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2-13 End of Day: Grains Respond Positively to Weekly Export Report

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 17, in observance of Presidents Day

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn closed the day quietly and mixed, following Tuesday’s neutral USDA report, and as traders await fresh news to bring back momentum in the market.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day higher, despite a weak weekly export sales report for the crop.

  • Wheat: Wheat closed the day with gains across all three classes, supported by a break in the US Dollar Index and a positive export sales report.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Last Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider last recommended a sale for the 2024 crop on February 4 at 494.50.

  • Strong Resistance at 498.50: Since January 29, the March ‘25 contract has attempted to break the 500 level seven times, but each effort has fallen short, with intraday highs ranging from 496.50 to 498.50. A decisive break above 498.50 could pave the way for a run toward the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • Strategy: No Plan B for now—Grain Market Insider recently recommended a sale within the current range, so the focus remains on giving March ‘25 a shot at clearing 498.50. If it breaks through, the next upside target would be 512, just below the 1996 high of 513.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 corn crop at the current price level.

  • Major Resistance at 479: December ‘25 faces strong resistance at 479. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential as we move into the spring planting window.

  • Potential Call Option Strategy: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a possible call option recommendation. This strategy would hedge against existing sales while positioning you for upside exposure in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–3 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn had a quiet, mixed close, with the front months gaining a few cents while December was down by less than a penny. Following Tuesday’s neutral USDA report, traders may be awaiting fresh news, with attention shifting back to South American weather and tariff talks.

  • Weekly corn exports came in at 79 mb, with 65 mb in old crop sales, and 14 mb in 25/26 sales. This was above expectations and YTD commitments are at 1.827 billion, up 28% from YA vs the USDA forecast of up 7%. The big buyers were Japan at 18 million, Korea at 13, and Mexico and Colombia each bought 10 million.

  • This morning CONAB released updated production estimates for Brazilian crops, raising the corn forecast by 2.5 mmt to 122 mmt and edging closer to the USDA projection of 126 mmt. However, the Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their corn production figure by 2 mmt to 46 mmt; the USDA stands at 50 mmt. These adjustments essentially offset each other, which may have contributed to today’s generally neutral trade.

  • The second half of February is expected to bring better rain chances to much of Argentina, offering relief from heat and dryness and helping to stabilize crops. However, it may be too late to undo any damage sustained up to this point. Meanwhile, Brazil’s forecast looks to improve over the next week, which should support a quicker pace for safrinha planting.

Corn Bulls in Control, Eyeing Key Resistance
The corn market’s post-harvest rally remains intact, driven by strong fund buying and robust demand. Solid support holds at 475, with additional footing near the breakout zone around 450. On the upside, prices are pressing against the 500 mark — a critical resistance level that could dictate the next move. With buyers still engaged, all eyes are on whether momentum can propel corn beyond this key threshold.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Break of 1039: The March ‘25 contract closed below 1039 for the first time since January 17, setting a new monthly low by breaking the February 3 low of 1031.75. This marks the first lower low since the market bottomed on December 19, interrupting the previous pattern of higher highs and higher lows that led to the February 5 high of 1079.75.

  • Possible Trend Change: The break below 1031.75 could indicate a potential trend shift, but confirmation would require additional downside follow-through in the coming sessions.

2025 Crop:

  • Recent Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently advised selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop and purchasing call options. For full details, see the recommendations summary table below.

  • Current Recommendation: Hold off on any additional actions for now. With recent recommendations in place, Grain Market Insider is comfortable waiting for higher price levels, especially given how early it is in the year.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans finished the day slightly higher after recovering from a lower overnight trade. Despite weak export sales, new CONAB estimates were released, showing a more favorable outlook compared to the USDA. Soybean meal closed lower, while soybean oil ended higher, even with a dip in crude oil prices.

  • Today’s export sales report was disappointing for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 6.8 million bushels of export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.9 mb for 25/26. This was well below the lowest analyst estimate, and primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and the Netherlands. Last week’s export shipments of 40.5 mb were above the 18.6 mb needed each month to meet the USDA’s expectations.

  • CONAB released its new estimates for 24/25 grain production this morning and lowered them from the previous month. The new estimates for soybeans are 166.014 mmt which compared to 166.328 mmt in January. This is below the USDA’s last estimate of 169 mmt.

  • South American weather has improved and prices in Brazil have become much more competitive with the US. The USDA is estimating Brazilian soybean production at 169 mmt while other firms are closer to 172 mmt, a huge crop either way.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures have repeatedly tested but failed to clear resistance at the 200-day moving average in recent weeks — a stubborn ceiling that has limited upside momentum for over 18 months. A decisive close above this level would be a strong signal for potential further upside. Support is expected to be near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted modest gains across all three classes, with Kansas City futures leading the way. In fact, wheat was the top performer in the grain complex today, benefiting from a break in the US Dollar Index and a decent export sales report. In other news, wire services reported this afternoon that the Senate has confirmed Brooke Rollins as the new head of the USDA.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 20.9 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, and an increase of 1.4 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 21.2 mb, which is above the 19.6 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal at 850 mb. Total sales commitments have reached 704 mb for 24/25, which is up 9% from last year, whereas the USDA is looking for a 20% increase.

  • According to the USDA, as of February 11, an estimated 23% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions; this is unchanged from the week prior. Meanwhile, spring wheat areas in drought decreased from 45% to 40% for that same time period. Given the large snowstorm that just moved through the central US, conditions may show further improvement next week.

  • In an update from FranceAgriMer, French soft wheat exports for the 24/25 season are anticipated to reach 9.74 mmt. This is up just slightly from their January estimate at 9.735 mmt. Furthermore, the stockpiles estimate was reduced from 2.89 mmt to 2.81 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • No Change: The 680-705 range for March ‘25 remains the next potential target for a sale.

  • Slide Ended: The March ‘25 contract snapped its four-day losing streak today, posting a nearly four-cent gain. The overall pullback from the February 7 high appears constructive and orderly, which could set the stage for a move back higher.

2025 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stuck in Neutral – For Now
Chicago wheat continues to tread familiar ground, locked in a tight range between 530 and 577. The market is searching for a spark, and a breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could open the door for a push toward 617. On the flip side, if support at 536 cracks, sellers may take control, driving prices down toward the 521–514 support zone. For now, wheat remains in wait-and-see mode, poised for its next big move.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop on February 5 at 591.75 vs March ‘25.

  • No Official Targets: Following the latest sales recommendation, there are currently no active target ranges to make additional sales.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Attempts to Break Out
Kansas City wheat futures kicked off February on a strong note, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. A decisive close above the October peak of 623 could open the door for a rally toward the 700 level. On the downside, initial support lies near the 200-day moving average, with stronger support around 575.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop.

  • Latest Sales Rec: This is the first sale recommendation that Grain Market Insider has made for the 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop since June 7 of last year.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop.

  • Stalling Momentum: The September ’25 contract has struggled to maintain its upward momentum, facing strong resistance around 660 for the past four sessions. With the price up about 8% from the January 3 low of 605, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2025 new crop Minneapolis wheat today. This marks the first recommendation for the 2025 crop since July 23 of last year.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout: Rally or False Start?
After months of treading water, spring wheat finally found its spark in late January, surging beyond its previous range and signaling a potential breakout. The next big test lies at the 200-day moving average near 625, a level that could either fuel further momentum or stand as a stubborn ceiling. However, any near-term weakness or a close back below 613 could snuff out the rally, pulling prices back into their familiar rangebound pattern.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above two: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-12 End of Day: Corn Recovers, Soybeans Continue Lower Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures rebounded today, recovering some of yesterday’s losses despite weakness in other grains. New crop contracts pushed to fresh highs for 2025.

  • Soybeans: Extended their decline on Wednesday, dropping by double digits. Ongoing harvest pressure in Brazil, along with weaker soybean prices in both Brazil and China, weighed on the market.

  • Wheat: Found support from stronger corn futures, helping prices stabilize and close near unchanged on the day.

  • To see the updated GRACE-Based shallow groundwater drought indictor for the U.S. as well as the 30-day percent of normal rainfall for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Last Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider last recommended a sale for the 2024 crop on February 4 at 494.50.

  • Strong Resistance at 498.50: Since January 29, the March ‘25 contract has attempted to break the 500 level seven times, but each effort has fallen short, with intraday highs ranging from 496.50 to 498.50. A decisive break above 498.50 could pave the way for a run toward the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • Strategy: No Plan B for now—Grain Market Insider recently recommended a sale within the current range, so the focus remains on giving March ‘25 a shot at clearing 498.50. If it breaks through, the next upside target would be 512, just below the 1996 high of 513.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 corn crop at the current price level.

  • Major Resistance at 479: December ‘25 faces strong resistance at 479. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential as we move into the spring planting window.

  • Potential Call Option Strategy: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a possible call option recommendation. This strategy would hedge against existing sales while positioning you for upside exposure in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–3 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures found support on Wednesday as buyers stepped back in, erasing most of Tuesday’s losses despite overall grain market weakness. Strong demand continues to underpin prices.

  • The corn market was disappointed in the lack of changes on Tuesday USDA Supply/demand report, but traders may have stepped into the corn market on the belief that the USDA will need to reduce carryout in future reports as both export and ethanol demand have remained strong.

