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1-30 End of Day: Wheat Extends Winning Streak, Defying Corn and Soybean Weakness

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Prices fell on technical selling and month-end positioning as March futures failed to break the $5 mark.

  • Soybeans: Dropped sharply after failing to push through resistance, pressured by weak export sales and a steep decline in soybean meal. Soybean oil remained steady.

  • Wheat: Managed to close higher across all three classes, bucking the broader grain market trend, as U.S. and Russian weather concerns continued to support prices.

  • To see the updated U.S. drought monitor as well as the 3-month drought monitor and soybean production maps for South America scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Sales Target Range: Yesterday the March ‘25 contract surged to new highs, closing just within the lower end of the 495 to 515 target range. Given that strong finish — just half a cent shy of the session high — Grain Market Insider is holding off on a sales recommendation for now, allowing for the chance at the upper end of the target range.

  • Highest Close: Yesterday’s close marks the highest settlement for front-month corn since October 19, 2023, reinforcing the recent upward momentum.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart stands between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50 — historical levels that could challenge further upside.

2025 Crop: 

  • Opportunity: Yesterday’s close above 465.50 resistance opens the door for the next upside target in the 470-480 range for the December ‘25 contract.

  • Downside Support: Key support for December ‘25 sits at 453.75, a level to watch for the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential heading into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break above the 479 resistance, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge for existing sales while keeping you positioned for any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 3–5 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Sellers stepped back into the corn market on Thursday as prices suffered moderate losses. Technical selling pressured the market with month-end positioning as March corn failed to push the $5 level.

  • Going into the Thursday session, the corn market was in an overbought condition as hedge funds were holding a near record long position. With selling pressure in the soybean market, corn futures were pressured lower.

  • USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending January 23, new corn sales totaled 1.359 MMT (53.5 mb). This total was toward the upper end of expectations but down 18% from last week.  Total corn commitments remain strong, still trending 28% ahead of last year’s pace.

  • Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated 78% of the crop as good/normal, down 2% from last week, while poor ratings rose to 22% despite recent moisture improvements.

Corn Uptrend Well Supported
Fund buying and strong demand have sustained the corn market’s uptrend since harvest. Initial support is at 475, with additional support near the breakout area around 450. Overhead resistance is now just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently made a recommendation to sell another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Bulls vs. Bears – The Battle at 1060: Soybean bulls and bears continue to slug it out in the March ‘25 contract around the 1060 level. The 1060 – 1080 zone — a key resistance range Grain Market Insider has been watching — remains the battleground.  The big question: Who will win? If the bulls manage to push prices above 1080, the next upside target would be 1150. But if the bears take control, the first downside risk is a retreat toward 1000.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have aggressively covered short positions and shifted to a net-long stance on soybeans. This shift reinforces the idea that now remains an opportune time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

  • First Sale Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recommended initiating 2025 soybean sales yesterday, as the November ‘25 contract closed at a fresh high of 1063.50.  Since last Wednesday, November ‘25 has gained approximately 16 cents, yet the March ‘25 / November ‘25 spread has flipped from an 18-cent inversion to a 3-cent carry. With this spread trending bearish and significant resistance looming near 1070, now looks like a strategic opportunity to start locking in new crop sales.  Especially as Grain Market Insider is prepared to quickly recommend reowning this sale with call options if needed.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly lower meeting resistance at $10.60 in March yesterday and were unable to break that level again today. Export sales were disappointing today, which pressured prices, and lower soybean meal added to that pressure losing $5.10 in March. Soybean oil was relatively unchanged to slightly higher.

  • The USDA announced weekly export sales on Thursday morning.  For the week ending January 23, new soybean sales totaled 438,000 MT (16.1 mb). This was below market expectations and down 71% from last week’s totals.

  • Despite seeing scattered rainfall last week, Argentina crop ratings did not improve.  According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, The Argentina soybean crop was 72% good/normal and 28% poor. The poor category was unchanged from last week.

  • With U.S. tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada set to take effect this weekend, concerns over potential trade retaliations threaten future soybean exports.

Soybeans Face Long-Term Resistance
Front-month soybeans hit resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level capping gains for over 18 months. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies at the 200-day and recent highs around 1060. A weekly close above 1060 could pave the way for a test of the 1100 level.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with modest gains, as there is continued concern about winterkill in both the US and Russia. Also offering support today was a higher close for Matif wheat futures, a slight drop in the US Dollar, and reports that there were new Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian grain storage facilities.

  • Weekly wheat export sales totaled 16.8 mb for 24/25 and 0.9 mb for 25/26, while shipments of 21.6 mb exceeded the 19.5 mb/week pace needed to reach USDA’s 850 mb target. Total commitments for 24/25 are now at 667 mb, up 8% from last year.

  • SovEcon lowered its Russian wheat export forecast from 43.7 mmt to 42.8 mmt, citing upcoming export quotas starting Feb. 15. Meanwhile, Russia’s ag ministry reports 82% of the winter wheat crop is in good to satisfactory condition, though weather remains a risk.

  • February temperatures in India are expected to be above average, potentially reducing wheat yields. If production drops significantly, India — normally a self-sufficient wheat consumer — could become a net importer, a bullish factor for global wheat markets.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: Grain Market Insider maintains a target range of 680–705 for March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: So far, three sales recommendations have been issued for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two earlier recommendations. If you’re behind on sales, this range presents a solid opportunity for a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding. While actionable targets remain out of reach, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stays Rangebound
Front-month Chicago wheat remains confined between 530 and 577. A breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could prompt a retest of 617, while a close below 536 may lead to a decline toward the 521–514 support range.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range for selling more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop remains 650–700 vs. March ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued just two sales recommendations so far, reflecting last year’s significant yield uncertainty and limited post-harvest opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged around 719 vs. July ’24 futures. A sale within the next target range will lower this average, but upside opportunity expectations remain modest for now.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold. While actionable targets are still a way off, these options have about five months remaining until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Maintains Range
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with initial resistance near the 100-day moving average at 568. A close above 583 could pave the way for a move toward 600, while a close below 536 risks a decline to 525.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Sales Target Range: The initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop is a rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25. That said, keep in mind that the near-record short position held by the Funds could lead Grain Market Insider to adjust this target range higher as price action develops.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding them. While actionable targets remain distant, these options have about five months left until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Holds Range
Minneapolis wheat remains rangebound between 585 and 613. A breakout above 613 could spark a rally toward 655, with interim resistance at 624 and 637. Conversely, a close below 585 may trigger a decline toward November lows near 568.

Other Charts / Weather

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1-29 End of Day: Buying Interest on Weather Worries Drives Grains Higher Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Strong buying lifted corn futures on Wednesday, with the March contract posting its highest close since May 28 as money flowed into the grain markets.

  • Renewed concerns with South American weather drove soybean prices back near their recent highs. Soybean meal led the gains in soybeans today while soybean oil slipped slightly lower.  

  • Wheat futures surged with double-digit gains across all three classes, supported by strength in corn, soybeans, and Matif wheat.

  • To see the updated 7-day U.S. precipitation forecast as well as the week two South American precipitation forecast scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Sales Target Range: The March ‘25 contract surged to new highs, closing just within the lower end of the 495 to 515 target range. Given today’s strong finish — just half a cent shy of the session high — Grain Market Insider is holding off on a sales recommendation for now, allowing for the chance at the upper end of the target range.

  • Highest Close: Today’s close marks the highest settlement for front-month corn since October 19, 2023, reinforcing the recent upward momentum.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart stands between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50 — historical levels that could challenge further upside.

2025 Crop: 

  • Opportunity: Today’s close above 465.50 resistance opens the door for the next upside target in the 470-480 range for the December ‘25 contract.

  • Downside Support: Key support for December ‘25 sits at 453.75, a level to watch for the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential heading into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break above the 479 resistance, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge for existing sales while keeping you positioned for any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 3–5 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong buying moved into the grain markets on Wednesday, and that supported corn futures’ strong gains on the session. Corn futures contract broke to new nearby highs as money flowed into the grain markets. The March corn contract posted its highest close since May 28.

  • Weekly ethanol production fell 7.6% to 1.015 million barrels/day but remains 2.4% above year-ago levels. The weekly grind used 102.4 mb of corn, slightly below the pace needed for USDA targets.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for new sales to range from 850,000 – 1.8 MMT. As U.S. corn is still very competitive in the global export market.  Last week, sales were 1.660 MMT.

  • Corn eased from session highs as President Trump reaffirmed a Feb. 1 deadline for potential tariffs on Mexico and Canada, raising concerns over retaliatory measures from Mexico, the top U.S. corn buyer.

  • Weather forecast for central Brazil look to stay on the wetter side. Additional rainfall may limit soybean harvest pace, which would slow the planting pace of the key second crop Brazil corn. The second crop Brazil corn is the main crop that competes against U.S. bushels on the export market.

Corn Uptrend Well Supported
Fund buying and strong demand have sustained the corn market’s uptrend since harvest. Initial support is at 475, with additional support near the breakout area around 450. Overhead resistance is now just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Bulls vs. Bears – The Battle at 1060: Soybean bulls and bears continue to slug it out in the March ‘25 contract around the 1060 level. The 1060 – 1080 zone — a key resistance range Grain Market Insider has been watching — remains the battleground. Today’s session ended in a stalemate, with March ‘25 settling at the lower edge of that range at 1060.50.  The big question: Who will win? If the bulls manage to push prices above 1080, the next upside target would be 1150. But if the bears take control, the first downside risk is a retreat toward 1000.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have aggressively covered short positions and shifted to a net-long stance on soybeans. This shift reinforces the idea that now remains an opportune time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

  • First Sale Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recommends initiating 2025 soybean sales today, as the November ‘25 contract closed at a fresh high of 1063.50.  Since last Wednesday, November ‘25 has gained approximately 16 cents, yet the March ‘25 / November ‘25 spread has flipped from an 18-cent inversion to a 3-cent carry. With this spread trending bearish and significant resistance looming near 1070, now looks like a strategic opportunity to start locking in new crop sales.  Especially as Grain Market Insider is prepared to quickly recommend reowning this sale with call options if needed.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher, with March futures targeting the 200-day moving average at $10.73. Strength came from a sharp rally in soybean meal due to Argentine crop concerns, while soybean oil ended lower.

  • The U.S. export window to China is closing unless President Trump can convince China to agree to Phase 1 purchase obligations. China is on a holiday through most of next week which could cause some delays in negotiations.

  • In Argentina, just 20% of the soybean crop is setting/filling pods, and adequate soil moisture levels have fallen from 81.1% to 54.8 since the beginning of the year. Recent rains are expected to improve conditions.

  • A Brazilian port found 51 cargoes of soybean meal contaminated with sand during inspections. This follows China rejecting multiple soybean shipments over phytosanitary concerns.

Soybeans Face Long-Term Resistance
Front-month soybeans hit resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level capping gains for over 18 months. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies at the 200-day and recent highs around 1060. A weekly close above 1060 could pave the way for a test of the 1100 level.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat market closed sharply higher with double-digit gains across all three classes. Higher corn and soybeans, as well as higher Matif wheat futures both played a part in boosting US wheat. Funds likely covered short positions amid concerns over Russian winterkill.

  • Following Argentina’s export tax cut, its FOB wheat prices are now $11/MT below Russia’s $225/MT offers. Increased Argentine exports could cap upside potential for U.S. wheat.

  • This afternoon, the Federal Reserve announced no change to interest rates, as inflation remains elevated. This was largely in line with expectations, and at the time of writing the US Dollar Index is only slightly higher for the day.

  • According to the European Commission, EU 24/25 soft wheat exports as of January 26 have reached 12.18 mmt since the season began in July. This falls well below the 19.35 mmt shipped for the same timeframe last year.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: Grain Market Insider maintains a target range of 680–705 for March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: So far, three sales recommendations have been issued for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two earlier recommendations. If you’re behind on sales, this range presents a solid opportunity for a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding. While actionable targets remain out of reach, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stays Rangebound
Front-month Chicago wheat remains confined between 530 and 577. A breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could prompt a retest of 617, while a close below 536 may lead to a decline toward the 521–514 support range.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range for selling more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop remains 650–700 vs. March ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued just two sales recommendations so far, reflecting last year’s significant yield uncertainty and limited post-harvest opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged around 719 vs. July ’24 futures. A sale within the next target range will lower this average, but upside opportunity expectations remain modest for now.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold. While actionable targets are still a way off, these options have about five months remaining until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Maintains Range
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with initial resistance near the 100-day moving average at 568. A close above 583 could pave the way for a move toward 600, while a close below 536 risks a decline to 525.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Sales Target Range: The initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop is a rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25. That said, keep in mind that the near-record short position held by the Funds could lead Grain Market Insider to adjust this target range higher as price action develops.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding them. While actionable targets remain distant, these options have about five months left until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Holds Range
Minneapolis wheat remains rangebound between 585 and 613. A breakout above 613 could spark a rally toward 655, with interim resistance at 624 and 637. Conversely, a close below 585 may trigger a decline toward November lows near 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil and N. Argentina week two forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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1-28 End of Day: Wheat Leads the Grain Complex Higher Tuesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Continued strong demand for U.S. corn pushed prices higher Tuesday, erasing Monday’s losses.

  • Soybeans finished mixed, with March futures unchanged and deferred contracts higher. The bean products corrected slightly after yesterday’s sell-off, with soybean meal and oil closing modestly higher.

  • Wheat futures added double digits on Tuesday, backed by stronger European wheat futures and weather worries in the Black Sea region.

  • To see the updated 5-day GFS precipitation forecast for South America as well as the 8–14-day US temperature and precipitation outlooks scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Sales Target Range: Eyeing the 495 to 515 range for the March ’25 contract.

  • Modest Weekly Gain: Following two strong weekly gains totaling 33 cents, the March ’25 contract managed a modest two-cent uptick last week, closing slightly higher overall.

  • Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, key resistance lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • March ’25 Contract Levels: Last week, the March ’25 contract revisited the 487–508 range—where Grain Market Insider issued its first three sales recommendations for the 2024 corn crop during summer 2023 and spring 2024. So far, four sales recommendations have been made for the 2024 crop. If you haven’t acted on all four yet, now is a great time to catch up. Prices rebounded to a high last week of 494.50 vs March ‘25, and despite weakness in the last two trading days, the market remains over 100 cents higher than the August low on the front-month continuous chart.

2025 Crop: 

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • First Resistance: Resistance is now pegged at last week’s high of 465.50. On Thursday, the December ’25 contract managed to break above the October 2024 high of 459.75, but the breakout proved short-lived, with prices closing back below 459.75 today.

