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10-24 End of Day: Soybeans Stumble into the Close, Corn and Wheat Hold onto Gains

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Record strong weekly export sales and more daily flash export sales of corn helped keep upward momentum in corn futures as we head toward the end of the week.

  • After strong weekly export sales this morning, soybean futures traded higher before ending the day slightly lower. Soybean oil futures continued higher today while soybean meal futures fell lower for a third straight session.

  • Wheat futures ended the day mostly higher after non-impressive weekly export sales were reported this morning. Weather worries around the globe, as well as in the US Plains, continues to keep support under the wheat complex.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast and the South American 7-day total precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market extended its rally for the fourth consecutive day, with the December contract closing just above the mid-point of the day’s 5 ¾ cent range as strong weekly export sales and another flash sale kept upward momentum in place.

  • This morning the USDA reported weekly export sales as of October 17. New sales for the 24/25 marketing year were strong, coming in above expectations at 141.8 mb (3.603 mmt) Sales for the 25/26 marketing year were near the low end of expectations at 22.8 mb (581,000 mt). The strong combined sales mark the fifth-largest weekly sales total in the last twenty years.

  • Keeping in the theme of strong US corn demand, the USDA announced new private export sales of corn totaling 165,000 mt to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year. This marks the seventh consecutive day with announced flash sales of corn.

  • Basis levels for corn continue to remain firm in the Midwest, reflecting strong demand for fresh supplies at processors and the slowing pace of farmer sales as they remain busy considering harvest weather remains favorable.

  • November options expire on Friday. While corn futures lack a November contract, there is a November options contract tied to December futures, with significant open interest at the 420 strike price. This could lead to added volatility around the 420 level in December futures as options trading wraps up. 

Above: The rally from the 400 support level puts December corn on track towards a potential test of the 428 – 434 resistance area. If the turnaround fails and prices breach the 400 area and close below 397, prices could be at risk of retreating towards the 385 support level.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After peaking in early October, the soybean market declined as harvest activity and hedge pressure increased rapidly, driven by warm, dry conditions in the US and improving planting conditions in Brazil. With the harvest now in its final stages, we are entering a period when selling opportunities tend to improve as hedge pressure eases, and South American weather becomes a more dominant factor in their growing season. That said, managed funds hold a relatively small net short position, which creates the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions decline or US demand improves, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if South American conditions improve and US demand remains stagnant, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed the June sales recommendation triggered by the market’s close below 1180, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the current harvest period to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 could provide a good opportunity. For those with storage or capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Nov ’24. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day after opening significantly higher. The November contract ended the day slightly lower while January was unchanged, and the deferred contracts ended slightly higher. Solid exports this morning pushed prices higher, but they began to slide around midday. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher. This was the lowest close for December meal since August 29.

  • Today’s Export Sales report showed another week of strong sales in soybeans. The USDA reported an increase of 79.1 million bushels of soybean export sales for 24/25 which was at the upper range of analyst expectations. Last week’s export shipments of 89.9 mb were well above the 35.9 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, unknown destinations, and Japan.

  • This morning, private exporters reported a sale of 198,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year. This follows two sales reported yesterday which were for 130,000 mt and 259,000 mt to China and unknown destinations respectively. Good export demand has been a large source of support for soybeans and corn recently.

  • The US ag attaché in Brazil is now estimating that the 24/25 soybean crop in the country will be 161 mmt. This estimate has been increased from 160 mmt in the previous estimate. While planting had a late start in Brazil, the pace has picked back up quickly with steady rains.

Above: The recent downtrend appears to have found support near 980 on the front month chart, and with the market showing signs of being oversold, prices could rebound toward recent highs near 1070. Before that, prices may encounter resistance around 1025. If prices break the 980 support level in the January contract, they could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Except for deferred Kansas City contracts, wheat closed higher across the board today, and this is despite trading both sides of neutral through the session. The US Dollar Index did finally take a breather today, which may have eased some pressure on the wheat market.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 19.6 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 10.2 mb fell under the 14.9 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 825 mb. Wheat sales commitments have reached 481 mb for 25/25 which is up 18% from last year.

  • According to the Rosario Grain Exchange, recent heavy rains in key growing regions of Argentina were a “game changer” for corn and wheat farmers. Reportedly, between 30-90 millimeters of rain was received in the last 24 hours. This is said to be crucial for wheat, which is in the last few weeks of yield development before harvest begins in November.

  • The US ag attaché for Australia has estimated their 24/25 wheat harvest at 28.5 mmt, which falls under the USDA’s forecast of 32 mmt, and is also 1.9 mmt below the 10-year average. Additionally, the attaché has Australian wheat exports at 20 mmt, down from the USDA’s estimate of 25 mmt.

  • According to the USDA, as of October 22, an estimated 58% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions – this is up from 52% last week. In addition, drought in spring wheat areas has also increased from 32% to 37% for the same time period.  

  • Since the season began on July 1, Ukrainian grain exports have totaled 13.3 mmt in the face of an ongoing war. This is up 60% year on year from just 8.3 mmt in the same timeframe last year, according to their ag ministry. Wheat in particular is up 77% year on year with 7.3 mmt of exports. With this said, there is some concern about the winter crops that are currently being planted. According to APK-Inform, almost all seedlings are underdeveloped due to the impacts of drought this summer and fall.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since reaching its recent high in early October, the Chicago wheat market has gradually moved lower as conditions in the Southern Hemisphere improved. While some production concerns in Australia appear to have eased, dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Despite more competitive Russian and Black Sea wheat prices, US export demand remains firm, though these lower prices may still limit US prices. However, any US crop concerns or increased demand could support higher prices. Additionally, the managed funds’ net short position is much smaller than it was in late July, giving them the flexibility to either extend their shorts or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the coming weeks.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts—after advising to exit the first half back in July—to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since hitting resistance near 617, December Chicago wheat has stair-stepped lower to the point of testing the 575 – 560 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of sliding toward the major support area between 521 and 514. Though intermediate support may be found around 544. Meanwhile, initial overhead resistance may lie between 595 and 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through early October also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although more competitive Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The December KC wheat contract appears to have found support in the 580 – 575 area. A break below this level could put the market at risk of trading toward 561 support. Otherwise, should this area of support hold, prices could rebound toward recent highs and test resistance near 623, with initial resistance around 592.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded up to its 200-day moving average and its highest level since mid-July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 75% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While more competitive export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break below the 100-day moving average suggests that prices could drift further toward the 604 support area, with additional support near the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. If prices turn higher, overhead resistance may be around 632, with stronger resistance near 655.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-23 End of Day: Markets Recover from Early Losses to Close Mostly in the Green

ByLisa Heder

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market pressed higher for the third day in a row, driven by strong demand, an improving export basis, and this week’s options expiration, before hitting resistance at the 420 price level in the December contract.

  • Flash export sales of soybeans totaling 389,000 metric tons reported this morning helped drive the soybean market to its third consecutively higher close, despite weakness in both soybean meal and oil.

  • All three classes of wheat found support near yesterday’s lows before rallying back to close mixed. Chicago contracts showed the most strength, closing higher on the day, while KC contracts posted minor losses, and Minneapolis settled mixed, with nearby contracts losing ground to deferreds.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the South American 7-day total precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished higher for the third consecutive day but ran into resistance at the 420 level in December corn. Options expiration, improved demand, and strong gulf basis bids helped support the corn market as we moved into the back half of harvest.

