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9-12 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Higher, Wheat Mixed Following WASDE Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Increases in exports and ethanol use for 23/24 (55 mb) more than offset a marginal bump higher in expected yield for 24/25 (186.3 bpa) bringing US corn ending stocks in at 2.1 bb, down 16 million from last month’s WASDE estimate. Corn closed slightly higher today on the mixed news.

  • A slight increase to old crop soybean crush and a minute reduction in the 24/25 production estimate brought US ending stocks down by 10 mb from last month to 550 mb in today’s WASDE report. Soybeans closed higher on the day leading gains in the grains.

  • World corn ending stocks were lowered by 1.8 mmt from last month to come in at 308.4 mmt. World soybean ending stocks increased by 0.3 mmt to come in at 134.6 mmt.

  • Wheat closed mixed on the day with the winter wheat’s slightly lower and spring wheat higher. The September WASDE report was overall a sleeper for wheat with US and World ending stocks for the 24/25 crop year unchanged from last month’s estimates.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and US Drought Monitor, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed and demand has picked up. While the upcoming harvest of an expectedly large crop may continue to limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low price levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover more of their extensive short positions and rally prices further, however, an extended rally is unlikely until after harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished with marginal gains within a wide trading range as the market digested a mixture of bullish and bearish news in Thursday’s USDA WASDE and Crop Production report. Going into the end of the week, corn futures are currently trading ¼ of a cent lower for the week.

  • The USDA increased the expected corn yield to 183.6 bushels/acre, up 0.5 bushels from the August report. This increased new crop production by nearly 40 million bushels, which was above market expectations

  • The USDA raised old crop demand for both exports and ethanol usage by a total of 55 mb, decreasing the old crop carry in. This combination of increased yield and increased demand lowered projected ending stocks to 2.057 billion bushels, down 16 mb from last month. This was the third consecutive month the USDA has lowered the carry out projection. The 2.057 bb carry out was slightly above market expectations, and keeps ending stocks heavy with a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.7%

  • Weekly corn export sales were disappointing this morning as new sales totaled 667,000 MT (26.2 mb), below the low end of analyst expectations. Total exports for the concluded 2023-24 marketing year closed up 38% from last year.

Above: After posting a bearish reversal on September 6, the corn market has remained relatively stable. Overhead resistance remains around 416, a close above which could set prices up to rally toward the 430 area. On the downside, support could be found near the 50-day moving average, and again near 385.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has steadily declined due to sluggish demand for the new crop, favorable growing conditions, and expectations of a large upcoming harvest. Weather forecasts have also generally remained supportive of the crop, while the market has factored in the likelihood of higher yields. With the weather turning drier as the crop enters its final development, the funds have covered some of their extensive short positions and rallied prices. While the market still anticipates a large crop at harvest, which could ultimately weigh on prices, should yields be less than expected, the recent pick up in demand could spur more short covering by the funds.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher following a slightly bullish WASDE report today. Little was changed, but it was expected that yield estimates would be increased, and they were not. Export sales were solid which was supportive as China has stepped up its purchases of new crop soybeans. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher as well.

  • Today’s WASDE report featured few changes for soybeans, but trade reacted positively as expectations were for a more bearish report. Yields were left unchanged from last month’s report at 53.2 bpa but ending stocks for 23/24 were lowered by 5 mb to 340 mb and for 24/25, ending stocks were lowered by 10 mb to 550 mb as a result of demand increases. Production was estimated at 4.586 bb.

  • With this USDA report now out of the way, focus will be on the progress of US harvest, but another big factor to watch is Brazilian weather. Key growing areas in the country have been very dry which has prevented early planting. Rain showers are forecast to pass through the areas in need next week, but if rainfall totals end up being lighter than expected, soybeans could very well rally.

  • Demand has been strong lately with profitable crush margins driving domestic demand. The USDA estimated that the value of crushed soybeans were around $13.54 per bushel in Illinois as of last Friday. Chinese purchases of new crop soybeans have been driving export demand as well as evidenced by today’s WASDE and export sales report.

  • Today’s Export Sales report saw soybean exports at 54 mb for 24/25 and were in line with the average trade estimates. Soybean shipments are down 23% from last year and commitments are at their lowest levels in 5 years.

Above: After entering the 1005 – 1040 resistance area, November soybeans posted a bearish key reversal which remains intact, suggesting prices could erode further. Below the market, support remains between 960 and 955, with key support near the August low of 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed in mixed fashion, with small losses in Chicago and Kansas City, but modest gains for Minneapolis. A lower close for Paris milling wheat futures and not much excitement on the USDA report may have contributed to the relatively weak close for US futures.

  • All eyes were on today’s WASDE report, which turned out to be relatively neutral for wheat. The 24/25 production number was unchanged at 1.982 bb which was expected. The next production estimate will be on the September 30 Small Grains Summary report. US 24/25 wheat carryout was kept unchanged at 828 mb, but the trade was looking for an 8 mb drop. Global 23/24 wheat ending stocks increased from 262.4 to 265.3 mmt, while 24/25 was kept steady at 256.6 mmt.

  • In addition to today’s report, traders also received weekly export sales, which totaled 17.4 mb for 24/25. Last week’s shipments at 19.9 mb surpassed the 15.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal and sales commitments at 396 mb are up 30% from a year ago. Exports were kept unchanged today at 825 mb.

  • A Russian missile is said to have hit a Ukrainian vessel carrying wheat and en route to Egypt. No casualties were reported, but the extent of damage is currently unknown. This may have factored some war premium into the market earlier this morning. In related news, Egypt has reportedly purchased 430,000 mt of wheat from Russia in a private deal, at $235 per mt CNF.

  • According to the Rosario Grain Exchange, the Pampas region of Argentina is being affected by water shortages in the north and west areas. This is also expected to worsen, which may take a toll on the wheat crop. The previous production estimate of 20.5 mmt is now uncertain, with 30% of the crop reported to be in poor to regular condition.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor in the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger an extended short-covering rally by managed funds.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts—after advising to exit the first half back in July—to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s close above the 50-day moving average set it up for a potential challenge of the 560 – 570 resistance area, and a rally towards 590 – 595. Should prices reverse and close back below the 50-day moving average, they could again find support near 514, with further support around 500 and 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position could trigger an extended short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Earlier this summer we recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of those remaining puts. Looking ahead, our current upside strategy is to target the 640 – 670 range, also in the July ’25, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December KC wheat appears to have encountered resistance just below 600, a close above which could put the market in position to test the 605 – 610 resistance area. If the market turns lower, initial support remains near the 50-day moving average, with further support near the recent 527 ¼ low.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering an extended short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. While we are at the time of year when market lows often occur, we will consider posting upside targets in late September or early October when market conditions often become more advantageous, and harvest is mostly behind us.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The 617 – 637 resistance area appears to remain intact. A close above this area could put the market in position for a run toward 685, with potential resistance near the 100 and 200-day moving averages before that. To the downside, a break below the 50-day moving average could put the market at risk of sliding towards 560.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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9-11 End of Day: Markets Higher on Position Squaring Ahead of Thursday’s USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • With little fresh news, the corn market settled fractionally higher after choppy, two-sided trade in a relatively tight 6 ¼-cent range in the December contract, as traders prepped for tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report.

  • November soybeans closed mid-range and higher on the day after trading both sides of unchanged as the market found support near yesterday’s lows and traders squared positions ahead of tomorrow’s report. December soybean meal found support near its 50-day moving average and closed higher on the day, while December bean oil encountered selling at the day’s highs near the 20-day moving average and closed lower.

  • Technical momentum and short covering ahead of the USDA report kept buyers active across the wheat complex, driving higher closes in all three classes. Additional support also came from carryover strength in Matif wheat.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and 1 week precipitation forecast for South America, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed and demand has picked up. While the upcoming harvest of an expectedly large crop may continue to limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low price levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover more of their extensive short positions and rally prices further, however, an extended rally is unlikely until after harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw choppy 2-sided trade as the market squared positions before tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report. Grain markets in general saw mild buying strength during the session.

  • Thursday the USDA will release the next WASDE and Crop Production reports. Expectations are for US corn yield to be lowered by 0.4 of a bushel to 182.7 bu. per acre reflecting the variability in this year’s corn crop. Regardless, this is still a record for US corn yield. Ending stocks for the 24/25 marketing year are expected to be 2.033 billion bushels, still a large overall supply picture.

  • Weekly ethanol production improved to 1.080 million barrels per day last week, up 4% over last year. The strong usage of corn in ethanol production should merit a raise of old crop corn usage for ethanol in Thursday’s USDA report. The USDA is targeting 24/25 marketing year ethanol usage to be at 5.450 billion bushels.

  • The USDA will also release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations are for corn sales to range from 700,000 – 1.6 mmt for the week. New crop sales last week reached 1.822 bb.

  • The Mississippi River levels at Memphis have dropped to record low levels, limiting barge traffic on the river. The increased freight cost will weigh on corn exports as US corn prices are rising versus global grain competition. In addition, near-term gulf movement could be limited by the impacts of Hurricane Francine making landfall in the Louisiana area today.

Above: After posting a bearish reversal on September 6, the corn market has remained relatively stable. Overhead resistance remains around 416, a close above which could set prices up to rally toward the 430 area. On the downside, support could be found near the 50-day moving average, and again near 385.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has steadily declined due to sluggish demand for the new crop, favorable growing conditions, and expectations of a large upcoming harvest. Weather forecasts have also generally remained supportive of the crop, while the market has factored in the likelihood of higher yields. With the weather turning drier as the crop enters its final development, the funds have covered some of their extensive short positions and rallied prices. While the market still anticipates a large crop at harvest, which could ultimately weigh on prices, should yields be less than expected, the recent pick up in demand could spur more short covering by the funds.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher but have been in a steady downward trend since last Friday when prices broke to the downside. With the results of tomorrow’s WASDE report uncertain, funds are likely buying back a portion of their short position. Soybean meal ended the day higher, while soybean oil was lower despite higher crude and palm oil.

  • Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report see the 23/24 soybean ending stocks falling to 343 mb from 345 mb last month, and 24/25 ending stocks increasing to 568 mb from 560 mb due to an expected increase in yields. The average yield estimate for the report is 53.3 bpa with the high end of the estimates at 54.9 bpa. Last month’s estimate was at 53.2 bpa. World ending stocks are expected to be virtually unchanged to slightly lower at 134 mmt.

  • In Brazil, on top of issues already being caused by the ongoing drought, fires have now burned the protective straw that is used by soybean farmers to protect fields from heat. The window for early planting is ending, and now it seems like the typical planting pace may be pushed back which could be supportive to prices.

  • After crude oil futures lost nearly 3 dollars a barrel yesterday, they recovered slightly today and are currently trading $1.50 higher. Yesterday’s losses came from OPEC stating that it was lowering its demand forecast for the second time in two months. Unfortunately, today’s rebound did not translate to support for soybean oil.

Above: After entering the 1005 – 1040 resistance area, November soybeans posted a bearish key reversal which remains intact, suggesting prices could erode further. Below the market, support remains between 960 and 955, with key support near the August low of 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted gains across all three classes, alongside Matif wheat futures. This marks the third consecutive higher close for the December Chicago contract, likely driven by upward technical momentum and short covering ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report, as there is little fresh news directly impacting wheat today.

  • The average pre-report estimate for US 24/25 wheat ending stocks in tomorrow’s WASDE report is 820 mb, down 8 mb from the August forecast. World ending stocks for 23/24 are expected to show a small increase from 262.4 mmt to 262.5 mmt, while the 24/25 world carryout is anticipated to drop to 255.8 mmt from 256.6 mmt in last month’s report.

  • The USDA is not expected to revise its estimate of US 2024 wheat production, which currently stands at 1.982 bb. An updated estimate will be released on September 30 in the Small Grains Summary report. If there are any significant changes in tomorrow’s wheat numbers, they may come in the form of an upward revision to exports; current sales are up 31% from last year.

  • According to the Ukrainian agricultural ministry, the nation’s grain exports as of September 11 have totaled 8.2 mmt, well above the 5.4 mmt for the same period last year. Wheat exports account for 4.3 mmt of this total, compared to 2.5 mmt last year.

  • A month ago, the USDA approved HB4 wheat, a GMO variety more resistant to drought. The CEO of Bioceres, the Argentinian biotech company that developed this variety, recently stated it will take two years before marketing can begin in the US. The HB4 variety has already been approved in Argentina and Brazil, but securing approval from countries that import US wheat will be critical.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor in the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger an extended short-covering rally by managed funds.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts—after advising to exit the first half back in July—to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s close above the 50-day moving average set it up for a potential challenge of the 560 – 570 resistance area, and a rally towards 590 – 595. Should prices reverse and close back below the 50-day moving average, they could again find support near 514, with further support around 500 and 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position could trigger an extended short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Earlier this summer we recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of those remaining puts. Looking ahead, our current upside strategy is to target the 640 – 670 range, also in the July ’25, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December KC wheat appears to have encountered resistance just below 600, a close above which could put the market in position to test the 605 – 610 resistance area. If the market turns lower, initial support remains near the 50-day moving average, with further support near the recent 527 ¼ low.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering an extended short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. While we are at the time of year when market lows often occur, we will consider posting upside targets in late September or early October when market conditions often become more advantageous, and harvest is mostly behind us.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The 617 – 637 resistance area appears to remain intact. A close above this area could put the market in position for a run toward 685, with potential resistance near the 100 and 200-day moving averages before that. To the downside, a break below the 50-day moving average could put the market at risk of sliding towards 560.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil, N. Argentina 1 week forecast precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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9-10 End of Day: Bears Resume Control in Corn and Soybeans

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Sharply lower soybeans, logistics concerns on the Mississippi River, and the onset of harvest all brought the sellers back into the corn market. While December corn lost ground during the session, yesterday’s low and moving average support held just below the market.

  • Weakness in the soybean products, solid, unchanged good to excellent crop ratings, and lower crude oil pressured the soybean market lower as it corrects from overbought conditions.

  • Potential short covering ahead of Thursday’s WASDE report, lower Russian wheat production estimates, and anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts lent support to the wheat complex. Despite the negativity in neighboring corn and soybeans, all three classes of wheat closed higher on the day.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and 1 week precipitation anomaly forecast for South America, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed and demand has picked up. While the upcoming harvest of an expectedly large crop may continue to limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low price levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover more of their extensive short positions and rally prices further, however, an extended rally is unlikely until after harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Building harvest pressure and logistical concerns that could be a concern brought sellers back into the corn market today. Despite wheat futures trading higher, strong selling pressure in the soybean market helped limit any potential gains in corn futures.

  • USDA released weekly crop ratings on Monday afternoon. The current crop is still rated 64% good to excellent, steady with last week. In maturity, 74% of the crop is dented, 29% considered mature. Early harvest has begun in southern growing regions, and 5% of the crop has been harvested, slightly ahead of the 5-year average at 3%.

  • The Mississippi River levels at Memphis have dropped to record low levels, limiting barge traffic on the river. The increased freight cost will weigh on corn exports as US corn prices are rising versus global grain competition. In addition, limited river movement may cause a backlog of freshly harvested corn, impacting the cash market as harvest picks up speed.

  • Thursday the USDA will release the next WASDE and Crop Production report. Expectations are for US corn yield to be lowered by 0.4 of a bushel to 182.7 bu. per acre reflecting the variability in this year’s corn crop. Regardless, this is still a record for US corn yield.

Above: Since mid-August prices have largely been rangebound between 400 and 390. A close above the 400 – 414 resistance area could set prices up to rally toward the 430 area. Should they break and close below 385 support, they may be at risk of sliding towards the 372 support level.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Above: Corn percent mature (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has steadily declined due to sluggish demand for the new crop, favorable growing conditions, and expectations of a large upcoming harvest. Weather forecasts have also generally remained supportive of the crop, while the market has factored in the likelihood of higher yields. With the weather turning drier as the crop enters its final development, the funds have covered some of their extensive short positions and rallied prices. While the market still anticipates a large crop at harvest, which could ultimately weigh on prices, should yields be less than expected, the recent pick up in demand could spur more short covering by the funds.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower, taking out all of yesterday’s gains as pressure from crude oil and a Crop Progress report that showed high crop ratings pressured the market. Both soybean meal and oil were sharply lower as well with soybean oil in particular taking a bigger hit due to the drop in crude.

  • Today, crude oil fell by nearly $3.00 a barrel and last traded at $66.00 per barrel, the lowest level since July of 2023. This came after OPEC stated that it was lowering its demand forecast for the second time in two months. They expect demand to grow by 2 million bpd, which is 80,000 bpd slower than the previous forecast. The slowdown in demand is reportedly due to lower Chinese consumption.

  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed good to excellent ratings for soybeans unchanged from last week at 65%. Trade was expecting ratings to decline by 2 points to 63% on account of the recent dry stretch. 25% of the crop was dropping leaves which compares to 13% a week ago and the 5-year average of 21%.

  • This Thursday, the USDA will release its Supply and Demand report, and estimates are calling for ending stocks to be relatively unchanged, but the average yield is expected to rise slightly with the average trade guess at 53.3 bpa which would compare to last month’s guess of 53.0 bpa.

Above: The recent rally has brought November soybeans into the 1005 – 1040 resistance area. A close above this range could set the market up for a rally toward the July high of 1082 ¼. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Above: Soybeans percent dropping leaves (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three wheat classes posted gains, even as corn closed lower and soybeans declined sharply. Crude oil also saw a significant drop after OPEC cut its demand forecast for the second consecutive month. However, wheat managed to defy this negative sentiment, likely supported by reports of lower Russian yields and anticipation of a possible Fed rate cut next week, which could weaken the US Dollar. Additionally, some short covering may be occurring ahead of Thursday’s WASDE report.

  • Yesterday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report showed that 85% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested, slightly ahead of both last year and the 5-year average of 83%. The report also noted that 6% of the winter wheat crop has been planted, matching the average and up 1% from the same time last year. Meanwhile, a tropical storm in the Gulf is expected to make landfall tomorrow evening, which could bring heavy rains and delay SRW crop planting in some areas.

  • IKAR has reportedly reduced their estimate of the Russian wheat crop by 1.6 mmt to 82.2 mmt. Adverse weather in Volga, Urals, and Siberia is cited as the reason for the decline. Corn production was also cut to the lowest level since 2018. Additionally, their Russian wheat export forecast was also dropped by 0.5 mmt to 44 mmt.

  • Despite high import prices, Brazil is reportedly taking in more wheat. According to data from Secex, 2024 wheat imports from January to August reached 4.556 mmt, which is the largest total since 2020 and is also 9% above 2023. Additional data from CONAB suggest that 11.6% of Brazil’s wheat crop has been harvested as of last week.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor in the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger an extended short-covering rally by managed funds.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. Since posting the recent low, July ’25 Chicago wheat prices have rallied about 50 cents and have entered the congestion and resistance area from early July. Considering there may be significant resistance overhead in this area, we recommend taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on a portion of your anticipated 2025 soft red winter wheat crop, using either July ’25 Chicago wheat futures, or a July ’25 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s close above the 50-day moving average set it up for a potential challenge of the 560 – 570 resistance area, and a rally towards 590 – 595. Should prices reverse and close back below the 50-day moving average, they could again find support near 514, with further support around 500 and 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position could trigger an extended short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 640 – 670 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December KC wheat appears to have encountered resistance just below 600, close above which could put the market in position to test the 605 – 610 resistance area. If the market turns lower, initial support remains near the 50-day moving average, with further support near the recent 527 ¼ low.

Above: Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering an extended short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The 617 – 637 resistance area appears to remain intact. A close above this area could put the market in position for a run toward 685, with potential resistance near the 100 and 200-day moving averages before that. To the downside, a break below the 50-day moving average could put the market at risk of sliding towards 560.

Above: Spring wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil, N. Argentina 1 week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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9-9 End of Day: Corn and Beans Recover Some of Friday’s Losses; Wheat Settles Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Support from neighboring soybeans and outside markets helped the corn market fend off lower prices following Friday’s weakness, as traders monitor the maturing US crop and the warm, dry conditions in South America.

  • With warm weather pushing soybeans toward maturity and another flash sale of 132,000 mt sold to China, the soybean market was able to overcome Friday’s weakness and close in positive territory to begin the week. While meal settled mostly higher and bean oil closed sharply higher, December Board crush margins lost 2 ¼ cents, though still remained strong at 142 ¼ cents.

  • The wheat complex posted a mixed close with the Chicago wheat contracts showing the most strength, while the Minneapolis contracts were pressured by a Stats Canada report showing sharply higher Canadian wheat stocks. KC futures failed to find support with Chicago and closed mid-range with minor losses.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation anomaly forecast, and 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed and demand has picked up. While the upcoming harvest of an expectedly large crop may continue to limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low price levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover more of their extensive short positions and rally prices further, however, an extended rally is unlikely until after harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strength in the soybean market and outside markets help support the corn market to start the week. Prices were looking for direction after last Friday’s difficult close but found price consolidation.

  • The USDA released weekly export inspections during the session on Monday. Last week, US exporters shipped 32.9 mb (836,000 mt) of corn on the export market. This was down from last week’s totals. Even though we are only 2 weeks into the marketing year, export inspections for 24/25 are running 24% behind the start of last year.

  • Brazil is starting planting of the 24/25 first crop of corn. Estimates are that 15% of the crop is planted, but concerns regarding dry weather may limit that number going forward.           

  • The USDA will release crop ratings this afternoon. For corn, weather is not a major concern of the market with harvest around the corner, but the market will be watching maturity ratings. Harvest is expected to be 4% complete, as early harvest in southern states is picking up.

  • The market may stay choppy this week looking towards Thursday’s USDA Crop Production report. The report will provide the market with its next snapshot of USDA projections for crop size and representative demand targets.

Above: Since mid-August prices have largely been rangebound between 400 and 390. A close above the 400 – 414 resistance area could set prices up to rally toward the 430 area. Should they break and close below 385 support, they may be at risk of sliding towards the 372 support level.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, September 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 65,697 contracts between August 28 – September 3, bringing their total position to a net short 176,211 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has steadily declined due to sluggish demand for the new crop, favorable growing conditions, and expectations of a large upcoming harvest. Weather forecasts have also generally remained supportive of the crop, while the market has factored in the likelihood of higher yields. With the weather turning drier as the crop enters its final development, the funds have covered some of their extensive short positions and rallied prices. While the market still anticipates a large crop at harvest, which could ultimately weigh on prices, should yields be less than expected, the recent pick up in demand could spur more short covering by the funds.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher taking back a good chunk of Friday’s losses. Dry weather in the US has been supportive along with concerns over a dry Brazilian forecast that could delay planting. A flash sale was reported this morning and export sales have strengthened recently which could account for the 63-cent rally off the lows in the November contract.

  • This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year. This follows multiple sales reported last week to China and confirmed some rumors floating around that China was looking to make large purchases of US soybeans.

  • Although it’s early to focus on Brazilian weather, the country has experienced very dry conditions, preventing many areas from starting early planting. With soil moisture already low, seeds planted in extremely dry conditions without rain in the forecast face significant risk. If the dry weather continues and planting is delayed further, a larger rally in soybean prices could follow.

  • Today’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections total 13 mb, which was on the lower end of trade estimates and put total inspections down 30% from the previous year for 23/24. The USDA is estimating soybean exports at 1.850 bb for 24/25, which would be up 9% from the previous year.

Above: The recent rally has brought November soybeans into the 1005 – 1040 resistance area. A close above this range could set the market up for a rally toward the July high of 1082 ¼. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, September 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 22,455 contracts between August 28 – September 3, bringing their total position to a net short 154,096 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Chicago wheat futures overcame early weakness to close with small gains. However, Kansas City and Minneapolis futures were unable to follow suit, with both posting losses. Matif wheat futures also closed slightly lower, adding additional pressure. Minneapolis futures, in particular, reacted negatively to Stats Canada’s all-wheat ending stocks report, which came in at 4.6 mmt for 23/24, well above last month’s USDA estimate of only 1.8 mmt.

  • A general lack of fresh news has not provided much excitement in the marketplace for wheat. However, it is likely that the Federal Reserve will issue a rate cut next week that would pressure the US Dollar and be supportive to wheat.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 21.6 mb bring the 24/25 total inspections to 233 mb, which is up 34% from a year ago and inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace. Additionally, 24/25 exports are estimated at 825 mb, 17% above the previous year.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat prices declined $1 from last week to $215 per mt. There is some conflicting information, however, as SovEcon reports increases to between $218 and $221 per mt. Either way, this remains cheap to global importers and continues to limit upside potential for wheat prices.

  • According to StoneX, Brazil’s 24/25 wheat crop is estimated at 8.09 mmt, which is a 4% decline from their previous estimate. However, they also raised their Brazil wheat export forecast from 1.76 to 2.15 mmt.

  • Egypt’s supply minister has reportedly said that their tender for 3.8 mmt of wheat is still valid and they plan to import that amount. Previously they purchased around 300,000 mt of wheat, so they are still looking for 3.5 mmt to fulfill the remainder.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor in the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger an extended short-covering rally by managed funds.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. Since posting the recent low, July ’25 Chicago wheat prices have rallied about 50 cents and have entered the congestion and resistance area from early July. Considering there may be significant resistance overhead in this area, we recommend taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on a portion of your anticipated 2025 soft red winter wheat crop, using either July ’25 Chicago wheat futures, or a July ’25 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s close above the 50-day moving average set it up for a potential challenge of the 560 – 570 resistance area, and a rally towards 590 – 595. Should prices reverse and close back below the 50-day moving average, they could again find support near 514, with further support around 500 and 488.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, September 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 13,578 contracts between August 28 – September 3, bringing their total position to a net short 42,624 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position could trigger an extended short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 640 – 670 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December KC wheat appears to have encountered resistance just below 600, close above which could put the market in position to test the 605 – 610 resistance area. If the market turns lower, initial support remains near the 50-day moving average, with further support near the recent 527 ¼ low.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, September 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,765 contracts between August 28 – September 3, bringing their total position to a net short 27,237 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering an extended short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The 617 – 637 resistance area appears to remain intact. A close above this area could put the market in position for a run toward 685, with potential resistance near the 100 and 200-day moving averages before that. To the downside, a break below the 50-day moving average could put the market at risk of sliding towards 560.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, September 3 Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,300 contracts between August 28 – September 3, bringing their total position to a net short 24,948 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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9-6 End of Day: Grains Backtrack Friday After Strong Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After starting Friday higher on higher-than-expected weekly new crop export sales, corn futures were dragged lower to end the session closing back near the 50-day moving average on December futures. While the short-term trend remains higher, Friday’s price action is unimpressive to corn bulls heading into the weekend.

  • Soybean futures stumbled into the weekend after poor US economic data, giving back a majority of the gains accumulated during the past three trading sessions. Brazilian weather as well as US export news will continue to be most watched by the trade in the weeks to come with US harvest fast approaching.   

  • All three wheat classes moved in unison lower on Friday but still managed to close higher on the week. Today’s price action was not shocking given daily indictors were stretched to the upside heading into the end of the week.

  • To see the updated Brazil 7-day precipitation anomaly forecast, and weeks 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed and demand has picked up. While the upcoming harvest of an expectedly large crop may continue to limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low price levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover more of their extensive short positions and rally prices further, however, an extended rally is unlikely until after harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Concerns regarding the general US economy after a disappointing jobs report, and downward revisions in previous job creations number triggered a risk off mindset across a majority of the markets. This negative tone spilled over into the corn market, putting a potential cap on the most recent rally.

  • Dec corn futures finished 5 ¼ cents high on the week, but resistance at the $4.11 area held, and the weak price action on the day formed a bearish reversal on the daily charts. The key will likely be the price action next week.

  • The USDA released the weekly export sales report this morning. For the last week of the marketing year, old crop corn saw net cancelations of 173,000 MT (6.8 mb) but new crop sales were strong at 1.843 MMT (71.7 mb). Some of the activity was rolling old crop sales into the new marketing year. The last two weeks on new crop corn sales have been above market expectations. Mexico continues to be the largest buyer of US corn.

  • Logistics may become an issue in the corn market as harvest nears. Mississippi River levels in the Memphis area are at restrictive levels, reducing the volume of bushels that can be transported. The Army Corp of Engineers are dredging the area, but the additional freight costs will make US corn more expensive versus other global competitors.

Above: Since mid-August prices have largely been rangebound between 400 and 390. A close above the 400 – 414 resistance area could set prices up to rally toward the 430 area. Should they break and close below 385 support, they may be at risk of sliding towards the 372 support level.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has steadily declined due to sluggish demand for the new crop, favorable growing conditions, and expectations of a large upcoming harvest. Weather forecasts have also generally remained supportive of the crop, while the market has factored in the likelihood of higher yields. With the weather turning drier as the crop enters its final development, the funds have covered some of their extensive short positions and rallied prices. While the market still anticipates a large crop at harvest, which could ultimately weigh on prices, should yields be less than expected, the recent pick up in demand could spur more short covering by the funds.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower going into the weekend after a revision in jobs data showing slower growth shook the whole market. November soybeans made a significant bearish reversal after moving up to but failing at the 50-day moving average. Soybean oil led the complex lower with a loss of 3.55% in the October contract and soybean meal was lower as well.

  • For the week, November soybeans gained 5 cents at $10.05 and March 25 soybeans gained 4-3/4 to $10.36-1/2. December soybean meal gained $11.40 to $324.40 and December soybean oil lost 2.38 cents to 39.63 cents. Funds had previously been exiting short positions earlier this week but clearly added to that position in a big way today.

  • Today’s export sales report was strong for soybeans and provided support this morning before other macro events brought markets lower. There were net cancellations of 8.4 mb of soybeans for 23/24 but an increase of 60.9 mb for 24/25 which was above trade expectations. Last week’s export shipments of 18.0 mb were below the 21.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and Indonesia.

  • In Argentina, soy crush workers had previously been striking due to low wages, but an agreement was reached between the union and agricultural traders which has ended the strike. They achieved a 26% raise.

Above: The recent rally has brought November soybeans into the 1005 – 1040 resistance area. A close above this range could set the market up for a rally toward the July high of 1082 ¼. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted losses alongside the rest of the grain complex, most other commodities, and the stock market. It appears to have been a risk off session caused by a combination of a technical correction from overbought territory, profit taking at key resistance levels, and a jobs report this morning that indicated the economy added fewer jobs than expected; there were also downward revisions for the previous two months.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 12.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, and net cancellations of 0.4 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 23.4 mb exceeded the 15.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. Sales commitments for 24/25 have reached 378 mb which is up 31% from last year and above the USDA’s estimated pace of 17% higher.

  • Argentina’s wheat production estimate was left unchanged by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange at 18.5 mmt. This is despite drought conditions affecting some key growing regions. For reference, the USDA estimate is 18.0 mmt. There were some storms over the past weekend that may have helped stabilize the crop, but dry weather is likely to follow for at least the next week.

  • Russia has reportedly reduced their wheat export tax by 19% to 906.4 rubles per mt (for the period ending September 17). Additionally, Russian export prices for wheat remain cheap; the week was ended at $217 per mt which is unchanged from the past few weeks.

  • The global wheat production estimate was increased to 791.4 mmt, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. This compares with the July estimate at 789.1 mmt. Better than anticipated crops in the US and upward revisions in China and Argentina are cited as the reason for the increase. However, there were downward revisions for both Russia and the EU.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor in the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger an extended short-covering rally by managed funds.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. Since posting the recent low, July ’25 Chicago wheat prices have rallied about 50 cents and have entered the congestion and resistance area from early July. Considering there may be significant resistance overhead in this area, we recommend taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on a portion of your anticipated 2025 soft red winter wheat crop, using either July ’25 Chicago wheat futures, or a July ’25 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s close above the 50-day moving average set it up for a potential challenge of the 560 – 570 resistance area, and a rally towards 590 – 595. Should prices reverse and close back below the 50-day moving average, they could again find support near 514, with further support around 500 and 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position could trigger an extended short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 640 – 670 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December wheat appears poised to test overhead resistance near 600, with additional moving average resistance just above there between 605 – 610. If the market turns lower, initial support remains near the 50-day moving average, with further support near the recent 527 ¼ low.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering an extended short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: December Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support near 560. Should prices continue higher, they could encounter resistance in the 617 – 637 area. To the downside, a break below 560 could put the market at risk of a further decline towards support around 540.

Other Charts / Weather

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9-5 End of Day: Soybeans Close Higher Again, as Corn Fades and Wheat Settles Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • For the first time in five sessions the corn market faded and closed lower on the day, as overhead resistance around 411 held and the market begins to show signs of being overbought.

  • The soybean market clawed its way back to close higher on the day after trading lower throughout the overnight session and most of the day. Another flash sale to China and unknown destinations lent support along with sharply higher soybean oil, which helped offset losses in meal.   

  • A resolution between Argentine labor unions and crushers to avoid a strike pressured meal, while a rebound in Malaysian palm oil and canola supported soybean oil.

  • While Minneapolis wheat settled in positive territory, Chicago and KC wheat ended their extended streak of higher closes as traders took profits on the tail of weaker settlements across the board in Matif wheat.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and US Drought Monitor, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed and demand has picked up. While the upcoming harvest of an expectedly large crop may continue to limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low price levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover more of their extensive short positions and rally prices further, however, an extended rally is unlikely until after harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market rally took a pause on Thursday and prices finished lower for the first time in 5 sessions. Technical resistance at the 411 level seemed to hold on Thursday, setting up a potential double top on the charts. Friday’s trade action could be key for next week’s price direction.

  • USDA will release weekly exports sales on Friday morning. New crop sales are expected to range from 700,000 – 1.4 mmt. Last week, export sales were strong totaling 1.494 mmt. Perceived improved export demand has helped stabilize the corn market, but the USDA has not announced a “flash” sale of corn since the market turned at 385 on August 28.

  • Mississippi River levels around Memphis have become increasingly restrictive, with reports of barges running aground as water levels remain low for the third consecutive fall. The combination of higher freight rates and the recent rally in corn prices has made US corn less competitive in the export market.

  • South American weather is becoming more of a focus in the corn market. Even though it is Brazil’s dry season, key growing areas are experiencing a strong dry pattern, which could delay the planting of both corn and soybeans. Rainfall chances will likely pick up as Brazil moves closer to its wet season over the next few months.

Above: Since mid-August prices have largely been rangebound between 400 and 390. A close above the 400 – 414 resistance area could set prices up to rally toward the 430 area. Should they break and close below 385 support, they may be at risk of sliding towards the 372 support level.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has steadily declined due to sluggish demand for the new crop, favorable growing conditions, and expectations of a large upcoming harvest. Weather forecasts have also generally remained supportive of the crop, while the market has factored in the likelihood of higher yields. With the weather turning drier as the crop enters its final development, the funds have covered some of their extensive short positions and rallied prices. While the market still anticipates a large crop at harvest, which could ultimately weigh on prices, should yields be less than expected, the recent pick up in demand could spur more short covering by the funds.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after lower trade overnight and earlier in the day. There was initial pressure from an increase in yield estimates and scattered rain showers that moved through Iowa earlier today. Soybean meal was lower on the day, while soybean oil was higher.

  • This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 189,700 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year and 126,000 mt to China for 24/25. This follows a sale of 131,000 mt earlier this week and confirmed some of yesterday’s rumors that China had purchased more US soybeans.

  • Yesterday afternoon, StoneX released their updated estimates for the national US soybean yield which saw the number increase to 53.0 bpa. This is above the most recent USDA estimate, with some other firms like Allendale estimating yield even higher at 53.3 bpa.

  • Brazil is only expected to increase its planted soybean acreage by 0.9% this year, the slowest rate of growth in 18 years, but production estimates remain very high at around 168 mmt which would be up 14% from the previous crop.

Above: The recent rally has brought November soybeans into the 1005 – 1040 resistance area. A close above this range could set the market up for a rally toward the July high of 1082 ¼. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted losses in Chicago and Kansas City but managed a positive close for Minneapolis. This ended the six-day winning streak for December Chicago wheat and the seven day stretch for December KC. Some pressure resulted from a lower close across the board for Paris milling wheat futures, which also ended the run of seven consecutive sessions of gains. Profit taking after the run higher could have also played a part in today’s lower closes.

  • French farming group, AGPB, estimated that the nation’s 2024 wheat crop would total about 26 mmt. That would be a drop of 26% from the 35.1 mmt crop a year ago. France saw much poorer wheat conditions this season due to wet weather conditions.

  • Russia’s agriculture ministry has maintained its 2024 grain production estimate at 132 mmt. So far, 93 mmt of grain has been harvested, with wheat accounting for 70.5 mmt. Meanwhile, Russian wheat export FOB prices remain low, ranging between $216 and $217 per metric ton.

  • Despite ongoing drought conditions, Ukraine’s agriculture ministry reported that 27,700 hectares of winter wheat have been planted so far. The total planted area for the 2025 winter wheat harvest could exceed 5 million hectares, up from 4.7 million in 2024, compensating for a reduced area planted with winter rapeseed.

  • According to the USDA as of September 3, about 52% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, compared to 47% the previous week. As US winter wheat planting begins, more moisture may be needed to help with establishment of the crop.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor in the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger an extended short-covering rally by managed funds.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. Since posting the recent low, July ’25 Chicago wheat prices have rallied about 50 cents and have entered the congestion and resistance area from early July. Considering there may be significant resistance overhead in this area, we recommend taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on a portion of your anticipated 2025 soft red winter wheat crop, using either July ’25 Chicago wheat futures, or a July ’25 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s close above the 50-day moving average set it up for a potential challenge of the 560 – 570 resistance area, and a rally towards 590 – 595. Should prices reverse and close back below the 50-day moving average, they could again find support near 514, with further support around 500 and 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position could trigger an extended short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 640 – 670 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December wheat appears poised to test overhead resistance near 600, with additional moving average resistance just above there between 605 – 610. If the market turns lower, initial support remains near the 50-day moving average, with further support near the recent 527 ¼ low.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering an extended short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: December Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support near 560. Should prices continue higher, they could encounter resistance in the 617 – 637 area. To the downside, a break below 560 could put the market at risk of a further decline towards support around 540.

Other Charts / Weather

5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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9-4 End of Day: Grain Prices Continue Their March Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Supported by favorable census export data, strong ethanol production figures for July, and carryover momentum from higher wheat and soybeans, December corn extended its rally for the fourth consecutive session, closing above the 50-day moving average for the second day in a row.

  • The soybean market also extended its rally for the fourth session in a row with help from a dry forecast, record crush data, and sharply higher soybean meal prices. Soybean oil succumbed to further pressure from lower crude oil, palm oil, and canola. December Board crush stabilized at 144 ¾ cents, regaining a mere ¼ cent following yesterday’s 6 ¼ cent drop on lower bean oil.

  • The wheat complex led the gains in the grain markets today. Higher Matif wheat, a lower US Dollar, and solid July export data that was 19% higher year over year were enough to feed the market bulls and push the complex to double-digit gains, led by the KC and Minneapolis contracts.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and US Monthly Drought Outlook, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed and demand has picked up. While the upcoming harvest of an expectedly large crop may continue to limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low price levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover more of their extensive short positions and rally prices further, however, an extended rally is unlikely until after harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Solid use and export data helped rally the corn market for the fourth consecutive day, as traders likely covered additional short positions, and December corn extended its move above the 50-day moving average.

  • The USDA’s latest weekly Crop Progress report, released yesterday afternoon, showed that the good-to-excellent ratings for the corn crop held steady at 65%, compared to 53% at this time last year. The report also noted that 90% of the crop has reached the dough stage, 60% has dented, and 19% is now mature.

  • The USDA reported that 473.5 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol production in July, marking a 4% increase from the previous year. Total usage for the 23/24 marketing year stands at 4.988 billion bushels, up 5.3% year-over-year, aligning with the USDA’s full-year projection of 5.450 bb with one month left in the reporting period.

  • Today, the USDA released census export data for July, which totaled 207 mb. This figure is 9 mb lower than June’s, but it far surpassed the 94 mb recorded for July 2023. July exports also exceeded weekly inspections data by 19 mb.

  • There are reports that India is pushing to increase corn-based ethanol production as it shifts away from sugar cane. This transition could turn India into a net corn importer by nearly 1 million metric tons, compared to its current exports of 2 to 4 mmt. Potential corn imports could come from Myanmar and Ukraine, with the US and South America potentially stepping in to fill the export gaps left by India.

Above: Since mid-August prices have largely been rangebound between 400 and 390. A close above the 400 – 414 resistance area could set prices up to rally toward the 430 area. Should they break and close below 385 support, they may be at risk of sliding towards the 372 support level.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the fourth consecutive day and so far, the November contract has gained 21 ½ cents on the week. Support has come from strength in soybean meal, solid crush demand, and a dry forecast, which is expected to last two weeks. Soybean oil ended the day lower with pressure from crude and vegetable oils.

  • Yesterday, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed the soybean crop rating falling 2 points to 65% good to excellent. Last year, the rating was 53% at this time. 94% of the soybean crop is setting pods, compared to 84% last week, and 13% of the crop is dropping leaves versus 6% last week and the 5-year average of 10%.

  • The USDA’s release of Census crush data yesterday afternoon revealed a record July crush totaling 193.4 million bushels, surpassing trade expectations of 192.1 mb. This brings the total crush for the 23/24 marketing year to 2.12 billion bushels, representing 92.6% of the USDA’s current estimate. Meanwhile, soybean oil stocks were the lowest on record for July at 2.01 billion pounds, slightly above trade expectations of 1.97 bp.

  • In Brazil, farmers are preparing to plant soybeans but are dealing with above average temperatures that are expected to last through September 12 with many key growing areas expected to remain dry. Brazilian soybean planting typically begins in mid-September but could be pushed back slightly due to the weather.

  • Yesterday, China purchased 132,000 metric tons of soybeans, and more rumors have circulated today that China may have bought an additional 350,000 to 540,000 mt of US soybeans this week. Export demand has picked up at a critical time for soybean prices.

Above: The recent rally has brought November soybeans into the 1005 – 1040 resistance area. A close above this range could set the market up for a rally toward the July high of 1082 ¼. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was the upside leader today with double-digit gains in all three classes. Today’s drop in the US Dollar Index, followed by a higher close for Matif wheat futures both offered support to the US market. Additionally, India’s domestic wheat price is said to have risen above $9.00 per bushel. This lends credence to the idea that India may need to import wheat, which is also bullish.

  • Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report indicated that the US spring wheat crop is 70% harvested as of September 1. This compares with 68% last year and 70% average. Additionally, the winter wheat crop is now 2% planted, which is in line with the five-year average.

  • Census exports for the month of July totaled 72.5 mb of wheat. This was far above the 55 mb figure from June and was up 13% from July of last year. Additionally, exports have totaled 128 mb for the first two months of the 24/25 marketing year and are up 19% compared to last year.

  • European Union soft wheat exports as of September 1 have reached 4.38 mmt, according to the European commission; the export season began on July 1. This represents a 23% decline from last year’s 5.66 mmt of exports for this time. Nigeria was the leading importer, followed by Egypt and Morocco.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert pressure on the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. Since posting the recent low, July ’25 Chicago wheat prices have rallied about 50 cents and have entered the congestion and resistance area from early July. Considering there may be significant resistance overhead in this area, we recommend taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on a portion of your anticipated 2025 soft red winter wheat crop, using either July ’25 Chicago wheat futures, or a July ’25 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s close above the 50-day moving average set it up for a potential challenge of the 560 – 570 resistance area, and a rally towards 590 – 595. Should prices reverse and close back below the 50-day moving average, they could again find support near 514, with further support around 500 and 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 640 – 670 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December wheat appears poised to test overhead resistance near 600, with additional moving average resistance just above there between 605 – 610. If the market turns lower, initial support remains near the 50-day moving average, with further support near the recent 527 ¼ low.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: December Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support near 560. Should prices continue higher, they could encounter resistance in the 617 – 637 area. To the downside, a break below 560 could put the market at risk of a further decline towards support around 540.

Above: Spring wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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9-3 End of Day: Strong Export Inspections Push Prices Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market rebounded from overnight lows as buyers stepped up on solid export inspections data and an improved technical picture, covering short positions and pressing December corn to a fresh five-week high close following last week’s bullish weekly reversal.

  • Better than expected soybean export inspections and another flash export sale totaling 4.8 mb of new crop soybeans to China brought the buyers back to the soybean market to close the market higher on the day, following a lower open. 2% gains in soybean meal also lent support to the beans, while bean oil closed sharply lower, though well off its lows, in sympathy with sharply lower canola and crude oil.

  • The wheat complex reversed overnight losses shortly after the markets’ reopening for the day session as buyers stepped on strong export inspections and higher Matif wheat, with carryover support from corn and soybeans. As concerns reverberated through the outside markets, a risk off mentality could have lent further support with managed funds carrying sizable, short positions across the grain room.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and US Monthly Drought Outlook, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the months of July and August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Short covering and improved export demand may have helped corn prices push higher for the 3rd straight session. December corn futures closed at its highest level since July 29, as the market posted a 24-cent rally off the most recent 385 low.

  • The corn market saw good follow-through buying after last week’s improved technical picture. The December contract posted a double bottom at 385 and completed a weekly reversal in last week’s trade. The rally could be limited by weakening basis, farmer selling, and higher prices acting as a cap on demand.

  • The USDA released weekly export inspections during the session this morning. Last week, US exporters shipped 38 mb (965,000 mt). This brings total inspections in 23/24 to 2.049 bb, up 40% YOY.  The USDA was targeting a 34% increase, as late season demand has helped push this total.

  • Export sales for corn have improved over the past couple of weeks as lower prices have stimulated some demand. Current accumulated sales for the 24/25 marketing year have caught up with the projected export sales pace. New crop sales at a cumulative 9.4 mmt, as of August 22 covered 16.1% of USDA’s 24/25 export forecast, which is a three-year high for the date.

Above: Since mid-August prices have largely been rangebound between 400 and 390. A close above the 400 – 414 resistance area could set prices up to rally toward the 430 area. Should they break and close below 385 support, they may be at risk of sliding towards the 372 support level.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 15,998 contracts between August 21 – 27, bringing their total position to a net short 241,908 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after a day of tumultuous trade which saw prices down as much as 5 cents and up as much as 24 cents in the November contract. The catalyst for today’s move was likely weather driven as the most recent forecasts are showing dry weather for the next two weeks with temperatures on the cooler side which could cause soybeans to start maturing early.

  • Soybean meal ended the day significantly higher, while soybean oil took the opposite stance under pressure from Canadian canola oil. In retaliation to tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, China opened an anti-dumping investigation against Canadian canola. Crude oil was sharply lower today as well, after Saudi Arabia was rumored to be offering oil to China at a cheaper price.

  • In more supportive news, the USDA reported private export sales this morning totaling 4.8 mb (132,000 mt) of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year. China has increased their purchases of US soybeans recently which has confirmed some of the trade rumors.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans as of August 27, as they bought back 6,207 contracts leaving them short 176,551 contracts which is close to their record short.

Above: The recent rally has brought November soybeans into the 1005 – 1040 resistance area. A close above this range could set the market up for a rally toward the July high of 1082 ¼. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 6,207 contracts between August 21 – 27, bringing their total position to a net short 176,551 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed higher in all three US classes. Support came from higher corn and soybeans, as well as a mostly higher close for Paris milling wheat futures. With the exception of the front month September contract, Paris milling wheat futures averted losses for the sixth consecutive session. There is also supportive news that SovEcon decreased their estimate of Russian wheat production by 0.8 mmt to 82.5 mmt, compared to the USDA at 83 mmt.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 21.2 mb bring total 24/25 inspections to 211 mb, which is up 32% from last year. Exports are estimated at 825 mb, up 17% from last year, and inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace.

  • There was talk that large managed funds today may have been selling stock positions, while buying commodities. This could help explain today’s action in the grain markets, with sharply higher closes in corn, soybeans, and wheat. At the time of writing, the stock market is sharply lower with the Dow down over 550 points, the NASDAQ down nearly 600 points, and the S&P 500 down over 100 points.

  • ABARES, which is Australia’s ag bureau, increased their projection of the Australian wheat crop by 2.7 mmt to 31.8 mmt. This would be 6 mmt above last year’s production and above the USDA’s estimate of 30 mmt.

  • Ukraine’s grain exports have reportedly reached 7 mmt since the season began on June 1. This represents a 63% increase from 4.3 mmt last year. Of that total, wheat exports were 3.6 mmt, which is up 89% year on year. Additionally, Ukraine has reportedly resumed agreements with traders, setting a target of 16.2 mmt for wheat exports in the 24/25 season.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert pressure on the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. Since posting the recent low, July ’25 Chicago wheat prices have rallied about 40 cents and have entered the congestion and resistance area from early July. Considering there may be significant resistance overhead in this area, we recommend taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on a portion of your anticipated 2025 soft red winter wheat crop, using either July ’25 Chicago wheat futures, or a July ’25 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s close above the 50-day moving average set it up for a potential challenge of the 560 – 570 resistance area, and a rally towards 590 – 595. Should prices reverse and close back below the 50-day moving average, they could again find support near 514, with further support around 500 and 488.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,217 contracts between August 21 – 27, bringing their total position to a net short 56,202 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 640 – 670 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market appears to have found support near the 530 area in the December contract. Should this area hold and prices turn higher, overhead resistance could still be found between 573 and 580. A close below 527 could lead to a further slide towards 470.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,317 contracts between August 21 – 27, bringing their total position to a net short 32,002 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: December Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support near 560. Should prices continue higher, they could encounter resistance in the 617 – 637 area. To the downside, a break below 560 could put the market at risk of a further decline towards support around 540.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,602 contracts between August 21 – 27, bringing their total position to a net short 26,248 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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8-30 End of Day: Markets Close Out the Week on a Strong Note

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Monday, September 2, in Observance of Labor Day

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • For the first time since late July the corn market closed the week in positive territory, with December corn posting a bullish reversal on the weekly chart. Improved demand, First Notice Day, and month-end likely triggered short-covering.

  • Volatile, two-sided trade dominated the soybean market as traders sought to cover short positions on an improved demand outlook, following reports of additional flash sales of soybeans and soybean meal ahead of month-end and the three-day Labor Day weekend. Additional support came from soybean meal which also closed in the green, but well off its highs after encountering resistance at the 50-day moving average. While soybean oil settled lower on the day, pressured by lower crude oil.

  • After trading lower and finding support below the market, all three wheat classes closed higher on the day for the fourth consecutive day, led by the Minneapolis contracts. The day’s higher prices were supported by continued quality concerns regarding the spring wheat crop and strength in Matif wheat.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the months of July and August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished the week strong as the combination of improved demand, and First Notice Day brought short covering into the corn market. December corn futures finished the week higher for the first time in five weeks gaining 10 cents on the week.

  • This week posted an improved technical picture for the corn market with Dec. futures bouncing off a double bottom at 385, and finishing the week with a weekly reversal, trading past last week’s high. The key will be follow-through price action next week to confirm a possible trend change in corn futures.

  • Export sales for corn have improved over the past couple of weeks as lower prices have stimulated some demand. This week’s export sales report for the 24/25 marketing year was above expectations at nearly 1.5 mmt and has helped catch up with the projected export sales pace. New crop sales at a cumulative 9.4 mmt, as of Aug. 22 covered 16.1% of USDA’s 24/25 export forecast. Which is a three-year high for the date.

  • Argentina producers are looking to reduce their total corn area for the 24/25 crop by 17.1% versus last year, due to concerns regarding disease and infestation with leafhoppers, which cut yield potential in their 23/24 corn crop.

Above: Since mid-August prices have largely been rangebound between 400 and 390. A close above the 400 – 414 resistance area could set prices up to rally toward the 430 area. Should they break and close below 385 support, they may be at risk of sliding towards the 372 support level

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after volatile trade that saw prices as much as 15 cents higher at the open, turning negative, and then working higher throughout the day. Funds were likely taking profits at the end of the week and month, but good export sales and a decline in crop ratings have added to the bullish fundamental story. Soybean meal was higher today while soybean oil was slightly lower.

  • In more supportive news, this morning, the USDA reported a private export sale totaling 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China for the 24/25 marketing year and 100,000 mt of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Colombia for the 24/25 marketing year.

  • Today was First Notice Day for the September contracts and there were only 6 deliveries for soybeans, 35 deliveries for soybean oil, and zero versus meal. Today’s move higher saw November beans close right at 1000 which was key, but prices will need to hold these levels next week.

  • For the week, November soybeans gained 27 cents to end at 1000 while March soybeans gained 25 ½ cents to settle at 1031 ¾. December soybean meal gained $8.50 on the week to $313.00, while December soybean oil gained 1.63 cents to 42.01 cents.

  • In Brazil, soybean production in the key growing state of Parana is expected to jump by 20% to 23.33 mmt due to better yields. While planting for the next season is set to begin in September, many areas remain too dry, which could delay planting until mid-September when rains are expected.

Above: The recent rally has brought November soybeans into the 1005 – 1040 resistance area. A close above this range could set the market up for a rally toward the July high of 1082 ¼. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex closed higher across all three classes for the fourth consecutive day, after initially trading lower and rallying off support. Minneapolis contracts led the day’s gains, likely driven by ongoing quality concerns regarding the spring wheat crop. Matif wheat, which notched its fifth consecutive higher close, also provided support to the US wheat market.

  • It’s been reported that the spring wheat crop in North Dakota continues to battle with quality issues including vomitoxin, sprouting, and low falling numbers due to excessive rain. 

  • The Australian wheat crop looks to be good shape with reports of surveyed analysts estimating this year’s crop to come in around 31.1 mmt, compared to last year’s 26 mmt and the Australian Ag Minister’s June estimate of 29 mmt. The higher estimate may have added some overhead resistance to prices.

  • EU grain production for the 24/25 season is now projected to come in at 264.5 mmt by the European Commission. Of this total, 116.1 mmt are expected to be soft wheat, which is down from the Commission’s July estimate of 120.8 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert pressure on the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 590 – 610 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s close above the 50-day moving average set it up for a potential challenge of the 560 – 570 resistance area, and a rally towards 590 – 595. Should prices reverse and close back below the 50-day moving average, they could again find support near 514, with further support around 500 and 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 640 – 670 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market appears to have found support near the 530 area in the December contract. Should this area hold and prices turn higher, overhead resistance could still be found near 565 and again between 573 and 580. A close below 527 could lead to a further slide towards 470.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: December Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support near 560. Should prices continue higher, they could encounter resistance near the 50-day moving average and again in the 617 – 637 area. To the downside, a break below 560 could put the market at risk of a further decline towards support around 540.

Other Charts / Weather

5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

|

8-29 End of Day: Markets Close Strong as First Notice Day and Month End Nears

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Monday, September 2, in Observance of Labor Day

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Sellers took a back seat in the corn market today as traders covered short positions, spurred by higher wheat and soybean prices, as well as strong export sales, ahead of month-end and tomorrow’s First Notice Day in the September contracts.

  • Bolstered by better than expected weekly export sales and higher soybean meal and oil prices, November soybeans printed their highest close in nearly three weeks and closed above the 21-day moving average for the first time since mid-July.

  • Supported by strong crude oil prices and higher palm oil, potential short covering in soybean oil kicked in once above Monday’s high, driving it to its highest level since late July. While soybean meal also rallied, upward momentum was more restrained, as prices retreated after hitting overhead resistance.

  • The wheat complex held support near the overnight lows and rallied back through the day, supported by solid export sales, a continued rally in Matif wheat, and potential short covering as month-end draws near. Today marked the third consecutively higher close across all three classes of US wheat. 

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, the 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and this week’s Drought Monitor courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the months of July and August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Buyers returned to the corn market on Thursday as prices pushed to their highest close in over a week. The combination of strength in other grains, First Notice Day on the September contract, and a solid week of new crop export sales triggered a short covering rally as the market closes in on the end of the marketing year and the 3-day Labor Day weekend.

  • The USDA released weekly export sales this morning. Old crop sales were light as the marketing year winds down at 90.6 mb (15,300 mt), but new crop sales were just above the range of expectations at 58.8 mb (1.494 mmt). 

  • Though weather has moved to the back burner for this time of year in the corn market, the current 6 – 14 day window is showing a drier period across the Corn Belt. Even with temperatures cooling down, the trade is still leaning to a large corn crop, but the recent heat and dryness may have trimmed some of the top end off the yields.

  • Funds are estimated to still be short about 265,000 corn contracts. With the 3-day weekend, the market is likely seeing some short covering into that window as well as the end of the marketing year on August 30. The 24/25 marketing year begins on September 1.

Above: Since mid-August prices have largely been rangebound between 400 and 390. A close above the 400 – 414 resistance area could set prices up to rally toward the 430 area. Should they break and close below 385 support, they may be at risk of sliding towards the 372 support level.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher with the November contract closing above the 21-day moving average for the first time since mid-July. The most recent weather forecast shows hot and dry conditions in the 8-14 day forecast, which could cause soybeans to see a decline in yields. First Notice Day is also tomorrow which may be impacting prices. Both soybean meal and oil were higher today, but soybean oil led the way with gains of over 3%.

  • Today’s export sales report was strong for soybeans. The USDA reported net cancellations of 5.3 million bushels of soybeans for 23/24 but an increase of 96.1 mb for 24/25 which was above the range of trade analyst estimates. Last week’s export shipments of 19.9 mb were also above the 19.1 mb needed each week to meet USDA estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Germany, and China.

  • Yesterday, funds were estimated to have sold approximately 4,000 soybean contracts. Funds currently hold an estimated net short position of about 187,000 soybean contracts, 84,000 soybean oil, and are net even meal. Funds are likely holding a record short position in soybeans at the moment.

  • In South America, soybean plantings are about to begin, but conditions are currently dry so there will likely be delays until moisture improves. Mato Grosso and other key soybean producing states have received very little rain over the past few months.

Above: Since the front month continuous chart rolled to the November contract on August 15, soybean futures have largely traded sideways. A breakout above 992 could push prices towards the 1005 – 1040 resistance area. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat classes rebuffed early weakness to finish the session in positive territory. Support came from rallying corn and soybeans and a third consecutive higher close for Paris milling wheat futures. Today’s strength also comes despite another day higher in the US Dollar Index. With First Notice Day tomorrow for September grain contracts, as well as it being the end of the month, it is possible that today’s rally was driven by managed funds squaring positions.

  • The USDA showed in its weekly Export Sales report an increase of 19.6 mb in wheat export sales for 24/25 for the week ending August 22, but a decrease of 1.3 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week of 21.2 mb exceeded the 16.0 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. Total wheat sales commitments for the 24/25 marketing year are up 33% from last year at 366 mb, which is well above the USDA’s estimated pace.

  • According to the USDA as of August 27, approximately 21% of US spring wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week. Yields remain favorable in North Dakota and Minnesota, with the national harvest now over 50% complete. Additionally, drought conditions in winter wheat areas have increased by 2% from last week to 47%, which could impact the establishment of the soon to be planted winter wheat crop.

  • The German grain harvest, according to preliminary government data, is expected to fall 9% year over year due to bad weather. Total grain production this year is estimated at 34.5 mmt, which is below private German farmer’s group DBV’s estimate of 39.3 mmt. Wheat specifically is expected to produce 18.5 mmt, which would be down 15% from a year ago.

  • Argus Media is estimating the French soft wheat harvest will total 25.1 mmt, which would be a 27% decline from last year if realized. Additionally, they are projecting that French soft wheat exports outside the European Union will fall 60% to just 4.1 mmt, the lowest total since 2001/2002. This would also result in a loss of about $1.6 billion in export revenue for France.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert pressure on the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 590 – 610 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The support area below the market between 524 and 514 ¼ held with Dec ’24 posting a bullish key reversal on August 27. Should prices continue higher toward the 560 – 570 area, they could encounter resistance near the 50-day moving average before then. A break below 514 ¼ could set the market up for a further decline towards 500 and 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 640 – 670 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market appears to have found support near the 530 area in the December contract. Should this area hold and prices turn higher, overhead resistance could still be found near 565 and again between 573 and 580. A close below 527 could lead to a further slide towards 470.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: December Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support near 560. Should prices continue higher, they could encounter resistance near the 50-day moving average and again in the 617 – 637 area. To the downside, a break below 560 could put the market at risk of a further decline towards support around 540.

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