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4-4 End of Day: China Tariff News Drives Soybeans and Wheat Lower, While Corn Ends Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn prices ended the week mixed, with the market showing resilience despite news of China’s new tariffs. While the tariff announcement initially weighed on sentiment, the impact on corn prices was limited, as China’s imports of U.S. corn have remained relatively modest.

  • Soybeans: News of the new tariffs imposed by China on all U.S. imports caused the soybean market to close sharply lower today, marking the second consecutive day of losses.

  • Wheat: Wheat prices ultimately ended the day with losses across the board, pressured by the tariff news and a sharp rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index.

  • To see the updated monthly temperature and precipitation US outlooks from the CPC as well as the 8-10 day precipitation anomaly and 10-15 day average temperature anomaly for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No New Targets: No new targets to note at this time. The corn market is holding up surprisingly well given how other markets have reacted since ‘Liberation Day’. A positive sign for higher prices ahead? Continue to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No updates to active options targets, and no new sales targets have been posted at this time. Given how well the corn market is holding up, we’re content to continue sitting tight — with only the options exit targets currently active.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • MO: The Grain Market Insider strategy is built on a foundation of early corn sales.

    • Target Hit: The move to 456 vs December ’26 triggered the current sales recommendation.

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Despite aggressive selling to close the week, the corn market remained resilient, pushing back against early-session selling pressure as concerns over the potential trade war and tariff impacts weighed on the markets. Corn futures ended the week mixed, with buying strength concentrated in the front end of the market. For the week, May corn futures closed higher, gaining 7 cents.

  • China announced a counter tariff to the recently announced U.S. tariffs on Wednesday. China will impose a 34% tariff on all U.S. good imported into China. The prospects of the growing trade war sent selling pressure across the market, and limited gains in corn.

  • The corn market stayed supported by the prospects of a tightening U.S. and global corn supply picture. Currently, U.S. export demand and ethanol usage is running ahead of USDA targets for the marketing year. Market analysts are looking to next week’s USDA WASDE report for an increase in corn demand on the balance sheet which could move corn carryout down from its current 1.540 billion bushel level for the 2024-25 marketing year.

  • Traders are closely monitoring a powerful spring storm moving through the U.S. Corn Belt. Heavy rainfall is forecast for key growing regions in the southern Corn Belt, where saturated soils could raise concerns about potential planting delays.

  • As we head into next week, traders will be closely monitoring headlines regarding the ongoing tariff situation and negotiations with other countries. The tariff package announced by President Trump on Wednesday is set to take effect on April 9, leaving a window for potential changes to the plan as tariff negotiations continue.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March Planting Intentions report now behind us, weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No updates to the active option target or the single sales target at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower for the second consecutive day after China announced overnight that they would place retaliatory tariffs of 34% on all U.S. imports. Since President Trump announced the tariffs, May soybeans have lost over 50 cents and have been the hardest hit out of the grains. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.

  • In South America, harvest conditions remain cooperative overall, but there have been some excess rains in Argentina have delayed the start of harvest as fields are too wet for tractors. Soybean production is still forecast at 49.0 mmt with yields in the central region better than expected.

  • Yesterday, OPEC announced they would increase output by 411,000 barrels per day next month, equivalent to three monthly increments. They cited healthy fundamentals and a positive market outlook. This caused crude oil futures to drop by over $5 per barrel again today, which in turn led to a decline in soybean oil prices as well. Crude has lost nearly 10 dollars a barrel over the past two days.

  • For the week, May soybeans lost 46 cents while November soybeans lost 44-3/4 cents. May soybean meal lost $10.40 to $283.10, and May soybean oil managed to gain 0.68 cents to 45.84 cents.

Soybeans Break on Tariff News
Soybean futures tested their long-standing ceiling at the 200-day moving average in early 2025—a level that has capped rallies for the past 18 months. However, as March progressed, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America sparked a sharp selloff, dragging prices lower. Despite the drop, the psychologically important 1000 level initially held as support.
That changed in April when newly announced tariffs triggered another leg down, breaking below key support. The next major support is expected near 950, while on any recovery, initial resistance returns at 1000. Above that, the 200-day moving average remains a key technical barrier that the market has struggled to overcome.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across the board as tariff headlines remained the main focus for traders, driving sell-offs in both equity and commodity markets. Additionally, a sharp rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index today contributed to a weaker outlook for the wheat complex.

  • Some regions of western Kansas saw rains over the past 24 hours, which will offer some relief from drought conditions. However, more will be needed in the long run. The forecast into next week shows warmer and drier conditions for the Southern Plains.

  • According to the USDA as of April 1, about 37% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, up from just 14% the week before. Additionally, drought in spring wheat areas also jumped during the same time period, from 21% to 39%.

  • The U.S. ag attaché for China is anticipating higher corn, rice, and wheat production in the 25/26 season. The wheat planted area is expected to remain stable but also show improved yields, leading to a bigger harvest. In related news, China has issued retaliatory tariffs on U.S. ag goods, including 15% on wheat.

  • Since their season began on July 1, Ukrainian total grain exports have reached 33 mmt, which is down 8.4% year over year. Wheat exports specifically have totaled 13.2 mmt, down close to 7% versus the same timeframe last year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No adjustments to the current strategy — with just one active sales target at 701.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No adjustments to the current strategy — with just one active sales target at 705.50.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No adjustments to the current strategy — with just one active sales target at 704.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. Support near 540 failed to hold late last week, but prices are attempting a rebound to start April. The next key resistance level is the 200-day moving average, which now serves as a major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially signaling a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted yet. The recommendation remains to sit tight as the market continues to search for a base.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No adjustments to the current strategy — with just one active sales target at 677.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 695.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to this week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 646.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to this week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2025 crop.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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4-3 End of Day: Grains Close Mixed as Traders Analyze Potential Tariff Impacts

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: The corn markets closed the trading day mixed, as traders continue to assess the tariff announcements released yesterday afternoon and determine the potential impacts on the market.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed significantly lower today following yesterday’s tariff announcements, as traders expressed concern over the heavy tariffs imposed on China and baseline tariffs placed on other countries.

  • Wheat: Wheat finished Thursday’s trade mixed, influenced by a drop in the U.S. dollar, as the tariff announcements appeared to have little impact on the wheat markets.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: The recommendation remains to sit tight yet.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: No updates to active options targets, and no new sales targets have been posted at this time.

2026 Crop: 

  • NEW ALERT – Sell a second portion of your 2026 corn crop today. This is the second sales recommendation to date.

  • Plan A: Hit the 456 target vs December ‘26 yesterday.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the session mixed to mostly lower. It was a ‘risk-off’ day across the markets as traders digested the potential impacts of President Trump’s tariff announcement made late Monday afternoon. Strong selling pressure in the soybean market, along with negative movement in outside markets, limited the corn market’s potential, despite a supportive export sales report.

  • The corn futures market “gapped” open on last night’s session on strong selling pressure. As corn prices challenged recent levels of support, value buyers stepped into the market, lifting corn prices off the lows of the session. The firm close brings some optimism to the corn market going into Friday’s trade. May corn is still 4 ¼ cents higher on the week going into Friday.

  • The strong demand tone lifted corn futures off the session lows on Thursday as the USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week of March 27, U.S. exporters posted new sales of 1.173 MMT (46.2 mb) of corn for the marketing year. This was within expectations, and current corn sales are still trending 24% higher year over year. South Korea was the largest buyer of U.S. corn last week.

  • Traders are closely monitoring a powerful spring storm moving across the U.S. Corn Belt. Heavy rainfall is forecast for key growing regions in the southern Corn Belt, where saturated soils may raise concerns about potential planting delays.

  • Following the tariff announcements, the U.S. Dollar Index dropped sharply, reaching its lowest point since October. The weaker dollar should help mitigate some of the impacts of the tariffs, supporting the corn market as the demand outlook remains positive.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March Planting Intentions report now behind us, weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: No updates to the active option target or the single sales target at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • New Target: Post-report price action activated an additional sales target at 1093 vs November. With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed sharply lower to end the day, following the steep tariffs imposed on China and other countries by President Trump yesterday afternoon. China bore the brunt of the tariffs at 34%, while other countries faced a baseline tariff of 10%. Soybeans and soybean oil declined amid concerns of trade retaliation, while soybean meal saw a slight increase.

  • Export sales were released today but were mostly overshadowed by the tariff news. Soybean sales totaled 15.1 mb for 24/25 and 0.1 mb for 25/26, which was within the average trade estimates. Primary destinations were to China, Taiwan, and Indonesia. Last week’s export shipments of 30.9 mb were above the 13.1 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

  • Earlier today, OPEC announced they would increase output by 411,000 barrels per day next month, equivalent to three monthly increments. They cited healthy fundamentals and a positive market outlook. This caused crude oil futures to drop by over $5 per barrel, which in turn led to a decline in soybean oil prices as well.

  • U.S. soybean crush for February totaled 189 million bushels, slightly above the average trade estimate of 188.7 mb. However, this was still 2.3% below last year’s February total and significantly lower than January’s crush of 212.6 mb.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Chicago and Minneapolis wheat futures closed lower, while Kansas City posted modest gains. Despite the weakness from tariffs, wheat seemed to shrug off the impact to a large extent. The U.S. Dollar Index experienced a significant drop this session, which may have contributed to wheat’s relative strength; as of this writing, the index is down 1.73 at 102.07.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 12.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 3.5 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 18.4 mb, but this was below the 22.4 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 835 mb. Total 24/25 sales commitments have reached 780 mb, which is up 13% from last year.

  • The U.S. ag attaché to India has estimated their 25/26 wheat crop at 115 mmt. If realized, this would be a result of higher planting across 32.6 million hectares, as well as optimal growing conditions. However, this would assume normal weather through harvest.

  • According to Interfax, the Russian ag ministry is said to have issued the order to distribute the remaining 2025 wheat export quota to 24 companies. The quota, in effect between February 15 and June 30, totals just 10.6 mmt. About 8.6 mmt was already shipped between February and early March.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 701 price target.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • New Target: Post-report price action prompted an adjustment to the prior 714 price target, which has been lowered to 705.50 vs July.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 704 price target.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. Support near 540 failed to hold late last week, but prices are attempting a rebound to start April. The next key resistance level is the 200-day moving average, which now serves as a major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially signaling a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The recommendation remains to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 677 price target.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 695.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to this week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 646.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to this week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2025 crop.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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4-2 End of Day: Grain Markets Close Mixed as Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Trade

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures ended lower as uncertainty around tariffs led traders to reduce risk exposure.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower again on Wednesday. The bullish acreage report from Monday has taken a backseat to tariffs as the market awaits further clarity.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures closed mixed, with Kansas City contracts posting gains while Chicago and Minneapolis futures finished lower.

  • To see the updated 5-day ECWMF precipitation forecast for the U.S. as well as the 14-day ECWMF precipitation forecast for South America, scroll down the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: The recommendation remains to sit tight yet.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: No updates to active options targets, and no new sales targets have been posted at this time.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 456 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • New Target: A second sale target for the 2026 crop has been activated at 456.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended mixed to mostly lower as selling pressure weighed on the front end of the market. Uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff announcement, set for release after Wednesday’s market close, likely led traders to reduce risk exposure.

  • The corn market remains on edge over potential retaliatory tariffs from key trading partners, which could add further downside pressure in the coming sessions.

  • Weekly ethanol production increased week over week to 312.5 million gallons/day, up 2.5 million gallons over last week. A total of 106.5 mb of corn was used last week to produce ethanol. This total was still trending slightly ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA targets for the marketing year.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for the week ending March 27, the total of new sales should range between 800,000-1.6 MMT for the week. Last week, new sales totaled 1.083 MMT of corn, within expectations. The USDA hasn’t announced a published corn sale of over 100,000 mt since March 14.

