• Soybeans were unchanged to slightly higher to end the day in more quiet trade. President Trump’s tariff and trade threats to China have kept prices lower, along with the government shutdown and lack of data. November was unchanged at $10.06-1/2 while March was up ¼ cent to $10.39-3/4. December meal was up $1.60 to $275.90 and December bean oil was up 0.23 cents to 50.80 cents.
• The U.S. announced it may provide an additional $20 billion in financing to Argentina to ‘help our neighbors.’ The Argentine peso fell slightly on the news, which could make Argentine grains more affordable for importing countries.
• Soybeans have come under pressure following increased rhetoric from President Trump, including suggestions that tariffs on China could rise and that the U.S. may no longer need to buy soybean oil from China, potentially ending that trade.
• In Brazil, soybean planting is reportedly 14% complete as of October 9, according to AgRural. This would compare to 9% last week and 8% at this time last year. This is the third fastest planting pace for the country on record for this time of year.

• Soybeans ended the day quietly lower but rebounded from earlier morning lows. November was down 1-1/4 cents to $10.06-1/2 and March was down ½ cent to $10.39-1/2. December bean meal was up $0.20 to $274.30 and December bean oil was down 0.03 cents to 50.57 cents.
• Futures are still well below all major moving averages following President Trump’s threat of additional Chinese tariffs on Friday. China imported a near record amount of soybeans in September, but none from the United States. Export sales have been decent despite this.
• With the government still shut down, no USDA reports are being released, but estimates for crop progress have been released. The soybean harvest is estimated to be 58% complete, which compares to a Reuters poll last week of 39%. Crop ratings are estimated to be unchanged from last week at 61%.
• In Brazil, soybean planting is reportedly 14% complete as of October 9, according to AgRural. This would compare to 9% last week and 8% at this time last year. This is the third fastest planting pace for the country on record for this time of year.

• Soybeans ended Monday’s session with gains following this morning’s announcement that the U.S.-China meeting is still on track. Traders remain optimistic that the meeting could lead to progress in resolving the trade war. Soybeans and soybean oil posted modest gains, while soybean meal experienced losses. November soybeans closed up 1-0 at 10.07-¾.
• China purchased 12.87 million tons of soybeans in September, according to the General Administration of Customs, up 13.2% from 11.37 million tons a year earlier. This made September’s soybean imports the second-highest on record, according to Reuters, driven by strong purchases from South America, as trade tensions prevented any significant purchases from the United States.
• As of Sunday, the U.S. soybean harvest is estimated at around 58% complete, slightly above the five-year average of 57%, but still behind last year’s pace of 64%.
• Brazilian soybean plantings have advanced 5%, reaching 14% complete, well above last year’s pace of 8%. Rain over the past weekend benefited the beans already planted, and monsoon rains are expected to continue across Brazil. Improving soil moisture should support additional planting. CONAB is expected to release updated production estimates tomorrow. Estimates put planted area up 47.4 million ha to 49.1 million ha this season and production is anticipated to hit 179 million tons up from 171.5 million last year.

• Soybeans closed the week lower across the entire complex, on weakness in bean oil on an unexpected rise in September Malaysian palm oil stocks reaching a two-year high and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the outcomes of the upcoming U.S.-China meeting in early November. November soybeans are down 15-½ cents at 10.06-¾.
• China continues to show little interest in U.S. soybeans. After returning from their Golden Week holiday, Chinese crushers purchased roughly half a dozen cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for December shipment. This development is concerning for traders, as the window for U.S. soybeans to meet China’s import needs narrows ahead of the South American harvest in early 2026. Adding further uncertainty, President Trump indicated Friday that the planned meeting with China’s President Xi later this month may no longer take place.
• The U.S. soybean harvest is estimated to be 39% complete and is expected to reach 58% by the end of the upcoming weekend. These estimates come from private analysts, as the USDA is not releasing reports during the government shutdown.
• The area of U.S. soybeans affected by drought increased by 2%, reaching 39%, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The five-day outlook indicates continued dry conditions, followed by above-average precipitation during days 6 to 10.
• The continued absence of fundamental data — following a second week without export sales reports or commitments of trader positions — is keeping the market in a broad near-term range until the government reopens. In this environment, prices are increasingly sensitive to headlines and technical signals.

• Soybeans pulled back today after seeing gains yesterday. There appears to be some skepticism now regarding talks next month between President Trump and China’s President Xi. November soybean futures closed 7-1/4 cents lower to $10.22-1/4.
• U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins stated in a cabinet meeting today that once the government shutdown ends, a new program for farmers can be implemented.
• Weekly export sales data was delayed due to the government shutdown but many analysts are still expecting soybean sales between 0.6 and 1.6 mmt for the week of October 2.
• StoneX reported on Wednesday that they see Brazil’s biodiesel demand increasing more than 6% in 2026 to 10.5 billion litres. The group also said they see an increase in soybean oil usuage as well.
• The 8-14 day weather outlook shows above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for much of the Western soybean belt.