  • The USDA announced a flash corn export sales on Wednesday morning. USDA stated that unknown destinations purchased 130,320 mt (5.1 mb) of corn for the current marketing year. 

  • On Thursday morning, the USDA will release weekly corn export sales totals. Expectations for the week ending Feb 6, the new exports sales range from 800,000 – 1.7 MMT. Last week’s sales totaled 1.477 MMt as U.S. corn export demand has remained supportive.

  • Weekly ethanol production fell to 1.082 million bpd in the week ending February 7. This was down from 1.112 million bpd the previous week.  Corn used in the production of ethanol was estimated at 104.3 million bushels for the week.  The current pace is still trending ahead of the target set by the USDA for the marketing year.

Corn Bulls in Control, Eyeing Key Resistance
The corn market’s post-harvest rally remains intact, driven by strong fund buying and robust demand. Solid support holds at 475, with additional footing near the breakout zone around 450. On the upside, prices are pressing against the 500 mark — a critical resistance level that could dictate the next move. With buyers still engaged, all eyes are on whether momentum can propel corn beyond this key threshold.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Break of 1039: The March ‘25 contract closed below 1039 for the first time since January 17, setting a new monthly low by breaking the February 3 low of 1031.75. This marks the first lower low since the market bottomed on December 19, interrupting the previous pattern of higher highs and higher lows that led to the February 5 high of 1079.75.

  • Possible Trend Change: The break below 1031.75 could indicate a potential trend shift, but confirmation would require additional downside follow-through in the coming sessions.

2025 Crop:

  • Recent Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently advised selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop and purchasing call options. For full details, see the recommendations summary table below.

  • Current Recommendation: Hold off on any additional actions for now. With recent recommendations in place, Grain Market Insider is comfortable waiting for higher price levels, especially given how early it is in the year.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans extended their losses for a second consecutive session following Tuesday’s WASDE report, which left U.S. carryout unchanged despite trade expectations for a decline. Pressure continues from Brazil’s ongoing harvest and signs of a peak in soybean prices on China’s Dalian exchange. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower.

  • Private exporters reported a sale of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year this morning. However, U.S. export sales have begun to slow as Brazil’s export season gains momentum.

  • In China, soybean futures on the Dalian exchange may be topping out. In addition, Brazilian soybeans are 80 cents cheaper per bushel compared to the US. China has primarily been a buy of Brazilian and Argentinian soybeans.

  • Weather in Argentina has improved with rain falling and more in the forecast. While the USDA reduced their estimates for Argentinian soybean production yesterday, a large crop is still expected, and Argentinian soybean meal prices have reached their lowest levels since Covid.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures have repeatedly tested but failed to clear resistance at the 200-day moving average in recent weeks — a stubborn ceiling that has limited upside momentum for over 18 months. A decisive close above this level would be a strong signal for potential further upside. Support is expected to be near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures fluctuated throughout the session but ultimately closed with small losses, pressured by weaker soybean prices, easing winterkill concerns, and reports of potential Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations. A sharp decline in Matif wheat futures also failed to offer support to U.S. prices.

  • The snowstorm moving across the central US should provide snow cover to help insulate much of the winter wheat crop before the upcoming frigid temperatures. This has reduced the concern on traders’ minds of damage to the winter wheat crop. Furthermore, the Black Sea region is expected to receive good snow cover to help protect their wheat too.

  • News outlets have reported that President Trump had a phone call today with Putin, in which they discussed the Ukraine war among other topics. Reportedly, Putin has agreed to begin negotiations to end the war. And though Ukraine has already been highly successful in shipping grain in the face of logistics issues, this still may be perceived as negative to prices.

  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports as of February 9 have reached just 13 mmt since the season began on July 1. This represents a 36% drop from the 20.4 mmt shipped for the same timeframe last year.

2024 Crop:

  • No Change: The 680-705 range for March ‘25 remains the next potential target for a sale.

  • Uptrend Intact: Despite a four-day pullback, the March ‘25 contract continues to hold a pattern of higher highs and higher lows.

2025 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stuck in Neutral – For Now
Chicago wheat continues to tread familiar ground, locked in a tight range between 530 and 577. The market is searching for a spark, and a breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could open the door for a push toward 617. On the flip side, if support at 536 cracks, sellers may take control, driving prices down toward the 521–514 support zone. For now, wheat remains in wait-and-see mode, poised for its next big move.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Attempts to Break Out
Kansas City wheat futures kicked off February on a strong note, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. A decisive close above the October peak of 623 could open the door for a rally toward the 700 level. On the downside, initial support lies near the 200-day moving average, with stronger support around 575.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop.

  • Latest Sales Rec: This is the first sale recommendation that Grain Market Insider has made for the 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop since June 7 of last year.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop.

  • Stalling Momentum: The September ’25 contract has struggled to maintain its upward momentum, facing strong resistance around 660 for the past four sessions. With the price up about 8% from the January 3 low of 605, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2025 new crop Minneapolis wheat today. This marks the first recommendation for the 2025 crop since July 23 of last year.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout: Rally or False Start?
After months of treading water, spring wheat finally found its spark in late January, surging beyond its previous range and signaling a potential breakout. The next big test lies at the 200-day moving average near 625, a level that could either fuel further momentum or stand as a stubborn ceiling. However, any near-term weakness or a close back below 613 could snuff out the rally, pulling prices back into their familiar rangebound pattern.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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2-11 End of Day: WASDE Sparks Grain Market Correction

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Long liquidation pressured corn futures lower after the USDA’s WASDE report left the U.S. corn balance sheet unchanged from last month.

  • Soybeans: Improving weather in Argentina and a neutral WASDE report pushed soybean futures lower on Tuesday. Soybean meal slipped back below the $300 mark, while soybean oil managed to end slightly higher.

  • Wheat: A slight reduction in wheat ending stocks in today’s WASDE report wasn’t enough to spark a rally, as declining corn and soybean prices added additional pressure to the market.

  • To see the updated 10-day GEFS total accumulated precipitation forecast for South America as well as the 8–14-day U.S. temperature and precipitation outlooks, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • Sales Target Range: With the March ‘25 contract facing continued resistance at the lower end of the 495 – 515 target range, Grain Market Insider recommended making a sale on Tuesday. The upper end of the target range at 515 remains a key level to watch. If March ‘25 corn can close over the recent high of 498.50, Grain Market Insider will consider the 515 area as another potential sales target.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart remains between the recent high of 498.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION: Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 corn crop today.

  • Target Range Hit: The December ’25 contract tested the 473–479 target range today, reaching an intraday high of 474. Although it couldn’t sustain those gains, the session still closed at 470.25, marking the second-highest close since the rally began on November 29 from a low of 428. With prices now up nearly 10% from that low, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2025 new crop corn today.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A strong close above this level could open the door to broader upside potential as we head into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge against existing sales and get you repositioned to the topside in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–3 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The front end of the corn market came under strong selling pressure as the USDA WASDE report failed to make any changes to the U.S. corn balance sheet. The weak technical close and selling momentum into the end of the session could leave the corn market open to additional selling pressure going into tomorrow’s session.

  • The USDA kept 2024/25 corn ending stocks at 1.540 billion bushels, while analysts had expected a 15 mb reduction due to strong demand. The higher-than-anticipated carryout led to long liquidation.

  • The USDA lowered forecasted production for Argentina by 1 MMT and Brazil by 1 MMT reflecting the difficult start to the growing season in some regions. However, February weather conditions in both regions have improved.

  • The cash market has seen soft basis action, which could be an indicator that corn supplies are in the pipeline and front-end demand could be cooling. The corn market is moving toward a key pricing window as the March contract nears First notice day at the end of February.

Corn Bulls in Control, Eyeing Key Resistance
The corn market’s post-harvest rally remains intact, driven by strong fund buying and robust demand. Solid support holds at 475, with additional footing near the breakout zone around 450. On the upside, prices are pressing against the 500 mark — a critical resistance level that could dictate the next move. With buyers still engaged, all eyes are on whether momentum can propel corn beyond this key threshold.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendations: Grain Market Insider recommended selling portions of your 2024 soybean crop on January 14 at 1047.50 and again on January 22 at 1056.00, both against the March ‘25 contract. The average of these two sales is 1051.75, which is 2-½ cents above today’s March ‘25 closing price.  If you missed either of the January sales recommendations, now is still a good time to catch up, as the March ‘25 contract remains within that price range. Additionally, with a USDA WASDE report set for release tomorrow, securing a sale ahead of time could be wise—especially if the USDA reports numbers that put pressure on the soybean market.

  • Off Highs: The March ‘25 contract finished last week up nearly 8 cents, but 30 cents off the high of 1079.75.

  • Resistance: The March ‘25 contract was again unable to secure a weekly close above the start of the resistance band at 1060 last week. The last time the front-month contract closed above this level on a weekly continuous chart was the week of September 23 last year.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying November ‘25 1100 soybean calls and November ‘25 1180 soybean calls in equal quantities with a total net spend of approximately 88 cents plus commission and fees.   Buying these call options will reopen the topside on the sales recommendation made two weeks ago.  Also, buying two strikes provides the option to leg out of the lower strike once it covers the cost of the upper strike. 

