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2-28 End of Day: Grain Freefall Continues Friday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures tumbled again to end the week, with corn marking its sixth consecutive lower close.

  • Soybeans: Weak export sales, Brazilian harvest pressure, and declines in corn and wheat prices weighed on soybeans to end the week.

  • Wheat: Improved weather in the Plains and continued weakness in corn prices pressured wheat futures lower on Friday. Wheat has now closed lower in seven of the last eight trading sessions.

  • To see the updated 30-day percent of normal rainfall map for South America as well as the updated U.S. drought monitor, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Wicked Monthly Bar: Six consecutive down days to close the month have dramatically altered the charts. The monthly chart now has a major bearish reversal, with today’s May close sitting 49.25 cents below the February high of 518.75 on the front-month continuous contract.

  • Resistance Concerns: At the start of February, Grain Market Insider flagged the heavy historical resistance clustered between 495–515 and made three sales recommendations on: February 4 at 494.50, February 18 at 512, and February 20 at 512.75.

  • Hold: Given the severity of the recent selloff and the three prior sales recommendations, the guidance remains to hold off on making any additional old crop sales.

2025 Crop: 

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and the recent call option recommendation, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead — especially weather — it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 corn on the upside and $3–$4 corn on the downside.

  • Balanced Approach: Last week’s sales recommendations provide a stronger buffer against downside price scenarios, while the active call options strategy reopens upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market.  

  • Potential Put Options: Next week, as we enter March, Grain Market Insider may recommend adding December ’25 put options. These options can be a valuable hedging tool, helping to protect against downside risk on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest. If put options are recommended, they will combine with the existing call options to form a strategy known as a Strangle — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

2026 Crop: 

  • Active Window: As we enter March next week, the window opens for the first 2026 corn crop targets to emerge at any time. Stay tuned!

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The end of the month of February saw strong selling pressure and long liquidation in the corn market as prices post sharp losses. The May contract lost 35 ½ cents on the week and closed at its lowest levels since January 9. Corn prices have dropped nearly 50 cents off the high from last week.

  • The proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports remain scheduled to take effect on March 4. Negotiations between the three countries continue, with the possibility of a resolution over the weekend. Mexico, the largest buyer of U.S. corn, could retaliate with tariffs or reduce purchases, adding uncertainty to the market.

  • Managed money entered the week with a near-record long position, leaving the market vulnerable to a correction. Seasonal trends and an overbought market triggered this week’s sell-off, leading to a sharp loss of momentum.

  • December 2025 corn futures hit their lowest level since January 17 today, pressured by expectations of larger U.S. corn acres for the 2025-26 marketing year, as outlined in the USDA Outlook Forum.

  • Despite the downturn, corn demand remains strong, with exports and ethanol production providing support. The recent price drop should help sustain demand as U.S. corn remains competitively priced on the global market.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market had been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Last week, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. Trendline support should come in near 470, with stronger support near 450. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Similar Monthly Bar as Corn: While soybeans saw less volatility than corn in February, the outcome was much the same. A monthly bearish reversal bar also formed on the front-month continuous chart, with the May contract closing 54 cents below the 1079.75 high.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to reown previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • No Changes: The current upside target range remains 1090 – 1125 vs November ‘25.  

  • It’s Still Early: Grain Market Insider has issued only one sales recommendation for the 2025 crop so far, but there’s still plenty of time. Soybeans often present later seasonal selling opportunities than corn.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium.  If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring at the earliest.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the third consecutive day despite a friendly acreage number from the USDA Ag Outlook Forum yesterday as poor export sales, Brazilian harvest, and general bearishness weigh on the grain market. Soybean meal was unchanged in the front months but lower in the deferred contracts while soybean oil led the complex lower.

  • On March 4, President Trump is expected to implement 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada after previously delaying them by 30 days. While further negotiations could postpone the tariffs again, the uncertainty is likely to keep the market volatile.

  • For the week, May soybeans lost 31-1/2 cents while November soybeans lost 30-1/4. May soybeans lost $3.70 to $300.20 and May soybean oil lost 3.22 cents to 44.12 cents. For the month, May soybeans lost 31-3/4, May soybean meal lost $9.40, and May soybean oil lost 2.40 cents.

  • Since the bullish January WASDE report that saw soybean yields cut by 1 bpa, soybean futures have lost nearly 75% of their gains. Declining export demand has been a large factor with declining numbers since Brazil has begun exporting their crop at a more competitive rate. Support could come later in the year if dry weather continues into planting coupled with fewer soybean acres planted.

Soybeans Continue Sideways Grind
Front-month soybean futures continue to flirt with the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A decisive move past this level could trigger bullish momentum, paving the way for a rise toward the key 1100 mark. Should prices dip, reliable support is expected near 1030, with a more stable floor around 1000.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • At the risk of sounding like a broken record, wheat closed lower again today. Kansas City futures were the downside leader. Another move higher for the US Dollar and continued tariff talk did not help the situation. Paris milling wheat futures did close slightly positive, which may signal that wheat is nearing a bottom after several sessions of long liquidation.

  • The Russian agriculture ministry decreased their wheat export tax by 21% to 2,178 Rubles to mt, through March 11. However, the Russian wheat export quota that went into effect earlier this month still offers some hope for support in the wheat market.

  • Warmer temperatures are expected across the U.S. Southern Plains early next week, with a storm system likely to bring beneficial rainfall. This could aid winter wheat emergence from dormancy and may have contributed to the weakness in Kansas City wheat futures.

  • According to the European Commission, 24/25 grain production in the EU will fall from 255.8 mmt to 255.2 mmt in their latest estimate. Soft wheat production in particular was revised down 0.1 mmt to 111.8 mmt.

  • French soft wheat conditions as of February 24 declined 1% from the week prior to 73% good to very good. For reference, this is above the 68% rating for the same time a year earlier.

  • Ukraine’s ag ministry has said that total grain exports since the season began on July 1 have reached about 29 mmt. This is 1% below last year, for the same timeframe. Wheat exports, however, were up 3% year over year at 11.9 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Gravestone Doji: Unfortunately, Chicago Wheat posted the worst monthly close among all grain markets. On the front-month continuous chart, the May contract formed a Gravestone Doji, a bearish reversal pattern where the closing price nearly matches the opening price for the month — a signal of potential further weakness.

  • Seven: The May contract closed 66 cents below its monthly high and has now finished lower in seven of the last eight trading sessions.

  • Hold: Grain Market Insider made one old crop sales recommendation in February, selling at 606.50 on February 19. Given the severity of the recent selloff, the guidance is to pause any additional sales for now.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Head Fake
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range that marked the end of 2024. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rebound.

2024 Crop:

  • Positive Month: Kansas City wheat was the only grain to finish February in positive territory on the front-month continuous chart. Though modest, the May contract posted a 6.75-cent gain for the month.

  • Hold: Despite the monthly gain, the May contract has closed lower in seven of the last eight sessions and is now 69.50 cents below its February high. Given this pullback, the guidance remains to pause any additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Breaks Lower Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 560, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rally.

2024 Crop:

  • Bearish Reversal: The front-month contract ended February with a bearish reversal, closing the month down 4.75 cents and 61.75 cents below its monthly high.

  • Hold: With the May contract closing lower for eight consecutive sessions, the guidance remains to pause any additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

February Whipsaw
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, sending futures back below key moving averages. Moving forward, the 200-day MA is likely to serve as upside resistance, while previous lows near 580 should provide support.

Other Charts / Weather

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2-27 End of Day: Grains Close Lower Following Reports of Tariff Implementation

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures closed lower today, driven by weak export sales and the news of impending tariffs from Canada and Mexico, which added further pressure on the market.

  • Soybeans: After starting the day higher, soybeans ultimately closed lower, pressured by declines in the corn and wheat markets.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures experienced significant losses across all three classes, driven by the rise in the US Dollar Index and reports of tariffs set to begin next week.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: Following last week’s two sales recommendations, the advice is to pause making any additional sales for now.

