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12-6 End of Day: Corn Closes Firm; Beans and the Wheat Complex Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Strong demand continues to drive the corn market, which closed higher for the second consecutive day following Thursday’s bullish reversal.

  • Soybeans continued to drift sideways and closed mixed with strong demand lending support to the front month contracts, while the prospect of a large South American crop weighed on the back months.

  • The wheat complex took a breather following yesterday’s run-up with a mixed close. The worst Russian crop conditions in 20 years lent support, while the Southern Hemisphere harvest limited gains.

  • To see the updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, and 7-day total precipitation for South America scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We are now in the window when seasonal opportunities tend to improve and we anticipate posting target ranges for new sales soon, but they could be as late as early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices rose for the second straight session, with March futures up 7 cents on the week, closing near weekly highs.

  • Strong export sales and ethanol demand have supported prices since August lows, but year-end farmer selling may limit rallies.

  • Favorable cash and basis levels persist as producers hold onto stored supplies, a trend likely to continue into early 2025.

  • The USDA’s December WASDE report on Tuesday is expected to show higher export and ethanol demand, reducing corn carryout to 1.906 billion bushels.

The corn market was once again testing the 442 level; a close above this area could lead to a run towards 465. If prices fail to break through to the upside and retreat, a close below 422 support could put the market at risk of trading to 410.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • This is the period when seasonal opportunities typically improve, and we plan to post target ranges for new sales soon, though it could be as late as early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed mixed, continuing to consolidate ahead of next week’s USDA report, as supportive demand clashed with strong South American crop prospects. Opposing trends in soybean oil (higher) and meal (lower) added to the market’s lack of direction.

  • Early trade estimates for Tuesday’s USDA report suggest minimal, if any, changes to US, South American, or global soybean supply and demand figures.

  • The bull market story for soybeans remains strong US crush and export demand, while market bears remain focused on benign South American weather and large crop prospects.

  • With a burdensome world supply outlook, it might take a South American weather scare to move prices significantly higher.

The soybean market continues to trend sideways just above 975 support. Should the market close below there, it could be at risk of sliding toward the 940 support area near the August low. Conversely, if prices gain traction and rally, they could resistance near the 50-day moving average and 1013 before retesting 1045.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed mixed, with small losses in Chicago and Minneapolis but a slight gain in Kansas City. Matif wheat and the US Dollar Index offered little direction, trading both sides of unchanged.

  • Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report is expected to show minimal changes for wheat, with U.S. 24/25 carryout projected at 816 mb and global 23/24 and 24/25 stocks steady at 266.3 mmt and 257.6 mmt, respectively.

  • Australian and Argentine wheat harvests may be capping prices. Argentina’s harvest is 48.1% complete, up from 38.7% last week, with production estimated at 18.6 mmt, compared to 15.1 mmt last year.

  • French soft wheat planting reached 96% by Dec. 2, ahead of last year’s 87% and above the five-year average of 93%, with 86% rated good or very good, according to FranceAgriMer.

  • Russia’s 25/26 wheat crop is forecast at 81.5 mmt, with estimates ranging from 77.4 to 85.6 mmt. Conditions are reportedly the worst since 2003 due to adverse weather.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat continues to hover just above support at the 540 level. If a bullish trigger emerges, pushing prices through the 50- and 200-day moving averages and closing above 586, it could be poised to retest the 617 area. Conversely, if it slides lower and closes below 536, it may retreat toward the 521–514 support zone.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

March KC wheat remains rangebound between 536 and 577. A close below this level could put the market at risk of testing the August low of 527 ¼. If on the other hand a bullish trigger emerges, prices could encounter resistance near 567 before re-testing 577.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept. ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Since late November, Minneapolis wheat has drifted lower, finding support just above the March contract low of 584 ½. If the market closes below this level, it could risk trading down to the 563 support area. Conversely, if a bullish trigger pushes prices higher and close above 613, they could be poised to test the October highs near 655.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Brazil and N. Argentina 7-day total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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12-5 End of Day: Grains Higher Across the Board Thursday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Buying strength, bolstered by wheat market momentum and robust export sales, pushed March corn to its highest close in seven sessions.

  • Soybeans were able to reverse yesterday’s losses, adding double digit gains in January futures today. Strong export sales and strength across the grain complex helped aid in the rally.

  • Wheat posted double-digit gains in Chicago and Kansas City, with Minneapolis close behind, supported by a weaker dollar and spillover strength from corn and soybeans.

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor as well as the South American GRACE-Based Root Zone Soil Moisture Drought Indicator courtesy of NASA, University of Nebraska-Lincoln scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We are now in the window when seasonal opportunities tend to improve and we anticipate posting target ranges for new sales soon, but they could be as late as early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Buying strength stepped into the corn market supported by strength in the wheat market, and strong export sales on Thursday morning. March corn closed at its highest level in the past seven sessions.

  • March corn futures posted a bullish reversal today, trading above and below Wednesday’s range before closing near the session’s high. This may trigger additional technical buying overnight.

  • The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Sales remained strong as new sales totaled 68.2 mb, which was above trade expectations. Mexico continues to be the largest buyer of U.S. corn. Total corn sales are up 33% YOY as the overall sales pace remains strong.

  • Tuesday’s December WASDE report may reveal stronger corn demand for exports and ethanol, likely reducing carryout for the sixth consecutive month.

The corn market has, so far, held support near the 425 area and the 200-day moving average (ma), and could potentially retest the 442 area with the possibility of trading towards 465.  If prices break through and close below the 50-day moving average (ma), near 422, they run the risk falling further and testing more major support near the 410 area and 100-day ma.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • This is the period when seasonal opportunities typically improve, and we plan to post target ranges for new sales soon, though it could be as late as early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans recovered all of yesterday’s losses, closing near the high end of their range. Export sales were strong, and the dollar dipped lower today, both things being supportive of soybeans. Soybean meal finished the day just slightly lower while soybean oil traded higher and led soybeans.

  • USDA reported soybean sales at the high end of expectations — 85.0 mb for 24/25 and 200 metric tons for 25/26. Last week’s shipments of 89.2 mb far exceeded the 28.5 mb needed weekly to meet USDA projections, with top buyers including China, unknown destinations, and Spain.

  • The incoming administration’s potential policies on biofuel use in the US may be preventing soybean oil from rallying to the same degree as palm oil. It is unlikely that this will have any long-term effect on demand, as global biofuel use has trended significantly higher over recent years.

  • Significant rains continue to benefit Brazil’s soybean crop, though excessive moisture could pose risks later. Production estimates remain on the rise.

The soybean market continues to trend sideways just above 975 support. Should the market close below there, it could be at risk of sliding toward the 940 support area near the August low. Conversely, if prices gain traction and rally, they could resistance near the 50-day moving average and 1013 before retesting 1045.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a good day, with double digit gains in both Chicago and Kansas City, with Minneapolis not far behind. Wheat was aided by a sharply lower US Dollar Index and spillover support from corn and soybean futures.

  • USDA reported 13.9 mb of wheat sales for 24/25 last week. While weekly shipments of 11.8 mb were behind the 16.5 mb needed to meet the 825 mb goal, commitments are up 19% year-over-year at 571 mb.

  • Drought currently affects 29% of U.S. winter wheat acres, up 1% from last week but sharply improved from 62% in late October. Favorable conditions may cap price gains.

  • Statistics Canada raised its wheat production estimate to 34.96 mmt, slightly above the 34.3 mmt trade guess and aligning with USDA’s 35 mmt forecast. Spring wheat accounts for 26 mmt of the total.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat continues to hover just above support at the 540 level. If a bullish trigger emerges, pushing prices through the 50- and 200-day moving averages and closing above 586, it could be poised to retest the 617 area. Conversely, if it slides lower and closes below 536, it may retreat toward the 521–514 support zone.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Since failing to trade above the 50-day moving average (ma), March KC wheat has trended lower and is testing the bottom of the 536 – 577 range. A close below this level could put the market at risk of testing the August low of 527 ¼. Should a bullish catalyst emerge to push prices higher, they could encounter resistance near 567 before re-testing 577.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept. ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Since late November, Minneapolis wheat has drifted lower, finding support just above the March contract low of 584 ½. If the market closes below this level, it could risk trading down to the 563 support area. Conversely, if a bullish trigger pushes prices higher and close above 613, they could be poised to test the October highs near 655.

Other Charts / Weather

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12-4 End of Day: Wheat Reverses to Close Mixed, with Corn and Soybeans Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Weekly ethanol production exceeded USDA projections but fell short of expectations, leaving the corn market under pressure. March futures settled near session lows, as they consolidate around 430.

  • Soybeans closed lower on the day but off session lows, supported by a higher close in meal, which reversed mid-session on potential short covering and a drier pattern ahead for Argentina.

  • Soybean oil traded lower again, pressuring soybeans, as it tracked weaker Malaysian palm oil and faced additional pressure from the likely delay in 45Z biofuel tax credit guidance.

  • The wheat complex rebounded off support near March contract lows across all three wheat classes, aided by rumors of quality concerns over Australia’s wheat crop due to excessive rain.

  • To see the updated US precipitation forecast and South American 7-day total precipitation, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We are now in the window when seasonal opportunities tend to improve and we anticipate posting target ranges for new sales soon, but they could be as late as early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Overall, the negative tone of the commodity space weighed on corn futures, as corn prices consolidate around the 430 area on the most active March contract.

  • Ethanol production fell to 1.073 mbd (315 million gallons/day) last week, down from the previous week’s record of 329 million gallons but still above USDA targets. About 108.4 mb of corn was used for production.

  • Uncertainty over clean fuel tax credit guidance (45Z policy) persists, with mixed reports on whether it will be in place before President Biden’s term ends. Traders are likely taking a wait and see approach to this potential policy.

  • USDA corn export sales, due Thursday, are expected to range from 750,000–1.5 mmt for last week, following the previous week’s total of 1.062 mmt.

  • Brazilian producers are ahead on 2025 Safrinha corn inputs, with 70% secured, driven by favorable exchange rates. Increased second-crop planting remains possible with current weather conditions.

The corn market has, so far, held support near the 425 area and the 200-day moving average (ma), and could potentially retest the 442 area with the possibility of trading towards 465.  If prices break through and close below the 50-day moving average (ma), near 422, they run the risk falling further and testing more major support near the 410 area and 100-day ma.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • This is the period when seasonal opportunities typically improve, and we plan to post target ranges for new sales soon, though it could be as late as early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower, erasing all of yesterday’s gains and more, as the market continues to trade sideways. Favorable South American weather and rising production estimates weighed on prices. Soybean meal finished higher, while soybean oil tracked weaker palm oil prices.

