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11-21 End of Day: Grains Slide Lower Thursday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Selling pressure in grain markets weighed on corn futures Thursday, as double-digit soybean losses and a stronger U.S. dollar capped potential gains.

  • Soybeans fell for a third straight day, with March and deferred contracts hitting new lows despite strong export sales and daily flash sales. Declines were driven by weaker soybean oil and continued favorable South American weather, as soybean oil also closed lower.

  • Four-month high export sales and higher French wheat prices were not enough to pull wheat futures higher today, a stronger US Dollar added downside pressure.

  • To see the updated US and South American one week precipitation forecasts scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • General selling pressure in the grain markets weighed on corn futures on Thursday. Double digit losses in the soybean market and renewed strength in the U.S. dollar limited gains in the corn market.

  • The U.S. dollar pushed to new highs for the move today as the value of the dollar broke out of its recent consolidation pattern to the upside. A strong dollar limits the competitiveness of U.S. corn on the export market.

  • The USDA announced weekly exports sales on Thursday morning. Last week, exporters posted 1.494 MMT (58.8 mb) of new corn sales for the current marketing year. This total was within market expectations, Mexico remained the top buyer of U.S. corn last week.

  • Weak energy prices and rising corn costs have pushed most ethanol plant margins negative. While demand exceeds expectations, prolonged margin pressure could curb corn usage for ethanol.

  • The corn market may see an increase in volatility going into the weekend and Thanksgiving Day Holiday. December options expire on Friday and First Notice Day nears next week, which could bring an increase in activity and money flow. 

Above: Overhead resistance for the March contract comes in between 440 and 445. A close above this area could trigger a test of the 465 resistance area. Below the market, support may come in between 425 and 420.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the third consecutive day causing the March contract and beyond to post new contract lows. The move came despite solid export sales and a slew of flash sales. Prices were driven lower by lower soybean oil and continued good weather in South America. Soybean oil ended the day lower as well.

  • Today’s export sales report showed soybean export sales totaling 68 million bushels which was above the average trade guess. This brought year to date commitments to 1.161 billion which is up 9% from YA compared to the USDA estimate of 8%.

  • This morning, private exporters reported multiple soybean flash sales. 198,000 metric tons of soybeans were reported to delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year, 135,000 metric tons were reported for delivery to unknown destinations, and 133,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal were reported for delivery to the Philippines during the 24/25 marketing year.

  • Rumors of China’s interest in U.S. soybeans circulated last night, with Sino Grain actively buying February shipments. This may have been the flash sale seen this morning, but it could also indicate that China is looking to make additional soybean purchases from the US.

Above: Soybeans appear to have found nearby support around 986. A close above 1014 could lead to another test of the 1044 -1050 area. Otherwise, should the market trade through 986 and close below 975 support, prices could drift towards 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat faded from overnight highs despite rising Black Sea tensions and higher Matif wheat, with December contracts facing resistance near their 20-day moving averages. A stronger US dollar hitting 13-month highs likely added pressure.

  • Weekly export sales for wheat came in at a four-month high of 20 mb for the 24/25 marketing year. Year-to-date commitments are now 544 mb, up 23% from last year and in line with historical averages.

  • This week’s updated Drought Monitor showed 40% of the winter wheat areas are experiencing drought, down from 43% last week, and 41% last year, as recent rain has helped improve conditions.

  • Escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions, including reports of a Russian ICBM strike, continue to influence wheat. The recent rally appears driven by less bullish short covering, not fresh buying, as volume and open interest have declined.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Overhead resistance for March wheat lies near key moving averages around 578–586, with a close above potentially targeting 617. Support is seen between 546–536, with major support near 521–514.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: With initial support below the market remaining in the 545 – 535 area, prices remain poised to test the heavy resistance area around 580 – 583. A close above that level could allow for a test of 593 – 603. Otherwise, close below 535 could press prices towards the August low of 527 ¼.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • New sales targets will be issued in the coming weeks, as timing and conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to March, leaving a gap between 580 ½ and 584 ½ from the contract roll. Resistance remains near 615–624, with initial support around 584 and major support near 563.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-20 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Recover to the Upside, While Beans Slide

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • With support from the neighboring wheat market and a solid ethanol production report, corn futures managed their highest close in nearly two weeks, a difficult task as sellers have stepped in at these levels.

  • Sharply lower soybean oil and the prospect of a large Brazilian soybean crop continue to weigh on the soybean market, which closed in the bottom third of the day’s 15-cent range despite new export sales.

  • Soybean oil closed with a 3.47% loss after breaking support in the January contract as traders move to take profits and liquidate long positions triggered by weak world veg oil prices.

  • Despite a stronger US dollar and Southern Hemisphere harvests, wheat closed higher across the board, rebounding from earlier declines as traders continue to add war premium to prices.

  • To see updated US and South American precipitation forecasts and GRACE-based Drought Indicators, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued when seasonal opportunities improve.  This could be as early as late fall or as late as early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures edged higher on Wednesday, marking their highest close since November 8. The 430-price level December continues to cap gains as sellers step in near this point.

  • Weekly ethanol production dropped to 1.110 million barrels/day for the week ending November 15, down 3.27 million from the prior week but 8.5% higher than last year. Corn use totaled 111.6 mb, approximately 15.9 mb/day, above the pace needed to meet the USDA’s yearly ethanol grind target.

  • The USDA will release weekly corn export sales Thursday, with expectations between 1.0 and 2.2 mmt. Last week’s 1.35 mmt sales were a bit disappointing, possibly due to a stronger US dollar reducing competitiveness.

  • The cereal grain markets, corn and wheat, will be keeping a close eye on geo-political tensions between Ukraine and Russia. A possible escalation of the ongoing war between the two would likely be supportive for both cereal grain markets.

  • The corn market may see an increase in volatility this week as December options expire Friday and First Notice Day nears next week, which could bring an increase in activity and money flow.

