|

10-18 End of Day: Red Across the Board Going into the Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite strong export sales, the corn market was pressured by sharp declines in both soybeans and wheat, along with hedge activity ahead of the weekend, as it failed to advance much above the 408 resistance level (December) before drifting lower to close with small losses.

  • Soybeans changed course from Thursday to trade lower and close down on the day, pressured by hedging ahead of the weekend’s harvest activity, an improved South American weather outlook, and weakness in both meal and oil.

  • All three wheat classes settled lower on the day, with Chicago contracts leading the way down, as the complex came under heavy selling with reports that Russia is seeking to sell wheat to directly to “sovereign buyers,” which may limit US export sales to some key countries.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, US 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the South American 1-week forecast total precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market into harvest, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally. Until we post new sales targets, if you are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market failed to follow through on yesterday’s strength as strong selling in the wheat and soybean market limited potential price gains. Price action saw December corn fail at overhead resistance near 408, before slipping lower on the session. For the week, December corn lost 11 cents total.

  • Weekly export sales were strong for corn at 87.6 mb (2.225 mmt) for the week ending October 10. This total was above the high end of analysts’ expectations. Total sales are up 23% from last year and ahead of the pace to reach USDA 24/25 targets.

  • The USDA announced a flash export sale of corn before the session, with 125,000 mt (10.8 mb) purchased by unknown destinations for the current marketing year. This marks the fifth flash sale announced this week, as demand picked up around the 400 December futures price.

  • Corn harvest is expected to progress steadily as favorable weather conditions persist. The influx of new bushels into the pipeline will likely limit upside price potential in the corn market. Last week, the US corn harvest was 47% complete, and that figure is likely to increase again this week.

Above: The recent decline in prices from the early October high has been met with support near the psychologically significant 400 area. If this area holds and prices turn higher, the rally may be met with resistance around 415, with more significant resistance towards 428 – 434. Otherwise, a breach of 400 and close below 397 could signal a further decline with support near 385, and again around 372.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After hitting a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market rose steadily, reaching its peak in early October, driven by drier conditions in the US during the later stages of crop development and continued dryness in key soybean-growing regions of South America. During this time, managed funds covered over 80% of their significant short positions, creating the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions worsen, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if conditions improve, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and the market begins to price in any potential South American weather premium.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed the June sales recommendation triggered by the market’s close below 1180, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the current harvest period to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 could provide a good opportunity. For those with storage or capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Nov ’24. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The soybean market turned lower today, erasing yesterday’s gains but still holding above the November contract’s low of 968 ¼ from yesterday. Hedge pressure heading into the weekend, along with sharply lower soybean oil and a bearish reversal in meal, also contributed to the weakness.

  • The USDA’s weekly Export Sales report, released this morning, showed new soybean sales as of October 10 at 62.6 mb (1.703 mmt), with exports totaling 68 mb (1.853 mmt). New sales increased by 35% from the previous week and were 16% above the 4-week average, while exports were up 9% from last week and significantly higher than the 4-week average.

  • The USDA also reported private export sales of 21,000 mt of soybean oil to Mexico for delivery in the 24/25 marketing year, along with 292,800 mt of soybeans sold to unknown destinations, also for 24/25 delivery.

  • Safras & Mercado increased its Brazilian soybean export estimate by 10 mmt to 107 mmt, just above the USDA’s estimate of 105 mmt. The firm also raised its Brazilian crush estimate to 55.5 mmt versus the USDA’s 54 mmt.

Above: The recent downtrend appears to have found support near 980 on the front month chart, and with the market showing signs of being oversold, prices could rebound toward recent highs near 1070. Before that, prices may encounter resistance around 1025. If prices break the 980 support level in the January contract, they could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed sharply lower today, led by the Chicago contract and further pressured by lower Paris milling wheat futures. The weakness was driven by news that Russia’s grain exporting union intends to sell wheat directly to “sovereign buyers.” Member companies of Russia’s grain union account for roughly 80% of the country’s grain exports. This announcement could affect 13 countries and potentially limit US sales to these nations. According to Reuters, “non-Russian winners of international tenders will receive Russian grain only if they have long-term off-take agreements with Russian firms.”

  • US weekly wheat export sales were delayed until this morning due to Monday’s Columbus Day holiday. The USDA reported an increase of 18.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week of 14.4 mb fell below the 14.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. Additionally, sales commitments have reached 461 mb, which is up 17% from last year.

  • In other bearish news, Russia may be dumping additional wheat onto the market to avoid a tax hike on exports, and rains are forecasted for the US HRW wheat growing regions. Furthermore, customs data shows that Chinese wheat imports for September totaled 250,000 mt, down 60% year-over-year for that month. However, year-to-date imports are up 5.5% at 10.74 mmt.

  • The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia, in their monthly report, has increased their estimate of Western Australia’s 2024 wheat production from 9.3 to 9.91 mmt last month. This state is Australia’s largest wheat production region, and recent rains are cited as the reason for the increase. They also stated that production could continue to grow if conditions remain favorable. Aside from this update, wheat production for the entirety of Australia is expected to increase 18% year over year according to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Now estimated at 30.62 mmt, this rise in the estimate is also attributed to favorable rains in both Western Australia and New South Wales.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine, and dryness in the US plains. The nearly 100-cent rally from the August low to October high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While cheaper Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since hitting resistance near 617, December Chicago wheat has stair-stepped lower to the point of testing the 575 – 560 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of sliding toward the major support area between 521 and 514. Though intermediate support may be found around 544. Meanwhile, initial overhead resistance may lie between 595 and 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through early October also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although more competitive Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while also targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts, in case the market turns toward new lows.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The December contract’s break below 592 suggests that prices could decline further toward 561, with initial support likely around the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. On the upside, initial resistance is expected near 592, with stronger resistance around 623.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded up to its 200-day moving average and its highest level since mid-July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 75% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While more competitive export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break below the 100-day moving average suggests that prices could drift further toward the 604 support area, with additional support near the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. If prices turn higher, overhead resistance may be around 632, with stronger resistance near 655.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

10-17 End of Day: Markets Recover Earlier Losses to Close Mostly Higher Across the Board

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After holding support near the key 400 level (December), the corn market likely benefited from technical buying and short covering due to oversold conditions, closing well off its lows with the December contract leading the rebound.

  • Boosted by bullish turnarounds in both soybean meal and oil, along with bull spreading from the November contract, soybean prices rebounded to close higher after hitting a fresh 2-month low. Bean oil settled just below its highs, rallying 117 points from its daily low with moving average support just beneath the market. Soybean meal also recovered from earlier lows, extending gains from yesterday’s firm close.

  • Like the corn and soybean markets, the wheat complex rebounded from earlier session lows, finding support once again near key moving averages, along with additional support from higher Matif wheat prices.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, US Drought Monitor, and the South American 1-week forecast total precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market into harvest, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally. Until we post new sales targets, if you are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished mixed to slightly higher in the front end of the market as December corn prices saw a small bounce after holding the key 400 support level. Strength in the wheat and soybean markets likely triggered some technical buying and short cover going into the end of the week. So far, going into Friday, December corn is 9 cents lower on the week.

  • The 400 level on Dec corn has seemed to trigger some export demand. The USDA announced large purchases yesterday, and today posted two new export sales. Mexico added 197,180 mt (7.6 mb) and Unknown destinations added 101,000 mt (4.1 mb) in US export sales for the current marketing year.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales totals on Friday morning, delayed a day due to the Columbus Day holiday on Monday. Expectations are for new corn sales to range from 1.2 – 2.2 mmt.  Last week, export sales were 1.222 mmt.

  • Weekly ethanol production rebounded to 1.042 million barrels per day last week, in line with analysts’ expectations. A total of 105 million bushels of corn was used for ethanol production, keeping the pace needed to meet USDA usage targets by the end of the marketing year.

  • Corn harvest will likely continue to move along at a steady pace as weather conditions remain favorable. The addition of new bushels in the pipeline will limit upside price potential in the corn market.

Above: The recent decline in prices from the early October high has been met with support near the psychologically significant 400 area. If this area holds and prices turn higher, the rally may be met with resistance around 415, with more significant resistance towards 428 – 434. Otherwise, a breach of 400 and close below 397 could signal a further decline with support near 385, and again around 372.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After hitting a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market rose steadily, reaching its peak in early October, driven by drier conditions in the US during the later stages of crop development and continued dryness in key soybean-growing regions of South America. During this time, managed funds covered over 80% of their significant short positions, creating the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions worsen, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if conditions improve, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and the market begins to price in any potential South American weather premium.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after trading lower throughout most of the morning. When soybeans began to recover around midday, they were led higher by the November contract while the deferred contracts trailed behind. This narrowed the spread and could be pointing to traders rolling out of their November short positions for later months. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher.

  • On Friday’s CFTC report, funds had reportedly slimmed down their net short position to just 21,000 contracts as of October 8. Since that day, they are estimated to have sold an additional 30,000 contracts which would leave them net short nearly 50,000 contracts at this point. When soybeans reached their lows in August, funds held a net short position of just over 175,000 contracts. If fundamentals continue to be bearish with a strong US harvest and good Brazilian weather, funds have the potential to take prices significantly lower.

  • In China, the soybean harvest in the major producing area of Heihe is nearly finished and is expected to see a bumper harvest. While China has been a buyer of US soybeans recently, this could impact future business to a small degree. China remains reliant on Brazil and then the US for soybean imports.

  • In Brazil, rain has fallen steadily over the past 7 days with more in the upcoming forecast. The central regions which contain the primary soybean producing states had previously been very dry but have gotten over 1 inch in most areas.

Above: The recent downtrend appears to have found support near 980 in the November contract, and with the market showing signs of being oversold, prices could rebound toward recent highs near 1070. Before that, prices may encounter resistance around 1025. If prices break the 980 support level, they could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat reversed from early losses to close mostly higher across all three classes. Once again, Matif wheat futures appeared to lead the US market, gaining another 1.25 to 2.50 euros per metric ton by today’s settlement. The grain complex as a whole also recovered, with higher closes across the board, including soybean products and oats. From a technical standpoint, most of these markets were at or near oversold levels, and wheat in particular bounced off support near the 40 and 50-day moving averages (as it did yesterday).

  • Drought conditions in US wheat-growing regions continue to worsen. According to the USDA, as of October 15, an estimated 52% of winter wheat acres are experiencing drought, up from 47% the previous week. Additionally, drought in spring wheat areas increased from 29% to 32% during the same period. However, rains are forecasted for the US Southern Plains by this weekend, which should help replenish soil moisture in key winter wheat-growing regions.

  • SovEcon reportedly reduced its Russian wheat production forecast to 81.5 mmt, down 1.4 mmt from the previous estimate. If accurate, this would mark the smallest harvest in four years. In related news, Russia will reportedly allow Kazakhstan to transport grain through Russia to other importers, though Russia itself will not permit imports.

  • French soft wheat exports for the 24/25 season have been reduced to 10.025 mmt from 10.100 mmt previously, according to FranceAgriMer. The decline is said to be tied to a 61% drop in sales outside of the EU. Additionally, the estimated stockpiles were reduced from 2.75 to 2.50 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine, and dryness in the US plains. The nearly 100-cent rally from the August low to October high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While cheaper Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through early October also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although more competitive Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while also targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts, in case the market turns toward new lows.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The December contract’s break below 592 suggests that prices could decline further toward 561, with initial support likely around the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. On the upside, initial resistance is expected near 592, with stronger resistance around 623.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded up to its 200-day moving average and its highest level since mid-July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 75% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While more competitive export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break below the 100-day moving average suggests that prices could drift further toward the 604 support area, with additional support near the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. If prices turn higher, overhead resistance may be around 632, with stronger resistance near 655.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

10-16 End of Day: Soybeans Slip Further as Feed Grains Rebound

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A higher wheat market and two flash sales—one sizable, though anticipated, to Mexico and the other to unknown destinations—lent support to the corn market, which held the key 400 support level and closed higher amid the fast harvest pace.

  • A quick harvest pace and improving planting conditions in Brazil continue to weigh heavily on the soybean market, which has closed lower in eight of the last 10 sessions as funds reestablish short positions. Selling in soybean oil, which also ended the day lower, added to the weakness, while meal consolidated from its recent selloff, and closed firm with minor gains.

  • All three classes of wheat closed with modest gains after holding support above key moving averages, as Matif wheat lent additional support with its higher daily close.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks and the South American 1-week forecast total precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market into harvest, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally. Until we post new sales targets, if you are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market ended its four-day selling streak as prices held the key 400 level in the December futures and back tested resistance during the session. A large export purchase, and a firm wheat market helped support corn futures.

  • The USDA announced two flash sales of corn this morning. Mexico purchased 1.623 mmt (66.9 mb) of corn split between the current and the next marketing year; 1,043 mmt (41.1 mb) for the 24/25 marketing year and 579,120 mt (22.8 mb) for the 25/26 marketing year. In addition, unknown destinations purchased 332,000 mt (13.1 mb) for the 24/25 marketing year. The large Mexico purchase was anticipated as Mexico seasonally makes a large purchase in this window, which limited any price gains.

  • US corn harvest continues to move a long rapidly. On Tuesday’s Crop Progress report, the USDA stated that corn harvest was 47% complete, up 17% from last week and 8% above 5-year average. Harvest pressure and a large crop forecast will continue to limit prices in the corn market.

  • Brazil Ag Agency, CONAB, released its forecast for the 24/25 corn crop on Tuesday. CONAB expects corn production to increase to 119.74 mmt, up 4 mmt (3.5%) from last year’s totals despite a slightly lower planted area forecast.

Above: The recent decline in prices from the early October high has been met with support near the psychologically significant 400 area. If this area holds and prices turn higher, the rally may be met with resistance around 415, with more significant resistance towards 428 – 434. Otherwise, a breach of 400 and close below 397 could signal a further decline with support near 385, and again around 372.

Above: Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After hitting a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market rose steadily, reaching its peak in early October, driven by drier conditions in the US during the later stages of crop development and continued dryness in key soybean-growing regions of South America. During this time, managed funds covered over 80% of their significant short positions, creating the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions worsen, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if conditions improve, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and the market begins to price in any potential South American weather premium.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the fifth consecutive day as funds continue to pressure markets as a result of improved South American weather. Both the November and January contracts are now below $10.00 and are technically oversold. November soybeans have lost over 85 cents from their high at the beginning of the month. Soybean meal ended the day slightly higher while soybean oil was lower.

  • This morning, the USDA reported a private export sale of 175,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. While this followed yesterday’s flash sale to China of 131,000 metric tons, it has not been enough to support futures.

  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed that the soybean crop is now 67% harvested. This was ahead of the average trade guess of 64%. The harvested number is also above last year’s pace of 57% and the 5-year average of 51%. Dry weather has enabled producers to accelerate harvest.

  • In Brazil, rain has fallen steadily over the past 7 days with more in the upcoming forecast. The central regions which contain the primary soybean producing states had previously been very dry but have gotten over 1 inch in most areas.

Above: The recent downtrend appears to have found support near 980 in the November contract, and with the market showing signs of being oversold, prices could rebound toward recent highs near 1070. Before that, prices may encounter resistance around 1025. If prices break the 980 support level, they could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Above: Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat gained roughly 3–5 cents across all three US classes today. As has been the case recently, US wheat may have followed Matif contracts, which rose 0.50 to 1.50 euros per mt in today’s session. The rally could also be attributed to a bounce off technical support levels, as December contracts in all three classes tested support near their 40 and 50-day moving averages before recovering.

  • As of October 13, 64% of the US winter wheat crop is planted, according to the USDA. This is slightly behind last year’s pace of 65% and the 5-year average of 66%. Additionally, 35% of the crop has emerged, also trailing last year’s 36% and the average pace of 38%.

  • Russia’s grain exporters union has set a consensus indicator price of $240 per mt FOB for wheat exports in October, increasing to $245 in November and $250 in December. In theory, exporters should not sell below these levels, but it remains unclear whether they will adhere to these restrictions.

  • The European Commission reports that EU soft wheat exports are down 29% year over year. Since the season began on July 1, exports have reached 6.64 mmt, compared to 9.3 mmt during the same period last year. Nigeria, the top importer, took 991,000 mt, followed by other North African countries, including Egypt and Morocco.

  • The Indian government, through its farm ministry, has raised the minimum purchase price for domestic wheat for the 24/25 season to 2,425 rupees per 100 kg, up from 2,275 rupees last year. The reported cost of production is 1,182 rupees. The minimum prices for other crops, including rapeseed, lentils, and barley, have also been increased.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine, and dryness in the US plains. The nearly 100-cent rally from the August low to October high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While cheaper Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through early October also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although more competitive Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while also targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts, in case the market turns toward new lows.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The December contract’s break below 592 suggests that prices could decline further toward 561, with initial support likely around the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. On the upside, initial resistance is expected near 592, with stronger resistance around 623.

Above: Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded up to its 200-day moving average and its highest level since mid-July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 75% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While more competitive export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break below the 200-day moving average suggests that prices could drift further toward the 604 support area, with additional support near the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. If prices turn higher, overhead resistance may be around 632, with stronger resistance near 655.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

10-15 End of Day: Grains Continue Their Slide, Closing Lower Across the Board

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Harvest pressure and sharply lower crude oil weighed on the corn market throughout the session, pushing the December contract to its lowest close since late August.

  • A flash sale to China, solid weekly export inspections, and much higher than expected NOPA crush numbers helped November soybeans curb some of its losses and close 10 cents off its low. Soybean oil found support near the 50-day moving average to close higher on the day, while meal settled lower after resuming its downtrend.  

  • Despite a flash sale of 120,000 mt of wheat and export inspections running 33% ahead of last year, the wheat complex closed lower across the board for the third consecutive day, pressured by sharp losses in crude oil and a third day of declines in Matif wheat.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks and the South American 1-week forecast total precipitation as a percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market into harvest, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally. Until we post new sales targets, if you are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures fell to the lowest price levels since September 23 during Tuesday’s session, as strong selling in the crude oil market and ongoing harvest pressure weighed on corn prices. With today’s close, December corn is now trading 33 cents off the October 1 high of 434.

  • The crude oil market traded over 5% lower during the session as global demand concerns and easing tension between Iran and Israel pushed sellers into the market. The sharp break in crude prices limited commodity gains in general on Tuesday.

  • Weekly corn export inspections were below market expectations. Last week, the US shipped 16.9 mb (430,000 mt) of corn. This total was less than half of the previous week’s total as exporters are likely shifting to shipping fresh soybean supplies. Current corn inspections are up 19% year over year and running above the pace needed to hit the USDA targets.

  • The weather forecast continues to stay favorable for corn harvest. With strong yields overall, the market is seeing selling pressure as fresh supplies enter the pipeline. Corn harvest was 34% complete last week, and the market is anticipating a good jump on the harvest percentage in today’s USDA Crop Progress report.

Above: Since the beginning of October, the near-term trend has been down. Initial support may come in near 410, with further support near the 50-day moving average and again around 397-400. On the top side, initial resistance may come in near 428, with heavier resistance near the recent high of 434 ¼.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After hitting a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market rose steadily, reaching its peak in early October, driven by drier conditions in the US during the later stages of crop development and continued dryness in key soybean-growing regions of South America. During this time, managed funds covered over 80% of their significant short positions, creating the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions worsen, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if conditions improve, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and the market begins to price in any potential South American weather premium.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower but were bull spread with the front months down less than the deferred contracts. Soybeans had bullish fundamental news like a flash sale, strong export inspections, and strong NOPA crush numbers. Soybean meal ended the day lower, while soybean oil was higher despite sharply lower crude oil.

  • Today’s NOPA crush report showed US soybean crush up significantly to 177.320 million bushels for September, which compared to the average trade estimate of 170 mb. This was up 12.2% from the 158 mb in August. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.066 billion pounds and are the lowest they have been since November 2014.

  • This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 131,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.

  • Today’s export inspections report showed soybeans inspected for export totaled 57.9 mb for the week ending October 10. This was at the higher end of analyst estimates and puts total inspections for the 24/25 marketing year at 189 mb, which is down 7% from the previous year.

Above: The recent downtrend appears to have found support near 1080 in the November contract, and with the market showing signs of being oversold, prices could rebound toward recent highs near 1070. Before that, prices may encounter resistance around 1025. If prices break the 980 support level, they could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed the session with modest losses, finishing near daily lows across all three futures classes. Paris milling wheat futures declined for the third consecutive day, adding pressure. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, though nearly unchanged at the time of writing, strengthened throughout the session after finding support around the 103 level. The index is now above its 100-day moving average for the second straight day, a level it had not surpassed since July 11, 2023.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections of 13.6 mb bring total 24/25 inspections to 330 mb, up 33% from last year. Additionally, the USDA estimates wheat exports at 825 mb (unchanged from the last WASDE report), which would be a 17% increase from the previous year.

  • Crude oil experienced another sharp drop today, at one point falling more than four dollars per barrel. This appears to be tied to news that Israel does not intend to target Iranian oil facilities as previously expected. Furthermore, both OPEC and the International Energy Agency reduced their global oil demand estimates. The downturn in crude likely added pressure to the grain complex, and if the trend continues, it could also limit upward grain price movement in the event of a recovery.

  • On a bullish note, the USDA announced a flash sale this morning, reporting that private exporters sold 120,000 mt of soft red winter wheat to Mexico for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year. In other news, Jordan reportedly passed on its tender for 120,000 mt of wheat.

  • CONAB estimates Brazil’s 24/25 wheat production at 8.26 mmt, unchanged from last month and below the USDA’s estimate of 9 mmt. Additionally, recent rains in Argentina’s wheat-growing areas have helped improve conditions, though at this point it may be too little, too late. Last week, the Rosario Grains Exchange lowered its Argentina wheat harvest estimate to 19.5 mmt due to a lack of precipitation.

  • According to the French agriculture ministry, the soft wheat harvest estimate has been reduced from 25.8 to 25.4 mmt. If accurate, this would represent a 27.6% decline from last season’s production. Additionally, barley production is expected to fall, though the corn production estimate has been raised slightly from last month.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine, and dryness in the US plains. The nearly 100-cent rally from the August low to October high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While cheaper Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through early October also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although more competitive Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while also targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts, in case the market turns toward new lows.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The December contract’s break below 592 suggests that prices could decline further toward 561, with initial support likely around the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. On the upside, initial resistance is expected near 592, with stronger resistance around 623.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded up to its 200-day moving average and its highest level since mid-July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 75% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While more competitive export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break below the 200-day moving average suggests that prices could drift further toward the 604 support area, with additional support near the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. If prices turn higher, overhead resistance may be around 632, with stronger resistance near 655.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil, N. Argentina 1 week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 1 week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

10-14 End of Day: Grains Continue Friday’s Slide Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Sellers maintained control in the corn market to start the week, encouraged by sharp losses in the wheat market and clear weather conditions to maintain a healthy harvest pace.

  • Sharply lower soybean oil prices and an improved South American weather outlook weighed heavily on the soybean market, which closed at the bottom of the day’s 13-cent range in the November contract. Soybean meal on the other hand settled mid-range and near unchanged following a day of choppy two-sided trade.

  • A lack of fresh supportive news, combined with weakness across the commodity sector—including Matif wheat and crude oil—along with a firm US dollar, weighed heavily on the wheat complex, which closed with double-digit losses, just off their respective lows for all three US classes.

  • To see the updated US 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation outlooks as well as the South American 1 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed, US demand has picked up, and South American weather has been dry. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop could limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers have found value at these multi-year low price levels. Now that managed funds have covered a significant portion of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or continued South American dryness could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields are strong and South American weather turns more seasonal, prices could be at risk of retreating from recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • With little fresh news to push prices higher, the corn market began the week with sellers in control, led by weakness in the wheat market, and good harvest weather that helps keep harvest pressure in place.   

  • FranceAgriMer data indicated that the French corn harvest is only 6% complete as of October 7, due to wet conditions. This is the slowest pace in 11 years and compares to 50% completed last year.

  • Crop analyst APK-Inform, lowered its corn export forecast for Ukraine by 11%, dropping it from 22.5 million metric tons to 20 mmt, largely due to lower production.

  • With the US currently being the cheapest source of corn on the global market, production and export losses in regions like Ukraine and France could shift some demand to the US, potentially supporting US corn prices.

  • Harvest will likely stay at a strong pace this week as midwestern weather forecasts remain mostly dry. Harvest was 30% complete last week, but that is expected to jump as producers are finishing soybean harvest and move over to corn. Hedging pressure will likely limit prices in the corn market. The USDA will release its updated crop progress report Tuesday afternoon with government offices closed for the Columbus Day holiday.

Above: Since the beginning of October, the near-term trend has been down. Initial support may come in near 410, with further support near the 50-day moving average and again around 397-400. On the top side, initial resistance may come in near 428, with heavier resistance near the recent high of 434 ¼.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 43,970 contracts between October 1 – 8, bringing their total position to a net short 23,729 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans continued with the momentum from Friday’s WASDE report and closed lower today with the November contract closing below 1000 for the first time in one month. Pressure has come from the ongoing US harvest and improved South American weather that is allowing planting to move at a better pace. Soybean meal closed higher today while soybean oil fell sharply.

  • In Brazil, the 15-day forecast shows strong probabilities of rain totaling over 2 inches in the central regions, including Mato Grosso, the largest producing state and one of the driest until recent rainfall. Friday’s WASDE report kept Brazilian soybean production unchanged at 169 mmt.

  • Since Brazil was previously too dry to begin planting, they are now behind at only 9.3% complete which compares to the pace of 17.4% at this time last year. If growing conditions remain favorable in South America following the US harvest, funds could be in a position to aggressively sell soybeans again now that they have pared down their net short position.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds bought 13,088 contracts of soybeans, leaving them net short 21,798 contracts. Over the past three days, funds are estimated to have sold an additional 11,000 contracts and likely have sold more today.

Above: The break below 1030 support puts the market at risk of trading lower and testing support between the 50-day moving average and 995. Should this area hold, and prices turn back higher, overhead resistance remains near 1070 and the 100-day moving average.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 13,088 contracts between October 1 – 8, bringing their total position to a net short 21,798 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed the session with double-digit losses across all three US classes. Pressure came from a lower close for Matif wheat, weakness in corn and soybeans, a lack of fresh supportive news, and a rise in the US Dollar Index. Additionally, OPEC reportedly lowered its global crude oil usage estimate for 2024 and 2025. This marks the third reduction in as many months and may have added pressure to the grain complex.

  • From a technical perspective, December Chicago wheat closed below the 21-day moving average (587 ¾) for the first time since the end of August. Breaking this support level may trigger further liquidation, with the next support around 572, right between the 40- and 50-day moving averages.

  • Over the weekend, reports emerged of a new Russian missile attack on Ukraine. Two civilian vessels and a grain storage facility were damaged in the Odessa area, resulting in at least one death and several injuries. Despite this, the market showed little concern, as indicated by wheat’s lower close.

  • SovEcon reported that Russia shipped 1.1 mmt of grain last week, with wheat making up 1 mmt of that total. Additionally, IKAR noted that Russia’s wheat export price closed at $230 per metric ton FOB, up $7 from the previous week. In related news, Russia’s agriculture ministry announced a new minimum price floor for wheat exports, set at $250 per metric ton.

  • Industry analyst APK-Inform has reportedly decreased their estimate of Ukraine’s 24/25 grain exports from 39.1 to 37.2 mmt. However, this pertains mostly to expected declines in the corn harvest. They actually raised the 2024 wheat harvest production to 21.5 mmt, compared to 21.2 mmt previously. Furthermore, they increased their estimate of wheat exports from 13.8 to 14.4 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,496 contracts between October 1 – 8, bringing their total position to a net short 29,449 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through September also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although low Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while also targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts, in case the market turns toward new lows.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December KC wheat has been consolidating between the recent high of 623 and 592 down below. A close above 623 could set the market up to test the 50% retracement level of 637 back toward the May high. Whereas a close below 592 could put the market at risk of retreating further, with support coming in near 581, and again between 571 and 561.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, October 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 9,386 contracts between October 1 – 8, bringing their total position to a net short 5,884 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent breakout was met with resistance just below the 200-day moving average, a close above which could put the market on track to run towards 685. Below the market, initial support remains near the 100-day ma, with further support near 604.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 6,093 contracts between October 1 – 8, bringing their total position to a net short 7,661 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

10-11 End of Day: Grains Lower on Friday after USDA WASDE Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures fell lower on Friday after the USDA increased the US corn yield slightly to come in at 183.8, a slight yield cut was expected by the trade going into the report. Corn ending stocks came in just below the psychological 2-billion-bushel level but above pre-report estimates.

  • Following a neutral WASDE report, soybean futures slipped lower to end the week. US soybean ending stocks were left unchanged from last month’s estimate but better rain chances in Brazil applied pressure to the soybean market throughout the week.

  • US weather is forecast to remain mostly favorable to continued strong harvest progress over the next week with above normal temperatures and normal to below normal chances for precipitation.

  • After a strong week, wheat futures pulled back on Friday after a mostly neutral USDA WASDE report. Weakness in corn and soybean futures as well as an unexpected increase in World wheat ending stocks pressured wheat to end the week.

  • To see the updated US 7-day moisture outlook as well as the Brazil and northern Argentina 2 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed, US demand has picked up, and South American weather has been dry. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop could limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers have found value at these multi-year low price levels. Now that managed funds have covered a significant portion of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or continued South American dryness could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields are strong and South American weather turns more seasonal, prices could be at risk of retreating from recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A higher-than-expected corn yield and ending stocks total on Friday’s USDA report limited corn futures on the session. For the week, Dec corn futures lost 9 cents as the market will now stay focused on harvest progress and the South American weather forecast in the weeks ahead.

  • The USDA Crop Production report showed a slight increase in corn yield for this fall to 183.8 Bu/A, up 0.2 of a bushel from last month. Most of the strength in the yield came from the central and western corn belt, offsetting the dry conditions in the eastern corn belt. This put total production at 15.203 billion bushels, up slightly from last month

  • On the demand side of the table, the USDA raise 2024-25 corn exports by 25 mb from their September forecast. The combination of yield and higher demand, and the lower-than-expected grain stock lowered carryout to 1.999 billion bushels. This was 37 mb above the market expectation and weighed on prices.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn overnight. Unknown destinations purchased 577,928 MT (22.8 mb) of corn for the current marketing year. Expectations this was a sale to Mexico, who typically steps into the U.S. corn market more heavily during the harvest window to secure supplies.

  • Harvest will likely stay at a strong pace through the weekend as midwestern weather forecasts remain dry into next week. Harvest was 30% complete last week, but that is expected to jump as producers are finishing soybean harvest and move over to corn. Hedging pressure will likely limit prices in the corn market.

Above: The recent close above the 200-day moving average was met with resistance near 434 and prices retreated. Support below the market could come in between 420 and 416, near the 100-day ma. Below there, further support could be found between 410 and 400.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • With the exception of the November contract, soybeans posted double-digit losses for the session. Today’s WASDE report was relatively neutral for beans, so after the data was released, the market may have gone back to trading South American weather. The forecast continues to show better chances for rain in some of the dry central areas of Brazil next week. However, the USDA did leave both Argentina and Brazil production unchanged at 48.1 and 153 mmt respectively.

  • On today’s report, the USDA lowered the soybean yield just slightly, from 53.2 to 52.1 bpa. Production also dropped a bit, from 4.586 bb to 4.582 bb. Harvested acreage was kept unchanged at 86.3 million and US 24/25 ending stocks were also in line with last month at 550 mb. As far as global numbers are concerned, the 23/24 carryout increased from 112.3 mmt to 112.4 mmt while 24/25 ending stocks were also bumped slightly from 134.6 mmt to 134.7 mmt.

  • Though crude oil attempted to rally back to positive territory earlier in the session, as of writing crude futures are about 20 to 40 cents lower per barrel. The initial comeback off the session low was supportive to bean oil and the grain complex, but if it continues to fade lower it may offer resistance instead.

  • USDA announced another flash sale of soybean before the day session on Friday. Unknown destinations purchased 132,000 MT (4.85 mb) for the 2024-25 marketing year. Soybean export demand for the marketing year has started at a good pace. This was the 13th published soybean sale since the marketing year began on September 1.

Above: The break below 1030 support puts the market at risk of trading lower and testing support between the 50-day moving average and 995. Should this area hold, and prices turn back higher, overhead resistance remains near 1070 and the 100-day moving average.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted modest losses in all three US futures classes, alongside a lower close for Matif wheat futures. US wheat has been a follower of Paris milling wheat, so this may account for some of today’s weakness, especially given the fact that the WASDE report was mostly neutral. And despite the lower close today, further tensions in the Black Sea region may continue to offer support to the complex.

  • On today’s report US 24/25 wheat carryout came in at 812 mb, down from the average trade guess of 821 mb and the September figure of 828 mb. In addition, global 23/24 wheat carryout was pegged at 266.2 mmt, compared with 265.3 mmt last month. For 24/25 world wheat ending stocks were estimated at 257.7 mmt versus 257.2 mmt in September.

  • In addition to the above data, US wheat exports were kept unchanged today at 825 mb. Harvested acreage was increased from 37.9 to 38.5 million. Globally, Russian wheat production declined 1 mmt from the September estimate to 82 mmt, but Ukraine production slightly increased from 22.3 mmt to 22.9 mmt. Production estimates for Argentina and Australia were unchanged at 18 mmt and 32 mmt respectively.

  • Today traders also received PPI data, which indicated that producer prices were unchanged compared to last month, while most were looking for a 0.1% increase. This has the US Dollar Index down slightly; if it now begins to trend lower, that would be supportive to wheat prices.

  • SovEcon also released an estimate of Russian wheat production this morning. They now project it at 81.5 mmt, which is down 1.4 mmt from their last estimate. As stated above, the USDA is now at 82 mmt. In addition to this, the Russian ag minister was said to have met with major grain exporting companies today, likely to discuss an export quota. Their ag ministry did reveal a 41% increase to their wheat export tax, now at 1,872 Rubles per mt. This may be in an effort to slow down their grain export sales.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through September also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although low Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while also targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts, in case the market turns toward new lows.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December KC wheat has been consolidating between the recent high of 623 and 592 down below. A close above 623 could set the market up to test the 50% retracement level of 637 back toward the May high. Whereas a close below 592 could put the market at risk of retreating further, with support coming in near 581, and again between 571 and 561.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent breakout was met with resistance just below the 200-day moving average, a close above which could put the market on track to run towards 685. Below the market, initial support remains near the 100-day ma, with further support near 604.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil and N. Argentina 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

10-10 End of Day: Wheat Higher, Corn and Soybeans Slide Ahead of WASDE Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures slid lower today to their lowest close of the month ahead of Friday’s WASDE report where traders expect a slight reduction in the national yield estimate. Export sales of corn last week were strong yet again with unknown destinations as the top buyer.

  • Soybean futures backtracked today reversing the gains made on Wednesday ahead of tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report. Soybean meal futures were lower for a seventh consecutive session while soybean oil moved higher following sharply higher crude prices.

  • Wheat futures held onto marginal gains on Thursday as prices hung near the top end of the recent range. Export sales were as expected for wheat last week providing underlying support.

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor, and the 1-week precipitation forecast for South America, courtesy of the NDMC, NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed, US demand has picked up, and South American weather has been dry. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop could limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers have found value at these multi-year low price levels. Now that managed funds have covered a significant portion of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or continued South American dryness could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields are strong and South American weather turns more seasonal, prices could be at risk of retreating from recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June, we recommended purchasing Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, due to their relative value and the typically high market volatility during that time of year, and we continue to target a value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting at this level will allow you to lock in gains that offset much of the original position’s cost, while holding the remaining 510 calls at or near a net-neutral cost. This strategy should continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence for further sales during an extended rally. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices finished the session lower on Thursday due to hedge pressure and likely position squaring before Friday’s USDA WASDE Report. It was a difficult close technically as prices failed to hold early session strength and closed under the 420 level on the Dec contract. This could trigger additional selling going into the evening session.

  • USDA will release the October Crop Production and Supply/Demand report on Friday morning at 11:00 CST. Expectations are for corn yield to decrease slightly to 183.5 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels from last month. With improved demand and slightly lower potential production, corn carryout for the marketing year is looking to be lowered for the fourth consecutive month, with the average trade guess at 1.988 billion bushels.

  • The market will be focused on the demand side of the balance sheet for corn to see if USDA will make adjustments. Export demand and ethanol usage are off to a strong start in the marketing year. The marketing year is only a few weeks old (starting on Sept 1) but increases in demand and moving carryout projection under 2.000 billion could give the market a psychological boost, even though stocks are still at 4-year highs.

  • The weekly export sales report was within expectations on Thursday morning. As of October 3, new export sales totaled 1.222 MMT (48.1 mb). Mexico continued to be the top buyer of US corn. Total corn sales are now at 695 mb, up 15% over last year and the fifth best set of sales for this time in the last 10 years.

  • Brazilian and Argentina corn prices have been climbing in recent sessions, due to lack of farmer selling and an overall tighter supply picture in South America. The increase in prices should help keep US prices supported in the spring months, boosting our possible export figures.

Above: The recent close above the 200-day moving average was met with resistance near 434 and prices retreated. Support below the market could come in between 420 and 416, near the 100-day ma. Below there, further support could be found between 410 and 400.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The soybean complex closed the day mixed with soybeans settling lower as they came under pressure from seventh consecutive day of lower prices in meal, improved planting conditions in Brazil, which is seeing increased rain activity, and continued harvest pressure from the quick US harvest pace.

  • In today’s weekly export sales report, the USDA reported 46.45 million bushels of new sales for the 24/25 marketing year in the week ending October 3. This brings total commitments to 740 mb, up 4% versus last year, but behind the USDA’s forecast of a 9% increase. The primary destination was China with 21.4 mb, of which 8.1 mb were switched from unknown destinations.

  • Tomorrow, the USDA will release the next WASDE report with updated production and supply/demand information. Expectations are for soybean yield to remain mostly steady from last month at 53.2 bushels per acre, with carryout for the current 24/25 marketing year expected to be lowered slightly to 546 million bushels.

  • Weather conditions across the Midwest are expected to remain dry with above normal temperatures, which should allow harvest to continue at a good clip. The quick harvest pace may continue to limit rally potential with hedge pressure as bushels are sold across the scales.

Above: The break below 1030 support puts the market at risk of trading lower and testing support between the 50-day moving average and 995. Should this area hold, and prices turn back higher, overhead resistance remains near 1070 and the 100-day moving average.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • US wheat futures closed higher again today across the board, alongside a higher close for Matif wheat futures. After the grain close the US Dollar is about unchanged but has traded both sides of neutral today; wheat remained relatively steady through the session despite the fact that the Dollar did break back above 103. Traders’ focus may still be on Black Sea tensions, with reports that a Russian missile attack yesterday against Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odessa killed six people and injured eight others.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 15.9 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.2 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 13.2 mb fell below the 14.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. Total sales commitments have reached 443 mb, which is up 19% from last year.

  • Pre-report estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report look relatively neutral, if not slightly supportive for wheat. The average guess for US 24/25 carryout comes in at 821 mb, which would be down from 828 mb in September. As far as world numbers are concerned, 23/24 wheat ending stocks are projected at 265.0 mmt vs 265.3 mmt last month, while 24/25 ending stocks are estimated to come in at 256.4 mmt vs 257.2 mmt in September.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange is said to have lowered their estimate of Argentina’s wheat production by 1 mmt to 19.5 mmt due to dryness. For reference, this is still above the USDA’s figure of 18 mmt. While Argentina has received some recent rainfall, it may be too little too late for the wheat crop.

  • According to the USDA as of October 8, about 47% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions. This is up from 44% the week prior. In addition, spring wheat areas saw an increase from 22% to 29% for the same time period.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through September also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although low Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while also targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts, in case the market turns toward new lows.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December KC wheat has been consolidating between the recent high of 623 and 592 down below. A close above 623 could set the market up to test the 50% retracement level of 637 back toward the May high. Whereas a close below 592 could put the market at risk of retreating further, with support coming in near 581, and again between 571 and 561.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent breakout was met with resistance just below the 200-day moving average, a close above which could put the market on track to run towards 685. Below the market, initial support remains near the 100-day ma, with further support near 604.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

10-9 End of Day: Soybeans Find Support on Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The Wednesday session for corn started with another daily export flash sale announcement of corn sold to unknown destinations but ended with corn closing near unchanged across all contact months.

  • Soybeans managed to find support on Wednesday after Tuesday’s poor price action. Soybean meal was lower for a sixth consecutive session while soybean oil closed near unchanged on the day.

  • With a mostly dry two-week outlook for nearly the entire Corn Belt, corn and soybean harvest will be able to continue progressing rapidly.

  • Higher world wheat prices lifted US wheat futures higher across the board on Wednesday. Weather worries around the globe have continued to provide support to wheat over the last six weeks.

  • To see the updated US Weeks 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 1-week precipitation forecast for South America, courtesy of NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed, US demand has picked up, and South American weather has been dry. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop could limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers have found value at these multi-year low price levels. Now that managed funds have covered a significant portion of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or continued South American dryness could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields are strong and South American weather turns more seasonal, prices could be at risk of retreating from recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June, we recommended purchasing Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, due to their relative value and the typically high market volatility during that time of year, and we continue to target a value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting at this level will allow you to lock in gains that offset much of the original position’s cost, while holding the remaining 510 calls at or near a net-neutral cost. This strategy should continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence for further sales during an extended rally. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Overall, it was a quiet session in the corn market on Wednesday as Dec corn seems to be pinned to the 420 area on the chart. Slight buying strength in wheat and soybeans helped support corn prices. Trading range from high to low on Dec corn was 3 ½ cents during the session.

  • USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Tuesday morning. Uknown destinations bought 126,000MT (5.0 mb) of U.S. corn for the current marketing year.

  • Weekly US ethanol production continues to show strength. Production last week increased by 23,000 barrels per day to 1.038 million. Current corn usage is ahead of the expected pace for the current marketing year.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for corn export sales from last week are to range from 900,000 – 1.7 MMT of new sales. On last week’s report, corn export sales totaled 1.684 MMT.

  • The USDA will release the next Crop Production and Supply/Demand report on Friday morning. Expectations are for corn yield to decrease slightly to 183.5 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels from last month. With improved demand, and slightly lower potential production, corn carryout for the marketing year is looking to be lowered for the fourth consecutive month to just below the key psychological level of 2.000 billion bushels.

Above: The recent close above the 200-day moving average was met with resistance near 434 and prices retreated. Support below the market could come in between 420 and 416, near the 100-day ma. Below there, further support could be found between 410 and 400.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans managed a positive close today, despite yesterday’s negative price action and continued improvements to Brazil’s rainfall outlook. Technical support levels may have aided today’s small rally. For the November contract, both the 40- and 50-day moving averages are converged around the 1010 level – this was tested yesterday and again today, indicating it may be a key area of support.

  • The decline in the Chinese stock market on Wednesday may cause concerns about their economy, and thus their demand for soybeans. Beijing’s attempt at economic stimulus has reportedly been disappointing, and this could pressure US commodity and equity markets.

  • On a bullish note, the potential for higher biodiesel mandates in Indonesia could lead to a tightening supply of palm oil. This, in turn, could support US soybean oil futures. Currently, Indonesia has a 35% mandated palm oil blend in their biodiesel, but that could be increased to 40%. It is estimated this would lead to 1.5-1.7 mmt additional palm oil use.

  • Brazil weather stays as a focus in the soybean market. Rain chances continue to improve, especially for the middle to last half of October. Brazil soybean planting is 4.5% complete according to Brazil analyst, AgRural. This was up 2% week over week, but down 5.5% from last year. 

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning.  Expectations for news sales last week are to range from 800,000 – 1.7 MMT. Last week’s report posted sales of 1.444 MMt, which was within the range of estimates for the report. Current soybean demand has been good, supporting prices.

Above: The break below 1030 support puts the market at risk of trading lower and testing support between the 50-day moving average and 995. Should this area hold, and prices turn back higher, overhead resistance remains near 1070 and the 100-day moving average.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was again the upside leader today in the grain complex. Initial strength came from a gap higher in Paris milling wheat futures. However, the Matif wheat ended up closing in the red, yet US futures rejected that negativity. Support also came from higher Ukrainian export quotes after the recent attacks on grain vessels.

  • The Russian agriculture ministry is reported to have called for an emergency meeting of grain exporters on Friday. The focus of the meeting will be discussion surrounding potential export restrictions. Part of the reason for this could be dryness in southern Russia, especially with winter grain planting finishing soon.

  • According to the Rosario Grains Exchange, recent rains in key growing regions of Argentina have not been enough to reverse potential losses in many wheat fields. In the last 24 hours Argentina is said to have received 2-10 millimeters of rain, but as stated by the exchange, 25-30 millimeters were needed. In addition, the exchange is estimating their 24/25 wheat production at 20.5 mmt, but has said they will likely cut that estimate due to dryness.

  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports are down 29% year on year, since the season began on July 1. As of October 6, their exports have reached 6.35 mmt compared with 8.9 mmt the year prior. The top importers were north African nations, led by Nigeria at 937,000 mt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through September also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although low Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat production.  July ’25 KC wheat is now about 100 cents off the August low, which represents nearly a 50% retracement back towards last spring’s highs. Considering the extent of this rally and that there may be considerable resistance overhead, we suggest taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on a portion of your anticipated 2025 hard red winter wheat crop, using either July ’25 KC wheat futures, or a July ’25 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The recent rally was capped by resistance around 623. A close back above that level could put the market on track to test the 50% retracement level of 637 back toward the May high. Down below, the market may find trendline support near 581, with further support between 571 and 561.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent breakout was met with resistance just below the 200-day moving average, a close above which could put the market on track to run towards 685. Below the market, initial support remains near the 100-day ma, with trendline support near 610.

Other Charts / Weather

|

10-8 End of Day: Wheat Closes Firm as Corn and Soybeans Slide

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover weakness from the soybean market and sharply lower crude oil kept sellers active in the corn market, which closed at its lowest level in six sessions and toward the bottom of its nearly 9-cent range in the December contract.

  • A quick harvest pace, anticipated rain in Brazil, and sharply lower soybean oil weighed heavily on the soybean market, which closed at the low end of its 28-cent trading range (November). Soybean oil prices closed sharply lower in sympathy with crude oil, which dropped nearly 4.5% on talk of a potential ceasefire in the Middle East. Meanwhile, meal closed with a minor $1 loss

  • The wheat complex closed mid-range and on the positive side of unchanged across all three classes despite losses in corn, soybeans and crude oil. Continued tensions in the Black Sea, a firm close in Matif wheat, and another day of consolidation in the US dollar, all offered support.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 2-week precipitation forecast for South America, courtesy of NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed, US demand has picked up, and South American weather has been dry. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop could limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers have found value at these multi-year low price levels. Now that managed funds have covered a significant portion of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or continued South American dryness could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields are strong and South American weather turns more seasonal, prices could be at risk of retreating from recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June, we recommended purchasing Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, due to their relative value and the typically high market volatility during that time of year, and we continue to target a value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting at this level will allow you to lock in gains that offset much of the original position’s cost, while holding the remaining 510 calls at or near a net-neutral cost. This strategy should continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence for further sales during an extended rally. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong selling in the crude oil market and the soybeans triggered some long liquidation in the corn market on Tuesday. December corn futures posted its lowest close in the past 6 days, and the chart looks challenged technically, which could bring additional negative money flow.

  • The favorable midwestern weather has pushed corn harvest over the past week. On Monday’s Crop Progress report, corn harvest gained 9% to 30% complete. This was 3% above the 5-year average and below analysts’ expectations. The pace of corn harvest has been limited as producers focus on the soybean harvest.

  • Talk of potential ceasefire negotiations between Hezbollah and Israel triggered strong selling in the crude oil market. November crude oil pushed 5% lower during the session, which pressured the overall commodity complex on Tuesday.

  • The USDA will release the next Crop Production and Supply/Demand report on Friday morning. Expectations are for corn yield to decrease slightly to 183.5 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels from last month. With improved demand, and slightly lower potential production, corn carryout for the marketing year is looking to be lowered for the fourth consecutive month to just below the key psychological level of 2.000 billion bushels.

Above: The recent close above the 200-day moving average was met with resistance near 434 and prices retreated. Support below the market could come in between 420 and 416, near the 100-day ma. Below there, further support could be found between 410 and 400.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Above: Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (brown).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly lower for the fifth consecutive day as pressure from rains in Brazil bring funds back to the market as sellers. US harvest pressure has been a bearish factor as well, but trade is likely more focused on Brazilian production. November futures traded down to the 50-day moving average but recovered slightly.

  • Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower, but soybean oil was down sharply as it followed crude oil which is currently down $3.25 per barrel. The decline in crude oil came after Hezbollah allegedly said that it would consider a ceasefire in Israel following months of intense fighting.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that the good to excellent rating in soybeans fell 1 point from last week to 63% but was in line with the trade estimate. 90% of the crop is dropping leaves, compared to 91% a year ago, and 47% of the crop is now harvested.

  • This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 166,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year. This followed a sale yesterday to unknown destinations of 172,500 mt for the 24/25 marketing year.

Above: The break below 1030 support puts the market at risk of trading lower and testing support between the 50-day moving average and 995. Should this area hold, and prices turn back higher, overhead resistance remains near 1070 and the 100-day moving average.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Above: Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat managed to just squeeze out a positive close, rejecting pressure from sharply lower soybeans and energy prices. Another day of consolidation for the US Dollar Index, as well as a higher close for Matif wheat futures lent support to the US market. Tensions in the Black Sea do remain elevated, which could also account for today’s relative strength in wheat as there are reports of a second grain vessel that was targeted by Russian missiles yesterday.

  • According to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, as of October 6, the US winter wheat crop was 51% planted. Both last year’s pace and the 5-year average come in just above that at 52%. Additionally, 25% of the crop is reported to be emerged, which is in line with both last year and the average as well.

  • The EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit is estimating the 2024 Kazakhstan spring wheat crop at 16.7 mmt compared with 11.3 mmt a year ago. Mild temperatures and good rains led to excellent growing conditions. Additionally, Kazakhstan’s ag ministry is expecting a 25 mmt total grain harvest this marketing year, with exports estimated to hit 12 mmt.

  • Ukraine’s grain exports have totaled 11.2 mmt since the export season began on July 1, up 56% year over year compared to 7.2 mmt during the same period last year. Of that total, 6.5 mmt is wheat, marking an 80% year over year increase. Additionally, Ukraine has reportedly planted 2.88 million hectares of winter grain, with 2.62 million hectares being wheat.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through September also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although low Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat production.  July ’25 KC wheat is now about 100 cents off the August low, which represents nearly a 50% retracement back towards last spring’s highs. Considering the extent of this rally and that there may be considerable resistance overhead, we suggest taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on a portion of your anticipated 2025 hard red winter wheat crop, using either July ’25 KC wheat futures, or a July ’25 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The recent rally was capped by resistance around 623. A close back above that level could put the market on track to test the 50% retracement level of 637 back toward the May high. Down below, the market may find trendline support near 581, with further support between 571 and 561.

Above: Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Above: Winter wheat percentage emerged (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and versus last year (brown).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent breakout was met with resistance just below the 200-day moving average, a close above which could put the market on track to run towards 685. Below the market, initial support remains near the 100-day ma, with trendline support near 610.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

10-7 End of Day: Grains Close Mixed on Monday; Corn and Wheat Higher, Beans Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • With support from the higher wheat market and another reported flash sale to Mexico, the corn market shrugged off overnight lows to close at the top end of its trading range.

  • Despite strong weekly export inspections numbers, another flash sale to unknown destinations, and strength in soybean oil, soybeans found themselves weighed down by lower soybean meal, which lost nearly 2% in the December contract as it continued lower on recent weakness.

  • With little fresh news to trade, all three wheat classes closed higher on the day, as support near the 100-day moving average held across all three classes, keeping buyers engaged. Additional war premium may have also been factored in, following reports of a Ukrainian cargo ship being hit by Russian missiles while in port.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 1-week precipitation forecast for South America, courtesy of NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed, US demand has picked up, and South American weather has been dry. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop could limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers have found value at these multi-year low price levels. Now that managed funds have covered a significant portion of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or continued South American dryness could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields are strong and South American weather turns more seasonal, prices could be at risk of retreating from recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June, we recommended purchasing Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, due to their relative value and the typically high market volatility during that time of year. Although we no longer have an upside objective for additional sales for now, we continue to target a value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting at this level will allow you to lock in gains that offset much of the original position’s cost, while holding the remaining 510 calls at or near a net-neutral cost. This strategy should continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence for further sales during an extended rally. Since harvest time is not an advantageous sales window, we will begin evaluating market conditions once it concludes and target areas for additional sales recommendations in late fall or early winter.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished slightly higher to start the week supported by light buying strength in the wheat market and overnight activity in the export market.

  • Mexico purchased 155,000 mt (6.1 mb) for corn in an overnight flash sale. Mexico maintains itself as the top buyer of US corn for the 24/25 market year. This was the third published sale of corn posted in October.

  • Harvest pressure will continue to limit the corn market’s rally potential. Last week, the corn harvest was 21% complete, but expectations are for that number to climb as the weather has been very favorable for harvest progress. The harvest pace will be updated on the USDA Crop Progress report to be released Monday afternoon.

  • The weekly export inspections for corn were within analysts’ expectations. Last week, the US shipped 933,000 mt (36.7 mb) of corn. Early in the market year, exports totaled 168 mb, up 22% from last year and supportive in the corn market.

  • Managed money has covered a large portion of its net short position in the corn market. In last Friday’s Commitment of Traders report, managed funds reduced their net short position to 68,000 contracts, trimming the position by 63,000 contracts as of Oct. 1. Funds were net short 350,000 contracts in early July and have since removed nearly 300,000 of them.

Above: The recent close above the 200-day moving average was met with resistance near 434 and prices retreated. Support below the market could come in between 420 and 416, near the 100-day ma. Below there, further support could be found between 410 and 400.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 63,000 contracts between Sept. 25 – Oct. 1, bringing their total position to a net short 67,699 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. While we don’t currently have a target range for additional sales, because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous prices, we will begin evaluating market conditions once it concludes and will target areas for additional sales recommendations in late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly lower but recovered from earlier morning lows. There has been some pressure lately from an improved Brazilian weather forecast and US harvest pressure, but a flash sale this morning likely added some support. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher with support from higher crude oil.

  • This morning, the USDA reported a private export sale totaling 172,500 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. This may be going to China despite the fact that they have been on their golden week holiday.

  • Today’s export inspections report was solid for soybeans as they came in above the high end of trade estimates. Inspections for soybeans totaled 52.6 mb for the week ending October 3 and put total inspections for 24/25 at 125 mb, down 1% from the previous year. The USDA estimates soybean exports to be up 9% from the previous year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of October 1, funds bought back 40,092 contracts of soybeans, leaving them net short 40,092 contracts. In the past three sessions leading up to today, funds are estimated to have sold 3,500 contracts.

Above: Since rallying above the 50-day moving average, the soybean market has largely traded sideways, between 1030 down below, and 1070 up top. A breakout to the downside could be met with support between the 50-day ma (near 1010) and 995. Conversely, a close above 1070, could be met with psychological resistance near 1100, with further resistance around the 200-day ma, currently near 1140.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 40,092 contracts between Sept. 25 – Oct. 1, bringing their total position to a net short 34,886 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted gains today in all three US classes. The market was aided in part by the US Dollar index taking a breather from the recent strong uptrend. There was not much fresh major news to drive today’s higher trade, which may indicate that speculative buying also played a part.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 13.4 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 316 mb, which is up 35% from last year and running above the USDA’s forecasted pace. Additionally, US 24/25 exports are estimated at 825 mb, which is up 17% from the year prior.

  • Weather-wise, Argentina has some rain in the forecast that should benefit its wheat crop. Elsewhere, Russia and Ukraine remain too dry overall, though a few showers in eastern Ukraine and western Russia have slightly eased drought conditions. Parts of Europe are also too wet, and Hurricane Kirk is headed that way. It will likely be downgraded to a tropical storm by the time it makes landfall but will still bring heavy rain to parts of France and Germany.

  • It was reported today that a Russian missile hit a Ukrainian ship in the port of Pivdennyi over the weekend. While this particular vessel was said to be filled with corn, it still may have affected the wheat market as more war premium was factored in.

  • According to IKAR, Russia’s wheat export price ended last week at $223 per mt, which would be up $1 from the week prior. Additionally, SovEcon reported that Russia shipped 870,000 mt of grain last week compared to 1.3 mmt the week before. Wheat, in particular accounted for 800,000 mt of the total and compares with 1.29 mmt the prior week.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,516 contracts between Sept. 25 – Oct. 1, bringing their total position to a net short 22,953 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through September also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although low Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat production.  July ’25 KC wheat is now about 100 cents off the August low, which represents nearly a 50% retracement back towards last spring’s highs. Considering the extent of this rally and that there may be considerable resistance overhead, we suggest taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on a portion of your anticipated 2025 hard red winter wheat crop, using either July ’25 KC wheat futures, or a July ’25 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The recent rally was capped by resistance around 623. A close back above that level could put the market on track to test the 50% retracement level of 637 back toward the May high. Down below, the market may find trendline support near 581, with further support between 571 and 561.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,676 contracts between Sept. 25 – Oct. 1, bringing their total position to a net short 15,270 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent breakout was met with resistance just below the 200-day moving average, a close above which could put the market on track to run towards 685. Below the market, initial support remains near the 100-day ma, with trendline support near 610.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,910 contracts between Sept. 25 – Oct. 1, bringing their total position to a net short 13,754 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.