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2-06 End of Day: A Strong Wheat Market Drives Corn and Soybeans Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn closed higher today, supported by strong demand and buying strength in the wheat market.

  • Beans: After a choppy trading day, soybeans ended higher, supported by strength in the wheat market and the ongoing harvest in Brazil.

  • Wheat: Wheat continues higher at close on all three markets driven by another cold snap anticipated in the Northern Great Plains.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • Sales Target Range: With the March ‘25 contract facing continued resistance at the lower end of the 495 – 515 target range, Grain Market Insider recommended making a sale on Tuesday. The upper end of the target range at 515 remains a key level to watch. If March ‘25 corn can break through this resistance, Grain Market Insider will consider it as another potential sales target.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart remains between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50 — historical levels that could challenge further upside.

2025 Crop: 

  • Be Ready: The December ‘25 contract just closed at a new high in the current uptrend. Stay alert for a sales recommendation in the 473–479 range.

  • Downside Support: Key support for the December ‘25 contract remains at 453.75—an important level to watch in the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A strong close above this level could open the door to broader upside potential as we head into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge against existing sales and get you repositioned to the topside in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 2–4 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures pulled off session lows to finish slightly higher, supported by good demand tone and buying strength in the wheat market. The March futures have been consolidating just under the 500 level.

  • Weekly corn export sales were announced on Thursday morning. The USDA released that new corn sales for the week ending January 30 totaled 1.477 MMT (58.2 mb). This was toward the top end of analyst expectations. Year-over-year, total corn sales are running 28% better than the last marketing year.

  • Argentina’s corn crop conditions slipped this week to 25% good, down 3% from last week, and 28% poor, also down 3% from last week. The corn market is still anticipating some production losses with the Argentina corn crop.

  • Mexico announced that they have officially dropped restrictions on GMO corn inputs. Previously, the GMO import ban was a concern with possible limitations for imports of U.S. corn, if the ban was enacted.

Corn Rally Holding Strong as Buyers Stay Engaged
The corn market’s uptrend has been firing on all cylinders since harvest, fueled by eager fund buying and solid demand. Support is firmly in place at 475, with an extra layer of reinforcement near the breakout zone around 450. On the upside, prices are knocking on the door of 500, a key resistance level that could determine the next leg of this rally. For now, the bulls remain in control, but the market is watching closely to see if momentum can push corn through the next hurdle.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider advised selling another portion of your 2024 soybean crop last week.

  • Down Week: Last week, the March ‘25 contract snapped a five-week winning streak, posting its first weekly loss since December 16. It closed the week down nearly 14 cents.

  • Resistance: The March ‘25 contract has yet to secure a weekly close above the start of the resistance band at 1060. The last time the front-month contract closed above this level on a weekly continuous chart was the week of September 23 last year.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying November ‘25 1100 soybean calls and November ‘25 1180 soybean calls in equal quantities with a total net spend of approximately 88 cents plus commission and fees. The November ‘25 contract closed over 1071 resistance on Tuesday, which opens the door of opportunity for a continued move higher. Buying these call options will reopen the topside on the sales recommendation made last week. Also, buying two strikes provides the option to leg out of the lower strike once it covers the cost of the upper strike.

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop. Now remains a good time to get the first new crop sale on the books and use today’s call option recommendation to re-own this sale right away.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans traded either side of unchanged today but ultimately closed higher with support from a very strong wheat market. Export sales were disappointing, and harvest progress continues in Brazil despite the wet conditions. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was slightly higher.

  • Today’s export sales report saw soybean sales come in towards the lower end of trade estimates. The USDA reported an increase of 14.2 million bushels of soybean sales in 24/25 and none for 25/26. Last week’s export shipments of 43.8 mb were above the 19.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

  • Primary destinations last week for soybean export sales were to China, the Netherlands, and Egypt. With tariffs recently placed on Chinese goods and the potential for more to come, it is possible that Chinese demand will slow down in favor of South American soybeans.

  • In Brazil, harvest progress continues despite the wet weather, and expectations for a large crop remain intact. Some fields in Mato Grosso are reporting yields around 62.5 bpa. While progress has been made, transportation bottlenecks are emerging as major highways remain congested with trucks hauling beans.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures struggled to break above resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level that has capped gains for over 18 months. However, early February price action has shown enough strength to close above this key level, signaling potential for further upside. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three wheat markets closed higher, holding above the 100-day moving average, driven by cold temperatures moving into the northern Great Plains of the U.S. and ongoing fund short covering.

  • Weekly wheat exports came in at 18 mb, which was in line with expectations, with old crop commitments at 683 mb up 8% from YA vs the USDA forecast of up 20%.

  • The Black Sea regions in Russia and Ukraine are expected to experience a drop in temperatures starting next week, following an unusually warm winter. Given the less-than-ideal establishment of last fall’s crop in these areas, the need for snow cover has become critical. Snow cover is essential to protect winter crops from damage and ensure their survival during this cold spell.

  • The U.S. drought monitor shows increasing dry conditions in the Northern half of the Great Plains and dry conditions coming back in the southern half as well.

  • Market concerns continue to weigh heavily on prices as traders closely monitor U.S.-China relations, with ongoing tariff negotiations maintaining tensions over the potential for a trade war.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 680-705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in SRW suggests that 680-705 is a realistic and reachable target zone. In the last three instances when the Funds held a similar net short position and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 140 cents, 90 cents, and 170 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stuck in Neutral – For Now
Chicago wheat continues to tread familiar ground, locked in a tight range between 530 and 577. The market is searching for a spark, and a breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could open the door for a push toward 617. On the flip side, if support at 536 cracks, sellers may take control, driving prices down toward the 521–514 support zone. For now, wheat remains in wait-and-see mode, poised for its next big move.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Next Sales Target Range: Buyers regained control today, pushing the March ‘25 contract above the 600 pivot level and surpassing yesterday’s bearish reversal high of 603.25. The next target zone is 650–700.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in HRW supports 650-700 as a realistic and reachable target zone. Historically, when the Funds held a net short position exceeding 40,000 contracts and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 100 cents, 100 cents, 160 cents, and 70 cents in the last four instances.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Shows Signs of Life
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with the early February rally above the 200-day moving average a test of the October highs near 620 looks likely, support should appear at the top end of the recent range near 580.

2024 Crop:

  • No Official Target Range: Over the past couple of trading days, the March ‘25 contract has pushed into the previously mentioned potential target range of 610-635. Unless market conditions shift, Grain Market Insider plans to take a more opportunistic approach and aim for a target beyond 635.

  • Short Covering Potential: The Funds’ massive net short position in HRS continues to provide upside potential. The last time they held a short position of this size and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied about 110 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout: Rally or False Start?
After months of treading water, spring wheat finally found its spark in late January, surging beyond its previous range and signaling a potential breakout. The next big test lies at the 200-day moving average near 625, a level that could either fuel further momentum or stand as a stubborn ceiling. However, any near-term weakness or a close back below 613 could snuff out the rally, pulling prices back into their familiar rangebound pattern.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above two: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-05 End of Day: Grain Markets Struggle Amid Volatility and Trade Concerns

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Ended the day mixed with strong demand providing underlying support despite weakness in other grains.

  • Beans: Finished sharply lower on Wednesday with front-month contracts taking the brunt of the losses. Both soybean meal and oil also ended the day in negative territory.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures stumbled today, following soybeans lower as broad concerns over a potential trade war with China rattled the grain markets.

  • To see the updated 6–10-day temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S. as well as the 10-day GEFS precipitation forecast for South America scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • Sales Target Range: With the March ‘25 contract facing continued resistance at the lower end of the 495 – 515 target range, Grain Market Insider recommended making a sale yesterday to capitalize on Monday’s and yesterday’s price rebound. The upper end of the target range at 515 remains a key level to watch. If March ‘25 corn can break through this resistance, Grain Market Insider will consider it as another potential sales target.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart stands between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50 — historical levels that could challenge further upside.

2025 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: The current advice remains to hold steady on sales as we watch for a potential move toward 479, which could trigger the next sales recommendation.

  • Downside Support: Key support for December ‘25 contracts sits at 453.75 — an important level to watch in the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A strong close above this level could open the door to broader upside potential as we head into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge against existing sales and get you repositioned to the topside in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 2–4 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw choppy two-side trade as prices finished mixed on the day. Corn futures faded off early session highs pressured by selling int he wheat and soybean market, but the firm demand tone stayed supportive corn futures.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn on Wednesday morning, with Mexico stepping in to purchase 330,000 MT (12.9 mb) for the 2025-26 marketing year.

  • The U.S. Census Bureau released corn exports totals for December. The U.S. exported 5.45 MMT (214 mb) of corn in December. This total was a 35-year high for the month and up 33% from the five-year average. Mexico received 34% of the corn shipments while Japan took 21% of that total.

  • Weekly ethanol production jumped last week to 1.112 million bpd for the week ending January 31. This was up 9.6% from last week and 7.6% above last year. This was also the third largest weekly production on record. A total of 112 mb of corn was used for weekly production, which is still ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA targets for the marketing year.

Corn Rally Holding Strong as Buyers Stay Engaged
The corn market’s uptrend has been firing on all cylinders since harvest, fueled by eager fund buying and solid demand. Support is firmly in place at 475, with an extra layer of reinforcement near the breakout zone around 450. On the upside, prices are knocking on the door of 500, a key resistance level that could determine the next leg of this rally. For now, the bulls remain in control, but the market is watching closely to see if momentum can push corn through the next hurdle.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider advised selling another portion of your 2024 soybean crop last week.

  • Down Week: Last week, the March ‘25 contract snapped a five-week winning streak, posting its first weekly loss since December 16. It closed the week down nearly 14 cents.

  • Resistance: The March ‘25 contract has yet to secure a weekly close above the start of the resistance band at 1060. The last time the front-month contract closed above this level on a weekly continuous chart was the week of September 23 last year.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying November ‘25 1100 soybean calls and November ‘25 1180 soybean calls in equal quantities with a total net spend of approximately 88 cents plus commission and fees. The November ‘25 contract closed over 1071 resistance yesterday, which opens the door of opportunity for a continued move higher. Buying these call options will reopen the topside on the sales recommendation made last week. Also, buying two strikes provides the option to leg out of the lower strike once it covers the cost of the upper strike.

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop. Now remains a good time to get the first new crop sale on the books and use today’s call option recommendation to re-own this sale right away.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower and were bear spread with the bulk of losses in the front months. The March contract gave back all of yesterday’s gains but also made a new high for the year earlier this morning. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.

  • U.S. soybean exports in December totaled 7.96 million tons, a 68% jump from last year and 8% above the five-year average. China was the largest buyer, accounting for 52% of shipments, followed by Mexico at 8%.

  • In Brazil, wet weather continues to slow the soybean harvest, but expectations for a large crop remain intact. While some progress has been made, transportation bottlenecks are emerging as major highways remain congested with trucks hauling beans.

  • Funds are likely now long around 70,000 contracts of soybeans which while large, is a far cry from their record net long position of 238,394 contracts in 2020. Speculative traders also now hold a small net long position in soybeans for the first time since late 2023, but the extreme volatility over the past week could cause these funds to take profits and adopt a risk-off approach.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures struggled to break above resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level that has capped gains for over 18 months. However, early February price action has shown enough strength to close above this key level, signaling potential for further upside. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat prices slid today, pressured by a soybean-led decline across the grain complex. March Matif wheat futures offered no support, retreating by four euros/mt in a sharp reversal that erased gains from earlier in the week. Mounting concerns over a potential trade war with China appeared to weigh heavily on the market.

  • Census data showed December ’24 wheat exports rising 9% year over year to 61 mb. For the first seven months of the 24/25 marketing year, exports have surged 29% compared to the same period last year, outpacing the USDA’s full-year projection of a 20% increase.

  • On a bearish note, China claims to have an excess of wheat due to a better than expected harvest. This caused them to delay or potentially re-sell imports of 10 cargoes (600,000 mt) of wheat to neighboring Asian nations.

  • Russia’s wheat export tax as of February 5 as declined 11% to 3,941.6 rubles/mt. Duties on barley and corn were also reduced, with the new values valid until February 11.

  • Ukraine’s agriculture minister announced plans to establish a grain processing hub in Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone. This facility is expected to facilitate Ukrainian agricultural exports to countries with trade agreements with Egypt, expanding market access for Ukrainian grain and its derivatives.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 680-705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in SRW suggests that 680-705 is a realistic and reachable target zone. In the last three instances when the Funds held a similar net short position and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 140 cents, 90 cents, and 170 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stuck in Neutral – For Now
Chicago wheat continues to tread familiar ground, locked in a tight range between 530 and 577. The market is searching for a spark, and a breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could open the door for a push toward 617. On the flip side, if support at 536 cracks, sellers may take control, driving prices down toward the 521–514 support zone. For now, wheat remains in wait-and-see mode, poised for its next big move.

2024 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop today.

  • Today’s bearish reversal: Grain Market Insider has been targeting 650-700 for the next recommended sale, but today’s rejection near 600 and the subsequent bearish daily reversal are hard to ignore. The front-month contract hasn’t closed above 600 since early October, and historically, this level has acted as a key pivot—marking the divide between higher and lower price trends.

  • Next Sales Target Range: The 650-700 zone will remain on the radar as a potential next sales target—if buyers can regroup and push the March ’25 contract above the key 600 level and today’s bearish reversal high of 603.25.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in HRW supports 650-700 as a realistic and reachable target zone. Historically, when the Funds held a net short position exceeding 40,000 contracts and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 100 cents, 100 cents, 160 cents, and 70 cents in the last four instances.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Shows Signs of Life
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with the early February rally above the 200-day moving average a test of the October highs near 620 looks likely, support should appear at the top end of the recent range near 580.

2024 Crop:

  • No Official Target Range: Over the past couple of trading days, the March ‘25 contract has pushed into the previously mentioned potential target range of 610-635. Unless market conditions shift, Grain Market Insider plans to take a more opportunistic approach and aim for a target beyond 635.

  • Short Covering Potential: The Funds’ massive net short position in HRS continues to provide upside potential. The last time they held a short position of this size and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied about 110 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout: Rally or False Start?
After months of treading water, spring wheat finally found its spark in late January, surging beyond its previous range and signaling a potential breakout. The next big test lies at the 200-day moving average near 625, a level that could either fuel further momentum or stand as a stubborn ceiling. However, any near-term weakness or a close back below 613 could snuff out the rally, pulling prices back into their familiar rangebound pattern.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: South America 10-day GEFS Total Accumulated Precipitation, in millimeters, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

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2-04 End of Day: Grains Continue March Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: With concerns over tariffs on Mexico and Canada delayed, traders shifted their focus to strong demand, driving buying in corn futures on Tuesday.

  • Beans: News that China did not retaliate against U.S. tariffs by placing tariffs on soybeans spurred buying across the soybean complex. This momentum helped March futures close above significant resistance, signaling renewed strength in the market.

  • Wheat: Futures joined the rally higher in corn and soybeans as front month KC wheat futures closed above significant upside resistance, the 200-day moving average.

  • To see the updated 5-day precipitation forecast for South America as well as the soil moisture percentile map for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop today.

  • Sales Target Range: With the March ‘25 contract facing continued resistance at the lower end of the 495 – 515 target range, Grain Market Insider recommends making a sale today to capitalize on this week’s rebound. The upper end of the target range at 515 remains a key level to watch. If March ‘25 corn can break through this resistance, Grain Market Insider will consider it as another potential sales target.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart stands between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50 — historical levels that could challenge further upside.

2025 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: Grain Market Insider previously recommended making a couple of sales for the 2025 crop in mid-January. For now, the advice is to hold steady as we watch for a move toward 479, which could trigger the next sales recommendation.

  • Downside Support: Key support for December ‘25 contracts sits at 453.75 — an important level to watch in the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A strong close above this level could open the door to broader upside potential as we head into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge against existing sales and get you repositioned to the topside in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 2–4 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Buyers stayed active in the corn market as traders put prospects of tariffs on the back burner and focused on the strong demand tone for U.S. corn. Buying in both the soybean and wheat markets helped support corn futures on Tuesday.

  • The front end of the corn market is pushing back toward the $5.00 resistance level, a price barrier that has capped March futures in recent trading.

  • The USDA announced a flash export sale of 132,000 metric tons (5.2 million bushels) of U.S. corn to South Korea for the current marketing year, further reinforcing demand strength.

  • Traders are closely monitoring Brazil’s delayed planting pace for its key second corn crop. A slow planting pace could extend the U.S. export window into early summer and expose Brazil’s crop to less favorable weather conditions, potentially limiting production.

Corn Uptrend Well Supported
Fund buying and strong demand have sustained the corn market’s uptrend since harvest. Initial support is at 475, with additional support near the breakout area around 450. Overhead resistance is now just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider advised selling another portion of your 2024 soybean crop last week.

  • Down Week: Last week, the March ‘25 contract snapped a five-week winning streak, posting its first weekly loss since December 16. It closed the week down nearly 14 cents.

  • Resistance: The March ‘25 contract has yet to secure a weekly close above the start of the resistance band at 1060. The last time the front-month contract closed above this level on a weekly continuous chart was the week of September 23 last year.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends buying November ‘25 1100 soybean calls and November ‘25 1180 soybean calls in equal quantities with a total net spend of approximately 88 cents plus commission and fees. The November ‘25 contract closed over 1071 resistance today, which opens the door of opportunity for a continued move higher. Buying these call options will reopen the topside on the sales recommendation made last week. Also, buying two strikes provides the option to leg out of the lower strike once it covers the cost of the upper strike.

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop. Now remains a good time to get the first new crop sale on the books and use today’s call option recommendation to reown this sale right away.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly higher with the March contract closing above the 200-day moving average for the first time since December 2023. Higher soybean meal was the primary driver for soybeans today while soybean oil was slightly lower along with crude oil. The higher meal prices likely point to dry weather in Argentina and logistics issues in Brazil.

  • Grain markets have been volatile since tariffs were implemented and in some cases postponed yesterday, but China’s tariff of 10% was held in place. The bullish part of this news was that though China did retaliate placing tariffs on some U.S. goods, soybeans were not included.

  • In Brazil, despite the wet conditions that are delaying harvest, a large crop is still expected. A portion of harvest is completed, but there have been serious problems within the country concerning transportation with many main highways backed up with trucks carrying beans.

  • Yesterday, the USDA released its Fats and Oils report which saw the December soybean crush at 217.7 million bushels which was another monthly record for soybean crush. Crush margins remain firm which points to another strong crush number in January.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures struggled to break above resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level that has capped gains for over 18 months. However, early February price action has shown enough strength to close above this key level, signaling potential for further upside. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three wheat classes posted gains today, supported by strength in corn and soybeans, as well as a significant drop in the U.S. dollar. Winter wheat crop ratings, released yesterday, showed improvement in Kansas, the top-producing state, while conditions declined in Nebraska, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado.

  • European Union soft wheat exports have reached 12.5 mmt as of February 2. That is down 37% year over year. Furthermore, the European Commission has kept EU total grain production steady at 255.8 mmt for 24/25, with wheat accounting for 111.9 mmt of that total.

  • According to SovEcon, Russia’s 24/25 wheat exports are anticipated at 42.8 mmt, below the USDA estimate of 46 mmt. However, they raised the 25/26 export estimate from 36.4 to 38.3 mmt. In related news, they have also said that domestic Russian wheat prices so far in 2025 have climbed 9% to $158/mt.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 680-705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in SRW suggests that 680-705 is a realistic and reachable target zone. In the last three instances when the Funds held a similar net short position and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 140 cents, 90 cents, and 170 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stays Rangebound
Front-month Chicago wheat remains confined between 530 and 577. A breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could prompt a retest of 617, while a close below 536 may lead to a decline toward the 521–514 support range.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 650-700 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in HRW supports 650-700 as a realistic and reachable target zone. Historically, when the Funds held a net short position exceeding 40,000 contracts and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 100 cents, 100 cents, 160 cents, and 70 cents in the last four instances.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Shows Signs of Life
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with the early February rally above the 200-day moving average a test of the October highs near 620 looks likely, support should appear at the top end of the recent range near 580.

2024 Crop:

  • No Official Target Range: Over the past couple of trading days, the March ‘25 contract has pushed into the previously mentioned potential target range of 610-635. Unless market conditions shift, Grain Market Insider plans to take a more opportunistic approach and aim for a target beyond 635.

  • Short Covering Potential: The Funds’ massive net short position in HRS continues to provide upside potential. The last time they held a short position of this size and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied about 110 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Holds Range
After months of rangebound trade, spring wheat staged a late-January rally, breaking above its previous range. Overhead resistance lies at the 200-day moving average near 625. Near-term weakness or a close back below 613 would negate the potential breakout and likely see a resumption of rangebound trade.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: South America 5-day precipitation forecast, courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center.

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2-03 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans End Higher in Volatile Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures reversed from overnight lows today following the announcement that tariffs between the U.S. and Mexico would be delayed for 30 days.

  • Beans: Rallied sharply on Monday on strong export inspections as futures closed back near recent upside resistance at the 200-day moving average.

  • Wheat: Wheat was the weakest performer in the grain markets on Monday, posting minimal gains as the U.S. Dollar Index notched its fifth consecutive session higher.

  • To see the updated 30-day percent of normal rainfall map for South America as well as the 7-day U.S. precipitation forecast scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Sales Target Range: Grain Market Insider is continuing to target towards the top end of the 495 – 515 range vs March ‘25 to recommend making the next sale.

  • Down Week: March ‘25 fell a net of 4-½ cents last week and posted its first down week since the week of December 30th.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart stands between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50 — historical levels that could challenge further upside.

2025 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: Grain Market Insider previously recommended making a couple of sales for the 2025 crop in mid-January. For now, the advice is to hold steady as we watch for a move toward 479, which could trigger the next sales recommendation.

  • Downside Support: Key support for December ‘25 contracts sits at 453.75 — an important level to watch in the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A strong close above this level could open the door to broader upside potential as we head into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge against existing sales and get you repositioned to the topside in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 2–4 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn ended the day higher after very volatile trade which saw prices sharply lower overnight before rallying following breaking news that the tariffs on Mexico would be postponed for 30 days. March corn filled both the gap left from last night’s trade along with the gap left on Friday at $4.90.

  • Weekly inspections reached 49.3 million bushels, bringing the 2024/25 total to 856 million bushels, which is 33% ahead of last year. Inspections are outpacing the USDA’s estimated export pace of 2.450 billion bushels, which would reflect a 7% year-over-year increase.

  • Argentina is forecasted to receive improved rainfall between Tuesday and Thursday, with as much as four inches possible over the next 10 days. This contributed to early session weakness in the corn market.

  • Brazil has experienced heavy rains, delaying safrinha crop planting. As of last week, only 6% of the crop was planted, compared to 29% last year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of corn as of January 28 by 39,043 contracts which increased their net long position to 350,721 contracts. Funds are now just 50,000 contracts shy from a record large net long position, and it may not take much bearish news to incentivize profit taking.

Corn Uptrend Well Supported
Fund buying and strong demand have sustained the corn market’s uptrend since harvest. Initial support is at 475, with additional support near the breakout area around 450. Overhead resistance is now just below 500.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 28. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 39,043 contracts between January 21 – January 28, bringing their total position to a net long 350,721 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider advised selling another portion of your 2024 soybean crop last week.

  • Down Week: Last week, the March ‘25 contract snapped a five-week winning streak, posting its first weekly loss since December 16. It closed the week down nearly 14 cents.

  • Resistance: The March ‘25 contract has yet to secure a weekly close above the start of the resistance band at 1060. The last time the front-month contract closed above this level on a weekly continuous chart was the week of September 23 last year.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

  • First Sale Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recommended initiating 2025 soybean sales last week on Wednesday, as the November ‘25 contract closed at a fresh high of 1063.50, and as the spread between the March ‘25 and November ‘25 contracts flipped from an inversion to a carry. With this spread trending bearish and significant resistance looming near 1070, now looks like a good time to start locking in new crop sales. Especially as Grain Market Insider is prepared to quickly recommend reowning this sale with call options if needed.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after a volatile session driven by shifting tariff news. Early in the session, soybean meal traded lower while soybean oil found support from tariffs on Canadian oil. However, once the Mexico tariffs were postponed, soybean meal rebounded, contributing to the broader soybean rally.

  • Weekly soybean export inspections totaled 37.2 million bushels for the week ending January 30. Year-to-date, 2024/25 inspections have reached 1.252 billion bushels, up 16% from last year. The USDA projects soybean exports for 2024/25 to rise 8% from the previous year.

  • Brazil’s 24/25 soybean harvest is reportedly 7.6% complete as of January 31 which compares to a pace of 15.7% the previous year and the 5-year average of 11.8% at this time. Rainfall has continued to fall throughout the country which could delay harvest further.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as net buyers of soybeans as of January 28, adding 16,166 contracts and increasing their net long position to 56,496 contracts.

Soybeans Face Long-Term Resistance
Front-month soybeans hit resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level capping gains for over 18 months. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies at the 200-day and recent highs around 1060. A weekly close above 1060 could pave the way for a test of the 1100 level.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 28. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 16,166 contracts between January 21 – January 28, bringing their total position to a net long 56,496 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed higher across all three classes today. The suspension of Mexico tariffs for one month provided a boost to grain markets after early session weakness. Additional support came from a retreat in the U.S. dollar off-session highs and strength in Matif wheat futures, where the May contract broke above resistance at the 200-day moving average.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 9.3 mb bring the 24/25 inspections total to 515 mb, which is up 24% from last year. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace, with exports for 24/25 estimated at 850 mb, up 20% from last year.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values finished last week at $239/mt which is up $2.50 from the week prior. Additionally, SovEcon reports that Russian grain exports totaled 660,000 mt last week, with wheat accounting for 590,000 mt of that total.

  • Australia’s government estimated the wheat crop at 31.9 mmt in December. However, new analyst estimates suggest that the 24/25 crop could be about 2 mmt larger. In an analyst poll by Reuters, estimates now range between 32 and 35.5 mmt. This increase may be in large part due to yields in Western Australia exceeding expectations.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 680-705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in SRW suggests that 680-705 is a realistic and reachable target zone. In the last three instances when the Funds held a similar net short position and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 140 cents, 90 cents, and 170 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stays Rangebound
Front-month Chicago wheat remains confined between 530 and 577. A breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could prompt a retest of 617, while a close below 536 may lead to a decline toward the 521–514 support range.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 28. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 18,990 contracts between January 21 – January 28, bringing their total position to a net short 110,782 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 650-700 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in HRW supports 650-700 as a realistic and reachable target zone. Historically, when the Funds held a net short position exceeding 40,000 contracts and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 100 cents, 100 cents, 160 cents, and 70 cents in the last four instances.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Maintains Range
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with initial resistance near the 100-day moving average at 568. A close above 583 could pave the way for a move toward 600, while a close below 536 risks a decline to 525.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 28. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 7,225 contracts between January 21 – January 28, bringing their total position to a net short 42,386 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • No Official Target Range: Over the past couple of trading days, the March ‘25 contract has pushed into the previously mentioned potential target range of 610-635. Unless market conditions shift, Grain Market Insider plans to take a more opportunistic approach and aim for a target beyond 635.

  • Short Covering Potential: The Funds’ massive net short position in HRS continues to provide upside potential. The last time they held a short position of this size and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied about 110 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Holds Range
After months of rangebound trade, spring wheat staged a late-January rally, breaking above its previous range. Overhead resistance lies at the 200-day moving average near 625. Near-term weakness or a close back below 613 would negate the potential breakout and likely see a resumption of rangebound trade.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 28. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,922 contracts between January 21 – January 28, bringing their total position to a net short 23,242 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: South America 30-day precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center.

Above: U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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1-31 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Slide Lower into the Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Closed lower Friday as prices corrected from recent highs. The looming implementation of tariffs on Mexico and Canada added pressure, raising concerns over potential trade disruptions.

  • Beans: Futures remained subdued, with improved weather in Argentina applying downward pressure on prices. However, gains in soybean oil futures provided some support, helping to limit losses.

  • Wheat: Tracked corn futures lower on Friday after an overall strong week of gains.

  • To see the updated 10-day GEFS total accumulated precipitation for South America as well as the 6–10-day temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Sales Target Range: Grain Market Insider is continuing to target towards the top end of the 495 – 515 range vs March ‘25 to recommend making the next sale.

  • Down Week: March ‘25 fell a net of 4-½ cents this week and posted its first down week since the week of December 30th.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart stands between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50 — historical levels that could challenge further upside.

2025 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: Grain Market Insider previously recommended making a couple of sales for the 2025 crop in mid-January. For now, the advice is to hold steady as we watch for a move toward 479, which could trigger the next sales recommendation.

  • Downside Support: Key support for December ‘25 contracts sits at 453.75 — an important level to watch in the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A strong close above this level could open the door to broader upside potential as we head into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge against existing sales and get you repositioned to the topside in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 3–5 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished the weak lower as talk of tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China pressured the market. For the week, the march corn contract traded 4 ½ cent lower and posted a reversal on the weekly chart as momentum has faded from the corn market.

  • President Trump is planning to install a round of tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China as of February 1. The tariff will be 25% against Mexican and Canadian good, and 10% for Chinese goods. The grain markets are worried about the possible extent of retaliation for the tariffed nations.

  • Argentina forecasts are looking to turn more friend for crop production going into February. February will be a key month for pod and grain fill on this year’s corn and soybean crops.

  • A weak close this week and bearish price action could trigger further technical selling. Managed funds currently hold a near-record net long position in corn, and a loss of buying momentum may prompt additional long liquidation.

  • Despite technical pressures, overall corn demand remains robust. Weekly ethanol production and export demand are outpacing USDA projections. If this trend continues, the USDA may need to tighten ending stock estimates in future reports, which could be supportive of prices.

Corn Uptrend Well Supported
Fund buying and strong demand have sustained the corn market’s uptrend since harvest. Initial support is at 475, with additional support near the breakout area around 450. Overhead resistance is now just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently advised selling another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Down Week: The March ‘25 contract snapped a five-week winning streak, posting its first weekly loss since December 16. It closed the week down nearly 14 cents.

  • Resistance: The March ‘25 contract has yet to secure a weekly close above the start of the resistance band at 1060. The last time the front-month contract closed above this level on a weekly continuous chart was the week of September 23 last year.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

  • First Sale Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recommended initiating 2025 soybean sales on Wednesday, as the November ‘25 contract closed at a fresh high of 1063.50, and as the spread between the March ‘25 and November ‘25 contracts flipped from an inversion to a carry.  With this spread trending bearish and significant resistance looming near 1070, now looks like a strategic opportunity to start locking in new crop sales.  Especially as Grain Market Insider is prepared to quickly recommend reowning this sale with call options if needed.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after mixed trade throughout the session that was partially caused by some miscommunication over President Trump’s tariff plans. Argentinian weather has improved as well which pressured soybeans. Soybean oil ended the day higher.

  • Trade has known for weeks that the Trump administration had planned to implement tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China on February 1, but earlier today, Reuters incorrectly reported that the tariffs would begin on March 1. This cause prices to rally until the White House refuted the claim stating that they would indeed go into effect tomorrow. The tariffs will include Canadian canola oil which was supportive to soybean oil.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina was most likely get rain in February that would put an end to the drought and stop the soybean and corn crops from further deterioration. They expect Argentina to produce 49.6 mmt of soybeans. This news was bearish for soybean meal.

  • For the week, March soybeans lost 13-3/4 cents while November gained 2-1/4. March soybean meal lost $3.70 to $301.10, and March soybean oil gained 0.89 cents to 46.11 cents. The funds are estimated to be long around 50,000 contracts of soybeans.

Soybeans Face Long-Term Resistance
Front-month soybeans hit resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level capping gains for over 18 months. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies at the 200-day and recent highs around 1060. A weekly close above 1060 could pave the way for a test of the 1100 level.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat ended the day lower, driven partly by concerns over the tariffs set to take effect on Mexico and Canada tomorrow, February 1st, and the continued strength of the U.S. Dollar.

  • Tightening global supplies, particularly in the Black Sea region, are expected to persist, providing underlying support to prices. Additionally, growing drought-like conditions in the U.S. Northern Plains, as indicated by the latest drought monitor, show dryness steadily reappearing in the region, further adding to concerns.

  • Ukraine’s combined grain and oilseed harvest is forecasted to rise to 80 MMT in 2025, up from 76 MMT in 2024, driven by higher wheat seedings, according to Reuters. While Ukraine remains a key grain and oilseed producer, production has been significantly impacted by Russia’s 2022 invasion.

  • India’s wheat crop remains a growing concern, and it’s now possible that the country will need to import wheat this year. However, due to the strength of the U.S. Dollar, it’s unlikely they will turn to the U.S., as American wheat will be more expensive compared to other global producers. This, however, will still reduce the overall wheat supply on the market.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: Grain Market Insider maintains a target range of 680–705 for March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: So far, three sales recommendations have been issued for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two earlier recommendations. If you’re behind on sales, this range presents a solid opportunity for a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding. While actionable targets remain out of reach, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stays Rangebound
Front-month Chicago wheat remains confined between 530 and 577. A breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could prompt a retest of 617, while a close below 536 may lead to a decline toward the 521–514 support range.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range for selling more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop remains 650–700 vs. March ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued just two sales recommendations so far, reflecting last year’s significant yield uncertainty and limited post-harvest opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged around 719 vs. July ’24 futures. A sale within the next target range will lower this average, but upside opportunity expectations remain modest for now.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold. While actionable targets are still a way off, these options have about five months remaining until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Maintains Range
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with initial resistance near the 100-day moving average at 568. A close above 583 could pave the way for a move toward 600, while a close below 536 risks a decline to 525.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Sales Target Range: The initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop is a rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25. That said, keep in mind that the near-record short position held by the Funds could lead Grain Market Insider to adjust this target range higher as price action develops.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding them. While actionable targets remain distant, these options have about five months left until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Holds Range
After months of rangebound trade, spring wheat staged a late-January rally, breaking above its previous range. Overhead resistance lies at the 200-day moving average near 625. Near-term weakness or a close back below 613 would negate the potential breakout and likely see a resumption of rangebound trade.

Other Charts / Weather

South America 10-day GEFS Total Accumulated Precipitation, in millimeters, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

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1-30 End of Day: Wheat Extends Winning Streak, Defying Corn and Soybean Weakness

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Prices fell on technical selling and month-end positioning as March futures failed to break the $5 mark.

  • Soybeans: Dropped sharply after failing to push through resistance, pressured by weak export sales and a steep decline in soybean meal. Soybean oil remained steady.

  • Wheat: Managed to close higher across all three classes, bucking the broader grain market trend, as U.S. and Russian weather concerns continued to support prices.

  • To see the updated U.S. drought monitor as well as the 3-month drought monitor and soybean production maps for South America scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Sales Target Range: Yesterday the March ‘25 contract surged to new highs, closing just within the lower end of the 495 to 515 target range. Given that strong finish — just half a cent shy of the session high — Grain Market Insider is holding off on a sales recommendation for now, allowing for the chance at the upper end of the target range.

  • Highest Close: Yesterday’s close marks the highest settlement for front-month corn since October 19, 2023, reinforcing the recent upward momentum.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart stands between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50 — historical levels that could challenge further upside.

2025 Crop: 

  • Opportunity: Yesterday’s close above 465.50 resistance opens the door for the next upside target in the 470-480 range for the December ‘25 contract.

  • Downside Support: Key support for December ‘25 sits at 453.75, a level to watch for the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential heading into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break above the 479 resistance, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge for existing sales while keeping you positioned for any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 3–5 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Sellers stepped back into the corn market on Thursday as prices suffered moderate losses. Technical selling pressured the market with month-end positioning as March corn failed to push the $5 level.

  • Going into the Thursday session, the corn market was in an overbought condition as hedge funds were holding a near record long position. With selling pressure in the soybean market, corn futures were pressured lower.

  • USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending January 23, new corn sales totaled 1.359 MMT (53.5 mb). This total was toward the upper end of expectations but down 18% from last week.  Total corn commitments remain strong, still trending 28% ahead of last year’s pace.

  • Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated 78% of the crop as good/normal, down 2% from last week, while poor ratings rose to 22% despite recent moisture improvements.

Corn Uptrend Well Supported
Fund buying and strong demand have sustained the corn market’s uptrend since harvest. Initial support is at 475, with additional support near the breakout area around 450. Overhead resistance is now just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently made a recommendation to sell another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Bulls vs. Bears – The Battle at 1060: Soybean bulls and bears continue to slug it out in the March ‘25 contract around the 1060 level. The 1060 – 1080 zone — a key resistance range Grain Market Insider has been watching — remains the battleground.  The big question: Who will win? If the bulls manage to push prices above 1080, the next upside target would be 1150. But if the bears take control, the first downside risk is a retreat toward 1000.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have aggressively covered short positions and shifted to a net-long stance on soybeans. This shift reinforces the idea that now remains an opportune time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

  • First Sale Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recommended initiating 2025 soybean sales yesterday, as the November ‘25 contract closed at a fresh high of 1063.50.  Since last Wednesday, November ‘25 has gained approximately 16 cents, yet the March ‘25 / November ‘25 spread has flipped from an 18-cent inversion to a 3-cent carry. With this spread trending bearish and significant resistance looming near 1070, now looks like a strategic opportunity to start locking in new crop sales.  Especially as Grain Market Insider is prepared to quickly recommend reowning this sale with call options if needed.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly lower meeting resistance at $10.60 in March yesterday and were unable to break that level again today. Export sales were disappointing today, which pressured prices, and lower soybean meal added to that pressure losing $5.10 in March. Soybean oil was relatively unchanged to slightly higher.

  • The USDA announced weekly export sales on Thursday morning.  For the week ending January 23, new soybean sales totaled 438,000 MT (16.1 mb). This was below market expectations and down 71% from last week’s totals.

  • Despite seeing scattered rainfall last week, Argentina crop ratings did not improve.  According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, The Argentina soybean crop was 72% good/normal and 28% poor. The poor category was unchanged from last week.

  • With U.S. tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada set to take effect this weekend, concerns over potential trade retaliations threaten future soybean exports.

Soybeans Face Long-Term Resistance
Front-month soybeans hit resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level capping gains for over 18 months. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies at the 200-day and recent highs around 1060. A weekly close above 1060 could pave the way for a test of the 1100 level.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with modest gains, as there is continued concern about winterkill in both the US and Russia. Also offering support today was a higher close for Matif wheat futures, a slight drop in the US Dollar, and reports that there were new Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian grain storage facilities.

  • Weekly wheat export sales totaled 16.8 mb for 24/25 and 0.9 mb for 25/26, while shipments of 21.6 mb exceeded the 19.5 mb/week pace needed to reach USDA’s 850 mb target. Total commitments for 24/25 are now at 667 mb, up 8% from last year.

  • SovEcon lowered its Russian wheat export forecast from 43.7 mmt to 42.8 mmt, citing upcoming export quotas starting Feb. 15. Meanwhile, Russia’s ag ministry reports 82% of the winter wheat crop is in good to satisfactory condition, though weather remains a risk.

  • February temperatures in India are expected to be above average, potentially reducing wheat yields. If production drops significantly, India — normally a self-sufficient wheat consumer — could become a net importer, a bullish factor for global wheat markets.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: Grain Market Insider maintains a target range of 680–705 for March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: So far, three sales recommendations have been issued for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two earlier recommendations. If you’re behind on sales, this range presents a solid opportunity for a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding. While actionable targets remain out of reach, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stays Rangebound
Front-month Chicago wheat remains confined between 530 and 577. A breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could prompt a retest of 617, while a close below 536 may lead to a decline toward the 521–514 support range.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range for selling more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop remains 650–700 vs. March ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued just two sales recommendations so far, reflecting last year’s significant yield uncertainty and limited post-harvest opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged around 719 vs. July ’24 futures. A sale within the next target range will lower this average, but upside opportunity expectations remain modest for now.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold. While actionable targets are still a way off, these options have about five months remaining until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Maintains Range
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with initial resistance near the 100-day moving average at 568. A close above 583 could pave the way for a move toward 600, while a close below 536 risks a decline to 525.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Sales Target Range: The initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop is a rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25. That said, keep in mind that the near-record short position held by the Funds could lead Grain Market Insider to adjust this target range higher as price action develops.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding them. While actionable targets remain distant, these options have about five months left until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Holds Range
Minneapolis wheat remains rangebound between 585 and 613. A breakout above 613 could spark a rally toward 655, with interim resistance at 624 and 637. Conversely, a close below 585 may trigger a decline toward November lows near 568.

Other Charts / Weather

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1-29 End of Day: Buying Interest on Weather Worries Drives Grains Higher Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Strong buying lifted corn futures on Wednesday, with the March contract posting its highest close since May 28 as money flowed into the grain markets.

  • Renewed concerns with South American weather drove soybean prices back near their recent highs. Soybean meal led the gains in soybeans today while soybean oil slipped slightly lower.  

  • Wheat futures surged with double-digit gains across all three classes, supported by strength in corn, soybeans, and Matif wheat.

  • To see the updated 7-day U.S. precipitation forecast as well as the week two South American precipitation forecast scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Sales Target Range: The March ‘25 contract surged to new highs, closing just within the lower end of the 495 to 515 target range. Given today’s strong finish — just half a cent shy of the session high — Grain Market Insider is holding off on a sales recommendation for now, allowing for the chance at the upper end of the target range.

  • Highest Close: Today’s close marks the highest settlement for front-month corn since October 19, 2023, reinforcing the recent upward momentum.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart stands between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50 — historical levels that could challenge further upside.

2025 Crop: 

  • Opportunity: Today’s close above 465.50 resistance opens the door for the next upside target in the 470-480 range for the December ‘25 contract.

  • Downside Support: Key support for December ‘25 sits at 453.75, a level to watch for the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential heading into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break above the 479 resistance, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge for existing sales while keeping you positioned for any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 3–5 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong buying moved into the grain markets on Wednesday, and that supported corn futures’ strong gains on the session. Corn futures contract broke to new nearby highs as money flowed into the grain markets. The March corn contract posted its highest close since May 28.

  • Weekly ethanol production fell 7.6% to 1.015 million barrels/day but remains 2.4% above year-ago levels. The weekly grind used 102.4 mb of corn, slightly below the pace needed for USDA targets.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for new sales to range from 850,000 – 1.8 MMT. As U.S. corn is still very competitive in the global export market.  Last week, sales were 1.660 MMT.

  • Corn eased from session highs as President Trump reaffirmed a Feb. 1 deadline for potential tariffs on Mexico and Canada, raising concerns over retaliatory measures from Mexico, the top U.S. corn buyer.

  • Weather forecast for central Brazil look to stay on the wetter side. Additional rainfall may limit soybean harvest pace, which would slow the planting pace of the key second crop Brazil corn. The second crop Brazil corn is the main crop that competes against U.S. bushels on the export market.

Corn Uptrend Well Supported
Fund buying and strong demand have sustained the corn market’s uptrend since harvest. Initial support is at 475, with additional support near the breakout area around 450. Overhead resistance is now just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Bulls vs. Bears – The Battle at 1060: Soybean bulls and bears continue to slug it out in the March ‘25 contract around the 1060 level. The 1060 – 1080 zone — a key resistance range Grain Market Insider has been watching — remains the battleground. Today’s session ended in a stalemate, with March ‘25 settling at the lower edge of that range at 1060.50.  The big question: Who will win? If the bulls manage to push prices above 1080, the next upside target would be 1150. But if the bears take control, the first downside risk is a retreat toward 1000.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have aggressively covered short positions and shifted to a net-long stance on soybeans. This shift reinforces the idea that now remains an opportune time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

  • First Sale Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recommends initiating 2025 soybean sales today, as the November ‘25 contract closed at a fresh high of 1063.50.  Since last Wednesday, November ‘25 has gained approximately 16 cents, yet the March ‘25 / November ‘25 spread has flipped from an 18-cent inversion to a 3-cent carry. With this spread trending bearish and significant resistance looming near 1070, now looks like a strategic opportunity to start locking in new crop sales.  Especially as Grain Market Insider is prepared to quickly recommend reowning this sale with call options if needed.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher, with March futures targeting the 200-day moving average at $10.73. Strength came from a sharp rally in soybean meal due to Argentine crop concerns, while soybean oil ended lower.

  • The U.S. export window to China is closing unless President Trump can convince China to agree to Phase 1 purchase obligations. China is on a holiday through most of next week which could cause some delays in negotiations.

  • In Argentina, just 20% of the soybean crop is setting/filling pods, and adequate soil moisture levels have fallen from 81.1% to 54.8 since the beginning of the year. Recent rains are expected to improve conditions.

  • A Brazilian port found 51 cargoes of soybean meal contaminated with sand during inspections. This follows China rejecting multiple soybean shipments over phytosanitary concerns.

Soybeans Face Long-Term Resistance
Front-month soybeans hit resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level capping gains for over 18 months. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies at the 200-day and recent highs around 1060. A weekly close above 1060 could pave the way for a test of the 1100 level.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat market closed sharply higher with double-digit gains across all three classes. Higher corn and soybeans, as well as higher Matif wheat futures both played a part in boosting US wheat. Funds likely covered short positions amid concerns over Russian winterkill.

  • Following Argentina’s export tax cut, its FOB wheat prices are now $11/MT below Russia’s $225/MT offers. Increased Argentine exports could cap upside potential for U.S. wheat.

  • This afternoon, the Federal Reserve announced no change to interest rates, as inflation remains elevated. This was largely in line with expectations, and at the time of writing the US Dollar Index is only slightly higher for the day.

  • According to the European Commission, EU 24/25 soft wheat exports as of January 26 have reached 12.18 mmt since the season began in July. This falls well below the 19.35 mmt shipped for the same timeframe last year.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: Grain Market Insider maintains a target range of 680–705 for March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: So far, three sales recommendations have been issued for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two earlier recommendations. If you’re behind on sales, this range presents a solid opportunity for a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding. While actionable targets remain out of reach, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stays Rangebound
Front-month Chicago wheat remains confined between 530 and 577. A breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could prompt a retest of 617, while a close below 536 may lead to a decline toward the 521–514 support range.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range for selling more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop remains 650–700 vs. March ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued just two sales recommendations so far, reflecting last year’s significant yield uncertainty and limited post-harvest opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged around 719 vs. July ’24 futures. A sale within the next target range will lower this average, but upside opportunity expectations remain modest for now.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold. While actionable targets are still a way off, these options have about five months remaining until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Maintains Range
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with initial resistance near the 100-day moving average at 568. A close above 583 could pave the way for a move toward 600, while a close below 536 risks a decline to 525.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Sales Target Range: The initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop is a rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25. That said, keep in mind that the near-record short position held by the Funds could lead Grain Market Insider to adjust this target range higher as price action develops.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding them. While actionable targets remain distant, these options have about five months left until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Holds Range
Minneapolis wheat remains rangebound between 585 and 613. A breakout above 613 could spark a rally toward 655, with interim resistance at 624 and 637. Conversely, a close below 585 may trigger a decline toward November lows near 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil and N. Argentina week two forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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1-28 End of Day: Wheat Leads the Grain Complex Higher Tuesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Continued strong demand for U.S. corn pushed prices higher Tuesday, erasing Monday’s losses.

  • Soybeans finished mixed, with March futures unchanged and deferred contracts higher. The bean products corrected slightly after yesterday’s sell-off, with soybean meal and oil closing modestly higher.

  • Wheat futures added double digits on Tuesday, backed by stronger European wheat futures and weather worries in the Black Sea region.

  • To see the updated 5-day GFS precipitation forecast for South America as well as the 8–14-day US temperature and precipitation outlooks scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Sales Target Range: Eyeing the 495 to 515 range for the March ’25 contract.

  • Modest Weekly Gain: Following two strong weekly gains totaling 33 cents, the March ’25 contract managed a modest two-cent uptick last week, closing slightly higher overall.

  • Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, key resistance lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • March ’25 Contract Levels: Last week, the March ’25 contract revisited the 487–508 range—where Grain Market Insider issued its first three sales recommendations for the 2024 corn crop during summer 2023 and spring 2024. So far, four sales recommendations have been made for the 2024 crop. If you haven’t acted on all four yet, now is a great time to catch up. Prices rebounded to a high last week of 494.50 vs March ‘25, and despite weakness in the last two trading days, the market remains over 100 cents higher than the August low on the front-month continuous chart.

2025 Crop: 

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • First Resistance: Resistance is now pegged at last week’s high of 465.50. On Thursday, the December ’25 contract managed to break above the October 2024 high of 459.75, but the breakout proved short-lived, with prices closing back below 459.75 today.

  • Downside Risk: A confirmed close above last week’s high of 465.50 would validate the breakout over 459.75. However, failure to sustain momentum above this level increases the likelihood of a false breakout. In that scenario, the market risks returning to range-bound trading, with support at the lower end of the range near 428.00.

  • Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract succeeds in rallying above 465.50, a test of the next major resistance area of 480 should be an easy task. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.

  • Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to underpin the market. However, higher prices could incentivize increased U.S. planted acreage for the 2025 crop, potentially adding headwinds.

  • Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 3–5 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Buyers returned to the corn market on Tuesday as buying strength across the grain markets helped push corn prices moderately higher. The strong demand tone continues to help support the old crop side of the market.

  • The USDA reported a flash sale of 132,000 MT (5.2 mb) of U.S. corn to South Korea for the current marketing year, marking the fourth consecutive day of announced export sales.

  • Corn prices eased from session highs after President Trump reiterated a February 1 deadline for potential tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Concerns over counter-tariffs linger as Mexico remains the largest buyer of U.S. corn.

  • Afternoon forecasts show the potential for rain fall for central Brazil. Additional rainfall may limit soybean harvest pace, which would slow the planting pace of the key second crop Brazil corn. The second crop Brazil corn is the main crop that competes against U.S. bushels on the export market.

Corn Uptrend Well Supported
Fund buying and strong demand have sustained the corn market’s uptrend since harvest. Initial support is at 475, with additional support near the breakout area around 450. Overhead resistance is now just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Sales Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract pushed further into the 1060–1080 target range last week, reaching an intraweek high of 1073.50. However, the gains proved short-lived, with the contract closing below the January 14th high of 1064. Out of three trading days spent in the 1060–1080 range, two ended with bearish reversals, closing below 1060. This highlights the strength of the 1060–1080 range as a key resistance area, which factored prominently into last week’s sales recommendation.

  • From the Lows: Despite recent softening, the March ’25 contract is still up roughly one dollar from its December low of 947.00. This remains a solid rally and a valuable opportunity to act if you haven’t already.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have aggressively covered short positions and shifted to a net-long stance on soybeans. This shift reinforces the idea that now remains an opportune time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day mixed with the front month March unchanged but the deferred contracts higher. Futures were likely correcting yesterday’s sell-off slightly as little has changed fundamentally. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day slightly higher.

  • The Brazilian soybean harvest is reportedly the slowest since the 20/21 harvest. Parana has been leading the country in progress, but Mato Grosso and other states are still delayed although there have been reductions in rainfall projections.

  • In Argentina, just 20% of the soybean crop is setting/filling pods, and adequate soil moisture levels have fallen from 81.1% to 54.8 since the beginning of the year. Recent rains are expected to improve conditions.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections at 729k tons which compared to 979k last week and 913k the previous year. The majority of the soybeans are headed to China followed by Turkey.

Soybeans Face Long-Term Resistance
Front-month soybeans hit resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level capping gains for over 18 months. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies at the 200-day and recent highs around 1060. A weekly close above 1060 could pave the way for a test of the 1100 level.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat made modest gains in all three classes today, despite the move higher for the US Dollar. Support came from a rebound in Paris milling wheat futures, as well as talk that warm weather in the Black Sea region could cause wheat to come out of dormancy too soon.

  • The Russian Grain Union projects 2024/25 grain exports may fall below 50 MMT due to weather issues and reduced production, with wheat accounting for 41–42 MMT. SovEcon estimates January wheat exports at 2.1 MMT, the lowest since 2017.

  • Secex data shows Brazil’s daily average wheat imports for January 2025 at 34.4K MT, up 23.3% year-over-year. Total imports through January 20 reached 412.8K MT, compared to 614K MT for all of January 2024.

  • The US ag attaché to Argentina is estimating their wheat crop at 18.1 mmt, which is above the USDA’s guess of 17.5 mmt. Additionally, Argentina’s wheat export volume may increase, as their government’s recently announced export tax reduction began today.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: Grain Market Insider maintains a target range of 680–705 for March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: So far, three sales recommendations have been issued for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two earlier recommendations. If you’re behind on sales, this range presents a solid opportunity for a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding. While actionable targets remain out of reach, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stays Rangebound
Front-month Chicago wheat remains confined between 530 and 577. A breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could prompt a retest of 617, while a close below 536 may lead to a decline toward the 521–514 support range.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range for selling more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop remains 650–700 vs. March ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued just two sales recommendations so far, reflecting last year’s significant yield uncertainty and limited post-harvest opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged around 719 vs. July ’24 futures. A sale within the next target range will lower this average, but upside opportunity expectations remain modest for now.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold. While actionable targets are still a way off, these options have about five months remaining until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Maintains Range
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with initial resistance near the 100-day moving average at 568. A close above 583 could pave the way for a move toward 600, while a close below 536 risks a decline to 525.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Sales Target Range: The initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop is a rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25. That said, keep in mind that the near-record short position held by the Funds could lead Grain Market Insider to adjust this target range higher as price action develops.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding them. While actionable targets remain distant, these options have about five months left until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Holds Range
Minneapolis wheat remains rangebound between 585 and 613. A breakout above 613 could spark a rally toward 655, with interim resistance at 624 and 637. Conversely, a close below 585 may trigger a decline toward November lows near 568.

Other Charts / Weather

South America 5-day GFS Total Accumulated Precipitation forecast, in millimeters, courtesy of NOAA.

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1-27 End of Day: Grains Start the Week Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures ended lower on Monday following other grains lower despite a daily flash sale of corn to Mexico.

  • Soybeans finished lower Monday after failing at upside resistance last week. Better than expected rains for Argentina over the weekend pressured the entire bean complex with soybean meal posting the largest losses.

  • Wheat futures started the week off on the wrong foot following losses in corn and soybeans. Monday appeared to be a “risk-off” day across all markets as stocks futures fell hard along with most commodities.

  • To see the updated U.S. and South America 7-day precipitation forecasts as well as the 30-day percent of normal precipitation map for South America scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Sales Target Range: Eyeing the 495 to 515 range for the March ’25 contract.

  • Modest Weekly Gain: Following two strong weekly gains totaling 33 cents, the March ’25 contract managed a modest two-cent uptick last week, closing slightly higher overall.

  • Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, key resistance lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • March ’25 Contract Levels: Last week, the March ’25 contract revisited the 487–508 range—where Grain Market Insider issued its first three sales recommendations for the 2024 corn crop during summer 2023 and spring 2024. So far, four sales recommendations have been made for the 2024 crop. If you haven’t acted on all four yet, now is a great time to catch up. Prices rebounded to a high last week of 494.50 vs March ‘25, and despite weakness in the last two trading days, the market remains over 100 cents higher than the August low on the front-month continuous chart.

2025 Crop: 

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • First Resistance: Resistance is now pegged at last week’s high of 465.50. On Thursday, the December ’25 contract managed to break above the October 2024 high of 459.75, but the breakout proved short-lived, with prices closing back below 459.75 today.

  • Downside Risk: A confirmed close above last week’s high of 465.50 would validate the breakout over 459.75. However, failure to sustain momentum above this level increases the likelihood of a false breakout. In that scenario, the market risks returning to range-bound trading, with support at the lower end of the range near 428.00.

  • Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract succeeds in rallying above 465.50, a test of the next major resistance area of 480 should be an easy task. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.

  • Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to underpin the market. However, higher prices could incentivize increased U.S. planted acreage for the 2025 crop, potentially adding headwinds.

  • Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 3–5 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended Monday lower, pressured by weakness in other grains. The March contract closed 12 cents below its recent high, marking its second consecutive session of losses as upward momentum stalled.

  • Better-than-expected weekend rains in Argentina weighed on corn and soybean markets. Forecasts for February also look favorable for crop production in areas previously stressed by heat and dryness.

  • Demand remains robust, with the USDA reporting a flash sale of 139,000 MT (5.5 mb) of corn to Mexico for the current marketing year. Weekly export inspections reached 1.247 MMT (49.1 mb), 31% ahead of last year and trending above USDA export targets.

  • The key second corn crop planting pace in Brazil is behind expectations as approximately 2.2% of the crop was planted as of last week. Though still early, a later planting window could push the crop’s finishing point past a key time window closer to maturity and possibly limit production.

  • Managed hedge funds continue to grow their long position in the corn market, adding nearly 20,000 net long contracts to a total position of 311,678 net long contracts. This is the fourth most bullish position ever held for this date.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 470, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Larger overhead resistance now comes in just below 500.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 19,450 contracts between January 14 – January 21, bringing their total position to a net long 311,678 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Sales Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract pushed further into the 1060–1080 target range last week, reaching an intraweek high of 1073.50. However, the gains proved short-lived, with the contract closing below the January 14th high of 1064. Out of three trading days spent in the 1060–1080 range, two ended with bearish reversals, closing below 1060. This highlights the strength of the 1060–1080 range as a key resistance area, which factored prominently into last week’s sales recommendation.

  • From the Lows: Despite recent softening, the March ’25 contract is still up roughly one dollar from its December low of 947.00. This remains a solid rally and a valuable opportunity to act if you haven’t already.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have aggressively covered short positions and shifted to a net-long stance on soybeans. This shift reinforces the idea that now remains an opportune time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the second consecutive session after March futures failed to hold above the 200-day moving average last week. Long liquidation by funds may have followed a weekend of uncertainty, with President Trump briefly imposing and rescinding tariffs on Colombia, creating a bearish sentiment for grains.

  • Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower with meal picking up the larger losses. Rains fell over Argentina this weekend, which was sorely needed, but soybean oil may be under pressure from the 45z tax credits that may not be implemented.

  • While Argentina has received needed rain, Brazil continues to rain through what should be the start of harvest. The country is reportedly just 4% completed with harvest compared to the average of 13% for this time of year. Rain is forecast to continue over the next 15 days.

  • Friday’s CFTC saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 5,497 contracts as of January 21. This left them with a net long position of 40,330 contracts. Since that day, they are estimated to have sold approximately 2,000 contracts.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,497 contracts between January 14 – January 21, bringing their total position to a netlong40,330 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted losses alongside the broader grain complex as markets turned risk-averse. Weakness was tied to a sharp selloff in tech stocks, with the NASDAQ down over 700 points. The drop followed news of Chinese AI company DeepSeek releasing a cheaper, more efficient model, raising concerns about the valuation of U.S. AI firms.

  • Weekly wheat inspections totaled 17.8 million bushels, bringing the 2024/25 season total to 506 million bushels, up 25% year-over-year. Inspections remain ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA’s export estimate of 850 million bushels, which is 20% higher than last year.

  • The Commodity Weather Group estimates up to 15% of the U.S. winter wheat crop may have been killed by recent sub-freezing temperatures. Areas with little to no snow cover were hit hardest, with 65% of HRW and 35% of SRW regions reportedly affected.

  • Ukraine’s agriculture ministry has indicated that their country intends to plant 11.1 million hectares of grain for 2025, which is in line with last year. Of that total, winter grains (which will consist mostly of wheat) are expected to reach 5.2 million hectares.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: Grain Market Insider continues to target 680–705 vs. March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Three sales recommendations have been made so far for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two previous recommendations. If you are behind on sales, this range offers a good opportunity to make a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The next target range for a sale is 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has taken a slightly more aggressive approach with sales for the 2025 crop, leveraging market carry during the overall downtrend from the October high. The average price of the four sales made so far vs. July ’25 is approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would increase that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider has recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • Next Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop is 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: The growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to the July ’25 contract make the July ’26 contract an early opportunity to monitor closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,601 contracts between January 14 – January 21, bringing their total position to a net short 91,792 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: 650 – 700 vs. March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued only two sales recommendations to date, reflecting the significant yield uncertainty before last year’s harvest and the limited post-harvest sales opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged approximately 719 vs. the July ’24 futures. A sale at the next target range will reduce the average, but upside expectations remain tempered for now

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 640 – 665 range vs. July ‘25 to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,475 contracts between January 14 – January 21, bringing their total position to a net short 35,131 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Target Range: A rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25 is the initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop. However, the near-record short position held by Funds suggests that this target range could adjust higher as future price action unfolds.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 700 – 750 is the target range vs September ‘25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,134 contracts between January 14 – January 21, bringing their total position to a net short 27,164 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

South America 30-day precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center.

Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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01-24 End of Day: Lower Export Taxes for Argentina Pressure Grains Friday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Strong export sales were overpowered by fund profit taking as corn futures slipped lower to end the week.

  • Argentina’s announcement of lower export taxes along with an improved weather outlook for much of South America pressured soybean futures on Friday.

  • Disappointing export sales and weakness in corn and soybean futures pressured wheat to end the week.

  • To see the one-week GFS precipitation forecast for South America as well as the January precipitation ranks by climate district for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Target Range: 495 to 515 for the March ’25 contract.

  • Modest Weekly Gain: After two strong weekly gains totaling 33 cents, the March ’25 contract eked out a modest two-cent increase this week, closing slightly higher overall.

  • Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, the next resistance range lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • March ’25 Contract Levels: The March ’25 contract has returned to the 487–508 price range, where Grain Market Insider issued its first three sales recommendations for the 2024 corn crop in summer 2023 and spring 2024. To date, four total sales recommendations have been made for the 2024 crop. If you have not yet made all four sales, now is an excellent time to catch up, with prices rebounding to these recommended levels and the market up over 100 cents from the August low on the front-month continuous chart.

2025 Crop: 

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • First Resistance: Resistance remains at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract.

  • Downside Risk: Failure to rally over 459.75 poses the risk of range-bound trading, with the bottom end of the range at 428.00.

  • Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract eventually succeeds in rallying above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.

  • Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 4–6 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market traded lower to end the week despite another strong week of export sales. End of week profit taking and a cut of export taxes in Argentina weighed on the market.

  • The Argentina government announced an export tax cut on agriculture commodities to help support producers in the South American country. Corn export taxes will be reduced from 12% to 9.5% until the end of June. This cut lowers export prices, and stimulates additional producer selling of grains, providing competition for U.S. export business.

  • For the week ending January 16, corn export sales reached 1.661 MMT (65.4 mb), coming in at the high end of expectations with South Korea as the primary buyer. Total sales are 29% above last year and running ahead of the pace needed to meet the current USDA target.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its corn crop projection for this year by 1 MMT this week, citing impacts from hot and dry weather which are limiting crop potential.

  • South American weather will stay a driver in the grain markets going into next week’s trade. Forecasts still look improved for Argentina and Southern Brazil, but recent weather has still been less than ideal. Sunday night trade will likely be influenced by the weekend weather.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 470, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Larger overhead resistance now comes in just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract advanced further into the 1060–1080 target range, hitting an intraday high of 1073.50 today. However, the early gains couldn’t hold, and March closed below the 1/14 high of 1064. Out of the three trading days within this range, two have shown bearish reversals, closing back under 1060. This reinforces the strength of the 1060–1080 range as a significant resistance area, which played a key role in today’s sales recommendation.

  • From the Lows: The March ‘25 contract remains up over one dollar from its December low of 947.00, marking this as a solid rally worth capitalizing on.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have covered a significant number of short positions and are now net-long soybeans, further supporting the idea that now is an ideal time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower giving back all of yesterday’s gains in the March contract. Yesterday, prices failed at resistance at the 200-day moving average near $10.75. Soybean meal led the way lower as Argentine exports are expected to increase, while soybean oil was slightly higher.

  • Yesterday evening, the Argentine government announced that it would cut export taxes on all grains in order to bolster the domestic farming economy. Traders likely see Argentina exports increasing due to this, but weather has improved in the country as well.

  • Today’s export sales report was within trade expectations at 54.8 million bushels for 24/25 and 33.1 tb for 25/26. This was up noticeably from the previous week and the 4-week average. Primary destinations were to China, Japan, and Mexico. Last week’s export shipments of 38.0 mb were above the 20.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

  • For the week, March soybeans gained 21-3/4 cents while November gained 21 cents. March soybean meal gained $7.70 while March soybean oil lost 47 cents.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite a drop in the U.S. Dollar Index, wheat prices fell due to weak corn and soybean markets, poor export sales, and a decline in Paris milling wheat futures.

  • Overnight Argentina cut wheat export tax to 9.5% from 12% for the next five months. It was also reported late this week that Russia reduced its wheat tax to 4,430 Rubles/mt, down 5.7%. Historically, reduced export taxes boost farmer selling.

  • The USDA reported an increase of only 6.1 mb of wheat exports sales for 24/25, and an increase of 1.9 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 7.4 mb also fell below the 18.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 850 mb. Wheat sales commitments stand at 650 mb, up 7% from last year.

  • According to their agriculture ministry, since the season began on July 1 Ukraine’s total grain exports have reached 24.7 mmt, which is up 11% year over year. Wheat shipments specifically have hit 10.6 mmt, which is up 21% year over year.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: Grain Market Insider continues to target 680–705 vs. March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Three sales recommendations have been made so far for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two previous recommendations. If you are behind on sales, this range offers a good opportunity to make a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The next target range for a sale is 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has taken a slightly more aggressive approach with sales for the 2025 crop, leveraging market carry during the overall downtrend from the October high. The average price of the four sales made so far vs. July ’25 is approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would increase that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider has recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • Next Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop is 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: The growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to the July ’25 contract make the July ’26 contract an early opportunity to monitor closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: 650 – 700 vs. March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued only two sales recommendations to date, reflecting the significant yield uncertainty before last year’s harvest and the limited post-harvest sales opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged approximately 719 vs. the July ’24 futures. A sale at the next target range will reduce the average, but upside expectations remain tempered for now

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 640 – 665 range vs. July ‘25 to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Target Range: A rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25 is the initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop. However, the near-record short position held by Funds suggests that this target range could adjust higher as future price action unfolds.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 700 – 750 is the target range vs September ‘25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

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