• The soybean market wrapped up the midweek trading session with gains across the entire soy complex. Markets remain encouraged by optimism surrounding the potential upcoming meeting between President Trump and China’s President Xi, which could have implications for trade and tariffs. November soybean futures are trading up at $10.29 ¾.
• A major obstacle for U.S. soybean markets and a potential trade deal with China is the upcoming implementation of port fees on Chinese vessels entering U.S. ports, scheduled to begin October 14. Some analysts fear these fees could derail any progress on trade negotiations between the U.S. and China.
• With the government shutdown delaying USDA reports, trade estimates are being used as a proxy. Today’s trade estimates put the average U.S. soybean yield at 53.2 BPA, with ending stocks at 317 million bushels, up from 300 million in September. Global ending stocks are expected to decline slightly. While U.S. soybean yields showed a modest drop, the decline was less pronounced than that seen in corn.
• Argentina’s oilseed workers had planned a strike today over wages and benefits, but the government intervened and initiated a mandatory 15-day conciliation period to negotiate a deal. Historically, such strikes have tended to support U.S. soybean meal and oil prices.
• Brazil’s soybean exports are projected to reach 102.2 million tons through the end of October, surpassing the previous record of 101.3 million tons for this period set in 2023, according to Anec figures. The surge is driven by strong Chinese demand and the absence of U.S. soybean shipments to China, which has redirected purchases to Brazil.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

• Soybeans ended Tuesday’s session with modest gains, holding onto trade optimism that a potential meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi in early November could lead to renewed Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans. In today’s trade, soybeans and soybean oil are posting slight gains, while soybean meal trended lower. November soybean futures closed at $10.22.
• Harvest activity continues to advance rapidly across the U.S. with progress nearing 40% completion, slightly behind the 47% reported at this time last year. These figures are based on private analyst estimates, as official government data were not released yesterday due to the government shutdown.
• Harvest pressure remains a significant obstacle for soybean markets, as weather across most of the Midwest looks ideal for harvesting over the next five days, before the 6–10 day forecast shifts to above-normal precipitation.
• Planting in Brazil is 9% complete, progressing toward the second-fastest pace on record. In Mato Grosso, planting has reached 15%, well ahead of the 6.1% average for this time of year. Soil moisture conditions are expected to improve next week, with increased precipitation in the forecast. President Trump and Brazilian President Lula held a phone meeting yesterday, which both sides described as constructive, with additional calls scheduled. Brazil continues to benefit from the U.S.–China trade tensions, as September soybean exports rose 20.2% year over year, while soybean meal exports increased 19.1%.
• The U.S. dollar is trading higher again today; however, U.S. soybean prices remain well below South American levels, and it would take a significantly larger dollar rally to narrow that gap.

• Soybeans began the week on a weaker note, with Monday’s trading session ending lower amid concerns over the ongoing government shutdown. Traders faced the prospect of another week without key government data, including export inspections, the harvest progress report, Commitment of Traders data, and the WASDE report scheduled for later this week. Soybeans and soybean meal moved lower, while soybean oil posted modest gains. November soybeans closed down at $10.17 ¾.
• Export inspections totaled 28 million bushels, in line with expectations but below the 33 million bushels per week needed to meet the USDA’s export forecast. Year-to-date inspections stand at 111 million bushels, down 15% from last year, compared to the USDA’s projected 10% decline. The largest buyers this week were Mexico and Egypt, each taking 7–8 million bushels.
• Soybean planting in Brazil is progressing, with 9.15% of the crop planted and 15.03% completed in Mato Grosso, compared to the average pace of 6.10% for this time of year. Dry weather across much of Brazil this week has supported steady fieldwork, though wet season showers are expected to return next week, which could slow planting progress.
• Port fees on Chinese vessels entering U.S. ports are expected to take effect on October 14. Some reports suggest that China may be reconsidering participation in a meeting with President Trump at the APEC Summit in South Korea, pending resolution of the port fee dispute. Meanwhile, trade talks with India are progressing, with positive discussions continuing around India’s potential imports of U.S. soybeans for both oil production and animal feed.
• The U.S. soybean harvest is 39% complete, compared to 44% last year and the five-year average of 38%. Crop ratings are expected to hold steady at 62% good to excellent.

• Soybeans closed in the red on the day after looking to have found some momentum at midday. November soybeans lost 5-3/4 cents to $10.18-00 while the March contract was down 4 cents to $10.51-1/4.
• The market will continue to monitor the upcoming meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi as the two leaders will likely discuss soy products.
• S&P Global has lowered their U.S. soybean yield projection by 0.8 bpa to 53 bpa. This compares to StoneX at 53.9 bpa and the USDA at 53.5 bpa.
• Rain is expected for parts of the Western Corn Belt next with some areas seeing up to 2 inches of moisture. This may risk harvest delays.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans for a new farmer support program amid weak Chinese demand, though details remain uncertain given the government shutdown.

• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher for the second consecutive day following President Trump’s bullish tweet yesterday, stating that some tariff income could go to farmers and that soybean exports would be a major point of conversation when he meets with President Xi in a month.
• November soybeans gained 10-3/4 cents to $10.23-3/4 and are just below the 50-day moving average, while March beans are up 10 cents to $10.56-1/4. October soybean meal gained $6.60 to $271.30 and were a major driver of the soy complex today, while October soybean oil 0.07 cents 49.82.
• Following the excitement of yesterday, speculative traders are believed to have purchased 30,000 contracts of soybeans, 6,500 of soybean oil, and 3,000 of soybean meal. Funds are estimated to remain short around 12,000 soybean contracts, however.
• StoneX has increased their soybean yield estimate by 0.7 bpa to 53.9 bpa and raised their production figure by 69 mb to 4.326 bb. This comes in about 25 mb higher than the USDA’s estimate on the September WASDE report.