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10-10 End of Day: Wheat Higher, Corn and Soybeans Slide Ahead of WASDE Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures slid lower today to their lowest close of the month ahead of Friday’s WASDE report where traders expect a slight reduction in the national yield estimate. Export sales of corn last week were strong yet again with unknown destinations as the top buyer.

  • Soybean futures backtracked today reversing the gains made on Wednesday ahead of tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report. Soybean meal futures were lower for a seventh consecutive session while soybean oil moved higher following sharply higher crude prices.

  • Wheat futures held onto marginal gains on Thursday as prices hung near the top end of the recent range. Export sales were as expected for wheat last week providing underlying support.

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor, and the 1-week precipitation forecast for South America, courtesy of the NDMC, NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed, US demand has picked up, and South American weather has been dry. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop could limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers have found value at these multi-year low price levels. Now that managed funds have covered a significant portion of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or continued South American dryness could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields are strong and South American weather turns more seasonal, prices could be at risk of retreating from recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June, we recommended purchasing Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, due to their relative value and the typically high market volatility during that time of year, and we continue to target a value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting at this level will allow you to lock in gains that offset much of the original position’s cost, while holding the remaining 510 calls at or near a net-neutral cost. This strategy should continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence for further sales during an extended rally. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices finished the session lower on Thursday due to hedge pressure and likely position squaring before Friday’s USDA WASDE Report. It was a difficult close technically as prices failed to hold early session strength and closed under the 420 level on the Dec contract. This could trigger additional selling going into the evening session.

  • USDA will release the October Crop Production and Supply/Demand report on Friday morning at 11:00 CST. Expectations are for corn yield to decrease slightly to 183.5 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels from last month. With improved demand and slightly lower potential production, corn carryout for the marketing year is looking to be lowered for the fourth consecutive month, with the average trade guess at 1.988 billion bushels.

  • The market will be focused on the demand side of the balance sheet for corn to see if USDA will make adjustments. Export demand and ethanol usage are off to a strong start in the marketing year. The marketing year is only a few weeks old (starting on Sept 1) but increases in demand and moving carryout projection under 2.000 billion could give the market a psychological boost, even though stocks are still at 4-year highs.

  • The weekly export sales report was within expectations on Thursday morning. As of October 3, new export sales totaled 1.222 MMT (48.1 mb). Mexico continued to be the top buyer of US corn. Total corn sales are now at 695 mb, up 15% over last year and the fifth best set of sales for this time in the last 10 years.

  • Brazilian and Argentina corn prices have been climbing in recent sessions, due to lack of farmer selling and an overall tighter supply picture in South America. The increase in prices should help keep US prices supported in the spring months, boosting our possible export figures.

Above: The recent close above the 200-day moving average was met with resistance near 434 and prices retreated. Support below the market could come in between 420 and 416, near the 100-day ma. Below there, further support could be found between 410 and 400.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The soybean complex closed the day mixed with soybeans settling lower as they came under pressure from seventh consecutive day of lower prices in meal, improved planting conditions in Brazil, which is seeing increased rain activity, and continued harvest pressure from the quick US harvest pace.

  • In today’s weekly export sales report, the USDA reported 46.45 million bushels of new sales for the 24/25 marketing year in the week ending October 3. This brings total commitments to 740 mb, up 4% versus last year, but behind the USDA’s forecast of a 9% increase. The primary destination was China with 21.4 mb, of which 8.1 mb were switched from unknown destinations.

  • Tomorrow, the USDA will release the next WASDE report with updated production and supply/demand information. Expectations are for soybean yield to remain mostly steady from last month at 53.2 bushels per acre, with carryout for the current 24/25 marketing year expected to be lowered slightly to 546 million bushels.

  • Weather conditions across the Midwest are expected to remain dry with above normal temperatures, which should allow harvest to continue at a good clip. The quick harvest pace may continue to limit rally potential with hedge pressure as bushels are sold across the scales.

Above: The break below 1030 support puts the market at risk of trading lower and testing support between the 50-day moving average and 995. Should this area hold, and prices turn back higher, overhead resistance remains near 1070 and the 100-day moving average.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • US wheat futures closed higher again today across the board, alongside a higher close for Matif wheat futures. After the grain close the US Dollar is about unchanged but has traded both sides of neutral today; wheat remained relatively steady through the session despite the fact that the Dollar did break back above 103. Traders’ focus may still be on Black Sea tensions, with reports that a Russian missile attack yesterday against Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odessa killed six people and injured eight others.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 15.9 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.2 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 13.2 mb fell below the 14.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. Total sales commitments have reached 443 mb, which is up 19% from last year.

  • Pre-report estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report look relatively neutral, if not slightly supportive for wheat. The average guess for US 24/25 carryout comes in at 821 mb, which would be down from 828 mb in September. As far as world numbers are concerned, 23/24 wheat ending stocks are projected at 265.0 mmt vs 265.3 mmt last month, while 24/25 ending stocks are estimated to come in at 256.4 mmt vs 257.2 mmt in September.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange is said to have lowered their estimate of Argentina’s wheat production by 1 mmt to 19.5 mmt due to dryness. For reference, this is still above the USDA’s figure of 18 mmt. While Argentina has received some recent rainfall, it may be too little too late for the wheat crop.

  • According to the USDA as of October 8, about 47% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions. This is up from 44% the week prior. In addition, spring wheat areas saw an increase from 22% to 29% for the same time period.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through September also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although low Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while also targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts, in case the market turns toward new lows.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December KC wheat has been consolidating between the recent high of 623 and 592 down below. A close above 623 could set the market up to test the 50% retracement level of 637 back toward the May high. Whereas a close below 592 could put the market at risk of retreating further, with support coming in near 581, and again between 571 and 561.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent breakout was met with resistance just below the 200-day moving average, a close above which could put the market on track to run towards 685. Below the market, initial support remains near the 100-day ma, with further support near 604.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-9 End of Day: Soybeans Find Support on Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The Wednesday session for corn started with another daily export flash sale announcement of corn sold to unknown destinations but ended with corn closing near unchanged across all contact months.

  • Soybeans managed to find support on Wednesday after Tuesday’s poor price action. Soybean meal was lower for a sixth consecutive session while soybean oil closed near unchanged on the day.

  • With a mostly dry two-week outlook for nearly the entire Corn Belt, corn and soybean harvest will be able to continue progressing rapidly.

  • Higher world wheat prices lifted US wheat futures higher across the board on Wednesday. Weather worries around the globe have continued to provide support to wheat over the last six weeks.

  • To see the updated US Weeks 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 1-week precipitation forecast for South America, courtesy of NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed, US demand has picked up, and South American weather has been dry. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop could limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers have found value at these multi-year low price levels. Now that managed funds have covered a significant portion of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or continued South American dryness could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields are strong and South American weather turns more seasonal, prices could be at risk of retreating from recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June, we recommended purchasing Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, due to their relative value and the typically high market volatility during that time of year, and we continue to target a value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting at this level will allow you to lock in gains that offset much of the original position’s cost, while holding the remaining 510 calls at or near a net-neutral cost. This strategy should continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence for further sales during an extended rally. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Overall, it was a quiet session in the corn market on Wednesday as Dec corn seems to be pinned to the 420 area on the chart. Slight buying strength in wheat and soybeans helped support corn prices. Trading range from high to low on Dec corn was 3 ½ cents during the session.

  • USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Tuesday morning. Uknown destinations bought 126,000MT (5.0 mb) of U.S. corn for the current marketing year.

  • Weekly US ethanol production continues to show strength. Production last week increased by 23,000 barrels per day to 1.038 million. Current corn usage is ahead of the expected pace for the current marketing year.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for corn export sales from last week are to range from 900,000 – 1.7 MMT of new sales. On last week’s report, corn export sales totaled 1.684 MMT.

  • The USDA will release the next Crop Production and Supply/Demand report on Friday morning. Expectations are for corn yield to decrease slightly to 183.5 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels from last month. With improved demand, and slightly lower potential production, corn carryout for the marketing year is looking to be lowered for the fourth consecutive month to just below the key psychological level of 2.000 billion bushels.

Above: The recent close above the 200-day moving average was met with resistance near 434 and prices retreated. Support below the market could come in between 420 and 416, near the 100-day ma. Below there, further support could be found between 410 and 400.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans managed a positive close today, despite yesterday’s negative price action and continued improvements to Brazil’s rainfall outlook. Technical support levels may have aided today’s small rally. For the November contract, both the 40- and 50-day moving averages are converged around the 1010 level – this was tested yesterday and again today, indicating it may be a key area of support.

  • The decline in the Chinese stock market on Wednesday may cause concerns about their economy, and thus their demand for soybeans. Beijing’s attempt at economic stimulus has reportedly been disappointing, and this could pressure US commodity and equity markets.

  • On a bullish note, the potential for higher biodiesel mandates in Indonesia could lead to a tightening supply of palm oil. This, in turn, could support US soybean oil futures. Currently, Indonesia has a 35% mandated palm oil blend in their biodiesel, but that could be increased to 40%. It is estimated this would lead to 1.5-1.7 mmt additional palm oil use.

  • Brazil weather stays as a focus in the soybean market. Rain chances continue to improve, especially for the middle to last half of October. Brazil soybean planting is 4.5% complete according to Brazil analyst, AgRural. This was up 2% week over week, but down 5.5% from last year. 

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning.  Expectations for news sales last week are to range from 800,000 – 1.7 MMT. Last week’s report posted sales of 1.444 MMt, which was within the range of estimates for the report. Current soybean demand has been good, supporting prices.

Above: The break below 1030 support puts the market at risk of trading lower and testing support between the 50-day moving average and 995. Should this area hold, and prices turn back higher, overhead resistance remains near 1070 and the 100-day moving average.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was again the upside leader today in the grain complex. Initial strength came from a gap higher in Paris milling wheat futures. However, the Matif wheat ended up closing in the red, yet US futures rejected that negativity. Support also came from higher Ukrainian export quotes after the recent attacks on grain vessels.

  • The Russian agriculture ministry is reported to have called for an emergency meeting of grain exporters on Friday. The focus of the meeting will be discussion surrounding potential export restrictions. Part of the reason for this could be dryness in southern Russia, especially with winter grain planting finishing soon.

  • According to the Rosario Grains Exchange, recent rains in key growing regions of Argentina have not been enough to reverse potential losses in many wheat fields. In the last 24 hours Argentina is said to have received 2-10 millimeters of rain, but as stated by the exchange, 25-30 millimeters were needed. In addition, the exchange is estimating their 24/25 wheat production at 20.5 mmt, but has said they will likely cut that estimate due to dryness.

  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports are down 29% year on year, since the season began on July 1. As of October 6, their exports have reached 6.35 mmt compared with 8.9 mmt the year prior. The top importers were north African nations, led by Nigeria at 937,000 mt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through September also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although low Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat production.  July ’25 KC wheat is now about 100 cents off the August low, which represents nearly a 50% retracement back towards last spring’s highs. Considering the extent of this rally and that there may be considerable resistance overhead, we suggest taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on a portion of your anticipated 2025 hard red winter wheat crop, using either July ’25 KC wheat futures, or a July ’25 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The recent rally was capped by resistance around 623. A close back above that level could put the market on track to test the 50% retracement level of 637 back toward the May high. Down below, the market may find trendline support near 581, with further support between 571 and 561.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent breakout was met with resistance just below the 200-day moving average, a close above which could put the market on track to run towards 685. Below the market, initial support remains near the 100-day ma, with trendline support near 610.

Other Charts / Weather

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10-8 End of Day: Wheat Closes Firm as Corn and Soybeans Slide

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover weakness from the soybean market and sharply lower crude oil kept sellers active in the corn market, which closed at its lowest level in six sessions and toward the bottom of its nearly 9-cent range in the December contract.

  • A quick harvest pace, anticipated rain in Brazil, and sharply lower soybean oil weighed heavily on the soybean market, which closed at the low end of its 28-cent trading range (November). Soybean oil prices closed sharply lower in sympathy with crude oil, which dropped nearly 4.5% on talk of a potential ceasefire in the Middle East. Meanwhile, meal closed with a minor $1 loss

  • The wheat complex closed mid-range and on the positive side of unchanged across all three classes despite losses in corn, soybeans and crude oil. Continued tensions in the Black Sea, a firm close in Matif wheat, and another day of consolidation in the US dollar, all offered support.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 2-week precipitation forecast for South America, courtesy of NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed, US demand has picked up, and South American weather has been dry. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop could limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers have found value at these multi-year low price levels. Now that managed funds have covered a significant portion of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or continued South American dryness could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields are strong and South American weather turns more seasonal, prices could be at risk of retreating from recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June, we recommended purchasing Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, due to their relative value and the typically high market volatility during that time of year, and we continue to target a value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting at this level will allow you to lock in gains that offset much of the original position’s cost, while holding the remaining 510 calls at or near a net-neutral cost. This strategy should continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence for further sales during an extended rally. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong selling in the crude oil market and the soybeans triggered some long liquidation in the corn market on Tuesday. December corn futures posted its lowest close in the past 6 days, and the chart looks challenged technically, which could bring additional negative money flow.

  • The favorable midwestern weather has pushed corn harvest over the past week. On Monday’s Crop Progress report, corn harvest gained 9% to 30% complete. This was 3% above the 5-year average and below analysts’ expectations. The pace of corn harvest has been limited as producers focus on the soybean harvest.

  • Talk of potential ceasefire negotiations between Hezbollah and Israel triggered strong selling in the crude oil market. November crude oil pushed 5% lower during the session, which pressured the overall commodity complex on Tuesday.

  • The USDA will release the next Crop Production and Supply/Demand report on Friday morning. Expectations are for corn yield to decrease slightly to 183.5 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels from last month. With improved demand, and slightly lower potential production, corn carryout for the marketing year is looking to be lowered for the fourth consecutive month to just below the key psychological level of 2.000 billion bushels.

Above: The recent close above the 200-day moving average was met with resistance near 434 and prices retreated. Support below the market could come in between 420 and 416, near the 100-day ma. Below there, further support could be found between 410 and 400.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Above: Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (brown).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly lower for the fifth consecutive day as pressure from rains in Brazil bring funds back to the market as sellers. US harvest pressure has been a bearish factor as well, but trade is likely more focused on Brazilian production. November futures traded down to the 50-day moving average but recovered slightly.

  • Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower, but soybean oil was down sharply as it followed crude oil which is currently down $3.25 per barrel. The decline in crude oil came after Hezbollah allegedly said that it would consider a ceasefire in Israel following months of intense fighting.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that the good to excellent rating in soybeans fell 1 point from last week to 63% but was in line with the trade estimate. 90% of the crop is dropping leaves, compared to 91% a year ago, and 47% of the crop is now harvested.

  • This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 166,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year. This followed a sale yesterday to unknown destinations of 172,500 mt for the 24/25 marketing year.

Above: The break below 1030 support puts the market at risk of trading lower and testing support between the 50-day moving average and 995. Should this area hold, and prices turn back higher, overhead resistance remains near 1070 and the 100-day moving average.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Above: Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat managed to just squeeze out a positive close, rejecting pressure from sharply lower soybeans and energy prices. Another day of consolidation for the US Dollar Index, as well as a higher close for Matif wheat futures lent support to the US market. Tensions in the Black Sea do remain elevated, which could also account for today’s relative strength in wheat as there are reports of a second grain vessel that was targeted by Russian missiles yesterday.

  • According to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, as of October 6, the US winter wheat crop was 51% planted. Both last year’s pace and the 5-year average come in just above that at 52%. Additionally, 25% of the crop is reported to be emerged, which is in line with both last year and the average as well.

  • The EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit is estimating the 2024 Kazakhstan spring wheat crop at 16.7 mmt compared with 11.3 mmt a year ago. Mild temperatures and good rains led to excellent growing conditions. Additionally, Kazakhstan’s ag ministry is expecting a 25 mmt total grain harvest this marketing year, with exports estimated to hit 12 mmt.

  • Ukraine’s grain exports have totaled 11.2 mmt since the export season began on July 1, up 56% year over year compared to 7.2 mmt during the same period last year. Of that total, 6.5 mmt is wheat, marking an 80% year over year increase. Additionally, Ukraine has reportedly planted 2.88 million hectares of winter grain, with 2.62 million hectares being wheat.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through September also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although low Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat production.  July ’25 KC wheat is now about 100 cents off the August low, which represents nearly a 50% retracement back towards last spring’s highs. Considering the extent of this rally and that there may be considerable resistance overhead, we suggest taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on a portion of your anticipated 2025 hard red winter wheat crop, using either July ’25 KC wheat futures, or a July ’25 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The recent rally was capped by resistance around 623. A close back above that level could put the market on track to test the 50% retracement level of 637 back toward the May high. Down below, the market may find trendline support near 581, with further support between 571 and 561.

Above: Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Above: Winter wheat percentage emerged (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and versus last year (brown).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent breakout was met with resistance just below the 200-day moving average, a close above which could put the market on track to run towards 685. Below the market, initial support remains near the 100-day ma, with trendline support near 610.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-7 End of Day: Grains Close Mixed on Monday; Corn and Wheat Higher, Beans Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • With support from the higher wheat market and another reported flash sale to Mexico, the corn market shrugged off overnight lows to close at the top end of its trading range.

  • Despite strong weekly export inspections numbers, another flash sale to unknown destinations, and strength in soybean oil, soybeans found themselves weighed down by lower soybean meal, which lost nearly 2% in the December contract as it continued lower on recent weakness.

  • With little fresh news to trade, all three wheat classes closed higher on the day, as support near the 100-day moving average held across all three classes, keeping buyers engaged. Additional war premium may have also been factored in, following reports of a Ukrainian cargo ship being hit by Russian missiles while in port.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 1-week precipitation forecast for South America, courtesy of NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed, US demand has picked up, and South American weather has been dry. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop could limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers have found value at these multi-year low price levels. Now that managed funds have covered a significant portion of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or continued South American dryness could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields are strong and South American weather turns more seasonal, prices could be at risk of retreating from recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June, we recommended purchasing Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, due to their relative value and the typically high market volatility during that time of year. Although we no longer have an upside objective for additional sales for now, we continue to target a value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting at this level will allow you to lock in gains that offset much of the original position’s cost, while holding the remaining 510 calls at or near a net-neutral cost. This strategy should continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence for further sales during an extended rally. Since harvest time is not an advantageous sales window, we will begin evaluating market conditions once it concludes and target areas for additional sales recommendations in late fall or early winter.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished slightly higher to start the week supported by light buying strength in the wheat market and overnight activity in the export market.

  • Mexico purchased 155,000 mt (6.1 mb) for corn in an overnight flash sale. Mexico maintains itself as the top buyer of US corn for the 24/25 market year. This was the third published sale of corn posted in October.

  • Harvest pressure will continue to limit the corn market’s rally potential. Last week, the corn harvest was 21% complete, but expectations are for that number to climb as the weather has been very favorable for harvest progress. The harvest pace will be updated on the USDA Crop Progress report to be released Monday afternoon.

  • The weekly export inspections for corn were within analysts’ expectations. Last week, the US shipped 933,000 mt (36.7 mb) of corn. Early in the market year, exports totaled 168 mb, up 22% from last year and supportive in the corn market.

  • Managed money has covered a large portion of its net short position in the corn market. In last Friday’s Commitment of Traders report, managed funds reduced their net short position to 68,000 contracts, trimming the position by 63,000 contracts as of Oct. 1. Funds were net short 350,000 contracts in early July and have since removed nearly 300,000 of them.

Above: The recent close above the 200-day moving average was met with resistance near 434 and prices retreated. Support below the market could come in between 420 and 416, near the 100-day ma. Below there, further support could be found between 410 and 400.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 63,000 contracts between Sept. 25 – Oct. 1, bringing their total position to a net short 67,699 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. While we don’t currently have a target range for additional sales, because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous prices, we will begin evaluating market conditions once it concludes and will target areas for additional sales recommendations in late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly lower but recovered from earlier morning lows. There has been some pressure lately from an improved Brazilian weather forecast and US harvest pressure, but a flash sale this morning likely added some support. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher with support from higher crude oil.

  • This morning, the USDA reported a private export sale totaling 172,500 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. This may be going to China despite the fact that they have been on their golden week holiday.

  • Today’s export inspections report was solid for soybeans as they came in above the high end of trade estimates. Inspections for soybeans totaled 52.6 mb for the week ending October 3 and put total inspections for 24/25 at 125 mb, down 1% from the previous year. The USDA estimates soybean exports to be up 9% from the previous year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of October 1, funds bought back 40,092 contracts of soybeans, leaving them net short 40,092 contracts. In the past three sessions leading up to today, funds are estimated to have sold 3,500 contracts.

Above: Since rallying above the 50-day moving average, the soybean market has largely traded sideways, between 1030 down below, and 1070 up top. A breakout to the downside could be met with support between the 50-day ma (near 1010) and 995. Conversely, a close above 1070, could be met with psychological resistance near 1100, with further resistance around the 200-day ma, currently near 1140.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 40,092 contracts between Sept. 25 – Oct. 1, bringing their total position to a net short 34,886 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted gains today in all three US classes. The market was aided in part by the US Dollar index taking a breather from the recent strong uptrend. There was not much fresh major news to drive today’s higher trade, which may indicate that speculative buying also played a part.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 13.4 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 316 mb, which is up 35% from last year and running above the USDA’s forecasted pace. Additionally, US 24/25 exports are estimated at 825 mb, which is up 17% from the year prior.

  • Weather-wise, Argentina has some rain in the forecast that should benefit its wheat crop. Elsewhere, Russia and Ukraine remain too dry overall, though a few showers in eastern Ukraine and western Russia have slightly eased drought conditions. Parts of Europe are also too wet, and Hurricane Kirk is headed that way. It will likely be downgraded to a tropical storm by the time it makes landfall but will still bring heavy rain to parts of France and Germany.

  • It was reported today that a Russian missile hit a Ukrainian ship in the port of Pivdennyi over the weekend. While this particular vessel was said to be filled with corn, it still may have affected the wheat market as more war premium was factored in.

  • According to IKAR, Russia’s wheat export price ended last week at $223 per mt, which would be up $1 from the week prior. Additionally, SovEcon reported that Russia shipped 870,000 mt of grain last week compared to 1.3 mmt the week before. Wheat, in particular accounted for 800,000 mt of the total and compares with 1.29 mmt the prior week.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,516 contracts between Sept. 25 – Oct. 1, bringing their total position to a net short 22,953 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through September also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although low Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat production.  July ’25 KC wheat is now about 100 cents off the August low, which represents nearly a 50% retracement back towards last spring’s highs. Considering the extent of this rally and that there may be considerable resistance overhead, we suggest taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on a portion of your anticipated 2025 hard red winter wheat crop, using either July ’25 KC wheat futures, or a July ’25 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The recent rally was capped by resistance around 623. A close back above that level could put the market on track to test the 50% retracement level of 637 back toward the May high. Down below, the market may find trendline support near 581, with further support between 571 and 561.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,676 contracts between Sept. 25 – Oct. 1, bringing their total position to a net short 15,270 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent breakout was met with resistance just below the 200-day moving average, a close above which could put the market on track to run towards 685. Below the market, initial support remains near the 100-day ma, with trendline support near 610.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,910 contracts between Sept. 25 – Oct. 1, bringing their total position to a net short 13,754 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-4 End of Day: Markets Settle Lower as Prices Fade Heading into the Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Weighed down by lower soybeans and wheat, the corn market quietly traded lower and settled near the bottom of its 4 ½ cent range in the December contract, as selling pressure followed through from Thursday’s weakness.

  • Early strength in the soybean market from the ending of the dockworkers’ strike, faded as traders turned sellers in response to ongoing harvest pressure and forecasts showing additional rain in the dry areas of Brazil.

  • The wheat complex settled near the session’s lows for all three classes as the selling continued from Thursday’s weak trade. A gap lower opening and weaker trade in Matif wheat, improved rain chances for the dry areas of Russia and Ukraine, and a stronger US dollar, all contributed to the weakness.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 2-week precipitation forecast for South America, courtesy of NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed, US demand has picked up, and South American weather has been dry. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop could limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers have found value at these multi-year low price levels. Now that managed funds have covered a significant portion of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or continued South American dryness could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields are strong and South American weather turns more seasonal, prices could be at risk of retreating from recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June, we recommended purchasing Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, due to their relative value and the typically high market volatility during that time of year. Although we no longer have an upside objective for additional sales for now, we continue to target a value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting at this level will allow you to lock in gains that offset much of the original position’s cost, while holding the remaining 510 calls at or near a net-neutral cost. This strategy should continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence for further sales during an extended rally. Since harvest time is not an advantageous sales window, we will begin evaluating market conditions once it concludes and target areas for additional sales recommendations in late fall or early winter.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure in the wheat and soybean markets weighed on corn prices to end the week. December corn still finished the week up 6 ¾ cents but closed 10 cents off the week’s highs as the upward momentum appeared to fade by week’s end.

  • The USDA announced a corn export sale on Friday morning. Unknown destinations bought 198,000 mt (7.8 mb) of corn for the current marketing year. The corn export program has supported prices as current sales on the books are running 14% ahead of last year’s levels for this time window.

  • The US Dollar Index has traded higher for the fifth consecutive session and is at its highest level since early August. For the week, the US Dollar Index has gained over 2.0 basis points off the recent lows. A stronger dollar plus the rally in corn prices could price US bushels out of the export market versus cheaper global competition.

  • A harvest friendly weather forecast looks to help promote a strong pace for both corn and soybean harvest. The selling pressure from freshly harvested bushels will still be a limiting factor in the corn market in the short term.

Above: The recent close above the 200-day moving average was met with resistance near 434 and prices retreated. Support below the market could come in between 420 and 416, near the 100-day ma. Below there, further support could be found between 410 and 400.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. While we don’t currently have a target range for additional sales, because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous prices, we will begin evaluating market conditions once it concludes and will target areas for additional sales recommendations in late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower, marking the fifth consecutive day of making lower lows as funds resumed selling in response to rainfall in Brazil and forecasts predicting additional moisture over the next two weeks. Although the end of the dockworker strike initially supported prices earlier in the day, the effect was short-lived. Both soybean meal and soybean oil also ended the day lower.

  • For the week, November soybeans lost 28 cents, closing at 1037 ¾, while March soybeans fell 24 cents to 1071 ¼. December soybean meal dropped $13.60, settling at $330.50, and December soybean oil gained 1.61 cents, closing at 43.97 cents.

  • This morning, a flash sale totaling 116,000 metric tons of soybeans to China was reported for the 24/25 marketing year even though they are on their golden week holiday. Yesterday’s export sales figures were supportive as well with an increase of 53.0 mb for 24/25.

  • Forecasts for South America predict significant rainfall in both Brazil and Argentina over the next 15 days. While scattered showers have fallen intermittently, the extremely dry central region of Brazil is expected to receive over an inch of rain, with southern regions expected to get even more.

Above: Since rallying above the 50-day moving average, the soybean market has largely traded sideways, between 1030 down below, and 1070 up top. A breakout to the downside could be met with support between the 50-day ma (near 1010) and 995. Conversely, a close above 1070, could be met with psychological resistance near 1100, with further resistance around the 200-day ma, currently near 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a rough close with double-digit losses in both Chicago and Kansas City futures. Paris milling wheat futures gapped lower this session, offering no support to the US market. Additionally, the US Dollar Index saw another significant move higher today; at the time of writing, it is up 0.56 at 102.55, the highest level since August 16. As the dollar rises, it makes US exports less competitive, weighing on prices.

  • There are better chances for rain in Ukraine and southern Russia, which may have contributed to the pressure on wheat over the past couple of sessions. However, according to APK-Inform, conditions for planting winter grain in Ukraine remain unfavorable. The lack of rain (and therefore soil moisture) in September is responsible for the poor conditions.

  • The US port worker strike has come to an end – at least temporarily. An agreement was reached to increase benefits and wages by 62% over the next six years, and workers have agreed to return immediately. However, details of the agreement still need to be worked out, and the strike could potentially resume in 90 days. On the positive side, this will allow imports and exports at least through harvest and the subsequent holiday season, avoiding disruptions during these key times of year.

  • Russia’s agriculture ministry reportedly raised their wheat export tax by 6.6% to 1,328.3 Rubles per mt. However, Russian wheat is still cheap compared to most other origins. This may keep pressure on US futures, and at a minimum, limit upside potential.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, wheat in the heart of Argentina’s growing region is showing signs of stress due to dry conditions. Since most of Argentina’s wheat is harvested in November and December, this is a critical time for the crop’s development.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through September also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although low Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat production.  July ’25 KC wheat is now about 100 cents off the August low, which represents nearly a 50% retracement back towards last spring’s highs. Considering the extent of this rally and that there may be considerable resistance overhead, we suggest taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on a portion of your anticipated 2025 hard red winter wheat crop, using either July ’25 KC wheat futures, or a July ’25 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The recent rally was capped by resistance around 623. A close back above that level could put the market on track to test the 50% retracement level of 637 back toward the May high. Down below, the market may find trendline support near 581, with further support between 571 and 561.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. While we are at the time of year when market lows often occur, we will consider posting upside targets in late September or early October when market conditions often become more advantageous, and harvest is mostly behind us.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent breakout was met with resistance just below the 200-day moving average, a close above which could put the market on track to run towards 685. Below the market, initial support remains near the 100-day ma, with trendline support near 610.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 2 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-3 End of Day: Markets Drift Lower to Close Down on the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Even though corn export sales exceeded trade expectations, the corn market closed lower for the first time since last week, driven by weakness in the wheat market, a strong US dollar, and ongoing hedge pressure.

  • Despite another day of sharply higher bean oil, soybeans closed lower on the day influenced largely by another day of sharply lower soybean meal, which was weighed down by increased rain chances in Argentina and the ongoing dockworkers strike.

  • Profit-taking, combined with a lack of fresh bullish news, a strong US dollar, and three consecutive days of gains, weighed on all three classes of the wheat complex, pushing them lower alongside corn and soybeans.

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor, One Week Classification Change, and Winter Wheat in Drought maps, courtesy of the National Drought Mitigation Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed, US demand has picked up, and South American weather has been dry. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop could limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers have found value at these multi-year low price levels. Now that managed funds have covered a significant portion of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or continued South American dryness could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields are strong and South American weather turns more seasonal, prices could be at risk of retreating from recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June, we recommended purchasing Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, due to their relative value and the typically high market volatility during that time of year. Although we no longer have an upside objective for additional sales for now, we continue to target a value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting at this level will allow you to lock in gains that offset much of the original position’s cost, while holding the remaining 510 calls at or near a net-neutral cost. This strategy should continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence for further sales during an extended rally. Since harvest time is not an advantageous sales window, we will begin evaluating market conditions once it concludes and target areas for additional sales recommendations in late fall or early winter.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished lower for the first time in four sessions as prices dropped back to test support. Selling in the wheat market, hedge pressure, and the stronger US Dollar likely limited the corn market on Thursday.

  • The US Dollar Index has traded higher for the past four sessions and is at its highest level since early August. A stronger dollar plus the rally in corn prices could price US bushels out of the export market versus cheaper global competition.

  • Weekly export sales for corn rebounded after last week’s disappointing totals. US exporters reported new sales of 66.3 million bushels (1.684 mmt), which was well above market expectations. This was the strongest weekly volume since last November for corn sales. 

  • The weather forecast for the central US remains drier and warmer than normal, which should allow corn harvest to move along at a rapid pace. The selling pressure from freshly harvested bushels could limit rallies in the corn market in the short term.

Above: With December corn showing upward momentum, the close above the 200-day moving average could set the market on course to test the June high around 465. Below the market initial support remains between 416 and 420 with further support near 401 – 397.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. While we don’t currently have a target range for additional sales, because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous prices, we will begin evaluating market conditions once it concludes and will target areas for additional sales recommendations in late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower, posting lower highs and lower lows for the past three trading days, as improved Brazilian weather forecasts have pressured the markets. While funds had been exiting their short positions over the past few weeks, they are likely now adding back to them. Soybean meal closed lower, while soybean oil finished higher.

  • Today’s losses in soybean meal may be tied to the dockworker strike that has ports on the East Coast shut down for the past three days. The shutdown will likely impact exports of soybeans and soybean meal to China as they are shipped by container. Soybean oil was higher as it followed the sharp increase in crude oil.

  • Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 53.0 million bushels in soybean export sales for 24/25 and an increase of just 37,000 bushels for 25/26. This was towards the higher end of trade estimates but slightly below last week’s export sales. Export shipments of 26.6 mb were below the 36.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to China, Bangladesh, and the Netherlands.

  • Forecasts for South America predict significant rainfall in both Brazil and Argentina over the next 15 days. While scattered showers have fallen intermittently, the extremely dry central region is expected to receive over an inch of rain, with southern regions likely to get even more.

Above: November soybeans’ strong close above 1031 ¼ resistance suggests that prices could run toward the late July high between 1080 – 1085. Above there, further resistance could be met near the 100-day moving average. If prices retreat, initial support may be found near 1030, with further downside support between the 50-day moving average and 995.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across the board, alongside the rest of the grain complex. Profit-taking after the recent rally, along with a general lack of fresh news, may have contributed to today’s decline. Additionally, the US Dollar Index continues to rise, rallying back above the 102 level, reaching an area not seen since late August, which could pressure US commodity exports.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 16.3 million bushels in wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 19.5 mb exceeded the 15.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. Sales commitments for wheat have reached 427 mb, which is up 23% from last year.

  • Yesterday it was reported that Egypt purchased 3.1 mmt of wheat, likely from Russia. Since then, they have also announced that they plan to change their flour mix in order to reduce wheat consumption. Now 25% of their flour may be made from corn or sorghum, while the remaining 75% would be wheat. This is estimated to potentially decrease their annual wheat use by 1 mmt.

  • Drought conditions in US winter wheat areas have improved. According to the USDA as of October 1, about 44% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought, compared with 50% a week prior. This should aid establishment of the crop currently being planted.

  • The European Commission has proposed a one-year delay to a law aimed at reducing global deforestation. The law, if passed, would require commodity trading firms that sell food products in Europe to prove that the commodities did not originate on land cleared of forest after 2020. There was large pushback from many who claimed that this would result in inflation and increased costs in the world food supply chain.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: With the December wheat close above 600, the market is poised to test the 640 – 645 resistance area. Should prices turn back lower, support could be found near the 100 and 200-day moving averages, around 585. Below that, further support could be found near the 50-day moving average.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through September also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although low Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat production.  July ’25 KC wheat is now about 100 cents off the August low, which represents nearly a 50% retracement back towards last spring’s highs. Considering the extent of this rally and that there may be considerable resistance overhead, we suggest taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on a portion of your anticipated 2025 hard red winter wheat crop, using either July ’25 KC wheat futures, or a July ’25 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: With the close above 604 ¼, and the 100 and 200-day moving averages, December KC wheat could be on track to run towards 637. Down below the market, if prices turn lower, initial support may be found near the 100 and 200-day moving averages, and again between the 50-day ma, and 561.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. While we are at the time of year when market lows often occur, we will consider posting upside targets in late September or early October when market conditions often become more advantageous, and harvest is mostly behind us.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent breakout above 637 puts the market on track for a potential run towards 685, with initial resistance near the 200-day moving average. To the downside, a break below the 100-day ma could put the market at risk of trading to the 50-day ma, near 600.

Other Charts / Weather

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10-2 End of Day: Wheat Supports Corn, as Beans Flounder

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • With support from a strong wheat market, the corn market kept its rally intact for the fourth consecutive day, as it printed fresh daily highs and settled with the highest close in the December contract since late June.

  • The soybean market closed mixed with relatively minor losses in the front months after rallying off lows set just before the morning pause. Forecasts for rain in Argentina and Brazil weighed heavily on soybean meal and soybeans early, while sharply higher palm oil and stronger crude oil supported bean oil.

  • The wheat complex posted its third consecutive day of higher closes across the board, with today’s front month closing prices the highest since early to mid-June. Buyers remain active with continued crop concerns and geopolitical uncertainty as war premium likely gets factored into prices.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 2-week percent of normal precipitation forecast for South America, courtesy of NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed, US demand has picked up, and South American weather has been dry. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop could limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers have found value at these multi-year low price levels. Now that managed funds have covered a significant portion of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or continued South American dryness could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields are strong and South American weather turns more seasonal, prices could be at risk of retreating from recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June, we recommended purchasing Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, due to their relative value and the typically high market volatility during that time of year. Although we no longer have an upside objective for additional sales for now, we continue to target a value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting at this level will allow you to lock in gains that offset much of the original position’s cost, while holding the remaining 510 calls at or near a net-neutral cost. This strategy should continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence for further sales during an extended rally. Since harvest time is not an advantageous sales window, we will begin evaluating market conditions once it concludes and target areas for additional sales recommendations in late fall or early winter.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures stayed on their upward path as prices followed strong buying in the wheat market to close December corn at its highest price levels since June.

  • The USDA will release its next Crop Production report on Friday, October 11. Before that time, we will see private analysts posting potential corn yield projections. One private analyst group in their producer survey raised the corn yield to 184 bushels per acre as their producers highlight strong yields at harvest this fall. This will likely be a trend as projections come in before the report.

  • Weekly ethanol production recovered to 1.015 million barrels per day last week. A total of 102 million bushels was estimated to be used for ethanol production last week. Although this total is behind the pace to reach USDA corn usage targets, it is early in the marketing year.

  • The corn market will be watching to see if corn export sales rebound after last week’s disappointing total. Last week, US exporters sold 535,056 bushels of corn, which was below the range of expectation. Expectations for new sales range from 600,000 – 1.0 mmt in Thursday morning’s export sales report.

  • The US Dollar Index has turned the corner higher and is trading at its highest point in weeks. The stronger dollar plus the rally in corn prices could price US bushels out of the export market versus cheaper global competition.

Above: With December corn showing upward momentum, a close above the 200-day moving average could set the market on course to test the June high around 465. Below the market initial support remains between 416 and 420 with further support near 401 – 397.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. While we don’t currently have a target range for additional sales, because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous prices, we will begin evaluating market conditions once it concludes and will target areas for additional sales recommendations in late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day mixed, with front-month contracts slightly lower and deferred contracts closing either unchanged or slightly higher. They traded within a relatively wide range again today, rallying off early morning lows. Soybean meal traded significantly lower throughout the day, while soybean oil closed higher.

  • Yesterday afternoon, StoneX released its updated estimates for soybean yields and production. The yield estimate was raised slightly to 53.5 bpa, compared to the USDA’s previous estimate of 53.1 bpa. Iowa’s yield was pegged at 64.5 bpa, Illinois at 67 bpa, and Indiana at 62 bpa.

  • Forecasts for South America predict significant rainfall in both Brazil and Argentina over the next 15 days. While scattered showers have fallen intermittently, the extremely dry central region is expected to receive over an inch of rain, with southern regions likely to get even more.

  • With dockworkers at ports from Maine to Texas now on strike, exports of agricultural products could be affected. While soybeans and soybean meal are typically shipped from the West Coast, rerouting other trade through western ports may cause bottlenecks, potentially impacting soybean exports negatively.

Above: November soybeans’ strong close above 1031 ¼ resistance suggests that prices could run toward the late July high between 1080 – 1085. Above there, further resistance could be met near the 100-day moving average. If prices retreat, initial support may be found near 1030, with further downside support between the 50-day moving average and 995.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a banner day with double-digit gains in all three futures classes, and Kansas City contracts led the way higher with gains of over 20 cents. This may have been driven by another sharply higher close for Paris milling wheat futures, as well as additional war premium and uncertainty continuing to be factored into the marketplace.

  • Declining estimates of the Australian wheat crop have been bullish to the market. While the USDA raised their forecast last month to 32 mmt, some private estimates are now in the range of 27-30 mmt. Frost damage and dryness are the causes for the declines, with some estimating that Australia may have lost 1 mmt of wheat in key growing regions.

  • GASC, Egypt’s state grain purchasing authority, is said to have bought 3.1 mmt of wheat, which is believed to be sourced from Russia. News outlets are reporting that 510,000 mt will be shipped from the Black Sea each month until the deal is fulfilled.

  • According to Russia’s weather bureau, some wheat producing regions are in worse shape than usual due to a recent lack of rainfall. Additionally, Russia’s grain export union is requesting for a reduction of grain exports, with wheat making up the majority of Q1 shipments for the 24/25 marketing year. SovEcon is also reported to have reduced their Russian wheat export estimate by 0.5 mmt to 47.6 mmt; for reference the USDA is using a 48 mmt figure.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: With the December wheat close above 600, the market is poised to test the 640 – 645 resistance area. Should prices turn back lower, support could be found near the 100 and 200-day moving averages, around 585. Below that, further support could be found near the 50-day moving average.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through September also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although low Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 675 – 700 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat production.  July ’25 KC wheat is now about 100 cents off the August low, which represents nearly a 50% retracement back towards last spring’s highs. Considering the extent of this rally and that there may be considerable resistance overhead, we suggest taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on a portion of your anticipated 2025 hard red winter wheat crop, using either July ’25 KC wheat futures, or a July ’25 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: With the close above 604 ¼, and the 100 and 200-day moving averages, December KC wheat could be on track to run towards 637. Down below the market, if prices turn lower, initial support may be found near the 100 and 200-day moving averages, and again between the 50-day ma, and 561.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. While we are at the time of year when market lows often occur, we will consider posting upside targets in late September or early October when market conditions often become more advantageous, and harvest is mostly behind us.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent breakout above 637 puts the market on track for a potential run towards 685, with initial resistance near the 200-day moving average. To the downside, a break below the 100-day ma could put the market at risk of trading to the 50-day ma, near 600.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil 2-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 2-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-1 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Continue Higher, While Beans Consolidate

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • With carryover support from the wheat market, and an increase in geopolitical tensions, the corn market shook off lower prices from the overnight session to settle in the top third of the day’s range.

  • Caught between higher soybean meal and lower bean oil, the soybean market settled near unchanged after trading on both sides of unchanged in a 20-cent top to bottom trading range.

  • Rising tensions in the Middle East drove strong gains across all three wheat classes, with Chicago and Kansas City contracts leading the way, closing near the top of their 25-cent daily ranges. Additional support came from increasing Russian export prices.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed and demand has picked up. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop may limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low price levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover more of their short positions and rally prices further, however, an extended rally is unlikely until after harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June, we recommended purchasing Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, due to their relative value and the typically high market volatility during that time of year. Although we no longer have an upside objective for additional sales for now, we continue to target a value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting at this level will allow you to lock in gains that offset much of the original position’s cost, while holding the remaining 510 calls at or near a net-neutral cost. This strategy should continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence for further sales during an extended rally. Since harvest time is not an advantageous sales window, we will begin evaluating market conditions once it concludes and target areas for additional sales recommendations in late fall or early winter.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong wheat prices and geopolitical events triggered additional buying in the corn market as prices closed higher. December corn futures close above the 100-day moving average for the first time since June 13. The improved technical picture and strong money flow will likely lead to additional short covering in the corn market despite corn harvest ramping up.

  • During the session, Iran launched missiles into Israel, which triggered strong buying in the crude oil markets. That buying strength faded as the session moved into the afternoon, but the strength in crude oil supported the commodity space in general.

  • Harvest pressure will remain a factor in the market as the US corn harvest is 21% complete, matching last year’s progress at this time and ahead of the 5-year average. Weather forecasts predict favorable conditions for the next few days, which should help maintain a good harvest pace.

  • USDA announced a flash sale of corn before the session this morning. Unknown destination picked up 195,000 mt of corn for delivery in the current market year.

  • Wheat futures may continue to lead the corn market higher, closing at their highest levels since early July. This was driven by hot, dry weather in the Black Sea region and rising geopolitical tensions. The buying strength in wheat has also supported the corn market.

Above: With December corn showing upward momentum, a close above the 200-day moving average could set the market on course to test the June high around 465. Below the market initial support remains between 416 and 420 with further support near 401 – 397.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. While we don’t currently have a target range for additional sales, because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous prices, we will begin evaluating market conditions once it concludes and will target areas for additional sales recommendations in late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day nearly unchanged after a day of volatile trade that saw prices dip as low as 1045 and as high as 1065 ½ in the November contract. The escalation of conflict in the Middle East as well as the dockworker’s port strike likely added to the volatility with macro influences. Soybean meal ended the day higher while soybean oil was lower despite higher crude.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the soybean good to excellent rating unchanged from a week ago at 64%. 81% of the crop is dropping leaves and 26% is harvested which compares to 13% a week ago and the average of 18%.

  • This morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 195,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.

  • With dockworkers at ports on the East Coast of the country from Maine to Texas now on strike, exports of ag products could be affected. Soybeans and soybean meal are exported on cargo ships that typically leave out of the West Coast, but with other trade being routed through the western ports, bottlenecks may occur and have a negative impact on soybeans.

Above: November soybeans’ strong close above 1031 ¼ resistance suggests that prices could run toward the late July high between 1080 – 1085. Above there, further resistance could be met near the 100-day moving average. If prices retreat, initial support may be found near 1030, with further downside support between the 50-day moving average and 995.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted double-digit gains in all three classes alongside sharply higher Matif wheat futures. US wheat appeared to ignore the negativity of a higher US Dollar Index, as well as the port worker strike that did occur last night. However, a statement from the USDA did seem to indicate that grains would be largely unaffected by this strike.

  • According to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, US winter wheat is 39% planted as of September 29. This is ahead of the 36% pace last year and the 38% average. Additionally, 14% of the crop has emerged, which is just above 13% from both last year and the 5-year average.

  • According to both SovEcon and IKAR, Russian wheat export FOB values have increased to around $221-$222 per mt. This is up from the $217 area just a day or two ago. A continued rise in Russian prices would be bullish, as it would make US wheat exports more competitive globally.

  • This afternoon, news outlets reported that Iran had launched dozens of missiles into Israel in retaliation for the killing of a Hezbollah leader. This had the crude oil market up sharply, which may have lent some support to the grain complex. In addition, fears of an all-out war in the Middle East may have lent some strength to wheat, as it is a staple grain in that region.

  • The EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit projected the 2024 Russian wheat crop at 82.9 mmt, down 11% from the previous year’s 93.6 mmt. Weather extremes, including both overly wet conditions as well as hot and dry spells, are cited as the reason for the decline.

  • Ukraine’s agriculture ministry reported that 1.82 million hectares of winter grains have been planted so far, which is about 35% of the total intended area. Of this, winter wheat accounts for 1.7 million hectares, or approximately 93% of the total.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since early September, prices have been mostly rangebound. Overhead, a close above 600 resistance could put prices on course to test the 640 – 645 area. Whereas a close below 560 could put the market at risk of trading down to the 50-day moving average with support near 544.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position could trigger an extended short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 675 – 700 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Earlier this summer we recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of those remaining puts. Meanwhile, our current upside strategy is to target the 640 – 670 range, also in the July ’25, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December KC wheat appears to have found support right near the 50-day moving average and reversed back higher. Overhead, resistance remains near the 100 and 200-day moving averages near the recent 604 ¼ high. A close above there could put the market on track towards 637, whereas a close below 561 ¼ could put the market at risk of sliding towards the 527 ¼ low.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. While we are at the time of year when market lows often occur, we will consider posting upside targets in late September or early October when market conditions often become more advantageous, and harvest is mostly behind us.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Since early September, December Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound between support near the 50-day moving average and resistance near 637. A breakout to the upside could put the market in position to rally toward 685, with potential resistance around the 100 and 200-day moving averages. To the downside, a break below the 50-day moving average could put the market at risk of sliding towards 560.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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9-30 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Higher, Beans Finish Lower After USDA Data Dump

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A lower-than-expected Quarterly Grain Stocks estimate from the USDA provided support for corn futures to trade higher to start the week.

  • Soybeans started the week lower giving back some of their recent gains after the Quarterly Grain Stocks estimate from the USDA came in near expectations.

  • Soybean meal futures were lower on the day with soybeans while soybean oil rallied over 2% today.

  • Spring wheat futures led the wheat complex higher to start the week after the USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report and Small Grains Summary came in near expectations for wheat.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 1-week precipitation anomaly forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed and demand has picked up. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop may limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low price levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover more of their short positions and rally prices further, however, an extended rally is unlikely until after harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June, we recommended purchasing Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, due to their relative value and the typically high market volatility during that time of year. Although we no longer have an upside objective for additional sales for now, we continue to target a value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting at this level will allow you to lock in gains that offset much of the original position’s cost, while holding the remaining 510 calls at or near a net-neutral cost. This strategy should continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence for further sales during an extended rally. Since harvest time is not an advantageous sales window, we will begin evaluating market conditions once it concludes and target areas for additional sales recommendations in late fall or early winter.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market took the lower than expected Quarterly Grain Stocks report to push higher on the session to start the week. The daily close on December corn today at 426 ¾ was the highest daily close since the end of June. The positive price action could lead corn price higher to test the 100-day moving average at 429 area, the next key level of resistance.

  • USDA stated on the Quarterly Grain Stocks report that US corn supplies as of September 1 totaled 1.760 billion bushels which was 84 million bushels below pre-report expectations. The corn stockpile saw very good Q4 disappearance, and a small reduction (1.08 mb) off last year’s production to reach the total.

  • Despite being below expectations, corn stockpiles were up 29% year-over-year or 400 million bushels. On farm storage remains heavy at 44.3% of the stockpile still being stored in producers’ hands. This was slightly better than last year, but well above the 10-year average for storage rate at 36%.

  • Weekly export inspection for corn remains strong, as last week US exporters shipped 1.140 MMT (44.9 mb) of corn on the export market. Year to date, corn export inspections are 24% ahead of last year.

  • US corn harvest will continue to progress. Last week, the expected harvest was 14% complete. Expectation for corn harvest to be around 25% complete on this week’s Crop Progress report. Hedge pressure as harvest moves along will likely be a limiting force on corn market’s potential upside in the near term.

Above: September 24, December corn pierced the 416 resistance level and posted a bearish reversal. Should the market trade lower, support may come in between 401 and 397, with further support down near 385. Otherwise, a close above the new recent high of 419 ¼, it would be poised to make a potential run towards 430, with resistance at the 200-day moving average just above there.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, September 24. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 4,115 contracts between September 18 – 24, bringing their total position to a net short 130,699 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. While we don’t currently have a target range for additional sales, because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous prices, we will begin evaluating market conditions once it concludes and will target areas for additional sales recommendations in late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower after a day of volatile trade that saw prices trading on either side of unchanged. The Quarterly Grain Stocks report today was neutral for soybeans and although the initial reaction was positive, prices faded into the day. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil rallied with the December contract gaining 2.25%.

  • Today’s US Quarterly Grain Stocks report saw corn stocks fall by 1.08 million bushels to 1.76 billion bushels. This was towards the lower end of trade estimates and was below the average trade guess of 1.844 billion bushels. There was a slight reduction in 23/24 crop production, and corn futures responded bullishly to the report.

  • Today’s export inspections report was average for soybeans with soybean inspections totaling 24.8 mb for the week ending September 26. Total inspections for 24/25 are now at 71 mb, which is down 3% from the previous year.

  • This morning, private exporters reported sales of 116,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024/2025 marketing year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 47,437 contracts of soybeans as of the 24th. This reduced their net short position to 74,978 contracts, but they are estimated to have exited an additional 20,000 contracts since the 24th, which shows them nearing a net neutral position.

Above: November soybeans’ strong close above 1031 ¼ resistance suggests that prices could run toward the late July high between 1080 – 1085. Above there, further resistance could be met near the 100-day moving average. If prices retreat, initial support may be found near 1030, with further downside support between the 50-day moving average and 995.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, September 24. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 47,437 contracts between September 18 – 24, bringing their total position to a net short 74,978 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed higher, led by strength in Minneapolis futures. Today’s data was neutral to somewhat supportive for the wheat complex, but along with higher Matif futures, offered a boost to the market. The quarterly stocks number, though above last year, saw little change from pre-report expectations; the trade was looking for 1.984 bb and the actual figure came in at 1.986 bb. In a similar fashion, US 24/25 all wheat production came in at 1.971 bb, which was above last year’s 1.812 bb but below the average trade guess of 1.984 bb.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 19.7 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections to 303 mb, which is up 35% from last year. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimate, and 24/25 exports are projected at 825 mb, up 17% from last year.

  • As of writing, an estimated 45,000 dockworkers will strike at midnight tonight. This could cause massive disruptions along the US east coast and gulf coast, delaying the transport and logistics of US grains and other goods. This strike could reportedly affect 36 ports, which handle about half of the shipments of goods in and out of the US.

  • According to the European Commission, total grain production for the EU is now estimated at 260.9 mmt, which is a reduction from the August projection of 264.5 mmt. The 24/25 soft wheat harvest in particular is now estimated at 114.6 mmt, down from 116.1 mmt in August.

  • The USDA is estimating the 24/25 Russian wheat crop at 83 mmt. However, some believe that the following year will see an increase in production. According to Rusagrotrans, the 25/26 crop is expected to rise to 87 mmt. On a related note, Russia currently continues to offer cheap wheat for export, around $217 per mt on a FOB basis, which may limit upside movement for futures prices.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since early September, prices have been mostly rangebound. Overhead, a close above 600 resistance could put prices on course to test the 640 – 645 area. Whereas a close below 560 could put the market at risk of trading down to the 50-day moving average with support near 544.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, September 24. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,436 contracts between September 18 – 24, bringing their total position to a net short 26,469 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position could trigger an extended short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 675 – 700 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Earlier this summer we recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of those remaining puts. Meanwhile, our current upside strategy is to target the 640 – 670 range, also in the July ’25, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December KC wheat appears to have found support right near the 50-day moving average and reversed back higher. Overhead, resistance remains near the 100 and 200-day moving averages near the recent 604 ¼ high. A close above there could put the market on track towards 637, whereas a close below 561 ¼ could put the market at risk of sliding towards the 527 ¼ low.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, September 24. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,460 contracts between September 18 – 24, bringing their total position to a net short 19,946 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. While we are at the time of year when market lows often occur, we will consider posting upside targets in late September or early October when market conditions often become more advantageous, and harvest is mostly behind us.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Since early September, December Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound between support near the 50-day moving average and resistance near 637. A breakout to the upside could put the market in position to rally toward 685, with potential resistance around the 100 and 200-day moving averages. To the downside, a break below the 50-day moving average could put the market at risk of sliding towards 560.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, September 24. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 878 contracts between September 18 – 24, bringing their total position to a net short 15,664 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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9-27 End of Day: Meal Leads Beans and Corn Higher, While Wheat Slides

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover strength from the soybean complex more than offset the influence of lower wheat, as December corn closed just off the top of the day’s range, with a 16 ¼ cent gain on the week.

  • November soybeans negated yesterday’s bearish reversal, rallying back with support from sharply higher soybean meal, and closed nearly 109 cents above the August low, reaching their highest level in two months.

  • Technical buying on the breakout in soybean meal, likely triggered by Hurricane Helene causing quality concerns to the soybean crop in the southern states, drove December meal to a $17.40 gain and its highest close since late June. Meanwhile, bean oil settled lower for the day, following through on yesterday’s weakness.

  • Despite a strong rally in soybeans and subsequent gains in corn, the wheat complex ended the session lower across all three classes. Persistent selling pressure from yesterday’s bearish closes weighed on prices, with additional weakness likely influenced by improved rain chances in Ukraine and Russia.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 2-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed and demand has picked up. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop may limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low price levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover more of their short positions and rally prices further, however, an extended rally is unlikely until after harvest.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June, we recommended purchasing Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, due to their relative value and the typically high market volatility during that time of year. Although we no longer have an upside objective for additional sales for now, we continue to target a value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting at this level will allow you to lock in gains that offset much of the original position’s cost, while holding the remaining 510 calls at or near a net-neutral cost. This strategy should continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence for further sales during an extended rally. Since harvest time is not an advantageous sales window, we will begin evaluating market conditions once it concludes and target areas for additional sales recommendations in late fall or early winter.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished the week with higher trade fueled by a strong rally in the soybean meal and soybean markets. Concerns regarding the quality of the southern soybean harvest impacted by Hurricane Helene helped push October soybean meal 6% higher on the session. December corn, with today’s rally, finished the week 16 ¼ cents higher and posted its highest daily close since July 26.

  • Even with the strong close, corn futures still failed to push through the 420-price level, which seems to be a swing point on December corn charts.

  • On Monday, The USDA will release the September Quarterly Grain Stocks Report and final planted acre estimates. The grain stocks will be closely watched.  Expectations are for stocks as of Sept 1 to be at 1.846 billion bushels. This will be up 485 mb from last year. Concerns regarding the large supplies of old crop corn could be a concern, with the possibility last year’s harvest was bigger than estimated. The Grain Stocks report will set the goal post for prices through the harvest months.

  • Weather in the western corn belt should stay favorable for harvest.  Expectations is for corn harvest to be 24-25% complete through the weekend. Harvest pressure will likely limit corn’s upside potential.

Above: September 24, December corn pierced the 416 resistance level and posted a bearish reversal. Should the market trade lower, support may come in between 401 and 397, with further support down near 385. Otherwise, a close above the new recent high of 419 ¼, it would be poised to make a potential run towards 430, with resistance at the 200-day moving average just above there.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. While we don’t currently have a target range for additional sales, because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous prices, we will begin evaluating market conditions once it concludes and will target areas for additional sales recommendations in late fall or early winter.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher to close out the week with huge support from soybean meal which was up $17.30 in December just today. Some of the support in meal likely came from dry conditions in both Argentina and Brazil, and Brazil is expected to receive more significant rains within the next few weeks. Soybean oil ended the day lower.

  • While some support in the soybean meal may have come from dry South American weather, that is not new information. The more likely support in meal today is the impact of the hurricane and flash flooding that is impacting the quality of soybeans in the South. There are multiple large hog processing plants in North Carolina that were reportedly locking large amounts of meal today due to the quality concerns.

  • While some support in the soybean meal may have come from dry South American weather, that is not new information. The more likely support in meal today is the impact of the hurricane and flash flooding that is impacting the quality of soybeans in the South. There are multiple large hog processing plants in North Carolina that were reportedly locking large amounts of meal today due to the quality concerns.Soybean oil was slightly lower to end the day which was surprising given the strength in the soybean complex and the fact that a flash sale of 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil was reported for delivery to South Korea during the 24/25 marketing period.

  • For the week, November soybeans gained 53 ¾ cents to end at 1065 ¾ and March soybeans gained 51 ½ cents to end at 1095 ¼. December soybean meal gained a whopping $24.90 to end at $344.10 and December soybean oil gained 1.00 cent at 42.36 cents. Funds were estimated to have bought back over 35,000 soybean contracts this week.

Above: November soybeans’ strong close above 1031 ¼ resistance suggests that prices could run toward the late July high between 1080 – 1085. Above there, further resistance could be met near the 100-day moving average. If prices retreat, initial support may be found near 1030, with further downside support between the 50-day moving average and 995.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite a sharply higher trade in soybeans, wheat received little support and closed lower across all three futures classes. This decline may be partially attributed to improved chances for rain in eastern Ukraine and southern Russia during the second week of the forecast.

  • The European Commission has reportedly lowered its estimate of EU soft wheat production by 1.5 million metric tons, bringing the total to 114.6 mmt. In related news, FranceAgriMer reports that as of Monday, 1% of the French soft wheat crop has been planted, which is in line with the average pace.

  • Although the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has indicated the possibility of reducing its corn forecast, the outlook for wheat has improved. Wheat, predominantly grown in the southern regions, has benefited from recent rains, prompting the exchange to raise its wheat production estimate to 18.6 mmt on Wednesday.

  • Ukraine’s wheat exports for the 24/25 season may be capped at 16.2 mmt. The country’s agricultural minister stated that limited supplies could necessitate this export cap. As of September 25, Ukraine’s wheat exports have totaled 5.6 mmt. For reference, the USDA estimates their exports at 15 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since early September, prices have been mostly rangebound. Overhead, a close above 600 resistance could put prices on course to test the 640 – 645 area. Whereas a close below 560 could put the market at risk of trading down to the 50-day moving average with support near 544.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position could trigger an extended short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 675 – 700 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Earlier this summer we recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of those remaining puts. Meanwhile, our current upside strategy is to target the 640 – 670 range, also in the July ’25, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December KC wheat appears to have found support right near the 50-day moving average and reversed back higher. Overhead, resistance remains near the 100 and 200-day moving averages near the recent 604 ¼ high. A close above there could put the market on track towards 637, whereas a close below 561 ¼ could put the market at risk of sliding towards the 527 ¼ low.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. While we are at the time of year when market lows often occur, we will consider posting upside targets in late September or early October when market conditions often become more advantageous, and harvest is mostly behind us.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Since early September, December Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound between support near the 50-day moving average and resistance near 637. A breakout to the upside could put the market in position to rally toward 685, with potential resistance around the 100 and 200-day moving averages. To the downside, a break below the 50-day moving average could put the market at risk of sliding towards 560.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil and N. Argentina 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.