  • This morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 30,000 metric tons of soybean oil to South Korea for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year, highlighting strong demand potential with soybean oil currently at a steep discount to palm oil.

  • In November, Malaysian palm oil inventories fell 4.3% to 1.8 million tons, while crude palm oil production declined 5.6% to 1.7 million tons. This has been supportive to palm oil prices, but soybean oil has been following those moves less closely.

  • Some pressure in the soybean oil market may be coming from the incoming administration’s potential policies on biofuel use in the US, and the lack of current guidance on the 45Z policy. It is unlikely that these will have any long term effect on demand as global biofuel use has trended significantly higher over recent years.

The soybean market continues to trend sideways just above 975 support. Should the market close below there, it could be at risk of sliding toward the 940 support area near the August low. Conversely, if prices gain traction and rally, they could resistance near the 50-day moving average and 1013 before retesting 1045.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat clawed back to a positive close in Chicago and Kansas City futures, while Minneapolis posted small losses. Matif wheat’s mixed close and the consolidating US Dollar Index offered little direction.

  • Rumors of wheat quality concerns from excessive rains in southeastern Australia, despite projections of a larger crop than last year, may have supported the US market.

  • Ukraine’s 24/25 wheat shipments reached 8.96 mmt from July to November, up from 5.8 mmt last year. Despite elevated Black Sea tensions, grain exports remain largely unaffected.

  • Statistics Canada will release updated wheat production estimates tomorrow, with an average pre-report projection of 34.3 mmt, matching August’s forecast and 4.1% above last year’s crop.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat continues to hover just above support at the 540 level. If a bullish trigger emerges, pushing prices through the 50- and 200-day moving averages and closing above 586, it could be poised to retest the 617 area. Conversely, if it slides lower and closes below 536, it may retreat toward the 521–514 support zone.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Since failing to trade above the 50-day moving average (ma), March KC wheat has trended lower and is testing the bottom of the 536 – 577 range. A close below this level could put the market at risk of testing the August low of 527 ¼. Should a bullish catalyst emerge to push prices higher, they could encounter resistance near 567 before re-testing 577.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept. ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Since late November, Minneapolis wheat has drifted lower, finding support just above the March contract low of 584 ½. If the market closes below this level, it could risk trading down to the 563 support area. Conversely, if a bullish trigger pushes prices higher and close above 613, they could be poised to test the October highs near 655.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil 7-day total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 7-day total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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12-3 End of Day: Beans and Wheat Close Firm, While Corn Slips

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market settled near the low end of its 5-cent range (March) with minor losses, struggling to gain upward traction due to improved South American crop prospects and a lack of 45Z guidance.

  • Soybeans rallied on reports of record crush totals that were posted for the month of October. The strong demand news lent support to the front month soybean contracts while deferreds lagged.

  • Soybean oil rallied on record October crush numbers, which left bean oil stocks below estimates and last month’s levels, indicating strong demand. Meal also closed higher, supported by a drier Argentina forecast.

  • Wheat settled mostly higher with small gains across the board, led by Minneapolis. Carryover strength from higher Matif wheat was tempered by projections of a large Australian wheat crop potentially exceeding last year’s.

  • To see the updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We are now in the window when seasonal opportunities tend to improve and we anticipate posting target ranges for new sales soon, but they could be as late as early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished soft on Tuesday as prices failed to hold early session gains. The lack of direction on biofuel tax credits and increased South American corn production estimates limited market strength.

  • Reuters reported that the Biden administration will not finalize clean fuel tax credit guidance, known as the 45Z policy, before his term ends. The uncertainty of this key biofuels initiative’s likely kept pressure on the corn market.

  • South American weather conditions remain highly favorable for soybeans and corn in Brazil and Argentina. Independent analysts suggest an additional 200–250 mb of combined South American production could be possible next crop year if conditions persist.

  • Managed Money has reduced its recent net long position on the Commitment of Trader’s report. As of Nov. 26, managed funds were net long 97,442 contracts of corn, a reduction of 17,186 contracts.

The corn market has, so far, held support near the 425 area and the 200-day moving average (ma), and could potentially retest the 442 area with the possibility of trading towards 465.  If prices break through and close below the 50-day moving average (ma), near 422, they run the risk falling further and testing more major support near the 410 area and 100-day ma.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 26. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 17,186 contracts between Nov. 20 – 26, bringing their total position to a net long 97,442 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • This is the period when seasonal opportunities typically improve, and we plan to post target ranges for new sales soon, though it could be as late as early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher, recovering all of yesterday’s losses and more, with front-month contracts leading gains. Soybean meal and oil also ended higher, with oil leading.

  • Brazilian production estimates remain lofty, with Celeres at 170.8 mmt, StoneX at 170 mmt, and AgroConsult at 172.2 mmt. Exports are expected to rise by 4 mmt, supported by favorable weather conditions.

  • The USDA Fats and Oils report showed a record October soybean crush of 216 million bushels, exceeding trade estimates. High crush levels have pressured soybean meal prices due to excess supply, while lower-than-expected bean oil stocks signal strong demand.

  • Yesterday’s CFTC report showed funds as of Nov. 26 as net sellers of 13,771 soybean contracts, increasing their net short position to 81,472 contracts. Historically, funds shift to buying soybeans in December through year-end.

The soybean market continues to trend sideways just above 975 support. Should the market close below there, it could be at risk of sliding toward the 940 support area near the August low. Conversely, if prices gain traction and rally, they could resistance near the 50-day moving average and 1013 before retesting 1045.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 26. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 13,771 contracts between Nov. 20 – 26, bringing their total position to a net short 81,472 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed mostly higher across the three classes, though early strength faded by session’s end. Gains from higher Paris milling wheat were limited by projections that Australia’s crop could exceed last year’s by 5–6 mmt.

  • According to the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report, as of Nov. 26 managed funds sold nearly 7,600 Chicago wheat contracts, and 1,300 KC wheat contracts, increasing their total net short position to a four-month high of 120,000 contracts.

  • India’s Meteorological Department forecasts a warmer-than-average winter, which could threaten wheat yields. December–February temperatures are expected to be above normal, impacting the winter wheat crop that thrives in cooler conditions.

  • Australia’s wheat production is projected to rise 23% to 31.9 mmt in the fiscal year ending June 2025, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics. This would be 20% above the 10-year average, driven by production increases of 75% in New South Wales and 40% in Western Australia, its largest growing regions.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Front month Chicago wheat remains in a broad trading range between 536 down below and 586 up top. If the market can trade through the 50 and 200-day moving averages and close above 586 it could be poised to retest the 617 area. Whereas a close below 536 could put the market at risk of trading to the 521 – 514 support area.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 26. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 7,572 contracts between Nov. 20 – 26, bringing their total position to a net short 59,118 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Since failing to trade above the 50-day moving average (ma), March KC wheat has trended lower and is testing the bottom of the 536 – 577 range. A close below this level could put the market at risk of testing the August low of 527 ¼. Should a bullish catalyst emerge to push prices higher, they could encounter resistance near 567 before re-testing 577.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 26. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,286 contracts between Nov. 20 – 26, bringing their total position to a net short 30,661 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept. ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Since rolling to the March contract, front month Minneapolis wheat has been capped by resistance near the 50-day moving average around 613. A close above this point could put the market on track to test the October highs near 655, with potential resistance around the 200-day moving average. Should prices slide below 584 they could then be at risk of retesting the 563 area.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 26. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 225 contracts between Nov. 20 – 26, bringing their total position to a net short 30,227 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 7-day total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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12-2 End of Day: Grain Markets Close Mixed on Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market closed fractionally mixed, near the middle of its modest 5 ¼ cent range, after a quiet day of two-sided trade. Light buying supported the December contract, with few deliveries reported.

  • Soybeans settled lower, largely due to expectations of a large South American crop, despite a flash sale to China. However, the market rebounded from session lows to close mid-range.

  • Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower, likely contributing to the soft close in soybeans. While bean oil mostly consolidated within last week’s range, meal found buying interest near support.

  • The wheat complex closed mostly lower across all three classes after a day of two-sided trade. Prices fluctuated around unchanged, caught between higher Matif wheat and a surge in the US dollar.

  • To see the updated US and South American Seven Day precipitation forecasts and the US Seasonal Drought Outlook, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We are now in the window when seasonal opportunities tend to improve and we anticipate posting target ranges for new sales soon, but they could be as late as early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market opened the month of December with quiet, mixed trade. Light buying supported the December contract that is in delivery, while the most active March futures traded within a narrow 5 ¼ cent range.

  • The December contract entered delivery with 222 contracts delivered, a relatively small number that likely helped support prices.

  • USDA weekly corn inspections totaled 36.8 mb, bringing cumulative inspections 31% above last year. The key shipping window for corn still lies ahead during the March–May time frame.

  • Brazil’s crop planting remains ahead of schedule, with soybeans 91% planted and the first corn crop 94% complete. Timely soybean planting keeps producers on track for the Safrinha corn crop, hitting the optimal weather windows for development.

The corn market has, so far, held support near the 425 area and the 200-day moving average (ma), and could potentially retest the 442 area with the possibility of trading towards 465.  If prices break through and close below the 50-day moving average (ma), near 422, they run the risk falling further and testing more major support near the 410 area and 100-day ma.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • This is the period when seasonal opportunities typically improve, and we plan to post target ranges for new sales soon, though it could be as late as early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower but recovered from their lowest prices earlier in the day that saw the January contract down to 977 ½. There was a flash sale reported this morning, but the trade seemed more focused on the excellent growing conditions in Brazil. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.

  • The USDA reported that 134,000 mt of soybeans were sold to China for the 24/25 marketing year. There have been multiple sales of soybeans throughout the past few weeks indicating good demand, but analysts are also expecting record production out Brazil on top of the large US crop.

  • Soybean inspections were strong for the week ending Thursday, November 28, totaling 76.7 mb, bringing 24/25 inspections to 801 mb, up 16% from last year. The USDA projects exports at 1.825 bb, a 7% increase year-over-year.

  • Brazil’s soybean crop is in excellent condition, with Agroconsult projecting a record 172.2 million bushels. AgRural estimates 91% of the crop has been planted.

January soybeans continue to drift and test the 975 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of receding to the 940 support area around the August low. Should the 975 area hold turning prices back higher, they may find resistance between the 50-day moving average and 1014, before retesting the 1045 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a day of two-sided trade, wheat closed mostly lower in all three US classes. Gains from higher Matif wheat futures were limited by a surge in the US Dollar Index, driven by concerns over a potential collapse of the French economy.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections reached 10.9 mb, bringing 24/25 totals to 404 mb, up 32% from last year. Inspections exceed the USDA’s projected pace, with total exports forecast at 825 mb, a 17% year-over-year increase.

  • Russian officials approved an 11 mmt wheat export quota for mid-February through June, down from 29 mmt last year. The smaller quota reflects a reduced crop and record early-season exports.

  • China recently approved Argentine wheat imports, with potential sales marking the first since the 1990s. Argentina is on track for a large harvest, including a 3.9 mmt wheat crop in Buenos Aires province (up 18% year-over-year) and a total wheat crop of 17.5 mmt, up from 15.9 mmt last year.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Front month Chicago wheat remains in a broad trading range between 536 down below and 586 up top. If the market can trade through the 50 and 200-day moving averages and close above 586 it could be poised to retest the 617 area. Whereas a close below 536 could put the market at risk of trading to the 521 – 514 support area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Since failing to trade above the 50-day moving average (ma), March KC wheat has trended lower and is testing the bottom of the 536 – 577 range. A close below this level could put the market at risk of testing the August low of 527 ¼. Should a bullish catalyst emerges to push prices higher, they could encounter resistance near 567 before re-testing 577.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept. ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Since rolling to the March contract, front month Minneapolis wheat has been capped by resistance near the 50-day moving average around 613. A close above this point could put the market on track to test the October highs near 655, with potential resistance around the 200-day moving average. Should prices slide below 584 they could then be at risk of retesting the 563 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-29 End of Day: Corn Higher, Soybeans Quiet and Wheat Lower into the Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures ended November on a high note finding buying interest to end the week and the month.

  • Despite marketing-year high export sales for soybeans last week, futures prices were relatively muted to end the holiday-shortened trading week.

  • Wheat futures stumbled into the weekend closing at or near their lows for the week.

  • To see the updated US Seven Day Moisture Outlook and the Week 1 South American Precipitation Forecast, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw buying strength to end November as the December and March contracts saw moderate gains. For the week, December corn finished the week approximately 2 cents lower, but nearly 9 cents off the lows for the week.

  • Today was First Notice Day for December corn, and prices bounced as long positions have been removed from the market. Open interest in the December contract has gone from 270,000+ contracts on Monday to less than 20,000 contracts on the open today. With Dec in delivery, traders will shift focus to the most actively traded March contract.

  • The USDA released weekly export sales on Friday morning. The USDA reported new corn sales of 1.06 MMT (41.8 mb) for the week ending November 21. This was at the low end of expectations. Total corn sales have been strong, trending 33% above last year’s levels.

  • Export demand and ethanol production continue to support corn markets, helping prices recover from recent lows and providing a foundation heading into year-end.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day with front-month gains and deferred-month losses, reflecting a bull spread. Limited carry in the market signals expectations of abundant supplies next year. Soybean meal was lower to end the day while soybean oil finished higher. Strong soybean crush numbers continue to create a glut of bean meal.

  • Today’s Export Sales report was strong for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 91.5 million bushels of soybean export sales for the 24/25 marketing year and 0.7 mb for 25/26. This was above the high end of analyst estimates. Last week’s export shipments of 76.5 mb were well above the 29.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and Germany.

  • For the week, January soybeans gained 7-1/4 cents to $9.90-3/4 while March only gained 5 cents. January soybean meal gained $1.70 to $293.20 and January soybean oil lost 0.08 cents to 41.76 cents.

  • The USDA announced a large daily export sale for soybeans before the session this morning. The USDA announced sales of 840,000 MT (30.8 mb) and 151,700 MT (5.6 mb) of soybeans for unknown destinations for the 2024-25 marketing year.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat ended weaker after mixed trading, following Matif wheat’s third consecutive decline. However, the falling US Dollar Index and oversold technicals may provide support at current levels.

  • The USDA reported 13.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, with weekly shipments at 15.9 mb, just below the 16.5 mb needed to meet the 825 mb export goal. Commitments are up 20% year-over-year at 557 mb.

  • As reported by Tass, Russian wheat exports are expected to his 25.3 mmt so far this season. That is 1.7 mmt higher than last year. In addition, they are projecting total Russian wheat exports this season at 41.7 mmt.

  • According to FranceAgriMer, an estimated 93% of the French soft wheat crop has been planted as of Monday. This is ahead of last year’s 81% pace for the same time period and is also slightly ahead of the 91% five-year average. Of the crop, 87% are rated good or very good, slightly below last year’s 88%.

  • The European Commission raised its 24/25 EU grain production forecast to 256.9 mmt from 255.6 mmt in October, while soft wheat was lowered slightly to 112.3 mmt. Durum wheat estimates remain unchanged at 7.2 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept. ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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11-27 End of Day: Soybeans Higher, Corn and Wheat Lower into Thanksgiving

ByGrain Market Insider

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A fifth consecutive day of liquidation hit December corn futures on Wednesday ahead of First Notice Day on Friday. Continued weakness in wheat futures added pressure to corn.

  • Despite lower corn, wheat, and soybean oil futures, soybeans closed higher, with soybean meal futures also rebounding from recent lows.

  • Wheat futures fell across the board ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, retreating toward contract lows. Prices remained unaffected by the US dollar’s drop to its lowest level since early November.

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor and the Week 2 South American Precipitation Forecast, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The December corn market finished lower for the fifth straight session. First Notice Day on Friday and basis contract pricing likely pressured the market, leading to the lowest close since November 4. Open interest in the December contract has dropped by over 200,000 contracts since the start of the week as traders are moving aside long positions.

  • The US dollar made a strong correction lower on Thursday as the prospect of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates sent profit taking in the Japanese yen versus US dollar trade. Expectations are for the dollar to remain firm, but the setback could help support commodity prices.

  • With President Trump looking to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico imports as part of his Day 1 initiative, Mexico’s President Sheinbaum warned of retaliatory tariffs to counter. Mexico is the largest export buyer of US corn this marketing year.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Friday morning, delayed due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Corn sales have been strong to start the marketing year, but slowing as higher prices and strong dollar has hurt competitiveness. The market will be watching to see if this trend will continue.

Above: The corn market became overbought and drifted back to the 425 area, if prices break through and close below the 50-day moving average (ma) they run the risk falling further and testing more major support near the 410 area and 100-day ma. If this 425 – 420 area holds prices could retest the 442 area with the potential of trading towards 465.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher ahead of Thanksgiving, diverging from weaker corn and wheat markets. Gains in soybean meal offset a sharp 4.19% drop in soybean oil, which followed palm oil lower. This contrasted with yesterday’s soybean oil rally sparked by potential import tariffs on China’s used cooking oil.

  • This morning, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year. Export sales have tapered off slightly over the past few weeks but remain firm.

  • Brazilian Crop analyst, Dr. Michael Cordonnier, raised his 24/25 Brazilian soybean production forecast by 2.0 mmt to 168.0 mmt, citing a strong start and ideal weather in key growing regions. The 10-15 day forecast for central Brazil has turned slightly drier which could add some weather premium if it continued.

  • Rain is expected over the next couple of weeks in the dry areas of Paraguay, Argentina, and southern Brazil, which could result in 2-4 inches of rain. This has some analysts projecting between 700-750 mb of increased soybean production for South America when compared to last year.

Above: January soybeans continue to drift and test the 975 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of receding to the 940 support area around the August low. Should the 975 area hold turning prices back higher, they may find resistance between the 50-day moving average and 1014, before retesting the 1045 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite the US Dollar Index plunging to a two-week low today, US wheat could not find any footing. Pressure stemmed from a lower trade for Matif wheat futures as well as the fact that First Notice Day for December grain contracts is Friday. With markets closed for Thanksgiving tomorrow, this may have added some selling pressure, as anyone long at the close today is at risk of delivery on Friday.

  • Weakness in wheat was also tied to improved US winter wheat conditions. Monday’s Crop Progress report rated 55% good-to-excellent—the highest in four years—bolstered by recent Southern Plains rainfall.

  • Ongoing harvest in the Southern Hemisphere may have also pressured wheat today. Both Australia and Argentina are harvesting, but Argentina’s peso has also reached a record low level, resulting in falling wheat export values.

  • According to their agricultural ministry, the export duty on Russian wheat has risen to 3,020.3 rubles per ton from 2,689.7 rubles previously, a 12.3% increase. The duty on corn also increased, while it fell for barley. These rates are said to be valid until December 3.

  • The European Commission has said that EU soft wheat exports as of November 24 have reached 9.2 mmt since the season began on July 1. This represents a 30% decrease from last year’s 13.1 mmt total. Top destinations for the wheat exports include Nigeria, the UK, and Egypt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front month Chicago wheat remains in a broad trading range between 536 down below and 586 up top. If the market can trade through the 50 and 200-day moving averages and close above 586 it could be poised to retest the 617 area. Whereas a close below 536 could put the market at risk of trading to the 521 – 514 support area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: March KC wheat found resistance just below the 50-day moving average, near 577. Should the market trade through this area and close above 583, it could be set to run towards the 593 – 603 area. Otherwise, close below 535 could press prices towards the August low of 527 ¼.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept. ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Since rolling to the March contract, front month Minneapolis wheat has been capped by resistance near the 50-day moving average around 613. A close above this point could put the market on track to test the October highs near 655, with potential resistance around the 200-day moving average. Should prices slide below 584 they could then be at risk of retesting the 563 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina two-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-26 End of Day: Corn Drifts Lower as Wheat Rebounds and Beans Close Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures settled lower for the fourth day in a row, likely pressured by the threat of proposed tariffs on Mexico, along with basis contract pricing ahead of Friday’s First Notice Day.

  • Soybeans closed mixed, as they continue to trade just above contract lows. Sharply higher soybean oil lent support to soybeans, while favorable South American weather added resistance.

  • The threat of additional tariffs on imported Chinese goods supported soybean oil, which gained 138 points in the January contract, as they would likely slow the import of used cooking oil considerably.

  • All three wheat classes clawed back overnight gains to close mid-range after trading lower early in the session, as traders balanced a drier forecast and reduced Russian exports against exceptionally good crop ratings.

  • To see the updated US and South American precipitation forecasts scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished lower for the fourth straight day, with March futures testing 100-day moving average support. First Notice Day on Friday and basis contract pricing likely pressured the market, leading to the lowest close for March futures in November.

  • President-elect Trump announced a Day 1 tariff plan, proposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports. The prospect of retaliation likely limited positive price action.

  • Brazil’s soybean planting is 85% complete, well ahead of last year. The early pace should keep second-crop (safrinha) corn planting on schedule for key summer weather.

  • A strong US dollar has made US corn less competitive globally. While export sales remain solid, concerns are rising about a potential demand slowdown in early 2025 if the dollar strengthens further.

Above: The corn market became overbought and drifted back to the 425 area, if prices break through and close below the 50-day moving average (ma) they run the risk falling further and testing more major support near the 410 area and 100-day ma. If this 425 – 420 area holds prices could retest the 442 area with the potential of trading towards 465.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended mixed, with front months slightly lower and deferred months higher. Trade was volatile, with prices dropping up to seven cents after the open but recovering into the close. Soybean meal gave back yesterday’s gains, while soybean oil surged 1.38 cents in the January contract.

  • President-elect Trump’s Day 1 tariff plan, proposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports, likely weighed on grain markets during the session.

  • Soybean product prices have driven recent soybean movements. Soybean oil rose over 3% on the session, supporting bean prices, while soybean meal fell nearly 2% in the front-month contract.

  • With planting well ahead of last year’s pace, Brazilian weather stays favorable in the near term with little weather risk to the early soybean crop.

  • Brazilian Crop analyst, Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his 24/25 Brazilian soybean production forecast by 2.0 mmt to 168.0 mmt, citing a strong start and ideal weather in key growing regions.

Above: January soybeans continue to drift and test the 975 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of receding to the 940 support area around the August low. Should the 975 area hold turning prices back higher, they may find resistance between the 50-day moving average and 1014, before retesting the 1045 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex settled mid-range after trading on both sides of unchanged as the market balanced the best crop ratings for the week in six years, with a dry forecast and lower export estimates out of Russia.

  • The USDA reported winter wheat conditions as of November 24 at 55% good to excellent, the highest rating for this week in six years. The crop is also 97% planted, with 89% emergence.

  • Weather across much of the winter wheat areas is expected to be drier than normal through the first week of December, with normal to above-normal temperatures in the Plains states and cooler temperatures in the East.

  • SovEcon lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports to 44.1 mmt from 45.9 mmt, anticipating stricter export quotas. It was also noted that Russia has reduced its export quotas mid-season in recent years to protect domestic supplies.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front month Chicago wheat remains in a broad trading range between 536 down below and 586 up top. If the market can trade through the 50 and 200-day moving averages and close above 586 it could be poised to retest the 617 area. Whereas a close below 536 could put the market at risk of trading to the 521 – 514 support area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: March KC wheat found resistance just below the 50-day moving average, near 577. Should the market trade through this area and close above 583, it could be set to run towards the 593 – 603 area. Otherwise, close below 535 could press prices towards the August low of 527 ¼.

Above: Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Above: Winter wheat percentage emerged (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and versus last year (brown).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept. ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Since rolling to the March contract, front month Minneapolis wheat has been capped by resistance near the 50-day moving average around 613. A close above this point could put the market on track to test the October highs near 655, with potential resistance around the 200-day moving average. Should prices slide below 584 they could then be at risk of retesting the 563 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina two-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-25 End of Day: Grain Markets Close Mixed; Corn and Wheat Lower, Beans Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Lower trade in the neighboring wheat markets and sharply lower crude oil kept sellers engaged in the corn market, which closed near the low end of the day’s range and lower for the third consecutive day.

  • A drier forecast in Brazil and higher soybean meal lent support to the soybean market, which closed off session highs but higher for the second day in a row.

  • Soybean meal broke out to the upside of its congestion range as traders covered short positions, while soybean oil continued its downward trend on long liquidation and lower crude oil prices.

  • Sharp declines in Matif wheat, coupled with minimal news and much-needed rainfall in the Black Sea region, pressured the wheat complex lower, though prices partially recovered to settle well off session lows.

  • To see the updated US Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks and South American one-week precipitation forecasts scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished the session with mild losses after being led lower by selling pressure in the wheat and crude oil markets. The market has traded lower for the past three sessions.

  • Corn futures may face increased volatility this week, with December First Notice Day on Friday likely driving activity and money flow amid shortened trading hours following Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday.

  • The USDA released weekly export inspections this morning. Last week, US exporters shipped 903,000 mt (35.6 mb) of corn. Total inspections for the marketing year are at 395 mb, up 38% from last year.

  • Mexico entered the corn export market with a flash sale, purchasing 454,090 mt (17.9 mb) of corn, split between 364,792 mt (14.4 mb) for the 24/25 marketing year and 89,298 mt (3.5 mb) for 25/26.

  • Today’s sharp drop in crude oil prices will continue to pressure ethanol margins, possibly limiting demand. Talk of a potential ceasefire in the Middle East triggered a 3% drop in front-end crude oil prices.

Above: Overhead resistance for the March contract remains between 440 and 445. A close above this area could trigger a test of the 465 resistance area. If prices drift lower, support may come in between 425 and 420.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, November 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 4,639 contracts between November 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net long 114,628 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher, supported by soybean meal, while soybean oil slipped in a reversal of the meal-oil spread. This marked the second consecutive higher close for soybeans, though the January contract remains just 12 cents above its low. A slightly drier 15-day forecast for Brazil may have lent support.

  • Soybean export inspections totaled 77.2 mb for the week ending November 21, which was the high end of trade expectations. The USDA projects 1.825 bb in exports for 24/25, up 7% from last year.

  • In Brazil, AgRural estimates that soybean planting for 24/25 is 86% complete as of last Thursday, compared to 74% last year. Weather has been favorable, though the 15-day forecast is slightly drier.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as soybean sellers, adding 13,165 contracts to their net short position, now at 67,701 contracts as of November 19. Since then, funds are estimated to have sold another 7,000 contracts.

Above: January soybeans continue to drift and test the 975 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of receding to the 940 support area around the August low. Should a bullish story turn prices back higher, they may find resistance between the 50-day moving average and 1014.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, November 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 13,165 contracts between November 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 67,701 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Chicago and KC led the wheat complex lower, with weakness likely stemming from reports of much-needed rain in the Black Sea region and a quiet news front in the area, though tensions remain high.

  • Sharp declines in Paris milling wheat also contributed to the day’s losses.

  • Weekly Export Inspections showed that 361,000 mt of wheat were inspected for export through Nov. 21. The print was near the top end of expectations, putting year-to-date totals 31% ahead of last year.

  • Ukraine’s Ag Ministry stated the country’s total grain harvest declined 3.8% year over year to 53.4 mmt. Of this total, 22.4 mmt is wheat, which is just under the 22.5 mmt harvested last year.

  • Russia is expected to export a total of 55-60 mmt of grain for this season that began July 1. This is down from the 72 mmt total the country exported last year, which included 54.1 mmt of wheat.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Overhead resistance for March wheat remains near key moving averages between 578–586, with a close above 586 potentially targeting a move toward 617. Support is seen between 546–536, with major support near 521–514.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, November 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,239 contracts between November 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 51,546 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: March KC wheat found resistance just below the 50-day moving average, near 577. Should the market trade through this area and close above 583, it could be set to run towards the 593 – 603 area. Otherwise, close below 535 could press prices towards the August low of 527 ¼.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, November 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,277 contracts between November 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 29,375 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept. ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to March, leaving a gap between 580 ½ and 584 ½ from the contract roll. Resistance remains near 615–624, with initial support around 584 and major support near 563.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, November 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 7,578 contracts between November 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 30,002 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-22 End of Day: Soybeans Rebound into the Weekend, While Corn and Wheat Drift Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Heavy open interest surrounding the 425 and neighboring December corn strike prices, and concerns of slowing demand likely limited price action in the corn market, which closed the day with minor losses.

  • The soybean market bucked the trend of lower corn and wheat to close higher on the day as the January contract found support just above its contract lows and traders covered short positions.

  • Soybean oil continued its downward trend to close lower, pressured by weaker world veg oil markets, while meal rebounded from yesterday’s losses as it continues to consolidate near multi-year lows.

  • With little fresh bullish news to support prices, the wheat complex closed mid-range and lower in all three classes as traders squared positions and took profits ahead of the weekend.

  • To see the updated US and South American one week precipitation forecasts scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished softer, with potentially slowing demand and options expiration limiting prices. On weekly charts, corn remains in a consolidation pattern, finishing 1 ½ cents higher for the week.

  • December corn options expired today, and there was a large amount of open interest between the 420, 425, and 430 strike prices for both calls and puts, which seemed to hold prices throughout the week.

  • Concerns about slowing demand may weigh on the corn market heading into year-end. While export sales have been strong early in the marketing year, the USDA has not announced a flash sale since Nov. 13. Additionally, weekly ethanol production declined for the first time in weeks as higher corn prices and lower energy prices squeezed profit margins.

  • The corn market may face increased volatility next week, with December First Notice Day on Friday likely driving activity and money flow amid shortened trading hours following Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday.

Above: Overhead resistance for the March contract remains between 440 and 445. A close above this area could trigger a test of the 465 resistance area. Below the market, support may come in between 425 and 420.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended higher, snapping a three-day losing streak. January soybeans hit a fresh low overnight before recovering, likely on fund short covering ahead of the weekend. Soybean meal closed higher, while soybean oil continued to track lower palm oil.

  • The USDA reported a flash sale of 198,000 mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year, following three separate sales yesterday to China, unknown destinations, and the Philippines.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report showed soybean sales at 68.3 mb, at the high end of expectations. Top buyers were China, Mexico, and the Netherlands, bringing year-to-date commitments to 1.161 billion bushels, up 9% from last year versus the USDA’s 8% estimate.

  • South American weather remains largely favorable for crop development and planting progress. Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 35.8% of the soybean crop is planted, up from 20.1% last week.

Above: January soybeans continue to drift and test the 975 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of receding to the 940 support area around the August low. Should a bullish story turn prices back higher, they may find resistance between the 50-day moving average and 1014.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex closed lower across the board as traders squared positions ahead of the weekend, with little fresh bullish news from the Black Sea region and reports of strong yields in Australia.

  • While there were no new escalations in the Black Sea, reports indicate Russian President Putin called yesterday’s ICBM attack a successful test and plans to continue testing in combat situations.

  • Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry reported grain exports this season are up 43% year-over-year at 17.2 mmt. Of that, 8.6 mmt was wheat, a 57% increase from the same time last year.

  • Western Australia’s wheat crop is projected to exceed earlier expectations, with the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia estimating 24/25 production at 10.33 mmt — roughly 1 mmt higher than September’s forecast.

  • Argentina’s wheat harvest is progressing, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reporting 29.3% of the expected 18.6 mmt crop now harvested.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Overhead resistance for March wheat remains near key moving averages between 578–586, with a close above 586 potentially targeting 617. Support is seen between 546–536, with major support near 521–514.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: March KC wheat found resistance just below the 50-day moving average, near 577. Should the market trade through this area and close above 583, it could be set to run towards the 593 – 603 area. Otherwise, close below 535 could press prices towards the August low of 527 ¼.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • New sales targets will be issued in the coming weeks, as timing and conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to March, leaving a gap between 580 ½ and 584 ½ from the contract roll. Resistance remains near 615–624, with initial support around 584 and major support near 563.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.