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5-12 End of Day: Grains Mixed to Start the Week: Soybeans Soar on Trade Optimism, Corn Steady, Wheat Pressured by Bearish Data

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: The corn market finished mixed on Monday despite a superficially supportive USDA WASDE report and easing U.S.-China trade tensions.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended sharply higher on the day, buoyed by a wave of bullish headlines including a U.S.-China tariff agreement, a supportive WASDE report, and strength in both soybean oil and meal.

  • 🌾 Wheat: A slightly bearish WASDE report and forecasted rains for spring wheat areas pressured wheat futures to start the week.

  • To see the updated 7-day WPC rainfall forecast for the U.S. and the 6-10-day precipitation and temperature outlooks for the U.S. from the CPC scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No upside targets at this time.

      • If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:
    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished mixed on the session despite a “on-the-surface” supportive USDA WASDE report and easing U.S.-China trade tensions. Fund selling, rapid U.S. planting progress, and larger global supplies weighed on market sentiment.

  • In the May WASDE, USDA raised old crop corn export demand by 50 million bushels, lowering 2024/25 ending stocks to 1.415 billion bushels—below market expectations. However, a 4 MMT increase in Brazil’s crop estimate to 131 MMT added bearish pressure, reinforcing concerns about global competition.

  • USDA also released its first projections for the 2025/26 marketing year. Using March planting intentions (95.7 million acres) and a trendline yield of 181 bu/acre, USDA forecast ending stocks at 1.800 billion bushels—200 mb below pre-report expectations. A notable 150 mb increase in feed demand was included in the new crop outlook. This tighter balance sheet raises the stakes for favorable U.S. weather during the growing season.

  • Weekly corn export inspections totaled 1.224 MMT for the week ending May 8, in line with expectations. Year-to-date export inspections are now 29% higher than the same period last year.

  • May corn futures expire on Wednesday, May 14, and could continue to influence the old crop side of the corn market with short-term price movement. Money Managers net sold 57,436 contracts between April 29 – May 6, bringing their total position to a net long 13,893 contracts.

Corn Back Near Calendar Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

    • Since last summer, soybeans have largely traded within a range of 950 to 1060. If this rangebound price action continues, the first risk would be a move back toward the lower end at 950. Seasonally, May and June are key months to secure downside protection. Adding 1040 put options will provide coverage against lower prices while keeping upside potential open and not having to commit any physical bushels.

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher following multiple bullish headlines today. This morning, it was announced that President Trump and China’s President Xi made an agreement to lower tariffs over the next 90 days. This was followed by a friendly WASDE report and higher crude oil that supported soybean oil, and bean meal was higher as well.

  • Markets jumped early following news that President Trump and Chinese President Xi reached a 90-day tariff truce, rolling back U.S. soybean tariffs to 30% from 145%, with China cutting its tariffs on U.S. goods to 10% from 125%. The announcement sparked rallies in soybeans, hogs, and equities.

  • The USDA’s WASDE report added fuel to the rally, as it lowered 2024/25 soybean ending stocks to 350 million bushels from 375 million last month, and projected 2025/26 carryout at just 295 million bushels—well below trade expectations of 362 million. South American production estimates were unchanged, with Argentina at 50.0 MMT and Brazil at 169.0 MMT.

  • Today’s Export Inspections report saw soybean inspections total 15.7 mb for the week ending May 8, and total inspections are now at 1.613 bb, up 11% from the previous year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 16,332 contracts, which left them with a net long position of 21,870 contracts. They sold 6,649 contracts of bean oil, leaving them long 56,738 contracts and sold 5,230 contracts of meal leaving them short 103,457 contracts.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex closed lower across all three classes, with Minneapolis futures leading the decline amid forecasts for rainfall in the U.S. Northern Plains later this week.

  • Pressure also came from a bearish tone in the USDA’s WASDE report, which offset optimism from recent U.S.-China trade talks. The wheat market instead focused on a surging U.S. Dollar Index, which reached a one-month high.

  • USDA pegged 2025/26 U.S. all-wheat production at 1.921 billion bushels, down from 1.971 bb in 2024/25 but above the average trade estimate of 1.896 bb. Winter wheat was estimated at 1.349 bb, unchanged from the prior year.

  • 2024/25 U.S. wheat ending stocks came in at 841 million bushels, down 5 mb from April, while 2025/26 ending stocks jumped to 923 mb—well above expectations and the high end of pre-report guesses.

  • Global 2024/25 wheat carryout was raised to 265.2 million metric tons (mmt) from 260.7 mmt in April. The initial 2025/26 world ending stocks estimate was 265.7 mmt, also above expectations.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 14.9 mb, bringing cumulative 2024/25 inspections to 745 mb—15% above last year but still slightly behind the pace needed to meet USDA’s unchanged export forecast of 820 mb.

  • China has reportedly purchased between 400,000 to 500,000 mt of milling-quality wheat, sourced from Canada and Australia in the past few weeks. Despite being the world’s top wheat producer, China still needs to import wheat to meet demand. And with current heat and dryness in their wheat belt, their imports could increase. For reference, in 2024 China purchased $3.5 billion worth of wheat, totaling 11 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • The 701 target was lowered to 699.25.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 696 target was lowered to 688. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, rallying to October highs just above 615. But the rally was short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into the 2024 range. Solid support near 530 has held through March and early May, reinforcing its importance. The next key hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could mark a turning point and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • The 645 target was cancelled.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Ground Amid Historic Acreage Lows
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend in late January, igniting a wave of bullish momentum. The rally accelerated in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pulled futures below key support. Unlike winter wheat, spring wheat has managed to consolidate near multiple moving averages, which are currently holding as support. The next upside target is the February high near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather will likely be a key driver of price direction this season.

Other Charts / Weather

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5-9 End of Day: Grains Mixed to Close the Week Ahead of Key Trade Talks

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures finished the week with gains, supported by firmer spreads and a technical bounce from oversold levels.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed higher, buoyed by optimism surrounding the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks this weekend.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures slipped on Friday, underperforming as they failed to follow strength in corn and soybeans.

  • Too see the updated 7-day WPC rainfall forecast for the U.S. and the 8–14-day precipitation outlook for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes: None.

      • No upside targets at this time.

      • If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:
    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
    • NEW: Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • NEW: Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • An additional downside target has been added to liquidate another quarter of the 420 December put options. This target may be reached before the 43 ¾ cents target.

      • A downside target was also set to roll down the current 510 & 550 call options, which would enhance upside protection on prior cash sales recommendations through the summer.  

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the week higher, building on positive momentum and firmer spread action as the market corrected from oversold conditions ahead of Monday’s WASDE release.

  • Demand was supportive again Friday, with another 288,000 metric tons sold to Mexico — bringing the two-day total to over 600,000 mt, showing lower prices have sparked renewed interest in U.S. corn.

  • Warmer weather is forecast across the U.S. into late May, which should aid planting progress and support early crop development.

  • The USDA is expected to raise old crop export estimates in Monday’s report, likely trimming 2024/25 ending stocks. However, new crop ending stocks are projected to climb significantly, potentially exceeding 2 billion bushels due to a much higher U.S. average figure. These estimates would suggest that a sustained rally would require a major weather-related disruption.

  • In Argentina, the corn harvest is 35% complete, advancing just 4% on the week, according to BAGE.

Corn Back Near Calander Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

    • Since last summer, soybeans have largely traded within a range of 950 to 1060. If this rangebound price action continues, the first risk would be a move back toward the lower end at 950. Seasonally, May and June are key months to secure downside protection. Adding 1040 put options will provide coverage against lower prices while keeping upside potential open and not having to commit any physical bushels.

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes: None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher for a second day but remained rangebound between $10.35 and $10.65. Traders are eyeing Friday’s Trump-Xi meeting, where a potential trade deal could support the market. Soybean meal ended lower, while soybean oil gained alongside crude.

  • In South America, weather is expected to remain friendly for the continuation of harvest, which is expected to be a record, and in the U.S., warmer weather should boost planting pace and emergence into the rest of the month.

  • On Monday, the WASDE report will be released, and trade expects the 2024/25 U.S. soybean carryout near 369 million bushels vs USDA’s 374, and 2025/26 at 362 million. The expected 2025 U.S. soybean crop is projected at 4.338 billion bushels, slightly below last year’s 4.366 billion

  • For the week, July soybeans lost 6-1/4 cents while November was completely unchanged at $10.30-1/2. July soybean meal lost $2.80 to finish at $294.10, and July soybean oil lost 0.86 cents to 48.57 cents.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures ended lower Friday, unable to follow corn and soybeans higher. Volatility may increase next week with the USDA’s WASDE report and U.S.-China trade talks in focus. Lack of progress could pressure markets, while signs of a deal may boost grain prices.

  • Monday’s WASDE (11 AM CT) is expected to show U.S. 2024/25 wheat ending stocks near 845 mb, down slightly from April, and initial 2025/26 stocks projected at 848 mb. Global carryout is expected to remain steady around 260.7 mmt for 2024/25, with 2025/26 pegged at 259.8 mmt.

  • U.S. 2025/26 wheat production is forecast at 1.896 bb, down from 1.971 bb last season. Winter wheat is seen at 1.333 bb. Total wheat acreage remains historically low at 45.4 million acres, per March USDA data.

  • Geopolitical headlines added intrigue, with reports the U.S. and EU may propose a 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

  • Wheat seedings in western Australia are expected to be smaller than initially thought, due to unfavorable conditions. It has been persistently dry – according to the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia, farmers will plant 4.07 million hectares of wheat for the 25/26 season, which compares to the April estimate of 4.19 million hectares.

  • According to FranceAgriMer, an estimated 74% of the French soft wheat crop is rated in good or very good condition as of May 5. This was steady with the week prior. Additionally, temperatures are expected to increase this weekend with rains in the forecast for western and southwestern regions.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 44 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 696 against July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, rallying to October highs just above 615. But the rally was short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into the 2024 range. Solid support near 530 has held through March and early May, reinforcing its importance. The next key hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could mark a turning point and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 645 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • With just 44 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 44 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Ground Amid Historic Acreage Lows
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend in late January, igniting a wave of bullish momentum. The rally accelerated in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pulled futures below key support. Unlike winter wheat, spring wheat has managed to consolidate near multiple moving averages, which are currently holding as support. The next upside target is the February high near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather will likely be a key driver of price direction this season.

Other Charts / Weather

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5-8 End of Day: Grains Mixed Following Weekly Export Sales Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn markets failed to gain upward momentum throughout today’s session and ended with losses, despite a supportive export sales report.

  • Soybeans: Unlike corn and wheat, the soybean market closed higher, supported by a strong performance in soybean oil and a reported sale of U.S. soybeans by the USDA.

  • Wheat: The wheat markets continued their downward trend into the afternoon, ultimately closing lower driven by improved weather conditions across key growing regions.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes: None.

      • No upside targets at this time.

      • If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:
    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
    • NEW: Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • NEW: Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • An additional downside target has been added to liquidate another quarter of the 420 December put options. This target may be reached before the 43 ¾ cents target.

      • A downside target was also set to roll down the current 510 & 550 call options, which would enhance upside protection on prior cash sales recommendations through the summer.  

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the day with marginal losses, despite supportive export demand news and some late-session short covering. July corn has now closed lower in five of the past six sessions. For the week, the July contract is down 21 ½ cents heading into Friday’s trade.

  • Managed funds continue to liquidate their long position, pressuring the corn market. The last commitment of traders was estimated funds were long 71,000 contracts of corn. As planting weather has been favorable, and possible bearish projections for the 2025-26 marketing year, funds have continued to liquidate those long positions, pressuring the corn market, especially the July futures.

  • USDA announced weekly export sales for corn on Thursday morning. For the week ending May 1, USDA reported new sales of 1.663 MMT (65.5 mb) for the week. This was up 67% over last week and 47% above the 4-week average. Japan was the top buyer of U.S. corn again last week. Total export sales are trending ahead of the pace to reach USDA targets for the marketing year and up 27% over last year.

