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8-28 End of Day: Positive Export Data Supports Corn and Wheat; Soybeans End the Day Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Monday, September 1, in Observance of Labor Day

 

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: The corn market wrapped up Thursday’s trade with gains, receiving support from strong weekly export sales that continue to show demand.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean prices closed mostly higher but were ultimately mixed, as ongoing concerns over U.S.-China trade tensions kept market sentiment cautious.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat finished the day with gains, finding support by a weaker U.S. dollar and a positive export report.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw a turn on the charts technically as the selling pressure from first notice day left the market, and prices reversed higher off the session lows. September corn finished 3 cents higher to 385 ½, while December futures added 4 cents to 410. December corn finished 6 ½ cents off the session low.

  • Corn futures traded on the session low and posted a bullish reversal on daily charts. The improved technical signal could bring additional buyer support, but follow-through price action will be key going into the Labor Day weekend.

  • Weekly corn export sales for corn stay supportive of the market. For the week ending August 21, old crop corn sales saw net cancellations of 18,000 MT (.7 mb) with the marketing year ending on August 31. New crop sales totaled 2.090 MMT (82.3 mb) and were near the top end of expectations. Mexico was the largest buyer of corn last week.

  • New crop corn sales totaling 82.3 mb for this week, this has total new crop corn sales at 739 mb, nearly double last year for this time window. Historically, only 2021 was off to a stronger start. If next week’s sales total over 66 mb, 2025-26 marketing year will surpass the 2012-22 marketing year.

  • U.S. and China trade are holding trade negotiations in Washington at the end of the week. Development of a trade deal or lack of progress could pressure markets on Tuesday after the Labor Day holiday.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day mostly higher with the September contract up 1 cent at $10.28-1/4 and the November contract up ½ cent at $10.48. October soybean meal was lower by $1.40 closing at $282.90 and October soybean oil was down by 0.77 cents at 51.95 cents. Pressure is coming from fears that China will not buy U.S. soybeans.

  • So far, China has made no new crop soybean purchases from the U.S., sourcing mainly from Brazil. As a result, basis in various parts of North Dakota that export through the PNW have seen basis fall between 1.50 and 1.80 under futures.

  • Today’s export sales report was decent for soybeans with a net cancellation of 7.0 million bushels for 24/25 but an increase of 50.4 mb for the 25/26 marketing year. Top buyers were Spain, Indonesia, and South Korea. Last week’s export shipments of 15.0 mb were below the 17.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

  • The USDA projected the national soybean yield at 53.5 bpa, while Pro Farmer estimated it at 53.0 bpa, and many traders think the actual number will be closer to 53.0. Weather has been drier than usual for August, but soil moisture levels were good enough coming into the month to maintain crop conditions.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed higher today, gaining 8 cents for September Chicago to 510-1/4. Meanwhile, September Kansas City was up 1-1/4 cents to 486-3/4 and September MIAX was up 4-1/4 to 555-1/4. A drop in the U.S. Dollar Index was supportive to the market. Additionally, today’s GDP report showed the economy grew at a 3.3% annualized rate in the April–June period, surpassing expectations and potentially providing additional support to the grain complex.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 21.3 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 36.9 mb, which was well above the 17.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s 875 mb export goal. Wheat sales commitments now sit at 445 mb for 25/26, which is 23% up from last year.

  • Argus media has increased their estimate of Russian 25/26 wheat production to 86.1 mmt. This is up 1.3 mmt from their June estimate and compares to the USDA at 83.5 mmt. If realized, this would be the third largest Russian wheat crop on record. In addition, Argus also kept their estimate of French soft wheat production unchanged at 33.4 mmt.

  • This morning, Stats Canada released updated crop estimates. All wheat production was pegged at 35.55 mmt, which was below the average pre-report estimate of 35.9 mmt. However, this is still above the USDA forecast of 35 mmt. Of the total, spring wheat is expected to account for 26 mmt.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 606.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 651 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 656 target has been lowered to 651.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • NEW ALERT – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop today. The first sale recommendation that Grain Market Insider made for the 2026 crop was at 678.75. A second sale here today will bring the sales average price to approximately 654 vs September ‘26 futures.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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8-27 End of Day: Soybeans Trend Sideways While Corn and Wheat Slip Lower Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures slipped Wednesday. Corn lacks a bullish spark, with delivery pressure and muted export sales outweighing supportive ethanol data.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans traded mixed before finishing lower today. Soybean futures are treading water as traders balance good yield potential against uncertainty over China demand and U.S. export prospects.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures led the grain market lower Wednesday. Global wheat supplies remain ample and rising production estimates continue to weigh on futures.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures closed lower on Wednesday as September lost 5 cents to $3.82-1/2 and December fell 3-1/2 cents to $4.06. With First Notice Day looming Friday, old-crop pricing and long liquidation continue to weigh on the market. Charts look weak, leaving room for additional downside.

