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11-1 End of Day: Firm Close on Friday for Corn, as Beans and Wheat Retreat

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn settled near the day’s highs following a day of two-sided trade as the market found support from another large flash sale to Mexico but failed to close above resistance for the fifth consecutive day.

  • The soybean market closed with minor losses after failing to maintain its earlier strength from additional flash sales and sharply higher soybean oil, as weakness in meal weighed on prices.

  • The wheat complex posted minor losses across all three classes following another day of consolidation and choppy trade, with overhead resistance coming from lower Matif wheat and expectations of much needed rain over the weekend.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8-14 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the Seasonal Drought Outlook, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

For much of this fall, corn prices — primarily driven by improved export sales and a swift harvest — have largely traded sideways within a broad 400 – 430 range after rebounding from the August low. With the harvest drawing to a close, the market’s focus will shift toward demand and South American production. While expectations remain for large 2024 supplies, strong export and ethanol demand have brought the USDA’s estimated carryout to a less burdensome level, just below two billion bushels. With the upcoming WASDE report, the market may break out of this range depending on any adjustments the USDA decides to make. An increase in demand could push prices back toward the upper end of the range or higher, while minimal or no changes could allow prices to continue drifting sideways or even lower.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished the session slightly higher as prices consolidated for the fifth consecutive session.  Announced export sales and a strong crude oil market helped support corn futures on the day.  For the week, corn futures managed to trade slightly lower, losing ¾ of a cent in a quiet week with a less than 6 cent trading range from high to low.

  • Mexico stepped in the US corn export market with a relatively large purchase. The USDA announced that Mexico purchased 781,322 mt of corn. The sales were split, with 715,800 mt for this marketing year and 65,532 mt for next year.

  • Corn export sales have remained strong for the first part of the marketing year. Total corn sales commitments for the 24/25 marketing year have reached 1.016 billion bushel in 24/25 and are up 41% from a year ago. This is ahead of the USDA’s projected pace, and the USDA may need to adjust the demand side of the corn balance sheet in future USDA reports.

  • As harvest wraps up, November can historically be a challenging month for corn prices, as producers often need to set prices on remaining bushels. With First Notice Day for the December contract approaching on November 29, producers holding basis contracts or storing commercial bushels will need to make pricing decisions beforehand, which often puts pressure on market prices.

  • The US presidential election on Tuesday, November 5, could bring volatility to the corn market as it positions itself for election results. Additionally, the November WASDE report, with the next round of crop production estimates for the current marketing year, is set for release on Friday, November 8.

Above: Since early September, the corn market has found support near the 400 area while posting a low of 397 on September 12, and a high of 434 ¼ on October 2. A close above this range could put the market on course for a larger move, potentially to the June high near 465, while a close below 397 could put it on track to test support near 385.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After peaking in early October, the soybean market declined as harvest activity and hedge pressure increased rapidly, driven by warm, dry conditions in the US and improving planting conditions in Brazil. With the harvest now in its final stages, we are entering a period when selling opportunities tend to improve as hedge pressure eases, and South American weather becomes a more dominant factor in their growing season. That said, managed funds hold a relatively small net short position, which creates the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions decline or US demand improves, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if South American conditions improve and US demand remains stagnant, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. For those with capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly lower after mixed trade. Prices were initially higher overnight and this morning before fading toward the close, dragged down by falling soybean meal. Early support came from large export sales, while soybean oil continued its trend with a higher close today.

  • This morning, the USDA reported multiple private export flash sales. 132,000 metric tons of soybeans were reported for delivery to China for the 24/25 marketing year. Another 198,000 metric tons were sold for delivery to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year, and 30,000 metric tons of soybean oil was sold for delivery to India for 24/25.

  • For the week, November soybeans lost 5 ¼ cents to 982 ½ while March soybeans lost just ¾ cent to 1008 ¼. December meal lost $10.50 to $295.30, making new contract lows while soybean oil gained 2.15 cents to 46.30 cents.

  • Higher palm oil prices have been the main driver for soybeans and soybean oil recently as energy prices have rebounded. This supports renewable diesel production and has helped world veg oil prices. The downside of this has been that the increase in crush has created an excess of soybean meal.

Above: Since mid-October the soybean market has been largely rangebound between 1018 on the topside and 980 down below. A breakout above 1018 could suggest a rally back toward the September highs, with intermediate resistance near the 100-day moving average. Whereas a close below 980 could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a day of two-sided trade, wheat posted small losses across all three classes. In addition to a sharp rebound in the US Dollar Index today, another lower close for Matif wheat also pressured the complex. Furthermore, widespread rain coverage is expected over the weekend for key US wheat-growing areas, which should help improve conditions.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat harvest is now 7.7% complete as of October 31. Additionally, the exchange left their production estimate unchanged at 18.6 mmt, which would exceed last year’s 15.1 mmt wheat crop.

  • In a report from the European Commission, the estimate for total EU grain production in 24/25 has been reduced from 260.9 mmt to 255.6 mmt. Corn and soft wheat production saw the largest declines, with the latter dropping from 114.6 mmt to 112.6 mmt. Durum wheat production, however, remains unchanged at 7.2 mmt.

  • In June, Turkey implemented a four-month halt on wheat imports. Last month, millers were advised they could import only 15 tons for every 85 tons purchased from the Turkish grain board. However, according to a report by the USDA FAS attaché, Turkey’s import restrictions are likely to continue through year-end, as they work to reduce an overabundance of domestic wheat.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since reaching its recent high in early October, the Chicago wheat market has gradually moved lower as conditions in the Southern Hemisphere improved. While some production concerns in Australia appear to have eased, dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Despite more competitive Russian and Black Sea wheat prices, US export demand remains firm, though these lower prices may still limit US prices. However, any US crop concerns or increased demand could support higher prices. Additionally, the managed funds’ net short position is much smaller than it was in late July, giving them the flexibility to either extend their shorts or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the coming weeks.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The swift turnaround on October 29 suggests initial support below the market may rest near 558. A close below this level could put the market at risk of trading down toward the 521 – 514 support area, with intermediate support possibly around 544. Overhead, resistance may be found near 595 – 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since peaking in early October, the wheat market has gradually declined, influenced by improved crop conditions in the Southern Hemisphere. Production concerns in Australia have eased somewhat, but dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Although Russian and Black Sea wheat prices are more competitive, US export demand remains steady, though lower global prices could still limit US prices. However, potential issues with the US crop or a rise in demand could push prices higher. Additionally, managed funds’ net positions could now be considered mostly neutral, allowing flexibility to either extend short positions or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the weeks ahead.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market’s reversal from the 561 support level could put it on track to test the 593 – 603 resistance area around the 200-day moving average. A break below 561 could find minor support near 555, with major support around the August low of 527.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

After peaking near the 200-day moving average in early October, Minneapolis wheat has been retreating toward its August low. At the same time, managed funds have started rebuilding some of their net short positions. While more competitive Russian export prices continue to limit upward potential, concerns about global wheat supplies persist, potentially increasing opportunities for US exports and driving prices back higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal off the 598 – 595 support level suggests prices could rally back and test the 615 – 624 area. To the downside, a close below 595 could set the market up to break further and test the August low of 563.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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10-31 End of Day: Midwestern Rains Pressure Wheat

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market closed the day fractionally mixed as it consolidated for the fourth consecutive day, with support from another week of solid export sales.

  • Soybean oil continued to be the complex leader today posting a 1.33 cent gain in the December contract which, in addition to strong export sales, carried over to lend support to soybeans. December meal continued its downtrend, settling lower for the eighth consecutive day.

