|

4-28 End of Day: Grain Markets Struggle as Planting Progress and Weather Pressure Futures

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures ended lower Monday, weighed down by spillover selling from wheat and expectations for an accelerated planting pace across the Midwest.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures finished mixed, with front months higher and deferred contracts lower on bull spreading activity.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures fell across all classes, unable to rebound from early losses tied to forecasts for sustained heavy rainfall in the Southern Plains. Kansas City and Chicago wheat contracts posted fresh lows for the move.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the U.S. 8-14 day precipitation anomaly, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • No New Sales Targets: No active sales targets to report.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No Changes: Still no active sales targets to report. Options targets remain active and unchanged.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • No Changes: No new active sales targets to report.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished softer on the session, weighed by selling pressure spilling over from the wheat market, and the prospects of a strong planting pace for the next corn crop. U.S. corn demand remains strong, but the market is looking for bullish news to push prices higher.

  • Weekly corn export inspections remain strong. For the week ending April 24, corn inspections totaled 1.655 MMT (65.1 mb), which was near the top end of expectations. Total corn expectations are up 29% year-over-year, and ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA export target for the marketing year.

  • Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report is expected to show corn planting nearing 25% complete, up from 12% last week and ahead of the five-year average, reinforcing ideas that planted acres could exceed earlier projections.

  • The influence of First Notice Day of the May futures likely limited corn prices and added volatility, as traders holding long May positions need to exit or roll those positions to the next contract month or risk delivery.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 11,768 contracts between April 15 – April 22, bringing their total position to a net long 112,805 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: Continue to target a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • No Changes: If you’re behind on sales, target 1063 vs November for a catch-up opportunity. If you’re in line with current recommendations, Plan A remains to make the next cash sales at 1093 and 1114, while keeping an eye on 1016.75 support as part of Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The first sales targets may not post until May or later.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the front months higher and back months lower in bull spreading action. May futures were up 2-1/4 cents while November was down 1/4 cent. Support came from soybean oil, which closed higher, while soybean meal was lower to end the day.

  • USDA’s Crop Progress report, due this afternoon, is expected to show soybean planting at 17% complete as of Sunday. Warmer, drier weather in early May should help with emergence for early-planted fields.

  • Today’s export inspections were on the poorer side for soybeans at the low range of analyst estimates. Inspections totaled 16.1 million bushels for the week ending April 24. Total inspections for 24/25 are now at 1.584 billion bushels, which is up 11% from the previous year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 4,898 contracts, increasing their net long position to 31,067 contracts. They were buyers of 9,940 contracts of bean oil and sellers of 3,911 contracts of meal.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,898 contracts between April 15 – April 22, bringing their total position to a net long 31,067 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat markets struggled to recover from a rocky start to the week, ultimately closing lower across all classes on Monday. The downturn was driven by forecasts of continued heavy rainfall across the Southern Plains, which added pressure to prices. Both Kansas City and Chicago wheat contracts hit new lows today.

  • The USDA released its weekly Export Inspections report this morning for the week ending April 24. Wheat export inspections totaled 24 million bushels, coming in above expectations and reaching a seven-month high. Year-to-date inspections stand at 715 million bushels, up 15% from the same time last year, just below the USDA’s projected 16% increase.

  • There were reports of frost across parts of Russia last night, though it remains unclear whether any damage occurred to the wheat crop.

  • The two-week weather outlook for parts of the U.S. calls for continued heavy rainfall across the Southern Plains, including Texas and Oklahoma. Traders may begin to shift their perspective, viewing the persistent rains not as beneficial, but as a potential setback for the developing wheat crop.

  • The weekly Crop Progress report is due out later this afternoon. Wheat conditions are expected to be steady to slightly improved, with spring wheat planting and emergence running just ahead of the five-year average. Estimates suggest planting reached 32% as of Sunday, compared to 31% at this time last year and a five-year average of 21%.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New: Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 6,510 contracts between April 15 – April 22, bringing their total position to a net short 89,929 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the July contract continues to chop around in the 560–580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New: Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 9,252 contracts between April 15 – April 22, bringing their total position to a net short 56,624 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New: Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July KC 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,573 contracts between April 15 – April 22, bringing their total position to a net short 16,582 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

|

4-25 End of Day: Grains Mixed Friday: Corn Gains, Soybeans Slip, Wheat Firms

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures closed the week mixed, with strength in old-crop contracts driven by robust demand, while new-crop futures faced pressure from favorable planting conditions.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures ended lower Friday, pressured by improving U.S. planting conditions and widespread rainfall, even as trade negotiations between President Trump and China continued.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures held onto marginal gains Friday, buoyed by strength in Paris milling wheat and short covering, with managed funds still holding record short positions across U.S. and EU wheat markets.

  • To see the updated U.S. 8–14-day temperature and precipitation outlooks as well as the 10-day precipitation forecast for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop.  This should be the eighth sale for your 2024 corn crop.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • No Changes: The market is still offering an opportunity to make an eighth sale of your 2024 corn crop. The closing price on the day of the recommendation was 483.25, and today’s close was 485.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No New Sales Targets: Still no active sales targets to report. Options targets remain active and unchanged.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • No Changes: No new active sales targets to report.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished the week with mixed trade. Old crop futures were supported by the positive demand tone, but new crop futures were pressured on prospective planting pace for the week. July corn futures finished 4 ¾ cents lower on the week.

  • The USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Friday morning. Mexico purchased 235,000 MT (9.25 mb) of corn split between the current and next marketing year, 130,000 MT (5.1 mb) for 2024-25 and 105,000 MT (4.15 mb) for 2025-26.

  • Export sales and shipments remain ahead of USDA projections, suggesting potential upward revisions to export estimates in upcoming WASDE reports, which could tighten old-crop carryout.

  • News report that Japan is looking to boost U.S. corn imports as part of a possible trade deal and avoiding tariffs supported the front end of the corn market. Japan has been more active recently in US corn purchase, being the largest buyer this past week on the export sales report.

  • Weather forecasts point to a drier start to May, likely accelerating planting progress and raising expectations for larger acreage in USDA’s June report.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Status Quo: Continue to target a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Status Quo: If you’re behind on sales, target 1063 vs November for a catch-up opportunity. If you’re in line with current recommendations, Plan A remains to make the next cash sales at 1093 and 1114, while keeping an eye on 1016.75 support as part of Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Status Quo: The first sales targets may not post until May or later.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower despite continued talk of trade negotiations between President Trump and China. Much of the country has received rain over the past few days as planting begins, improving soil moisture and potentially pressuring futures. Soybean meal was higher, while soybean oil was lower to end the day.

  • Argentinian weather forecasts have turned drier, allowing Argentina producers to push soybean harvest forward.  Argentina producers were noted as strong sellers this past week, taking advantage of the rally in front month soybean futures.

  • U.S. soybean planting is off to a strong start, with 8% of the crop planted — ahead of the five-year average. Near-term rains are expected, but longer-range forecasts show a drier May across North America, raising concerns about summer drought potential and adding weather premium to prices.

  • For the week, May soybeans gained 13-1/4 cents while November gained just 2-1/2 cents. May soybean meal lost $5.60 for the week ending at $290, while May soybean oil was the leader gaining 1.41 cents to 49.28 cents.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat markets continued their positive momentum throughout the day, ultimately ending the day with gains, following the lead of the Paris milling wheat contract and as managed funds remain at record short positions in both the U.S. and the EU.

  • Showers in Oklahoma and northern Kansas offered some pressure early, but buying picked up ahead of the weekend. Forecasts suggest upcoming rain will target the northern and far southern Plains, leaving central areas like Nebraska and western Kansas largely dry.

  • Despite U.S. rain, global production risks persist. Dryness in key wheat regions across China, the EU, and the Black Sea remain in focus, tempering bearish sentiment.

  • The wheat crop in Ukraine remains uncertain as Russian President Putin continues to ignore President Trump’s request to cease strikes on Ukraine and negotiate a peace deal. Any disruptions to wheat production or exports from Ukraine could place additional strain on the global wheat supply.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Status Quo: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New: Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come next week — stay tuned.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Status Quo: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Eye Key Breakout Above 200-Day Moving Average
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and prices are building upward again this April. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Nothing New: Still no active price targets, as the July contract continues to chop around in the 560–580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Target Update: The prior 677 target has been lowered to 667. If 667 is hit, a recommendation will be made to complete a fifth sale.

    • New: Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come next week — stay tuned.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Nothing New: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold trendline support so far in April is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Nothing New: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New: Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July KC 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come next week — stay tuned.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Nothing New: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above 200-Day
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike winter wheats, spring wheat’s ability to stay above the 200-day remains encouraging, with this level now expected to act as support on any growing season pullbacks. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Other Charts / Weather

|

4-24 End of Day: Grains Finish Strong Despite Early Session Weakness

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: After a choppy start to the week, corn futures managed to end with modest gains, supported by strong export performance.

  • Soybeans: Supported by ongoing optimism over a trade deal with China, soybeans gained throughout the day and ultimately settled higher.

  • Wheat: Despite a weaker start, wheat futures managed to close higher, as the market continued to show signs of being oversold.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop.  This should be the eighth sale for your 2024 corn crop.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Current Rec: The July contract has recently stalled, encountering strong selling pressure in the 494–496 range. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed U.S. corn planting moving ahead of the five-year average — a trend that, if it continues, could reduce the market’s urgency to bid aggressively for old crop supplies. Additionally, a key Plan B technical indicator that Grain Market Insider closely tracks turned lower on Tuesday, issuing a sell signal. Given the rally from the March low and the seasonal timing, this remains a timely opportunity to make an eighth sale of the 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Nothing New: Exit targets for December options remain unchanged, and no new sales targets posted today.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Nothing New: Following the recent recommendation to make a third sale, no new sales targets posted today.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures broke a three-session losing strength to finish with moderate gains on Thursday. Strong export performance, buying in the soybean market and the volatility of options expiration helped triggered buying in the corn market on the session.

  • USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning.  For the week ending April 17, USDA reported new crop sales of 1.152 MMT (45.4 mb). Japan was the largest buyer of US corn on the week. Corn export sales are up 26% over last year and still ahead of the USDA pace to reach the marketing year export target.

  • New crop export sales for the 2025-26 marketing year are starting slowly at 458,377 MT (18.04 mb). These total trails last year’s sale pace by approximately 400,000MT for the same time period. The market will be watching 2025-26 sales as the US is expected to plant a record number of acres, strong South American crops, and the impacts of tariffs on corn exports in the future.

  • May corn options expire on Friday, and prices tend to be more volatile in the expiration window. This is followed by First Notice Day on April 30. These events can trigger volatility in the front end of the corn market.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Nothing New: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • Nothing New: Plan A and Plan B targets remain unchanged – ready to pull the trigger on additional sales if November can rally to 1093 & 1114, while simultaneously prepared to advance another sale if 1016.75 support is broken.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Nothing New: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher, gaining throughout the day and finally managing to close above the 200-day moving average for the first time since February. Support came from continued hopes for a trade negotiation with China along with a breakout higher in soybean oil. Soybean meal finished the day lower.

  • Today’s export inspections report was on the poor side for soybeans. The USDA reported an increase of 10.2 million bushels of export sales for 24/25 and a decrease of 3,700 bushels for 25/26. This was on the low end of analyst estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, the Netherlands, and unknown destinations.

  • Last week’s export shipments of 18.2 million bushels were above the 11.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 1.825 bb in 24/25. Soybean sales commitments are now up 13% from a year ago. China was not an active buyer this week.

  • U.S. soybean planting is off to a strong start, with 8% of the crop planted — ahead of the five-year average. Near-term rains are expected, but longer-range forecasts show a drier May across North America, raising concerns about summer drought potential and adding weather premium to prices.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite a weaker start to the day, wheat managed to eke out a positive close across all three classes. Managed funds are estimated to hold a net short position of around 145,000 contracts heading into the session, and Kansas City futures remain technically oversold. Both factors could set the stage for a short-covering rally—if a catalyst emerges to spark it.

  • The USDA reported a decrease of 5.3 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, and an increase of 13.7 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 17.6 mb fell under the 21.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 820 mb. Total 24/25 sales commitments have reached 782 mb, up 13% from last year.

  • According to the USDA, as of April 22, an estimated 33% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions. This is down 1% from last week, as recent rains have fallen across much of the central and southern US. During the same timeframe, however, spring wheat acres in drought increased by 6% to 49%.

  • According to their supply minister, Egypt is expected to import 4.5 mmt of wheat during the 25/26 season (which begins in July). This would be below the 4.8 mmt estimated so far this year. Additionally, they stated that current wheat stockpiles are expected to be sufficient through late July.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Nothing New: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Nothing New: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Nothing New: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Eye Key Breakout Above 200-Day Moving Average
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and prices are building upward again this April. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Nothing New: Still no active price targets, as the July contract continues to chop around in the 560–580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Nothing New: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Nothing New: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold trendline support so far in April is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Nothing New: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Nothing New: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Nothing New: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above 200-Day
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike winter wheats, spring wheat’s ability to stay above the 200-day remains encouraging, with this level now expected to act as support on any growing season pullbacks. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

4-23 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Continue Slide While Soybeans Rally on Trade Optimism

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures posted a third straight session of losses Wednesday. A firmer U.S. dollar and ongoing weakness in the wheat market pressured values across the corn complex.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures closed higher for a second straight day supported by optimism around potential U.S.–China tariff relief.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures extended losses Tuesday as wetter conditions across the Southern Plains continued to weigh on values.

  • To see the updated U.S. 10-day precipitation forecast and 10-15-day temperature outlook as well as the 10-day global precipitation forecast scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop.  This should be the eighth sale for your 2024 corn crop.

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 546 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Current Rec: The July contract has recently stalled, encountering strong selling pressure in the 494–496 range. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed U.S. corn planting moving ahead of the five-year average — a trend that, if it continues, could reduce the market’s urgency to bid aggressively for old crop supplies. Additionally, a key Plan B technical indicator that Grain Market Insider closely tracks turned lower on Tuesday, issuing a sell signal. Given the rally from the March low and the seasonal timing, this remains a timely opportunity to make an eighth sale of the 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No Changes: Exit targets for December options remain unchanged, and no new sales targets posted today.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • No Changes: Following the recent recommendation to make a third sale, no new sales targets posted today.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw selling for the third consecutive day as the July contract has traded nearly 20 cents of the most recent high. A strong U.S. dollar and weakness in the wheat market kept a lid on corn prices for the session.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index has bounced from recent lows this week, trending higher as market fears surrounding tariffs and trade policy begin to ease. The stronger greenback continues to cap upside potential in corn by dampening export competitiveness.

  • Weekly ethanol production rose to 1.033 million barrels per day, up 297.5 million barrels from the previous week and 8% above year-ago levels. Ethanol use accounted for 103.5 million bushels of corn last week — just shy of the pace needed to meet USDA annual projections.

  • Traders are eyeing Thursday’s weekly export sales report, with expectations for corn sales between 800,000 and 1.3 MMT. Last week’s total came in at 1.561 MMT, highlighting continued strong demand for U.S. corn.

  • With First Notice Day for May corn approaching on April 30, producers are under pressure to price basis contracts. Meanwhile, traders holding long positions must exit to avoid delivery — often leading to additional downside pressure in the market.arket.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • Plan B Target: While Plan A remains to make the next cash sale at 1093 vs November, markets don’t always cooperate. A new downside stop has been posted as a precaution in case the market falls short of that upside target. Key support for the current uptrend sits at 1016.75. A break below that level could signal a trend shift and reduce the odds of reaching the Plan A target. Grain Market Insider prefers to avoid selling on down days, but sometimes conditions call for flexibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the second consecutive day amid further discussions that President Trump might lower tariffs on certain goods from China. Futures were bull spread with the front months posting the majority of gains and November just 1 cent higher. Soybean meal was lower while soybean oil was higher despite a selloff in crude.

  • U.S. soybean planting is off to a strong start, with 8% of the crop planted — ahead of the five-year average. Near-term rains are expected, but longer-range forecasts show a drier May across North America, raising concerns about summer drought potential and adding weather premium to prices.

  • Market sentiment was lifted by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remarks to investors suggesting a trade deal with China could materialize “sooner than later.” China remains heavily reliant on Brazilian soybean imports for now.

  • Estimates for tomorrow’s weekly export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 500k and 700k metric tons. While China has not been a very active buyer of U.S. soybeans, their demand for Brazilian beans has been supportive to prices globally.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower again, continuing to be influenced by the wetter weather in the southern plains. Rainfall totals between 1.5–3 inches are expected, easing drought stress and improving prospects for the winter wheat crop. A stronger U.S. Dollar added further downside pressure.

  • Geopolitical uncertainty also resurfaced after reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected a U.S. proposal to recognize Russian control of Crimea in a ceasefire deal. The news renewed concerns over a prolonged conflict, which could affect grain flows out of the Black Sea region.

  • Warm and wet conditions over the past couple of weeks in Ukraine have helped to relieve drought and replenish soil moisture, however the risks still remain. Some of their main wheat growing areas still have moisture deficits and above normal temperatures are expected to persist through the end of this week.

  • Meanwhile, dry conditions in Argentina have supported soybean and corn harvest progress. However, the country’s winter wheat planting season begins in May, and additional rainfall will be necessary to ensure healthy crop establishment.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Nothing New: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Nothing New: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Nothing New: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Eye Key Breakout Above 200-Day Moving Average
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and prices are building upward again this April. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Nothing New: Still no active price targets, as the July contract continues to chop around in the 560–580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Nothing New: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Nothing New: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold trendline support so far in April is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Nothing New: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Nothing New: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Nothing New: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above 200-Day
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike winter wheats, spring wheat’s ability to stay above the 200-day remains encouraging, with this level now expected to act as support on any growing season pullbacks. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

10-day total precipitation forecast

10-day Global total precipitation forecast

|

4-22 End of Day: Corn Pressured by Rapid Planting Pace; Soybeans Edge Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Selling pressure hit the corn market on Tuesday, as faster-than-expected planting progress sparked selling across both old and new crop contracts.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures closed higher on Tuesday, defying losses in corn and wheat, gains in soybeans came even as both soybean meal and oil futures ended the day lower.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures ended modestly lower across all three classes Tuesday, pressured a rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index and a general lack of fresh supportive news.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast and 8–14-day temperature outlook as well as the 30-day percent of normal precipitation for South America scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop today.  This should be the eighth sale for your 2024 corn crop.

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 546 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.25.

    • Today’s Rec: Over the last four trading sessions, the July contract has stalled — facing strong selling pressure in the 494–496 range. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed U.S. corn planting beginning to move ahead of the five-year average. If that trend continues, the market may ease back on its need to bid aggressively for old crop supplies.  In addition, a key Plan B technical indicator that Grain Market Insider monitors closely turned lower today, giving a sell signal. With the July contract still up roughly 37 cents from its March low, today is viewed as an opportunity to make an eighth sale of the 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No Changes: Exit targets for December options remain unchanged, and no new sales targets posted today.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • No Changes: Following the recent recommendation to make a third sale, no new sales targets posted today.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure hit the corn market on Tuesday, as faster-than-expected planting progress sparked selling across both old and new crop contracts. July corn futures closed at their lowest level since April 10, with technical charts now signaling further weakness.

  • This week’s USDA Crop Progress report showed 12% of the corn crop planted, up 8% from the previous week and ahead of market expectations. The five-year average for this time is 10%. The strong pace eased earlier concerns about potential planting delays due to wet weather.

  • Expectations for South American corn production are also trending higher. Recent late-season rainfall has benefited crops in key areas, with Brazil now potentially on track for a corn crop exceeding 125 MMT. In addition, Argentina weather is drying out, allowing for harvest to progress of their corn crop.

  • A firmer U.S. Dollar and a recovery in equity markets contributed to long liquidation in corn futures, triggering money flow out of the market and pushing prices toward key support levels.

  • With First Notice Day for May corn contracts set for April 30, producers will need to price basis contracts or bushels, while market participants must exit long May positions or risk delivery. This window often brings additional selling pressure into the market.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • Plan B Target: While Plan A remains to make the next cash sale at 1093 vs November, markets don’t always cooperate. A new downside stop has been posted as a precaution in case the market falls short of that upside target. Key support for the current uptrend sits at 1016.75. A break below that level could signal a trend shift and reduce the odds of reaching the Plan A target. Grain Market Insider prefers to avoid selling on down days, but sometimes conditions call for flexibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures closed higher on Tuesday, defying losses in corn and wheat. Favorable planting weather has kept pace moving steadily, yet soybeans have remained rangebound, trading within a 15-cent band over the past week. Futures continue to struggle to close above the 200-day moving average, though a bull flag formation is developing. Notably, gains in soybeans came even as both soybean meal and oil futures ended the day lower.

  • Sentiment in the soybean market was buoyed by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who told an investor group he expects a trade deal with China to be reached “sooner than later.” Currently, China continues to source most of its soybean needs from Brazil.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw that 8% of the soybean crop has been planted which compares to the average trade guess of 7% and 2% a week ago. Last year at this time, the crop was 7% planted, and the 5-year average pace is 5%.

  • In March, Chinese soybean imports from the U.S. rose 12% compared to the same period last year; however, this increase occurred before the latest round of tariffs were imposed. Brazil remains the dominant supplier to China’s soybean market.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with modest losses in all three futures classes, pressured new contract lows for Matif wheat, a rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index, rain in the forecast for the Southern Plains, and a general lack of fresh friendly news.

  • According to the USDA’s crop progress report, winter wheat was rated 45% good to excellent as of April 20. This is down 2% from the previous week and 5% from last year; the winter crop is also reported to be 15% headed. As for spring wheat, 17% of the crop is planted, which compared with 14% a year ago and a five-year average of 12% complete. Just 2% of the spring crop has emerged, in line with last year and the average.

  • Weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions and near- to below-average temperatures in India over the next couple of weeks, which should aid the country’s wheat harvest. In contrast, dryness in northern China is raising concerns over wheat crop development.

  • Russian wheat exports continue to run behind last year’s pace. SovEcon has estimated Russia’s April wheat exports at 2 mmt, which is below both the 5 mmt shipped last year, as well as a five-year average of 3.5 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Eye Key Breakout Above 200-Day Moving Average
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and prices are building upward again this April. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550-580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold trendline support so far in April is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above 200-Day
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike winter wheats, spring wheat’s ability to stay above the 200-day remains encouraging, with this level now expected to act as support on any growing season pullbacks. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

|

4-21 End of Day: Risk-off Trade Weighs on Grains Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Heavy selling in the equity markets limited upside for corn Monday; this came despite strong export inspections and a sharply lower U.S. Dollar.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures ended lower on Monday, surrendering overnight gains as broad-based weakness across outside markets weighed on the entire grain complex.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures ended lower on Monday, pressured by weakness in outside markets and beneficial rainfall across the Southern Plains over the weekend, with additional precipitation forecasted this week.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast and 10-day temperature anomaly forecast as well as the 14-day precipitation forecast for South America scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 546 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 495.50.

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, keep taking advantage of up days in the 487 to 512 range vs July to make catch-up sales.

    • No Changes: 546 vs July remains the price target to trigger the eighth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No Changes: Exit targets for December options remain unchanged, and no new sales targets posted today.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • No Changes: Following the recent recommendation to make a third sale, no new sales targets posted today.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures started the week on a softer note as risk-off sentiment, triggered by heavy selling in the equity markets, limited upside potential. Despite strong demand and a sharp break in the U.S. Dollar Index, corn struggled to find footing throughout the session.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index continued its downward trend, trading to its lowest level since April 2022. The weaker dollar has helped offset the impact of potential tariffs, kept U.S. corn competitive in the export market, and encouraged fund money flow into the commodity sector.

