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1-08 End of Day: Grains Consolidate Ahead of Friday’s USDA Report

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn prices edged lower Wednesday ahead of Friday’s WASDE report, pressured by weaker ethanol production and declines in wheat.
  • Soybean futures posted minimal losses as improved precipitation forecasts in Argentina weighed on prices.
  • Wheat futures fell midweek after early strength, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar.
  • See the 15-day South America precipitation anomaly map and U.S. 8–14-day temperature outlook in the charts/weather section below.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.
  • With March futures knocking on the door of their highest level since June and continuous corn up roughly 23% from the pre-harvest low in August it is time to reward this rally.
  • If you missed previous recommendations or need cash flow in the near term, sell into market strength to get current.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 455 – 460 versus Dec ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2025 crop.
  • The strong demand tone for U.S. corn continues to provide support to the market, but this higher price will likely buy additional planted acres in the US for 2025.
  • Major resistance for the December 2025 chart sits near the 480 futures level, a close above this area would be a potential breakout of the current range.  
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec ’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures fell Tuesday amid choppy trade ahead of Friday’s USDA report, pressured by weaker wheat, potential Argentine weather improvement, and a strong U.S. dollar.
  • Afternoon weather models are forecasting improved rainfall chances for Argentina by mid-January which should bring relief to the center of the farming region in the country that has been under stress from recent hot, dry weather. The recent weather pattern has had an impact, but that could be minimized by this potential rainfall.
  • Weekly ethanol production dipped to 324 million gallons/day last week, using 111 mb of corn—still ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA marketing year targets.
  • The January WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports on January 10 will be pivotal for stockpile and demand insights, with choppy trading expected ahead of the release. Expectations are for corn production to be limited, reducing the possible carry out total to 1.680 billion bushels.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 450, with additional support near 434. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 460 with additional resistance near 475.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1060-1080 versus March ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though, patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans traded on either side of unchanged throughout the day but ultimately closed lower ahead of Friday’s WASDE report with an improved Argentinian weather forecast pressuring both soybeans and soybean meal while soybean oil ended the day higher.
  • Pre-report estimates for soybeans in Friday’s WASDE see ending stocks falling by 12 mb to 458 mb. Yield is expected to be reduced by 0.1 bpa to 51.6 bpa, but the bearish surprise in Friday’s report could come from changes made to Brazilian production. Many analysts are expecting soybean production to be above 175 mmt, but the USDA’s last estimate in December was 169 mmt
  • Hedge funds reduced net short positions to 42,447 contracts as of December 31, cutting 25,436 contracts amid Argentine and Brazilian weather concerns.
  • This morning, private exporters reported sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year. While encouraging, these flash sales have slowed down in recent weeks.

Above: The recent break in prices found initial support near 950. Initial overhead resistance lies just above the market near 1030 with additional resistance between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All wheat classes posted modest losses, pressured by weaker corn and soybeans, a stronger U.S. dollar, and mixed Paris milling wheat futures.
  • Friday’s report includes the first look at 2025 U.S. winter wheat acreage, estimated at 33.5 million acres, slightly above 2024.
  • Pre-report estimates for December 1 wheat stocks average 1.578 bb (down from September’s 1.986 bb but above last year’s 1.421 bb). U.S. wheat ending stocks are forecast at 807 mb, with global carryout expected to rise slightly to 258.2 mmt.
  • According to the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, hard red spring wheat stocks stored in Minnesota and Wisconsin are down 24% year over year at 12.73 mb, for the week ending January 5. However, stocks were up 406,000 bu when compared with the week prior.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. With harvest underway in the southern hemisphere and winter wheat into dormancy in the northern hemisphere, this can historically be a slow time of the year for the wheat market.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: 15-day South America Precipitation Anomaly Map

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1-07 End of Day: Wheat Leads Grains Higher Tuesday

