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3-14 End of Day: Corn and Wheat End the Week Lower, While Soybeans Post Gains

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Feeding off the weakness in the wheat market, corn futures ultimately ended the trading day lower, despite the export sale announcement earlier this morning.

  • Soybeans: Despite the weakness in the corn and wheat markets, soybeans managed to end the week on a positive note, closing higher on the day, supported by lower soybean production estimates in Argentina.

  • Wheat: Wheat ended the week with losses across the board, as weather concerns in the U.S. Southern Plains and the Black Sea region persist.

  • To see the updated 30-day percent of normal rainfall map for South America as well as the updated U.S. drought monitor, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell the first portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Details: Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished lower on the day, posting moderate losses in the front-month contracts. Despite an announced export sale in the morning, weakness in wheat and the expiration of the March futures limited gains to end the week. For the week, May corn futures closed 10 ¾ cents lower, nearly 20 cents off the highs of the week.

  • The March corn futures finished its trading life on Friday, settling at 445 ½. The softer trade on Friday limited gains in the front month contacts. May futures closed the day with a 14-cent premium to the final March trade.

  • The USDA announced a corn export sale on Friday morning.  For the current marketing, US exporters sold 218,604 MT (8.6 MB) to an unknown destination. This was the third report corn export sale for the month of March.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina posted their projection for the upcoming corn harvest on Friday morning.  The exchange lowered estimated production by 8 MMt to 44.5 MMT. This was a significant drop compared to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cutting the crop by only 1MMT on Thursday.

  • The weather forecast in Brazil is mostly favorable for the development of their key 2nd corn crop. Despite that, dry conditions in the east need to be monitored. The market is concerned about a possible spread into the center-south corn producing regions.

Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low that can be built off as we head towards spring. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for at least another couple months.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after a quiet trading session that saw futures mostly unchanged until the latter part of the day. Lowered soybean production estimates from Argentina earlier this week have been supportive. Soybean meal closed lower, while soybean oil led the complex higher, buoyed by rising crude oil prices.

  • This morning, private exporters reported to the USDA an export sale of 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. While soybean export demand has been poor due to a large Brazilian harvest, yesterday’s export sales were above the average trade estimate for soybeans.

  • In Argentina, the Rosario Grain Exchange has lowered its estimate for soybean production to 46.1 mmt which is down 1 mmt from February. This comes after Brazil’s CONAB brought its estimate for production below the USDA’s guess. Also in Brazil, weather is set to be dry throughout the southern regions of the country during pod fill which could also be supportive.

  • For the week, May soybeans lost 9 cents to $10.16 while November soybeans lost 7-1/2 cents to $10.18. The lack of carry in the market is interesting given anticipation of fewer new crop bean acres to be planted this year. May soybean meal gained $1.50 to $305.90 and May soybean oil lost 1.83 cents to 41.59 cents.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As March began, improved weather and harvest pressure in South America caused a sharp price decline. Support held around the 1000 level, with stronger support near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a critical barrier.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with small to moderate losses across the board. May Paris milling wheat had gapped higher yesterday but reversed to fill that gap today, ultimately closing lower. Today’s weakness comes despite ongoing concerns about dryness in the U.S. Southern Plains and the Black Sea region.

  • According to Ukraine’s agriculture ministry, spring wheat plantings are estimated at 5.7 million hectares, which is in line with year ago levels.

  • FranceAgriMer has reported their soft wheat crop condition at 74% good to excellent – this is unchanged from the week prior. However, durum wheat conditions fell 1% to 81% good to excellent.

  • The U.S. Northern Plains are forecast to receive storms bringing a mix of scattered showers and snow. The addition of heavy winds could lead to blizzard conditions, but with the current lack of soil moisture, this precipitation may be welcomed by producers as they approach spring wheat planting.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 701 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 714 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 704 hits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat’s Volatile Breakout and Retreat
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, surging to key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, the late February peak proved to be a turning point, as futures retreated sharply, slipping back into the previous trading range that defined the end of 2024. Support has so far held near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average looms as a key resistance level near 570. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day could signal a potential trend reversal and renewed upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 717 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 677 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Faces Key Technical Test
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, the rally lost steam in late February, leading to a sharp retreat back into the previous trading range. Support has held firm near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average is expected to serve as resistance on any attempted rebound. A decisive close above key resistance will be crucial for reigniting the uptrend as the market heads into spring.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 625 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 647.75 vs September to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 647.75 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, sparking bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, dragging futures back below key moving averages. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as resistance on any rebound, while previous lows near 580 should provide a key support level. A sustained move above resistance would be needed to reignite the uptrend.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: 10-Day Average Precipitation Anomalies of South America courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Unified Gauge 30-Day Percent of Normal Rainfall courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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3-13 End of Day: Grains Close Higher Following Weekly Export Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: The corn market found support today from the strong buying activity in the soybean and wheat markets, ultimately finishing the day with gains.

  • Soybeans: The soybean market closed higher, driven by gains in soybean meal, as strikes at Argentine soy crushing plants continue to impact the market, further supported by stronger-than-expected export sales.

  • Wheat: Wheat closed the trading day in the green, with ongoing weather concerns in the U.S. Southern Plains providing continued support for prices.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION – Sell the first portion of your 2026 corn crop today.

  • Close: The December ‘26 contract closed at 455.25 today.

  • Details: Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong buying in the wheat and soybean markets, coupled with a firm export tone, helped support corn futures during Thursday’s session. Overall, prices consolidated, trading within the range established during Wednesday’s price action.

  • The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning.  For the week ending March 6, US exporter posted new sales of 967,300 MT (38.1 mb) for the current marketing year.  This was up 6% from last week, but down 19% from the prior 4-week average. Mexico was the top buyer of US corn for that week.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange cut its Argentine corn crop estimates to 44.4 MMT, down 1.5 MMT due to impacts from heat and dryness seen during the early part of the growing season.

  • Brazil’s ag agency CNAB raised their corn production forecasts slightly higher in their March production report on Thursday.  The crop was raised to 122.76 MMT, up from 122.02 MMT in February.  Within in the report, CONAB did slightly lower the exportable second crop corn slightly, as the production increase was from Brazil’s first corn crop. Project corn ending stocks were 5.54 MMT for the 2024-25 marketing year, up 2.49 MMT over last year.

Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low that can be built off as we head towards spring. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were higher to end the day giving back nearly all of yesterday’s losses. Soybean meal led the complex higher following strikes at Argentinian soy crushing plants. Export sales were better than expected, which was supportive, but soybean oil followed crude oil lower.

  • Today’s export sales were good for soybeans with sales coming in above expectations at 967,300 mt of old crop and 13,400 mt of new. This put sales ahead of last year at this time by 14%. Soybean oil sales were withing trade expectations while soybean meal sales were below expectations.

  • Arguably the biggest bullish news today was the start of worker strikes at Argentine soy crushing plants. The oilseed workers’ union initiated the strike over layoffs and in protest against the actions of national security forces. This news sparked a strong rally in soybean meal, as Argentina is the world’s top exporter of soybean meal.

  • In South America, Argentina is forecast to receive late rains that should be beneficial to both the soybean and corn crops. The Rosario Grain Exchange has forecasted soybean production at 46.5 mmt, along the same lines as the USDA. Early heat and drought damaged the crop.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As March began, improved weather and harvest pressure in South America caused a sharp price decline. Support held around the 1000 level, with stronger support near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a critical barrier.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed in the green, led by Kansas City futures, with continued concerns over warm temperatures and high winds in the U.S. Southern Plains for the remainder of the week providing support to HRW prices.

  • Weekly wheat export sales totaled 28.8 mb for 24/25 along with 3.0 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 8.2 mb were under the 20.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 835 mb. Total wheat sales commitments have reached 775 mb, up 14% from last year.

  • According to the USDA, as of March 11, an estimated 27% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, marking a 3% increase from the previous week. Spring wheat areas in drought remained steady at 39%, although this is 9% higher compared to the same time last year.

  • Although a ceasefire agreement has been drafted between the U.S. and Ukraine, Russia has yet to concur. News outlets this afternoon report that Putin has stated he agrees ‘in principle’ to a 30-day ceasefire, though the specifics still need to be worked out.

  • IKAR has issued a new estimate of Russian wheat exports, lowering it again, this time by 1.5 mmt to 41 mmt. The USDA is sitting at a 45 mmt estimate. In related news, Ukrainian wheat 24/25 wheat exports have hit 12.4 mmt since the season began in July – this is up 3% year over year.

  • According to FranceAgriMer, the expected French 24/25 soft wheat exports are now estimated at 9.58 mmt. This is down 1.7% from the February guess of 9.74 mmt and is said to be due to a 6% decline in non-EU sales. Additionally, the stockpiles estimate increased from 2.81 to 2.91 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 701 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 714 level.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 704 level.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat’s Volatile Breakout and Retreat
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, surging to key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, the late February peak proved to be a turning point, as futures retreated sharply, slipping back into the previous trading range that defined the end of 2024. Support has so far held near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average looms as a key resistance level near 570. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day could signal a potential trend reversal and renewed upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 717 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 677 level.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Faces Key Technical Test
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, the rally lost steam in late February, leading to a sharp retreat back into the previous trading range. Support has held firm near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average is expected to serve as resistance on any attempted rebound. A decisive close above key resistance will be crucial for reigniting the uptrend as the market heads into spring.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 625 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 647.75 vs September to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 647.75 level.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, sparking bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, dragging futures back below key moving averages. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as resistance on any rebound, while previous lows near 580 should provide a key support level. A sustained move above resistance would be needed to reignite the uptrend.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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3-12 End of Day: Grains Pressured Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: The corn market faced technical selling pressure following Tuesday’s WASDE report, with concerns over trade policy and an unchanged balance sheet weighing on prices.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans extended their losing streak to a fourth consecutive session as ongoing tariff threats created an unpredictable trade environment, prompting a risk-off tone across the grain complex.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures finished mixed as markets reacted to geopolitical tensions following an overnight Russian missile strike on Ukraine’s port of Odessa, where workers were loading a wheat shipment.

  • To see the updated 7-day precipitation outlook for the U.S. and the 7-day precipitation forecast for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • No Official Targets: There have been three official sales recommendations year-to-date, and currently there’s no active target for a fourth sale.

    • Catch-Up Zone: If you haven’t made three sales for 2025 yet, the suggested zone is 480 vs. May to catch up. At today’s high, May got within about three cents of the lower end of this range.

    • Hold Steady: If you’ve followed all three prior recommendations for 2025, Grain Market Insider advises to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop: 

  • No Official Targets: There have also been three official sales recommendations year-to-date for the 2025 new crop corn, and currently there’s no active target for a fourth sale.

    • Catch-Up Zone: If you haven’t made three sales since January 1 yet, the suggested zone is 462 vs. December to catch up. At today’s high December got within about four cents of the lower end of this range.

    • Hold Steady: If you’ve followed all three prior sales recommendations since January 1, Grain Market Insider still advises you to sit tight for now.  

2026 Crop: 

  • First Sales Rec: The first sales recommendation for the 2026 corn crop could be issued tomorrow. Seasonally, now is the time to consider locking in the first early sales. More details to come.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market faced technical selling pressure following Tuesday’s WASDE report, with concerns over trade policy and an unchanged balance sheet weighing on prices. This sparked additional long liquidation as traders reassessed positions.

  • Weekly ethanol production declined to 312 million gallons, down 9 million gallons from the previous week but still 3.7% higher than a year ago. Corn usage for ethanol totaled 106 mb, continuing to outpace the USDA’s target for the marketing year.

  • The recent weakness in crude oil prices has squeezed margins for ethanol producers. Production has remained overall strong, but ethanol stocks are high at 27.4 million barrels. The combination of tighter margins and trade concerns with Canada for ethanol exports could limit production in weeks ahead as a possible trend.

  • Canada farms intend to plant more corn and wheat acres in 2025 according to released Stats Canada estimates this morning. While the corn for grain acre number is small, it is intended to be 3.2% higher than last year.  Market analyst could use this as an estimate to the possible trend for U.S. producers with the USDA Prospective Plantings report to be released at the end of the month.

  • Weather outlook for Brazil is mostly favorable for the second crop corn. The central and southern regions of Brazil will see friendly forecast with a good balance of rain and sunshine. The eastern portions of Brazil are reflecting concerns with an overall drier forecast trend.

Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low that can be built off as we head towards spring. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Catch-up Zone: There have been three official sales recs on 2024 soybeans year-to-date.
    • If you haven’t made three sales since January 1, target 1056 to catch up.

    • If you’re in line with the three sales recommendations, the advice is still to sit tight for now.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to re-own previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • Catch-up Zone: There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans year-to-date.
    • If you haven’t made a sale since January 1, target 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If you’re in line with the one sales recommendation, the advice is still to sit tight for now.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium.  If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans extended their losing streak to a fourth consecutive session as ongoing tariff threats created an unpredictable trade environment, prompting a risk-off tone across the grain complex. Soybean meal and oil also finished lower, despite support from rising crude oil prices.

  • A Bloomberg survey is estimating Brazilian soybean production at 168.7 mmt for 24/25 which is just a hair below the USDA’s estimate. This would be 2.7 mmt higher than the agency’s last estimate in February.

  • There may be some pressure on the soybean market as a result of precipitation in the forecast across areas of the country with poor soil moisture levels. The country has been very dry overall, and many traders have been looking for an upcoming rally on dry weather into planting season.

  • Yesterday’s WASDE report saw US ending stocks untouched at 380 mb. There was a slight decline in world ending stocks which was the bullish part of the report, and no changes to Brazilian or Argentinian soybean production which are at 169 mmt and 49.0 mmt respectively.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As March began, improved weather and harvest pressure in South America caused a sharp price decline. Support held around the 1000 level, with stronger support near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a critical barrier.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat markets were mixed on the day, with Kansas City futures managing to eke out a small gain while Chicago and Minneapolis wheat settled slightly lower. A stronger U.S. dollar added pressure following Tuesday’s somewhat bearish WASDE report, though gains in Matif wheat and concerns over warmth and dryness in the U.S. Southern Plains helped prop up KC wheat.

  • Geopolitical tensions remained in focus after a Russian missile strike on Ukraine’s port of Odessa reportedly killed four Syrian workers who were loading a wheat shipment. While the U.S. and Ukraine have negotiated a temporary ceasefire, Russia has yet to agree to the deal.

  • The Russian ag ministry has issued an order to distribute more of the remaining 2025 wheat export quota. The 2025 quota totals 10.6 mmt between February 15 and June 30, but 8.6 mmt was already distributed in February.

  • Today’s CPI data was not as bad as feared, with an increase of 0.2% in February, bringing annual inflation to 2.8%. This was 0.1% below estimates and the level from last month. This may indicate that inflation is easing, which could have broader impacts on the economy, financial markets, and the US Dollar – all of which could affect wheat prices.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 701 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 714 level.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 704 level.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat’s Volatile Breakout and Retreat
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, surging to key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, the late February peak proved to be a turning point, as futures retreated sharply, slipping back into the previous trading range that defined the end of 2024. Support has so far held near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average looms as a key resistance level near 570. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day could signal a potential trend reversal and renewed upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 717 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 677 level.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Faces Key Technical Test
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, the rally lost steam in late February, leading to a sharp retreat back into the previous trading range. Support has held firm near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average is expected to serve as resistance on any attempted rebound. A decisive close above key resistance will be crucial for reigniting the uptrend as the market heads into spring.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 625 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 647.75 vs September to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 647.75 level.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, sparking bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, dragging futures back below key moving averages. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as resistance on any rebound, while previous lows near 580 should provide a key support level. A sustained move above resistance would be needed to reignite the uptrend.

Other Charts / Weather

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3-11 End of Day: WASDE Keeps Corn and Soybean Carryout Steady, Wheat Carryout Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: With the U.S. corn balance sheet unchanged from last month’s USDA estimates, corn futures pulled back from early session highs, finishing slightly lower on the day.

  • Soybeans: Like corn, the U.S. soybean balance sheet remained unchanged in today’s WASDE report. Similarly, soybean futures retreated from early session highs to close lower on the day.

  • Wheat: An unexpected increase in U.S. wheat carryout pressured wheat futures lower today.

  • To see the updated U.S. 0-40 cm Soil Moisture Percentile as well as the 30-day percent of normal rainfall map and the 14-day precipitation outlook for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • No Official Targets: There have been three official sales recommendations year-to-date, and currently there’s no active target for a fourth sale.

    • Catch-Up Zone: If you haven’t made three sales for 2025 yet, the suggested zone is 480–490 vs. May to catch-up. At today’s high, May got within about three cents of the lower end of this range.

    • Hold Steady: If you’ve followed all three prior recommendations for 2025, Grain Market Insider advises to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY: Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 420 corn puts for approximately 21 cents, plus commission and fees.

  • Downside Protection: Put options serve as a valuable hedging tool, protecting against further downside price erosion on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest.  Combined with the existing call options, this creates a Strangle strategy — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

  • No Official Targets: There have also been three official sales recommendations year-to-date for the 2025 new crop corn, and currently there’s no active target for a fourth sale.

    • Catch-Up Zone: If you haven’t made three sales since January 1 yet, the suggested zone is 462–473 vs. December to catch-up. At today’s high December got within about four cents of the lower end of this range.

    • Hold Steady: If you’ve followed all three prior sales recommendations since January 1, Grain Market Insider advises to sit tight for now.   

2026 Crop: 

  • Active Window: The first 2026 upside targets could post at any time — stay tuned for updates!

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures retreated from early session highs as the USDA made no adjustments to the supply and demand balance sheets in the March WASDE report. Continued selling pressure in the equity markets further limited gains in the corn market on Tuesday.

  • The USDA’s March WASDE report, released Tuesday morning, kept all components of the corn supply and demand balance sheet unchanged from February, leaving carryover at 1.540 billion bushels. Market analysts had anticipated a slight reduction to 1.516 billion bushels, and the lack of revisions kept upside momentum in check.

  • In the export market, U.S. corn remains highly competitive for importers through June. However, as South American supplies enter the market, increased competition is expected to weigh on bids.

  • A sharp sell-off in equity markets may be contributing to a broader “risk-off” sentiment, as growing economic recession concerns limit capital flows into commodity markets.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index remains under pressure, trading at its lowest level since October 2024. A weaker dollar relative to other currencies should help support U.S. commodity purchases on the global market.

Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low that can be built off as we head towards spring. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • New Highs: Given the early timing and soybeans’ tendency to post later seasonal highs than corn, Grain Market Insider is currently leaning toward a price target above the February high of 1079.75 for the next sale recommendation.

  • Catch-up Zone: There have been three official sales recs on 2024 soybeans year-to-date.
    • If you haven’t made three sales since January 1, target 1056–1076 to catch up.

    • If you’re in line with the three sales recommendations, the advice is still to sit tight for now.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to re-own previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower after giving back earlier gains in response to a largely uneventful WASDE report. Soybean oil led the complex lower, extending losses from yesterday following China’s announcement of tariffs on Canadian canola products. Soybean meal also ended the session in negative territory.

  • Today’s WASDE report saw very few changes to soybeans with the U.S. ending stocks number unchanged from last month at 380 mb, but world stockpiles were reduced to 121.4 mmt from 124.3 mmt from February. Brazilian soybean production was left unchanged at 169.0 mmt and Argentina’s production was also unchanged at 49.0 mmt.

  • China’s decision to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian canola meal, oil, and peas sent Canadian prices tumbling, with spillover pressure weighing on U.S. soybean markets. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade relations between the U.S., China, and Canada has also contributed to soybean price weakness.

  • The Brazilian soybean harvest is reportedly 61% complete as of last Thursday which compares to 55% at this time last year which is impressive after the country’s late start to planting.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As March began, improved weather and harvest pressure in South America caused a sharp price decline. Support held around the 1000 level, with stronger support near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a critical barrier.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three wheat classes posted modest losses today, as the USDA report leaned bearish for the market. Higher global production estimates and a 1.5 mmt reduction in Chinese imports weighed on prices, while lower Matif wheat futures provided no support for U.S. markets.

  • The USDA raised U.S. 24/25 wheat carryout from 794 mb to 819 mb, while global ending stocks increased from 257.6 mmt to 260.1 mmt — both above average trade estimates. Additionally, U.S. wheat exports were lowered from 850 mb to 835 mb.

  • World wheat production was revised higher from 793.79 mmt to 797.23 mmt, with increases coming from Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, and Australia. Russian export projections declined slightly by 0.5 mmt to 45.0 mmt, while Ukrainian exports held steady at 15.5 mmt. Australian exports rose by 1.0 mmt to 26.0 mmt.

  • Select states released crop condition data yesterday afternoon. Winter wheat ratings in Kansas fell 2% to 54% good to excellent, while in Texas they declined by 6% to 28%. Oklahoma, however, saw an increase of 11% to 46% GTE. Above average temperatures this week along with high winds in the central and southern plains could zap soil moisture, which may result in worsening conditions.

  • In Argentina, wheat planting will begin in May. Recent heavy rains in main growing areas have led to favorable conditions which could benefit the 25/26 wheat harvest. In recent years, Argentina has dealt with drought, so this moisture will be beneficial.

  • According to Coceral, their combined EU and UK 2025 grain harvest estimate has declined from 297.8 mmt to 296.1 mmt. For soft wheat specifically, their estimate was reduced from 140.4 mmt to 137.2 mmt. However, that would still be above the 2024 harvest at 125.1 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 701 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 714 level.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 704 level.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat’s Volatile Breakout and Retreat
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, surging to key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, the late February peak proved to be a turning point, as futures retreated sharply, slipping back into the previous trading range that defined the end of 2024. Support has so far held near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average looms as a key resistance level near 570. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day could signal a potential trend reversal and renewed upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 717 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 677 level.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Faces Key Technical Test
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, the rally lost steam in late February, leading to a sharp retreat back into the previous trading range. Support has held firm near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average is expected to serve as resistance on any attempted rebound. A decisive close above key resistance will be crucial for reigniting the uptrend as the market heads into spring.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 625 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 647.75 vs September to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 647.75 level.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, sparking bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, dragging futures back below key moving averages. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as resistance on any rebound, while previous lows near 580 should provide a key support level. A sustained move above resistance would be needed to reignite the uptrend.

Other Charts / Weather

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3-10 End of Day: Wheat Higher, Beans Lower on Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Started the week higher, with old crop contracts seeing the strongest gains. Strong export inspections and a flash sale to Japan reinforced the strong demand tone.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans were lower on Monday, despite a flash sale to unknown destinations, ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report.

  • Wheat: Posted double-digit gains to start the week, as early dryness concerns in the Southern Plains and technical buying fueled the move higher.

  • To see the updated ECMWF 10-day precipitation forecast anomaly for South America and the 6–10-day precipitation and forecast outlook for the U.S., scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • No Official Targets: There have been three official sales recommendations year-to-date, and currently there’s no active target for a fourth sale.

    • Catch-Up Zone: If you haven’t made three sales for 2025 yet, the suggested zone is 480–490 vs. May to catch-up.

    • Hold Steady: If you’ve followed all three prior recommendations for 2025, Grain Market Insider advises to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY: Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 420 corn puts for approximately 21 cents, plus commission and fees.

  • Downside Protection: Put options serve as a valuable hedging tool, protecting against further downside price erosion on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest.  Combined with the existing call options, this creates a Strangle strategy — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

  • No Official Targets: There have also been three official sales recommendations year-to-date for the 2025 new crop corn, and currently there’s no active target for a fourth sale.

    • Catch-Up Zone: If you haven’t made three sales since January 1 yet, the suggested zone is 462–473 vs. December to catch-up.  At today’s high December got within about five cents of the lower end of this range.

    • Hold Steady: If you’ve followed all three prior sales recommendations since January 1, Grain Market Insider advises to sit tight for now.   

2026 Crop: 

  • Active Window: The first 2026 upside targets could post at any time — stay tuned for updates!

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished slightly higher, supported by strong demand and buying in the wheat market. The front end of the market saw the most active buying, lifting deferred futures.

  • Weekly corn export inspections were strong at 1.820 MMT, exceeding the top end of expectations. Total corn inspections are trending 33% higher than last year and remain ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA export target.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn on Monday morning. Japan stepped into the export market and purchased 126,000 MT (5.0 mb) of corn for the current marketing year.

  • Second crop corn planting in central and southern Brazil is on pace. Ag consulting group AgRural estimates corn planting in those key regions to be 92% complete, only 1% behind last year’s pace. 

  • Brazil weather conditions for development of the second crop corn will be a major focus in the market. Mato Grasso, Brazil’s largest corn producing province is see very good weather conditions, but area wet and south of Mato Grasso are concerned as forecasts remain warm and dry for that region.

Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low that can be built off as we head towards spring. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 117,702 contracts between February 25 – March 4, bringing their total position to a net long 219,752 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • New Highs: Given the early timing and soybeans’ tendency to post later seasonal highs than corn, Grain Market Insider is currently leaning toward a price target above the February high of 1079.75 for the next sale recommendation.

  • Catch-up Zone: There have been three official sales recs on 2024 soybeans year-to-date.
    • If you haven’t made three sales since January 1, target 1056–1076 to catch up.

    • If you’re in line with the three sales recommendations, the advice is still to sit tight for now.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to re-own previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower with pressure from both soybean meal and oil after a Chinese decision was announced to place tariffs on Canadian canola products. A slow export pace and large Brazilian crop continue to bring prices lower in a downward trending market over the past month. The USDA reported a sale of 195,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for 24/25.

  • Over the weekend, China announced that they would place 100% tariffs on Canadian canola meal, oil, and peas. This caused Canadian prices to tumble and had a spillover effect into the US market. General uncertainty over tariffs between the US, China, and Canada have also lent to the recent weakness in soybeans.

  • The USDA will release its WASDE report tomorrow at 11 a.m., but few changes are expected. Ending stocks for 24/25 soybeans are expected to remain unchanged at 380 mb, as any declines in export demand are likely to be offset by increased crush demand.

  • Today’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections totaling 31 mb for the week ending March 6. This was towards the higher end of trade estimates and was above last week. Total inspections are now up 10% from last year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 43,696 contracts leaving them with a new net short position of 35,487 contracts. They sold 33,383 contracts of bean oil and 22,151 contracts of bean meal.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As March began, improved weather and harvest pressure in South America caused a sharp price decline. Support held around the 1000 level, with stronger support near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a critical barrier.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 43,696 contracts between February 25 – March 4, bringing their total position to a net short 35,487 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted double-digit gains across all three classes, led by Kansas City. Paris milling wheat futures added support after opening slightly higher. Additionally, drier weather, record high temperatures, and heavy winds in the U.S. Southern Plains this week could negatively impact the winter wheat crop as it exits dormancy.

  • Weekly wheat inspections reached 7.9 mb, bringing total 24/25 inspections to 582 mb, up 20% from last year. However, inspections are lagging the USDA’s projected pace, with total 24/25 exports estimated at 850 mb, an 18% increase from the previous year.

  • According to IKAR, the Russian wheat export price declined last week by $1 to $247/mt. Additionally, SovEcon reported that Russia’s wheat exports last week totaled 310,000 mt, up from the 280,000 mt the week before. However, they are projecting March ’25 exports at 1.4-1.8 mmt which would be far below 4.8 mmt of exports in March ’24.

  • Friday afternoon’s data from the CFTC indicated that managed funds added nearly 18,000 contracts to their net short position in Kansas City wheat between February 25 and March 4. This is about an 84% change for the week and brings their total net short in KC wheat to about 39,000 contracts. In Chicago wheat, they added just under 15,000 shorts in the same time period, for a total net short of just over 82,000 contracts. 

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 701 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 714 level.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 704 level.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Head Fake
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range that marked the end of 2024. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rebound.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 14,785 contracts between February 25 – March 4, bringing their total position to a net short 82,399 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 717 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 677 level.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Breaks Lower
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rally.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 17,947 contracts between February 25 – March 4, bringing their total position to a net short 39,282 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 625 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 647.75 vs September to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 647.75 level.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

February Whipsaw
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, sending futures back below key moving averages. Moving forward, the 200-day MA is likely to serve as upside resistance, while previous lows near 580 should provide support.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 11,983 contracts between February 25 – March 4, bringing their total position to a net short 17,192 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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3-7 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans End Volatile Week Near Unchanged

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures ended the week firm as tariff concerns on Mexico and Canada eased. May corn futures finished ¼ cent lower for the week after volatile trading.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans and soybean meal closed mixed on Friday, while soybean oil posted gains. For the week, May soybeans ended near unchanged, recovering 34 cents from early-week lows.

  • Wheat: Wheat closed lower across all classes to end the week, despite another down day for the U.S. Dollar, which fell to its lowest level since November.

  • To see the updated 10-day ECMWF precipitation forecast for South America as well as the 8–14-day U.S. precipitation outlook scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Strong Price Recovery: The May contract closed about 27 cents above this week’s low of 442.50 and ended the week only slightly lower.

  • No Official Targets: There have been three official sales recommendations year-to-date, and currently there’s no active target for a fourth sale.

    • Catch-Up Zone: If you haven’t made three sales for 2025 yet, the suggested zone is 480–490 vs. May to catch-up.

    • Hold Steady: If you’ve followed all three prior recommendations for 2025, Grain Market Insider advises to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY: Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 420 corn puts for approximately 21 cents, plus commission and fees.

  • Downside Protection: Put options serve as a valuable hedging tool, protecting against further downside price erosion on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest.  Combined with the existing call options, this creates a Strangle strategy — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

  • No Official Targets: There have also been three official sales recommendations year-to-date for the 2025 new crop corn, and currently there’s no active target for a fourth sale.

    • Catch-Up Zone: If you haven’t made three sales since January 1 yet, the suggested zone is 462–473 vs. December to catch-up.

    • Hold Steady: If you’ve followed all three prior sales recommendations since January 1, Grain Market Insider advises to sit tight for now.

2026 Crop: 

  • Active Window: The first 2026 upside targets could post at any time — stay tuned for updates!

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the week with modest gains as tariff concerns on Mexico and Canada eased. May corn futures finished ¼ cent lower on the week after volatile trading.

  • The Trump administration on Thursday delayed tariffs against Mexico AND Canada for all goods covered under USMCA agreement until at least April 2. This action helped limit trade war fears going into the weekend.

  • Reflecting the strong demand tone, the US Census Bureau released corn export totals for the month of January. The USA exported 6.16 MMT (243 mb) of corn in January, edging 1990‘s highs and setting an all-time record.

  • The corn market is monitoring Brazil’s weather forecasts, as some key corn-growing regions are experiencing warm and dry conditions, which could impact second-crop production.

  • February rains in Argentina’s key grain-producing regions exceeded recent averages and aligned with long-term precipitation trends, marking a recovery after a dry January. March forecasts indicate a wetter pattern until mid-month.

Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low, with follow-through gains next week reinforcing the outlook. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Strong Weekly Reversal: The May contract finished the week 34 cents off this week’s low of 991, and less than a penny lower overall on the week.

  • New Highs: Given the early timing and soybeans’ tendency to post later seasonal highs than corn, Grain Market Insider is currently leaning toward a price target above the February high of 1079.75 for the next sale recommendation.

  • Catch-up Zone: There have been three official sales recs on 2024 soybeans year-to-date.
    • If you haven’t made three sales since January 1, target 1056–1076 to catch up.

    • If you’re in line with the three sales recommendations, the advice is still to sit tight for now.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to re-own previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The soybean market ended mixed, still digesting tariff-related news, particularly President Trump’s delay of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Soybeans and soybean meal closed mixed, while soybean oil posted gains.

  • U.S. soybean exports are expected to decline, as a larger portion of Chinese demand is anticipated to shift away from the U.S. Additionally, global buyers are increasingly turning to fresh beans from South America as the harvest season advances.

  • Early next week, the USDA’s March Supply and Demand report will take center stage for the markets. There is a high risk that the USDA may lower its soybean export forecast due to China’s 10% retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans. If ending stocks rise more than expected, it could trigger a bearish market reaction, potentially explaining today’s minor weakness. While a new trade deal between the U.S. and China could spark a rally, the ongoing tariff uncertainty remains a negative factor for the market.

  • The USDA has slightly raised its forecast for Brazil’s 2025 soybean production to 169.18 mmt (6.216 billion bushels), up from the previous estimate of 169 mmt. This marks the first upward revision by the USDA for Brazil’s soybean harvest since September 2024, despite several private consultants predicting production figures of around 170 mmt or higher.

  • Despite some recent precipitation, Argentina’s soybean crops remain drought-stressed in several of the country’s top growing regions. As a result, the USDA is expected to reduce its outlook for Argentina’s soybean harvest for the second consecutive month.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000 Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As the calendar flipped to March improved weather and harvest pressure in South America led to a sharp price decline. Support held this week around 1000, with a stronger backing near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a key barrier.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across all classes, following a decline in Paris milling wheat futures and despite a drop in the US Dollar. With little fundamental change, the market remains driven by headlines and uncertainties related to tariffs and geopolitics.

  • Next Tuesday will feature the monthly WASDE report. The average pre-report estimate is for a slight bump to the US 24/25 wheat carryout, up 2 mb from last month to 796 mb. As for world ending stocks, the average trade guess is relatively steady at 257.5 mmt, which would be down 0.1 mmt from February.

  • According to Tass, Russia may impose limits on grain sales, if their 2025 harvest comes in lower than expected. The government said they will initiate “non-tariff” measures if needed. The wheat crop that was planted in the fall faced a dry spell, which could affect the crop when it is harvested this year.

  • FranceAgriMer has released data on French wheat conditions. The soft wheat crop was rated 74% good or very good as of March 3, which is up 1% from the week before. They added that February has been more mild normal.

  • The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has estimated world grain stocks at 869.3 mmt for the 24/25 season, which is up 2.7 mmt from the prior estimate and compares with 885.8 mmt last season. Additionally, they project global wheat production at 796 mmt, which is up 1% year over year because of higher EU production.  

2024 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Head Fake
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range that marked the end of 2024. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rebound.

2024 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Breaks Lower
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rally.

2024 Crop:

  • Upside Target: Looking for a retracement back to 625 vs May to recommend another sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Upside Target: Looking for a retracement back to 647.75 vs September to recommend another sale.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

February Whipsaw
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, sending futures back below key moving averages. Moving forward, the 200-day MA is likely to serve as upside resistance, while previous lows near 580 should provide support.

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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3-06 End of Day: Grain Markets Close Higher on Optimistic Tariff News

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures closed higher today, as optimistic news surrounding tariff negotiations brought buyers into the corn market.

  • Soybeans: Soybean prices ended higher for the second consecutive day, following President Trump’s announcement that tariffs on most goods from China would be lifted for the next four weeks.

  • Wheat: Wheat prices saw an uptick today, driven by positive developments in tariff negotiations between the United States and Mexico.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Catch-Up Opportunities: If you missed some or all of the February sales recommendations, watch for a retracement to 480–490 — approximately a 50%-62% recovery from the drop between the February high of 518.75 and today’s low of 442.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY: Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 420 corn puts for approximately 21 cents, plus commission and fees.

  • Downside Protection: Put options serve as a valuable hedging tool, protecting against further downside price erosion on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest. Combined with the existing call options, this creates a Strangle strategy — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

2026 Crop: 

  • Active Window: The first 2026 upside targets could post at any time — stay tuned for updates!

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Friendly tariff news helped bring buyers into the corn market on Thursday as prices finished with moderately strong gains. It has been a volatile week in the corn market, and the May contract is going into the end of the week still down 5 ½ cents on the week, but 22 cents off the low for the week.

  • President Trump announced that tariffs that were to be placed on goods from Mexico would be delayed until April 2 as negotiations between the US and Mexico have shown progress. Other tariffs that have been placed on Canada and China will remain intact at this point. The announcement provided buying strength on the session as Mexico is the top importer of U.S. corn.

  • The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending February 27, U.S. exporters posted new sales of 909,000 MT (35.8 mb) Total export sales are still trending 26% ahead of last year, but that gap has been narrowing in recent weeks and export sales have slowed with higher corn prices and reduced concern for upcoming South American crops. Sales totals are still trending ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA targets for the marketing year.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index maintains its downward path, trading lower for the 4th consecutive day. The lower U.S. dollar should help improve the competitiveness of U.S. corn on the global market.

  • December ‘25 corn futures are struggling to push through the 450 level. The prospects of increased planted acreage and a possible slower demand tone for the second half of the market year are limiting the strength in new crop corn prices.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market had been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Late in February, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. Support for corn should hold near the 450 area. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to re-own previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were higher to end the day for the second consecutive day and the May contract has gained 36-1/4 cents since Tuesday’s low. In addition, stochastics now shows a crossover buy signal which could trigger further buying. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher as well.

  • The bullish momentum today came from an announcement from President Trump that he would lift tariffs on most goods from China for 4 weeks due to economic fears from a trade war. While this news is fundamentally more friendly for corn, the market reacted positively for soybeans as well.

  • Today’s export sales report was on the low end of trade expectations at 13.0 million bushels for 24/25 and 2.0 mb for 25/26. This was below last week’s and last year’s numbers. Export shipments of 29.1 mb were above the 16.8 mb needed each week. Primary destinations were to China, Germany, and Egypt.

  • Soybean oil exports were supportive today as well and were the largest since the beginning of January at 54,800 metric tons. This report did not include a sale of 60,000 mt of bean oil sales since last Friday, and demand has improved with other veg oils like palm oil at higher prices.

Soybeans Fall on Tariff Worries
Front-month soybean futures continued to test the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has limited gains for over 18 months. Improved weather conditions in South America and newly announced tariffs from the Trump Administration at the start of March triggered a sharp decline in prices. Support is expected around 1000, with stronger backing near recent lows of 950. If prices rebound, initial resistance is likely at 1030, with the 200-day moving average serving as a more significant hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat continued its recovery across all three classes today, with the key headline being President Trump’s announcement that tariffs on certain imports from Mexico would be delayed until early April. This development suggests ongoing cooperation between the U.S. and Mexico, as a recent phone call between the two presidents was described as “constructive”.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 12.4 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 as well as an increase of 2.8 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 14.0 mb fell under the 20.7 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 850 mb. Total wheat sales commitments for 24/25 are up 10% from last year at 746 mb.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index declined early in the day but rebounded by the time the grain markets closed, finishing only slightly negative. The renewed strength in the dollar may help explain why wheat ended the day 10-12 cents off its daily highs.

  • According to the USDA as of March 4, an estimated 24% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions. This is up 2% from the week prior and well above 15% last year. The amount of spring wheat area in drought was held steady with last week, however, at 39%.

  • HB4 wheat, developed by Bioceres Crop Solutions Corporation, is said to have received approval in the U.S. for one of four patents. This bio-engineered variety of wheat is bred to be more tolerant of drought and also allow for better weed management. Furthermore, the technology was already approved by the USDA for farming and by the FDA for feed and food usage.

2024 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Head Fake
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range that marked the end of 2024. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rebound.

2024 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Breaks Lower
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rally.

2024 Crop:

  • Upside Target: Looking for a retracement back to 625 vs May to recommend another sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Upside Target: Looking for a retracement back to 647.75 vs September to recommend another sale.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

February Whipsaw
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, sending futures back below key moving averages. Moving forward, the 200-day MA is likely to serve as upside resistance, while previous lows near 580 should provide support.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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3-05 End of Day: Grain Markets Rebound Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Weaker U.S. Dollar

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures closed mixed, with buying support lifting old crop contracts higher, while new crop contracts finished near unchanged.

  • Soybeans: The entire soybean complex rebounded on Wednesday, erasing Tuesday’s losses in both soybeans and soybean meal, while soybean oil posted a modest gain.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures recovered today as a sharply lower U.S. dollar and reports of a potential delay in tariffs on Mexico and Canada provided support.

  • To see the updated 14-day ECMWF precipitation anomaly for South America as well as the 7-day U.S. precipitation outlooks, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Catch-Up Opportunities: If you missed some or all of the February sales recommendations, watch for a retracement to 480–490 — approximately a 50%-62% recovery from the drop between the February high of 518.75 and today’s low of 442.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY: Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 420 corn puts for approximately 21 cents, plus commission and fees.

  • Downside Protection: Put options serve as a valuable hedging tool, protecting against further downside price erosion on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest. Combined with the existing call options, this creates a Strangle strategy — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

2026 Crop: 

  • Active Window: The first 2026 upside targets could post at any time — stay tuned for updates!

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw mixed trade on Wednesday as some buying strength returned to the old crop side of the corn market. A weaker U.S. dollar, potential front-end demand strength, and some relaxation from tariff fears helped support the grain markets.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index dropped to its lowest level since November, improving U.S. export competitiveness amid trade tariff concerns.

  • Ethanol production hit a record high for this week of the year, averaging 1.093 million barrels per day — up 1.1% from last week and 3.4% year-over-year. Estimated corn usage for ethanol was 110.28 million bushels, staying ahead of USDA targets.

  • Weekly export sales, set for release Thursday, will offer insight into demand trends. Recent sales have remained supportive, though high prices near 500 previously softened demand.

  • The market will be very headline-focused regarding any changes to the current trade policy. The grain markets found some buying today as the “talk” was that President Trump would lighten his stance on Mexico and Canada tariffs.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market had been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Late in February, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. Support for corn should hold near the 450 area. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to re-own previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher in a reversal from yesterday’s trade taking back all of the previous day’s losses. The move comes after President Trump said he would delay the Mexican and Canadian tariffs by another month. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher, but soybean meal posted the larger gains.

  • Volatility has ruled the markets over the past two weeks after President Trump said the tariffs on Mexico and Canada would go into effect yesterday. Earlier today, he walked this back, saying that he will grant a one-month exemption for U.S. automakers from new tariffs on these imports. Trump reportedly had a “friendly” conversation with Canada’s Trudeau.

  • While concerns over Chinese retaliatory tariffs initially pressured the market, their impact on old crop sales is expected to be minimal. Optimism remains for a resolution before new crop sales are affected.

  • China has reportedly increased their grain output target as a result of the potential looming trade war. The country aims to produce 700 million tons of grain in 2025, which compares to 650 million tons the previous year.

Soybeans Fall on Tariff Worries
Front-month soybean futures continued to test the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has limited gains for over 18 months. Improved weather conditions in South America and newly announced tariffs from the Trump Administration at the start of March triggered a sharp decline in prices. Support is expected around 1000, with stronger backing near recent lows of 950. If prices rebound, initial resistance is likely at 1030, with the 200-day moving average serving as a more significant hurdle.

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat rebounded today, with the aid of a sharply lower U.S. dollar and easing of tariff related news. The U.S. commerce secretary issued comments that the tariffs on Mexico and Canada could be pushed back. In addition, it is being reported that Trump will give a one-month exemption for U.S. automakers for new tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada.

  • A major storm system is delivering a mix of rain and snow across the central U.S., providing beneficial moisture for winter wheat as it emerges from dormancy. Warmer March temperatures should further aid crop conditions.

  • Russia’s Agriculture Ministry announced plans to expand the 2025 crop area to 84 million hectares, 1 million more than last year, with 55.8 million hectares allocated to spring crops. Additionally, 87% of winter crops are rated good or satisfactory, up from 82% in January.

  • The European Commission has reported that EU soft wheat exports as of March 2 have reached 13.9 mmt since the season began on July 1. This represents a 37% decline from last year’s 22 mmt shipped in the same timeframe.

2024 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Head Fake
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range that marked the end of 2024. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rebound.

2024 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Breaks Lower
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rally.

2024 Crop:

  • Down Streak Ends: After ten consecutive down days, the May contract finally snapped the streak with an eight-cent recovery today.

  • Guidance Unchanged: Despite today’s bounce, the May contract remains 72 cents below its February high. The guidance remains to sit tight and wait for a stronger recovery before taking next actions.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

February Whipsaw
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, sending futures back below key moving averages. Moving forward, the 200-day MA is likely to serve as upside resistance, while previous lows near 580 should provide support.

Above: From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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3-04 End of Day: Grain Markets Slide Amid Tariff Concerns and Trade Uncertainty

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures ended the day lower as tariff concerns and retaliatory measures weighed on the market. May corn futures are now testing key support near 450.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans extended their losing streak to five consecutive sessions following President Trump’s confirmation that tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China would proceed.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures continued their downward trend today alongside corn and soybeans as concerns over tariffs and a potential trade war weighed on the market.

  • To see the updated 8–14-day precipitation and temperature outlooks for the U.S. as well as the 10-day GEFS precipitation forecast for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Unchanged Guidance: With the severity of this ongoing selloff and three February sales recommendations already in place, Grain Market Insider advises holding off on any additional old crop sales.

  • Catch-Up Opportunities: If you missed some or all of the February sales recommendations, watch for a retracement to 480–490 — approximately a 50%-62% recovery from the drop between the February high of 518.75 and today’s low of 442.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION: Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 420 corn puts for approximately 21 cents, plus commission and fees. These options serve as a valuable hedging tool, protecting against further downside price erosion on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest. Combined with the existing call options, this creates a Strangle strategy — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

2026 Crop: 

  • Active Window: The first 2026 upside targets could post at any time — stay tuned for updates!

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures extended their decline as concerns over tariffs and retaliatory actions fueled additional long liquidation. May corn futures, at their session low, traded 76 cents below the most recent high from February 19.

  • May futures are now testing key support at the 450 level — if this level fails to hold, the market could be vulnerable to a further drop toward the August low of 420, as sellers maintain control.

  • U.S. tariffs of 25% for Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods were triggered last night as the potential for a trade war has increased. China countered with a 15% tariff on U.S. agriculture goods, including U.S. corn imports, and a 10% tariff on soybeans. In addition, China will stop receiving soybeans from three U.S. exporters. Mexico will announce a retaliatory plan on Sunday unless an agreement can be reached.

  • The impact of tariffs could curb demand as U.S. goods become more expensive for affected countries. However, other markets not involved in the tariff dispute may benefit from lower U.S. prices, especially with the U.S. dollar trending downward.

  • The market will be watching to see if demand picks up at these lower price levels. Demand has been the driver in the corn market, and old crop corn supplies remain tight until South American harvest later this spring into early summer.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market had been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Late in February, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. Support for corn should hold near the 450 area. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: Two sales recommendations were issued in January at 1047.50 and 1056.00. With those already in place — and the market down in seven of the last eight trading days — today’s guidance remains the same: hold off on any additional sales for now.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to re-own previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: Grain Market Insider issued its first 2025 crop sales recommendation on January 29 at 1063.50. For now, there are no new recommendations — current guidance is to hold steady.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the fifth consecutive day after President Trump announced that tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China would indeed go through. Funds continued to sell across the ag complex today, bringing May soybean futures to close below $10.00. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.

  • In response to Trump’s announcement to double tariffs on Chinese goods to 20%, China stated it would halt soybean imports from three U.S. entities, suspend lumber imports, and impose a 15% tariff on other U.S. agricultural products.

  • The USDA’s January soybean crush report showed 211.1 million bushels crushed, aligning with trade expectations but down 3% from December’s 217.7 million bushels.

  • StoneX is expected to cut its forecast for Brazilian soybean production, citing weather related issues that could hinder output. They maintain that the South American supplies will overwhelm the global market.

Soybeans Fall on Tariff Worries
Front-month soybean futures continued to test the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has limited gains for over 18 months. Improved weather conditions in South America and newly announced tariffs from the Trump Administration at the start of March triggered a sharp decline in prices. Support is expected around 1000, with stronger backing near recent lows of 950. If prices rebound, initial resistance is likely at 1030, with the 200-day moving average serving as a more significant hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat classes posted losses again today in tandem with corn and soybeans. The continued threat of tariffs and a trade war has pushed ag commodities lower so far this week. Most notably, China has pledged to retaliate with tariffs on US goods, including 15% on wheat imports.

  • Winter wheat crop condition updates showed mixed results across key states. Kansas improved by 4% to 54% good to excellent, while Texas declined by 3% to 34%. Colorado saw a notable 10% improvement, whereas South Dakota conditions fell by 9%.

  • According to Rusagrotrans, Russia’s wheat exports in February totaled 1.9 mmt, which is the lowest figure for that month since 2020. Furthermore, they are estimating March exports will be around 1.5-1.7 mmt, which would be the lowest March export figure since 2021.

  • In Australia, ABARES projected a 25/26 wheat harvest of 30.5 mmt, down 10% from the previous season but still 15% above the 10-year average. They also raised their estimate for the 24/25 harvest by 7% compared to their December report.

2024 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: Grain Market Insider made one old crop sales recommendation in February, selling at 606.50 on February 19. Given the severity of the recent selloff, the guidance is to pause any additional sales for now.

2025 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: Given the severity of the recent selloff, the guidance is to continue to sit tight for now.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Head Fake
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range that marked the end of 2024. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rebound.

2024 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: For now, continue to hold steady—Grain Market Insider has no new actionable recommendations today.

2025 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: For now, continue to hold steady—Grain Market Insider has no new actionable recommendations today.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Breaks Lower
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rally.

2024 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: For now, continue to hold steady—Grain Market Insider has no new actionable recommendations today.

2025 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: For now, continue to hold steady—Grain Market Insider has no new actionable recommendations today.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

February Whipsaw
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, sending futures back below key moving averages. Moving forward, the 200-day MA is likely to serve as upside resistance, while previous lows near 580 should provide support.

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3-03 End of Day: Tariff Concerns Send Grains Lower Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures extended their decline on Monday as ongoing tariff concerns likely fueled continued fund liquidation.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans extended their losing streak to four sessions, breaking below the 100-day moving average. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower, with soybean oil leading the decline.

  • Wheat: Wheat fell to start the week alongside other commodities, weighed down by tariff concerns and lower Matif wheat futures.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the week two GFS precipitation forecast anomaly for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Steps up, Elevator down: The front-month contract climbed from 459.50 on January 2 to a high of 518.75 on February 19 — a steady 32-trading-day ascent. But in just 8 trading days, it tumbled back down to today’s close of 456.25. With such a sharp selloff from the high, the state of the broader uptrend from the August low is now in question.

  • Resistance Concerns: At the start of February, Grain Market Insider flagged the heavy historical resistance clustered between 495–515 and made three sales recommendations on: February 4 at 494.50, February 18 at 512, and February 20 at 512.75.

  • Hold: Given the severity of the recent selloff and the three prior sales recommendations, the guidance remains to hold off on making any additional old crop sales.

2025 Crop: 

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and the recent call option recommendation, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead — especially weather — it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 corn on the upside and $3–$4 corn on the downside.

  • Balanced Approach: Last week’s sales recommendations provide a stronger buffer against downside price scenarios, while the active call options strategy reopens upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market. 

  • Potential Put Options: Tomorrow or Wednesday, Grain Market Insider may recommend adding December ’25 put options. These options can be a valuable hedging tool, helping to protect against further downside price erosion on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest. If put options are recommended, they will combine with the existing call options to form a strategy known as a Strangle — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

2026 Crop: 

  • Active Window: The first 2026 upside targets could post at any time — stay tuned for updates!

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw a fourth day of selling pressure as concerns regarding tariffs and fund liquidation pressured the corn market. The weakness today erased all gains in the corn market for 2025 as the May contract closed at its lowest point since December 26.

  • Managed funds have been aggressively selling their net long positions. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed a reduction of 16,000 net long contracts as of February 25, and estimates suggest an additional 60,000-70,000 contracts have been liquidated since then. The selloff extends beyond grains, affecting the broader agricultural commodity market as funds react to trade uncertainties.

  • The proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports remain scheduled to take effect on March 4. Negotiations between the three countries continue, with the possibility of a resolution. Mexico, the largest buyer of U.S. corn, could retaliate with tariffs or reduce purchases, adding uncertainty to the market.

  • USDA announced a flash export sale of corn this morning. Mexico purchased 114,000MT (4.5 mb) of corn for the current marketing year. This was the first published corn sale since February 14.

  • USDA released weekly export inspections on Monday afternoon. For the week ending February 27, US exporters shipped 1.351 MMT (52.6 mb) of corn. This total was near the top end of market expectations. Mexico was the top importer of U.S. corn during the week. Total shipments have a total of 1.073 bb, up 32% from last year and ahead of the pace to reach the USDA marketing year targets.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market had been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Late in February, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. Trendline support should come in near 470, with stronger support near 450. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 16,079 contracts between February 18 – February 25, bringing their total position to a net long 337,454 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Range Breakout: Since January 13, the front-month continuous contract has traded sideways, mostly between 1066 and 1024. But today’s selloff pushed the May contract well below that 1024 lower boundary, closing at its lowest level since January 9.

  • No New Recommendations: Two sales recommendations were issued back in January at 1047.50 and 1056.00. With those already in place — and the market down in six of the last seven trading days — today’s recommendation is to continue to hold off on making any additional sales.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to reown previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • No New Recommendations: Grain Market Insider issued its first 2025 crop sales recommendation on January 29 at 1063.50. For now, there are no new recommendations — current guidance is to hold steady. 

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the fourth consecutive day in risk-off trade today that saw May futures break significantly below the 100-day moving average. Pressure has come from uncertainty over looming Chinese tariffs and potential retaliation on U.S. agricultural goods. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower, but soybean oil posted the larger losses.

  • President Trump was expected to place 25% tariffs on both Canada and Mexico tomorrow, but he just posted that the tariffs would go into effect on April 2 amid likely ongoing negotiations with the two countries. China, however, is not expected to negotiate and there have been talks that China would place retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods if Trump doubled the Chinese tariffs to 20%.

  • The USDA released the January soybean crush numbers today, which came out to 211.1 million bushels. This was right in line with the average trade estimates but has slowed from December by 3% when crush came in at 217.7 mb.

  • Today’s Export Inspections report saw soybean inspections totaling 25.5 million bushels for the week ending February 27. This was within trade expectations but was below last week’s inspections. Total inspections for 24/25 are now at 1.381 bb, up 10% from the previous year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 8,317 contracts lowering their net long position to 8,209 contracts. They were sellers of both soybean meal and oil by 10,420 and 6,200 contracts respectively.

Soybeans Continue Sideways Grind
Front-month soybean futures continue to flirt with the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A decisive move past this level could trigger bullish momentum, paving the way for a rise toward the key 1100 mark. Should prices dip, reliable support is expected near 1030, with a more stable floor around 1000.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,317 contracts between February 18 – February 25, bringing their total position to a net long 8,209 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar, wheat futures continued to struggle, closing lower alongside most agricultural commodities. A lack of supportive news and a lower close for Matif wheat added pressure. The primary market concern remains the potential for U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada set to take effect tomorrow. Additionally, proposed tariff increases on China have raised fears of retaliatory measures, including reduced U.S. agricultural imports.

  • Weekly wheat inspections of 14.3 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 574 mb, which is up 20% from last year. This is in line with the USDA’s estimated pace; wheat exports for 24/25 are estimated at 850 mb, also up 20% from the year prior.

  • According to India’s meteorological department, much of their nation is expected to see heat waves through May 31. Additionally, it was reported that the month of February was their second warmest since 1901. The threat of above normal temperatures could ultimately reduce their wheat yields.

  • Friday afternoon’s CFTC data indicated that managed funds increased their net short position in Chicago wheat by 10% to 67.6K contracts as of February 25. With the continued downtrend in the market, it is likely that the short position has grown further over the past few sessions.

2024 Crop:

  • 2025 Rally Is Gone: The front-month continuous contract has slipped back into negative territory for the year, closing below the December 31 close of 551.50. Over the last nine trading days, there’s been just one up day.”

  • Hold: Grain Market Insider made one old crop sales recommendation in February, selling at 606.50 on February 19. Given the severity of the recent selloff, the guidance is to pause any additional sales for now.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Head Fake
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range that marked the end of 2024. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rebound.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,037 contracts between February 18 – February 25, bringing their total position to a net short 67,614 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Six Straight Down Days: The front-month contract has closed lower for six consecutive trading days, with just one up day in the last nine. The December 31 close was 559.25, and today’s low saw the May contract trade down to 558.50.

  • No Actionable Recommendations: For now, continue to hold steady — Grain Market Insider has no new actionable recommendations today.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Breaks Lower Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 560, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rally.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 755 contracts between February 18 – February 25, bringing their total position to a net short 21,335 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • 2025 Rally Is Gone: The front-month contract has closed lower for nine straight trading days, slipping into negative territory for the year as May closed below the December 31 mark of 595.75.

  • No Actionable Recommendations: For now, continue to hold steady — Grain Market Insider has no new actionable recommendations today.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

February Whipsaw
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, sending futures back below key moving averages. Moving forward, the 200-day MA is likely to serve as upside resistance, while previous lows near 580 should provide support.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,634 contracts between February 18 – February 25, bringing their total position to a net short 5,209 contracts.

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