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11-29 End of Day: Corn Higher, Soybeans Quiet and Wheat Lower into the Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures ended November on a high note finding buying interest to end the week and the month.

  • Despite marketing-year high export sales for soybeans last week, futures prices were relatively muted to end the holiday-shortened trading week.

  • Wheat futures stumbled into the weekend closing at or near their lows for the week.

  • To see the updated US Seven Day Moisture Outlook and the Week 1 South American Precipitation Forecast, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw buying strength to end November as the December and March contracts saw moderate gains. For the week, December corn finished the week approximately 2 cents lower, but nearly 9 cents off the lows for the week.

  • Today was First Notice Day for December corn, and prices bounced as long positions have been removed from the market. Open interest in the December contract has gone from 270,000+ contracts on Monday to less than 20,000 contracts on the open today. With Dec in delivery, traders will shift focus to the most actively traded March contract.

  • The USDA released weekly export sales on Friday morning. The USDA reported new corn sales of 1.06 MMT (41.8 mb) for the week ending November 21. This was at the low end of expectations. Total corn sales have been strong, trending 33% above last year’s levels.

  • Export demand and ethanol production continue to support corn markets, helping prices recover from recent lows and providing a foundation heading into year-end.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day with front-month gains and deferred-month losses, reflecting a bull spread. Limited carry in the market signals expectations of abundant supplies next year. Soybean meal was lower to end the day while soybean oil finished higher. Strong soybean crush numbers continue to create a glut of bean meal.

  • Today’s Export Sales report was strong for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 91.5 million bushels of soybean export sales for the 24/25 marketing year and 0.7 mb for 25/26. This was above the high end of analyst estimates. Last week’s export shipments of 76.5 mb were well above the 29.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and Germany.

  • For the week, January soybeans gained 7-1/4 cents to $9.90-3/4 while March only gained 5 cents. January soybean meal gained $1.70 to $293.20 and January soybean oil lost 0.08 cents to 41.76 cents.

  • The USDA announced a large daily export sale for soybeans before the session this morning. The USDA announced sales of 840,000 MT (30.8 mb) and 151,700 MT (5.6 mb) of soybeans for unknown destinations for the 2024-25 marketing year.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat ended weaker after mixed trading, following Matif wheat’s third consecutive decline. However, the falling US Dollar Index and oversold technicals may provide support at current levels.

  • The USDA reported 13.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, with weekly shipments at 15.9 mb, just below the 16.5 mb needed to meet the 825 mb export goal. Commitments are up 20% year-over-year at 557 mb.

  • As reported by Tass, Russian wheat exports are expected to his 25.3 mmt so far this season. That is 1.7 mmt higher than last year. In addition, they are projecting total Russian wheat exports this season at 41.7 mmt.

  • According to FranceAgriMer, an estimated 93% of the French soft wheat crop has been planted as of Monday. This is ahead of last year’s 81% pace for the same time period and is also slightly ahead of the 91% five-year average. Of the crop, 87% are rated good or very good, slightly below last year’s 88%.

  • The European Commission raised its 24/25 EU grain production forecast to 256.9 mmt from 255.6 mmt in October, while soft wheat was lowered slightly to 112.3 mmt. Durum wheat estimates remain unchanged at 7.2 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept. ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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11-27 End of Day: Soybeans Higher, Corn and Wheat Lower into Thanksgiving

ByGrain Market Insider

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A fifth consecutive day of liquidation hit December corn futures on Wednesday ahead of First Notice Day on Friday. Continued weakness in wheat futures added pressure to corn.

  • Despite lower corn, wheat, and soybean oil futures, soybeans closed higher, with soybean meal futures also rebounding from recent lows.

  • Wheat futures fell across the board ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, retreating toward contract lows. Prices remained unaffected by the US dollar’s drop to its lowest level since early November.

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor and the Week 2 South American Precipitation Forecast, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The December corn market finished lower for the fifth straight session. First Notice Day on Friday and basis contract pricing likely pressured the market, leading to the lowest close since November 4. Open interest in the December contract has dropped by over 200,000 contracts since the start of the week as traders are moving aside long positions.

  • The US dollar made a strong correction lower on Thursday as the prospect of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates sent profit taking in the Japanese yen versus US dollar trade. Expectations are for the dollar to remain firm, but the setback could help support commodity prices.

  • With President Trump looking to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico imports as part of his Day 1 initiative, Mexico’s President Sheinbaum warned of retaliatory tariffs to counter. Mexico is the largest export buyer of US corn this marketing year.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Friday morning, delayed due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Corn sales have been strong to start the marketing year, but slowing as higher prices and strong dollar has hurt competitiveness. The market will be watching to see if this trend will continue.

Above: The corn market became overbought and drifted back to the 425 area, if prices break through and close below the 50-day moving average (ma) they run the risk falling further and testing more major support near the 410 area and 100-day ma. If this 425 – 420 area holds prices could retest the 442 area with the potential of trading towards 465.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher ahead of Thanksgiving, diverging from weaker corn and wheat markets. Gains in soybean meal offset a sharp 4.19% drop in soybean oil, which followed palm oil lower. This contrasted with yesterday’s soybean oil rally sparked by potential import tariffs on China’s used cooking oil.