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A daily flash sale to Columbia and strength in crude and wheat helped corn futures bounce off overnight lows to close fractionally higher today.
  • Soybeans ended the day with minimal losses closing well off their daily lows. Soybean meal futures were lower while soybean oil followed crude higher.
  • Wheat led all grains higher today as wheat ratings in Kansas deteriorated more than expected from the last USDA update in November.
  • To see the updated South America 10-day GEFS Total Accumulated Precipitation, in millimeters, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits, scroll down to the other chart/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.
  • With March futures knocking on the door of their highest level since June and continuous corn up roughly 23% from the pre-harvest low in August it is time to reward this rally.
  • If you missed previous recommendations or need cash flow in the near term, sell into market strength to get current.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 455 – 460 versus Dec ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2025 crop.
  • The strong demand tone for U.S. corn continues to provide support to the market, but this higher price will likely buy additional planted acres in the US for 2025.
  • Major resistance for the December 2025 chart sits near the 480 futures level, a close above this area would be a potential breakout of the current range.  
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec ’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market fought off early session lows to finish slightly higher on the session. Strength in the wheat and crude oil markets helped support corn markets on Tuesday.
  • Managed money has stayed an active buyer in the corn market. The most recent Commitment of Trader report released on Monday afternoon showed the hedge funds were net buyers of 67,859 contracts, holding a net long position of 228,806 contracts. This is the hedge funds most bullish view of corn since Feb 2023.
  • USDA announced a flash sale of corn this morning. Columbia stepped into the export market and purchased 110,000 MT (4.3 mb) of corn for the current marketing year, underscoring ongoing supportive demand for corn.
  • The corn market remains vigilant about weather conditions in Argentina, where forecasts of dry, warmer weather in mid-January are supportive of prices. However, anticipated rainfall towards late January could influence corn and soybean prices.
  • The January WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports on January 10 will be pivotal for stockpile and demand insights, with choppy trading expected ahead of the release.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 450, with additional support near 434. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 460 with additional resistance near 475.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, December 31. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 67,859 contracts between December 24 – 31, bringing their total position to a net long 228,806 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1060-1080 versus March ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though, patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower but rebounded significantly off their early morning lows that saw March futures as much as 11 cents lower. After yesterday’s rally, increased chances for rain in Argentina have pressured the complex with soybean meal leading the way lower while soybean oil was higher.
  • The soybean market’s attention remains squarely on weather conditions in Argentina and Southern Brazil through mid-January. Recent forecasts predicting below-normal precipitation and warmer temperatures have lent support to soybean prices. However, the market’s direction into February will hinge on the reliability of long-range forecasts which are currently suggesting rainfall will resume mid-month.
  • Hedge funds have shaved their current net short positions in the soybean market over the past couple weeks. As of December 31, hedge funds were net short 42,447 contracts by reducing the short position by a net 25,436 contracts. The short covering has been triggered by the current weather forecasts for Argentina and Southern Brazil.
  • Indonesia’s admission as a full member of the BRICS bloc, with Brazil currently presiding, has implications for soybeans. As the world’s leading producer of palm oil, Indonesia’s membership could influence global vegetable oil markets, including soybeans, due to potential shifts in trade and policy dynamics.

Above: The recent break in prices found initial support near 950. Initial overhead resistance lies just above the market near 1030 with additional resistance between 1060 and 1075.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, December 31. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 25,436 contracts between December 24 – 31, bringing their total position to a net short 42,447 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex closed higher, with early strength coming from winter wheat crop condition updates, released by select states yesterday afternoon. The good to excellent rating for Kansas came in at 47% which is a sharp decline from the last rating of 55% in November. Conditions also declined in South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Nebraska.
  • European Union 24/25 wheat exports have reached 11.16 mmt as of January 5. This is down 34% from a year ago, which along with a lower Russian crop, could be supportive to the U.S. wheat export market.
  • According to data from the CFTC, funds have reduced their net short position in Chicago wheat by 8,247 contracts as of December 31, bringing their total net short to 86,762 contracts. In Kansas City, they reduced their net short position by 1,075 to 33,861 contracts.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. With harvest underway in the southern hemisphere and winter wheat into dormancy in the northern hemisphere, this can historically be a slow time of the year for the wheat market.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, December 31. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 8247 contracts between December 24 – 31, bringing their total position to a net short 86,762 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, December 31. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,075 contracts between December 24 – 31, bringing their total position to a net short 33,861 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, December 31. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 161 contracts between December 24 – 31, bringing their total position to a net short 27,143 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: South America 10-day GEFS Total Accumulated Precipitation, in millimeters, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

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1-06 End of Day: Lower US Dollar and Argentine Forecast Rallies Grains Monday

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures rebounded Monday, supported by a drier Argentine forecast and stronger wheat prices, recovering some of Friday’s losses.
  • Soybeans closed higher but off morning highs. Soybean oil posted small gains, while soybean meal ended lower despite the Argentine weather outlook.
  • Wheat futures surged, erasing Friday’s losses in KC and Spring wheat. A sharp drop in the U.S. dollar, its weakest daily performance since late November, supported the rally.
  • To see the US 7-day precipitation forecast and the Argentina two-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, NOAA and Climate Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop.
  • The March 2024 contract has rallied 30 cents from the Thanksgiving low and has recently traded to its highest level since late June. Looking back even farther, corn is roughly 23% higher than the August low when looking at the continuous corn chart. While strong demand has been a main driver of this rally, we are starting to see corn demand slowing at these higher prices. Therefore, Grain Market Insider sees this as an advantageous area to reward this rally by selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 455 – 460 versus Dec ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2025 crop.
  • The strong demand tone for U.S. corn continues to provide support to the market, but this higher price will likely buy additional planted acres in the US for 2025.
  • Major resistance for the December 2025 chart sits near the 480 futures level, a close above this area would be a potential breakout of the current range.  
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec ’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures rebounded Monday, aided by a weaker U.S. dollar and strong wheat prices. March corn retested $4.60 but failed to hold, ending moderately higher.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index fell, driven by a strong Canadian dollar following President Trudeau’s resignation. The weaker dollar supported wheat and spilled over to corn.
  • Weekly corn export inspections were very routine in Monday’s report at 847,000 MT (33.6 mb), down slightly from the previous week’s totals. Total inspections for the 2024-25 marketing year are now at 639 mb, up 24% from the previous year.
  • Dry and hot weather forecasts for mid-January in Argentina remain a key market focus. Long-range forecasts into late January will likely drive corn and soybean price action.
  • The January WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports on January 10 will be pivotal for stockpile and demand insights, with choppy trading expected ahead of the release.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 450, with additional support near 434. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 460 with additional resistance near 475.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1060-1080 versus March ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though, patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans opened the week with higher prices as soil moisture levels continue to decline across many regions of Argentina. Growing concerns about rising temperatures and inadequate rainfall are raising the risk of significant challenges for the crop.
  • Part of the strength in the soy complex is driven by anticipation ahead of Inauguration Day, as President-elect Trump considers widespread tariffs on several countries, creating uncertainty in the markets. This news resulted in a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar overnight, while boosting commodity prices.
  • Soybean meal ended the day with a decline as cold weather and heavy snowstorms swept through the Midwest over the weekend. These weather conditions disrupted soybean processing operations, leading to delays in both production and transportation.
  • Farmers in Brazil have reportedly sold 35% of their expected soybean production, up from 20% at this time last year and surpassing the 10-year average of 30%. This increase is partly attributed to the Brazilian currency’s decline to an all-time low against the U.S. dollar.

Above: The recent break in prices found initial support near 950. Initial overhead resistance lies just above the market near 1030 with additional resistance between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures recouped Friday’s losses, with March KC and Minneapolis contracts leading the rally, while Chicago March wheat closed below Friday’s high. A sharp drop in the U.S. Dollar Index supported U.S. wheat, despite lower Matif wheat prices.
  • Weekly wheat inspections at 15.2 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 467 mb, which is up 25% from the year prior. Inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace, and exports are estimated at 850 mb, up 20% from last year.
  • Argentina’s wheat crop is 94.7% harvested, up 6.2% week-over-week, with production estimates steady at 18.6 mmt, compared to 15.1 mmt last year.
  • Indonesia may impose feed wheat import quotas to protect domestic corn farmers. Despite this, 2023/24 wheat imports are projected at 12.98 mmt, up from 9.45 mmt last year, according to USDA FAS.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. With harvest underway in the southern hemisphere and winter wheat into dormancy in the northern hemisphere, this can historically be a slow time of the year for the wheat market.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina two-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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1-3 End of Day: Grains Tumble Friday on Poor Export Sales

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn fell Friday on weak export sales and broad commodity weakness, marking its first weekly loss after four straight weeks of gains.
  • Poor export sales and improved Argentine weather pushed soybeans sharply lower. Despite Friday’s losses, March soybean futures ended the week 2 cents higher.
  • Soybean meal led Friday’s losses, dropping over 3.7%, with soybean oil also lower but by a smaller margin.
  • Wheat futures plunged on marketing-year-low export sales. March contracts for Chicago and spring wheat hit new lows, with KC wheat nearing similar levels.
  • To see the US 2-day snowfall forecast as well as the 30-day accumulated precipitation percent of normal map for South America scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop.
  • The March 2024 contract has rallied 30 cents from the Thanksgiving low and has recently traded to its highest level since late June. Looking back even farther, corn is roughly 23% higher than the August low when looking at the continuous corn chart. While strong demand has been a main driver of this rally, we are starting to see corn demand slowing at these higher prices. Therefore, Grain Market Insider sees this as an advantageous area to reward this rally by selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 455 – 460 versus Dec. ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2025 crop.
  • The strong demand tone for US corn continues to provide support to the market, but this higher price will likely buy additional planted acres in the US for 2025.
  • Major resistance for the December 2025 chart sits near the 480 futures level, a close above this area would be a potential breakout of the current range.  
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market posted strong losses to end the week, and sellers were extremely active to end the week in the grain markets. A weak export sales report, strong dollar, and heavy selling in the soybean and wheat markets weighed on corn futures.  The March contract finished the week 3 ¼ cents lower, breaking a 4-week streak of higher closes.
  • Failure to break resistance at $4.60 in the March contract triggered long liquidation. The weak close suggests potential for further selling in Sunday night’s trade.
  • Weekly corn export sales disappointed, with 777,000 MT (30.6 mb) reported for the week ending Dec. 26, below expectations. Mexico remained the top buyer.
  • The U.S. dollar index had a strong week, trading to 26-month high this week. The strong dollar limits the corn market as the combination of a strong dollar and higher corn prices may impact demand. In addition, wheat future trading to new lows on the session also brings demand concerns as cheaper wheat can replace corn in feed rations.
  • The USDA will release the next WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Friday Jan 10. The report will be closely watched to see the available stockpiles, and the current demand tone in the corn market. The corn market may trade very choppy next week going into those reports.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 450, with additional support near 434. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 460 with additional resistance near 475.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1060-1080 versus March ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower after a poor export sales report and an Argentinian weather forecast that has shown increased moisture over the next week. March futures were unable to take out yesterday’s high and were dragged down primarily by lower soybean meal, but soybean oil was slightly lower as well.
  • Today’s export sales report saw soybean sales increase by 17.8 million bushels for 24/25 and none for 25/26. This was below the lowest trade estimate and below last week’s sales. Last week’s export shipments of 62.6 mb were above the 23.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to China, the Republic of South Africa, and Spain.
  • US soybean crushings came in at 210 million bushels for November, which was above the average trade guess and was 5% higher than the same period last year. Crude oil production was 7.1% higher than the same period last year.
  • On January 1 there were 331 deliveries against January soybeans for a total of 820 deliveries. There have been 2,097 deliveries against January bean meal and 820 deliveries against January soybean oil.