  • On Friday, November grain options expire. Although there is no November futures contract for corn, the market does have short-term November options that expire on Friday. The largest area of open interest for November corn options is at the 420 level, and prices have moved into this range, which could introduce additional volatility as option expiration approaches.

  • The USDA announced a flash export sale of corn this morning. Exporters sold 100,000 mt (3.9 mb) to unknow destinations for the current marketing year. This was the sixth consecutive day of an announced export sale for corn.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. The market is expecting a strong sales total for last week. Expectations are for 2.2 – 3.3 mmt of new sales. A large portion of these sales totals are known given the daily sales announcements by the USDA.

  • Weekly ethanol production remains strong, pushing to 1.081 mb/day last week, up from the week prior and 4% above last year. A total of 108.7 mb of corn was used last week in ethanol production, with the current usage pace ahead of the USDA target for the marketing year.

Above: The rally from the 400 support level puts December corn on track towards a potential test of the 428 – 434 resistance area. If the turnaround fails and prices breach the 400 area and close below 397, prices could be at risk of retreating towards the 385 support level.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After peaking in early October, the soybean market declined as harvest activity and hedge pressure increased rapidly, driven by warm, dry conditions in the US and improving planting conditions in Brazil. With the harvest now in its final stages, we are entering a period when selling opportunities tend to improve as hedge pressure eases, and South American weather becomes a more dominant factor in their growing season. That said, managed funds hold a relatively small net short position, which creates the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions decline or US demand improves, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if South American conditions improve and US demand remains stagnant, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed the June sales recommendation triggered by the market’s close below 1180, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the current harvest period to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 could provide a good opportunity. For those with storage or capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Nov ’24. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher for the third straight session, with the November contract leading the way, while the deferred contracts trailed. As November options expiration approaches on Friday, there is substantial open interest at the $10 strike. However, the November contract has yet to rally above the $10.00 mark, since prices tend to gravitate toward strikes with large open interest.

  • Trading in the soybean complex was interesting today, as both soybean meal and oil traded lower, while soybeans themselves closed higher. Yesterday, soybean oil gained over 3%, providing clear support for soybeans. Since the beginning of the month, soybean meal has moved inversely to soybeans, losing $27.10 so far.

  • This morning, the USDA reported two flash sales by private exporters. The first sale was for 130,000 metric tons of soybeans to be delivered to China during the 24/25 marketing year, while the second was for 259,000 metric tons to unknown destinations, also for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year. Overall, export sales have been supportive over the past week.

  • In Brazil, 18% of the soybean crop is now planted, compared to 8% last week and 30% at this time last year. Most of the country received rain last week, and the forecast for this week predicts 1 to 4 inches of rain in central Brazil. The season had a rocky start due to extremely dry conditions but has since shown signs of recovery.

Above: The recent downtrend appears to have found support near 980 on the front month chart, and with the market showing signs of being oversold, prices could rebound toward recent highs near 1070. Before that, prices may encounter resistance around 1025. If prices break the 980 support level in the January contract, they could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed in mixed fashion with small gains for Chicago, small losses for Kansas City, and was mixed for Minneapolis as the deferred months gained on the front. Matif wheat had a similar story with a 0.25 Euro rally in the December front month, but losses of 0.25 to 0.50 Euros in the deferred contracts. US wheat finished the session relatively strong, considering that the US Dollar Index scored a fresh near-term high above the 104.50 barrier.

  • India’s cash wheat price is said to have hit the equivalent of $9.59 per bushel, which is a new season high. This continues to reinforce the idea that their nation may need to import wheat, which offers a bullish tone to the marketplace.

  • At a BRICS summit, Vladimir Putin reportedly proposed once again the creation of a new grain exchange for these countries. The idea is based on the premise that it would allow for fair price discovery, become a predictable price indicator, and assist in ensuring global food security. Putin added that the exchange could later include other commodities, such as energy and metals.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine, and dryness in the US plains. The nearly 100-cent rally from the August low to October high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While cheaper Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move toward the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts—after advising to exit the first half back in July—to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since hitting resistance near 617, December Chicago wheat has stair-stepped lower to the point of testing the 575 – 560 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of sliding toward the major support area between 521 and 514. Though intermediate support may be found around 544. Meanwhile, initial overhead resistance may lie between 595 and 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through early October also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although more competitive Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The December KC wheat contract appears to have found support in the 580 – 575 area. A break below this level could put the market at risk of trading toward 561 support. Otherwise, should this area of support hold, prices could rebound toward recent highs and test resistance near 623, with initial resistance around 592.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded up to its 200-day moving average and its highest level since mid-July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 75% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While more competitive export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break below the 100-day moving average suggests that prices could drift further toward the 604 support area, with additional support near the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. If prices turn higher, overhead resistance may be around 632, with stronger resistance near 655.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-22 End of Day: Corn and Beans Follow Through on Monday’s Strength, as Wheat Recovers

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Strong demand for corn in the export market, along with bull spreading between the December and March corn contracts and higher soybean prices, kept buyers active in the corn market, which closed higher for the second consecutive day.

  • Led by sharply higher soybean oil and waning hedge pressure as soybean harvest begins to wind down, the soybean market was able to follow through on yesterday’s strength to settle with modest gains.

  • Soybean oil found support from higher palm oil prices, as Indonesia reaffirmed its commitment to implement B50, a 50% biodiesel blend, and estimated its August 2024 palm oil stocks at their lowest level in five years.

  • Lower production estimates for Russia’s 2025 wheat crop helped drive all three classes of the wheat complex to a higher close after briefly trading below their respective 50-day moving averages in the December contracts.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 6-10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the South American 7-day total precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures traded higher for the second consecutive session as money flowed into the buy side of the grain markets on Tuesday. Strong buying through the session in the soybean market, and bull spreading in the corn market helped provide direction for the day.

  • The Gulf cash basis remains strong as exporters are looking for fresh corn and soybean supplies for the export market. The strong basis has been trickling into some local basis bids as the market is trying to move corn supplies. This is not a typical pricing action in heavy supply years, but the speed of harvest may have limited some grain flows.

  • Corn harvest is maintaining its rapid pace. On Monday’s USDA Crop progress report, national corn harvest was 65% complete. This was above market expectations, up 10% from last year’s pace and 13% above the 5-year average. With the recent dry weather, this is the fastest corn harvest since 2012.

  • Mexico stepped back into the US corn export market overnight, with the USDA reporting a flash sale of 359,500 mt (14.2 mb) for the 24/25 market year. Since Oct. 16, Mexico has purchased 1.77 mmt (69.7 mb) of US corn.

  • Brazil’s first corn crop is 48% planted, according to the analyst firm AgRural. This first corn crop is primarily intended for domestic use rather than export. However, a slow soybean planting pace could limit the key safrinha (second) corn crop. Later planting dates for the second crop could push it past critical weather windows, potentially extending the export window for available US supplies.

Above: The rally from the 400 support level puts December corn on track towards a potential test of the 428 – 434 resistance area. If the turnaround fails and prices breach the 400 area and close below 397, prices could be at risk of retreating towards the 385 support level.

Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (brown).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After peaking in early October, the soybean market declined as harvest activity and hedge pressure increased rapidly, driven by warm, dry conditions in the US and improving planting conditions in Brazil. With the harvest now in its final stages, we are entering a period when selling opportunities tend to improve as hedge pressure eases, and South American weather becomes a more dominant factor in their growing season. That said, managed funds hold a relatively small net short position, which creates the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions decline or US demand improves, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if South American conditions improve and US demand remains stagnant, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed the June sales recommendation triggered by the market’s close below 1180, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the current harvest period to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 could provide a good opportunity. For those with storage or capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Nov ’24. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the second consecutive day with support from sharply higher soybean oil. The Chinese economic stimulus plan may be lending some support to soybean futures as trade hopes for stronger exports, and harvest is nearing completion in the US. Soybean meal was weaker today with a lower close.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that the US soybean crop is now 81% harvested, which is the fastest pace at this time of year since 2010. This compares to 67% a week ago and the 5-year average of 67%. As harvest progresses, there have been some concerns regarding yields in the drier areas of the Corn Belt.

  • In Brazil, 18% of the soybean crop is now planted which compares to 8% last week, and 30% the previous year. The majority of the country received rain last week and this week’s forecast has central Brazil receiving between 1 and 4 inches. The country has had a rocky start to the season with extremely dry conditions but has been recovering.

  • In Indonesia, the government has stated they would raise the biofuel mix to 40% and plan to increase palm oil production to keep up with demand. Eventually, the country plans to raise the palm-based biodiesel mix to 50%. The country’s palm oil exports have also risen in August to 2.385m tons from 2.241m in July.

Above: The recent downtrend appears to have found support near 980 on the front month chart, and with the market showing signs of being oversold, prices could rebound toward recent highs near 1070. Before that, prices may encounter resistance around 1025. If prices break the 980 support level in the January contract, they could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite minor losses in Paris milling wheat, all three wheat classes recovered from earlier losses to settle in the green after trading below their respective December contracts’ 50-day moving averages and likely finding buying support from reduced Russian wheat crop projections.

  • The USDA’s weekly crop progress report indicated that 73% of the winter wheat crop is planted as of Sunday, Oct. 20, behind the 5-year average of 76% and the average trade estimate of 77%.

  • The ag consultancy group IKAR issued its first projection for Russia’s 2025 wheat crop, estimating it between 80 and 85 million metric tons. Similarly, the other major Russian ag consultancy SovEcon estimates production at 80.1 mmt. If realized, this would be the smallest Russian crop since the 21/22 season. The reduced projections are largely due to recent dry conditions that delayed planting.

  • In the past 24 hours, moderate rains have provided limited relief to dry areas in central Kansas and southeastern Nebraska, though more rainfall is still needed. Meanwhile, parts of Russia, eastern Ukraine, and western Kazakhstan are also expected to receive light showers, but not enough to significantly alleviate drought conditions.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine, and dryness in the US plains. The nearly 100-cent rally from the August low to October high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While cheaper Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts—after advising to exit the first half back in July—to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since hitting resistance near 617, December Chicago wheat has stair-stepped lower to the point of testing the 575 – 560 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of sliding toward the major support area between 521 and 514. Though intermediate support may be found around 544. Meanwhile, initial overhead resistance may lie between 595 and 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through early October also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although more competitive Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The December KC wheat contract appears to have found support in the 580 – 575 area. A break below this level could put the market at risk of trading toward 561 support. Otherwise, should this area of support hold, prices could rebound toward recent highs and test resistance near 623, with initial resistance around 592.

Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded up to its 200-day moving average and its highest level since mid-July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 75% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While more competitive export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break below the 100-day moving average suggests that prices could drift further toward the 604 support area, with additional support near the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. If prices turn higher, overhead resistance may be around 632, with stronger resistance near 655.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil, N. Argentina 7-day total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 7-day total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-21 End of Day: Corn and Beans Settle Higher, Supported by Fresh Export Sales

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market settled at the upper end of its daily range, though below 410 resistance in the December contract, as it found support from several flash sales, solid export inspections totals and higher soybeans.

  • Continued bull spreading advanced November beans higher versus the January contract and helped support prices into the close along with new export sales, strong export inspections, and higher soybean meal and oil.

  • A surging US dollar and lower than expected wheat export inspections totals weighed heavily on the wheat complex today, which settled mixed on the day after trading higher earlier in the session.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, and the South American 1-week forecast total precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures followed soybeans higher as buyers supported the front month December futures, lifting the entire market higher. Despite today’s gains, the December contract failed to push through resistance at the 410 level.

  • The December-March corn spread has narrowed over the past week, moving from -18 cents under March futures last week to -13 ½ cents today. Bull spreading at harvest suggests an increase in demand for fresh supplies, driven either by a lack of farmer selling, increased export demand, or transportation issues. Mississippi River levels at Memphis have become restrictive, causing the basis for both corn and soybeans to shift to a premium over the Board. The need to transport corn to Gulf export terminals is likely supporting the bull spreading seen in the market.

  • Weekly corn export inspections were within expectations at 39 mb (1.00 mmt) for last week. Corn inspections are off to a strong start for the marketing year with total inspections up 31% over last year.

  • The USDA announced three separate corn flash sales before the session this morning. Mexico purchased 196,926 mt (6.7 mb), South Korea purchased 130,000 mt (5.1 mb) and Unknown purchased 198,192 mt (7.8 mb), all sales were for the 24/25 marketing year.

  • Corn harvest is expected to progress steadily as favorable weather conditions persist. The influx of new bushels into the pipeline will likely limit upside price potential in the corn market. Last week, the US corn harvest was 47% complete, and that figure is likely to increase again this week.

Above: The recent decline in prices from the early October high has been met with support near the psychologically significant 400 area. If this area holds and prices turn higher, the rally may be met with resistance around 415, with more significant resistance towards 428 – 434. Otherwise, a breach of 400 and close below 397 could signal a further decline with support near 385, and again around 372.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 63,259 contracts between Oct. 9 – 15, bringing their total position to a net short 86,988 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After hitting a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market rose steadily, reaching its peak in early October, driven by drier conditions in the US during the later stages of crop development and continued dryness in key soybean-growing regions of South America. During this time, managed funds covered over 80% of their significant short positions, creating the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions worsen, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if conditions improve, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and the market begins to price in any potential South American weather premium.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed the June sales recommendation triggered by the market’s close below 1180, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the current harvest period to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 could provide a good opportunity. For those with storage or capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Nov ’24. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher to start the week with the November contract leading the. November options expire this Friday, which could be impacting futures prices along with the export sales reported this morning. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher as well.

  • This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 116,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. The USDA also reported a sale of 264,000 mt of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.

  • Today’s export inspections report showed strong soybean numbers, totaling 89.4 million bushels for the week ending October 17. This brings total inspections for the 24/25 marketing year to 290 million bushels, down 3% from last year. The USDA projects total soybean exports at 1.850 billion bushels for 24/25, an increase of 9% from the previous year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report indicated that as of Oct. 15th, managed funds were net sellers of 18,543 soybean contracts, which increased their net short position to 40,341 contracts. When soybeans made their recent low in August, funds held a net short position of around 175,000 contracts.

Above: The recent downtrend appears to have found support near 980 on the front month chart, and with the market showing signs of being oversold, prices could rebound toward recent highs near 1070. Before that, prices may encounter resistance around 1025. If prices break the 980 support level in the January contract, they could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 18,543 contracts between Oct. 9 – 15, bringing their total position to a net short 40,341 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Early gains in wheat prices gave way to weakness, leading to a mixed close across the three futures classes. The US Dollar Index surged sharply today, hitting its highest level since early August and added pressure to the wheat market. Moreover, the index has traded above the 200-day moving average for three consecutive sessions, indicating potential for further gains.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections of 9.9 mb bring total 24/25 wheat inspections to 340 mb, which is up 34% from last year and ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace. The USDA is projecting 24/25 exports to rise 17% from last year, reaching 825 mb.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export prices ended last week at $234 per metric ton FOB, a $4 increase from the previous week. However, this remains below the October floor price of $240 set by the Russian Grain Export Union. In related news, SovEcon reported that Russia exported 1.01 mmt of grain last week, with wheat accounting for 940,000 mt, down from 1.19 mmt the previous week.

  • Southern Russia and eastern Ukraine continue to face drought conditions, though recent rains have provided some relief. However, as time progresses, the likelihood of frost and freezing conditions increases. Farmers are hoping for adequate winter precipitation to supply wheat with the necessary moisture as it emerges from dormancy.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine, and dryness in the US plains. The nearly 100-cent rally from the August low to October high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While cheaper Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts—after advising to exit the first half back in July—to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since hitting resistance near 617, December Chicago wheat has stair-stepped lower to the point of testing the 575 – 560 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of sliding toward the major support area between 521 and 514. Though intermediate support may be found around 544. Meanwhile, initial overhead resistance may lie between 595 and 600.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,436 contracts between Oct. 9 – 15, bringing their total position to a net short 26,013 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through early October also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although more competitive Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The December contract’s break below 592 suggests that prices could decline further toward 561, with initial support likely around the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. On the upside, initial resistance is expected near 592, with stronger resistance around 623.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 604 contracts between Oct. 9 – 15, bringing their total position to a net short 6,488 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded up to its 200-day moving average and its highest level since mid-July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 75% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While more competitive export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break below the 100-day moving average suggests that prices could drift further toward the 604 support area, with additional support near the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. If prices turn higher, overhead resistance may be around 632, with stronger resistance near 655.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,514 contracts between Oct. 9 – 15, bringing their total position to a net short 5,147 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-18 End of Day: Red Across the Board Going into the Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite strong export sales, the corn market was pressured by sharp declines in both soybeans and wheat, along with hedge activity ahead of the weekend, as it failed to advance much above the 408 resistance level (December) before drifting lower to close with small losses.

  • Soybeans changed course from Thursday to trade lower and close down on the day, pressured by hedging ahead of the weekend’s harvest activity, an improved South American weather outlook, and weakness in both meal and oil.

  • All three wheat classes settled lower on the day, with Chicago contracts leading the way down, as the complex came under heavy selling with reports that Russia is seeking to sell wheat to directly to “sovereign buyers,” which may limit US export sales to some key countries.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, US 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the South American 1-week forecast total precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market into harvest, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally. Until we post new sales targets, if you are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market failed to follow through on yesterday’s strength as strong selling in the wheat and soybean market limited potential price gains. Price action saw December corn fail at overhead resistance near 408, before slipping lower on the session. For the week, December corn lost 11 cents total.

  • Weekly export sales were strong for corn at 87.6 mb (2.225 mmt) for the week ending October 10. This total was above the high end of analysts’ expectations. Total sales are up 23% from last year and ahead of the pace to reach USDA 24/25 targets.

  • The USDA announced a flash export sale of corn before the session, with 125,000 mt (10.8 mb) purchased by unknown destinations for the current marketing year. This marks the fifth flash sale announced this week, as demand picked up around the 400 December futures price.

  • Corn harvest is expected to progress steadily as favorable weather conditions persist. The influx of new bushels into the pipeline will likely limit upside price potential in the corn market. Last week, the US corn harvest was 47% complete, and that figure is likely to increase again this week.

Above: The recent decline in prices from the early October high has been met with support near the psychologically significant 400 area. If this area holds and prices turn higher, the rally may be met with resistance around 415, with more significant resistance towards 428 – 434. Otherwise, a breach of 400 and close below 397 could signal a further decline with support near 385, and again around 372.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After hitting a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market rose steadily, reaching its peak in early October, driven by drier conditions in the US during the later stages of crop development and continued dryness in key soybean-growing regions of South America. During this time, managed funds covered over 80% of their significant short positions, creating the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions worsen, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if conditions improve, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and the market begins to price in any potential South American weather premium.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed the June sales recommendation triggered by the market’s close below 1180, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the current harvest period to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 could provide a good opportunity. For those with storage or capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Nov ’24. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The soybean market turned lower today, erasing yesterday’s gains but still holding above the November contract’s low of 968 ¼ from yesterday. Hedge pressure heading into the weekend, along with sharply lower soybean oil and a bearish reversal in meal, also contributed to the weakness.

  • The USDA’s weekly Export Sales report, released this morning, showed new soybean sales as of October 10 at 62.6 mb (1.703 mmt), with exports totaling 68 mb (1.853 mmt). New sales increased by 35% from the previous week and were 16% above the 4-week average, while exports were up 9% from last week and significantly higher than the 4-week average.

  • The USDA also reported private export sales of 21,000 mt of soybean oil to Mexico for delivery in the 24/25 marketing year, along with 292,800 mt of soybeans sold to unknown destinations, also for 24/25 delivery.

  • Safras & Mercado increased its Brazilian soybean export estimate by 10 mmt to 107 mmt, just above the USDA’s estimate of 105 mmt. The firm also raised its Brazilian crush estimate to 55.5 mmt versus the USDA’s 54 mmt.

Above: The recent downtrend appears to have found support near 980 on the front month chart, and with the market showing signs of being oversold, prices could rebound toward recent highs near 1070. Before that, prices may encounter resistance around 1025. If prices break the 980 support level in the January contract, they could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed sharply lower today, led by the Chicago contract and further pressured by lower Paris milling wheat futures. The weakness was driven by news that Russia’s grain exporting union intends to sell wheat directly to “sovereign buyers.” Member companies of Russia’s grain union account for roughly 80% of the country’s grain exports. This announcement could affect 13 countries and potentially limit US sales to these nations. According to Reuters, “non-Russian winners of international tenders will receive Russian grain only if they have long-term off-take agreements with Russian firms.”

  • US weekly wheat export sales were delayed until this morning due to Monday’s Columbus Day holiday. The USDA reported an increase of 18.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week of 14.4 mb fell below the 14.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. Additionally, sales commitments have reached 461 mb, which is up 17% from last year.

  • In other bearish news, Russia may be dumping additional wheat onto the market to avoid a tax hike on exports, and rains are forecasted for the US HRW wheat growing regions. Furthermore, customs data shows that Chinese wheat imports for September totaled 250,000 mt, down 60% year-over-year for that month. However, year-to-date imports are up 5.5% at 10.74 mmt.

  • The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia, in their monthly report, has increased their estimate of Western Australia’s 2024 wheat production from 9.3 to 9.91 mmt last month. This state is Australia’s largest wheat production region, and recent rains are cited as the reason for the increase. They also stated that production could continue to grow if conditions remain favorable. Aside from this update, wheat production for the entirety of Australia is expected to increase 18% year over year according to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Now estimated at 30.62 mmt, this rise in the estimate is also attributed to favorable rains in both Western Australia and New South Wales.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine, and dryness in the US plains. The nearly 100-cent rally from the August low to October high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While cheaper Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since hitting resistance near 617, December Chicago wheat has stair-stepped lower to the point of testing the 575 – 560 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of sliding toward the major support area between 521 and 514. Though intermediate support may be found around 544. Meanwhile, initial overhead resistance may lie between 595 and 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through early October also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although more competitive Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while also targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts, in case the market turns toward new lows.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The December contract’s break below 592 suggests that prices could decline further toward 561, with initial support likely around the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. On the upside, initial resistance is expected near 592, with stronger resistance around 623.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded up to its 200-day moving average and its highest level since mid-July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 75% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While more competitive export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break below the 100-day moving average suggests that prices could drift further toward the 604 support area, with additional support near the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. If prices turn higher, overhead resistance may be around 632, with stronger resistance near 655.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-17 End of Day: Markets Recover Earlier Losses to Close Mostly Higher Across the Board

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After holding support near the key 400 level (December), the corn market likely benefited from technical buying and short covering due to oversold conditions, closing well off its lows with the December contract leading the rebound.

  • Boosted by bullish turnarounds in both soybean meal and oil, along with bull spreading from the November contract, soybean prices rebounded to close higher after hitting a fresh 2-month low. Bean oil settled just below its highs, rallying 117 points from its daily low with moving average support just beneath the market. Soybean meal also recovered from earlier lows, extending gains from yesterday’s firm close.

  • Like the corn and soybean markets, the wheat complex rebounded from earlier session lows, finding support once again near key moving averages, along with additional support from higher Matif wheat prices.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, US Drought Monitor, and the South American 1-week forecast total precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market into harvest, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally. Until we post new sales targets, if you are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished mixed to slightly higher in the front end of the market as December corn prices saw a small bounce after holding the key 400 support level. Strength in the wheat and soybean markets likely triggered some technical buying and short cover going into the end of the week. So far, going into Friday, December corn is 9 cents lower on the week.

  • The 400 level on Dec corn has seemed to trigger some export demand. The USDA announced large purchases yesterday, and today posted two new export sales. Mexico added 197,180 mt (7.6 mb) and Unknown destinations added 101,000 mt (4.1 mb) in US export sales for the current marketing year.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales totals on Friday morning, delayed a day due to the Columbus Day holiday on Monday. Expectations are for new corn sales to range from 1.2 – 2.2 mmt.  Last week, export sales were 1.222 mmt.

  • Weekly ethanol production rebounded to 1.042 million barrels per day last week, in line with analysts’ expectations. A total of 105 million bushels of corn was used for ethanol production, keeping the pace needed to meet USDA usage targets by the end of the marketing year.

  • Corn harvest will likely continue to move along at a steady pace as weather conditions remain favorable. The addition of new bushels in the pipeline will limit upside price potential in the corn market.

Above: The recent decline in prices from the early October high has been met with support near the psychologically significant 400 area. If this area holds and prices turn higher, the rally may be met with resistance around 415, with more significant resistance towards 428 – 434. Otherwise, a breach of 400 and close below 397 could signal a further decline with support near 385, and again around 372.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After hitting a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market rose steadily, reaching its peak in early October, driven by drier conditions in the US during the later stages of crop development and continued dryness in key soybean-growing regions of South America. During this time, managed funds covered over 80% of their significant short positions, creating the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions worsen, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if conditions improve, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and the market begins to price in any potential South American weather premium.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after trading lower throughout most of the morning. When soybeans began to recover around midday, they were led higher by the November contract while the deferred contracts trailed behind. This narrowed the spread and could be pointing to traders rolling out of their November short positions for later months. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher.

  • On Friday’s CFTC report, funds had reportedly slimmed down their net short position to just 21,000 contracts as of October 8. Since that day, they are estimated to have sold an additional 30,000 contracts which would leave them net short nearly 50,000 contracts at this point. When soybeans reached their lows in August, funds held a net short position of just over 175,000 contracts. If fundamentals continue to be bearish with a strong US harvest and good Brazilian weather, funds have the potential to take prices significantly lower.

  • In China, the soybean harvest in the major producing area of Heihe is nearly finished and is expected to see a bumper harvest. While China has been a buyer of US soybeans recently, this could impact future business to a small degree. China remains reliant on Brazil and then the US for soybean imports.

  • In Brazil, rain has fallen steadily over the past 7 days with more in the upcoming forecast. The central regions which contain the primary soybean producing states had previously been very dry but have gotten over 1 inch in most areas.

Above: The recent downtrend appears to have found support near 980 in the November contract, and with the market showing signs of being oversold, prices could rebound toward recent highs near 1070. Before that, prices may encounter resistance around 1025. If prices break the 980 support level, they could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat reversed from early losses to close mostly higher across all three classes. Once again, Matif wheat futures appeared to lead the US market, gaining another 1.25 to 2.50 euros per metric ton by today’s settlement. The grain complex as a whole also recovered, with higher closes across the board, including soybean products and oats. From a technical standpoint, most of these markets were at or near oversold levels, and wheat in particular bounced off support near the 40 and 50-day moving averages (as it did yesterday).

  • Drought conditions in US wheat-growing regions continue to worsen. According to the USDA, as of October 15, an estimated 52% of winter wheat acres are experiencing drought, up from 47% the previous week. Additionally, drought in spring wheat areas increased from 29% to 32% during the same period. However, rains are forecasted for the US Southern Plains by this weekend, which should help replenish soil moisture in key winter wheat-growing regions.

  • SovEcon reportedly reduced its Russian wheat production forecast to 81.5 mmt, down 1.4 mmt from the previous estimate. If accurate, this would mark the smallest harvest in four years. In related news, Russia will reportedly allow Kazakhstan to transport grain through Russia to other importers, though Russia itself will not permit imports.

  • French soft wheat exports for the 24/25 season have been reduced to 10.025 mmt from 10.100 mmt previously, according to FranceAgriMer. The decline is said to be tied to a 61% drop in sales outside of the EU. Additionally, the estimated stockpiles were reduced from 2.75 to 2.50 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine, and dryness in the US plains. The nearly 100-cent rally from the August low to October high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While cheaper Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through early October also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although more competitive Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while also targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts, in case the market turns toward new lows.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The December contract’s break below 592 suggests that prices could decline further toward 561, with initial support likely around the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. On the upside, initial resistance is expected near 592, with stronger resistance around 623.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded up to its 200-day moving average and its highest level since mid-July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 75% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While more competitive export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break below the 100-day moving average suggests that prices could drift further toward the 604 support area, with additional support near the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. If prices turn higher, overhead resistance may be around 632, with stronger resistance near 655.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-16 End of Day: Soybeans Slip Further as Feed Grains Rebound

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A higher wheat market and two flash sales—one sizable, though anticipated, to Mexico and the other to unknown destinations—lent support to the corn market, which held the key 400 support level and closed higher amid the fast harvest pace.

  • A quick harvest pace and improving planting conditions in Brazil continue to weigh heavily on the soybean market, which has closed lower in eight of the last 10 sessions as funds reestablish short positions. Selling in soybean oil, which also ended the day lower, added to the weakness, while meal consolidated from its recent selloff, and closed firm with minor gains.

  • All three classes of wheat closed with modest gains after holding support above key moving averages, as Matif wheat lent additional support with its higher daily close.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks and the South American 1-week forecast total precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market into harvest, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally. Until we post new sales targets, if you are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market ended its four-day selling streak as prices held the key 400 level in the December futures and back tested resistance during the session. A large export purchase, and a firm wheat market helped support corn futures.

  • The USDA announced two flash sales of corn this morning. Mexico purchased 1.623 mmt (66.9 mb) of corn split between the current and the next marketing year; 1,043 mmt (41.1 mb) for the 24/25 marketing year and 579,120 mt (22.8 mb) for the 25/26 marketing year. In addition, unknown destinations purchased 332,000 mt (13.1 mb) for the 24/25 marketing year. The large Mexico purchase was anticipated as Mexico seasonally makes a large purchase in this window, which limited any price gains.