  • This morning, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year. Export sales have tapered off slightly over the past few weeks but remain firm.

  • Brazilian Crop analyst, Dr. Michael Cordonnier, raised his 24/25 Brazilian soybean production forecast by 2.0 mmt to 168.0 mmt, citing a strong start and ideal weather in key growing regions. The 10-15 day forecast for central Brazil has turned slightly drier which could add some weather premium if it continued.

  • Rain is expected over the next couple of weeks in the dry areas of Paraguay, Argentina, and southern Brazil, which could result in 2-4 inches of rain. This has some analysts projecting between 700-750 mb of increased soybean production for South America when compared to last year.

Above: January soybeans continue to drift and test the 975 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of receding to the 940 support area around the August low. Should the 975 area hold turning prices back higher, they may find resistance between the 50-day moving average and 1014, before retesting the 1045 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite the US Dollar Index plunging to a two-week low today, US wheat could not find any footing. Pressure stemmed from a lower trade for Matif wheat futures as well as the fact that First Notice Day for December grain contracts is Friday. With markets closed for Thanksgiving tomorrow, this may have added some selling pressure, as anyone long at the close today is at risk of delivery on Friday.

  • Weakness in wheat was also tied to improved US winter wheat conditions. Monday’s Crop Progress report rated 55% good-to-excellent—the highest in four years—bolstered by recent Southern Plains rainfall.

  • Ongoing harvest in the Southern Hemisphere may have also pressured wheat today. Both Australia and Argentina are harvesting, but Argentina’s peso has also reached a record low level, resulting in falling wheat export values.

  • According to their agricultural ministry, the export duty on Russian wheat has risen to 3,020.3 rubles per ton from 2,689.7 rubles previously, a 12.3% increase. The duty on corn also increased, while it fell for barley. These rates are said to be valid until December 3.

  • The European Commission has said that EU soft wheat exports as of November 24 have reached 9.2 mmt since the season began on July 1. This represents a 30% decrease from last year’s 13.1 mmt total. Top destinations for the wheat exports include Nigeria, the UK, and Egypt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front month Chicago wheat remains in a broad trading range between 536 down below and 586 up top. If the market can trade through the 50 and 200-day moving averages and close above 586 it could be poised to retest the 617 area. Whereas a close below 536 could put the market at risk of trading to the 521 – 514 support area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: March KC wheat found resistance just below the 50-day moving average, near 577. Should the market trade through this area and close above 583, it could be set to run towards the 593 – 603 area. Otherwise, close below 535 could press prices towards the August low of 527 ¼.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept. ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Since rolling to the March contract, front month Minneapolis wheat has been capped by resistance near the 50-day moving average around 613. A close above this point could put the market on track to test the October highs near 655, with potential resistance around the 200-day moving average. Should prices slide below 584 they could then be at risk of retesting the 563 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina two-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-26 End of Day: Corn Drifts Lower as Wheat Rebounds and Beans Close Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures settled lower for the fourth day in a row, likely pressured by the threat of proposed tariffs on Mexico, along with basis contract pricing ahead of Friday’s First Notice Day.

  • Soybeans closed mixed, as they continue to trade just above contract lows. Sharply higher soybean oil lent support to soybeans, while favorable South American weather added resistance.

  • The threat of additional tariffs on imported Chinese goods supported soybean oil, which gained 138 points in the January contract, as they would likely slow the import of used cooking oil considerably.

  • All three wheat classes clawed back overnight gains to close mid-range after trading lower early in the session, as traders balanced a drier forecast and reduced Russian exports against exceptionally good crop ratings.

  • To see the updated US and South American precipitation forecasts scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished lower for the fourth straight day, with March futures testing 100-day moving average support. First Notice Day on Friday and basis contract pricing likely pressured the market, leading to the lowest close for March futures in November.

  • President-elect Trump announced a Day 1 tariff plan, proposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports. The prospect of retaliation likely limited positive price action.

  • Brazil’s soybean planting is 85% complete, well ahead of last year. The early pace should keep second-crop (safrinha) corn planting on schedule for key summer weather.

  • A strong US dollar has made US corn less competitive globally. While export sales remain solid, concerns are rising about a potential demand slowdown in early 2025 if the dollar strengthens further.

Above: The corn market became overbought and drifted back to the 425 area, if prices break through and close below the 50-day moving average (ma) they run the risk falling further and testing more major support near the 410 area and 100-day ma. If this 425 – 420 area holds prices could retest the 442 area with the potential of trading towards 465.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended mixed, with front months slightly lower and deferred months higher. Trade was volatile, with prices dropping up to seven cents after the open but recovering into the close. Soybean meal gave back yesterday’s gains, while soybean oil surged 1.38 cents in the January contract.

  • President-elect Trump’s Day 1 tariff plan, proposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports, likely weighed on grain markets during the session.

  • Soybean product prices have driven recent soybean movements. Soybean oil rose over 3% on the session, supporting bean prices, while soybean meal fell nearly 2% in the front-month contract.

  • With planting well ahead of last year’s pace, Brazilian weather stays favorable in the near term with little weather risk to the early soybean crop.

  • Brazilian Crop analyst, Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his 24/25 Brazilian soybean production forecast by 2.0 mmt to 168.0 mmt, citing a strong start and ideal weather in key growing regions.