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop on January 29 at 1063.50 vs November ‘25.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended lower after a neutral WASDE report failed to provide the bullish support traders were hoping for. Prices were up earlier in the day but retreated as the report offered no surprises. Soybean meal led the decline on improving Argentinian weather, while soybean oil found support from rising crude oil prices.

  • The WASDE report held U.S. ending stocks steady at 380 mb, despite market expectations for a slight reduction. Global soybean ending stocks dropped to 124.3 mmt from 128.4 mmt, in line with forecasts.

  • Regarding South America, the USDA did make some changes to South American production. In Argentina, soybean production was lowered by 3 mmt from last month to 49.0 mmt. This was expected given the recent dry spell in the country. In Brazil, soybean production estimates were left unchanged at 169 mmt, but some analysts have estimates closer to 171 mmt.

  • Brazil is reportedly 15% done with its 24/25 soybean harvest as of February 6. Prices in the country have been firm as strong export demand has kept supply limited.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures have repeatedly tested but failed to clear resistance at the 200-day moving average in recent weeks — a stubborn ceiling that has limited upside momentum for over 18 months. A decisive close above this level would be a strong signal for potential further upside. Support is expected to be near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes, as a relatively uneventful WASDE report failed to generate much buying interest despite being mildly supportive. The broader weakness in corn and soybeans likely added pressure to the wheat complex by the session’s end.

  • The report lowered U.S. 2024/25 wheat ending stocks by 4 mb to 794 mb, while traders had expected a slight increase to 800 mb. Global wheat carryout also declined from 258.8 mmt to 257.6 mmt, contrary to trade expectations for a steady figure.

  • US wheat exports were unchanged at 850 mb, with imports also holding steady at 130 mb. Australian wheat production was untouched at 32 mmt, but Argentina’s did increase by 0.2 mmt to 17.7 mmt. Meanwhile, Russian and Ukrainian exports were both dropped by 0.5 mmt, to 45.5 mmt and 15.5 mmt respectively.

  • Brazilian wheat prices remain firm amid limited supplies. January wheat imports totaled 716,900 mt, marking the highest monthly volume since April 2020 and the largest January total since 2008.

  • According to the French farm ministry, their estimate of soft winter wheat plantings has increased. For the 2025 harvest, the forecast was raised from 4.51 million hectares in December, to 4.57 million hectares as of Tuesday. Furthermore, this new estimate is 10% above 2024 and 0.4% above the five-year average.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 680-705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in SRW supports 680–705 as a realistic and achievable target. In the last three instances where the Funds held a similar net short position and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 140 cents, 90 cents, and 170 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June, providing ample time for potential upside.

2025 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stuck in Neutral – For Now
Chicago wheat continues to tread familiar ground, locked in a tight range between 530 and 577. The market is searching for a spark, and a breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could open the door for a push toward 617. On the flip side, if support at 536 cracks, sellers may take control, driving prices down toward the 521–514 support zone. For now, wheat remains in wait-and-see mode, poised for its next big move.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Attempts to Break Out
Kansas City wheat futures kicked off February on a strong note, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. A decisive close above the October peak of 623 could open the door for a rally toward the 700 level. On the downside, initial support lies near the 200-day moving average, with stronger support around 575.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop.

  • Latest Sales Rec: This is the first sale recommendation that Grain Market Insider has made for the 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop since June 7 of last year.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop today.

  • Stalling Momentum: The September ’25 contract has struggled to maintain its upward momentum, facing strong resistance around 660 for the past four sessions. With the price up about 8% from the January 3 low of 605, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2025 new crop Minneapolis wheat today. This marks the first recommendation for the 2025 crop since July 23 of last year.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout: Rally or False Start?
After months of treading water, spring wheat finally found its spark in late January, surging beyond its previous range and signaling a potential breakout. The next big test lies at the 200-day moving average near 625, a level that could either fuel further momentum or stand as a stubborn ceiling. However, any near-term weakness or a close back below 613 could snuff out the rally, pulling prices back into their familiar rangebound pattern.

Other Charts / Weather

South America 10-day GEFS Total Accumulated Precipitation, in millimeters, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

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2-10 End of Day: Corn Starts the Week Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: A daily flash sale to Mexico gave corn a positive start to the week, with traders positioning ahead of Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report.

  • Soybeans: Futures closed near unchanged Monday as the market awaits fresh insights from the upcoming WASDE report.

  • Wheat: Despite strong weekly export inspections and gains in Paris wheat futures, all three U.S. wheat contracts ended the session lower, led by losses in Kansas City wheat.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the week 2 South America precipitation forecast scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • Sales Target Range: With the March ‘25 contract facing continued resistance at the lower end of the 495 – 515 target range, Grain Market Insider recommended making a sale on Tuesday. The upper end of the target range at 515 remains a key level to watch. If March ‘25 corn can close over the recent high of 498.50, Grain Market Insider will consider the 515 area as another potential sales target.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart remains between the recent high of 498.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • Be Ready: Stay alert for a sales recommendation in the 473–479 range vs December ‘25.

  • Downside Support: Key support for the December ‘25 contract remains at 453.75 — an important level to watch in the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A strong close above this level could open the door to broader upside potential as we head into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge against existing sales and get you repositioned to the topside in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–3 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures started the week on a positive note, clawing back some of Friday’s losses as strong demand and tightening supply prospects kept the market supported.

  • USDA announced a flash export sale of corn om Manday morning. Mexico stepped into the export market and purchased 365,000 MT (14.4 MB) of U.S. corn for the current marketing year.

  • Weekly export inspections remain solid in a seasonally strong window. For the week ending February 6, the USDA reported 1.334 MMT (52.5 MB) inspected, landing at the high end of expectations. Total inspections for the marketing year now sit at 909 MB — up 34% from last year and ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA export projections.

  • On Tuesday, the USDA will release the next WASDE report. Expectations are for a slight reduction in corn carryout, reflecting the good pace of demand. The grain markets may be more interested to see if the USDA makes any adjustments to South American production.

Corn Rally Holding Strong as Buyers Stay Engaged
The corn market’s uptrend has been firing on all cylinders since harvest, fueled by eager fund buying and solid demand. Support is firmly in place at 475, with an extra layer of reinforcement near the breakout zone around 450. On the upside, prices are knocking on the door of 500, a key resistance level that could determine the next leg of this rally. For now, the bulls remain in control, but the market is watching closely to see if momentum can push corn through the next hurdle.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 13,496 contracts between January 28 – February 4, bringing their total position to a net long 364,217 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendations: Grain Market Insider recommended selling portions of your 2024 soybean crop on January 14 at 1047.50 and again on January 22 at 1056.00, both against the March ‘25 contract. The average of these two sales is 1051.75, which is 2-½ cents above today’s March ‘25 closing price.  If you missed either of the January sales recommendations, now is still a good time to catch up, as the March ‘25 contract remains within that price range. Additionally, with a USDA WASDE report set for release tomorrow, securing a sale ahead of time could be wise—especially if the USDA reports numbers that put pressure on the soybean market.

  • Off Highs: The March ‘25 contract finished last week up nearly 8 cents, but 30 cents off the high of 1079.75.

  • Resistance: The March ‘25 contract was again unable to secure a weekly close above the start of the resistance band at 1060 last week. The last time the front-month contract closed above this level on a weekly continuous chart was the week of September 23 last year.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying November ‘25 1100 soybean calls and November ‘25 1180 soybean calls in equal quantities with a total net spend of approximately 88 cents plus commission and fees.   Buying these call options will reopen the topside on the sales recommendation made two weeks ago.  Also, buying two strikes provides the option to leg out of the lower strike once it covers the cost of the upper strike. 

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop on January 29 at 1063.50 vs November ‘25.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the two front months unchanged and the deferred contracts slightly lower. Prices rebounded from overnight lows that followed President Trump’s announcement regarding new tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum. Both soybean meal and oil finished the day slightly lower.

  • Estimates for Tomorrow’s WASDE report suggest U.S. soybean ending stocks will decrease by 3 mb to 378 mb, while a potential increase in export demand is also expected. Global ending stocks are projected to remain unchanged or slightly lower. Big changes are not expected after last month’s bombshell yield adjustment.

  • In Brazil, weather has begun to dry up as producers continue with harvest. 16.78% of the planted area has now been harvested, and this compares to 23.83% last year at this time. The largest delays are in the country’s biggest producing state of Mato Grosso.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of just 533 contracts of soybeans which increased their net long position to 57,029 contracts as of February 4. Over the past 5 days, funds are estimated to have kept that position mostly unchanged.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures have repeatedly tested but failed to clear resistance at the 200-day moving average in recent weeks — a stubborn ceiling that has limited upside momentum for over 18 months. A decisive close above this level would be a strong signal for potential further upside. Support is expected to be near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 533 contracts between January 28 – February 4, bringing their total position to a netlong 57,029 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower led by Kansas City futures; this was despite the gains in Matif wheat and good export inspections. The US contracts were likely under pressure from expectations for better US and Black Sea snow cover this week, in addition to futures having become technically overbought. Also, tomorrow’s USDA report is expected to be relatively neutral for wheat and did not stir up any buying interest today.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 19.7 mb bring the 24/25 total inspections figure to 535 mb, which is up 24% from last year. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace, and 24/25 exports are estimated at 850 mb, up 20% from the year prior.

