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3-7 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans End Volatile Week Near Unchanged

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures ended the week firm as tariff concerns on Mexico and Canada eased. May corn futures finished ¼ cent lower for the week after volatile trading.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans and soybean meal closed mixed on Friday, while soybean oil posted gains. For the week, May soybeans ended near unchanged, recovering 34 cents from early-week lows.

  • Wheat: Wheat closed lower across all classes to end the week, despite another down day for the U.S. Dollar, which fell to its lowest level since November.

  • To see the updated 10-day ECMWF precipitation forecast for South America as well as the 8–14-day U.S. precipitation outlook scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Strong Price Recovery: The May contract closed about 27 cents above this week’s low of 442.50 and ended the week only slightly lower.

  • No Official Targets: There have been three official sales recommendations year-to-date, and currently there’s no active target for a fourth sale.

    • Catch-Up Zone: If you haven’t made three sales for 2025 yet, the suggested zone is 480–490 vs. May to catch-up.

    • Hold Steady: If you’ve followed all three prior recommendations for 2025, Grain Market Insider advises to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY: Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 420 corn puts for approximately 21 cents, plus commission and fees.

  • Downside Protection: Put options serve as a valuable hedging tool, protecting against further downside price erosion on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest.  Combined with the existing call options, this creates a Strangle strategy — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

  • No Official Targets: There have also been three official sales recommendations year-to-date for the 2025 new crop corn, and currently there’s no active target for a fourth sale.

    • Catch-Up Zone: If you haven’t made three sales since January 1 yet, the suggested zone is 462–473 vs. December to catch-up.

    • Hold Steady: If you’ve followed all three prior sales recommendations since January 1, Grain Market Insider advises to sit tight for now.

2026 Crop: 

  • Active Window: The first 2026 upside targets could post at any time — stay tuned for updates!

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the week with modest gains as tariff concerns on Mexico and Canada eased. May corn futures finished ¼ cent lower on the week after volatile trading.

  • The Trump administration on Thursday delayed tariffs against Mexico AND Canada for all goods covered under USMCA agreement until at least April 2. This action helped limit trade war fears going into the weekend.

  • Reflecting the strong demand tone, the US Census Bureau released corn export totals for the month of January. The USA exported 6.16 MMT (243 mb) of corn in January, edging 1990‘s highs and setting an all-time record.

  • The corn market is monitoring Brazil’s weather forecasts, as some key corn-growing regions are experiencing warm and dry conditions, which could impact second-crop production.

  • February rains in Argentina’s key grain-producing regions exceeded recent averages and aligned with long-term precipitation trends, marking a recovery after a dry January. March forecasts indicate a wetter pattern until mid-month.

Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low, with follow-through gains next week reinforcing the outlook. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Strong Weekly Reversal: The May contract finished the week 34 cents off this week’s low of 991, and less than a penny lower overall on the week.

  • New Highs: Given the early timing and soybeans’ tendency to post later seasonal highs than corn, Grain Market Insider is currently leaning toward a price target above the February high of 1079.75 for the next sale recommendation.

  • Catch-up Zone: There have been three official sales recs on 2024 soybeans year-to-date.
    • If you haven’t made three sales since January 1, target 1056–1076 to catch up.

    • If you’re in line with the three sales recommendations, the advice is still to sit tight for now.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to re-own previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The soybean market ended mixed, still digesting tariff-related news, particularly President Trump’s delay of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Soybeans and soybean meal closed mixed, while soybean oil posted gains.

  • U.S. soybean exports are expected to decline, as a larger portion of Chinese demand is anticipated to shift away from the U.S. Additionally, global buyers are increasingly turning to fresh beans from South America as the harvest season advances.

  • Early next week, the USDA’s March Supply and Demand report will take center stage for the markets. There is a high risk that the USDA may lower its soybean export forecast due to China’s 10% retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans. If ending stocks rise more than expected, it could trigger a bearish market reaction, potentially explaining today’s minor weakness. While a new trade deal between the U.S. and China could spark a rally, the ongoing tariff uncertainty remains a negative factor for the market.

  • The USDA has slightly raised its forecast for Brazil’s 2025 soybean production to 169.18 mmt (6.216 billion bushels), up from the previous estimate of 169 mmt. This marks the first upward revision by the USDA for Brazil’s soybean harvest since September 2024, despite several private consultants predicting production figures of around 170 mmt or higher.

  • Despite some recent precipitation, Argentina’s soybean crops remain drought-stressed in several of the country’s top growing regions. As a result, the USDA is expected to reduce its outlook for Argentina’s soybean harvest for the second consecutive month.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000 Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As the calendar flipped to March improved weather and harvest pressure in South America led to a sharp price decline. Support held this week around 1000, with a stronger backing near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a key barrier.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across all classes, following a decline in Paris milling wheat futures and despite a drop in the US Dollar. With little fundamental change, the market remains driven by headlines and uncertainties related to tariffs and geopolitics.

  • Next Tuesday will feature the monthly WASDE report. The average pre-report estimate is for a slight bump to the US 24/25 wheat carryout, up 2 mb from last month to 796 mb. As for world ending stocks, the average trade guess is relatively steady at 257.5 mmt, which would be down 0.1 mmt from February.

  • According to Tass, Russia may impose limits on grain sales, if their 2025 harvest comes in lower than expected. The government said they will initiate “non-tariff” measures if needed. The wheat crop that was planted in the fall faced a dry spell, which could affect the crop when it is harvested this year.

  • FranceAgriMer has released data on French wheat conditions. The soft wheat crop was rated 74% good or very good as of March 3, which is up 1% from the week before. They added that February has been more mild normal.

  • The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has estimated world grain stocks at 869.3 mmt for the 24/25 season, which is up 2.7 mmt from the prior estimate and compares with 885.8 mmt last season. Additionally, they project global wheat production at 796 mmt, which is up 1% year over year because of higher EU production.  

2024 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Head Fake
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range that marked the end of 2024. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rebound.

2024 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Breaks Lower
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rally.

2024 Crop:

  • Upside Target: Looking for a retracement back to 625 vs May to recommend another sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Upside Target: Looking for a retracement back to 647.75 vs September to recommend another sale.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

February Whipsaw
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, sending futures back below key moving averages. Moving forward, the 200-day MA is likely to serve as upside resistance, while previous lows near 580 should provide support.

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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3-06 End of Day: Grain Markets Close Higher on Optimistic Tariff News

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures closed higher today, as optimistic news surrounding tariff negotiations brought buyers into the corn market.

  • Soybeans: Soybean prices ended higher for the second consecutive day, following President Trump’s announcement that tariffs on most goods from China would be lifted for the next four weeks.

  • Wheat: Wheat prices saw an uptick today, driven by positive developments in tariff negotiations between the United States and Mexico.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Catch-Up Opportunities: If you missed some or all of the February sales recommendations, watch for a retracement to 480–490 — approximately a 50%-62% recovery from the drop between the February high of 518.75 and today’s low of 442.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY: Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 420 corn puts for approximately 21 cents, plus commission and fees.

  • Downside Protection: Put options serve as a valuable hedging tool, protecting against further downside price erosion on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest. Combined with the existing call options, this creates a Strangle strategy — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

2026 Crop: 

  • Active Window: The first 2026 upside targets could post at any time — stay tuned for updates!

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Friendly tariff news helped bring buyers into the corn market on Thursday as prices finished with moderately strong gains. It has been a volatile week in the corn market, and the May contract is going into the end of the week still down 5 ½ cents on the week, but 22 cents off the low for the week.

  • President Trump announced that tariffs that were to be placed on goods from Mexico would be delayed until April 2 as negotiations between the US and Mexico have shown progress. Other tariffs that have been placed on Canada and China will remain intact at this point. The announcement provided buying strength on the session as Mexico is the top importer of U.S. corn.

  • The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending February 27, U.S. exporters posted new sales of 909,000 MT (35.8 mb) Total export sales are still trending 26% ahead of last year, but that gap has been narrowing in recent weeks and export sales have slowed with higher corn prices and reduced concern for upcoming South American crops. Sales totals are still trending ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA targets for the marketing year.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index maintains its downward path, trading lower for the 4th consecutive day. The lower U.S. dollar should help improve the competitiveness of U.S. corn on the global market.

  • December ‘25 corn futures are struggling to push through the 450 level. The prospects of increased planted acreage and a possible slower demand tone for the second half of the market year are limiting the strength in new crop corn prices.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market had been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Late in February, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. Support for corn should hold near the 450 area. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to re-own previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were higher to end the day for the second consecutive day and the May contract has gained 36-1/4 cents since Tuesday’s low. In addition, stochastics now shows a crossover buy signal which could trigger further buying. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher as well.

  • The bullish momentum today came from an announcement from President Trump that he would lift tariffs on most goods from China for 4 weeks due to economic fears from a trade war. While this news is fundamentally more friendly for corn, the market reacted positively for soybeans as well.

  • Today’s export sales report was on the low end of trade expectations at 13.0 million bushels for 24/25 and 2.0 mb for 25/26. This was below last week’s and last year’s numbers. Export shipments of 29.1 mb were above the 16.8 mb needed each week. Primary destinations were to China, Germany, and Egypt.

  • Soybean oil exports were supportive today as well and were the largest since the beginning of January at 54,800 metric tons. This report did not include a sale of 60,000 mt of bean oil sales since last Friday, and demand has improved with other veg oils like palm oil at higher prices.

Soybeans Fall on Tariff Worries
Front-month soybean futures continued to test the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has limited gains for over 18 months. Improved weather conditions in South America and newly announced tariffs from the Trump Administration at the start of March triggered a sharp decline in prices. Support is expected around 1000, with stronger backing near recent lows of 950. If prices rebound, initial resistance is likely at 1030, with the 200-day moving average serving as a more significant hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat continued its recovery across all three classes today, with the key headline being President Trump’s announcement that tariffs on certain imports from Mexico would be delayed until early April. This development suggests ongoing cooperation between the U.S. and Mexico, as a recent phone call between the two presidents was described as “constructive”.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 12.4 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 as well as an increase of 2.8 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 14.0 mb fell under the 20.7 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 850 mb. Total wheat sales commitments for 24/25 are up 10% from last year at 746 mb.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index declined early in the day but rebounded by the time the grain markets closed, finishing only slightly negative. The renewed strength in the dollar may help explain why wheat ended the day 10-12 cents off its daily highs.

  • According to the USDA as of March 4, an estimated 24% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions. This is up 2% from the week prior and well above 15% last year. The amount of spring wheat area in drought was held steady with last week, however, at 39%.

  • HB4 wheat, developed by Bioceres Crop Solutions Corporation, is said to have received approval in the U.S. for one of four patents. This bio-engineered variety of wheat is bred to be more tolerant of drought and also allow for better weed management. Furthermore, the technology was already approved by the USDA for farming and by the FDA for feed and food usage.

2024 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Head Fake
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range that marked the end of 2024. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rebound.

2024 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Breaks Lower
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rally.

2024 Crop:

  • Upside Target: Looking for a retracement back to 625 vs May to recommend another sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Upside Target: Looking for a retracement back to 647.75 vs September to recommend another sale.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

February Whipsaw
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, sending futures back below key moving averages. Moving forward, the 200-day MA is likely to serve as upside resistance, while previous lows near 580 should provide support.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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3-05 End of Day: Grain Markets Rebound Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Weaker U.S. Dollar

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures closed mixed, with buying support lifting old crop contracts higher, while new crop contracts finished near unchanged.

  • Soybeans: The entire soybean complex rebounded on Wednesday, erasing Tuesday’s losses in both soybeans and soybean meal, while soybean oil posted a modest gain.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures recovered today as a sharply lower U.S. dollar and reports of a potential delay in tariffs on Mexico and Canada provided support.

  • To see the updated 14-day ECMWF precipitation anomaly for South America as well as the 7-day U.S. precipitation outlooks, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Catch-Up Opportunities: If you missed some or all of the February sales recommendations, watch for a retracement to 480–490 — approximately a 50%-62% recovery from the drop between the February high of 518.75 and today’s low of 442.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY: Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 420 corn puts for approximately 21 cents, plus commission and fees.

  • Downside Protection: Put options serve as a valuable hedging tool, protecting against further downside price erosion on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest. Combined with the existing call options, this creates a Strangle strategy — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

2026 Crop: 

  • Active Window: The first 2026 upside targets could post at any time — stay tuned for updates!

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw mixed trade on Wednesday as some buying strength returned to the old crop side of the corn market. A weaker U.S. dollar, potential front-end demand strength, and some relaxation from tariff fears helped support the grain markets.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index dropped to its lowest level since November, improving U.S. export competitiveness amid trade tariff concerns.

  • Ethanol production hit a record high for this week of the year, averaging 1.093 million barrels per day — up 1.1% from last week and 3.4% year-over-year. Estimated corn usage for ethanol was 110.28 million bushels, staying ahead of USDA targets.

  • Weekly export sales, set for release Thursday, will offer insight into demand trends. Recent sales have remained supportive, though high prices near 500 previously softened demand.

  • The market will be very headline-focused regarding any changes to the current trade policy. The grain markets found some buying today as the “talk” was that President Trump would lighten his stance on Mexico and Canada tariffs.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market had been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Late in February, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. Support for corn should hold near the 450 area. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to re-own previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher in a reversal from yesterday’s trade taking back all of the previous day’s losses. The move comes after President Trump said he would delay the Mexican and Canadian tariffs by another month. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher, but soybean meal posted the larger gains.

  • Volatility has ruled the markets over the past two weeks after President Trump said the tariffs on Mexico and Canada would go into effect yesterday. Earlier today, he walked this back, saying that he will grant a one-month exemption for U.S. automakers from new tariffs on these imports. Trump reportedly had a “friendly” conversation with Canada’s Trudeau.

  • While concerns over Chinese retaliatory tariffs initially pressured the market, their impact on old crop sales is expected to be minimal. Optimism remains for a resolution before new crop sales are affected.

  • China has reportedly increased their grain output target as a result of the potential looming trade war. The country aims to produce 700 million tons of grain in 2025, which compares to 650 million tons the previous year.

Soybeans Fall on Tariff Worries
Front-month soybean futures continued to test the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has limited gains for over 18 months. Improved weather conditions in South America and newly announced tariffs from the Trump Administration at the start of March triggered a sharp decline in prices. Support is expected around 1000, with stronger backing near recent lows of 950. If prices rebound, initial resistance is likely at 1030, with the 200-day moving average serving as a more significant hurdle.

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat rebounded today, with the aid of a sharply lower U.S. dollar and easing of tariff related news. The U.S. commerce secretary issued comments that the tariffs on Mexico and Canada could be pushed back. In addition, it is being reported that Trump will give a one-month exemption for U.S. automakers for new tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada.

  • A major storm system is delivering a mix of rain and snow across the central U.S., providing beneficial moisture for winter wheat as it emerges from dormancy. Warmer March temperatures should further aid crop conditions.

  • Russia’s Agriculture Ministry announced plans to expand the 2025 crop area to 84 million hectares, 1 million more than last year, with 55.8 million hectares allocated to spring crops. Additionally, 87% of winter crops are rated good or satisfactory, up from 82% in January.

  • The European Commission has reported that EU soft wheat exports as of March 2 have reached 13.9 mmt since the season began on July 1. This represents a 37% decline from last year’s 22 mmt shipped in the same timeframe.

2024 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Head Fake
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range that marked the end of 2024. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rebound.

2024 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Breaks Lower
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rally.

2024 Crop:

  • Down Streak Ends: After ten consecutive down days, the May contract finally snapped the streak with an eight-cent recovery today.

  • Guidance Unchanged: Despite today’s bounce, the May contract remains 72 cents below its February high. The guidance remains to sit tight and wait for a stronger recovery before taking next actions.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

February Whipsaw
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, sending futures back below key moving averages. Moving forward, the 200-day MA is likely to serve as upside resistance, while previous lows near 580 should provide support.

Above: From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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3-04 End of Day: Grain Markets Slide Amid Tariff Concerns and Trade Uncertainty

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures ended the day lower as tariff concerns and retaliatory measures weighed on the market. May corn futures are now testing key support near 450.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans extended their losing streak to five consecutive sessions following President Trump’s confirmation that tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China would proceed.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures continued their downward trend today alongside corn and soybeans as concerns over tariffs and a potential trade war weighed on the market.

  • To see the updated 8–14-day precipitation and temperature outlooks for the U.S. as well as the 10-day GEFS precipitation forecast for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Unchanged Guidance: With the severity of this ongoing selloff and three February sales recommendations already in place, Grain Market Insider advises holding off on any additional old crop sales.

  • Catch-Up Opportunities: If you missed some or all of the February sales recommendations, watch for a retracement to 480–490 — approximately a 50%-62% recovery from the drop between the February high of 518.75 and today’s low of 442.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION: Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 420 corn puts for approximately 21 cents, plus commission and fees. These options serve as a valuable hedging tool, protecting against further downside price erosion on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest. Combined with the existing call options, this creates a Strangle strategy — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

2026 Crop: 

  • Active Window: The first 2026 upside targets could post at any time — stay tuned for updates!

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures extended their decline as concerns over tariffs and retaliatory actions fueled additional long liquidation. May corn futures, at their session low, traded 76 cents below the most recent high from February 19.

  • May futures are now testing key support at the 450 level — if this level fails to hold, the market could be vulnerable to a further drop toward the August low of 420, as sellers maintain control.

  • U.S. tariffs of 25% for Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods were triggered last night as the potential for a trade war has increased. China countered with a 15% tariff on U.S. agriculture goods, including U.S. corn imports, and a 10% tariff on soybeans. In addition, China will stop receiving soybeans from three U.S. exporters. Mexico will announce a retaliatory plan on Sunday unless an agreement can be reached.

  • The impact of tariffs could curb demand as U.S. goods become more expensive for affected countries. However, other markets not involved in the tariff dispute may benefit from lower U.S. prices, especially with the U.S. dollar trending downward.

  • The market will be watching to see if demand picks up at these lower price levels. Demand has been the driver in the corn market, and old crop corn supplies remain tight until South American harvest later this spring into early summer.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market had been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Late in February, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. Support for corn should hold near the 450 area. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: Two sales recommendations were issued in January at 1047.50 and 1056.00. With those already in place — and the market down in seven of the last eight trading days — today’s guidance remains the same: hold off on any additional sales for now.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to re-own previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: Grain Market Insider issued its first 2025 crop sales recommendation on January 29 at 1063.50. For now, there are no new recommendations — current guidance is to hold steady.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the fifth consecutive day after President Trump announced that tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China would indeed go through. Funds continued to sell across the ag complex today, bringing May soybean futures to close below $10.00. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.

  • In response to Trump’s announcement to double tariffs on Chinese goods to 20%, China stated it would halt soybean imports from three U.S. entities, suspend lumber imports, and impose a 15% tariff on other U.S. agricultural products.

  • The USDA’s January soybean crush report showed 211.1 million bushels crushed, aligning with trade expectations but down 3% from December’s 217.7 million bushels.

  • StoneX is expected to cut its forecast for Brazilian soybean production, citing weather related issues that could hinder output. They maintain that the South American supplies will overwhelm the global market.

Soybeans Fall on Tariff Worries
Front-month soybean futures continued to test the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has limited gains for over 18 months. Improved weather conditions in South America and newly announced tariffs from the Trump Administration at the start of March triggered a sharp decline in prices. Support is expected around 1000, with stronger backing near recent lows of 950. If prices rebound, initial resistance is likely at 1030, with the 200-day moving average serving as a more significant hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat classes posted losses again today in tandem with corn and soybeans. The continued threat of tariffs and a trade war has pushed ag commodities lower so far this week. Most notably, China has pledged to retaliate with tariffs on US goods, including 15% on wheat imports.

  • Winter wheat crop condition updates showed mixed results across key states. Kansas improved by 4% to 54% good to excellent, while Texas declined by 3% to 34%. Colorado saw a notable 10% improvement, whereas South Dakota conditions fell by 9%.

  • According to Rusagrotrans, Russia’s wheat exports in February totaled 1.9 mmt, which is the lowest figure for that month since 2020. Furthermore, they are estimating March exports will be around 1.5-1.7 mmt, which would be the lowest March export figure since 2021.

  • In Australia, ABARES projected a 25/26 wheat harvest of 30.5 mmt, down 10% from the previous season but still 15% above the 10-year average. They also raised their estimate for the 24/25 harvest by 7% compared to their December report.

2024 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: Grain Market Insider made one old crop sales recommendation in February, selling at 606.50 on February 19. Given the severity of the recent selloff, the guidance is to pause any additional sales for now.

2025 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: Given the severity of the recent selloff, the guidance is to continue to sit tight for now.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Head Fake
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range that marked the end of 2024. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rebound.

2024 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: For now, continue to hold steady—Grain Market Insider has no new actionable recommendations today.

2025 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: For now, continue to hold steady—Grain Market Insider has no new actionable recommendations today.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Breaks Lower
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rally.

2024 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: For now, continue to hold steady—Grain Market Insider has no new actionable recommendations today.

2025 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: For now, continue to hold steady—Grain Market Insider has no new actionable recommendations today.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

February Whipsaw
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, sending futures back below key moving averages. Moving forward, the 200-day MA is likely to serve as upside resistance, while previous lows near 580 should provide support.

Other Charts / Weather

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3-03 End of Day: Tariff Concerns Send Grains Lower Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures extended their decline on Monday as ongoing tariff concerns likely fueled continued fund liquidation.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans extended their losing streak to four sessions, breaking below the 100-day moving average. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower, with soybean oil leading the decline.

  • Wheat: Wheat fell to start the week alongside other commodities, weighed down by tariff concerns and lower Matif wheat futures.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the week two GFS precipitation forecast anomaly for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Steps up, Elevator down: The front-month contract climbed from 459.50 on January 2 to a high of 518.75 on February 19 — a steady 32-trading-day ascent. But in just 8 trading days, it tumbled back down to today’s close of 456.25. With such a sharp selloff from the high, the state of the broader uptrend from the August low is now in question.

  • Resistance Concerns: At the start of February, Grain Market Insider flagged the heavy historical resistance clustered between 495–515 and made three sales recommendations on: February 4 at 494.50, February 18 at 512, and February 20 at 512.75.

  • Hold: Given the severity of the recent selloff and the three prior sales recommendations, the guidance remains to hold off on making any additional old crop sales.

2025 Crop: 

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and the recent call option recommendation, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead — especially weather — it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 corn on the upside and $3–$4 corn on the downside.

  • Balanced Approach: Last week’s sales recommendations provide a stronger buffer against downside price scenarios, while the active call options strategy reopens upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market. 

  • Potential Put Options: Tomorrow or Wednesday, Grain Market Insider may recommend adding December ’25 put options. These options can be a valuable hedging tool, helping to protect against further downside price erosion on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest. If put options are recommended, they will combine with the existing call options to form a strategy known as a Strangle — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

2026 Crop: 

  • Active Window: The first 2026 upside targets could post at any time — stay tuned for updates!

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw a fourth day of selling pressure as concerns regarding tariffs and fund liquidation pressured the corn market. The weakness today erased all gains in the corn market for 2025 as the May contract closed at its lowest point since December 26.

  • Managed funds have been aggressively selling their net long positions. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed a reduction of 16,000 net long contracts as of February 25, and estimates suggest an additional 60,000-70,000 contracts have been liquidated since then. The selloff extends beyond grains, affecting the broader agricultural commodity market as funds react to trade uncertainties.

  • The proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports remain scheduled to take effect on March 4. Negotiations between the three countries continue, with the possibility of a resolution. Mexico, the largest buyer of U.S. corn, could retaliate with tariffs or reduce purchases, adding uncertainty to the market.

  • USDA announced a flash export sale of corn this morning. Mexico purchased 114,000MT (4.5 mb) of corn for the current marketing year. This was the first published corn sale since February 14.

  • USDA released weekly export inspections on Monday afternoon. For the week ending February 27, US exporters shipped 1.351 MMT (52.6 mb) of corn. This total was near the top end of market expectations. Mexico was the top importer of U.S. corn during the week. Total shipments have a total of 1.073 bb, up 32% from last year and ahead of the pace to reach the USDA marketing year targets.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market had been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Late in February, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. Trendline support should come in near 470, with stronger support near 450. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 16,079 contracts between February 18 – February 25, bringing their total position to a net long 337,454 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Range Breakout: Since January 13, the front-month continuous contract has traded sideways, mostly between 1066 and 1024. But today’s selloff pushed the May contract well below that 1024 lower boundary, closing at its lowest level since January 9.

  • No New Recommendations: Two sales recommendations were issued back in January at 1047.50 and 1056.00. With those already in place — and the market down in six of the last seven trading days — today’s recommendation is to continue to hold off on making any additional sales.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to reown previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • No New Recommendations: Grain Market Insider issued its first 2025 crop sales recommendation on January 29 at 1063.50. For now, there are no new recommendations — current guidance is to hold steady. 

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the fourth consecutive day in risk-off trade today that saw May futures break significantly below the 100-day moving average. Pressure has come from uncertainty over looming Chinese tariffs and potential retaliation on U.S. agricultural goods. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower, but soybean oil posted the larger losses.

  • President Trump was expected to place 25% tariffs on both Canada and Mexico tomorrow, but he just posted that the tariffs would go into effect on April 2 amid likely ongoing negotiations with the two countries. China, however, is not expected to negotiate and there have been talks that China would place retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods if Trump doubled the Chinese tariffs to 20%.

  • The USDA released the January soybean crush numbers today, which came out to 211.1 million bushels. This was right in line with the average trade estimates but has slowed from December by 3% when crush came in at 217.7 mb.

  • Today’s Export Inspections report saw soybean inspections totaling 25.5 million bushels for the week ending February 27. This was within trade expectations but was below last week’s inspections. Total inspections for 24/25 are now at 1.381 bb, up 10% from the previous year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 8,317 contracts lowering their net long position to 8,209 contracts. They were sellers of both soybean meal and oil by 10,420 and 6,200 contracts respectively.

Soybeans Continue Sideways Grind
Front-month soybean futures continue to flirt with the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A decisive move past this level could trigger bullish momentum, paving the way for a rise toward the key 1100 mark. Should prices dip, reliable support is expected near 1030, with a more stable floor around 1000.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,317 contracts between February 18 – February 25, bringing their total position to a net long 8,209 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar, wheat futures continued to struggle, closing lower alongside most agricultural commodities. A lack of supportive news and a lower close for Matif wheat added pressure. The primary market concern remains the potential for U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada set to take effect tomorrow. Additionally, proposed tariff increases on China have raised fears of retaliatory measures, including reduced U.S. agricultural imports.

  • Weekly wheat inspections of 14.3 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 574 mb, which is up 20% from last year. This is in line with the USDA’s estimated pace; wheat exports for 24/25 are estimated at 850 mb, also up 20% from the year prior.

  • According to India’s meteorological department, much of their nation is expected to see heat waves through May 31. Additionally, it was reported that the month of February was their second warmest since 1901. The threat of above normal temperatures could ultimately reduce their wheat yields.

  • Friday afternoon’s CFTC data indicated that managed funds increased their net short position in Chicago wheat by 10% to 67.6K contracts as of February 25. With the continued downtrend in the market, it is likely that the short position has grown further over the past few sessions.

2024 Crop:

  • 2025 Rally Is Gone: The front-month continuous contract has slipped back into negative territory for the year, closing below the December 31 close of 551.50. Over the last nine trading days, there’s been just one up day.”

  • Hold: Grain Market Insider made one old crop sales recommendation in February, selling at 606.50 on February 19. Given the severity of the recent selloff, the guidance is to pause any additional sales for now.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Head Fake
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range that marked the end of 2024. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rebound.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,037 contracts between February 18 – February 25, bringing their total position to a net short 67,614 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Six Straight Down Days: The front-month contract has closed lower for six consecutive trading days, with just one up day in the last nine. The December 31 close was 559.25, and today’s low saw the May contract trade down to 558.50.

  • No Actionable Recommendations: For now, continue to hold steady — Grain Market Insider has no new actionable recommendations today.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Breaks Lower Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 560, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rally.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 755 contracts between February 18 – February 25, bringing their total position to a net short 21,335 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • 2025 Rally Is Gone: The front-month contract has closed lower for nine straight trading days, slipping into negative territory for the year as May closed below the December 31 mark of 595.75.

  • No Actionable Recommendations: For now, continue to hold steady — Grain Market Insider has no new actionable recommendations today.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

February Whipsaw
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, sending futures back below key moving averages. Moving forward, the 200-day MA is likely to serve as upside resistance, while previous lows near 580 should provide support.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,634 contracts between February 18 – February 25, bringing their total position to a net short 5,209 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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2-28 End of Day: Grain Freefall Continues Friday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures tumbled again to end the week, with corn marking its sixth consecutive lower close.

  • Soybeans: Weak export sales, Brazilian harvest pressure, and declines in corn and wheat prices weighed on soybeans to end the week.

  • Wheat: Improved weather in the Plains and continued weakness in corn prices pressured wheat futures lower on Friday. Wheat has now closed lower in seven of the last eight trading sessions.

  • To see the updated 30-day percent of normal rainfall map for South America as well as the updated U.S. drought monitor, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Wicked Monthly Bar: Six consecutive down days to close the month have dramatically altered the charts. The monthly chart now has a major bearish reversal, with today’s May close sitting 49.25 cents below the February high of 518.75 on the front-month continuous contract.

  • Resistance Concerns: At the start of February, Grain Market Insider flagged the heavy historical resistance clustered between 495–515 and made three sales recommendations on: February 4 at 494.50, February 18 at 512, and February 20 at 512.75.

  • Hold: Given the severity of the recent selloff and the three prior sales recommendations, the guidance remains to hold off on making any additional old crop sales.

2025 Crop: 

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and the recent call option recommendation, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead — especially weather — it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 corn on the upside and $3–$4 corn on the downside.

  • Balanced Approach: Last week’s sales recommendations provide a stronger buffer against downside price scenarios, while the active call options strategy reopens upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market.  

  • Potential Put Options: Next week, as we enter March, Grain Market Insider may recommend adding December ’25 put options. These options can be a valuable hedging tool, helping to protect against downside risk on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest. If put options are recommended, they will combine with the existing call options to form a strategy known as a Strangle — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

2026 Crop: 

  • Active Window: As we enter March next week, the window opens for the first 2026 corn crop targets to emerge at any time. Stay tuned!

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The end of the month of February saw strong selling pressure and long liquidation in the corn market as prices post sharp losses. The May contract lost 35 ½ cents on the week and closed at its lowest levels since January 9. Corn prices have dropped nearly 50 cents off the high from last week.

  • The proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports remain scheduled to take effect on March 4. Negotiations between the three countries continue, with the possibility of a resolution over the weekend. Mexico, the largest buyer of U.S. corn, could retaliate with tariffs or reduce purchases, adding uncertainty to the market.

  • Managed money entered the week with a near-record long position, leaving the market vulnerable to a correction. Seasonal trends and an overbought market triggered this week’s sell-off, leading to a sharp loss of momentum.

  • December 2025 corn futures hit their lowest level since January 17 today, pressured by expectations of larger U.S. corn acres for the 2025-26 marketing year, as outlined in the USDA Outlook Forum.

  • Despite the downturn, corn demand remains strong, with exports and ethanol production providing support. The recent price drop should help sustain demand as U.S. corn remains competitively priced on the global market.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market had been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Last week, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. Trendline support should come in near 470, with stronger support near 450. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Similar Monthly Bar as Corn: While soybeans saw less volatility than corn in February, the outcome was much the same. A monthly bearish reversal bar also formed on the front-month continuous chart, with the May contract closing 54 cents below the 1079.75 high.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to reown previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • No Changes: The current upside target range remains 1090 – 1125 vs November ‘25.  

  • It’s Still Early: Grain Market Insider has issued only one sales recommendation for the 2025 crop so far, but there’s still plenty of time. Soybeans often present later seasonal selling opportunities than corn.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium.  If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring at the earliest.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the third consecutive day despite a friendly acreage number from the USDA Ag Outlook Forum yesterday as poor export sales, Brazilian harvest, and general bearishness weigh on the grain market. Soybean meal was unchanged in the front months but lower in the deferred contracts while soybean oil led the complex lower.

  • On March 4, President Trump is expected to implement 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada after previously delaying them by 30 days. While further negotiations could postpone the tariffs again, the uncertainty is likely to keep the market volatile.

  • For the week, May soybeans lost 31-1/2 cents while November soybeans lost 30-1/4. May soybeans lost $3.70 to $300.20 and May soybean oil lost 3.22 cents to 44.12 cents. For the month, May soybeans lost 31-3/4, May soybean meal lost $9.40, and May soybean oil lost 2.40 cents.

  • Since the bullish January WASDE report that saw soybean yields cut by 1 bpa, soybean futures have lost nearly 75% of their gains. Declining export demand has been a large factor with declining numbers since Brazil has begun exporting their crop at a more competitive rate. Support could come later in the year if dry weather continues into planting coupled with fewer soybean acres planted.

Soybeans Continue Sideways Grind
Front-month soybean futures continue to flirt with the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A decisive move past this level could trigger bullish momentum, paving the way for a rise toward the key 1100 mark. Should prices dip, reliable support is expected near 1030, with a more stable floor around 1000.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • At the risk of sounding like a broken record, wheat closed lower again today. Kansas City futures were the downside leader. Another move higher for the US Dollar and continued tariff talk did not help the situation. Paris milling wheat futures did close slightly positive, which may signal that wheat is nearing a bottom after several sessions of long liquidation.

  • The Russian agriculture ministry decreased their wheat export tax by 21% to 2,178 Rubles to mt, through March 11. However, the Russian wheat export quota that went into effect earlier this month still offers some hope for support in the wheat market.

  • Warmer temperatures are expected across the U.S. Southern Plains early next week, with a storm system likely to bring beneficial rainfall. This could aid winter wheat emergence from dormancy and may have contributed to the weakness in Kansas City wheat futures.

  • According to the European Commission, 24/25 grain production in the EU will fall from 255.8 mmt to 255.2 mmt in their latest estimate. Soft wheat production in particular was revised down 0.1 mmt to 111.8 mmt.

  • French soft wheat conditions as of February 24 declined 1% from the week prior to 73% good to very good. For reference, this is above the 68% rating for the same time a year earlier.

  • Ukraine’s ag ministry has said that total grain exports since the season began on July 1 have reached about 29 mmt. This is 1% below last year, for the same timeframe. Wheat exports, however, were up 3% year over year at 11.9 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Gravestone Doji: Unfortunately, Chicago Wheat posted the worst monthly close among all grain markets. On the front-month continuous chart, the May contract formed a Gravestone Doji, a bearish reversal pattern where the closing price nearly matches the opening price for the month — a signal of potential further weakness.

  • Seven: The May contract closed 66 cents below its monthly high and has now finished lower in seven of the last eight trading sessions.

  • Hold: Grain Market Insider made one old crop sales recommendation in February, selling at 606.50 on February 19. Given the severity of the recent selloff, the guidance is to pause any additional sales for now.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Head Fake
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range that marked the end of 2024. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rebound.

2024 Crop:

  • Positive Month: Kansas City wheat was the only grain to finish February in positive territory on the front-month continuous chart. Though modest, the May contract posted a 6.75-cent gain for the month.

  • Hold: Despite the monthly gain, the May contract has closed lower in seven of the last eight sessions and is now 69.50 cents below its February high. Given this pullback, the guidance remains to pause any additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Breaks Lower Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 560, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rally.

2024 Crop:

  • Bearish Reversal: The front-month contract ended February with a bearish reversal, closing the month down 4.75 cents and 61.75 cents below its monthly high.

  • Hold: With the May contract closing lower for eight consecutive sessions, the guidance remains to pause any additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

February Whipsaw
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, sending futures back below key moving averages. Moving forward, the 200-day MA is likely to serve as upside resistance, while previous lows near 580 should provide support.

Other Charts / Weather

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2-27 End of Day: Grains Close Lower Following Reports of Tariff Implementation

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures closed lower today, driven by weak export sales and the news of impending tariffs from Canada and Mexico, which added further pressure on the market.

  • Soybeans: After starting the day higher, soybeans ultimately closed lower, pressured by declines in the corn and wheat markets.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures experienced significant losses across all three classes, driven by the rise in the US Dollar Index and reports of tariffs set to begin next week.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: Following last week’s two sales recommendations, the advice is to pause making any additional sales for now.

  • Top or Correction? – The May contract has seen a notable pullback, closing lower in six of the last seven sessions and now sitting 38 cents below its recent high. While this could be a healthy correction within an ongoing uptrend, the nature of the recent selloff raises some concerns. Is this just a pause, or a sign of a bigger shift? Stay alert for further signals.

2025 Crop: 

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and the recent call option recommendation, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead — especially weather — it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 corn on the upside and $3–$4 corn on the downside.

  • Balanced Approach: Last week’s sales recommendations provide a stronger buffer against downside price scenarios, while the active call options strategy reopens upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market.  

  • Potential Put Options: Next week, as we enter March, Grain Market Insider may recommend adding December ’25 put options. These options can be a valuable hedging tool, helping to protect against downside risk on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest. If put options are recommended, they will combine with the existing call options to form a strategy known as a Strangle — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales targets are expected to post for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another week.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures faced strong selling pressure on Thursday due to soft export sales, the USDA Outlook Forum, First Notice Day, and the implementation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. March corn futures closed at their lowest level since the January WASDE report.

  • The USDA outlook for gave baseline projections for corn acreage for the 2025-26 marketing year on Thursday morning. The USDA feels that U.S. producer could plant 94 million acres of corn in the next marketing year. This was up 3.4 million for 2024-25. The increased acres could push early carryout projection toward 2.0 billion for the 2025-26 marketing year.

  • Weekly corn export sales were disappointing this week. For the week ending February 20, the USDA reported new sales of 795,000 mt, below the low end of analysts’ expectations. The market may be concerned about slowing demand due to higher corn prices and the approaching harvest of South American corn. Total sales are still running 28% ahead of last year’s pace, slightly down from 29% last week.

  • President Trump announced that the 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, scheduled to take effect on March 4, will proceed as planned. Mexico is the largest buyer of U.S. corn, and the market is concerned about the potential for retaliatory tariffs or a loss of demand. Additionally, President Trump revealed a 10% across-the-board tariff on Chinese goods, also set to be activated on March 4.

  • The Buenos Aires grain exchange saw the Argentina corn crop conditions improve last week and rainfall has turned more beneficial. Corn conditions rose to 21% Good/Excellent, up 3% over last week’s total.  Weather forecasts remain wet for key growing regions, which should help support the crop.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market has been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Last week, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. If this correction continues, support is expected around 475, with stronger support near 450. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: With recent sales recommendations in place, the guidance is to pause additional sales for now, as the May contract has closed lower in four of the last five sessions.

  • Potential Call Strategy: If May soybeans close above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider may recommend a call option strategy to reown previous sales recommendations…stay tuned.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 remain the upside target range vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after starting higher, fading into the close under pressure from corn and wheat, which led the market lower. This morning’s acreage report from the USDA was supportive for soybeans. Both soybean meal and oil also closed lower, with meal posting the larger losses.

  • This morning, the USDA Ag Outlook Forum released its estimates for the 2025 planted acres, and for soybeans, they are estimating 84.0 million acres. This would be down from last year’s 87.1 ma as the USDA assumes that acres will be given to corn. This would put ending stocks at 320 million bushels.

  • Today’s export sales report showed another week of disappointing soybean sales. The USDA reported an increase of 15.1 million bushels of export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.1 mb for 25/26. Last week’s export shipments of 35.7 mb were above the 17.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and Mexico.

  • On March 4, it is expected that President Trump will enact 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada after pushing the tariffs off 30 days ago. While it is possible that further negotiations could delay these tariffs again, the market will likely be volatile until it is confirmed.

Soybeans Continue Sideways Grind
Front-month soybean futures continue to flirt with the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A decisive move past this level could trigger bullish momentum, paving the way for a rise toward the key 1100 mark. Should prices dip, reliable support is expected near 1030, with a more stable floor around 1000.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures took a hit today, posting sharp losses across all three classes. Traders’ focus was on the USDA’s remarks, but a sharp rise in the US Dollar Index, a lower close for Paris milling wheat, and declines in corn and soybeans all weighed negatively on the wheat market. Additionally, reports indicate that tariffs on Mexico and Canada will begin next week, adding further pressure to the grain markets.

  • At the USDA Outlook Forum today, 2025 wheat acreage was estimated at 47 million, an increase of 0.9 million from last year. Additionally, the trendline yield of 50.1 bpa would result in a production estimate of 1.926 bb and ending stocks of 826 mb. While these numbers were largely in line with expectations, the absence of supportive news contributed to the negative price action today.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 9.9 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.2 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 13.9 mb fell under the 20.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 850 mb. Sales commitments at 733 mb for 24/25 are up 10% from last year, which is behind the USDA estimated pace.

  • IKAR has reduced their estimate of Russian wheat exports for 24/25 by 0.5 mmt to 42.5 mmt. Additionally, their range of production estimates declined. In a normal scenario, they project wheat production to decline from 82 to 81 mmt. Under optimal conditions, their estimate has been reduced from 87 to 85 mmt. In a negative scenario, their forecast remains unchanged at 77 mmt.

  • On a bullish note, above-average temperatures are forecasted for India in March, which could potentially reduce wheat yields as the crop matures. After three consecutive years of poor yields, India may need to import wheat if the 2025 harvest is not abundant.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: The May contract has now closed lower in six of the last seven sessions and is down about 60 cents from its recent high already. Current guidance is to hold off on making additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Surges Past Resistance
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average now positions it as a potential support level on any near-term pullbacks. The next upside targets are near 650, with stronger resistance in the 680-700 range.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: The May contract has closed lower in six of the last seven sessions and is down about 57 cents from its recent high. Current guidance is to hold off on making additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Signals Breakout Potential
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could fuel a rally toward the key 700 level. On the downside, the 200-day moving average provides initial support, with stronger backing around 575.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: The May contract has closed lower for seven consecutive sessions and is down about 55 cents from its recent high. Current guidance is to hold off on making additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Confirms Breakout
Spring wheat broke free from its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforces the breakout, with initial support at the 200-day MA and stronger backing near 615 — the top of the previous range. On the upside, 650 is the next key resistance before bulls target the elusive 700 level.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-26 End of Day: Grains Continue Lower Wednesday

ByLisa Heder

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Sellers pressured the corn market again on Wednesday, with weaker weekly ethanol production and expectations for a large 2025 planted acreage estimate weighing on prices.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower on Wednesday as ongoing harvest pressure from Brazil weighed on prices. Both soybean meal and oil were lower today as well.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures extended their decline on Wednesday, with Minneapolis wheat leading the losses.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the surface soil moisture drought indicator for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Last week Grain Market Insider made two sales recommendations for your 2024 corn crop.

  • Hold Recommendation: Following last week’s two sales recommendations, the advice is to pause making any additional sales for now. The May contract is undergoing a correction, having closed lower in five of the last six sessions.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 510 corn calls and December ‘25 550 corn calls in equal quantities, with a total net spend of approximately 43 cents plus commission and fees.  

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and this call option strategy, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead — especially weather — it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 corn on the upside and $3–$4 corn on the downside.

  • Balanced Approach: Last week’s sales recommendations provide a stronger buffer against downside price scenarios, while the active call options strategy reopens upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market.  

  • Looking ahead: Next week, the first week of March, Grain Market Insider will evaluate a potential put option recommendation — details to come.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales targets are expected to post for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another week.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market faced additional selling pressure on Wednesday, as First Notice Day and expectations for a large acreage projection at the USDA Outlook Forum on Thursday triggered further long liquidation.

  • The USDA will release its baseline projection at the Ag Outlook forum on Thursday morning. These are baseline budgetary items but give the market a possible direction for 2025-26 marketing year. Expectations are for the USDA to forecast 93.6 million acres of corn for the 2025-26 marketing year. This would be up 3 million acres for 24-25. If realized, potential carryout projections for the next marketing year could push back towards the 2-billion-bushel level.

  • February 28 is first notice day for March futures, which can trigger additional volatility and selling pressure on the market.  Traders who hold long March futures positions need to roll those positions or risk delivery after that date.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales data on Thursday, with expectations for new sales for the week ending February 20 ranging from 900,000 to 1.65 MMT. The last reported export sale was on February 14, yet overall sales remain ahead of pace for the marketing year.

  • Weekly ethanol production slipped last week to 318 million gallons, down 1 million from last week.  Production was still at the top of expectations. Approximately 108 mb of corn was used last week in ethanol production, which is still trending ahead of the USDA pace for the marketing year.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market has been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Last week, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. If this correction continues, support is expected around 475, with stronger support near 450. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Potential Call Strategy: If May soybeans close above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider may recommend a call option strategy to reown previous sales recommendations…stay tuned.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 remain the upside target range vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower today as pressure from Brazil’s ongoing harvest continues, but May futures found support at the 50-day moving average both yesterday and today. First notice day for March soybeans is on Friday which could be pressuring prices. Both soybean meal and oil were lower today.

  • Estimates for tomorrow’s USDA Outlook Forum see analysts expecting a decline in soybean planted acres in 2025 in favor of corn acres. The average trade estimate sees soybean acres at 84.4 million compared to 87.1 ma last year. These are only rough estimates but would be friendly.

  • Tomorrow’s USDA Outlook Forum will also show estimates for 25/26 US ending stocks that see soybean ending stocks unchanged from last year at 0.380 billion bushels, but the range is anywhere from 0.282 to 0.434 billion bushels.

  • In Argentina, soybeans on the national level are reportedly seeing better than expected crop ratings after a period of drought that lowered crop conditions. There have been three weeks of rain following the drought that have slowed down yield losses in the country’s core growing zone.

Soybeans Continue Sideways Grind
Front-month soybean futures continue to flirt with the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A decisive move past this level could trigger bullish momentum, paving the way for a rise toward the key 1100 mark. Should prices dip, reliable support is expected near 1030, with a more stable floor around 1000.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat continued to fade lower today, with Minneapolis futures leading the way down. A lower close for Matif wheat futures and a higher US Dollar Index offered no support. Without much other fundamental news to drive the market, technical momentum is dragging wheat lower.

  • Reports suggest Ukraine has agreed to allow U.S. access to a portion of its mineral resources, though details remain unclear. Speculation that this could indicate progress toward ending the war with Russia may be pressuring wheat prices, as a resolution could lead to increased wheat exports from the region.

  • A Reuters poll projects U.S. wheat stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year to rise by 35 million bushels to 830 million. Traders will look to the USDA’s estimates at this week’s Outlook Forum, though history suggests the agency tends to underestimate stocks at this stage, having done so in 10 of the past 11 years.

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sale: Last Wednesday Grain Market Insider issued the first sales recommendation for your 2024 SRW wheat crop since May of last year.

  • Hold: The May contract has closed lower in four of the last five sessions and is down about 35 cents from its recent high. Current guidance is to hold off on additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Next Target: If the July contract can maintain its uptrend, the next sales target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Surges Past Resistance
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average now positions it as a potential support level on any near-term pullbacks. The next upside targets are near 650, with stronger resistance in the 680-700 range.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: The May contract has closed lower in five of the last six sessions and is down about 44 cents from its recent high. Current guidance is to hold off on additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: Given the recent sales recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Signals Breakout Potential
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could fuel a rally toward the key 700 level. On the downside, the 200-day moving average provides initial support, with stronger backing around 575.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: The May contract has closed lower for six consecutive sessions and is down about 42 cents from its recent high. Current guidance is to hold off on additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Confirms Breakout
Spring wheat broke free from its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforces the breakout, with initial support at the 200-day MA and stronger backing near 615 — the top of the previous range. On the upside, 650 is the next key resistance before bulls target the elusive 700 level.

Other Charts / Weather

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2-25 End of Day: Soybeans Mixed, Corn and Wheat Lower Tuesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures closed slightly lower today, pressured by improved South American weather forecasts and seasonal market weakness.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed mixed on Tuesday, with front-month contracts higher and deferred months lower. Ongoing harvest pressure from Brazil and improving crop conditions in Argentina continued to weigh on the market.

  • Wheat: A lack of fresh supportive news and ongoing tariff concerns pressured wheat futures on Tuesday, while forecasts for beneficial moisture in the Plains added to the weakness.

  • To see the updated South America 10-day precipitation forecast scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Last week Grain Market Insider made two sales recommendations for your 2024 corn crop.

  • Hold Recommendation: Following last week’s two sales recommendations, the advice is to pause making any additional sales for now. The May contract is undergoing a correction, having closed lower in four of the last five sessions.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 510 corn calls and December ‘25 550 corn calls in equal quantities, with a total net spend of approximately 43 cents plus commission and fees.  

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and this call option strategy, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead — especially weather — it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 corn on the upside and $3–$4 corn on the downside.

  • Balanced Approach: Last week’s sales recommendations provide a stronger buffer against downside price scenarios, while the active call options strategy reopens upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market.  

  • Looking ahead: Next week, Grain Market Insider will evaluate a potential put option recommendation — details to come.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales targets are expected to post for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another week.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished lower for the third consecutive day as prices finished with marginal losses. Improved weather forecasts in Argentina and seasonal weakness pressured the corn market during the session.

  • The last week of February is historically a period of weakness in the corn market. This week is typically a pricing period for March basis contracts as producers need to decide to price bushels or roll contracts to future months.  In addition, first notice day for March futures is on Feb 28, which can trigger additional volatility.

  • South American weather continues to pressure corn prices. Forecasts for Argentina remain favorable, helping to stabilize the corn crop after hot and dry conditions. Models indicate the potential for widespread rainfall in key growing regions.

  • Brazil’s top corn producing state of Mato Grasso, analyst have stated that improved weather has allowed planting of the second crop corn to advance to nearly 70% complete. This has corn planting back on schedule versus the 5-year average after early season delays.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market has been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Last week, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. If this correction continues, support is expected around 475, with stronger support near 450. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Potential Call Strategy: If May soybeans close above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider may recommend a call option strategy to reown previous sales recommendations…stay tuned.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 remain the upside target range vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the three front months closing higher, while the deferred months were lower. Futures came back significantly from this morning’s lows, which saw prices down as much as 10 cents. Prices then bounced off the 100-day moving average, which has been support. Soybean meal was higher, while soybean oil was lower.

  • In Brazil, the 24/25 soybean harvest is reportedly 39% complete as of February 20. This compares to 23% completion a week ago and 40% at the same time last year. The soy output is now estimated at 168.2 mmt compared to 171 mmt last month.

  • In Argentina, soybeans on the national level are reportedly seeing better than expected crop ratings after a period of drought that lowered crop conditions. There have been three weeks of rain following the drought that have slowed down yield losses in the country’s core growing zone.

  • While the 100-day moving average has provided support over the past two months, soybean prices have been under pressure due to declining export demand. Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper than U.S. offers, and renewed tariff concerns following statements from President Trump have added uncertainty to the market.

Soybeans Continue Sideways Grind
Front-month soybean futures continue to flirt with the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A decisive move past this level could trigger bullish momentum, paving the way for a rise toward the key 1100 mark. Should prices dip, reliable support is expected near 1030, with a more stable floor around 1000.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across the board. The grain complex was under pressure today on talk that tariffs on Mexico and Canada will move forward next week. Furthermore, a lack of fresh friendly news and anticipation for rains in the U.S. plains brought weakness into the wheat market.

  • Egypt’s supply minister reported that the country has enough soybean oil and wheat to cover five months of usage. Domestic wheat consumption stands at 750,000 metric tons per month, with total grain storage capacity at 5 million metric tons.

  • SovEcon has decreased their estimate of Russian 24/25 wheat exports by 0.6 mmt to 42.2 mmt. For reference the USDA’s estimate is still sitting at 45.5 mmt.

  • As of February 23, winter wheat ratings in Texas increased by 4% vs last week to 37% good to excellent. However, conditions in Oklahoma declined by 6% from the prior rating to 34% good to excellent. Of note, the last released crop condition data for Oklahoma was on February 2.

  • According to the Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit, European Union winter crops are in mostly fair to good condition. However, January weather in northwest France was unfavorable, which could affect their wheat crop. Additionally, surrounding regions including Ukraine and northern Africa may have seen greater yield losses.

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sale: Last Wednesday Grain Market Insider issued the first sales recommendation for your 2024 SRW wheat crop since May of last year.

  • Hold: The May contract has closed lower in four of the last five sessions and is down about 35 cents from its recent high. Current guidance is to hold off on additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Next Target: If the July contract can maintain its uptrend, the next sales target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Surges Past Resistance
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average now positions it as a potential support level on any near-term pullbacks. The next upside targets are near 650, with stronger resistance in the 680-700 range.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given the recent sale recommendation, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: Given the recent sales recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Signals Breakout Potential
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could fuel a rally toward the key 700 level. On the downside, the 200-day moving average provides initial support, with stronger backing around 575.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Confirms Breakout
Spring wheat broke free from its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforces the breakout, with initial support at the 200-day MA and stronger backing near 615 — the top of the previous range. On the upside, 650 is the next key resistance before bulls target the elusive 700 level.

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Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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2-24 End of Day: Grains Stumble to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: A break of technical support, coupled with weakness in wheat and soybean futures, pressured corn prices to start the week.

  • Soybeans: Ongoing harvest pressure in Brazil and an improved weather outlook for Argentina pushed soybeans lower to start the week.

  • Wheat: Forecasted moisture for both the U.S. Plains and the Black Sea region pressured wheat futures to start the week.

  • To see the updated 6–10-day U.S. temperature and precipitation outlooks as well as the updated 10-day GEFS for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Last week Grain Market Insider made two sales recommendations for your 2024 corn crop.

  • Hold Recommendation: After last week’s two sales recommendations, the advice now is to hold off on making any additional sales for the time being.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 510 corn calls and December ‘25 550 corn calls in equal quantities, with a total net spend of approximately 43 cents plus commission and fees.  

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and this call option strategy, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead — especially weather — it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 corn on the upside and $3–$4 corn on the downside.

  • Balanced Approach: Last week’s sales recommendations provide a stronger buffer against downside price scenarios, while the active call options strategy reopens upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market.  

  • Looking ahead: Next week, Grain Market Insider will evaluate a potential put option recommendation — details to come.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales targets are expected to post for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another week.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Moderately strong selling pressure pushed corn prices lower for the second consecutive session as technical selling triggered long liquidation in the corn market. The weak close technically on Monday will likely leave room for additional selling pressure going into tomorrow’s session.

  • The last week of February is historically a period of weakness in the corn market. This week is typically a pricing period for March basis contracts, and first notice day for March futures, which can trigger selling pressure.

  • The USDA released weekly export inspections on Monday morning. For the week ending Feb 20, U.S. exports shipped 1.134 MMT (44.7 mb). This total was toward the lower end of expectations and down approximately 500,000 MT from last week’s total. Regardless, corn export shipments are still ahead of the USDA target and up 32% YOY.

  • Strong corn demand has been a supportive factor, with export sales and shipments maintaining strength. However, the USDA has not announced a reported corn export sale since February 14, during a period when demand is expected to stay active. If the market perceives a slowdown in demand, prices could be vulnerable to correction.

  • South America weather has added to the selling pressure on corn prices. Argentina weather forecast remain improved, helping to support and stabilize the corn crop after periods of hot and dry weather. Brazil weather has turned more favorable for planting of the key second crop Brazil corn.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market has been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Last week, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. If this correction continues, support is expected around 475, with stronger support near 450. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 21,114 contracts between February 11 – February 18, bringing their total position to a net long 353,533 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Potential Call Strategy: If May soybeans close above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider may recommend a call option strategy to reown previous sales recommendations…stay tuned.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 remain the upside target range vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower along with the rest of the grain complex in a very risk-off trading session. Pressure continues to come from the ongoing Brazilian harvest and slowing US export sales in favor of cheaper Brazilian beans. Both soybean meal and oil were lower, but bean oil led the way down.

  • Today’s export inspections report was within trade estimates at 31.6 million bushels and was also slightly higher than last week. Total inspections in 24/25 are now at 1.355 bb which is up 11% from the previous year. Export sales have slowed noticeably in the past few months with cheaper Brazilian soybeans.

  • In Argentina, soybeans on the national level are reportedly seeing better than expected after a period of drought that lowered crop conditions. There have been 3 weeks of rains following the drought that have slowed down yield losses in the country’s core growing zone.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 11,949 contracts leaving them net long 16,526 contracts. They were buyers of soybean oil by 6,912 contracts leaving them long 53,472 contracts but sellers of soybean meal by 9,761 contracts which increased their net short position to 22,090 contracts.

Soybeans Continue Sideways Grind
Front-month soybean futures continue to flirt with the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A decisive move past this level could trigger bullish momentum, paving the way for a rise toward the key 1100 mark. Should prices dip, reliable support is expected near 1030, with a more stable floor around 1000.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 11,949 contracts between February 11 – February 18, bringing their total position to a netlong16,526 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted double digit losses in each of the three classes, leading the grain complex lower. Early weakness stemmed from Matif wheat futures which gapped lower on their open; front month March managed to close the gap, but a small one remains present for the May contract. Also, the fact that much of the central US is wet and warming up should be favorable for winter wheat as it leaves dormancy, eroding any weather premium still in the market.

  • Weekly wheat inspections totaled 13.8 million bushels, bringing the 2024/25 total to 559 million bushels, up 21% from last year. Inspections remain slightly ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace, with the agency projecting total 2024/25 exports at 850 million bushels, a 20% increase from the prior year.

  • Weekend temperatures in Russia were not cold enough to stress the wheat crop, and upcoming rains are expected. These factors pressured the global wheat market today.

  • On a bullish note, IKAR has said that Russia’s wheat export values ended last week at $251/mt, which is up $4 from the week before. Nevertheless, their wheat exports last week were steady, compared with the prior week at 420,000 mt, according to SovEcon.

  • According to Friday’s CFTC data, managed funds bought back 32,500 wheat contracts combined, among all three futures classes. This brings their net short position to 91,510 contracts, which is the smallest in three months. The Chicago contract accounts for the majority of this short position; it was reduced by about 21,000 contracts to 61,500 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Next Target: If the July contract can maintain its uptrend, the next sales target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Out with Force
Chicago wheat shattered its prolonged sideways grind with a powerful February surge, hitting key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. This decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average sets the stage for the MA to act as firm support on any near-term dips. Next upside targets loom near 650, with stronger resistance waiting in the 680-700 zone.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 21,232 contracts between February 11 – February 18, bringing their total position to a net short 61,577 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given the recent sale recommendation, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: Given the recent sales recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Ignites Rally Potential
Kansas City wheat futures launched into February with bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and challenging multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could spark a run toward the coveted 700 mark. On the flip side, the 200-day MA offers initial support, with a sturdier safety net resting near 575.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 8,158 contracts between February 11 – February 18, bringing their total position to a net short 22,090 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout Confirmed
Spring wheat shook off its doldrums in late January, surging past its prolonged sideways range and flashing bullish signals. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average strengthens the breakout case. Initial support stands at the 200-day MA, with firmer footing near 615 — the top of the old range. On the upside, 650 is the first hurdle to clear before bulls set their sights on the elusive 700 mark.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,069 contracts between February 11 – February 18, bringing their total position to a net short 7,843 contracts.

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