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2-21 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Slide to End the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: March corn futures hit resistance at $5 this week, with selling pressure continuing into Friday. Improved South American weather added to the downside momentum.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended Friday lower as weak export sales and Brazil’s advancing harvest weighed on the market.

  • Wheat: Despite weakness in corn and soybeans, wheat futures closed higher, with Chicago leading the gains.

  • To see the updated U.S. drought monitor as well as the updated week one GFS forecast for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop. This is the second sales recommendation this week.

  • Target Range Hit: The May contract once again attempted to break through the upper end of Grain Market Insider’s target range (495–515) yesterday but failed to advance. This potentially stalling momentum triggered yesterday’s new sale recommendation. Keep in mind as the sentiment of market participants has shifted to extremely bullish, that at yesterday’s close, the front month continuous price was already up nearly 38% from the August 12 low of 372.50 – bird in the hand…

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 510 corn calls and December ‘25 550 corn calls in equal quantities, with a total net spend of approximately 43 cents plus commission and fees.

  • The December ‘25 contract closed above 479 resistance yesterday, signaling potential for continued upside movement. Purchasing these call options reopens upside potential on the sales recommendations made to date. Additionally, buying two strikes provides flexibility—the lower strike can be exited once it covers the cost of the upper strike.

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and this call option strategy, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead—especially weather—it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 corn on the upside and $3–$4 corn on the downside.

  • Current sales recommendations are building a buffer against downside scenarios, while the call options purchase helps reopen upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–2 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the week with moderate losses as the March contract slipped 5 cents, once again failing to break above the key $5 resistance level. This came despite strong export sales and support from the wheat market.

  • The USDA announced weekly export sales totals on Friday morning. For the week ending February 13, U.S. exporters posted new sales of 1.454 MMT (57.2 mb). Total accumulated sales are now running 29% above last year and well ahead of the pace to reach the USDA corn export target.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its corn crop ratings, citing recent rainfall that helped stabilize conditions. The percentage of the crop rated “good” increased by 3%, while the “poor” category declined by the same amount.

  • Recent improved weather in the Brazil state of Mato Grasso has allowed corn planting of the second crop corn to catch up to pace. The Brazil Ag analyst group IMEA forecast the corn planting in Mato Grasso is 67.2% complete, just slightly behind the 5-year pace of 70.2%. Mato Grasso produces just under 50% of the Brazil second crop corn.

Corn Bulls Charge Ahead, Eyeing $5 Breakout
Corn’s rally since harvest shows no signs of slowing, fueled by aggressive fund buying and steady demand. Strong technical support remains at 475, with an added safety net near the 450-breakout zone. Now, the market is locked in on the $5 mark—a pivotal resistance level that could open the gates for the next leg higher. With bullish momentum firmly in the driver’s seat, the question remains: can the bulls break through, or will the rally hit a wall?

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 remain the upside target range vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower but have maintained a narrow trading range over the past week. Pressure today came from poor export sales and a general decline in export demand recently. Soybean meal was mixed with losses in the front months and gains in the deferred contracts while soybean oil was lower.

  • Today’s export sales report was poor for soybeans with an increase of 18 million bushels. While this was within trade expectations, export demand has slipped with ongoing Brazilian harvest. Sales were up from last week, but down 23% from the previous 4-week average.

  • For the week, March soybeans gained 3-1/2 cents to $10.39-1/2 while November soybeans gained 7-3/4 cents to $10.59-3/4. March soybean meal lost $1.10 to $294.80, and March soybean oil gained 0.74 cents to 46.81 cents.

  • The International Grains Council decreased their estimate of global soybean production by 2 mmt to 418 mmt. This is said to be largely due to smaller production in Argentina and Paraguay. For reference, the USDA’s February forecast sits at 421 mmt.

Soybeans Eye Breakout After Repeated Tests
Front-month soybean futures are knocking on the door of the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A clean break above this level could ignite bullish momentum and signal a fresh leg higher. On any retreat, solid support is seen near $10, while initial resistance stands at $11, with a bigger hurdle looming near $11.40. The battle lines are drawn—will soybeans finally break free?

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • In the face of lower corn and soybeans, a higher U.S. Dollar Index, and a negative close for Paris milling wheat futures, U.S. wheat had a relatively strong close. Chicago futures led the wheat complex to the upside, despite little in the way of fresh news to drive the market. Support at the 10-day moving average has kept all three classes propped up.

  • Weekly wheat export sales totaled 19.6 mb for 24/25 and 3.6 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 8.6 mb fell below the 19.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export estimate of 850 mb. Total commitments at 724 mb are up 11% compared to a year ago, though the USDA forecast calls for a 20% increase.

  • CoBank estimates U.S. spring wheat acreage will decline 6% to 10 million acres this year. Next week’s USDA Outlook Forum may provide further insight, though it won’t be official data.

  • The Russian ag ministry is reported to have reduced their wheat export tax by 24.6% to 2,742.60 Rubles per mt, valid through March 4.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop.

  • Next Target: If the July contract can maintain its uptrend, the next sales target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Out with Force
Chicago wheat shattered its prolonged sideways grind with a powerful February surge, hitting key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. This decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average sets the stage for the MA to act as firm support on any near-term dips. Next upside targets loom near 650, with stronger resistance waiting in the 680-700 zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given the recent sale recommendation, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Two Sales: Grain Market Insider advised two sales last week—one on Monday and another on Friday—as the July ’25 contract extended its rally for a fourth straight week.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Ignites Rally Potential
Kansas City wheat futures launched into February with bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and challenging multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could spark a run toward the coveted 700 mark. On the flip side, the 200-day MA offers initial support, with a sturdier safety net resting near 575.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout Confirmed
Spring wheat shook off its doldrums in late January, surging past its prolonged sideways range and flashing bullish signals. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average strengthens the breakout case. Initial support stands at the 200-day MA, with firmer footing near 615 — the top of the old range. On the upside, 650 is the first hurdle to clear before bulls set their sights on the elusive 700 mark.

Other Charts / Weather

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2-20 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Post Gains, Wheat Remains Under Pressure

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: The corn market closed the day with modest gains, receiving support from the soybean market and a continued positive outlook in the weekly export report, which remains favorable for corn demand.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans finished the day higher, recovering yesterday’s losses and then some, supported by both soybean oil and soybean meal.

  • Wheat: The wheat market faced resistance today, closing the session with losses as concerns over cold weather eased, with warmer temperatures expected to move into the affected regions by the weekend.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop today. This is the second sales recommendation this week.

  • Target Range Hit: The May contract once again attempted to break through the upper end of Grain Market Insider’s target range (495–515) today but failed to advance. This stalled momentum triggered today’s new sale recommendation.

2025 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 510 corn calls and December ‘25 550 corn calls in equal quantities, with a total net spend of approximately 43 cents plus commission and fees.

  • The December ‘25 contract closed above 479 resistance today, signaling potential for continued upside movement. Purchasing these call options reopens upside potential on the sales recommendations made to date. Additionally, buying two strikes provides flexibility—the lower strike can be exited once it covers the cost of the upper strike.

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and today’s call option strategy, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead—especially weather—it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 on the upside and $3–$4 on the downside.

  • Current sales recommendations are building a buffer against downside scenarios, while today’s call option purchase helps reopen upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–2 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Choppy trade in the corn market saw prices finish with modest gains for the session. With March options expiring on Friday, strength in the soybean market provided support and added volatility to the corn market.

  • March corn options will expire on Friday, potentially increasing volatility as traders adjust positions ahead of the deadline. The 500 level of March calls is the largest area of open interest, and prices may hold near that level.

  • The International Grains Council (IGC) released its latest global corn production estimates, lowering the world crop by 3 mmt due to weather-related impacts on South American production this growing season. However, the IGC’s estimates remain higher than those of the USDA for global corn production.

  • The weekly ethanol production report continues to support corn demand. Production rebounded to 319 million gallons, showing a slight increase from the previous week. An estimated 109 MB of corn were used for ethanol production, keeping pace ahead of the required rate to meet USDA targets for the marketing year.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales totals on Friday morning. Expectations are for the week ending February 13, that new sales range from 900,000 MT –1.6 MMT. Last week total sales were 1.65 MMT as export demand stays supportive in the corn market.

Corn Bulls Charge Ahead, Eyeing $5 Breakout
Corn’s rally since harvest shows no signs of slowing, fueled by aggressive fund buying and steady demand. Strong technical support remains at 475, with an added safety net near the 450-breakout zone. Now, the market is locked in on the $5 mark—a pivotal resistance level that could open the gates for the next leg higher. With bullish momentum firmly in the driver’s seat, the question remains: can the bulls break through, or will the rally hit a wall?

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 remain the upside target range vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher, recovering all of yesterday’s losses and then some. However, prices have remained rangebound over the past week, with support at the 40-day moving average. Soybean oil also rebounded, regaining all of yesterday’s losses, while soybean meal was higher as well, with both products providing support for soybeans.

  • Agroconsult has revised its estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop down by 1.1 mmt, but the new estimate remains a record at 171.3 mmt. This is 15.8 mmt higher than last year’s crop, with the majority of the gains coming from the Center-North region.

  • The International Grains Council decreased their estimate of global soybean production by 2 mmt to 418 mmt. This is said to be largely due to smaller production in Argentina and Paraguay. For reference, the USDA’s February forecast sits at 421 mmt.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised their rating of Argentina’s soybean conditions by 2% to 66% of the crop rated normal to excellent. Additionally, soil moisture conditions were also improved by 5 points. With that, critical weather still lies ahead, as most of that crop has not started filling pods yet.

  • Tomorrow’s export sales report is expected to show soybean sales in a range between 300,000 and 500,000 tons. Export demand has been on the decline recently as the Brazilian soybean harvest progresses and they offer soybeans at a discount to US offers.

Soybeans Eye Breakout After Repeated Tests
Front-month soybean futures are knocking on the door of the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A clean break above this level could ignite bullish momentum and signal a fresh leg higher. On any retreat, solid support is seen near $10, while initial resistance stands at $11, with a bigger hurdle looming near $11.40. The battle lines are drawn—will soybeans finally break free?

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat faced pressure today, closing with losses across all three classes. Minneapolis futures performed the best, likely supported by concerns over drought conditions in the U.S. Northern Plains. However, easing concerns about winter wheat crop damage may have contributed to today’s weakness, as temperatures in the nation’s midsection are expected to warm up by the weekend.

  • According to the USDA, as of February 18, an estimated 20% of U.S. winter wheat acreage is facing drought conditions, marking a 3% improvement from the previous week. However, spring wheat acreage remained steady, with 40% experiencing drought compared to the week prior, well above last year’s 22% for this time period.

  • The International Grains Council has increased their estimate of global wheat production by 1 mmt to 797 mmt. This is above the USDA’s February estimate of 794 mmt. The IGC’s increase is said to be mainly due to a bigger harvest in Kazakhstan.

  • According to their ag ministry, France planted 6.35 million hectares of winter grains for the 2025 harvest, which is up 7.2% from 2024, but still 1.3% below the five-year average. The planted area for soft wheat specifically is up 10% year over year at 4.57 million hectares.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop.

  • Next Target: If the July contract can maintain its uptrend, the next sales target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Out with Force
Chicago wheat shattered its prolonged sideways grind with a powerful February surge, hitting key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. This decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average sets the stage for the MA to act as firm support on any near-term dips. Next upside targets loom near 650, with stronger resistance waiting in the 680-700 zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop on February 5 at 591.75 vs March ‘25.

  • No Official Targets: Following the latest sales recommendation, there are currently no active target ranges to make additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Two Sales: Grain Market Insider advised two sales last week—one on Monday and another on Friday—as the July ’25 contract extended its rally for a fourth straight week.

  • Key Levels: The July ’25 contract is now just 4 cents below the September high of 653.75, marking a 99-cent rebound from the December low.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Ignites Rally Potential
Kansas City wheat futures launched into February with bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and challenging multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could spark a run toward the coveted 700 mark. On the flip side, the 200-day MA offers initial support, with a sturdier safety net resting near 575.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop on February 10.

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout Confirmed
Spring wheat shook off its doldrums in late January, surging past its prolonged sideways range and flashing bullish signals. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average strengthens the breakout case. Initial support stands at the 200-day MA, with firmer footing near 615 — the top of the old range. On the upside, 650 is the first hurdle to clear before bulls set their sights on the elusive 700 mark.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-19 End of Day: Wheat Weakness Pressures Grains Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Spillover weakness from wheat dragged corn lower on Wednesday, knocking front-month futures back below the $5 mark.

  • Soybeans: Soybean meal futures held onto slight gains, while soybeans and soybean oil faced selling pressure throughout the session.

  • Wheat: Futures corrected from overbought territory today, easing concerns about winterkill along with weaker Matif wheat futures added pressure.

  • To see the updated U.S. and South America GRACE-Based root zone soil moisture drought indicator maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • Target Range Hit: Yesterday’s market strength pushed May ’25 to the upper end of the 495–515 target range, triggering a recommendation to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop: 

  • Hold: Given recent sales recommendations, the current guidance is to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Major Resistance at 479: December ‘25 faces strong resistance at 479. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential as we move into the spring planting window.

  • Potential Call Option Strategy: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a possible call option recommendation. This strategy would hedge against existing sales while positioning you for upside exposure in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–3 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure from wheat weighed on corn Wednesday, pulling futures off early highs to close with moderate losses. The March contract’s failure to hold the $5 level could spark additional long liquidation as the market nears overbought conditions.

  • March corn options expire on Friday, which could bring some volatility as positions prepare for that trading deadline. The 500 level of March call is the largest area of open interest, and price may hold near that level.

  • Improved weather in Brazil is accelerating second-crop corn planting, though progress remains behind in key regions. This crop will compete directly with U.S. corn in the summer export market.

  • Strong demand continues to support old-crop corn, with exports and shipments well ahead of USDA targets. The market appears to be pricing in a lower carryout than the 1.54 billion bushels projected in the February USDA report.

Corn Bulls Charge Ahead, Eyeing $5 Breakout
Corn’s rally since harvest shows no signs of slowing, fueled by aggressive fund buying and steady demand. Strong technical support remains at 475, with an added safety net near the 450-breakout zone. Now, the market is locked in on the $5 mark—a pivotal resistance level that could open the gates for the next leg higher. With bullish momentum firmly in the driver’s seat, the question remains: can the bulls break through, or will the rally hit a wall?

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

2025 Crop:

  • New Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after falling from earlier morning highs. Wheat led the way in losses today bringing the entire grain complex lower apart from soybean meal. Soybean oil was down 1.14 cents to 46.15 cents in the March contract. Pressure has come from improving South American weather and Brazilian harvest.

  • In Brazil, conditions have improved for harvest, and the state of Parana is now estimated to be 40% harvested as of this Monday. This was up 7% from the previous week, and 78% of the state’s soybeans have been rated good, 19% average, and just 3% poor.

  • January’s NOPA crush came in at 200.38 million bushels, below the trade estimate of 204.5 mb and December’s 206.6 mb, but higher than last year’s 185.8 mb.

  • Yesterday’s inspections report sales of 720k tons of soybeans inspected for export compared to 1,097k the previous week and 1,292k a year ago. Primary destinations were China, Egypt, and Mexico.

Soybeans Eye Breakout After Repeated Tests
Front-month soybean futures are knocking on the door of the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A clean break above this level could ignite bullish momentum and signal a fresh leg higher. On any retreat, solid support is seen near $10, while initial resistance stands at $11, with a bigger hurdle looming near $11.40. The battle lines are drawn—will soybeans finally break free?

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures tumbled Wednesday, posting double-digit losses in Chicago and Kansas City, with Minneapolis not far behind. Technical correction played a role, as all three March contracts were overbought on daily stochastics. Easing winterkill concerns and a lower Matif wheat close added pressure.

  • Conditions for the winter wheat crop in Texas were released by the USDA, with 33% of the crop rated good to excellent, representing a decline of 3% from the previous figure. Additionally, the fair category fell 3% as well. The poor category was raised by 6% to 24%.

  • The new Egyptian state wheat buyer, Mostakbal Misr, is prepared to supply 2.7 mmt of wheat between January and the end of April to GASC. A reported 777,000 mt have already been received. These supplies will go towards Egypt’s national subsidized bread program. Egypt is a top global wheat importer, with the USDA estimating 12.5 mmt of imports during the 24/25 season.

2024 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell a portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop today.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop.

  • Next Target: If the July contract can maintain its uptrend, the next sales target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Out with Force
Chicago wheat shattered its prolonged sideways grind with a powerful February surge, hitting key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. This decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average sets the stage for the MA to act as firm support on any near-term dips. Next upside targets loom near 650, with stronger resistance waiting in the 680-700 zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop on February 5 at 591.75 vs March ‘25.

  • No Official Targets: Following the latest sales recommendation, there are currently no active target ranges to make additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Two Sales: Grain Market Insider advised two sales last week—one on Monday and another on Friday—as the July ’25 contract extended its rally for a fourth straight week.

  • Key Levels: The July ’25 contract is now just 4 cents below the September high of 653.75, marking a 99-cent rebound from the December low.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Ignites Rally Potential
Kansas City wheat futures launched into February with bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and challenging multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could spark a run toward the coveted 700 mark. On the flip side, the 200-day MA offers initial support, with a sturdier safety net resting near 575.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop on February 10.

  • Hold: Sit tight on making any additional sales for now given the recent recommendation.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: No additional sales are recommended at this time, given the recent guidance.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout Confirmed
Spring wheat shook off its doldrums in late January, surging past its prolonged sideways range and flashing bullish signals. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average strengthens the breakout case. Initial support stands at the 200-day MA, with firmer footing near 615 — the top of the old range. On the upside, 650 is the first hurdle to clear before bulls set their sights on the elusive 700 mark.

Above: From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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2-18 End of Day: Grains Green to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures surged to start the week, with March closing above $5 for the first time in 16 months and December hitting its highest level since last June.

  • Soybeans: Closed higher supported by soybean oil and stronger corn and wheat futures. Export inspections and NOPA crush for January both came in below expectations.

  • Wheat: Strength in corn lifted wheat futures Tuesday, with all three classes posting modest gains. Bitter cold temperatures across the Plains fueled winterkill concerns and supported buying.

  • To see the updated U.S. 6-10 day precipitation and temperature outlooks as well as the 30-day percent of normal rainfall map for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • Targets shifted to May: As volume and open interest shift to the May ’25 contract, Grain Market Insider has adjusted its target range from the March ’25 to the May ’25 contract. Today’s market strength pushed May ’25 to the upper end of the 495–515 target range, triggering a recommendation to sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop today.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 new crop corn.

  • Major Resistance at 479: December ‘25 faces strong resistance at 479. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential as we move into the spring planting window.

  • Potential Call Option Strategy: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a possible call option recommendation. This strategy would hedge against existing sales while positioning you for upside exposure in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–3 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Money flowed into the corn market for the first trading day of the week as corn futures finished with strong gains. The March contract closed above the $5 level for the first time in 16 months. New crop December corn futures finished at their highest level since last June.

  • Strong demand continues to fuel the market. Weekly export inspections for February 13 reached 1.611 MMT (63.4 mb), the highest for that week in 43 years, with exports running 35% ahead of last year and above USDA targets.

  • Preliminary data suggests that corn exports from the U.S. may have broken a 35-year-old record for the month of January. It is estimated that the U.S. shipped over 6 MMT (236 mb) in the month of January.

  • Brazil’s second-crop corn planting is behind schedule at 36% complete (up from 20% last week but below last year’s 59%), as farmers push to finish planting within the ideal weather window despite recent improvements in weather conditions.

Corn Bulls Charge Ahead, Eyeing $5 Breakout
Corn’s rally since harvest shows no signs of slowing, fueled by aggressive fund buying and steady demand. Strong technical support remains at 475, with an added safety net near the 450-breakout zone. Now, the market is locked in on the $5 mark—a pivotal resistance level that could open the gates for the next leg higher. With bullish momentum firmly in the driver’s seat, the question remains: can the bulls break through, or will the rally hit a wall?

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 31,828 contracts between February 4 – February 11, bringing their total position to a net long 332,389 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

2025 Crop:

  • New Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher led by soybean oil and bullish sentiment in corn and wheat. March futures rebounded from overnight lows that saw prices down as much as 10 cents. Export inspections were disappointing and NOPA crush numbers were below expectations. Soybean meal was lower to end the day while soybean oil followed crude oil higher.

  • Today’s export inspections report showed a total of 26.5 million bushels of soybeans inspected for export for the week ending February 13. Total inspections in 24/25 are now at 1.323 mb which is up 12% from the previous year. This was below the lowest range of trade estimates as Brazilian harvest progresses.

  • Today’s NOPA Crush report saw January soybean crush coming in at 200.38 million bushels compared to the average trade guess of 204.5 mb. This was also below last month’s 206.6 mb but higher than last year’s crush at this time of 185.8 mb.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 28,554 contracts of soybeans which left them with a net long position of 28,475 contracts. They were net buyers of bean oil and sellers of meal.

Soybeans Eye Breakout After Repeated Tests
Front-month soybean futures are knocking on the door of the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A clean break above this level could ignite bullish momentum and signal a fresh leg higher. On any retreat, solid support is seen near $10, while initial resistance stands at $11, with a bigger hurdle looming near $11.40. The battle lines are drawn—will soybeans finally break free?

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 28,554 contracts between February 4 – February 11, bringing their total position to a net long 28,475 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures posted modest gains across all classes, supported by strength in corn, soybeans, and Matif wheat. Bitter cold in the Midwest and Plains continues to raise winterkill concerns in areas with limited snow cover.

  • Weekly wheat inspections reached 9.2 mb, bringing the 24/25 total to 546 mb, up 22% from last year and ahead of USDA’s 850 mb export target (up 20% YoY).

  • Diplomats from the U.S. and Russia met today in Saudi Arabia to discuss negotiations for ending the war in Ukraine. However, Ukrainian ambassadors were reportedly absent from these discussions, which raises questions as to what type of agreement will be reached, if any. Nevertheless, traders will be keeping an eye on these talks, as it could impact wheat trade in that region of the world.

  • IKAR reported Russian wheat export values rose $2/mt to $247/mt FOB last week and lowered February 2025 export estimates to 1.6-1.8 mmt from 2 mmt, well below February 2024’s 4.1 mmt.

  • Since their export season began on July 1, Ukraine has shipped 27.5 mmt of grain, according to their ag ministry. This is up about 2% year over year. Wheat exports in specific account for 11.5 mmt of that total, which is up 9% year over year.

2024 Crop:

  • No Change: The 680-705 range for March ‘25 remains the next potential target for a sale.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop.

  • Next Target: If the July contract can maintain its uptrend, the next sales target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Out with Force
Chicago wheat shattered its prolonged sideways grind with a powerful February surge, hitting key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. This decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average sets the stage for the MA to act as firm support on any near-term dips. Next upside targets loom near 650, with stronger resistance waiting in the 680-700 zone.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 7633 contracts between February 4 – February 11, bringing their total position to a net short 82,809 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop on February 5 at 591.75 vs March ‘25.

  • No Official Targets: Following the latest sales recommendation, there are currently no active target ranges to make additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Two Sales: Grain Market Insider advised two sales last week—one on Monday and another on Friday—as the July ’25 contract extended its rally for a fourth straight week.

  • Key Levels: The July ’25 contract is now just 4 cents below the September high of 653.75, marking a 99-cent rebound from the December low.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Ignites Rally Potential
Kansas City wheat futures launched into February with bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and challenging multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could spark a run toward the coveted 700 mark. On the flip side, the 200-day MA offers initial support, with a sturdier safety net resting near 575.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,733 contracts between February 4 – February 11, bringing their total position to a net short 30,248 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop on February 10.

  • Hold: Sit tight on making any additional sales for now given the recent recommendation.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop.

  • Hold: No additional sales are recommended at this time, given the recent guidance.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout Confirmed
Spring wheat shook off its doldrums in late January, surging past its prolonged sideways range and flashing bullish signals. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average strengthens the breakout case. Initial support stands at the 200-day MA, with firmer footing near 615 — the top of the old range. On the upside, 650 is the first hurdle to clear before bulls set their sights on the elusive 700 mark.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,172 contracts between February 4 – February 11, bringing their total position to a net short 10,912 contracts.

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2-14 End of Day: Wheat Leads Grains Higher Friday

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 17, in observance of Presidents Day

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: A strong rally in the wheat market provided support to corn futures, with March contracts testing resistance near the $5 mark.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans followed the broader grain complex higher on Friday, with soybean meal closing firm while soybean oil dipped alongside weaker crude oil prices.

  • Wheat: All three wheat classes surged sharply higher on Friday, driven by escalating tensions from a Russian drone strike and ongoing concerns about potential winterkill.

  • To see the updated U.S. corn and winter wheat areas in drought as well as the South America 7-day rainfall anomaly.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Last Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider last recommended a 2024 crop sale on February 4 at 494.50.

  • Another Attempt at 500: The March ‘25 contract made its eighth attempt to break the 500 level since January 29, reaching an intraday high today of 499.75 before slipping back below prior resistance at 498.50.

  • New Resistance at 499.75: With today’s new high, previous resistance at 498.50 has shifted up to 499.75. A decisive break above this level could open the door for a run toward the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • Strategy: Still no Plan B for now as Grain Market Insider recently recommended a sale within the current range, so the focus remains on giving March ‘25 a shot at clearing 499.75. If it breaks through, the next upside target would be 512, just below the 1996 high of 513.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 corn crop at the current price level.

  • Major Resistance at 479: December ‘25 faces strong resistance at 479. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential as we move into the spring planting window.

  • Potential Call Option Strategy: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a possible call option recommendation. This strategy would hedge against existing sales while positioning you for upside exposure in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–3 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A strong rally in the wheat market provided support to corn futures, but selling resistance at the $5.00 level on the March contract capped gains, leading to a weaker close in the afternoon. Despite this, March corn futures ended the week 8 ¾ cents higher, marking a positive weekly performance.

  • Demand stayed supportive in the corn market as the USDA announced another flash export sale on Friday morning. Colombia purchased 100,000 mt (3.9 mb) for corn for the current marketing year.

  • Despite recent rainfall, crop condition for Argentina corn continued to slide last week. Only 16% of the crop is in good condition, down from 25% last week. Approximately 1/3 of the Argentina corn crop is struggling from recent hot and dry weather.

  • The corn market still has a supportive tone given the global stocks-to-use ratios. Excluding China, global stocks-to-use is at a 29-year low at 7.9%, and with China large supply calculated in, stocks-to-use is at an 11-year low.

Corn Bulls in Control, Eyeing Key Resistance
The corn market’s post-harvest rally remains intact, driven by strong fund buying and robust demand. Solid support holds at 475, with additional footing near the breakout zone around 450. On the upside, prices are pressing against the 500 mark — a critical resistance level that could dictate the next move. With buyers still engaged, all eyes are on whether momentum can propel corn beyond this key threshold.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Break of 1039: This week the March ‘25 contract posted a daily closed below 1039 for the first time since January 17, setting a new monthly low by breaking the February 3 low of 1031.75. This marks the first lower low since the market bottomed on December 19, interrupting the previous pattern of higher highs and higher lows that led to the February 5 high of 1079.75.

  • Possible Trend Change: The break below the previous February low of 1031.75 could indicate a potential trend shift, but confirmation will require additional downside follow-through in the coming sessions.

2025 Crop:

  • Recent Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently advised selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop and purchasing call options. For full details, see the recommendations summary table below.

  • Current Recommendation: Hold off on any additional actions for now. With recent recommendations in place, Grain Market Insider is comfortable waiting for higher price levels, especially given how early it is in the year.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were higher to end the day ahead of the long Presidents Day weekend. The grain complex was primarily led higher by large gains in wheat after a Russian drone strike escalated tensions in Ukraine. Soybean meal was higher, while soybean oil followed crude oil lower.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report was poor for soybeans coming in below the range of analyst estimates at 7.7 million bushels. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and the Netherlands. Brazilian soybeans remain competitive with the US which is limiting export demand.

  • For the week, March soybeans lost 13-1/2 cents while November soybeans lost 5-1/2 cents. March soybean meal lost $5.50 to $295.90, and March soybean oil gained 0.09 cents to 46.07 cents. Pressure this week came from ongoing harvest in Brazil.

  • Yesterday, CONAB released its new estimates for 24/25 grain production this morning and lowered them from the previous month. The new estimates for soybeans are 166.014 mmt which compared to 166.328 mmt in January. This is below the USDA’s last estimate of 169 mmt.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures have repeatedly tested but failed to clear resistance at the 200-day moving average in recent weeks — a stubborn ceiling that has limited upside momentum for over 18 months. A decisive close above this level would be a strong signal for potential further upside. Support is expected to be near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three U.S. wheat classes closed sharply higher on Friday, fueled by reports of a Russian drone strike on the Chernobyl reactor shield. Although reports indicate the damage was not severe and no radiation leakage occurred, the market reacted to the news, likely driven by perception and fund short covering. Continued concerns about potential winterkill, a higher close for Matif wheat, and a weaker U.S. dollar also supported the rally.

  • ABARE is not expected to update their total Australian wheat production estimate until March. However, the Western Australian Grain Industry Association has said that their state’s wheat harvest totaled 12.45 mmt, exceeding the December estimate of only 10.8 mmt. Furthermore, their total 2024 grain production at 22.4 mmt is said to be the third largest on record.

  • FranceAgriMer rated 73% of the French soft wheat crop as good to very good, up from 68% a year ago, indicating a strong crop condition.

  • The 2025 Russian grain harvest could reach between 140-145 mmt, according to OZK Group. For reference, the 2024 crop totaled 128 mmt. This estimate is said to be on the optimistic side, but even conservative estimates project a bigger harvest than last year. On a related note, Russia is expected to export 55 mmt of grain during the 24/25 season, which includes 44 mmt of wheat.

2024 Crop:

  • No Change: The 680-705 range for March ‘25 remains the next potential target for a sale.

  • Slide Ended: The March ‘25 contract snapped its four-day losing streak today, posting a nearly four-cent gain. The overall pullback from the February 7 high appears constructive and orderly, which could set the stage for a move back higher.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop today.

  • First Sale Since September: This marks the first sales recommendation for the 2025 SRW wheat crop since September 3. With the July ‘25 contract up 19 cents this week and logging its sixth consecutive weekly gain, Grain Market Insider is recommending taking advantage of the 78-cent rally from the January low.

  • Next Target: If the July contract maintains its uptrend, the next target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Higher
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. This marks a significant weekly close above the 200-day moving average, which is expected to provide support during any near-term pullbacks.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop on February 5 at 591.75 vs March ‘25.

  • No Official Targets: Following the latest sales recommendation, there are currently no active target ranges to make additional sales.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop today.

  • Second Sale Recommended: Grain Market Insider is advising a second sale this week, as the July ‘25 contract closed up 23 cents today and marked its fourth consecutive weekly gain.

  • Key Levels: The July ‘25 contract is now just 11 cents shy of the September high of 653.75 and has rallied 92 cents from the December low.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Attempts to Break Out
Kansas City wheat futures kicked off February on a strong note, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. A decisive close above the October peak of 623 could open the door for a rally toward the 700 level. On the downside, initial support lies near the 200-day moving average, with stronger support around 575.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop.

  • Latest Sales Rec: This is the first sale recommendation that Grain Market Insider has made for the 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop since June 7 of last year.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop.

  • Stalling Momentum: The September ’25 contract has struggled to maintain its upward momentum, facing strong resistance around 660 for the past four sessions. With the price up about 8% from the January 3 low of 605, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2025 new crop Minneapolis wheat today. This marks the first recommendation for the 2025 crop since July 23 of last year.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout: Rally or False Start?
After months of treading water, spring wheat finally found its spark in late January, surging beyond its previous range and signaling a potential breakout. The next big test lies at the 200-day moving average near 625, a level that could either fuel further momentum or stand as a stubborn ceiling. However, any near-term weakness or a close back below 613 could snuff out the rally, pulling prices back into their familiar rangebound pattern.

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2-13 End of Day: Grains Respond Positively to Weekly Export Report

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 17, in observance of Presidents Day

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn closed the day quietly and mixed, following Tuesday’s neutral USDA report, and as traders await fresh news to bring back momentum in the market.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day higher, despite a weak weekly export sales report for the crop.

  • Wheat: Wheat closed the day with gains across all three classes, supported by a break in the US Dollar Index and a positive export sales report.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Last Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider last recommended a sale for the 2024 crop on February 4 at 494.50.

  • Strong Resistance at 498.50: Since January 29, the March ‘25 contract has attempted to break the 500 level seven times, but each effort has fallen short, with intraday highs ranging from 496.50 to 498.50. A decisive break above 498.50 could pave the way for a run toward the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • Strategy: No Plan B for now—Grain Market Insider recently recommended a sale within the current range, so the focus remains on giving March ‘25 a shot at clearing 498.50. If it breaks through, the next upside target would be 512, just below the 1996 high of 513.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 corn crop at the current price level.

  • Major Resistance at 479: December ‘25 faces strong resistance at 479. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential as we move into the spring planting window.

  • Potential Call Option Strategy: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a possible call option recommendation. This strategy would hedge against existing sales while positioning you for upside exposure in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–3 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn had a quiet, mixed close, with the front months gaining a few cents while December was down by less than a penny. Following Tuesday’s neutral USDA report, traders may be awaiting fresh news, with attention shifting back to South American weather and tariff talks.

  • Weekly corn exports came in at 79 mb, with 65 mb in old crop sales, and 14 mb in 25/26 sales. This was above expectations and YTD commitments are at 1.827 billion, up 28% from YA vs the USDA forecast of up 7%. The big buyers were Japan at 18 million, Korea at 13, and Mexico and Colombia each bought 10 million.

  • This morning CONAB released updated production estimates for Brazilian crops, raising the corn forecast by 2.5 mmt to 122 mmt and edging closer to the USDA projection of 126 mmt. However, the Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their corn production figure by 2 mmt to 46 mmt; the USDA stands at 50 mmt. These adjustments essentially offset each other, which may have contributed to today’s generally neutral trade.

  • The second half of February is expected to bring better rain chances to much of Argentina, offering relief from heat and dryness and helping to stabilize crops. However, it may be too late to undo any damage sustained up to this point. Meanwhile, Brazil’s forecast looks to improve over the next week, which should support a quicker pace for safrinha planting.

Corn Bulls in Control, Eyeing Key Resistance
The corn market’s post-harvest rally remains intact, driven by strong fund buying and robust demand. Solid support holds at 475, with additional footing near the breakout zone around 450. On the upside, prices are pressing against the 500 mark — a critical resistance level that could dictate the next move. With buyers still engaged, all eyes are on whether momentum can propel corn beyond this key threshold.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Break of 1039: The March ‘25 contract closed below 1039 for the first time since January 17, setting a new monthly low by breaking the February 3 low of 1031.75. This marks the first lower low since the market bottomed on December 19, interrupting the previous pattern of higher highs and higher lows that led to the February 5 high of 1079.75.

  • Possible Trend Change: The break below 1031.75 could indicate a potential trend shift, but confirmation would require additional downside follow-through in the coming sessions.

2025 Crop:

  • Recent Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently advised selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop and purchasing call options. For full details, see the recommendations summary table below.

  • Current Recommendation: Hold off on any additional actions for now. With recent recommendations in place, Grain Market Insider is comfortable waiting for higher price levels, especially given how early it is in the year.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans finished the day slightly higher after recovering from a lower overnight trade. Despite weak export sales, new CONAB estimates were released, showing a more favorable outlook compared to the USDA. Soybean meal closed lower, while soybean oil ended higher, even with a dip in crude oil prices.

  • Today’s export sales report was disappointing for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 6.8 million bushels of export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.9 mb for 25/26. This was well below the lowest analyst estimate, and primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and the Netherlands. Last week’s export shipments of 40.5 mb were above the 18.6 mb needed each month to meet the USDA’s expectations.

  • CONAB released its new estimates for 24/25 grain production this morning and lowered them from the previous month. The new estimates for soybeans are 166.014 mmt which compared to 166.328 mmt in January. This is below the USDA’s last estimate of 169 mmt.

  • South American weather has improved and prices in Brazil have become much more competitive with the US. The USDA is estimating Brazilian soybean production at 169 mmt while other firms are closer to 172 mmt, a huge crop either way.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures have repeatedly tested but failed to clear resistance at the 200-day moving average in recent weeks — a stubborn ceiling that has limited upside momentum for over 18 months. A decisive close above this level would be a strong signal for potential further upside. Support is expected to be near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted modest gains across all three classes, with Kansas City futures leading the way. In fact, wheat was the top performer in the grain complex today, benefiting from a break in the US Dollar Index and a decent export sales report. In other news, wire services reported this afternoon that the Senate has confirmed Brooke Rollins as the new head of the USDA.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 20.9 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, and an increase of 1.4 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 21.2 mb, which is above the 19.6 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal at 850 mb. Total sales commitments have reached 704 mb for 24/25, which is up 9% from last year, whereas the USDA is looking for a 20% increase.

  • According to the USDA, as of February 11, an estimated 23% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions; this is unchanged from the week prior. Meanwhile, spring wheat areas in drought decreased from 45% to 40% for that same time period. Given the large snowstorm that just moved through the central US, conditions may show further improvement next week.

  • In an update from FranceAgriMer, French soft wheat exports for the 24/25 season are anticipated to reach 9.74 mmt. This is up just slightly from their January estimate at 9.735 mmt. Furthermore, the stockpiles estimate was reduced from 2.89 mmt to 2.81 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • No Change: The 680-705 range for March ‘25 remains the next potential target for a sale.

  • Slide Ended: The March ‘25 contract snapped its four-day losing streak today, posting a nearly four-cent gain. The overall pullback from the February 7 high appears constructive and orderly, which could set the stage for a move back higher.

2025 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stuck in Neutral – For Now
Chicago wheat continues to tread familiar ground, locked in a tight range between 530 and 577. The market is searching for a spark, and a breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could open the door for a push toward 617. On the flip side, if support at 536 cracks, sellers may take control, driving prices down toward the 521–514 support zone. For now, wheat remains in wait-and-see mode, poised for its next big move.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop on February 5 at 591.75 vs March ‘25.

  • No Official Targets: Following the latest sales recommendation, there are currently no active target ranges to make additional sales.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Attempts to Break Out
Kansas City wheat futures kicked off February on a strong note, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. A decisive close above the October peak of 623 could open the door for a rally toward the 700 level. On the downside, initial support lies near the 200-day moving average, with stronger support around 575.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop.

  • Latest Sales Rec: This is the first sale recommendation that Grain Market Insider has made for the 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop since June 7 of last year.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop.

  • Stalling Momentum: The September ’25 contract has struggled to maintain its upward momentum, facing strong resistance around 660 for the past four sessions. With the price up about 8% from the January 3 low of 605, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2025 new crop Minneapolis wheat today. This marks the first recommendation for the 2025 crop since July 23 of last year.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout: Rally or False Start?
After months of treading water, spring wheat finally found its spark in late January, surging beyond its previous range and signaling a potential breakout. The next big test lies at the 200-day moving average near 625, a level that could either fuel further momentum or stand as a stubborn ceiling. However, any near-term weakness or a close back below 613 could snuff out the rally, pulling prices back into their familiar rangebound pattern.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above two: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-12 End of Day: Corn Recovers, Soybeans Continue Lower Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures rebounded today, recovering some of yesterday’s losses despite weakness in other grains. New crop contracts pushed to fresh highs for 2025.

  • Soybeans: Extended their decline on Wednesday, dropping by double digits. Ongoing harvest pressure in Brazil, along with weaker soybean prices in both Brazil and China, weighed on the market.

  • Wheat: Found support from stronger corn futures, helping prices stabilize and close near unchanged on the day.

  • To see the updated GRACE-Based shallow groundwater drought indictor for the U.S. as well as the 30-day percent of normal rainfall for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Last Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider last recommended a sale for the 2024 crop on February 4 at 494.50.

  • Strong Resistance at 498.50: Since January 29, the March ‘25 contract has attempted to break the 500 level seven times, but each effort has fallen short, with intraday highs ranging from 496.50 to 498.50. A decisive break above 498.50 could pave the way for a run toward the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • Strategy: No Plan B for now—Grain Market Insider recently recommended a sale within the current range, so the focus remains on giving March ‘25 a shot at clearing 498.50. If it breaks through, the next upside target would be 512, just below the 1996 high of 513.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 corn crop at the current price level.

  • Major Resistance at 479: December ‘25 faces strong resistance at 479. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential as we move into the spring planting window.

  • Potential Call Option Strategy: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a possible call option recommendation. This strategy would hedge against existing sales while positioning you for upside exposure in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–3 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures found support on Wednesday as buyers stepped back in, erasing most of Tuesday’s losses despite overall grain market weakness. Strong demand continues to underpin prices.

  • The corn market was disappointed in the lack of changes on Tuesday USDA Supply/demand report, but traders may have stepped into the corn market on the belief that the USDA will need to reduce carryout in future reports as both export and ethanol demand have remained strong.

  • The USDA announced a flash corn export sales on Wednesday morning. USDA stated that unknown destinations purchased 130,320 mt (5.1 mb) of corn for the current marketing year. 

  • On Thursday morning, the USDA will release weekly corn export sales totals. Expectations for the week ending Feb 6, the new exports sales range from 800,000 – 1.7 MMT. Last week’s sales totaled 1.477 MMt as U.S. corn export demand has remained supportive.

  • Weekly ethanol production fell to 1.082 million bpd in the week ending February 7. This was down from 1.112 million bpd the previous week.  Corn used in the production of ethanol was estimated at 104.3 million bushels for the week.  The current pace is still trending ahead of the target set by the USDA for the marketing year.

Corn Bulls in Control, Eyeing Key Resistance
The corn market’s post-harvest rally remains intact, driven by strong fund buying and robust demand. Solid support holds at 475, with additional footing near the breakout zone around 450. On the upside, prices are pressing against the 500 mark — a critical resistance level that could dictate the next move. With buyers still engaged, all eyes are on whether momentum can propel corn beyond this key threshold.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Break of 1039: The March ‘25 contract closed below 1039 for the first time since January 17, setting a new monthly low by breaking the February 3 low of 1031.75. This marks the first lower low since the market bottomed on December 19, interrupting the previous pattern of higher highs and higher lows that led to the February 5 high of 1079.75.

  • Possible Trend Change: The break below 1031.75 could indicate a potential trend shift, but confirmation would require additional downside follow-through in the coming sessions.

2025 Crop:

  • Recent Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently advised selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop and purchasing call options. For full details, see the recommendations summary table below.

  • Current Recommendation: Hold off on any additional actions for now. With recent recommendations in place, Grain Market Insider is comfortable waiting for higher price levels, especially given how early it is in the year.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans extended their losses for a second consecutive session following Tuesday’s WASDE report, which left U.S. carryout unchanged despite trade expectations for a decline. Pressure continues from Brazil’s ongoing harvest and signs of a peak in soybean prices on China’s Dalian exchange. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower.

  • Private exporters reported a sale of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year this morning. However, U.S. export sales have begun to slow as Brazil’s export season gains momentum.

  • In China, soybean futures on the Dalian exchange may be topping out. In addition, Brazilian soybeans are 80 cents cheaper per bushel compared to the US. China has primarily been a buy of Brazilian and Argentinian soybeans.

  • Weather in Argentina has improved with rain falling and more in the forecast. While the USDA reduced their estimates for Argentinian soybean production yesterday, a large crop is still expected, and Argentinian soybean meal prices have reached their lowest levels since Covid.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures have repeatedly tested but failed to clear resistance at the 200-day moving average in recent weeks — a stubborn ceiling that has limited upside momentum for over 18 months. A decisive close above this level would be a strong signal for potential further upside. Support is expected to be near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures fluctuated throughout the session but ultimately closed with small losses, pressured by weaker soybean prices, easing winterkill concerns, and reports of potential Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations. A sharp decline in Matif wheat futures also failed to offer support to U.S. prices.

  • The snowstorm moving across the central US should provide snow cover to help insulate much of the winter wheat crop before the upcoming frigid temperatures. This has reduced the concern on traders’ minds of damage to the winter wheat crop. Furthermore, the Black Sea region is expected to receive good snow cover to help protect their wheat too.

  • News outlets have reported that President Trump had a phone call today with Putin, in which they discussed the Ukraine war among other topics. Reportedly, Putin has agreed to begin negotiations to end the war. And though Ukraine has already been highly successful in shipping grain in the face of logistics issues, this still may be perceived as negative to prices.

  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports as of February 9 have reached just 13 mmt since the season began on July 1. This represents a 36% drop from the 20.4 mmt shipped for the same timeframe last year.

2024 Crop:

  • No Change: The 680-705 range for March ‘25 remains the next potential target for a sale.

  • Uptrend Intact: Despite a four-day pullback, the March ‘25 contract continues to hold a pattern of higher highs and higher lows.

2025 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stuck in Neutral – For Now
Chicago wheat continues to tread familiar ground, locked in a tight range between 530 and 577. The market is searching for a spark, and a breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could open the door for a push toward 617. On the flip side, if support at 536 cracks, sellers may take control, driving prices down toward the 521–514 support zone. For now, wheat remains in wait-and-see mode, poised for its next big move.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Attempts to Break Out
Kansas City wheat futures kicked off February on a strong note, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. A decisive close above the October peak of 623 could open the door for a rally toward the 700 level. On the downside, initial support lies near the 200-day moving average, with stronger support around 575.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop.

  • Latest Sales Rec: This is the first sale recommendation that Grain Market Insider has made for the 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop since June 7 of last year.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop.

  • Stalling Momentum: The September ’25 contract has struggled to maintain its upward momentum, facing strong resistance around 660 for the past four sessions. With the price up about 8% from the January 3 low of 605, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2025 new crop Minneapolis wheat today. This marks the first recommendation for the 2025 crop since July 23 of last year.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout: Rally or False Start?
After months of treading water, spring wheat finally found its spark in late January, surging beyond its previous range and signaling a potential breakout. The next big test lies at the 200-day moving average near 625, a level that could either fuel further momentum or stand as a stubborn ceiling. However, any near-term weakness or a close back below 613 could snuff out the rally, pulling prices back into their familiar rangebound pattern.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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2-11 End of Day: WASDE Sparks Grain Market Correction

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Long liquidation pressured corn futures lower after the USDA’s WASDE report left the U.S. corn balance sheet unchanged from last month.

  • Soybeans: Improving weather in Argentina and a neutral WASDE report pushed soybean futures lower on Tuesday. Soybean meal slipped back below the $300 mark, while soybean oil managed to end slightly higher.

  • Wheat: A slight reduction in wheat ending stocks in today’s WASDE report wasn’t enough to spark a rally, as declining corn and soybean prices added additional pressure to the market.

  • To see the updated 10-day GEFS total accumulated precipitation forecast for South America as well as the 8–14-day U.S. temperature and precipitation outlooks, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • Sales Target Range: With the March ‘25 contract facing continued resistance at the lower end of the 495 – 515 target range, Grain Market Insider recommended making a sale on Tuesday. The upper end of the target range at 515 remains a key level to watch. If March ‘25 corn can close over the recent high of 498.50, Grain Market Insider will consider the 515 area as another potential sales target.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart remains between the recent high of 498.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION: Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 corn crop today.

  • Target Range Hit: The December ’25 contract tested the 473–479 target range today, reaching an intraday high of 474. Although it couldn’t sustain those gains, the session still closed at 470.25, marking the second-highest close since the rally began on November 29 from a low of 428. With prices now up nearly 10% from that low, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2025 new crop corn today.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A strong close above this level could open the door to broader upside potential as we head into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge against existing sales and get you repositioned to the topside in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–3 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The front end of the corn market came under strong selling pressure as the USDA WASDE report failed to make any changes to the U.S. corn balance sheet. The weak technical close and selling momentum into the end of the session could leave the corn market open to additional selling pressure going into tomorrow’s session.

  • The USDA kept 2024/25 corn ending stocks at 1.540 billion bushels, while analysts had expected a 15 mb reduction due to strong demand. The higher-than-anticipated carryout led to long liquidation.

  • The USDA lowered forecasted production for Argentina by 1 MMT and Brazil by 1 MMT reflecting the difficult start to the growing season in some regions. However, February weather conditions in both regions have improved.

  • The cash market has seen soft basis action, which could be an indicator that corn supplies are in the pipeline and front-end demand could be cooling. The corn market is moving toward a key pricing window as the March contract nears First notice day at the end of February.

Corn Bulls in Control, Eyeing Key Resistance
The corn market’s post-harvest rally remains intact, driven by strong fund buying and robust demand. Solid support holds at 475, with additional footing near the breakout zone around 450. On the upside, prices are pressing against the 500 mark — a critical resistance level that could dictate the next move. With buyers still engaged, all eyes are on whether momentum can propel corn beyond this key threshold.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendations: Grain Market Insider recommended selling portions of your 2024 soybean crop on January 14 at 1047.50 and again on January 22 at 1056.00, both against the March ‘25 contract. The average of these two sales is 1051.75, which is 2-½ cents above today’s March ‘25 closing price.  If you missed either of the January sales recommendations, now is still a good time to catch up, as the March ‘25 contract remains within that price range. Additionally, with a USDA WASDE report set for release tomorrow, securing a sale ahead of time could be wise—especially if the USDA reports numbers that put pressure on the soybean market.

  • Off Highs: The March ‘25 contract finished last week up nearly 8 cents, but 30 cents off the high of 1079.75.

  • Resistance: The March ‘25 contract was again unable to secure a weekly close above the start of the resistance band at 1060 last week. The last time the front-month contract closed above this level on a weekly continuous chart was the week of September 23 last year.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying November ‘25 1100 soybean calls and November ‘25 1180 soybean calls in equal quantities with a total net spend of approximately 88 cents plus commission and fees.   Buying these call options will reopen the topside on the sales recommendation made two weeks ago.  Also, buying two strikes provides the option to leg out of the lower strike once it covers the cost of the upper strike. 

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop on January 29 at 1063.50 vs November ‘25.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended lower after a neutral WASDE report failed to provide the bullish support traders were hoping for. Prices were up earlier in the day but retreated as the report offered no surprises. Soybean meal led the decline on improving Argentinian weather, while soybean oil found support from rising crude oil prices.

  • The WASDE report held U.S. ending stocks steady at 380 mb, despite market expectations for a slight reduction. Global soybean ending stocks dropped to 124.3 mmt from 128.4 mmt, in line with forecasts.

  • Regarding South America, the USDA did make some changes to South American production. In Argentina, soybean production was lowered by 3 mmt from last month to 49.0 mmt. This was expected given the recent dry spell in the country. In Brazil, soybean production estimates were left unchanged at 169 mmt, but some analysts have estimates closer to 171 mmt.

  • Brazil is reportedly 15% done with its 24/25 soybean harvest as of February 6. Prices in the country have been firm as strong export demand has kept supply limited.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures have repeatedly tested but failed to clear resistance at the 200-day moving average in recent weeks — a stubborn ceiling that has limited upside momentum for over 18 months. A decisive close above this level would be a strong signal for potential further upside. Support is expected to be near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes, as a relatively uneventful WASDE report failed to generate much buying interest despite being mildly supportive. The broader weakness in corn and soybeans likely added pressure to the wheat complex by the session’s end.

  • The report lowered U.S. 2024/25 wheat ending stocks by 4 mb to 794 mb, while traders had expected a slight increase to 800 mb. Global wheat carryout also declined from 258.8 mmt to 257.6 mmt, contrary to trade expectations for a steady figure.

  • US wheat exports were unchanged at 850 mb, with imports also holding steady at 130 mb. Australian wheat production was untouched at 32 mmt, but Argentina’s did increase by 0.2 mmt to 17.7 mmt. Meanwhile, Russian and Ukrainian exports were both dropped by 0.5 mmt, to 45.5 mmt and 15.5 mmt respectively.

  • Brazilian wheat prices remain firm amid limited supplies. January wheat imports totaled 716,900 mt, marking the highest monthly volume since April 2020 and the largest January total since 2008.

  • According to the French farm ministry, their estimate of soft winter wheat plantings has increased. For the 2025 harvest, the forecast was raised from 4.51 million hectares in December, to 4.57 million hectares as of Tuesday. Furthermore, this new estimate is 10% above 2024 and 0.4% above the five-year average.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 680-705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in SRW supports 680–705 as a realistic and achievable target. In the last three instances where the Funds held a similar net short position and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 140 cents, 90 cents, and 170 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June, providing ample time for potential upside.

2025 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stuck in Neutral – For Now
Chicago wheat continues to tread familiar ground, locked in a tight range between 530 and 577. The market is searching for a spark, and a breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could open the door for a push toward 617. On the flip side, if support at 536 cracks, sellers may take control, driving prices down toward the 521–514 support zone. For now, wheat remains in wait-and-see mode, poised for its next big move.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Attempts to Break Out
Kansas City wheat futures kicked off February on a strong note, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. A decisive close above the October peak of 623 could open the door for a rally toward the 700 level. On the downside, initial support lies near the 200-day moving average, with stronger support around 575.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop.

  • Latest Sales Rec: This is the first sale recommendation that Grain Market Insider has made for the 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop since June 7 of last year.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop today.

  • Stalling Momentum: The September ’25 contract has struggled to maintain its upward momentum, facing strong resistance around 660 for the past four sessions. With the price up about 8% from the January 3 low of 605, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2025 new crop Minneapolis wheat today. This marks the first recommendation for the 2025 crop since July 23 of last year.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout: Rally or False Start?
After months of treading water, spring wheat finally found its spark in late January, surging beyond its previous range and signaling a potential breakout. The next big test lies at the 200-day moving average near 625, a level that could either fuel further momentum or stand as a stubborn ceiling. However, any near-term weakness or a close back below 613 could snuff out the rally, pulling prices back into their familiar rangebound pattern.

Other Charts / Weather

South America 10-day GEFS Total Accumulated Precipitation, in millimeters, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

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2-10 End of Day: Corn Starts the Week Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: A daily flash sale to Mexico gave corn a positive start to the week, with traders positioning ahead of Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report.

  • Soybeans: Futures closed near unchanged Monday as the market awaits fresh insights from the upcoming WASDE report.

  • Wheat: Despite strong weekly export inspections and gains in Paris wheat futures, all three U.S. wheat contracts ended the session lower, led by losses in Kansas City wheat.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the week 2 South America precipitation forecast scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • Sales Target Range: With the March ‘25 contract facing continued resistance at the lower end of the 495 – 515 target range, Grain Market Insider recommended making a sale on Tuesday. The upper end of the target range at 515 remains a key level to watch. If March ‘25 corn can close over the recent high of 498.50, Grain Market Insider will consider the 515 area as another potential sales target.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart remains between the recent high of 498.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • Be Ready: Stay alert for a sales recommendation in the 473–479 range vs December ‘25.

  • Downside Support: Key support for the December ‘25 contract remains at 453.75 — an important level to watch in the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A strong close above this level could open the door to broader upside potential as we head into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge against existing sales and get you repositioned to the topside in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–3 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures started the week on a positive note, clawing back some of Friday’s losses as strong demand and tightening supply prospects kept the market supported.

  • USDA announced a flash export sale of corn om Manday morning. Mexico stepped into the export market and purchased 365,000 MT (14.4 MB) of U.S. corn for the current marketing year.

  • Weekly export inspections remain solid in a seasonally strong window. For the week ending February 6, the USDA reported 1.334 MMT (52.5 MB) inspected, landing at the high end of expectations. Total inspections for the marketing year now sit at 909 MB — up 34% from last year and ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA export projections.

  • On Tuesday, the USDA will release the next WASDE report. Expectations are for a slight reduction in corn carryout, reflecting the good pace of demand. The grain markets may be more interested to see if the USDA makes any adjustments to South American production.

Corn Rally Holding Strong as Buyers Stay Engaged
The corn market’s uptrend has been firing on all cylinders since harvest, fueled by eager fund buying and solid demand. Support is firmly in place at 475, with an extra layer of reinforcement near the breakout zone around 450. On the upside, prices are knocking on the door of 500, a key resistance level that could determine the next leg of this rally. For now, the bulls remain in control, but the market is watching closely to see if momentum can push corn through the next hurdle.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 13,496 contracts between January 28 – February 4, bringing their total position to a net long 364,217 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendations: Grain Market Insider recommended selling portions of your 2024 soybean crop on January 14 at 1047.50 and again on January 22 at 1056.00, both against the March ‘25 contract. The average of these two sales is 1051.75, which is 2-½ cents above today’s March ‘25 closing price.  If you missed either of the January sales recommendations, now is still a good time to catch up, as the March ‘25 contract remains within that price range. Additionally, with a USDA WASDE report set for release tomorrow, securing a sale ahead of time could be wise—especially if the USDA reports numbers that put pressure on the soybean market.

  • Off Highs: The March ‘25 contract finished last week up nearly 8 cents, but 30 cents off the high of 1079.75.

  • Resistance: The March ‘25 contract was again unable to secure a weekly close above the start of the resistance band at 1060 last week. The last time the front-month contract closed above this level on a weekly continuous chart was the week of September 23 last year.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying November ‘25 1100 soybean calls and November ‘25 1180 soybean calls in equal quantities with a total net spend of approximately 88 cents plus commission and fees.   Buying these call options will reopen the topside on the sales recommendation made two weeks ago.  Also, buying two strikes provides the option to leg out of the lower strike once it covers the cost of the upper strike. 

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop on January 29 at 1063.50 vs November ‘25.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the two front months unchanged and the deferred contracts slightly lower. Prices rebounded from overnight lows that followed President Trump’s announcement regarding new tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum. Both soybean meal and oil finished the day slightly lower.

  • Estimates for Tomorrow’s WASDE report suggest U.S. soybean ending stocks will decrease by 3 mb to 378 mb, while a potential increase in export demand is also expected. Global ending stocks are projected to remain unchanged or slightly lower. Big changes are not expected after last month’s bombshell yield adjustment.

  • In Brazil, weather has begun to dry up as producers continue with harvest. 16.78% of the planted area has now been harvested, and this compares to 23.83% last year at this time. The largest delays are in the country’s biggest producing state of Mato Grosso.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of just 533 contracts of soybeans which increased their net long position to 57,029 contracts as of February 4. Over the past 5 days, funds are estimated to have kept that position mostly unchanged.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures have repeatedly tested but failed to clear resistance at the 200-day moving average in recent weeks — a stubborn ceiling that has limited upside momentum for over 18 months. A decisive close above this level would be a strong signal for potential further upside. Support is expected to be near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 533 contracts between January 28 – February 4, bringing their total position to a netlong 57,029 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower led by Kansas City futures; this was despite the gains in Matif wheat and good export inspections. The US contracts were likely under pressure from expectations for better US and Black Sea snow cover this week, in addition to futures having become technically overbought. Also, tomorrow’s USDA report is expected to be relatively neutral for wheat and did not stir up any buying interest today.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 19.7 mb bring the 24/25 total inspections figure to 535 mb, which is up 24% from last year. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace, and 24/25 exports are estimated at 850 mb, up 20% from the year prior.

  • While frigid temperatures are expected across the U.S. Southern Plains this week, incoming snow should help insulate the winter wheat crop and prevent significant damage, potentially contributing to today’s market weakness. Similar conditions are expected in the Black Sea region.

  • On a bullish note, IKAR has reported that Russian wheat export values finished last week $2 higher at $245 per mt. They also decreased their estimate of Russian wheat exports by 0.5 mmt to 43 mmt; for reference the USDA is using a 46 mmt figure. Meanwhile, APK-Inform increased their forecast of Ukrainian 24/25 wheat exports by 0.1 mmt to 14.5 mmt.

  • According to consultancy ProZerno, the Russian 2025 grain harvest is estimated at 122.9 mmt, which would be down 1.7% from 2024. Wheat specifically is expected to fall 6% to 77.4 mmt. Additionally, they are expecting about 8.2% of the winter wheat crop to be lost, with a harvest on 16.1 million hectares.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 680-705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in SRW supports 680–705 as a realistic and achievable target. In the last three instances where the Funds held a similar net short position and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 140 cents, 90 cents, and 170 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June, providing ample time for potential upside.

2025 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stuck in Neutral – For Now
Chicago wheat continues to tread familiar ground, locked in a tight range between 530 and 577. The market is searching for a spark, and a breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could open the door for a push toward 617. On the flip side, if support at 536 cracks, sellers may take control, driving prices down toward the 521–514 support zone. For now, wheat remains in wait-and-see mode, poised for its next big move.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 20,340 contracts between January 28 – February 4, bringing their total position to a net short 90,442 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Weekly Gain: The March ’25 contract closed the week 25 cents higher, making it a solid opportunity for a sale. If the market continues its upward momentum, the next target range is 650–700.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in HRW reinforces 650–700 as a realistic and achievable target. Historically, when the Funds held a net short position exceeding 40,000 contracts and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 100 cents, 100 cents, 160 cents, and 70 cents in the last four instances.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June, providing ample time for potential upside.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop today.

  • WASDE tomorrow: The July ’25 contract has risen nearly 67 cents from its December low, closing at 616.50 today. With tomorrow’s USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates report adding uncertainty to the market, this current rally presents a good opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 KC wheat crop. This is the first sale recommendation for 2025 KC wheat since October 2 of last year.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Shows Signs of Life
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with the early February rally above the 200-day moving average a test of the October highs near 620 looks likely, support should appear at the top end of the recent range near 580.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 6,405 contracts between January 28 – February 4, bringing their total position to a net short 35,981 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop today.

  • Rally: The front-month contract has climbed nearly 50 cents from its January low, closing today at 625.25 vs March ‘25. Over the last four trading sessions, the March ‘25 contract has struggled to break through the 630 level, and with upside momentum stalling and the uncertainty of tomorrow’s WASDE report, this year-to-date rally presents a good opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop. This is the first sale recommendation that Grain Market Insider has made for the 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop since June 7 of last year.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • No Change: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout: Rally or False Start?
After months of treading water, spring wheat finally found its spark in late January, surging beyond its previous range and signaling a potential breakout. The next big test lies at the 200-day moving average near 625, a level that could either fuel further momentum or stand as a stubborn ceiling. However, any near-term weakness or a close back below 613 could snuff out the rally, pulling prices back into their familiar rangebound pattern.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 8,158 contracts between January 28 – February 4, bringing their total position to a net short 15,084 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

South America week two forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-07 End of Day: Grains Finished the Week Lower Across the Board

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn prices closed lower today, pressured by favorable weather conditions in South America, which provided the crops with much-needed relief.

  • Soybeans: Soybean prices ended the day lower, pressured by a stronger dollar and improved weather conditions in Argentina following recent rains.

  • Wheat: Wheat prices closed lower today, weighed down by declines in the corn and soybean markets, along with added pressure from a stronger US dollar.

  • To see the updated 10-day GEFS total accumulated precipitation for South America as well as the 6–10-day temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • Sales Target Range: With the March ‘25 contract facing continued resistance at the lower end of the 495 – 515 target range, Grain Market Insider recommended making a sale on Tuesday. The upper end of the target range at 515 remains a key level to watch. If March ‘25 corn can close over the recent high of 498.50, Grain Market Insider will consider the 515 area as another potential sales target.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart remains between the recent high of 498.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • Be Ready: Stay alert for a sales recommendation in the 473–479 range vs December ‘25.

  • Downside Support: Key support for the December ‘25 contract remains at 453.75 — an important level to watch in the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A strong close above this level could open the door to broader upside potential as we head into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge against existing sales and get you repositioned to the topside in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 2–4 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices finished 4-7 cents lower heading into the weekend on pressure from rain in South America and weakness in the wheat complex.

  • President Trump’s USTR nominee, Jamieson Greer, made comments yesterday that he favors a strong dollar policy, which cooled buying interest overnight and into Friday’s session.

  • If an agreement can be reached with Mexico before the implementation of tariffs, we could see Mexico start to buy even more corn in 2025 compared to the record 25.3 mmt they purchased in 2024.

  • Much of the Northern Midwest is seeing drought conditions and was highlighted by yesterday’s drought monitor. Drought conditions were 4% worse than last week to 46%. This compares to the 27% of the corn area in the US seeing drought conditions the same week last year.

  • The Mato Grosso region of Brazil continues to push forward with planting their second crop. Corn planting is now seen at 23% complete, up 6% from last week, but still below the 5-year average of 33% done by this time.

Corn Rally Holding Strong as Buyers Stay Engaged
The corn market’s uptrend has been firing on all cylinders since harvest, fueled by eager fund buying and solid demand. Support is firmly in place at 475, with an extra layer of reinforcement near the breakout zone around 450. On the upside, prices are knocking on the door of 500, a key resistance level that could determine the next leg of this rally. For now, the bulls remain in control, but the market is watching closely to see if momentum can push corn through the next hurdle.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider advised selling another portion of your 2024 soybean crop last week.

  • Off Highs: The March ‘25 contract finished the week up nearly 8 cents, but 30 cents off this week’s high of 1079.75.

  • Resistance: The March ‘25 contract was again unable to secure a weekly close above the start of the resistance band at 1060 this week. The last time the front-month contract closed above this level on a weekly continuous chart was the week of September 23 last year.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying November ‘25 1100 soybean calls and November ‘25 1180 soybean calls in equal quantities with a total net spend of approximately 88 cents plus commission and fees. The November ‘25 contract closed over 1071 resistance on Tuesday, which opens the door of opportunity for a continued move higher.  Buying these call options will reopen the topside on the sales recommendation made last week.  Also, buying two strikes provides the option to leg out of the lower strike once it covers the cost of the upper strike. 

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean prices ended the day lower, though they have remained relatively rangebound in recent weeks, with the March contract trading between $10.75 and $10.40. The stronger dollar likely weighed on the entire grain complex, and funds may have taken profits ahead of the weekend. While soybean meal closed lower, soybean oil ended the day higher.

  • Estimates for Tuesday’s WASDE report suggest U.S. soybean ending stocks will decrease by 3 mb to 378 mb, while a potential increase in export demand is also expected. Global ending stocks are projected to remain unchanged or slightly lower.

  • In South America, Argentinian soybean production was last estimated at 52 mmt but may slip due to recent dry weather. The Brazilian soybean crop is estimated at 170 mmt. Safras has pegged production higher at 174.88 mmt, but the recent harvest delays may have cut that number slightly.

  • Argentinian weather has improved recently with rains, but the dry stretch damaged the soy crop, and good to excellent ratings have fallen to just 17% while poor to very poor conditions have increased to 32%.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures struggled to break above resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level that has capped gains for over 18 months. However, early February price action has shown enough strength to close above this key level, signaling potential for further upside. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with small to modest losses, pressured by lower corn and soybean futures. Additionally, a higher US Dollar added to pressure. All three March wheat contracts are considered technically overbought and may also be due for a correction to the downside.

  • According to Stats Canada, December wheat stocks came in at 24.48 mmt, which was above both the expected 23 mmt, and last year’s 20.68 mmt figure.

  • The average WASDE pre-report estimate for US 24/25 wheat ending stocks is projected at 800 mb, which would be up 2 mb from the January report and well above the 696 mb from the 23/24 season. Global wheat carryout is expected to show a slight decrease to 258.7 mmt from 258.8 mmt in January.

  • The Russian ag ministry has increased the wheat export tax by 1% to 3984.20 Rubles/mt through February 18. In related news, the Russian wheat export quota is expected to begin on February 15.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 680-705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in SRW supports 680–705 as a realistic and achievable target. In the last three instances where the Funds held a similar net short position and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 140 cents, 90 cents, and 170 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June, providing ample time for potential upside.

2025 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stuck in Neutral – For Now
Chicago wheat continues to tread familiar ground, locked in a tight range between 530 and 577. The market is searching for a spark, and a breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could open the door for a push toward 617. On the flip side, if support at 536 cracks, sellers may take control, driving prices down toward the 521–514 support zone. For now, wheat remains in wait-and-see mode, poised for its next big move.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Weekly Gain: The March ’25 contract closed the week 25 cents higher, making it a solid opportunity for a sale. If the market continues its upward momentum, the next target range is 650–700.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in HRW reinforces 650–700 as a realistic and achievable target. Historically, when the Funds held a net short position exceeding 40,000 contracts and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 100 cents, 100 cents, 160 cents, and 70 cents in the last four instances.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June, providing ample time for potential upside.

2025 Crop:

  • No Change: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop remains 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Shows Signs of Life
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with the early February rally above the 200-day moving average a test of the October highs near 620 looks likely, support should appear at the top end of the recent range near 580.

2024 Crop:

  • Continue to hold. Grain Market Insider continues to recommend holding off on additional sales for the 2024 HRS wheat crop. The March ’25 contract has gained approximately 44 cents over the past three weeks, supporting a wait-and-see approach going into next week.

  • Short Covering Potential: The Funds’ massive net short position in HRS continues to provide upside potential. The last time they held a short position of this size and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied about 110 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • No Change: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout: Rally or False Start?
After months of treading water, spring wheat finally found its spark in late January, surging beyond its previous range and signaling a potential breakout. The next big test lies at the 200-day moving average near 625, a level that could either fuel further momentum or stand as a stubborn ceiling. However, any near-term weakness or a close back below 613 could snuff out the rally, pulling prices back into their familiar rangebound pattern.

Other Charts / Weather

Above:  South America 10-day GEFS Total Accumulated Precipitation, in millimeters, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

Above:  US temperature and precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.