Above: The recent break in prices found initial support near 950. Initial overhead resistance lies just above the market near 1030 with additional resistance between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures saw double-digit losses across all classes, pressured by technical selling, improved rain forecasts for Argentina, and weak export sales. Sharp declines in Paris milling wheat, with March Paris wheat breaking below its 200-day moving average, further weighed on U.S. markets.
  • The USDA reported an increase of only 5.2 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 with 0 mb for 25/26. Additionally, shipments last week at 14.0 mb fell under the 18.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 850 mb. Total sales commitments have reached 621 mb, which is up 11% from a year ago, but behind the USDA’s estimate of a 20% increase.
  • Despite today’s dip, the U.S. Dollar Index remains near its highest level since November 2022, adding pressure to wheat markets. A record-low Russian ruble further complicates U.S. export competitiveness.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. With harvest underway in the southern hemisphere and winter wheat into dormancy in the northern hemisphere, this can historically be a slow time of the year for the wheat market.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: South America 30-day precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center.

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1-2 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Green to Start 2025

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn ended the day slightly higher as strong demand continues to provide underlying support to the market. March corn has closed higher in eight of the last nine trading days.  
  • Soybean futures held onto fractional gains to start the year; support today came from higher soybean meal futures while soybean oil was lower.
  • Wheat futures began the year on a softer note as the US dollar index surged to a 26-month high today.
  • To see the US 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop.
  • The March 2024 contract has rallied 30 cents from the Thanksgiving low and has recently traded to its highest level since late June. Looking back even farther, corn is roughly 23% higher than the August low when looking at the continuous corn chart. While strong demand has been a main driver of this rally, we are starting to see corn demand slowing at these higher prices. Therefore, Grain Market Insider sees this as an advantageous area to reward this rally by selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 455 – 460 versus Dec. ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2025 crop.
  • The strong demand tone for US corn continues to provide support to the market, but this higher price will likely buy additional planted acres in the US for 2025.
  • Major resistance for the December 2025 chart sits near the 480 futures level, a close above this area would be a potential breakout of the current range.  
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures posted mild gains on the first trading day of 2025, supported by strong demand. Gains were capped by overhead resistance at $4.60 (March futures), a stronger U.S. dollar, and weakness in wheat.
  • The U.S. dollar index broke out to new 26-month highs on Thursday, now trading at its highest point since May 2022. The strong dollar limits U.S. competitiveness in the global export market. In addition, the Brazilian Real currency dropped to its lowest point versus the dollar in history on Thursday.
  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Friday morning, delayed a day due to the New Year Holiday. Expectations are for new sales to range from 800,000 – 1.4 MMT for the week ending December 26. Last week’s reported sales exceeded expectations at 1.711 MMT.
  • Weekly ethanol production rebounded to 327 million gallons per day last week, up slightly from the prior week. Corn used for production last week reached an estimated 112 mb, which is above the pace needed to reach the current USDA target. Ethanol stocks have climbed, however, hitting a 15-week high on this report.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 450, with additional support near 434. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 460 with additional resistance near 475.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1060-1080 versus March ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly higher to start the new year following a sharply higher move on Tuesday that brought March futures back above $10.00 and above recent resistance at the 50-day moving average. Support today came from soybean meal while soybean oil was lower.
  • Soybean demand has been firm, and soybean crush has continued to increase over the past few months. Bloomberg analysts see soybean crush for November at 208.1 million bushels which would compare to 200.1 mb a year ago. Oil stocks are expected to come in at 1.496b lbs, which would be down from the previous year.
  • Support in soybeans has also come from a drier Argentinian forecast that is expected to last for around 10 days. This has specifically been beneficial to soybean meal as Argentina exports a significant amount. Brazilian weather remains favorable, and production estimates continue to rise with an estimate today by StoneX at 171.4 mmt.
  • On December 31 there were 380 deliveries against January soybeans for a total of 489 deliveries. There have been 1,764 deliveries against January bean meal and 617 deliveries against January soybean oil. 

Above: The recent break in prices found initial support near 950. Initial overhead resistance lies just above the market near 1030 with additional resistance between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat prices fell on Thursday, failing to break upside resistance. Traders are navigating a strong U.S. dollar, a poor Russian wheat crop, and firm demand, with the market in a consolidation phase.
  • Pressure in the wheat market today was likely due to a sharp increase in the value of the US dollar combined with the falling value of the Russian ruble. Wheat exports have been slightly better than expected recently though, with cuts to Russian production estimates.
  • The USDA’s Friday export report is expected to show wheat sales between 200,000–500,000 MT for the week ending Dec. 26, compared to last week’s 612,000 MT.
  • Weather forecasts are showing an improved chance of precipitation over the winter wheat belt going into the end of the week.  The U.S. storm track will likely push more southerly, allowing for moisture to help support the crop.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. With harvest underway in the southern hemisphere and winter wheat into dormancy in the northern hemisphere, this can historically be a slow time of the year for the wheat market.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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12-31 End of Day: Grains Trade Higher Going into The New Year

FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING, HAVE A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 31: The CME has regular trading hours, and Total Farm Marketing offices will close at 3:00 p.m. (CT).

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 1: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn markets gained strength to close out 2024, with light trading volume and buying momentum in the soybean market helping to drive corn higher.
  • Soybeans closed higher to end the final trading day of 2024, supported by a drier forecast for Argentina, gains in soybean meal and oil, and some fund profit-taking.
  • Wheat pushed higher into the close, supported by stronger corn prices and rising soybeans. Matif wheat also finished strong today.
  • To see the updated US and South American precipitation forecast, and GRACE-based Drought Indicators, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop.
  • The March 2024 contract has rallied 30 cents from the Thanksgiving low and has recently traded to its highest level since late June. Looking back even farther, corn is roughly 23% higher than the August low when looking at the continuous corn chart. While strong demand has been a main driver of this rally, we are starting to see corn demand slowing at these higher prices. Therefore, Grain Market Insider sees this as an advantageous area to reward this rally by selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.
  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Grain markets saw additional buying strength to close out 2024, with corn futures benefiting from light trading volume and buying momentum in the soybean market, posting moderate gains. However, the March corn futures closed 56 cents lower compared to the end of 2023.
  • The buying strength on Tuesday pushed the corn market past Monday’s potential bearish reversal, trading above Monday’s high. March corn closed Tuesday at its highest price level since June 26.
  • Managed money is still growing a net long position in the corn market. As of December 24, managed funds were net long 160,947 contracts, adding 1,532 net long positions from the previous week. Analysts estimated that fund length may be closer to 200,000 long contracts given the recent corn market strength as a favorable demand tone has supported the corn market.
  • The corn market is likely to start focusing on next Friday’s USDA WASDE report and Quarterly Grain Stocks report, scheduled for release on January 10. Money flow could remain positive, supporting the market amid expectations that strong demand may tighten corn stockpiles for the seventh consecutive month, as current corn ending stocks are nearly 400 mb lower than last year’s totals.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, December 24th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 1,532 contracts between December 17 – 24, bringing their total position to a net long 160,947 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed sharply higher to wrap up the final trading day of 2024, supported by a drier 10-day forecast for Argentina, gains in soybean meal and oil, and likely some fund profit-taking. Crude oil also ended the day higher, which may have provided additional support to soybean oil.
  • The USDA attaché in Brazil is now estimating the 24/25 crop in the country at 165 mmt. Planted acreage grew from last year, and crop estimates have continued to grow as the season continues. Brazilian weather forecasts remain favorable while Argentina may see a stretch of drier weather coming up.
  • Yesterday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 8,369 contracts of soybeans as of December 24. This reduced their net short position to 67,883 contracts. With funds currently holding a large net long position in corn but a short position in soybeans, there may be room for funds to continue buying back contracts.
  • In Indonesia, the government is planning on raising the biofuel blending requirement to 40% next year. This could cause fuel retailers and palm oil suppliers to face higher costs. The increase in demand for palm oil could be supported to soybean oil.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, December 24. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 8,369 contracts between December 17 – 24, bringing their total position to a net short 67,883. contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat managed to grind higher into the close, supported by stronger corn and sharply higher soybeans. Matif wheat also saw a strong close, with the front-month March contract finishing above its 200-day moving average for the first time since October. However, a higher US Dollar Index may have capped the upside for wheat today.
  • A ‘polar vortex’ is expected to move into the US this week, potentially bringing below-freezing temperatures. This cold snap could affect southern wheat areas, where there is little to no snow cover. The risk of frost and freeze damage could be bullish for the market.
  • According to CONAB, Brazil’s 2024 wheat planted area is approximately 12% smaller than the previous year, totaling 3.061 million hectares. However, production is expected to rise by 13% compared to the last crop, with the 2024 harvest estimated at 8.064 mmt, a slight decrease of just 0.4% from 2023.
  • According to the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report, managed funds sold approximately 7,600 contracts of Chicago wheat and 1,900 contracts of Kansas City wheat. They were net buyers of a small amount of Minneapolis futures. However, the total short position in wheat, at nearly 157,000 contracts, is the largest in eight months.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. With harvest underway in the southern hemisphere and winter wheat into dormancy in the northern hemisphere, this can historically be a slow time of the year for the wheat market.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, December 24th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,869 contracts between December 17-24, bringing their total position to a net short 34,936 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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12-30 End of Day: Corn Reverses From Overnight Highs, Wheat and Soybeans End Higher

FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING, HAVE A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 31: The CME has regular trading hours, and Total Farm Marketing offices will close at 3:00 p.m. (CT).

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 1: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures ran into selling pressure Monday after a strong Sunday night session. After six consecutive sessions of higher prices corn ended the day lower.
  • Soybean futures ended Monday higher after running into resistance near the $10 level. Soybean meal and soybean oil both ended the session higher as well.
  • In a quiet session, the winter wheats ended higher while spring wheat futures posted fractional losses. Midday weakness in corn futures added some outside pressure to wheat.
  • To see the US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, as well as the 7-day ECMWF precipitation forecast for South America, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.
  • The March 2024 contract has rallied 30 cents from the Thanksgiving low and has recently traded to its highest level since late June. Looking back even farther, corn is roughly 23% higher than the August low when looking at the continuous corn chart. While strong demand has been a main driver of this rally, we are starting to see corn demand slowing at these higher prices. Therefore, Grain Market Insider sees this as an advantageous area to reward this rally by selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.
  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices reversed early-session gains, posting a technical chart reversal that could trigger further selling ahead of the year’s final trading session.
  • Hedge funds hold a large net long position in corn, but year-end position squaring may add pressure. The latest Commitment of Traders report is due Monday afternoon.
  • The USDA released weekly corn inspections on Monday morning. Last week, exporters moved 878,000 Mt (34.6 mb), down from 1.15 MMT last week. Total Export inspections are running 29% ahead of last year and well above the pace to reach USDA targets for the marketing year.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its Argentina corn planting estimate to 6.6 million hectares (16.3 million acres), from 6.3 million previously citing better profitability for corn compared to soybeans.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after volatile trade which saw prices significantly higher to start the day before fading into negative territory. While the close was higher, March futures may have met some resistance at the 50-day moving average and $10.00 mark. Both soybean meal and oil were higher as well.
  • Today’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections totaling 57.7 million bushels for the week ending December 26. This was within the range of trade estimates and put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.051 bb, which is up 31% from the previous year.
  • The USDA attaché in Brazil is now estimating the 24/25 crop in the country at 165 mmt. Planted acreage grew from last year, and crop estimates have continued to grow as the season continues. Brazilian weather forecasts remain favorable while Argentina may see a stretch of drier weather coming up.
  • CONAB has said that Brazil’s soybean exports are likely to reach 105.5 mmt in the 24/25 season which would be an improvement from the previous season where export totaled 96.8 mmt as a result of lower production.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed the session relatively quietly, with small gains in Chicago and Kansas City, but small losses in Minneapolis. World demand is providing some support, with reports of large purchases by Algeria and Egypt. But technical selling at midday led to prices fading into the end of the session.
  • Weekly wheat inspections at 12.4 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections to 451 mb, which is up 27% from the year prior. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace, with exports estimated at 850 mb, up 20% from last year.
  • Rumors of Egypt purchasing 1.27 mmt of wheat offered early support to the market, despite anticipation that the majority would be sourced from Russia.
  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat harvest is 89% complete as of December 27. This is up from 76% the week prior. Additionally, they left their production estimate unchanged at 18.6 mmt, which remains above the USDA at 17.5 mmt.
  • As reported by IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $237 per mt, which is up $3 from the week before. Furthermore, the Russian agriculture ministry lowered the wheat export tax to 4,346 Rubles per mt through January 14; this represents a 9% decline from the previous figure.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. With harvest underway in the southern hemisphere and winter wheat into dormancy in the northern hemisphere, this can historically be a slow time of the year for the wheat market.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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12-27 End of Day: Corn & Wheat Edge Higher Friday

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures edged slightly higher on Friday, building on Thursday’s breakout above resistance. Strong export sales drove a fourth consecutive week of gains.
  • Soybeans ended the day lower on somewhat disappointing export sales but closed higher on the week. Soybean meal and soybean oil futures were higher on the week as they attempt to rebound from their recent lows.
  • Wheat futures ended the week on a positive note, with Chicago leading the gains. Despite this, wheat remains in a tight trading range as the year draws to a close.
  • To see the US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center and the Brazil and Argentina week two forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you did not act on the prior sales recommendations and/or need to move bushels for cash flow, Grain Market Insider issued a catch-up recommendation on December 11 near the 450 area (Mar ‘25).
  • Over the past three months, the corn market has repeatedly tested resistance near current levels. With post-harvest basis improvements, cash corn prices in many areas are now nearing their highest levels since June. Target the 455 to 460 versus March ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.
  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market ended the week with a quiet session and mixed trade. Strong export sales and demand supported the front end of the market, helping the March contract close 7-3/4 cents higher for the week, marking the fourth consecutive week of gains.
  • On Friday, the March contract traded within a very tight range of 2-3/4 cents, from high to low. Prices are now testing strong overhead resistance, with the narrow range potentially signaling a slowdown in upward momentum.
  • Weekly corn export sales were supportive as U.S. exporters reported new sales of 1.711 MMT (67.4 mb), just slightly above expectations. Total sales are still trending 29% higher than last year and ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA export targets. Mexico was the largest buyer of corn for the week.
  • While futures prices have rallied, in some regions of the corn belt, the cash market has absorbed the gains as basis levels have widened to balance the market as producers have been active in selling bushels.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower, giving back a portion of yesterday’s gains and were mainly driven lower due to a disappointing export sales report. While soybean meal was the leader yesterday, it ended lower today while soybean oil was slightly higher.
  • Today’s export sales report saw an increase of 35.9 million bushels of soybean export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 4.6 mb for 25/26. This was a marketing year low and was down 31% from the previous week and 47% from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 57.8 mb were above the 24.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates, and primary destinations were to China, Spain, and Egypt.
  • CONAB has said that Brazil’s soybean exports are likely to reach 105.5 mmt in the 24/25 season which would be an improvement from the previous season where export totaled 96.8 mmt as a result of lower production.
  • January soybean options expired at the end of the session on Friday. The market pinned open 980 calls and puts on the closed as prices seemed to move to cover the open interest at that strike level. The open on Sunday night could bring some volatility as the market handles those possibly exercised options.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed higher across all classes, supported by a weaker U.S. Dollar Index, stronger Matif wheat futures, and bullish technical indicators.
  • The USDA reported an increase of 22.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 as well as an increase of 0.5 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 13.8 mb fell below the 18.0 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 850 mb. Sales commitments have reached 616 mb, which is up 11% from last year.
  • China has reportedly increased financial support for farmers, with lower interest rates and expanding loan ability. Additionally, their government is said to have promised more support for ag research projects. All of this is aimed at national food security and less reliance on grain imports.
  • Turkey’s 2024 wheat output fell 5.5% to 20.8 mmt, likely increasing import needs. Reduced Russian production may open opportunities for U.S. exports.
  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat crop is 64% harvested. Furthermore, the crop remains in very good condition overall; 86% of the crop is rated normal to excellent, compared with 58% a year ago.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of your remaining open July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 93 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 16% from its October high of 656.25, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 Chicago Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.
  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Brazil and Argentina week two forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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12-26 End of Day: Markets Close Higher Following the Holiday

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn finished the day with moderate gains supported by strong rally in soybean and soybean meal markets.
  • Higher soybean meal and low volume trade following the Christmas holiday lead gains in the soybean market.  
  • It was a solid day of gains in all three US wheat classes driven by the sharply higher soybean futures. The day of gains is also likely due to a drier than anticipated 10-day weather outlook in Argentina.
  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor as well as the South American GRACE-Based Root Zone Soil Moisture Drought Indicator courtesy of NASA, University of Nebraska-Lincoln scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you did not act on the prior sales recommendations and/or need to move bushels for cash flow, Grain Market Insider issued a catch-up recommendation on December 11 near the 450 area (Mar ‘25).
  • Over the past three months, the corn market has repeatedly tested resistance just above current levels. With post-harvest basis improvements, cash corn prices in many areas are now nearing their highest levels since June. Target the 455 to 460 versus March ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.
  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong buying moved into the grain markets on Thursday, fueled by a strong rally in soybean and soybean meal markets. That buying strength supported the corn market as futures finished with moderate gains. March corn posted its highest daily close since June 27.
  • Drier than normal forecasts for Argentina have triggered short covering in the soybean and meal markets, adding some weather premium into the market. Corn futures are watching Argentina weather as well as the Argentina corn crop is finishing planting and could be limited with a drier forecast.
  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Friday morning. Expectations for new sales to range from 1.0 MMT –1.6 MMT for the week ending Dec 19. Last week, export sales were 1.17 MMT as the pace remains strong.
  • The demand in the corn market will be a key driver in price. Export demand and ethanol usage are still ahead of USDA pace, and U.S. corn is still the largest player in the corn export market through spring with limited global export supplies.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly higher following the Christmas holiday and were driven by sharply higher soybean meal and low volume trade. March soybeans have now rallied 50 cents from their contract low on December 19. Soybean oil closed lower today.
  • There was little news and less volume for soybeans to trade today, but the dominating factor seemed to be the new slightly drier forecast for Argentina over the next 10 days. This is not likely to affect production much but could be temporarily supporting meal prices.
  • CONAB has reported that Brazil is expected to export 105.5 mmt of soybeans in the 24/25 season. Through November of this year, the country’s soybean exports total 96.8 mmt, which is down 46% from the previous period.
  • Funds hold a large net short position in soybeans and may be buying a portion back before the end of the year. Additionally, soybeans have been closely following moves in the Brazilian real which was higher today and therefore supportive.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat classes saw solid gains today, driven primarily by spillover support from sharply higher soybean futures. This itself was likely due to a gap higher in meal after Argentina’s 10-day weather outlook turned drier. Additionally, lighter trade volume surrounding the holidays may be leading to increased volatility.
  • The US Dollar Index continued to consolidate today but remains at an elevated level. If it sets back, that may give wheat some room to rally. But from a technical perspective, it is forming a bullish pennant chart formation. If this pattern is accurate, it could mean that the Dollar is due for a breakout to the upside, which would likely lead to weakness in the wheat market.
  • Data out of Russia indicates that their 2024 wheat crop reached 82 mmt. It was also said that frost damage in the spring and drought in the summer led to a 30% decline in production for Russia’s largest growing area. Finally, their government is estimating 25/26 wheat exports at 36.4 mmt, compared to the USDA estimate of 47 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of your remaining open July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 93 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 16% from its October high of 656.25, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 Chicago Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.
  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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12-23 End of Day: Markets Close Mixed as the Shortened Holiday Week Kicks Off

MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 24: The CME closes at 12:15 p.m. (CT), and Total Farm Marketing offices close at 1:00 p.m. (CT). There will be no End of Day Grain Market Insider

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 25: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After a day of quiet back-and-forth trade within a tight 3-cent range, the corn market settled mixed. The front months closed higher, supported by additional demand, while new-crop contracts settled fractionally weaker.
  • Bear spreading and weakness in the meal market, driven by a forecast of rain in Central Argentina, pushed soybeans lower. The front months closed near session lows, while new-crop contracts settled mid-range and fractionally lower.
  • Despite a drop in the US dollar, the wheat complex posted gains across all three classes, supported by reports of a cap on Russian wheat exports and sharply higher Matif wheat prices.
  • To see the updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you did not act on the prior sales recommendations and/or need to move bushels for cash flow, Grain Market Insider issued a catch-up recommendation on December 11, with the next catch-up target at 455 (Mar ‘25).
  • If you have followed all prior sales recommendations and are comfortable with cash flow until spring, Grain Market Insider advises holding steady for now.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.
  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market ended the day mixed after a session of quiet, two-sided trade within a tight 3-cent range. The nearby March contract closed just off the day’s high, supported by solid demand, while Dec ’25 finished mid-range and fractionally lower.
  • This morning, the USDA announced private export sales of 132,000 tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
  • Export inspections for corn for the week ending December 19 came in at the upper end of expectations at 1.122 million metric tons. While inspections were lower than the same week last year, total inspections remain 27% higher season-to-date.
  • With a shortened holiday week and year-end quickly approaching, trade could remain choppy on light volume as traders hesitate to extend their risk, opting instead to square positions ahead of year-end to protect profits.
  • Grain markets are scheduled to close at 12:05 PM CST on Tuesday and remain closed until 8:30 AM Thursday for the Christmas holiday.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, December 17. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 6,475 contracts between December 11 – 17, bringing their total position to a net long 165,890 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower, with the front months leading the decline due to bear spreading. There was relatively little news today due to holiday trade, but the US dollar was higher against the Brazilian real, which tends to dampen export demand. Soybean meal was lower, while soybean oil was higher.
  • This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
  • China is seemingly loading up on US soybeans before potential tariffs take place under the Trump administration. Sinograin has purchased 500,000 tons of US soybeans for delivery in March-April, reportedly preferring the quality of US soybeans. However, there are concerns that export demand may slide next year if tariffs are implemented.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of soybeans. They sold 17,932 contracts, leaving them net short 76,252 contracts.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, December 17. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 17,932 contracts between December 11 – 17, bringing their total position to a net short 76,252 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite some strength in the US dollar, all three wheat classes posted solid gains, potentially supported by recent news that Russia intends to cap further wheat exports at 10.6 mmt for the second half of the marketing year, after shipping a record-large 29 mmt in the first half. Sharply higher Matif wheat futures also offered additional support. Volatility may increase given the shortened trading week and lower trade volume surrounding Christmas.
  • Weekly wheat inspections of 14.8 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 439 mb, up 34% from last year. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace; wheat exports for 24/25 are projected at 850 mb, up 20% year-over-year.
  • From a technical perspective, Chicago wheat futures had become oversold following the recent price tumble. Daily stochastics now show a crossover signal, which could indicate a near-term bottom and suggest the market is due for a correction to the upside.
  • Last week, managed funds added over 20,000 contracts to their net short position in Chicago wheat, bringing the total short to about 87,000 contracts. This could leave the market primed for a short-covering rally, but fresh bullish news may be needed to ignite it, especially as both the Australian and Argentine wheat crops are larger than last year.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of your remaining open July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 93 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 16% from its October high of 656.25, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 Chicago Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.
  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, December 17. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 20,622 contracts between December 11 – 17, bringing their total position to a net short 87,401 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, December 17. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,369 contracts between December 11 – 17, bringing their total position to a net short 33,067 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, December 17. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,045 contracts bringing their total position to a net short 27,017 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.