  • USDA released weekly export inspections during Monday’s session. For the week ending April 17, U.S. exporters shipped 1.703 MMT (67 mb) of corn. This total was above market analysts’ expectations and remains at a strong pace. Current corn inspections are running 29% over last year and exceed expectations to reach the USDA export target for the current marketing year by approximately 180 mb.

  • Traders are also awaiting Monday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report, with close attention on potential planting delays following recent wet weather across parts of the Corn Belt. However, some regions may surprise to the upside, as planting progress for corn and soybeans had been gaining momentum prior to the rains.

  • Expectations for South American corn production are also trending higher. Recent late-season rainfall has benefited crops in key areas, with Brazil now potentially on track for a corn crop exceeding 125 MMT. This could create additional pressure on U.S. export demand in the summer months.

Corn Starts April Strong
After spending much of March hovering just above key support at 450, corn futures have surged higher to start April. A friendly April WASDE report—highlighting stronger demand—has helped fuel the rally, with futures pushing through resistance at the 50-day moving average. The next upside target is the February highs just above 500, while near-term support is expected to be near 470, at the upper end of the previous trading range.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 70,997 contracts between April 8 – April 15, bringing their total position to a net long 124,573 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • New Plan B Target: While Plan A remains to make the next cash sale at 1093 vs November, markets don’t always cooperate. A new downside stop has been posted as a precaution in case the market falls short of that upside target. Key support for the current uptrend sits at 1016.75. A break below that level could signal a trend shift and reduce the odds of reaching the Plan A target. Grain Market Insider prefers to avoid selling on down days, but sometimes conditions call for flexibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures ended lower Monday, giving back overnight gains as widespread bearishness across outside markets pressured the entire grain complex. Equities, the U.S. Dollar, crude oil, and bond markets all traded lower amid tariff uncertainties and reports of tensions between President Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Both soybean meal and soybean oil futures also closed weaker.

  • In March, Chinese soybean imports from the U.S. rose 12% compared to the same period last year; however, this increase occurred before the latest round of tariffs were imposed. Brazil remains the dominant supplier to China’s soybean market.

  • Today’s export inspections report was once again middle of the road for soybeans where corn and wheat were above expectations. Soybean inspections totaled 20.2 million bushels for the week ending April 17. Total inspections for 24/25 are now at 1.568 bb, up 11% from the previous year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds turning bullish on soybeans as of April 15, buying back 76,616 contracts to flip to a new net long position of 26,169 contracts. Funds were also active in the products, purchasing 10,834 contracts of soybean oil and 28,030 contracts of soybean meal.crude oil this week of around 3 dollars a barrel.

Volatile Start to April for Soybeans
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April following newly announced tariffs, breaking key support near the 1000 level that had held firm through March. However, early April strength has since fueled a rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages—most notably the 200-day, which has capped rallies over the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now targeting the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average should offer support on any spring pullbacks.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 76,616 contracts between April 8 – April 15, bringing their total position to a net long 26,169 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Chicago wheat futures led the complex lower on Monday, despite the U.S. Dollar falling to a new near-term low and a positive close in Paris milling wheat futures. Pressure on U.S. wheat was likely tied to beneficial rainfall across the Southern Plains over the weekend, with more precipitation in the forecast. Additional spillover weakness from the equity markets may have weighed on sentiment, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down over 1,200 points at midday.

  • Weekly wheat inspections were pegged at 18.7 mb, which brings total 24/25 inspections to 691 mb, up 14% from last year. This is below the USDA’s estimated pace – they are estimating exports at 820 mb, which would be up 16% from the year prior.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $250-$252/mt, which was steady with the week before. Additionally, SovEcon said that Russia exported 450,000 mt of wheat last week versus 470,000 mt the prior week. SovEcon is estimating Russian wheat exports in April will total 2 mmt, which is far below the 5 mmt from April last year.

  • Chinese customs data indicates that for the month of March, their nation’s wheat and wheat flour imports totaled 190,000 mt – this is down 89.4% year over year for that month. Additionally, year to date imports declined 93% vs last year to just 300,000 mt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,693 contracts between April 8 – April 15, bringing their total position to a net short 96,439 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550-580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,462 contracts between April 8 – April 15, bringing their total position to a net short 47,372 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 7,689 contracts between April 8 – April 15, bringing their total position to a net short 21,155 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

7-day Precipitation Forecast from ag-wx.com

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

|

4-17 End of Day: Heading Into Holiday Weekend: Corn, Soybeans Close Lower; Wheat Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, April 18, in Observance of Good Friday

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: After a volatile trading session, corn futures ended the day in the red, despite another week of solid export sales.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures closed lower heading into the holiday weekend, even with export sales landing at the higher end of trade expectations in today’s report.

  • Wheat: Wheat prices lost strength from earlier in the session, ultimately finishing mixed. Pressure came from weaker export sales and fresh estimates pointing to increased global wheat production this year.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 546 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 495.50.

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, keep taking advantage of up days in the 487 to 512 range vs July to make catch-up sales.

    • Eighth Sales Rec: If July trades to 546 that will trigger the eighth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop. This is the seventh sales recommendation to date.

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Rally: The December ’25 contract has rallied roughly 30 cents from its March 31 low of 436.50.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2026 corn crop. This is the third sales recommendation to date.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Rally: The December ’26 contract has rallied roughly 30 cents from its March 31 low of 443.50 and is now encountering resistance around its February high of 472.50.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Despite another strong week of export sales, corn futures failed to find any traction and finished the trading week with mild losses as the most active July futures consolidated around the 490-price level. July corn futures finished the week 6 ¾ cents lower.

  • The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending April 10, U.S. exporters reported new sales of 1.562 MMT (61.5 MB). Corn sales commitments now total 2.228 bb in 2024-25 and are up 27% from a year ago. This total is still ahead of the recently adjusted USDA export pace. Mexico was the largest buyer of U.S. corn last week.

  • Front-end corn futures could be under pressure with corn movement and pricing. Pricing of May basis contract can bring sellers into the market as producers are looking to wrap up cash sales before getting into field work.

  • Weather will be a key focus over the weekend, with another round of rainfall expected across the Southern Plains. Continued wet conditions could further complicate the region’s already soggy fields, potentially delaying early-season planting progress.

  • Monday’s USDA Planting Progress report will give a view of the pace of planting in some areas, as producers are progressing on both early corn and soybean planting windows.

Corn Starts April Strong
After spending much of March hovering just above key support at 450, corn futures have surged higher to start April. A friendly April WASDE report—highlighting stronger demand—has helped fuel the rally, with futures pushing through resistance at the 50-day moving average. The next upside target is the February highs just above 500, while near-term support is expected to be near 470, at the upper end of the previous trading range.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • New Plan B Target: While Plan A remains to make the next cash sale at 1093 vs November, markets don’t always cooperate. A new downside stop has been posted as a precaution in case the market falls short of that upside target. Key support for the current uptrend sits at 1016.75. A break below that level could signal a trend shift and reduce the odds of reaching the Plan A target. Grain Market Insider prefers to avoid selling on down days, but sometimes conditions call for flexibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures ended the shortened holiday week lower, retreating by as much as 7 cents. Despite attempts over the past five sessions, soybeans failed to close above the 200-day moving average, highlighting the ongoing resistance at that level. Soybean meal also finished lower, while soybean oil gained ground, following the upward movement in crude oil.

  • Today’s export sales report saw soybean sales on the higher end of trade estimates, especially for new crop sales. The USDA reported 20.4 mb of soybean sales for 24/25 and 6.7 mb for 25/26. Primary destinations were to Mexico, the Netherlands, and Germany. Export shipments of 26.5 mb were above the 12.3 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange updated their crop progress report which shows 24/25 soybeans now 4.9% harvested which compares to 2.6% last week. Production is still estimated at 48.6 mmt. The Brazilian harvest is virtually complete with China as their top buyer.

  • For the week, May soybeans lost 6-1/4 cents while November gained 7 cents to $10.32-1/2. May soybean meal lost $4.00 to $295.60, and May soybean oil gained 0.52 cents to 47.87 cents. Soybean oil benefitted from an increase in crude oil this week of around 3 dollars a barrel.

Volatile Start to April for Soybeans
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April following newly announced tariffs, breaking key support near the 1000 level that had held firm through March. However, early April strength has since fueled a rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages—most notably the 200-day, which has capped rallies over the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now targeting the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average should offer support on any spring pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed mixed on the day after giving back earlier strength. Chicago and Minneapolis contracts posted modest gains, while Kansas City futures edged lower. Rainfall across key growing areas in Kansas may have pressured the Kansas City market, while there may have been some profit taking ahead of the three-day weekend.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 2.8 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 10.1 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 17.8 mb fell under the 21.4 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 820 mb. Total wheat sales commitments have reached 787 mb, up 14% from last year.

  • SovEcon is reported to have raised their estimate of Russia’s 2025 wheat crop production by 1.1 mmt to 79.7 mmt. On a related bullish note, Russia’s wheat stocks as of April 1 are said to be almost 50% less than they were a year ago.

  • According to the USDA, as of April 15, an estimated 34% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions; this is up 2% from last week. Spring wheat areas in drought held steady at 43%, however. Nonetheless, more moisture is needed for wheat growing regions.

  • FranceAgriMer has issued new estimates of French soft wheat exports for the 24/25 season. They lowered their projection of exports outside of the EU by 0.1 mmt to 3.1 mmt. However, they increased the forecast for exports within the EU from 6.28 mmt to 6.42 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550-580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

4-16 End of Day: Grains Rebound on Weaker Dollar

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, April 18, in Observance of Good Friday

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures ended modestly higher in a quiet session, with limited fresh news.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans finished higher, recovering from early session losses of up to 10 cents as a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar supported the broader commodity complex.

  • Wheat: All three U.S. wheat futures classes closed higher, supported by a sharply lower U.S. dollar, and spillover strength from corn and soybeans.

  • To see the updated 14-day U.S. and South American precipitation anomaly outlooks scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 546 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, keep taking advantage of up days in the 487 to 512 range vs July to make catch-up sales.

    • Eighth Sales Rec: If July trades to 546 that will trigger the eighth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop: 

  • NEW ALERT – Sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop today. This is the seventh sales recommendation to date.

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Rally: The December ’25 contract has rallied roughly 30 cents from its March 31 low of 436.50.

2026 Crop: 

  • NEW ALERT – Sell a portion of your 2026 corn crop today. This is the third sales recommendation to date.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Rally: The December ’26 contract has rallied roughly 30 cents from its March 31 low of 443.50 and is now encountering resistance around its February high of 472.50.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Quiet day in the corn market as prices finished with small gains on Wednesday’s session. Fresh news for the corn market was limited, but more weakness in the U.S. dollar helped support the grain markets as traders positioned ahead of the 3-day Easter weekend.

  • Weekly ethanol production fell to 1.012 million barrels/day, a 7-month low. While down from the previous week, production remains 3% above year-ago levels. Roughly 101 million bushels of corn were used—below the pace needed to meet USDA’s annual target.

  • The U.S. dollar continued to soften, nearing its lowest level since April 2022. The ongoing weakness in the dollar is broadly supportive for grain and commodity markets.

  • Weather will be closely watched over the weekend as another round of rainfall is slated for the southern Plains. This could compound the issues in that region regarding wetness and limit early-season planting pace.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. The current export sales pace is trending well ahead of the current USDA pace. Last week, corn export sales were within expectations, but slightly disappointing at 748,000 MT.

Corn Starts April Strong
After spending much of March hovering just above key support at 450, corn futures have surged higher to start April. A friendly April WASDE report—highlighting stronger demand—has helped fuel the rally, with futures pushing through resistance at the 50-day moving average. The next upside target is the February highs just above 500, while near-term support is expected to be near 470, at the upper end of the previous trading range.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 the third. These targets remain unchanged, and Grain Market Insider remains optimistic that the November contract could still reach them.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were higher to end the day after recovering from lower prices overnight that were down as much as 10 cents. The U.S. dollar fell sharply today which was likely supportive to commodities across the board, and fears of planting delays have likely been supportive as well. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher.

  • Planting concerns persist as some regions remain wet, though early planting has begun in select areas. Historically, soybeans planted by early May tend to yield better—21% of the crop is typically planted by May 1 on average.

  • Brazilian soybean exports are seen at 14.5 mmt for the month of April which compares to a previous estimate of 13.3 mmt. At this point, China is buying virtually all of its soybeans from Brazil and basically none from the U.S.

  • Brazil soybean prices have turned softer as harvest is in the back-end stages. China has been a strong purchaser on Brazil soybeans, up to 60-70 cargoes last week, including supplies for Feb-Mar 2026. Farmer selling has picked up, pressuring basis premiums in Brazil, limiting the strength in U.S. soybean prices.

Volatile Start to April for Soybeans
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April following newly announced tariffs, breaking key support near the 1000 level that had held firm through March. However, early April strength has since fueled a rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages—most notably the 200-day, which has capped rallies over the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now targeting the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average should offer support on any spring pullbacks.

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three U.S. wheat futures classes closed higher, supported by a sharply lower U.S. dollar, spillover strength from corn and soybeans, and a possible technical rebound after recent losses.

  • India’s wheat reserves rose to 11.8 MMT, a three-year high and well above the government’s 7.5 MMT target—a potentially bearish signal for global markets.

  • Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat harvest is forecast at 20.5 MMT, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. That’s 2 MMT above last year, with potential for further growth if a recent export tax reduction is extended. If realized, it would be Argentina’s second-largest wheat crop on record.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550-580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Above: From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

|

4-15 End of Day: Grain Futures Mixed: Corn, Soybeans Diverge; Wheat Slides

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, April 18, in Observance of Good Friday

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Mixed trade continued in the corn market, with old crop futures under selling pressure while deferred contracts found support.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed mixed, with front-month contracts under pressure while new crop futures gained on continued expectations for reduced planted acreage.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across the board, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and a weaker close in Matif wheat futures.

  • To see the updated 30-day percent of normal precipitation map for South America as well as the 8-14-day U.S. precipitation and temperature outlooks scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 546 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 495.50.

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, keep taking advantage of up days in the 487 to 512 range vs July to make catch-up sales.

    • Eighth Sales Rec: If July trades to 546 that will trigger the eighth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.75.

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all six sales to date, keep taking advantage of up days in the 460 to 480 range vs December to make catch-up sales.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a seventh sale for the new crop. Continue to stay patient if you are in line with the six sales recommendations.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: A third sales recommendation is likely tomorrow.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date.

    • Third Sale Rec: The December ’26 contract has rallied 30 cents from its March 31 low of 443.50 and is now encountering resistance at its February high of 472.50. It also has outperformed the December ’25 contract this month, which remains about 15 cents below its February high of 479.75.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Mixed market trade continues in the corn market as old crop corn futures see additional selling pressure, offset by buying strength in the deferred contracts. Bear spreading has narrowed the old crop/new crop spread despite a firm demand tone on the front end.

  • Market momentum remained subdued, with light holiday-week trade and a quiet news cycle contributing to lower activity. The lack of fresh headlines allowed front-month corn to drift lower in search of technical support.

  • USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Tuesday morning. Portugal stepped into the U.S. corn export market and purchased 110,000 MT of corn for the current marketing year. This was the second consecutive day of an old crop export sale.

  • Brazil’s second corn crop outlook continues to improve, supported by favorable weather and increased precipitation potential. The monsoon season in areas of Brazil has found a second leg, which should boost production and limit some overall concerns for the key second crop corn.

Corn Starts April Strong
After spending much of March hovering just above key support at 450, corn futures have surged higher to start April. A friendly April WASDE report—highlighting stronger demand—has helped fuel the rally, with futures pushing through resistance at the 50-day moving average. The next upside target is the February highs just above 500, while near-term support is expected to be near 470, at the upper end of the previous trading range.

Above: Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 the third. These targets remain unchanged, and Grain Market Insider remains optimistic that the November contract could still reach them.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the front months lower but new crop soybeans higher in more anticipation of smaller planted acres. May soybean futures are overbought with the stochastics showing a sell crossover, which may be adding pressure. Soybean meal was lower while soybean oil ended the day higher.

  • Yesterday, the USDA released the first progress report for soybean plantings. 2% of the crop is reported as planted, which compares to 3% last year and the 5-year average of 2% at this time. The 6-10 forecast shows above-average precipitation throughout most of the country, which could delay planting.

  • Today’s NOPA crush report saw soybean crush for March at 194.5 million bushels, which was below the average trade guess of 197.6 mb. This compared to 196.4 mb last year, and soybean oil stocks were seen at 1.498 billion pounds compared to estimates of 1.612 bp and 1.851 bp a year ago at this time.

  • Brazil soybean prices have turned softer as harvest is in the back-end stages. China has been a strong purchaser on Brazil soybeans, up to 60-70 cargoes last week, including supplies for Feb-Mar 2026. Farmer selling has picked up, pressuring basis premiums in Brazil, limiting the strength in U.S. soybean prices.

Volatile Start to April for Soybeans
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April following newly announced tariffs, breaking key support near the 1000 level that had held firm through March. However, early April strength has since fueled a rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages—most notably the 200-day, which has capped rallies over the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now targeting the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average should offer support on any spring pullbacks.

Above: Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across the board, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and a weaker close in Matif wheat futures. In addition, the extended weather forecast calling for more rain across the Southern Plains limited any rally attempts.

  • According to yesterday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report, winter wheat conditions slipped 1% from last week to 47% good to excellent – this compares to 55% good to excellent at this time last year. Additionally, 8% of the crop is headed, down from 10% last year but in line with the five-year average. Finally, spring wheat is 7% planted, up 1% from a year ago, but steady with the five-year average.

  • Warmer weather is expected across the Southern Plains this week, with temperatures potentially reaching the 90s as far north as central Kansas. However, meaningful rainfall is forecast for Easter weekend, and the outlook remains wet into the end of April—supportive for crop development.

  • France’s agriculture ministry raised its estimate for soft wheat planted area to 4.63 million hectares, up from 4.57 million in February and 10% higher year-over-year. The ministry also reported that overall wheat conditions are improving as the season progresses.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550-580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

Above: Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Above: Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

|

4-14 End of Day: Grains Mixed to Lower on Weather Pressure and Technical Selling

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures declined to start the week, pulling back from overbought conditions as spillover weakness from the wheat market added pressure.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day mixed, with front-month contracts closing lower while new crop prices firmed on bear spreading.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes, led by double-digit losses in Kansas City contracts. The downturn was largely driven by forecasts for beneficial rains in the U.S. Southern and Southwestern Plains.

  • To see the updated 14-day precipitation anomaly outlook for South America as well as the 7-day U.S. precipitation outlook scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 546 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 495.50.

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, keep taking advantage of up days in the 487 to 512 range vs May to make catch-up sales. After tomorrow’s close, this target range will shift to the July futures contract.

    • New Sales Target: 546 is the new target to trigger making an eighth sale on the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.75.

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all six sales to date, today remains a good opportunity to work toward getting caught up — with the close at 462, slightly above the average sales price of 460.75 to date.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a seventh sale for the new crop. Continue to stay patient if you are in line with the six sales recommendations.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a third sale for the new crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures softened to start the week despite firm underlying demand. Pressure stemmed from weakness in the wheat market and long liquidation, which weighed on corn prices.

  • Front-month contracts bore the brunt as profit-taking narrowed the old crop/new crop spread. Increased grain movement, with producers marketing bushels ahead of the planting window, also added pressure.

  • USDA announced a flash sale of corn on Monday morning. Japan stepped into the U.S. corn export market and purchased 120,000 MT (4.7 mb) for the current marketing year.

  • Weekly corn export inspections were very strong in the USDA export inspections report. For the week ending April 10, U.S. Exporters shipped 1.829 MMT of corn. This total was above market expectations. Total corn shipments are running 30% above last year’s pace and still ahead of the USDA-raised export target for the marketing year.

  • Brazil’s second corn crop outlook continues to improve, supported by favorable weather and increased precipitation potential. CONAB recently raised production estimates, and trends remain positive as the growing season advances.

Corn Starts April Strong
After spending much of March hovering just above key support at 450, corn futures have surged higher to start April. A friendly April WASDE report—highlighting stronger demand—has helped fuel the rally, with futures pushing through resistance at the 50-day moving average. The next upside target is the February highs just above 500, while near-term support is expected to be near 470, at the upper end of the previous trading range.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,181 contracts between April 1 – April 8, bringing their total position to a net long 53,576 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Catch-Up Target Hit: If you haven’t made all three sales to date, make a catch-up sale today as the May contract hit the 1047 target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 14.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 the third. These targets remain unchanged, and Grain Market Insider remains optimistic that the November contract could still reach them.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with a lower close in the front months but higher new crop prices in bear spreading action. Traders continue to expect a smaller acreage number this season supporting the back months. It was interesting that soybeans were only down slightly when soybean meal lost $2.50 and soybean oil lost 1.03 cents in the May contracts.

  • Today’s export inspections report was middle of the road for soybeans with 20.1 million bushels inspected for the week ending April 10 and was between the average trade estimates. Total inspections for 24/25 are now at 1.547 billion bushels, which is up 11% from the previous year.

  • March NOPA crush is projected at 197.6 million bushels, which would mark a record for the month of March. This follows a five-month low in February but still falls short of December’s 205 million bushels.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 20,600 contracts of soybeans increasing their net short position to 50,447 contracts. They bought 35,887 contracts of bean oil and 3,103 contracts of meal. Funds are estimated to have bought back 26,000 contracts of beans over the past three days.

Volatile Start to April for Soybeans
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April following newly announced tariffs, breaking key support near the 1000 level that had held firm through March. However, early April strength has since fueled a rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages—most notably the 200-day, which has capped rallies over the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now targeting the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average should offer support on any spring pullbacks.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 20,600 contracts between April 1 – April 8, bringing their total position to a net short 50,447 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes, led by double-digit losses in Kansas City contracts. The downturn was largely driven by forecasts for beneficial rains in the U.S. Southern and Southwestern Plains. Additional pressure came from profit-taking after Friday’s rally and futures encountering technical resistance.

  • Weekly wheat inspections were pegged at 22.2 mb, bringing total 24/25 inspections to 672 mb, which is up 14% from last year. On last week’s WASDE report, the USDA dropped their estimate of 24/25 wheat exports from 835 mb to 820 mb, which would still be up 16% from the year prior.

  • Russian wheat export values declined by $1 last week, to $250/MT FOB, according to IKAR. SovEcon reported weekly Russian wheat exports at 450,000 MT—up 30,000 MT from the previous week—but expects total April shipments to reach only 1.9 MMT, significantly below the 5 MMT exported in April 2024.

  • Analyst APK-Inform has estimated that the Ukrainian 2025 grain harvest may increase by 8% to 57.5 mmt, largely due to a bigger corn crop. They also estimated Ukraine will harvest 21.5 mmt of wheat, which would be down from the 22 mmt crop in 2024. Finally, APK-Inform projected Ukraine’s 25/26 total grain exports would increase by 11% to 42.6 mmt.

  • The CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report indicated that as of the week ending April 8, money managers bought almost 10,000 contracts of Chicago wheat – this is nearly a 9% reduction in their net short position, which now sits at just over 102,000 contracts. During the same period, they increased their net short in Kansas City wheat by more than 4,000 contracts (or just over 9%) to nearly 50,000 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 9,908 contracts between April 1 – April 8, bringing their total position to a net short 102,132 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550-570 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,159 contracts between April 1 – April 8, bringing their total position to a net short 49,834 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 164 contracts between April 1 – April 8, bringing their total position to a net short 28,844 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com