  • USDA announced two flash exports sales of corn on Thursday morning. Mexico purchased 205,000 MT (8.1 mb) of corn split between the current and next marketing year. Of that total, 40,000 MT was for 2024-25 and 165,000 MT was for 2025-26. In addition, unknown destinations purchased 115,000MT (4.5 mb) of corn for the 2024-25 marketing year.

  • On Monday, USDA will release the next WASDE report. The market will be watching closely for any demand adjustment that could reduce old crop carryout below 1.400 bb. The May report will also give the first projections for the 2025-26 crop year. The combination of extra corn acres and trendline yield could place new crop carryout over the 2.000 bb mark. That total would be a bearish starting point and has pressured the market.

Corn Back Near Calander Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

    • Since last summer, soybeans have largely traded within a range of 950 to 1060. If this rangebound price action continues, the first risk would be a move back toward the lower end at 950. Seasonally, May and June are key months to secure downside protection. Adding 1040 put options will provide coverage against lower prices while keeping upside potential open and not having to commit any physical bushels.

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes: None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher while corn and wheat were lower thanks to a strong showing in soybean oil. Crude oil rallied by over 3% which supported soybean oil and therefore soybeans despite slightly lower soybean meal. Export sales were in the middle of the road, but there was a flash sale reported as well.

  • Today’s export sales were a bit disappointing for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 13.8 mb for 24/25 and an increase of 0.4 mb for 25/26. This was down 12% from the previous week but up 11% from the prior 4-week average. Primary destinations were to Mexico, unknown destinations, and Japan. Last week’s export shipments of 9.5 mb were below the 11.2 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

  • A bright spot for soybean exports today was the announcement of a sale of 225,000 tons of soybeans that were sold to Pakistan for 25/26. This was the largest daily sale to Pakistan since June 2022 and confirms their earlier commitment to buy more cotton and soybeans from the U.S.

  • The demand in the soybean oil market has been providing support to soybean prices.  Weekly soybean oil export sales were strong at 14.6 MT, near the top end of expectations, and new crop sales of 1.1 MT topped expectations. Current total sales for soybean oil in the 2024-25 marketing year total 990.6 MT, up nearly 800% over last year.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat market continued its downward trend, closing lower across all three futures classes. Kansas City wheat futures set new contract lows before a slight rebound. The U.S. Dollar Index surged today and is on track to close above its 21-day moving average for the first time since April 1. This put additional pressure on the U.S. wheat complex, compounded by a lower close for Paris milling wheat futures.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 2.6 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 18.1 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 18.1 mb, which was under the 23.4 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 820 mb for 24/25. Total 24/25 wheat shipments have reached 700 mb, which is up 12% from last year.

  • Today’s big news was that the U.S. and the UK have reached a trade deal. Grain markets largely shrugged this off, however, as it appears to have a more prominent impact on U.S. beef and ethanol exports to the UK. Nevertheless, this could be the first step towards trade deals with other countries, which in theory should be bullish for ag markets.

  • According to Statistics Canada, their nation’s all wheat stocks were estimated at 15.421 mmt as of March 31. This exceeded expectations of 14.9 mmt but was below the 15.601 mmt figure from a year ago. Furthermore, LSEG is estimating 25/26 Canadian wheat production at 36.5 mmt, which would be 4.5% above last season’s harvest.  

  • The USDA has estimated that approximately 22% of winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions as of May 6; this is down 1% from the week prior. Spring wheat areas in drought were held steady at 37%. At the same time a year ago an estimated 28% of winter wheat was in drought, while spring wheat was at just 15%.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 45 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 696 against July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, rallying to October highs just above 615. But the rally was short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into the 2024 range. Solid support near 530 has held through March and early May, reinforcing its importance. The next key hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could mark a turning point and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 645 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • With just 45 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 45 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Ground Amid Historic Acreage Lows
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend in late January, igniting a wave of bullish momentum. The rally accelerated in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pulled futures below key support. Unlike winter wheat, spring wheat has managed to consolidate near multiple moving averages, which are currently holding as support. The next upside target is the February high near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather will likely be a key driver of price direction this season.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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5-7 End of Day: Grains Slide Despite News of U.S./China Upcoming Meeting

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures ended lower despite strong overnight gains after news of U.S.-China trade talks set for this weekend.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended mixed in bear spreading action, with front months lower and deferred contracts higher.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures ended lower, with Chicago posting small losses while Kansas City and Minneapolis saw steeper declines.

  • To see the updated soil moisture percentile map and the 14-day GFS precipitation anomaly outlook for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes: None.

      • No upside targets at this time.

      • If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:
    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
    • NEW: Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • NEW: Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • An additional downside target has been added to liquidate another quarter of the 420 December put options. This target may be reached before the 43 ¾ cents target.

      • A downside target was also set to roll down the current 510 & 550 call options, which would enhance upside protection on prior cash sales recommendations through the summer.  

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Despite strong overnight prices in the corn market, the sellers held their grip on the old crop futures, pushing July to its lowest close since December. The selling pressure trickled into new crop prices, finishing the December contract with marginal losses on the session. July corn has traded lower for 4 of the past 5 sessions and nearly 50 cents off the most recent high.

  • Overnight strength came from news of U.S.-China trade talks set for this weekend in Switzerland, sparking short covering. However, futures failed to break resistance and faded through the day session.

  • Ethanol production averaged 1.020 million bpd last week, down 1.9% from the prior week but still 5.9% above last year. Ethanol stocks remain heavy at 25.191 million barrels, while corn use for ethanol totaled 102.91 mb — on pace to meet USDA targets.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. The trend in export sales has been supportive of corn prices as accumulated sales are trending well ahead of the USDA totals to reach the marketing year export target. Last week, export sales totaled 1.014 MMT.

  • Weather models remain friendly for possible rapid planting pace. Temperatures across most of the corn belt are expected to be above normal and drier than normal precipitation. If the current pattern holds, some areas will turn significantly dry and may be in need of precipitation to aid early development of the corn crop.

Corn Back Near Calander Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

    • Since last summer, soybeans have largely traded within a range of 950 to 1060. If this rangebound price action continues, the first risk would be a move back toward the lower end at 950. Seasonally, May and June are key months to secure downside protection. Adding 1040 put options will provide coverage against lower prices while keeping upside potential open and not having to commit any physical bushels.