  • September pressure persists. Open interest remains above 80,000 contracts, and producers holding basis contracts will need to make pricing decisions this week, adding volatility to the nearby contract.

  • The weekly ethanol report saw production at 2,000 barrels per day, which compares to the average trade guess of 1,073 bpd and last week’s figure at 1,072 bpd. Stocks were 100,000 barrels lower and were down from 22.688 million bbl.

  • Export demand has been quiet over the last week. USDA has not reported a flash sale since Aug. 22 as U.S. and Brazilian prices converge. Trade chatter suggests Taiwan may have booked corn out of the PNW, though only sales over 100,000 MT would trigger USDA reporting.

  • Dry and cool weather seems to be the dominant theme in the near-term for U.S. weather. Parts of the Eastern Corn Belt are observing their driest August in over 100 years. Talk of “Flash Drought” may start hitting the market as the dryness may push the maturity speed on the corn crop.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower and traded on either side of unchanged throughout the day. September closed down 1-1/2 cents at $10.27-1/4 and November fell 2 cents to $10.47-1/2. October soybean meal slid $6.20 to $284.30, while October soybean oil eased 0.31 cents to 52.72 cents. With first notice day Friday, many traders are exiting September longs and rolling into deferred contracts.

  • Trade optimism remains in focus. China confirmed it will send a top negotiator to Washington to meet U.S. officials and business leaders this week, though not in a formal negotiating session. Beijing continues to link major purchases — including soybeans and Boeing planes — to the removal of tariffs.

  • The USDA projected the national soybean yield at 53.5 bpa while Pro Farmer estimated it at 53.0 bpa, and many traders think the actual number will be closer to 53.0. Weather has been drier than usual for August, but soil moisture levels were good enough coming into the month to maintain crop conditions.

  • The bearish story for soybeans is the possibility that a trade deal with China does not get achieved, and in this case, the USDA would need to revise export estimates lower which would in turn raise the carryout number past the last estimate of 350 mb for 25/26.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat led the way to the downside today with September Chicago posting a 7-1/4 cent loss to 502-1/4, while September Kansas City was down 7-1/2 to 485-1/2. September MIAX took the biggest hit, closing down 15-1/4 cents to 551. Pressure likely stemmed from anticipation that tomorrow, Statistics Canada’s updated estimates will show increased wheat production; the average pre-report estimate for all wheat production comes in at 35.9 mmt versus 34.4 mmt August last year.

  • The Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics (ABARE) is anticipated to release an updated wheat production forecast for their nation next week. It is expected to be well above the June estimate of 30.6 mmt, with many private analysts thinking the harvest could be closer to last year’s 34.1 mmt crop.

  • The Indian government has reportedly reduced the limit of wheat stockpiles for traders and wholesalers from 3,000 mt to 2,000 mt. Retailers also saw a reduced requirement from 10 mt to 8 mt, and these restrictions will be in place until the end of March 2026.

  • European Union soft wheat exports for the 25/26 season are down 48% year on year. Since the season began on July 1, only 2.18 mmt of wheat has been exported, compared with 4.15 mmt a year ago. The top importer was Saudi Arabia, followed by Morocco and Nigeria.

  • Ukraine’s largest farming union, UAC, has stated that their country’s 2025 wheat production estimate has a maximum of 21.8 mmt. This would be a decrease from the 2024 crop that totaled 22.7 mmt. Currently, Ukraine’s economy ministry is estimating the output at 21 mmt, but the UAC said this does not account for production from small farmers.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 606.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 657 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 657 target has been lowered to 656.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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8-26 End of Day: Soybeans Edge Higher on China Trade Hopes; Corn Slips on FND Pressure

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures slipped lower on Tuesday. Crop ratings remained strong as of Sunday coming in at 71% good-to-excellent.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended higher Tuesday. Support came from reports that China may send a top trade negotiator to the U.S.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended mixed. Support came from strong U.S. export inspections, but gains were capped by larger Russian crop estimates and favorable U.S. weather.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw selling pressure as the influence of First Notice Day, and technical selling pressured the market. September corn futures finished 1 ¾ cent lower to 387 ¼, and December futures lost 2 ¾ cents.

  • December failed to break resistance at 417 on Monday, sparking follow-through selling. Next support lies near 405, with the psychological 400 level below that.

  • September contracts face added pressure ahead of Friday’s First Notice Day, as producers weigh pricing decisions on old-crop bushels.

  • Crop ratings remain strong at 71% good-to-excellent, a point above expectations. Progress is in line with averages at 44% dented and 7% mature.

  • Brazil’s second corn harvest is 94.8% complete, up 5.5 points from last week. Farmer selling remains slow, with just over 50% of the record crop sold.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher with the September contract up 3-1/4 cents at $10.28-3/4 while November was up 1-3/4 cents at $10.49-1/2. October meal gained $1.50 to $290.50, while October oil slipped 1.47 cents to 53.03. Support came from reports that China may send a top trade negotiator to the U.S.

  • In what may be a sign of progressing trade talks between China and the U.S., China has said it would send a key trade negotiator to meet with U.S. officials and business leaders. This is not included in a formal negotiating session. Before making any commitments to purchase soybeans or Boeing planes, Beijing is demanding the removal of the 20% tariffs.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw soybean ratings improve one point from last week to 69% good to excellent. 89% of the crop is setting pods which is on par with the 5-year average while 4% is dropping leaves. This is compared to 6% at this time last year and the 5-year average of 4%.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections were sluggish at 383k tons, which compared to 503k a week ago and 420k a year ago. Top destinations were to Indonesia, Mexico, and Italy.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures ended mixed Tuesday. September Chicago gained 2-3/4 cents to 509-1/2, while Kansas City lost 3-3/4 cents to 493 and Minneapolis fell 5-3/4 cents to 565-3/4. Support came from strong U.S. export inspections at 34.8 mb — well above expectations and more than double the prior week — but gains were capped by larger Russian crop estimates and favorable U.S. weather.

  • Storms rolling through the Southern Plains are bringing widespread rainfall ahead of winter wheat planting, pressuring Kansas City futures as the added moisture should give the crop a strong start.

  • According to yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report, the U.S. winter wheat crop is 98% harvested. As for the spring wheat crop, conditions dropped 1% from last week to 49% good to excellent. Additionally, that crop harvest jumped from 36% to 53% complete, which is now just 1% behind the average pace.

  • IKAR has reportedly increased their estimate of Russian wheat production by 0.5 mmt to 86 mmt. For reference, the USDA figure is sitting at only 83.5 mmt. IKAR also raised their Russian wheat export projection by 0.5 mmt to 43 mmt.

  • LSEG commodities research is predicting that more heavy rains for Argentine wheat regions will arrive by the end of the week. Totals could be 20-45 mm (about 3/4 to 1-3/4 inch) above normal, with a likelihood for higher amounts in the south. With soil moisture levels already adequate, this is raising some concern about root rot and other disease issues for their wheat crop.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 606.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 657 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 657 target has been lowered to 656.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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8-25 End of Day: Soybeans Slip on Stalled China Trade Deal, Corn Ends Higher Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed slightly higher Monday, supported by strength in wheat, expectations for tighter supplies, and a firm demand tone.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower Monday. Prices retreated from morning highs amid trade concerns over a stalled China deal.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat began the week mixed, with Chicago posting modest gains while Kansas City edged slightly lower

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished slightly higher on the session, supported by the wheat market, the prospects of a tighter supply and favorable demand tone. September corn finished 1 cent higher to 389 ½ and the December contract gained ¾ cent to 412 ¼.

  • Pro Farmer pegged national corn yield at 182.7 bpa (range 180.9–184.5) on Friday afternoon, well below USDA’s 188.8 bpa forecast. The market is weighing a final outcome between the two, with shrinking crop potential and solid demand underpinning prices.

  • Export inspections stayed strong, with 1.302 MMT shipped in the week ending Aug. 21 — near the high end of expectations and up 29% from last year. The marketing year closes Aug. 31.

  • Concerns regarding fungus issues in the corn crop may push the crop toward the finish line faster than producers want, that could limit potential yield. Crop ratings and Maturity ratings on Monday’s crop progress report could reflect the impact.

  • September futures will be moving towards first notice day on Friday this week. This could bring volatility and pressure to the September contract as producers may need to make pricing decisions regarding old crop bushels. 

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 31,464 contracts between August 12 – August 19, bringing their total position to a net short 144,650 contracts.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower with the September contract down 11 cents at $10.25-1/2 and November down 10-3/4 cents at $10.47-3/4. October soybean meal was up $0.70 at $289 while October soybean oil was down 0.44 cents to 54.50 cents. Prices faded from earlier morning highs as trade worries about a lack of a Chinese trade deal.

  • Comments from China over the weekend highlighted “rampant” U.S. protectionism threatening agricultural ties, fueling concern that a trade agreement may not materialize.

  • Pro Farmer pegged the national soybean yield at 53.0 bpa, slightly below USDA’s 53.6 bpa estimate. Disease issues similar to those seen in corn were noted, which could support prices later if conditions worsen.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 35,273 contracts which flipped their net short position to a net long position of just 3 contracts. They sold 13,070 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 31,342 contracts and bought back 24,070 contracts of meal leaving them short 85,239 contracts.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 35,273 contracts between August 12 – August 19, bringing their total position to a net long 3 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat began the week with mixed performance. Chicago wheat posted modest gains, while Kansas City wheat ended the day slightly lower. The market found some support from last week’s decline in the U.S. dollar, as well as a somewhat encouraging weekly export inspections report.

  • Weekly wheat inspections amounted to 34.8 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 212 mb, which is up 11% from last year. Inspections are running a little bit above the USDA’s estimated pace; total exports for 25/26 are projected at 875 mb, up 10% from last year.

  • In the southern hemisphere, Argentina saw some frost over the weekend in some wheat growing regions. This may have caused some wheat damage, and northern areas may see more frost in the coming days. Meanwhile, Australia saw heavy rains in western regions this weekend which should benefit their wheat. However, southeastern areas have been drier and need rain to help wheat that is in the reproductive stage.

  • According to Friday’s CFTC Commitments of Traders report, managed funds added about 8,800 contracts to their net short position in Chicago wheat. This was about a 10% increase, bringing the total number of shorts to just over 98,000. However, in Kansas City futures, they added only 825 short contracts, a change of just under 2% for the week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 606.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,837 contracts between August 12 – August 19, bringing their total position to a net short 98,132 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 657 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 825 contracts between August 12 – August 19, bringing their total position to a net short 51,380 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 161 contracts between August 12 – August 19, bringing their total position to a net short 23,619 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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8-22 End of Day: Pro Farmer Estimates Corn Yield at 182.7 bpa, Soybean Yield at 53.0 bpa

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn trade ended the week quiet and mixed. Pro Farmer pegged national corn yield at 182.7 bpa, well below USDA’s 188.8 bpa forecast, in projections released Friday after the close.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended higher Friday but retreated from session highs. Pro Farmer projected the national soybean yield at 53.0 bpa, slightly below USDA’s latest estimate of 53.6 bpa.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended the week mixed, with winter wheat contracts lower while spring wheat finished fractionally higher. A sharp decline in the U.S. dollar provided little support to the complex.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn trade ended the week quiet and mixed. September gained 1 cent to 388 ¼, while December slipped ¼ cent to 411 ½. For the week, September added 4 ½ cents and December gained 6 ¼.

  • USDA announced new flash sales Friday — Costa Rica purchased 119,796 MT (4.7 mb) and Spain 140,452 MT (5.5 mb) for 2025/26 — underscoring strong new-crop demand.

  • Hot, dry weather across Europe is stressing crops as they approach maturity, raising yield concerns and potentially increasing EU import needs. France’s Ag Ministry projects national corn output 5.6% below last year on dryness and heat.

  • Pro Farmer pegged national corn yield at 182.7 bpa (range 180.9–184.5), well below USDA’s 188.8 bpa forecast, in projections released Friday after the close.

  • September futures saw options expiration today and will be moving towards first notice day next Friday. This could bring volatility and pressure to the September contract as producers may need to make pricing decisions regarding old crop bushels.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher but slid off their daily highs into the close. September futures gained 2 cents to close at $10.36-1/2, 4 cents off their high, while November futures gained 2-1/2 cents to $10.58-1/2, also 4 cents off their high. Soybean oil led the complex higher with a gain of 1.20 cents to 54.84 in September while meal lost $0.10 to $296.70. Rumors of unconfirmed Chinese purchases supported the market.

  • The EPA issued decisions on 175 small refinery exemption petitions, granting 63 full waivers, 77 partial, and denying 28. The Renewable Fuels Association called the approach reasonable, and the outcome was viewed as supportive for soybean oil.

  • Pro Farmer’s survey reported strong soybean pod counts across most states. All but Indiana were above last year, and all exceeded the three-year average. Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota were sharply above average, with Illinois leading at 1,479 pods per 3’x3’ plot.

  • For the week, September soybeans gained 14-1/4 cents and between this and last week wiped out 5 prior consecutive weeks of losses. November soybeans gained 16 cents on the week, and September meal gained $13.30 while September bean oil gained 1.66 cents. Going forward, trade will look to a potential trade deal with China to establish whether this higher trend will continue.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat sustained small to modest losses today – September Chicago was down 2-1/4 cents to 504-3/4 while September Kansas City lost 5-1/4 cents to 498. Minneapolis MIAX futures fared slightly better with September up 1/4 cent at 569-1/2, though deferred contracts closed neutral to fractionally lower.

  • A sharp U.S. Dollar drop following Fed Chair Powell’s speech offered little support, while lower Matif wheat added pressure. Traders remain focused on heavy rains forecast for the U.S. Southern Plains, expected to benefit winter wheat planting.

  • The Russian agriculture ministry is reported to have re-established an export tax on wheat, at 32.1 Rubles/mt through September 2. Nevertheless, the recent price declines for U.S. wheat have made it much more competitive globally. U.S. HRW wheat is said to be at parity with offers from Russia and Argentina too.

  • Ukraine has collected 27.25 mmt of grain so far this season, down 5% from the 28.6 mmt harvested during the same time last year. Wheat accounted for 21 mmt of that total versus 21.7 mmt last year. About half of the wheat is said to be milling quality, and 1.7 mmt of it is being earmarked for making bread.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has stated that recent rains across Argentina’s growing region has helped to boost soil moisture levels and benefit the wheat crop. This moisture should aid in the uptake of nutrients when farmers add fertilizer. Total 25/26 planted area reached 6.7 million hectares, up from 6.3 million last season.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 606.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 657 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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8-21 End of Day: Positive Export Data Lifts Corn and Soybean Markets

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn markets ended the day with gains, driven by strong export demand.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean markets finished today’s trade higher, supported by gains in the soybean oil market and a positive export sales report.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Markets ended the day mixed, facing resistance from a stronger U.S. dollar and ongoing global harvest activity bringing new crop to market.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw buying support, strong export demand, and technical buying supported the market today as Dec corn closed at its highest point in nearly three weeks. September closed 7 ¼ cents firmer at 387 ¼, while December gained 7 ¾ cents to 411 ¾. 

  • USDA announced weekly exports sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending Aug 14, old crop corn sales saw reductions of 1.1 MMT, but new crop sales were an impressive 2.86 MMT (112.7 mb). Unknown destinations and Mexico were the largest buyers of US Corn last week. 

  • Total export sales for the new crop marketing year are 16.7 MMT (657 mb), which is up 111% over the pace last year and one of the strongest starts to the export program in the past 25 years. The current export total of 657 mb is 23% of the USDA target for the marketing year at 2.875 bb.

  • The Trump administration/EPA are expected to rule on a backlog of Small Refinery Exceptions (SRE) on Friday. The ruling could impact the blends of biofuels in consumer diesel and gasoline. If SRE’s are approved, the corn market may be impacted by a potentially less ethanol requirement. The potential ruling likely supported the corn and soybean markets on the session with short covering.

  • Pro Farmer will be completing its crop tour this afternoon and will release results for Iowa and Minnesota this evening. The Pro farmer group will release its corn and soybean yield estimates on Friday after the market closes.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The soybean markets ended higher on Thursday as the September contract gained 19 ¼ cents to $10.34 ½ and November Futures pushed 20 cents higher to close at $10.56.  The soybean oil market was a big support to soybeans on the session as the nearby Sept futures gained $2.44/lb on the session, closing at $53.64.  Soymeal futures slipped on spread trading with October meal down 1.10/ton to $290/ton..

  • In Illinois, the crop tour found soybean pod counts at 1,479.22 per 3’x3′ plot which compared to 1,419.11. Illinois soybeans may be weaker than initially thought. Western Iowa pod counts were better than last year between 1,279.25 in the Northwest and 1,562.54 in the Southwest.

  • Today’s export sales report was relatively good for soybeans with net sales reductions of 6k tons for the 24/25 marketing year and an increase of 1,143k tons for the 25/26 marketing year, which was above most trade estimates.

  • The Trump administration/EPA are expected to rule on a backlog of Small Refinery Exceptions (SRE) on Friday.  The ruling could impact the blends of biofuels in consumer diesel and gasoline. The potential ruling likely supported the soybean markets on the session with short covering being triggered in the soybean oil futures.

  • The soybean market saw a possible technical breakout for a bullish wedge pattern as prices have consolidated around recent highs.  The breakout of this pattern today likely triggered some technical buying and short covering in the market.  The key will be follow-through in upcoming sessions.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite leading the charge higher overnight, wheat gave back some of its early gains by the close. This also comes despite a sharp move upward for soybean and corn futures. September Chicago gained 1-1/2 cents to 507, and September Kansas City gained 2-1/2 cents to 503-1/4. The rise today in the U.S. Dollar Index and increased global harvest estimates may have limited the upside for wheat; the International Grains Council increased their 25/26 production figure by 3 mmt to 811 mmt versus the USDA at 807 mmt.

  • According to the USDA, as of August 19, an estimated 31% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, up 2% from the week prior. During the same timeframe, spring wheat areas in drought decreased by 2% to 14%. The recent rains in the U.S. northern plains are causing some concerns about quality of the portion of the spring wheat crop that has not yet been harvested.

  • Weekly wheat export sales totaled about 19 mb, which was at the low end of expectations. Year to date, wheat sales commitments have reached 424 mb, which is up 23% from last year and well above the USDA’s forecast of up 6%.

  • LSEG commodities research has kept their estimate of Canadian 25/26 wheat production unchanged at 35.0 mmt. However, they are anticipating heat risks over the next 10 days for Alberta and Saskatchewan, which could affect late season development.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 606.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 657 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

8-20 End of Day: Competitive U.S. Export Values Support Grains Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures edged higher Wednesday on light buying and continued demand support. USDA reported two flash sales Thursday morning as U.S. prices remain competitive globally.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans moved higher Wednesday as prices continue to consolidate above major moving averages.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Chicago wheat futures rebounded from fresh contract lows Wednesday, with KC and Minneapolis contracts also finishing higher. The recovery was driven by oversold conditions and competitive U.S. FOB Gulf values, which are trading roughly $10 below Russian offers.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecast maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures edged higher Wednesday on light buying and continued demand support. September closed ½ cent firmer at 380, while December added ¾ cent to 404.

  • USDA reported two flash sales Thursday morning—Mexico purchased 125,741 MT (5 mb) and Colombia 100,000 MT (3.9 mb) for 2025/26—as U.S. prices remain competitive globally.

  • Pro Farmer pegged Nebraska corn yields at 179.5 bpa (vs. 173.25 in 2024, 166.3 three-year avg) and Indiana at 193.82 bpa (vs. 187.54 in 2024, 182.09 thirty-year avg). The tour is moving into western Iowa and Illinois today.

  • The September corn options expire on Friday. The corn market may trade choppy going into options expiration as price flow to large areas of open interest for both September puts and calls.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-to-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended higher Wednesday, with September up 2 cents at $10.15 and November gaining 2 ¼ to $10.36. In products, September meal rose $4.60 to $292 while September oil slipped 0.48 cents to 51.20. November soybeans remain above all major moving averages and continue to consolidate.

  • Pro Farmer reported Nebraska pod counts at 1,348.3 per 3’x3’ square, above last year. Indiana pod counts came in at 1,376.6, below last year’s 1,409.

  • Brazil’s antitrust regulator (CADE) suspended the 20-year “Soy Moratorium,” ordering traders to end compliance within 10 days or face fines. The pact had barred purchases of soy grown on land cleared after July 2008. July exports totaled 12.3 mmt (+9% y/y), with 78% shipped to China. The move could boost Brazilian soybean and corn supply, heightening competition with the U.S.

  • The American Soybean Association urged President Trump to prioritize soybeans in U.S.–China trade talks, warning that retaliatory tariffs could shut U.S. farmers out of their largest export market heading into harvest.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After setting a new contract low Tuesday, Chicago wheat rebounded with September up 7 cents to 505 ½. Kansas City and Minneapolis posted smaller September gains, up 1 ¼ to 500 ¾ and up 1 ½ to 570, respectively. The bounce reflected oversold conditions and U.S. FOB Gulf values trading about $10 below Russian offers.

  • SovEcon raised its Russian wheat crop estimate by 0.2 mmt to 85.4 mmt, above USDA’s 83.5 mmt. Ongoing upward revisions to Russian output have weighed on global values in recent weeks.

  • Ukrainian grain exports have reached 3.1 mmt since their export season began on July 1. This represents a 52% decline from the 6.4 mmt shipped during the same time last year. Of the total, wheat accounts for 1.73 mmt, which is down 44% year over year.

  • Widespread rains across key winter wheat areas in the past month have left soil moisture above normal, improving crop prospects. Additional favorable rains are forecast in the coming weeks.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 606.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 608.50 target has been lowered to 606.75.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 657 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 658 target has been lowered to 657.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

From ag-wx.com

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8-19 End of Day: Grains Retreat Tuesday Ahead of Pro Farmer Tour Results

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures weakened Tuesday, with September down 4 ½ cents to 379 ½ and December 3 ¼ lower at 403 ¼. U.S. corn holds a strong price advantage, roughly 30 cents/bu under Brazil, keeping U.S. exports competitive.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures fell Tuesday after failing to break key resistance at $10.50 in November contracts. USDA reported a flash sale to Mexico of 228,606 MT (8.4 mb) for 2025/26. New-crop soybean sales remain at a 10-year low for this point in the season.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures closed lower Tuesday in sympathy with weakness in corn and soybeans during a broad risk-off trade. Spring wheat conditions improved 1% to 50% good/excellent, while harvest jumped 20 points to 36% complete.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecast maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw selling pressure on Tuesday as the front month September futures lost 4 ½ cents to 379 ½, and December futures traded 3 ¼ lower to 403 ¼.

  • The Pro Farmer Crop Tour reported South Dakota corn yields at 174.2 bpa (vs. 156.5 last year, 144.1 three-year avg) and Ohio yields at 185.7 bpa (vs. 183.3 last year, 180.5 thirty-year avg). Nebraska and Indiana results are due this evening.

  • Brazil’s second-crop corn harvest is 89.3% complete, up from 83% last week. Despite a record crop, farmer selling remains light due to low prices.

  • U.S. corn holds a strong price advantage, roughly 30 cents/bu under Brazil, keeping U.S. exports competitive as Brazilian farmers withhold sales.

  • The September corn options expire on Friday. The corn market may trade choppy going into options expiration as price flow to large areas of open interest for both September puts and calls.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-to-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures fell Tuesday after failing to break key resistance at $10.50 in November contracts. September closed 7 ¾ cents lower at $10.13, while November lost 7 ½ cents to $10.33 ¾.

  • USDA reported a flash sale to Mexico of 228,606 MT (8.4 mb) for 2025/26. Despite the sale, new-crop soybean sales remain at a 10-year low for this point in the season.

  • Pro Farmer found soybean pod counts above last year in both Ohio and South Dakota. Ohio averaged 1,287.28 pods per 3’x3′ plot (vs. 1,229.93 in 2024), while South Dakota came in at 1,188.45 (vs. 1,025.89 in 2024).

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean conditions unchanged from last week at 68% good to excellent with 95% of the crop blooming and 82% setting pods, both on par with the 5-year average. Forecasts remain wet through the end of the month.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures closed lower in sympathy with lower corn and soybeans, in a broad risk off trade today. September Chi lost 4-1/4 cents to 498-1/2, while September KC lost 6-3/4 to 499-1/2. MIAX contracts did post small gains, despite an increase for the spring wheat crop conditions; the September contract gained 3/4 cent to 568-1/2.

  • USDA reported winter wheat harvest at 94% complete, up 4 points from last week. Spring wheat conditions improved 1% to 50% good/excellent, while harvest jumped 20 points to 36% complete.

  • Heavy rainfall in Argentina over the past 24 hours has boosted soil moisture for winter wheat, though excessive wetness is raising root rot concerns in some regions. In Brazil, CONAB pegs planted wheat area at 2.55 million hectares, down 16.7% from last year, but projects 2025 output at 7.81 mmt—just 1% lower—on expectations of a 19% yield increase.

  • LSEG commodities research has estimated global 25/26 wheat production at 801.38 mmt. This represents a slight bump of 0.3% from their last estimate; higher production forecasts for Russia and the EU were largely offset by declines for the U.S.

  • The state grain buyer of Egypt has made a deal to purchase at least 200,000 mt of French wheat in private deals. They also agreed to purchase smaller amounts from Ukraine and Romania. Last December, their state purchases were taken over by a military organization, who import primarily by private deals. In contrast, the previous state buyer, GASC, imported via international tenders.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 608.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 612.25 upside target was lowered to 608.50.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 658 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 549 downside Plan B sale stop has been cancelled.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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8-18 End of Day: Grains Trade Mixed Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed mostly higher with modest gains, except for the September contract. Strong export demand and worries about dry conditions in the eastern Corn Belt bolstered prices.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended lower after overnight losses and intraday gains faded into the close. November futures remain above all major moving averages but face resistance at $10.60.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed slightly lower after a subdued session, with ample global supplies keeping prices under pressure. Recent rains in the northern Plains likely delayed the U.S. spring wheat harvest.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecast maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures closed mostly higher with modest gains, except for the September contract. Strong export demand and worries about dry conditions in the eastern Corn Belt bolstered prices.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of 124,000 metric tons (4.9 million bushels) of 2025/26 corn to an unknown destination, reinforcing strong new-crop export sales despite China’s absence.

  • Weekly corn export inspections were toward the bottom end of expectations as U.S. exporters shipped 1.05 MMT (41 mb) for the week ending August 14. This total was below the 53 mb needed to reach the revised USDA forecast of 2.820 bb. The marketing year ends at the end of August.

  • The Pro Farmer Crop Tour, currently underway, is closely watched by corn and soybean markets. Yield estimates for Ohio and South Dakota will be released tonight, with final national yield projections expected later this week.

  • Drier and warmer-than-normal conditions in the eastern Corn Belt are accelerating corn crop maturation, supporting futures prices but raising concerns about potential yield reductions due to a rushed finish.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 12th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,364 contracts between August 5 – August 12, bringing their total position to a net short 176,114 contracts.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-to-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures ended lower after overnight losses and intraday gains faded into the close. November futures remain above all major moving averages but face resistance at $10.60. Soybean meal closed lower, while soybean oil tracked crude oil higher.

  • On Friday, NOPA crush numbers were released, and July crush jumped to 195.699 million bushels which was well above the average trade guess of 190.8 mb and was a six-month high for the month of July. It was up 5.6% from the June’s 185.27 mb.

  • Forecasts predict warm summer temperatures and sufficient moisture through the rest of the month, aiding soybean pod fill. The USDA may raise yield estimates in the next report, but lower export demand could increase ending stocks.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 30,660 contracts which reduced their net short position to 35,270 contracts. They sold 10,527 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 44,412 contracts and bought back 24,238 contracts of meal leaving them short 109,309 contracts.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 12th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 30,660 contracts between August 5th – August 12th, bringing their total position to a net short 35,270 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed slightly lower after a subdued session, with ample global supplies keeping prices under pressure. Recent rains in the northern Plains likely delayed the U.S. spring wheat harvest.

  • Weekly wheat inspections amounted to 14.5 mb, which brings total 25/26 inspections to 177 mb, up 4% from last year. Inspections are running below the USDA’s estimated pace; total 25/26 exports are projected at 875 mb, up 10% from last year.

  • IKAR raised its Russian wheat production estimate by 1 million metric tons to 85.5 million metric tons, compared to the USDA’s 83.5 million metric tons. IKAR also projects Russian wheat exports at 42.5 million metric tons, above the USDA’s 39 million metric tons, adding to global supply pressure.