  • Downside Risk: A confirmed close above last week’s high of 465.50 would validate the breakout over 459.75. However, failure to sustain momentum above this level increases the likelihood of a false breakout. In that scenario, the market risks returning to range-bound trading, with support at the lower end of the range near 428.00.

  • Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract succeeds in rallying above 465.50, a test of the next major resistance area of 480 should be an easy task. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.

  • Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to underpin the market. However, higher prices could incentivize increased U.S. planted acreage for the 2025 crop, potentially adding headwinds.

  • Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 3–5 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Buyers returned to the corn market on Tuesday as buying strength across the grain markets helped push corn prices moderately higher. The strong demand tone continues to help support the old crop side of the market.

  • The USDA reported a flash sale of 132,000 MT (5.2 mb) of U.S. corn to South Korea for the current marketing year, marking the fourth consecutive day of announced export sales.

  • Corn prices eased from session highs after President Trump reiterated a February 1 deadline for potential tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Concerns over counter-tariffs linger as Mexico remains the largest buyer of U.S. corn.

  • Afternoon forecasts show the potential for rain fall for central Brazil. Additional rainfall may limit soybean harvest pace, which would slow the planting pace of the key second crop Brazil corn. The second crop Brazil corn is the main crop that competes against U.S. bushels on the export market.

Corn Uptrend Well Supported
Fund buying and strong demand have sustained the corn market’s uptrend since harvest. Initial support is at 475, with additional support near the breakout area around 450. Overhead resistance is now just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Sales Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract pushed further into the 1060–1080 target range last week, reaching an intraweek high of 1073.50. However, the gains proved short-lived, with the contract closing below the January 14th high of 1064. Out of three trading days spent in the 1060–1080 range, two ended with bearish reversals, closing below 1060. This highlights the strength of the 1060–1080 range as a key resistance area, which factored prominently into last week’s sales recommendation.

  • From the Lows: Despite recent softening, the March ’25 contract is still up roughly one dollar from its December low of 947.00. This remains a solid rally and a valuable opportunity to act if you haven’t already.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have aggressively covered short positions and shifted to a net-long stance on soybeans. This shift reinforces the idea that now remains an opportune time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day mixed with the front month March unchanged but the deferred contracts higher. Futures were likely correcting yesterday’s sell-off slightly as little has changed fundamentally. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day slightly higher.

  • The Brazilian soybean harvest is reportedly the slowest since the 20/21 harvest. Parana has been leading the country in progress, but Mato Grosso and other states are still delayed although there have been reductions in rainfall projections.

  • In Argentina, just 20% of the soybean crop is setting/filling pods, and adequate soil moisture levels have fallen from 81.1% to 54.8 since the beginning of the year. Recent rains are expected to improve conditions.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections at 729k tons which compared to 979k last week and 913k the previous year. The majority of the soybeans are headed to China followed by Turkey.

Soybeans Face Long-Term Resistance
Front-month soybeans hit resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level capping gains for over 18 months. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies at the 200-day and recent highs around 1060. A weekly close above 1060 could pave the way for a test of the 1100 level.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat made modest gains in all three classes today, despite the move higher for the US Dollar. Support came from a rebound in Paris milling wheat futures, as well as talk that warm weather in the Black Sea region could cause wheat to come out of dormancy too soon.

  • The Russian Grain Union projects 2024/25 grain exports may fall below 50 MMT due to weather issues and reduced production, with wheat accounting for 41–42 MMT. SovEcon estimates January wheat exports at 2.1 MMT, the lowest since 2017.

  • Secex data shows Brazil’s daily average wheat imports for January 2025 at 34.4K MT, up 23.3% year-over-year. Total imports through January 20 reached 412.8K MT, compared to 614K MT for all of January 2024.

  • The US ag attaché to Argentina is estimating their wheat crop at 18.1 mmt, which is above the USDA’s guess of 17.5 mmt. Additionally, Argentina’s wheat export volume may increase, as their government’s recently announced export tax reduction began today.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: Grain Market Insider maintains a target range of 680–705 for March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: So far, three sales recommendations have been issued for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two earlier recommendations. If you’re behind on sales, this range presents a solid opportunity for a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding. While actionable targets remain out of reach, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stays Rangebound
Front-month Chicago wheat remains confined between 530 and 577. A breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could prompt a retest of 617, while a close below 536 may lead to a decline toward the 521–514 support range.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range for selling more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop remains 650–700 vs. March ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued just two sales recommendations so far, reflecting last year’s significant yield uncertainty and limited post-harvest opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged around 719 vs. July ’24 futures. A sale within the next target range will lower this average, but upside opportunity expectations remain modest for now.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold. While actionable targets are still a way off, these options have about five months remaining until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Maintains Range
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with initial resistance near the 100-day moving average at 568. A close above 583 could pave the way for a move toward 600, while a close below 536 risks a decline to 525.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Sales Target Range: The initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop is a rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25. That said, keep in mind that the near-record short position held by the Funds could lead Grain Market Insider to adjust this target range higher as price action develops.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding them. While actionable targets remain distant, these options have about five months left until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Holds Range
Minneapolis wheat remains rangebound between 585 and 613. A breakout above 613 could spark a rally toward 655, with interim resistance at 624 and 637. Conversely, a close below 585 may trigger a decline toward November lows near 568.

Other Charts / Weather

South America 5-day GFS Total Accumulated Precipitation forecast, in millimeters, courtesy of NOAA.

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1-27 End of Day: Grains Start the Week Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures ended lower on Monday following other grains lower despite a daily flash sale of corn to Mexico.

  • Soybeans finished lower Monday after failing at upside resistance last week. Better than expected rains for Argentina over the weekend pressured the entire bean complex with soybean meal posting the largest losses.

  • Wheat futures started the week off on the wrong foot following losses in corn and soybeans. Monday appeared to be a “risk-off” day across all markets as stocks futures fell hard along with most commodities.

  • To see the updated U.S. and South America 7-day precipitation forecasts as well as the 30-day percent of normal precipitation map for South America scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Sales Target Range: Eyeing the 495 to 515 range for the March ’25 contract.

  • Modest Weekly Gain: Following two strong weekly gains totaling 33 cents, the March ’25 contract managed a modest two-cent uptick last week, closing slightly higher overall.

  • Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, key resistance lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • March ’25 Contract Levels: Last week, the March ’25 contract revisited the 487–508 range—where Grain Market Insider issued its first three sales recommendations for the 2024 corn crop during summer 2023 and spring 2024. So far, four sales recommendations have been made for the 2024 crop. If you haven’t acted on all four yet, now is a great time to catch up. Prices rebounded to a high last week of 494.50 vs March ‘25, and despite weakness in the last two trading days, the market remains over 100 cents higher than the August low on the front-month continuous chart.

2025 Crop: 

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • First Resistance: Resistance is now pegged at last week’s high of 465.50. On Thursday, the December ’25 contract managed to break above the October 2024 high of 459.75, but the breakout proved short-lived, with prices closing back below 459.75 today.

  • Downside Risk: A confirmed close above last week’s high of 465.50 would validate the breakout over 459.75. However, failure to sustain momentum above this level increases the likelihood of a false breakout. In that scenario, the market risks returning to range-bound trading, with support at the lower end of the range near 428.00.

  • Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract succeeds in rallying above 465.50, a test of the next major resistance area of 480 should be an easy task. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.

  • Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to underpin the market. However, higher prices could incentivize increased U.S. planted acreage for the 2025 crop, potentially adding headwinds.

  • Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 3–5 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended Monday lower, pressured by weakness in other grains. The March contract closed 12 cents below its recent high, marking its second consecutive session of losses as upward momentum stalled.

  • Better-than-expected weekend rains in Argentina weighed on corn and soybean markets. Forecasts for February also look favorable for crop production in areas previously stressed by heat and dryness.

  • Demand remains robust, with the USDA reporting a flash sale of 139,000 MT (5.5 mb) of corn to Mexico for the current marketing year. Weekly export inspections reached 1.247 MMT (49.1 mb), 31% ahead of last year and trending above USDA export targets.

  • The key second corn crop planting pace in Brazil is behind expectations as approximately 2.2% of the crop was planted as of last week. Though still early, a later planting window could push the crop’s finishing point past a key time window closer to maturity and possibly limit production.

  • Managed hedge funds continue to grow their long position in the corn market, adding nearly 20,000 net long contracts to a total position of 311,678 net long contracts. This is the fourth most bullish position ever held for this date.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 470, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Larger overhead resistance now comes in just below 500.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 19,450 contracts between January 14 – January 21, bringing their total position to a net long 311,678 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Sales Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract pushed further into the 1060–1080 target range last week, reaching an intraweek high of 1073.50. However, the gains proved short-lived, with the contract closing below the January 14th high of 1064. Out of three trading days spent in the 1060–1080 range, two ended with bearish reversals, closing below 1060. This highlights the strength of the 1060–1080 range as a key resistance area, which factored prominently into last week’s sales recommendation.

  • From the Lows: Despite recent softening, the March ’25 contract is still up roughly one dollar from its December low of 947.00. This remains a solid rally and a valuable opportunity to act if you haven’t already.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have aggressively covered short positions and shifted to a net-long stance on soybeans. This shift reinforces the idea that now remains an opportune time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the second consecutive session after March futures failed to hold above the 200-day moving average last week. Long liquidation by funds may have followed a weekend of uncertainty, with President Trump briefly imposing and rescinding tariffs on Colombia, creating a bearish sentiment for grains.

  • Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower with meal picking up the larger losses. Rains fell over Argentina this weekend, which was sorely needed, but soybean oil may be under pressure from the 45z tax credits that may not be implemented.

  • While Argentina has received needed rain, Brazil continues to rain through what should be the start of harvest. The country is reportedly just 4% completed with harvest compared to the average of 13% for this time of year. Rain is forecast to continue over the next 15 days.

  • Friday’s CFTC saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 5,497 contracts as of January 21. This left them with a net long position of 40,330 contracts. Since that day, they are estimated to have sold approximately 2,000 contracts.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,497 contracts between January 14 – January 21, bringing their total position to a netlong40,330 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted losses alongside the broader grain complex as markets turned risk-averse. Weakness was tied to a sharp selloff in tech stocks, with the NASDAQ down over 700 points. The drop followed news of Chinese AI company DeepSeek releasing a cheaper, more efficient model, raising concerns about the valuation of U.S. AI firms.

  • Weekly wheat inspections totaled 17.8 million bushels, bringing the 2024/25 season total to 506 million bushels, up 25% year-over-year. Inspections remain ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA’s export estimate of 850 million bushels, which is 20% higher than last year.

  • The Commodity Weather Group estimates up to 15% of the U.S. winter wheat crop may have been killed by recent sub-freezing temperatures. Areas with little to no snow cover were hit hardest, with 65% of HRW and 35% of SRW regions reportedly affected.

  • Ukraine’s agriculture ministry has indicated that their country intends to plant 11.1 million hectares of grain for 2025, which is in line with last year. Of that total, winter grains (which will consist mostly of wheat) are expected to reach 5.2 million hectares.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: Grain Market Insider continues to target 680–705 vs. March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Three sales recommendations have been made so far for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two previous recommendations. If you are behind on sales, this range offers a good opportunity to make a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The next target range for a sale is 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has taken a slightly more aggressive approach with sales for the 2025 crop, leveraging market carry during the overall downtrend from the October high. The average price of the four sales made so far vs. July ’25 is approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would increase that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider has recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • Next Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop is 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: The growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to the July ’25 contract make the July ’26 contract an early opportunity to monitor closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,601 contracts between January 14 – January 21, bringing their total position to a net short 91,792 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: 650 – 700 vs. March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued only two sales recommendations to date, reflecting the significant yield uncertainty before last year’s harvest and the limited post-harvest sales opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged approximately 719 vs. the July ’24 futures. A sale at the next target range will reduce the average, but upside expectations remain tempered for now

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 640 – 665 range vs. July ‘25 to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,475 contracts between January 14 – January 21, bringing their total position to a net short 35,131 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Target Range: A rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25 is the initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop. However, the near-record short position held by Funds suggests that this target range could adjust higher as future price action unfolds.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 700 – 750 is the target range vs September ‘25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,134 contracts between January 14 – January 21, bringing their total position to a net short 27,164 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

South America 30-day precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center.

Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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01-24 End of Day: Lower Export Taxes for Argentina Pressure Grains Friday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Strong export sales were overpowered by fund profit taking as corn futures slipped lower to end the week.

  • Argentina’s announcement of lower export taxes along with an improved weather outlook for much of South America pressured soybean futures on Friday.

  • Disappointing export sales and weakness in corn and soybean futures pressured wheat to end the week.

  • To see the one-week GFS precipitation forecast for South America as well as the January precipitation ranks by climate district for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Target Range: 495 to 515 for the March ’25 contract.

  • Modest Weekly Gain: After two strong weekly gains totaling 33 cents, the March ’25 contract eked out a modest two-cent increase this week, closing slightly higher overall.

  • Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, the next resistance range lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • March ’25 Contract Levels: The March ’25 contract has returned to the 487–508 price range, where Grain Market Insider issued its first three sales recommendations for the 2024 corn crop in summer 2023 and spring 2024. To date, four total sales recommendations have been made for the 2024 crop. If you have not yet made all four sales, now is an excellent time to catch up, with prices rebounding to these recommended levels and the market up over 100 cents from the August low on the front-month continuous chart.

2025 Crop: 

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • First Resistance: Resistance remains at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract.

  • Downside Risk: Failure to rally over 459.75 poses the risk of range-bound trading, with the bottom end of the range at 428.00.

  • Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract eventually succeeds in rallying above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.

  • Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 4–6 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market traded lower to end the week despite another strong week of export sales. End of week profit taking and a cut of export taxes in Argentina weighed on the market.

  • The Argentina government announced an export tax cut on agriculture commodities to help support producers in the South American country. Corn export taxes will be reduced from 12% to 9.5% until the end of June. This cut lowers export prices, and stimulates additional producer selling of grains, providing competition for U.S. export business.

  • For the week ending January 16, corn export sales reached 1.661 MMT (65.4 mb), coming in at the high end of expectations with South Korea as the primary buyer. Total sales are 29% above last year and running ahead of the pace needed to meet the current USDA target.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its corn crop projection for this year by 1 MMT this week, citing impacts from hot and dry weather which are limiting crop potential.

  • South American weather will stay a driver in the grain markets going into next week’s trade. Forecasts still look improved for Argentina and Southern Brazil, but recent weather has still been less than ideal. Sunday night trade will likely be influenced by the weekend weather.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 470, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Larger overhead resistance now comes in just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract advanced further into the 1060–1080 target range, hitting an intraday high of 1073.50 today. However, the early gains couldn’t hold, and March closed below the 1/14 high of 1064. Out of the three trading days within this range, two have shown bearish reversals, closing back under 1060. This reinforces the strength of the 1060–1080 range as a significant resistance area, which played a key role in today’s sales recommendation.

  • From the Lows: The March ‘25 contract remains up over one dollar from its December low of 947.00, marking this as a solid rally worth capitalizing on.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have covered a significant number of short positions and are now net-long soybeans, further supporting the idea that now is an ideal time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower giving back all of yesterday’s gains in the March contract. Yesterday, prices failed at resistance at the 200-day moving average near $10.75. Soybean meal led the way lower as Argentine exports are expected to increase, while soybean oil was slightly higher.

  • Yesterday evening, the Argentine government announced that it would cut export taxes on all grains in order to bolster the domestic farming economy. Traders likely see Argentina exports increasing due to this, but weather has improved in the country as well.

  • Today’s export sales report was within trade expectations at 54.8 million bushels for 24/25 and 33.1 tb for 25/26. This was up noticeably from the previous week and the 4-week average. Primary destinations were to China, Japan, and Mexico. Last week’s export shipments of 38.0 mb were above the 20.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

  • For the week, March soybeans gained 21-3/4 cents while November gained 21 cents. March soybean meal gained $7.70 while March soybean oil lost 47 cents.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite a drop in the U.S. Dollar Index, wheat prices fell due to weak corn and soybean markets, poor export sales, and a decline in Paris milling wheat futures.

  • Overnight Argentina cut wheat export tax to 9.5% from 12% for the next five months. It was also reported late this week that Russia reduced its wheat tax to 4,430 Rubles/mt, down 5.7%. Historically, reduced export taxes boost farmer selling.

  • The USDA reported an increase of only 6.1 mb of wheat exports sales for 24/25, and an increase of 1.9 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 7.4 mb also fell below the 18.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 850 mb. Wheat sales commitments stand at 650 mb, up 7% from last year.

  • According to their agriculture ministry, since the season began on July 1 Ukraine’s total grain exports have reached 24.7 mmt, which is up 11% year over year. Wheat shipments specifically have hit 10.6 mmt, which is up 21% year over year.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: Grain Market Insider continues to target 680–705 vs. March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Three sales recommendations have been made so far for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two previous recommendations. If you are behind on sales, this range offers a good opportunity to make a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The next target range for a sale is 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has taken a slightly more aggressive approach with sales for the 2025 crop, leveraging market carry during the overall downtrend from the October high. The average price of the four sales made so far vs. July ’25 is approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would increase that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider has recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • Next Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop is 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: The growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to the July ’25 contract make the July ’26 contract an early opportunity to monitor closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: 650 – 700 vs. March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued only two sales recommendations to date, reflecting the significant yield uncertainty before last year’s harvest and the limited post-harvest sales opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged approximately 719 vs. the July ’24 futures. A sale at the next target range will reduce the average, but upside expectations remain tempered for now

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 640 – 665 range vs. July ‘25 to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Target Range: A rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25 is the initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop. However, the near-record short position held by Funds suggests that this target range could adjust higher as future price action unfolds.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 700 – 750 is the target range vs September ‘25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

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01-23 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans End the Day with Gains

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After a down day for corn yesterday, corn futures rebounded today, closing higher as Argentina crops continue to struggle with dry weather.

  • Soybeans closed higher today driven by higher soybean oil and declining crop conditions in Argentina.

  • As the threat of winterkill diminishes across the U.S. with warming temperatures and the end of the cold snap, wheat prices closed lower for the day.

  • To see the U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Target Range: 495 to 515 for the March ’25 contract.

  • Weekly Close: The March ’25 contract posted a strong weekly close last week, finishing above the May 2024 high of 475.50. This marks the highest close since the week of December 4, 2023.

  • Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, the next resistance range lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • March ’25 Contract Levels: The March ’25 contract has returned to the 487–508 price range, where Grain Market Insider issued its first three sales recommendations for the 2024 corn crop in summer 2023 and spring 2024. To date, four total sales recommendations have been made for the 2024 crop. If you have not yet made all four sales, now is an excellent time to catch up, with prices rebounding to these recommended levels and the market up over 100 cents from the August low on the front-month continuous chart.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • First Resistance: Resistanceremains at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract.

  • Downside Risk: Failure to rally over 459.75 poses the risk of range-bound trading, with the bottom end of the range at 428.00.

  • Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract eventually succeeds in rallying above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.

  • Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 4–6 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market rejected yesterday’s turn lower in prices to push to new highs for the move during Thursday’s session. March corn futures is trading 5 ½ cents higher on the week going into Friday’s trade, closing today at its highest price point since late May.

  • Argentina’s crops continue to struggle with dry weather, and longer-range forecasts indicate slightly below-normal precipitation in the 10-15 day outlook. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its corn crop ratings to 80% in the normal/excellent category, while 20% of the crop is now rated poor, up 6% from last week.

  • Weekly ethanol production recovered a little last week to 323 million gallons/day. There was 111 mil. bu. used last week in ethanol production which is still trending ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA target.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Friday morning. Expectations are for new sales to be 700,000-1.7 MMT. Last week’s sales were just over 1.0 MMT.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 470, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Larger overhead resistance now comes in just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract advanced further into the 1060–1080 target range, hitting an intraday high of 1073.50 today. However, the early gains couldn’t hold, and March closed below the 1/14 high of 1064. Out of the three trading days within this range, two have shown bearish reversals, closing back under 1060. This reinforces the strength of the 1060–1080 range as a significant resistance area, which played a key role in today’s sales recommendation.

  • From the Lows: The March ‘25 contract remains up over one dollar from its December low of 947.00, marking this as a solid rally worth capitalizing on.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have covered a significant number of short positions and are now net-long soybeans, further supporting the idea that now is an ideal time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher, taking back nearly all of yesterday’s losses. While trade was higher, the March contract failed at the 200-day moving average at $10.76 and retreated nearly 10 cents. Today’s move was mostly driven by higher soybean oil despite concerns over the 45z tax credit while soybean meal was mixed with lower prices in the front months and higher in the deferred.

  • Despite Argentinian weather improving over the past few days, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange released its weekly crop update that estimated a decline in normal to excellent conditions by 7% to 72%. At this time last year, 92% of the crop was rated normal to excellent, and the 5-year average is 81%.

  • Yesterday, soybean futures were driven lower by soybean oil after President Trump signed an executive order for a regulatory freeze for new policy which included the 45z tax credit proposal. There have been concerns that the 45z credit may not go through.

  • President Trump has indicated that tariffs were coming for Canada and Mexico on February 1, and today it was reported that a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports would be put in place on the 1st as well. While this was expected, the Chinese stock market fell, and exports of soybeans could be affected.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • With the exception of the May Chicago contract, wheat futures closed neutral to lower today. As warmer temperatures are expected in the central U.S., the threat of winterkill is diminishing, which is contributing to the decline in prices.

  • A French dock worker’s union has initiated port strikes, including at the largest grain terminals. The strikes are set to occur on 13 days from January 23 to February 28, with each lasting four hours. Additionally, work will be halted for 48 hours on January 30 and 31. The strikes are reportedly driven by several issues, including pension reform, and could impact the flow of grains.

  • From a technical perspective, Kansas City futures appear to have run into resistance around the 100-day moving average. The March contract did break above this level yesterday but has closed below it for the second day in a row. As of today’s close, the 100-day MA sits at 576-3/4.

  • Japan is reported to have made a 127,000 mt purchase of wheat, with 15,000 mt of that being U.S. HRW, and 16,000 mt being U.S. white wheat. The rest was sourced from Australia and Canada.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: Grain Market Insider continues to target 680–705 vs. March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Three sales recommendations have been made so far for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two previous recommendations. If you are behind on sales, this range offers a good opportunity to make a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The next target range for a sale is 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has taken a slightly more aggressive approach with sales for the 2025 crop, leveraging market carry during the overall downtrend from the October high. The average price of the four sales made so far vs. July ’25 is approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would increase that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider has recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • Next Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop is 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: The growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to the July ’25 contract make the July ’26 contract an early opportunity to monitor closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: 650 – 700 vs. March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued only two sales recommendations to date, reflecting the significant yield uncertainty before last year’s harvest and the limited post-harvest sales opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged approximately 719 vs. the July ’24 futures. A sale at the next target range will reduce the average, but upside expectations remain tempered for now

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 640 – 665 range vs. July ‘25 to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Target Range: A rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25 is the initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop. However, the near-record short position held by Funds suggests that this target range could adjust higher as future price action unfolds.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 700 – 750 is the target range vs September ‘25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above two: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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01-22 End of Day: Corn Retreats from Multi-Month Highs

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market retreated from multi-month highs today, pressured by technical overbought conditions.

  • Soybean futures closed lower as an improved weather outlook for South America eased concerns about crop stress.

  • Wheat futures ended in the red, with Chicago leading the losses. Weakness in corn and soybeans spilled over into wheat, amplifying the selloff.

  • To see the 30-day percent of normal rainfall map for South America as well as the U.S. seasonal drought outlook, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Target Range: 495 to 515 for the March ’25 contract.

  • Weekly Close: The March ’25 contract posted a strong weekly close last week, finishing above the May 2024 high of 475.50. This marks the highest close since the week of December 4, 2023.

  • Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, the next resistance range lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • March ’25 Contract Levels: The March ’25 contract has returned to the 487–508 price range, where Grain Market Insider issued its first three sales recommendations for the 2024 corn crop in summer 2023 and spring 2024. To date, four total sales recommendations have been made for the 2024 crop. If you have not yet made all four sales, now is an excellent time to catch up, with prices rebounding to these recommended levels and the market up over 100 cents from the August low on the front-month continuous chart.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • First Resistance: Resistanceremains at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract.

  • Downside Risk: Failure to rally over 459.75 poses the risk of range-bound trading, with the bottom end of the range at 428.00.

  • Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract eventually succeeds in rallying above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.

  • Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 4–6 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices finished the day lower after making 8-month highs early on. Improved weather patterns in South America weighed on the market, contributing to the late-session pullback.

  • The USDA announced a private export sale of 136,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations for 2024/25 delivery. While this news supported prices early in the session, the market ultimately faded by the close.

  • S&P global raised their 2025 corn acre forecast to 93.5 mmt. This is up 700,000 acres from their forecast in December and nearly 3 million acres more than 2024.

  • The corn market treads in overbought territory with funds now estimated to be long over 320,000 contracts. Many feel it would take worsening conditions in South America to sustain rallies above the $5.00 level.

  • Weekly ethanol production data has been delayed until Thursday morning due to Monday’s holiday.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 470, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Larger overhead resistance now comes in just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract advanced further into the 1060–1080 target range, hitting an intraday high of 1073.50 today. However, the early gains couldn’t hold, and March closed below the 1/14 high of 1064. Out of the three trading days within this range, two have shown bearish reversals, closing back under 1060. This reinforces the strength of the 1060–1080 range as a significant resistance area, which played a key role in today’s sales recommendation.

  • From the Lows: At Tuesday’s close of 1067.25, the contract stood over one dollar above its December low of 947.00, marking a solid rally worth capitalizing on.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have covered a significant number of short positions and are now net-long soybeans, further supporting the idea that now is an ideal time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower, taking back a portion of yesterday’s impressive gains. Yesterday’s rally was fueled by a sharp drop in the dollar, wet Brazilian harvest conditions, and an issue with grain shipments from Brazil to China. Today was likely a technical pullback that was accelerated by lower soybean oil while soybean meal ended higher.

  • Yesterday, it was reported that Brazilian shipments of soybeans were suspended by China after 5 different Chinese firms found that the shipments did not meet phytosanitary requirements. There were concerns after some cargoes were found with chemical contamination, pests, or insects.

  • President Trump has indicated that tariffs were coming for Canada and Mexico on February 1, and today it was reported that a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports would be put in place on the 1st as well. While this was expected, the Chinese stock market fell, and exports of soybeans could be affected due to retaliations.

  • Weather in South America remains mixed: Argentina continues to see necessary rain, while persistent rainfall in Brazil is delaying the harvest and raising potential quality concerns. Brazilian soybeans were planted late, however, so a later harvest would be expected.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat joined corn and soybeans in posting losses, with the Chicago contract leading the decline. Factors contributing to the weaker trade included profit-taking, a lower close for Matif wheat, and uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs and sanctions.

  • S&P Global increased their 2025 total acreage forecast by 1.1 million to 47.1 million acres. Their winter wheat projection in particular stands at 34.115 million acres, which is in line with the most recent USDA estimate.

  • SovEcon left their estimate of 2025 Russian wheat production steady at 78.7 mmt, which would be the lowest since 2021. With that said, if a significant cold spell occurs, minimal snow cover means that winterkill could be an issue that reduces overall production.

  • According to the GASC vice chairman, Egypt intends to import between 5-6 mmt of wheat during the 24/25 season for their subsidized bread program. Total season imports are anticipated at 12.5 mmt; Egypt is one of the top global importers of wheat.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: Grain Market Insider continues to target 680–705 vs. March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Three sales recommendations have been made so far for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two previous recommendations. If you are behind on sales, this range offers a good opportunity to make a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The next target range for a sale is 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has taken a slightly more aggressive approach with sales for the 2025 crop, leveraging market carry during the overall downtrend from the October high. The average price of the four sales made so far vs. July ’25 is approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would increase that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider has recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • Next Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop is 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: The growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to the July ’25 contract make the July ’26 contract an early opportunity to monitor closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: 650 – 700 vs. March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued only two sales recommendations to date, reflecting the significant yield uncertainty before last year’s harvest and the limited post-harvest sales opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged approximately 719 vs. the July ’24 futures. A sale at the next target range will reduce the average, but upside expectations remain tempered for now

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 640 – 665 range vs. July ‘25 to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Target Range: A rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25 is the initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop. However, the near-record short position held by Funds suggests that this target range could adjust higher as future price action unfolds.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 700 – 750 is the target range vs September ‘25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

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01-21 End of Day: Soybeans Lead Grains Higher Tuesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Strong weekly export inspections helped to push corn higher to start the week as July futures edged over the $5 level.

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher, taking out last week’s high. South American weather worries drove soybean meal futures over 4.6% higher while soybean oil closed slightly higher.

  • A sharp drop in the US Dollar Index and the ongoing cold snap with minimal snow cover for the Plains sent wheat futures sharply higher to start the week.

  • To see the one-week GFS precipitation forecast for South America and the 8–14 day US temperature outlook both courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Target Range: 495 to 515 for the March ’25 contract.

  • Weekly Close: The March ’25 contract posted a strong weekly close, finishing above the May 2024 high of 475.50. This marks the highest close since the week of December 4, 2023.

  • Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, the next resistance range lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • March ’25 Contract Levels: The March ’25 contract has nearly returned to the price range of 487 to 508 (vs. December ’24), where Grain Market Insider recommended the first 2024 corn crop sales during the summer of 2023 and spring of 2024.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • First Resistance: Resistanceremains at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract.

  • Downside Risk: Failure to rally over 459.75 poses the risk of range-bound trading, with the bottom end of the range at 428.00.

  • Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract eventually succeeds in rallying above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.

  • Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 4–6 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices ended the trading day higher, driven by growing concerns over the heat and dry weather in South America and tariff delays.

  • Recent rainfall in Argentina’s primary growing region has not alleviated concerns about the ongoing drought, which threatens to harm yields. After nearly a month-long drought and recent heatwaves in the area, some analysts argue that the rain arrived too late to reverse the damage caused by the drought. Last week, the 24/25 corn crop was cut to 48 mmt (1.89 bb) by the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange, due to adverse weather conditions, this is down from the 50 mmt it previously estimated.

  • Weekly export inspections for corn totaled 61 mb, surpassing the 51 mb needed to meet the USDA’s forecast of 2.450 bb. Year-to-date, corn exports stand at 758 mb, up 31% from the same period last year. The top destinations were Japan with 18 mb, Mexico with 13 mb, and South Korea with 11 mb.

  • AgRural estimates that Brazil’s second corn crop is less than 1% planted, a significant decrease from the 5% average for this time of year.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 470, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Larger overhead resistance now comes in just below 500.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 38,882 contracts between January 7 – January 14, bringing their total position to a net long 292,228 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract entered the 1060–1080 target range again on Tuesday (1/21), reaching an intraday high of 1068.

  • From the Lows: At Tuesday’s close of 1067.25, the contract stood over one dollar above its December low of 947.00, marking a solid rally worth capitalizing on.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have covered a significant number of short positions and are now net-long soybeans, further supporting the idea that now is an ideal time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher, taking out the recent high from the 14th in the March contract. The dollar was significantly lower which supported all of the grains today, but rain that is delaying the Brazilian harvest was supportive as well. Soybean meal led the complex higher with a gain of $13.80 in March, while bean oil was only slightly higher.

  • Weather in South America remains mixed: Argentina saw weekend rain, while persistent rainfall in Brazil is delaying the harvest and raising potential quality concerns.

  • With President Trump officially in office, trade was likely expecting tariffs to be ordered yesterday along with the slew of executive orders. While that was not completed yesterday, it is expected to go into effect on February 1 which could pressure markets.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans by 63,445 contracts, which left them with a net long position of 34,833 contracts. Funds are nowhere near record long and have the ability to continue buying if weather remains a concern.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 63,445 contracts between January 7 – January 14, bringing their total position to a net long 34,833 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed higher, led by Kansas City futures. A cold snap in the central U.S., minimal snow cover, a weaker U.S. dollar, and fund short-covering boosted prices.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 9.6 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 488 mb, which is up 24% from last year. Inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace; exports are estimated at 850 mb for 24/25, which would be up 20% from the year prior.

  • According to Chinese customs data, December wheat imports totaled 150,000 metric tons, down 74.5% year-over-year. Year-to-date imports of 11.18 million metric tons are down 7.6% from last year.

  • Russia exported $87.3 million in wheat to China in 2024, a 2.5x increase from 2023’s $34.7 million. Australia remained the top supplier with $1.08 billion in exports.

  • The new military-run state buyer for Egypt is rumored to have purchased a significant volume of wheat directly from Russia. While this has not yet been confirmed, there is also talk that four Egyptian ships have been sent to Russia for loading, with a combined capacity of 250,000 mt.

2024 Crop:

  • Target 680 – 705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 Chi wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 Chi wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing.

2026 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • With daily trading volume in the July ‘26 contract increasing to start the New Year, and nearly 90 cents of carry between the March ‘25 and July ‘26 contracts, we recommend making your first sale for the crop you’ll plant this fall.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,756 contracts between January 7 – January 14, bringing their total position to a net short 94,393 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 650 – 700 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,748 contracts between January 7 – January 14, bringing their total position to a net short 37,606 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Potentially targeting a rally to the 610–635 range versus March ’25 for additional sales of your 2024 crop. While this is the initial area of interest, the near-record short position held by the Funds suggests that this target range could shift as future price action develops.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,087contracts between January 7 – January 14, bringing their total position to a net short 28,298 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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1-17 End of Day: Corn Market Leads Grains Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, January 20, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr Day.

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn closed above the May 2024 high of 475.50 on the front-month continuous chart, reaching its highest level since early December 2023.

  • Soybeans ended a three-day losing streak with a double-digit rebound, supported by easing trade war concerns following reports of positive phone discussions between President-elect Trump and Chinese President Xi.

  • Wheat markets continue to struggle, managing only meager gains of one to two cents as bullish drivers remain nowhere to be found.

  • To see the U.S. 6 to 10-day precipitation and temperature outlook courtesy of NOAA Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Target Range: 495 to 515 for the March ’25 contract.

  • Weekly Close: The March ’25 contract posted a strong weekly close, finishing above the May 2024 high of 475.50. This marks the highest close since the week of December 4, 2023.

  • Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, the next resistance range lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • March ’25 Contract Levels: The March ’25 contract has nearly returned to the price range of 487 to 508 (vs. December ’24), where Grain Market Insider recommended the first 2024 corn crop sales during the summer of 2023 and spring of 2024.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • First Resistance: Resistanceremains at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract.

  • Downside Risk: Failure to rally over 459.75 poses the risk of range-bound trading, with the bottom end of the range at 428.00.

  • Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract eventually succeeds in rallying above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.

  • Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 4–6 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market closed the week with strong gains as buyers returned. Concerns over Argentina’s weather and a technical breakout helped drive money flow into the front-end of the market.

  • Wet weather is expected to return to Argentina’s dry areas, but long-range forecasts turn drier by Friday. These concerns reintroduced weather premiums into the market.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated the corn crop at 39% good-to-excellent, down from 42% last week, with 14% rated poor, up from 9%. Adverse weather continues to pressure crop conditions.

  • Corn futures saw significant technical improvement, breaking through resistance from earlier price highs. This sets the stage for potential follow-through when trading resumes next week.

  • Managed funds are steadily amassing a substantial long position in the corn market. As of January 7, hedge funds held a net long of 253,346 contracts, with expectations for further growth following last Friday’s bullish USDA report.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 470, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Larger overhead resistance now comes in just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract entered the 1060–1080 target range on Tuesday, reaching an intraday high of 1064.

  • From the Lows: At Tuesday’s close of 1047.50, the contract stood one dollar above its December low of 947.00, marking a solid rally worth capitalizing on.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have covered a significant number of short positions and are nearing a net-neutral stance, further supporting the idea that now is an ideal time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly higher, breaking three days of consecutively lower closes and gaining back nearly all of yesterday’s losses. New weather forecasts today saw a drier pattern in Argentina and southern Brazil which spurred fund buying. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher as well.

  • Estimates for Brazilian soybean production has been increased by Agroconsult to 172.4 mmt which would be an 11% increase from last season. This compares with the USDA at 169 mmt and CONAB at 166 mmt.

  • While yesterday’s export sales for soybeans were within the average trade guess, some Chinese buyers have reportedly switched to cheaper Brazilian soybeans ahead of President Trump’s inauguration on Monday. With the sharp increase in the value of the dollar over the past few months combined with the weakened real, Brazilian soy offers are much more competitive.

  • While Argentina’s dry streak is expected to be broken within the next few days, some damage has already been to the crop with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowering good to excellent ratings by 13 points. Only 8% of the crop is pod filling at this point.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite the strength of corn and soybeans today, not much of it spilled over into wheat. Chicago contracts gained about a penny, while Kansas City was mixed to lower, and Minneapolis posted small gains. The US Dollar Index was on the rise again today, adding to pressure.

  • Also offering weakness to the US wheat market are the new crop supplies coming out of Argentina and Australia, which are both said to be cheaper than US offers. Thailand reportedly purchased 195,000 mt of feed wheat with most of that coming from Australia and a little bit from the US. Furthermore, Russian FOB values are said to have declined as well.

  • On a bullish note, Russia’s cap to wheat exports has led SovEcon to project Russian exports at 43.7 mmt, falling below the USDA’s estimate of 46 mmt. In related news, Russia’s ag ministry is said to have raised the wheat export tax by 10.7% to 4,699.60 Rubles per mt through January 27.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat harvest is 100% complete as of January 16. Their production estimate remains steady at 18.6 mmt, compared with a 15.1 mmt crop last year.

  • The International Grains Council has reduced their estimate of world grain stockpiles for the 24/25 season to 573 mmt. This compares to 576 mmt in the November estimate. However, this reduction is primarily for corn and barley. In fact, wheat stocks are expected to increase to 265 mmt vs 263 mmt previously.

2024 Crop:

  • Target 680 – 705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 Chi wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 Chi wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell the first portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • With daily trading volume in the July ‘26 contract increasing to start the New Year, and nearly 90 cents of carry between the March ‘25 and July ‘26 contracts, we recommend making your first sale for the crop you’ll plant this fall.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 650 – 700 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

2024 Crop:

  • Potentially targeting a rally to the 610–635 range versus March ’25 for additional sales of your 2024 crop. While this is the initial area of interest, the near-record short position held by the Funds suggests that this target range could shift as future price action develops.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 6 to 10-day precipitation outlook courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

Above: US 6 to 10-day temperature outlook courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

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1-16 End of Day: Grain Markets Close Red

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, January 20, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr Day.

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures finished lower as South American weather conditions improved, and Canada proposed a counter tariff.

  • Soybeans closed lower for the third consecutive day, pressured by overbought conditions and improving weather forecasts in South America.

  • Wheat followed the trend of other grain markets today, closing lower across all three wheat classes.

  • To see the U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.  

  • With March futures knocking on the door of their highest level since May 2024 and continuous corn up roughly 25% from the pre-harvest low in August, it is time to reward this rally.

2025 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • The December ’25 corn contract attempted to re-enter the 455–475 target range, reaching a high of 456.75 today but was subsequently rejected.

  • This marks the fourth consecutive day the contract has approached within three cents or less of the October high of 459.75 without breaking through. This area is proving to be a strong resistance level.

  • First support remains at the November low of 428.00. If the contract fails to break above 459.75, range-bound trading is likely to continue, with a potential retest of the lower end of the range.

  • If the December ’25 contract breaks above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential sales recommendation.

  • Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance. This strategy would protect current sales while allowing you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished moderately lower on Thursday, with overall grain market weakness prompting some long liquidation. An improved weather forecast for South America, along with Canada’s proposal for a counter tariff, likely contributed to the selling pressure in corn. For the week, March corn futures are trading 4 cents higher heading into Friday’s session.

  • The USDA released weekly exports sales on Thursday morning.  For the week ending January 9, U.S. exporters posted new sales of 1.024 MMT (40.3 mb) for the current marketing year. Total sales commitments for the marketing year are at 1.585 bb, which is up 28% over last year and ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA exports target.

  • Forecasts have shifted to a wetter outlook for the dry areas in Brazil and Argentina, helping to alleviate crop stress caused by hot and dry conditions. Additionally, the wetter regions in Brazil are expected to dry out, which will allow for the harvest and planting of the second crop of corn to gain momentum.

  • The Canadian government proposed a counter tariff plan on U.S. imports totaling $105 billion dollars.  One item that may be impacted could be U.S. ethanol imports, which approximately 35% of U.S. exported ethanol goes to Canada.

  • Corn futures may face pressure from technical trading in the near term. The corn market is currently in an overbought condition, with managed hedge funds estimated to hold a near-record net long position. Additional selling pressure could weigh on the market heading into the 3-day weekend on Friday.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 460, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 480 with larger resistance just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • The March ’25 contract reached the 1060–1080 target range Tuesday, with an intraday high of 1064.

  • At Tuesday’s close of 1047.50, the contract stands one dollar above its December low of 947.00.

  • With Funds covering a significant number of short positions and nearing a net-neutral stance, now is an opportune time to capitalize on the rally. 

2025 Crop:

  • The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. No sales recommendations are planned until at least the peak of the U.S. growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower, marking a third consecutive decline and pushing the March contract back below the 100-day moving average. The selloff was likely driven by overbought conditions leading funds to take profit, as well as favorable weather conditions in South America. Both soybean meal and oil also saw lower prices.

  • Today’s export sales report saw an increase of soybean sales of 20.9 million bushels for 24/25, which was in line with the average analyst estimate. Sales were down 27% from the prior 4-week average. Primary destinations were to China, Bangladesh, and Mexico. Last week’s export shipments of 54.2 mb were above the 21.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

  • Yesterday’s NOPA crush report for December saw soybean crush at 206.60 million bushels, setting a record for the month as several new processing facilities have begun operations. This exceeded the average trade estimate of 203 million bushels.

  • While Argentina’s dry streak is expected to be broken within the next few days, some damage has already been to the crop with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowering good to excellent ratings by 13 points. Only 8% of the crop is pod filling at this point.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three classes of wheat experienced selling pressure on Thursday, following the trend of other grain markets and failing to hold recent gains. The weak price action and disappointing technical close may leave wheat prices susceptible to further selling pressure as the week comes to a close.

  • USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning.  For the week ending January 9, U.S. exporters posted new sales of 513,400 MT (18.9 mb) for the current marketing year.  South Korea was the largest buyer of U.S. wheat for that time period.  Total export commitments are at 644 mb, up 9% from last year, but behind the pace to reach USDA export targets.

  • The International Grains Council (IGC) left its world wheat production forecast at 796 million tons.  The IGC lowered their Russia crop forecast but balanced that total with a forecasted strong Australian crop.  For 2025-26 growing season, the IGC sees wheat production rising to a possible record of 805 million tons, up 1% year-on-year.

  • Consultancy Strategie Grains raised its 2025-26 soft wheat production forecast for the European Union, citing higher-than-expected plantings in Germany. The firm now projects the 2025 EU wheat crop at 127.2 MMT, up 600,000 MT from its initial forecast and 13 MMT above last year.

2024 Crop:

  • Target 680 – 705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 Chi wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 Chi wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell the first portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • With daily trading volume in the July ‘26 contract increasing to start the New Year, and nearly 90 cents of carry between the March ‘25 and July ‘26 contracts, we recommend making your first sale for the crop you’ll plant this fall.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 650 – 700 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

2024 Crop:

  • Potentially targeting a rally to the 610–635 range versus March ’25 for additional sales of your 2024 crop. While this is the initial area of interest, the near-record short position held by the Funds suggests that this target range could shift as future price action develops.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

Above two: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.