Day: Grains Slide on Larger-Than-Expected Stocks Report

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures fell Tuesday after USDA’s Sept. 1 stocks report showed supplies above trade expectations.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans slipped Tuesday despite a neutral Grain Stocks report, pressured by weak export inspections and spillover losses from corn and wheat.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures fell sharply Tuesday, with a bearish quarterly grain stocks report driving prices back toward recent lows.

  • To see updated U.S. and South America weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw selling pressure to end the month of September as Tuesday’s USDA Grain Stocks report was heavier than anticipated. December corn futures lost 6 cents to 415 ½, and March futures lost 6 ½ cents to 432.

  • The USDA released the Quarterly Grains Stocks report on Tuesday morning. Corn stocks as of September 1 were 1.532 BB, up from 1.352 BB in the September report and well above expectations. Despite the increase, corn stocks are still 13% below last year’s levels.

  • The revision of grain stocks by 207 mb was the largest revision since the 2018-19 marketing year. Corn futures held support despite the higher supply forecast. Market analysts anticipated a large possible supply given the actions of the cash market over the past handful of months.

  • The USDA slightly increased harvested acres on the 2024-25 corn crop, increasing production by 25 mb for last year. Quarterly usage was weaker than expected, reflecting lighter feed demand with smaller cattle and hog numbers.

  • Corn harvest was 18% complete as of Sunday, September 28. This was slightly below expectations, and down 1% from the 5-year average. Favorable weather forecasts for the Corn Belt this week should move harvest along and harvest pressure will likely limit the market.

Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell one-quarter of the January 1040 puts.

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A recommendation to sell one-quarter of the January ‘26 1040 puts has been added. This recommendation has been made to begin reducing the put position in a seasonally weak time period. This means that 25% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 75% of the original position to continue providing downside protection.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower following a bearish Crop Progress report and a neutral Grain Stocks report. November lost 8-3/4 cents to $10.01-3/4 and managed to stay above $10.00 throughout the day. March soybeans lost 9-3/4 cents to $10.35-3/4, October soybean meal lost $2.40 to $265.70, and October soybean oil lost 0.24 cents to 48.87 cents.

  • Today’s Grain Stocks report saw quarterly stocks for soybeans at 316 million bushels, which was slightly below the average guess of 322 mb but was within the range of estimates between 295 mb and 347 mb and was seen as neutral. Early yield reports are good so trade may believe that the stock number rises.

  • Crop Progress saw soybean crop ratings improve one point from last week to 62% while trade estimates were expecting a decline. 79% of the crop is dropping leaves and 19% is harvested. Wet weather last week delayed harvest, but this week is expected to be dry.

  • Yesterday’s Export Inspections report saw soybean inspections on the lower end of trade estimates. Soybean inspections totaled 21.8 million bushels for the week ending September 25. This put total inspections for 25/26 at 82.5 mb, which is up from 16% the previous year.

Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted double-digit losses for both Chicago and Kansas City futures, with smaller losses for MIAX contracts. Dec Chi closed 11-1/2 cents lower at 508, KC was down 10-1/2 at 497-3/4, and MIAX lost 6-1/2 cents to 562-3/4. A combination of negative report data, a lower close for Matif wheat futures, and the increasing likelihood of a government shutdown all weighed on the wheat complex today.

  • USDA pegged September 1 wheat stocks at 2.120 bb, above the high end of pre-report estimates and up from 1.992 bb last year. All-wheat production for 2025/26 came in at 1.985 bb, also above expectations, versus 1.927 bb in August and 1.971 bb last year. Winter wheat output totaled 1.402 bb, up 3% from 2024.

  • Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report indicated that the U.S. winter wheat crop is now 34% planted, which is down 3% from last year and 2% from the five-year average pace. Additionally, 13% of the crop is emerged, which is in line with last year, and 1% above the five-year average.

  • Brazilian domestic wheat prices are said to be falling, largely pressured by their new crop harvest. According to CONAB, an estimated 23.2% of the planted wheat area in Brazil has been harvested as of September 20. Additionally, data from Secex indicates that Brazil’s September wheat imports through the first two weeks of September totaled about 293,450 mt, down 50% versus September of 2024.

  • Poland’s statistics office has increased their estimate of their country’s wheat production from 12.8 mmt to 13.4 mmt. Furthermore, the total Polish grain crop is estimated at 37.1 mmt.

  • According to Russia’s economic development minister, Russia is working with China to lift restrictions on imports of Russian winter wheat and barley, among other goods. Both countries signed an agreement in May regarding the promotion and mutual protection of investment. Trade between Russia and China exceeded $244 billion last year, and could increase if these restrictions are eliminated.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 610.25 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 610.25.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 610.25 vs December ‘25. A close above 610.25 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 602 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 602.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 587 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 628.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 636.50.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 641 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 641.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 628.75 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 628.75.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day total precipitation forecast, courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: South America 7-day total precipitation forecast, courtesy of National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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9-29 End of Day: Grains Finish Mixed Ahead Of Grain Stocks Report

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures finish mixed as traders finalize positioning ahead of the September 30 Grain Stocks report.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans begin the week lower as traders await grain stocks data from USDA, as well as renewable diesel and biodiesel data from EIA.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures finished mixed despite strong export data. Traders await information from the Grain Stocks report due tomorrow.

  • To see updated U.S. and South America weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished mixed on the session with light selling pressure at the front end of the market. Despite additional export demand, harvest pressure and positioning for tomorrow’s USDA Grain Stock report limited the upside. December futures slipped ½ cent to 421 ½, and March lost ¼ cent to 438 ½.

  • Weekly corn inspections total 1.527 MMT (60.1 mb) for the week ending September 25. For this early part of the marketing year, we have shipped just over 5.0 MMT, which is up 52% over last year in this time window.

  • USDA announced 2 flash sales of export corn on Monday morning. USDA reported sales of 135,660 MT (5.3 mb) to Mexico and 110,668 MT (4.4 mb) to Unknown Destinations, both sales for the current marketing year.

  • USDA will release the September 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Tuesday. Expectations for corn supply stocks to be near 1.336 billion bushels, which is down over 400 mb from last year, reflecting the strong corn demand. Market analysts are cautious that the USDA could raise the 2024 corn crop, potentially adding bushels to the U.S. supply.

  • Above normal temperatures and dry conditions should allow corn harvest to progress rapidly this week. The infusion of freshly harvested bushels into the pipeline will likely limit corn prices due to ongoing harvest pressure.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, September 23. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers sold 14,624 contracts between September 16 – September 23, bringing their total position to a net short 94,675 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ALERT – Sell one-quarter of the January 1040 puts.

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A recommendation to sell one-quarter of the January ‘26 1040 puts has been added. This recommendation has been made to begin reducing the put position in a seasonally weak time period. This means that 25% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 75% of the original position to continue providing downside protection.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower, falling from overnight highs, but climbed back from lows around noon today. Soybeans have been rangebound for over a week. November lost 3-1/4 cents to $10.10-1/2 and March lost 3-1/2 cents to $10.45-1/2. October meal lost $0.70 to $268.10 and October soybean oil lost 0.49 cents to 49.11 cents.

  • Today’s Export Inspections report saw soybean inspections on the lower end of trade estimates. Soybean inspections totaled 21.8 million bushels for the week ending September 25. This put total inspections for 25/26 at 82.5 mb, which is up from 16% the previous year.

  • The Crop Progress report later today is expected to show harvest progress lagging behind the 5-year average as a result of rains throughout the Midwest last week. Temperatures are forecast to be above average this week, which should boost progress.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 31,589 contracts of soybeans as of September 23 leaving them short 29,302 contracts. They sold 22,286 contracts of bean oil leaving them short just 898 contracts and 20,497 contracts of meal which increased their net short position to 103,269 contracts.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, September 23. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers sold 31,589 contracts between September 16 – September 23, bringing their total position to a net short 29,302 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a relatively quiet session, and despite a drop for the U.S. dollar, wheat closed in mixed fashion. December Chicago lost 1/4 cent to 519-1/2 but Kansas City was up 2-3/4 at 508-1/4, and MIAX was up 1-1/2 cents to 569-1/4. Growing world crop estimates appear to be keeping pressure on the U.S. wheat market.

  • Tomorrow will feature the Quarterly Stocks report, as well as the Small Grains Summary. The average pre-report estimate of September 1 wheat stocks comes in at 2.041 bb vs 1.992 bb last year. Additionally, all wheat production for 25/26 is estimated at 1.925 bb, which would be down 2 mb from August, and compares with 1.971 bb during the 24/25 season.

  • Weekly wheat inspections amounted to 27.1 mb, bringing the total 25/26 inspections to 350.4 mb, which is up 15% from last year. Wheat inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace; total 25/26 exports are estimated at 900 mb, up 9% from the year prior.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values finished last week at $230/mt, which is up $2 from the week prior. In related news, the Russian agriculture ministry decreased their export tax on wheat by 5.8% to 617.7 Rubles/mt through October 7.

  • Ukraine has completed their wheat harvest, according to their Economy Ministry. The grain harvest reportedly totaled 30.4 mmt as of September 26, which is down 40% year on year. Of that total, wheat accounted for 22.5 mmt, which is up 0.9% year over year.