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes: None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended mixed in bear spreading action, with front months lower and deferred contracts higher. Prices faded from overnight highs after news of planned U.S.-China trade talks. Soybean meal firmed, while soybean oil followed crude lower.

  • Despite progress on U.S.-China talks, trader skepticism over a quick resolution weighed on futures throughout the session. Without a deal before harvest, demand concerns could pressure prices further.

  • Over the next two weeks, the weather is forecast to be warmer and drier than normal in the corn and soy belts. While some areas have received rain over the past few weeks, many already have low soil moisture levels which could become a bigger problem given a drier summer.

  • In Brazil, the Mato Grosso Institute for Agricultural Economics (IMEA) has projected that state’s soybean production at 50.89 mmt. If realized, this would be a 30% jump over 2024 production. This is said to be due to higher estimated acreage and yields. Over the past few years, Mato Grosso has produced nearly one-third of Brazil’s soybeans.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures ended lower, with Chicago posting small losses while Kansas City and Minneapolis saw steeper declines. Pressure on hard red wheat followed the Oklahoma Wheat Commission’s production forecast of 101.2 mb — marking a second consecutive year above 100 mb. Western Kansas also received beneficial rains, and a firmer U.S. Dollar plus weakness in Matif wheat added to the downside.

  • Early strength was tied to reports that U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Switzerland this weekend to discuss trade — a broad boost for the grain complex, though direct benefits may lean more toward soybeans and corn.

  • On a bullish note, the Henan province in China is expected to see a windy weather pattern, along with hot and dry conditions; this province produces about a third of China’s wheat. Drought continues to expand throughout China’s wheat belt, which could mean that they will need to import down the road. Also supportive is the fact that U.S. SRW wheat is currently the world’s cheapest. Furthermore, U.S. HRW wheat at the Gulf is said to be at a 25-cent discount to Russian wheat.

  • Global turmoil is likely to continue to inject volatility into commodity markets. News outlets have reported that India launched an attack on Pakistan overnight in response to an attack last month on tourists that resulted in 26 deaths. Pakistan also claims to have shot down several Indian jets. This has raised concerns about war brewing between the two nations.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 46 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 696 against July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, rallying to October highs just above 615. But the rally was short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into the 2024 range. Solid support near 530 has held through March and early May, reinforcing its importance. The next key hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could mark a turning point and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 645 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • With just 46 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 46 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Ground Amid Historic Acreage Lows
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend in late January, igniting a wave of bullish momentum. The rally accelerated in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pulled futures below key support. Unlike winter wheat, spring wheat has managed to consolidate near multiple moving averages, which are currently holding as support. The next upside target is the February high near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather will likely be a key driver of price direction this season.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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5-6 End of Day: Grains Trade Mixed as Spring Planting Progresses

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures ended the day mixed, with nearby contracts holding steady while deferred months faced pressure from favorable weather conditions that are accelerating planting progress across key growing regions.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures closed lower for the second consecutive session, pressured by a better-than-expected crop progress report showing spring planting running well ahead of the five-year average.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures posted gains at the close, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and favorable weather conditions boosting crop development.

  • To see the updated 30-day percent of normal and accumulated rainfall map for the U.S. and the 7-day rainfall outlook U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes: None.

      • No upside targets at this time.

      • If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:
    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
    • NEW: Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • NEW: Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • An additional downside target has been added to liquidate another quarter of the 420 December put options. This target may be reached before the 43 ¾ cents target.

      • A downside target was also set to roll down the current 510 & 550 call options, which would enhance upside protection on prior cash sales recommendations through the summer.  

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished with mixed trade as stability returned to old crop futures with a strong demand tone, while deferred contracts remained under pressure due to favorable weather supporting a solid planting pace for this year’s crop.

  • The USDA released the latest crop progress report on Monday afternoon. As of May 4, the USDA estimated that 40% of this year’s corn crop was planted, up 16% over last week. This was 1% below expectations, but 1% ahead of 5-year average.  Key corn producing state, Illinois, was the biggest laggard on the totals with 32% of the crop plants, down 12% from the 5-year average.

  • Weather models remain friendly for possible rapid planting pace. Temperatures across most of the corn belt are expected to be above normal and drier than normal precipitation. The prospects of strong planting pace limited new crop corn futures.

  • Strong demand tone will support old crop corn futures as export demand and ethanol demand are trending above USDA market year projections. The recent weakness in prices will likely limit cash marketing, and basis levels will likely firm to promote additional cash sales.

  • Weather conditions for the Brazil corn crop have been overall very friendly, and some analyst groups have raised their production forecasts for the key second crop corn. With harvest a few weeks away, the fresh supplies will be in competition with U.S. corn bushels on the export market.

Corn Sandwiched Between Support and Resistance
Corn futures staged a breakout in April after repeatedly defending key support near 450 throughout March. A bullish April WASDE report — driven by stronger-than-expected demand — lit the spark, propelling prices through the 50-day moving average and igniting renewed bullish momentum. As the market enters May, traders are focused on two key drivers: weather outlooks across the Corn Belt and ongoing demand signals. The February highs just above 510 now stand as the next upside target. However, early May weakness has cracked support near 470, leaving the door open for a retest of the familiar 450 level — the early 2025 low — as the next key floor.

Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ALERT – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

    • Since last summer, soybeans have largely traded within a range of 950 to 1060. If this rangebound price action continues, the first risk would be a move back toward the lower end at 950. Seasonally, May and June are key months to secure downside protection. Adding 1040 put options will provide coverage against lower prices while keeping upside potential open and not having to commit any physical bushels.

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • NEW: Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes: None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the second consecutive day following the crop progress report that showed planting pace well above the 5-year average amid generally good weather that has been conducive to planting. Soybean meal was lower to end the day along with soybean oil despite a rally in crude oil.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw that the soybean crop is 30% planted, which compares to 18% last week and the 5-year average of 23%. The pace was slightly below the average trade guess of 31%. 7% of the crop has emerged which compares to the average of 5%. Planting is ahead of the average pace in every state except for Illinois where it is 1 point behind the average.

  • In Brazil, the Mato Grosso Institute for Agricultural Economics (IMEA) has projected that state’s soybean production at 50.89 mmt. If realized, this would be a 30% jump over 2024 production. This is said to be due to higher estimated acreage and yields. Over the past few years, Mato Grosso has produced nearly one-third of Brazil’s soybeans. 

  • Both old and new crop soybean futures have technical support around their respective 40 and 50 day moving averages. However, if they break this support, momentum would point to more downside and a potential re-test of the April lows.

Soybean Futures Hold Above Key Support
Soybean futures plunged in early April as news of fresh tariffs sent prices tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 level — a floor that had held firm throughout March. The break triggered a wave of technical selling, but the dip was short-lived. Aggressive buying interest quickly emerged, sparking a sharp rebound that not only reclaimed the 1000 level but also vaulted futures back above key moving averages. Notably, the 200-day moving average — a persistent ceiling for nearly two years — was decisively overtaken. With momentum building, the market is now setting its sights on a potential retest of the February highs near 1080, while the reclaimed 200-day average is poised to serve as a strong layer of support during any spring setbacks.

Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat put some green on the board today, with a higher close in all three classes. Support came from a drop in the U.S. Dollar, a higher close for Matif wheat futures, and a technical bounce as U.S. wheat remains oversold and funds are record short.  

  • Yesterday’s crop progress report from the USDA indicated that winter wheat conditions improved 2% from last week, to 51% good to excellent; 39% of the crops are headed compared to 41% last year and 33% average. Additionally, 44% of the spring wheat crop is planted, versus 45% a year ago and 34% average. An estimated 13% of spring wheat has emerged, which is ahead of the 11% pace last year and 9% on average.

  • East-central China is seeing heat and dryness that could affect their wheat production. Additionally, freezing temperatures could impact winter wheat in northeast Europe and the Baltics. However, these weather issues may be somewhat counterbalanced by better rains expected for parts of Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

  • IKAR has increased their estimate of 2025 Russian wheat production from 82.5 mmt to 83.8 mmt. In addition, they also increased their Russian wheat export forecast from 40 mmt to 41.3 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • NEW: Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • Sales target has been lowered.

      • With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • NEW: Target 696 against July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • Sales target has been lowered. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • NEW: Target 645 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • Sales target has been lowered.

      • With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

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5-5 End of Day: Grains Slide as Weather and Macro Pressures Weigh on Markets

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures finished lower as warm, dry forecasts across the Corn Belt supported planting progress and kept selling pressure on the market.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures weakened in bear spreading action, with the front months leading the decline and giving back Friday’s gains. Weak energy prices and ample planting conditions added to the pressure.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures fell sharply, led by winter wheat, as broad commodity weakness and a risk-off tone weighed. Spring wheat losses were modest, supported by dryness in the Northern Plains.

  • To see the updated 15-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the U.S. and the 8-14 day temperature outlook U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes: None.

      • No upside targets at this time.

      • If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:
    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
    • NEW: Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • NEW: Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • An additional downside target has been added to liquidate another quarter of the 420 December put options. This target may be reached before the 43 ¾ cents target.

      • A downside target was also set to roll down the current 510 & 550 call options, which would enhance upside protection on prior cash sales recommendations through the summer.  

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Technical selling and long liquidation weighed on corn, with prices ending moderately to sharply lower. Favorable weather and solid planting progress kept pressure on the market as supply concerns eased.

  • Corn planting is expected to reach around 40% in Monday’s Crop Progress report. Forecasts remain warm and dry across most of the Corn Belt, supporting rapid planting for the 2025/26 crop.

  • Weather conditions for the Brazil corn crop have been overall very friendly, and some analyst groups have raised their production forecasts for the key second crop corn. With harvest a few weeks away, the fresh supplies will be in competition with U.S. corn bushels on the export market.

  • Weekly U.S. corn export inspections remain strong. For the week ending May 1, inspections totaled 1.608 MMT (63.3 mb), near the top of expectations. Inspections are likely to stay firm until Brazil and Argentina enter the market more aggressively.

  • Managed speculative funds have been pressuring the corn market as traders have cut their current net long positions. On Friday’s Commitment of Traders Report, managed funds reduced their net long position to 71,329 contracts, this was down 41,479 contracts from the previous week’s report as good planting forecasts and Brazil crop expectations have triggered the selling pressure.

Corn Sandwiched Between Support and Resistance
Corn futures staged a breakout in April after repeatedly defending key support near 450 throughout March. A bullish April WASDE report — driven by stronger-than-expected demand — lit the spark, propelling prices through the 50-day moving average and igniting renewed bullish momentum. As the market enters May, traders are focused on two key drivers: weather outlooks across the Corn Belt and ongoing demand signals. The February highs just above 510 now stand as the next upside target. However, early May weakness has cracked support near 470, leaving the door open for a retest of the familiar 450 level — the early 2025 low — as the next key floor.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 41,476 contracts between April 22 – April 29, bringing their total position to a net long 71,329 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • NEW: Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

    • NEW: Tomorrow, Grain Market Insider will recommend adding additional downside coverage via 1040 January put options. Be on the lookout for recommendation alerts tomorrow.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes: None.

      • The 1093 cash sales target has been cancelled, leaving only the 1114 target active.

      • A target to exit a portion of the 1100 calls if November trades to 1085 has been added. This target would hit before the 88 cents exit target, making the latter target to exit all remaining 1100 calls.

      • If you’re behind on sales, target 1063 vs November for a catch-up opportunity. If you’re in line with current recommendations, Plan A remains to make the next cash sale at 1114, while keeping an eye on 1016.75 support as part of Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures closed lower in bear spreading action, with front-month contracts leading the decline and erasing Friday’s gains. Expectations remain for another strong planting pace in Monday’s Crop Progress report. Soybean meal and oil also fell, with oil under heavier pressure following declines in crude and palm oil.

  • Weekly export inspections were soft but within trade estimates. For the week ending May 1, inspections totaled 11.9 million bushels, bringing 2024/25 cumulative inspections to 1.597 billion bushels — up 11% from last year. Mexico and China were the top destinations.

  • Malaysian palm oil stocks likely posted their biggest monthly increase since August 2023, as production recovered from recent weather disruptions. Rising inventories have added pressure to soybean oil.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 7,135 contracts which increased their net long position to 38,202 contracts. They bought 12,488 contracts of bean oil and sold 24,716 contracts of bean meal.s.

Soybean Futures Hold Above Key Support
Soybean futures plunged in early April as news of fresh tariffs sent prices tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 level — a floor that had held firm throughout March. The break triggered a wave of technical selling, but the dip was short-lived. Aggressive buying interest quickly emerged, sparking a sharp rebound that not only reclaimed the 1000 level but also vaulted futures back above key moving averages. Notably, the 200-day moving average — a persistent ceiling for nearly two years — was decisively overtaken. With momentum building, the market is now setting its sights on a potential retest of the February highs near 1080, while the reclaimed 200-day average is poised to serve as a strong layer of support during any spring setbacks.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 7,135 contracts between April 22 – April 29, bringing their total position to a net long 38,202 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across the board, with winter wheat hit hardest. Spring wheat losses were limited as dry conditions in the Northern Plains offered support. It was a broad risk-off day for commodities, with Paris milling wheat and crude oil also sharply lower, adding pressure to U.S. wheat markets.

  • Weekly wheat inspections of 11.4 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections to 727 mb, which is up 14% from last year and slightly behind the forecasted pace. Total 24/25 exports are estimated by the USDA at 820 mb, up 16% from the year prior.

  • Forecasted rains in Argentina could delay corn and soybean harvests and winter wheat planting, though the moisture will aid early crop establishment during the May–July planting window.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds selling a record 31,486 contracts of Chicago wheat, pushing their net short to 121,415 — the largest since June 2023. Across all three U.S. wheat classes, managed money is now net short a record 207,798 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • NEW: Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • Sales target has been lowered.

      • With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • NEW: Target 696 against July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • Sales target has been lowered. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 31,486 contracts between April 22 – April 29, bringing their total position to a net short 121,415 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • NEW: Target 645 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • Sales target has been lowered.

      • With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 10,645 contracts between April 22 – April 29, bringing their total position to a net short 67,269 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,532 contracts between April 22 – April 29, bringing their total position to a net short 19,114 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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5-02 End of Day: Grains Diverge Friday: Wheat Surges, Corn Slips, Soybeans Stabilize

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures saw mixed trading on Friday, as selling pressure weighed on front-month contracts while new crop futures posted gains.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended the week on a firm note, gaining strength over the last two sessions as July contracts test the top of their recent trading range.

  • Wheat: Wheat led the grain complex higher, posting double-digit gains across all three classes as prices rebounded from recent lows.

  • To see the updated 4-week drought monitor change for the U.S. as well as the 7-day rainfall forecast from the WPC for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes: None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw mixed trade again on Friday as selling pressure at the front end of the market limited gains. Good planting pace, and a strong Brazil corn crop limited the front end of the corn market, despite a still strong demand tone. For the week, July futures finished 16 ¼ cents lower as the corn market saw strong bear spreading.

  • The old crop corn demand tone remains supportive despite the weak price action this week. Export sales, export shipments, and ethanol usage are trending ahead of the USDA targets for the marketing year. The USDA may need to make adjustments to the demand on May 12 WASDE report, lowering old crop carryout even further.

  • Brazil weather forecast has been favorable for development of the key second crop corn. Analyst estimates for this Brazil crop have been increased, and harvest could limit summer global corn prices in the export market.

  • Commodity markets in general were supported by a potential easing of the trade war between the U.S. and China. Reports of both parties may be more open to talks, and China removed the tariffs on $40 billion worth of U.S. imports.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes: None. If you’re behind on sales, target 1063 vs November for a catch-up opportunity. If you’re in line with current recommendations, Plan A remains to make the next cash sales at 1093 and 1114, while keeping an eye on 1016.75 support as part of Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher with strength over the past two days to close out the week. While July beans remain in their trading range, they are at the top, and another 10-cent increase would be a breakout to the upside. There has been some talk of too much rain in some areas, but funds are likely taking profits ahead of the weekend. Soybean meal was higher while soybean oil followed crude lower.

  • Today, StoneX raised their estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop for 24/25 to 168.4 mmt from 167.5 mmt in their previous estimates. This would be a record crop at a time where China may be poised to purchase nearly all of their soybeans from Brazil, forgoing the U.S., unless tariffs are lifted.

  • China is reportedly evaluating the U.S. in order to negotiate tariffs as long as “Washington does not engage in extortion and coercion”. While both sides clearly want to negotiate a deal, neither country has seemed willing to back down. A deal being made by harvest would be crucial for soybean demand in the U.S.

  • For the week, July soybeans lost 1-1/4 cents, recovering much of their losses earlier in the week. November soybeans meanwhile lost 4-1/2 cents. July soybean meal lost $1.60 to $296.90 while July soybean oil lost 0.38 cents to 49.43 cents.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat led the charge higher in the grain complex today, posting double-digit gains across all three classes. Along with a weaker U.S. dollar and higher close for Paris milling wheat, U.S. futures also gathered strength from improving relations between the U.S. and China. These factors, along with a positive technical outlook, may have also paved the way for fund short covering today.

  • Reportedly, China may be open to trade talks with the U.S., which could include ag goods. Additionally, China may be in need of purchasing more wheat due to current dryness in some of their key growing regions. There is also talk that their stockpiles may have declined over the past five years to levels below official reports.

  • Heavy rains continue to fall across the U.S. southern Plains, which should be beneficial for crop development and relieving drought. But some areas, including central Oklahoma and northern Texas, will see flash flooding. And with more rain in the forecast for this region next week, winter wheat quality concerns may begin to arise as the crop is heading.

  • Aside from the dryness in China’s wheat belt, the Black Sea area is also said to be too dry. Furthermore, cold temperatures and frost concerns in northeastern Europe may have given wheat a boost today via additional fund short covering.

  • According to the U.S. ag attaché to Canada, their 25/26 wheat production is expected to increase by 2%. This is largely due to a bigger planted area – in March, Stats Canada projected that area would increase by 2.6% versus the year prior.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 49 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: Target 657 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • With just 49 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 49 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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5-01 End of Day: Grains Kick off May with Mixed Performance

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Continuing the mixed trend seen throughout the session, corn futures settled mixed, as selling pressure prevented front-end contracts from posting gains.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended Thursday’s session with gains, rebounding after two consecutive days of losses, driven by today’s export sales report.

  • Wheat: After losing strength during the midday session, wheat futures ended mixed, with deferred contracts closing lower, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • No Changes: No active sales targets to report.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No Changes: Still no active sales targets to report. Options targets remain active and unchanged.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • New: A new target has posted to make a fourth cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw a quiet session with mixed trade, as front-end futures experienced light selling pressure. July corn futures have declined in three of the past four sessions and are down 13 cents for the week heading into Friday’s trade.

  • USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending April 24, U.S. exporters sold 1,014 MMT 39.9 mb) of corn for the 2024-25 marketing year and 245,000 MT (9.6 mb) for 2025-26. Old crop sales were within expectations, but well off the pace for the past few weeks. Total sales for the current marketing year are up 26% from last year and corn export demand has remained strong.

  • The U.S. dollar index has formed a short-term bottom as trade war concerns have eased, with recent economic data possibly signaling a potential rate cut from the Federal Reserve. A stronger U.S. dollar can hurt U.S. competitiveness on the global stage and may limit any price rallies in corn futures.

  • Deliveries against the May corn futures have been light, (25 contract each day), which should help support prices as delivered bushels aren’t retendered back into the market and adding selling pressure. The lack of deliveries is also reflective of a relatively tight nearby corn supply.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: Continue to target a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • No Changes: If you’re behind on sales, target 1063 vs November for a catch-up opportunity. If you’re in line with current recommendations, Plan A remains to make the next cash sales at 1093 and 1114, while keeping an eye on 1016.75 support as part of Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The first sales targets may not post until May or later.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans finished the day higher, snapping a two-day losing streak, though July futures remain within a tight trading range, hovering around the 200-day moving average. The market is likely to see a breakout in either direction, with weather conditions playing a key role. Today, soybean oil helped push prices higher, buoyed by a rise in crude oil, while soybean meal posted losses.

  • Today’s Export Sales report was once again middle of the road for soybeans, within analyst trade ranges. The USDA reported an increase of 15.7 million bushels of export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 1.8 mb for 25/26. Primary destinations were to China, Germany, and the Netherlands. Last week’s export shipments of 21.6 mb were above the 11.5 mb needed each week.

  • The Argentinian soybean harvest may be yielding better than expected. Dr. Cordonnier, crop analyst, has raised his projection for the Argentina soybean crop to 50 MMT, up 1 MMT from his last projection. This is slightly above USDA projections at 49 MMT.

  • According to the EIA, soybean oil used for U.S. biofuel production fell in February to 576 million pounds. This compares to January where soybean oil for biodiesel was 654 million pounds.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a two-sided trade, wheat futures closed in a similar fashion. Light bull spreading was observed in Chicago futures, where front-month contracts finished slightly higher, while deferred contracts ended lower. Kansas City futures were mostly lower, and Minneapolis futures were mixed. Wheat futures remain oversold and in need of a correction, but today’s jump in the U.S. dollar may have limited any rally potential.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 2.6 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 8.8 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 18.1 mb, which falls below the 22.6 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 820 mb. Total shipments have reached 682 mb for 24/25, which is up 11% from last year.

  • According to the Indian Food Secretary, their government has purchased 25.6 mmt of domestic wheat for state reserves. This is far above the total purchased up to this point last year, at 20.5 mmt. In total, India is expected to purchase 31.2 mmt for their stockpiles.

  • After recent rains, both winter and spring wheat growing regions in the U.S. saw big declines in drought readings. According to the USDA, as of April 29, an estimated 23% of winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions. This is down 10% from the week before. Additionally, spring wheat acres in drought fell from 49% to 37% during the same time period.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 50 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, today presents a timely opportunity to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • New: The 704 sales target has been lowered to 702.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the July contract continues to chop around in the 560–580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: Target 657 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • With just 50 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, today presents a timely opportunity to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 50 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, today presents a timely opportunity to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

4-30 End of Day: Grains End April Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures posted modest gains Wednesday, recovering from early session lows on strong demand signals.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower for a second straight session, pressured by rapid planting and favorable weather forecasts.

  • Wheat: Wheat ended mixed as month-end positioning and global supply outlooks continue to shape trade sentiment.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the U.S. 30-day precipitation rank by climate district as well as the 14-day precipitation forecast for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • No Changes: No active sales targets to report.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No Changes: Still no active sales targets to report. Options targets remain active and unchanged.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • New: A new target has posted to make a fourth cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw some price recovery on Wednesday as the friendly demand tone helped pull prices off early session lows. Old crop contracts led the rebound, supported by solid export and ethanol demand.

  • USDA reported a second consecutive flash export sale of 120,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2024–25, highlighting robust export interest.

  • Weekly ethanol production rose to 1.040 million barrels per day, translating to 100.9 million bushels of corn use—slightly above the pace needed to meet USDA targets.

  • New corn crop prices were limited by weather forecasts as conditions for the early part of May are favorable for planting pace. The warmer and overall drier forecast should help producers maintain a strong start to the planting of the 2025-26 corn crop.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: Continue to target a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • No Changes: If you’re behind on sales, target 1063 vs November for a catch-up opportunity. If you’re in line with current recommendations, Plan A remains to make the next cash sales at 1093 and 1114, while keeping an eye on 1016.75 support as part of Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The first sales targets may not post until May or later.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the second consecutive day on continued pressure from a fast planting pace and favorable weather conditions over the next few weeks. Prices have been relatively supported as trade still looks at smaller soybean acres, which could cause a decline in the carryout, especially if China begins buying again.

  • Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower with soybean oil posting the majority of losses, as crude oil futures slumped by over 2 dollars a barrel. Malaysian palm oil futures were also lower and have posted 4 consecutively lower closes.

  • Argentina soybean harvest may be yielding better than expected. Dr. Cordonnier, crop analyst, has raised his projection for the Argentina soybean crop to 50 MMT, up 1 MMT from his last projection. This is slightly above USDA projections at 49 MMT.

  • Brazilian soybeans continue to undercut U.S. prices. FOB Brazilian beans are 30–50 cents cheaper than U.S. Gulf offerings for May–July, which could further limit U.S. export competitiveness as China maintains its preference for Brazilian supply.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures finished mixed on Tuesday, with Chicago and Minneapolis posting modest gains while Kansas City slipped slightly. End-of-month short covering helped lift the market, though KC remains weighed down by improving weather prospects in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. All three classes are technically oversold, and Chicago stochastics are nearing a buy crossover.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s 25/26 wheat crop is expected to reach 20.5 mmt. If realized, this would be the second highest total on record. The next week or so is expected to be net dry for Argentina, which should aid with corn and soybean harvest, as well as wheat planting (which typically begins in May).

  • Australia’s wheat output is forecast by the USDA FAS at 31 MMT for 2025/26, a decline of 3.1 MMT year-over-year due to lower acreage and yields. Exports are projected at 23 MMT, down from 26 MMT.

  • The European Commission reports that EU soft wheat exports have reached 17.5 mmt as of April 27; the season began on July 1. This is down 34% year over year, with 26.6 mmt shipped during the same period a year ago.

  • Northern China’s wheat belt remains under stress, with little rainfall expected in the next 10 days. China’s Water Resources Minister has reportedly issued directives to bolster drought relief efforts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • The 705.50 sales target has been lowered to 701.

      • Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • New: The 704 sales target has been lowered to 702.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the July contract continues to chop around in the 560–580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • The 667 sales target has been lowered to 657 vs July.

      • Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New: Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July KC 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Above: From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

|

4-29 End of Day: First Notice Day and Planting Progress Pressures Grains Tuesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures faced heavy selling Tuesday as rapid planting progress, and the approach of First Notice Day triggered long liquidation.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower Tuesday, weighed by a fast planting start, favorable weather, and positioning ahead of Wednesday’s First Notice Day.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures declined across all three classes Tuesday, pressured by improving U.S. winter wheat conditions, favorable planting weather for corn and soybeans, and broader grain market weakness.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the U.S. 10-day precipitation anomaly forecast, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • No New Sales Targets: No active sales targets to report.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No Changes: Still no active sales targets to report. Options targets remain active and unchanged.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • New: A new target has posted to make a fourth cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A difficult day in the corn market as strong planting pace and the impact of first notice day pressured corn futures, triggering long liquidation. May and July contracts settled at their lowest levels since April 7.

  • May futures lead the market lower losing 15 cents session of first notice day for May futures is tomorrow. Traders holding long May positions in the futures market needed to exit or risk the potential for delivery against those futures.

  • Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report showed corn planting at 24% complete, up 12% from last week and 3% ahead of the 5-year average — slightly above market expectations.

  • USDA reported a flash export sale of corn on Tuesday morning. The USDA announced that Spain purchased 120,000 MT (4.7 mb) of corn for the current marketing year, as export demand stays supportive.

  • Despite futures weakness, cash corn markets remain firm. Basis levels are strengthening as old-crop demand stays solid and farmer selling slows amid spring planting activity.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Above: Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: Continue to target a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • No Changes: If you’re behind on sales, target 1063 vs November for a catch-up opportunity. If you’re in line with current recommendations, Plan A remains to make the next cash sales at 1093 and 1114, while keeping an eye on 1016.75 support as part of Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The first sales targets may not post until May or later.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower as first notice day tomorrow and a quick start to the planting season, accompanied by good weather, have pressured the market. July futures appear technically overbought and are flashing a crossover sell signal on stochastics. Soybean meal finished higher, while soybean oil fell sharply in tandem with crude oil.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections were ok, but export demand has been fairly poor in general with China purchasing their soybeans from Brazil. However, this morning the USDA reported that 110,000 tons of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations in 24/25.

  • Yesterday’s crop progress showed that 18% of the soybean crop is planted, which compared to 3% last week and the 5-year average of 12%. In Illinois, soybean planting is further ahead than corn. The weather forecast looks conducive for planting over the next few weeks.

  • China’s port of Zhoushan is expected to see a 48% increase in soybean imports from Brazil. So far, 40 Brazilian ships carrying soybeans have already docked there in April which is up 48% from last year at this time. The port is expected to unload 700,000 mt of soybeans this month which would be a 32% jump.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Above: Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat sustained losses in all three classes today, unable to recover from improving winter wheat crop conditions. Spillover weakness from lower corn and soybean futures did not help, as planting has progressed quickly for those crops. Forecasted rains across the Southern Plains continue to weigh on prices. Despite the losses, technical indicators suggest wheat may be nearing oversold territory, hinting at a potential bottom.

  • Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report showed winter wheat conditions improved by 4% to 49% good-to-excellent. Heading progress reached 27%, slightly below last year but ahead of the five-year average. Spring wheat planting is 30% complete, with 5% emerged — both in line with typical progress.

  • Geopolitical tensions remain in focus, though wheat markets have grown less reactive. Russia announced a May 8–10 ceasefire to mark WWII Victory Day. While not expected to move markets, it could hint at broader diplomatic efforts, which would be bearish if they materialize.

  • SovEcon has increased their estimate of 24/25 Russian wheat exports by 0.2 mmt to 40.7 mmt. For reference, this still falls under the USDA’s 44 mmt projection. SovEcon increased their 25/26 export estimate as well, by 0.6 mmt to 39.7 mmt.

  • In Brazil, wheat planting has begun in Paraná with 2% of the crop seeded. Despite a 22% drop in planted area year-over-year, production is expected to rise 24% to 2.85 MMT due to strong yield expectations.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • The 705.50 sales target has been lowered to 701.

      • Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • New: The 704 sales target has been lowered to 702.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the July contract continues to chop around in the 560–580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • The 667 sales target has been lowered to 657 vs July.

      • Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

Above: Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New: Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July KC 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Above: Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather