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3-28 End of Day: Grains End the Week Mixed Ahead of Monday’s USDA Plantings Intentions Report

ByLisa Heder

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn markets ended the week’s trade mixed, with new crop prices remaining under pressure due to expectations of a significant increase in corn acreage for the upcoming crop year.

  • Soybeans: Soybean prices rebounded from early-day lows to close higher for the second consecutive session, as traders anticipate the USDA’s upcoming planting intentions report on Monday.

  • Wheat: Wheat continued its downward trend today, posting losses across all classes, as weakness was attributed to the forecasted rain in the coming days.

  • To see the updated monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks from the CPC as well as the 8-10 day precipitation anomaly and 5-10 day average temperature anomaly for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • In Holding Pattern: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year. Still no active targets going into Monday.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • All Eyes on Monday: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports — typically one of the most volatile report days of the year. The upside call exit target is out of reach for Monday, but the put exit target could come into play if the December contract locked the 30-cent limit down.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • No Targets: No new or active targets at this time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The front end of the corn market saw some short covering and potential value buying to close out Friday’s session, with corn futures ending mixed. New crop prices remained under pressure due to expectations that the USDA’s prospective planting report will forecast a significant increase in planted acres for the upcoming spring planting season. For the week, May corn futures finished 11 cents lower.

  • USDA will release the Prospective Plantings report on Monday, March 31. Expectations for corn acres are to be near 94.36 million acres, up nearly 3.8 million acres from last year. The analyst range is wide from 92.5-96.6 million acres. The prospect of an exceptionally large acreage forecast is limiting the new crop corn market in anticipation of Monday’s report. 

  • The USDA will also release the March 1 Grain Stocks report on Monday, with expectations for total corn stocks to be around 8.151 bb. This would represent a decrease of nearly 200 mb from last year’s report, although demand remained strong during the quarter. One area of uncertainty could be feed usage, as lower numbers of cattle, hogs, and poultry, along with favorable feed wheat prices, may have limited corn usage for feed during the quarter.

  • Besides Monday’s report, the grain markets will be watch and development of trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico as the deadline for the April 2 extension nears. Mexico remains the largest buyer of US corn on the export market.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline — potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Eyes Ahead: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports — historically one of the most volatile report days of the year. A limit move in soybeans is 70 cents, so in the event of a bullish surprise, the 1079.75 call target could come into play.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Countdown to USDA: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.  Both upside targets remain out of reach, even in the event of an extremely bullish report.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: It will be at least another 1–2 months before the first targets or recommendations are likely to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher for the second consecutive day, recovering from early morning lows as traders seem to be factoring in a lower acreage figure in anticipation of Monday’s Planting Intentions report. Soybean oil led the rally within the complex, driven by President Trump’s endorsement of a new biofuel policy, while soybean meal ended the day lower.

  • Estimates for the planting intentions report on Monday see soybean acreage coming in at 83.8 million acres with a range between 82.5 and 85.5 ma. This would compare to the Outlook Forum’s guess of 84.0 ma and last year’s plantings of 87.1 ma.

  • For the week, May soybeans gained 13-1/4 cents while November soybeans gained 21-1/4. The deferred months saw larger gains due to the expected decline in planted acres. May soybean meal lost $6.80 on the week finishing at $293.50 while May soybean oil gained 3.15 cents to 45.16 cents, the highest level since the end of February.

  • U.S. soybean export demand has been on a downward trend, largely due to the abundant supply of soybeans coming out of Brazil. Brazil’s soybean exports for March are expected to reach 15.6 mmt more than 2 mmt higher than the same period last year.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted losses across all classes, with Kansas City futures leading the decline. The weakness was driven by an increased precipitation forecast, particularly with the European weather model predicting significant rainfall in the U.S. Southern Plains next week.

  • According to the European Commission, 25/26 grain production in the EU is forecast at 280.7 mmt, which would be 10% above the 24/25 season. That is also about 3% over the five-year average. Soft wheat is estimated at 126.5 mmt for next season, which is 13% above the current season.

  •  The Russian deputy ag minister has stated that their nation harvested 129.8 mmt of grain in 2024, according to data from Rosstat. He went on to say that despite last year’s unfavorable weather, it was a decent harvest.

  • The average pre-report estimates for wheat acreage, based on a Dow Jones survey, comes in at 46.4 million acres. This would be up 300,000 acres from 2024. When broken down by class, it would be 33.9 ma of winter wheat, 10.5 ma of spring wheat, and 2.1 ma of durum wheat. As far as stocks go, the average pre-report estimate is 1.22 bb as of March 1 – this would be up 12% versus 2024.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Brace for Impact: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Steady as She Goes: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 704 hits. This applies to Plan B.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Strap In: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Buckle Up for Monday: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Waiting Game: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Mission – Sit Tight: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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3-27 End of Day: Soybeans Close Higher, While Corn and Wheat Trend Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Despite a positive export sales report, the corn market ended the trading day lower, continuing to face pressure from large acreage projections for the spring.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed higher today, driven by a surge in soybean oil, which provided support to the entire soy complex.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures closed mixed today as weather forecasts improved for the Black Sea region and U.S. Plains, with an increased chance of precipitation.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue targeting 480 vs May as the first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the overall strategy. There are still no new targets for an eighth sales recommendation on the 2024 crop. With the typically volatile Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports coming out next Monday, Grain Market Insider will likely hold off on new recommendations until after the reports — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue targeting 462 vs December as the first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the overall strategy for new crop corn. The approach remains well-balanced between the sales recommendations, the open 420 put options, and the open 510/550 call options. Bring on the March 31 reports!

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • No Targets: No new or active targets at this time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure persisted in the corn market despite a supportive export sales report, as large acreage projections continue to weigh on the market. May corn recorded its lowest close since December 19 during the session.

  • For the week, sellers have been in control of the corn market as the momentum has triggered follow-through selling and long liquidation. Going into Friday’s session, May corn is trading 14 ¼ cents lower on the week.

  • USDA release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending March 20, exporters reported new sales of 1.040 MMT (40.9 mb). Japan was the largest buyer of US corn for the week. Total corn export sales for the current marketing year are up 24% from last year and ahead of pace to reach the USDA target for the marketing year.

  • USDA will release the Prospective Plantings report on Monday March 31. Expectations for corn acres are to be near 94.36 million acres, up nearly 3.8 million acres from last year. The market is hearing talk of a “whisper” number that could reach as high as 96 million acres. The prospect of an exceptionally large acreage forecast is limiting the corn market in anticipation of Monday’s report.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline — potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue to target 1056 vs May as a first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week. 

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, continue targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: It will be at least another 1–2 months before the first targets or recommendations are likely to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The entire soy complex closed higher in Thursday’s trading session, breaking through nearby resistance levels. Soybean oil futures surged for the fourth consecutive day, driven by optimism surrounding biodiesel blending, which provided strong support to the soybean market.

  • U.S. soybean export demand has been on a downward trend, largely due to the abundant supply of soybeans coming out of Brazil. Brazil’s soybean exports for March are expected to reach 15.6 mmt more than 2 mmt higher than the same period last year.

  • South American weather is expected to remain favorable as the growing season wraps up and harvest continues. The soybean harvest in Brazil is now 76% complete, ahead of the average pace by 10% for this time of year.

  • U.S. soybean sales for the week ending March 20th totaled 12.4 million bushels (mb) for the 2024/2025 marketing year, along with a decrease of 800,000 mt for the 2025/2026 marketing year. Shipments reached 33.9 mb, exceeding the 14 mb required to meet the 1.826 bb target. Total soybean commitments now stand at 1.681 bb, up 13% compared to the same period last year.

  • Weather is becoming a growing concern for traders as soybean planting season approaches in the U.S., with 42% of the soybean-growing area currently facing drought conditions.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed in mixed fashion, posting small losses in Chicago futures, with even smaller gains in Kansas City. Paris milling wheat futures also closed down by 3.00 to 3.75 Euros/mt. Weakness seems to have stemmed in large part from forecasts with better chances of rain in both the Black Sea region and the US plains. Weekly export sales were also soft, adding to pressure in the market.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 3.7 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.4 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 15.8 mb, which falls below the 21.7 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA export forecast of 835 mb. Total 24/25 sales commitments have reached 768 mb which is up 12% from last year.

  • According to the USDA, as of March 25, U.S. winter wheat areas saw a significant reduction in drought conditions. Only 14% of winter wheat acres are currently experiencing drought, compared to 34% the previous week. Spring wheat acres in drought also improved during the same period, now estimated at 21%, down from 39% a week ago.

  • According to their ag ministry, Ukrainian grain exports are said to have totaled 32.2 mmt so far this season, which would be a decline of 6% from a year ago. Wheat specifically accounts for 12.9 mmt of exports, but that is down 4.4% year over year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 701 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 714 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 704 hits. This applies to Plan B.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy since yesterday.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy since yesterday.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 677 hits. This applies to Plan B. 

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 625 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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3-26 End of Day: Down Day for Grains Midweek, Ahead of Monday’s USDA Report.

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: The corn market closed lower today, continuing to face pressure due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs, a lack of fresh market news, and positioning ahead of Monday’s USDA report.

  • Soybean: Soybeans ultimately closed mixed as traders await Monday’s USDA planting intentions report.

  • Wheat: Wheat markets ended the day lower across the entire complex, led by a stronger US dollar and a lack of fresh news to provide direction.

  • To see updated 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook maps for the US, along with South Americas 30-day percentage of normal rainfall and 8-14 average precipitation scroll down to the charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue targeting 480 vs May as the first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the overall strategy. There are still no new targets for an eighth sales recommendation on the 2024 crop. With the typically volatile Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports coming out next Monday, Grain Market Insider will likely hold off on new recommendations until after the reports — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue targeting 462 vs December as the first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the overall strategy for new crop corn. The approach remains well-balanced between the sales recommendations, the open 420 put options, and the open 510/550 call options. Bring on the March 31 reports!

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • No Targets: No new or active targets at this time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Downward momentum continued to control the corn market, with prices retreating from early session highs to post moderate losses. The market faced pressure from a lack of fresh news, ongoing concerns about tariffs, and positioning ahead of Monday’s USDA’s data dump.

  • The poor price action and a weak technical close on Wednesday are likely to keep sellers active during the overnight session into Thursday. May corn closed below the 200-day moving average, marking its lowest daily close since December 20.

  • Momentum traders look to be in control of the market based on technical factors. The 20-day moving average crossed under the 100-day moving average, which is an indicator of downward momentum in the corn market.  This triggers traders to keep selling the price jumps in the market for the near-term.

  • Ethanol production fell to 1,053K bpd for the week ending March 21. This was down from 1,105K bpd from last week. Ethanol stocks continue to rise at 27.4 million barrels, up 1.3 million barrels over last year’s levels. It is estimated 100.2 mb of corn was used last week, down from 105.1 mb last week, but still slightly ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA ethanol usage targets.

  • March 31 is the USDA Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report; the market is anticipating grain stocks approximately 200 mb under last year supported by good demand and usage in the quarter. Analysts expect corn acres to jump to 94.36 million acres of corn, up approximately 3.8 million acres versus 2024.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline — potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue to target 1056 vs May as a first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week. 

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, continue targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: It will be at least another 1–2 months before the first targets or recommendations are likely to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the two front months slightly lower and deferred contracts higher in quiet trade ahead of the planting intentions report on Monday. Soybeans have been very rangebound since the beginning of the month with little fresh news. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher.

  • Estimates for the planting intentions report on the 31st say 83.8 million acres of soybeans planted with a range between 82.5 and 85.5 ma. This would compare to the Outlook Forum’s estimate of 84.0 ma and 87.1 ma last year.

  • On Monday, the US Quarterly Grain Stocks will be released as well with soybean stocks estimated to rise to 1.901 billion bushels from 1.845 bb a year ago at this time. Soybean stocks were at 3.100 billion bushels on December 1st.

  • In South America, weather conditions have improved in southern Brazil, where 41% of the soybean crop is reportedly filling pods. Argentina has also received more rain as its crop progresses toward maturity, following a relatively dry season.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Chicago futures led the wheat complex lower today, with a stronger US dollar and a lack of fresh news contributing to the weakness.

  • Discussions of a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine may have added pressure on wheat prices. The Russian government stated that certain conditions must be met first, including the restoration of its state bank’s access to the SWIFT payment system.

  • Pre-report estimates suggest that wheat plantings may be up by 700,000 acres. This is largely due to higher winter wheat seedings, with expectations that spring and durum acres will see little change versus last year. Furthermore, March 1 wheat stocks are anticipated at 1.215 bb, which is up 125 mb from a year ago.

  • According to the European Commission, since the season began on July 1, EU soft wheat exports have reached 15.5 mmt as of March 23. That is down 35% from the 23.7 mmt of exports during the same timeframe last year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 701 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 714 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 704 hits. This applies to Plan B.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy since yesterday.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy since yesterday.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 677 hits. This applies to Plan B. 

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 625 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

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3-25 End of Day: Grains Give Ground

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn prices drifted lower Tuesday, taking cues from a soft wheat market and broader caution across commodities. With big reports and tariff deadlines on the horizon next week, traders seemed content to take some risk off the table. Still, U.S. corn stays attractive on the export front.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures ended the day mixed, with pressure on nearby contracts driven by meal-led weakness and improved crop weather in Argentina, while deferred months held firm amid tightening Brazilian production estimates and anticipation of Monday’s U.S. acreage report.

  • Wheat: Wheat prices dropped for another day, feeling the weight of better U.S. and Black Sea weather, a calmer tone around Black Sea trade, and pressure from weaker corn and soybeans — even as Russian export estimates dipped and crop ratings painted a mixed picture across key U.S. states.

  • To see updated U.S. 0-100 cm Soil Moisture Percentile as well as the 7-day total precipitation map for the US and South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue targeting 480 vs May as the first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the overall strategy. There are still no new targets for an eighth sales recommendation on the 2024 crop. With the typically volatile Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports coming out next Monday, Grain Market Insider will likely hold off on new recommendations until after the reports — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue targeting 462 vs December as the first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the overall strategy for new crop corn. The approach remains well-balanced between the sales recommendations, the open 420 put options, and the open 510/550 call options. Bring on the March 31 reports!

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • No Targets: No new or active targets at this time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw selling pressure on Tuesday as a weak wheat market and an overall risk-off mindset pressured prices lower. May corn posted its lowest daily close since March 5 at the end of the session today.

  • The corn market is still seeing long liquidation possibly preparing for a couple key events next week. On March 31 is the USDA Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report, and April 2is the next deadline date for Canada and Mexico tariffs. In addition, the market is nearing the end of the month and quarter next week, and traders are likely balancing portfolios.

  • With the softening of prices, US corn will stay extremely competitive in the export market until the June/July window. This time window will bring harvested bushels from Argentina and a clearer picture of the Brazil corn crop, which could limit the demand pace.

  • Brazil second crop corn planting is nearing completion, and weather for the most part has been supportive for early season development.

  • On next Monday’s USDA Prospective Planting Report, analyst feel the corn planting could reach 94.4 million acres according to a Bloomberg Survey. This total would be up 400,000 acres from the USDA baseline projections from the February USDA Outlook Forum.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline — potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue to target 1056 vs May as a first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week. 

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, continue targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: It will be at least another 1–2 months before the first targets or recommendations are likely to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were lower to end the day and were bear spread with the front months posting the majority of the losses while new crop beans were unchanged. Meal led the complex lower as improved weather in Argentina boosted production estimates. Soybean oil was higher along with crude oil.

  • AgRural has cut its estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop to 165.9 mmt on disappointing yields in the South. This is now below the USDA’s estimate of 169 mmt. Harvest in the country is 73.84% complete which is a record pace for this time of year.

  • The USDA will release its planting intentions report on Monday, March 31, and the average trade estimate for soybean acres is 83.8 m with the range between 82.5 and 85.5 ma. The outlook forum estimated 84.0 ma, and in 2024, 87.1 ma of soybeans were planted. These numbers would be bullish if realized.

  • In South America, weather conditions have improved in southern Brazil, where 41% of the soybean crop is reportedly filling pods. Argentina has also received more rain as its crop progresses toward maturity, following a relatively dry season.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat again closed lower, pressured by lower corn and soybean futures, as well as a forecast for above normal temperatures and better precipitation chances in the US plains over the next couple weeks. Rain in the Black Sea area may have also offered some weakness as it brings relief from dry conditions.

  • According to the White House, the Russian government has agreed to safe passage of ships in the Black Sea following peace talks in Saudi Arabia. Additionally, the US will help to restore Russian ag and fertilizer exports.

  • SovEcon is said to have once again lowered their estimate of Russian wheat exports, this time by 1.5 mmt to 40.7 mmt. For reference, the USDA export projection is still sitting at 45 mmt.

  • Select states released updated winter wheat crop ratings. Top producer, Kansas, saw a 1% improvement to 49% good to excellent. There were also improvements of 3% in Texas to 31%, and 6% in Colorado to 66%. But after the recent heavy winds and dryness, there was a decline of 9% to 37% good to excellent in Oklahoma.

  • According to the European Union Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit (MARS), grains are in fairly good condition and are in better shape than last year. Additionally, soft wheat yields are estimated at 6.00 mt per hectare, which is above last year’s 5.58 and a five-year average of 5.77.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 701 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 714 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 704 hits. This applies to Plan B.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • One Change: The 717 upside target has been cancelled for now.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 677 hits. This applies to Plan B. 

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 625 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day total precipitation maps of the United States and South America from https://www.ag-wx.com/SA

|

3-24 End of Day: Grains Mixed: Corn Gains While Soybeans and Wheat Continue to Slip

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures finished the day higher, following a volatile start to the day, as concerns over drought conditions and positive export inspections provided support for the market.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures closed lower today after a quiet trading session, with concerns lingering over upcoming tariff negotiations and ongoing uncertainties.

  • Wheat: Wheat markets closed lower across the board as the US dollar strengthened, coupled with ongoing concerns over the ceasefire negotiations in the Ukraine War.

  • To see the updated 7-day GEFS precipitation forecast for South America as well as the 7-day precipitation forecast for the U.S.  scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue targeting 480 vs May as the first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the overall strategy. There are still no new targets for an eighth sales recommendation on the 2024 crop. With the typically volatile Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports coming out next Monday, Grain Market Insider will likely hold off on new recommendations until after the reports — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue targeting 462 vs December as the first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the overall strategy for new crop corn. The approach remains well-balanced between the sales recommendations, the open 420 put options, and the open 510/550 call options. Bring on the March 31 reports!

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • No Targets: No new or active targets at this time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn closed slightly higher today as export inspections revealed Mexico as the top buyer of U.S. corn, followed by Japan and South Korea.

  • Managed Money trades continue to liquidate their long position in corn. The Commitment of Traders report from last week showed managed money reducing their net long position by nearly 40,000 contracts, which has brought their net long position to 107,000 contracts, down from 400,000 just a couple of months ago.

  • Drought concerns are expected to continue supporting the market, as last week’s drought monitor highlighted worsening dry conditions across much of the Southern Plains. Limited improvements in soil moisture will likely affect crop conditions as planting advances.

  • South American weather forecasts have improved with many areas expecting to see some beneficial rainfall, which will help boost corn conditions and development.

  • USDA Attache in Mexico City sees Mexico’s corn imports from the US falling for 25/26 as higher local prices are contributing to farmers shifting more acres over to corn.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline — potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 39,271 contracts between March 11 – March 18, bringing their total position to a net long 107,270 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue to target 1056 vs May as a first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week. 

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, continue targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: It will be at least another 1–2 months before the first targets or recommendations are likely to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were slightly lower to end the day in relatively quiet trade. Concerns over upcoming potential tariffs along with the ongoing Brazilian soybean harvest have put pressure on the market. Export inspections were better than last week, which was supportive. Soybean meal led soybeans lower while soybean oil was higher.

  • Today’s export inspections were on the higher side of analyst estimates at 30.2 million bushels for the week ending March 20. This was above last week’s inspections and put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.467 bb, which is up 9% from the previous year.

  • In South America, weather conditions have improved in southern Brazil, where 41% of the soybean crop is reportedly filling pods. Argentina has also received more rain as its crop progresses toward maturity, following a relatively dry season.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 6,461 contracts increasing their net short position to 22,005 contracts. They sold 13,757 contracts of bean oil and bought 11,014 contracts of meal.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,461 contracts between March 11 – March 18, bringing their total position to a net short 22,005 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across the board, pressured by sharply lower Paris milling wheat futures and a strengthening US Dollar Index. Traders are also closely monitoring ceasefire discussions related to the Ukraine war, with talks between US and Russian officials commencing today in Saudi Arabia.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections at 17.8 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 619 mb, which is up 18% from last year. The inspection pace is steady with the USDA’s projection; exports for 24/25 are estimated at 835 mb, up 18% from the year prior.

  • IKAR has increased their estimate of 2025 Russian wheat production by 1.5 mmt to 82.5 mmt. In related news, the Russian agriculture ministry reduced their wheat export tax by 23% to 1,847 Rubles per mt – this applies from March 26 to April 1.

  • According to the USDA ag attaché to Mexico, corn imports for the 2025/26 season are expected to decline, while wheat imports are projected to rise. The increase in wheat imports is attributed to a forecasted drop in production due to low dam levels in key growing regions. Additionally, rising wheat consumption is expected to further drive the demand for imports.

  • The Ukrainian agriculture ministry has announced that the country has planted spring grains on 18% more acreage than last year, covering 250,400 hectares. Specifically, spring wheat planting is forecast to increase by 27% year-on-year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 701 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 714 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 704 hits. This applies to Plan B.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,256 contracts between March 11 – March 18, bringing their total position to a net short 80,668 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • One Change: The 717 upside target has been cancelled for now.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 677 hits. This applies to Plan B. 

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,059 contracts between March 11 – March 18, bringing their total position to a net short 46,663 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 625 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,076 contracts between March 11  – March 18, bringing their total position to a net short 22,566 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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3-21 End of Day: Grains Mixed: Wheat Gains on Drought Concerns, Corn and Soybeans Slip

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn closed lower, erasing yesterday’s gains as a stronger U.S. dollar and tariff concerns from Canada and Mexico pressured the market.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower amid weak export demand and pressure from Brazil’s record harvest.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures ended mostly higher as drought expansion across the U.S. provided support.

  • To see the updated monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks from the CPC as well as the 14-day precipitation anomaly for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of your 2026 corn crop. Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn closed lower, erasing most of yesterday’s gains, as a stronger U.S. dollar and lingering tariff concerns from Canada and Mexico pressured the market. May 2025 futures dipped back below the 100-day moving average but managed to retain modest gains for the week.

  • Traders are closely awaiting the release of the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, scheduled for March 31. Expectations are for a large increase in U.S. corn acres compared to last year.

  • The BAGE held their Argentine production estimates unchanged at 49 mmt vs the USDA’s estimate of 50 mmt as harvest progress has nearly reached 14%.

  • Tariff tensions are set to escalate next week as the April 2 deadline nears and negotiations gain momentum. Analysts expect a swift resolution, given Canada and Mexico’s reliance on U.S. trade. Meanwhile, Northern Mexico’s persistent drought underscores the region’s continued need for U.S. corn imports.

  • Brazil is expected to receive between ¾ and 2 ½ inches of rain through next Thursday. While this rainfall will be beneficial for the development of other crops, it may delay ongoing harvest for both soybeans and the first corn crop. In contrast, Argentina is expected to experience a few more days of dry weather, allowing the harvest to continue without disruption.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for at least another couple months.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower on little fresh news apart from poor export demand and an ongoing record large Brazilian harvest. Bullish news could come next week if soybean acres are significantly reduced in the Planting Intentions report. Soybean meal ended the day higher while soybean oil was lower.

  • A grain exchange in Argentina has cut their estimate for soybean production in the country by 1 million tons as a result of drought conditions. Estimates are now at 48.6 mmt which is slightly lower than the USDA’s most recent estimate.

  • For the week, May soybeans lost 6-1/4 cents to $10.09-3/4, while November soybeans lost 10-1/4 cents at $10.07-3/4. May soybean meal was down $5.60 at $300.30 and May soybean oil gained 0.42 cents at 42.01.

  • Abiove has estimated the Brazilian soybean crop for 2025 0.5% lower at 170.9 mmt compared to 171.7 mmt the previous month, but this output would still be up 11% from last year. This estimate is near the USDA’s 169.0 mmt.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed mostly higher, despite the firming U.S. dollar and a lower close for Paris milling wheat futures. Increased drought readings for much of U.S. Midwest and Plains states are helping to support the market.

  • The International Grains Council raised its 2025/26 global grain stockpile estimate to 578 mmt, up 1 mmt year-over-year. However, wheat stocks are expected to decline from 265 mmt to 259 mmt.

  • The extended forecast for April calls for widespread warm and dry conditions. This could affect the development of the U.S. winter wheat crop due to a lack of soil moisture. However, this should also mitigate concerns over frost or freeze damage.

  • The Ukrainian first deputy farm minister has said that their winter crops are in satisfactory condition. Furthermore, weather swings in February and so far in March were not enough to cause any significant crop damage.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 701 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 714 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 704 hits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 717 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 677 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 625 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop following the recent hit of the 647.75 target. 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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3-20 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Close Higher Following Export Report, While Wheat Remains Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn closed higher today, supported by another week of strong export sales.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans began the day weaker, pressured by disappointing export sales, but gained strength as the day progressed, supported by the corn market, and ultimately closed higher.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes today, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and a general lack of significant market-moving news.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell the first portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Details: Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Buying strength continued in the front end of the corn market, with another week of strong export sales providing support for the old corn crop. Deferred prices also moved slightly higher, in line with the strength in the front-end markets.

  • USDA released weekly export sales for the week ending March 13. U.S. exporters reported new sales of 1.497 MMT (58.9 MB) for the current marketing year. Corn sales are running 25% higher year over year. Japan was the largest buyer of U.S. corn for that week.

  • In South American weather, rainfall looks promising in central Brazil for the next seven days. The Provence of Parana may be left out of that forecast, which is responsible for 15% of the safrinha corn production. Argentina weather has been dry enough to expand harvest with the harvest now close to 12% done.

  • Rumors that Brazil was purchasing U.S. corn on the export market were in front of the market this morning. Brazil has a tight domestic corn supply and typically does step out to import some bushels every year. Annually, Brazil imports between 1.5-3.0 MMT of corn.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for at least another couple months.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher and were bull spread with the front months posting larger gains than new crop contracts. Export sales were disappointing this morning which brought early weakness, but prices moved higher into the close along with corn. Soybean meal was lower while soybean oil followed crude oil higher.

  • Today’s Export Sales report was below trade estimates at 13.0 million bushels for 24/25 and 100 mt for 25/26. Primary destinations were to China, Taiwan, and Saudi Arabia. Last week’s export shipments of 21.8 mb were above the 14.3 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates of 1.825 bb for 24/25.

  • Abiove has estimated the Brazilian soybean crop for 2025 0.5% lower at 170.9 mmt compared to 171.7 mmt the previous month, but this output would still be up 11% from last year. This estimate is near the USDA’s 169.0 mmt.

  • Brazilian soybean basis has improved recently due to high Chinese demand despite the record large crop being harvested, and Chinese February soybean imports increased to 13.6 mmt which is up 4.4% from a year ago. Brazilian exports for March are expected to reach 15.6 mmt compared to 13.5 mmt a year ago.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted modest losses in each of the three classes. A stronger U.S. dollar, lower close for Matif wheat, and a lack of fresh friendly news all contributed to today’s weakness.

  • The USDA reported a decrease of 9.1 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 but an increase of 18.0 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaling 17.3 mb fell below the 21.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 835 mb. Total sales commitments have reached 766 mb for 24/25, which is up 13% from last year.

  • According to the USDA, as of March 18 an estimated 34% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions. This is a jump up from the 27% reading last week. The spring wheat area in drought held steady with last week; however, it was at an estimated 39%.

  • The International Grains Council has estimated world 25/26 wheat production at 807 mmt, which would be up 1% from a year ago.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 701 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 714 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 704 hits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 717 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 677 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 625 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop following the recent hit of the 647.75 target. 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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3-19 End of Day: Mixed Close for Corn, Soybeans Lower, Wheat Drops on Wetter Outlook

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures ended mixed again on Wednesday, but unlike yesterday, old crop contracts closed higher while new crop contracts finished lower.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day slightly lower, similar to yesterday’s movement. Soybean oil and meal futures also closed lower, with soybean meal posting the larger losses.

  • Wheat: Wetter conditions forecasted for the Plains led to a lower close across the board for wheat futures on Wednesday, with KC futures taking the brunt of the decline.

  • To see the updated 30-day percent of normal precipitation map and the 8–14-day precipitation outlook for South America and the U.S., scroll down to the charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell the first portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Details: Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures traded mixed on Wednesday, with light buying strength returning to old crop contracts, while new crop prices remained under pressure.

  • Traders are positioning ahead of the USDA Prospective Planting and Grain Stocks report, which could shape market direction. Analysts expect strong demand to be reflected but also anticipate a significant increase in corn acreage compared to last year.

  • Weekly ethanol production rebounded over last week. Production jumped to 325 million barrels/day (mbpd) versus 312 mbpd last week, up 5.6% over last year. An estimated 111 mb of corn was used in the production of ethanol last week. This total is still trending ahead of USDA targets for the marketing year.

  • USDA export sales data will be released Thursday, with new corn sales for the week ending March 13 projected between 800,000 MT and 1.7 MMT. Last week’s total was 967,000 MT.

  • With planting mostly complete on the key second crop Brazil corn, weather becomes the focus. Early-season conditions are favorable, with expected rainfall supporting crop development.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for at least another couple months.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were lower to end the day but have maintained their rangebound trade. Weather in Brazil has been relatively good for the completion of harvest, and the country has been exporting large amounts of soybeans putting pressure on U.S. demand. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower with meal posting the larger losses.

  • Brazilian soybean basis has improved recently due to high Chinese demand despite the record large crop being harvested, and Chinese February soybean imports increased to 13.6 mmt which is up 4.4% from a year ago. Brazilian exports for March are expected to reach 15.6 mmt compared to 13.5 mmt a year ago.

  • It is expected that the EPA will propose U.S. biofuel blending targets for 2026 in April or May according to Darling Ingredients. The industry is asking for a 2 billion gallon increase to biomass-based diesel volumes from existing blending targets.

  • Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 70% as of March 13, the fastest pace on record per AgRural. The southeast and northern regions expect above-average rainfall in the next 6-10 days.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Improved precipitation chances from a Midwestern storm pressured the wheat market Wednesday, leading to profit-taking from the recent rally. HRW futures saw the most selling pressure.

  • Rain and snowfall forecasts for parts of Kansas are expected to provide much-needed moisture to winter wheat crops.

  • Technically, wheat futures followed through from the soft close on Tuesday. Wheat futures are testing support levels with today’s close. These levels need to hold, or the wheat market is at risk of breaking the most recent trend higher, likely leading to further downside correction.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales for wheat on Thursday morning. For the week ending March 13, reported sales are expected to range from 300,000-700,000 MT of new sales. Last week US exporters sold 783,416 MT, which was above trade expectations.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 701 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 714 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 704 hits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 717 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 677 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 625 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop following the recent hit of the 647.75 target. 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Above: From Barchat – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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3-18 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Mixed, Soybeans Lower in Quiet Tuesday Trade

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures ended mixed Tuesday as selling pressure weighed on front-end contracts, while new crop contracts held onto fractional gains.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed slightly lower, staying rangebound, with soybean meal leading the decline while soybean oil posted gains.

  • Wheat: Wheat closed mixed, fading from early session strength, with Kansas City futures leading gains.

  • To see the updated 14-day GEFS precipitation forecast for South America and the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell the first portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Details: Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw selling pressure in the front end of the market to finish with mixed trade on the close Tuesday. A calmer wheat market allowed sellers to continue to liquidate long positions at the front end of the market.

  • Technically, the May futures contract tested the 200-day moving average support level during the session. Failure of this point to hold would likely trigger additional long liquidation as speculators have been reducing their length in the market given market volatility.

  • Traders are positioning ahead of the USDA Prospective Planting and Grain Stocks Report at month-end, which could set the tone for old and new crop markets.

  • With the recent drop in crude oil prices, ethanol margins have tightened. Weekly ethanol production reports have remained supportive of the market, but demand could slow if margin remain tight.  Current usage of corn for ethanol production is running ahead of the pace to reach USDA market year targets.

Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low that can be built off as we head towards spring. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for at least another couple months.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower with futures largely rangebound since the beginning of the month. Slow export demand and the Brazilian harvest which is nearly completed have kept soybeans from rallying significantly, but they remain off contract lows. Soybean meal led soybeans lower today while soybean oil was higher.

  • Yesterday’s NOPA crush report saw soybean crush for February at 177.87 million bushels which was well below the average trade guess of 188.0 mb. This compares to 200.38 mb in the month of January and was also down from last year at this time. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.503 billion pounds, which was above trade estimates and the prior month.

  • Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 70% as of March 13, the fastest pace on record per AgRural. The southeast and northern regions expect above-average rainfall in the next 6-10 days.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw 647k tons of soybeans inspected for export which compared to 854k the previous week and 700k tons a year ago. Soybean export demand in the future may weaken with the continuation of US tariffs on China.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As March began, improved weather and harvest pressure in South America caused a sharp price decline. Support held around the 1000 level, with stronger support near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a critical barrier.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed in mixed fashion today, fading off of earlier strength; Kansas City futures remained the upside leader. Paris milling wheat also had a mixed close, offering no direction for the US market. Relative weakness into the close might be explained by a storm system expected to bring precipitation to much of the central plains and Midwest over the next 48 hours.

  • Select states released updated winter wheat crop ratings – Texas and Oklahoma conditions held steady at 28% and 46% good to excellent, respectively. However, ratings in Kansas declined 4% to 48% GTE, while Colorado fell 7% to 60% GTE.

  • President Trump spoke with Russian President Putin for over an hour regarding the Ukraine war, with reports indicating a potential 30-day ceasefire focused on energy infrastructure.

  • As of March 16, European Union soft wheat exports have reached 14.92 mmt since the export season began in July. This total is down 35% from the same time period last year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 701 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 714 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 704 hits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat’s Volatile Breakout and Retreat
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, surging to key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, the late February peak proved to be a turning point, as futures retreated sharply, slipping back into the previous trading range that defined the end of 2024. Support has so far held near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average looms as a key resistance level near 570. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day could signal a potential trend reversal and renewed upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 717 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 677 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Faces Key Technical Test
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, the rally lost steam in late February, leading to a sharp retreat back into the previous trading range. Support has held firm near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average is expected to serve as resistance on any attempted rebound. A decisive close above key resistance will be crucial for reigniting the uptrend as the market heads into spring.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 625 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop. 

  • Target Hit: The September contract has rebounded over 40 cents from the current March low, hitting the 647.75 sales target today. This marks the fourth sales recommendation for the 2025 Hard Red Spring wheat crop, with an average price of 652.

  • Plan A: No active targets. 647.75 target hit today – 3/18/25.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, sparking bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, dragging futures back below key moving averages. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as resistance on any rebound, while previous lows near 580 should provide a key support level. A sustained move above resistance would be needed to reignite the uptrend.

Other Charts / Weather

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3-17 End of Day: Weather Concerns Drive Wheat Higher Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures posted marginal gains to start the week, supported by a strong wheat market and robust export inspections.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended mixed, with front months lower and deferred contracts higher in quiet trade.

  • Wheat: Wheat posted double-digit gains, led by Kansas City futures, as weather concerns drive more premium into the market.

  • To see the updated 10-day GEFS precipitation forecast for South America as well as the 7-day precipitation forecast for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell the first portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Details: Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures posted marginal gains to start the week, supported by a strong wheat market, a weaker U.S. dollar, and robust export inspections.

  • Weekly corn export inspections totaled 65.3 MB for the week ending March 13, keeping total inspections 33% ahead of last year, while the USDA projects only a 7% increase. Analysts expect USDA export demand adjustments later in the marketing year.

  • May corn futures are struggling to break resistance at the 100-day moving average, potentially keeping speculators selling into rallies.

  • Brazil’s key second-crop corn planting is nearly complete, but a drier forecast in Mato Grosso could impact crop development.

  • U.S. corn will likely stay competitive in the global export market until the June time window as bids are limited or at a higher value for global competitors until then. U.S. export sales and shipments are running well ahead of the pace needed to reach export targets.

Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low that can be built off as we head towards spring. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 73,211 contracts between March 4 – March 11, bringing their total position to a net long 146,541 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for at least another couple months.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the two front months lower and deferred contracts higher in quiet trade. Prices faded from overnight highs with little bullish fundamental news to drive the complex. Soybean meal ended the day slightly lower while soybean oil was higher.

  • Today’s NOPA crush report saw soybean crush for February at 177.87 million bushels which was well below the average trade guess of 188.0 mb. This compares to 200.38 mb in the month of January and was also down from last year at this time. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.503 billion pounds, which was above trade estimates and the prior month.

  • In Brazil, 97.3% of Mato Grosso’s soybean crop was harvested as of last Friday, with dry weather in the 10-day forecast. Production may fall slightly below initial estimates.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 19,943 contracts of soybeans, which left them with a net short position of 15,544 contracts. They were sellers of soybean oil by 23,521 contracts and buyers of meal by 13,317 contracts.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As March began, improved weather and harvest pressure in South America caused a sharp price decline. Support held around the 1000 level, with stronger support near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a critical barrier.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 19,943 contracts between March 4 – March 11, bringing their total position to a net short 1,5,544 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat made double-digit gains led by Kansas City futures, as more weather premium is being factored in. Warmth, dryness, and strong winds in the U.S. southern Plains remain a key focus, with 27% of U.S. winter wheat in drought—double last year’s level. A weaker U.S. dollar and higher Matif wheat prices also provided support.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 18.1 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 601 mb, which is up 18% from last year. Inspections are steady with the USDA’s estimated pace; they are estimating 24/25 wheat exports at 835 mb, up 18% from the year prior.

  • President Trump has indicated that he will speak with Putin tomorrow. This discussion will reportedly center around ending the Ukraine war.

  • According to SovEcon, the Russian government wants to keep their domestic flour and bread prices low – therefore they may continue to cut wheat exports. In theory this could mean more demand for U.S. wheat, which would be bullish.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 701 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 714 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 704 hits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat’s Volatile Breakout and Retreat
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, surging to key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, the late February peak proved to be a turning point, as futures retreated sharply, slipping back into the previous trading range that defined the end of 2024. Support has so far held near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average looms as a key resistance level near 570. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day could signal a potential trend reversal and renewed upside momentum.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,987 contracts between March 4 – March 11, bringing their total position to a net short 77,412 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 717 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 677 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Faces Key Technical Test
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, the rally lost steam in late February, leading to a sharp retreat back into the previous trading range. Support has held firm near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average is expected to serve as resistance on any attempted rebound. A decisive close above key resistance will be crucial for reigniting the uptrend as the market heads into spring.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 9,440 contracts between March 4 – March 11, bringing their total position to a net short 48,722 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 625 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 647.75 vs September to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 647.75 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, sparking bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, dragging futures back below key moving averages. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as resistance on any rebound, while previous lows near 580 should provide a key support level. A sustained move above resistance would be needed to reignite the uptrend.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,450 contracts between March 4 – March 11, bringing their total position to a net short 25,642 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather