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01-23 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans End the Day with Gains

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After a down day for corn yesterday, corn futures rebounded today, closing higher as Argentina crops continue to struggle with dry weather.

  • Soybeans closed higher today driven by higher soybean oil and declining crop conditions in Argentina.

  • As the threat of winterkill diminishes across the U.S. with warming temperatures and the end of the cold snap, wheat prices closed lower for the day.

  • To see the U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Target Range: 495 to 515 for the March ’25 contract.

  • Weekly Close: The March ’25 contract posted a strong weekly close last week, finishing above the May 2024 high of 475.50. This marks the highest close since the week of December 4, 2023.

  • Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, the next resistance range lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • March ’25 Contract Levels: The March ’25 contract has returned to the 487–508 price range, where Grain Market Insider issued its first three sales recommendations for the 2024 corn crop in summer 2023 and spring 2024. To date, four total sales recommendations have been made for the 2024 crop. If you have not yet made all four sales, now is an excellent time to catch up, with prices rebounding to these recommended levels and the market up over 100 cents from the August low on the front-month continuous chart.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • First Resistance: Resistanceremains at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract.

  • Downside Risk: Failure to rally over 459.75 poses the risk of range-bound trading, with the bottom end of the range at 428.00.

  • Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract eventually succeeds in rallying above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.

  • Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 4–6 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market rejected yesterday’s turn lower in prices to push to new highs for the move during Thursday’s session. March corn futures is trading 5 ½ cents higher on the week going into Friday’s trade, closing today at its highest price point since late May.

  • Argentina’s crops continue to struggle with dry weather, and longer-range forecasts indicate slightly below-normal precipitation in the 10-15 day outlook. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its corn crop ratings to 80% in the normal/excellent category, while 20% of the crop is now rated poor, up 6% from last week.

  • Weekly ethanol production recovered a little last week to 323 million gallons/day. There was 111 mil. bu. used last week in ethanol production which is still trending ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA target.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Friday morning. Expectations are for new sales to be 700,000-1.7 MMT. Last week’s sales were just over 1.0 MMT.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 470, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Larger overhead resistance now comes in just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract advanced further into the 1060–1080 target range, hitting an intraday high of 1073.50 today. However, the early gains couldn’t hold, and March closed below the 1/14 high of 1064. Out of the three trading days within this range, two have shown bearish reversals, closing back under 1060. This reinforces the strength of the 1060–1080 range as a significant resistance area, which played a key role in today’s sales recommendation.

  • From the Lows: The March ‘25 contract remains up over one dollar from its December low of 947.00, marking this as a solid rally worth capitalizing on.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have covered a significant number of short positions and are now net-long soybeans, further supporting the idea that now is an ideal time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher, taking back nearly all of yesterday’s losses. While trade was higher, the March contract failed at the 200-day moving average at $10.76 and retreated nearly 10 cents. Today’s move was mostly driven by higher soybean oil despite concerns over the 45z tax credit while soybean meal was mixed with lower prices in the front months and higher in the deferred.

  • Despite Argentinian weather improving over the past few days, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange released its weekly crop update that estimated a decline in normal to excellent conditions by 7% to 72%. At this time last year, 92% of the crop was rated normal to excellent, and the 5-year average is 81%.

  • Yesterday, soybean futures were driven lower by soybean oil after President Trump signed an executive order for a regulatory freeze for new policy which included the 45z tax credit proposal. There have been concerns that the 45z credit may not go through.

  • President Trump has indicated that tariffs were coming for Canada and Mexico on February 1, and today it was reported that a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports would be put in place on the 1st as well. While this was expected, the Chinese stock market fell, and exports of soybeans could be affected.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • With the exception of the May Chicago contract, wheat futures closed neutral to lower today. As warmer temperatures are expected in the central U.S., the threat of winterkill is diminishing, which is contributing to the decline in prices.

  • A French dock worker’s union has initiated port strikes, including at the largest grain terminals. The strikes are set to occur on 13 days from January 23 to February 28, with each lasting four hours. Additionally, work will be halted for 48 hours on January 30 and 31. The strikes are reportedly driven by several issues, including pension reform, and could impact the flow of grains.

  • From a technical perspective, Kansas City futures appear to have run into resistance around the 100-day moving average. The March contract did break above this level yesterday but has closed below it for the second day in a row. As of today’s close, the 100-day MA sits at 576-3/4.

  • Japan is reported to have made a 127,000 mt purchase of wheat, with 15,000 mt of that being U.S. HRW, and 16,000 mt being U.S. white wheat. The rest was sourced from Australia and Canada.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: Grain Market Insider continues to target 680–705 vs. March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Three sales recommendations have been made so far for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two previous recommendations. If you are behind on sales, this range offers a good opportunity to make a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The next target range for a sale is 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has taken a slightly more aggressive approach with sales for the 2025 crop, leveraging market carry during the overall downtrend from the October high. The average price of the four sales made so far vs. July ’25 is approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would increase that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider has recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • Next Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop is 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: The growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to the July ’25 contract make the July ’26 contract an early opportunity to monitor closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: 650 – 700 vs. March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued only two sales recommendations to date, reflecting the significant yield uncertainty before last year’s harvest and the limited post-harvest sales opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged approximately 719 vs. the July ’24 futures. A sale at the next target range will reduce the average, but upside expectations remain tempered for now

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 640 – 665 range vs. July ‘25 to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Target Range: A rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25 is the initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop. However, the near-record short position held by Funds suggests that this target range could adjust higher as future price action unfolds.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 700 – 750 is the target range vs September ‘25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above two: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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01-22 End of Day: Corn Retreats from Multi-Month Highs

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market retreated from multi-month highs today, pressured by technical overbought conditions.

  • Soybean futures closed lower as an improved weather outlook for South America eased concerns about crop stress.

  • Wheat futures ended in the red, with Chicago leading the losses. Weakness in corn and soybeans spilled over into wheat, amplifying the selloff.

  • To see the 30-day percent of normal rainfall map for South America as well as the U.S. seasonal drought outlook, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Target Range: 495 to 515 for the March ’25 contract.

  • Weekly Close: The March ’25 contract posted a strong weekly close last week, finishing above the May 2024 high of 475.50. This marks the highest close since the week of December 4, 2023.

  • Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, the next resistance range lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • March ’25 Contract Levels: The March ’25 contract has returned to the 487–508 price range, where Grain Market Insider issued its first three sales recommendations for the 2024 corn crop in summer 2023 and spring 2024. To date, four total sales recommendations have been made for the 2024 crop. If you have not yet made all four sales, now is an excellent time to catch up, with prices rebounding to these recommended levels and the market up over 100 cents from the August low on the front-month continuous chart.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • First Resistance: Resistanceremains at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract.

  • Downside Risk: Failure to rally over 459.75 poses the risk of range-bound trading, with the bottom end of the range at 428.00.

  • Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract eventually succeeds in rallying above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.

  • Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 4–6 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices finished the day lower after making 8-month highs early on. Improved weather patterns in South America weighed on the market, contributing to the late-session pullback.

  • The USDA announced a private export sale of 136,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations for 2024/25 delivery. While this news supported prices early in the session, the market ultimately faded by the close.

  • S&P global raised their 2025 corn acre forecast to 93.5 mmt. This is up 700,000 acres from their forecast in December and nearly 3 million acres more than 2024.

  • The corn market treads in overbought territory with funds now estimated to be long over 320,000 contracts. Many feel it would take worsening conditions in South America to sustain rallies above the $5.00 level.

  • Weekly ethanol production data has been delayed until Thursday morning due to Monday’s holiday.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 470, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Larger overhead resistance now comes in just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract advanced further into the 1060–1080 target range, hitting an intraday high of 1073.50 today. However, the early gains couldn’t hold, and March closed below the 1/14 high of 1064. Out of the three trading days within this range, two have shown bearish reversals, closing back under 1060. This reinforces the strength of the 1060–1080 range as a significant resistance area, which played a key role in today’s sales recommendation.

  • From the Lows: At Tuesday’s close of 1067.25, the contract stood over one dollar above its December low of 947.00, marking a solid rally worth capitalizing on.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have covered a significant number of short positions and are now net-long soybeans, further supporting the idea that now is an ideal time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower, taking back a portion of yesterday’s impressive gains. Yesterday’s rally was fueled by a sharp drop in the dollar, wet Brazilian harvest conditions, and an issue with grain shipments from Brazil to China. Today was likely a technical pullback that was accelerated by lower soybean oil while soybean meal ended higher.

  • Yesterday, it was reported that Brazilian shipments of soybeans were suspended by China after 5 different Chinese firms found that the shipments did not meet phytosanitary requirements. There were concerns after some cargoes were found with chemical contamination, pests, or insects.

  • President Trump has indicated that tariffs were coming for Canada and Mexico on February 1, and today it was reported that a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports would be put in place on the 1st as well. While this was expected, the Chinese stock market fell, and exports of soybeans could be affected due to retaliations.

  • Weather in South America remains mixed: Argentina continues to see necessary rain, while persistent rainfall in Brazil is delaying the harvest and raising potential quality concerns. Brazilian soybeans were planted late, however, so a later harvest would be expected.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat joined corn and soybeans in posting losses, with the Chicago contract leading the decline. Factors contributing to the weaker trade included profit-taking, a lower close for Matif wheat, and uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs and sanctions.

  • S&P Global increased their 2025 total acreage forecast by 1.1 million to 47.1 million acres. Their winter wheat projection in particular stands at 34.115 million acres, which is in line with the most recent USDA estimate.

  • SovEcon left their estimate of 2025 Russian wheat production steady at 78.7 mmt, which would be the lowest since 2021. With that said, if a significant cold spell occurs, minimal snow cover means that winterkill could be an issue that reduces overall production.

  • According to the GASC vice chairman, Egypt intends to import between 5-6 mmt of wheat during the 24/25 season for their subsidized bread program. Total season imports are anticipated at 12.5 mmt; Egypt is one of the top global importers of wheat.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: Grain Market Insider continues to target 680–705 vs. March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Three sales recommendations have been made so far for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two previous recommendations. If you are behind on sales, this range offers a good opportunity to make a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The next target range for a sale is 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has taken a slightly more aggressive approach with sales for the 2025 crop, leveraging market carry during the overall downtrend from the October high. The average price of the four sales made so far vs. July ’25 is approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would increase that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider has recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • Next Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop is 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: The growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to the July ’25 contract make the July ’26 contract an early opportunity to monitor closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: 650 – 700 vs. March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued only two sales recommendations to date, reflecting the significant yield uncertainty before last year’s harvest and the limited post-harvest sales opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged approximately 719 vs. the July ’24 futures. A sale at the next target range will reduce the average, but upside expectations remain tempered for now

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 640 – 665 range vs. July ‘25 to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Target Range: A rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25 is the initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop. However, the near-record short position held by Funds suggests that this target range could adjust higher as future price action unfolds.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 700 – 750 is the target range vs September ‘25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

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01-21 End of Day: Soybeans Lead Grains Higher Tuesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Strong weekly export inspections helped to push corn higher to start the week as July futures edged over the $5 level.

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher, taking out last week’s high. South American weather worries drove soybean meal futures over 4.6% higher while soybean oil closed slightly higher.

  • A sharp drop in the US Dollar Index and the ongoing cold snap with minimal snow cover for the Plains sent wheat futures sharply higher to start the week.

  • To see the one-week GFS precipitation forecast for South America and the 8–14 day US temperature outlook both courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Target Range: 495 to 515 for the March ’25 contract.

  • Weekly Close: The March ’25 contract posted a strong weekly close, finishing above the May 2024 high of 475.50. This marks the highest close since the week of December 4, 2023.

  • Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, the next resistance range lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • March ’25 Contract Levels: The March ’25 contract has nearly returned to the price range of 487 to 508 (vs. December ’24), where Grain Market Insider recommended the first 2024 corn crop sales during the summer of 2023 and spring of 2024.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • First Resistance: Resistanceremains at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract.

  • Downside Risk: Failure to rally over 459.75 poses the risk of range-bound trading, with the bottom end of the range at 428.00.

  • Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract eventually succeeds in rallying above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.

  • Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 4–6 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices ended the trading day higher, driven by growing concerns over the heat and dry weather in South America and tariff delays.

  • Recent rainfall in Argentina’s primary growing region has not alleviated concerns about the ongoing drought, which threatens to harm yields. After nearly a month-long drought and recent heatwaves in the area, some analysts argue that the rain arrived too late to reverse the damage caused by the drought. Last week, the 24/25 corn crop was cut to 48 mmt (1.89 bb) by the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange, due to adverse weather conditions, this is down from the 50 mmt it previously estimated.

  • Weekly export inspections for corn totaled 61 mb, surpassing the 51 mb needed to meet the USDA’s forecast of 2.450 bb. Year-to-date, corn exports stand at 758 mb, up 31% from the same period last year. The top destinations were Japan with 18 mb, Mexico with 13 mb, and South Korea with 11 mb.

  • AgRural estimates that Brazil’s second corn crop is less than 1% planted, a significant decrease from the 5% average for this time of year.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 470, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Larger overhead resistance now comes in just below 500.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 38,882 contracts between January 7 – January 14, bringing their total position to a net long 292,228 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract entered the 1060–1080 target range again on Tuesday (1/21), reaching an intraday high of 1068.

  • From the Lows: At Tuesday’s close of 1067.25, the contract stood over one dollar above its December low of 947.00, marking a solid rally worth capitalizing on.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have covered a significant number of short positions and are now net-long soybeans, further supporting the idea that now is an ideal time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher, taking out the recent high from the 14th in the March contract. The dollar was significantly lower which supported all of the grains today, but rain that is delaying the Brazilian harvest was supportive as well. Soybean meal led the complex higher with a gain of $13.80 in March, while bean oil was only slightly higher.

  • Weather in South America remains mixed: Argentina saw weekend rain, while persistent rainfall in Brazil is delaying the harvest and raising potential quality concerns.

  • With President Trump officially in office, trade was likely expecting tariffs to be ordered yesterday along with the slew of executive orders. While that was not completed yesterday, it is expected to go into effect on February 1 which could pressure markets.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans by 63,445 contracts, which left them with a net long position of 34,833 contracts. Funds are nowhere near record long and have the ability to continue buying if weather remains a concern.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 63,445 contracts between January 7 – January 14, bringing their total position to a net long 34,833 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed higher, led by Kansas City futures. A cold snap in the central U.S., minimal snow cover, a weaker U.S. dollar, and fund short-covering boosted prices.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 9.6 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 488 mb, which is up 24% from last year. Inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace; exports are estimated at 850 mb for 24/25, which would be up 20% from the year prior.

  • According to Chinese customs data, December wheat imports totaled 150,000 metric tons, down 74.5% year-over-year. Year-to-date imports of 11.18 million metric tons are down 7.6% from last year.

  • Russia exported $87.3 million in wheat to China in 2024, a 2.5x increase from 2023’s $34.7 million. Australia remained the top supplier with $1.08 billion in exports.

  • The new military-run state buyer for Egypt is rumored to have purchased a significant volume of wheat directly from Russia. While this has not yet been confirmed, there is also talk that four Egyptian ships have been sent to Russia for loading, with a combined capacity of 250,000 mt.

2024 Crop:

  • Target 680 – 705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 Chi wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 Chi wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing.

2026 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • With daily trading volume in the July ‘26 contract increasing to start the New Year, and nearly 90 cents of carry between the March ‘25 and July ‘26 contracts, we recommend making your first sale for the crop you’ll plant this fall.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,756 contracts between January 7 – January 14, bringing their total position to a net short 94,393 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 650 – 700 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,748 contracts between January 7 – January 14, bringing their total position to a net short 37,606 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Potentially targeting a rally to the 610–635 range versus March ’25 for additional sales of your 2024 crop. While this is the initial area of interest, the near-record short position held by the Funds suggests that this target range could shift as future price action develops.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,087contracts between January 7 – January 14, bringing their total position to a net short 28,298 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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1-17 End of Day: Corn Market Leads Grains Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, January 20, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr Day.

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn closed above the May 2024 high of 475.50 on the front-month continuous chart, reaching its highest level since early December 2023.

  • Soybeans ended a three-day losing streak with a double-digit rebound, supported by easing trade war concerns following reports of positive phone discussions between President-elect Trump and Chinese President Xi.

  • Wheat markets continue to struggle, managing only meager gains of one to two cents as bullish drivers remain nowhere to be found.

  • To see the U.S. 6 to 10-day precipitation and temperature outlook courtesy of NOAA Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Target Range: 495 to 515 for the March ’25 contract.

  • Weekly Close: The March ’25 contract posted a strong weekly close, finishing above the May 2024 high of 475.50. This marks the highest close since the week of December 4, 2023.

  • Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, the next resistance range lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • March ’25 Contract Levels: The March ’25 contract has nearly returned to the price range of 487 to 508 (vs. December ’24), where Grain Market Insider recommended the first 2024 corn crop sales during the summer of 2023 and spring of 2024.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • First Resistance: Resistanceremains at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract.

  • Downside Risk: Failure to rally over 459.75 poses the risk of range-bound trading, with the bottom end of the range at 428.00.

  • Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract eventually succeeds in rallying above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.

  • Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 4–6 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market closed the week with strong gains as buyers returned. Concerns over Argentina’s weather and a technical breakout helped drive money flow into the front-end of the market.

  • Wet weather is expected to return to Argentina’s dry areas, but long-range forecasts turn drier by Friday. These concerns reintroduced weather premiums into the market.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated the corn crop at 39% good-to-excellent, down from 42% last week, with 14% rated poor, up from 9%. Adverse weather continues to pressure crop conditions.

  • Corn futures saw significant technical improvement, breaking through resistance from earlier price highs. This sets the stage for potential follow-through when trading resumes next week.

  • Managed funds are steadily amassing a substantial long position in the corn market. As of January 7, hedge funds held a net long of 253,346 contracts, with expectations for further growth following last Friday’s bullish USDA report.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 470, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Larger overhead resistance now comes in just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract entered the 1060–1080 target range on Tuesday, reaching an intraday high of 1064.

  • From the Lows: At Tuesday’s close of 1047.50, the contract stood one dollar above its December low of 947.00, marking a solid rally worth capitalizing on.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have covered a significant number of short positions and are nearing a net-neutral stance, further supporting the idea that now is an ideal time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly higher, breaking three days of consecutively lower closes and gaining back nearly all of yesterday’s losses. New weather forecasts today saw a drier pattern in Argentina and southern Brazil which spurred fund buying. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher as well.

  • Estimates for Brazilian soybean production has been increased by Agroconsult to 172.4 mmt which would be an 11% increase from last season. This compares with the USDA at 169 mmt and CONAB at 166 mmt.

  • While yesterday’s export sales for soybeans were within the average trade guess, some Chinese buyers have reportedly switched to cheaper Brazilian soybeans ahead of President Trump’s inauguration on Monday. With the sharp increase in the value of the dollar over the past few months combined with the weakened real, Brazilian soy offers are much more competitive.

  • While Argentina’s dry streak is expected to be broken within the next few days, some damage has already been to the crop with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowering good to excellent ratings by 13 points. Only 8% of the crop is pod filling at this point.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite the strength of corn and soybeans today, not much of it spilled over into wheat. Chicago contracts gained about a penny, while Kansas City was mixed to lower, and Minneapolis posted small gains. The US Dollar Index was on the rise again today, adding to pressure.

  • Also offering weakness to the US wheat market are the new crop supplies coming out of Argentina and Australia, which are both said to be cheaper than US offers. Thailand reportedly purchased 195,000 mt of feed wheat with most of that coming from Australia and a little bit from the US. Furthermore, Russian FOB values are said to have declined as well.

  • On a bullish note, Russia’s cap to wheat exports has led SovEcon to project Russian exports at 43.7 mmt, falling below the USDA’s estimate of 46 mmt. In related news, Russia’s ag ministry is said to have raised the wheat export tax by 10.7% to 4,699.60 Rubles per mt through January 27.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat harvest is 100% complete as of January 16. Their production estimate remains steady at 18.6 mmt, compared with a 15.1 mmt crop last year.

  • The International Grains Council has reduced their estimate of world grain stockpiles for the 24/25 season to 573 mmt. This compares to 576 mmt in the November estimate. However, this reduction is primarily for corn and barley. In fact, wheat stocks are expected to increase to 265 mmt vs 263 mmt previously.

2024 Crop:

  • Target 680 – 705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 Chi wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 Chi wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell the first portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • With daily trading volume in the July ‘26 contract increasing to start the New Year, and nearly 90 cents of carry between the March ‘25 and July ‘26 contracts, we recommend making your first sale for the crop you’ll plant this fall.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 650 – 700 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

2024 Crop:

  • Potentially targeting a rally to the 610–635 range versus March ’25 for additional sales of your 2024 crop. While this is the initial area of interest, the near-record short position held by the Funds suggests that this target range could shift as future price action develops.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 6 to 10-day precipitation outlook courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

Above: US 6 to 10-day temperature outlook courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

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1-16 End of Day: Grain Markets Close Red

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, January 20, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr Day.

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures finished lower as South American weather conditions improved, and Canada proposed a counter tariff.

  • Soybeans closed lower for the third consecutive day, pressured by overbought conditions and improving weather forecasts in South America.

  • Wheat followed the trend of other grain markets today, closing lower across all three wheat classes.

  • To see the U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.  

  • With March futures knocking on the door of their highest level since May 2024 and continuous corn up roughly 25% from the pre-harvest low in August, it is time to reward this rally.

2025 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • The December ’25 corn contract attempted to re-enter the 455–475 target range, reaching a high of 456.75 today but was subsequently rejected.

  • This marks the fourth consecutive day the contract has approached within three cents or less of the October high of 459.75 without breaking through. This area is proving to be a strong resistance level.

  • First support remains at the November low of 428.00. If the contract fails to break above 459.75, range-bound trading is likely to continue, with a potential retest of the lower end of the range.

  • If the December ’25 contract breaks above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential sales recommendation.

  • Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance. This strategy would protect current sales while allowing you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished moderately lower on Thursday, with overall grain market weakness prompting some long liquidation. An improved weather forecast for South America, along with Canada’s proposal for a counter tariff, likely contributed to the selling pressure in corn. For the week, March corn futures are trading 4 cents higher heading into Friday’s session.

  • The USDA released weekly exports sales on Thursday morning.  For the week ending January 9, U.S. exporters posted new sales of 1.024 MMT (40.3 mb) for the current marketing year. Total sales commitments for the marketing year are at 1.585 bb, which is up 28% over last year and ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA exports target.

  • Forecasts have shifted to a wetter outlook for the dry areas in Brazil and Argentina, helping to alleviate crop stress caused by hot and dry conditions. Additionally, the wetter regions in Brazil are expected to dry out, which will allow for the harvest and planting of the second crop of corn to gain momentum.

  • The Canadian government proposed a counter tariff plan on U.S. imports totaling $105 billion dollars.  One item that may be impacted could be U.S. ethanol imports, which approximately 35% of U.S. exported ethanol goes to Canada.

  • Corn futures may face pressure from technical trading in the near term. The corn market is currently in an overbought condition, with managed hedge funds estimated to hold a near-record net long position. Additional selling pressure could weigh on the market heading into the 3-day weekend on Friday.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 460, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 480 with larger resistance just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • The March ’25 contract reached the 1060–1080 target range Tuesday, with an intraday high of 1064.

  • At Tuesday’s close of 1047.50, the contract stands one dollar above its December low of 947.00.

  • With Funds covering a significant number of short positions and nearing a net-neutral stance, now is an opportune time to capitalize on the rally. 

2025 Crop:

  • The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. No sales recommendations are planned until at least the peak of the U.S. growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower, marking a third consecutive decline and pushing the March contract back below the 100-day moving average. The selloff was likely driven by overbought conditions leading funds to take profit, as well as favorable weather conditions in South America. Both soybean meal and oil also saw lower prices.

  • Today’s export sales report saw an increase of soybean sales of 20.9 million bushels for 24/25, which was in line with the average analyst estimate. Sales were down 27% from the prior 4-week average. Primary destinations were to China, Bangladesh, and Mexico. Last week’s export shipments of 54.2 mb were above the 21.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

  • Yesterday’s NOPA crush report for December saw soybean crush at 206.60 million bushels, setting a record for the month as several new processing facilities have begun operations. This exceeded the average trade estimate of 203 million bushels.

  • While Argentina’s dry streak is expected to be broken within the next few days, some damage has already been to the crop with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowering good to excellent ratings by 13 points. Only 8% of the crop is pod filling at this point.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three classes of wheat experienced selling pressure on Thursday, following the trend of other grain markets and failing to hold recent gains. The weak price action and disappointing technical close may leave wheat prices susceptible to further selling pressure as the week comes to a close.

  • USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning.  For the week ending January 9, U.S. exporters posted new sales of 513,400 MT (18.9 mb) for the current marketing year.  South Korea was the largest buyer of U.S. wheat for that time period.  Total export commitments are at 644 mb, up 9% from last year, but behind the pace to reach USDA export targets.

  • The International Grains Council (IGC) left its world wheat production forecast at 796 million tons.  The IGC lowered their Russia crop forecast but balanced that total with a forecasted strong Australian crop.  For 2025-26 growing season, the IGC sees wheat production rising to a possible record of 805 million tons, up 1% year-on-year.

  • Consultancy Strategie Grains raised its 2025-26 soft wheat production forecast for the European Union, citing higher-than-expected plantings in Germany. The firm now projects the 2025 EU wheat crop at 127.2 MMT, up 600,000 MT from its initial forecast and 13 MMT above last year.

2024 Crop:

  • Target 680 – 705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 Chi wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 Chi wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell the first portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • With daily trading volume in the July ‘26 contract increasing to start the New Year, and nearly 90 cents of carry between the March ‘25 and July ‘26 contracts, we recommend making your first sale for the crop you’ll plant this fall.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 650 – 700 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

2024 Crop:

  • Potentially targeting a rally to the 610–635 range versus March ’25 for additional sales of your 2024 crop. While this is the initial area of interest, the near-record short position held by the Funds suggests that this target range could shift as future price action develops.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

Above two: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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1-15 End of Day: Soybeans Fall, Corn Battles Back on Wednesday

ByLisa Heder

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Firm crude oil prices and strong ethanol production supported corn futures, pushing prices back near recent highs.

  • Soybean futures closed lower as poor technical signals weighed on the market, despite record December soybean crush figures reported by NOPA.

  • Wheat futures posted a mixed close for the second straight session, with lower Paris milling wheat futures adding pressure to U.S. wheat markets.

  • To see the 8-week U.S. drought monitor class change as well as the 30-day percent of normal precipitation map for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.  

  • With March futures knocking on the door of their highest level since May 2024 and continuous corn up roughly 25% from the pre-harvest low in August, it is time to reward this rally.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • The December ’25 corn contract has entered the target range of 455–475. 

  • First resistance is just under 3 cents away at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract. 

  • If the December ’25 contract breaks above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential sales recommendation. 

  • Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025. 

  • Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance. This strategy would protect current sales while allowing you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures bucked the broader grain market trend on Wednesday, closing with small gains. A strong crude oil market provided support to corn as prices consolidated near the recent rally’s highs.

  • Ethanol production declined for the second consecutive week, dropping to 322 million gallons/day, though still 3.9% higher year-over-year. Last week, 111 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol production, remaining ahead of the pace required to meet USDA targets for the marketing year.

  • Despite the market strength, average cash basis levels continue to slip in the U.S., impacting the cash market in some areas as producers have been moving bushels into the pipeline on this recent rally.

  • Managed hedge funds added to their length in the corn market on last week’s Commitment of trader’s report.  Funds were a net long approximately 253,000 contracts as of Jan 7. Estimates have the funds holding a net long of 280,000-300,000 contracts going into today’s trade. If realized, this would be the largest net long position since 2022 for this time frame.

  • Crude oil prices surged above $80 per barrel for the first time since sanctions on Russian oil tightened supply. The rally in crude has supported the corn market and other commodities.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 460, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 480 with larger resistance just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • The March ’25 contract reached the 1060–1080 target range Tuesday, with an intraday high of 1064.

  • At Tuesday’s close of 1047.50, the contract stands one dollar above its December low of 947.00.

  • With Funds covering a significant number of short positions and nearing a net-neutral stance, now is an opportune time to capitalize on the rally. 

2025 Crop:

  • The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. No sales recommendations are planned until at least the peak of the U.S. growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower today, extending losses from yesterday as the March contract marked a lower high and lower low. Early gains in soybean oil, driven by bullish biofuel sentiment, provided support, but prices ultimately faded for a modestly higher close, while soybean meal ended the session in the red. Losses in soybeans were concentrated in deferred contracts.

  • NOPA reported December soybean crush at 206.60 million bushels, setting a new record for the month as several new processing facilities have begun operations. This exceeded the average trade estimate of 203 million bushels.

  • Yesterday, CONAB raised its soybean production forecast for the current crop year to 166.33 MMT, up slightly from last month.  Most analyst have the Brazil soybean crop above 170 MMT for their estimates as the weather continues to be favorable in the country.

  • In Argentina, drier weather persists, and temperatures are expected to heat up over the next two days before rains are expected to fall and provide relief to the soybean crop. Significant rainfall has not fallen in the country since the end of December.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures ended with a mixed close across all three classes. Pressure came from a gap lower and weaker finish in Paris milling wheat futures. However, a slide in the US Dollar Index helped ease some of the selling pressure in the US wheat market.

  • Drought conditions are expected to expand in the short term across the US southern plains, though longer-range weather models point to increased precipitation for the region in the coming weeks.

  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports have reached 11.5 mmt since the season began on July 1. This represents a 35% drop from the 17.6 mmt shipped for the same timeframe last year.

  • Russia’s Deputy Ag Minister has said that due to a smaller harvest, Russia’s wheat exports this year are expected below the record amount shipped in 2024. However, wheat exports in 2025 may be higher than average as a share of total grain exports – this is as a result of export restrictions on corn, barley, and rye in the February to June timeframe.

2024 Crop:

  • Target 680 – 705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 Chi wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 Chi wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell the first portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • With daily trading volume in the July ‘26 contract increasing to start the New Year, and nearly 90 cents of carry between the March ‘25 and July ‘26 contracts, we recommend making your first sale for the crop you’ll plant this fall.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 650 – 700 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

2024 Crop:

  • Potentially targeting a rally to the 610–635 range versus March ’25 for additional sales of your 2024 crop. While this is the initial area of interest, the near-record short position held by the Funds suggests that this target range could shift as future price action develops.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Map from NDMC at Univeristy of Nebreaska, description and drawing courtesy of Conduit Weather.

South America 30-day precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center.

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1-14 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures tested upside resistance during Tuesday’s session but ultimately closed lower as buying momentum eased.

  • After a more than 50-cent higher move in just two sessions, soybean futures corrected lower on Tuesday.

  • Wheat futures ended mixed, with Chicago wheat managing slight gains, while Kansas City and spring wheat futures dipped into negative territory.

  • See the updated GRACE-based shallow ground water drought indicator for the U.S. as well as the week two precipitation anomaly forecast for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.  

  • With March futures knocking on the door of their highest level since May 2024 and continuous corn up roughly 25% from the pre-harvest low in August, it is time to reward this rally.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • The December ’25 corn contract has entered the target range of 455–475. 

  • First resistance is just under 3 cents away at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract. 

  • If the December ’25 contract breaks above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential sales recommendation. 

  • Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025. 

  • Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance. This strategy would protect current sales while allowing you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures lost momentum on Tuesday, retreating from their highest levels since June 2024. Producer selling and weakness in other markets likely limited the upside. With the turn lower, the corn market posted a bearish hook reversal on the daily charts, which could lead to additional selling pressure of this weak technical signal.

  • Managed hedge funds added to their length in the corn market on last week’s Commitment of trader’s report.  Funds were a net long approximately 253,000 contracts as of Jan 7. Estimates have the funds holding a net long of 280,000-300,000 contracts going into today’s trade. If realized, this would be the largest net long position since 2022 for this time frame.

  • Crude oil prices faced selling pressure on Tuesday after reaching $79 per barrel early in the session — the highest price since July. This weakness likely weighed on the corn and soybean markets.

  • In the cash market, basis levels have widened as producer selling has ramped up in response to recent price increases. While futures have rallied strongly since the USDA report, the cash market in some areas has not fully mirrored these gains.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 460, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 475 with larger resistance just below 500.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Jan 7. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 24,540 contracts between Dec. 31–  Jan 7, bringing their total position to a net long 253,346 contracts. 

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • The March ’25 contract reached the 1060–1080 target range today, with an intraday high of 1064.

  • At today’s close of 1047.50, the contract stands one dollar above its December low of 947.00.

  • With Funds covering a significant number of short positions and nearing a net-neutral stance, now is an opportune time to capitalize on the rally.  

2025 Crop:

  • The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. No sales recommendations are planned until at least the peak of the U.S. growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ultimately ended the day with a lower close but briefly traded as much as 10 cents higher this morning before fading. The fundamentals are bullish overall with a dry Argentine forecast and a lower national US soybean yield, but fund profit taking and farmer selling may have added pressure today.

  • Soybean meal finished higher, while soybean oil declined slightly. However, soybean oil has rallied sharply this year due to the potential removal of foreign-used cooking oil from renewable diesel production, which would boost demand. The Biden administration’s progress on the 45Z tax credit could further support soybean oil, though uncertainties remain regarding qualification criteria.

  • Yesterday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of 13,835 contracts of soybeans as of January 7 which reduced their net short position to 28,612 contracts. Funds are estimated to have bought back over 27,000 contracts in just the last two days, which would likely establish them with a new net long position.

  • The USDA initially announced a 198,000 MT soybean sale to China, which was later corrected to a corn sale. Near-term soybean demand concerns persist, as Brazilian export prices range $0.90 to $1.20 per bushel below U.S. soybeans.

  • CONAB raised its soybean production forecast for the current crop year to 166.33 MMT, up slightly from last month.  Most analyst have the Brazil soybean crop above 170 MMT for their estimates.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Jan 7. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 13,835 contracts between Dec. 31 – Jan 7, bringing their total position to a net short 28,612 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed mixed, with Chicago posting modest gains, while Kansas City and Minneapolis saw neutral to slight losses. Wheat’s resilience, despite weaker corn and soybean markets, can be attributed to a sharply lower US Dollar Index.

  • According to CFTC data, managed funds were net sellers of around 1,900 Chicago and 2,200 Minneapolis wheat contracts. However, they were net buyers of around 2,000 Kansas City contracts. The combined net short position for all three classes sits at nearly 150,000 contracts, compared to the record short of over 198,000 contracts in December 2023.

  • The Russian Grain Union reported total grain exports of 34.3 mmt from July to December 2024, a 5.4% decline from the same period a year earlier. However, wheat exports increased slightly by 0.7% to 30 mmt.

  • According to Secex, Brazil imported 520.9 mmt of wheat in December, bringing 2024 total imports to 6.65 mmt, significantly surpassing 2023 imports of 4.18 mmt. December imports were the highest for any month since 2019, and 2024 marked the largest annual total since 2018.

2024 Crop:

  • Target 680 – 705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 Chi wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 Chi wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell the first portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • With daily trading volume in the July ‘26 contract increasing to start the New Year, and nearly 90 cents of carry between the March ‘25 and July ‘26 contracts, we recommend making your first sale for the crop you’ll plant this fall.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Jan 7. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,875 contracts between Dec 31 – Jan 7, bringing their total position to a net short 88,637 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 650 – 700 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Jan 7. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,003 contracts between Dec. 31 – Jan 7, bringing their total position to a net short 31,858 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Potentially targeting a rally to the 610–635 range versus March ’25 for additional sales of your 2024 crop. While this is the initial area of interest, the near-record short position held by the Funds suggests that this target range could shift as future price action develops.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Jan 7. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,242 contracts between Dec. 31 – Jan 7, bringing their total position to a net short 29,385 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil week two-forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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1-13 End of Day: Grains Start the Week Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures continued their march higher on Monday, building on momentum from Friday’s bullish USDA report.

  • Soybean and soybean meal futures opened the week with sharp gains as weekend forecasts for Argentina turned warmer and drier, raising concerns about crop stress. Soybean oil also rallied, adding strength to the complex.

  • Wheat futures closed higher across all classes on Monday despite the U.S. Dollar hitting another near-term high. Spillover strength from surging corn and soybean markets provided key support for the wheat rally.

  • See the 7-day GEFS accumulated precipitation anomaly as well as the GRACE-based shallow ground water drought indicator for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • With March futures knocking on the door of their highest level since May 2024 and continuous corn up roughly 25% from the pre-harvest low in August, it is time to reward this rally.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • The December ’25 corn contract has entered the target range of 455–475.

  • First resistance is just under 3 cents away at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract.

  • If the December ’25 contract breaks above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential sales recommendation.

  • Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance. This strategy would protect current sales while allowing you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures extended gains following Friday’s bullish USDA report. Support from strong buying in both soybean and wheat markets pushed corn prices to their highest close since June.

  • Money flow continues to move into the corn market as hedge funds have grown their long position, supported by the demand tone and friendly USDA data. Expectations are that hedge funds are 280,000-300,000 net long contracts. The latest Commitment of Traders report will be released on Monday afternoon.

  • Corn export inspections reached 1.441 MMT (56.7 mb) last week, surpassing analyst expectations. Year-to-date shipments are 26% ahead of last year and continue to outpace the USDA’s forecasted pace.

  • Strong producer selling in both U.S. and international markets could cap the corn rally by boosting export competition. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index climbed to a new high on Monday, adding headwinds for exports.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 450, with additional support near 434. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 460 with additional resistance near 475.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We remain focused on the 1060–1080 range versus March ’25 for recommending additional sales of your 2024 crop.

  • Key reasons for targeting this higher range include:

    • Funds holding significant short positions across the soy complex—soybeans, meal, and oil.

    • The entire soy complex is macro-oversold, a condition that historically favors buying over selling.

    • Seasonal opportunities may improve as the South American growing season progresses.

2025 Crop:

  • The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. No sales recommendations are planned until at least the peak of the U.S. growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher for the second consecutive trading session with the March contract now comfortably above the 100-day moving average with the 200-day as its potential next target. Trade is riding the sugar high from Friday’s WASDE report and potentially dry Argentinian weather.

  • Both soybean meal and oil were higher today, but soybean meal led the entire complex higher as concerns arise over the forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil with Argentina facing dangerously low soil moisture levels. Higher crude oil prices today were likely supportive to soybean oil.

  • Friday’s WASDE report saw the national soybean yield fall by 1 bpa which was significantly more than the average trade estimate. Ending stocks have fallen to just 380 mb from 470 mb in December’s report. World ending stocks were lowered as well.

  • One week from today, President Trump will be inaugurated, and he has stated that 100 executive orders would begin on his first day. While most will likely focus on border security, Tariffs on Chinese goods will likely also be a focus, and this could have a negative impact on trade relations.

Above: The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat finished higher in all three classes, led by double digit gains in Chicago. This rally occurred despite a new near-term high for the US Dollar today, and relatively neutral wheat data on Friday’s report. Spillover support from higher corn, and sharply higher soybeans, offered strength to wheat.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 10.6 mb bring total 24/25 inspections to 478 mb, which is up 25% from last year. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace, and exports are estimated at 850 mb, up 20% from the year prior.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values remained unchanged last week at $237 per MT on a FOB basis. SovEcon reported Russian grain exports totaling 410,000 MT for the week, with wheat accounting for 400,000 MT. Russia also reduced its wheat export tax by 2.3% to 4,245 Rubles per MT through January 21.

  • Ukraine’s total 2025 grain production may reach between 55-65 mmt, according to UkrAgroConsult. For reference, last year’s grain harvest was 54.3 mmt. In addition, the amount of grain for export is estimated to be between 40-50 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target 680 – 705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 Chi wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 Chi wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing.

2026 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop.  

  • With daily trading volume in the July ‘26 contract increasing to start the New Year, and nearly 90 cents of carry between the March ‘25 and July ‘26 contracts, we recommend making your first sale for the crop you’ll plant this fall.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 650 – 700 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Potentially targeting a rally to the 610–635 range versus March ’25 for additional sales of your 2024 crop. While this is the initial area of interest, the near-record short position held by the Funds suggests that this target range could shift as future price action develops.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

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1-10 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Sharply Higher Following USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures soared on Friday after the USDA made a larger-than-expected cut to 2024 U.S. corn yield estimates. March futures finished the week with a gain of 19-3/4 cents.

  • Soybean futures ended the week on a positive note as the USDA lowered the 2024 soybean yield by 2.6%, reducing ending stocks to 380 million bushels.

  • March soybean oil futures surged over 6.5% on Friday, while soybean meal futures were slightly lower.

  • Wheat futures finished mixed, pressured by USDA data showing U.S. winter wheat plantings exceeding both last year’s figures and pre-report estimates.

  • To see the updated U.S. drought monitor as well as the South American 10-day GEFS Total Accumulated Precipitation, in millimeters, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits scroll down the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • With March futures knocking on the door of their highest level since May 2024 and continuous corn up roughly 25% from the pre-harvest low in August, it is time to reward this rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target 455 – 475 versus Dec ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2025 crop.

  • The strong demand tone for U.S. corn continues to provide support to the market, but this higher price will likely buy additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Major resistance on the December 2025 chart is near the 480 futures level. A close above this level could signal a potential breakout from the current range.

  • Watch for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance. This strategy would help protect current sales in the event of a prolonged rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market ended the week with strong gains, driven by a bullish USDA WASDE report. March corn rose 19 ¾ cents for the week. With the strong close, the market will be watching the price action on Monday for follow-through of the buying strength today.

  • USDA weekly export sales for the week ending January 2 totaled 455,000 MT—a marketing-year low and well below expectations. The decline was largely due to six countries reducing or canceling prior sales. Despite this, U.S. corn export sales remain 30% ahead of last year. Market watchers will monitor whether this trend persists.

  • The USDA cut its 2024-25 corn yield forecast by 3.8 bu/acre to 179.3 bu/acre, reducing production by 276 mb. While demand estimates were trimmed by 75 mb, carryout fell to 1.540 billion bushels, below market expectations. Quarterly grain stocks for corn were reported at 12.074 billion bushels—100 mb below expectations and 90 mb less than last year, with 7.66 billion bushels stored on farms as of November 30.

  • Despite dry conditions, Argentina’s crop ratings remain above average, though slightly below last year. Rain chances are expected to improve in the second half of January, offering potential relief to stressed crops.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 450, with additional support near 434. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 460 with additional resistance near 475.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We remain focused on the 1060–1080 range versus March ’25 for recommending additional sales of your 2024 crop.

  • Key reasons for targeting this higher range include:

    • Funds holding significant short positions across the soy complex—soybeans, meal, and oil.

    • The entire soy complex is macro-oversold, a condition that historically favors buying over selling.

    • Seasonal opportunities may improve as the South American growing season progresses.

2025 Crop:

  • The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. No sales recommendations are planned until at least the peak of the U.S. growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher following a surprisingly bullish USDA report. The big leader was soybean oil which ended 6.59% higher in the March contract which was supported by anticipation of the clean fuel tax credit by the Biden administration. Soybean meal ended the day slightly lower.

  • Today’s WASDE report held a bullish surprise in the way of a yield cut which was much larger than expected. Yields were cut to 50.7 bpa from 51.7 bpa last month, and this was lower than the average trade guess of 51.6 bpa. Ending stocks fell to 380 mb from 470 mb. Both Argentinian and Brazilian soybean production were surprisingly unchanged from last month.

  • Better Argentinian weather has been pressuring soybean meal, but soybean oil has taken an opposite trend over the past week with large gains both yesterday and today. The Biden administration is expected to release its climate model for clean tax fuel credits next week which trade has been waiting for and has been very friendly to soybean oil.

  • Today’s Export Sales report was very poor with the USDA reporting an increase of 10.6 million bushels of soybean export sales in 24/25 and 14,700 bushels for 25/26. This was well below the lowest trade estimate. Primary destinations were to the Netherlands, China, and Indonesia. Last week’s export shipments of 58.1 mb were above the 22.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

Above: The recent break in prices found initial support near 950. Initial overhead resistance lies just above the market near 1030 with additional resistance between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed in mixed fashion, as today’s report data was neutral to bearish for the wheat complex. Another move higher for the U.S. Dollar Index after a stronger than expected jobs report was also negative for wheat prices, despite a higher close for Paris futures.

  • The USDA pegged U.S. 2024/25 wheat ending stocks at 798 mb, slightly above December’s 795 mb estimate. Global ending stocks also rose modestly, from 257.9 mmt to 258.8 mmt. Quarterly stocks as of December 1 were reported at 1.570 bb, up from 1.421 bb last year. Winter wheat planted acreage was estimated at 34.1 million acres, exceeding the average trade guess of 31.3 million and up about 2% from last year.

  • Russian wheat exports were revised lower by 1 mmt to 46.0 mmt, while Ukrainian exports fell by 0.5 mmt to 16.0 mmt. Australian and Argentine production estimates remained steady at 32.0 mmt and 17.5 mmt, respectively.

  • In an update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as of January 9, Argentina’s 24/25 wheat crop was 98.2% harvested, with the production estimate remaining unchanged at 18.6 mmt; this is above the USDA’s guess today. For reference, last year’s crop totaled 15.1 mmt.

  • According to a Russian agricultural regulator, Russia exported 73.1 mmt of grains in 2024, up 4 mmt year over year. Wheat accounted for 57.5 mmt of this total. Combined exports of grains and grain products reached 86.7 mmt, an increase from 83.9 mmt in 2023.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target 680 – 705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 Chi wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 Chi wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 650 – 700 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Potentially targeting a rally to the 610–635 range versus March ’25 for additional sales of your 2024 crop. While this is the initial area of interest, the near-record short position held by the Funds suggests that this target range could shift as future price action develops.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: South America 10-day GEFS Total Accumulated Precipitation, in millimeters, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

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1-09 End of Day: Grain Markets End Day Mixed Ahead of Tomorrow’s USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

Due to CME settlement issues, prices are last trade prices and not official settlements.

All Prices as of 12:15 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn prices closed higher today as traders position themselves ahead of tomorrow’s USDA WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.

  • Soybeans closed higher, receiving support from soybean oil, which ended considerably higher. However, soybean meal posted losses as weather conditions in Argentina improve.

  • Wheat futures ended the day lower across all three classes, with the U.S. dollar staying at elevated levels, continuing to keep pressure on the wheat market.

  • To see the U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • With March futures knocking on the door of their highest level since June and continuous corn up roughly 23% from the pre-harvest low in August it is time to reward this rally.

  • The January WASDE report will be released on Friday, January 10, and it’s one of the most volatile report days of the year. Corn prices often fluctuate by ±4%, depending on whether the report delivers a bullish or bearish surprise. This provides yet another reason to take advantage of the rally, just in case the USDA delivers a bearish shock.

2025 Crop:

  • Target 455 – 475 versus Dec ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2025 crop.

  • The strong demand tone for U.S. corn continues to provide support to the market, but this higher price will likely buy additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Major resistance on the December 2025 chart is near the 480 futures level. A close above this level could signal a potential breakout from the current range.

  • Watch for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance. This strategy would help protect current sales in the event of a prolonged rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market closed higher for the session as traders anticipated the release of Friday’s USDA WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.

  • This morning, the Biden Administration issued short-term guidance on the 45Z tax credit plan concerning the clean energy fuel tax credit. The release helped support the market during the session and was much anticipated by the sustainable aviation fuel industry. This was only interim guidance, leaving the final plan up to the Trump Administration.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales for corn on Friday morning. The market will be watching those totals to gauge the demand pace. Concerns that corn demand may be slowing with higher prices and strong U.S. dollar limiting the U.S. in competitive balance with other global exporters. Expectations for new sales to range from 700,000 – 1.4 MMT for the week ending January 2. Last week’s sales were disappointing at 776,000 MT.

  • The expectations for the January WASDE reports are for corn production to be limited, reducing the possible carry out total to 1.680 billion bushels. This may be achieved by a possible lower yield, following the trend from the December report. Grain stock may be a sleeper number on the day with expected stocks at 12.166 billion bushels, just slightly under last year.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 450, with additional support near 434. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 460 with additional resistance near 475.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We remain focused on the 1060–1080 range versus March ’25 for recommending additional sales of your 2024 crop.

  • Key reasons for targeting this higher range include:

    • Funds holding significant short positions across the soy complex—soybeans, meal, and oil.

    • The entire soy complex is macro-oversold, a condition that historically favors buying over selling.

    • Seasonal opportunities may improve as the South American growing season progresses.

2025 Crop:

  • The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. No sales recommendations are planned until at least the peak of the U.S. growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the shortened trading day higher, supported by a significant gain in soybean oil, while soybean meal traded lower. March soybean meal fell below $300 as weather conditions in Argentina improved, while soybean oil rose in tandem with crude oil.

  • In Brazil, the state of Mato Grosso has begun its soybean harvest after dry weather caused planting delays at the beginning of the season. Mato Grosso increased its planted soybean acreage by 1.47% from last year this season.

  • Pre-report estimates for soybeans in Friday’s WASDE see ending stocks falling by 12 mb to 458 mb. Yield is expected to be reduced by 0.1 bpa to 51.6 bpa, but the bearish surprise in Friday’s report could come from changes made to Brazilian production. Many analysts are expecting soybean production to be above 175 mmt, but the USDA’s last estimate in December was 169 mmt.

  • Brazilian soybean exports are expected to be down 30% at 1.71 mmt for the month of January compared to last year at this time. Despite this, a potential record harvest for the country would likely point to record export sales in 2025.

Above: The recent break in prices found initial support near 950. Initial overhead resistance lies just above the market near 1030 with additional resistance between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite corn and soybeans inching their way to positive closes, wheat was unable to follow suit, with all three classes posting losses. A mixed to lower close for Matif wheat provided no support, and with the U.S. dollar remaining elevated, wheat continues to hover near contract lows.

  • With the monthly WASDE data set for release tomorrow, alongside the Winter Wheat Seedings report, the market may see news that could break prices out of their current sideways trend. However, traders are likely to focus more on the USDA’s stance regarding Russian production and exports.

  • On a bullish note, U.S. SRW wheat is reported to be priced equally to Argentina’s wheat on a FOB basis and is offered at a $10 per mt discount compared to French wheat. This could support export sales, which are already strong.

  • The CME is set to launch a new wheat contract for futures and options trading; if approved, the spring wheat contract will be available in the second quarter. Additionally, the CME will delist the current MIAX/MGEX spring wheat contract from its trading platform.

  • India’s wheat production estimate for 2025/26 remains unchanged at 112.7 mmt, according to LSEG. This is despite a larger planted area in Haryana, a key wheat-producing state. While India is a major wheat grower, it consumes nearly all of its production. As a result, any decline in output could force the country to import wheat.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target 680 – 705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 Chi wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 Chi wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 650 – 700 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Potentially targeting a rally to the 610–635 range versus March ’25 for additional sales of your 2024 crop. While this is the initial area of interest, the near-record short position held by the Funds suggests that this target range could shift as future price action develops.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.