|

4-11 End of Day: Grains Rally into Weekend on Weaker U.S. Dollar

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures closed the week with strong gains, as fresh money flowed into the grain markets following Thursday’s friendly USDA Supply and Demand report.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended the week sharply higher, supported by an early-morning sale to unknown destinations and a sharply lower U.S. dollar.

  • Wheat: Wheat climbed higher to end the week, led by gains in Chicago futures. Support came from another sharp drop in the U.S. dollar, and spillover strength from corn and soybeans.

  • To see the updated Grace Based Root Zone Soil Moisture Map for South America as well as the 7-day U.S. precipitation outlook scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, take advantage of today’s additional price strength as another catch-up opportunity. Six of the seven prior sales recommendations were made between 487 and 512 (see below recommendations table). With the May contract pushing above the lower end of that range today, this is a second chance to get caught up at price levels previously recommended by Grain Market Insider.

    • No Changes: Still no new recommendations for making an eighth sale. Patience is still advised if you are in line with the seven sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • First Catch-Up Opportunity: If you haven’t made all six sales to date, aim for 459 vs December as your first catch-up target.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a seventh sale for the new crop. Continue to stay patient if you are in line with the six sales recommendations.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a third sale for the new crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished with strong gains to end the week as money flow moved into the grain markets after yesterday’s friendly USDA Supply/Demand report. July corn futures ended at their highest level since February 27, finishing just shy of the key psychological 500 mark. For the week, July gained 29 ¾ cents.

  • The USDA lowered 2024-25 corn carryout to 1.465 BB, coming in below trade expectations. The tighter supply outlook helped trigger fresh buying, with many analysts suggesting carryout could tighten further amid continued strong demand.

  • New crop prices led the rally Friday, supported by growing concerns over longer-term supply. With a smaller old crop carry-in, new crop balance sheets could tighten quickly if production disappoints—even with the large acreage forecasted this spring.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index broke to its lowest levels since 2022, before finding some support. A friendly inflation report helped trigger a weaker dollar in the Friday session. The weaker dollar should help keep U.S. corn export prices competitive globally despite the recent tariff activity.

  • Despite a counter move by the Chinese government raising tariffs to 145% on U.S. goods on Thursday, the grain markets shook off the news. In the near-term, China has “zero” bushels of old crop corn on the export books, and minimal soybeans. The longer-term demand could be a factor if the current trade war continues.

Corn Starts April Strong
After spending much of March hovering just above key support at 450, corn futures have surged higher to start April. A friendly April WASDE report—highlighting stronger demand—has helped fuel the rally, with futures pushing through resistance at the 50-day moving average. The next upside target is the February highs just above 500, while near-term support is expected to be near 470, at the upper end of the previous trading range.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you haven’t made all three sales to date, aim for 1047 vs May as your first catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 14.

    • One Change: The target to buy call options on a close above 1079.75 has been cancelled, leaving the 1107 sales target as the only active target.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 the third. These targets remain unchanged, and Grain Market Insider remains optimistic that the November contract could still reach them.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the week on a higher note across the entire soy complex supported by the early morning sale of 121,000 mt of U.S. soybeans to an unknown destination and by a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar, which fell to multiyear lows.

  • Soybean futures also gained support as strong Chinese demand drove Brazilian soybean prices sharply higher, lifting them to a premium of nearly 20 cents per bushel to the U.S. offerings. Additionally, market chatter suggests China may continue large-scale purchases of Brazilian soybeans through September 2025.

  • As China ramps up its soybean purchases from South America, fewer South American soybeans remain available for the rest of the world—potentially opening the door for increased demand for U.S. soybeans. Brazilian farmers report having already sold over 50% of this year’s soybean harvest, marking a record for April.

  • Upcoming weather may pose a bearish factor for both U.S. and Brazilian growing regions, with forecasts predicting periods of moisture and a slight increase in temperatures across Brazil. While some areas in the Midwest and Eastern U.S. are dealing with saturated soils, it remains too early to give these conditions significant weight. However, with U.S. soybean acreage expected to drop to a five-year low, even minor weather issues in the U.S. this summer could tighten both the U.S. and global balance sheets.

  • Adding to an already thin bullish fundamental outlook is another reduction in Argentina’s soybean production forecast, lowered by 1 million metric tons due to decreased acreage. Additionally, frost may have affected some of the production in the region.

Volatile Start to April for Soybeans
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April following newly announced tariffs, breaking key support near the 1000 level that had held firm through March. However, early April strength has since fueled a rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages—most notably the 200-day, which has capped rallies over the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now targeting the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average should offer support on any spring pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat climbed higher, led by Chicago futures. Strength can be attributed to a higher close for Paris milling wheat futures, another sharp decline for the U.S. dollar, and spillover support from higher corn and soybeans. Additionally, news outlets are reporting that Russian winter crops may have seen some hail damage earlier in the week.

  • According to the USDA as of April 8, an estimated 32% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions – this is up 1% from the week prior. Spring wheat production areas in drought increased from 39% to 43% during the same timeframe.

  • Ukraine’s agriculture ministry has reported that their total grain exports have reached 33.8 mmt since the season began on July 1. This is down about 8.8% year over year. Of the total, wheat accounts for 13.4 mmt , which was approximately 8% lower year over year.

  • The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia has estimated that their wheat planted area will fall by about 400,000 hectares this year to 4.19 million. This is a decline of 9% and is said to be partly due to a lack of available fallow land.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550–570 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Other Charts / Weather

|

4-10 End of Day: Thursday’s USDA Report Drives Movement Across Grain Markets

ByLisa Heder

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Today’s release of the USDA’s Supply and Demand report helped drive corn futures significantly higher, thanks to larger-than-expected cuts to the US corn carryout projection.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans finished the day posting gains, thanks to some favorable tariff news out of the EU and an encouraging WASDE report.

  • Wheat: The USDA report caused the wheat market to close lower overall today, after releasing bearish data that weighed on prices.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target Hit Today: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, now’s the time to start catching up — the first catch-up target of 477 vs May has been hit.

    • No Changes: Still no new recommendations for making an eighth sale. Patience is still advised if you are in line with the seven sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you haven’t made all six sales to date, aim for 459 vs December as your first catch-up target.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a seventh sale for the new crop. Continue to stay patient if you are in line with the six sales recommendations.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a third sale for the new crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A larger than expected cut in the US corn carryout projection helped push corn futures strongly higher on Thursday after the USDA Supply/Demand report. July corn futures traded to its highest level since February 28 on the session.

  • The USDA lowered corn carryout for the 2024-35 marketing year to 1.465 BB, down 75 mb from last month. The USDA added 100 mb to export demand but removed 25 mb from feed demand to reach the 75 mb reduction. The carryout of 1.465 bb was well below analysts’ expectations, supporting prices.

  • Weekly export sales for corn were lackluster in this week’s USDA export sales report. For the week ending April3, US exporters posted new sales of 786,000 MT for the current marketing year. South Korea was the largest buyer of U.S. corn last week. Total corn export sales on the books are still supportive of prices and trending 25% over last year.

  • Brazil ag agency, CONAB, released their projection for corn production to 124.76 MMt, up nearly 2 MMT from their March forecast. 1.3 MMT of that projected production raise came from the key second crop corn. In similar fashion, the Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina raised its production forecast 4 MMt for 48.5 MMT from their March projection. Favorable weather overall has helped build the production boost.

Corn Finds Support Ahead of Growing Season
After surging to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures experienced a sharp pullback, spending much of March testing key technical support levels. As spring planting approaches in earnest, futures have stabilized around the 450 level — a zone that’s likely to continue acting as near-term support into the early part of the growing season. If this area fails to hold, stronger support is expected near the 200-day moving average, currently around 430. On the upside, the first resistance comes at the 100-day moving average, followed by the March highs and the 50-day moving average near the 470 level.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you haven’t made all three sales to date, aim for 1047 vs May as your first catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 14.

    • One Change: The target to buy call options on a close above 1079.75 has been cancelled, leaving the 1107 sales target as the only active target.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 the third. These targets remain unchanged, and Grain Market Insider remains optimistic that the November contract could still reach them.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher following positive tariff news out of the EU this morning, and gains were further supported by a slightly friendly WASDE report. However, export sales were disappointing, and China remains an unreliable buyer at this point. Soybean meal also finished higher, while soybean oil closed lower, tracking weakness in crude oil.

  • Today’s WASDE report saw US soybean ending stocks falling slightly by 5 mb to 375 mb as crushings were increased by 10 mb. World stockpiles were increased to 122.5 mmt from 121.4 mmt, and both Brazilian and Argentinian soybean production were unchanged.

  • Today’s export sales report was poor and below the bottom range of analyst expectations. China was the top buyer, but it was a small amount and likely purchased by Sino grain which is run by the Chinese government and is not subject to the tariffs. The USDA reported an increase of 6.3 mb of bean exports for 24/25 and none for 25/26. Last week’s export shipments of 28.1 were above the 13.0 mb needed each week.

  • China has purchased only a minimal amount of soybeans so far this year, making the tariff news bullish overall, but particularly supportive for soybean oil. With tariffs on Chinese cooking oil now so high, imports are likely to slow, boosting domestic demand.

Soybeans Break Lower on Tariff News
The newly announced tariffs in early April caused soybean futures to drop sharply, breaking previously held support near the 1000 level that had sustained the market throughout March. Should the decline persist, support is expected to emerge around the December lows at 950. Conversely, if prices rally, initial resistance will be encountered at the 1000 level, followed by a confluence of major moving averages between 1020 and 1030. Of these, the 200-day moving average has proven particularly challenging for the soybean market to break above, restricting gains for nearly the last year and a half.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across all three classes following somewhat bearish data from the USDA report. However, a significant drop in the US Dollar Index may have helped limit the downside movement for wheat futures. Grain markets, in general, will remain sensitive to new tariff developments and headlines.

  • On today’s WASDE report, US 24/25 wheat endings stocks came in at 846 mb. This was above 819 mb in March, as well as the average pre-report estimate of 822 mb. Global 24/25 wheat carryout was pegged at 260.7 mmt, which was down 0.1 mmt from the trade guess, but was above last month’s 260.1 mmt.

  • Also on today’s report, the USDA increased US wheat imports by 10 mb and lowered exports by 15 mb. Furthermore, Russian exports were raised by 1 mmt, while Canada and Ukraine were also both up 0.5 mmt. There were declines to both EU and Australian exports, by 0.5 mmt each.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 3.9 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 4.0 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 12.5 mb, which falls below the 22.0 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export target. Sales commitments have reached 784 mb for 24/25, which is up 13% from last year.

  • According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Pakistani wheat imports are expected to reach 1.7 mmt in the 25/26 season that begins in May. While this would fall below the 23/24 level, it would be 100,000 mt above the 24/25 season. The reason for the increase is because production is expected to fall 13% year over year to 27.5 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550–570 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

4-9 End of Day: Grain Markets Rally Following Announcement of 90-Day Tariff Pause

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn markets closed the day higher, fueled by new tariff headlines and continued strong demand for U.S. corn.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day higher following news of a 90-day delay on tariffs for most countries, excluding China, whose tariff was increased to 125% effective immediately.

  • Wheat: Wheat markets remain the least affected by tariff-related news and closed the midweek trade with gains. However, the stronger U.S. dollar may limit any further upside potential for wheat.

  • Too see the updated 5-day ECWMF precipitation forecast for the U.S., the 7-day ECWMF precipitation forecast for South America, as well as USDA winter wheat ratings, scroll down the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, aim for 477 vs May as your catch-up target.

    • No New Targets: Still no new recommendations for making an eighth sale. Old crop contracts continue to lead, and we’re content to remain patient for another day.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you haven’t made all six sales to date, aim for 459 vs December as your first catch-up target.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a seventh sale for the new crop.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Target Hit: The move to 456 vs December ’26 triggered the current sales recommendation.

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market rallied into the session’s close, finishing with moderate gains driven by demand and the latest tariff news.

  • During the session, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries, except China. China tariffs were increased to 125% on imports of Chinese goods to counter the increased tariffs China installed last night. The announced pause for 90 days in tariffs sent markets sharply higher across most markets. Corn futures traded off the lows for the session.

  • USDA will release weekly exports sales on Thursday morning for corn. For the week ending April 3, new corn sales are expected to range from 700,000 MT –1.3 MMT for the current marketing year. Last week’s sales totaled 1.173 MMT as export demand remains strong.

  • The USDA will release the April WASDE report on Thursday. Expectations for the report could show reduced corn carryout if USDA raises export demand. However, adjustments to feed use and tariff impacts may delay major changes until later reports. Current analyst expectations are for corn carryout to be reduced to 1.510 mb, down 30 mb from the March report.

  • Brazil Agriculture agency, CONAB, will release the next round of production estimates early on Thursday morning. The corn market will be looking for an adjustment in the Brazil corn crop, especially on the key second crop corn.

Corn Finds Support Ahead of Growing Season
After surging to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures experienced a sharp pullback, spending much of March testing key technical support levels. As spring planting approaches in earnest, futures have stabilized around the 450 level — a zone that’s likely to continue acting as near-term support into the early part of the growing season. If this area fails to hold, stronger support is expected near the 200-day moving average, currently around 430. On the upside, the first resistance comes at the 100-day moving average, followed by the March highs and the 50-day moving average near the 470 level.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 1107 remains the target to trigger a fourth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher following breaking news that President Trump would suspend tariffs on most countries for 90 days, while increasing Chinese tariffs to 125% effective immediately. Both soybean meal and oil also rallied in response to the news.

  • China has purchased only a minimal amount of soybeans so far this year, making the tariff news bullish overall, but particularly supportive for soybean oil. With tariffs on Chinese cooking oil now so high, imports are likely to slow, boosting domestic demand.

  • Tomorrow, the USDA will release its WASDE report, and estimates show U.S. ending stocks increasing slightly by 2 mb to 382 mb and exports being reduced by 8 mb. World ending stocks are expected to increase slightly to 121.9 mmt.

  • The Bloomberg survey for Brazilian soybean production has estimated the figure just slightly below CONAB’s last guess at 167.8 mmt compared to CONAB’s 167.37. The range is between 167 and 169 mmt.

Soybeans Break Lower on Tariff News
The newly announced tariffs in early April caused soybean futures to drop sharply, breaking previously held support near the 1000 level that had sustained the market throughout March. Should the decline persist, support is expected to emerge around the December lows at 950. Conversely, if prices rally, initial resistance will be encountered at the 1000 level, followed by a confluence of major moving averages between 1020 and 1030. Of these, the 200-day moving average has proven particularly challenging for the soybean market to break above, restricting gains for nearly the last year and a half.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Markets rallied into the close after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries, excluding China. While wheat finished the day in positive territory, the gains were modest, as wheat seems to have been least affected by the tariff news. However, today’s lower close for Matif wheat futures, combined with the stronger U.S. dollar, may have limited the upside potential for the U.S. wheat market.

  • Tomorrow, traders will receive the USDA’s monthly supply and demand data. No major changes are expected for the wheat market though. U.S. 24/25 wheat carryout is expected to increase slightly, from 819 mb last month to 822 mb on the average pre-report estimate. World ending stocks are anticipated to be neutral as well – the average guess is 260.8 mmt versus 260.1 mmt in March.

  • According to IKAR, Russian 2025 grain production is estimated at 129.5 mmt, which is up from last year’s 125.9 mmt. Of the 2025 total, however, wheat is expected to account for 82.5 mmt, which would be slightly above the level from a year ago.

  • The European Commission has stated that since the season began on July 1, EU soft wheat exports have reached 16.4 mmt as of April 6. This represents a 34% decline from the 25 mmt shipped during the same period last year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to try forming a base in the 550–570 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

|

4-8 End of Day: Bull Spreading Continues in Corn and Soybeans

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: The corn market remained bull-spread on Tuesday, with front-end contracts showing strength while the deferred months stayed under pressure.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended mixed again, with the front three months posting gains while deferred contracts slipped, signaling continued bull spreading.

  • Wheat: Wheat finished in the green across all classes, buoyed by a weaker U.S. Dollar Index, a stronger close in Paris futures, and lower crop ratings compared to last year.

  • Too see the updated 14-day ECMWF precipitation anomalies for South America, as well as the 7-day precipitation outlook for the U.S., scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, aim for 477 vs May as your catch-up target.

    • No New Targets: Still no new recommendations for making an eighth sale. Old crop contracts continue to lead, and we’re content to remain patient for another day.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you haven’t made all six sales to date, aim for 459 vs December as your first catch-up target.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a seventh sale for the new crop.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Target Hit: The move to 456 vs December ’26 triggered the current sales recommendation.

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market remained bull-spread in the Tuesday session as front-end contracts saw buying strength as deferred contracts stayed under pressure. The market is caught between robust old crop demand and uncertainty over long-term demand, driven by tariff concerns and projections for a large corn acreage this spring.

  • Volatility continues to dominate trade across all markets. On Monday, the Trump administration announced a new 50% tariff on Chinese goods in response to China’s retaliatory tariff issued last Friday. The new measure is set to take effect at midnight tonight.

  • USDA announced a flash sale of corn on the export market.  Spain purchased 240,000MT (9.45 mb) of U.S. corn for the 2024-25 marketing year. This was the first announced flash sale of corn since March 14.

  • The April WASDE report, due Thursday, could show reduced corn carryout if USDA raises export demand. However, adjustments to feed use and tariff impacts may delay major changes until later reports. Current analyst expectations are for corn carryout to be reduced to 1.510 mb, down 30 mb from the March report.

Corn Finds Support Ahead of Growing Season
After surging to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures experienced a sharp pullback, spending much of March testing key technical support levels. As spring planting approaches in earnest, futures have stabilized around the 450 level — a zone that’s likely to continue acting as near-term support into the early part of the growing season. If this area fails to hold, stronger support is expected near the 200-day moving average, currently around 430. On the upside, the first resistance comes at the 100-day moving average, followed by the March highs and the 50-day moving average near the 470 level.

Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 1107 remains the target to trigger a fourth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed again to end the day with the three front months higher but deferred contracts lower in more bull spreading. Equity markets initially rebounded today, which lifted all grains and livestock, but both faded into the end of the day. Soybean meal ended higher while soybean oil was lower.

  • Today, the White House press secretary said that President Trump’s tariffs on China would go into effect just after midnight tonight. With the initial 20% tariffs he placed on China at the start of his term combined with the new 34% tariffs and now additional 50% tariffs as a result of China’s retaliation, this would bring China’s total tariff rate to 104%. There is optimism that an agreement can be made soon with China and all other countries.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections at 804k tons which compared to 813k the previous week and 492k tons a year ago. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and Mexico.

  • In Brazil, a key Amazon shipping route has been disrupted by Indigenous protests and deteriorating road conditions. Global grain giants like Cargill and Bunge, which have significant operations in the region, are experiencing delays at the river port of Miritituba as a result.

Soybeans Break Lower on Tariff News
The newly announced tariffs in early April caused soybean futures to drop sharply, breaking previously held support near the 1000 level that had sustained the market throughout March. Should the decline persist, support is expected to emerge around the December lows at 950. Conversely, if prices rally, initial resistance will be encountered at the 1000 level, followed by a confluence of major moving averages between 1020 and 1030. Of these, the 200-day moving average has proven particularly challenging for the soybean market to break above, restricting gains for nearly the last year and a half.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with green on the screen for each class, supported by a lower US Dollar Index, higher close for Paris futures, and lower crop ratings compared with a year ago. Nationally, US winter wheat was rated 48% good to excellent, compared to 56% at this time last year, and 55% in the final November report.

  • In addition to winter wheat ratings, the USDA also reported that 3% of the US spring wheat crop was planted as of April 6. This is steady with the five-year average and also in line with a year ago.

  • Russia is expected to remain the top global wheatexporter through the 2024–25 season, according to Rusagrotrans. The country is projected to hold a 22% share of the global market (excluding flour), with total exports reaching 40.8 MMT.

  • Argus has estimated Ukraine’s 2025–26 wheat crop at 23.7 MMT, unchanged from their November forecast. If realized, this would mark an increase from 22.3 MMT in 2024–25 and the highest output since the 2021–22 season. Projected yields for 2025–26 are 4.51 tons per hectare, above the five-year average of 4.34.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to try forming a base in the 550–570 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 695.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations were made prior to last week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 646.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations were made prior to last week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2025 crop.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Spring wheat percentage planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

|

4-7 End of Day: Wheat Leads Grains Higher Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Front-end corn contracts started the week with moderate gains, supported by buying strength. Deferred contracts lagged amid expectations for large acreage and demand concerns tied to tariffs.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended mixed with front months higher and deferred contracts lower in bull spreading. Futures spiked early on a false report of a 90-day tariff pause, but gains faded once the headline was debunked.

  • Wheat: Wheat led grain gains today, appearing least affected by tariff concerns. Strength in Matif wheat also supported U.S. prices.

  • Too see the updated two-week U.S. precipitation ranks by climate district, 6-10 day U.S. temperature and precipitation outlooks as well as the 10-day ECMWF precipitation anomalies for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No New Targets: No new targets to note at this time. The corn market is holding up surprisingly well given how other markets have reacted since ‘Liberation Day’. A positive sign for higher prices ahead? Continue to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No updates to active options targets, and no new sales targets have been posted at this time. Given how well the corn market is holding up, we’re content to continue sitting tight — with only the options exit targets currently active.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • MO: The Grain Market Insider strategy is built on a foundation of early corn sales.

    • Target Hit: The move to 456 vs December ’26 triggered the current sales recommendation.

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The front end of the corn markets saw buying strength to start the week as old crop contract finished with moderate gains. The expectation of a large acre forecast, and possible demand concerns due to tariffs, limited the deferred contracts on the session.

  • USDA announced corn export inspections during the morning. For the week ending April 3, US exporters shipped 62.3 mb of corn. Total corn export shipments for the 2024-25 marketing year are at 1.401 bb, up 30% over last year.

  • Heavy rainfall in the southern corn belt over the weekend brings concerns of possible delayed planting and a possible shifting of acres. Some analysts feel that producers could move away from some early planted soybeans and shift to additional corn acres.

  • The April WASDE report, due Thursday, could show reduced corn carryout if USDA raises export demand. However, adjustments to feed use and tariff impacts may delay major changes until later reports.

  • Recent rainfall in Brazil will likely support the development of the second corn crop. In addition, Brazil farmers were strong sellers as the tariff news supported Brazil cash prices on the prospects of improved global demand for Brazil grains.

Corn Finds Support Ahead of Growing Season
After surging to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures experienced a sharp pullback, spending much of March testing key technical support levels. As spring planting approaches in earnest, futures have stabilized around the 450 level — a zone that’s likely to continue acting as near-term support into the early part of the growing season. If this area fails to hold, stronger support is expected near the 200-day moving average, currently around 430. On the upside, the first resistance comes at the 100-day moving average, followed by the March highs and the 50-day moving average near the 470 level.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 17,850 contracts between March 25 – April 1, bringing their total position to a net long 56,757 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No updates to the active option target or the single sales target at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the three front months higher but deferred contracts lower in bull spreading action. Futures were volatile today spiking as much as 20 cents higher this morning after a fake headline went out that Trump would be pausing the tariffs on all countries apart from China for 90 days. This news was debunked, and prices came back down shortly after.

  • Soybean meal ended the day higher after May made a new contract low on Friday as South America sees good weather overall. Soybean oil followed crude oil lower which lost over 7 dollars a barrel on Friday amid the decline in equity markets and tariff negotiations.

  • In Brazil, a major Amazon shipping route has been disrupted by Indigenous protesters and poor road conditions. Major global grains traders like Cargill and Bunge have important operations there, and the river port of Miritituba has seen shipping delays as a result.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 13,112 contracts as of April 1, before the tariffs were announced, which left them with a net short position of 29,847 contracts. They were buyers of soybean oil by 38,856 contracts and sellers of bean meal by 16,683 contracts.

Soybeans Break Lower on Tariff News
The newly announced tariffs in early April caused soybean futures to drop sharply, breaking previously held support near the 1000 level that had sustained the market throughout March. Should the decline persist, support is expected to emerge around the December lows at 950. Conversely, if prices rally, initial resistance will be encountered at the 1000 level, followed by a confluence of major moving averages between 1020 and 1030. Of these, the 200-day moving average has proven particularly challenging for the soybean market to break above, restricting gains for nearly the last year and a half.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 13,112 contracts between March 25 – April 1, bringing their total position to a net short 29,847 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat led grain gains today, appearing least affected by tariff concerns. Volatility spiked after early reports of a 90-day tariff pause (excluding China) were later denied, trimming market highs. Strength in Matif wheat also supported U.S. prices.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections reached 12.3 mb, bringing total 24/25 inspections to 650 mb, up 15% from last year. Wheat inspections are running behind the USDA’s estimated pace; total 24/25 exports are forecast at 835 mb, up 18% from the previous year.

  • Over the weekend, temperatures in the Plains states dropped below freezing. While minimal damage is expected for the winter wheat crop, this may still have injected some weather premium into the market today.

  • CFTC data shows managed money increased net short positions in Chicago wheat to 112,000 contracts as of April 1, with total shorts across all wheat classes at 186,000 — the highest since December 2023.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 19,453 contracts between March 25 – April 1, bringing their total position to a net short 112,040 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to try forming a base in the 550–570 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 225 contracts between March 25 – April 1, bringing their total position to a net short 45,675 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 695.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations were made prior to last week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 646.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations were made prior to last week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2025 crop.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,961 contracts between March 25 – April 1, bringing their total position to a net short 28,680 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

|

4-4 End of Day: China Tariff News Drives Soybeans and Wheat Lower, While Corn Ends Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn prices ended the week mixed, with the market showing resilience despite news of China’s new tariffs. While the tariff announcement initially weighed on sentiment, the impact on corn prices was limited, as China’s imports of U.S. corn have remained relatively modest.

  • Soybeans: News of the new tariffs imposed by China on all U.S. imports caused the soybean market to close sharply lower today, marking the second consecutive day of losses.

  • Wheat: Wheat prices ultimately ended the day with losses across the board, pressured by the tariff news and a sharp rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index.

  • To see the updated monthly temperature and precipitation US outlooks from the CPC as well as the 8-10 day precipitation anomaly and 10-15 day average temperature anomaly for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No New Targets: No new targets to note at this time. The corn market is holding up surprisingly well given how other markets have reacted since ‘Liberation Day’. A positive sign for higher prices ahead? Continue to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No updates to active options targets, and no new sales targets have been posted at this time. Given how well the corn market is holding up, we’re content to continue sitting tight — with only the options exit targets currently active.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • MO: The Grain Market Insider strategy is built on a foundation of early corn sales.

    • Target Hit: The move to 456 vs December ’26 triggered the current sales recommendation.

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Despite aggressive selling to close the week, the corn market remained resilient, pushing back against early-session selling pressure as concerns over the potential trade war and tariff impacts weighed on the markets. Corn futures ended the week mixed, with buying strength concentrated in the front end of the market. For the week, May corn futures closed higher, gaining 7 cents.

  • China announced a counter tariff to the recently announced U.S. tariffs on Wednesday. China will impose a 34% tariff on all U.S. good imported into China. The prospects of the growing trade war sent selling pressure across the market, and limited gains in corn.

  • The corn market stayed supported by the prospects of a tightening U.S. and global corn supply picture. Currently, U.S. export demand and ethanol usage is running ahead of USDA targets for the marketing year. Market analysts are looking to next week’s USDA WASDE report for an increase in corn demand on the balance sheet which could move corn carryout down from its current 1.540 billion bushel level for the 2024-25 marketing year.

  • Traders are closely monitoring a powerful spring storm moving through the U.S. Corn Belt. Heavy rainfall is forecast for key growing regions in the southern Corn Belt, where saturated soils could raise concerns about potential planting delays.

  • As we head into next week, traders will be closely monitoring headlines regarding the ongoing tariff situation and negotiations with other countries. The tariff package announced by President Trump on Wednesday is set to take effect on April 9, leaving a window for potential changes to the plan as tariff negotiations continue.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March Planting Intentions report now behind us, weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No updates to the active option target or the single sales target at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower for the second consecutive day after China announced overnight that they would place retaliatory tariffs of 34% on all U.S. imports. Since President Trump announced the tariffs, May soybeans have lost over 50 cents and have been the hardest hit out of the grains. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.

  • In South America, harvest conditions remain cooperative overall, but there have been some excess rains in Argentina have delayed the start of harvest as fields are too wet for tractors. Soybean production is still forecast at 49.0 mmt with yields in the central region better than expected.

  • Yesterday, OPEC announced they would increase output by 411,000 barrels per day next month, equivalent to three monthly increments. They cited healthy fundamentals and a positive market outlook. This caused crude oil futures to drop by over $5 per barrel again today, which in turn led to a decline in soybean oil prices as well. Crude has lost nearly 10 dollars a barrel over the past two days.

  • For the week, May soybeans lost 46 cents while November soybeans lost 44-3/4 cents. May soybean meal lost $10.40 to $283.10, and May soybean oil managed to gain 0.68 cents to 45.84 cents.

Soybeans Break on Tariff News
Soybean futures tested their long-standing ceiling at the 200-day moving average in early 2025—a level that has capped rallies for the past 18 months. However, as March progressed, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America sparked a sharp selloff, dragging prices lower. Despite the drop, the psychologically important 1000 level initially held as support.
That changed in April when newly announced tariffs triggered another leg down, breaking below key support. The next major support is expected near 950, while on any recovery, initial resistance returns at 1000. Above that, the 200-day moving average remains a key technical barrier that the market has struggled to overcome.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across the board as tariff headlines remained the main focus for traders, driving sell-offs in both equity and commodity markets. Additionally, a sharp rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index today contributed to a weaker outlook for the wheat complex.

  • Some regions of western Kansas saw rains over the past 24 hours, which will offer some relief from drought conditions. However, more will be needed in the long run. The forecast into next week shows warmer and drier conditions for the Southern Plains.

  • According to the USDA as of April 1, about 37% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, up from just 14% the week before. Additionally, drought in spring wheat areas also jumped during the same time period, from 21% to 39%.

  • The U.S. ag attaché for China is anticipating higher corn, rice, and wheat production in the 25/26 season. The wheat planted area is expected to remain stable but also show improved yields, leading to a bigger harvest. In related news, China has issued retaliatory tariffs on U.S. ag goods, including 15% on wheat.

  • Since their season began on July 1, Ukrainian total grain exports have reached 33 mmt, which is down 8.4% year over year. Wheat exports specifically have totaled 13.2 mmt, down close to 7% versus the same timeframe last year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No adjustments to the current strategy — with just one active sales target at 701.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No adjustments to the current strategy — with just one active sales target at 705.50.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No adjustments to the current strategy — with just one active sales target at 704.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. Support near 540 failed to hold late last week, but prices are attempting a rebound to start April. The next key resistance level is the 200-day moving average, which now serves as a major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially signaling a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted yet. The recommendation remains to sit tight as the market continues to search for a base.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No adjustments to the current strategy — with just one active sales target at 677.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 695.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to this week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 646.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to this week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2025 crop.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

|

4-3 End of Day: Grains Close Mixed as Traders Analyze Potential Tariff Impacts

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: The corn markets closed the trading day mixed, as traders continue to assess the tariff announcements released yesterday afternoon and determine the potential impacts on the market.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed significantly lower today following yesterday’s tariff announcements, as traders expressed concern over the heavy tariffs imposed on China and baseline tariffs placed on other countries.

  • Wheat: Wheat finished Thursday’s trade mixed, influenced by a drop in the U.S. dollar, as the tariff announcements appeared to have little impact on the wheat markets.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: The recommendation remains to sit tight yet.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: No updates to active options targets, and no new sales targets have been posted at this time.

2026 Crop: 

  • NEW ALERT – Sell a second portion of your 2026 corn crop today. This is the second sales recommendation to date.

  • Plan A: Hit the 456 target vs December ‘26 yesterday.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the session mixed to mostly lower. It was a ‘risk-off’ day across the markets as traders digested the potential impacts of President Trump’s tariff announcement made late Monday afternoon. Strong selling pressure in the soybean market, along with negative movement in outside markets, limited the corn market’s potential, despite a supportive export sales report.

  • The corn futures market “gapped” open on last night’s session on strong selling pressure. As corn prices challenged recent levels of support, value buyers stepped into the market, lifting corn prices off the lows of the session. The firm close brings some optimism to the corn market going into Friday’s trade. May corn is still 4 ¼ cents higher on the week going into Friday.

  • The strong demand tone lifted corn futures off the session lows on Thursday as the USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week of March 27, U.S. exporters posted new sales of 1.173 MMT (46.2 mb) of corn for the marketing year. This was within expectations, and current corn sales are still trending 24% higher year over year. South Korea was the largest buyer of U.S. corn last week.

  • Traders are closely monitoring a powerful spring storm moving across the U.S. Corn Belt. Heavy rainfall is forecast for key growing regions in the southern Corn Belt, where saturated soils may raise concerns about potential planting delays.

  • Following the tariff announcements, the U.S. Dollar Index dropped sharply, reaching its lowest point since October. The weaker dollar should help mitigate some of the impacts of the tariffs, supporting the corn market as the demand outlook remains positive.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March Planting Intentions report now behind us, weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: No updates to the active option target or the single sales target at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • New Target: Post-report price action activated an additional sales target at 1093 vs November. With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed sharply lower to end the day, following the steep tariffs imposed on China and other countries by President Trump yesterday afternoon. China bore the brunt of the tariffs at 34%, while other countries faced a baseline tariff of 10%. Soybeans and soybean oil declined amid concerns of trade retaliation, while soybean meal saw a slight increase.

  • Export sales were released today but were mostly overshadowed by the tariff news. Soybean sales totaled 15.1 mb for 24/25 and 0.1 mb for 25/26, which was within the average trade estimates. Primary destinations were to China, Taiwan, and Indonesia. Last week’s export shipments of 30.9 mb were above the 13.1 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

  • Earlier today, OPEC announced they would increase output by 411,000 barrels per day next month, equivalent to three monthly increments. They cited healthy fundamentals and a positive market outlook. This caused crude oil futures to drop by over $5 per barrel, which in turn led to a decline in soybean oil prices as well.

  • U.S. soybean crush for February totaled 189 million bushels, slightly above the average trade estimate of 188.7 mb. However, this was still 2.3% below last year’s February total and significantly lower than January’s crush of 212.6 mb.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Chicago and Minneapolis wheat futures closed lower, while Kansas City posted modest gains. Despite the weakness from tariffs, wheat seemed to shrug off the impact to a large extent. The U.S. Dollar Index experienced a significant drop this session, which may have contributed to wheat’s relative strength; as of this writing, the index is down 1.73 at 102.07.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 12.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 3.5 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 18.4 mb, but this was below the 22.4 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 835 mb. Total 24/25 sales commitments have reached 780 mb, which is up 13% from last year.

  • The U.S. ag attaché to India has estimated their 25/26 wheat crop at 115 mmt. If realized, this would be a result of higher planting across 32.6 million hectares, as well as optimal growing conditions. However, this would assume normal weather through harvest.

  • According to Interfax, the Russian ag ministry is said to have issued the order to distribute the remaining 2025 wheat export quota to 24 companies. The quota, in effect between February 15 and June 30, totals just 10.6 mmt. About 8.6 mmt was already shipped between February and early March.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 701 price target.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • New Target: Post-report price action prompted an adjustment to the prior 714 price target, which has been lowered to 705.50 vs July.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 704 price target.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. Support near 540 failed to hold late last week, but prices are attempting a rebound to start April. The next key resistance level is the 200-day moving average, which now serves as a major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially signaling a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The recommendation remains to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 677 price target.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 695.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to this week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 646.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to this week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2025 crop.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

4-2 End of Day: Grain Markets Close Mixed as Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Trade

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures ended lower as uncertainty around tariffs led traders to reduce risk exposure.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower again on Wednesday. The bullish acreage report from Monday has taken a backseat to tariffs as the market awaits further clarity.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures closed mixed, with Kansas City contracts posting gains while Chicago and Minneapolis futures finished lower.

  • To see the updated 5-day ECWMF precipitation forecast for the U.S. as well as the 14-day ECWMF precipitation forecast for South America, scroll down the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: The recommendation remains to sit tight yet.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: No updates to active options targets, and no new sales targets have been posted at this time.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 456 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • New Target: A second sale target for the 2026 crop has been activated at 456.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended mixed to mostly lower as selling pressure weighed on the front end of the market. Uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff announcement, set for release after Wednesday’s market close, likely led traders to reduce risk exposure.

  • The corn market remains on edge over potential retaliatory tariffs from key trading partners, which could add further downside pressure in the coming sessions.

  • Weekly ethanol production increased week over week to 312.5 million gallons/day, up 2.5 million gallons over last week. A total of 106.5 mb of corn was used last week to produce ethanol. This total was still trending slightly ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA targets for the marketing year.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for the week ending March 27, the total of new sales should range between 800,000-1.6 MMT for the week. Last week, new sales totaled 1.083 MMT of corn, within expectations. The USDA hasn’t announced a published corn sale of over 100,000 mt since March 14.

  • Traders are closely monitoring a strong spring storm moving across the U.S. Corn Belt. Heavy rainfall is forecast for key growing regions in the southern Corn Belt, where saturated soils could raise concerns about planting delays.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March Planting Intentions report now behind us, weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: No updates to the active option target or the single sales target at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • New Target: Post-report price action activated an additional sales target at 1093 vs November. With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were lower to end the day ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcement at 3 pm central this afternoon with concerns over retaliatory tariffs from China. Monday’s bullish acreage report seems to be taking a backseat until this announcement is out of the way. Soybean oil has been strong and closed higher, but soybean meal ended the day lower.

  • Optimism surrounding potential improvements in U.S. biofuel subsidy policy provided support for soybean oil and soybean futures over the past two sessions. Soybean oil futures managed to close higher today despite tariff-related uncertainty, signaling resilience. Additionally, reports suggest the U.S. may offer soybean oil to India at reduced tariff rates.

  • U.S. soybean crush for February totaled 189 million bushels, slightly above the average trade estimate of 188.7 mb. However, this was still 2.3% below last year’s February total and significantly lower than January’s crush of 212.6 mb.

  • StoneX has reduced its outlook for the Brazilian soybean crop for 24/25 to 167.5 mmt. This is below the USDA’s last estimate of 169 mmt but would still be 12% larger than last year’s crop. Primary reductions were in the southern region of Rio Grande do Sul with a cut of 6.6% as a result of dryness.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed mixed, with Kansas City contracts posting gains, while Chicago and Minneapolis futures finished lower. Storms moving across the Midwest may be limiting the upside for soft red winter (SRW) wheat by improving soil moisture, while the southwestern Plains could miss out on much-needed precipitation, lending support to hard red winter (HRW) wheat. Ongoing concerns over tariffs and trade uncertainty likely contributed to the market’s mixed performance.

  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports have reached 15.7 mmt as of March 20 since the season began on July 1. This is a 36% drop year over year, as 24.5 mmt of wheat was exported during the same time last year.

  • The Ukrainian farm producer’s union, UAC, said that wheat exports for April are expected at 1 mmt. This remains high but is down slightly from 1.1 mmt in March. The reason this is considered a high volume is due to the fact that the farm ministry has limited 24/25 wheat exports to 16.2 mmt and 13 mmt have already been shipped this season.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 701 price target.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • New Target: Post-report price action prompted an adjustment to the prior 714 price target, which has been lowered to 705.50 vs July.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 704 price target.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. Support near 540 failed to hold late last week, but prices are attempting a rebound to start April. The next key resistance level is the 200-day moving average, which now serves as a major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially signaling a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The recommendation remains to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 677 price target.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 695.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to this week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 646.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to this week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2025 crop.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

|

4-1 End of Day: Cautious Optimism Lifts Grains Higher Tuesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures followed soybeans higher on Tuesday, closing in positive territory, with new crop contracts leading the gains.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed higher today, gaining momentum from yesterday’s bullish Planting Intentions report. However, traders remain cautious ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcement set for tomorrow.

  • Wheat: Wheat was the weakest performer in the grain complex today but still managed to close higher across all contracts.

  • To see the updated 7-day precipitation forecast for the U.S. as well as the 30-day total precipitation ranks by climate district, scroll down the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: The recommendation remains to sit tight yet.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: No updates to active options targets, and no new sales targets have been posted at this time.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 456 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • New Target: A second sale target for the 2026 crop has been activated at 456.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices continued to climb throughout the session, supported by strength in the soybean complex and cautious optimism. Traders remain focused on the upcoming reciprocal tariffs set to take effect tomorrow, April 2nd, as well as ongoing analysis of the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, which confirmed an increase in corn acreage for the year.

  • Heavy rains are expected to impact central Oklahoma and stretch northeast through Arkansas, Kentucky, southern Illinois, and southern Indiana over the next five days, raising flood concerns that could delay spring fieldwork and planting.

  • The 5-day weather outlook for Brazil predicts warm temperatures, while the 15-day forecast indicates wet weather across most of the country, excluding the Northeast. While the wet conditions may delay the first corn harvest, they will be beneficial for the growth of second-crop corn across Brazil’s growing regions.

  • With the increase in corn acreage, ending stocks could easily surpass 2 billion bushels, with both old and new crop futures remaining strong. Corn demand continues to outpace expectations as U.S. corn remains one of the most affordable feed grains globally.

  • Brazil continues to challenge the U.S. for the title of top corn exporter, but the U.S. remains the leader, producing 1.8 times the combined output of Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March Planting Intentions report now behind us, weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: No updates to the active option target or the single sales target at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • New Target: Post-report price action activated an additional sales target at 1093 vs November. With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher today, gaining momentum from yesterday’s bullish Planting Intentions report. However, traders remain cautious ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcement set for 2 p.m. Central Time tomorrow. Uncertainty remains over potential measures, with the risk of harsh tariffs — particularly against China — potentially pressuring prices. Within the soybean complex, soybean meal edged slightly lower, while soybean oil provided support.

  • Yesterday’s Prospective Plantings report pegged 2025 soybean acreage at 83.50 million acres, just below the average trade estimate of 83.76 million and notably lower than last year’s 87.05 million acres. Meanwhile, quarterly stocks aligned closely with expectations.

  • The USDA February soybean crush is expected to come in at 188.7 million bushels according to analysts, which would be down 11.2% from the 212.5 mb crushed in January and down 2.4% from January last year at 193.3 mb.

  • Yesterday, the USDA said 793k tons of soybeans were inspected for export which compared to 827k tons last week and 515k tons a year ago at this time. Export demand has been expectedly weak as Brazil remains competitive globally.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was the weakest performer in the grain complex today but still managed to close higher across all contracts. Given the smaller-than-expected acreage figure in yesterday’s USDA report, the market’s muted reaction was somewhat surprising. Forecasted rainfall across much of the U.S. may be tempering bullish momentum.

  • Select states released updated winter wheat crop conditions after yesterday’s close. The rating in Kansas held steady at 49% good to excellent. Conditions fell 9% in Montana, 4% in Oklahoma, 1% in South Dakota, and 5% in Texas, but increased 1% in Colorado and 7% in Nebraska.

  • Some private estimates out of Australia suggest that their wheat production this year may total only 28.6 mmt due to drought. If accurate, that would be a 16% decline from last year. New South Wales and Western Australia have decent soil moisture, but it is far too dry in Victoria and South Australia.

  • Argus has reduced their estimate of the Russian 25/26 wheat production to 80.3 mmt. This is down from 81.5 mmt previously. In the breakdown, the spring wheat was cut to 24.3 mmt due to a smaller planted area, but winter wheat actually increased to 56 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 701 price target.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • New Target: Post-report price action prompted an adjustment to the prior 714 price target, which has been lowered to 705.50 vs July.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 704 price target.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. Support near 540 failed to hold late last week, but prices are attempting a rebound to start April. The next key resistance level is the 200-day moving average, which now serves as a major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially signaling a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The recommendation remains to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 677 price target.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier.

2024 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2024 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 695.

  • Plan A: Hit the 596.25 target vs the May contract today.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to today. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 646.

  • Plan A: Hit the 622.50 target vs the September contract today.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to today. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2025 crop.dations made on the 2025 crop to date – hitting 622.50 would trigger the fifth.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

|

3-31 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Higher, Soybeans Lower Following USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures ended mixed with gains centered in the front months, while a larger-than-expected planting estimate limited new crop gains.

  • Soybeans: Ended lower despite a supportive planting intentions report. Soybean meal and oil also ended the day lower.

  • Wheat: Led the grain complex higher Monday with spring wheat posting the largest gains. A supportive USDA report and solid export inspections provided a boost.

  • To see the updated USDA 2025 Corn and Soybean Planted Acreage by State Maps as well as the 7-day U.S. Precipitation outlook, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any new price targets. The recommendation remains to sit tight and stay the course for now.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any new price targets. The recommendation remains to sit tight and stay the course for now.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 456 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • New Target: A second sale target for the 2026 crop has been activated at 456.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market ended mixed, with strong demand and a supportive Grain Stocks report lifting old crop prices, while a larger-than-expected planting estimate limited new crop gains.

  • The USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report projected 95.4 million acres of U.S. corn for the upcoming crop year — 965,000 acres above market expectations and 4.76 million acres more than last year. This marks the highest planted acreage since 2013-14, with the largest percentage increases seen in the Northwest and Southern regions, likely replacing soybean, spring wheat, and cotton acres.

  • March 1 quarterly grain stocks for corn came in at 8.151 billion bushels, aligning with market expectations but 200 million bushels below last year, reflecting strong demand in the first half of the marketing year.

  • The USDA released weekly export inspections on Monday morning. Export inspections remain strong at 1.614 MMT (63.6 mb) and above market expectations. Total export shipments are still trending 31% ahead of last year.

  • With Monday’s USDA reports behind the market, attention now shifts to demand, South American weather, and looming tariff issues. The April 2 tariff deadline could be the most immediate factor influencing market direction.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March Planting Intentions report now behind us, weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 32,663 contracts between March 18 – March 25, bringing their total position to a net long 74,607 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes to the current targets.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • New Target: Today’s post-report price action activated an additional sales target at 1093 vs November. With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were lower to end the day despite a friendly Planting Intentions report. Much of this report seemed to be priced in over the course of last week, and now trade will focus on the upcoming tariffs which are set to be released on Wednesday. The size of the Brazilian soybean crop also remains a concern. Both soybean meal and oil were also lower to end the day.

  • The USDA’s Prospective Plantings report estimated 2025 soybean acreage at 83.50 million acres, slightly below the average trade estimate of 83.76 million acres and significantly lower than last year’s 87.05 million acres. Acreage adjustments remain possible ahead of planting.

  • The Quarterly Grain Stocks report was largely in line with expectations, with March 1 soybean stocks at 1.910 billion bushels, slightly above the trade estimate of 1.901 billion and up from 1.845 billion a year ago.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 20,954 contracts which increased their net short position to 42,959 contracts. They sold 17,009 contracts of bean oil and 23,037 contracts of meal.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 20,954 contracts between March 18 – March 25, bringing their total position to a net short 42,959 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed higher, led by gains in spring wheat, as supportive USDA data, solid export inspections, and strength in Matif wheat provided a boost to the U.S. market.

  • The USDA estimated March 1 wheat stocks at 1.237 billion bushels, up from 1.089 billion a year ago and slightly above trade expectations. However, the acreage report was the real driver, with all wheat acreage projected at 45.4 million acres — on the low end of estimates and down from 46.1 million acres in 2024. If realized, this would be the second smallest wheat planted area since 1919.

  • In a breakdown by class, winter wheat acreage comes in at 33.3 ma, vs 33.4 ma last year. Spring wheat acres were projected at 10.0 ma, down from 10.6 ma a year ago. Finally, durum wheat acreage is estimated at 2.0 ma, compared with 2.1 ma in 2024.

  • Weekly wheat inspections reached 16 mb, bringing the total 24/25 inspections figure to 635 mb, up 16% from last year; this is slightly behind the USDA’s estimated pace. They are forecasting 24/25 exports at 835 mb, up 18% from the year prior.

  • According to their agriculture ministry, Ukraine has planted 551,800 hectares of spring grain is of last Friday – this is up 16% from the same time last year. Of that total, spring wheat has reached 79,800 hectares, up 17% year over year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes to the current 701 price target.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • New Target: Today’s post-report price action prompted an adjustment to the prior 714 price target, which has been lowered to 705.50 vs July.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes to the current 704 price target.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. Support near 540 failed to hold late last week, but prices are attempting a rebound to start April. The next key resistance level is the 200-day moving average, which now serves as a major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially signaling a trend reversal and renewed upside.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 11,919 contracts between March 18 – March 25, bringing their total position to a net short 92,587 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any new price targets. The recommendation remains to sit tight and stay the course for now.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes to the current 677 price target.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,213 contracts between March 18 – March 25, bringing their total position to a net short 45,450 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 596.25 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • New Target: Today’s post-report price action prompted an adjustment to the prior 625 price target, which has been lowered to 596.25 vs May.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 622.50 against September for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • New Target: Today’s post-report price action activated a new target at 622.50. There have been four sales recommendations made on the 2025 crop to date – hitting 622.50 would trigger the fifth.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,153 contracts between March 18 – March 25, bringing their total position to a net short 23,719 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather