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3-21 End of Day: Grains Mixed: Wheat Gains on Drought Concerns, Corn and Soybeans Slip

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn closed lower, erasing yesterday’s gains as a stronger U.S. dollar and tariff concerns from Canada and Mexico pressured the market.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower amid weak export demand and pressure from Brazil’s record harvest.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures ended mostly higher as drought expansion across the U.S. provided support.

  • To see the updated monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks from the CPC as well as the 14-day precipitation anomaly for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of your 2026 corn crop. Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn closed lower, erasing most of yesterday’s gains, as a stronger U.S. dollar and lingering tariff concerns from Canada and Mexico pressured the market. May 2025 futures dipped back below the 100-day moving average but managed to retain modest gains for the week.

  • Traders are closely awaiting the release of the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, scheduled for March 31. Expectations are for a large increase in U.S. corn acres compared to last year.

  • The BAGE held their Argentine production estimates unchanged at 49 mmt vs the USDA’s estimate of 50 mmt as harvest progress has nearly reached 14%.

  • Tariff tensions are set to escalate next week as the April 2 deadline nears and negotiations gain momentum. Analysts expect a swift resolution, given Canada and Mexico’s reliance on U.S. trade. Meanwhile, Northern Mexico’s persistent drought underscores the region’s continued need for U.S. corn imports.

  • Brazil is expected to receive between ¾ and 2 ½ inches of rain through next Thursday. While this rainfall will be beneficial for the development of other crops, it may delay ongoing harvest for both soybeans and the first corn crop. In contrast, Argentina is expected to experience a few more days of dry weather, allowing the harvest to continue without disruption.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for at least another couple months.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower on little fresh news apart from poor export demand and an ongoing record large Brazilian harvest. Bullish news could come next week if soybean acres are significantly reduced in the Planting Intentions report. Soybean meal ended the day higher while soybean oil was lower.

  • A grain exchange in Argentina has cut their estimate for soybean production in the country by 1 million tons as a result of drought conditions. Estimates are now at 48.6 mmt which is slightly lower than the USDA’s most recent estimate.

  • For the week, May soybeans lost 6-1/4 cents to $10.09-3/4, while November soybeans lost 10-1/4 cents at $10.07-3/4. May soybean meal was down $5.60 at $300.30 and May soybean oil gained 0.42 cents at 42.01.

  • Abiove has estimated the Brazilian soybean crop for 2025 0.5% lower at 170.9 mmt compared to 171.7 mmt the previous month, but this output would still be up 11% from last year. This estimate is near the USDA’s 169.0 mmt.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed mostly higher, despite the firming U.S. dollar and a lower close for Paris milling wheat futures. Increased drought readings for much of U.S. Midwest and Plains states are helping to support the market.

  • The International Grains Council raised its 2025/26 global grain stockpile estimate to 578 mmt, up 1 mmt year-over-year. However, wheat stocks are expected to decline from 265 mmt to 259 mmt.

  • The extended forecast for April calls for widespread warm and dry conditions. This could affect the development of the U.S. winter wheat crop due to a lack of soil moisture. However, this should also mitigate concerns over frost or freeze damage.

  • The Ukrainian first deputy farm minister has said that their winter crops are in satisfactory condition. Furthermore, weather swings in February and so far in March were not enough to cause any significant crop damage.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 701 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 714 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 704 hits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 717 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 677 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 625 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop following the recent hit of the 647.75 target. 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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3-20 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Close Higher Following Export Report, While Wheat Remains Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn closed higher today, supported by another week of strong export sales.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans began the day weaker, pressured by disappointing export sales, but gained strength as the day progressed, supported by the corn market, and ultimately closed higher.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes today, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and a general lack of significant market-moving news.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell the first portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Details: Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Buying strength continued in the front end of the corn market, with another week of strong export sales providing support for the old corn crop. Deferred prices also moved slightly higher, in line with the strength in the front-end markets.

  • USDA released weekly export sales for the week ending March 13. U.S. exporters reported new sales of 1.497 MMT (58.9 MB) for the current marketing year. Corn sales are running 25% higher year over year. Japan was the largest buyer of U.S. corn for that week.

  • In South American weather, rainfall looks promising in central Brazil for the next seven days. The Provence of Parana may be left out of that forecast, which is responsible for 15% of the safrinha corn production. Argentina weather has been dry enough to expand harvest with the harvest now close to 12% done.

  • Rumors that Brazil was purchasing U.S. corn on the export market were in front of the market this morning. Brazil has a tight domestic corn supply and typically does step out to import some bushels every year. Annually, Brazil imports between 1.5-3.0 MMT of corn.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for at least another couple months.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher and were bull spread with the front months posting larger gains than new crop contracts. Export sales were disappointing this morning which brought early weakness, but prices moved higher into the close along with corn. Soybean meal was lower while soybean oil followed crude oil higher.

  • Today’s Export Sales report was below trade estimates at 13.0 million bushels for 24/25 and 100 mt for 25/26. Primary destinations were to China, Taiwan, and Saudi Arabia. Last week’s export shipments of 21.8 mb were above the 14.3 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates of 1.825 bb for 24/25.

  • Abiove has estimated the Brazilian soybean crop for 2025 0.5% lower at 170.9 mmt compared to 171.7 mmt the previous month, but this output would still be up 11% from last year. This estimate is near the USDA’s 169.0 mmt.

  • Brazilian soybean basis has improved recently due to high Chinese demand despite the record large crop being harvested, and Chinese February soybean imports increased to 13.6 mmt which is up 4.4% from a year ago. Brazilian exports for March are expected to reach 15.6 mmt compared to 13.5 mmt a year ago.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted modest losses in each of the three classes. A stronger U.S. dollar, lower close for Matif wheat, and a lack of fresh friendly news all contributed to today’s weakness.

  • The USDA reported a decrease of 9.1 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 but an increase of 18.0 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaling 17.3 mb fell below the 21.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 835 mb. Total sales commitments have reached 766 mb for 24/25, which is up 13% from last year.

  • According to the USDA, as of March 18 an estimated 34% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions. This is a jump up from the 27% reading last week. The spring wheat area in drought held steady with last week; however, it was at an estimated 39%.

  • The International Grains Council has estimated world 25/26 wheat production at 807 mmt, which would be up 1% from a year ago.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 701 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 714 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 704 hits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 717 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 677 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 625 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop following the recent hit of the 647.75 target. 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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3-19 End of Day: Mixed Close for Corn, Soybeans Lower, Wheat Drops on Wetter Outlook

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures ended mixed again on Wednesday, but unlike yesterday, old crop contracts closed higher while new crop contracts finished lower.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day slightly lower, similar to yesterday’s movement. Soybean oil and meal futures also closed lower, with soybean meal posting the larger losses.

  • Wheat: Wetter conditions forecasted for the Plains led to a lower close across the board for wheat futures on Wednesday, with KC futures taking the brunt of the decline.

  • To see the updated 30-day percent of normal precipitation map and the 8–14-day precipitation outlook for South America and the U.S., scroll down to the charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell the first portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Details: Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures traded mixed on Wednesday, with light buying strength returning to old crop contracts, while new crop prices remained under pressure.

  • Traders are positioning ahead of the USDA Prospective Planting and Grain Stocks report, which could shape market direction. Analysts expect strong demand to be reflected but also anticipate a significant increase in corn acreage compared to last year.

  • Weekly ethanol production rebounded over last week. Production jumped to 325 million barrels/day (mbpd) versus 312 mbpd last week, up 5.6% over last year. An estimated 111 mb of corn was used in the production of ethanol last week. This total is still trending ahead of USDA targets for the marketing year.

  • USDA export sales data will be released Thursday, with new corn sales for the week ending March 13 projected between 800,000 MT and 1.7 MMT. Last week’s total was 967,000 MT.

  • With planting mostly complete on the key second crop Brazil corn, weather becomes the focus. Early-season conditions are favorable, with expected rainfall supporting crop development.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for at least another couple months.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were lower to end the day but have maintained their rangebound trade. Weather in Brazil has been relatively good for the completion of harvest, and the country has been exporting large amounts of soybeans putting pressure on U.S. demand. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower with meal posting the larger losses.

  • Brazilian soybean basis has improved recently due to high Chinese demand despite the record large crop being harvested, and Chinese February soybean imports increased to 13.6 mmt which is up 4.4% from a year ago. Brazilian exports for March are expected to reach 15.6 mmt compared to 13.5 mmt a year ago.

  • It is expected that the EPA will propose U.S. biofuel blending targets for 2026 in April or May according to Darling Ingredients. The industry is asking for a 2 billion gallon increase to biomass-based diesel volumes from existing blending targets.

  • Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 70% as of March 13, the fastest pace on record per AgRural. The southeast and northern regions expect above-average rainfall in the next 6-10 days.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Improved precipitation chances from a Midwestern storm pressured the wheat market Wednesday, leading to profit-taking from the recent rally. HRW futures saw the most selling pressure.

  • Rain and snowfall forecasts for parts of Kansas are expected to provide much-needed moisture to winter wheat crops.

  • Technically, wheat futures followed through from the soft close on Tuesday. Wheat futures are testing support levels with today’s close. These levels need to hold, or the wheat market is at risk of breaking the most recent trend higher, likely leading to further downside correction.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales for wheat on Thursday morning. For the week ending March 13, reported sales are expected to range from 300,000-700,000 MT of new sales. Last week US exporters sold 783,416 MT, which was above trade expectations.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 701 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 714 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 704 hits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 717 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 677 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 625 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop following the recent hit of the 647.75 target. 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Above: From Barchat – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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3-18 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Mixed, Soybeans Lower in Quiet Tuesday Trade

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures ended mixed Tuesday as selling pressure weighed on front-end contracts, while new crop contracts held onto fractional gains.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed slightly lower, staying rangebound, with soybean meal leading the decline while soybean oil posted gains.

  • Wheat: Wheat closed mixed, fading from early session strength, with Kansas City futures leading gains.

  • To see the updated 14-day GEFS precipitation forecast for South America and the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell the first portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Details: Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw selling pressure in the front end of the market to finish with mixed trade on the close Tuesday. A calmer wheat market allowed sellers to continue to liquidate long positions at the front end of the market.

  • Technically, the May futures contract tested the 200-day moving average support level during the session. Failure of this point to hold would likely trigger additional long liquidation as speculators have been reducing their length in the market given market volatility.

  • Traders are positioning ahead of the USDA Prospective Planting and Grain Stocks Report at month-end, which could set the tone for old and new crop markets.

  • With the recent drop in crude oil prices, ethanol margins have tightened. Weekly ethanol production reports have remained supportive of the market, but demand could slow if margin remain tight.  Current usage of corn for ethanol production is running ahead of the pace to reach USDA market year targets.

Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low that can be built off as we head towards spring. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for at least another couple months.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower with futures largely rangebound since the beginning of the month. Slow export demand and the Brazilian harvest which is nearly completed have kept soybeans from rallying significantly, but they remain off contract lows. Soybean meal led soybeans lower today while soybean oil was higher.

  • Yesterday’s NOPA crush report saw soybean crush for February at 177.87 million bushels which was well below the average trade guess of 188.0 mb. This compares to 200.38 mb in the month of January and was also down from last year at this time. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.503 billion pounds, which was above trade estimates and the prior month.

  • Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 70% as of March 13, the fastest pace on record per AgRural. The southeast and northern regions expect above-average rainfall in the next 6-10 days.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw 647k tons of soybeans inspected for export which compared to 854k the previous week and 700k tons a year ago. Soybean export demand in the future may weaken with the continuation of US tariffs on China.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As March began, improved weather and harvest pressure in South America caused a sharp price decline. Support held around the 1000 level, with stronger support near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a critical barrier.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed in mixed fashion today, fading off of earlier strength; Kansas City futures remained the upside leader. Paris milling wheat also had a mixed close, offering no direction for the US market. Relative weakness into the close might be explained by a storm system expected to bring precipitation to much of the central plains and Midwest over the next 48 hours.

  • Select states released updated winter wheat crop ratings – Texas and Oklahoma conditions held steady at 28% and 46% good to excellent, respectively. However, ratings in Kansas declined 4% to 48% GTE, while Colorado fell 7% to 60% GTE.

  • President Trump spoke with Russian President Putin for over an hour regarding the Ukraine war, with reports indicating a potential 30-day ceasefire focused on energy infrastructure.

  • As of March 16, European Union soft wheat exports have reached 14.92 mmt since the export season began in July. This total is down 35% from the same time period last year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 701 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 714 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 704 hits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat’s Volatile Breakout and Retreat
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, surging to key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, the late February peak proved to be a turning point, as futures retreated sharply, slipping back into the previous trading range that defined the end of 2024. Support has so far held near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average looms as a key resistance level near 570. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day could signal a potential trend reversal and renewed upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 717 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 677 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Faces Key Technical Test
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, the rally lost steam in late February, leading to a sharp retreat back into the previous trading range. Support has held firm near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average is expected to serve as resistance on any attempted rebound. A decisive close above key resistance will be crucial for reigniting the uptrend as the market heads into spring.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 625 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop. 

  • Target Hit: The September contract has rebounded over 40 cents from the current March low, hitting the 647.75 sales target today. This marks the fourth sales recommendation for the 2025 Hard Red Spring wheat crop, with an average price of 652.

  • Plan A: No active targets. 647.75 target hit today – 3/18/25.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, sparking bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, dragging futures back below key moving averages. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as resistance on any rebound, while previous lows near 580 should provide a key support level. A sustained move above resistance would be needed to reignite the uptrend.

Other Charts / Weather

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3-17 End of Day: Weather Concerns Drive Wheat Higher Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures posted marginal gains to start the week, supported by a strong wheat market and robust export inspections.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended mixed, with front months lower and deferred contracts higher in quiet trade.

  • Wheat: Wheat posted double-digit gains, led by Kansas City futures, as weather concerns drive more premium into the market.

  • To see the updated 10-day GEFS precipitation forecast for South America as well as the 7-day precipitation forecast for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell the first portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Details: Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures posted marginal gains to start the week, supported by a strong wheat market, a weaker U.S. dollar, and robust export inspections.

  • Weekly corn export inspections totaled 65.3 MB for the week ending March 13, keeping total inspections 33% ahead of last year, while the USDA projects only a 7% increase. Analysts expect USDA export demand adjustments later in the marketing year.

  • May corn futures are struggling to break resistance at the 100-day moving average, potentially keeping speculators selling into rallies.

  • Brazil’s key second-crop corn planting is nearly complete, but a drier forecast in Mato Grosso could impact crop development.

  • U.S. corn will likely stay competitive in the global export market until the June time window as bids are limited or at a higher value for global competitors until then. U.S. export sales and shipments are running well ahead of the pace needed to reach export targets.

Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low that can be built off as we head towards spring. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 73,211 contracts between March 4 – March 11, bringing their total position to a net long 146,541 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for at least another couple months.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the two front months lower and deferred contracts higher in quiet trade. Prices faded from overnight highs with little bullish fundamental news to drive the complex. Soybean meal ended the day slightly lower while soybean oil was higher.

  • Today’s NOPA crush report saw soybean crush for February at 177.87 million bushels which was well below the average trade guess of 188.0 mb. This compares to 200.38 mb in the month of January and was also down from last year at this time. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.503 billion pounds, which was above trade estimates and the prior month.

  • In Brazil, 97.3% of Mato Grosso’s soybean crop was harvested as of last Friday, with dry weather in the 10-day forecast. Production may fall slightly below initial estimates.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 19,943 contracts of soybeans, which left them with a net short position of 15,544 contracts. They were sellers of soybean oil by 23,521 contracts and buyers of meal by 13,317 contracts.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As March began, improved weather and harvest pressure in South America caused a sharp price decline. Support held around the 1000 level, with stronger support near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a critical barrier.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 19,943 contracts between March 4 – March 11, bringing their total position to a net short 1,5,544 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat made double-digit gains led by Kansas City futures, as more weather premium is being factored in. Warmth, dryness, and strong winds in the U.S. southern Plains remain a key focus, with 27% of U.S. winter wheat in drought—double last year’s level. A weaker U.S. dollar and higher Matif wheat prices also provided support.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 18.1 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 601 mb, which is up 18% from last year. Inspections are steady with the USDA’s estimated pace; they are estimating 24/25 wheat exports at 835 mb, up 18% from the year prior.

  • President Trump has indicated that he will speak with Putin tomorrow. This discussion will reportedly center around ending the Ukraine war.

  • According to SovEcon, the Russian government wants to keep their domestic flour and bread prices low – therefore they may continue to cut wheat exports. In theory this could mean more demand for U.S. wheat, which would be bullish.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 701 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 714 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 704 hits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat’s Volatile Breakout and Retreat
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, surging to key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, the late February peak proved to be a turning point, as futures retreated sharply, slipping back into the previous trading range that defined the end of 2024. Support has so far held near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average looms as a key resistance level near 570. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day could signal a potential trend reversal and renewed upside momentum.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,987 contracts between March 4 – March 11, bringing their total position to a net short 77,412 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 717 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 677 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Faces Key Technical Test
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, the rally lost steam in late February, leading to a sharp retreat back into the previous trading range. Support has held firm near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average is expected to serve as resistance on any attempted rebound. A decisive close above key resistance will be crucial for reigniting the uptrend as the market heads into spring.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 9,440 contracts between March 4 – March 11, bringing their total position to a net short 48,722 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 625 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 647.75 vs September to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 647.75 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, sparking bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, dragging futures back below key moving averages. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as resistance on any rebound, while previous lows near 580 should provide a key support level. A sustained move above resistance would be needed to reignite the uptrend.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,450 contracts between March 4 – March 11, bringing their total position to a net short 25,642 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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3-14 End of Day: Corn and Wheat End the Week Lower, While Soybeans Post Gains

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Feeding off the weakness in the wheat market, corn futures ultimately ended the trading day lower, despite the export sale announcement earlier this morning.

  • Soybeans: Despite the weakness in the corn and wheat markets, soybeans managed to end the week on a positive note, closing higher on the day, supported by lower soybean production estimates in Argentina.

  • Wheat: Wheat ended the week with losses across the board, as weather concerns in the U.S. Southern Plains and the Black Sea region persist.

  • To see the updated 30-day percent of normal rainfall map for South America as well as the updated U.S. drought monitor, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell the first portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Details: Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished lower on the day, posting moderate losses in the front-month contracts. Despite an announced export sale in the morning, weakness in wheat and the expiration of the March futures limited gains to end the week. For the week, May corn futures closed 10 ¾ cents lower, nearly 20 cents off the highs of the week.

  • The March corn futures finished its trading life on Friday, settling at 445 ½. The softer trade on Friday limited gains in the front month contacts. May futures closed the day with a 14-cent premium to the final March trade.

  • The USDA announced a corn export sale on Friday morning.  For the current marketing, US exporters sold 218,604 MT (8.6 MB) to an unknown destination. This was the third report corn export sale for the month of March.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina posted their projection for the upcoming corn harvest on Friday morning.  The exchange lowered estimated production by 8 MMt to 44.5 MMT. This was a significant drop compared to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cutting the crop by only 1MMT on Thursday.

  • The weather forecast in Brazil is mostly favorable for the development of their key 2nd corn crop. Despite that, dry conditions in the east need to be monitored. The market is concerned about a possible spread into the center-south corn producing regions.

Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low that can be built off as we head towards spring. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for at least another couple months.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after a quiet trading session that saw futures mostly unchanged until the latter part of the day. Lowered soybean production estimates from Argentina earlier this week have been supportive. Soybean meal closed lower, while soybean oil led the complex higher, buoyed by rising crude oil prices.

  • This morning, private exporters reported to the USDA an export sale of 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. While soybean export demand has been poor due to a large Brazilian harvest, yesterday’s export sales were above the average trade estimate for soybeans.

  • In Argentina, the Rosario Grain Exchange has lowered its estimate for soybean production to 46.1 mmt which is down 1 mmt from February. This comes after Brazil’s CONAB brought its estimate for production below the USDA’s guess. Also in Brazil, weather is set to be dry throughout the southern regions of the country during pod fill which could also be supportive.

  • For the week, May soybeans lost 9 cents to $10.16 while November soybeans lost 7-1/2 cents to $10.18. The lack of carry in the market is interesting given anticipation of fewer new crop bean acres to be planted this year. May soybean meal gained $1.50 to $305.90 and May soybean oil lost 1.83 cents to 41.59 cents.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As March began, improved weather and harvest pressure in South America caused a sharp price decline. Support held around the 1000 level, with stronger support near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a critical barrier.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with small to moderate losses across the board. May Paris milling wheat had gapped higher yesterday but reversed to fill that gap today, ultimately closing lower. Today’s weakness comes despite ongoing concerns about dryness in the U.S. Southern Plains and the Black Sea region.

  • According to Ukraine’s agriculture ministry, spring wheat plantings are estimated at 5.7 million hectares, which is in line with year ago levels.

  • FranceAgriMer has reported their soft wheat crop condition at 74% good to excellent – this is unchanged from the week prior. However, durum wheat conditions fell 1% to 81% good to excellent.

  • The U.S. Northern Plains are forecast to receive storms bringing a mix of scattered showers and snow. The addition of heavy winds could lead to blizzard conditions, but with the current lack of soil moisture, this precipitation may be welcomed by producers as they approach spring wheat planting.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 701 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 714 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 704 hits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat’s Volatile Breakout and Retreat
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, surging to key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, the late February peak proved to be a turning point, as futures retreated sharply, slipping back into the previous trading range that defined the end of 2024. Support has so far held near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average looms as a key resistance level near 570. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day could signal a potential trend reversal and renewed upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 717 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 677 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Faces Key Technical Test
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, the rally lost steam in late February, leading to a sharp retreat back into the previous trading range. Support has held firm near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average is expected to serve as resistance on any attempted rebound. A decisive close above key resistance will be crucial for reigniting the uptrend as the market heads into spring.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 625 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 647.75 vs September to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 647.75 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, sparking bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, dragging futures back below key moving averages. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as resistance on any rebound, while previous lows near 580 should provide a key support level. A sustained move above resistance would be needed to reignite the uptrend.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: 10-Day Average Precipitation Anomalies of South America courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Unified Gauge 30-Day Percent of Normal Rainfall courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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3-13 End of Day: Grains Close Higher Following Weekly Export Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: The corn market found support today from the strong buying activity in the soybean and wheat markets, ultimately finishing the day with gains.

  • Soybeans: The soybean market closed higher, driven by gains in soybean meal, as strikes at Argentine soy crushing plants continue to impact the market, further supported by stronger-than-expected export sales.

  • Wheat: Wheat closed the trading day in the green, with ongoing weather concerns in the U.S. Southern Plains providing continued support for prices.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION – Sell the first portion of your 2026 corn crop today.

  • Close: The December ‘26 contract closed at 455.25 today.

  • Details: Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong buying in the wheat and soybean markets, coupled with a firm export tone, helped support corn futures during Thursday’s session. Overall, prices consolidated, trading within the range established during Wednesday’s price action.

  • The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning.  For the week ending March 6, US exporter posted new sales of 967,300 MT (38.1 mb) for the current marketing year.  This was up 6% from last week, but down 19% from the prior 4-week average. Mexico was the top buyer of US corn for that week.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange cut its Argentine corn crop estimates to 44.4 MMT, down 1.5 MMT due to impacts from heat and dryness seen during the early part of the growing season.

  • Brazil’s ag agency CNAB raised their corn production forecasts slightly higher in their March production report on Thursday.  The crop was raised to 122.76 MMT, up from 122.02 MMT in February.  Within in the report, CONAB did slightly lower the exportable second crop corn slightly, as the production increase was from Brazil’s first corn crop. Project corn ending stocks were 5.54 MMT for the 2024-25 marketing year, up 2.49 MMT over last year.

Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low that can be built off as we head towards spring. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were higher to end the day giving back nearly all of yesterday’s losses. Soybean meal led the complex higher following strikes at Argentinian soy crushing plants. Export sales were better than expected, which was supportive, but soybean oil followed crude oil lower.

  • Today’s export sales were good for soybeans with sales coming in above expectations at 967,300 mt of old crop and 13,400 mt of new. This put sales ahead of last year at this time by 14%. Soybean oil sales were withing trade expectations while soybean meal sales were below expectations.

  • Arguably the biggest bullish news today was the start of worker strikes at Argentine soy crushing plants. The oilseed workers’ union initiated the strike over layoffs and in protest against the actions of national security forces. This news sparked a strong rally in soybean meal, as Argentina is the world’s top exporter of soybean meal.

  • In South America, Argentina is forecast to receive late rains that should be beneficial to both the soybean and corn crops. The Rosario Grain Exchange has forecasted soybean production at 46.5 mmt, along the same lines as the USDA. Early heat and drought damaged the crop.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As March began, improved weather and harvest pressure in South America caused a sharp price decline. Support held around the 1000 level, with stronger support near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a critical barrier.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed in the green, led by Kansas City futures, with continued concerns over warm temperatures and high winds in the U.S. Southern Plains for the remainder of the week providing support to HRW prices.

  • Weekly wheat export sales totaled 28.8 mb for 24/25 along with 3.0 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 8.2 mb were under the 20.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 835 mb. Total wheat sales commitments have reached 775 mb, up 14% from last year.

  • According to the USDA, as of March 11, an estimated 27% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, marking a 3% increase from the previous week. Spring wheat areas in drought remained steady at 39%, although this is 9% higher compared to the same time last year.

  • Although a ceasefire agreement has been drafted between the U.S. and Ukraine, Russia has yet to concur. News outlets this afternoon report that Putin has stated he agrees ‘in principle’ to a 30-day ceasefire, though the specifics still need to be worked out.

  • IKAR has issued a new estimate of Russian wheat exports, lowering it again, this time by 1.5 mmt to 41 mmt. The USDA is sitting at a 45 mmt estimate. In related news, Ukrainian wheat 24/25 wheat exports have hit 12.4 mmt since the season began in July – this is up 3% year over year.

  • According to FranceAgriMer, the expected French 24/25 soft wheat exports are now estimated at 9.58 mmt. This is down 1.7% from the February guess of 9.74 mmt and is said to be due to a 6% decline in non-EU sales. Additionally, the stockpiles estimate increased from 2.81 to 2.91 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 701 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 714 level.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 704 level.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat’s Volatile Breakout and Retreat
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, surging to key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, the late February peak proved to be a turning point, as futures retreated sharply, slipping back into the previous trading range that defined the end of 2024. Support has so far held near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average looms as a key resistance level near 570. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day could signal a potential trend reversal and renewed upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 717 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 677 level.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Faces Key Technical Test
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, the rally lost steam in late February, leading to a sharp retreat back into the previous trading range. Support has held firm near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average is expected to serve as resistance on any attempted rebound. A decisive close above key resistance will be crucial for reigniting the uptrend as the market heads into spring.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 625 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 647.75 vs September to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 647.75 level.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, sparking bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, dragging futures back below key moving averages. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as resistance on any rebound, while previous lows near 580 should provide a key support level. A sustained move above resistance would be needed to reignite the uptrend.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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3-12 End of Day: Grains Pressured Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: The corn market faced technical selling pressure following Tuesday’s WASDE report, with concerns over trade policy and an unchanged balance sheet weighing on prices.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans extended their losing streak to a fourth consecutive session as ongoing tariff threats created an unpredictable trade environment, prompting a risk-off tone across the grain complex.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures finished mixed as markets reacted to geopolitical tensions following an overnight Russian missile strike on Ukraine’s port of Odessa, where workers were loading a wheat shipment.

  • To see the updated 7-day precipitation outlook for the U.S. and the 7-day precipitation forecast for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • No Official Targets: There have been three official sales recommendations year-to-date, and currently there’s no active target for a fourth sale.

    • Catch-Up Zone: If you haven’t made three sales for 2025 yet, the suggested zone is 480 vs. May to catch up. At today’s high, May got within about three cents of the lower end of this range.

    • Hold Steady: If you’ve followed all three prior recommendations for 2025, Grain Market Insider advises to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop: 

  • No Official Targets: There have also been three official sales recommendations year-to-date for the 2025 new crop corn, and currently there’s no active target for a fourth sale.

    • Catch-Up Zone: If you haven’t made three sales since January 1 yet, the suggested zone is 462 vs. December to catch up. At today’s high December got within about four cents of the lower end of this range.

    • Hold Steady: If you’ve followed all three prior sales recommendations since January 1, Grain Market Insider still advises you to sit tight for now.  

2026 Crop: 

  • First Sales Rec: The first sales recommendation for the 2026 corn crop could be issued tomorrow. Seasonally, now is the time to consider locking in the first early sales. More details to come.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market faced technical selling pressure following Tuesday’s WASDE report, with concerns over trade policy and an unchanged balance sheet weighing on prices. This sparked additional long liquidation as traders reassessed positions.

  • Weekly ethanol production declined to 312 million gallons, down 9 million gallons from the previous week but still 3.7% higher than a year ago. Corn usage for ethanol totaled 106 mb, continuing to outpace the USDA’s target for the marketing year.

  • The recent weakness in crude oil prices has squeezed margins for ethanol producers. Production has remained overall strong, but ethanol stocks are high at 27.4 million barrels. The combination of tighter margins and trade concerns with Canada for ethanol exports could limit production in weeks ahead as a possible trend.

  • Canada farms intend to plant more corn and wheat acres in 2025 according to released Stats Canada estimates this morning. While the corn for grain acre number is small, it is intended to be 3.2% higher than last year.  Market analyst could use this as an estimate to the possible trend for U.S. producers with the USDA Prospective Plantings report to be released at the end of the month.

  • Weather outlook for Brazil is mostly favorable for the second crop corn. The central and southern regions of Brazil will see friendly forecast with a good balance of rain and sunshine. The eastern portions of Brazil are reflecting concerns with an overall drier forecast trend.

Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low that can be built off as we head towards spring. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Catch-up Zone: There have been three official sales recs on 2024 soybeans year-to-date.
    • If you haven’t made three sales since January 1, target 1056 to catch up.

    • If you’re in line with the three sales recommendations, the advice is still to sit tight for now.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to re-own previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • Catch-up Zone: There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans year-to-date.
    • If you haven’t made a sale since January 1, target 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If you’re in line with the one sales recommendation, the advice is still to sit tight for now.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium.  If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans extended their losing streak to a fourth consecutive session as ongoing tariff threats created an unpredictable trade environment, prompting a risk-off tone across the grain complex. Soybean meal and oil also finished lower, despite support from rising crude oil prices.

  • A Bloomberg survey is estimating Brazilian soybean production at 168.7 mmt for 24/25 which is just a hair below the USDA’s estimate. This would be 2.7 mmt higher than the agency’s last estimate in February.

  • There may be some pressure on the soybean market as a result of precipitation in the forecast across areas of the country with poor soil moisture levels. The country has been very dry overall, and many traders have been looking for an upcoming rally on dry weather into planting season.

  • Yesterday’s WASDE report saw US ending stocks untouched at 380 mb. There was a slight decline in world ending stocks which was the bullish part of the report, and no changes to Brazilian or Argentinian soybean production which are at 169 mmt and 49.0 mmt respectively.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As March began, improved weather and harvest pressure in South America caused a sharp price decline. Support held around the 1000 level, with stronger support near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a critical barrier.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat markets were mixed on the day, with Kansas City futures managing to eke out a small gain while Chicago and Minneapolis wheat settled slightly lower. A stronger U.S. dollar added pressure following Tuesday’s somewhat bearish WASDE report, though gains in Matif wheat and concerns over warmth and dryness in the U.S. Southern Plains helped prop up KC wheat.

  • Geopolitical tensions remained in focus after a Russian missile strike on Ukraine’s port of Odessa reportedly killed four Syrian workers who were loading a wheat shipment. While the U.S. and Ukraine have negotiated a temporary ceasefire, Russia has yet to agree to the deal.

  • The Russian ag ministry has issued an order to distribute more of the remaining 2025 wheat export quota. The 2025 quota totals 10.6 mmt between February 15 and June 30, but 8.6 mmt was already distributed in February.

  • Today’s CPI data was not as bad as feared, with an increase of 0.2% in February, bringing annual inflation to 2.8%. This was 0.1% below estimates and the level from last month. This may indicate that inflation is easing, which could have broader impacts on the economy, financial markets, and the US Dollar – all of which could affect wheat prices.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 701 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 714 level.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 704 level.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat’s Volatile Breakout and Retreat
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, surging to key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, the late February peak proved to be a turning point, as futures retreated sharply, slipping back into the previous trading range that defined the end of 2024. Support has so far held near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average looms as a key resistance level near 570. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day could signal a potential trend reversal and renewed upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 717 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 677 level.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Faces Key Technical Test
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, the rally lost steam in late February, leading to a sharp retreat back into the previous trading range. Support has held firm near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average is expected to serve as resistance on any attempted rebound. A decisive close above key resistance will be crucial for reigniting the uptrend as the market heads into spring.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 625 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 647.75 vs September to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 647.75 level.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, sparking bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, dragging futures back below key moving averages. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as resistance on any rebound, while previous lows near 580 should provide a key support level. A sustained move above resistance would be needed to reignite the uptrend.

Other Charts / Weather

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3-11 End of Day: WASDE Keeps Corn and Soybean Carryout Steady, Wheat Carryout Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: With the U.S. corn balance sheet unchanged from last month’s USDA estimates, corn futures pulled back from early session highs, finishing slightly lower on the day.

  • Soybeans: Like corn, the U.S. soybean balance sheet remained unchanged in today’s WASDE report. Similarly, soybean futures retreated from early session highs to close lower on the day.

  • Wheat: An unexpected increase in U.S. wheat carryout pressured wheat futures lower today.

  • To see the updated U.S. 0-40 cm Soil Moisture Percentile as well as the 30-day percent of normal rainfall map and the 14-day precipitation outlook for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • No Official Targets: There have been three official sales recommendations year-to-date, and currently there’s no active target for a fourth sale.

    • Catch-Up Zone: If you haven’t made three sales for 2025 yet, the suggested zone is 480–490 vs. May to catch-up. At today’s high, May got within about three cents of the lower end of this range.

    • Hold Steady: If you’ve followed all three prior recommendations for 2025, Grain Market Insider advises to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY: Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 420 corn puts for approximately 21 cents, plus commission and fees.

  • Downside Protection: Put options serve as a valuable hedging tool, protecting against further downside price erosion on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest.  Combined with the existing call options, this creates a Strangle strategy — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

  • No Official Targets: There have also been three official sales recommendations year-to-date for the 2025 new crop corn, and currently there’s no active target for a fourth sale.

    • Catch-Up Zone: If you haven’t made three sales since January 1 yet, the suggested zone is 462–473 vs. December to catch-up. At today’s high December got within about four cents of the lower end of this range.

    • Hold Steady: If you’ve followed all three prior sales recommendations since January 1, Grain Market Insider advises to sit tight for now.   

2026 Crop: 

  • Active Window: The first 2026 upside targets could post at any time — stay tuned for updates!

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures retreated from early session highs as the USDA made no adjustments to the supply and demand balance sheets in the March WASDE report. Continued selling pressure in the equity markets further limited gains in the corn market on Tuesday.

  • The USDA’s March WASDE report, released Tuesday morning, kept all components of the corn supply and demand balance sheet unchanged from February, leaving carryover at 1.540 billion bushels. Market analysts had anticipated a slight reduction to 1.516 billion bushels, and the lack of revisions kept upside momentum in check.

  • In the export market, U.S. corn remains highly competitive for importers through June. However, as South American supplies enter the market, increased competition is expected to weigh on bids.

  • A sharp sell-off in equity markets may be contributing to a broader “risk-off” sentiment, as growing economic recession concerns limit capital flows into commodity markets.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index remains under pressure, trading at its lowest level since October 2024. A weaker dollar relative to other currencies should help support U.S. commodity purchases on the global market.

Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low that can be built off as we head towards spring. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • New Highs: Given the early timing and soybeans’ tendency to post later seasonal highs than corn, Grain Market Insider is currently leaning toward a price target above the February high of 1079.75 for the next sale recommendation.

  • Catch-up Zone: There have been three official sales recs on 2024 soybeans year-to-date.
    • If you haven’t made three sales since January 1, target 1056–1076 to catch up.

    • If you’re in line with the three sales recommendations, the advice is still to sit tight for now.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to re-own previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower after giving back earlier gains in response to a largely uneventful WASDE report. Soybean oil led the complex lower, extending losses from yesterday following China’s announcement of tariffs on Canadian canola products. Soybean meal also ended the session in negative territory.

  • Today’s WASDE report saw very few changes to soybeans with the U.S. ending stocks number unchanged from last month at 380 mb, but world stockpiles were reduced to 121.4 mmt from 124.3 mmt from February. Brazilian soybean production was left unchanged at 169.0 mmt and Argentina’s production was also unchanged at 49.0 mmt.

  • China’s decision to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian canola meal, oil, and peas sent Canadian prices tumbling, with spillover pressure weighing on U.S. soybean markets. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade relations between the U.S., China, and Canada has also contributed to soybean price weakness.

  • The Brazilian soybean harvest is reportedly 61% complete as of last Thursday which compares to 55% at this time last year which is impressive after the country’s late start to planting.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As March began, improved weather and harvest pressure in South America caused a sharp price decline. Support held around the 1000 level, with stronger support near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a critical barrier.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three wheat classes posted modest losses today, as the USDA report leaned bearish for the market. Higher global production estimates and a 1.5 mmt reduction in Chinese imports weighed on prices, while lower Matif wheat futures provided no support for U.S. markets.

  • The USDA raised U.S. 24/25 wheat carryout from 794 mb to 819 mb, while global ending stocks increased from 257.6 mmt to 260.1 mmt — both above average trade estimates. Additionally, U.S. wheat exports were lowered from 850 mb to 835 mb.

  • World wheat production was revised higher from 793.79 mmt to 797.23 mmt, with increases coming from Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, and Australia. Russian export projections declined slightly by 0.5 mmt to 45.0 mmt, while Ukrainian exports held steady at 15.5 mmt. Australian exports rose by 1.0 mmt to 26.0 mmt.

  • Select states released crop condition data yesterday afternoon. Winter wheat ratings in Kansas fell 2% to 54% good to excellent, while in Texas they declined by 6% to 28%. Oklahoma, however, saw an increase of 11% to 46% GTE. Above average temperatures this week along with high winds in the central and southern plains could zap soil moisture, which may result in worsening conditions.

  • In Argentina, wheat planting will begin in May. Recent heavy rains in main growing areas have led to favorable conditions which could benefit the 25/26 wheat harvest. In recent years, Argentina has dealt with drought, so this moisture will be beneficial.

  • According to Coceral, their combined EU and UK 2025 grain harvest estimate has declined from 297.8 mmt to 296.1 mmt. For soft wheat specifically, their estimate was reduced from 140.4 mmt to 137.2 mmt. However, that would still be above the 2024 harvest at 125.1 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 701 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 714 level.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 704 level.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat’s Volatile Breakout and Retreat
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, surging to key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, the late February peak proved to be a turning point, as futures retreated sharply, slipping back into the previous trading range that defined the end of 2024. Support has so far held near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average looms as a key resistance level near 570. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day could signal a potential trend reversal and renewed upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 717 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 677 level.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Faces Key Technical Test
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, the rally lost steam in late February, leading to a sharp retreat back into the previous trading range. Support has held firm near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average is expected to serve as resistance on any attempted rebound. A decisive close above key resistance will be crucial for reigniting the uptrend as the market heads into spring.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 625 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 647.75 vs September to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 647.75 level.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, sparking bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, dragging futures back below key moving averages. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as resistance on any rebound, while previous lows near 580 should provide a key support level. A sustained move above resistance would be needed to reignite the uptrend.

Other Charts / Weather

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3-10 End of Day: Wheat Higher, Beans Lower on Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Started the week higher, with old crop contracts seeing the strongest gains. Strong export inspections and a flash sale to Japan reinforced the strong demand tone.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans were lower on Monday, despite a flash sale to unknown destinations, ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report.

  • Wheat: Posted double-digit gains to start the week, as early dryness concerns in the Southern Plains and technical buying fueled the move higher.

  • To see the updated ECMWF 10-day precipitation forecast anomaly for South America and the 6–10-day precipitation and forecast outlook for the U.S., scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • No Official Targets: There have been three official sales recommendations year-to-date, and currently there’s no active target for a fourth sale.

    • Catch-Up Zone: If you haven’t made three sales for 2025 yet, the suggested zone is 480–490 vs. May to catch-up.

    • Hold Steady: If you’ve followed all three prior recommendations for 2025, Grain Market Insider advises to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY: Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 420 corn puts for approximately 21 cents, plus commission and fees.

  • Downside Protection: Put options serve as a valuable hedging tool, protecting against further downside price erosion on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest.  Combined with the existing call options, this creates a Strangle strategy — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

  • No Official Targets: There have also been three official sales recommendations year-to-date for the 2025 new crop corn, and currently there’s no active target for a fourth sale.

    • Catch-Up Zone: If you haven’t made three sales since January 1 yet, the suggested zone is 462–473 vs. December to catch-up.  At today’s high December got within about five cents of the lower end of this range.

    • Hold Steady: If you’ve followed all three prior sales recommendations since January 1, Grain Market Insider advises to sit tight for now.   

2026 Crop: 

  • Active Window: The first 2026 upside targets could post at any time — stay tuned for updates!

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished slightly higher, supported by strong demand and buying in the wheat market. The front end of the market saw the most active buying, lifting deferred futures.

  • Weekly corn export inspections were strong at 1.820 MMT, exceeding the top end of expectations. Total corn inspections are trending 33% higher than last year and remain ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA export target.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn on Monday morning. Japan stepped into the export market and purchased 126,000 MT (5.0 mb) of corn for the current marketing year.

  • Second crop corn planting in central and southern Brazil is on pace. Ag consulting group AgRural estimates corn planting in those key regions to be 92% complete, only 1% behind last year’s pace. 

  • Brazil weather conditions for development of the second crop corn will be a major focus in the market. Mato Grasso, Brazil’s largest corn producing province is see very good weather conditions, but area wet and south of Mato Grasso are concerned as forecasts remain warm and dry for that region.

Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low that can be built off as we head towards spring. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 117,702 contracts between February 25 – March 4, bringing their total position to a net long 219,752 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • New Highs: Given the early timing and soybeans’ tendency to post later seasonal highs than corn, Grain Market Insider is currently leaning toward a price target above the February high of 1079.75 for the next sale recommendation.

  • Catch-up Zone: There have been three official sales recs on 2024 soybeans year-to-date.
    • If you haven’t made three sales since January 1, target 1056–1076 to catch up.

    • If you’re in line with the three sales recommendations, the advice is still to sit tight for now.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to re-own previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower with pressure from both soybean meal and oil after a Chinese decision was announced to place tariffs on Canadian canola products. A slow export pace and large Brazilian crop continue to bring prices lower in a downward trending market over the past month. The USDA reported a sale of 195,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for 24/25.

  • Over the weekend, China announced that they would place 100% tariffs on Canadian canola meal, oil, and peas. This caused Canadian prices to tumble and had a spillover effect into the US market. General uncertainty over tariffs between the US, China, and Canada have also lent to the recent weakness in soybeans.

  • The USDA will release its WASDE report tomorrow at 11 a.m., but few changes are expected. Ending stocks for 24/25 soybeans are expected to remain unchanged at 380 mb, as any declines in export demand are likely to be offset by increased crush demand.

  • Today’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections totaling 31 mb for the week ending March 6. This was towards the higher end of trade estimates and was above last week. Total inspections are now up 10% from last year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 43,696 contracts leaving them with a new net short position of 35,487 contracts. They sold 33,383 contracts of bean oil and 22,151 contracts of bean meal.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As March began, improved weather and harvest pressure in South America caused a sharp price decline. Support held around the 1000 level, with stronger support near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a critical barrier.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 43,696 contracts between February 25 – March 4, bringing their total position to a net short 35,487 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted double-digit gains across all three classes, led by Kansas City. Paris milling wheat futures added support after opening slightly higher. Additionally, drier weather, record high temperatures, and heavy winds in the U.S. Southern Plains this week could negatively impact the winter wheat crop as it exits dormancy.

  • Weekly wheat inspections reached 7.9 mb, bringing total 24/25 inspections to 582 mb, up 20% from last year. However, inspections are lagging the USDA’s projected pace, with total 24/25 exports estimated at 850 mb, an 18% increase from the previous year.

  • According to IKAR, the Russian wheat export price declined last week by $1 to $247/mt. Additionally, SovEcon reported that Russia’s wheat exports last week totaled 310,000 mt, up from the 280,000 mt the week before. However, they are projecting March ’25 exports at 1.4-1.8 mmt which would be far below 4.8 mmt of exports in March ’24.

  • Friday afternoon’s data from the CFTC indicated that managed funds added nearly 18,000 contracts to their net short position in Kansas City wheat between February 25 and March 4. This is about an 84% change for the week and brings their total net short in KC wheat to about 39,000 contracts. In Chicago wheat, they added just under 15,000 shorts in the same time period, for a total net short of just over 82,000 contracts. 

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 701 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 714 level.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 704 level.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Head Fake
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range that marked the end of 2024. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rebound.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 14,785 contracts between February 25 – March 4, bringing their total position to a net short 82,399 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 717 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 677 level.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Breaks Lower
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rally.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 17,947 contracts between February 25 – March 4, bringing their total position to a net short 39,282 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 625 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 647.75 vs September to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 647.75 level.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

February Whipsaw
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, sending futures back below key moving averages. Moving forward, the 200-day MA is likely to serve as upside resistance, while previous lows near 580 should provide support.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 11,983 contracts between February 25 – March 4, bringing their total position to a net short 17,192 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather