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11-14 End of Day: Grain Markets Close Lower as the Dollar Inches Higher

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market settled just off its lows as technical selling pressed December corn to its largest loss in a month after breaking support.
  • Soybeans closed sharply lower, alongside both soybean meal and oil as concern for slowing demand to China and favorable South American weather grip the market.
  • Chicago wheat led the wheat complex lower again today, as rumors of potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and the continued rise in the US dollar kept sellers active.
  • To see updated US precipitation forecast, Drought Monitor, and Percent of Winter Wheat in Drought, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity for catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market has traded back towards the top of the 397 – 434 range that it has been in since September. If you missed any of our three previous sales recommendations from earlier in the season, this rally represents a good opportunity to begin to catch up.
  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. If you happened to miss our previous sales recommendations and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Sellers jumped into the corn market, and commodities in general, as December corn posted its largest negative day since mid-October. The rising US dollar, and a technical break in price pressured the corn market for the session.
  • The US dollar continues to climb, trading at its highest level since November 2023. The strong dollar limits US export competitiveness and can trigger producer selling in Brazil and Argentina with the weak relationship of their currency versus the dollar. The increased selling pace makes more bushels available to the export market to compete with US supplies.
  • The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on tomorrow morning, delayed from today due to the Veterans Day holiday.  Expectations for new corn sales last week range from 1.25 – 2.6 mmt as corn export business has remained active.
  • Weekly ethanol production remains strong, with last week’s output rising to 1.113 million barrels per day — above expectations and marking a marketing-year high. A total of 112 mb of corn was used for ethanol production last week, putting usage ahead of USDA targets.
  • The corn market may stay pressured as the month of November brings December options expiration, and the pricing window for basis and price later contracts. As producers make decisions on these positions, it could lead to selling pressure and volatility in the corn market.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. For those that missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. If you happen to have capital needs, consider making additional sales into price strength. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower after trading higher overnight, slipping steadily throughout the day. January soybeans are now trading just 14 cents above their contract low, during a period when prices often begin to rise toward year-end. Both soybean meal and oil also ended the day lower.
  • Soybean meal prices remain under pressure as increased crushing for oil has boosted supplies, while favorable weather forecasts for South America, major exporters of the product, have also weighed on the market. The front month December meal contract has now traded to its lowest point since August 2020.
  • This morning the USDA reported a flash sale showing that private exporters sold 176,000 mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 24/25 marketing year.
  • NOPA will release October crush totals on Friday, with expectations for a record month. Estimates suggest 196.84 mb of soybeans were crushed, which, if realized, would be up 11% from September and 3.7% from October 2023. Soybean oil stocks are also forecasted to increase after hitting record lows in September.
  • The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on Friday morning, delayed due to the Veterans Day holiday. Expectations for new soybean sales last week range from 1.0 to 2.2 mmt. Trends will be closely watched as weekly sales have declined steadily after peaking a few weeks ago.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • It was another down day for wheat, along with the rest of the grain complex. Part of the weakness may stem from talk about potential peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, the US Dollar Index rose again to a one-year high, keeping pressure on US commodity markets.
  • According to Reuters, Australia may produce about 1 mmt more wheat than previously estimated, with harvest 15%-20% complete and showing high yields. Frost damage from September appears less severe than anticipated. Last year’s wheat harvest was 26 mmt, and the USDA projects 32 mmt this year, making Australia the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter.
  • SovEcon is reported to have lowered their estimate of Russian 2024 wheat production by 0.1 mmt to 81.4 mmt. However, they also increased their 2025 estimate by 1.5 mmt to 81.6 mmt.
  • Traders recently received updated data from South America: CONAB lowered Brazil’s wheat crop estimate by 0.15 mmt to 8.11 mmt, while the Rosario Grain Exchange cut Argentina’s forecast by 0.7 mmt to 18.8 mmt (the USDA projects 17.5 mmt). The Brazilian wheat harvest is about 80% complete, and Argentina’s is 15% complete.
  • Recent rains have caused drought readings to fall significantly for winter wheat. According to the USDA, as of November 12, about 43% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought, down from 57% a week ago. However, spring wheat area in drought increased by 1% from last week to 42%.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy is targeting the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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11-13 End of Day: Grain Markets Drift Lower Again

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market slid lower for the third day in a row, pressured by weakness in the wheat market and seasonal weakness despite the report of solid flash sales.
  • With a lack of fresh export sales and pressure from lower soybean meal and oil, the soybean market closed with small losses after finding support near its 20-day moving average.
  • Chicago wheat led the wheat complex lower as the USDA reported improved conditions for the winter wheat crop. Expectations for more rain, combined with lower Matif wheat futures and a stronger US dollar, added to the weakness.
  • To see updated US and South American weather forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity for catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market has traded back towards the top of the 397 – 434 range that it has been in since September. If you missed any of our three previous sales recommendations from earlier in the season, this rally represents a good opportunity to begin to catch up.
  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. If you happened to miss our previous sales recommendations and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures traded lower for the third consecutive day as weakness in the wheat market and seasonal selling pressure outweighed a friendly daily export sale announcement.
  • The USDA announced a pair of corn export sales this morning. Mexico purchased 401,357 mt (15.8 mb) of corn, and unknown destinations added 290,820 mt (11.5 mb), with both sales for the current marketing year.
  • On the weekly crop progress numbers released on Tuesday, the current corn harvest is estimated to be 95% complete, versus 86% a year ago and 84% for the 5-year average.
  • Grain markets have been under pressure reacting to the potential appointees to positions in the Trump administration. It was announced on Tuesday the Former congressmen Lee Zeldon was tabbed to the head of the EPA. As a congressman, Rep. Zeldin has a history of supporting legislation that could limit the impact of biofuels.
  • The corn market could have limited upside as the month of November brings December options expiration, and the pricing window for basis or price later contracts. As producers make decisions on these positions, it could lead to selling pressure and volatility in the corn market.
  • U.S. dollar continues to climb, trading at its highest levels since May. The strong dollar limited U.S. export competitiveness and can trigger producer selling in Brazil and Argentina with the weak relationship of foreign currency versus the dollar.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. For those that missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. If you happen to have capital needs, consider making additional sales into price strength. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the third consecutive day but found support near the 20-day moving average, bouncing off their lows to end with a small loss. The recent downtrend may stem from a lack of flash sales after several active weeks. Both soybean meal and oil also closed lower, with soybean oil posting the larger loss.
  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed the soybean crop at 96% harvested. This compares to 94% last week, the 5-year average of 91%, and was within the range of average trade guesses. With harvest virtually complete, trade will look for a potential post-harvest rally.
  • In Brazil, the soybean crop is reportedly 67% planted as of Nov 7, according to AgRural. This compares to 54% a week ago and 61% the previous year. It has been impressive to see how quickly planting has rebounded after the weather delays. Production is expected to reach 168.3 mmt.
  • China’s COFCO estimates that the country’s soybean imports may drop by 9.5% for the 24/25 marketing year. Officials also stated that Chinese buyers stockpiled soybeans ahead of the US elections out of concern for deteriorating relations with the US.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat again posted double-digit losses in the Chicago futures, with smaller losses in Kansas City and Minneapolis. Sharply lower Matif wheat futures offered no support to the U.S. market, nor did another move higher in the US Dollar. Additionally, improvements in winter wheat crop conditions contributed to the weakness.
  • According to the USDA, as of November 10, 91% of the US winter wheat crop has been planted, slightly behind last year’s 92% pace and the 93% average. Of the planted crop, 76% has emerged, also trailing last year and the average, both at 79%. Recent rains improved conditions, raising the good-to-excellent rating by 3% from last week to 44%. Additional moisture expected over the next week could further boost conditions.
  • Russia’s wheat export values are reportedly at $226 per mt for December and $230 for January. These prices fall well below the government-suggested minimum, maintaining pressure on the export market. Additionally, EU and Argentina FOB values are now close to Russia’s, which is also bearish for the US market.
  • On a bullish note, India’s domestic wheat prices have hit a record high due to strong demand and limited supply. In September, the Indian government reduced the amount of stocks that traders and millers could hold to curb prices. However, this measure appears to have been less effective than anticipated, and the government may need to release wheat from its reserves to control prices. This situation also reinforces the possibility that India may need to become a net wheat importer in the future.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy is targeting the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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11-12 End of Day: Markets Close Lower Across the Board

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market closed near the bottom of the day’s range, with relatively small losses as it continues to consolidate inside Friday’s trading range. Selling pressure came from lower wheat and soybeans, and a higher US dollar.
  • Soybeans followed through on Monday’s weak close from technical selling and sharply lower soybean oil, which has reversed its recent up trend.
  • Soybean oil followed palm oil lower, which lost 3.2% overnight after reaching 2 ½ year highs. Meal also closed down on the day as it continues to drift sideways to lower.
  • The wheat complex settled with double-digit losses across the board after rejecting Monday’s late day strength. Expectations of more rain in the US Plains, carryover weakness from lower Matif wheat, and a rising US Dollar Index contributed to the weakness.
  • To see updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity for catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market has traded back towards the top of the 397 – 434 range that it has been in since September. If you missed any of our three previous sales recommendations from earlier in the season, this rally represents a good opportunity to begin to catch up.
  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished lower for the second straight session, pressured by selling momentum across the soybean and wheat markets, as the US dollar remains strong.
  • The US dollar continued its breakout move after the election, trading higher in four of the past five sessions and reaching its highest level since June. The strong dollar has triggered some producer selling in Brazil and Argentina and may have weakened the competitiveness of US grains against global competition.
  • The USDA released weekly export inspection for corn today.  Inspections last week totaled 793,012 mt (31.2 mb), down slightly from the previous week’s total.  Total inspections are now at 324 mb, up 31% over last year.
  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn on the export market this morning.  Mexico purchased 110,500 mt (4.35 mb) of corn for the current marketing year.
  • The weekly crop progress report will be released later this afternoon, delayed due to the Veterans Day holiday. The market expects the corn harvest to be nearly 95% complete as producers wrap up this year’s work.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. For those with capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the second consecutive day, likely due to technical selling after failing to close above the 100-day moving average twice in a row. Most of today’s pressure came from sharply lower soybean oil, which reversed the recent trend of soybean oil gains while meal slipped. However, with meal prices so low, demand may now be kicking in.
  • Today’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections totaling 83.7 mb for the week ending November 7. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 560 mb, which is up 6% from this point last year. The USDA is estimating soybean exports at 1.825 bb for 24/25 which would be up 7% from last year.
  • In Brazil, the soybean crop is reportedly 67% planted as of Nov 7, according to AgRural. This compares to 54% a week ago and 61% the previous year. It has been impressive to see how quickly planting has rebounded after the weather delays.
  • Since the election results were announced, there has been a sharp rise in the US dollar. Many of the export sales seen by the US ahead of the election are now being diverted to South America as soybeans there have become cheaper as a result of the difference between the US Dollar and Brazilian Real.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted double-digit losses across all three futures classes. Pressure again came from a lower close for Matif wheat, another rise in the US Dollar Index, and spillover weakness from lower corn and soybeans. Additional precipitation expected in the US Plains states over the next week or so also added weight to the wheat complex.
  • Weekly wheat export inspections of 12.8 mb bring total 24/25 inspections to 372 mb, up 40% from last year. This is ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace; they project total wheat exports at 825 mb, an increase of 17% from the previous year.
  • According to Ukraine’s agriculture ministry, winter grain plantings are 96.3% complete, with about 5 million hectares sown out of the expected 5.19 million. Of that total, wheat is reportedly planted on 4.4 million hectares, or 97.2% of the estimated area. Notably, around 95% of Ukraine’s wheat output is winter wheat.
  • Wheat prices in Brazil reportedly increased last week, partly due to speculation that the government might make domestic purchases. Current prices are said to be below the government’s minimum thresholds of 78.51 BRL per 60 kg bag in the south and 80.00 BRL in other regions. The federal government has indicated it may purchase up to 200,000 mt of wheat from producers in Rio Grande do Sul.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy is targeting the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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11-11 End of Day: Corn and Beans Fail to Extend Friday’s Gains as Wheat Breaks Lower

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures failed to gain traction to the upside and settled mid-range, weighed down by lower wheat, strength in the US dollar, and a still sizable US supply.
  • Soybeans closed at the low end of its range following another failed test to stay above the 100-day moving average. Carryover weakness from a bearish reversal in soybean oil, and a lower close in meal contributed to the day’s decline.
  • Much needed rain over winter wheat areas this weekend triggered early selling across the wheat complex. While the complex closed lower overall, December contracts for all three classes settled in the upper-middle of their respective ranges.
  • To see updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity for catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market has traded back towards the top of the 397 – 434 range that it has been in since September. If you missed any of our three previous sales recommendations from earlier in the season, this rally represents a good opportunity to begin to catch up.
  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished lower on the day, pressured by heavy overall supplies, a strong US dollar and selling pressure in the wheat and crude oil markets.
  • December corn futures failed to find some follow through buying after Friday’s USDA report. Despite the reduced yield and production, the corn carry out was only 8 mb below market expectations, which limited the market’s upside. Prices did hold support at 425 in the December contract, finishing in the middle of Friday’s price range.
  • With the Veteran’s Day Holiday, the USDA will release weekly export inspections on Tuesday. The expectation for those shipments is for them to be in the 700,000 to 900,000 mt range. 
  • The corn market may be limited as it moves closer to the First Notice Day for December futures, and producers holding December basis contracts will need to either price those bushels or roll them to the March contract
  • Managed funds have become long in the corn market for the first time since August 2023. They built a long position of approximately 22,000 contracts, completely erasing the record short position they held this past summer.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. For those with capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after trading higher in the morning, which brought January futures up to the 100-day moving average before sliding back for the second consecutive day. Friday’s WASDE report was friendly with a cut to yield and a decrease in ending stocks. Despite these cuts, the US is still on track to produce a very large soybean crop.
  • This morning, soy products initially moved in opposite directions, with soybean meal rising and soybean oil falling. However, both slipped throughout the day and closed lower, with soybean oil posting larger losses. Recent increases in crush have met demand for soybean oil but have created a surplus of soybean meal.
  • Friday’s WASDE report showed soybean yields dropping more than expected, from 53.1 bpa last month to 51.7 bpa. As a result, total production declined to 4.461 billion bushels from 4.582 billion, with 24/25 US ending stocks falling to 470 million bushels from 550 million. Export demand was reduced by 25 million bushels despite strong recent sales, and global ending stocks also dropped, coming in below the lower range of analyst estimates.
  • Friday’s CFTC report indicated that, as of November 5, funds had bought back just 2,114 contracts, leaving them net short 70,112 contracts. It’s estimated that funds have bought back an additional 28,000 contracts since then.

Above: The breakout above 1018 on Nov. 7, suggests the market has the potential to test the September highs near 1070. Before reaching that point, prices may encounter nearby resistance between 1044 and 1050. If prices retreat, initial support may be found near the 50-day moving average and again near 975.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was under pressure today and, though it still posted a negative close, managed to finish well above session lows. Much of the weakness stemmed from good rains that moved across the US winter wheat belt over the weekend, helping to alleviate drought conditions and improve crop prospects. Adding to the weakness, the US Dollar Index pushed to a new near-term high today.
  • According to SovEcon, Russia exported 770,000 mt of grain last week, with wheat accounting for 720,000 mt of that total. This was well below the 1.12 mmt of wheat exported the prior week. Additionally, IKAR reported that Russian wheat export values ended last week at $228 per mt, down from $232 the week before and well below the government’s suggested $245 price floor.
  • Ukrainian grain exports for the first week of November rose about 5% from the previous year to 902,000 mt, according to the country’s agriculture ministry. Since the season began on July 1, total grain exports have reached 15.3 mmt, up 52% from last year. Wheat alone accounts for 8 mmt of that total, which is an increase of 60% from last year.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy is targeting the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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11-8 End of Day: Corn and Beans Settle Higher Following Today’s USDA Report; Wheat Mostly Lower

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures continued their climb today for the sixth consecutive day, with help from friendly yield numbers from the USDA and continued strong demand. While December corn closed strong it failed to close above September’s high.
  • Soybeans closed higher on the day with modest gains, despite briefly dipping below unchanged. Much lower-than-expected US soybean ending stocks lent support, along with a third consecutive day of gains in soybean oil. However, lower soybean meal weighed on beans, as it continued to consolidate and closed lower.
  • The wheat complex closed mostly lower on the day, as all three classes remain in a sideways trend with little fresh bullish news to trade and a neutral USDA report that came in as expected.
  • To see updated US and South American temperature and precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity for catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market has traded back towards the top of the 397 – 434 range that it has been in since September. If you missed any of our three previous sales recommendations from earlier in the season, this rally represents a good opportunity to begin to catch up.
  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures rose for the sixth consecutive day, driven by steady demand and a larger-than-expected reduction in corn yield in Friday’s USDA report. December corn ended the week up 16 ½ cents.
  • Corn futures used a larger than expected cut in corn yield in Friday’s USDA report and consistent demand to push prices higher for the third consecutive day. For the week, December corn finished 16 ½ cents higher.
  • The USDA lowered their projected corn yield by 0.7 bpa in Friday’s USDA crop production report to 183.1 bpa. The lower yield was a reflection of the dry weather at the end of the growing season and during harvest. 
  • Despite a good demand tone, the USDA left current demand projections unchanged given the early time of the marketing year. The reduced production lowered corn carryout projections to 1.938 billion bushels, which was slightly below analyst expectations and the fifth month in a row that carryout has declined.
  • Positive gains in the commodity markets may have been limited on talk the President-elect Trump was asking Robert Lighthizer to resume his role as head of US trade policy. Robert Lighthizer is known for having a tough stance when working with China and a supporter of trade tariffs.
  • On Friday, the USDA announced another flash corn sale of 200,480 mt (7.9 mb) to unknown destinations for the current marketing year.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. For those with capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher following a volatile day of trade. The WASDE report turned out to be friendly for soybeans, which saw gains of as much as 18 cents, but prices faded into negative territory before recovering into the close. Soybean meal and oil continued their opposing trends with meal lower and soybean oil higher.
  • Today’s WASDE report saw soybean yields fall much more than expected to 51.7 bpa from 53.1 bpa last month. Total production fell to 4.461 billion bushels from 4.582 bb as a result, with 24/25 US ending stocks falling to 470 million bushels from 550 mb last month. Export demand was reduced by 25 mb despite strong recent export sales. World ending stocks were lowered as well and were below the lower range of analyst estimates.
  • After the USDA report, January soybeans rallied up to their 100-day moving average for the first time the beginning of June. While the following pullback may have been technical, it coincided with the timing of Donald Trump asking protectionist Robert Lighthizer to run the US trade policy. Lighthizer has been tough on China which may have concerned traders today and brought caution to the rally.
  • For the week, January soybeans gained 36 ½ cents to 1030 ¼ while new crop November 2025 gained 20 ¼ cents to 1052 ½. December soybean meal managed to gain $0.90 on the week, ending at $296.20 while December soybean oil gained 2.47 cents to 48.77 cents.

Above: The breakout above 1018 on Nov. 7, suggests the market has the potential to test the September highs near 1070. Before reaching that point, prices may encounter nearby resistance between 1044 and 1050. If prices retreat, initial support may be found near the 50-day moving average and again near 975.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a day of two-sided trade, wheat closed mixed in the Chicago contracts but posted losses across the board for Kansas City and Minneapolis. With little supportive news from the USDA and a rebound in the US Dollar index today, wheat had limited reasons to rally.
  • Today’s WASDE report was generally neutral for wheat, as expected. US 24/25 ending stocks were raised slightly from 812 million bushels to 815 mb. Global 23/24 carryout was also increased a touch, from 266.2 million metric tons to 266.3 mmt. For 24/25, global carryout was reduced a tad from 257.7 mmt to 257.6 mmt. Additionally, US wheat production was unchanged at 1.971 billion bushels and exports were also untouched at 825 mb.
  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat harvest is now 12.1% complete, an increase of 4.4% from a week ago. They left total production unchanged at 18.6 mmt, above today’s USDA estimate of 17.5 mmt, which was reduced from the October estimate of 18.0 mmt.
  • The USDA did lower their Brazilian wheat production estimate in today’s report, from 9.0 mmt in October to 8.5 mmt today. However, analyst StoneX is even lower with their projection of 7.5 mmt, compared to their previous guess of 7.9 mmt.
  • According to Russia’s prime minister, the country’s grain harvest has reached 128 mmt, with the total grain crop estimated at 130 mmt. The Russian agriculture minister also projected the 2024 wheat harvest at 83 mmt. However, today, the USDA estimated Russian wheat production slightly lower, at 81.5 mmt, with Russian wheat exports unchanged at 48 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy is targeting the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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11-7 End of Day: Strong Export Sales of Soybeans, Soybean Oil and Corn Lift Futures; Wheat Ends Lower.

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures ended slightly higher on the day after strong weekly export sales for the fourth consecutive week. Traders expect a slightly smaller US corn carryout number compared to last month on tomorrow’s WASDE report.
  • Soybean futures posted their largest daily gain since late September today after strong export sales and on the back of rallying soybean oil futures. Traders expect the USDA to cut this year’s soybean crop slightly in tomorrow’s WASDE, leading to a slight reduction in US ending stocks.
  • Massive weekly US soybean oil sales, the largest in over 10 years, sent soybean oil futures sharply higher on the day matching their largest daily gain since July. Soybean meal futures were also higher on the day.
  • Wheat futures ended the day slightly lower as late day strength in corn and soybean futures were not enough to pull wheat out of the red. More moisture is forecast over the next 7 days for major winter wheat producing areas of the US.
  • To see the updated US drought monitor as well as the seven-day US precipitation forecast, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.
  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished with marginal gains on the session, supported by above expectation weekly corn export sales and a soybean oil rally to pull soybeans strongly higher on the session. A negative wheat market and producer selling likely limited gains in the corn market on the session.
  • The USDA announced weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Last week, U.S. exporters added 2.767 MMT of sales for the marketing year. This number exceeded the top end of expectations as Mexico was the largest buyer of U.S. corn last week.
  • USDA announced a flash sale of corn on the export market this morning. Unknown destination purchased 120,000 MT (5.9 mb) of corn for the marketing year. The export pace has been very strong as total accumulated sales for the current marketing year are up 48% YOY and well ahead of expectations.
  • USDA will release the next round of Crop Production forecasts with the WASDE report on Friday morning.  Expectations are for corn yield to be decreased slightly to 183.7 bu/ac and corn carry out to be lowered by 50 mb to 1.946 billion bushels. Regarding yields, 8 of the 17 analysts surveyed for the report raised the corn yield expectation. The key will be any adjustments being made to demand this early in the marketing year.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. For those with capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher after rebounding off yesterday’s post-election sell-off and ended the day trading above their 50-day moving average for the first time in nearly a month. Export sales were strong, but the primary source of support came from soybean oil. Soybean meal ended slightly higher but was well behind the gains in bean oil.
  • December soybean oil gained 1.98 cents today or 4.27% ending at 48.32 cents, the highest level since early July. Support is thought to be coming from the hope that when Donald Trump takes office next year, he will increase tariffs on imported Chinese used cooking oil which would benefit soybean oil demand.
  • Today’s export sales report for soybeans was strong and showed sales at the higher end of the trade range. The USDA reported an increase of 74.9 mb of soybean export sales for 24/25, and last week’s export shipments of 89.1 mb were well above the 33.4 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations. Primary destinations were to China, unknown destinations, and Egypt.
  • Trade estimates for Friday’s WASDE report see soybean ending stocks falling by 15 mb to 535 mb and the average soybean yield falling to 52.9 bpa from 53.1 bpa last month. World ending stocks are expected to be lowered slightly.

Above: Since mid-October the soybean market has been largely rangebound between 1018 on the topside and 980 down below. A breakout above 1018 could suggest a rally back toward the September highs, with intermediate resistance near the 100-day moving average. Whereas a close below 980 could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across the board, despite strength in corn and especially soybeans. Recent rains for much of the nation’s midsection, along with more in forecast, may be weighing on wheat futures. Additionally, Matif wheat futures were the downside leader again today, as the US market followed their lower close.
  • The USDA reported an increase of 13.8 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, and shipments last week fell below the 15.3 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 825 mb. However, sales commitments for 24/25 are up 18% from a year ago at 510 mb.
  • Drought readings have improved for winter wheat growing areas after recent rains. According to the USDA, as of November 5, abought 57% of the estimated production area is experiencing drought. This is down 5% from a week ago. However, spring wheat areas actually worsened by 1% to 41% of the area in drought. Despite the improvements for winter wheat, the ratings are still generally high, and more rains will be needed to help ease the dryness.
  • For tomorrow’s WASDE report, there are not expected to be major changes for wheat. US 24/25 ending stocks are anticipated to be unchanged at 812 mb, along with no change for global 223/24 carryout at 266.2 mmt. For 24/25, global ending stocks are expected to drop slightly from 257.7 to 256.8 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy is targeting the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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11-6 End of Day: Grain Markets Shrug off Election Negativity to Close Well of the Lows

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • December corn closed at the top of its range and at the highest level since early October as technical buying, positive money flow, and strong demand kept buyers active following the election.
  • Soybeans settled mixed and near the top of the day’s nearly 26-cent range in the January contract, with support from sharply higher soybean oil, after initially trading sharply lower on election results.
  • Strong palm oil prices and concern regarding potential Trump tariffs on imported used cooking oil drove soybean oil prices to fresh 4-month highs. Meanwhile, December meal closed with only mild losses after printing fresh contract lows.
  • Despite the sharply higher US Dollar index, the wheat complex managed to trade well off the day’s lows, closing with relatively minor losses overall, supported by higher corn and Matif wheat.
  • To see updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.
  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • December corn futures closed at the top of the day’s trading range and posted its highest close in nearly a month as buyers stepped into the corn market. The markets in general saw a rebalancing after last night’s election results, and the corn market benefited from some positive money flowing into it.
  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Corn sales have remained strong, providing support to the corn market. A large portion of tomorrow’s sales are known from announced daily sales over the last week as Mexico and unknown destinations have been active buyers in the export market.
  • Corn export sales could remain friendly and support the market. The available export supplies of corn in Brazil are limited, keeping the US the most competitive export market. For the month of October, Brazil corn export shipments were 6.4 mmt (252 MB), down 24% from last year, but still above the average for the month. Only 2% of that corn went to China, but non-China corn exports were up 25% year over year.
  • Weekly ethanol production remained strong with production slightly higher week over week at 1.105 million barrels per day, up 5% over last year. A total of 111 mb of corn was used for production last week, which is still ahead of the target pace to reach USDA projections for the marketing year.
  • The US dollar surged to its highest point since early July as it traded sharply higher after the election results. If the dollar index can maintain its strength, that could be a headwind for higher corn and commodity prices in general.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. For those with capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day mixed with the front months trading higher and deferred contracts slightly lower. Soybeans recovered sharply from overnight lows that were up to 21 cents lower following the election results and concerns over future tariffs. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was sharply higher.
  • Trade estimates for Friday’s WASDE report see soybean ending stocks falling by 15 mb to 535 mb and the average soybean yield falling to 52.9 bpa from 53.1 bpa last month. World ending stocks are expected to be lowered slightly.
  • In Brazil, the 24/25 soybean crop is reportedly 53.3% planted, compared to 38% last week and 48% last year, according to Conab. This is the second-highest planting percentage for this time of year, despite an earlier drought that had caused some delays.
  • The Argentina’s soybean production is expected to be revised slightly higher to 51.3 mmt from 51.0 mmt last month, with Brazil’s production expected to be lowered to 168.6 mmt from 169.0 mmt last month. South American weather has remained rainy and beneficial for this time of year.

Above: Since mid-October the soybean market has been largely rangebound between 1018 on the topside and 980 down below. A breakout above 1018 could suggest a rally back toward the September highs, with intermediate resistance near the 100-day moving average. Whereas a close below 980 could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat ended mixed to slightly lower, showing resilience despite a strong surge in the US Dollar Index, which closed up 1.64 at 105.06, a level last seen in early July. Typically, wheat has an inverse relationship with the Dollar, making its performance, particularly with a close well off session lows, notable. Strength from higher US corn and Paris milling wheat likely supported today’s trade.
  • With the presidential election over, traders will likely focus to tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and Friday’s WASDE report. The Fed is expected to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut. Although no major changes are anticipated in US wheat numbers on Friday, global supply and demand figures could be a wildcard.
  • The US southern plains are expected to get another two or three inches of rain by the end of the weekend, which should go a long way in reducing drought conditions. However, more will be needed as traders will be keeping a close eye on updates to the drought monitor map.
  • Russian wheat stocks were at 38.7 mmt as of October 1, down 14% year-over-year, according to SovEcon. This decline is attributed to a combination of reduced production and record exports, which reached 15 mmt from July through September—a pace considered unsustainable.
  • The European Commission reported a 32% drop in EU soft wheat exports year-over-year as of November 3. Exports since the season’s start on July 1 reached 7.76 mmt, down from 11.33 mmt a year ago. Nigeria was the top buyer at 1.26 mmt, followed by Egypt and Morocco with smaller volumes.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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11-05 End of Day: Markets Settle Firm Following Quiet Election Day Trade

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market settled higher on the day, though just below yesterday’s highs, after a quiet session as traders squared positions ahead of today’s election results. 
  • Soybeans consolidated for the third consecutive day, settling higher and supported by lower crop estimates despite another drop in soybean oil as traders await election results. 
  • Soybean oil followed through on yesterday’s weakness to close with a 57 point loss. While meal ended the day mildly mixed and near unchanged. 
  • The wheat complex closed higher across all three classes, supported by a lower US dollar trading at two-week lows and additional buying interest near 565 that bolstered December Chicago wheat. 
  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and 7-day total precipitation for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section. 

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

For much of this fall, corn prices — primarily driven by improved export sales and a swift harvest — have largely traded sideways within a broad 400 – 430 range after rebounding from the August low. With the harvest drawing to a close, the market’s focus will shift toward demand and South American production. While expectations remain for large 2024 supplies, strong export and ethanol demand have brought the USDA’s estimated carryout to a less burdensome level, just below two billion bushels. With the upcoming WASDE report, the market may break out of this range depending on any adjustments the USDA decides to make. An increase in demand could push prices back toward the upper end of the range or higher, while minimal or no changes could allow prices to continue drifting sideways or even lower.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.
  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market posted a slight gain for the third consecutive session. With overall market news remaining quiet, traders squared positions in anticipation of today’s presidential election results. 
  • Corn futures have been trading within a narrow range since the end of October, specifically between 409 and 420 in the December contract since October 28. Throughout this period of sideways movement, managed funds have significantly reduced their short positions in the corn market, potentially positioning for the next move following today’s election. 
  • Corn demand has held steady in recent weeks, lending support to prices. The USDA announced a flash sale this morning, with unknown destinations purchasing 124,000 metric tons (4.9 mb) of corn for the current marketing year. 
  • In the weekly USDA Crop Progress report, corn harvest was reported at 91% complete, well above the 5-year average of 75%, as dry weather has helped accelerate the harvest pace. With harvest nearing completion, harvest pressure on the market will likely ease. 

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After peaking in early October, the soybean market declined as harvest activity and hedge pressure increased rapidly, driven by warm, dry conditions in the US and improving planting conditions in Brazil. With the harvest now in its final stages, we are entering a period when selling opportunities tend to improve as hedge pressure eases, and South American weather becomes a more dominant factor in their growing season. That said, managed funds hold a relatively small net short position, which creates the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions decline or US demand improves, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if South American conditions improve and US demand remains stagnant, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. For those with capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher, led again by the front months, while deferred months trailed. Trade was relatively quiet today as analysts await election results. Soybean meal ended mixed, while soybean oil was lower. Strong export demand before the election has been a key source of support, along with favorable crush numbers. 
  • This Friday, the USDA will release its Supply and Demand report. StoneX has just revised its soybean crop estimates significantly lower from last month, with yield estimates adjusted to 52.6 bpa, down from 53.5 bpa. It would not be surprising if the USDA also revises its estimate lower after recent dry periods likely impacted yields. 
  • Yesterday, the USDA’s Crop Progress report showed that 94% of the soybean crop has been harvested, up from 89% last week and above the 85% average for this time of year. With harvest nearly complete, it’s possible that harvest lows are already in. 
  • In Brazil, the 24/25 soybean crop is reportedly 54% planted, compared to 36% last week and 51% a year ago. This is the second-highest planting percentage for this time of year, despite an earlier drought that had caused some delays. 

Above: Since mid-October the soybean market has been largely rangebound between 1018 on the topside and 980 down below. A breakout above 1018 could suggest a rally back toward the September highs, with intermediate resistance near the 100-day moving average. Whereas a close below 980 could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat classes closed in the green today, supported by another drop in the US Dollar Index to two-week lows. Additionally, December Chicago wheat appears to be building support around the 565 level after testing it over the past four sessions. 
  • According to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, winter wheat was 87% planted as of November 3, just below last year’s pace of 88% and the average of 89%. Additionally, 66% of the crop has emerged, behind last year’s 72% and the average of 71%. The crop was rated 41% good to excellent, up 3% from the previous week, likely reflecting recent rains in wheat-growing areas. This compares with 50% good to excellent a year ago. 
  • Russia’s grain harvest may fall by 20-22 mmt due to inclement weather, according to the Russian ag minister. The harvest estimate has been adjusted closer to 130 mmt, down from the previous 150 mmt. 
  • Despite anticipated declines in domestic production, South African wheat imports are still expected to fall 7% this season, according to the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa. This is attributed to higher-than-normal stocks, which were boosted in recent months to take advantage of lower global prices. Stocks at the start of October totaled 753,000 mt, up 34% from the same time last year. 
  • As of November 4, Ukrainian farmers have planted 4.91 million hectares of winter grain, about 95% of the expected area, according to their ag ministry. Winter wheat, which accounts for roughly 95% of Ukraine’s total wheat production each year, is reported to be about 96% planted, covering 4.3 million hectares. 

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since reaching its recent high in early October, the Chicago wheat market has gradually moved lower as conditions in the Southern Hemisphere improved. While some production concerns in Australia appear to have eased, dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Despite more competitive Russian and Black Sea wheat prices, US export demand remains firm, though these lower prices may still limit US prices. However, any US crop concerns or increased demand could support higher prices. Additionally, the managed funds’ net short position is much smaller than it was in late July, giving them the flexibility to either extend their shorts or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the coming weeks.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since peaking in early October, the wheat market has gradually declined, influenced by improved crop conditions in the Southern Hemisphere. Production concerns in Australia have eased somewhat, but dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Although Russian and Black Sea wheat prices are more competitive, US export demand remains steady, though lower global prices could still limit US prices. However, potential issues with the US crop or a rise in demand could push prices higher. Additionally, managed funds’ net positions could now be considered mostly neutral, allowing flexibility to either extend short positions or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the weeks ahead.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).  

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

After peaking near the 200-day moving average in early October, Minneapolis wheat has been retreating toward its August low. At the same time, managed funds have started rebuilding some of their net short positions. While more competitive Russian export prices continue to limit upward potential, concerns about global wheat supplies persist, potentially increasing opportunities for US exports and driving prices back higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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11-4 End of Day: Grains Settle Mixed as They Await Volatile News This Week

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • December corn futures held onto small gains while the deferred months closed unchanged to fractionally mixed on light bull spreading ahead of potential high volatility through the remainder of the week.
  • Position squaring across all legs of the soybean complex led to a mixed close. Soybeans posted only modest gains after failing to break through Friday’s trading range, pressured by sharply lower soybean oil prices. Meanwhile, soybean meal closed higher, likely benefiting from some short covering and bargain hunting.
  • The wheat complex ended mixed on the day, with Chicago contracts down in all but December, while Kansas City and Minneapolis futures saw modest gains. Pressure from a lower close in Matif wheat futures contributed to the consolidation, as all three classes await potentially market-moving news this week.
  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, and the 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

For much of this fall, corn prices — primarily driven by improved export sales and a swift harvest — have largely traded sideways within a broad 400 – 430 range after rebounding from the August low. With the harvest drawing to a close, the market’s focus will shift toward demand and South American production. While expectations remain for large 2024 supplies, strong export and ethanol demand have brought the USDA’s estimated carryout to a less burdensome level, just below two billion bushels. With the upcoming WASDE report, the market may break out of this range depending on any adjustments the USDA decides to make. An increase in demand could push prices back toward the upper end of the range or higher, while minimal or no changes could allow prices to continue drifting sideways or even lower.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.
  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures faded off early session highs to finish mixed on the day with December corn holding light gains. This week brings a lot of information and possible instability into the markets. The combination of the US Presidential election, possible Fed interest rate cut and USDA baseline projections on Thursday and USDA report on Friday will likely keep the market extremely volatile.
  • The USDA released weekly corn export inspections during the session. Last week, US shipped 779,000 mt (30.7 mb) of corn, which was at the lower end of expectations. Total inspections are up 34% year-over-year and running above the necessary pace to reach USDA projections.
  • The USDA announced two flash sales of corn before the daily session this morning. Mexico bought 150,000 mt (5.9 mb) and Unknown destinations bought 120,000 mt (4.7 mb) of corn for delivery during the current marketing year.
  • After the market works through the volatility of this week, the historical trend in December corn futures is soft going into the Thanksgiving Day and the “First Notice Day” time windows. This time frame is when basis contracts and stored bushels will likely need to be priced or rolled to deferred months. That action likely will limit the market’s upside potential.
  • Managed Money positioning has continued to reduce their short position in the corn market. As of October 29, Managed funds held a net short position of 17,703 contracts of corn, reducing the position by 53,796 contracts. This is the smallest net short position by the managed funds for the 2024 calendar year.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After peaking in early October, the soybean market declined as harvest activity and hedge pressure increased rapidly, driven by warm, dry conditions in the US and improving planting conditions in Brazil. With the harvest now in its final stages, we are entering a period when selling opportunities tend to improve as hedge pressure eases, and South American weather becomes a more dominant factor in their growing season. That said, managed funds hold a relatively small net short position, which creates the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions decline or US demand improves, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if South American conditions improve and US demand remains stagnant, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. For those with capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The soybean complex closed the day mixed, with soybeans settling well off their highs, weighed down by profit-taking in soybean oil, which closed sharply lower but well off its lows. Meanwhile, soybean meal likely saw some short covering and small speculative buying from the recent downtrend and massive fund liquidation to close higher on the day.
  • Export activity remains solid this year. This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations. Although weekly export inspections for the period ending Oct. 31 came in lower at 2.159 million metric tons, total soybean export inspections are at 12.8 million metric tons, up 4% from last year.
  • The USDA reported a total of 186.5 million bushels of soybeans crushed in September, marking a 6.7% increase from last year and a record high for the month. Soybean oil stocks came in below expectations and at the lowest month-end level in over 10 years, at just over 1.5 billion pounds.
  • Brazilian ag consulting firm Patria Agronegocios reported that Brazil’s 24/25 soybean crop is 52.9% planted, compared to 50.6% at the same time last year. In the same vein, AgRural also reported that Brazil’s soybean planting pace has advanced, reaching 54% complete, an 18% advance from the week prior.
  • The Commitment of Traders report released on Friday by the CFTC showed that managed funds sold 12,652 soybean futures contracts, expanding their net short position to 72,226 contracts. The report also showed that managed funds sold a jaw dropping 43,550 contracts of soybean meal, bringing their net long position down to just about 9,000 contracts. This massive sell off in meal could explain some of today’s price action.

Above: Since mid-October the soybean market has been largely rangebound between 1018 on the topside and 980 down below. A breakout above 1018 could suggest a rally back toward the September highs, with intermediate resistance near the 100-day moving average. Whereas a close below 980 could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed mixed, with Chicago wheat down in all but the December contract, while Kansas City and Minneapolis futures posted small gains. The US Dollar Index was modestly lower at the grains’ close, but a 2.00 – 3.25 euro decline in Matif wheat futures likely pressured the US market.
  • Wheat and the broader grain complex are awaiting several key pieces of potentially market-moving news this week. First is tomorrow’s US presidential election, which may increase market volatility regardless of the outcome. Second is the FOMC meeting, where the Fed is expected to issue a 25 basis point interest rate cut. Finally, on Friday, traders will receive the USDA’s monthly WASDE report.
  • Weekly wheat export inspections reached 7.1 million bushels, slightly below expectations, but total 24/25 inspections have now reached 358 million bushels, up 35% from last year. Inspections continue to exceed the USDA’s estimated pace for the year, with the USDA projecting 24/25 exports to reach 825 mb, a 17% increase over last year.
  • According to IKAR, Russia’s wheat export values ended last week at $232 per mt FOB, unchanged from the previous week but still below the suggested November price floor of $245. Additionally, SovEcon reported that Russia exported 1.2 million metric tons of grain last week, with wheat accounting for 94% of that total.
  • Rainfall over the weekend in US HRW wheat areas fell short of expectations; however, storms are currently moving across parts of Kansas, Texas, and Oklahoma. Over the next 7–10 days, additional precipitation is expected across the central US, with up to three more systems potentially helping to relieve drought conditions in the western and southern Plains.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since reaching its recent high in early October, the Chicago wheat market has gradually moved lower as conditions in the Southern Hemisphere improved. While some production concerns in Australia appear to have eased, dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Despite more competitive Russian and Black Sea wheat prices, US export demand remains firm, though these lower prices may still limit US prices. However, any US crop concerns or increased demand could support higher prices. Additionally, the managed funds’ net short position is much smaller than it was in late July, giving them the flexibility to either extend their shorts or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the coming weeks.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since peaking in early October, the wheat market has gradually declined, influenced by improved crop conditions in the Southern Hemisphere. Production concerns in Australia have eased somewhat, but dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Although Russian and Black Sea wheat prices are more competitive, US export demand remains steady, though lower global prices could still limit US prices. However, potential issues with the US crop or a rise in demand could push prices higher. Additionally, managed funds’ net positions could now be considered mostly neutral, allowing flexibility to either extend short positions or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the weeks ahead.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

After peaking near the 200-day moving average in early October, Minneapolis wheat has been retreating toward its August low. At the same time, managed funds have started rebuilding some of their net short positions. While more competitive Russian export prices continue to limit upward potential, concerns about global wheat supplies persist, potentially increasing opportunities for US exports and driving prices back higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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11-1 End of Day: Firm Close on Friday for Corn, as Beans and Wheat Retreat

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn settled near the day’s highs following a day of two-sided trade as the market found support from another large flash sale to Mexico but failed to close above resistance for the fifth consecutive day.
  • The soybean market closed with minor losses after failing to maintain its earlier strength from additional flash sales and sharply higher soybean oil, as weakness in meal weighed on prices.
  • The wheat complex posted minor losses across all three classes following another day of consolidation and choppy trade, with overhead resistance coming from lower Matif wheat and expectations of much needed rain over the weekend.
  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8-14 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the Seasonal Drought Outlook, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

For much of this fall, corn prices — primarily driven by improved export sales and a swift harvest — have largely traded sideways within a broad 400 – 430 range after rebounding from the August low. With the harvest drawing to a close, the market’s focus will shift toward demand and South American production. While expectations remain for large 2024 supplies, strong export and ethanol demand have brought the USDA’s estimated carryout to a less burdensome level, just below two billion bushels. With the upcoming WASDE report, the market may break out of this range depending on any adjustments the USDA decides to make. An increase in demand could push prices back toward the upper end of the range or higher, while minimal or no changes could allow prices to continue drifting sideways or even lower.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.
  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished the session slightly higher as prices consolidated for the fifth consecutive session.  Announced export sales and a strong crude oil market helped support corn futures on the day.  For the week, corn futures managed to trade slightly lower, losing ¾ of a cent in a quiet week with a less than 6 cent trading range from high to low.
  • Mexico stepped in the US corn export market with a relatively large purchase. The USDA announced that Mexico purchased 781,322 mt of corn. The sales were split, with 715,800 mt for this marketing year and 65,532 mt for next year.
  • Corn export sales have remained strong for the first part of the marketing year. Total corn sales commitments for the 24/25 marketing year have reached 1.016 billion bushel in 24/25 and are up 41% from a year ago. This is ahead of the USDA’s projected pace, and the USDA may need to adjust the demand side of the corn balance sheet in future USDA reports.
  • As harvest wraps up, November can historically be a challenging month for corn prices, as producers often need to set prices on remaining bushels. With First Notice Day for the December contract approaching on November 29, producers holding basis contracts or storing commercial bushels will need to make pricing decisions beforehand, which often puts pressure on market prices.
  • The US presidential election on Tuesday, November 5, could bring volatility to the corn market as it positions itself for election results. Additionally, the November WASDE report, with the next round of crop production estimates for the current marketing year, is set for release on Friday, November 8.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After peaking in early October, the soybean market declined as harvest activity and hedge pressure increased rapidly, driven by warm, dry conditions in the US and improving planting conditions in Brazil. With the harvest now in its final stages, we are entering a period when selling opportunities tend to improve as hedge pressure eases, and South American weather becomes a more dominant factor in their growing season. That said, managed funds hold a relatively small net short position, which creates the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions decline or US demand improves, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if South American conditions improve and US demand remains stagnant, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. For those with capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly lower after mixed trade. Prices were initially higher overnight and this morning before fading toward the close, dragged down by falling soybean meal. Early support came from large export sales, while soybean oil continued its trend with a higher close today.
  • This morning, the USDA reported multiple private export flash sales. 132,000 metric tons of soybeans were reported for delivery to China for the 24/25 marketing year. Another 198,000 metric tons were sold for delivery to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year, and 30,000 metric tons of soybean oil was sold for delivery to India for 24/25.
  • For the week, November soybeans lost 5 ¼ cents to 982 ½ while March soybeans lost just ¾ cent to 1008 ¼. December meal lost $10.50 to $295.30, making new contract lows while soybean oil gained 2.15 cents to 46.30 cents.
  • Higher palm oil prices have been the main driver for soybeans and soybean oil recently as energy prices have rebounded. This supports renewable diesel production and has helped world veg oil prices. The downside of this has been that the increase in crush has created an excess of soybean meal.

Above: Since mid-October the soybean market has been largely rangebound between 1018 on the topside and 980 down below. A breakout above 1018 could suggest a rally back toward the September highs, with intermediate resistance near the 100-day moving average. Whereas a close below 980 could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a day of two-sided trade, wheat posted small losses across all three classes. In addition to a sharp rebound in the US Dollar Index today, another lower close for Matif wheat also pressured the complex. Furthermore, widespread rain coverage is expected over the weekend for key US wheat-growing areas, which should help improve conditions.
  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat harvest is now 7.7% complete as of October 31. Additionally, the exchange left their production estimate unchanged at 18.6 mmt, which would exceed last year’s 15.1 mmt wheat crop.
  • In a report from the European Commission, the estimate for total EU grain production in 24/25 has been reduced from 260.9 mmt to 255.6 mmt. Corn and soft wheat production saw the largest declines, with the latter dropping from 114.6 mmt to 112.6 mmt. Durum wheat production, however, remains unchanged at 7.2 mmt.
  • In June, Turkey implemented a four-month halt on wheat imports. Last month, millers were advised they could import only 15 tons for every 85 tons purchased from the Turkish grain board. However, according to a report by the USDA FAS attaché, Turkey’s import restrictions are likely to continue through year-end, as they work to reduce an overabundance of domestic wheat.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since reaching its recent high in early October, the Chicago wheat market has gradually moved lower as conditions in the Southern Hemisphere improved. While some production concerns in Australia appear to have eased, dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Despite more competitive Russian and Black Sea wheat prices, US export demand remains firm, though these lower prices may still limit US prices. However, any US crop concerns or increased demand could support higher prices. Additionally, the managed funds’ net short position is much smaller than it was in late July, giving them the flexibility to either extend their shorts or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the coming weeks.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since peaking in early October, the wheat market has gradually declined, influenced by improved crop conditions in the Southern Hemisphere. Production concerns in Australia have eased somewhat, but dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Although Russian and Black Sea wheat prices are more competitive, US export demand remains steady, though lower global prices could still limit US prices. However, potential issues with the US crop or a rise in demand could push prices higher. Additionally, managed funds’ net positions could now be considered mostly neutral, allowing flexibility to either extend short positions or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the weeks ahead.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

After peaking near the 200-day moving average in early October, Minneapolis wheat has been retreating toward its August low. At the same time, managed funds have started rebuilding some of their net short positions. While more competitive Russian export prices continue to limit upward potential, concerns about global wheat supplies persist, potentially increasing opportunities for US exports and driving prices back higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.