  • While frigid temperatures are expected across the U.S. Southern Plains this week, incoming snow should help insulate the winter wheat crop and prevent significant damage, potentially contributing to today’s market weakness. Similar conditions are expected in the Black Sea region.

  • On a bullish note, IKAR has reported that Russian wheat export values finished last week $2 higher at $245 per mt. They also decreased their estimate of Russian wheat exports by 0.5 mmt to 43 mmt; for reference the USDA is using a 46 mmt figure. Meanwhile, APK-Inform increased their forecast of Ukrainian 24/25 wheat exports by 0.1 mmt to 14.5 mmt.

  • According to consultancy ProZerno, the Russian 2025 grain harvest is estimated at 122.9 mmt, which would be down 1.7% from 2024. Wheat specifically is expected to fall 6% to 77.4 mmt. Additionally, they are expecting about 8.2% of the winter wheat crop to be lost, with a harvest on 16.1 million hectares.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 680-705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in SRW supports 680–705 as a realistic and achievable target. In the last three instances where the Funds held a similar net short position and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 140 cents, 90 cents, and 170 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June, providing ample time for potential upside.

2025 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stuck in Neutral – For Now
Chicago wheat continues to tread familiar ground, locked in a tight range between 530 and 577. The market is searching for a spark, and a breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could open the door for a push toward 617. On the flip side, if support at 536 cracks, sellers may take control, driving prices down toward the 521–514 support zone. For now, wheat remains in wait-and-see mode, poised for its next big move.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 20,340 contracts between January 28 – February 4, bringing their total position to a net short 90,442 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Weekly Gain: The March ’25 contract closed the week 25 cents higher, making it a solid opportunity for a sale. If the market continues its upward momentum, the next target range is 650–700.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in HRW reinforces 650–700 as a realistic and achievable target. Historically, when the Funds held a net short position exceeding 40,000 contracts and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 100 cents, 100 cents, 160 cents, and 70 cents in the last four instances.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June, providing ample time for potential upside.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop today.

  • WASDE tomorrow: The July ’25 contract has risen nearly 67 cents from its December low, closing at 616.50 today. With tomorrow’s USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates report adding uncertainty to the market, this current rally presents a good opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 KC wheat crop. This is the first sale recommendation for 2025 KC wheat since October 2 of last year.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Shows Signs of Life
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with the early February rally above the 200-day moving average a test of the October highs near 620 looks likely, support should appear at the top end of the recent range near 580.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 6,405 contracts between January 28 – February 4, bringing their total position to a net short 35,981 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop today.

  • Rally: The front-month contract has climbed nearly 50 cents from its January low, closing today at 625.25 vs March ‘25. Over the last four trading sessions, the March ‘25 contract has struggled to break through the 630 level, and with upside momentum stalling and the uncertainty of tomorrow’s WASDE report, this year-to-date rally presents a good opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop. This is the first sale recommendation that Grain Market Insider has made for the 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop since June 7 of last year.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • No Change: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout: Rally or False Start?
After months of treading water, spring wheat finally found its spark in late January, surging beyond its previous range and signaling a potential breakout. The next big test lies at the 200-day moving average near 625, a level that could either fuel further momentum or stand as a stubborn ceiling. However, any near-term weakness or a close back below 613 could snuff out the rally, pulling prices back into their familiar rangebound pattern.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 8,158 contracts between January 28 – February 4, bringing their total position to a net short 15,084 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

South America week two forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-07 End of Day: Grains Finished the Week Lower Across the Board

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn prices closed lower today, pressured by favorable weather conditions in South America, which provided the crops with much-needed relief.

  • Soybeans: Soybean prices ended the day lower, pressured by a stronger dollar and improved weather conditions in Argentina following recent rains.

  • Wheat: Wheat prices closed lower today, weighed down by declines in the corn and soybean markets, along with added pressure from a stronger US dollar.

  • To see the updated 10-day GEFS total accumulated precipitation for South America as well as the 6–10-day temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • Sales Target Range: With the March ‘25 contract facing continued resistance at the lower end of the 495 – 515 target range, Grain Market Insider recommended making a sale on Tuesday. The upper end of the target range at 515 remains a key level to watch. If March ‘25 corn can close over the recent high of 498.50, Grain Market Insider will consider the 515 area as another potential sales target.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart remains between the recent high of 498.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • Be Ready: Stay alert for a sales recommendation in the 473–479 range vs December ‘25.

  • Downside Support: Key support for the December ‘25 contract remains at 453.75 — an important level to watch in the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A strong close above this level could open the door to broader upside potential as we head into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge against existing sales and get you repositioned to the topside in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 2–4 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices finished 4-7 cents lower heading into the weekend on pressure from rain in South America and weakness in the wheat complex.

  • President Trump’s USTR nominee, Jamieson Greer, made comments yesterday that he favors a strong dollar policy, which cooled buying interest overnight and into Friday’s session.

  • If an agreement can be reached with Mexico before the implementation of tariffs, we could see Mexico start to buy even more corn in 2025 compared to the record 25.3 mmt they purchased in 2024.

  • Much of the Northern Midwest is seeing drought conditions and was highlighted by yesterday’s drought monitor. Drought conditions were 4% worse than last week to 46%. This compares to the 27% of the corn area in the US seeing drought conditions the same week last year.

  • The Mato Grosso region of Brazil continues to push forward with planting their second crop. Corn planting is now seen at 23% complete, up 6% from last week, but still below the 5-year average of 33% done by this time.

Corn Rally Holding Strong as Buyers Stay Engaged
The corn market’s uptrend has been firing on all cylinders since harvest, fueled by eager fund buying and solid demand. Support is firmly in place at 475, with an extra layer of reinforcement near the breakout zone around 450. On the upside, prices are knocking on the door of 500, a key resistance level that could determine the next leg of this rally. For now, the bulls remain in control, but the market is watching closely to see if momentum can push corn through the next hurdle.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider advised selling another portion of your 2024 soybean crop last week.

  • Off Highs: The March ‘25 contract finished the week up nearly 8 cents, but 30 cents off this week’s high of 1079.75.

  • Resistance: The March ‘25 contract was again unable to secure a weekly close above the start of the resistance band at 1060 this week. The last time the front-month contract closed above this level on a weekly continuous chart was the week of September 23 last year.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying November ‘25 1100 soybean calls and November ‘25 1180 soybean calls in equal quantities with a total net spend of approximately 88 cents plus commission and fees. The November ‘25 contract closed over 1071 resistance on Tuesday, which opens the door of opportunity for a continued move higher.  Buying these call options will reopen the topside on the sales recommendation made last week.  Also, buying two strikes provides the option to leg out of the lower strike once it covers the cost of the upper strike. 

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean prices ended the day lower, though they have remained relatively rangebound in recent weeks, with the March contract trading between $10.75 and $10.40. The stronger dollar likely weighed on the entire grain complex, and funds may have taken profits ahead of the weekend. While soybean meal closed lower, soybean oil ended the day higher.

  • Estimates for Tuesday’s WASDE report suggest U.S. soybean ending stocks will decrease by 3 mb to 378 mb, while a potential increase in export demand is also expected. Global ending stocks are projected to remain unchanged or slightly lower.

  • In South America, Argentinian soybean production was last estimated at 52 mmt but may slip due to recent dry weather. The Brazilian soybean crop is estimated at 170 mmt. Safras has pegged production higher at 174.88 mmt, but the recent harvest delays may have cut that number slightly.

  • Argentinian weather has improved recently with rains, but the dry stretch damaged the soy crop, and good to excellent ratings have fallen to just 17% while poor to very poor conditions have increased to 32%.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures struggled to break above resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level that has capped gains for over 18 months. However, early February price action has shown enough strength to close above this key level, signaling potential for further upside. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with small to modest losses, pressured by lower corn and soybean futures. Additionally, a higher US Dollar added to pressure. All three March wheat contracts are considered technically overbought and may also be due for a correction to the downside.

  • According to Stats Canada, December wheat stocks came in at 24.48 mmt, which was above both the expected 23 mmt, and last year’s 20.68 mmt figure.

  • The average WASDE pre-report estimate for US 24/25 wheat ending stocks is projected at 800 mb, which would be up 2 mb from the January report and well above the 696 mb from the 23/24 season. Global wheat carryout is expected to show a slight decrease to 258.7 mmt from 258.8 mmt in January.

  • The Russian ag ministry has increased the wheat export tax by 1% to 3984.20 Rubles/mt through February 18. In related news, the Russian wheat export quota is expected to begin on February 15.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 680-705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in SRW supports 680–705 as a realistic and achievable target. In the last three instances where the Funds held a similar net short position and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 140 cents, 90 cents, and 170 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June, providing ample time for potential upside.

2025 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stuck in Neutral – For Now
Chicago wheat continues to tread familiar ground, locked in a tight range between 530 and 577. The market is searching for a spark, and a breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could open the door for a push toward 617. On the flip side, if support at 536 cracks, sellers may take control, driving prices down toward the 521–514 support zone. For now, wheat remains in wait-and-see mode, poised for its next big move.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Weekly Gain: The March ’25 contract closed the week 25 cents higher, making it a solid opportunity for a sale. If the market continues its upward momentum, the next target range is 650–700.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in HRW reinforces 650–700 as a realistic and achievable target. Historically, when the Funds held a net short position exceeding 40,000 contracts and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 100 cents, 100 cents, 160 cents, and 70 cents in the last four instances.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June, providing ample time for potential upside.

2025 Crop:

  • No Change: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop remains 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Shows Signs of Life
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with the early February rally above the 200-day moving average a test of the October highs near 620 looks likely, support should appear at the top end of the recent range near 580.

2024 Crop:

  • Continue to hold. Grain Market Insider continues to recommend holding off on additional sales for the 2024 HRS wheat crop. The March ’25 contract has gained approximately 44 cents over the past three weeks, supporting a wait-and-see approach going into next week.

  • Short Covering Potential: The Funds’ massive net short position in HRS continues to provide upside potential. The last time they held a short position of this size and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied about 110 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • No Change: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout: Rally or False Start?
After months of treading water, spring wheat finally found its spark in late January, surging beyond its previous range and signaling a potential breakout. The next big test lies at the 200-day moving average near 625, a level that could either fuel further momentum or stand as a stubborn ceiling. However, any near-term weakness or a close back below 613 could snuff out the rally, pulling prices back into their familiar rangebound pattern.

Other Charts / Weather

Above:  South America 10-day GEFS Total Accumulated Precipitation, in millimeters, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

Above:  US temperature and precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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2-06 End of Day: A Strong Wheat Market Drives Corn and Soybeans Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn closed higher today, supported by strong demand and buying strength in the wheat market.

  • Beans: After a choppy trading day, soybeans ended higher, supported by strength in the wheat market and the ongoing harvest in Brazil.

  • Wheat: Wheat continues higher at close on all three markets driven by another cold snap anticipated in the Northern Great Plains.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • Sales Target Range: With the March ‘25 contract facing continued resistance at the lower end of the 495 – 515 target range, Grain Market Insider recommended making a sale on Tuesday. The upper end of the target range at 515 remains a key level to watch. If March ‘25 corn can break through this resistance, Grain Market Insider will consider it as another potential sales target.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart remains between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50 — historical levels that could challenge further upside.

2025 Crop: 

  • Be Ready: The December ‘25 contract just closed at a new high in the current uptrend. Stay alert for a sales recommendation in the 473–479 range.

  • Downside Support: Key support for the December ‘25 contract remains at 453.75—an important level to watch in the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A strong close above this level could open the door to broader upside potential as we head into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge against existing sales and get you repositioned to the topside in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 2–4 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures pulled off session lows to finish slightly higher, supported by good demand tone and buying strength in the wheat market. The March futures have been consolidating just under the 500 level.

  • Weekly corn export sales were announced on Thursday morning. The USDA released that new corn sales for the week ending January 30 totaled 1.477 MMT (58.2 mb). This was toward the top end of analyst expectations. Year-over-year, total corn sales are running 28% better than the last marketing year.

  • Argentina’s corn crop conditions slipped this week to 25% good, down 3% from last week, and 28% poor, also down 3% from last week. The corn market is still anticipating some production losses with the Argentina corn crop.

  • Mexico announced that they have officially dropped restrictions on GMO corn inputs. Previously, the GMO import ban was a concern with possible limitations for imports of U.S. corn, if the ban was enacted.

Corn Rally Holding Strong as Buyers Stay Engaged
The corn market’s uptrend has been firing on all cylinders since harvest, fueled by eager fund buying and solid demand. Support is firmly in place at 475, with an extra layer of reinforcement near the breakout zone around 450. On the upside, prices are knocking on the door of 500, a key resistance level that could determine the next leg of this rally. For now, the bulls remain in control, but the market is watching closely to see if momentum can push corn through the next hurdle.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider advised selling another portion of your 2024 soybean crop last week.

  • Down Week: Last week, the March ‘25 contract snapped a five-week winning streak, posting its first weekly loss since December 16. It closed the week down nearly 14 cents.

  • Resistance: The March ‘25 contract has yet to secure a weekly close above the start of the resistance band at 1060. The last time the front-month contract closed above this level on a weekly continuous chart was the week of September 23 last year.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying November ‘25 1100 soybean calls and November ‘25 1180 soybean calls in equal quantities with a total net spend of approximately 88 cents plus commission and fees. The November ‘25 contract closed over 1071 resistance on Tuesday, which opens the door of opportunity for a continued move higher. Buying these call options will reopen the topside on the sales recommendation made last week. Also, buying two strikes provides the option to leg out of the lower strike once it covers the cost of the upper strike.

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop. Now remains a good time to get the first new crop sale on the books and use today’s call option recommendation to re-own this sale right away.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans traded either side of unchanged today but ultimately closed higher with support from a very strong wheat market. Export sales were disappointing, and harvest progress continues in Brazil despite the wet conditions. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was slightly higher.

  • Today’s export sales report saw soybean sales come in towards the lower end of trade estimates. The USDA reported an increase of 14.2 million bushels of soybean sales in 24/25 and none for 25/26. Last week’s export shipments of 43.8 mb were above the 19.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

  • Primary destinations last week for soybean export sales were to China, the Netherlands, and Egypt. With tariffs recently placed on Chinese goods and the potential for more to come, it is possible that Chinese demand will slow down in favor of South American soybeans.

  • In Brazil, harvest progress continues despite the wet weather, and expectations for a large crop remain intact. Some fields in Mato Grosso are reporting yields around 62.5 bpa. While progress has been made, transportation bottlenecks are emerging as major highways remain congested with trucks hauling beans.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures struggled to break above resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level that has capped gains for over 18 months. However, early February price action has shown enough strength to close above this key level, signaling potential for further upside. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three wheat markets closed higher, holding above the 100-day moving average, driven by cold temperatures moving into the northern Great Plains of the U.S. and ongoing fund short covering.

  • Weekly wheat exports came in at 18 mb, which was in line with expectations, with old crop commitments at 683 mb up 8% from YA vs the USDA forecast of up 20%.

  • The Black Sea regions in Russia and Ukraine are expected to experience a drop in temperatures starting next week, following an unusually warm winter. Given the less-than-ideal establishment of last fall’s crop in these areas, the need for snow cover has become critical. Snow cover is essential to protect winter crops from damage and ensure their survival during this cold spell.

  • The U.S. drought monitor shows increasing dry conditions in the Northern half of the Great Plains and dry conditions coming back in the southern half as well.

  • Market concerns continue to weigh heavily on prices as traders closely monitor U.S.-China relations, with ongoing tariff negotiations maintaining tensions over the potential for a trade war.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 680-705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in SRW suggests that 680-705 is a realistic and reachable target zone. In the last three instances when the Funds held a similar net short position and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 140 cents, 90 cents, and 170 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stuck in Neutral – For Now
Chicago wheat continues to tread familiar ground, locked in a tight range between 530 and 577. The market is searching for a spark, and a breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could open the door for a push toward 617. On the flip side, if support at 536 cracks, sellers may take control, driving prices down toward the 521–514 support zone. For now, wheat remains in wait-and-see mode, poised for its next big move.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Next Sales Target Range: Buyers regained control today, pushing the March ‘25 contract above the 600 pivot level and surpassing yesterday’s bearish reversal high of 603.25. The next target zone is 650–700.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in HRW supports 650-700 as a realistic and reachable target zone. Historically, when the Funds held a net short position exceeding 40,000 contracts and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 100 cents, 100 cents, 160 cents, and 70 cents in the last four instances.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Shows Signs of Life
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with the early February rally above the 200-day moving average a test of the October highs near 620 looks likely, support should appear at the top end of the recent range near 580.

2024 Crop:

  • No Official Target Range: Over the past couple of trading days, the March ‘25 contract has pushed into the previously mentioned potential target range of 610-635. Unless market conditions shift, Grain Market Insider plans to take a more opportunistic approach and aim for a target beyond 635.

  • Short Covering Potential: The Funds’ massive net short position in HRS continues to provide upside potential. The last time they held a short position of this size and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied about 110 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout: Rally or False Start?
After months of treading water, spring wheat finally found its spark in late January, surging beyond its previous range and signaling a potential breakout. The next big test lies at the 200-day moving average near 625, a level that could either fuel further momentum or stand as a stubborn ceiling. However, any near-term weakness or a close back below 613 could snuff out the rally, pulling prices back into their familiar rangebound pattern.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above two: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-05 End of Day: Grain Markets Struggle Amid Volatility and Trade Concerns

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Ended the day mixed with strong demand providing underlying support despite weakness in other grains.

  • Beans: Finished sharply lower on Wednesday with front-month contracts taking the brunt of the losses. Both soybean meal and oil also ended the day in negative territory.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures stumbled today, following soybeans lower as broad concerns over a potential trade war with China rattled the grain markets.

  • To see the updated 6–10-day temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S. as well as the 10-day GEFS precipitation forecast for South America scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • Sales Target Range: With the March ‘25 contract facing continued resistance at the lower end of the 495 – 515 target range, Grain Market Insider recommended making a sale yesterday to capitalize on Monday’s and yesterday’s price rebound. The upper end of the target range at 515 remains a key level to watch. If March ‘25 corn can break through this resistance, Grain Market Insider will consider it as another potential sales target.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart stands between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50 — historical levels that could challenge further upside.

2025 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: The current advice remains to hold steady on sales as we watch for a potential move toward 479, which could trigger the next sales recommendation.

  • Downside Support: Key support for December ‘25 contracts sits at 453.75 — an important level to watch in the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A strong close above this level could open the door to broader upside potential as we head into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge against existing sales and get you repositioned to the topside in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 2–4 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw choppy two-side trade as prices finished mixed on the day. Corn futures faded off early session highs pressured by selling int he wheat and soybean market, but the firm demand tone stayed supportive corn futures.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn on Wednesday morning, with Mexico stepping in to purchase 330,000 MT (12.9 mb) for the 2025-26 marketing year.

  • The U.S. Census Bureau released corn exports totals for December. The U.S. exported 5.45 MMT (214 mb) of corn in December. This total was a 35-year high for the month and up 33% from the five-year average. Mexico received 34% of the corn shipments while Japan took 21% of that total.

  • Weekly ethanol production jumped last week to 1.112 million bpd for the week ending January 31. This was up 9.6% from last week and 7.6% above last year. This was also the third largest weekly production on record. A total of 112 mb of corn was used for weekly production, which is still ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA targets for the marketing year.

Corn Rally Holding Strong as Buyers Stay Engaged
The corn market’s uptrend has been firing on all cylinders since harvest, fueled by eager fund buying and solid demand. Support is firmly in place at 475, with an extra layer of reinforcement near the breakout zone around 450. On the upside, prices are knocking on the door of 500, a key resistance level that could determine the next leg of this rally. For now, the bulls remain in control, but the market is watching closely to see if momentum can push corn through the next hurdle.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider advised selling another portion of your 2024 soybean crop last week.

  • Down Week: Last week, the March ‘25 contract snapped a five-week winning streak, posting its first weekly loss since December 16. It closed the week down nearly 14 cents.

  • Resistance: The March ‘25 contract has yet to secure a weekly close above the start of the resistance band at 1060. The last time the front-month contract closed above this level on a weekly continuous chart was the week of September 23 last year.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying November ‘25 1100 soybean calls and November ‘25 1180 soybean calls in equal quantities with a total net spend of approximately 88 cents plus commission and fees. The November ‘25 contract closed over 1071 resistance yesterday, which opens the door of opportunity for a continued move higher. Buying these call options will reopen the topside on the sales recommendation made last week. Also, buying two strikes provides the option to leg out of the lower strike once it covers the cost of the upper strike.

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop. Now remains a good time to get the first new crop sale on the books and use today’s call option recommendation to re-own this sale right away.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower and were bear spread with the bulk of losses in the front months. The March contract gave back all of yesterday’s gains but also made a new high for the year earlier this morning. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.

  • U.S. soybean exports in December totaled 7.96 million tons, a 68% jump from last year and 8% above the five-year average. China was the largest buyer, accounting for 52% of shipments, followed by Mexico at 8%.

  • In Brazil, wet weather continues to slow the soybean harvest, but expectations for a large crop remain intact. While some progress has been made, transportation bottlenecks are emerging as major highways remain congested with trucks hauling beans.

  • Funds are likely now long around 70,000 contracts of soybeans which while large, is a far cry from their record net long position of 238,394 contracts in 2020. Speculative traders also now hold a small net long position in soybeans for the first time since late 2023, but the extreme volatility over the past week could cause these funds to take profits and adopt a risk-off approach.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures struggled to break above resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level that has capped gains for over 18 months. However, early February price action has shown enough strength to close above this key level, signaling potential for further upside. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat prices slid today, pressured by a soybean-led decline across the grain complex. March Matif wheat futures offered no support, retreating by four euros/mt in a sharp reversal that erased gains from earlier in the week. Mounting concerns over a potential trade war with China appeared to weigh heavily on the market.

  • Census data showed December ’24 wheat exports rising 9% year over year to 61 mb. For the first seven months of the 24/25 marketing year, exports have surged 29% compared to the same period last year, outpacing the USDA’s full-year projection of a 20% increase.

  • On a bearish note, China claims to have an excess of wheat due to a better than expected harvest. This caused them to delay or potentially re-sell imports of 10 cargoes (600,000 mt) of wheat to neighboring Asian nations.

  • Russia’s wheat export tax as of February 5 as declined 11% to 3,941.6 rubles/mt. Duties on barley and corn were also reduced, with the new values valid until February 11.

  • Ukraine’s agriculture minister announced plans to establish a grain processing hub in Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone. This facility is expected to facilitate Ukrainian agricultural exports to countries with trade agreements with Egypt, expanding market access for Ukrainian grain and its derivatives.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 680-705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in SRW suggests that 680-705 is a realistic and reachable target zone. In the last three instances when the Funds held a similar net short position and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 140 cents, 90 cents, and 170 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stuck in Neutral – For Now
Chicago wheat continues to tread familiar ground, locked in a tight range between 530 and 577. The market is searching for a spark, and a breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could open the door for a push toward 617. On the flip side, if support at 536 cracks, sellers may take control, driving prices down toward the 521–514 support zone. For now, wheat remains in wait-and-see mode, poised for its next big move.

2024 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop today.

  • Today’s bearish reversal: Grain Market Insider has been targeting 650-700 for the next recommended sale, but today’s rejection near 600 and the subsequent bearish daily reversal are hard to ignore. The front-month contract hasn’t closed above 600 since early October, and historically, this level has acted as a key pivot—marking the divide between higher and lower price trends.

  • Next Sales Target Range: The 650-700 zone will remain on the radar as a potential next sales target—if buyers can regroup and push the March ’25 contract above the key 600 level and today’s bearish reversal high of 603.25.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in HRW supports 650-700 as a realistic and reachable target zone. Historically, when the Funds held a net short position exceeding 40,000 contracts and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 100 cents, 100 cents, 160 cents, and 70 cents in the last four instances.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Shows Signs of Life
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with the early February rally above the 200-day moving average a test of the October highs near 620 looks likely, support should appear at the top end of the recent range near 580.

2024 Crop:

  • No Official Target Range: Over the past couple of trading days, the March ‘25 contract has pushed into the previously mentioned potential target range of 610-635. Unless market conditions shift, Grain Market Insider plans to take a more opportunistic approach and aim for a target beyond 635.

  • Short Covering Potential: The Funds’ massive net short position in HRS continues to provide upside potential. The last time they held a short position of this size and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied about 110 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout: Rally or False Start?
After months of treading water, spring wheat finally found its spark in late January, surging beyond its previous range and signaling a potential breakout. The next big test lies at the 200-day moving average near 625, a level that could either fuel further momentum or stand as a stubborn ceiling. However, any near-term weakness or a close back below 613 could snuff out the rally, pulling prices back into their familiar rangebound pattern.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: South America 10-day GEFS Total Accumulated Precipitation, in millimeters, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

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2-04 End of Day: Grains Continue March Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: With concerns over tariffs on Mexico and Canada delayed, traders shifted their focus to strong demand, driving buying in corn futures on Tuesday.

  • Beans: News that China did not retaliate against U.S. tariffs by placing tariffs on soybeans spurred buying across the soybean complex. This momentum helped March futures close above significant resistance, signaling renewed strength in the market.

  • Wheat: Futures joined the rally higher in corn and soybeans as front month KC wheat futures closed above significant upside resistance, the 200-day moving average.

  • To see the updated 5-day precipitation forecast for South America as well as the soil moisture percentile map for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop today.

  • Sales Target Range: With the March ‘25 contract facing continued resistance at the lower end of the 495 – 515 target range, Grain Market Insider recommends making a sale today to capitalize on this week’s rebound. The upper end of the target range at 515 remains a key level to watch. If March ‘25 corn can break through this resistance, Grain Market Insider will consider it as another potential sales target.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart stands between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50 — historical levels that could challenge further upside.

2025 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: Grain Market Insider previously recommended making a couple of sales for the 2025 crop in mid-January. For now, the advice is to hold steady as we watch for a move toward 479, which could trigger the next sales recommendation.

  • Downside Support: Key support for December ‘25 contracts sits at 453.75 — an important level to watch in the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A strong close above this level could open the door to broader upside potential as we head into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge against existing sales and get you repositioned to the topside in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 2–4 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Buyers stayed active in the corn market as traders put prospects of tariffs on the back burner and focused on the strong demand tone for U.S. corn. Buying in both the soybean and wheat markets helped support corn futures on Tuesday.

  • The front end of the corn market is pushing back toward the $5.00 resistance level, a price barrier that has capped March futures in recent trading.

  • The USDA announced a flash export sale of 132,000 metric tons (5.2 million bushels) of U.S. corn to South Korea for the current marketing year, further reinforcing demand strength.

  • Traders are closely monitoring Brazil’s delayed planting pace for its key second corn crop. A slow planting pace could extend the U.S. export window into early summer and expose Brazil’s crop to less favorable weather conditions, potentially limiting production.

Corn Uptrend Well Supported
Fund buying and strong demand have sustained the corn market’s uptrend since harvest. Initial support is at 475, with additional support near the breakout area around 450. Overhead resistance is now just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider advised selling another portion of your 2024 soybean crop last week.

  • Down Week: Last week, the March ‘25 contract snapped a five-week winning streak, posting its first weekly loss since December 16. It closed the week down nearly 14 cents.

  • Resistance: The March ‘25 contract has yet to secure a weekly close above the start of the resistance band at 1060. The last time the front-month contract closed above this level on a weekly continuous chart was the week of September 23 last year.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends buying November ‘25 1100 soybean calls and November ‘25 1180 soybean calls in equal quantities with a total net spend of approximately 88 cents plus commission and fees. The November ‘25 contract closed over 1071 resistance today, which opens the door of opportunity for a continued move higher. Buying these call options will reopen the topside on the sales recommendation made last week. Also, buying two strikes provides the option to leg out of the lower strike once it covers the cost of the upper strike.

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop. Now remains a good time to get the first new crop sale on the books and use today’s call option recommendation to reown this sale right away.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly higher with the March contract closing above the 200-day moving average for the first time since December 2023. Higher soybean meal was the primary driver for soybeans today while soybean oil was slightly lower along with crude oil. The higher meal prices likely point to dry weather in Argentina and logistics issues in Brazil.

  • Grain markets have been volatile since tariffs were implemented and in some cases postponed yesterday, but China’s tariff of 10% was held in place. The bullish part of this news was that though China did retaliate placing tariffs on some U.S. goods, soybeans were not included.

  • In Brazil, despite the wet conditions that are delaying harvest, a large crop is still expected. A portion of harvest is completed, but there have been serious problems within the country concerning transportation with many main highways backed up with trucks carrying beans.

  • Yesterday, the USDA released its Fats and Oils report which saw the December soybean crush at 217.7 million bushels which was another monthly record for soybean crush. Crush margins remain firm which points to another strong crush number in January.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures struggled to break above resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level that has capped gains for over 18 months. However, early February price action has shown enough strength to close above this key level, signaling potential for further upside. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three wheat classes posted gains today, supported by strength in corn and soybeans, as well as a significant drop in the U.S. dollar. Winter wheat crop ratings, released yesterday, showed improvement in Kansas, the top-producing state, while conditions declined in Nebraska, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado.

  • European Union soft wheat exports have reached 12.5 mmt as of February 2. That is down 37% year over year. Furthermore, the European Commission has kept EU total grain production steady at 255.8 mmt for 24/25, with wheat accounting for 111.9 mmt of that total.

  • According to SovEcon, Russia’s 24/25 wheat exports are anticipated at 42.8 mmt, below the USDA estimate of 46 mmt. However, they raised the 25/26 export estimate from 36.4 to 38.3 mmt. In related news, they have also said that domestic Russian wheat prices so far in 2025 have climbed 9% to $158/mt.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 680-705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in SRW suggests that 680-705 is a realistic and reachable target zone. In the last three instances when the Funds held a similar net short position and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 140 cents, 90 cents, and 170 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stays Rangebound
Front-month Chicago wheat remains confined between 530 and 577. A breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could prompt a retest of 617, while a close below 536 may lead to a decline toward the 521–514 support range.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 650-700 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in HRW supports 650-700 as a realistic and reachable target zone. Historically, when the Funds held a net short position exceeding 40,000 contracts and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 100 cents, 100 cents, 160 cents, and 70 cents in the last four instances.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Shows Signs of Life
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with the early February rally above the 200-day moving average a test of the October highs near 620 looks likely, support should appear at the top end of the recent range near 580.

2024 Crop:

  • No Official Target Range: Over the past couple of trading days, the March ‘25 contract has pushed into the previously mentioned potential target range of 610-635. Unless market conditions shift, Grain Market Insider plans to take a more opportunistic approach and aim for a target beyond 635.

  • Short Covering Potential: The Funds’ massive net short position in HRS continues to provide upside potential. The last time they held a short position of this size and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied about 110 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Holds Range
After months of rangebound trade, spring wheat staged a late-January rally, breaking above its previous range. Overhead resistance lies at the 200-day moving average near 625. Near-term weakness or a close back below 613 would negate the potential breakout and likely see a resumption of rangebound trade.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: South America 5-day precipitation forecast, courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center.

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2-03 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans End Higher in Volatile Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures reversed from overnight lows today following the announcement that tariffs between the U.S. and Mexico would be delayed for 30 days.

  • Beans: Rallied sharply on Monday on strong export inspections as futures closed back near recent upside resistance at the 200-day moving average.

  • Wheat: Wheat was the weakest performer in the grain markets on Monday, posting minimal gains as the U.S. Dollar Index notched its fifth consecutive session higher.

  • To see the updated 30-day percent of normal rainfall map for South America as well as the 7-day U.S. precipitation forecast scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Sales Target Range: Grain Market Insider is continuing to target towards the top end of the 495 – 515 range vs March ‘25 to recommend making the next sale.

  • Down Week: March ‘25 fell a net of 4-½ cents last week and posted its first down week since the week of December 30th.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart stands between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50 — historical levels that could challenge further upside.

2025 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: Grain Market Insider previously recommended making a couple of sales for the 2025 crop in mid-January. For now, the advice is to hold steady as we watch for a move toward 479, which could trigger the next sales recommendation.

  • Downside Support: Key support for December ‘25 contracts sits at 453.75 — an important level to watch in the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A strong close above this level could open the door to broader upside potential as we head into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge against existing sales and get you repositioned to the topside in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 2–4 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn ended the day higher after very volatile trade which saw prices sharply lower overnight before rallying following breaking news that the tariffs on Mexico would be postponed for 30 days. March corn filled both the gap left from last night’s trade along with the gap left on Friday at $4.90.

  • Weekly inspections reached 49.3 million bushels, bringing the 2024/25 total to 856 million bushels, which is 33% ahead of last year. Inspections are outpacing the USDA’s estimated export pace of 2.450 billion bushels, which would reflect a 7% year-over-year increase.

  • Argentina is forecasted to receive improved rainfall between Tuesday and Thursday, with as much as four inches possible over the next 10 days. This contributed to early session weakness in the corn market.

  • Brazil has experienced heavy rains, delaying safrinha crop planting. As of last week, only 6% of the crop was planted, compared to 29% last year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of corn as of January 28 by 39,043 contracts which increased their net long position to 350,721 contracts. Funds are now just 50,000 contracts shy from a record large net long position, and it may not take much bearish news to incentivize profit taking.

Corn Uptrend Well Supported
Fund buying and strong demand have sustained the corn market’s uptrend since harvest. Initial support is at 475, with additional support near the breakout area around 450. Overhead resistance is now just below 500.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 28. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 39,043 contracts between January 21 – January 28, bringing their total position to a net long 350,721 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider advised selling another portion of your 2024 soybean crop last week.

  • Down Week: Last week, the March ‘25 contract snapped a five-week winning streak, posting its first weekly loss since December 16. It closed the week down nearly 14 cents.

  • Resistance: The March ‘25 contract has yet to secure a weekly close above the start of the resistance band at 1060. The last time the front-month contract closed above this level on a weekly continuous chart was the week of September 23 last year.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

  • First Sale Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recommended initiating 2025 soybean sales last week on Wednesday, as the November ‘25 contract closed at a fresh high of 1063.50, and as the spread between the March ‘25 and November ‘25 contracts flipped from an inversion to a carry. With this spread trending bearish and significant resistance looming near 1070, now looks like a good time to start locking in new crop sales. Especially as Grain Market Insider is prepared to quickly recommend reowning this sale with call options if needed.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after a volatile session driven by shifting tariff news. Early in the session, soybean meal traded lower while soybean oil found support from tariffs on Canadian oil. However, once the Mexico tariffs were postponed, soybean meal rebounded, contributing to the broader soybean rally.

  • Weekly soybean export inspections totaled 37.2 million bushels for the week ending January 30. Year-to-date, 2024/25 inspections have reached 1.252 billion bushels, up 16% from last year. The USDA projects soybean exports for 2024/25 to rise 8% from the previous year.

  • Brazil’s 24/25 soybean harvest is reportedly 7.6% complete as of January 31 which compares to a pace of 15.7% the previous year and the 5-year average of 11.8% at this time. Rainfall has continued to fall throughout the country which could delay harvest further.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as net buyers of soybeans as of January 28, adding 16,166 contracts and increasing their net long position to 56,496 contracts.

Soybeans Face Long-Term Resistance
Front-month soybeans hit resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level capping gains for over 18 months. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies at the 200-day and recent highs around 1060. A weekly close above 1060 could pave the way for a test of the 1100 level.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 28. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 16,166 contracts between January 21 – January 28, bringing their total position to a net long 56,496 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed higher across all three classes today. The suspension of Mexico tariffs for one month provided a boost to grain markets after early session weakness. Additional support came from a retreat in the U.S. dollar off-session highs and strength in Matif wheat futures, where the May contract broke above resistance at the 200-day moving average.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 9.3 mb bring the 24/25 inspections total to 515 mb, which is up 24% from last year. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace, with exports for 24/25 estimated at 850 mb, up 20% from last year.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values finished last week at $239/mt which is up $2.50 from the week prior. Additionally, SovEcon reports that Russian grain exports totaled 660,000 mt last week, with wheat accounting for 590,000 mt of that total.

  • Australia’s government estimated the wheat crop at 31.9 mmt in December. However, new analyst estimates suggest that the 24/25 crop could be about 2 mmt larger. In an analyst poll by Reuters, estimates now range between 32 and 35.5 mmt. This increase may be in large part due to yields in Western Australia exceeding expectations.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 680-705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in SRW suggests that 680-705 is a realistic and reachable target zone. In the last three instances when the Funds held a similar net short position and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 140 cents, 90 cents, and 170 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stays Rangebound
Front-month Chicago wheat remains confined between 530 and 577. A breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could prompt a retest of 617, while a close below 536 may lead to a decline toward the 521–514 support range.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 28. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 18,990 contracts between January 21 – January 28, bringing their total position to a net short 110,782 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 650-700 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in HRW supports 650-700 as a realistic and reachable target zone. Historically, when the Funds held a net short position exceeding 40,000 contracts and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 100 cents, 100 cents, 160 cents, and 70 cents in the last four instances.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Maintains Range
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with initial resistance near the 100-day moving average at 568. A close above 583 could pave the way for a move toward 600, while a close below 536 risks a decline to 525.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 28. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 7,225 contracts between January 21 – January 28, bringing their total position to a net short 42,386 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • No Official Target Range: Over the past couple of trading days, the March ‘25 contract has pushed into the previously mentioned potential target range of 610-635. Unless market conditions shift, Grain Market Insider plans to take a more opportunistic approach and aim for a target beyond 635.

  • Short Covering Potential: The Funds’ massive net short position in HRS continues to provide upside potential. The last time they held a short position of this size and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied about 110 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Holds Range
After months of rangebound trade, spring wheat staged a late-January rally, breaking above its previous range. Overhead resistance lies at the 200-day moving average near 625. Near-term weakness or a close back below 613 would negate the potential breakout and likely see a resumption of rangebound trade.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 28. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,922 contracts between January 21 – January 28, bringing their total position to a net short 23,242 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: South America 30-day precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center.

Above: U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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1-31 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Slide Lower into the Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Closed lower Friday as prices corrected from recent highs. The looming implementation of tariffs on Mexico and Canada added pressure, raising concerns over potential trade disruptions.

  • Beans: Futures remained subdued, with improved weather in Argentina applying downward pressure on prices. However, gains in soybean oil futures provided some support, helping to limit losses.

  • Wheat: Tracked corn futures lower on Friday after an overall strong week of gains.

  • To see the updated 10-day GEFS total accumulated precipitation for South America as well as the 6–10-day temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Sales Target Range: Grain Market Insider is continuing to target towards the top end of the 495 – 515 range vs March ‘25 to recommend making the next sale.

  • Down Week: March ‘25 fell a net of 4-½ cents this week and posted its first down week since the week of December 30th.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart stands between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50 — historical levels that could challenge further upside.

2025 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: Grain Market Insider previously recommended making a couple of sales for the 2025 crop in mid-January. For now, the advice is to hold steady as we watch for a move toward 479, which could trigger the next sales recommendation.

  • Downside Support: Key support for December ‘25 contracts sits at 453.75 — an important level to watch in the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A strong close above this level could open the door to broader upside potential as we head into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge against existing sales and get you repositioned to the topside in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 3–5 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished the weak lower as talk of tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China pressured the market. For the week, the march corn contract traded 4 ½ cent lower and posted a reversal on the weekly chart as momentum has faded from the corn market.

  • President Trump is planning to install a round of tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China as of February 1. The tariff will be 25% against Mexican and Canadian good, and 10% for Chinese goods. The grain markets are worried about the possible extent of retaliation for the tariffed nations.

  • Argentina forecasts are looking to turn more friend for crop production going into February. February will be a key month for pod and grain fill on this year’s corn and soybean crops.

  • A weak close this week and bearish price action could trigger further technical selling. Managed funds currently hold a near-record net long position in corn, and a loss of buying momentum may prompt additional long liquidation.

  • Despite technical pressures, overall corn demand remains robust. Weekly ethanol production and export demand are outpacing USDA projections. If this trend continues, the USDA may need to tighten ending stock estimates in future reports, which could be supportive of prices.

Corn Uptrend Well Supported
Fund buying and strong demand have sustained the corn market’s uptrend since harvest. Initial support is at 475, with additional support near the breakout area around 450. Overhead resistance is now just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently advised selling another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Down Week: The March ‘25 contract snapped a five-week winning streak, posting its first weekly loss since December 16. It closed the week down nearly 14 cents.

  • Resistance: The March ‘25 contract has yet to secure a weekly close above the start of the resistance band at 1060. The last time the front-month contract closed above this level on a weekly continuous chart was the week of September 23 last year.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

  • First Sale Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recommended initiating 2025 soybean sales on Wednesday, as the November ‘25 contract closed at a fresh high of 1063.50, and as the spread between the March ‘25 and November ‘25 contracts flipped from an inversion to a carry.  With this spread trending bearish and significant resistance looming near 1070, now looks like a strategic opportunity to start locking in new crop sales.  Especially as Grain Market Insider is prepared to quickly recommend reowning this sale with call options if needed.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after mixed trade throughout the session that was partially caused by some miscommunication over President Trump’s tariff plans. Argentinian weather has improved as well which pressured soybeans. Soybean oil ended the day higher.

  • Trade has known for weeks that the Trump administration had planned to implement tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China on February 1, but earlier today, Reuters incorrectly reported that the tariffs would begin on March 1. This cause prices to rally until the White House refuted the claim stating that they would indeed go into effect tomorrow. The tariffs will include Canadian canola oil which was supportive to soybean oil.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina was most likely get rain in February that would put an end to the drought and stop the soybean and corn crops from further deterioration. They expect Argentina to produce 49.6 mmt of soybeans. This news was bearish for soybean meal.

  • For the week, March soybeans lost 13-3/4 cents while November gained 2-1/4. March soybean meal lost $3.70 to $301.10, and March soybean oil gained 0.89 cents to 46.11 cents. The funds are estimated to be long around 50,000 contracts of soybeans.

Soybeans Face Long-Term Resistance
Front-month soybeans hit resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level capping gains for over 18 months. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies at the 200-day and recent highs around 1060. A weekly close above 1060 could pave the way for a test of the 1100 level.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat ended the day lower, driven partly by concerns over the tariffs set to take effect on Mexico and Canada tomorrow, February 1st, and the continued strength of the U.S. Dollar.

  • Tightening global supplies, particularly in the Black Sea region, are expected to persist, providing underlying support to prices. Additionally, growing drought-like conditions in the U.S. Northern Plains, as indicated by the latest drought monitor, show dryness steadily reappearing in the region, further adding to concerns.

  • Ukraine’s combined grain and oilseed harvest is forecasted to rise to 80 MMT in 2025, up from 76 MMT in 2024, driven by higher wheat seedings, according to Reuters. While Ukraine remains a key grain and oilseed producer, production has been significantly impacted by Russia’s 2022 invasion.

  • India’s wheat crop remains a growing concern, and it’s now possible that the country will need to import wheat this year. However, due to the strength of the U.S. Dollar, it’s unlikely they will turn to the U.S., as American wheat will be more expensive compared to other global producers. This, however, will still reduce the overall wheat supply on the market.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: Grain Market Insider maintains a target range of 680–705 for March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: So far, three sales recommendations have been issued for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two earlier recommendations. If you’re behind on sales, this range presents a solid opportunity for a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding. While actionable targets remain out of reach, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stays Rangebound
Front-month Chicago wheat remains confined between 530 and 577. A breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could prompt a retest of 617, while a close below 536 may lead to a decline toward the 521–514 support range.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range for selling more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop remains 650–700 vs. March ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued just two sales recommendations so far, reflecting last year’s significant yield uncertainty and limited post-harvest opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged around 719 vs. July ’24 futures. A sale within the next target range will lower this average, but upside opportunity expectations remain modest for now.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold. While actionable targets are still a way off, these options have about five months remaining until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Maintains Range
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with initial resistance near the 100-day moving average at 568. A close above 583 could pave the way for a move toward 600, while a close below 536 risks a decline to 525.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Sales Target Range: The initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop is a rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25. That said, keep in mind that the near-record short position held by the Funds could lead Grain Market Insider to adjust this target range higher as price action develops.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding them. While actionable targets remain distant, these options have about five months left until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Holds Range
After months of rangebound trade, spring wheat staged a late-January rally, breaking above its previous range. Overhead resistance lies at the 200-day moving average near 625. Near-term weakness or a close back below 613 would negate the potential breakout and likely see a resumption of rangebound trade.

Other Charts / Weather

South America 10-day GEFS Total Accumulated Precipitation, in millimeters, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.