  • Welcomed rains moving across the Midwest, with more in the forecast for this weekend, weighed on the wheat complex today, which closed with moderate losses in all three classes.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, the updated Drought Monitor, and 1-week forecast precipitation for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

For much of this fall, corn prices—primarily driven by improved export sales and a swift harvest—have largely traded sideways within a broad 400 – 430 range after rebounding from the August low. With the harvest drawing to a close, the market’s focus will shift toward demand and South American production. While expectations remain for large 2024 supplies, strong export and ethanol demand have brought the USDA’s estimated carryout to a less burdensome level, just below two billion bushels. With the upcoming WASDE report, the market may break out of this range depending on any adjustments the USDA decides to make. An increase in demand could push prices back toward the upper end of the range or higher, while minimal or no changes could allow prices to continue drifting sideways or even lower.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market ended October on a quiet note, with light selling pressure in the December contract and moderate buying interest in deferred contracts. Support came from strong export sales totals for the third consecutive week.

  • The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning before the main trading session. Last week, new corn sales were reported at 92.2 mb (2.342 mmt) for the current marketing year, which was within expectations and marked the third week in a row of corn sales exceeding 2.0 mmt.

  • The Corn Belt saw beneficial rainfall from Wednesday into Thursday. Drought monitor maps reflect extremely dry conditions, with 81% of corn acres affected by some level of drought—the highest percentage since 2012. Despite the dry fall, there is little correlation between fall drought conditions and harvest potential for the following growing season.

  • The dry conditions have contributed to one of the fastest harvest paces in the past decade. This harvest pressure has and will continue to limit corn prices going into November as producers market or store this year’s harvest.

Above: Since early September, the corn market has found support near the 400 area while posting a low of 397 on September 12, and a high of 434 ¼ on October 2. A close above this range could put the market on course for a larger move, potentially to the June high near 465, while a close below 397 could put it on track to test support near 385.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After peaking in early October, the soybean market declined as harvest activity and hedge pressure increased rapidly, driven by warm, dry conditions in the US and improving planting conditions in Brazil. With the harvest now in its final stages, we are entering a period when selling opportunities tend to improve as hedge pressure eases, and South American weather becomes a more dominant factor in their growing season. That said, managed funds hold a relatively small net short position, which creates the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions decline or US demand improves, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if South American conditions improve and US demand remains stagnant, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed the June sales recommendation triggered by the market’s close below 1180, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the current harvest period to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 could provide a good opportunity. For those with storage or capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Nov ’24. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended higher for the second consecutive day, supported by strong export sales. With today being First Notice Day, the lack of significant deliveries bolstered the November contract. Despite the report of a flash sale, soybean meal continued its downward trend, while soybean oil closed higher.

  • This morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 150,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. There have been multiple flash sales of soybeans recently, but it is unknown whether export demand will maintain at this pace after the election.

  • Today’s export sales report was strong for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 83.5 million bushels of soybean exports for the week ending October 24. This was towards the upper end of trade estimates but down slightly from the previous week. Last week’s export shipments of 89.8 mb were well above the 34.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates.

  • In Brazil, soybean exports are expected to reach 4.58 mmt for October. Weather conditions have become significantly more favorable for planting, allowing progress to catch up quickly from earlier delays. Estimates for total production are as high as 169 mmt.

Above: Since mid-October the soybean market has been largely rangebound between 1018 on the topside and 980 down below. A breakout above 1018 could suggest a rally back toward the September highs, with intermediate resistance near the 100-day moving average. Whereas a close below 980 could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted modest losses across the board today, likely due to storms moving across the central US. Another system is expected to pass through this weekend, further easing drought conditions; however, this data won’t be reflected until next week’s drought monitor is released. Another factor was a lower close in Paris milling wheat futures, which U.S. contracts have been tracking recently.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 15.1 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 9.0 mb fell under the 15.1 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. However, total commitments have reached 496 mb, which is up 19% from last year.

  • According to the USDA, as of October 29, about 62% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, which is an increase of 4% from the week prior. Drought in spring wheat production areas also expanded from 3% from last week to 40%.

  • Russian wheat remains competitively priced in the export market, which may keep a lid on US prices. Reportedly, Russian wheat is being offered at $230 – $235 per metric ton, not only below last week’s $237 but also under the suggested price floor from earlier in the month.

  • Ukraine’s agriculture minister announced that the nation may implement minimum grain export prices starting in December. This move aims to reduce “price distortions” caused by the war with Russia. Originally, the plan was set for August but was delayed due to legislative changes. It will impact wheat, corn, soybeans, sunflower oil, and other commodities.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since reaching its recent high in early October, the Chicago wheat market has gradually moved lower as conditions in the Southern Hemisphere improved. While some production concerns in Australia appear to have eased, dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Despite more competitive Russian and Black Sea wheat prices, US export demand remains firm, though these lower prices may still limit US prices. However, any US crop concerns or increased demand could support higher prices. Additionally, the managed funds’ net short position is much smaller than it was in late July, giving them the flexibility to either extend their shorts or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the coming weeks.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts—after advising to exit the first half back in July—to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The swift turnaround on October 29 suggests initial support below the market may rest near 558. A close below this level could put the market at risk of trading down toward the 521 – 514 support area, with intermediate support possibly around 544. Overhead, resistance may be found near 595 – 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since peaking in early October, the wheat market has gradually declined, influenced by improved crop conditions in the Southern Hemisphere. Production concerns in Australia have eased somewhat, but dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Although Russian and Black Sea wheat prices are more competitive, US export demand remains steady, though lower global prices could still limit US prices. However, potential issues with the US crop or a rise in demand could push prices higher. Additionally, managed funds’ net positions could now be considered mostly neutral, allowing flexibility to either extend short positions or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the weeks ahead.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market’s reversal from the 561 support level could put it on track to test the 593 – 603 resistance area around the 200-day moving average. A break below 561 could find minor support near 555, with major support around the August low of 527.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

After peaking near the 200-day moving average in early October, Minneapolis wheat has been retreating toward its August low. At the same time, managed funds have started rebuilding some of their net short positions. While more competitive Russian export prices continue to limit upward potential, concerns about global wheat supplies persist, potentially increasing opportunities for US exports and driving prices back higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal off the 598 – 595 support level suggests prices could rally back and test the 615 – 624 area. To the downside, a close below 595 could set the market up to break further and test the August low of 563.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-30 End of Day: Dominated by Choppy Trade, Corn Ends Mixed, with Beans and Wheat Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite the report of fresh export sales and solid ethanol production, the corn market failed to gain traction in today’s session as the December contract consolidated for the third consecutive day between overhead resistance at 415 and 410 support.

  • Sharply higher soybean oil, influenced by higher palm and crude oil, along with another flash soybean sale lent support to the soybean market, which reversed yesterday’s losses to close higher.

  • The wheat complex ended the day with small gains across the board following choppy trade on both sides of unchanged, despite expectations of much needed moisture in the southern Plains and lower Matif wheat.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, the 7-day total precipitation and 1 week forecast precipitation for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • December corn traded lower, leading the corn market down for the session. Corn futures struggled to gain support despite buying strength in the soybean and wheat markets on Wednesday. Harvest pressure and the pricing of grain supplies limited the potential for price gains in the corn market.

  • The corn market has consolidated over the past three sessions within a narrow trading range. Prices are being held in check by resistance at 415 and support near 410 in the December contract. A potential bearish flag formation is developing on the chart; if prices break below this level, a test of the 400 price level could be possible.

  • As fresh supplies of harvested corn are moving down the supply chain, the strong basis bid at the Gulf of Mexico has begun to soften, trending lower than last week.

  • A possible new streak of export sales started today with an announced flash sale of corn. Unknown destinations purchased 273,048 mt (10.7 mb) of corn for the current marketing year.

  • Weekly ethanol production remains strong.  For the week ending October 25, it averaged 1.082 million barrels. This was up 0.1% from last week and up 2.9% from last year. Total corn used for ethanol production last week was estimated at 109.17 million bushels, which is ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA marketing year target.

Above: Since early September, the corn market has found support near the 400 area while posting a low of 397 on September 12, and a high of 434 ¼ on October 2. A close above this range could put the market on course for a larger move, potentially to the June high near 465, while a close below 397 could put it on track to test support near 385.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After peaking in early October, the soybean market declined as harvest activity and hedge pressure increased rapidly, driven by warm, dry conditions in the US and improving planting conditions in Brazil. With the harvest now in its final stages, we are entering a period when selling opportunities tend to improve as hedge pressure eases, and South American weather becomes a more dominant factor in their growing season. That said, managed funds hold a relatively small net short position, which creates the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions decline or US demand improves, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if South American conditions improve and US demand remains stagnant, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed the June sales recommendation triggered by the market’s close below 1180, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the current harvest period to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 could provide a good opportunity. For those with storage or capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Nov ’24. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher, breaking a 4-day losing streak as First Notice Day approaches tomorrow and crude oil recovers from its recent sell-off. The fundamental picture remains mostly bearish with ongoing harvests and improved Brazilian weather, but flash sales this morning provided support. Soybean meal closed slightly lower, while soybean oil finished higher.

  • This morning, the USDA reported a private export sale of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year. They also reported a sale totaling 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for 24/25. Export demand for grains has been active ahead of the US election.

  • This week’s export inspections were strong for soybeans, and estimates for tomorrow’s export sales report are also expected to be impressive at 69.8 million bushels. While slightly below the previous week if realized, this figure demonstrates an overall improvement in export demand.

  • In Brazil, soybean exports are expected to reach 4.58 mmt for October. Weather conditions have become significantly more favorable for planting, allowing progress to catch up quickly from earlier delays. Estimates for total production are as high as 169 mmt.

Above: Since mid-October the soybean market has been largely rangebound between 1018 on the topside and 980 down below. A breakout above 1018 could suggest a rally back toward the September highs, with intermediate resistance near the 100-day moving average. Whereas a close below 980 could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat classes traded on both sides of unchanged but still posted small gains for the day. The US Dollar Index was modestly lower at the grain close, easing pressure on wheat prices, though a lower close across the board for Matif contracts offered no support. Additionally, storms moving across the Midwest and parts of the southern Plains may have limited any upward price movement due to the potential for improved crop conditions.

  • SovEcon is reported to have decreased its estimate of Russian 24/25 wheat exports by 1.7 mmt to 45.9 mmt, reportedly due to intervention by Russia’s agriculture ministry. For reference, the USDA currently projects Russian wheat exports at 48 mmt (as of the latest WASDE report).

  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports declined 33% year over year as of October 25. Since the season began on July 1, exports have reached 7.26 mmt, compared to 10.9 mmt for the same period last year.

  • As reported by Interfax, railway operator Rusagrotrans anticipates that Russia’s October wheat exports will reach 5.9 mmt, setting an October record and surpassing last year’s 5.12 mmt. Additionally, they estimate exports for July through October to also be a record at 20.8 mmt and expect November exports to exceed last year’s levels.

  • Daily stochastics for all three wheat classes indicate that their respective December contracts are technically oversold. Furthermore, each shows a potential crossover buy signal in this territory, suggesting that wheat may have found a near-term bottom and could see a larger correction to the upside.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since reaching its recent high in early October, the Chicago wheat market has gradually moved lower as conditions in the Southern Hemisphere improved. While some production concerns in Australia appear to have eased, dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Despite more competitive Russian and Black Sea wheat prices, US export demand remains firm, though these lower prices may still limit US prices. However, any US crop concerns or increased demand could support higher prices. Additionally, the managed funds’ net short position is much smaller than it was in late July, giving them the flexibility to either extend their shorts or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the coming weeks.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts—after advising to exit the first half back in July—to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The swift turnaround on October 29 suggests initial support below the market may rest near 558. A close below this level could put the market at risk of trading down toward the 521 – 514 support area, with intermediate support possibly around 544. Overhead, resistance may be found near 595 – 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since peaking in early October, the wheat market has gradually declined, influenced by improved crop conditions in the Southern Hemisphere. Production concerns in Australia have eased somewhat, but dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Although Russian and Black Sea wheat prices are more competitive, US export demand remains steady, though lower global prices could still limit US prices. However, potential issues with the US crop or a rise in demand could push prices higher. Additionally, managed funds’ net positions could now be considered mostly neutral, allowing flexibility to either extend short positions or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the weeks ahead.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market’s reversal from the 561 support level could put it on track to test the 593 – 603 resistance area around the 200-day moving average. A break below 561 could find minor support near 555, with major support around the August low of 527.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

After peaking near the 200-day moving average in early October, Minneapolis wheat has been retreating toward its August low. At the same time, managed funds have started rebuilding some of their net short positions. While more competitive Russian export prices continue to limit upward potential, concerns about global wheat supplies persist, potentially increasing opportunities for US exports and driving prices back higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal off the 598 – 595 support level suggests prices could rally back and test the 615 – 624 area. To the downside, a close below 595 could set the market up to break further and test the August low of 563.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 7-day total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-29 End of Day: Turnaround Tuesday as Wheat and Corn Close Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • With help from a higher wheat market and fading harvest pressure, December corn held support at the 50-day moving average and recovered most of Monday’s losses.

  • The soybean market continued its slide lower for the third consecutive day as the improved weather and planting pace in South America reduced crop concerns and encouraged sellers.

  • The wheat complex reversed course to close higher on the day, surpassing yesterday’s losses, as initial crop ratings for the season came in at the second-lowest level since 1986, well below expectations.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6-10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 1-week forecast precipitation for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Traders used the strength in the wheat market and a faster-than-anticipated corn harvest to push corn futures slightly higher for the session. The market saw light bull spreading, with strength in the December contract versus deferred contracts.

  • The USDA reported in Monday’s Crop Progress report that 81% of this year’s corn crop has been harvested. This was 1% above expectations and 17% above the 5-year average, as dry weather has allowed for rapid harvest progress.

  • The corn market has been supported by an uptick in demand, with a series of export sales announcements and strong weekly totals. Although the daily run of export sales announcements ended today with no reported sale, the US corn export book at this time is the fourth best in the past decade.

  • The rapid improvement in Brazil’s soybean planting pace, due to improved weather, has eased concerns about a delayed start for the key second-crop corn planting. Traders are now more confident the crop will still hit key weather windows.

Above: Since early September, the corn market has found support near the 400 area while posting a low of 397 on September 12, and a high of 434 ¼ on October 2. A close above this range could put the market on course for a larger move, potentially to the June high near 465, while a close below 397 could put it on track to test support near 385.

Above: Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (brown).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After peaking in early October, the soybean market declined as harvest activity and hedge pressure increased rapidly, driven by warm, dry conditions in the US and improving planting conditions in Brazil. With the harvest now in its final stages, we are entering a period when selling opportunities tend to improve as hedge pressure eases, and South American weather becomes a more dominant factor in their growing season. That said, managed funds hold a relatively small net short position, which creates the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions decline or US demand improves, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if South American conditions improve and US demand remains stagnant, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed the June sales recommendation triggered by the market’s close below 1180, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the current harvest period to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 could provide a good opportunity. For those with storage or capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Nov ’24. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower, as bear spreading pushed front-month contracts lower than deferred months. January futures are now just 5 ½ cents away from their contract low in August, with improved South American weather and planting activity pressuring prices. Soybean meal ended the day lower, while soybean oil was slightly higher.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that the soybean harvest is now 89% complete, slightly below the average trade estimate of 91%. This compares to 81% complete last week and the 5-year average of 78%.

  • Additional selling pressure today likely came from Brazil’s accelerated planting pace, which has now reached over 36%, up 18% from the previous week. Although drought previously delayed progress, planting is now only 4 points behind the pace at this time last year. The USDA estimates Brazilian production at 169 mmt, while CONAB’s estimate stands at 166 mmt.

  • Export demand has been firm ahead of the election, as some countries are likely stocking up before potentially facing tariffs. Yesterday, it was rumored that China purchased between 4 and 6 cargoes of US soybeans and 1 cargo from Brazil for February delivery.

Above: The market reversal on October 24, and subsequent follow through suggests that overhead resistance lies near 1018, and prices may retest support down near 980. A break below this level could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Above: Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat recovered today with double-digit gains in all three US classes. Strength stemmed from further consolidation in the US Dollar Index, a higher close for Matif wheat futures, and, perhaps most impactfully, US winter wheat crop ratings that came in below expectations.

  • According to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, winter wheat was 80% planted as of October 27, compared with 82% last year, and 84% on average. Additionally, 56% of the crop has emerged, which falls below 61% for both last year and the average. Most importantly, the crop was rated just 38% good to excellent and 23% poor to very poor, reflecting worsening drought conditions in key growing areas. The trade had expected a GTE rating closer to 50%, and the actual figure remains well below last year’s 47% GTE rating.

  • According to UkrAgroConsult, Ukraine exported 6.1 mmt of wheat during the July-September timeframe, nearly doubling the amount shipped over the same period last year. Including preliminary data from October, Ukraine has already shipped 50% of their total 24/25 export potential within just four months.

  • In a statement by Egypt’s supply minister, Sherif Farouk, a Russian wheat shipment of 430,000 mt will be delayed from October to November; the deal was reached in September. He did not indicate why the shipment was delayed, and no other details were provided. Egypt is attempting to build its wheat stocks amid a struggling economy and a recent foreign currency crisis.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since reaching its recent high in early October, the Chicago wheat market has gradually moved lower as conditions in the Southern Hemisphere improved. While some production concerns in Australia appear to have eased, dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Despite more competitive Russian and Black Sea wheat prices, US export demand remains firm, though these lower prices may still limit US prices. However, any US crop concerns or increased demand could support higher prices. Additionally, the managed funds’ net short position is much smaller than it was in late July, giving them the flexibility to either extend their shorts or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the coming weeks.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts—after advising to exit the first half back in July—to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The swift turnaround on October 29 suggests initial support below the market may rest near 558. A close below this level could put the market at risk of trading down toward the 521 – 514 support area, with intermediate support possibly around 544. Overhead, initial resistance may be found near the 50-day moving average, before encountering heavier resistance around 595 – 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since peaking in early October, the wheat market has gradually declined, influenced by improved crop conditions in the Southern Hemisphere. Production concerns in Australia have eased somewhat, but dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Although Russian and Black Sea wheat prices are more competitive, US export demand remains steady, though lower global prices could still limit US prices. However, potential issues with the US crop or a rise in demand could push prices higher. Additionally, managed funds’ net positions could now be considered mostly neutral, allowing flexibility to either extend short positions or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the weeks ahead.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market’s reversal from the 561 support level could put it on track to test the 593 – 603 resistance area around the 200-day moving average. A break below 561 could find minor support near 555, with major support around the August low of 527.

Above: Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Above: Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (brown).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

After peaking near the 200-day moving average in early October, Minneapolis wheat has been retreating toward its August low. At the same time, managed funds have started rebuilding some of their net short positions. While more competitive Russian export prices continue to limit upward potential, concerns about global wheat supplies persist, potentially increasing opportunities for US exports and driving prices back higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal off the 598 – 595 support level suggests prices could rally back and test the 615 – 624 area. To the downside, a close below 595 could set the market up to break further and test the August low of 563.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-28 End of Day: Sharply Lower Crude Weighs on Grains to Begin the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite another round of flash sales, the corn market settled lower for a second consecutive day, pressured by sharply lower crude oil, ongoing harvest activity, and improved planting progress in Brazil.

  • Sharply lower soybean oil, driven by steep losses in crude oil and an improved planting pace in Brazil, weighed on the soybean market, which settled just above the day’s lows. While closing lower along with soybeans and bean oil, soybean meal experienced relatively minor losses, settling mid-range.

  • Losses in crude oil and falling Russian export prices weighed on the wheat complex, which settled just above its lows in all three classes following a second day of selling.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6-10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the South American 7-day accumulated precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures fell for a second day as broad selling pressure weighed on grain prices. Sharp declines in the crude oil market and ongoing harvest pressure limited any potential gains in corn to start the week.

  • Weekly export inspections for corn shipments last week came in at 824,000 million metric tons. This was down from 1.001 mmt last week, but within trade expectations. Corn export demand has been good in recent weeks, but corn shipments may be pressured by exporters looking to ship soybeans in this time window, which is the typical pattern.

  • For the ninth consecutive day, the USDA announced two flash exports sales of corn. Japan purchased 124,000 mt (4.9 mb) and Unknown Destinations purchased 120,000 mt (4.7 mb) of corn for the current marketing year.

  • Brazil’s planting pace has picked up as weather conditions have turned more favorable. First crop Brazilian corn was 52% planted versus 53% last year, as reported by AgRural. That first corn crop corn is targeted more for domestic usage, but soybean planting jumped 18% week-over-week, which could mean the exported safrinha (second) corn crop may be back on schedule after soybean harvest this spring.

  • The corn harvest was 65% complete last week, and the market is expecting a jump again on this week’s Crop Progress report. Fresh corn supplies are in the pipeline, and that has limited rally potential in corn futures.

Above: Since early September, the corn market has found support near the 400 area while posting a low of 397 on September 12, and a high of 434 ¼ on October 2. A close above this range could put the market on course for a larger move, potentially to the June high near 465, while a close below 397 could put it on track to test support near 385.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, October 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 15,489 contracts between October 16 – 22, bringing their total position to a net short 71,499 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After peaking in early October, the soybean market declined as harvest activity and hedge pressure increased rapidly, driven by warm, dry conditions in the US and improving planting conditions in Brazil. With the harvest now in its final stages, we are entering a period when selling opportunities tend to improve as hedge pressure eases, and South American weather becomes a more dominant factor in their growing season. That said, managed funds hold a relatively small net short position, which creates the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions decline or US demand improves, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if South American conditions improve and US demand remains stagnant, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed the June sales recommendation triggered by the market’s close below 1180, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the current harvest period to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 could provide a good opportunity. For those with storage or capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Nov ’24. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower, closing near the day’s lows. The biggest bearish factor today was the sharp selloff in crude oil as a result of Israeli retaliation on Iranian military bases instead of oil production facilities over the weekend, which brought December crude oil down over 4 dollars a barrel. Soybean meal only saw minor losses, while soybean oil posted a 146 point loss in the December contract as it followed crude oil.

  • More pressure today has likely come from Brazil’s quickened planting pace which has now progressed to over 36%, up 18% from the previous week. While drought had previously delayed progress, planting is now only 4 points behind this time last year. The USDA estimates Brazilian production at 169 mmt, while CONAB’s estimate stands at 166 mmt.

  • Today’s Export Inspections report was strong for soybeans as export demand remains firm. 2,394k tons of soybeans were inspected for export which was at the upper range of analyst estimates. This was slightly below last week’s inspections but put year-to-date inspections up 2% from last year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds continue to sell soybeans aggressively. As of October 22, funds sold 19,233 contracts of soybeans which left them net short 59,574 contracts. Since that date, fund activity is estimated to have been quiet with 1,000 contracts being bought in the past three days.

Above: The market reversal on October 24, and subsequent follow through suggests that overhead resistance lies near 1018, and prices may retest support down near 980. A break below this level could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, October 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 39,233 contracts between October 16 – 22, bringing their total position to a net short 59,574 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower alongside the rest of the grain complex, pressured by a sharply lower crude oil market. At the time of writing, crude is down well over four dollars per barrel after having gapped lower at the open. This appears to be tied to news that while Israel did indeed retaliate against Iran, they chose to attack military targets as opposed to oil facilities.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections of 9.1 mb brought total 24/25 inspections to 349 mb, up 34% from 262 mb at this time last year. Inspections are currently outpacing the USDA’s forecast, with wheat exports projected at 825 mb, 17% higher than last year.

  • The US ag attaché in Argentina has their estimate of the country’s 24/25 wheat production at 18 mmt, in line with the current USDA forecast. However, their wheat export estimate is slightly higher than the USDA’s, at 12 mmt compared to 11.5 mmt.

  • According to IKAR, Russia’s wheat export price ended last week at $232 per mt, which is down from $234 the week prior. This is also below their ag ministry’s suggested price floor of $240 per mt. Furthermore, SovEcon has reported that Russia shipped 1.02 mmt of grain last week, with wheat accounting for 1.0 mmt of that total.

  • In a report from the Rosario Grains Exchange, Argentina’s wheat exports for the 24/25 season could reach 13.3 mmt, potentially the second highest total on record. They also anticipate a harvest of 19.5 mmt, exceeding both USDA and attaché estimates.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since reaching its recent high in early October, the Chicago wheat market has gradually moved lower as conditions in the Southern Hemisphere improved. While some production concerns in Australia appear to have eased, dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Despite more competitive Russian and Black Sea wheat prices, US export demand remains firm, though these lower prices may still limit US prices. However, any US crop concerns or increased demand could support higher prices. Additionally, the managed funds’ net short position is much smaller than it was in late July, giving them the flexibility to either extend their shorts or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the coming weeks.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts—after advising to exit the first half back in July—to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since hitting resistance near 617, December Chicago wheat has stair-stepped lower to the point of testing the 575 – 560 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of sliding toward the major support area between 521 and 514. Though intermediate support may be found around 544. Meanwhile, initial overhead resistance may lie between 595 and 600.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, October 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,902 contracts between October 16 – 22, bringing their total position to a net short 28,915 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through early October also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although more competitive Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The breach of the 580 – 575 support area puts the market at risk of trading lower towards the September low of 561 1/4, where it could find support. If prices reverse and trade higher, initial resistance might be found between 593 and 603.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, October 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 841 contracts between October 16 – 22, bringing their total position to a net short 5,647 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded up to its 200-day moving average and its highest level since mid-July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 75% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While more competitive export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The breach of 604 support puts the market at risk of declining further and testing the August low of 563. Before reaching that point, prices could find support near 598 and again around 582. If prices turn higher, overhead resistance may be found near 615 – 624, with further resistance near 632.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, October 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,070 contracts between October 16 – 22, bringing their total position to a net short 10,217 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil 7-day total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 7 day total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-25 End of Day: Wheat Leads Corn and Beans Lower to Close the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover weakness from the wheat and soybean markets weighed on corn prices as the market turned sellers after failing to push through overhead resistance.

  • Despite a flash export sale report to China, weakness in soybean products added resistance to soybean prices. Technical selling emerged today following yesterday’s bearish reversal in the November contract.

  • The wheat complex led the grain markets lower, posting double-digit losses across the board. Weakness largely stemmed from talk that Russia is offering wheat below their set floor prices, rain in Argentina, and sharply lower Matif wheat.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 6-10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the South American 7-day precipitation forecast, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market ended the week on a softer note, breaking a 4-day winning streak. Upward momentum appeared to stall as prices struggled to break through resistance, while negative price action in the wheat and soybean markets limited gains. Despite today’s weakness, December corn still closed the week 10 ½ cents higher.

  • For the 8th consecutive day, the USDA announced a flash corn export sale. Mexico purchased 136,000 mt (5.35 mb) of corn for the marketing year. US corn demand should stay strong until the end of the year as export prices for US corn are very competitive.

  • Corn demand has been a bright spot in recent weeks as ethanol grind and export sales have remained consistent. The current pace of corn for ethanol usage is running ahead of the pace needed for the USDA target for the marking year, and 24/25 marketing year corn export sales are the 4th best in the last decade. If the demand tone remains strong, the USDA will likely make adjustments on future Supply/Demand tables, likely reducing the carryout picture.

  • Corn harvest was 65% complete last week, and good progress should be seen again this week. Only limited rainfall touched some parts of the Corn Belt during the week as producers are in the last stages of harvest.

Above: The rally from the 400 support level puts December corn on track towards a potential test of the 428 – 434 resistance area. If the turnaround fails and prices breach the 400 area and close below 397, prices could be at risk of retreating towards the 385 support level.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After peaking in early October, the soybean market declined as harvest activity and hedge pressure increased rapidly, driven by warm, dry conditions in the US and improving planting conditions in Brazil. With the harvest now in its final stages, we are entering a period when selling opportunities tend to improve as hedge pressure eases, and South American weather becomes a more dominant factor in their growing season. That said, managed funds hold a relatively small net short position, which creates the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions decline or US demand improves, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if South American conditions improve and US demand remains stagnant, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed the June sales recommendation triggered by the market’s close below 1180, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the current harvest period to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 could provide a good opportunity. For those with storage or capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Nov ’24. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The soybean market closed lower as technical selling pressured prices following Thursday’s weak close. Additional weakness in both soybean meal and oil, which also settled lower, contributed to the day’s losses.

  • The USDA reported private export sales this morning of 116,000 metric tons of soybeans set for delivery to China in the 24/25 marketing year.

  • Dry fall weather has accelerated harvest progress, but low Mississippi River levels are creating logistical challenges for moving grain to the Gulf. This, along with strong export demand, has kept Gulf basis firm. Additionally, profitable crush margins are supporting basis as facilities work to replenish supplies.

  • Planting conditions in Argentina are looking positive as the recent rainfall is expected to continue into November, according to a meteorologist’s statement to Reuters, which should support normal corn and soybean planting.

Above: The market reversal on October 24, and subsequent follow through suggests that overhead resistance lies near 1018, and prices may retest support down near 980. A break below this level could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was the downside leader in the grain complex today, posting double-digit losses in all three classes. Weakness stemmed from a sharply lower close for Matif wheat futures, recent beneficial rains in Argentina, and talk that Russia continues to offer wheat below this month’s supposed $240 per mt price floor. A rebound in the US dollar and better chances of rain in US winter wheat areas next week may also have played a part in today’s lower trade.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange left its estimate of Argentina’s wheat production unchanged at 19.3 mmt, which is above the USDA’s estimate of 18 mmt. Additionally, the exchange forecasts Argentine wheat exports at 13.3 mmt, compared with 11.5 mmt projected by the USDA. If realized, the 13.3 mmt figure would be the second-largest total on record.

  • According to China’s vice agriculture minister, the nation’s grain harvest this year is expected to surpass 700 mmt for the first time, attributed to higher yields in corn and wheat. As of October 24, 80% of China’s crops have been harvested. In related news, China’s agriculture ministry is outlining plans to develop the rural economy and boost farmers’ incomes as part of ongoing efforts toward self-sufficiency and improved food security.

  • Turkey’s statistics office has released a new estimate for 2024 crop production, forecasting a 5.5% decline in the wheat harvest to 20.8 mmt. Total cereal grain production is expected to fall by 7.1% from the previous year, while vegetable production is anticipated to increase by 6%.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since reaching its recent high in early October, the Chicago wheat market has gradually moved lower as conditions in the Southern Hemisphere improved. While some production concerns in Australia appear to have eased, dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Despite more competitive Russian and Black Sea wheat prices, US export demand remains firm, though these lower prices may still limit US prices. However, any US crop concerns or increased demand could support higher prices. Additionally, the managed funds’ net short position is much smaller than it was in late July, giving them the flexibility to either extend their shorts or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the coming weeks.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts—after advising to exit the first half back in July—to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since hitting resistance near 617, December Chicago wheat has stair-stepped lower to the point of testing the 575 – 560 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of sliding toward the major support area between 521 and 514. Though intermediate support may be found around 544. Meanwhile, initial overhead resistance may lie between 595 and 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through early October also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although more competitive Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The breach of the 580 – 575 support area puts the market at risk of trading lower towards the September low of 561 1/4, where it could find support. If prices reverse and trade higher, initial resistance might be found between 593 and 603.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded up to its 200-day moving average and its highest level since mid-July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 75% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While more competitive export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break below the 100-day moving average suggests that prices could test the 604 support area. A breach of 604 could put the market at risk of trading down toward the August low of 563. Although, support could be found around 598, and again near 582. If prices turn higher, overhead resistance may be around 632, with stronger resistance near 655.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil, N. Argentina 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-24 End of Day: Soybeans Stumble into the Close, Corn and Wheat Hold onto Gains

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Record strong weekly export sales and more daily flash export sales of corn helped keep upward momentum in corn futures as we head toward the end of the week.

  • After strong weekly export sales this morning, soybean futures traded higher before ending the day slightly lower. Soybean oil futures continued higher today while soybean meal futures fell lower for a third straight session.

  • Wheat futures ended the day mostly higher after non-impressive weekly export sales were reported this morning. Weather worries around the globe, as well as in the US Plains, continues to keep support under the wheat complex.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast and the South American 7-day total precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market extended its rally for the fourth consecutive day, with the December contract closing just above the mid-point of the day’s 5 ¾ cent range as strong weekly export sales and another flash sale kept upward momentum in place.

  • This morning the USDA reported weekly export sales as of October 17. New sales for the 24/25 marketing year were strong, coming in above expectations at 141.8 mb (3.603 mmt) Sales for the 25/26 marketing year were near the low end of expectations at 22.8 mb (581,000 mt). The strong combined sales mark the fifth-largest weekly sales total in the last twenty years.

  • Keeping in the theme of strong US corn demand, the USDA announced new private export sales of corn totaling 165,000 mt to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year. This marks the seventh consecutive day with announced flash sales of corn.

  • Basis levels for corn continue to remain firm in the Midwest, reflecting strong demand for fresh supplies at processors and the slowing pace of farmer sales as they remain busy considering harvest weather remains favorable.

  • November options expire on Friday. While corn futures lack a November contract, there is a November options contract tied to December futures, with significant open interest at the 420 strike price. This could lead to added volatility around the 420 level in December futures as options trading wraps up. 

Above: The rally from the 400 support level puts December corn on track towards a potential test of the 428 – 434 resistance area. If the turnaround fails and prices breach the 400 area and close below 397, prices could be at risk of retreating towards the 385 support level.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After peaking in early October, the soybean market declined as harvest activity and hedge pressure increased rapidly, driven by warm, dry conditions in the US and improving planting conditions in Brazil. With the harvest now in its final stages, we are entering a period when selling opportunities tend to improve as hedge pressure eases, and South American weather becomes a more dominant factor in their growing season. That said, managed funds hold a relatively small net short position, which creates the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions decline or US demand improves, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if South American conditions improve and US demand remains stagnant, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed the June sales recommendation triggered by the market’s close below 1180, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the current harvest period to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 could provide a good opportunity. For those with storage or capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Nov ’24. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day after opening significantly higher. The November contract ended the day slightly lower while January was unchanged, and the deferred contracts ended slightly higher. Solid exports this morning pushed prices higher, but they began to slide around midday. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher. This was the lowest close for December meal since August 29.

  • Today’s Export Sales report showed another week of strong sales in soybeans. The USDA reported an increase of 79.1 million bushels of soybean export sales for 24/25 which was at the upper range of analyst expectations. Last week’s export shipments of 89.9 mb were well above the 35.9 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, unknown destinations, and Japan.

  • This morning, private exporters reported a sale of 198,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year. This follows two sales reported yesterday which were for 130,000 mt and 259,000 mt to China and unknown destinations respectively. Good export demand has been a large source of support for soybeans and corn recently.

  • The US ag attaché in Brazil is now estimating that the 24/25 soybean crop in the country will be 161 mmt. This estimate has been increased from 160 mmt in the previous estimate. While planting had a late start in Brazil, the pace has picked back up quickly with steady rains.

Above: The recent downtrend appears to have found support near 980 on the front month chart, and with the market showing signs of being oversold, prices could rebound toward recent highs near 1070. Before that, prices may encounter resistance around 1025. If prices break the 980 support level in the January contract, they could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Except for deferred Kansas City contracts, wheat closed higher across the board today, and this is despite trading both sides of neutral through the session. The US Dollar Index did finally take a breather today, which may have eased some pressure on the wheat market.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 19.6 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 10.2 mb fell under the 14.9 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 825 mb. Wheat sales commitments have reached 481 mb for 25/25 which is up 18% from last year.

  • According to the Rosario Grain Exchange, recent heavy rains in key growing regions of Argentina were a “game changer” for corn and wheat farmers. Reportedly, between 30-90 millimeters of rain was received in the last 24 hours. This is said to be crucial for wheat, which is in the last few weeks of yield development before harvest begins in November.

  • The US ag attaché for Australia has estimated their 24/25 wheat harvest at 28.5 mmt, which falls under the USDA’s forecast of 32 mmt, and is also 1.9 mmt below the 10-year average. Additionally, the attaché has Australian wheat exports at 20 mmt, down from the USDA’s estimate of 25 mmt.

  • According to the USDA, as of October 22, an estimated 58% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions – this is up from 52% last week. In addition, drought in spring wheat areas has also increased from 32% to 37% for the same time period.  

  • Since the season began on July 1, Ukrainian grain exports have totaled 13.3 mmt in the face of an ongoing war. This is up 60% year on year from just 8.3 mmt in the same timeframe last year, according to their ag ministry. Wheat in particular is up 77% year on year with 7.3 mmt of exports. With this said, there is some concern about the winter crops that are currently being planted. According to APK-Inform, almost all seedlings are underdeveloped due to the impacts of drought this summer and fall.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since reaching its recent high in early October, the Chicago wheat market has gradually moved lower as conditions in the Southern Hemisphere improved. While some production concerns in Australia appear to have eased, dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Despite more competitive Russian and Black Sea wheat prices, US export demand remains firm, though these lower prices may still limit US prices. However, any US crop concerns or increased demand could support higher prices. Additionally, the managed funds’ net short position is much smaller than it was in late July, giving them the flexibility to either extend their shorts or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the coming weeks.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts—after advising to exit the first half back in July—to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since hitting resistance near 617, December Chicago wheat has stair-stepped lower to the point of testing the 575 – 560 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of sliding toward the major support area between 521 and 514. Though intermediate support may be found around 544. Meanwhile, initial overhead resistance may lie between 595 and 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through early October also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although more competitive Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The December KC wheat contract appears to have found support in the 580 – 575 area. A break below this level could put the market at risk of trading toward 561 support. Otherwise, should this area of support hold, prices could rebound toward recent highs and test resistance near 623, with initial resistance around 592.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded up to its 200-day moving average and its highest level since mid-July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 75% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While more competitive export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break below the 100-day moving average suggests that prices could drift further toward the 604 support area, with additional support near the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. If prices turn higher, overhead resistance may be around 632, with stronger resistance near 655.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-23 End of Day: Markets Recover from Early Losses to Close Mostly in the Green

ByLisa Heder

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market pressed higher for the third day in a row, driven by strong demand, an improving export basis, and this week’s options expiration, before hitting resistance at the 420 price level in the December contract.

  • Flash export sales of soybeans totaling 389,000 metric tons reported this morning helped drive the soybean market to its third consecutively higher close, despite weakness in both soybean meal and oil.

  • All three classes of wheat found support near yesterday’s lows before rallying back to close mixed. Chicago contracts showed the most strength, closing higher on the day, while KC contracts posted minor losses, and Minneapolis settled mixed, with nearby contracts losing ground to deferreds.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the South American 7-day total precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished higher for the third consecutive day but ran into resistance at the 420 level in December corn. Options expiration, improved demand, and strong gulf basis bids helped support the corn market as we moved into the back half of harvest.

  • On Friday, November grain options expire. Although there is no November futures contract for corn, the market does have short-term November options that expire on Friday. The largest area of open interest for November corn options is at the 420 level, and prices have moved into this range, which could introduce additional volatility as option expiration approaches.

  • The USDA announced a flash export sale of corn this morning. Exporters sold 100,000 mt (3.9 mb) to unknow destinations for the current marketing year. This was the sixth consecutive day of an announced export sale for corn.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. The market is expecting a strong sales total for last week. Expectations are for 2.2 – 3.3 mmt of new sales. A large portion of these sales totals are known given the daily sales announcements by the USDA.

  • Weekly ethanol production remains strong, pushing to 1.081 mb/day last week, up from the week prior and 4% above last year. A total of 108.7 mb of corn was used last week in ethanol production, with the current usage pace ahead of the USDA target for the marketing year.

Above: The rally from the 400 support level puts December corn on track towards a potential test of the 428 – 434 resistance area. If the turnaround fails and prices breach the 400 area and close below 397, prices could be at risk of retreating towards the 385 support level.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After peaking in early October, the soybean market declined as harvest activity and hedge pressure increased rapidly, driven by warm, dry conditions in the US and improving planting conditions in Brazil. With the harvest now in its final stages, we are entering a period when selling opportunities tend to improve as hedge pressure eases, and South American weather becomes a more dominant factor in their growing season. That said, managed funds hold a relatively small net short position, which creates the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions decline or US demand improves, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if South American conditions improve and US demand remains stagnant, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed the June sales recommendation triggered by the market’s close below 1180, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the current harvest period to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 could provide a good opportunity. For those with storage or capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Nov ’24. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher for the third straight session, with the November contract leading the way, while the deferred contracts trailed. As November options expiration approaches on Friday, there is substantial open interest at the $10 strike. However, the November contract has yet to rally above the $10.00 mark, since prices tend to gravitate toward strikes with large open interest.

  • Trading in the soybean complex was interesting today, as both soybean meal and oil traded lower, while soybeans themselves closed higher. Yesterday, soybean oil gained over 3%, providing clear support for soybeans. Since the beginning of the month, soybean meal has moved inversely to soybeans, losing $27.10 so far.

  • This morning, the USDA reported two flash sales by private exporters. The first sale was for 130,000 metric tons of soybeans to be delivered to China during the 24/25 marketing year, while the second was for 259,000 metric tons to unknown destinations, also for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year. Overall, export sales have been supportive over the past week.

  • In Brazil, 18% of the soybean crop is now planted, compared to 8% last week and 30% at this time last year. Most of the country received rain last week, and the forecast for this week predicts 1 to 4 inches of rain in central Brazil. The season had a rocky start due to extremely dry conditions but has since shown signs of recovery.

Above: The recent downtrend appears to have found support near 980 on the front month chart, and with the market showing signs of being oversold, prices could rebound toward recent highs near 1070. Before that, prices may encounter resistance around 1025. If prices break the 980 support level in the January contract, they could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed in mixed fashion with small gains for Chicago, small losses for Kansas City, and was mixed for Minneapolis as the deferred months gained on the front. Matif wheat had a similar story with a 0.25 Euro rally in the December front month, but losses of 0.25 to 0.50 Euros in the deferred contracts. US wheat finished the session relatively strong, considering that the US Dollar Index scored a fresh near-term high above the 104.50 barrier.

  • India’s cash wheat price is said to have hit the equivalent of $9.59 per bushel, which is a new season high. This continues to reinforce the idea that their nation may need to import wheat, which offers a bullish tone to the marketplace.

  • At a BRICS summit, Vladimir Putin reportedly proposed once again the creation of a new grain exchange for these countries. The idea is based on the premise that it would allow for fair price discovery, become a predictable price indicator, and assist in ensuring global food security. Putin added that the exchange could later include other commodities, such as energy and metals.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine, and dryness in the US plains. The nearly 100-cent rally from the August low to October high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While cheaper Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move toward the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts—after advising to exit the first half back in July—to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since hitting resistance near 617, December Chicago wheat has stair-stepped lower to the point of testing the 575 – 560 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of sliding toward the major support area between 521 and 514. Though intermediate support may be found around 544. Meanwhile, initial overhead resistance may lie between 595 and 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through early October also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although more competitive Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The December KC wheat contract appears to have found support in the 580 – 575 area. A break below this level could put the market at risk of trading toward 561 support. Otherwise, should this area of support hold, prices could rebound toward recent highs and test resistance near 623, with initial resistance around 592.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded up to its 200-day moving average and its highest level since mid-July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 75% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While more competitive export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break below the 100-day moving average suggests that prices could drift further toward the 604 support area, with additional support near the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. If prices turn higher, overhead resistance may be around 632, with stronger resistance near 655.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-22 End of Day: Corn and Beans Follow Through on Monday’s Strength, as Wheat Recovers

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Strong demand for corn in the export market, along with bull spreading between the December and March corn contracts and higher soybean prices, kept buyers active in the corn market, which closed higher for the second consecutive day.

  • Led by sharply higher soybean oil and waning hedge pressure as soybean harvest begins to wind down, the soybean market was able to follow through on yesterday’s strength to settle with modest gains.

  • Soybean oil found support from higher palm oil prices, as Indonesia reaffirmed its commitment to implement B50, a 50% biodiesel blend, and estimated its August 2024 palm oil stocks at their lowest level in five years.

  • Lower production estimates for Russia’s 2025 wheat crop helped drive all three classes of the wheat complex to a higher close after briefly trading below their respective 50-day moving averages in the December contracts.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 6-10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the South American 7-day total precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures traded higher for the second consecutive session as money flowed into the buy side of the grain markets on Tuesday. Strong buying through the session in the soybean market, and bull spreading in the corn market helped provide direction for the day.

  • The Gulf cash basis remains strong as exporters are looking for fresh corn and soybean supplies for the export market. The strong basis has been trickling into some local basis bids as the market is trying to move corn supplies. This is not a typical pricing action in heavy supply years, but the speed of harvest may have limited some grain flows.

  • Corn harvest is maintaining its rapid pace. On Monday’s USDA Crop progress report, national corn harvest was 65% complete. This was above market expectations, up 10% from last year’s pace and 13% above the 5-year average. With the recent dry weather, this is the fastest corn harvest since 2012.

  • Mexico stepped back into the US corn export market overnight, with the USDA reporting a flash sale of 359,500 mt (14.2 mb) for the 24/25 market year. Since Oct. 16, Mexico has purchased 1.77 mmt (69.7 mb) of US corn.

  • Brazil’s first corn crop is 48% planted, according to the analyst firm AgRural. This first corn crop is primarily intended for domestic use rather than export. However, a slow soybean planting pace could limit the key safrinha (second) corn crop. Later planting dates for the second crop could push it past critical weather windows, potentially extending the export window for available US supplies.

Above: The rally from the 400 support level puts December corn on track towards a potential test of the 428 – 434 resistance area. If the turnaround fails and prices breach the 400 area and close below 397, prices could be at risk of retreating towards the 385 support level.

Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (brown).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After peaking in early October, the soybean market declined as harvest activity and hedge pressure increased rapidly, driven by warm, dry conditions in the US and improving planting conditions in Brazil. With the harvest now in its final stages, we are entering a period when selling opportunities tend to improve as hedge pressure eases, and South American weather becomes a more dominant factor in their growing season. That said, managed funds hold a relatively small net short position, which creates the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions decline or US demand improves, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if South American conditions improve and US demand remains stagnant, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed the June sales recommendation triggered by the market’s close below 1180, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the current harvest period to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 could provide a good opportunity. For those with storage or capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Nov ’24. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the second consecutive day with support from sharply higher soybean oil. The Chinese economic stimulus plan may be lending some support to soybean futures as trade hopes for stronger exports, and harvest is nearing completion in the US. Soybean meal was weaker today with a lower close.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that the US soybean crop is now 81% harvested, which is the fastest pace at this time of year since 2010. This compares to 67% a week ago and the 5-year average of 67%. As harvest progresses, there have been some concerns regarding yields in the drier areas of the Corn Belt.

  • In Brazil, 18% of the soybean crop is now planted which compares to 8% last week, and 30% the previous year. The majority of the country received rain last week and this week’s forecast has central Brazil receiving between 1 and 4 inches. The country has had a rocky start to the season with extremely dry conditions but has been recovering.

  • In Indonesia, the government has stated they would raise the biofuel mix to 40% and plan to increase palm oil production to keep up with demand. Eventually, the country plans to raise the palm-based biodiesel mix to 50%. The country’s palm oil exports have also risen in August to 2.385m tons from 2.241m in July.

Above: The recent downtrend appears to have found support near 980 on the front month chart, and with the market showing signs of being oversold, prices could rebound toward recent highs near 1070. Before that, prices may encounter resistance around 1025. If prices break the 980 support level in the January contract, they could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite minor losses in Paris milling wheat, all three wheat classes recovered from earlier losses to settle in the green after trading below their respective December contracts’ 50-day moving averages and likely finding buying support from reduced Russian wheat crop projections.

  • The USDA’s weekly crop progress report indicated that 73% of the winter wheat crop is planted as of Sunday, Oct. 20, behind the 5-year average of 76% and the average trade estimate of 77%.

  • The ag consultancy group IKAR issued its first projection for Russia’s 2025 wheat crop, estimating it between 80 and 85 million metric tons. Similarly, the other major Russian ag consultancy SovEcon estimates production at 80.1 mmt. If realized, this would be the smallest Russian crop since the 21/22 season. The reduced projections are largely due to recent dry conditions that delayed planting.

  • In the past 24 hours, moderate rains have provided limited relief to dry areas in central Kansas and southeastern Nebraska, though more rainfall is still needed. Meanwhile, parts of Russia, eastern Ukraine, and western Kazakhstan are also expected to receive light showers, but not enough to significantly alleviate drought conditions.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine, and dryness in the US plains. The nearly 100-cent rally from the August low to October high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While cheaper Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts—after advising to exit the first half back in July—to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since hitting resistance near 617, December Chicago wheat has stair-stepped lower to the point of testing the 575 – 560 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of sliding toward the major support area between 521 and 514. Though intermediate support may be found around 544. Meanwhile, initial overhead resistance may lie between 595 and 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through early October also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although more competitive Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The December KC wheat contract appears to have found support in the 580 – 575 area. A break below this level could put the market at risk of trading toward 561 support. Otherwise, should this area of support hold, prices could rebound toward recent highs and test resistance near 623, with initial resistance around 592.

Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded up to its 200-day moving average and its highest level since mid-July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 75% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While more competitive export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break below the 100-day moving average suggests that prices could drift further toward the 604 support area, with additional support near the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. If prices turn higher, overhead resistance may be around 632, with stronger resistance near 655.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil, N. Argentina 7-day total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 7-day total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-21 End of Day: Corn and Beans Settle Higher, Supported by Fresh Export Sales

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market settled at the upper end of its daily range, though below 410 resistance in the December contract, as it found support from several flash sales, solid export inspections totals and higher soybeans.

  • Continued bull spreading advanced November beans higher versus the January contract and helped support prices into the close along with new export sales, strong export inspections, and higher soybean meal and oil.

  • A surging US dollar and lower than expected wheat export inspections totals weighed heavily on the wheat complex today, which settled mixed on the day after trading higher earlier in the session.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, and the South American 1-week forecast total precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures followed soybeans higher as buyers supported the front month December futures, lifting the entire market higher. Despite today’s gains, the December contract failed to push through resistance at the 410 level.

  • The December-March corn spread has narrowed over the past week, moving from -18 cents under March futures last week to -13 ½ cents today. Bull spreading at harvest suggests an increase in demand for fresh supplies, driven either by a lack of farmer selling, increased export demand, or transportation issues. Mississippi River levels at Memphis have become restrictive, causing the basis for both corn and soybeans to shift to a premium over the Board. The need to transport corn to Gulf export terminals is likely supporting the bull spreading seen in the market.

  • Weekly corn export inspections were within expectations at 39 mb (1.00 mmt) for last week. Corn inspections are off to a strong start for the marketing year with total inspections up 31% over last year.

  • The USDA announced three separate corn flash sales before the session this morning. Mexico purchased 196,926 mt (6.7 mb), South Korea purchased 130,000 mt (5.1 mb) and Unknown purchased 198,192 mt (7.8 mb), all sales were for the 24/25 marketing year.

  • Corn harvest is expected to progress steadily as favorable weather conditions persist. The influx of new bushels into the pipeline will likely limit upside price potential in the corn market. Last week, the US corn harvest was 47% complete, and that figure is likely to increase again this week.

Above: The recent decline in prices from the early October high has been met with support near the psychologically significant 400 area. If this area holds and prices turn higher, the rally may be met with resistance around 415, with more significant resistance towards 428 – 434. Otherwise, a breach of 400 and close below 397 could signal a further decline with support near 385, and again around 372.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 63,259 contracts between Oct. 9 – 15, bringing their total position to a net short 86,988 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After hitting a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market rose steadily, reaching its peak in early October, driven by drier conditions in the US during the later stages of crop development and continued dryness in key soybean-growing regions of South America. During this time, managed funds covered over 80% of their significant short positions, creating the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions worsen, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if conditions improve, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and the market begins to price in any potential South American weather premium.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed the June sales recommendation triggered by the market’s close below 1180, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the current harvest period to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 could provide a good opportunity. For those with storage or capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Nov ’24. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher to start the week with the November contract leading the. November options expire this Friday, which could be impacting futures prices along with the export sales reported this morning. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher as well.

  • This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 116,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. The USDA also reported a sale of 264,000 mt of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.

  • Today’s export inspections report showed strong soybean numbers, totaling 89.4 million bushels for the week ending October 17. This brings total inspections for the 24/25 marketing year to 290 million bushels, down 3% from last year. The USDA projects total soybean exports at 1.850 billion bushels for 24/25, an increase of 9% from the previous year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report indicated that as of Oct. 15th, managed funds were net sellers of 18,543 soybean contracts, which increased their net short position to 40,341 contracts. When soybeans made their recent low in August, funds held a net short position of around 175,000 contracts.

Above: The recent downtrend appears to have found support near 980 on the front month chart, and with the market showing signs of being oversold, prices could rebound toward recent highs near 1070. Before that, prices may encounter resistance around 1025. If prices break the 980 support level in the January contract, they could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 18,543 contracts between Oct. 9 – 15, bringing their total position to a net short 40,341 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Early gains in wheat prices gave way to weakness, leading to a mixed close across the three futures classes. The US Dollar Index surged sharply today, hitting its highest level since early August and added pressure to the wheat market. Moreover, the index has traded above the 200-day moving average for three consecutive sessions, indicating potential for further gains.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections of 9.9 mb bring total 24/25 wheat inspections to 340 mb, which is up 34% from last year and ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace. The USDA is projecting 24/25 exports to rise 17% from last year, reaching 825 mb.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export prices ended last week at $234 per metric ton FOB, a $4 increase from the previous week. However, this remains below the October floor price of $240 set by the Russian Grain Export Union. In related news, SovEcon reported that Russia exported 1.01 mmt of grain last week, with wheat accounting for 940,000 mt, down from 1.19 mmt the previous week.

  • Southern Russia and eastern Ukraine continue to face drought conditions, though recent rains have provided some relief. However, as time progresses, the likelihood of frost and freezing conditions increases. Farmers are hoping for adequate winter precipitation to supply wheat with the necessary moisture as it emerges from dormancy.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine, and dryness in the US plains. The nearly 100-cent rally from the August low to October high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While cheaper Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts—after advising to exit the first half back in July—to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since hitting resistance near 617, December Chicago wheat has stair-stepped lower to the point of testing the 575 – 560 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of sliding toward the major support area between 521 and 514. Though intermediate support may be found around 544. Meanwhile, initial overhead resistance may lie between 595 and 600.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,436 contracts between Oct. 9 – 15, bringing their total position to a net short 26,013 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through early October also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although more competitive Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The December contract’s break below 592 suggests that prices could decline further toward 561, with initial support likely around the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. On the upside, initial resistance is expected near 592, with stronger resistance around 623.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 604 contracts between Oct. 9 – 15, bringing their total position to a net short 6,488 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded up to its 200-day moving average and its highest level since mid-July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 75% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While more competitive export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break below the 100-day moving average suggests that prices could drift further toward the 604 support area, with additional support near the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. If prices turn higher, overhead resistance may be around 632, with stronger resistance near 655.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,514 contracts between Oct. 9 – 15, bringing their total position to a net short 5,147 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.