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12-31 End of Day: Grains Trade Higher Going into The New Year

FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING, HAVE A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 31: The CME has regular trading hours, and Total Farm Marketing offices will close at 3:00 p.m. (CT).

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 1: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn markets gained strength to close out 2024, with light trading volume and buying momentum in the soybean market helping to drive corn higher.
  • Soybeans closed higher to end the final trading day of 2024, supported by a drier forecast for Argentina, gains in soybean meal and oil, and some fund profit-taking.
  • Wheat pushed higher into the close, supported by stronger corn prices and rising soybeans. Matif wheat also finished strong today.
  • To see the updated US and South American precipitation forecast, and GRACE-based Drought Indicators, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop.
  • The March 2024 contract has rallied 30 cents from the Thanksgiving low and has recently traded to its highest level since late June. Looking back even farther, corn is roughly 23% higher than the August low when looking at the continuous corn chart. While strong demand has been a main driver of this rally, we are starting to see corn demand slowing at these higher prices. Therefore, Grain Market Insider sees this as an advantageous area to reward this rally by selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.
  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Grain markets saw additional buying strength to close out 2024, with corn futures benefiting from light trading volume and buying momentum in the soybean market, posting moderate gains. However, the March corn futures closed 56 cents lower compared to the end of 2023.
  • The buying strength on Tuesday pushed the corn market past Monday’s potential bearish reversal, trading above Monday’s high. March corn closed Tuesday at its highest price level since June 26.
  • Managed money is still growing a net long position in the corn market. As of December 24, managed funds were net long 160,947 contracts, adding 1,532 net long positions from the previous week. Analysts estimated that fund length may be closer to 200,000 long contracts given the recent corn market strength as a favorable demand tone has supported the corn market.
  • The corn market is likely to start focusing on next Friday’s USDA WASDE report and Quarterly Grain Stocks report, scheduled for release on January 10. Money flow could remain positive, supporting the market amid expectations that strong demand may tighten corn stockpiles for the seventh consecutive month, as current corn ending stocks are nearly 400 mb lower than last year’s totals.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, December 24th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 1,532 contracts between December 17 – 24, bringing their total position to a net long 160,947 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed sharply higher to wrap up the final trading day of 2024, supported by a drier 10-day forecast for Argentina, gains in soybean meal and oil, and likely some fund profit-taking. Crude oil also ended the day higher, which may have provided additional support to soybean oil.
  • The USDA attaché in Brazil is now estimating the 24/25 crop in the country at 165 mmt. Planted acreage grew from last year, and crop estimates have continued to grow as the season continues. Brazilian weather forecasts remain favorable while Argentina may see a stretch of drier weather coming up.
  • Yesterday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 8,369 contracts of soybeans as of December 24. This reduced their net short position to 67,883 contracts. With funds currently holding a large net long position in corn but a short position in soybeans, there may be room for funds to continue buying back contracts.
  • In Indonesia, the government is planning on raising the biofuel blending requirement to 40% next year. This could cause fuel retailers and palm oil suppliers to face higher costs. The increase in demand for palm oil could be supported to soybean oil.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, December 24. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 8,369 contracts between December 17 – 24, bringing their total position to a net short 67,883. contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat managed to grind higher into the close, supported by stronger corn and sharply higher soybeans. Matif wheat also saw a strong close, with the front-month March contract finishing above its 200-day moving average for the first time since October. However, a higher US Dollar Index may have capped the upside for wheat today.
  • A ‘polar vortex’ is expected to move into the US this week, potentially bringing below-freezing temperatures. This cold snap could affect southern wheat areas, where there is little to no snow cover. The risk of frost and freeze damage could be bullish for the market.
  • According to CONAB, Brazil’s 2024 wheat planted area is approximately 12% smaller than the previous year, totaling 3.061 million hectares. However, production is expected to rise by 13% compared to the last crop, with the 2024 harvest estimated at 8.064 mmt, a slight decrease of just 0.4% from 2023.
  • According to the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report, managed funds sold approximately 7,600 contracts of Chicago wheat and 1,900 contracts of Kansas City wheat. They were net buyers of a small amount of Minneapolis futures. However, the total short position in wheat, at nearly 157,000 contracts, is the largest in eight months.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. With harvest underway in the southern hemisphere and winter wheat into dormancy in the northern hemisphere, this can historically be a slow time of the year for the wheat market.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, December 24th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,869 contracts between December 17-24, bringing their total position to a net short 34,936 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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12-30 End of Day: Corn Reverses From Overnight Highs, Wheat and Soybeans End Higher

FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING, HAVE A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 31: The CME has regular trading hours, and Total Farm Marketing offices will close at 3:00 p.m. (CT).

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 1: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures ran into selling pressure Monday after a strong Sunday night session. After six consecutive sessions of higher prices corn ended the day lower.
  • Soybean futures ended Monday higher after running into resistance near the $10 level. Soybean meal and soybean oil both ended the session higher as well.
  • In a quiet session, the winter wheats ended higher while spring wheat futures posted fractional losses. Midday weakness in corn futures added some outside pressure to wheat.
  • To see the US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, as well as the 7-day ECMWF precipitation forecast for South America, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.
  • The March 2024 contract has rallied 30 cents from the Thanksgiving low and has recently traded to its highest level since late June. Looking back even farther, corn is roughly 23% higher than the August low when looking at the continuous corn chart. While strong demand has been a main driver of this rally, we are starting to see corn demand slowing at these higher prices. Therefore, Grain Market Insider sees this as an advantageous area to reward this rally by selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.
  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices reversed early-session gains, posting a technical chart reversal that could trigger further selling ahead of the year’s final trading session.
  • Hedge funds hold a large net long position in corn, but year-end position squaring may add pressure. The latest Commitment of Traders report is due Monday afternoon.
  • The USDA released weekly corn inspections on Monday morning. Last week, exporters moved 878,000 Mt (34.6 mb), down from 1.15 MMT last week. Total Export inspections are running 29% ahead of last year and well above the pace to reach USDA targets for the marketing year.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its Argentina corn planting estimate to 6.6 million hectares (16.3 million acres), from 6.3 million previously citing better profitability for corn compared to soybeans.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after volatile trade which saw prices significantly higher to start the day before fading into negative territory. While the close was higher, March futures may have met some resistance at the 50-day moving average and $10.00 mark. Both soybean meal and oil were higher as well.
  • Today’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections totaling 57.7 million bushels for the week ending December 26. This was within the range of trade estimates and put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.051 bb, which is up 31% from the previous year.
  • The USDA attaché in Brazil is now estimating the 24/25 crop in the country at 165 mmt. Planted acreage grew from last year, and crop estimates have continued to grow as the season continues. Brazilian weather forecasts remain favorable while Argentina may see a stretch of drier weather coming up.
  • CONAB has said that Brazil’s soybean exports are likely to reach 105.5 mmt in the 24/25 season which would be an improvement from the previous season where export totaled 96.8 mmt as a result of lower production.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed the session relatively quietly, with small gains in Chicago and Kansas City, but small losses in Minneapolis. World demand is providing some support, with reports of large purchases by Algeria and Egypt. But technical selling at midday led to prices fading into the end of the session.
  • Weekly wheat inspections at 12.4 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections to 451 mb, which is up 27% from the year prior. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace, with exports estimated at 850 mb, up 20% from last year.
  • Rumors of Egypt purchasing 1.27 mmt of wheat offered early support to the market, despite anticipation that the majority would be sourced from Russia.
  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat harvest is 89% complete as of December 27. This is up from 76% the week prior. Additionally, they left their production estimate unchanged at 18.6 mmt, which remains above the USDA at 17.5 mmt.
  • As reported by IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $237 per mt, which is up $3 from the week before. Furthermore, the Russian agriculture ministry lowered the wheat export tax to 4,346 Rubles per mt through January 14; this represents a 9% decline from the previous figure.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. With harvest underway in the southern hemisphere and winter wheat into dormancy in the northern hemisphere, this can historically be a slow time of the year for the wheat market.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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12-27 End of Day: Corn & Wheat Edge Higher Friday

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures edged slightly higher on Friday, building on Thursday’s breakout above resistance. Strong export sales drove a fourth consecutive week of gains.
  • Soybeans ended the day lower on somewhat disappointing export sales but closed higher on the week. Soybean meal and soybean oil futures were higher on the week as they attempt to rebound from their recent lows.
  • Wheat futures ended the week on a positive note, with Chicago leading the gains. Despite this, wheat remains in a tight trading range as the year draws to a close.
  • To see the US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center and the Brazil and Argentina week two forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you did not act on the prior sales recommendations and/or need to move bushels for cash flow, Grain Market Insider issued a catch-up recommendation on December 11 near the 450 area (Mar ‘25).
  • Over the past three months, the corn market has repeatedly tested resistance near current levels. With post-harvest basis improvements, cash corn prices in many areas are now nearing their highest levels since June. Target the 455 to 460 versus March ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.
  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market ended the week with a quiet session and mixed trade. Strong export sales and demand supported the front end of the market, helping the March contract close 7-3/4 cents higher for the week, marking the fourth consecutive week of gains.
  • On Friday, the March contract traded within a very tight range of 2-3/4 cents, from high to low. Prices are now testing strong overhead resistance, with the narrow range potentially signaling a slowdown in upward momentum.
  • Weekly corn export sales were supportive as U.S. exporters reported new sales of 1.711 MMT (67.4 mb), just slightly above expectations. Total sales are still trending 29% higher than last year and ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA export targets. Mexico was the largest buyer of corn for the week.
  • While futures prices have rallied, in some regions of the corn belt, the cash market has absorbed the gains as basis levels have widened to balance the market as producers have been active in selling bushels.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower, giving back a portion of yesterday’s gains and were mainly driven lower due to a disappointing export sales report. While soybean meal was the leader yesterday, it ended lower today while soybean oil was slightly higher.
  • Today’s export sales report saw an increase of 35.9 million bushels of soybean export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 4.6 mb for 25/26. This was a marketing year low and was down 31% from the previous week and 47% from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 57.8 mb were above the 24.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates, and primary destinations were to China, Spain, and Egypt.
  • CONAB has said that Brazil’s soybean exports are likely to reach 105.5 mmt in the 24/25 season which would be an improvement from the previous season where export totaled 96.8 mmt as a result of lower production.
  • January soybean options expired at the end of the session on Friday. The market pinned open 980 calls and puts on the closed as prices seemed to move to cover the open interest at that strike level. The open on Sunday night could bring some volatility as the market handles those possibly exercised options.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed higher across all classes, supported by a weaker U.S. Dollar Index, stronger Matif wheat futures, and bullish technical indicators.
  • The USDA reported an increase of 22.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 as well as an increase of 0.5 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 13.8 mb fell below the 18.0 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 850 mb. Sales commitments have reached 616 mb, which is up 11% from last year.
  • China has reportedly increased financial support for farmers, with lower interest rates and expanding loan ability. Additionally, their government is said to have promised more support for ag research projects. All of this is aimed at national food security and less reliance on grain imports.
  • Turkey’s 2024 wheat output fell 5.5% to 20.8 mmt, likely increasing import needs. Reduced Russian production may open opportunities for U.S. exports.
  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat crop is 64% harvested. Furthermore, the crop remains in very good condition overall; 86% of the crop is rated normal to excellent, compared with 58% a year ago.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of your remaining open July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 93 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 16% from its October high of 656.25, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 Chicago Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.
  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Brazil and Argentina week two forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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12-26 End of Day: Markets Close Higher Following the Holiday

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn finished the day with moderate gains supported by strong rally in soybean and soybean meal markets.
  • Higher soybean meal and low volume trade following the Christmas holiday lead gains in the soybean market.  
  • It was a solid day of gains in all three US wheat classes driven by the sharply higher soybean futures. The day of gains is also likely due to a drier than anticipated 10-day weather outlook in Argentina.
  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor as well as the South American GRACE-Based Root Zone Soil Moisture Drought Indicator courtesy of NASA, University of Nebraska-Lincoln scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you did not act on the prior sales recommendations and/or need to move bushels for cash flow, Grain Market Insider issued a catch-up recommendation on December 11 near the 450 area (Mar ‘25).
  • Over the past three months, the corn market has repeatedly tested resistance just above current levels. With post-harvest basis improvements, cash corn prices in many areas are now nearing their highest levels since June. Target the 455 to 460 versus March ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.
  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong buying moved into the grain markets on Thursday, fueled by a strong rally in soybean and soybean meal markets. That buying strength supported the corn market as futures finished with moderate gains. March corn posted its highest daily close since June 27.
  • Drier than normal forecasts for Argentina have triggered short covering in the soybean and meal markets, adding some weather premium into the market. Corn futures are watching Argentina weather as well as the Argentina corn crop is finishing planting and could be limited with a drier forecast.
  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Friday morning. Expectations for new sales to range from 1.0 MMT –1.6 MMT for the week ending Dec 19. Last week, export sales were 1.17 MMT as the pace remains strong.
  • The demand in the corn market will be a key driver in price. Export demand and ethanol usage are still ahead of USDA pace, and U.S. corn is still the largest player in the corn export market through spring with limited global export supplies.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly higher following the Christmas holiday and were driven by sharply higher soybean meal and low volume trade. March soybeans have now rallied 50 cents from their contract low on December 19. Soybean oil closed lower today.
  • There was little news and less volume for soybeans to trade today, but the dominating factor seemed to be the new slightly drier forecast for Argentina over the next 10 days. This is not likely to affect production much but could be temporarily supporting meal prices.
  • CONAB has reported that Brazil is expected to export 105.5 mmt of soybeans in the 24/25 season. Through November of this year, the country’s soybean exports total 96.8 mmt, which is down 46% from the previous period.
  • Funds hold a large net short position in soybeans and may be buying a portion back before the end of the year. Additionally, soybeans have been closely following moves in the Brazilian real which was higher today and therefore supportive.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat classes saw solid gains today, driven primarily by spillover support from sharply higher soybean futures. This itself was likely due to a gap higher in meal after Argentina’s 10-day weather outlook turned drier. Additionally, lighter trade volume surrounding the holidays may be leading to increased volatility.
  • The US Dollar Index continued to consolidate today but remains at an elevated level. If it sets back, that may give wheat some room to rally. But from a technical perspective, it is forming a bullish pennant chart formation. If this pattern is accurate, it could mean that the Dollar is due for a breakout to the upside, which would likely lead to weakness in the wheat market.
  • Data out of Russia indicates that their 2024 wheat crop reached 82 mmt. It was also said that frost damage in the spring and drought in the summer led to a 30% decline in production for Russia’s largest growing area. Finally, their government is estimating 25/26 wheat exports at 36.4 mmt, compared to the USDA estimate of 47 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of your remaining open July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 93 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 16% from its October high of 656.25, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 Chicago Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.
  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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12-23 End of Day: Markets Close Mixed as the Shortened Holiday Week Kicks Off

MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 24: The CME closes at 12:15 p.m. (CT), and Total Farm Marketing offices close at 1:00 p.m. (CT). There will be no End of Day Grain Market Insider

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 25: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After a day of quiet back-and-forth trade within a tight 3-cent range, the corn market settled mixed. The front months closed higher, supported by additional demand, while new-crop contracts settled fractionally weaker.
  • Bear spreading and weakness in the meal market, driven by a forecast of rain in Central Argentina, pushed soybeans lower. The front months closed near session lows, while new-crop contracts settled mid-range and fractionally lower.
  • Despite a drop in the US dollar, the wheat complex posted gains across all three classes, supported by reports of a cap on Russian wheat exports and sharply higher Matif wheat prices.
  • To see the updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you did not act on the prior sales recommendations and/or need to move bushels for cash flow, Grain Market Insider issued a catch-up recommendation on December 11, with the next catch-up target at 455 (Mar ‘25).
  • If you have followed all prior sales recommendations and are comfortable with cash flow until spring, Grain Market Insider advises holding steady for now.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.
  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market ended the day mixed after a session of quiet, two-sided trade within a tight 3-cent range. The nearby March contract closed just off the day’s high, supported by solid demand, while Dec ’25 finished mid-range and fractionally lower.
  • This morning, the USDA announced private export sales of 132,000 tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
  • Export inspections for corn for the week ending December 19 came in at the upper end of expectations at 1.122 million metric tons. While inspections were lower than the same week last year, total inspections remain 27% higher season-to-date.
  • With a shortened holiday week and year-end quickly approaching, trade could remain choppy on light volume as traders hesitate to extend their risk, opting instead to square positions ahead of year-end to protect profits.
  • Grain markets are scheduled to close at 12:05 PM CST on Tuesday and remain closed until 8:30 AM Thursday for the Christmas holiday.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, December 17. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 6,475 contracts between December 11 – 17, bringing their total position to a net long 165,890 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower, with the front months leading the decline due to bear spreading. There was relatively little news today due to holiday trade, but the US dollar was higher against the Brazilian real, which tends to dampen export demand. Soybean meal was lower, while soybean oil was higher.
  • This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
  • China is seemingly loading up on US soybeans before potential tariffs take place under the Trump administration. Sinograin has purchased 500,000 tons of US soybeans for delivery in March-April, reportedly preferring the quality of US soybeans. However, there are concerns that export demand may slide next year if tariffs are implemented.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of soybeans. They sold 17,932 contracts, leaving them net short 76,252 contracts.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, December 17. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 17,932 contracts between December 11 – 17, bringing their total position to a net short 76,252 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite some strength in the US dollar, all three wheat classes posted solid gains, potentially supported by recent news that Russia intends to cap further wheat exports at 10.6 mmt for the second half of the marketing year, after shipping a record-large 29 mmt in the first half. Sharply higher Matif wheat futures also offered additional support. Volatility may increase given the shortened trading week and lower trade volume surrounding Christmas.
  • Weekly wheat inspections of 14.8 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 439 mb, up 34% from last year. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace; wheat exports for 24/25 are projected at 850 mb, up 20% year-over-year.
  • From a technical perspective, Chicago wheat futures had become oversold following the recent price tumble. Daily stochastics now show a crossover signal, which could indicate a near-term bottom and suggest the market is due for a correction to the upside.
  • Last week, managed funds added over 20,000 contracts to their net short position in Chicago wheat, bringing the total short to about 87,000 contracts. This could leave the market primed for a short-covering rally, but fresh bullish news may be needed to ignite it, especially as both the Australian and Argentine wheat crops are larger than last year.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of your remaining open July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 93 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 16% from its October high of 656.25, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 Chicago Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.
  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, December 17. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 20,622 contracts between December 11 – 17, bringing their total position to a net short 87,401 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, December 17. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,369 contracts between December 11 – 17, bringing their total position to a net short 33,067 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, December 17. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,045 contracts bringing their total position to a net short 27,017 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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12-20 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Continue to Rebound for the Second Consecutive Day.

MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 24: The CME closes at 12:15 p.m. (CT), and Total Farm Marketing offices close at 1:00 p.m. (CT). There will be no End of Day Grain Market Insider

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 25: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn benefited from the strength of the soybean market, rising for the second consecutive session. A drier forecast in Argentina could potentially limit corn production, providing a further boost to the corn market.
  • Soybeans rose today for the second consecutive session, driven primarily by higher soybean meal prices, although soybean oil ended lower.
  • Wheat markets closed mixed today, with Chicago wheat finishing lower, while Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat saw modest gains. A lower close in Matif wheat failed to provide support for the overall wheat market.
  • To see the updated U.S. and South American precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you did not act on the prior sales recommendations and/or need to move bushels for cash flow, Grain Market Insider issued a catch-up recommendation on December 11, with the next catch-up target at 455 (Mar ‘25).
  • If you have followed all prior sales recommendations and are comfortable with cash flow until spring, Grain Market Insider advises holding steady for now.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.
  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished the week higher as the market used strength in the soybean market to trend higher for the second consecutive session. For the week, March corn futures finished 4 ¼ cents higher as prices are trading range bound in an overall direction.
  • Forecast for a possible trending drier forecast in Argentina help pull the soybean meal market higher, supporting soybeans. A drier forecast could limit corn production, so the corn market moved in sympathy.
  • USDA reported a flash export sale of corn this morning. Columbia bought 150,000 MT (5.9 mb) of corn for the current marketing year. 
  • With the Christmas holiday approaching next week, the market could turn choppy on thin or lighter trade volumes. The corn market will be open for a short trading session on Tuesday and closed on Wednesday next week in the Christmas Holiday trading hours.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the second consecutive day and have now taken back all but two cents of Wednesday’s sell-off. Soybean meal clearly led soybeans higher today with a gain of 3.66% in the January contract or $10.40. Soybean oil ended the day lower.
  • Soybean oil continued to sell off today and posted large losses for the week as the expiration date for the 40B tax credit looms at the end of the year. The Biden administration has not yet approved the subsequent 45Z tax credit that would be in effect next year, and this has trade concerned.
  • China is seemingly loading up on US soybeans before potential tariffs take effect in the Trump administration. Sinograin has bought 500,000 tons of US soybeans for delivery in March-April as they reportedly prefer the quality of US soybeans. There are concerns that export demand may slide next year if tariffs are implemented.
  • For the week, January soybeans lost 13-3/4 cents at $9.74-1/2 while November 25 soybeans lost 19 cents at $9.87-1/4. January soybean meal gained $8.30 on the week to $294.50 and January soybean oil lost 3.13 cents to 39.48 cents.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After trading both sides of neutral, Chicago wheat closed slightly lower, while Kansas City and Minneapolis futures posted small gains. The sharp decline in the US Dollar Index alleviated some pressure on the wheat market, but a lower close for Matif wheat provided no support.
  • Globally, weather in the northern hemisphere remains generally favorable for the wheat crop. While there is speculation about smaller Russian exports and potential quality concerns in European wheat, the larger harvests expected in Australia and Argentina are likely to offset these factors.
  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as of December 19, Argentina’s wheat harvest is 76.1% complete, up from 63.9% the previous week. The production estimate remains unchanged at 18.6 mmt, compared to last year’s crop of 15.1 mmt.
  • In a statement from the German Federal Statistics Office, farmers have planted approximately 4.8 million hectares of winter grain, reflecting a 5.6% increase year-over-year. Of this total, winter wheat accounts for 2.8 million hectares, marking a 12% year-over-year rise.
  • The second vessel carrying wheat from Russia to Egypt has reportedly departed port. Egypt purchased 430,000 mt of wheat from Russia in September, but the shipments were delayed until recently. This vessel is said to be carrying 54,000 mt of wheat.
  • According to the European Commission, the 2024/25 EU grain production estimate is now 255.8 mmt, down from 256.9 mmt in the November forecast. The soft wheat crop saw a decline from 112.3 mmt to 111.9 mmt for the same period.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommends liquidating half of your remaining open July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 93 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 16% from its October high of 656.25, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 Chicago Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.
  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommends liquidating half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommends liquidating half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil, N. Argentina 1 week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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12-19 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Rebound After Wednesday’s Washout

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures clawed back some of yesterday’s losses on Thursday, backed by strong weekly export sales and a rebound in soybean futures.
  • Soybeans were higher today, recovering about half of yesterday’s losses. Higher soybean meal and soybean oil helped provide support as the entire soybean complex attempts to rally off of their recent lows.
  • Wheat futures were lower across all three classes today. Poor weekly export sales and a stronger US dollar added outside pressure.
  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor as well as the South American GRACE-Based Root Zone Soil Moisture Drought Indicator courtesy of NASA, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you did not act on the prior sales recommendations and/or need to move bushels for cash flow, Grain Market Insider issued a catch-up recommendation on December 11, with the next catch-up target at 455 (Mar ‘25).
  • If you have followed all prior sales recommendations and are comfortable with cash flow until spring, Grain Market Insider advises holding steady for now.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.
  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw some price recovery on Thursday led by a supportive weekly export sales report, and buying strength in the soybean market.
  • The proposed spending legislation to combat the potential government shutdown this weekend is likely to get rejected. This possibility could put plans for the 40B tax credit back on the table, which has been a pressure in the market the past couple sessions.
  • Weekly corn exports sales last week totaled 1.174 MMT (46.2 mb) which was within expectations. Total corn sales on the books are trending 29% above last year and still ahead of the adjusted USDA pace.
  • The Brazilian real continues to lose value against the US dollar, reaching new historical lows again on Wednesday. The weaker currency gives Brazilian grain exports a significant price advantage over US offerings.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher in recovery action following yesterday’s meltdown. Futures recovered around half of yesterday’s losses, but there are still a number of bearish factors that could continue driving prices lower. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher.
  • This morning, private exporters reported sales of 227,200 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations. Of the total, 152,200 metric tons are for delivery for the 2024/2025 marketing year and 75,000 metric tons are for delivery for the 2025/2026 marketing year.
  • Today’s Export Sales report was good with sales coming in right at the average trade guesses. The USDA reported an increase of 52.3 mb for 24/25. Last week’s export shipments of 62.0 mb were well above the 25.6 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate. Primary destinations were to China, unknown destinations, and Pakistan.
  • The devaluation of the Brazilian real relative to the rising US dollar has made US soybeans less competitive. However, the larger bearish news yesterday may have come from concerns about the expiration of the 40B tax credit at the end of the year, which could impact renewable diesel and, consequently, soybean oil.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat markets fell today, led by Chicago, despite gains in corn and soybeans. A stronger US Dollar Index and weaker Paris milling wheat weighed heavily, as traders brushed off concerns over poor Russian conditions.
  • The USDA reported 16.8 mb in wheat export sales for 24/25. Weekly shipments fell short of the 17.6 mb needed to hit the 850 mb target, but total commitments are at 593 mb—up 9% year-over-year.
  • FranceAgriMer raised French 24/25 wheat stocks to 2.87 mmt (+2.7% from November) but still 9.9% lower than 23/24. Soft wheat export estimates dropped slightly to 9.76 mmt from 9.89 mmt last month.
  • Strategie Grains are anticipating better growing conditions in the EU for the 25/26 wheat crop. A larger planted area and better yields are expected to lead to an 11% increase in soft wheat production. Additionally, EU soft wheat exports may rise due to a lower Russian crop.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.
  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.
  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: South American GRACE-Based Root Zone Soil Moisture Drought Indicator courtesy of NASA, University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

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12-18 End of Day: Sharply Lower Soybeans Weigh on Markets

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Big losses in the bean market and the expiration of a key biofuel tax credit kept sellers active in the corn market, pushing prices below key support from recent consolidation.
  • Sharply lower prices in both products weighed on the soybean market, which hit fresh contract lows for the second consecutive day. Expiring biofuel tax credits and a weak Brazilian currency contributed to the negativity.
  • Weakness in the corn and soybean markets spilled over to the wheat complex, which reversed earlier gains to close lower across the board and near session lows.
  • To see updated US and South American weather outlooks, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity to make catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market is trading around the 450 area in the March ’24 contract. If you missed previous sales recommendations, this level offers a good opportunity to catch up on sales, especially with potential heavy resistance just overhead near the 200-day moving average. Additionally, making a sale now could help meet any capital needs for your operation.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.
  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure across the grain markets, led by strong selling in the soybean market, weighed on corn futures, resulting in moderate losses on the day.
  • Concerns over the expiration of tax credits for biofuels pressured grain markets for the second consecutive day. The 40B tax credit, which supports the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) program, is set to expire at the end of the year. With no plan for extension into 2025, the lack of clarity has triggered selling across the grain markets.
  • The Brazilian real continues to lose value against the US dollar, reaching new historical lows again on Wednesday. The weaker currency gives Brazilian grain exports a significant price advantage over US offerings.
  • Weekly ethanol production remains strong, rising to 1,103K barrels per day for the week ending Dec. 13, up from 1,078K bpd the prior week. Corn usage for ethanol was estimated at 107.3 mb, higher than the previous week but below last year’s levels. Corn use for ethanol remains ahead of USDA targets for the marketing year.
  • Weekly export sales will be announced Thursday morning. Last week’s sales fell below expectations, disappointing the market. New sales are expected to range between 800,000 and 1.6 mmt, with traders looking for direction in corn exports.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower for the fourth consecutive day, hitting new contract lows. Both soybean oil and meal also declined, with soybean oil posting larger losses recently. A flash sale reported this morning was largely dismissed by traders.
  • The devaluation of the Brazilian real relative to the rising US dollar has made US soybeans less competitive. However, the larger bearish news today may stem from concerns about the expiration of the 40B tax credit at the end of the year, which could impact renewable diesel and, consequently, soybean oil.
  • The 40B tax credit will expire at year-end, and although the Biden administration was expected to implement the 45Z tax credit for 2025, this has not yet occurred. The uncertainty surrounding biofuels and sustainable aviation fuel has led traders to sell aggressively.
  • This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 120,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Colombia during the 24/25 marketing year.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted losses again, fueled by lower corn prices and sharply lower soybeans in another risk-off session. The Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has caused the U.S. Dollar Index to rise sharply, which may add pressure on wheat in the coming days.
  • Despite scattered showers in southern Australia, the weather pattern looks drier as the year-end approaches. This should aid in their remaining wheat harvest.
  • Chinese customs data shows November wheat imports at just 70,000 metric tons, down 89.9% year-on-year. Year-to-date imports have also declined 4.1% to 11.02 million metric tons.
  • Egypt is preparing to receive the first shipment of their 430,000 metric ton purchase of Russian wheat from September, which was delayed from its original October schedule for unknown reasons. The vessel is said to be carrying 63,000 metric tons of wheat.
  • Weather models indicate above-normal temperatures in European Russia through December, but thick snow cover should protect dormant wheat from damage, despite a potential cold snap approaching.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.
  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.
  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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12-17 End of Day: Grain Markets Close in the Red

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Following a day of two-sided trade with support near yesterday’s lows, the corn market came under pressure from lower soybeans and wheat, settling with relatively minor losses.
  • Despite two flash sales, the soybean market remained focused on favorable crop weather in South America, printing new contract lows across the board before reclaiming some losses going into the close.
  • Chicago wheat posted its fourth consecutive lower close, while the KC and Minneapolis contracts recorded their third lower close in the last four sessions as the market adopted a risk-off stance across the ag space with little fresh bullish news.
  • To see the updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, and GRACE-based Drought Indicators, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity to make catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market is trading around the 450 area in the March ’24 contract. If you missed previous sales recommendations, this level offers a good opportunity to catch up on sales, especially with potential heavy resistance just overhead near the 200-day moving average. Additionally, making a sale now could help meet any capital needs for your operation.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.
  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market closed with minor losses after a day of two-sided trade, finding support near the 10-day moving average and yesterday’s close, while facing overhead pressure from lower soybeans and wheat.
  • This morning, the USDA reported its first flash sale of corn since Nov. 25. Private exporters reported to the that USDA 170,400 mt (6.7 mb) of corn was sold to Mexico for the 24/25 marketing year.
  • Congress reportedly passed a stopgap spending bill funding the government through mid-March, including provisions for year-round E15, potentially boosting annual corn usage by 25–50 mb.
  • Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised Argentina’s corn production estimate by 1 mmt to 49 mmt, citing less switching to soybeans, though it remains below the USDA’s 51 mmt forecast.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower, making new contract lows across the board as they broke out of their recent range to the downside. This occurred despite two flash sales reported this morning, as traders focused on favorable Brazilian weather. Soybean meal closed higher, while soybean oil was sharply lower.
  • This morning, private exporters reported to the USDA a sale of 187,000 metric tons of soybeans to Spain for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year. Additionally, a sale of 132,000 mt was reported to unknown destinations for the same period.
  • According to AgRural, production estimates for the 24/25 Brazilian soybean crop stand at 171.5 mmt, with rains falling over most of the country for a week as planting wrapped up.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections report was solid, with soybean inspections totaling 61.6 million bushels for the week ending December 12. This brought total inspections for 24/25 to 927 mb, up 19% from last year.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with modest losses across all three US futures classes, alongside lower corn, soybeans, and Paris milling wheat futures. Soybeans led the grain complex lower, with that weakness likely spilling over into wheat as the market adopted a risk-off posture.
  • Wheat traded lower today despite SovEcon cutting its Russian wheat production estimate by 3 mmt to 78.7 mmt, the smallest crop since 2021, if realized. Russian wheat FOB export values have risen over $10 since last week, now at $236 per mt.
  • The French farm ministry estimates that its 2025 soft wheat harvested area will increase about 9% year-over-year to 4.51 million hectares, due to better planting weather.
  • Since the season began on July 1, Ukraine has exported 19.5 mmt of grain, up 22% year-over-year. Wheat exports specifically total 9.2 mmt, a 37% increase from last year.
  • European Union 24/25 soft wheat exports total 10.54 mmt as of December 15, down 31% from the same period last year.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.
  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.
  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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12-16 End of Day: Markets Close Mixed on Monday

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market rebuffed selling pressure from neighboring soybeans and wheat, closing near session highs, with bull spreading adding support to the front-month contracts.
  • Weakness in soybean oil and November NOPA crush numbers, which came in below expectations, weighed on the soybean market, closing near session lows across the board.
  • The wheat complex closed in the lower half of the day’s range across all three classes, with Chicago contracts showing the most weakness as they closed lower for the third consecutive day.
  • To see the updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity to make catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market is trading around the 450 area in the March ’24 contract. If you missed previous sales recommendations, this level offers a good opportunity to catch up on sales, especially with potential heavy resistance just overhead near the 200-day moving average. Additionally, making a sale now could help meet any capital needs for your operation.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.
  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market remained firm against selling pressure in the other grains to start the week as futures finished with mild market gains.
  • Weekly corn export inspections remained supportive, as US exporters shipped 1.130 mmt of corn last week. Year over year, inspections are 31% higher and remain ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA’s adjusted export targets.
  • Managed funds continued buying in the corn market. Supported by the Dec. 10 USDA report and friendly demand adjustments, funds increased their net long position to 165,890 contracts, up 77,760 from the prior week. Money flow could be a key factor for the corn market heading into 2025.
  • Brazilian agriculture analysts AgRural raised their corn production forecast to 121.3 mmt, citing favorable weather patterns and increased planted area.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly lower, nearing a downside breakout of their recent range, but did not take out last month’s contract low of 982 ½ for the March contract. Soybean meal managed to close higher, while soybean oil ended lower after a disappointing NOPA crush and lower palm oil.
  • Today’s export inspections report was solid, with soybean inspections totaling 61.6 million bushels for the week ending December 12. This brought total inspections for 24/25 to 927 mb, up 19% from last year.
  • November NOPA crush totaled 193.185 million bushels, marking the largest November crush on record. This was up 2.2% year-over-year but down from October’s crush and below the average trade estimate of 195.911 mb.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed managed funds as buyers of 13,897 soybean contracts, reducing their net short position to 58,320 contracts as of December 10. Despite fund buying, soybeans only moved three cents higher during that week.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed mixed after two-sided trade, with Chicago front-months finishing lower and deferred contracts posting small gains. Kansas City ended near its daily low but stayed positive, while Minneapolis made modest gains. The trade seemed weak despite a slightly lower US Dollar and strong Paris milling wheat futures.
  • Weekly wheat inspections totaled 11 mb, bringing the 24/25 inspections to 424 mb, up 29% from last year. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace. Exports for 24/25 are projected at 850 mb, which would be a 20% increase from the previous year.
  • Saudi Arabia reportedly purchased 804,000 mt of wheat in a tender at prices ranging from $262.50 to $269.89 CNF. The wheat is expected to originate from Bulgaria, Romania, South America, and Russia, with shipments scheduled between February 25 and April 25.
  • The United Arab Emirates has offered a $500 million loan to Egypt for wheat purchases, with $100 million disbursed annually over five years. As Egypt’s military has taken over wheat procurement from GASC, it remains unclear how this arrangement will be implemented.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.
  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.
  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.