Above: January soybeans continue to drift and test the 975 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of receding to the 940 support area around the August low. Should the 975 area hold turning prices back higher, they may find resistance between the 50-day moving average and 1014, before retesting the 1045 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex settled mid-range after trading on both sides of unchanged as the market balanced the best crop ratings for the week in six years, with a dry forecast and lower export estimates out of Russia.

  • The USDA reported winter wheat conditions as of November 24 at 55% good to excellent, the highest rating for this week in six years. The crop is also 97% planted, with 89% emergence.

  • Weather across much of the winter wheat areas is expected to be drier than normal through the first week of December, with normal to above-normal temperatures in the Plains states and cooler temperatures in the East.

  • SovEcon lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports to 44.1 mmt from 45.9 mmt, anticipating stricter export quotas. It was also noted that Russia has reduced its export quotas mid-season in recent years to protect domestic supplies.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front month Chicago wheat remains in a broad trading range between 536 down below and 586 up top. If the market can trade through the 50 and 200-day moving averages and close above 586 it could be poised to retest the 617 area. Whereas a close below 536 could put the market at risk of trading to the 521 – 514 support area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: March KC wheat found resistance just below the 50-day moving average, near 577. Should the market trade through this area and close above 583, it could be set to run towards the 593 – 603 area. Otherwise, close below 535 could press prices towards the August low of 527 ¼.

Above: Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Above: Winter wheat percentage emerged (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and versus last year (brown).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept. ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Since rolling to the March contract, front month Minneapolis wheat has been capped by resistance near the 50-day moving average around 613. A close above this point could put the market on track to test the October highs near 655, with potential resistance around the 200-day moving average. Should prices slide below 584 they could then be at risk of retesting the 563 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina two-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-25 End of Day: Grain Markets Close Mixed; Corn and Wheat Lower, Beans Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Lower trade in the neighboring wheat markets and sharply lower crude oil kept sellers engaged in the corn market, which closed near the low end of the day’s range and lower for the third consecutive day.

  • A drier forecast in Brazil and higher soybean meal lent support to the soybean market, which closed off session highs but higher for the second day in a row.

  • Soybean meal broke out to the upside of its congestion range as traders covered short positions, while soybean oil continued its downward trend on long liquidation and lower crude oil prices.

  • Sharp declines in Matif wheat, coupled with minimal news and much-needed rainfall in the Black Sea region, pressured the wheat complex lower, though prices partially recovered to settle well off session lows.

  • To see the updated US Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks and South American one-week precipitation forecasts scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished the session with mild losses after being led lower by selling pressure in the wheat and crude oil markets. The market has traded lower for the past three sessions.

  • Corn futures may face increased volatility this week, with December First Notice Day on Friday likely driving activity and money flow amid shortened trading hours following Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday.

  • The USDA released weekly export inspections this morning. Last week, US exporters shipped 903,000 mt (35.6 mb) of corn. Total inspections for the marketing year are at 395 mb, up 38% from last year.

  • Mexico entered the corn export market with a flash sale, purchasing 454,090 mt (17.9 mb) of corn, split between 364,792 mt (14.4 mb) for the 24/25 marketing year and 89,298 mt (3.5 mb) for 25/26.

  • Today’s sharp drop in crude oil prices will continue to pressure ethanol margins, possibly limiting demand. Talk of a potential ceasefire in the Middle East triggered a 3% drop in front-end crude oil prices.

Above: Overhead resistance for the March contract remains between 440 and 445. A close above this area could trigger a test of the 465 resistance area. If prices drift lower, support may come in between 425 and 420.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, November 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 4,639 contracts between November 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net long 114,628 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher, supported by soybean meal, while soybean oil slipped in a reversal of the meal-oil spread. This marked the second consecutive higher close for soybeans, though the January contract remains just 12 cents above its low. A slightly drier 15-day forecast for Brazil may have lent support.

  • Soybean export inspections totaled 77.2 mb for the week ending November 21, which was the high end of trade expectations. The USDA projects 1.825 bb in exports for 24/25, up 7% from last year.

  • In Brazil, AgRural estimates that soybean planting for 24/25 is 86% complete as of last Thursday, compared to 74% last year. Weather has been favorable, though the 15-day forecast is slightly drier.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as soybean sellers, adding 13,165 contracts to their net short position, now at 67,701 contracts as of November 19. Since then, funds are estimated to have sold another 7,000 contracts.

Above: January soybeans continue to drift and test the 975 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of receding to the 940 support area around the August low. Should a bullish story turn prices back higher, they may find resistance between the 50-day moving average and 1014.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, November 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 13,165 contracts between November 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 67,701 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Chicago and KC led the wheat complex lower, with weakness likely stemming from reports of much-needed rain in the Black Sea region and a quiet news front in the area, though tensions remain high.

  • Sharp declines in Paris milling wheat also contributed to the day’s losses.

  • Weekly Export Inspections showed that 361,000 mt of wheat were inspected for export through Nov. 21. The print was near the top end of expectations, putting year-to-date totals 31% ahead of last year.

  • Ukraine’s Ag Ministry stated the country’s total grain harvest declined 3.8% year over year to 53.4 mmt. Of this total, 22.4 mmt is wheat, which is just under the 22.5 mmt harvested last year.

  • Russia is expected to export a total of 55-60 mmt of grain for this season that began July 1. This is down from the 72 mmt total the country exported last year, which included 54.1 mmt of wheat.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Overhead resistance for March wheat remains near key moving averages between 578–586, with a close above 586 potentially targeting a move toward 617. Support is seen between 546–536, with major support near 521–514.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, November 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,239 contracts between November 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 51,546 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: March KC wheat found resistance just below the 50-day moving average, near 577. Should the market trade through this area and close above 583, it could be set to run towards the 593 – 603 area. Otherwise, close below 535 could press prices towards the August low of 527 ¼.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, November 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,277 contracts between November 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 29,375 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept. ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to March, leaving a gap between 580 ½ and 584 ½ from the contract roll. Resistance remains near 615–624, with initial support around 584 and major support near 563.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, November 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 7,578 contracts between November 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 30,002 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-22 End of Day: Soybeans Rebound into the Weekend, While Corn and Wheat Drift Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Heavy open interest surrounding the 425 and neighboring December corn strike prices, and concerns of slowing demand likely limited price action in the corn market, which closed the day with minor losses.

  • The soybean market bucked the trend of lower corn and wheat to close higher on the day as the January contract found support just above its contract lows and traders covered short positions.

  • Soybean oil continued its downward trend to close lower, pressured by weaker world veg oil markets, while meal rebounded from yesterday’s losses as it continues to consolidate near multi-year lows.

  • With little fresh bullish news to support prices, the wheat complex closed mid-range and lower in all three classes as traders squared positions and took profits ahead of the weekend.

  • To see the updated US and South American one week precipitation forecasts scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished softer, with potentially slowing demand and options expiration limiting prices. On weekly charts, corn remains in a consolidation pattern, finishing 1 ½ cents higher for the week.

  • December corn options expired today, and there was a large amount of open interest between the 420, 425, and 430 strike prices for both calls and puts, which seemed to hold prices throughout the week.

  • Concerns about slowing demand may weigh on the corn market heading into year-end. While export sales have been strong early in the marketing year, the USDA has not announced a flash sale since Nov. 13. Additionally, weekly ethanol production declined for the first time in weeks as higher corn prices and lower energy prices squeezed profit margins.

  • The corn market may face increased volatility next week, with December First Notice Day on Friday likely driving activity and money flow amid shortened trading hours following Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday.

Above: Overhead resistance for the March contract remains between 440 and 445. A close above this area could trigger a test of the 465 resistance area. Below the market, support may come in between 425 and 420.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended higher, snapping a three-day losing streak. January soybeans hit a fresh low overnight before recovering, likely on fund short covering ahead of the weekend. Soybean meal closed higher, while soybean oil continued to track lower palm oil.

  • The USDA reported a flash sale of 198,000 mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year, following three separate sales yesterday to China, unknown destinations, and the Philippines.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report showed soybean sales at 68.3 mb, at the high end of expectations. Top buyers were China, Mexico, and the Netherlands, bringing year-to-date commitments to 1.161 billion bushels, up 9% from last year versus the USDA’s 8% estimate.

  • South American weather remains largely favorable for crop development and planting progress. Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 35.8% of the soybean crop is planted, up from 20.1% last week.

Above: January soybeans continue to drift and test the 975 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of receding to the 940 support area around the August low. Should a bullish story turn prices back higher, they may find resistance between the 50-day moving average and 1014.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex closed lower across the board as traders squared positions ahead of the weekend, with little fresh bullish news from the Black Sea region and reports of strong yields in Australia.

  • While there were no new escalations in the Black Sea, reports indicate Russian President Putin called yesterday’s ICBM attack a successful test and plans to continue testing in combat situations.

  • Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry reported grain exports this season are up 43% year-over-year at 17.2 mmt. Of that, 8.6 mmt was wheat, a 57% increase from the same time last year.

  • Western Australia’s wheat crop is projected to exceed earlier expectations, with the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia estimating 24/25 production at 10.33 mmt — roughly 1 mmt higher than September’s forecast.

  • Argentina’s wheat harvest is progressing, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reporting 29.3% of the expected 18.6 mmt crop now harvested.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Overhead resistance for March wheat remains near key moving averages between 578–586, with a close above 586 potentially targeting 617. Support is seen between 546–536, with major support near 521–514.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: March KC wheat found resistance just below the 50-day moving average, near 577. Should the market trade through this area and close above 583, it could be set to run towards the 593 – 603 area. Otherwise, close below 535 could press prices towards the August low of 527 ¼.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • New sales targets will be issued in the coming weeks, as timing and conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to March, leaving a gap between 580 ½ and 584 ½ from the contract roll. Resistance remains near 615–624, with initial support around 584 and major support near 563.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-21 End of Day: Grains Slide Lower Thursday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Selling pressure in grain markets weighed on corn futures Thursday, as double-digit soybean losses and a stronger U.S. dollar capped potential gains.

  • Soybeans fell for a third straight day, with March and deferred contracts hitting new lows despite strong export sales and daily flash sales. Declines were driven by weaker soybean oil and continued favorable South American weather, as soybean oil also closed lower.

  • Four-month high export sales and higher French wheat prices were not enough to pull wheat futures higher today, a stronger US Dollar added downside pressure.

  • To see the updated US and South American one week precipitation forecasts scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • General selling pressure in the grain markets weighed on corn futures on Thursday. Double digit losses in the soybean market and renewed strength in the U.S. dollar limited gains in the corn market.

  • The U.S. dollar pushed to new highs for the move today as the value of the dollar broke out of its recent consolidation pattern to the upside. A strong dollar limits the competitiveness of U.S. corn on the export market.

  • The USDA announced weekly exports sales on Thursday morning. Last week, exporters posted 1.494 MMT (58.8 mb) of new corn sales for the current marketing year. This total was within market expectations, Mexico remained the top buyer of U.S. corn last week.

  • Weak energy prices and rising corn costs have pushed most ethanol plant margins negative. While demand exceeds expectations, prolonged margin pressure could curb corn usage for ethanol.

  • The corn market may see an increase in volatility going into the weekend and Thanksgiving Day Holiday. December options expire on Friday and First Notice Day nears next week, which could bring an increase in activity and money flow. 

Above: Overhead resistance for the March contract comes in between 440 and 445. A close above this area could trigger a test of the 465 resistance area. Below the market, support may come in between 425 and 420.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the third consecutive day causing the March contract and beyond to post new contract lows. The move came despite solid export sales and a slew of flash sales. Prices were driven lower by lower soybean oil and continued good weather in South America. Soybean oil ended the day lower as well.

  • Today’s export sales report showed soybean export sales totaling 68 million bushels which was above the average trade guess. This brought year to date commitments to 1.161 billion which is up 9% from YA compared to the USDA estimate of 8%.

  • This morning, private exporters reported multiple soybean flash sales. 198,000 metric tons of soybeans were reported to delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year, 135,000 metric tons were reported for delivery to unknown destinations, and 133,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal were reported for delivery to the Philippines during the 24/25 marketing year.

  • Rumors of China’s interest in U.S. soybeans circulated last night, with Sino Grain actively buying February shipments. This may have been the flash sale seen this morning, but it could also indicate that China is looking to make additional soybean purchases from the US.

Above: Soybeans appear to have found nearby support around 986. A close above 1014 could lead to another test of the 1044 -1050 area. Otherwise, should the market trade through 986 and close below 975 support, prices could drift towards 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat faded from overnight highs despite rising Black Sea tensions and higher Matif wheat, with December contracts facing resistance near their 20-day moving averages. A stronger US dollar hitting 13-month highs likely added pressure.

  • Weekly export sales for wheat came in at a four-month high of 20 mb for the 24/25 marketing year. Year-to-date commitments are now 544 mb, up 23% from last year and in line with historical averages.

  • This week’s updated Drought Monitor showed 40% of the winter wheat areas are experiencing drought, down from 43% last week, and 41% last year, as recent rain has helped improve conditions.

  • Escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions, including reports of a Russian ICBM strike, continue to influence wheat. The recent rally appears driven by less bullish short covering, not fresh buying, as volume and open interest have declined.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Overhead resistance for March wheat lies near key moving averages around 578–586, with a close above potentially targeting 617. Support is seen between 546–536, with major support near 521–514.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: With initial support below the market remaining in the 545 – 535 area, prices remain poised to test the heavy resistance area around 580 – 583. A close above that level could allow for a test of 593 – 603. Otherwise, close below 535 could press prices towards the August low of 527 ¼.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • New sales targets will be issued in the coming weeks, as timing and conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to March, leaving a gap between 580 ½ and 584 ½ from the contract roll. Resistance remains near 615–624, with initial support around 584 and major support near 563.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-20 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Recover to the Upside, While Beans Slide

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • With support from the neighboring wheat market and a solid ethanol production report, corn futures managed their highest close in nearly two weeks, a difficult task as sellers have stepped in at these levels.

  • Sharply lower soybean oil and the prospect of a large Brazilian soybean crop continue to weigh on the soybean market, which closed in the bottom third of the day’s 15-cent range despite new export sales.

  • Soybean oil closed with a 3.47% loss after breaking support in the January contract as traders move to take profits and liquidate long positions triggered by weak world veg oil prices.

  • Despite a stronger US dollar and Southern Hemisphere harvests, wheat closed higher across the board, rebounding from earlier declines as traders continue to add war premium to prices.

  • To see updated US and South American precipitation forecasts and GRACE-based Drought Indicators, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued when seasonal opportunities improve.  This could be as early as late fall or as late as early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures edged higher on Wednesday, marking their highest close since November 8. The 430-price level December continues to cap gains as sellers step in near this point.

  • Weekly ethanol production dropped to 1.110 million barrels/day for the week ending November 15, down 3.27 million from the prior week but 8.5% higher than last year. Corn use totaled 111.6 mb, approximately 15.9 mb/day, above the pace needed to meet the USDA’s yearly ethanol grind target.

  • The USDA will release weekly corn export sales Thursday, with expectations between 1.0 and 2.2 mmt. Last week’s 1.35 mmt sales were a bit disappointing, possibly due to a stronger US dollar reducing competitiveness.

  • The cereal grain markets, corn and wheat, will be keeping a close eye on geo-political tensions between Ukraine and Russia. A possible escalation of the ongoing war between the two would likely be supportive for both cereal grain markets.

  • The corn market may see an increase in volatility this week as December options expire Friday and First Notice Day nears next week, which could bring an increase in activity and money flow.

Above: Overhead resistance for the March contract comes in between 440 and 445. A close above this area could trigger a test of the 465 resistance area. Below the market, support may come in between 425 and 420.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the second day, with January contracts near session lows and 17 cents above the August contract low. Pressure came from weaker soybean oil, dragged down by lower palm oil, while soybean meal ended slightly higher.

  • The USDA reported private export sales totaling 202,000 mt of soybeans to China and 226,200 mt to unknown destinations, both for 24/25 delivery.

  • Abiove raised its 24/25 Brazil soybean production estimate to 167.7 mmt, surpassing CONAB’s 166.14 mmt projection. If realized, this record crop could boost exports to 104.1 mmt according to the firm.

  • China’s October US soybean imports surged to 541,434 mt, nearly doubling last year, as buyers accelerated purchases amid trade tension concerns. Imports from Brazil totaled 8.09 mmt, maintaining its position as China’s top supplier.

Above: Soybeans appear to have found nearby support around 986. A close above 1014 could lead to another test of the 1044 -1050 area. Otherwise, should the market trade through 986 and close below 975 support, prices could drift towards 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • US wheat posted modest gains despite a strong day and positive reversal for Matif wheat futures, with a higher US Dollar Index likely keeping wheat prices in check.

  • Wheat harvests in Australia and Argentina continue to pressure US markets, with Argentina’s wheat export values dropping $6 to $216/mt, making US wheat less competitive globally.

  • EU soft wheat exports reached 8.79 mmt for the season as of November 17, down 31% from 12.7 mmt during the same period last year, according to the European Commission.

  • Houthi rebels launched two separate unsuccessful missile attacks on a grain vessel en route from Ukraine to Pakistan on November 17 and 18, escalating regional tensions.

  • Russia’s wheat export duty increased 4.7%, from 2,569.2 to 2,689.7 Rubels per mt starting November 20. In 2021 Russia initiated floating duties on exports of corn, barley, and wheat, with the funds going to subsidize agriculture producers.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Overhead resistance for March wheat lies near key moving averages around 578–586, with a close above potentially targeting 617. Support is seen between 546–536, with major support near 521–514.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: With initial support below the market remaining in the 545 – 535 area, prices remain poised to test the heavy resistance area around 580 – 583. A close above that level could allow for a test of 593 – 603. Otherwise, close below 535 could press prices towards the August low of 527 ¼.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • New sales targets will be issued in the coming weeks, as timing and conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to March, leaving a gap between 580 ½ and 584 ½ from the contract roll. Resistance remains near 615–624, with initial support around 584 and major support near 563.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-19 End of Day: Corn and Beans Close Lower with Wheat Well off Its Highs

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • With little fresh news to trade, the corn market faded from early session highs and reversed lower as it came under pressure from neighboring soybeans and traders took profits from the recent rally.

  • Weakness in both products, and the prospect of a large South American soybean crop continue to weigh on the soybean market, which closed near session lows following a day of choppy trade.

  • Despite escalating tensions in the Black Sea, all three wheat classes closed well off the session highs pressured by solid winter wheat crop ratings, and the advancing harvest in the Southern Hemisphere.

  • To see updated US and South American weather outlooks, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued when seasonal opportunities improve.  This could be as early as late fall or as late as early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn gained early strength from a higher wheat market driven by rising Black Sea war tensions but succumbed to potential profit-taking as it hit resistance above 430 CZ. Additional pressure came from lower-trading soybeans.

  • Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reported that the country’s corn acres are expected to expand next year by 500,000 hectares (1.2 million acres), primarily from soybean acres.

  • The December/March corn spread traded to -9 ¾ cents, its strongest level in eleven months before fading midday, as strong demand supports basis and spreads with processors and exporters working to keep supply lines filled.

  • The corn market may see an increase in volatility this week as December options expire Friday and First Notice Day nears next week, which could bring an increase in activity and money flow.

Above: Soybeans appear to have found nearby support around 986. A close above 1014 could lead to another test of the 1044 -1050 area. Otherwise, should the market trade through there and close below 975 support, prices could drift towards 940.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended lower after mixed trade, with early overnight gains erased by pressure from weaker soybean oil and slightly lower meal. Prices remain near the $10 mark as favorable South American weather weighs on the market, while strong demand provides underlying support.

  • Brazil’s Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro announced plans to unveil farm agreements and potential export deals with China, covering various ag products. This comes amid rising tensions involving Russia, the US, and China.

  • Brazil’s 24/25 soybean planting reached 80% by November 14, up from 67% a week ago and 68% last year. Weather remains favorable, with consistent rain in central regions supporting the crop.

  • As of the latest CFTC report, managed funds held a net short position of 55,000 contracts. Since November 12, funds have been relatively quiet, adding an estimated 5,000 short contracts.

Above: Soybeans appear to have found nearby support around 986. A close above 1014 could lead to another test of the 1044 -1050 area. Otherwise, should the market trade through 986 and close below 975 support, prices could drift towards 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat faded from early strength to close slightly higher across all three classes, mirroring Paris milling wheat futures. A lack of fresh news and ongoing Southern Hemisphere harvests may be capping gains.

  • According to the USDA, as of November 17, 94% of the US winter wheat crop was planted, in line with last year but slightly below the 96% average. Emergence reached 84%, matching the average but 1% below last year. The crop is rated 49% good to excellent, up 5% from last week and the highest for this time of year in six years.

  • Black Sea tensions continue to add war premium to wheat. Reports indicate Ukraine used a US long-range missile to strike a Russian ammunition depot, raising concerns of further conflict escalation.

  • Cereals Canada projects the 2024 wheat crop at 34.3 mmt, 4% above last year and 8% above the five-year average. Exports could reach 25.4 mmt, potentially making Canada the world’s third-largest wheat exporter.

  • Ukraine’s deputy agriculture minister estimates the 2025 wheat crop could reach 25 mmt, up from 22 mmt in 2024, due to an expected increase in planted area to 5 million hectares from 4.6 million hectares.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to the March contract. Major support below the market remains between 521 and 514, though intermediate support may be found 535. Overhead, heavy resistance remains between 580 and 586.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: With initial support below the market remaining in the 545 – 535 area, prices remain poised to test the heavy resistance area around 580 – 583. A close above that level could allow for a test of 593 – 603. Otherwise, close below 535 could press prices towards the August low of 527 ¼.

Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • New sales targets will be issued in the coming weeks, as timing and conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to the March contract and the chart gap left between 580 ½ and 584 ½ represents the price difference between the two contract months. Overhead resistance remains between 615 and 624, and while major underlying support lies near 563, initial support may come in near 584.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-18 End of Day: Grain Markets Close Strong to Start the Week.

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover strength from neighboring wheat and a drop in the US dollar from recent highs lent support to the corn market, which followed through on Friday’s gains to close just off today’s highs.

  • Fresh export sales and solid weekly export inspections helped drive the soybean market from its overnight lows to close at the top end of its range, as it followed through on Friday’s strength.

  • Following a day of choppy two-sided trade, soybean meal and oil both traded off Friday’s support to shed overnight lows and close higher on the day.

  • All three wheat classes settled near the tops of their ranges, supported by escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions and a weaker US dollar.

  • To see updated US and South American weather outlooks, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued when seasonal opportunities improve.  This could be as early as late fall or as late as early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A strong move higher in wheat futures and a drop from the near-term peak in the US dollar supported corn futures with some follow through buying after Fridays positive close.

  • This morning’s USDA Export Inspections report showed 821,000 mt (32.3 mb) of corn shipped last week, near the top of expectations. Year-to-date shipments are 9.021 mmt, up 32% from last year.

  • The US Dollar Index eased off its highs today, signaling a potential near-term top. A potential correction could be friendly for commodity markets.

  • The corn market may face additional volatility ahead of Thanksgiving as December options expire this Friday, followed by First Notice Day next week, which could drive increased money flow and trade activity.

Above: Soybeans appear to have found nearby support around 986. A close above 1014 could lead to another test of the 1044 -1050 area. Otherwise, should the market trade through there and close below 975 support, prices could drift towards 940.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 12. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 87,946 contracts between Nov. 6 – 12, bringing their total position to a net long 109,989 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher, led by front months on strong demand. Flash sales were reported this morning, and the USDA noted a large NOPA crush number Friday. Seasonal trends between Thanksgiving and New Year may also be driving fund activity. Both meal and oil finished higher.

  • The USDA announced fresh export sales of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil for the 24/25 marketing year. Reported sales include 261,264 mt of soybeans to Mexico, 135,000 mt of meal to the Philippines, and 30,000 mt of oil to India.

  • Weekly USDA Export Inspections showed 79.6 mb of soybeans inspected for export last week, as expected. Year-to-date inspections are 9% ahead of last year.

  • According to AgRural, 80% of Brazil’s 24/25 soybean crop was planted as of last Thursday, significantly ahead of the 67% pace the previous year and the five-year average of 68%, which is impressive given the slow start to year.

  • Reports suggest China plans to reduce its export tax rebate on used cooking oil, a move that could limit US imports of the product for biofuel production.

Above: Resistance in the 1044-1050 area held with the market reversal to the downside, suggesting a potential retreat toward the October lows, where support may be found near 975. If prices regain their strength, a close above 1014 could lead to another test of the 1044 -1050 area.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 12. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 15,576 contracts between Nov. 6 – 12, bringing their total position to a net short 54,536 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted double-digit gains across all classes, fueled by escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions and a weaker US Dollar Index. Russia launched attacks on Ukraine’s electrical grid, while reports suggest the US has approved Ukraine’s use of longer-range missiles against Russia.

  • Weekly wheat inspections reached 7.2 mb, bringing 24/25 totals to 379 mb, up 31% year-over-year and ahead of the USDA’s pace to reach its projected 825 mb in annual exports, a 17% increase over last year.

  • Chinese customs data shows October wheat imports at 220,000 mt, down 66.2% year-over-year, but year-to-date imports are up 1.2% to 10.96 mmt.

  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated managed funds sold 14,500 Chicago, 11,000 Kansas City, and 5,000 Minneapolis wheat contracts, pushing their combined short position to 93,000 contracts — the largest in two months.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to the March contract. Major support below the market remains between 521 and 514, though intermediate support may be found 535. Overhead, heavy resistance remains between 580 and 586.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 12. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 14,526 contracts between Nov. 6 – 12, bringing their total position to a net short 45,307 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to the March contract. A reversal back higher may still encounter heavy resistance near 580 – 583 before testing the 593 – 603 area. Below the market, initial support may come in between 545 and 535, while major support remains near the 527 ¼ August low. 

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 12. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 11,018 contracts between Nov. 6 – 12, bringing their total position to a net short 25,098 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • New sales targets will be issued in the coming weeks, as timing and conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to the March contract and the chart gap left between 580 ½ and 584 ½ represents the price difference between the two contract months. Overhead resistance remains between 615 and 624, and while major underlying support lies near 563, initial support may come in near 584.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 12. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,316 contracts between Nov. 6 – 12, bringing their total position to a net short 22,424 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-15 End of Day: Grain Markets Rebound Across the Board Going into the Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market closed near the top of the day’s range, as traders covered short positions ahead of the weekend. Additional support came from higher soybeans and wheat, and overall solid export demand.

  • Soybeans settled mid-range and in the green, pulled higher by strong meal and sharply higher bean oil prices. Record NOPA crush for October also lent support despite declining export sales.

  • Sharply higher Matif wheat and general buying across the ag space supported the wheat complex as it attempted to recover from oversold conditions from the week’s sharp slide.

  • To see updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, and GRACE-based drought indicators,  scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity for catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market has traded back towards the top of the 397 – 434 range that it has been in since September. If you missed any of our three previous sales recommendations from earlier in the season, this rally represents a good opportunity to begin to catch up.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices recovered Friday on short covering and support from broader buying across the grain markets and overall strong export demand. Despite Friday’s gains, December corn futures ended the week 7 cents lower.

  • Weekly export sales totaled 1.315 mt for 24/25, down 53% from last week and 52% from the 4-week average. Mexico remains the top buyer. Sales were at the low end of expectations, but total accumulated sales are up 42% year-over-year.

  • Gains in the corn market may remain limited as December options expiration and First Notice Day approach. Additionally, producers’ decisions on basis and price later contracts could add selling pressure and market volatility.

  • South American weather is favorable for crops, with Brazil receiving moisture and Argentina seeing some dryness relief. Argentina’s corn planting is 39% complete.

  • The US dollar’s strength may be pressuring grain markets, slowing weekly export sales and tightening the price gap with competing supplies from Ukraine and Argentina.

Above: The charts have rolled from the December contract to the March. Overhead resistance for the March contract comes in between 440 and 445. A close above this area could trigger a test of the 465 resistance area. Below the market, support may come in between 425 and 420.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher, recovering some of yesterday’s losses, but January failed to close above the 10-dollar mark. A strong crush pace lent support, while export sales were slightly disappointing. Both meal and oil also ended higher.

  • NOPA October soybean crush hit a record 199 mb, above expectations of 196 mb, as US crushing runs at record capacity. Soybean oil stocks ticked higher to 1.069 billion pounds, still the lowest November level since 2014.

  • Soybean export sales totaled 1.555 mmt, down 24% from last week and at the lower end of expectations. Unknown destinations canceled 332,000 mt, but total sales for the marketing year remain up 6% year-over-year.

  • CONAB raised its 24/25 Brazil soybean production estimate to 166.14 mmt, up from 116.05 mmt last month. Planted area increased slightly, while yields are unchanged, marking a large crop despite early-season dryness.

Above: Resistance in the 1044-1050 area held with the market reversal to the downside, suggesting a potential retreat toward the October lows, where support may be found near 975. If prices regain their strength, a close above 1014 could lead to another test of the 1044 -1050 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat rebounded with corn and soybeans today, supported by sharply higher Matif wheat futures. All three US wheat classes closed higher but ended the week lower, with December Chicago down 36 cents, Kansas City down 24 ¼, and Minneapolis down 25.

  • The USDA reported 14.0 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Weekly shipments of 11.1 mb lagged the 15.3 mb pace needed to reach the 825 mb export goal. Total sales commitments are 524 mb, up 20% year-over-year.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange kept Argentina’s wheat production estimate at 18.6 mmt, above the USDA’s 17.5 mmt. Argentina’s wheat harvest is 17% complete.

  • Russia raised its wheat export tax by 4.7% to 2,689.70 Rubles per mt through November 26.

  • Ukraine’s grain harvest is 96% complete at 52 mmt, including 22.4 mmt of wheat. Ukraine’s agriculture ministry is projecting a total crop of 54 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus Dec ’24 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to the March contract. Major support below the market remains between 521 and 514, though intermediate support may be found 535. Overhead, heavy resistance remains between 580 and 586.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to the March contract. A reversal back higher may still encounter heavy resistance near 580 – 583 before testing the 593 – 603 area. Below the market, initial support may come in between 545 and 535, while major support remains near the 527 ¼ August low. 

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 630 – 655 area versus Dec’24 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • New sales targets will be issued in the coming weeks, as timing and conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to the March contract and the chart gap left between 580 ½ and 584 ½ represents the price difference between the two contract months. Overhead resistance remains between 615 and 624, and while major underlying support lies near 563, initial support may come in near 584.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.