  • Top or Correction? – The May contract has seen a notable pullback, closing lower in six of the last seven sessions and now sitting 38 cents below its recent high. While this could be a healthy correction within an ongoing uptrend, the nature of the recent selloff raises some concerns. Is this just a pause, or a sign of a bigger shift? Stay alert for further signals.

2025 Crop: 

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and the recent call option recommendation, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead — especially weather — it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 corn on the upside and $3–$4 corn on the downside.

  • Balanced Approach: Last week’s sales recommendations provide a stronger buffer against downside price scenarios, while the active call options strategy reopens upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market.  

  • Potential Put Options: Next week, as we enter March, Grain Market Insider may recommend adding December ’25 put options. These options can be a valuable hedging tool, helping to protect against downside risk on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest. If put options are recommended, they will combine with the existing call options to form a strategy known as a Strangle — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales targets are expected to post for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another week.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures faced strong selling pressure on Thursday due to soft export sales, the USDA Outlook Forum, First Notice Day, and the implementation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. March corn futures closed at their lowest level since the January WASDE report.

  • The USDA outlook for gave baseline projections for corn acreage for the 2025-26 marketing year on Thursday morning. The USDA feels that U.S. producer could plant 94 million acres of corn in the next marketing year. This was up 3.4 million for 2024-25. The increased acres could push early carryout projection toward 2.0 billion for the 2025-26 marketing year.

  • Weekly corn export sales were disappointing this week. For the week ending February 20, the USDA reported new sales of 795,000 mt, below the low end of analysts’ expectations. The market may be concerned about slowing demand due to higher corn prices and the approaching harvest of South American corn. Total sales are still running 28% ahead of last year’s pace, slightly down from 29% last week.

  • President Trump announced that the 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, scheduled to take effect on March 4, will proceed as planned. Mexico is the largest buyer of U.S. corn, and the market is concerned about the potential for retaliatory tariffs or a loss of demand. Additionally, President Trump revealed a 10% across-the-board tariff on Chinese goods, also set to be activated on March 4.

  • The Buenos Aires grain exchange saw the Argentina corn crop conditions improve last week and rainfall has turned more beneficial. Corn conditions rose to 21% Good/Excellent, up 3% over last week’s total.  Weather forecasts remain wet for key growing regions, which should help support the crop.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market has been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Last week, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. If this correction continues, support is expected around 475, with stronger support near 450. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: With recent sales recommendations in place, the guidance is to pause additional sales for now, as the May contract has closed lower in four of the last five sessions.

  • Potential Call Strategy: If May soybeans close above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider may recommend a call option strategy to reown previous sales recommendations…stay tuned.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 remain the upside target range vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after starting higher, fading into the close under pressure from corn and wheat, which led the market lower. This morning’s acreage report from the USDA was supportive for soybeans. Both soybean meal and oil also closed lower, with meal posting the larger losses.

  • This morning, the USDA Ag Outlook Forum released its estimates for the 2025 planted acres, and for soybeans, they are estimating 84.0 million acres. This would be down from last year’s 87.1 ma as the USDA assumes that acres will be given to corn. This would put ending stocks at 320 million bushels.

  • Today’s export sales report showed another week of disappointing soybean sales. The USDA reported an increase of 15.1 million bushels of export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.1 mb for 25/26. Last week’s export shipments of 35.7 mb were above the 17.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and Mexico.

  • On March 4, it is expected that President Trump will enact 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada after pushing the tariffs off 30 days ago. While it is possible that further negotiations could delay these tariffs again, the market will likely be volatile until it is confirmed.

Soybeans Continue Sideways Grind
Front-month soybean futures continue to flirt with the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A decisive move past this level could trigger bullish momentum, paving the way for a rise toward the key 1100 mark. Should prices dip, reliable support is expected near 1030, with a more stable floor around 1000.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures took a hit today, posting sharp losses across all three classes. Traders’ focus was on the USDA’s remarks, but a sharp rise in the US Dollar Index, a lower close for Paris milling wheat, and declines in corn and soybeans all weighed negatively on the wheat market. Additionally, reports indicate that tariffs on Mexico and Canada will begin next week, adding further pressure to the grain markets.

  • At the USDA Outlook Forum today, 2025 wheat acreage was estimated at 47 million, an increase of 0.9 million from last year. Additionally, the trendline yield of 50.1 bpa would result in a production estimate of 1.926 bb and ending stocks of 826 mb. While these numbers were largely in line with expectations, the absence of supportive news contributed to the negative price action today.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 9.9 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.2 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 13.9 mb fell under the 20.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 850 mb. Sales commitments at 733 mb for 24/25 are up 10% from last year, which is behind the USDA estimated pace.

  • IKAR has reduced their estimate of Russian wheat exports for 24/25 by 0.5 mmt to 42.5 mmt. Additionally, their range of production estimates declined. In a normal scenario, they project wheat production to decline from 82 to 81 mmt. Under optimal conditions, their estimate has been reduced from 87 to 85 mmt. In a negative scenario, their forecast remains unchanged at 77 mmt.

  • On a bullish note, above-average temperatures are forecasted for India in March, which could potentially reduce wheat yields as the crop matures. After three consecutive years of poor yields, India may need to import wheat if the 2025 harvest is not abundant.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: The May contract has now closed lower in six of the last seven sessions and is down about 60 cents from its recent high already. Current guidance is to hold off on making additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Surges Past Resistance
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average now positions it as a potential support level on any near-term pullbacks. The next upside targets are near 650, with stronger resistance in the 680-700 range.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: The May contract has closed lower in six of the last seven sessions and is down about 57 cents from its recent high. Current guidance is to hold off on making additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Signals Breakout Potential
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could fuel a rally toward the key 700 level. On the downside, the 200-day moving average provides initial support, with stronger backing around 575.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: The May contract has closed lower for seven consecutive sessions and is down about 55 cents from its recent high. Current guidance is to hold off on making additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Confirms Breakout
Spring wheat broke free from its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforces the breakout, with initial support at the 200-day MA and stronger backing near 615 — the top of the previous range. On the upside, 650 is the next key resistance before bulls target the elusive 700 level.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-26 End of Day: Grains Continue Lower Wednesday

ByLisa Heder

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Sellers pressured the corn market again on Wednesday, with weaker weekly ethanol production and expectations for a large 2025 planted acreage estimate weighing on prices.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower on Wednesday as ongoing harvest pressure from Brazil weighed on prices. Both soybean meal and oil were lower today as well.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures extended their decline on Wednesday, with Minneapolis wheat leading the losses.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the surface soil moisture drought indicator for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Last week Grain Market Insider made two sales recommendations for your 2024 corn crop.

  • Hold Recommendation: Following last week’s two sales recommendations, the advice is to pause making any additional sales for now. The May contract is undergoing a correction, having closed lower in five of the last six sessions.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 510 corn calls and December ‘25 550 corn calls in equal quantities, with a total net spend of approximately 43 cents plus commission and fees.  

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and this call option strategy, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead — especially weather — it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 corn on the upside and $3–$4 corn on the downside.

  • Balanced Approach: Last week’s sales recommendations provide a stronger buffer against downside price scenarios, while the active call options strategy reopens upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market.  

  • Looking ahead: Next week, the first week of March, Grain Market Insider will evaluate a potential put option recommendation — details to come.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales targets are expected to post for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another week.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market faced additional selling pressure on Wednesday, as First Notice Day and expectations for a large acreage projection at the USDA Outlook Forum on Thursday triggered further long liquidation.

  • The USDA will release its baseline projection at the Ag Outlook forum on Thursday morning. These are baseline budgetary items but give the market a possible direction for 2025-26 marketing year. Expectations are for the USDA to forecast 93.6 million acres of corn for the 2025-26 marketing year. This would be up 3 million acres for 24-25. If realized, potential carryout projections for the next marketing year could push back towards the 2-billion-bushel level.

  • February 28 is first notice day for March futures, which can trigger additional volatility and selling pressure on the market.  Traders who hold long March futures positions need to roll those positions or risk delivery after that date.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales data on Thursday, with expectations for new sales for the week ending February 20 ranging from 900,000 to 1.65 MMT. The last reported export sale was on February 14, yet overall sales remain ahead of pace for the marketing year.

  • Weekly ethanol production slipped last week to 318 million gallons, down 1 million from last week.  Production was still at the top of expectations. Approximately 108 mb of corn was used last week in ethanol production, which is still trending ahead of the USDA pace for the marketing year.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market has been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Last week, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. If this correction continues, support is expected around 475, with stronger support near 450. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Potential Call Strategy: If May soybeans close above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider may recommend a call option strategy to reown previous sales recommendations…stay tuned.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 remain the upside target range vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower today as pressure from Brazil’s ongoing harvest continues, but May futures found support at the 50-day moving average both yesterday and today. First notice day for March soybeans is on Friday which could be pressuring prices. Both soybean meal and oil were lower today.

  • Estimates for tomorrow’s USDA Outlook Forum see analysts expecting a decline in soybean planted acres in 2025 in favor of corn acres. The average trade estimate sees soybean acres at 84.4 million compared to 87.1 ma last year. These are only rough estimates but would be friendly.

  • Tomorrow’s USDA Outlook Forum will also show estimates for 25/26 US ending stocks that see soybean ending stocks unchanged from last year at 0.380 billion bushels, but the range is anywhere from 0.282 to 0.434 billion bushels.

  • In Argentina, soybeans on the national level are reportedly seeing better than expected crop ratings after a period of drought that lowered crop conditions. There have been three weeks of rain following the drought that have slowed down yield losses in the country’s core growing zone.

Soybeans Continue Sideways Grind
Front-month soybean futures continue to flirt with the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A decisive move past this level could trigger bullish momentum, paving the way for a rise toward the key 1100 mark. Should prices dip, reliable support is expected near 1030, with a more stable floor around 1000.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat continued to fade lower today, with Minneapolis futures leading the way down. A lower close for Matif wheat futures and a higher US Dollar Index offered no support. Without much other fundamental news to drive the market, technical momentum is dragging wheat lower.

  • Reports suggest Ukraine has agreed to allow U.S. access to a portion of its mineral resources, though details remain unclear. Speculation that this could indicate progress toward ending the war with Russia may be pressuring wheat prices, as a resolution could lead to increased wheat exports from the region.

  • A Reuters poll projects U.S. wheat stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year to rise by 35 million bushels to 830 million. Traders will look to the USDA’s estimates at this week’s Outlook Forum, though history suggests the agency tends to underestimate stocks at this stage, having done so in 10 of the past 11 years.

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sale: Last Wednesday Grain Market Insider issued the first sales recommendation for your 2024 SRW wheat crop since May of last year.

  • Hold: The May contract has closed lower in four of the last five sessions and is down about 35 cents from its recent high. Current guidance is to hold off on additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Next Target: If the July contract can maintain its uptrend, the next sales target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Surges Past Resistance
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average now positions it as a potential support level on any near-term pullbacks. The next upside targets are near 650, with stronger resistance in the 680-700 range.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: The May contract has closed lower in five of the last six sessions and is down about 44 cents from its recent high. Current guidance is to hold off on additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: Given the recent sales recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Signals Breakout Potential
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could fuel a rally toward the key 700 level. On the downside, the 200-day moving average provides initial support, with stronger backing around 575.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: The May contract has closed lower for six consecutive sessions and is down about 42 cents from its recent high. Current guidance is to hold off on additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Confirms Breakout
Spring wheat broke free from its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforces the breakout, with initial support at the 200-day MA and stronger backing near 615 — the top of the previous range. On the upside, 650 is the next key resistance before bulls target the elusive 700 level.

Other Charts / Weather

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2-25 End of Day: Soybeans Mixed, Corn and Wheat Lower Tuesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures closed slightly lower today, pressured by improved South American weather forecasts and seasonal market weakness.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed mixed on Tuesday, with front-month contracts higher and deferred months lower. Ongoing harvest pressure from Brazil and improving crop conditions in Argentina continued to weigh on the market.

  • Wheat: A lack of fresh supportive news and ongoing tariff concerns pressured wheat futures on Tuesday, while forecasts for beneficial moisture in the Plains added to the weakness.

  • To see the updated South America 10-day precipitation forecast scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Last week Grain Market Insider made two sales recommendations for your 2024 corn crop.

  • Hold Recommendation: Following last week’s two sales recommendations, the advice is to pause making any additional sales for now. The May contract is undergoing a correction, having closed lower in four of the last five sessions.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 510 corn calls and December ‘25 550 corn calls in equal quantities, with a total net spend of approximately 43 cents plus commission and fees.  

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and this call option strategy, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead — especially weather — it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 corn on the upside and $3–$4 corn on the downside.

  • Balanced Approach: Last week’s sales recommendations provide a stronger buffer against downside price scenarios, while the active call options strategy reopens upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market.  

  • Looking ahead: Next week, Grain Market Insider will evaluate a potential put option recommendation — details to come.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales targets are expected to post for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another week.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished lower for the third consecutive day as prices finished with marginal losses. Improved weather forecasts in Argentina and seasonal weakness pressured the corn market during the session.

  • The last week of February is historically a period of weakness in the corn market. This week is typically a pricing period for March basis contracts as producers need to decide to price bushels or roll contracts to future months.  In addition, first notice day for March futures is on Feb 28, which can trigger additional volatility.

  • South American weather continues to pressure corn prices. Forecasts for Argentina remain favorable, helping to stabilize the corn crop after hot and dry conditions. Models indicate the potential for widespread rainfall in key growing regions.

  • Brazil’s top corn producing state of Mato Grasso, analyst have stated that improved weather has allowed planting of the second crop corn to advance to nearly 70% complete. This has corn planting back on schedule versus the 5-year average after early season delays.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market has been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Last week, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. If this correction continues, support is expected around 475, with stronger support near 450. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Potential Call Strategy: If May soybeans close above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider may recommend a call option strategy to reown previous sales recommendations…stay tuned.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 remain the upside target range vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the three front months closing higher, while the deferred months were lower. Futures came back significantly from this morning’s lows, which saw prices down as much as 10 cents. Prices then bounced off the 100-day moving average, which has been support. Soybean meal was higher, while soybean oil was lower.

  • In Brazil, the 24/25 soybean harvest is reportedly 39% complete as of February 20. This compares to 23% completion a week ago and 40% at the same time last year. The soy output is now estimated at 168.2 mmt compared to 171 mmt last month.

  • In Argentina, soybeans on the national level are reportedly seeing better than expected crop ratings after a period of drought that lowered crop conditions. There have been three weeks of rain following the drought that have slowed down yield losses in the country’s core growing zone.

  • While the 100-day moving average has provided support over the past two months, soybean prices have been under pressure due to declining export demand. Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper than U.S. offers, and renewed tariff concerns following statements from President Trump have added uncertainty to the market.

Soybeans Continue Sideways Grind
Front-month soybean futures continue to flirt with the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A decisive move past this level could trigger bullish momentum, paving the way for a rise toward the key 1100 mark. Should prices dip, reliable support is expected near 1030, with a more stable floor around 1000.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across the board. The grain complex was under pressure today on talk that tariffs on Mexico and Canada will move forward next week. Furthermore, a lack of fresh friendly news and anticipation for rains in the U.S. plains brought weakness into the wheat market.

  • Egypt’s supply minister reported that the country has enough soybean oil and wheat to cover five months of usage. Domestic wheat consumption stands at 750,000 metric tons per month, with total grain storage capacity at 5 million metric tons.

  • SovEcon has decreased their estimate of Russian 24/25 wheat exports by 0.6 mmt to 42.2 mmt. For reference the USDA’s estimate is still sitting at 45.5 mmt.

  • As of February 23, winter wheat ratings in Texas increased by 4% vs last week to 37% good to excellent. However, conditions in Oklahoma declined by 6% from the prior rating to 34% good to excellent. Of note, the last released crop condition data for Oklahoma was on February 2.

  • According to the Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit, European Union winter crops are in mostly fair to good condition. However, January weather in northwest France was unfavorable, which could affect their wheat crop. Additionally, surrounding regions including Ukraine and northern Africa may have seen greater yield losses.

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sale: Last Wednesday Grain Market Insider issued the first sales recommendation for your 2024 SRW wheat crop since May of last year.

  • Hold: The May contract has closed lower in four of the last five sessions and is down about 35 cents from its recent high. Current guidance is to hold off on additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Next Target: If the July contract can maintain its uptrend, the next sales target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Surges Past Resistance
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average now positions it as a potential support level on any near-term pullbacks. The next upside targets are near 650, with stronger resistance in the 680-700 range.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given the recent sale recommendation, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: Given the recent sales recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Signals Breakout Potential
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could fuel a rally toward the key 700 level. On the downside, the 200-day moving average provides initial support, with stronger backing around 575.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Confirms Breakout
Spring wheat broke free from its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforces the breakout, with initial support at the 200-day MA and stronger backing near 615 — the top of the previous range. On the upside, 650 is the next key resistance before bulls target the elusive 700 level.

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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2-24 End of Day: Grains Stumble to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: A break of technical support, coupled with weakness in wheat and soybean futures, pressured corn prices to start the week.

  • Soybeans: Ongoing harvest pressure in Brazil and an improved weather outlook for Argentina pushed soybeans lower to start the week.

  • Wheat: Forecasted moisture for both the U.S. Plains and the Black Sea region pressured wheat futures to start the week.

  • To see the updated 6–10-day U.S. temperature and precipitation outlooks as well as the updated 10-day GEFS for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Last week Grain Market Insider made two sales recommendations for your 2024 corn crop.

  • Hold Recommendation: After last week’s two sales recommendations, the advice now is to hold off on making any additional sales for the time being.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 510 corn calls and December ‘25 550 corn calls in equal quantities, with a total net spend of approximately 43 cents plus commission and fees.  

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and this call option strategy, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead — especially weather — it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 corn on the upside and $3–$4 corn on the downside.

  • Balanced Approach: Last week’s sales recommendations provide a stronger buffer against downside price scenarios, while the active call options strategy reopens upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market.  

  • Looking ahead: Next week, Grain Market Insider will evaluate a potential put option recommendation — details to come.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales targets are expected to post for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another week.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Moderately strong selling pressure pushed corn prices lower for the second consecutive session as technical selling triggered long liquidation in the corn market. The weak close technically on Monday will likely leave room for additional selling pressure going into tomorrow’s session.

  • The last week of February is historically a period of weakness in the corn market. This week is typically a pricing period for March basis contracts, and first notice day for March futures, which can trigger selling pressure.

  • The USDA released weekly export inspections on Monday morning. For the week ending Feb 20, U.S. exports shipped 1.134 MMT (44.7 mb). This total was toward the lower end of expectations and down approximately 500,000 MT from last week’s total. Regardless, corn export shipments are still ahead of the USDA target and up 32% YOY.

  • Strong corn demand has been a supportive factor, with export sales and shipments maintaining strength. However, the USDA has not announced a reported corn export sale since February 14, during a period when demand is expected to stay active. If the market perceives a slowdown in demand, prices could be vulnerable to correction.

  • South America weather has added to the selling pressure on corn prices. Argentina weather forecast remain improved, helping to support and stabilize the corn crop after periods of hot and dry weather. Brazil weather has turned more favorable for planting of the key second crop Brazil corn.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market has been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Last week, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. If this correction continues, support is expected around 475, with stronger support near 450. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 21,114 contracts between February 11 – February 18, bringing their total position to a net long 353,533 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Potential Call Strategy: If May soybeans close above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider may recommend a call option strategy to reown previous sales recommendations…stay tuned.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 remain the upside target range vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower along with the rest of the grain complex in a very risk-off trading session. Pressure continues to come from the ongoing Brazilian harvest and slowing US export sales in favor of cheaper Brazilian beans. Both soybean meal and oil were lower, but bean oil led the way down.

  • Today’s export inspections report was within trade estimates at 31.6 million bushels and was also slightly higher than last week. Total inspections in 24/25 are now at 1.355 bb which is up 11% from the previous year. Export sales have slowed noticeably in the past few months with cheaper Brazilian soybeans.

  • In Argentina, soybeans on the national level are reportedly seeing better than expected after a period of drought that lowered crop conditions. There have been 3 weeks of rains following the drought that have slowed down yield losses in the country’s core growing zone.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 11,949 contracts leaving them net long 16,526 contracts. They were buyers of soybean oil by 6,912 contracts leaving them long 53,472 contracts but sellers of soybean meal by 9,761 contracts which increased their net short position to 22,090 contracts.

Soybeans Continue Sideways Grind
Front-month soybean futures continue to flirt with the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A decisive move past this level could trigger bullish momentum, paving the way for a rise toward the key 1100 mark. Should prices dip, reliable support is expected near 1030, with a more stable floor around 1000.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 11,949 contracts between February 11 – February 18, bringing their total position to a netlong16,526 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted double digit losses in each of the three classes, leading the grain complex lower. Early weakness stemmed from Matif wheat futures which gapped lower on their open; front month March managed to close the gap, but a small one remains present for the May contract. Also, the fact that much of the central US is wet and warming up should be favorable for winter wheat as it leaves dormancy, eroding any weather premium still in the market.

  • Weekly wheat inspections totaled 13.8 million bushels, bringing the 2024/25 total to 559 million bushels, up 21% from last year. Inspections remain slightly ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace, with the agency projecting total 2024/25 exports at 850 million bushels, a 20% increase from the prior year.

  • Weekend temperatures in Russia were not cold enough to stress the wheat crop, and upcoming rains are expected. These factors pressured the global wheat market today.

  • On a bullish note, IKAR has said that Russia’s wheat export values ended last week at $251/mt, which is up $4 from the week before. Nevertheless, their wheat exports last week were steady, compared with the prior week at 420,000 mt, according to SovEcon.

  • According to Friday’s CFTC data, managed funds bought back 32,500 wheat contracts combined, among all three futures classes. This brings their net short position to 91,510 contracts, which is the smallest in three months. The Chicago contract accounts for the majority of this short position; it was reduced by about 21,000 contracts to 61,500 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Next Target: If the July contract can maintain its uptrend, the next sales target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Out with Force
Chicago wheat shattered its prolonged sideways grind with a powerful February surge, hitting key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. This decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average sets the stage for the MA to act as firm support on any near-term dips. Next upside targets loom near 650, with stronger resistance waiting in the 680-700 zone.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 21,232 contracts between February 11 – February 18, bringing their total position to a net short 61,577 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given the recent sale recommendation, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: Given the recent sales recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Ignites Rally Potential
Kansas City wheat futures launched into February with bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and challenging multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could spark a run toward the coveted 700 mark. On the flip side, the 200-day MA offers initial support, with a sturdier safety net resting near 575.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 8,158 contracts between February 11 – February 18, bringing their total position to a net short 22,090 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout Confirmed
Spring wheat shook off its doldrums in late January, surging past its prolonged sideways range and flashing bullish signals. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average strengthens the breakout case. Initial support stands at the 200-day MA, with firmer footing near 615 — the top of the old range. On the upside, 650 is the first hurdle to clear before bulls set their sights on the elusive 700 mark.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,069 contracts between February 11 – February 18, bringing their total position to a net short 7,843 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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2-21 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Slide to End the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: March corn futures hit resistance at $5 this week, with selling pressure continuing into Friday. Improved South American weather added to the downside momentum.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended Friday lower as weak export sales and Brazil’s advancing harvest weighed on the market.

  • Wheat: Despite weakness in corn and soybeans, wheat futures closed higher, with Chicago leading the gains.

  • To see the updated U.S. drought monitor as well as the updated week one GFS forecast for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop. This is the second sales recommendation this week.

  • Target Range Hit: The May contract once again attempted to break through the upper end of Grain Market Insider’s target range (495–515) yesterday but failed to advance. This potentially stalling momentum triggered yesterday’s new sale recommendation. Keep in mind as the sentiment of market participants has shifted to extremely bullish, that at yesterday’s close, the front month continuous price was already up nearly 38% from the August 12 low of 372.50 – bird in the hand…

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 510 corn calls and December ‘25 550 corn calls in equal quantities, with a total net spend of approximately 43 cents plus commission and fees.

  • The December ‘25 contract closed above 479 resistance yesterday, signaling potential for continued upside movement. Purchasing these call options reopens upside potential on the sales recommendations made to date. Additionally, buying two strikes provides flexibility—the lower strike can be exited once it covers the cost of the upper strike.

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and this call option strategy, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead—especially weather—it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 corn on the upside and $3–$4 corn on the downside.

  • Current sales recommendations are building a buffer against downside scenarios, while the call options purchase helps reopen upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–2 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the week with moderate losses as the March contract slipped 5 cents, once again failing to break above the key $5 resistance level. This came despite strong export sales and support from the wheat market.

  • The USDA announced weekly export sales totals on Friday morning. For the week ending February 13, U.S. exporters posted new sales of 1.454 MMT (57.2 mb). Total accumulated sales are now running 29% above last year and well ahead of the pace to reach the USDA corn export target.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its corn crop ratings, citing recent rainfall that helped stabilize conditions. The percentage of the crop rated “good” increased by 3%, while the “poor” category declined by the same amount.

  • Recent improved weather in the Brazil state of Mato Grasso has allowed corn planting of the second crop corn to catch up to pace. The Brazil Ag analyst group IMEA forecast the corn planting in Mato Grasso is 67.2% complete, just slightly behind the 5-year pace of 70.2%. Mato Grasso produces just under 50% of the Brazil second crop corn.

Corn Bulls Charge Ahead, Eyeing $5 Breakout
Corn’s rally since harvest shows no signs of slowing, fueled by aggressive fund buying and steady demand. Strong technical support remains at 475, with an added safety net near the 450-breakout zone. Now, the market is locked in on the $5 mark—a pivotal resistance level that could open the gates for the next leg higher. With bullish momentum firmly in the driver’s seat, the question remains: can the bulls break through, or will the rally hit a wall?

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 remain the upside target range vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower but have maintained a narrow trading range over the past week. Pressure today came from poor export sales and a general decline in export demand recently. Soybean meal was mixed with losses in the front months and gains in the deferred contracts while soybean oil was lower.

  • Today’s export sales report was poor for soybeans with an increase of 18 million bushels. While this was within trade expectations, export demand has slipped with ongoing Brazilian harvest. Sales were up from last week, but down 23% from the previous 4-week average.

  • For the week, March soybeans gained 3-1/2 cents to $10.39-1/2 while November soybeans gained 7-3/4 cents to $10.59-3/4. March soybean meal lost $1.10 to $294.80, and March soybean oil gained 0.74 cents to 46.81 cents.

  • The International Grains Council decreased their estimate of global soybean production by 2 mmt to 418 mmt. This is said to be largely due to smaller production in Argentina and Paraguay. For reference, the USDA’s February forecast sits at 421 mmt.

Soybeans Eye Breakout After Repeated Tests
Front-month soybean futures are knocking on the door of the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A clean break above this level could ignite bullish momentum and signal a fresh leg higher. On any retreat, solid support is seen near $10, while initial resistance stands at $11, with a bigger hurdle looming near $11.40. The battle lines are drawn—will soybeans finally break free?

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • In the face of lower corn and soybeans, a higher U.S. Dollar Index, and a negative close for Paris milling wheat futures, U.S. wheat had a relatively strong close. Chicago futures led the wheat complex to the upside, despite little in the way of fresh news to drive the market. Support at the 10-day moving average has kept all three classes propped up.

  • Weekly wheat export sales totaled 19.6 mb for 24/25 and 3.6 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 8.6 mb fell below the 19.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export estimate of 850 mb. Total commitments at 724 mb are up 11% compared to a year ago, though the USDA forecast calls for a 20% increase.

  • CoBank estimates U.S. spring wheat acreage will decline 6% to 10 million acres this year. Next week’s USDA Outlook Forum may provide further insight, though it won’t be official data.

  • The Russian ag ministry is reported to have reduced their wheat export tax by 24.6% to 2,742.60 Rubles per mt, valid through March 4.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop.

  • Next Target: If the July contract can maintain its uptrend, the next sales target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Out with Force
Chicago wheat shattered its prolonged sideways grind with a powerful February surge, hitting key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. This decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average sets the stage for the MA to act as firm support on any near-term dips. Next upside targets loom near 650, with stronger resistance waiting in the 680-700 zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given the recent sale recommendation, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Two Sales: Grain Market Insider advised two sales last week—one on Monday and another on Friday—as the July ’25 contract extended its rally for a fourth straight week.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Ignites Rally Potential
Kansas City wheat futures launched into February with bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and challenging multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could spark a run toward the coveted 700 mark. On the flip side, the 200-day MA offers initial support, with a sturdier safety net resting near 575.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout Confirmed
Spring wheat shook off its doldrums in late January, surging past its prolonged sideways range and flashing bullish signals. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average strengthens the breakout case. Initial support stands at the 200-day MA, with firmer footing near 615 — the top of the old range. On the upside, 650 is the first hurdle to clear before bulls set their sights on the elusive 700 mark.

Other Charts / Weather

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2-20 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Post Gains, Wheat Remains Under Pressure

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: The corn market closed the day with modest gains, receiving support from the soybean market and a continued positive outlook in the weekly export report, which remains favorable for corn demand.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans finished the day higher, recovering yesterday’s losses and then some, supported by both soybean oil and soybean meal.

  • Wheat: The wheat market faced resistance today, closing the session with losses as concerns over cold weather eased, with warmer temperatures expected to move into the affected regions by the weekend.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop today. This is the second sales recommendation this week.

  • Target Range Hit: The May contract once again attempted to break through the upper end of Grain Market Insider’s target range (495–515) today but failed to advance. This stalled momentum triggered today’s new sale recommendation.

2025 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 510 corn calls and December ‘25 550 corn calls in equal quantities, with a total net spend of approximately 43 cents plus commission and fees.

  • The December ‘25 contract closed above 479 resistance today, signaling potential for continued upside movement. Purchasing these call options reopens upside potential on the sales recommendations made to date. Additionally, buying two strikes provides flexibility—the lower strike can be exited once it covers the cost of the upper strike.

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and today’s call option strategy, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead—especially weather—it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 on the upside and $3–$4 on the downside.

  • Current sales recommendations are building a buffer against downside scenarios, while today’s call option purchase helps reopen upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–2 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Choppy trade in the corn market saw prices finish with modest gains for the session. With March options expiring on Friday, strength in the soybean market provided support and added volatility to the corn market.

  • March corn options will expire on Friday, potentially increasing volatility as traders adjust positions ahead of the deadline. The 500 level of March calls is the largest area of open interest, and prices may hold near that level.

  • The International Grains Council (IGC) released its latest global corn production estimates, lowering the world crop by 3 mmt due to weather-related impacts on South American production this growing season. However, the IGC’s estimates remain higher than those of the USDA for global corn production.

  • The weekly ethanol production report continues to support corn demand. Production rebounded to 319 million gallons, showing a slight increase from the previous week. An estimated 109 MB of corn were used for ethanol production, keeping pace ahead of the required rate to meet USDA targets for the marketing year.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales totals on Friday morning. Expectations are for the week ending February 13, that new sales range from 900,000 MT –1.6 MMT. Last week total sales were 1.65 MMT as export demand stays supportive in the corn market.

Corn Bulls Charge Ahead, Eyeing $5 Breakout
Corn’s rally since harvest shows no signs of slowing, fueled by aggressive fund buying and steady demand. Strong technical support remains at 475, with an added safety net near the 450-breakout zone. Now, the market is locked in on the $5 mark—a pivotal resistance level that could open the gates for the next leg higher. With bullish momentum firmly in the driver’s seat, the question remains: can the bulls break through, or will the rally hit a wall?

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 remain the upside target range vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher, recovering all of yesterday’s losses and then some. However, prices have remained rangebound over the past week, with support at the 40-day moving average. Soybean oil also rebounded, regaining all of yesterday’s losses, while soybean meal was higher as well, with both products providing support for soybeans.

  • Agroconsult has revised its estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop down by 1.1 mmt, but the new estimate remains a record at 171.3 mmt. This is 15.8 mmt higher than last year’s crop, with the majority of the gains coming from the Center-North region.

  • The International Grains Council decreased their estimate of global soybean production by 2 mmt to 418 mmt. This is said to be largely due to smaller production in Argentina and Paraguay. For reference, the USDA’s February forecast sits at 421 mmt.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised their rating of Argentina’s soybean conditions by 2% to 66% of the crop rated normal to excellent. Additionally, soil moisture conditions were also improved by 5 points. With that, critical weather still lies ahead, as most of that crop has not started filling pods yet.

  • Tomorrow’s export sales report is expected to show soybean sales in a range between 300,000 and 500,000 tons. Export demand has been on the decline recently as the Brazilian soybean harvest progresses and they offer soybeans at a discount to US offers.

Soybeans Eye Breakout After Repeated Tests
Front-month soybean futures are knocking on the door of the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A clean break above this level could ignite bullish momentum and signal a fresh leg higher. On any retreat, solid support is seen near $10, while initial resistance stands at $11, with a bigger hurdle looming near $11.40. The battle lines are drawn—will soybeans finally break free?

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat faced pressure today, closing with losses across all three classes. Minneapolis futures performed the best, likely supported by concerns over drought conditions in the U.S. Northern Plains. However, easing concerns about winter wheat crop damage may have contributed to today’s weakness, as temperatures in the nation’s midsection are expected to warm up by the weekend.

  • According to the USDA, as of February 18, an estimated 20% of U.S. winter wheat acreage is facing drought conditions, marking a 3% improvement from the previous week. However, spring wheat acreage remained steady, with 40% experiencing drought compared to the week prior, well above last year’s 22% for this time period.

  • The International Grains Council has increased their estimate of global wheat production by 1 mmt to 797 mmt. This is above the USDA’s February estimate of 794 mmt. The IGC’s increase is said to be mainly due to a bigger harvest in Kazakhstan.

  • According to their ag ministry, France planted 6.35 million hectares of winter grains for the 2025 harvest, which is up 7.2% from 2024, but still 1.3% below the five-year average. The planted area for soft wheat specifically is up 10% year over year at 4.57 million hectares.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop.

  • Next Target: If the July contract can maintain its uptrend, the next sales target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Out with Force
Chicago wheat shattered its prolonged sideways grind with a powerful February surge, hitting key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. This decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average sets the stage for the MA to act as firm support on any near-term dips. Next upside targets loom near 650, with stronger resistance waiting in the 680-700 zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop on February 5 at 591.75 vs March ‘25.

  • No Official Targets: Following the latest sales recommendation, there are currently no active target ranges to make additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Two Sales: Grain Market Insider advised two sales last week—one on Monday and another on Friday—as the July ’25 contract extended its rally for a fourth straight week.

  • Key Levels: The July ’25 contract is now just 4 cents below the September high of 653.75, marking a 99-cent rebound from the December low.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Ignites Rally Potential
Kansas City wheat futures launched into February with bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and challenging multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could spark a run toward the coveted 700 mark. On the flip side, the 200-day MA offers initial support, with a sturdier safety net resting near 575.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop on February 10.

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout Confirmed
Spring wheat shook off its doldrums in late January, surging past its prolonged sideways range and flashing bullish signals. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average strengthens the breakout case. Initial support stands at the 200-day MA, with firmer footing near 615 — the top of the old range. On the upside, 650 is the first hurdle to clear before bulls set their sights on the elusive 700 mark.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-19 End of Day: Wheat Weakness Pressures Grains Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Spillover weakness from wheat dragged corn lower on Wednesday, knocking front-month futures back below the $5 mark.

  • Soybeans: Soybean meal futures held onto slight gains, while soybeans and soybean oil faced selling pressure throughout the session.

  • Wheat: Futures corrected from overbought territory today, easing concerns about winterkill along with weaker Matif wheat futures added pressure.

  • To see the updated U.S. and South America GRACE-Based root zone soil moisture drought indicator maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • Target Range Hit: Yesterday’s market strength pushed May ’25 to the upper end of the 495–515 target range, triggering a recommendation to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop: 

  • Hold: Given recent sales recommendations, the current guidance is to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Major Resistance at 479: December ‘25 faces strong resistance at 479. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential as we move into the spring planting window.

  • Potential Call Option Strategy: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a possible call option recommendation. This strategy would hedge against existing sales while positioning you for upside exposure in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–3 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure from wheat weighed on corn Wednesday, pulling futures off early highs to close with moderate losses. The March contract’s failure to hold the $5 level could spark additional long liquidation as the market nears overbought conditions.

  • March corn options expire on Friday, which could bring some volatility as positions prepare for that trading deadline. The 500 level of March call is the largest area of open interest, and price may hold near that level.

  • Improved weather in Brazil is accelerating second-crop corn planting, though progress remains behind in key regions. This crop will compete directly with U.S. corn in the summer export market.

  • Strong demand continues to support old-crop corn, with exports and shipments well ahead of USDA targets. The market appears to be pricing in a lower carryout than the 1.54 billion bushels projected in the February USDA report.

Corn Bulls Charge Ahead, Eyeing $5 Breakout
Corn’s rally since harvest shows no signs of slowing, fueled by aggressive fund buying and steady demand. Strong technical support remains at 475, with an added safety net near the 450-breakout zone. Now, the market is locked in on the $5 mark—a pivotal resistance level that could open the gates for the next leg higher. With bullish momentum firmly in the driver’s seat, the question remains: can the bulls break through, or will the rally hit a wall?

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

2025 Crop:

  • New Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after falling from earlier morning highs. Wheat led the way in losses today bringing the entire grain complex lower apart from soybean meal. Soybean oil was down 1.14 cents to 46.15 cents in the March contract. Pressure has come from improving South American weather and Brazilian harvest.

  • In Brazil, conditions have improved for harvest, and the state of Parana is now estimated to be 40% harvested as of this Monday. This was up 7% from the previous week, and 78% of the state’s soybeans have been rated good, 19% average, and just 3% poor.

  • January’s NOPA crush came in at 200.38 million bushels, below the trade estimate of 204.5 mb and December’s 206.6 mb, but higher than last year’s 185.8 mb.

  • Yesterday’s inspections report sales of 720k tons of soybeans inspected for export compared to 1,097k the previous week and 1,292k a year ago. Primary destinations were China, Egypt, and Mexico.

Soybeans Eye Breakout After Repeated Tests
Front-month soybean futures are knocking on the door of the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A clean break above this level could ignite bullish momentum and signal a fresh leg higher. On any retreat, solid support is seen near $10, while initial resistance stands at $11, with a bigger hurdle looming near $11.40. The battle lines are drawn—will soybeans finally break free?

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures tumbled Wednesday, posting double-digit losses in Chicago and Kansas City, with Minneapolis not far behind. Technical correction played a role, as all three March contracts were overbought on daily stochastics. Easing winterkill concerns and a lower Matif wheat close added pressure.

  • Conditions for the winter wheat crop in Texas were released by the USDA, with 33% of the crop rated good to excellent, representing a decline of 3% from the previous figure. Additionally, the fair category fell 3% as well. The poor category was raised by 6% to 24%.

  • The new Egyptian state wheat buyer, Mostakbal Misr, is prepared to supply 2.7 mmt of wheat between January and the end of April to GASC. A reported 777,000 mt have already been received. These supplies will go towards Egypt’s national subsidized bread program. Egypt is a top global wheat importer, with the USDA estimating 12.5 mmt of imports during the 24/25 season.

2024 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell a portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop today.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop.

  • Next Target: If the July contract can maintain its uptrend, the next sales target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Out with Force
Chicago wheat shattered its prolonged sideways grind with a powerful February surge, hitting key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. This decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average sets the stage for the MA to act as firm support on any near-term dips. Next upside targets loom near 650, with stronger resistance waiting in the 680-700 zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop on February 5 at 591.75 vs March ‘25.

  • No Official Targets: Following the latest sales recommendation, there are currently no active target ranges to make additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Two Sales: Grain Market Insider advised two sales last week—one on Monday and another on Friday—as the July ’25 contract extended its rally for a fourth straight week.

  • Key Levels: The July ’25 contract is now just 4 cents below the September high of 653.75, marking a 99-cent rebound from the December low.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Ignites Rally Potential
Kansas City wheat futures launched into February with bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and challenging multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could spark a run toward the coveted 700 mark. On the flip side, the 200-day MA offers initial support, with a sturdier safety net resting near 575.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop on February 10.

  • Hold: Sit tight on making any additional sales for now given the recent recommendation.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: No additional sales are recommended at this time, given the recent guidance.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout Confirmed
Spring wheat shook off its doldrums in late January, surging past its prolonged sideways range and flashing bullish signals. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average strengthens the breakout case. Initial support stands at the 200-day MA, with firmer footing near 615 — the top of the old range. On the upside, 650 is the first hurdle to clear before bulls set their sights on the elusive 700 mark.

Above: From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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2-18 End of Day: Grains Green to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures surged to start the week, with March closing above $5 for the first time in 16 months and December hitting its highest level since last June.

  • Soybeans: Closed higher supported by soybean oil and stronger corn and wheat futures. Export inspections and NOPA crush for January both came in below expectations.

  • Wheat: Strength in corn lifted wheat futures Tuesday, with all three classes posting modest gains. Bitter cold temperatures across the Plains fueled winterkill concerns and supported buying.

  • To see the updated U.S. 6-10 day precipitation and temperature outlooks as well as the 30-day percent of normal rainfall map for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • Targets shifted to May: As volume and open interest shift to the May ’25 contract, Grain Market Insider has adjusted its target range from the March ’25 to the May ’25 contract. Today’s market strength pushed May ’25 to the upper end of the 495–515 target range, triggering a recommendation to sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop today.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 new crop corn.

  • Major Resistance at 479: December ‘25 faces strong resistance at 479. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential as we move into the spring planting window.

  • Potential Call Option Strategy: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a possible call option recommendation. This strategy would hedge against existing sales while positioning you for upside exposure in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–3 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Money flowed into the corn market for the first trading day of the week as corn futures finished with strong gains. The March contract closed above the $5 level for the first time in 16 months. New crop December corn futures finished at their highest level since last June.

  • Strong demand continues to fuel the market. Weekly export inspections for February 13 reached 1.611 MMT (63.4 mb), the highest for that week in 43 years, with exports running 35% ahead of last year and above USDA targets.

  • Preliminary data suggests that corn exports from the U.S. may have broken a 35-year-old record for the month of January. It is estimated that the U.S. shipped over 6 MMT (236 mb) in the month of January.

  • Brazil’s second-crop corn planting is behind schedule at 36% complete (up from 20% last week but below last year’s 59%), as farmers push to finish planting within the ideal weather window despite recent improvements in weather conditions.

Corn Bulls Charge Ahead, Eyeing $5 Breakout
Corn’s rally since harvest shows no signs of slowing, fueled by aggressive fund buying and steady demand. Strong technical support remains at 475, with an added safety net near the 450-breakout zone. Now, the market is locked in on the $5 mark—a pivotal resistance level that could open the gates for the next leg higher. With bullish momentum firmly in the driver’s seat, the question remains: can the bulls break through, or will the rally hit a wall?

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 31,828 contracts between February 4 – February 11, bringing their total position to a net long 332,389 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

2025 Crop:

  • New Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher led by soybean oil and bullish sentiment in corn and wheat. March futures rebounded from overnight lows that saw prices down as much as 10 cents. Export inspections were disappointing and NOPA crush numbers were below expectations. Soybean meal was lower to end the day while soybean oil followed crude oil higher.

  • Today’s export inspections report showed a total of 26.5 million bushels of soybeans inspected for export for the week ending February 13. Total inspections in 24/25 are now at 1.323 mb which is up 12% from the previous year. This was below the lowest range of trade estimates as Brazilian harvest progresses.

  • Today’s NOPA Crush report saw January soybean crush coming in at 200.38 million bushels compared to the average trade guess of 204.5 mb. This was also below last month’s 206.6 mb but higher than last year’s crush at this time of 185.8 mb.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 28,554 contracts of soybeans which left them with a net long position of 28,475 contracts. They were net buyers of bean oil and sellers of meal.

Soybeans Eye Breakout After Repeated Tests
Front-month soybean futures are knocking on the door of the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A clean break above this level could ignite bullish momentum and signal a fresh leg higher. On any retreat, solid support is seen near $10, while initial resistance stands at $11, with a bigger hurdle looming near $11.40. The battle lines are drawn—will soybeans finally break free?

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 28,554 contracts between February 4 – February 11, bringing their total position to a net long 28,475 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures posted modest gains across all classes, supported by strength in corn, soybeans, and Matif wheat. Bitter cold in the Midwest and Plains continues to raise winterkill concerns in areas with limited snow cover.

  • Weekly wheat inspections reached 9.2 mb, bringing the 24/25 total to 546 mb, up 22% from last year and ahead of USDA’s 850 mb export target (up 20% YoY).

  • Diplomats from the U.S. and Russia met today in Saudi Arabia to discuss negotiations for ending the war in Ukraine. However, Ukrainian ambassadors were reportedly absent from these discussions, which raises questions as to what type of agreement will be reached, if any. Nevertheless, traders will be keeping an eye on these talks, as it could impact wheat trade in that region of the world.

  • IKAR reported Russian wheat export values rose $2/mt to $247/mt FOB last week and lowered February 2025 export estimates to 1.6-1.8 mmt from 2 mmt, well below February 2024’s 4.1 mmt.

  • Since their export season began on July 1, Ukraine has shipped 27.5 mmt of grain, according to their ag ministry. This is up about 2% year over year. Wheat exports in specific account for 11.5 mmt of that total, which is up 9% year over year.

2024 Crop:

  • No Change: The 680-705 range for March ‘25 remains the next potential target for a sale.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop.

  • Next Target: If the July contract can maintain its uptrend, the next sales target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Out with Force
Chicago wheat shattered its prolonged sideways grind with a powerful February surge, hitting key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. This decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average sets the stage for the MA to act as firm support on any near-term dips. Next upside targets loom near 650, with stronger resistance waiting in the 680-700 zone.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 7633 contracts between February 4 – February 11, bringing their total position to a net short 82,809 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop on February 5 at 591.75 vs March ‘25.

  • No Official Targets: Following the latest sales recommendation, there are currently no active target ranges to make additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Two Sales: Grain Market Insider advised two sales last week—one on Monday and another on Friday—as the July ’25 contract extended its rally for a fourth straight week.

  • Key Levels: The July ’25 contract is now just 4 cents below the September high of 653.75, marking a 99-cent rebound from the December low.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Ignites Rally Potential
Kansas City wheat futures launched into February with bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and challenging multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could spark a run toward the coveted 700 mark. On the flip side, the 200-day MA offers initial support, with a sturdier safety net resting near 575.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,733 contracts between February 4 – February 11, bringing their total position to a net short 30,248 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop on February 10.

  • Hold: Sit tight on making any additional sales for now given the recent recommendation.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop.

  • Hold: No additional sales are recommended at this time, given the recent guidance.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout Confirmed
Spring wheat shook off its doldrums in late January, surging past its prolonged sideways range and flashing bullish signals. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average strengthens the breakout case. Initial support stands at the 200-day MA, with firmer footing near 615 — the top of the old range. On the upside, 650 is the first hurdle to clear before bulls set their sights on the elusive 700 mark.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,172 contracts between February 4 – February 11, bringing their total position to a net short 10,912 contracts.

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2-14 End of Day: Wheat Leads Grains Higher Friday

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 17, in observance of Presidents Day

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: A strong rally in the wheat market provided support to corn futures, with March contracts testing resistance near the $5 mark.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans followed the broader grain complex higher on Friday, with soybean meal closing firm while soybean oil dipped alongside weaker crude oil prices.

  • Wheat: All three wheat classes surged sharply higher on Friday, driven by escalating tensions from a Russian drone strike and ongoing concerns about potential winterkill.

  • To see the updated U.S. corn and winter wheat areas in drought as well as the South America 7-day rainfall anomaly.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Last Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider last recommended a 2024 crop sale on February 4 at 494.50.

  • Another Attempt at 500: The March ‘25 contract made its eighth attempt to break the 500 level since January 29, reaching an intraday high today of 499.75 before slipping back below prior resistance at 498.50.

  • New Resistance at 499.75: With today’s new high, previous resistance at 498.50 has shifted up to 499.75. A decisive break above this level could open the door for a run toward the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • Strategy: Still no Plan B for now as Grain Market Insider recently recommended a sale within the current range, so the focus remains on giving March ‘25 a shot at clearing 499.75. If it breaks through, the next upside target would be 512, just below the 1996 high of 513.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 corn crop at the current price level.

  • Major Resistance at 479: December ‘25 faces strong resistance at 479. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential as we move into the spring planting window.

  • Potential Call Option Strategy: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a possible call option recommendation. This strategy would hedge against existing sales while positioning you for upside exposure in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–3 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A strong rally in the wheat market provided support to corn futures, but selling resistance at the $5.00 level on the March contract capped gains, leading to a weaker close in the afternoon. Despite this, March corn futures ended the week 8 ¾ cents higher, marking a positive weekly performance.

  • Demand stayed supportive in the corn market as the USDA announced another flash export sale on Friday morning. Colombia purchased 100,000 mt (3.9 mb) for corn for the current marketing year.

  • Despite recent rainfall, crop condition for Argentina corn continued to slide last week. Only 16% of the crop is in good condition, down from 25% last week. Approximately 1/3 of the Argentina corn crop is struggling from recent hot and dry weather.

  • The corn market still has a supportive tone given the global stocks-to-use ratios. Excluding China, global stocks-to-use is at a 29-year low at 7.9%, and with China large supply calculated in, stocks-to-use is at an 11-year low.

Corn Bulls in Control, Eyeing Key Resistance
The corn market’s post-harvest rally remains intact, driven by strong fund buying and robust demand. Solid support holds at 475, with additional footing near the breakout zone around 450. On the upside, prices are pressing against the 500 mark — a critical resistance level that could dictate the next move. With buyers still engaged, all eyes are on whether momentum can propel corn beyond this key threshold.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Break of 1039: This week the March ‘25 contract posted a daily closed below 1039 for the first time since January 17, setting a new monthly low by breaking the February 3 low of 1031.75. This marks the first lower low since the market bottomed on December 19, interrupting the previous pattern of higher highs and higher lows that led to the February 5 high of 1079.75.

  • Possible Trend Change: The break below the previous February low of 1031.75 could indicate a potential trend shift, but confirmation will require additional downside follow-through in the coming sessions.

2025 Crop:

  • Recent Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently advised selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop and purchasing call options. For full details, see the recommendations summary table below.

  • Current Recommendation: Hold off on any additional actions for now. With recent recommendations in place, Grain Market Insider is comfortable waiting for higher price levels, especially given how early it is in the year.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were higher to end the day ahead of the long Presidents Day weekend. The grain complex was primarily led higher by large gains in wheat after a Russian drone strike escalated tensions in Ukraine. Soybean meal was higher, while soybean oil followed crude oil lower.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report was poor for soybeans coming in below the range of analyst estimates at 7.7 million bushels. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and the Netherlands. Brazilian soybeans remain competitive with the US which is limiting export demand.

  • For the week, March soybeans lost 13-1/2 cents while November soybeans lost 5-1/2 cents. March soybean meal lost $5.50 to $295.90, and March soybean oil gained 0.09 cents to 46.07 cents. Pressure this week came from ongoing harvest in Brazil.

  • Yesterday, CONAB released its new estimates for 24/25 grain production this morning and lowered them from the previous month. The new estimates for soybeans are 166.014 mmt which compared to 166.328 mmt in January. This is below the USDA’s last estimate of 169 mmt.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures have repeatedly tested but failed to clear resistance at the 200-day moving average in recent weeks — a stubborn ceiling that has limited upside momentum for over 18 months. A decisive close above this level would be a strong signal for potential further upside. Support is expected to be near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three U.S. wheat classes closed sharply higher on Friday, fueled by reports of a Russian drone strike on the Chernobyl reactor shield. Although reports indicate the damage was not severe and no radiation leakage occurred, the market reacted to the news, likely driven by perception and fund short covering. Continued concerns about potential winterkill, a higher close for Matif wheat, and a weaker U.S. dollar also supported the rally.

  • ABARE is not expected to update their total Australian wheat production estimate until March. However, the Western Australian Grain Industry Association has said that their state’s wheat harvest totaled 12.45 mmt, exceeding the December estimate of only 10.8 mmt. Furthermore, their total 2024 grain production at 22.4 mmt is said to be the third largest on record.

  • FranceAgriMer rated 73% of the French soft wheat crop as good to very good, up from 68% a year ago, indicating a strong crop condition.

  • The 2025 Russian grain harvest could reach between 140-145 mmt, according to OZK Group. For reference, the 2024 crop totaled 128 mmt. This estimate is said to be on the optimistic side, but even conservative estimates project a bigger harvest than last year. On a related note, Russia is expected to export 55 mmt of grain during the 24/25 season, which includes 44 mmt of wheat.

2024 Crop:

  • No Change: The 680-705 range for March ‘25 remains the next potential target for a sale.

  • Slide Ended: The March ‘25 contract snapped its four-day losing streak today, posting a nearly four-cent gain. The overall pullback from the February 7 high appears constructive and orderly, which could set the stage for a move back higher.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop today.

  • First Sale Since September: This marks the first sales recommendation for the 2025 SRW wheat crop since September 3. With the July ‘25 contract up 19 cents this week and logging its sixth consecutive weekly gain, Grain Market Insider is recommending taking advantage of the 78-cent rally from the January low.

  • Next Target: If the July contract maintains its uptrend, the next target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Higher
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. This marks a significant weekly close above the 200-day moving average, which is expected to provide support during any near-term pullbacks.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop on February 5 at 591.75 vs March ‘25.

  • No Official Targets: Following the latest sales recommendation, there are currently no active target ranges to make additional sales.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop today.

  • Second Sale Recommended: Grain Market Insider is advising a second sale this week, as the July ‘25 contract closed up 23 cents today and marked its fourth consecutive weekly gain.

  • Key Levels: The July ‘25 contract is now just 11 cents shy of the September high of 653.75 and has rallied 92 cents from the December low.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Attempts to Break Out
Kansas City wheat futures kicked off February on a strong note, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. A decisive close above the October peak of 623 could open the door for a rally toward the 700 level. On the downside, initial support lies near the 200-day moving average, with stronger support around 575.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop.

  • Latest Sales Rec: This is the first sale recommendation that Grain Market Insider has made for the 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop since June 7 of last year.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop.

  • Stalling Momentum: The September ’25 contract has struggled to maintain its upward momentum, facing strong resistance around 660 for the past four sessions. With the price up about 8% from the January 3 low of 605, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2025 new crop Minneapolis wheat today. This marks the first recommendation for the 2025 crop since July 23 of last year.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout: Rally or False Start?
After months of treading water, spring wheat finally found its spark in late January, surging beyond its previous range and signaling a potential breakout. The next big test lies at the 200-day moving average near 625, a level that could either fuel further momentum or stand as a stubborn ceiling. However, any near-term weakness or a close back below 613 could snuff out the rally, pulling prices back into their familiar rangebound pattern.

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