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7-31 End of Day: Soybeans Find Support from Higher Soybean Oil and Potential Profit Taking

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite a flash sale to unknown destinations, strong ethanol production numbers, and strength in crude oil, the corn market failed to gain upward traction and closed lower with September futures setting a new contract low close.

  • Month end profit taking, and a surge in crude oil futures likely triggered by the killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, helped give legs to the soybean oil market and in turn soybeans. Before rallying back to close higher on the day, September beans printed a fresh contract low. Soybean meal settled mostly lower, except for the August contract, which rallied on the lack of deliveries.

  • A sharply lower US Dollar, a rise in Middle East tensions, and higher Matif wheat prices all likely lent underlying support to the wheat complex. Though the three wheat classes closed mixed, all three settled off their respective lows, with the Chicago and KC contracts showing the most resiliency.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best early sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. As we move forward and consider the sales that have been recommended, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • September corn futures closed at new contract lows on Wednesday as the selling pressure continues. The corn market failed to find any true footing as technical selling pressured the market even with some positive demand news and a strong move higher in crude oil prices due to geopolitical issues in the Middle East.

  • The USDA announced a flash export sale this morning. Unknown destinations bought 4.1 mb (104,572 mt) for the 24/25 marketing year. While the export demand is needed, this was a small, routine sale that failed to move the market.

  • On Thursday morning, the USDA will release the weekly export sales report. Expectations are for new sales to total 275,000 – 600,000 mt for old crop and 400,000 – 800,000 mt for new crop. Current new crop demand has been disappointing, with current sales on the books running at multi-year lows for this time frame.

  • The USDA will release the August WASDE report on August 12, and they have announced that they will be looking at planted acre totals in this report. Talk in the market is a possible reduction of up to 1 million planted acres for corn. The possible decrease in acres could be outweighed by the market anticipating a potential better than trend yield for the current corn crop.

  • Weather forecasts look very friendly for crop production into the middle of August, as temperatures are expected to trend below normal into the middle of the month. With that, overall precipitation across the majority of the corn belt is expected to run above normal for the same time period.

Above: The downside breakout through 489 could suggest that prices have further downside risk towards the 362 – 360 support area. However, if prices hold and turn around, they could encounter nearby resistance between 395 and 400, with heavier resistance between 404 and 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Any remaining old crop 2023 soybeans should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 soybeans – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly higher after making new lows for the year earlier in the day. The trade was bear spread, with the front months only up slightly, while the November 2025 contract was up 7 cents. Today’s price action may have been due to funds taking profits on some of their short positions at the end of the month.

  • Soybean products were mixed today with soybean meal closing lower while soybean oil was higher. The support for soybean oil likely came from higher crude oil prices that increased as a response to Israel’s assassination of a top political leader for Hamas in Iran. This move could further escalate the war in the Middle East.

  • Brazilian consultancy Datagro, has estimated Brazil’s soybean acreage for 24/25 at 46.98 million hectares, or 116.09 million acres, which would be the 18th consecutive year that acreage was increased in the country if this is realized. Brazilian soybean production for 24/25 is estimated at 166.6 mmt which would be a 12% increase year over year.

  • US weather is expected to be hotter than normal over the next 6 to 10 days across the southern and western areas of the country with rainfall amounts generally above normal. The 8 to 14-day forecast shows temperatures cooling off, while rainfall is expected to remain mostly above normal over the entire Midwest. As long as forecasts remain mostly favorable, funds will likely continue to be sellers.

Above: The break to, and subsequent rally from, the 1008 level in September soybeans suggests an area of support just below the market. Should prices rally further they may encounter resistance around 1082 ¼, a close above which could put them on track towards the 1130 – 1170 congestion area. If prices break lower and close below 1008, they could be at risk of trading down to 1000 and then 985.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex had a mixed close: Chicago ended the session with small gains, while Kansas City and Minneapolis were mixed to lower. Chicago’s strength followed a weak start, likely supported by a sharply lower US Dollar Index and a strong close for Matif wheat after early weakness.

  • The killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders has increased tensions in the Middle East, contributing to crude oil’s sharp rally today. This, along with higher equity markets, may offer some spillover support to the grains.

  • Favorable Australian weather may result in a boost to their wheat crop. Some estimates are now as high as 30 mmt, which compares to the USDA’s current estimate of 29 mmt. For reference, last year’s crop totaled 26 mmt.

  • The French wheat crop is reportedly set for a “catastrophic” harvest, with estimates of production declines ranging from 15% to 28%. This could result in a crop as small as 26 mmt, prompting French farmers to seek financial aid from the government. The loss of income is estimated to exceed 1.6 billion euros, or about $1.7 billion USD.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After encountering resistance near 630, the market reversed lower and could be on track toward the July low near 575, where it could find support. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-30 End of Day: Prospects of Large Corn and Soybean Crops Keep Sellers Engaged

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Better than expected corn crop ratings, and a less threatening forecast kept the sellers active in the corn market today and helped press the September contract to a new contract low heading into the close.

  • Although soybean’s good to excellent ratings dropped 1% point, they remain the highest ratings since 2020, keeping the prospect of a large crop high, and market sellers engaged. Soybean meal kept pace with the decline in soybeans, while bean oil settled mixed.

  • Weakness in corn and soybeans also carried over to the wheat complex which settled lower across all three wheat classes, with the steady decline in Paris milling wheat futures adding to the negativity.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  Considering the current growing season often provides some of the best pricing opportunities for next year’s crop and given that the current heavy supply/demand picture could carry over and create upside resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, which allows the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Triggered by better-than-expected crop ratings and improved weather forecast, sellers stayed active in the corn and grain markets on Tuesday. As prices broke going into today’s close, September corn futures posted a new contract low.

  • The USDA released the next round of crop ratings on Monday afternoon. The US corn crop is rated at 68% good to excellent, up 1% from last week and 2% above expectations. Improvement was seen in the Corn Belt across all major corn producing states. These are the highest rating since 2020 and have analyst forecasting an above trendline yield potential corn crop this fall.

  • Adding to the selling pressure in the corn market were improved weather forecasts. The forecasted heat for the Midwest was shifted more to the west, and rainfall potential was increased in the forecast for the Corn Belt for early August. After next week, temperatures are expected to moderate, and trend below normal into the middle of the month.

  • Despite already holding a large net short position in the corn market, managed funds are adding to that position, as the momentum and technical picture favor sellers in the market.

  • Demand concerns still weigh heavily on the corn market. Current new crop corn export sales are paced as one of the softer starts in the last decade for this time frame. With the potential supply picture looking heavier, the key to supporting prices will be triggering some demand to work through that supply.

Above: The corn market continues to consolidate as it corrects from being oversold. If prices break out above the 404 – 415 resistance area, they could run toward 425 – 430. To the downside, a break below 389 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Any remaining old crop 2023 soybeans should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 soybeans – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the third consecutive day as good weather conditions continue to encourage funds to steadily sell grains. While soybeans and its products have been steadily slipping lower, soybeans have fallen by a larger percentage which has improved processor margins. Today, soybean meal closed lower while soybean oil settled mixed with the September and October contracts higher and the December contract lower.

  • Yesterday, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed the good to excellent rating in soybeans falling by one point to 67%. 77% of the crop was blooming which compares to 65% last week and the 5-year average of 74%. 44% of the crop was setting pods versus 29% last week and the average of 40%. The central and eastern Corn Belt typically saw conditions improve while the western Corn Belt saw declines in ratings.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 22,091 soybean contracts as of July 23 which left them net short 163,659 contracts. Since then, it is estimated that funds have sold an additional 25,500 contracts in just the past two trading days.

  • Last week, a sale of 264,000 mt and another of 510,000 mt of soybeans were reported to unknown destinations for the new crop marketing year. There is a good chance that those soybeans were bought by China as the recent selloff has put US beans between an 18- and 22-dollar discount out of the Gulf when compared to FOB beans in Brazil.

Above: The break to, and subsequent rally from, the 1008 level in September soybeans suggests an area of support just below the market. Should prices rally further they may encounter resistance around 1082 ¼, a close above which could put them on track towards the 1130 – 1170 congestion area. If prices break lower and close below 1008, they could be at risk of trading down to 1000 and then 985.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat futures classes posted losses alongside corn and soybeans. After two-sided trading, September Paris milling wheat futures also closed lower for the sixth consecutive session.

  • According to yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, the winter wheat harvest advanced 6% to 82% complete, which is above last year’s pace of 77% complete and the 82% five-year average. Additionally, spring wheat conditions declined 3% to 74% good to excellent. While this drop was more than expected, it remains the highest rating since 2018. Furthermore, that crop is 96% headed (in line with average) and is 1% harvested compared to a 3% average.

  • Freezing conditions threaten Argentina’s main wheat-growing regions. According to the Rosario Grains Exchange, the 24/25 crop is already suffering from drought, prompting a reduction in the planted area estimate by 2.9% to 6.7 million hectares. Now, temperatures of negative four degrees Celsius are expected in the northern Buenos Aires province, and the cold, dry weather has caused crop death.

  • Ukraine’s Agrarian Policy and Food Minister, Taras Vysotsky, has reported that domestic wheat consumption has dropped from 8 mmt to just over 6 mmt per year. Additionally, Ukraine is expected to produce 21 mmt of wheat in 2024, with 15 mmt designated for export.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 indicates support below the market between 546 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 540 could find further support near 530.

Above: Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After encountering resistance near 630, the market reversed lower and could be on track toward the July low near 575, where it could find support. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-29 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Recover Earlier Losses to Close Higher on the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • December corn held early support near 405 as positive money flowed into the corn market and traders cover short positions ahead of month end and Tuesday’s position reporting for the Commitment of Traders report.

  • Though the soybean staged a decent recovery from the day’s lows it failed to catch a bid like neighboring corn and wheat, as it was likely pressured by less threatening weather and prospects of supplies coming to market in the near term. And while soybean meal saw bull spreading action on decent demand, a court ruling rejecting EPA denials of small refinery blending waiver requests, weighed on the front end of the soybean oil market.

  • After posting fresh lows in the September contracts of both Chicago and KC, the wheat complex staged a technical recovery from becoming oversold and closed higher in all three classes as traders began to square positions in preparation for the month end.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  Considering the current growing season often provides some of the best pricing opportunities for next year’s crop and given that the current heavy supply/demand picture could carry over and create upside resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, which allows the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Despite a difficult start to the day, corn futures found enough buying strength to finish mostly higher on Monday. The December corn market remains in the overall sideways pattern that it has been in since early July, holding the bottom of the range at 405 today, with 420 at the top end. 

  • Money flow may have been the reason for the afternoon strength as funds saw support levels hold and exited short positions before the end of the month, and Tuesday afternoon’s position reporting for the Commitment of Traders report.

  • Managed money funds decreased their net short position in corn on last week’s Commitment of Traders report. As of Tuesday, July 23, hedge funds exited 24,847 net short contracts to hold a net short position of 318,549 contracts, reflecting the overall bearish tone of the market.

  • The soybean and corn markets saw selling pressure to start the session as weather forecasts became more crop friendly. The forecasted heat for the Midwest was shifted more to the west, and rainfall potential was increased in the forecast for the corn belt for early August.

  • The USDA released weekly corn export inspections on Monday morning.  Corn inspected for export as of July 25 totaled 41.7 mb and was above market expectations. Year-to-date, corn inspections total 1.837 billion bushels. This total is up 34% from last year and in line with the USDA forecast.

Above: The corn market continues to consolidate as it corrects from being oversold. If prices break out above the 404 – 415 resistance area, they could run toward 425 – 430. To the downside, a break below 389 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 23. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 24,847 contracts between July 16 – 23, bringing their total position to a net short 318,549 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Any remaining old crop 2023 soybeans should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 soybeans – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower but came back significantly from their lows earlier in the day, which saw the September contract down over 40 cents at one point before recovering. September beans also made new contract lows and posted a new contract low close. Soybean meal was bull spread with the two front months higher but deferred contracts lower while soybean oil was bear spread with front months lower but deferred months higher.

  • Today’s price action was very volatile, and the early pressure was likely due to weather forecasts which showed temperatures slightly lower than earlier predictions. The price action in the later part of the day could have been due to managed funds taking profits on their near record large short position ahead of month end.

  • While the slide in soybean prices has been discouraging, a silver lining is that US Gulf new crop offers have become cheaper than Brazilian FOB offers by a significant amount which could cause exports to start ramping up. China has been a buyer of new crop US soybeans last week and hopefully will continue these purchases.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans as of July 23. They bought back 22,091 contracts which reduced their net short position to 163,659 contracts. On Friday, funds were estimated to have sold 18,500 contracts of soybeans.

Above: The break to, and subsequent rally from, the 1008 in September soybeans suggests an area of significant support just below the market. Should prices rally further they may encounter resistance around 1082 ¼, a close above which could put them on track towards the 1130 – 1170 congestion area. If prices break lower and close below 1008, they could be at risk of trading down to 1000 and then 985.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 23. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 22,091 contracts between July 16 – 23, bringing their total position to a net short 163,659 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with gains today across all three classes, despite last week’s spring wheat tour in North Dakota finding record yields, a lower close for Matif wheat futures, and a higher US Dollar Index. Today’s rally may be attributed to a technical recovery, as both SRW and HRW contracts had made new lows and were becoming oversold again.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections at 16 mb bring total inspections to 112 mb which is up 11% from last year. This week’s inspections were on the higher side of what was expected but in line with what is needed to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb.

  • According to IKAR, Russia’s wheat export price ended last week at $220 per mt, which was up $1 from the week prior. Additionally, SovEcon said that last week Russian grain exports hit 1 mmt, versus 710,000 mt the previous week. Of that total, wheat accounted for 760,000 mt.

  • Kazakhstan, according to Interfax, has extended their ban on wheat imports through the remainder of 2024, reportedly in an effort to stabilize the market after illegal imports caused domestic prices to decline sharply.

  • Friday’s CFTC data indicated that managed funds, as of July 23, decreased their net short position in both Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures. The former saw a drop of just 0.9% to 75,184 contracts, while the latter was reduced by 6.9% to 40,866 contracts.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 620 – 640 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 23. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 702 contracts between July 16 – 23, bringing their total position to a net short 75,184 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 indicates support below the market between 546 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 540 could find further support near 530.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 23. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,030 contracts between July 16 – 23, bringing their total position to a net short 40,866 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After encountering resistance near 630, the market reversed lower and could be on track toward the July low near 575, where it could find support. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 23. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 497 contracts between July 16 – 23, bringing their total position to a net short 25,858 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-26 End of Day: Sellers Come Out in Force to Press Markets Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market came under pressure heading into the weekend as sellers focused on technical weakness, an improved weather outlook, and long range demand concerns. The most actively traded December contract closed with modest gains for the week despite the heavy selling today.

  • Heavy selling in soybean oil, likely triggered as key support was broken, and a less threatening weather forecast weighed heavily on the soybean market, which pushed the August contract to fresh contract lows before closing just a ½ cent above its lowest close from last week. Solid demand for soybean meal helped keep the August and September meal contracts in the green, while the deferred contracts settled lower.

  • All three wheat classes closed in the red along with neighboring corn and soybeans. Record yield expectations from the North Dakota spring wheat tour added to the negativity as the wheat market anticipates its largest crop in eight years.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 8-14 day weather hazards outlook, showing excessive heat and potential drought risk, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  Considering the current growing season often provides some of the best pricing opportunities for next year’s crop and given that the current heavy supply/demand picture could carry over and create upside resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, which allows the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A combination of factors brought the sellers to the corn market on Friday to end the week.  Corn futures were sharply lower as the grain markets were impacted by options expiration, weather forecasts, technical selling, and longer-term demand concerns. December corn finished the week 5 ¼ cents higher despite the strong selling pressure on Friday.

  • August corn options expired on Friday. The August options are tied to the September futures prices, and the market can move to areas of large open interest. Prices seemed to move to close out open August corn options at the 495 strike in the market on Friday.

  • Recent weather models are staying above normal temperatures, but some of those longer-range models have moderated and increased chances of precipitation across the central and eastern Corn Belt going into August. The more friendly forecast likely triggered some weather premium leaving the market.

  • Thursday, new crop corn export sales were firm according to expectations at 29.3 mb, the current total for new crop corn sales on the books is disappointing. Currently, new crop sales total 4.87 mmt, which is in line with last year, but total sales are one of the weakest totals for this time of year in the past 10 years.  

  • December corn was challenging key resistance at the 420 level most of the week. As that level held, sellers took control of the market to end the week. In September corn, the ease that prices broke the 400 barrier triggered technical selling in the market. Price follow-through next week will be key if this establishes a new trend in the corn market.

Above: The corn market continues to consolidate as it corrects from being oversold. If prices break out above the 404 – 415 resistance area, they could run toward 425 – 430. To the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Any remaining old crop 2023 soybeans should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 soybeans – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower and gave back a large portion of the gains that they had accumulated earlier this week. The 20-day moving average has been strong resistance for November soybeans consistently since Tuesday, and today prices finally broke to the downside after failing again at the 20-day. Soybean oil dragged prices lower with the September contract losing 4.82%, and soybean meal was mixed with the front months higher and deferred contracts lower.

  • For the week, August soybeans lost 19 ¾ cents at 1077 ½ while November soybeans gained 12 ½ cents at 1048 ½. At one point, November futures were up nearly 51 cents on the week. August soybean meal gained $16.50 for the week at $353.30 and August soybean oil lost 2.90 cents at 43.66 cents

  • Weather was likely a factor in today’s move lower as forecasts which had previously shown temperatures reaching the 100s over the next week have come down to the 90s. Additionally, better chances of rain have been added to the forecast which will be crucial for pod fill heading into August.

  • In soybeans, funds are estimated to have bought back 21,500 contracts over the previous 5 sessions after they reached a new record net short position previously. Funds likely took the opportunity to sell the rally from the past few days and added more back to their short position today.

Above: September soybeans appear to have found initial support just below the market around 1054. Should this area hold, and prices close above 1082 ¼, they could run toward 1130 – 1170 congestion area, though they may encounter resistance near 1100. A break below 1054 could put the market at risk of retreating toward the July low of 1030 ¼, where further support may be found.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The grain complex took a hit today, and wheat was no exception, as all three wheat categories closed with double-digit losses, mirroring declines in corn and soybeans. It appears the rally earlier in the week has lost momentum, and the wheat market, in particular, is facing pressure due to expectations of the largest US crop in eight years, which doesn’t favor significant price recovery.

  • The North Dakota spring wheat tour ended with a final yield estimate of 54.5 bpa, a new record since the tour began in 1994, and compares with just 47.4 bpa last year. The USDA’s estimate is actually higher, projecting a 56 bpa yield, which would beat the 50 bpa record from 2022.

  • The condition of the French wheat crop fell another 2%, leaving only 50% rated as good to excellent, the lowest rating since 2016. Currently, 41% of the crop has been harvested, significantly behind last year’s pace of 76% at this time. According to some private estimates, the French wheat crop could decline to 25-27 mmt, down from early season estimates of up to 34 mmt.

  • SovEcon raised their estimate of Russia’s wheat production by 0.5 mmt to 84.7 mmt. The Black Sea region continues to be warm and dry, particularly in eastern Ukraine and southwest Russia, which could affect their spring wheat crops. Additionally, there are some scattered showers forecasted, but more widespread rains are needed.

  • In their weekly release, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that Argentina’s wheat planting is now 98.5% complete, up from 95% the week prior. The planted acreage estimate remains unchanged at 6.3 million hectares, compared to 5.9 million last year.

  • The European Commission is now estimating that total grain production in the EU will fall to 271.6 mmt versus the June estimate of 274.7 mmt. Soft wheat production, in particular, is projected at 120.8 mmt for 24/25, down from 121.9 mmt previously.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 620 – 640 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The consolidation of the Chicago wheat market shows support below the market around just above the March 523 ½ low. Should the market continue higher, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600. While a close below 523 ½ could suggest a lower trend towards 500 psychological support, with further support in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After hitting upside resistance around 580, KC wheat appears to be on track to retest the 546 support from July 16. Should that area hold with a close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a break below 545 could find further support in the 530 area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After encountering resistance near 630, the market reversed lower and could be on track toward the July low near 575, where it could find support. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-25 End of Day: Corn and Beans Hold Their Gains, as Wheat Breaks

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market closed higher for the fourth consecutive day with support from new crop sales that came in at the top of expectations and carry over strength from neighboring soybeans, as traders continue to cover short positions.

  • While soybean export sales fell within expectations, a flash sale for new crop soybeans to unknown destinations and soybean meal sales that exceeded expectations, helped propel new crop soybeans to double-digit gains. Soybean meal settled sharply higher across the board, while soybean oil closed mixed.

  • The wheat complex experienced a down day across all three futures markets, pressured lower by continued losses in Matif wheat, and a second day of exceptional yield reports from the Spring Wheat Quality Council’s tour.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6-10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the updated Drought Monitor courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and the NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  Considering the current growing season often provides some of the best pricing opportunities for next year’s crop and given that the current heavy supply/demand picture could carry over and create upside resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, which allows the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • After trading on both sides of unchanged in the overnight session, the corn market gained some footing with solid new crop export sales and carry over support from the soybean market to close in the green for the fourth day in a row.

  • This week’s export sales for corn showed an increase of 13.0 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 29.3 mb for 24/25. While old crop sales were down 24% on the week and at the low end of trade expectations, new crop sales came in at the top end of expectations and lent support to the deferred contracts.

  • Last week’s export shipments of 47.6 mb exceeded the 42.2 million bushels needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates. The primary destinations were Mexico, South Korea, and Japan.

  • LSEG Ag Research updated its estimate of Brazil’s 23/24 total corn production as the safrinha corn harvest begins to wrap up, raising it 1% to 120.1 mmt. This compares to CONAB at 115.9 mmt and the USDA’s latest estimate of 122 mmt.

  • As we enter the end of July, weather forecasts are turning less friendly for crop development for the first part of August as temperatures look to trend well above average, with near term above normal moisture in the ECB turning drier, along with below normal moisture in the WCB. While most of the corn crop is in overall good condition, weather will still play a key role in finishing the crop into harvest.

Above: The corn market continues to consolidate as it corrects from being oversold. If prices break out above the 404 – 415 resistance area, they could run toward 425 – 430. To the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Any remaining old crop 2023 soybeans should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 soybeans – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the third time this week with November futures now up 43 ½ cents since Monday. Today’s Export Sales report was not particularly friendly, but a flash sale was reported this morning to unknown destinations. Soybean meal led the complex higher today with the September contract up 2.48%. Soybean oil was mixed with the front months lower and deferred months higher.

  • Today’s export sales report saw an increase of 3.3 mb of soybean export sales in 23/24 and an increase of 30.5 mb for 24/25. This was within the range of estimates, but sales for 23/24 were down 61% from the previous week and 63% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments of 13.5 mb were below the 15.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimate, and primary destinations were to the Netherlands, Mexico, and Indonesia.

  • While soybean sales were on the softer side this week, sales of soybean meal were very strong which explains today’s big gains in meal futures. 258,100 mt of old crop meal and 520,900 mt of new crop meal were sold last week with the Philippines showing up as the largest buyer of old crop while the new crop purchases were made by unknown buyers.

  • The weather has been beneficial up until this point, but forecasts are turning dry and very hot heading into August which will be crucial for pod fill. Little impact is expected this week, but the GFS model shows temperatures potentially reaching as high as 113 degrees in some parts of the Midwest.

Above: September soybeans appear to have found initial support just below the market around 1054. Should this area hold, and prices close above 1082 ¼, they could run toward 1130 – 1170 congestion area, though they may encounter resistance near 1100. A break below 1054 could put the market at risk of retreating toward the July low of 1030 ¼, where further support may be found.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across all three categories, led by Chicago futures. Continued losses in Paris milling wheat futures provided no support, and US wheat struggled to find footing despite higher corn and soybean prices.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 11.4 mb in wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 10 mb fell below the 16.0 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 825 mb. Sales commitments so far are at 295 mb for 24/25 which is up 48% year on year.

  • Day two of the Spring Wheat Quality Council’s wheat tour again found promising conditions. In north central North Dakota, they found a yield potential of 53.7 bpa, compared with 45.7 bpa last year. However, it was noted that some head blight was present which could affect final yields.

  • According to the USDA, drought is increasing in spring wheat areas. As of July 23, 15% of US spring wheat crop acres were experiencing drought, compared to 12% the week prior. The heat and dryness in parts of Canada and the US northern Plains could affect final spring wheat yields.

  • As reported by the International Grains Council, FOB export values increased in the US and Europe but fell in Russia to $219 per mt, which keeps Russia the export leader for now. It is worth noting that US SRW wheat has become more competitive and is at a $21 per mt discount when compared with French FOB offers.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 620 – 640 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The consolidation of the Chicago wheat market shows support below the market around just above the March 523 ½ low. Should the market continue higher, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600. While a close below 523 ½ could suggest a lower trend towards 500 psychological support, with further support in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After finding support just below 550, KC wheat prices could continue higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. A reversal lower, and a break below 545 could find further support in the 530 area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since our last sales recommendation for the 2025 spring wheat crop, September ’25 Minneapolis wheat has rallied about 30 cents off its recent low and reached our upside target as it approaches the congestion and resistance area from early July. Considering this time of year can provide some of the best opportunities to get early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally to sell another portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After encountering resistance near 630, the market reversed lower and could be on track toward the July low near 575, where it should find support. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-24 End of Day: Markets Hit Overhead Resistance and Close Off Their Highs

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite a strong start to the session and solid ethanol production numbers, the corn market settled mid-range and marginally higher after hitting overhead resistance in the area of the September and December 20-day moving averages for the second day in a row.

  • After trading higher early on, sellers came out in force in the soybean market after it hit resistance at the 20-day moving average for the second consecutive day. Sharply lower soybean oil, driven by lower palm oil, weighed heavily on soybeans, while soybean meal managed to close with marginal gains.

  • The wheat complex closed the day mixed with Chicago and KC in the green, while Minneapolis settled in the red. While lower outside markets limited wheat’s rally potential, Minneapolis contracts were likely pressed lower on the exceptional yield potential found on the first day of the spring wheat tour.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  Considering the current growing season often provides some of the best pricing opportunities for next year’s crop and given that the current heavy supply/demand picture could carry over and create upside resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, which allows the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market experienced follow through buying early in the session as traders sought to add weather premium on the warmer and drier extended forecast, but prices once again encountered overhead resistance around the 20-day moving average and sold off into the close. Selling pressure in neighboring soybeans also likely contributed to the soft tone.

  • Weekly ethanol production dropped to 1.095 million barrels per day last week, down from 1.106 mil. barrels per day the week prior but came in above expectations and the third highest for this marketing year. 109.7 million bushels of corn were used in last week’s production, which was above the pace needed to reach the USDA’s projections.

  • With Brazil’s second corn crop nearly harvested, their corn exports have begun to ramp up. According to Anec, the country’s corn exports for the month of July are expected to reach 4.56 mmt, a slight increase from last week’s projection of 4.51 mmt. That said, US export values out of the Gulf remain between $6 and $8 per mt below Brazil offers, which should help US corn sales.

  • Due to the hot and dry conditions in the Black Sea region, SovEcon lowered their forecast for Russia’s corn production 8% to 13.4 mmt from 14.6 mmt in June. On a related note, it’s been reported that Ukraine’s 24/25 grain exports through July 24th are up 67% from last year to 2.78 mmt, 1.39 mmt of which is corn.

  • Weather forecasts going into the end of July are turning less friendly for crop development in the first part of August as temperatures could trend well above average, with above normal moisture in the ECB to below normal moisture in the WCB. While most of the corn crop is in good condition, in some areas, weather will still play a key role in finishing the crop into harvest.

Above: The corn market continues to consolidate as it corrects from being oversold. If prices break out above the 404 – 415 resistance area, they could run toward 425 – 430. To the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • After higher closes on Monday and Tuesday, soybeans ended the day lower. Despite higher trade this morning, futures traded lower into the end of the day after being rebuffed at their 20-day moving average, much like yesterday. Soybean meal ended the day slightly higher, while soybean oil was pulled down by palm oil.

  • The weather has been very beneficial up until this point, but forecasts are turning dry and very hot heading into August which will be crucial for pod fill. Little impact is expected this week, but the GFS model shows temperatures potentially reaching as high as 113 degrees in some parts of the Midwest.

  • Despite slow US soybean exports this year, with Brazil capturing 87% of China’s soybean imports, US soybeans are becoming more competitive. Expectations are rising that China will increase its purchases of US soybeans.

  • Last Friday’s CFTC report revealed that funds held a record net short position in soybeans. However, this has likely changed due to this week’s rally, as funds probably covered some of that short position with dry weather in the forecast.

Above: The large gap on the continuous chart represents the roll from the August soybean contract to the September, where the 50-cent premium in the August contract relative to the September contract is no longer represented. That said, support for the September contract on a break below 1030 may come in near the 1000 psychological level with further support around 985. Overhead, a turnaround toward higher prices may encounter resistance between 1065 – 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a two-sided trade, Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures closed with small gains, while Minneapolis futures posted modest losses. The strength of the grain rally that started this week is fading, likely due to it being primarily a technical bounce. Additionally, Matif wheat’s inability to hold onto gains today added weakness to the US market.

  • Outside markets may be influencing commodity prices. At the time of writing, the Dow is down over 400 points, the NASDAQ down over 650 points, and the S&P 500 down over 100 points. This broad-based selloff could be tied to uncertainty surrounding the US economy, especially given the recent news that President Biden has stepped out of the race.

  • The first day of the US spring wheat crop tour found a yield in North Dakota of 52.5 bpa; this is higher than last year’s 48.1 bpa and the average of 42.2 bpa. In fact, this is the highest first day yield found since the tour began in 1994, and certainly added pressure on Minneapolis futures today.

  • European Union soft wheat exports, according to the European Commission, have fallen 35% year over year. Since the season began on July 1, exports totaled 1.44 mmt as of July 21, versus 2.21 mmt at the same time last year. Leading importers of this wheat include Nigeria, Egypt, and Morocco.

  • According to their agriculture ministry, the export duty on Russian wheat has been reduced by 13.5% to 1,540.4 rubles per mt as of July 24. This is down from 1,780.5 Rubles previously. For corn and barley, the duties remain at zero.

  • Chinese officials said on Wednesday that their nation had the largest grain production increase this summer in nine years. A plentiful wheat harvest is cited as the driver of the increase. Reportedly, 23 million hectares of wheat were harvested, and yields were said to be up by 2.6% year over year. 

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 620 – 640 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The consolidation of the Chicago wheat market shows support below the market around just above the March 523 ½ low. Should the market continue higher, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600. While a close below 523 ½ could suggest a lower trend towards 500 psychological support, with further support in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After finding support just below 550, KC wheat prices could continue higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. A reversal lower, and a break below 545 could find further support in the 530 area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since our last sales recommendation for the 2025 spring wheat crop, September ’25 Minneapolis wheat has rallied about 30 cents off its recent low and reached our upside target as it approaches the congestion and resistance area from early July. Considering this time of year can provide some of the best opportunities to get early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally to sell another portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish key reversal posted on July 17 indicates that support lies just below the market around 575, and prices could run toward the July highs near 636. If the market turns and closes below 575, prices could drift lower toward the 550 – 540 support area.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-23 End of Day: Corn and Beans Close Firm; Wheat Reverses to Close Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Follow through strength and short covering pushed the corn market to 420 resistance in the December contract before sliding off session highs from carryover weakness from the wheat markets.

  • While soybeans carried positive momentum from Monday’s trade and closed higher for the second day in a row, they closed off their highs as upward resistance was met near the 20-day moving average in the leading contracts. Bear spreading in soybean oil, and lower trade in meal also limited the rally potential for the soybean market.

  • The wheat complex closed lower across all three futures markets, as lower Matif wheat futures and weakening Russian export prices continue to limit upside potential. Increased production estimates for Russian and Australian wheat crops also potentially contributed to the day’s negative performance.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 corn crop.  Considering the current growing season often provides some of the best pricing opportunities for next year’s crop and given that the current heavy supply/demand picture could carry over and create upside resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, which allows the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw some follow-through buying strength and short covering from yesterday. Futures rallied higher for most of the session, but resistance at 420 on the December chart held, and late softness in the wheat market allowed corn futures to slide off session highs. The direction of trade on Wednesday may be key for the end of the week.

  • This morning the USDA announced a flash sale of corn totaling 200,000 mt (7.9 mb) for the 24/25 marketing year. This is the second consecutive day with a posted flash sale. On Monday, Mexico bought 5.2 mb of new crop corn.

  • On Monday afternoon’s Crop Conditions report, the USDA reported that the corn crop’s condition was 67% good to excellent, down 1% from last week and below market expectations. Within the numbers, the key corn producing states of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana saw crop ratings improve by 1-2% over last week. The overall strong crop rating keeps thoughts of an above average trendline yield in focus for this fall.

  • Weather forecasts going into the end of July are turning less friendly for crop development in the first part of August as temperatures trend warmer than average, with normal to below normal moisture. While most of the corn crop is in good condition, in some areas, weather will still play a key role in finishing the crop into harvest.

Above: The corn market continues to consolidate as it corrects from being oversold. If prices break out above the 404 – 415 resistance area, they could run toward 425 – 430. To the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher for the second consecutive day as buying momentum continued, but prices did retreat from midday highs as they were met by resistance at the 20-day moving average. After last week’s selloff, this week’s higher prices may also be encouraging some farmer selling. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was bear spread with front months ending lower and deferred contracts higher.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the good to excellent rating for soybeans staying stable at 68%, but as in corn, there were improvements in the heart of the Corn Belt while conditions slipped on the fringes. 29% of the soybean crop is setting pods which compares to 18% last week and 65% is blooming which compares to 51% last week.

  • The 6–10-day forecast shows temperatures above normal while precipitation looks to be above average as well for the central and eastern Corn Belt. The extended forecast is drier for the majority of the Corn Belt which should be supportive going into pod fill.

  • Yesterday’s Export Inspections report showed 12.0 mb of soybeans inspected as of July 18 which brought total inspections for 23/24 to 1.556 bb which was within trade expectations but is down 16% from the previous year. Cheaper prices may be helping US soybeans be more competitive globally.

Above: The large gap on the continuous chart represents the roll from the August soybean contract to the September, where the 50-cent premium in the August contract relative to the September contract is no longer represented. That said, support for the September contract on a break below 1030 may come in near the 1000 psychological level with further support around 985. Overhead, a turnaround toward higher prices may encounter resistance between 1065 – 1075.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across the board after a positive start to the session, and a lower close for Matif wheat provided no support. The recent rally over the past couple of sessions may have been primarily technical in nature, indicating that fundamentals might not support significant upward price movement.

  • According to the USDA, winter wheat is 76% harvested as of July 21, up from 71% a week ago. This compares with 65% last year and 72% on average. The spring wheat crop was rated 77% good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week, but still well above the 49% rating from a year ago. Additionally, 89% of spring wheat is headed compared to 92% last year and 90% average.

  • SovEcon this morning increased their estimate of Russia’s grain production by 3 mmt to 130.5 mmt, but wheat production was only increased 0.1 mmt to 84.3 mmt, just above the USDA’s 83 mmt figure. Russia also continues to be dominant on wheat exports, with their latest FOB values said to be around $218 to $200 per mt.

  • Agriculture and Agri-Foods Canada projected Canadian 24/25 all wheat production at 35.43 mmt, which compares with 31.95 mmt the year prior. The USDA currently estimates the Canadian crop at 35 mmt. However, the warmer and drier conditions affecting wheat growing regions of Canada may warrant reductions to those estimates down the road.

  • Following a couple of weeks of good rainfall, western Australia may see higher grain production. According to the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia, wheat, barley, and canola crops could be boosted by as much as 10%, reaching 18 mmt if current weather patterns continue. This new estimate compares with the previous estimate of 16.3 mmt. Wheat, in particular, is expected to see a 12.3% increase from the previous estimate, rising to 10.5 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 620 – 640 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The consolidation of the Chicago wheat market shows support below the market around just above the March 523 ½ low. Should the market continue higher, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600. While a close below 523 ½ could suggest a lower trend towards 500 psychological support, with further support in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After finding support just below 550, KC wheat prices could continue higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. A reversal lower, and a break below 545 could find further support in the 530 area.

Above: Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since our last sales recommendation for the 2025 spring wheat crop, September ’25 Minneapolis wheat has rallied about 30 cents off its recent low and reached our upside target as it approaches the congestion and resistance area from early July. Considering this time of year can provide some of the best opportunities to get early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally to sell another portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish key reversal posted on July 17 indicates that support lies just below the market around 575, and given that the market is oversold, prices could run toward the July highs near 636. Below 575, support should remain in the 550 – 540 area.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-22 End of Day: Grain Markets Start the Week Off Strong

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carry over strength from neighboring soybeans triggered a round of short covering to begin the week following Friday’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report that showed managed funds still hold a near record net short position.

  • New crop contracts led soybeans higher with support from sharply higher soybean meal and oil. A warmer and drier near-term forecast likely triggered short covering from managed funds, which according to Friday’s COT report, hold a record net short soybean position.

  • Following a day of two sided trade, all three wheat classes settled in the green. Support came from potential crop concerns in the dry areas of Canada and the US northern Plains, and quality concerns for the French and German wheat crop.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Considering we are at the time of year to get early sales made for next year’s crop, we recently issued our first sales recommendation for the 2025 corn crop. Given that the growing season has potential for high volatility and can provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year, we will also be watching the calendar along with price action. If our current Plan A upside objective in the 490 – 510 range isn’t met by our Plan B sales deadline of July 23, we will likely make another sales recommendation at that time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong buying entered the corn market to start the week as spill over strength from the soybean market triggered a short covering rally in an oversold market. Despite the strength, December corn remains in the sideways range of 405 – 415 that it has been trading in since July 8.

  • On Friday’s Commitment of Traders report, managed hedge funds slightly reduced their record net short position in corn. Last week funds were net buyers of 10,587 corn contracts, but still hold a sizeable net short position of 343,396 contracts.

  • The USDA will release the next round of crop ratings on Monday afternoon. Expectations are for corn ratings to remain steady to slightly higher over last week’s numbers. Last week, corn was rated 65% good/excellent, which was trending 11% higher than last year.

  • The key second crop (safrinha) corn harvest in Brazil is progressing quickly. Brazil Ag analyst, AgRural, stated that 83% of the second crop corn was harvested, up from 74% last week. Last year, only 47% of the crop was harvested in this time window. Brazil’s second crop corn is approximately 75% of their  corn production

  • Weather forecasts going into the end of July are turning less friendly for crop development going into the first part of August as temperatures are trending warmer than average, and moisture in normal to below normal. While most of the corn crop is in good condition, weather will still play a key role in finishing the crop into harvest.

Above: The corn market continues to consolidate as it corrects from being oversold. If prices break out above the 404 – 415 resistance area, they could run toward 425 – 430. To the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 16. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 10,587 contracts between July 9 – 16, bringing their total position to a net short 343,396 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher, quickly erasing last week’s losses. While funds hold a record net short position in soybeans, the forecasts predicting short-term dry weather likely triggered today’s short covering rally. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher as well.

  • Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress report and expectations are that good to excellent ratings will increase for soybeans by 1% from last week. The upcoming hot and dry weather could pose a challenge later this week, but conditions have been relatively good so far this season.

  • Both soybean meal and oil closed higher today with meal leading the way up, with the strong close in both products adding to already impressive crush margins. These margins have improved significantly which has spurred domestic demand as processors scoop up cheap cash soybeans. This has also propped up nearby soybean prices relative to new crop months.

  • According to Friday’s CFTC report, funds added to their short position in soybeans as of July 16. They sold 13,145 contracts, increasing their net short position to a record 185,750 contracts.

Above: The large gap on the continuous chart represents the roll from the August soybean contract to the September, where the 50-cent premium in the August contract relative to the September contract is no longer represented. That said, support for the September contract on a break below 1030 may come in near the 1000 psychological level with further support around 985. Overhead, a turnaround toward higher prices may encounter resistance between 1065 – 1075.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 16. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 13,145 contracts between July 9 – 16, bringing their total position to a net short 185,750 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a two-sided trade, all three US wheat classes closed higher, led by Minneapolis futures; this was likely a result of spring wheat development concerns from dryness in parts of Canada and the US northern Plains. Corn and soybeans were sharply higher today as well, offering support to wheat. However, this may be more of a technical bounce from oversold conditions, wherein funds are covering some of their short positions. Additional support came from continued talk of quality concerns for the French and German wheat crops.

  • Friday’s CFTC report indicated that as of July 16, managed funds increased their short position in Chicago wheat to 75,886 contracts from 69,137 contracts the previous week. Additionally, for the same time period, they added to their short position in Kansas City wheat, going from 40,811 to 43,896 contracts. Their total short position in wheat, when you add in Minneapolis futures, is close to 145,000 contracts, their largest wheat short position in three months.

  • Weekly wheat inspections of 8.7 mb brought total 24/25 inspections to 95 mb. This is up 20% versus last year, and wheat inspections are running ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA’s 825 mb 24/25 export projection.  

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $219 per mt, unchanged from the previous week. Additionally, SovEcon said that Russia shipped 710,000 mt of grain last week, compared with 600,000 mt the week prior. Of that total, 660,000 mt was said to be wheat.

  • The Wheat Quality Council kicked off their hard red spring wheat tour today in Fargo, North Dakota. With the ND crop rated at 82% good to excellent as of July 15, they are expected to find good quality wheat. While the majority of the tour is within North Dakota, there will be some travel through northern South Dakota and western Minnesota.  

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of your July ‘25 620 Chicago Wheat puts at approximately 67 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Last month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts for approximately 34 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July Chicago wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 Chicago wheat has dropped over 100 cents, with the July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, and plenty of unknowns remain that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at a net neutral cost, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The consolidation of the Chicago wheat market shows support below the market around just above the March 523 ½ low. Should the market continue higher, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600. While a close below 523 ½ could suggest a lower trend towards 500 psychological support, with further support in the 490 – 470 area.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 16. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,749 contracts between July 9 – 16, bringing their total position to a net short 75,886 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After finding support just below 550, KC wheat prices could continue higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. A reversal lower, and a break below 545 could find further support in the 530 area.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 16. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,085 contracts between July 9 – 16, bringing their total position to a net short 43,896 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since rallying in late June, the market has retraced back toward its lows, and has broken the 644 support level. The breaking of 644 support suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved, and prices could trend lower. Considering this and that it is the time of year to begin getting early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider is implementing its Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling a portion of your 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish key reversal posted on July 17 indicates that support lies just below the market around 575, and given that the market is oversold, prices could run toward the July highs near 636. Below 575, support should remain in the 550 – 540 area.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 16. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,638 contracts between July 9 – 16, bringing their total position to a net short 25,361 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-19 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Close Out the Week in the Red

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures settled mixed as the market consolidated for the 9th consecutive session, and a heavy front end supply picture and soft export sales continue to limit rally potential.

  • Weakness in soybean meal and oil added downward pressure to the soybean market that had seen higher prices dominate in the overnight session. Old crop contracts continue to be supported by strong demand as buyers reach for needed supplies, while new crop contracts remain under pressure from a benign weather forecast and the potential for a large crop.

  • A sharp rally in Matif wheat, triggered by a drop in French wheat conditions, helped drive early gains in the wheat complex settled in the green, though well off its highs. Minneapolis contracts closed the strongest on crop concerns due to expected warm and dry conditions in the northern Plains and Canada.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, Drought Monitor, and the Seasonal Drought Outlook, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Considering we are at the time of year to get early sales made for next year’s crop, we recently issued our first sales recommendation for the 2025 corn crop. Given that the growing season has potential for high volatility and can provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year, we will also be watching the calendar along with price action. If our current Plan A upside objective in the 490 – 510 range isn’t met by our Plan B sales deadline of July 23, we will likely make another sales recommendation at that time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw mixed trade on Friday to end the week. Front end demand concerns pressured the market as prices finished fractionally lower as prices consolidated for the 9th session in a row. For the week, Dec corn posted a 10-cent loss.

  • The soft tone in old crop export sales this past week, and the potentially heavy front-end supply of corn kept pressure on front month contracts. Front end corn prices may be poised for selling pressure going into August as September Basis contracts will need to be priced, and producers look to move old crop corn to make room for this fall’s harvest.

  • Ethanol production has been a bright spot in recent corn demand. Weekly production remains strong and with the recent rise in oil prices, margins remain friendly. With that combination, ethanol producers have room to bid up for corn on the cash market, stockpiling for future ethanol production. Ethanol margins could be squeezed as crude oil prices dropped 3% today as the crude oil market saw long contract liquidation to end the week.

  • Weather forecasts going into the end of July remain supportive for crop development. Temperatures are to remain cool with moisture forecasted for many regions of the corn belt. Weather concerns regarding the corn market are now mostly past the point of concern unless there are extremes.

Above: The negative market action on July 15 puts the bullish reversal from report day July 12 in question. If support in the area of 391 holds and prices reverse back higher, they could run toward 425 – 430, though they may encounter initial resistance around 410 – 415. On the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the upper 1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean prices faded midday and settled lower after trading higher in the overnight session, with selling pressure coming from declining meal and oil prices. December bean oil retreated after hitting overhead resistance near key moving averages just below 45.00 cents, while December meal uncovered selling just below yesterday’s high.

  • The USDA reported another flash sale indicating that private exporters sold another 105,000 mt of soybean meal to unknown destinations. The sale had little effect on the market as soybean meal quickly sold off upon the market’s reopening of the day session.

  • With crush margins firm, the nearby August contract continues to see support from solid demand as buyers reach for hard to get supplies, still held by strong hands. While new crop contracts continue to see overhead resistance with a non-threatening weather outlook and the prospect of a large crop this fall.

  • Later today the CFTC will release its updated Commitment of Traders report, showing fund positions as of Tuesday, July 16. With the weak price action seen this week, it is anticipated that managed funds added to their extensive net short position, potentially bringing it to about 190,000 contracts.

Above: The large gap on the continuous chart represents the roll from the August soybean contract to the September, where the 50-cent premium in the August contract relative to the September contract is no longer represented. That said, support for the September contract on a break below 1030 may come in near the 1000 psychological level with further support around 985. Overhead, a turnaround toward higher prices may encounter resistance between 1065 – 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • While wheat did close in positive territory today, all three categories finished the session well below daily highs. Early strength came from Paris milling wheat futures; front month September gained 8.75 Euros per ton, filling the chart gap from earlier in the week by a long shot. This may be tied to French wheat crop ratings, which declined 5% to 52% good to excellent with 14% of the crop harvested. This is the slowest harvest pace since 2021, and last year at this time the crop was rated much more favorably at 80% good to excellent.

  • IKAR is reported to have lowered their estimate of Russian grain production by 1.5 mmt to 128 mmt. Additionally, they reduced Russian grain exports by 0.5 mmt to 55 mmt. On a related note, Ukraine’s grain harvest so far has reached 13.8 mmt, with 10.3 mmt of that being wheat.

  • A warmer and drier forecast for the US northern plains, as well as parts of the Canadian prairies, is causing some concern that spring wheat yields may be affected. This helped Minneapolis futures to rally today; they closed as today’s upside leader in the wheat complex. In addition, 12% of spring wheat acres are said to be in drought as of July 16, a jump from just 7% the week prior.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, planting of the 24/25 wheat crop in Argentina has advanced from 92.9% to 95% complete. The planted area estimate was unchanged at 6.3 million hectares. For reference, last year 5.9 million hectares of wheat were planted.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of your July ‘25 620 Chicago Wheat puts at approximately 67 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Last month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts for approximately 34 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July Chicago wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 Chicago wheat has dropped over 100 cents, with the July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, and plenty of unknowns remain that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at a net neutral cost, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The consolidation of the Chicago wheat market shows support below the market around just above the March 523 ½ low. Should the market continue higher, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600. While a close below 523 ½ could suggest a lower trend towards 500 psychological support, with further support in the 490 – 470 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After finding support just below 550, KC wheat prices could continue higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. A reversal lower, and a break below 545 could find further support in the 530 area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since rallying in late June, the market has retraced back toward its lows, and has broken the 644 support level. The breaking of 644 support suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved, and prices could trend lower. Considering this and that it is the time of year to begin getting early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider is implementing its Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling a portion of your 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish key reversal posted on July 17 indicates that support lies just below the market around 575, and given that the market is oversold, prices could run toward the July highs near 636. Below 575, support should remain in the 550 – 540 area.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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7-18 End of Day: Soybeans Higher Thursday on Strong Export Sales

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Disappointing export sales and continued favorable weather for the Corn Belt in the near-term pressured corn futures back near their recent lows on Thursday.

  • A flash sale this morning of just under 19 million bushels of soybeans to unknown destinations as well as strong weekly export sales helped soybean futures close higher across the board today.

  • Wheat export sales came in near the top of expectations last week led by South Korea. Wheat futures finished mixed on the day with spring wheat futures higher and Chicago futures falling lower.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, and 6–10-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Considering we are at the time of year to get early sales made for next year’s crop, we recently issued our first sales recommendation for the 2025 corn crop. Given that the growing season has potential for high volatility and can provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year, we will also be watching the calendar along with price action. If our current Plan A upside objective in the 490 – 510 range isn’t met by our Plan B sales deadline of July 23, we will likely make another sales recommendation at that time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Disappointing export sales and general talk of a larger corn yield helped pressure the corn market as prices are testing support under the market. Going into Friday’s trade, Dec corn is down 9 ¾ cents on the week.

  • USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Last week, U.S. exporters reported new sales of 438,000 MT (17.2 mb) for old crop and 486,000 MT (19.1 mb) for new. Old crop sales were below expectations, while export sale for new crop slightly exceeded expectations. The soft old crop sales pressured the front end of the corn market on Thursday.

  • With the friendly overall weather, strong crop ratings, talk in the marketplace is corn yield could be raised going into harvest. Some analyst groups are looking at a potential 183-184 bushels/acres yield, one analyst group posted an extreme number of 189 bushels/acre. Even with reduced harvested acres, a yield jump will add bushels to the potential corn stockpile.

  • A bright spot in corn demand is ethanol production. Weekly production remains strong and with the recent rise in oil prices, margins remain friendly. With that combination, ethanol producers have room to bid up for corn in the cash market, stockpiling for future ethanol production.

  • Weather concerns other than extremes are likely past the point of impacting the corn crop nationally. Going into the end of the month, the forecast remains very favorable for corn production.

Above: The negative market action on July 15 puts the bullish reversal from report day July 12 in question. If support in the area of 391 holds and prices reverse back higher, they could run toward 425 – 430, though they may encounter initial resistance around 410 – 415. On the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the upper 1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Solid export sales across the soybean complex, and flash sales reported for new crop beans helped soybeans close with modest gains near the top end of its range. Soybean oil also settled higher and toward the upper end of its range, while meal closed lower with most of the weakness in the nearby contracts.

  • The August/November spread may have reached a point of exhaustion, after reaching a fresh high of 61 cents, bear spreading took over and pushed the differential back to 55 ½, down ¾ of a cent from yesterday’s close.

  • The USDA released its weekly export sales report earlier today, showing 27 million bushels in new soybean sales as of July 11. The total was split between 13.2 mb for the 23/24 marketing year and 13.8 mb for the new crop 24/25 marketing year. Export shipments last week totaling 7.4 mb fell below the 14.8 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA export goal of 1.700 bb.

  • The USDA reported flash sales showing private exporters sold 510,000 mt (18.7 mb) of soybeans and 150,000 mt of soybean meal to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year. With rumors circulating that China was in the market to buy US beans off the PNW, the possibility remains that this soybean sale could be for them, though there is no way to know without confirmation.

  • Analyst APK-Inform lowered its 2024 Ukrainian sunflower seed and soybean crop estimates due to the hot and dry weather. The agency dropped sunflower seed production 1% to 14.5 mmt, and soybean production by 2% to 5.9 mmt. Ukraine is a leading exporter of sunflower seed products which compete with soybean meal and oil.

Above: The large gap on the continuous chart represents the roll from the August soybean contract to the September, where the 50 cent premium in the August contract relative to the September contract is no longer represented. That said, support for the September contract may come in near the 1000 psychological level with further support around 985. Overhead, a turnaround toward higher prices may encounter resistance between 1065 – 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed mixed amongst the three classes today. The US Dollar Index saw a sharp recovery, which offered resistance to commodities. Additionally, Paris milling wheat futures closed neutral to slightly lower and have yet to fill the chart gap above the market. Winter wheat harvest is headed towards completion, so perhaps the market is trying to carve out harvest lows.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 21.3 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 23.2 mb exceeded the 16.2 mb pace needed per wheat to reach the export goal of 825 mb. Sales commitments are also above the estimated pace, now totaling 284 mb, which is up 49% year on year.

  • Chinese customs data indicated that they imported 1.2 mmt of wheat in June, a 44% increase year on year. So far, year to date imports at 9.3 mmt are up 16% from last year.

  • According to Interfax, Grain Gates, a Russian grain trader increased their exports by 80% during the 23/24 season to 14.1 mmt. Reportedly they boosted the number of countries they export to. Top destinations include north African countries, Turkey, and Indonesia. Grain Gates was said to be one of the biggest Russian exporters during the first half of the 23/24 season.

  • With much improved soil moisture and growing conditions, Argentina’s wheat crop is expected to increase to 18.2 mmt for the 24/25 season due to higher yields. That would be up 14.9% from the previous year and may also be influenced by a larger planted area, expected to expand 5% year on year to 6.2 million hectares.

  • According to a study published in the journal Nature Genetics, Chinese scientists have found a gene that should improve wheat yields in salty soils. Using this knowledge of the salt tolerance gene could result in a yield boost of 5-9%. This may be important for Chinese grown wheat, as many of their primary production areas have high saline soils.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of your July ‘25 620 Chicago Wheat puts at approximately 67 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Last month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts for approximately 34 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July Chicago wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 Chicago wheat has dropped over 100 cents, with the July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, and plenty of unknowns remain that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at a net neutral cost, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break through 556 support suggests that the market could trend lower. Below the market, prices may find initial support around 520, with further support down between 490 and 470, with psychological support coming in near 500. If initial support around holds, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After breaking through the bottom end of its consolidation range, KC wheat may find support in the 560 – 550 area of last spring’s lows. If this area holds, prices could turn higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. Otherwise, a break below 550 could find further support in the 530 area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since rallying in late June, the market has retraced back toward its lows, and has broken the 644 support level. The breaking of 644 support suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved, and prices could trend lower. Considering this and that it is the time of year to begin getting early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider is implementing its Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling a portion of your 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The break below 596 support suggests that prices could retreat further towards the 550 – 540 support area. While a rally back above 600 could encounter resistance near 610 with heavier resistance near 636.

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