  • US corn harvest continues to move a long rapidly. On Tuesday’s Crop Progress report, the USDA stated that corn harvest was 47% complete, up 17% from last week and 8% above 5-year average. Harvest pressure and a large crop forecast will continue to limit prices in the corn market.

  • Brazil Ag Agency, CONAB, released its forecast for the 24/25 corn crop on Tuesday. CONAB expects corn production to increase to 119.74 mmt, up 4 mmt (3.5%) from last year’s totals despite a slightly lower planted area forecast.

Above: The recent decline in prices from the early October high has been met with support near the psychologically significant 400 area. If this area holds and prices turn higher, the rally may be met with resistance around 415, with more significant resistance towards 428 – 434. Otherwise, a breach of 400 and close below 397 could signal a further decline with support near 385, and again around 372.

Above: Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After hitting a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market rose steadily, reaching its peak in early October, driven by drier conditions in the US during the later stages of crop development and continued dryness in key soybean-growing regions of South America. During this time, managed funds covered over 80% of their significant short positions, creating the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions worsen, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if conditions improve, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and the market begins to price in any potential South American weather premium.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the fifth consecutive day as funds continue to pressure markets as a result of improved South American weather. Both the November and January contracts are now below $10.00 and are technically oversold. November soybeans have lost over 85 cents from their high at the beginning of the month. Soybean meal ended the day slightly higher while soybean oil was lower.

  • This morning, the USDA reported a private export sale of 175,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. While this followed yesterday’s flash sale to China of 131,000 metric tons, it has not been enough to support futures.

  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed that the soybean crop is now 67% harvested. This was ahead of the average trade guess of 64%. The harvested number is also above last year’s pace of 57% and the 5-year average of 51%. Dry weather has enabled producers to accelerate harvest.

  • In Brazil, rain has fallen steadily over the past 7 days with more in the upcoming forecast. The central regions which contain the primary soybean producing states had previously been very dry but have gotten over 1 inch in most areas.

Above: The recent downtrend appears to have found support near 980 in the November contract, and with the market showing signs of being oversold, prices could rebound toward recent highs near 1070. Before that, prices may encounter resistance around 1025. If prices break the 980 support level, they could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Above: Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat gained roughly 3–5 cents across all three US classes today. As has been the case recently, US wheat may have followed Matif contracts, which rose 0.50 to 1.50 euros per mt in today’s session. The rally could also be attributed to a bounce off technical support levels, as December contracts in all three classes tested support near their 40 and 50-day moving averages before recovering.

  • As of October 13, 64% of the US winter wheat crop is planted, according to the USDA. This is slightly behind last year’s pace of 65% and the 5-year average of 66%. Additionally, 35% of the crop has emerged, also trailing last year’s 36% and the average pace of 38%.

  • Russia’s grain exporters union has set a consensus indicator price of $240 per mt FOB for wheat exports in October, increasing to $245 in November and $250 in December. In theory, exporters should not sell below these levels, but it remains unclear whether they will adhere to these restrictions.

  • The European Commission reports that EU soft wheat exports are down 29% year over year. Since the season began on July 1, exports have reached 6.64 mmt, compared to 9.3 mmt during the same period last year. Nigeria, the top importer, took 991,000 mt, followed by other North African countries, including Egypt and Morocco.

  • The Indian government, through its farm ministry, has raised the minimum purchase price for domestic wheat for the 24/25 season to 2,425 rupees per 100 kg, up from 2,275 rupees last year. The reported cost of production is 1,182 rupees. The minimum prices for other crops, including rapeseed, lentils, and barley, have also been increased.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine, and dryness in the US plains. The nearly 100-cent rally from the August low to October high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While cheaper Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through early October also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although more competitive Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while also targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts, in case the market turns toward new lows.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The December contract’s break below 592 suggests that prices could decline further toward 561, with initial support likely around the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. On the upside, initial resistance is expected near 592, with stronger resistance around 623.

Above: Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded up to its 200-day moving average and its highest level since mid-July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 75% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While more competitive export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break below the 200-day moving average suggests that prices could drift further toward the 604 support area, with additional support near the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. If prices turn higher, overhead resistance may be around 632, with stronger resistance near 655.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-15 End of Day: Grains Continue Their Slide, Closing Lower Across the Board

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Harvest pressure and sharply lower crude oil weighed on the corn market throughout the session, pushing the December contract to its lowest close since late August.

  • A flash sale to China, solid weekly export inspections, and much higher than expected NOPA crush numbers helped November soybeans curb some of its losses and close 10 cents off its low. Soybean oil found support near the 50-day moving average to close higher on the day, while meal settled lower after resuming its downtrend.  

  • Despite a flash sale of 120,000 mt of wheat and export inspections running 33% ahead of last year, the wheat complex closed lower across the board for the third consecutive day, pressured by sharp losses in crude oil and a third day of declines in Matif wheat.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks and the South American 1-week forecast total precipitation as a percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market into harvest, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally. Until we post new sales targets, if you are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures fell to the lowest price levels since September 23 during Tuesday’s session, as strong selling in the crude oil market and ongoing harvest pressure weighed on corn prices. With today’s close, December corn is now trading 33 cents off the October 1 high of 434.

  • The crude oil market traded over 5% lower during the session as global demand concerns and easing tension between Iran and Israel pushed sellers into the market. The sharp break in crude prices limited commodity gains in general on Tuesday.

  • Weekly corn export inspections were below market expectations. Last week, the US shipped 16.9 mb (430,000 mt) of corn. This total was less than half of the previous week’s total as exporters are likely shifting to shipping fresh soybean supplies. Current corn inspections are up 19% year over year and running above the pace needed to hit the USDA targets.

  • The weather forecast continues to stay favorable for corn harvest. With strong yields overall, the market is seeing selling pressure as fresh supplies enter the pipeline. Corn harvest was 34% complete last week, and the market is anticipating a good jump on the harvest percentage in today’s USDA Crop Progress report.

Above: Since the beginning of October, the near-term trend has been down. Initial support may come in near 410, with further support near the 50-day moving average and again around 397-400. On the top side, initial resistance may come in near 428, with heavier resistance near the recent high of 434 ¼.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After hitting a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market rose steadily, reaching its peak in early October, driven by drier conditions in the US during the later stages of crop development and continued dryness in key soybean-growing regions of South America. During this time, managed funds covered over 80% of their significant short positions, creating the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions worsen, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if conditions improve, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and the market begins to price in any potential South American weather premium.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower but were bull spread with the front months down less than the deferred contracts. Soybeans had bullish fundamental news like a flash sale, strong export inspections, and strong NOPA crush numbers. Soybean meal ended the day lower, while soybean oil was higher despite sharply lower crude oil.

  • Today’s NOPA crush report showed US soybean crush up significantly to 177.320 million bushels for September, which compared to the average trade estimate of 170 mb. This was up 12.2% from the 158 mb in August. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.066 billion pounds and are the lowest they have been since November 2014.

  • This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 131,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.

  • Today’s export inspections report showed soybeans inspected for export totaled 57.9 mb for the week ending October 10. This was at the higher end of analyst estimates and puts total inspections for the 24/25 marketing year at 189 mb, which is down 7% from the previous year.

Above: The recent downtrend appears to have found support near 1080 in the November contract, and with the market showing signs of being oversold, prices could rebound toward recent highs near 1070. Before that, prices may encounter resistance around 1025. If prices break the 980 support level, they could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed the session with modest losses, finishing near daily lows across all three futures classes. Paris milling wheat futures declined for the third consecutive day, adding pressure. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, though nearly unchanged at the time of writing, strengthened throughout the session after finding support around the 103 level. The index is now above its 100-day moving average for the second straight day, a level it had not surpassed since July 11, 2023.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections of 13.6 mb bring total 24/25 inspections to 330 mb, up 33% from last year. Additionally, the USDA estimates wheat exports at 825 mb (unchanged from the last WASDE report), which would be a 17% increase from the previous year.

  • Crude oil experienced another sharp drop today, at one point falling more than four dollars per barrel. This appears to be tied to news that Israel does not intend to target Iranian oil facilities as previously expected. Furthermore, both OPEC and the International Energy Agency reduced their global oil demand estimates. The downturn in crude likely added pressure to the grain complex, and if the trend continues, it could also limit upward grain price movement in the event of a recovery.

  • On a bullish note, the USDA announced a flash sale this morning, reporting that private exporters sold 120,000 mt of soft red winter wheat to Mexico for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year. In other news, Jordan reportedly passed on its tender for 120,000 mt of wheat.

  • CONAB estimates Brazil’s 24/25 wheat production at 8.26 mmt, unchanged from last month and below the USDA’s estimate of 9 mmt. Additionally, recent rains in Argentina’s wheat-growing areas have helped improve conditions, though at this point it may be too little, too late. Last week, the Rosario Grains Exchange lowered its Argentina wheat harvest estimate to 19.5 mmt due to a lack of precipitation.

  • According to the French agriculture ministry, the soft wheat harvest estimate has been reduced from 25.8 to 25.4 mmt. If accurate, this would represent a 27.6% decline from last season’s production. Additionally, barley production is expected to fall, though the corn production estimate has been raised slightly from last month.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine, and dryness in the US plains. The nearly 100-cent rally from the August low to October high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While cheaper Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through early October also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although more competitive Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while also targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts, in case the market turns toward new lows.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The December contract’s break below 592 suggests that prices could decline further toward 561, with initial support likely around the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. On the upside, initial resistance is expected near 592, with stronger resistance around 623.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded up to its 200-day moving average and its highest level since mid-July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 75% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While more competitive export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break below the 200-day moving average suggests that prices could drift further toward the 604 support area, with additional support near the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. If prices turn higher, overhead resistance may be around 632, with stronger resistance near 655.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil, N. Argentina 1 week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 1 week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-14 End of Day: Grains Continue Friday’s Slide Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Sellers maintained control in the corn market to start the week, encouraged by sharp losses in the wheat market and clear weather conditions to maintain a healthy harvest pace.

  • Sharply lower soybean oil prices and an improved South American weather outlook weighed heavily on the soybean market, which closed at the bottom of the day’s 13-cent range in the November contract. Soybean meal on the other hand settled mid-range and near unchanged following a day of choppy two-sided trade.

  • A lack of fresh supportive news, combined with weakness across the commodity sector—including Matif wheat and crude oil—along with a firm US dollar, weighed heavily on the wheat complex, which closed with double-digit losses, just off their respective lows for all three US classes.

  • To see the updated US 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation outlooks as well as the South American 1 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed, US demand has picked up, and South American weather has been dry. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop could limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers have found value at these multi-year low price levels. Now that managed funds have covered a significant portion of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or continued South American dryness could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields are strong and South American weather turns more seasonal, prices could be at risk of retreating from recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • With little fresh news to push prices higher, the corn market began the week with sellers in control, led by weakness in the wheat market, and good harvest weather that helps keep harvest pressure in place.   

  • FranceAgriMer data indicated that the French corn harvest is only 6% complete as of October 7, due to wet conditions. This is the slowest pace in 11 years and compares to 50% completed last year.

  • Crop analyst APK-Inform, lowered its corn export forecast for Ukraine by 11%, dropping it from 22.5 million metric tons to 20 mmt, largely due to lower production.

  • With the US currently being the cheapest source of corn on the global market, production and export losses in regions like Ukraine and France could shift some demand to the US, potentially supporting US corn prices.

  • Harvest will likely stay at a strong pace this week as midwestern weather forecasts remain mostly dry. Harvest was 30% complete last week, but that is expected to jump as producers are finishing soybean harvest and move over to corn. Hedging pressure will likely limit prices in the corn market. The USDA will release its updated crop progress report Tuesday afternoon with government offices closed for the Columbus Day holiday.

Above: Since the beginning of October, the near-term trend has been down. Initial support may come in near 410, with further support near the 50-day moving average and again around 397-400. On the top side, initial resistance may come in near 428, with heavier resistance near the recent high of 434 ¼.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 43,970 contracts between October 1 – 8, bringing their total position to a net short 23,729 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans continued with the momentum from Friday’s WASDE report and closed lower today with the November contract closing below 1000 for the first time in one month. Pressure has come from the ongoing US harvest and improved South American weather that is allowing planting to move at a better pace. Soybean meal closed higher today while soybean oil fell sharply.

  • In Brazil, the 15-day forecast shows strong probabilities of rain totaling over 2 inches in the central regions, including Mato Grosso, the largest producing state and one of the driest until recent rainfall. Friday’s WASDE report kept Brazilian soybean production unchanged at 169 mmt.

  • Since Brazil was previously too dry to begin planting, they are now behind at only 9.3% complete which compares to the pace of 17.4% at this time last year. If growing conditions remain favorable in South America following the US harvest, funds could be in a position to aggressively sell soybeans again now that they have pared down their net short position.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds bought 13,088 contracts of soybeans, leaving them net short 21,798 contracts. Over the past three days, funds are estimated to have sold an additional 11,000 contracts and likely have sold more today.

Above: The break below 1030 support puts the market at risk of trading lower and testing support between the 50-day moving average and 995. Should this area hold, and prices turn back higher, overhead resistance remains near 1070 and the 100-day moving average.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 13,088 contracts between October 1 – 8, bringing their total position to a net short 21,798 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed the session with double-digit losses across all three US classes. Pressure came from a lower close for Matif wheat, weakness in corn and soybeans, a lack of fresh supportive news, and a rise in the US Dollar Index. Additionally, OPEC reportedly lowered its global crude oil usage estimate for 2024 and 2025. This marks the third reduction in as many months and may have added pressure to the grain complex.

  • From a technical perspective, December Chicago wheat closed below the 21-day moving average (587 ¾) for the first time since the end of August. Breaking this support level may trigger further liquidation, with the next support around 572, right between the 40- and 50-day moving averages.

  • Over the weekend, reports emerged of a new Russian missile attack on Ukraine. Two civilian vessels and a grain storage facility were damaged in the Odessa area, resulting in at least one death and several injuries. Despite this, the market showed little concern, as indicated by wheat’s lower close.

  • SovEcon reported that Russia shipped 1.1 mmt of grain last week, with wheat making up 1 mmt of that total. Additionally, IKAR noted that Russia’s wheat export price closed at $230 per metric ton FOB, up $7 from the previous week. In related news, Russia’s agriculture ministry announced a new minimum price floor for wheat exports, set at $250 per metric ton.

  • Industry analyst APK-Inform has reportedly decreased their estimate of Ukraine’s 24/25 grain exports from 39.1 to 37.2 mmt. However, this pertains mostly to expected declines in the corn harvest. They actually raised the 2024 wheat harvest production to 21.5 mmt, compared to 21.2 mmt previously. Furthermore, they increased their estimate of wheat exports from 13.8 to 14.4 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,496 contracts between October 1 – 8, bringing their total position to a net short 29,449 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through September also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although low Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while also targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts, in case the market turns toward new lows.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December KC wheat has been consolidating between the recent high of 623 and 592 down below. A close above 623 could set the market up to test the 50% retracement level of 637 back toward the May high. Whereas a close below 592 could put the market at risk of retreating further, with support coming in near 581, and again between 571 and 561.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, October 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 9,386 contracts between October 1 – 8, bringing their total position to a net short 5,884 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent breakout was met with resistance just below the 200-day moving average, a close above which could put the market on track to run towards 685. Below the market, initial support remains near the 100-day ma, with further support near 604.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 6,093 contracts between October 1 – 8, bringing their total position to a net short 7,661 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-11 End of Day: Grains Lower on Friday after USDA WASDE Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures fell lower on Friday after the USDA increased the US corn yield slightly to come in at 183.8, a slight yield cut was expected by the trade going into the report. Corn ending stocks came in just below the psychological 2-billion-bushel level but above pre-report estimates.

  • Following a neutral WASDE report, soybean futures slipped lower to end the week. US soybean ending stocks were left unchanged from last month’s estimate but better rain chances in Brazil applied pressure to the soybean market throughout the week.

  • US weather is forecast to remain mostly favorable to continued strong harvest progress over the next week with above normal temperatures and normal to below normal chances for precipitation.

  • After a strong week, wheat futures pulled back on Friday after a mostly neutral USDA WASDE report. Weakness in corn and soybean futures as well as an unexpected increase in World wheat ending stocks pressured wheat to end the week.

  • To see the updated US 7-day moisture outlook as well as the Brazil and northern Argentina 2 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed, US demand has picked up, and South American weather has been dry. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop could limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers have found value at these multi-year low price levels. Now that managed funds have covered a significant portion of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or continued South American dryness could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields are strong and South American weather turns more seasonal, prices could be at risk of retreating from recent highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A higher-than-expected corn yield and ending stocks total on Friday’s USDA report limited corn futures on the session. For the week, Dec corn futures lost 9 cents as the market will now stay focused on harvest progress and the South American weather forecast in the weeks ahead.

  • The USDA Crop Production report showed a slight increase in corn yield for this fall to 183.8 Bu/A, up 0.2 of a bushel from last month. Most of the strength in the yield came from the central and western corn belt, offsetting the dry conditions in the eastern corn belt. This put total production at 15.203 billion bushels, up slightly from last month

  • On the demand side of the table, the USDA raise 2024-25 corn exports by 25 mb from their September forecast. The combination of yield and higher demand, and the lower-than-expected grain stock lowered carryout to 1.999 billion bushels. This was 37 mb above the market expectation and weighed on prices.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn overnight. Unknown destinations purchased 577,928 MT (22.8 mb) of corn for the current marketing year. Expectations this was a sale to Mexico, who typically steps into the U.S. corn market more heavily during the harvest window to secure supplies.

  • Harvest will likely stay at a strong pace through the weekend as midwestern weather forecasts remain dry into next week. Harvest was 30% complete last week, but that is expected to jump as producers are finishing soybean harvest and move over to corn. Hedging pressure will likely limit prices in the corn market.

Above: The recent close above the 200-day moving average was met with resistance near 434 and prices retreated. Support below the market could come in between 420 and 416, near the 100-day ma. Below there, further support could be found between 410 and 400.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • With the exception of the November contract, soybeans posted double-digit losses for the session. Today’s WASDE report was relatively neutral for beans, so after the data was released, the market may have gone back to trading South American weather. The forecast continues to show better chances for rain in some of the dry central areas of Brazil next week. However, the USDA did leave both Argentina and Brazil production unchanged at 48.1 and 153 mmt respectively.

  • On today’s report, the USDA lowered the soybean yield just slightly, from 53.2 to 52.1 bpa. Production also dropped a bit, from 4.586 bb to 4.582 bb. Harvested acreage was kept unchanged at 86.3 million and US 24/25 ending stocks were also in line with last month at 550 mb. As far as global numbers are concerned, the 23/24 carryout increased from 112.3 mmt to 112.4 mmt while 24/25 ending stocks were also bumped slightly from 134.6 mmt to 134.7 mmt.

  • Though crude oil attempted to rally back to positive territory earlier in the session, as of writing crude futures are about 20 to 40 cents lower per barrel. The initial comeback off the session low was supportive to bean oil and the grain complex, but if it continues to fade lower it may offer resistance instead.

  • USDA announced another flash sale of soybean before the day session on Friday. Unknown destinations purchased 132,000 MT (4.85 mb) for the 2024-25 marketing year. Soybean export demand for the marketing year has started at a good pace. This was the 13th published soybean sale since the marketing year began on September 1.

Above: The break below 1030 support puts the market at risk of trading lower and testing support between the 50-day moving average and 995. Should this area hold, and prices turn back higher, overhead resistance remains near 1070 and the 100-day moving average.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted modest losses in all three US futures classes, alongside a lower close for Matif wheat futures. US wheat has been a follower of Paris milling wheat, so this may account for some of today’s weakness, especially given the fact that the WASDE report was mostly neutral. And despite the lower close today, further tensions in the Black Sea region may continue to offer support to the complex.

  • On today’s report US 24/25 wheat carryout came in at 812 mb, down from the average trade guess of 821 mb and the September figure of 828 mb. In addition, global 23/24 wheat carryout was pegged at 266.2 mmt, compared with 265.3 mmt last month. For 24/25 world wheat ending stocks were estimated at 257.7 mmt versus 257.2 mmt in September.

  • In addition to the above data, US wheat exports were kept unchanged today at 825 mb. Harvested acreage was increased from 37.9 to 38.5 million. Globally, Russian wheat production declined 1 mmt from the September estimate to 82 mmt, but Ukraine production slightly increased from 22.3 mmt to 22.9 mmt. Production estimates for Argentina and Australia were unchanged at 18 mmt and 32 mmt respectively.

  • Today traders also received PPI data, which indicated that producer prices were unchanged compared to last month, while most were looking for a 0.1% increase. This has the US Dollar Index down slightly; if it now begins to trend lower, that would be supportive to wheat prices.

  • SovEcon also released an estimate of Russian wheat production this morning. They now project it at 81.5 mmt, which is down 1.4 mmt from their last estimate. As stated above, the USDA is now at 82 mmt. In addition to this, the Russian ag minister was said to have met with major grain exporting companies today, likely to discuss an export quota. Their ag ministry did reveal a 41% increase to their wheat export tax, now at 1,872 Rubles per mt. This may be in an effort to slow down their grain export sales.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through September also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although low Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while also targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts, in case the market turns toward new lows.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December KC wheat has been consolidating between the recent high of 623 and 592 down below. A close above 623 could set the market up to test the 50% retracement level of 637 back toward the May high. Whereas a close below 592 could put the market at risk of retreating further, with support coming in near 581, and again between 571 and 561.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent breakout was met with resistance just below the 200-day moving average, a close above which could put the market on track to run towards 685. Below the market, initial support remains near the 100-day ma, with further support near 604.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil and N. Argentina 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.