  • The European Commission increased their EU soft wheat production estimate from 128.1 mmt to 132.6 mmt last Thursday. This has put pressure on the U.S. market, as well as Paris milling wheat futures.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 617 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 617.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 617 vs December ‘25. A close above 621.25 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 602 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 602.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, September 23. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers sold 12,110 contracts between September 16 – September 23, bringing their total position to a net short 97,935 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 587 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 636.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 636.50.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 636.50 vs December ‘25. A close above 636.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 641 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 641.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, September 23. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers purchased 1,230 contracts between September 16 – September 23, bringing their total position to a net short 50,304 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 639.25 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 639.25.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 639.25 vs December ‘25. A close above 639.25 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, September 16. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers sold 521 contracts between September 16 – September 23, bringing their total position to a net short 26,353 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day total precipitation forecast, courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: South America 7-day total precipitation forecast, courtesy of National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

9-26 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Slump, Soybeans Inch Higher Friday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended the week with moderate losses, pressured by harvest progress, a weak wheat market, and a lack of fresh news.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed modestly higher Friday, supported by soybean meal, though futures remained rangebound all week.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended the week lower across all three classes, pressured by ample global supplies and sluggish export demand.

To see updated U.S. weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Continued Opportunity: Sell one-third of the remaining December ‘25 420 corn puts today.

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • Recommendation to sell one-third of the remaining December ‘25 corn puts has been added. This means that 33% of the remaining position should be closed out, leaving 50% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the week with moderate losses, pressured by harvest progress, weak wheat markets, and a lack of fresh news. December corn lost 3 ¾ cents to 422, and March lost 3 ½ cents to 438 ¾. For the week, December corn traded 2 cents lower.

  • Harvest reached 11% complete as of Sept. 21. Progress is expected to accelerate with above-normal temperatures forecast into mid-October across much of the Corn Belt.

  • Export demand remains strong with 2025/26 sales at 1.014 bb — up 75% from last year and already 34% of USDA’s 2.975 bb annual forecast

  • Demand for U.S. corn on the export market should remain strong as global ending stocks are at their lowest since 2014, and U.S. supplies are forecasted to be well above the 5-year average, leaving the U.S. as the main source of global corn exports.

  • Total acres of U.S. corn acreage in drought reached 26% percent on Thursday’s drought monitor map.  This is nearly triple the acres in drought from 2 weeks ago as areas of the corn belt remain dry, which could impact final yield totals.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher going into the weekend thanks to support from soybean meal, but prices have been rangebound all week. November soybeans gained 1-1/2 cents to $10.13-3/4 and March soybeans gained 1-1/2 cents to $10.49. October soybean meal gained $0.20 to $268.80 and October soybean oil lost 0.14 cents to 49.60 cents.

  • China booked roughly 40 cargoes of Argentine soybeans during the temporary export tax suspension, but with the tax now reinstated, Argentina has met sales goals. Despite the absence of Chinese buying, U.S. soybean export sales have held steady.

  • Dr. Cordonnier revised his estimates for the 2025/26 soybean yields, lowering them to 52 BPA, down 0.5 BPA from his previous estimate. This compares to the USDA’s last estimate of 53.5 BPA. While declining yields could provide support, the lack of Chinese purchases may offset this impact on ending stocks.

  • For the week, November soybeans lost 11-3/4 cents with the bulk of those losses on Monday. March soybeans lost 11-3/4 cents as well. October soybean meal lost $14.10 and came close to the contract low from August. October soybean oil lost 0.43 cents and found support at the 200-day moving average earlier in the week.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat ended the week lower across all three classes, continuing a week of pressure from ample global supplies and sluggish export demand. Prices briefly rallied during Thursday’s trading session, but were unable to sustain gains. Overall, the market remains weighed down by ongoing uncertainty in trade and expectations of steady production levels. The December contract for Chicago is down 7-2 cents at $5.19.

  • SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russian grain exports in 2025/26 by 0.7%, bringing the total to 43.4 mmt. The revision reflects a slower-than-expected start to the export season, with shipments down 29% from July through September. In comparison, the USDA continues to project Russian exports at 45 mmt.

  • President Trump has announced that revenue from tariffs will be used to fund a farmer aid package aimed at supporting producers affected by trade disputes. The package is expected to roll out in early 2026, pending approval.

  • Rains in central and northern Argentina are supporting wheat development, while the EU has raised its total grain output for the upcoming season to 284.2 million tons, up from 276.9 million tons last month. The strength of global wheat production and overall supply continues to put pressure on markets.

  • The USDA is set to release its Small Grains Summary this coming Tuesday. Wheat is expected to see only minor adjustments from previous estimates for the 2025/26 U.S. crop.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 621.25 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 621.25.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 621.25 vs December ‘25. A close above 621.25 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 602 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 602.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 587 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 639.25 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 639.25.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 639.25 vs December ‘25. A close above 639.25 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 641 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 641.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 639.25 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 639.25.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 639.25 vs December ‘25. A close above 639.25 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

|

9-25 End of Day: U.S. Grains Gain on Argentina Export Tax Move

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed higher as harvest progress continues, and strong export demand provides support.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans pushed higher today on news that Argentina reinstated its grain export tax, which is expected to make U.S. soybeans more competitively priced on the global market.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat ended the session on a strong note despite the spike in the U.S. dollar, finding support from news out of Argentina.

To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Continued Opportunity: Sell one-third of the remaining December ‘25 420 corn puts today.

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • Recommendation to sell one-third of the remaining December ‘25 corn puts has been added. This means that 33% of the remaining position should be closed out, leaving 50% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished the day with a modest rally to close with marginal gains on the session. A strong export demand tone was balanced against a strengthening U.S. dollar to limit gains. December corn gained 1 ½ cents to 425 ¾, while March corn added 1 ¼ cents to finish at 442 ¼.

  • Argentina reinstated its export taxes on agricultural commodities Thursday morning after reaching the $7 billion export sales target for all agricultural goods. The corn export tax has returned to 9.5% on Argentine corn exports.

  • Weekly export sales were strong again this week. For the week ending September 18, USDA recorded net sales of 1.923 MMT (75.7 mb). This total exceeded expectations, with Mexico once again the largest buyer of U.S. corn. With this pace, 2025–26 has marked the strongest start to export sales in modern recordkeeping history, surpassing the 2018–19 marketing year.

  • President Trump made a statement on Thursday that his administration is working on a farmer aid package funded by tariff revenue collected by the U.S. While details remain limited, the package is expected to mirror those implemented during his first administration.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index has continued to pressure grain futures prices. The dollar has traded higher in five of the last seven sessions and is currently at its highest level in a month.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher in continued rangebound trade which has seen November soybeans between $10.05 and $10.20 over the past few days. November gained 3-1/4 cents to $10.12-1/4 while March gained 2-3/4 cents to $10.47-1/2. October soybean meal lost $3.10 to $268.60 and October soybean oil gained 0.45 cents to 49.74 cents.

  • Overnight, the Argentine government announced that the country’s $7 billion soybean export sales target had been met, and that the export tax on soybeans will return to 26% today, making U.S. soybeans more competitively priced by comparison.

  • Today’s export sales report saw soybean sales within trade estimates with an increase of 26.6 million bushels for 25/26 and none for 26/27. Top buyers were Egypt, Taiwan, and Mexico. Last week’s export shipments of 18.8 mb were below the 32.1 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates.

  • Dr. Cordonnier revised his estimates for the 2025/26 soybean yields, lowering them to 52 BPA, down 0.5 BPA from his previous estimate. This compares to the USDA’s last estimate of 53.5 BPA. While declining yields could provide support, the lack of Chinese purchases may offset this impact on ending stocks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a strong session today, closing with a 7-1/2 cent gain for December Chicago to 527. Meanwhile, Dec Kansas City was up 5-1/2 cents to 512-1/4 and MIAX gained 5-1/4 cents to 573. This is impressive considering that the U.S. Dollar index surged higher again today, breaking above its 100 day moving average for the first time since August 1.

  • Today’s big news was that Argentina reinstated its grain export tax after just two days, having already met its $7 billion export revenue target. This development provided a boost to the U.S. grain complex, along with reports that U.S. second-quarter GDP data came in stronger than expected.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 19.8 mb in wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week amounted to 32.9 mb which was well above the 16.8 mb pace needed to reach the USDA export goal of 900 mb. Wheat 25/26 sales commitments now total 501 mb, which is up 24% from last year.

  • Global increases to the wheat crop may limit upside for U.S. futures. The European Commission raised its estimate of EU soft wheat production by 4.5 MMT, bringing the total to 132.6 MMT, and also increased the EU wheat export forecast by 4% to 31 MMT. Additionally, IKAR again revised its forecast for Russian production upward, this time by 0.5 MMT to 87.5 MMT, while raising its export estimate by 0.1 MMT to 44.1 MMT.

  • According to an analyst poll, Australia may harvest its third-largest wheat crop on record. The median forecast for the nation’s wheat crop is 35.3 MMT, which would surpass last season’s total of 34.1 MMT and exceed the five-year average of 33.8 MMT. For reference, the all-time record was 40.5 MMT during the 2022/23 season.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 623 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 623.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 623 vs December ‘25. A close above 623 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 602 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 602.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 587 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 644.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 587.

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 644.75.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 644.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 644.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 641 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 641.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 644.75 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 644.75.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 644.75.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 644.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 644.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

|

9-24 End of Day: Stronger U.S. Dollar Weighs on Grains Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures finished softer Wednesday as harvest pressure and a firmer U.S. dollar limited buying interest.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended lower Wednesday after fading from early gains of up to 8 cents, Reuters reported China has purchased 20 soybean cargoes from Argentina following its temporary export tax cut.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower Wednesday in Chicago and Kansas City, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar at a two-week high.

To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Continued Opportunity: Sell one-third of the remaining December ‘25 420 corn puts today.

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • Recommendation to sell one-third of the remaining December ‘25 corn puts has been added. This means that 33% of the remaining position should be closed out, leaving 50% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished softer Wednesday as harvest pressure and a firmer U.S. dollar limited buying interest despite solid export demand. December corn slipped 2 cents to 424-1/4, while March fell 2 cents to 441.

  • Weekly ethanol production averaged 1.024 million barrels/day, down 2.9% from last week and 3% from last year — below expectations. About 102 mb of corn was used, trailing the pace needed to meet USDA’s annual target.

  • USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Wednesday morning. Mexico purchased 312,956 MT (12.3 mb) of corn for the current marketing year.  Since last Friday (9/19), Mexico has purchased nearly 40 mb of U.S. corn. The USDA will release weekly export sales total on Thursday morning.

  • The U.S. dollar climbed to near a two-week high, limiting gains across ag commodities.

  • Longer-range forecasts show above-normal temperatures and normal to below-normal precipitation into October — favorable for harvest, though harvest pressure is expected to cap rallies.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after having faded significantly from earlier morning highs, which saw prices up as much as 8 cents, and futures remain below all major moving averages. November soybeans lost 3 cents on the day to $10.09, while March lost 3 cents to $10.44-3/4. October soybean meal lost $3.40 to $271.70 and October soybean oil lost 0.06 cents to 49.29 cents.

  • Dr. Cordonnier revised his estimates for the 25/26 soybean yields to be lowered to 52 bpa, down 0.5 bpa from his last estimate. This compares to the USDA’s last estimate of 53.5 bpa. While declining yields could be supportive, the lack of Chinese purchases could offset this in the ending stocks.

  • This morning, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 101,400 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Guatemala during the 2025/2026 marketing year. While China has purchased nearly all of their soy products from South America, other countries are pressured to get their needs from the U.S.

  • Reuters reported China has purchased 20 soybean cargoes from Argentina following its temporary export tax cut. While this made Argentine soybeans cheaper, reports also suggest the U.S. will buy Argentine bonds—strengthening the peso and negating some of the competitiveness.

 From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower Wednesday in Chicago and Kansas City, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar at a two-week high. December Chicago lost 1 cent to 519-1/2, Kansas City fell 4-3/4 to 506-3/4, while Minneapolis was steady at 567-3/4. Paris milling wheat posted a second straight higher close, offering some spillover support.

  • U.S. HRW wheat is now priced below comparable Russian and German hard wheats, keeping U.S. export sales ahead of expectations.

  • Over the weekend a storm front brought widespread rainfall to Argentina. However, it was followed by cold air which caused some frost in southeastern areas. This may have caused some wheat damage; however, the rains are timely and are beneficial for wheat development.

  • According to the International Grains Council, Russian wheat export prices increased last week, despite falling for other global exporters. U.S. wheat offers at the Gulf are said to be 12% below where they were last year at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 633.25.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 602.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 602.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 590 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 587.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 642 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 641.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day ECMWF precipitation anomaly courtesy of ag-wx.com

US 10-15 day ECMWF temperature anomaly courtesy of ag-wx.com

|

9-23 End of Day: Grains Stabilize and Recover from Monday Losses

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures finished slightly higher with continued export demand strength supporting market prices.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans futures ended the day with minimal gains, stabilizing following their four-day losing streak.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures recovered from Monday’s losses following reports that Russian export values continue to rise.

To see updated U.S. and South America weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Continued Opportunity: Sell one-third of the remaining December ‘25 420 corn puts today.

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • Recommendation to sell one-third of the remaining December ‘25 corn puts has been added. This means that 33% of the remaining position should be closed out, leaving 50% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures fought off early session lows and closed higher in Tuesday’s session as good export demand helped support prices. December corn gained 4 ½ cents to 426 ¼, and March added 4 ¼ cents to 443.

  • The technical picture for corn improved with today’s price action. December futures held support near 420 and closed at the top of the range above the 100-day moving average, and above yesterday’s high. The strong close could lead to additional short covering and buying strength on Wednesday.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of export corn again on Tuesday morning. Mexico bought 122,947 MT (4.84 mb) of corn, with 100,593 MT (3.96 mb) for this marketing year and 22,354 (880,000 bu) for 2026-27. This was the fourth consecutive morning with an export sale.

  • As export demand remains strong, projections for the corn crop stay on the decline. The dry weather and disease pressure has analyst and satellite data pushing the size of the corn crop closer to the trendline average. This would still be a record corn crop with the additional acres added over the past two WASDE reports.

  • The corn harvest in the US is progressing in line with the 5-year average. As of September 21, 11% of this year’s crop was harvested, up 4% over last week. Wet weather in some regions will slow harvest to start this week, but long-term forecast look support of a good harvest pace.

Corn percent mature (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day quietly higher breaking a 4-day losing streak and coming back from earlier morning lows that took out yesterday’s low. November soybeans gained 1 cent to $10.12 while March soybeans gained ¾ cent to $10.47-3/4. October soybean meal lost $3.80 to $275.10 and October soybean oil gained 0.18 cent to 49.35 cents.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report saw crop ratings fall by 2 points from last week to 61% good to excellent compared to 64% a year ago. 61% of the crop is dropping leaves compared to the 5-year average of 60%. Harvest is now 9% complete compared to 5% a week ago.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections were sluggish for soybeans at 484k tons which compared to 822k last week and 499k a year ago. Top destinations were to Egypt, Indonesia, and United Kingdom. Total inspections for 25/26 are now at 57.7 million bushels, which is up 26% from the previous year.

  • Demand concerns remain as recent trade negotiations with China were disheartening to the soybean market due to little progress on soybean exports. The reduced export taxes by Argentina may allow China to cover more needs for Nov-Dec, an area US exporter were hoping to tap into.

Soybeans percent dropping leaves (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures rebounded today December contracts of Chicago gaining 9-3/4 cents to 520-1/2, Kansas City up 9-1/4 to 511-1/2, and MIAX gaining 3-3/4 to 567-3/4. With little fresh news, this may be a purely technical bounce. However, there are some reports that firming Russian values may be benefiting global wheat prices –  SovEcon has said that Russian wheat export values rose another dollar (versus last week) to $229/mt.

  • According to the USDA, the spring wheat harvest is 96% complete, in line with average and 1% ahead of last year’s pace. Additionally, the winter wheat crop is 20% planted, which is behind both the average and last year’s pace by 3%. Winter wheat is 4% emerged, in line with last year and the average pace.

  • Wheat harvest in Brazil is increasing their domestic supply, leading to suppressed prices. According to CONAB, as of September 13, and estimated 13.8% of the wheat area has been harvested.

  • Ukraine’s economy ministry has reported that winter grain planting has reached 1.6 million hectares as of September 23. This is down slightly from the 1.8 million sown at the same time last year. This year, winter wheat planting has reached 672,000 hectares, compared with 878,800 last year.

  • The Canadian Grain Commission has said that samples of the Canadian durum wheat crop show sprouting damage and mildew, caused by damp weather conditions. Earlier this month, Stats Canada estimated the durum crop at 6.53 mmt – if realized this would be the largest harvest since 2020.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 602.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 602.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 590 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 587.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 642 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 641.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Spring wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day total precipitation forecast, courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: South America 7-day total precipitation forecast, courtesy of National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

Above: South America 7-day maximum temperature anomaly, courtesy of National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

|

9-22 End of Day: Grains Start the Week Lower as Harvest Begins

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures finished lower on Monday, pressured by heavy soybean losses.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans futures finished sharply lower following news that Argentina has suspended its grains export tax, making Argentinian soybeans more competitive in the global market.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures pressed lower, pressured by global market dynamics and spillover weakness from soybeans.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Continued Opportunity: Sell one-third of the remaining December ‘25 420 corn puts today.

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • Recommendation to sell one-third of the remaining December ‘25 corn puts has been added. This means that 33% of the remaining position should be closed out, leaving 50% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures held support but finished lower on the session. News of Argentina export tax cut was balanced by good export demand, helping corn finish with mild loses. December corn finished 2 ¼ cents lower to 421 ¾, and March corn lost 2 ½ cents to 438 ¾.

  • Argentina announced that they would be lowering export taxes for corn and soybean exports to “0” until October 31 on Monday morning. The current export tax for corn was at 9.5%. The reduced export tax makes Argentina corn more competitive with US corn on the export market.

  • Weekly export inspections for corn were within expectations. For the week ending September 18, USDA exporters shipped 1.328 MMT (52.3 mb) of corn. Total inspections for 2025-26 marketing year are now at 137.5 mb, up 59% from the previous year.

  • USDA announced another flash sale of corn on Monday morning. The USDA reported that Mexico purchased 320,068 MT (12.6 mb) of corn for the current marketing year. This was the fourth reported sale of US corn in the past seven days.

  • Corn harvest is expected to push to 13% complete, up 6% from last week on the weekly crop progress report. Recent rainfalls should limit harvest progress early in the week in some areas. The southern corn belt is concerned about heavy rainfall, which could impact crop quality.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, September 16. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers purchased 19,878 contracts between September 9 – September 16, bringing their total position to a net short 80,051 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower after Argentina announced it would cut taxes on grain exports. November soybeans lost 14-1/2 cents to $10.11 while March lost 13-3/4 cents to $10.47. Both contracts are now below all major moving averages. October soybean meal lost $4.00 to $278.90 and October bean oil lost 0.86 cents to 49.17 cents.

  • Argentina announced a reduction in their soybean and corn export taxes to “0” until October 31. The current export tax for soybeans was at 26% and soybean oil and meal at 24.5%. The reduction of the export tax move Argentina soybean and product into a more competitive price level with U.S. soybeans.

  • Demand concerns remain as recent trade negotiations with China were disheartening to the soybean market due to little progress on soybean exports. The reduced export taxes by Argentina may allow China to cover more needs for Nov-Dec, an area US exporter were hoping to tap into.

  • Weekly soybean export inspections were withing expectations on Monday.  For the week ending September 18, U.S. exporters shipped 484,00MT (17.8 mb) of soybeans. U.S. soybean export shipments typically peak in mid to late October for U.S. Soybean exports.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, September 16. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers purchased 17,001 contracts between September 9 – September 16, bringing their total position to a net long 2,287 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted double digit losses for Chicago futures, with the December contract down 11-3/4 cents to 510-3/4. Dec Kansas City lost 5 cents to 502-1/4 and MIAX closed 3-1/2 cents lower at 564. The grain complex was largely pressured by news that Argentina has eliminated their export taxes on all grains through October 31, or until income reaches the equivalent of $7 billion. The wheat export duty was previously 9.5%.

  • Weekly wheat inspections amounted to 31.4 mb, coming in above expectations. This brings the total 25/26 inspections to 320.1 mb, up 13% from last year. Inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace. Total 25/26 wheat exports are forecasted at 900 mb, up 9% from the year prior.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values increased $3 last week to $228/mt. There are rumors that IKAR may raise their estimate of the Russian wheat crop to 88 mmt on good yields. SovEcon is forecasting Russia’s September wheat exports will reach 4.2 mmt.

  • The Rosario Grains Exchange has estimated that Argentina’s 25/26 grain exports could be a record 105.1 mmt. The previous high was 104.1 mmt in the 18/19 season. Due to lower grain prices, they project that income would be steady with last season at $34.8 billion.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 602.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 602.75.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, September 16. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers purchased 6,569 contracts between September 9 – September 16, bringing their total position to a net short 85,825 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 590 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 642 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, September 16. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers purchased 1,491 contracts between September 9 – September 16, bringing their total position to a net short 51,534 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, September 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers sold 1,433 contracts between September 9 – September 16, bringing their total position to a net short 25,832 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day total precipitation forecast, courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: South America 7-day total precipitation forecast, courtesy of National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

|

9-19 End of Day: Grains Weaken to End the Week as U.S.-China Talks Stall

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures finished mixed to lower on Friday, pressured by sharp double-digit soybean losses. A USDA flash sale to unknown destinations provided some support and limited downside.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended lower Friday as trade talks between President Trump and China’s Xi failed to yield progress.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended the week lower on Friday as spill over weakness from soybeans and a higher U.S. dollar weighed on prices.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Continued Opportunity: Sell one-third of the remaining December ‘25 420 corn puts today.

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • Recommendation to sell one-third of the remaining December ‘25 corn puts has been added. This means that 33% of the remaining position should be closed out, leaving 50% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures slid off early session highs to finish mixed to mostly lower with only the December contract posting a slight gain. December corn finished ¼ cent higher to 424, but 6 cents lower for the week. March slipped ¼ cent lower to 441 ¼.

  • The corn market traded higher on the session with the prospects of some trade resolution between the U.S. and China as President Trump and President Xi held a phone conversation. The market lost its strength as the realization that the current situation remained unchanged.

  • Harvest is advancing, with 7% complete as of last week’s progress report. Warm, dry conditions should aid fieldwork but are also keeping early harvest pressure on the market.

  • A stronger U.S. dollar, now higher for three straight sessions, added headwinds late in the week.

  • USDA announced a flash sale of corn on Friday morning. Unknown destinations purchased 206,640 MT of corn for the current marketing year. This was the third posted flash sale this week as corn export demand remains supportive.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower following a meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi that did not result in progress towards a trade deal. Prices bounced off support at the 50-day moving average. November soybeans lost 12 cents to $10.25-1/2 while March lost 10-3/4 to $10.60. October soybean meal lost $0.10 to $282.90 and October bean oil lost 0.54 cents to 50.03 cents.

  • Weakness stemmed largely from the lack of a U.S.-China trade deal. While Trump and Xi agreed on TikTok and discussed trade, no firm commitments were made. Trump said he will meet Xi again at a South Korea summit next month and plans to visit China early next year.

  • Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 7.53 mmt in the month of September which would compare to 7.43 mmt the previous month. Brazilian crush estimates have been raised by 0.7% to 58.5 mmt for 2025 according to ANEC.

  • For the week, November soybeans lost 20-3/4 cents while March lost 19-1/2 cents. October soybean meal lost $4.70 and October soybean oil lost 1.64 cents. While rains throughout the Corn Belt may stall harvest and be supportive, the lack of progress regarding a trade deal with China has pressured markets.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted losses in all three classes today, with December contracts of Chicago closing 1-3/4 cents lower to 522-1/2, Kansas City down 2-3/4 to 507-1/4, and MIAX losing 4-1/4 to 567-1/2. A lack of fresh friendly news and another move higher in the U.S. Dollar Index pressured wheat today. Wheat may have also been a follower of the sharp drop in soybean futures.

  • The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia has increased their wheat production estimate by 4.4% to 11.8 mmt for the 25/26 season. However, this is below the Australian Department of Agriculture’s forecast of 12.7 mmt earlier this month.