Above: Overhead resistance for the March contract comes in between 440 and 445. A close above this area could trigger a test of the 465 resistance area. Below the market, support may come in between 425 and 420.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the second day, with January contracts near session lows and 17 cents above the August contract low. Pressure came from weaker soybean oil, dragged down by lower palm oil, while soybean meal ended slightly higher.

  • The USDA reported private export sales totaling 202,000 mt of soybeans to China and 226,200 mt to unknown destinations, both for 24/25 delivery.

  • Abiove raised its 24/25 Brazil soybean production estimate to 167.7 mmt, surpassing CONAB’s 166.14 mmt projection. If realized, this record crop could boost exports to 104.1 mmt according to the firm.

  • China’s October US soybean imports surged to 541,434 mt, nearly doubling last year, as buyers accelerated purchases amid trade tension concerns. Imports from Brazil totaled 8.09 mmt, maintaining its position as China’s top supplier.

Above: Soybeans appear to have found nearby support around 986. A close above 1014 could lead to another test of the 1044 -1050 area. Otherwise, should the market trade through 986 and close below 975 support, prices could drift towards 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • US wheat posted modest gains despite a strong day and positive reversal for Matif wheat futures, with a higher US Dollar Index likely keeping wheat prices in check.

  • Wheat harvests in Australia and Argentina continue to pressure US markets, with Argentina’s wheat export values dropping $6 to $216/mt, making US wheat less competitive globally.

  • EU soft wheat exports reached 8.79 mmt for the season as of November 17, down 31% from 12.7 mmt during the same period last year, according to the European Commission.

  • Houthi rebels launched two separate unsuccessful missile attacks on a grain vessel en route from Ukraine to Pakistan on November 17 and 18, escalating regional tensions.

  • Russia’s wheat export duty increased 4.7%, from 2,569.2 to 2,689.7 Rubels per mt starting November 20. In 2021 Russia initiated floating duties on exports of corn, barley, and wheat, with the funds going to subsidize agriculture producers.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Overhead resistance for March wheat lies near key moving averages around 578–586, with a close above potentially targeting 617. Support is seen between 546–536, with major support near 521–514.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: With initial support below the market remaining in the 545 – 535 area, prices remain poised to test the heavy resistance area around 580 – 583. A close above that level could allow for a test of 593 – 603. Otherwise, close below 535 could press prices towards the August low of 527 ¼.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • New sales targets will be issued in the coming weeks, as timing and conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to March, leaving a gap between 580 ½ and 584 ½ from the contract roll. Resistance remains near 615–624, with initial support around 584 and major support near 563.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-19 End of Day: Corn and Beans Close Lower with Wheat Well off Its Highs

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • With little fresh news to trade, the corn market faded from early session highs and reversed lower as it came under pressure from neighboring soybeans and traders took profits from the recent rally.

  • Weakness in both products, and the prospect of a large South American soybean crop continue to weigh on the soybean market, which closed near session lows following a day of choppy trade.

  • Despite escalating tensions in the Black Sea, all three wheat classes closed well off the session highs pressured by solid winter wheat crop ratings, and the advancing harvest in the Southern Hemisphere.

  • To see updated US and South American weather outlooks, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued when seasonal opportunities improve.  This could be as early as late fall or as late as early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn gained early strength from a higher wheat market driven by rising Black Sea war tensions but succumbed to potential profit-taking as it hit resistance above 430 CZ. Additional pressure came from lower-trading soybeans.

  • Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reported that the country’s corn acres are expected to expand next year by 500,000 hectares (1.2 million acres), primarily from soybean acres.

  • The December/March corn spread traded to -9 ¾ cents, its strongest level in eleven months before fading midday, as strong demand supports basis and spreads with processors and exporters working to keep supply lines filled.

  • The corn market may see an increase in volatility this week as December options expire Friday and First Notice Day nears next week, which could bring an increase in activity and money flow.

Above: Soybeans appear to have found nearby support around 986. A close above 1014 could lead to another test of the 1044 -1050 area. Otherwise, should the market trade through there and close below 975 support, prices could drift towards 940.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended lower after mixed trade, with early overnight gains erased by pressure from weaker soybean oil and slightly lower meal. Prices remain near the $10 mark as favorable South American weather weighs on the market, while strong demand provides underlying support.

  • Brazil’s Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro announced plans to unveil farm agreements and potential export deals with China, covering various ag products. This comes amid rising tensions involving Russia, the US, and China.

  • Brazil’s 24/25 soybean planting reached 80% by November 14, up from 67% a week ago and 68% last year. Weather remains favorable, with consistent rain in central regions supporting the crop.

  • As of the latest CFTC report, managed funds held a net short position of 55,000 contracts. Since November 12, funds have been relatively quiet, adding an estimated 5,000 short contracts.

Above: Soybeans appear to have found nearby support around 986. A close above 1014 could lead to another test of the 1044 -1050 area. Otherwise, should the market trade through 986 and close below 975 support, prices could drift towards 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat faded from early strength to close slightly higher across all three classes, mirroring Paris milling wheat futures. A lack of fresh news and ongoing Southern Hemisphere harvests may be capping gains.

  • According to the USDA, as of November 17, 94% of the US winter wheat crop was planted, in line with last year but slightly below the 96% average. Emergence reached 84%, matching the average but 1% below last year. The crop is rated 49% good to excellent, up 5% from last week and the highest for this time of year in six years.

  • Black Sea tensions continue to add war premium to wheat. Reports indicate Ukraine used a US long-range missile to strike a Russian ammunition depot, raising concerns of further conflict escalation.

  • Cereals Canada projects the 2024 wheat crop at 34.3 mmt, 4% above last year and 8% above the five-year average. Exports could reach 25.4 mmt, potentially making Canada the world’s third-largest wheat exporter.

  • Ukraine’s deputy agriculture minister estimates the 2025 wheat crop could reach 25 mmt, up from 22 mmt in 2024, due to an expected increase in planted area to 5 million hectares from 4.6 million hectares.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to the March contract. Major support below the market remains between 521 and 514, though intermediate support may be found 535. Overhead, heavy resistance remains between 580 and 586.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: With initial support below the market remaining in the 545 – 535 area, prices remain poised to test the heavy resistance area around 580 – 583. A close above that level could allow for a test of 593 – 603. Otherwise, close below 535 could press prices towards the August low of 527 ¼.

Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • New sales targets will be issued in the coming weeks, as timing and conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to the March contract and the chart gap left between 580 ½ and 584 ½ represents the price difference between the two contract months. Overhead resistance remains between 615 and 624, and while major underlying support lies near 563, initial support may come in near 584.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-18 End of Day: Grain Markets Close Strong to Start the Week.

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover strength from neighboring wheat and a drop in the US dollar from recent highs lent support to the corn market, which followed through on Friday’s gains to close just off today’s highs.

  • Fresh export sales and solid weekly export inspections helped drive the soybean market from its overnight lows to close at the top end of its range, as it followed through on Friday’s strength.

  • Following a day of choppy two-sided trade, soybean meal and oil both traded off Friday’s support to shed overnight lows and close higher on the day.

  • All three wheat classes settled near the tops of their ranges, supported by escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions and a weaker US dollar.

  • To see updated US and South American weather outlooks, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued when seasonal opportunities improve.  This could be as early as late fall or as late as early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A strong move higher in wheat futures and a drop from the near-term peak in the US dollar supported corn futures with some follow through buying after Fridays positive close.

  • This morning’s USDA Export Inspections report showed 821,000 mt (32.3 mb) of corn shipped last week, near the top of expectations. Year-to-date shipments are 9.021 mmt, up 32% from last year.

  • The US Dollar Index eased off its highs today, signaling a potential near-term top. A potential correction could be friendly for commodity markets.

  • The corn market may face additional volatility ahead of Thanksgiving as December options expire this Friday, followed by First Notice Day next week, which could drive increased money flow and trade activity.

Above: Soybeans appear to have found nearby support around 986. A close above 1014 could lead to another test of the 1044 -1050 area. Otherwise, should the market trade through there and close below 975 support, prices could drift towards 940.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 12. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 87,946 contracts between Nov. 6 – 12, bringing their total position to a net long 109,989 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher, led by front months on strong demand. Flash sales were reported this morning, and the USDA noted a large NOPA crush number Friday. Seasonal trends between Thanksgiving and New Year may also be driving fund activity. Both meal and oil finished higher.

  • The USDA announced fresh export sales of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil for the 24/25 marketing year. Reported sales include 261,264 mt of soybeans to Mexico, 135,000 mt of meal to the Philippines, and 30,000 mt of oil to India.

  • Weekly USDA Export Inspections showed 79.6 mb of soybeans inspected for export last week, as expected. Year-to-date inspections are 9% ahead of last year.

  • According to AgRural, 80% of Brazil’s 24/25 soybean crop was planted as of last Thursday, significantly ahead of the 67% pace the previous year and the five-year average of 68%, which is impressive given the slow start to year.

  • Reports suggest China plans to reduce its export tax rebate on used cooking oil, a move that could limit US imports of the product for biofuel production.

Above: Resistance in the 1044-1050 area held with the market reversal to the downside, suggesting a potential retreat toward the October lows, where support may be found near 975. If prices regain their strength, a close above 1014 could lead to another test of the 1044 -1050 area.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 12. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 15,576 contracts between Nov. 6 – 12, bringing their total position to a net short 54,536 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted double-digit gains across all classes, fueled by escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions and a weaker US Dollar Index. Russia launched attacks on Ukraine’s electrical grid, while reports suggest the US has approved Ukraine’s use of longer-range missiles against Russia.

  • Weekly wheat inspections reached 7.2 mb, bringing 24/25 totals to 379 mb, up 31% year-over-year and ahead of the USDA’s pace to reach its projected 825 mb in annual exports, a 17% increase over last year.

  • Chinese customs data shows October wheat imports at 220,000 mt, down 66.2% year-over-year, but year-to-date imports are up 1.2% to 10.96 mmt.

  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated managed funds sold 14,500 Chicago, 11,000 Kansas City, and 5,000 Minneapolis wheat contracts, pushing their combined short position to 93,000 contracts — the largest in two months.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to the March contract. Major support below the market remains between 521 and 514, though intermediate support may be found 535. Overhead, heavy resistance remains between 580 and 586.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 12. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 14,526 contracts between Nov. 6 – 12, bringing their total position to a net short 45,307 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to the March contract. A reversal back higher may still encounter heavy resistance near 580 – 583 before testing the 593 – 603 area. Below the market, initial support may come in between 545 and 535, while major support remains near the 527 ¼ August low. 

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 12. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 11,018 contracts between Nov. 6 – 12, bringing their total position to a net short 25,098 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • New sales targets will be issued in the coming weeks, as timing and conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to the March contract and the chart gap left between 580 ½ and 584 ½ represents the price difference between the two contract months. Overhead resistance remains between 615 and 624, and while major underlying support lies near 563, initial support may come in near 584.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 12. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,316 contracts between Nov. 6 – 12, bringing their total position to a net short 22,424 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-15 End of Day: Grain Markets Rebound Across the Board Going into the Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market closed near the top of the day’s range, as traders covered short positions ahead of the weekend. Additional support came from higher soybeans and wheat, and overall solid export demand.

  • Soybeans settled mid-range and in the green, pulled higher by strong meal and sharply higher bean oil prices. Record NOPA crush for October also lent support despite declining export sales.

  • Sharply higher Matif wheat and general buying across the ag space supported the wheat complex as it attempted to recover from oversold conditions from the week’s sharp slide.

  • To see updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, and GRACE-based drought indicators,  scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity for catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market has traded back towards the top of the 397 – 434 range that it has been in since September. If you missed any of our three previous sales recommendations from earlier in the season, this rally represents a good opportunity to begin to catch up.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices recovered Friday on short covering and support from broader buying across the grain markets and overall strong export demand. Despite Friday’s gains, December corn futures ended the week 7 cents lower.