  • Widespread rain is expected across Argentina’s wheat regions, with southern areas potentially seeing frost but minimal crop damage. Northern areas, where wheat is starting to head, could face damage if frost occurs.

  • According to Chinese customs data, their July wheat and wheat flour imports totaled 410,000 mt, which is down 48.3% year over year. Year to date total wheat and wheat flour imports are down a whopping 76.4% at 2.37 mmt.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The 596 target was lowered to 594.25.

      • All targets are now vs the December contract.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 608.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 612.25 upside target was lowered to 608.50.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 12th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,526 contracts between August 5th – August 12th, bringing their total position to a net short 89,295 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 658 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 549 downside Plan B sale stop has been cancelled.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 12th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 6,508 contracts between August 5th – August 12th, bringing their total position to a net short 50,555 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 12th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 755 contracts between August 5th – August 12th, bringing their total position to a net short 23,458 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

|

8-15 End of Day: Grains End Week with Gains Ahead of the Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn ended Friday’s session with broad-based gains, supported by strong demand and strength in the soybean market.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures posted gains to close the day, supported by forecasts for drier conditions that raised concerns about late-season crop stress, giving the market a boost.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended the week slightly higher, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and spillover strength from the corn market, though they lacked the momentum seen in corn and soybeans to close out the week.

  • To see updated U.S. and Global weather outlook maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – yesterday the 420 puts closed at 28-1/4 cents.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the week with buying strength, supported by a short-covering rally and technical buying. A firm demand tone, dry conditions in the eastern Corn Belt, and strength in the soybean market also lent support. Despite shaking off pressure from a bearish USDA report, December corn futures ended the week down ¼ cent—marking the fourth consecutive week of lower trade.

  • Export demand has remained strong for new crop corn. Current corn sales on the books for the 2025-26 marketing year are the strongest in a decade and trending 208% above this time last year. U.S. corn should stay competitively priced in the near term and export sales should reflect the advantage.

  • With a record corn crop still in the forecast, market attention is turning to late August weather. Currently, the eastern Corn Belt is trending dry, raising concerns that continued dryness could trim top-end yield potential and push the crop to maturity too quickly.

  • The corn market has built an improved technical signal this week after the USDA report. December corn charts established a potential double bottom on Tuesday and Thursday lows. Today, Dec corn closed above the 10-day moving average. Technical strength likely triggered some technical short covering.

  • Next week could bring volatility into the corn market. Pro Farmer will run its annual crop tour from August 18-20, and the corn market will be watching the yield results. The September options expire on Friday, August 22, and markets may show some extra volatility into this event.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher, taking back nearly all of yesterday’s losses ahead of the weekend. A drier forecast for part of the Corn Belt next week may have added support while significantly higher soybean oil prices also helped the soy complex, but soybean meal was lower.

  • NOPA soybean crush was released today and showed 195.699 million bushels crushed in the month of July which was a six-month high and was above trade expectations of 191 million bushels. Domestic demand remains firm for soybean oil, but large crush numbers are causing a glut of soybean meal.

  • Weather forecasts throughout the rest of the month call for warm summer temperatures and enough moisture to get through pod fill. It is possible that the USDA increases yield again in the September report, but it is also possible that export demand is lowered which could see the ending stocks number increase.

  • For the week, September soybeans gained a whopping 54-1/2 cents to $10.22-1/4 and took back all losses over the past three weeks. November soybeans gained 55 cents to close at $10.42-1/2. September soybean meal gained $6.80 to $283.40 while September soybean oil gained 0.47 cents to 53.18 cents.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Winter wheat futures closed slightly higher today, though spring wheat could not do the same. Despite a drop in the U.S. Dollar Index, wheat just did not seem to find the same footing today as corn and soybeans. A lower close for Matif wheat did not offer any support, and neither did the lack of fresh bullish news today.

  • Western Australia’s grain association, GIWA, increased their wheat harvest estimate by 2.1 mmt to 11.5 mmt due to favorable growing conditions. Despite the increase, this would still be down about 1 mmt from last year’s crop. Nationally, the wheat crop is anticipated to be near last year’s production of 34 mmt.

  • The Ukrainian agriculture ministry reports that their grain harvest has reached 24.8 mmt so far this season. This represents a roughly 13% decline from the 28.5 mmt harvested in a similar timeframe last year. Wheat accounts for 19 mmt of that total, compared to 21.7 mmt a year ago.

  • India has seen plentiful rains due to monsoons, which have helped to replenish water reservoirs. This should be beneficial for winter wheat, much of which relies on irrigation. India’s wheat crop is typically planted in October and November, and the nation’s farm secretary is expecting a higher planted area for winter crops this season.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The 596 target was lowered to 594.25.

      • All targets are now vs the December contract.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 612.25 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 608.50 upside target was raised to 612.25.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • Call buy target is now vs the December contract.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 658 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 661 upside sale target was lowered to 658.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The upside call buy stop target is now vs the December KC contract.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.