  • Traders are closely monitoring a strong spring storm moving across the U.S. Corn Belt. Heavy rainfall is forecast for key growing regions in the southern Corn Belt, where saturated soils could raise concerns about planting delays.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March Planting Intentions report now behind us, weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: No updates to the active option target or the single sales target at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • New Target: Post-report price action activated an additional sales target at 1093 vs November. With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were lower to end the day ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcement at 3 pm central this afternoon with concerns over retaliatory tariffs from China. Monday’s bullish acreage report seems to be taking a backseat until this announcement is out of the way. Soybean oil has been strong and closed higher, but soybean meal ended the day lower.

  • Optimism surrounding potential improvements in U.S. biofuel subsidy policy provided support for soybean oil and soybean futures over the past two sessions. Soybean oil futures managed to close higher today despite tariff-related uncertainty, signaling resilience. Additionally, reports suggest the U.S. may offer soybean oil to India at reduced tariff rates.

  • U.S. soybean crush for February totaled 189 million bushels, slightly above the average trade estimate of 188.7 mb. However, this was still 2.3% below last year’s February total and significantly lower than January’s crush of 212.6 mb.

  • StoneX has reduced its outlook for the Brazilian soybean crop for 24/25 to 167.5 mmt. This is below the USDA’s last estimate of 169 mmt but would still be 12% larger than last year’s crop. Primary reductions were in the southern region of Rio Grande do Sul with a cut of 6.6% as a result of dryness.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed mixed, with Kansas City contracts posting gains, while Chicago and Minneapolis futures finished lower. Storms moving across the Midwest may be limiting the upside for soft red winter (SRW) wheat by improving soil moisture, while the southwestern Plains could miss out on much-needed precipitation, lending support to hard red winter (HRW) wheat. Ongoing concerns over tariffs and trade uncertainty likely contributed to the market’s mixed performance.

  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports have reached 15.7 mmt as of March 20 since the season began on July 1. This is a 36% drop year over year, as 24.5 mmt of wheat was exported during the same time last year.

  • The Ukrainian farm producer’s union, UAC, said that wheat exports for April are expected at 1 mmt. This remains high but is down slightly from 1.1 mmt in March. The reason this is considered a high volume is due to the fact that the farm ministry has limited 24/25 wheat exports to 16.2 mmt and 13 mmt have already been shipped this season.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 701 price target.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • New Target: Post-report price action prompted an adjustment to the prior 714 price target, which has been lowered to 705.50 vs July.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 704 price target.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. Support near 540 failed to hold late last week, but prices are attempting a rebound to start April. The next key resistance level is the 200-day moving average, which now serves as a major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially signaling a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The recommendation remains to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 677 price target.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 695.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to this week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 646.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to this week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2025 crop.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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4-1 End of Day: Cautious Optimism Lifts Grains Higher Tuesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures followed soybeans higher on Tuesday, closing in positive territory, with new crop contracts leading the gains.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed higher today, gaining momentum from yesterday’s bullish Planting Intentions report. However, traders remain cautious ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcement set for tomorrow.

  • Wheat: Wheat was the weakest performer in the grain complex today but still managed to close higher across all contracts.

  • To see the updated 7-day precipitation forecast for the U.S. as well as the 30-day total precipitation ranks by climate district, scroll down the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: The recommendation remains to sit tight yet.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: No updates to active options targets, and no new sales targets have been posted at this time.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 456 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • New Target: A second sale target for the 2026 crop has been activated at 456.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices continued to climb throughout the session, supported by strength in the soybean complex and cautious optimism. Traders remain focused on the upcoming reciprocal tariffs set to take effect tomorrow, April 2nd, as well as ongoing analysis of the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, which confirmed an increase in corn acreage for the year.

  • Heavy rains are expected to impact central Oklahoma and stretch northeast through Arkansas, Kentucky, southern Illinois, and southern Indiana over the next five days, raising flood concerns that could delay spring fieldwork and planting.

  • The 5-day weather outlook for Brazil predicts warm temperatures, while the 15-day forecast indicates wet weather across most of the country, excluding the Northeast. While the wet conditions may delay the first corn harvest, they will be beneficial for the growth of second-crop corn across Brazil’s growing regions.

  • With the increase in corn acreage, ending stocks could easily surpass 2 billion bushels, with both old and new crop futures remaining strong. Corn demand continues to outpace expectations as U.S. corn remains one of the most affordable feed grains globally.

  • Brazil continues to challenge the U.S. for the title of top corn exporter, but the U.S. remains the leader, producing 1.8 times the combined output of Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March Planting Intentions report now behind us, weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: No updates to the active option target or the single sales target at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • New Target: Post-report price action activated an additional sales target at 1093 vs November. With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher today, gaining momentum from yesterday’s bullish Planting Intentions report. However, traders remain cautious ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcement set for 2 p.m. Central Time tomorrow. Uncertainty remains over potential measures, with the risk of harsh tariffs — particularly against China — potentially pressuring prices. Within the soybean complex, soybean meal edged slightly lower, while soybean oil provided support.

  • Yesterday’s Prospective Plantings report pegged 2025 soybean acreage at 83.50 million acres, just below the average trade estimate of 83.76 million and notably lower than last year’s 87.05 million acres. Meanwhile, quarterly stocks aligned closely with expectations.

  • The USDA February soybean crush is expected to come in at 188.7 million bushels according to analysts, which would be down 11.2% from the 212.5 mb crushed in January and down 2.4% from January last year at 193.3 mb.

  • Yesterday, the USDA said 793k tons of soybeans were inspected for export which compared to 827k tons last week and 515k tons a year ago at this time. Export demand has been expectedly weak as Brazil remains competitive globally.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was the weakest performer in the grain complex today but still managed to close higher across all contracts. Given the smaller-than-expected acreage figure in yesterday’s USDA report, the market’s muted reaction was somewhat surprising. Forecasted rainfall across much of the U.S. may be tempering bullish momentum.

  • Select states released updated winter wheat crop conditions after yesterday’s close. The rating in Kansas held steady at 49% good to excellent. Conditions fell 9% in Montana, 4% in Oklahoma, 1% in South Dakota, and 5% in Texas, but increased 1% in Colorado and 7% in Nebraska.

  • Some private estimates out of Australia suggest that their wheat production this year may total only 28.6 mmt due to drought. If accurate, that would be a 16% decline from last year. New South Wales and Western Australia have decent soil moisture, but it is far too dry in Victoria and South Australia.

  • Argus has reduced their estimate of the Russian 25/26 wheat production to 80.3 mmt. This is down from 81.5 mmt previously. In the breakdown, the spring wheat was cut to 24.3 mmt due to a smaller planted area, but winter wheat actually increased to 56 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 701 price target.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • New Target: Post-report price action prompted an adjustment to the prior 714 price target, which has been lowered to 705.50 vs July.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 704 price target.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. Support near 540 failed to hold late last week, but prices are attempting a rebound to start April. The next key resistance level is the 200-day moving average, which now serves as a major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially signaling a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The recommendation remains to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 677 price target.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier.

2024 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2024 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 695.

  • Plan A: Hit the 596.25 target vs the May contract today.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to today. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 646.

  • Plan A: Hit the 622.50 target vs the September contract today.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to today. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2025 crop.dations made on the 2025 crop to date – hitting 622.50 would trigger the fifth.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

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3-31 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Higher, Soybeans Lower Following USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures ended mixed with gains centered in the front months, while a larger-than-expected planting estimate limited new crop gains.

  • Soybeans: Ended lower despite a supportive planting intentions report. Soybean meal and oil also ended the day lower.

  • Wheat: Led the grain complex higher Monday with spring wheat posting the largest gains. A supportive USDA report and solid export inspections provided a boost.

  • To see the updated USDA 2025 Corn and Soybean Planted Acreage by State Maps as well as the 7-day U.S. Precipitation outlook, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any new price targets. The recommendation remains to sit tight and stay the course for now.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any new price targets. The recommendation remains to sit tight and stay the course for now.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 456 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • New Target: A second sale target for the 2026 crop has been activated at 456.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market ended mixed, with strong demand and a supportive Grain Stocks report lifting old crop prices, while a larger-than-expected planting estimate limited new crop gains.

  • The USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report projected 95.4 million acres of U.S. corn for the upcoming crop year — 965,000 acres above market expectations and 4.76 million acres more than last year. This marks the highest planted acreage since 2013-14, with the largest percentage increases seen in the Northwest and Southern regions, likely replacing soybean, spring wheat, and cotton acres.

  • March 1 quarterly grain stocks for corn came in at 8.151 billion bushels, aligning with market expectations but 200 million bushels below last year, reflecting strong demand in the first half of the marketing year.

  • The USDA released weekly export inspections on Monday morning. Export inspections remain strong at 1.614 MMT (63.6 mb) and above market expectations. Total export shipments are still trending 31% ahead of last year.

  • With Monday’s USDA reports behind the market, attention now shifts to demand, South American weather, and looming tariff issues. The April 2 tariff deadline could be the most immediate factor influencing market direction.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March Planting Intentions report now behind us, weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 32,663 contracts between March 18 – March 25, bringing their total position to a net long 74,607 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes to the current targets.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • New Target: Today’s post-report price action activated an additional sales target at 1093 vs November. With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were lower to end the day despite a friendly Planting Intentions report. Much of this report seemed to be priced in over the course of last week, and now trade will focus on the upcoming tariffs which are set to be released on Wednesday. The size of the Brazilian soybean crop also remains a concern. Both soybean meal and oil were also lower to end the day.

  • The USDA’s Prospective Plantings report estimated 2025 soybean acreage at 83.50 million acres, slightly below the average trade estimate of 83.76 million acres and significantly lower than last year’s 87.05 million acres. Acreage adjustments remain possible ahead of planting.

  • The Quarterly Grain Stocks report was largely in line with expectations, with March 1 soybean stocks at 1.910 billion bushels, slightly above the trade estimate of 1.901 billion and up from 1.845 billion a year ago.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 20,954 contracts which increased their net short position to 42,959 contracts. They sold 17,009 contracts of bean oil and 23,037 contracts of meal.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 20,954 contracts between March 18 – March 25, bringing their total position to a net short 42,959 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed higher, led by gains in spring wheat, as supportive USDA data, solid export inspections, and strength in Matif wheat provided a boost to the U.S. market.

  • The USDA estimated March 1 wheat stocks at 1.237 billion bushels, up from 1.089 billion a year ago and slightly above trade expectations. However, the acreage report was the real driver, with all wheat acreage projected at 45.4 million acres — on the low end of estimates and down from 46.1 million acres in 2024. If realized, this would be the second smallest wheat planted area since 1919.

  • In a breakdown by class, winter wheat acreage comes in at 33.3 ma, vs 33.4 ma last year. Spring wheat acres were projected at 10.0 ma, down from 10.6 ma a year ago. Finally, durum wheat acreage is estimated at 2.0 ma, compared with 2.1 ma in 2024.

  • Weekly wheat inspections reached 16 mb, bringing the total 24/25 inspections figure to 635 mb, up 16% from last year; this is slightly behind the USDA’s estimated pace. They are forecasting 24/25 exports at 835 mb, up 18% from the year prior.

  • According to their agriculture ministry, Ukraine has planted 551,800 hectares of spring grain is of last Friday – this is up 16% from the same time last year. Of that total, spring wheat has reached 79,800 hectares, up 17% year over year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes to the current 701 price target.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • New Target: Today’s post-report price action prompted an adjustment to the prior 714 price target, which has been lowered to 705.50 vs July.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes to the current 704 price target.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. Support near 540 failed to hold late last week, but prices are attempting a rebound to start April. The next key resistance level is the 200-day moving average, which now serves as a major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially signaling a trend reversal and renewed upside.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 11,919 contracts between March 18 – March 25, bringing their total position to a net short 92,587 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any new price targets. The recommendation remains to sit tight and stay the course for now.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes to the current 677 price target.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,213 contracts between March 18 – March 25, bringing their total position to a net short 45,450 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 596.25 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • New Target: Today’s post-report price action prompted an adjustment to the prior 625 price target, which has been lowered to 596.25 vs May.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 622.50 against September for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • New Target: Today’s post-report price action activated a new target at 622.50. There have been four sales recommendations made on the 2025 crop to date – hitting 622.50 would trigger the fifth.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,153 contracts between March 18 – March 25, bringing their total position to a net short 23,719 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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3-28 End of Day: Grains End the Week Mixed Ahead of Monday’s USDA Plantings Intentions Report

ByLisa Heder

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn markets ended the week’s trade mixed, with new crop prices remaining under pressure due to expectations of a significant increase in corn acreage for the upcoming crop year.

  • Soybeans: Soybean prices rebounded from early-day lows to close higher for the second consecutive session, as traders anticipate the USDA’s upcoming planting intentions report on Monday.

  • Wheat: Wheat continued its downward trend today, posting losses across all classes, as weakness was attributed to the forecasted rain in the coming days.

  • To see the updated monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks from the CPC as well as the 8-10 day precipitation anomaly and 5-10 day average temperature anomaly for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • In Holding Pattern: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year. Still no active targets going into Monday.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • All Eyes on Monday: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports — typically one of the most volatile report days of the year. The upside call exit target is out of reach for Monday, but the put exit target could come into play if the December contract locked the 30-cent limit down.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • No Targets: No new or active targets at this time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The front end of the corn market saw some short covering and potential value buying to close out Friday’s session, with corn futures ending mixed. New crop prices remained under pressure due to expectations that the USDA’s prospective planting report will forecast a significant increase in planted acres for the upcoming spring planting season. For the week, May corn futures finished 11 cents lower.

  • USDA will release the Prospective Plantings report on Monday, March 31. Expectations for corn acres are to be near 94.36 million acres, up nearly 3.8 million acres from last year. The analyst range is wide from 92.5-96.6 million acres. The prospect of an exceptionally large acreage forecast is limiting the new crop corn market in anticipation of Monday’s report. 

  • The USDA will also release the March 1 Grain Stocks report on Monday, with expectations for total corn stocks to be around 8.151 bb. This would represent a decrease of nearly 200 mb from last year’s report, although demand remained strong during the quarter. One area of uncertainty could be feed usage, as lower numbers of cattle, hogs, and poultry, along with favorable feed wheat prices, may have limited corn usage for feed during the quarter.

  • Besides Monday’s report, the grain markets will be watch and development of trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico as the deadline for the April 2 extension nears. Mexico remains the largest buyer of US corn on the export market.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline — potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Eyes Ahead: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports — historically one of the most volatile report days of the year. A limit move in soybeans is 70 cents, so in the event of a bullish surprise, the 1079.75 call target could come into play.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Countdown to USDA: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.  Both upside targets remain out of reach, even in the event of an extremely bullish report.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: It will be at least another 1–2 months before the first targets or recommendations are likely to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher for the second consecutive day, recovering from early morning lows as traders seem to be factoring in a lower acreage figure in anticipation of Monday’s Planting Intentions report. Soybean oil led the rally within the complex, driven by President Trump’s endorsement of a new biofuel policy, while soybean meal ended the day lower.

  • Estimates for the planting intentions report on Monday see soybean acreage coming in at 83.8 million acres with a range between 82.5 and 85.5 ma. This would compare to the Outlook Forum’s guess of 84.0 ma and last year’s plantings of 87.1 ma.

  • For the week, May soybeans gained 13-1/4 cents while November soybeans gained 21-1/4. The deferred months saw larger gains due to the expected decline in planted acres. May soybean meal lost $6.80 on the week finishing at $293.50 while May soybean oil gained 3.15 cents to 45.16 cents, the highest level since the end of February.

  • U.S. soybean export demand has been on a downward trend, largely due to the abundant supply of soybeans coming out of Brazil. Brazil’s soybean exports for March are expected to reach 15.6 mmt more than 2 mmt higher than the same period last year.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted losses across all classes, with Kansas City futures leading the decline. The weakness was driven by an increased precipitation forecast, particularly with the European weather model predicting significant rainfall in the U.S. Southern Plains next week.

  • According to the European Commission, 25/26 grain production in the EU is forecast at 280.7 mmt, which would be 10% above the 24/25 season. That is also about 3% over the five-year average. Soft wheat is estimated at 126.5 mmt for next season, which is 13% above the current season.

  •  The Russian deputy ag minister has stated that their nation harvested 129.8 mmt of grain in 2024, according to data from Rosstat. He went on to say that despite last year’s unfavorable weather, it was a decent harvest.

  • The average pre-report estimates for wheat acreage, based on a Dow Jones survey, comes in at 46.4 million acres. This would be up 300,000 acres from 2024. When broken down by class, it would be 33.9 ma of winter wheat, 10.5 ma of spring wheat, and 2.1 ma of durum wheat. As far as stocks go, the average pre-report estimate is 1.22 bb as of March 1 – this would be up 12% versus 2024.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Brace for Impact: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Steady as She Goes: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 704 hits. This applies to Plan B.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Strap In: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Buckle Up for Monday: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Waiting Game: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Mission – Sit Tight: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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3-27 End of Day: Soybeans Close Higher, While Corn and Wheat Trend Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Despite a positive export sales report, the corn market ended the trading day lower, continuing to face pressure from large acreage projections for the spring.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed higher today, driven by a surge in soybean oil, which provided support to the entire soy complex.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures closed mixed today as weather forecasts improved for the Black Sea region and U.S. Plains, with an increased chance of precipitation.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue targeting 480 vs May as the first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the overall strategy. There are still no new targets for an eighth sales recommendation on the 2024 crop. With the typically volatile Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports coming out next Monday, Grain Market Insider will likely hold off on new recommendations until after the reports — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue targeting 462 vs December as the first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the overall strategy for new crop corn. The approach remains well-balanced between the sales recommendations, the open 420 put options, and the open 510/550 call options. Bring on the March 31 reports!

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • No Targets: No new or active targets at this time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure persisted in the corn market despite a supportive export sales report, as large acreage projections continue to weigh on the market. May corn recorded its lowest close since December 19 during the session.

  • For the week, sellers have been in control of the corn market as the momentum has triggered follow-through selling and long liquidation. Going into Friday’s session, May corn is trading 14 ¼ cents lower on the week.

  • USDA release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending March 20, exporters reported new sales of 1.040 MMT (40.9 mb). Japan was the largest buyer of US corn for the week. Total corn export sales for the current marketing year are up 24% from last year and ahead of pace to reach the USDA target for the marketing year.

  • USDA will release the Prospective Plantings report on Monday March 31. Expectations for corn acres are to be near 94.36 million acres, up nearly 3.8 million acres from last year. The market is hearing talk of a “whisper” number that could reach as high as 96 million acres. The prospect of an exceptionally large acreage forecast is limiting the corn market in anticipation of Monday’s report.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline — potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue to target 1056 vs May as a first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week. 

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, continue targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: It will be at least another 1–2 months before the first targets or recommendations are likely to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The entire soy complex closed higher in Thursday’s trading session, breaking through nearby resistance levels. Soybean oil futures surged for the fourth consecutive day, driven by optimism surrounding biodiesel blending, which provided strong support to the soybean market.

  • U.S. soybean export demand has been on a downward trend, largely due to the abundant supply of soybeans coming out of Brazil. Brazil’s soybean exports for March are expected to reach 15.6 mmt more than 2 mmt higher than the same period last year.

  • South American weather is expected to remain favorable as the growing season wraps up and harvest continues. The soybean harvest in Brazil is now 76% complete, ahead of the average pace by 10% for this time of year.

  • U.S. soybean sales for the week ending March 20th totaled 12.4 million bushels (mb) for the 2024/2025 marketing year, along with a decrease of 800,000 mt for the 2025/2026 marketing year. Shipments reached 33.9 mb, exceeding the 14 mb required to meet the 1.826 bb target. Total soybean commitments now stand at 1.681 bb, up 13% compared to the same period last year.

  • Weather is becoming a growing concern for traders as soybean planting season approaches in the U.S., with 42% of the soybean-growing area currently facing drought conditions.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed in mixed fashion, posting small losses in Chicago futures, with even smaller gains in Kansas City. Paris milling wheat futures also closed down by 3.00 to 3.75 Euros/mt. Weakness seems to have stemmed in large part from forecasts with better chances of rain in both the Black Sea region and the US plains. Weekly export sales were also soft, adding to pressure in the market.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 3.7 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.4 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 15.8 mb, which falls below the 21.7 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA export forecast of 835 mb. Total 24/25 sales commitments have reached 768 mb which is up 12% from last year.

  • According to the USDA, as of March 25, U.S. winter wheat areas saw a significant reduction in drought conditions. Only 14% of winter wheat acres are currently experiencing drought, compared to 34% the previous week. Spring wheat acres in drought also improved during the same period, now estimated at 21%, down from 39% a week ago.

  • According to their ag ministry, Ukrainian grain exports are said to have totaled 32.2 mmt so far this season, which would be a decline of 6% from a year ago. Wheat specifically accounts for 12.9 mmt of exports, but that is down 4.4% year over year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 701 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 714 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 704 hits. This applies to Plan B.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy since yesterday.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy since yesterday.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 677 hits. This applies to Plan B. 

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 625 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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3-26 End of Day: Down Day for Grains Midweek, Ahead of Monday’s USDA Report.

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: The corn market closed lower today, continuing to face pressure due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs, a lack of fresh market news, and positioning ahead of Monday’s USDA report.

  • Soybean: Soybeans ultimately closed mixed as traders await Monday’s USDA planting intentions report.

  • Wheat: Wheat markets ended the day lower across the entire complex, led by a stronger US dollar and a lack of fresh news to provide direction.

  • To see updated 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook maps for the US, along with South Americas 30-day percentage of normal rainfall and 8-14 average precipitation scroll down to the charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue targeting 480 vs May as the first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the overall strategy. There are still no new targets for an eighth sales recommendation on the 2024 crop. With the typically volatile Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports coming out next Monday, Grain Market Insider will likely hold off on new recommendations until after the reports — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue targeting 462 vs December as the first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the overall strategy for new crop corn. The approach remains well-balanced between the sales recommendations, the open 420 put options, and the open 510/550 call options. Bring on the March 31 reports!

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • No Targets: No new or active targets at this time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Downward momentum continued to control the corn market, with prices retreating from early session highs to post moderate losses. The market faced pressure from a lack of fresh news, ongoing concerns about tariffs, and positioning ahead of Monday’s USDA’s data dump.

  • The poor price action and a weak technical close on Wednesday are likely to keep sellers active during the overnight session into Thursday. May corn closed below the 200-day moving average, marking its lowest daily close since December 20.

  • Momentum traders look to be in control of the market based on technical factors. The 20-day moving average crossed under the 100-day moving average, which is an indicator of downward momentum in the corn market.  This triggers traders to keep selling the price jumps in the market for the near-term.

  • Ethanol production fell to 1,053K bpd for the week ending March 21. This was down from 1,105K bpd from last week. Ethanol stocks continue to rise at 27.4 million barrels, up 1.3 million barrels over last year’s levels. It is estimated 100.2 mb of corn was used last week, down from 105.1 mb last week, but still slightly ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA ethanol usage targets.

  • March 31 is the USDA Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report; the market is anticipating grain stocks approximately 200 mb under last year supported by good demand and usage in the quarter. Analysts expect corn acres to jump to 94.36 million acres of corn, up approximately 3.8 million acres versus 2024.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline — potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue to target 1056 vs May as a first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week. 

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, continue targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: It will be at least another 1–2 months before the first targets or recommendations are likely to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the two front months slightly lower and deferred contracts higher in quiet trade ahead of the planting intentions report on Monday. Soybeans have been very rangebound since the beginning of the month with little fresh news. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher.

  • Estimates for the planting intentions report on the 31st say 83.8 million acres of soybeans planted with a range between 82.5 and 85.5 ma. This would compare to the Outlook Forum’s estimate of 84.0 ma and 87.1 ma last year.

  • On Monday, the US Quarterly Grain Stocks will be released as well with soybean stocks estimated to rise to 1.901 billion bushels from 1.845 bb a year ago at this time. Soybean stocks were at 3.100 billion bushels on December 1st.

  • In South America, weather conditions have improved in southern Brazil, where 41% of the soybean crop is reportedly filling pods. Argentina has also received more rain as its crop progresses toward maturity, following a relatively dry season.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Chicago futures led the wheat complex lower today, with a stronger US dollar and a lack of fresh news contributing to the weakness.

  • Discussions of a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine may have added pressure on wheat prices. The Russian government stated that certain conditions must be met first, including the restoration of its state bank’s access to the SWIFT payment system.

  • Pre-report estimates suggest that wheat plantings may be up by 700,000 acres. This is largely due to higher winter wheat seedings, with expectations that spring and durum acres will see little change versus last year. Furthermore, March 1 wheat stocks are anticipated at 1.215 bb, which is up 125 mb from a year ago.

  • According to the European Commission, since the season began on July 1, EU soft wheat exports have reached 15.5 mmt as of March 23. That is down 35% from the 23.7 mmt of exports during the same timeframe last year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 701 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 714 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 704 hits. This applies to Plan B.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy since yesterday.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy since yesterday.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 677 hits. This applies to Plan B. 

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 625 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

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3-25 End of Day: Grains Give Ground

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn prices drifted lower Tuesday, taking cues from a soft wheat market and broader caution across commodities. With big reports and tariff deadlines on the horizon next week, traders seemed content to take some risk off the table. Still, U.S. corn stays attractive on the export front.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures ended the day mixed, with pressure on nearby contracts driven by meal-led weakness and improved crop weather in Argentina, while deferred months held firm amid tightening Brazilian production estimates and anticipation of Monday’s U.S. acreage report.

  • Wheat: Wheat prices dropped for another day, feeling the weight of better U.S. and Black Sea weather, a calmer tone around Black Sea trade, and pressure from weaker corn and soybeans — even as Russian export estimates dipped and crop ratings painted a mixed picture across key U.S. states.

  • To see updated U.S. 0-100 cm Soil Moisture Percentile as well as the 7-day total precipitation map for the US and South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue targeting 480 vs May as the first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the overall strategy. There are still no new targets for an eighth sales recommendation on the 2024 crop. With the typically volatile Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports coming out next Monday, Grain Market Insider will likely hold off on new recommendations until after the reports — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue targeting 462 vs December as the first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the overall strategy for new crop corn. The approach remains well-balanced between the sales recommendations, the open 420 put options, and the open 510/550 call options. Bring on the March 31 reports!

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • No Targets: No new or active targets at this time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw selling pressure on Tuesday as a weak wheat market and an overall risk-off mindset pressured prices lower. May corn posted its lowest daily close since March 5 at the end of the session today.

  • The corn market is still seeing long liquidation possibly preparing for a couple key events next week. On March 31 is the USDA Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report, and April 2is the next deadline date for Canada and Mexico tariffs. In addition, the market is nearing the end of the month and quarter next week, and traders are likely balancing portfolios.

  • With the softening of prices, US corn will stay extremely competitive in the export market until the June/July window. This time window will bring harvested bushels from Argentina and a clearer picture of the Brazil corn crop, which could limit the demand pace.

  • Brazil second crop corn planting is nearing completion, and weather for the most part has been supportive for early season development.

  • On next Monday’s USDA Prospective Planting Report, analyst feel the corn planting could reach 94.4 million acres according to a Bloomberg Survey. This total would be up 400,000 acres from the USDA baseline projections from the February USDA Outlook Forum.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline — potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue to target 1056 vs May as a first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week. 

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, continue targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: It will be at least another 1–2 months before the first targets or recommendations are likely to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were lower to end the day and were bear spread with the front months posting the majority of the losses while new crop beans were unchanged. Meal led the complex lower as improved weather in Argentina boosted production estimates. Soybean oil was higher along with crude oil.

  • AgRural has cut its estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop to 165.9 mmt on disappointing yields in the South. This is now below the USDA’s estimate of 169 mmt. Harvest in the country is 73.84% complete which is a record pace for this time of year.

  • The USDA will release its planting intentions report on Monday, March 31, and the average trade estimate for soybean acres is 83.8 m with the range between 82.5 and 85.5 ma. The outlook forum estimated 84.0 ma, and in 2024, 87.1 ma of soybeans were planted. These numbers would be bullish if realized.

  • In South America, weather conditions have improved in southern Brazil, where 41% of the soybean crop is reportedly filling pods. Argentina has also received more rain as its crop progresses toward maturity, following a relatively dry season.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat again closed lower, pressured by lower corn and soybean futures, as well as a forecast for above normal temperatures and better precipitation chances in the US plains over the next couple weeks. Rain in the Black Sea area may have also offered some weakness as it brings relief from dry conditions.

  • According to the White House, the Russian government has agreed to safe passage of ships in the Black Sea following peace talks in Saudi Arabia. Additionally, the US will help to restore Russian ag and fertilizer exports.

  • SovEcon is said to have once again lowered their estimate of Russian wheat exports, this time by 1.5 mmt to 40.7 mmt. For reference, the USDA export projection is still sitting at 45 mmt.

  • Select states released updated winter wheat crop ratings. Top producer, Kansas, saw a 1% improvement to 49% good to excellent. There were also improvements of 3% in Texas to 31%, and 6% in Colorado to 66%. But after the recent heavy winds and dryness, there was a decline of 9% to 37% good to excellent in Oklahoma.

  • According to the European Union Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit (MARS), grains are in fairly good condition and are in better shape than last year. Additionally, soft wheat yields are estimated at 6.00 mt per hectare, which is above last year’s 5.58 and a five-year average of 5.77.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 701 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 714 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 704 hits. This applies to Plan B.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • One Change: The 717 upside target has been cancelled for now.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 677 hits. This applies to Plan B. 

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 625 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day total precipitation maps of the United States and South America from https://www.ag-wx.com/SA

|

3-24 End of Day: Grains Mixed: Corn Gains While Soybeans and Wheat Continue to Slip

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures finished the day higher, following a volatile start to the day, as concerns over drought conditions and positive export inspections provided support for the market.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures closed lower today after a quiet trading session, with concerns lingering over upcoming tariff negotiations and ongoing uncertainties.

  • Wheat: Wheat markets closed lower across the board as the US dollar strengthened, coupled with ongoing concerns over the ceasefire negotiations in the Ukraine War.

  • To see the updated 7-day GEFS precipitation forecast for South America as well as the 7-day precipitation forecast for the U.S.  scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue targeting 480 vs May as the first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the overall strategy. There are still no new targets for an eighth sales recommendation on the 2024 crop. With the typically volatile Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports coming out next Monday, Grain Market Insider will likely hold off on new recommendations until after the reports — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue targeting 462 vs December as the first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the overall strategy for new crop corn. The approach remains well-balanced between the sales recommendations, the open 420 put options, and the open 510/550 call options. Bring on the March 31 reports!

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • No Targets: No new or active targets at this time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn closed slightly higher today as export inspections revealed Mexico as the top buyer of U.S. corn, followed by Japan and South Korea.

  • Managed Money trades continue to liquidate their long position in corn. The Commitment of Traders report from last week showed managed money reducing their net long position by nearly 40,000 contracts, which has brought their net long position to 107,000 contracts, down from 400,000 just a couple of months ago.

  • Drought concerns are expected to continue supporting the market, as last week’s drought monitor highlighted worsening dry conditions across much of the Southern Plains. Limited improvements in soil moisture will likely affect crop conditions as planting advances.

  • South American weather forecasts have improved with many areas expecting to see some beneficial rainfall, which will help boost corn conditions and development.

  • USDA Attache in Mexico City sees Mexico’s corn imports from the US falling for 25/26 as higher local prices are contributing to farmers shifting more acres over to corn.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline — potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 39,271 contracts between March 11 – March 18, bringing their total position to a net long 107,270 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue to target 1056 vs May as a first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week. 

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, continue targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: It will be at least another 1–2 months before the first targets or recommendations are likely to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were slightly lower to end the day in relatively quiet trade. Concerns over upcoming potential tariffs along with the ongoing Brazilian soybean harvest have put pressure on the market. Export inspections were better than last week, which was supportive. Soybean meal led soybeans lower while soybean oil was higher.

  • Today’s export inspections were on the higher side of analyst estimates at 30.2 million bushels for the week ending March 20. This was above last week’s inspections and put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.467 bb, which is up 9% from the previous year.

  • In South America, weather conditions have improved in southern Brazil, where 41% of the soybean crop is reportedly filling pods. Argentina has also received more rain as its crop progresses toward maturity, following a relatively dry season.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 6,461 contracts increasing their net short position to 22,005 contracts. They sold 13,757 contracts of bean oil and bought 11,014 contracts of meal.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,461 contracts between March 11 – March 18, bringing their total position to a net short 22,005 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across the board, pressured by sharply lower Paris milling wheat futures and a strengthening US Dollar Index. Traders are also closely monitoring ceasefire discussions related to the Ukraine war, with talks between US and Russian officials commencing today in Saudi Arabia.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections at 17.8 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 619 mb, which is up 18% from last year. The inspection pace is steady with the USDA’s projection; exports for 24/25 are estimated at 835 mb, up 18% from the year prior.

  • IKAR has increased their estimate of 2025 Russian wheat production by 1.5 mmt to 82.5 mmt. In related news, the Russian agriculture ministry reduced their wheat export tax by 23% to 1,847 Rubles per mt – this applies from March 26 to April 1.

  • According to the USDA ag attaché to Mexico, corn imports for the 2025/26 season are expected to decline, while wheat imports are projected to rise. The increase in wheat imports is attributed to a forecasted drop in production due to low dam levels in key growing regions. Additionally, rising wheat consumption is expected to further drive the demand for imports.

  • The Ukrainian agriculture ministry has announced that the country has planted spring grains on 18% more acreage than last year, covering 250,400 hectares. Specifically, spring wheat planting is forecast to increase by 27% year-on-year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 701 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 714 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 704 hits. This applies to Plan B.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,256 contracts between March 11 – March 18, bringing their total position to a net short 80,668 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • One Change: The 717 upside target has been cancelled for now.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 677 hits. This applies to Plan B. 

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,059 contracts between March 11 – March 18, bringing their total position to a net short 46,663 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 625 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,076 contracts between March 11  – March 18, bringing their total position to a net short 22,566 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.