  • Weekly export sales totaled 1.315 mt for 24/25, down 53% from last week and 52% from the 4-week average. Mexico remains the top buyer. Sales were at the low end of expectations, but total accumulated sales are up 42% year-over-year.

  • Gains in the corn market may remain limited as December options expiration and First Notice Day approach. Additionally, producers’ decisions on basis and price later contracts could add selling pressure and market volatility.

  • South American weather is favorable for crops, with Brazil receiving moisture and Argentina seeing some dryness relief. Argentina’s corn planting is 39% complete.

  • The US dollar’s strength may be pressuring grain markets, slowing weekly export sales and tightening the price gap with competing supplies from Ukraine and Argentina.

Above: The charts have rolled from the December contract to the March. Overhead resistance for the March contract comes in between 440 and 445. A close above this area could trigger a test of the 465 resistance area. Below the market, support may come in between 425 and 420.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher, recovering some of yesterday’s losses, but January failed to close above the 10-dollar mark. A strong crush pace lent support, while export sales were slightly disappointing. Both meal and oil also ended higher.

  • NOPA October soybean crush hit a record 199 mb, above expectations of 196 mb, as US crushing runs at record capacity. Soybean oil stocks ticked higher to 1.069 billion pounds, still the lowest November level since 2014.

  • Soybean export sales totaled 1.555 mmt, down 24% from last week and at the lower end of expectations. Unknown destinations canceled 332,000 mt, but total sales for the marketing year remain up 6% year-over-year.

  • CONAB raised its 24/25 Brazil soybean production estimate to 166.14 mmt, up from 116.05 mmt last month. Planted area increased slightly, while yields are unchanged, marking a large crop despite early-season dryness.

Above: Resistance in the 1044-1050 area held with the market reversal to the downside, suggesting a potential retreat toward the October lows, where support may be found near 975. If prices regain their strength, a close above 1014 could lead to another test of the 1044 -1050 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat rebounded with corn and soybeans today, supported by sharply higher Matif wheat futures. All three US wheat classes closed higher but ended the week lower, with December Chicago down 36 cents, Kansas City down 24 ¼, and Minneapolis down 25.

  • The USDA reported 14.0 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Weekly shipments of 11.1 mb lagged the 15.3 mb pace needed to reach the 825 mb export goal. Total sales commitments are 524 mb, up 20% year-over-year.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange kept Argentina’s wheat production estimate at 18.6 mmt, above the USDA’s 17.5 mmt. Argentina’s wheat harvest is 17% complete.

  • Russia raised its wheat export tax by 4.7% to 2,689.70 Rubles per mt through November 26.

  • Ukraine’s grain harvest is 96% complete at 52 mmt, including 22.4 mmt of wheat. Ukraine’s agriculture ministry is projecting a total crop of 54 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus Dec ’24 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to the March contract. Major support below the market remains between 521 and 514, though intermediate support may be found 535. Overhead, heavy resistance remains between 580 and 586.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to the March contract. A reversal back higher may still encounter heavy resistance near 580 – 583 before testing the 593 – 603 area. Below the market, initial support may come in between 545 and 535, while major support remains near the 527 ¼ August low. 

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 630 – 655 area versus Dec’24 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • New sales targets will be issued in the coming weeks, as timing and conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to the March contract and the chart gap left between 580 ½ and 584 ½ represents the price difference between the two contract months. Overhead resistance remains between 615 and 624, and while major underlying support lies near 563, initial support may come in near 584.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-14 End of Day: Grain Markets Close Lower as the Dollar Inches Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market settled just off its lows as technical selling pressed December corn to its largest loss in a month after breaking support.

  • Soybeans closed sharply lower, alongside both soybean meal and oil as concern for slowing demand to China and favorable South American weather grip the market.

  • Chicago wheat led the wheat complex lower again today, as rumors of potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and the continued rise in the US dollar kept sellers active.

  • To see updated US precipitation forecast, Drought Monitor, and Percent of Winter Wheat in Drought, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity for catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market has traded back towards the top of the 397 – 434 range that it has been in since September. If you missed any of our three previous sales recommendations from earlier in the season, this rally represents a good opportunity to begin to catch up.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. If you happened to miss our previous sales recommendations and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Sellers jumped into the corn market, and commodities in general, as December corn posted its largest negative day since mid-October. The rising US dollar, and a technical break in price pressured the corn market for the session.

  • The US dollar continues to climb, trading at its highest level since November 2023. The strong dollar limits US export competitiveness and can trigger producer selling in Brazil and Argentina with the weak relationship of their currency versus the dollar. The increased selling pace makes more bushels available to the export market to compete with US supplies.

  • The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on tomorrow morning, delayed from today due to the Veterans Day holiday.  Expectations for new corn sales last week range from 1.25 – 2.6 mmt as corn export business has remained active.

  • Weekly ethanol production remains strong, with last week’s output rising to 1.113 million barrels per day — above expectations and marking a marketing-year high. A total of 112 mb of corn was used for ethanol production last week, putting usage ahead of USDA targets.

  • The corn market may stay pressured as the month of November brings December options expiration, and the pricing window for basis and price later contracts. As producers make decisions on these positions, it could lead to selling pressure and volatility in the corn market.

Above: December corn continues to see resistance in the 435 area. A close above this level could put the market in position to rally toward 475, with potential resistance between 450 and 455. If prices retreat, support below the market may lie between 415 and 409.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. For those that missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. If you happen to have capital needs, consider making additional sales into price strength. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower after trading higher overnight, slipping steadily throughout the day. January soybeans are now trading just 14 cents above their contract low, during a period when prices often begin to rise toward year-end. Both soybean meal and oil also ended the day lower.

  • Soybean meal prices remain under pressure as increased crushing for oil has boosted supplies, while favorable weather forecasts for South America, major exporters of the product, have also weighed on the market. The front month December meal contract has now traded to its lowest point since August 2020.

  • This morning the USDA reported a flash sale showing that private exporters sold 176,000 mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 24/25 marketing year.

  • NOPA will release October crush totals on Friday, with expectations for a record month. Estimates suggest 196.84 mb of soybeans were crushed, which, if realized, would be up 11% from September and 3.7% from October 2023. Soybean oil stocks are also forecasted to increase after hitting record lows in September.

  • The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on Friday morning, delayed due to the Veterans Day holiday. Expectations for new soybean sales last week range from 1.0 to 2.2 mmt. Trends will be closely watched as weekly sales have declined steadily after peaking a few weeks ago.

Above: Resistance in the 1044-1050 area held with the market reversal to the downside, suggesting a potential retreat toward the October lows, where support may be found near 975. If prices regain their strength, a close above 1014 could lead to another test of the 1044 -1050 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • It was another down day for wheat, along with the rest of the grain complex. Part of the weakness may stem from talk about potential peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, the US Dollar Index rose again to a one-year high, keeping pressure on US commodity markets.

  • According to Reuters, Australia may produce about 1 mmt more wheat than previously estimated, with harvest 15%-20% complete and showing high yields. Frost damage from September appears less severe than anticipated. Last year’s wheat harvest was 26 mmt, and the USDA projects 32 mmt this year, making Australia the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter.

  • SovEcon is reported to have lowered their estimate of Russian 2024 wheat production by 0.1 mmt to 81.4 mmt. However, they also increased their 2025 estimate by 1.5 mmt to 81.6 mmt.

  • Traders recently received updated data from South America: CONAB lowered Brazil’s wheat crop estimate by 0.15 mmt to 8.11 mmt, while the Rosario Grain Exchange cut Argentina’s forecast by 0.7 mmt to 18.8 mmt (the USDA projects 17.5 mmt). The Brazilian wheat harvest is about 80% complete, and Argentina’s is 15% complete.

  • Recent rains have caused drought readings to fall significantly for winter wheat. According to the USDA, as of November 12, about 43% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought, down from 57% a week ago. However, spring wheat area in drought increased by 1% from last week to 42%.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy is targeting the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s decline since breaking through support suggests that prices may be poised to test the 521 – 514 support area near the August low. Should prices turn around, heavy overhead resistance remains between 580 and 586.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market’s close below 547 support suggests prices may be at risk of testing major support near the 527 ¼ August low.  A reversal back higher may still encounter heavy resistance near 580 – 583 before testing the 593 – 603 resistance area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The close below 583 in the December contract puts the market at risk of trading down towards major support near the August low of 563. If a bullish catalyst enters the scene to turn prices higher, heavy resistance remains between 615 and 624.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

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11-13 End of Day: Grain Markets Drift Lower Again

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market slid lower for the third day in a row, pressured by weakness in the wheat market and seasonal weakness despite the report of solid flash sales.

  • With a lack of fresh export sales and pressure from lower soybean meal and oil, the soybean market closed with small losses after finding support near its 20-day moving average.

  • Chicago wheat led the wheat complex lower as the USDA reported improved conditions for the winter wheat crop. Expectations for more rain, combined with lower Matif wheat futures and a stronger US dollar, added to the weakness.

  • To see updated US and South American weather forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity for catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market has traded back towards the top of the 397 – 434 range that it has been in since September. If you missed any of our three previous sales recommendations from earlier in the season, this rally represents a good opportunity to begin to catch up.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. If you happened to miss our previous sales recommendations and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures traded lower for the third consecutive day as weakness in the wheat market and seasonal selling pressure outweighed a friendly daily export sale announcement.

  • The USDA announced a pair of corn export sales this morning. Mexico purchased 401,357 mt (15.8 mb) of corn, and unknown destinations added 290,820 mt (11.5 mb), with both sales for the current marketing year.

  • On the weekly crop progress numbers released on Tuesday, the current corn harvest is estimated to be 95% complete, versus 86% a year ago and 84% for the 5-year average.

  • Grain markets have been under pressure reacting to the potential appointees to positions in the Trump administration. It was announced on Tuesday the Former congressmen Lee Zeldon was tabbed to the head of the EPA. As a congressman, Rep. Zeldin has a history of supporting legislation that could limit the impact of biofuels.

  • The corn market could have limited upside as the month of November brings December options expiration, and the pricing window for basis or price later contracts. As producers make decisions on these positions, it could lead to selling pressure and volatility in the corn market.

  • U.S. dollar continues to climb, trading at its highest levels since May. The strong dollar limited U.S. export competitiveness and can trigger producer selling in Brazil and Argentina with the weak relationship of foreign currency versus the dollar.

Above: December corn continues to see resistance in the 435 area. A close above this level could put the market in position to rally toward 475, with potential resistance between 450 and 455. If prices retreat, support below the market may lie between 415 and 409.

Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. For those that missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. If you happen to have capital needs, consider making additional sales into price strength. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the third consecutive day but found support near the 20-day moving average, bouncing off their lows to end with a small loss. The recent downtrend may stem from a lack of flash sales after several active weeks. Both soybean meal and oil also closed lower, with soybean oil posting the larger loss.

  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed the soybean crop at 96% harvested. This compares to 94% last week, the 5-year average of 91%, and was within the range of average trade guesses. With harvest virtually complete, trade will look for a potential post-harvest rally.

  • In Brazil, the soybean crop is reportedly 67% planted as of Nov 7, according to AgRural. This compares to 54% a week ago and 61% the previous year. It has been impressive to see how quickly planting has rebounded after the weather delays. Production is expected to reach 168.3 mmt.

  • China’s COFCO estimates that the country’s soybean imports may drop by 9.5% for the 24/25 marketing year. Officials also stated that Chinese buyers stockpiled soybeans ahead of the US elections out of concern for deteriorating relations with the US.

Above: The reversal in January soybeans suggests that the 1044–1050 resistance area remains intact, with prices potentially retreating toward the October lows, where support may be found near 975. Psychological support could emerge around the 1000 level before that. If prices regain their strength, a close above 1050 could lead to a test of the 1070 area.

Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat again posted double-digit losses in the Chicago futures, with smaller losses in Kansas City and Minneapolis. Sharply lower Matif wheat futures offered no support to the U.S. market, nor did another move higher in the US Dollar. Additionally, improvements in winter wheat crop conditions contributed to the weakness.

  • According to the USDA, as of November 10, 91% of the US winter wheat crop has been planted, slightly behind last year’s 92% pace and the 93% average. Of the planted crop, 76% has emerged, also trailing last year and the average, both at 79%. Recent rains improved conditions, raising the good-to-excellent rating by 3% from last week to 44%. Additional moisture expected over the next week could further boost conditions.

  • Russia’s wheat export values are reportedly at $226 per mt for December and $230 for January. These prices fall well below the government-suggested minimum, maintaining pressure on the export market. Additionally, EU and Argentina FOB values are now close to Russia’s, which is also bearish for the US market.

  • On a bullish note, India’s domestic wheat prices have hit a record high due to strong demand and limited supply. In September, the Indian government reduced the amount of stocks that traders and millers could hold to curb prices. However, this measure appears to have been less effective than anticipated, and the government may need to release wheat from its reserves to control prices. This situation also reinforces the possibility that India may need to become a net wheat importer in the future.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy is targeting the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s decline since breaking through support suggests that prices may be poised to test the 521 – 514 support area near the August low. Should prices turn around, heavy overhead resistance remains between 580 and 586.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market’s close below 547 support suggests prices may be at risk of testing major support near the 527 ¼ August low.  A reversal back higher may still encounter heavy resistance near 580 – 583 before testing the 593 – 603 resistance area.

Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The close below 583 in the December contract puts the market at risk of trading down towards major support near the August low of 563. If a bullish catalyst enters the scene to turn prices higher, heavy resistance remains between 615 and 624.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 7-day total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-12 End of Day: Markets Close Lower Across the Board

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market closed near the bottom of the day’s range, with relatively small losses as it continues to consolidate inside Friday’s trading range. Selling pressure came from lower wheat and soybeans, and a higher US dollar.

  • Soybeans followed through on Monday’s weak close from technical selling and sharply lower soybean oil, which has reversed its recent up trend.

  • Soybean oil followed palm oil lower, which lost 3.2% overnight after reaching 2 ½ year highs. Meal also closed down on the day as it continues to drift sideways to lower.

  • The wheat complex settled with double-digit losses across the board after rejecting Monday’s late day strength. Expectations of more rain in the US Plains, carryover weakness from lower Matif wheat, and a rising US Dollar Index contributed to the weakness.

  • To see updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity for catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market has traded back towards the top of the 397 – 434 range that it has been in since September. If you missed any of our three previous sales recommendations from earlier in the season, this rally represents a good opportunity to begin to catch up.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished lower for the second straight session, pressured by selling momentum across the soybean and wheat markets, as the US dollar remains strong.

  • The US dollar continued its breakout move after the election, trading higher in four of the past five sessions and reaching its highest level since June. The strong dollar has triggered some producer selling in Brazil and Argentina and may have weakened the competitiveness of US grains against global competition.

  • The USDA released weekly export inspection for corn today.  Inspections last week totaled 793,012 mt (31.2 mb), down slightly from the previous week’s total.  Total inspections are now at 324 mb, up 31% over last year.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn on the export market this morning.  Mexico purchased 110,500 mt (4.35 mb) of corn for the current marketing year.

  • The weekly crop progress report will be released later this afternoon, delayed due to the Veterans Day holiday. The market expects the corn harvest to be nearly 95% complete as producers wrap up this year’s work.

Above: December corn continues to see resistance in the 435 area. A close above this level could put the market in position to rally toward 475, with potential resistance between 450 and 455. If prices retreat, support below the market may lie between 415 and 409.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. For those with capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the second consecutive day, likely due to technical selling after failing to close above the 100-day moving average twice in a row. Most of today’s pressure came from sharply lower soybean oil, which reversed the recent trend of soybean oil gains while meal slipped. However, with meal prices so low, demand may now be kicking in.

  • Today’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections totaling 83.7 mb for the week ending November 7. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 560 mb, which is up 6% from this point last year. The USDA is estimating soybean exports at 1.825 bb for 24/25 which would be up 7% from last year.

  • In Brazil, the soybean crop is reportedly 67% planted as of Nov 7, according to AgRural. This compares to 54% a week ago and 61% the previous year. It has been impressive to see how quickly planting has rebounded after the weather delays.

  • Since the election results were announced, there has been a sharp rise in the US dollar. Many of the export sales seen by the US ahead of the election are now being diverted to South America as soybeans there have become cheaper as a result of the difference between the US Dollar and Brazilian Real.

Above: The reversal in January soybeans suggests that the 1044–1050 resistance area remains intact, with prices potentially retreating toward the October lows, where support may be found near 975. Psychological support could emerge around the 1000 level before that. If prices regain their strength, a close above 1044 could lead to a test of the 1070 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted double-digit losses across all three futures classes. Pressure again came from a lower close for Matif wheat, another rise in the US Dollar Index, and spillover weakness from lower corn and soybeans. Additional precipitation expected in the US Plains states over the next week or so also added weight to the wheat complex.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections of 12.8 mb bring total 24/25 inspections to 372 mb, up 40% from last year. This is ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace; they project total wheat exports at 825 mb, an increase of 17% from the previous year.

  • According to Ukraine’s agriculture ministry, winter grain plantings are 96.3% complete, with about 5 million hectares sown out of the expected 5.19 million. Of that total, wheat is reportedly planted on 4.4 million hectares, or 97.2% of the estimated area. Notably, around 95% of Ukraine’s wheat output is winter wheat.

  • Wheat prices in Brazil reportedly increased last week, partly due to speculation that the government might make domestic purchases. Current prices are said to be below the government’s minimum thresholds of 78.51 BRL per 60 kg bag in the south and 80.00 BRL in other regions. The federal government has indicated it may purchase up to 200,000 mt of wheat from producers in Rio Grande do Sul.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy is targeting the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s apparent rejection of the potential reversal on Nov. 11 and close near 552, suggests that lower prices may be ahead in the near term, though they may find support in the 521 – 514 area. Should the market turn around, heavy resistance remains between 580 and 586 before they can continue to higher.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market’s close below 547 support suggests prices may be at risk of testing major support near the 527 ¼ August low.  A reversal back higher may still encounter heavy resistance near 580 – 583 before testing the 593 – 603 resistance area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The close below 583 in the December contract puts the market at risk of trading down towards major support near the August low of 563. If a bullish catalyst enters the scene to turn prices higher, heavy resistance remains between 615 and 624.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Brazil, N. Argentina 2- week forecast precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-11 End of Day: Corn and Beans Fail to Extend Friday’s Gains as Wheat Breaks Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures failed to gain traction to the upside and settled mid-range, weighed down by lower wheat, strength in the US dollar, and a still sizable US supply.

  • Soybeans closed at the low end of its range following another failed test to stay above the 100-day moving average. Carryover weakness from a bearish reversal in soybean oil, and a lower close in meal contributed to the day’s decline.

  • Much needed rain over winter wheat areas this weekend triggered early selling across the wheat complex. While the complex closed lower overall, December contracts for all three classes settled in the upper-middle of their respective ranges.

  • To see updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity for catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market has traded back towards the top of the 397 – 434 range that it has been in since September. If you missed any of our three previous sales recommendations from earlier in the season, this rally represents a good opportunity to begin to catch up.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished lower on the day, pressured by heavy overall supplies, a strong US dollar and selling pressure in the wheat and crude oil markets.

  • December corn futures failed to find some follow through buying after Friday’s USDA report. Despite the reduced yield and production, the corn carry out was only 8 mb below market expectations, which limited the market’s upside. Prices did hold support at 425 in the December contract, finishing in the middle of Friday’s price range.

  • With the Veteran’s Day Holiday, the USDA will release weekly export inspections on Tuesday. The expectation for those shipments is for them to be in the 700,000 to 900,000 mt range. 

  • The corn market may be limited as it moves closer to the First Notice Day for December futures, and producers holding December basis contracts will need to either price those bushels or roll them to the March contract

  • Managed funds have become long in the corn market for the first time since August 2023. They built a long position of approximately 22,000 contracts, completely erasing the record short position they held this past summer.

Above: December corn tested the October high and retreated, signaling resistance in that area. A breakout above this level set the market up for a move toward 475, with potential resistance between 450 and 455. Below the market, If prices  retreat, support below the market may come in between 415 and 409.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 39,746 contracts between Oct. 30 – Nov. 5, bringing their total position to a net long 22,043 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. For those with capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after trading higher in the morning, which brought January futures up to the 100-day moving average before sliding back for the second consecutive day. Friday’s WASDE report was friendly with a cut to yield and a decrease in ending stocks. Despite these cuts, the US is still on track to produce a very large soybean crop.

  • This morning, soy products initially moved in opposite directions, with soybean meal rising and soybean oil falling. However, both slipped throughout the day and closed lower, with soybean oil posting larger losses. Recent increases in crush have met demand for soybean oil but have created a surplus of soybean meal.

  • Friday’s WASDE report showed soybean yields dropping more than expected, from 53.1 bpa last month to 51.7 bpa. As a result, total production declined to 4.461 billion bushels from 4.582 billion, with 24/25 US ending stocks falling to 470 million bushels from 550 million. Export demand was reduced by 25 million bushels despite strong recent sales, and global ending stocks also dropped, coming in below the lower range of analyst estimates.

  • Friday’s CFTC report indicated that, as of November 5, funds had bought back just 2,114 contracts, leaving them net short 70,112 contracts. It’s estimated that funds have bought back an additional 28,000 contracts since then.

Above: The breakout above 1018 on Nov. 7, suggests the market has the potential to test the September highs near 1070. Before reaching that point, prices may encounter nearby resistance between 1044 and 1050. If prices retreat, initial support may be found near the 50-day moving average and again near 975.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,114 contracts between Oct. 30 – Nov. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 70,112 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was under pressure today and, though it still posted a negative close, managed to finish well above session lows. Much of the weakness stemmed from good rains that moved across the US winter wheat belt over the weekend, helping to alleviate drought conditions and improve crop prospects. Adding to the weakness, the US Dollar Index pushed to a new near-term high today.

  • According to SovEcon, Russia exported 770,000 mt of grain last week, with wheat accounting for 720,000 mt of that total. This was well below the 1.12 mmt of wheat exported the prior week. Additionally, IKAR reported that Russian wheat export values ended last week at $228 per mt, down from $232 the week before and well below the government’s suggested $245 price floor.

  • Ukrainian grain exports for the first week of November rose about 5% from the previous year to 902,000 mt, according to the country’s agriculture ministry. Since the season began on July 1, total grain exports have reached 15.3 mmt, up 52% from last year. Wheat alone accounts for 8 mmt of that total, which is an increase of 60% from last year.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy is targeting the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The break below 558 and close just above indicates that support may still lie between 558 and 552. If prices remain above 558 and rally, they may target the 600 – 617 area, though heavy resistance remains between 580 and 586. Otherwise, a close below 552 may suggest further weakness and a test of 521 – 514 support area.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 391 contracts between Oct. 30 – Nov. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 30,781 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The break below 561 appears to have found initial support around 547. Although a close below this level could lead to a market test of support near the August low of 527. Should prices turn back higher, they may still encounter heavy resistance near 580 – 583 before testing the 593 – 603 resistance area.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,920 contracts between Oct. 30 – Nov. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 14,080 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The market break below 595 may have found support near 583. If this support holds and prices turnaround, they may still find heavy resistance between 615 and 624, a rally above which could set the market up to test the October highs with intermediate resistance near 637. Otherwise, a retreat through 583, could lead to a test of the 563 August low.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,127 contracts between Oct. 30 – Nov. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 17,108 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Brazil, N. Argentina 1 week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-8 End of Day: Corn and Beans Settle Higher Following Today’s USDA Report; Wheat Mostly Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures continued their climb today for the sixth consecutive day, with help from friendly yield numbers from the USDA and continued strong demand. While December corn closed strong it failed to close above September’s high.