  • According to the Russian agriculture ministry, 114 mmt of grain has been harvested so far this season, with wheat accounting for 84 mmt of that total. Additionally, they have kept their total grain production forecast unchanged at 135 mmt.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has reported that 97.1% of Argentina’s 25/26 wheat crop is in normal to excellent condition. However, they also stated that certain regions are reporting disease issues due to excess moisture.

  • USDA’s latest drought monitor showed winter wheat acres in drought rose 6 points to 44%, still better than 56% a year ago. Recent rains across the central Plains should help improve soil conditions for newly seeded wheat.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 602.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 602.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 590 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 642 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

|

9-18 End of Day: Grain Futures Lower on Harvest Pressure and U.S. Dollar Strength

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: As corn harvest begins to ramp up, early harvest pressure is starting to weigh on the market, with corn ending the day lower.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day lower again, as the ongoing absence of a trade deal with China continues to weigh on the market and fuel concerns among traders.

  • 🌾 Wheat: The wheat market closed lower across all three classes today, pressured by a sharp rebound in the U.S. dollar and rising global production estimates.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • New Alert: Sell one-third of the remaining December ‘25 420 corn puts today.

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • Recommendation to sell one-third of the remaining December ‘25 corn puts has been added. This means that 33% of the remaining position should be closed out, leaving 50% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures trended lower on the session as the U.S. dollar recovered of recent lows, and early harvest pressure is weighing on basis and the cash market. December corn lost 3 cents to 423 ¾, and the March contract slipped 3 cents to 441 ½.

  • USDA released weekly export sales data on Thursday morning. For the week ending September 11, USDA reported new sales of 48.5 mb of corn for the marketing year. Mexico and South Korea were the top buyers of U.S. corn last week. Total export sales are up 98% over last year, and one of the best starts to the marketing year over the past 25 years.

  • The weekly drought monitor map continues to show the growth of drought across the Corn Belt. Acres of corn ground in drought rose to 25% this week, up from 13% last week. The dry conditions are expected to impact final yields as the crop was rushed to maturity.

  • Early harvest activity is putting pressure on the cash market and basis levels. As producers deliver early bushels, storage availability remains tight in some areas, and the cash market is beginning to reflect the impact of fresh supplies.

  • The U.S. dollar has rallied off recent lows in reaction to the Fed interest rate cut on Wednesday. The dollar sold off aggressively in preparation of the rate cut, but has since corrected, pressuring grain prices.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for a second consecutive day over concerns for a lack of a Chinese trade deal. November soybeans lost 6-1/4 cents to $10.37-1/2, while March lost 6-1/2 cents to $10.71-1/2. October soybean meal lost $0.90 to $283 and October soybean oil led the complex lower with a loss of 0.67 cents at 50.57 cents.

  • Today’s Export Sales report was middle of the road for soybeans with an increase of 33.9 million bushels for 25/26 and 0.1 mb for 26/27. Top buyers were to Egypt, Mexico, and Spain. China has not purchased U.S. soybeans since January 22. Last week’s export shipments of 30.8 mb were below the 32.1 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations.

  • Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 7.53 mmt in the month of September, which would compare to 7.43 mmt the previous month. Brazilian crush estimates have been raised by 0.7% to 58.5 mmt for 2025 according to ANEC.

  • The EPA on Tuesday issued a co-proposal to reallocate either 50% or 100% of small refinery exemptions for 2023–25, while also revising RVOs for 2026–27. A higher reallocation means more soybean oil demand for biofuels.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across the board today, pressured by a sharp rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index and weaker closes in both corn and soybean markets. Additionally, rising global production forecasts weighed on the wheat complex. The December contracts of Chicago and Kansas City lost 4 and 6-1/4 cents respectively, to 524-1/4 and 510.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 13.9 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26, along with an increase of 0.4 mb for 26/27. Shipments last week amounted to 28.5 mb, which was well above the 17.1 mb pace needed per week to reach their 900 mb export goal. Wheat sales commitments for 25/26 now total 481 mb, up 21% from last year.

  • The International Grains Council raised its forecast for 2025/26 global wheat production by 8 mmt, bringing the total to 819 mmt. The upward revision is attributed to larger production estimates for Canada, Australia, and Russia. For reference, the USDA is using a figure of 816.2 mmt. Additionally, global consumption is expected to total 819 mmt, which would keep stocks unchanged at 270 mmt.

  • Coceral, a European trade association, is estimating UK and EU combined soft wheat production at 147.4 mmt, an increase of 4.3 mmt from their July forecast.

  • According to Chinese customs data, their August imports of wheat and wheat flour totaled 230,000 mt. This is down 44.8% year over year. Meanwhile, year to date imports reached only 2.6 mmt, which is down 75.2% year over year.

  • A letter of intent, signed by U.S. Wheat Associates and the Taiwan Flour Miller’s Association, indicates that Taiwan has agreed to buy 3.6 mmt of U.S. wheat over the next three years. This would amount to about $1.3 billion in purchases between 2026 and 2029.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 602.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 602.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 590 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 642 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center