  • Soybeans closed higher on the day with modest gains, despite briefly dipping below unchanged. Much lower-than-expected US soybean ending stocks lent support, along with a third consecutive day of gains in soybean oil. However, lower soybean meal weighed on beans, as it continued to consolidate and closed lower.

  • The wheat complex closed mostly lower on the day, as all three classes remain in a sideways trend with little fresh bullish news to trade and a neutral USDA report that came in as expected.

  • To see updated US and South American temperature and precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity for catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market has traded back towards the top of the 397 – 434 range that it has been in since September. If you missed any of our three previous sales recommendations from earlier in the season, this rally represents a good opportunity to begin to catch up.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures rose for the sixth consecutive day, driven by steady demand and a larger-than-expected reduction in corn yield in Friday’s USDA report. December corn ended the week up 16 ½ cents.

  • Corn futures used a larger than expected cut in corn yield in Friday’s USDA report and consistent demand to push prices higher for the third consecutive day. For the week, December corn finished 16 ½ cents higher.

  • The USDA lowered their projected corn yield by 0.7 bpa in Friday’s USDA crop production report to 183.1 bpa. The lower yield was a reflection of the dry weather at the end of the growing season and during harvest. 

  • Despite a good demand tone, the USDA left current demand projections unchanged given the early time of the marketing year. The reduced production lowered corn carryout projections to 1.938 billion bushels, which was slightly below analyst expectations and the fifth month in a row that carryout has declined.

  • Positive gains in the commodity markets may have been limited on talk the President-elect Trump was asking Robert Lighthizer to resume his role as head of US trade policy. Robert Lighthizer is known for having a tough stance when working with China and a supporter of trade tariffs.

  • On Friday, the USDA announced another flash corn sale of 200,480 mt (7.9 mb) to unknown destinations for the current marketing year.

Above: December corn tested the October high and retreated, signaling resistance in that area. A breakout above this level set the market up for a move toward 475, with potential resistance between 450 and 455. Below the market, If prices  retreat, support below the market may come in between 415 and 409.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. For those with capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher following a volatile day of trade. The WASDE report turned out to be friendly for soybeans, which saw gains of as much as 18 cents, but prices faded into negative territory before recovering into the close. Soybean meal and oil continued their opposing trends with meal lower and soybean oil higher.

  • Today’s WASDE report saw soybean yields fall much more than expected to 51.7 bpa from 53.1 bpa last month. Total production fell to 4.461 billion bushels from 4.582 bb as a result, with 24/25 US ending stocks falling to 470 million bushels from 550 mb last month. Export demand was reduced by 25 mb despite strong recent export sales. World ending stocks were lowered as well and were below the lower range of analyst estimates.

  • After the USDA report, January soybeans rallied up to their 100-day moving average for the first time the beginning of June. While the following pullback may have been technical, it coincided with the timing of Donald Trump asking protectionist Robert Lighthizer to run the US trade policy. Lighthizer has been tough on China which may have concerned traders today and brought caution to the rally.

  • For the week, January soybeans gained 36 ½ cents to 1030 ¼ while new crop November 2025 gained 20 ¼ cents to 1052 ½. December soybean meal managed to gain $0.90 on the week, ending at $296.20 while December soybean oil gained 2.47 cents to 48.77 cents.

Above: The breakout above 1018 on Nov. 7, suggests the market has the potential to test the September highs near 1070. Before reaching that point, prices may encounter nearby resistance between 1044 and 1050. If prices retreat, initial support may be found near the 50-day moving average and again near 975.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a day of two-sided trade, wheat closed mixed in the Chicago contracts but posted losses across the board for Kansas City and Minneapolis. With little supportive news from the USDA and a rebound in the US Dollar index today, wheat had limited reasons to rally.

  • Today’s WASDE report was generally neutral for wheat, as expected. US 24/25 ending stocks were raised slightly from 812 million bushels to 815 mb. Global 23/24 carryout was also increased a touch, from 266.2 million metric tons to 266.3 mmt. For 24/25, global carryout was reduced a tad from 257.7 mmt to 257.6 mmt. Additionally, US wheat production was unchanged at 1.971 billion bushels and exports were also untouched at 825 mb.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat harvest is now 12.1% complete, an increase of 4.4% from a week ago. They left total production unchanged at 18.6 mmt, above today’s USDA estimate of 17.5 mmt, which was reduced from the October estimate of 18.0 mmt.

  • The USDA did lower their Brazilian wheat production estimate in today’s report, from 9.0 mmt in October to 8.5 mmt today. However, analyst StoneX is even lower with their projection of 7.5 mmt, compared to their previous guess of 7.9 mmt.

  • According to Russia’s prime minister, the country’s grain harvest has reached 128 mmt, with the total grain crop estimated at 130 mmt. The Russian agriculture minister also projected the 2024 wheat harvest at 83 mmt. However, today, the USDA estimated Russian wheat production slightly lower, at 81.5 mmt, with Russian wheat exports unchanged at 48 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy is targeting the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The swift turnaround on October 29 suggests initial support below the market may rest near 558. A close below this level could put the market at risk of trading down toward the 521 – 514 support area, with intermediate support possibly around 544. Initial resistance lies near 580 with more significant resistance around 595 – 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market has largely been sideways since rallying off 561 support on Oct. 29. A close above 583 could set the market up to rally toward the 593 – 603 resistance area around the 200-day moving average. Otherwise, a break below 561 could find minor support near 555, with major support around the August low of 527.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Since late October Minneapolis wheat has mostly traded between 615 overhead and 595 down below. A close below 595 could lead to further weakness with prices trading towards the August low of 563, with potential support near 583. A rally above the 615 – 624 resistance area could set the market up for a rally towards the October highs with intermediate resistance near 637.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.