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5-27 End of Day: Grains Mixed to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures began the week on the defensive, with pressure from favorable crop weather and weakness in wheat weighing on new-crop contracts. However, July corn found modest support from strong weekly export shipment totals, helping limit losses in front-month trade.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed higher on the day, outperforming the broader grain complex. While overall trade was quiet, early strength was fueled by gains in palm and soybean oil. Both soybean meal and oil also finished higher, despite funds maintaining a heavy net short in the meal market.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures suffered double-digit losses across Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis, pressured by improving weather in the U.S. and Europe, a stronger U.S. dollar, and competitive global pricing—particularly from Russia. Paris milling wheat also declined, adding weight to the U.S. market.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • With July corn continuing to hold support at 440, the strategy remains to hold out for potential upside volatility opportunities.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No adjustments needed at the moment. Positioned well for growing season volatility, with a good base of sales in place and both upside and downside targets active to begin legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The 474 target will be given this week. If it hasn’t been hit by Friday’s close, another sales recommendation may be made early next week based on the calendar and timing considerations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures started the week under pressure, with July contracts finding modest support from strong export shipments. However, weakness in the wheat market and expectations for improving crop conditions weighed on new-crop contracts.

  • USDA reported corn export inspections at 1.396 MMT (55 mb) for the week ending May 22, bringing total shipments for the marketing year to 1.850 billion bushels—up 29% from a year ago. Inspections remain ahead of pace to meet USDA’s projection for the second-largest corn export program in five years.

  • USDA will release weekly crop progress on Tuesday afternoon. The expectation for corn planting is to reach 87% planted, up 9% from last week. Areas in the southern to eastern corn belt will be closely watched for progress as those regions have been behind pace due to wetness.

  • The first condition rating for the 2025/26 corn crop is also due Tuesday, with analysts expecting a Good/Excellent rating around 73% (range: 64–78%). Cooler, wetter weather across parts of the Corn Belt may weigh on early crop development by limiting growing degree day accumulation.

  • Harvest of Brazil’s second corn crop has begun, with AgRural estimating progress at 0.9%, down from 2% at this time last year. Brazil’s crop agency, CONAB, projects the safrinha crop at nearly 100 MMT as of its May estimate.

Corn Finds Support at 200-day
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April on a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures have come under renewed pressure in May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns have pushed prices back below $4.70. For now, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone and 200-day moving average have held. As planting wraps up, the market’s focus will shift quickly to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook calls for a warmer, drier pattern across the Western Corn Belt into June — potentially rekindling risk premium and setting the stage for weather-driven rallies. Initial resistance is expected near $4.70, with stronger resistance at the April highs around $4.90.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 18,234 contracts between May 13 – May 20, bringing their total position to a net short 103,210 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Still content with the 1107 target as long as 1036 support holds. If that support level is broken, the current strategy will need to be revisited and potentially adjusted.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • In about a week, another tranche of January put options may be recommended based on the calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Approaching the seasonal window where first sales targets could post at any time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher despite losses in the rest of the grain complex. Overall, soybeans traded quietly but had some early strength thanks to gains in both palm and soybean oil. Funds currently hold a record large net short position in soybean meal, but both meal and oil closed higher today.

  • Weekly export inspections for soybeans came in weak, totaling just 7.1 million bushels for the week ending May 22. Still, total inspections for the 2024/25 marketing year stand at 1.629 billion bushels—up 11% from last year.

  • Soybean acreage in India is reportedly set to shrink as farmers are looking to plant more corn and sugarcane due to higher returns. Lower oilseed output could force the world’s largest importer of edible oils to increase buying from other countries.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 25,753 contracts, which left them with a net long position of 12,654 contracts. They sold 10,123 contracts of bean oil and 4,721 contracts of meal.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 25,753 contracts between May 13 – May 20, bringing their total position to a net long 12,654 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures posted double-digit losses across all three U.S. exchanges to start the week, pressured by both global and domestic developments. Paris milling wheat futures also closed 4–5 euros lower, dragging on U.S. prices. A firmer U.S. dollar added headwinds for U.S. wheat on the export market.

  • Weekend rains across the U.S. southern and western Plains, along with scattered showers in Europe, eased immediate crop concerns. Heavier rainfall is expected next week in drier regions of France, Germany, and the UK, which further pressured futures.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 20.6 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 782 mb, up 16% from last year. The inspections pace is steady with the USDA’s estimate – total 24/25 exports are projected at 820 mb, up 16% from the year prior.

  • China’s National Meteorological Center is predicting rainfall through the early part of next week for key wheat growing regions, including Henan and Shaanxi. This should help to ease drought conditions there. Henan province recently issued weather alerts due to excessive heat, which was a threat to their crops.

  • Australian customs data indicates that they exported only 546,000 mt of wheat to China during the October – March timeframe, due to a lack of Chinese demand. This compares with 2.9 mmt in the first half of the 23/24 season and 4.4 mmt for the same period of the 22/23 season. This could significantly increase Australia’s wheat stocks, with some estimates as high as 8 mmt. For reference, the five-year average for their end of season wheat stocks is 3.3 mmt.

  • According to SovEcon, Russian spot wheat export values range from $248-$250 per mt FOB. And as reported by IKAR, Russian export values July onward are around $225 per mt FOB, which is down $2 from last week. Competition from Russia has been weighing on wheat prices globally. Furthermore, Interfax has stated that the 2025 Russian grain harvest is likely to exceed last year’s, which would also be bearish to prices.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • While 699.25 is still a long way off, it’s tough to justify adjusting it lower at this point — historically, when volatility shows up this time of year, it can be significant.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 633.50 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 633.50 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 18,002 contracts between May 13 – May 20, bringing their total position to a net short 108,893 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after June 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 637 contracts between May 13– May 20, bringing their total position to a net short 80,162 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

    • Note: KC options are being used due to the strong correlation between KC and Minneapolis futures prices, as well as the greater liquidity found in the KC options market.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with KC 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above KC 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,621 contracts between May 13 – May 20, bringing their total position to a net short 34,140 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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5-23 End of Day: Grains Hold Weekly Gains Amid Trade Tensions and Weather Watch

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Monday, May 26, in Observance of Memorial Day

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended the week on a softer note but still managed to post their first weekly gain in six weeks.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed lower Friday, pressured alongside the broader grain complex after former President Trump’s renewed tariff threats against the EU rattled markets.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended the week mixed, holding relatively firm amid broader grain market pressure.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • With July corn continuing to hold support at 440, the strategy remains to hold out for potential upside volatility opportunities.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No adjustments needed at the moment. Positioned well for growing season volatility, with a good base of sales in place and both upside and downside targets active to begin legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The 474 target will be given another week or two. If it hasn’t been hit by then, another sales recommendation may be made based on the calendar and timing considerations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the week on a softer note, weighed down by renewed trade tensions with the European Union and end-of-week profit-taking. Despite Friday’s pullback, July corn still closed 16 cents higher on the week—its first weekly gain after five straight weeks of losses.

  • The corn market had to fight off early session selling pressure on Friday as President Trump made comments about the disappointing pace of trade negotiations with the European Union. The administration is planning a 50% tariff on the EU starting on June 1. The headline pressured the entire market complex to start the day.

  • June corn options expired Friday, contributing to intraday volatility. Markets often gravitate toward areas of heavy open interest during expiration, and this month’s concentration around the $4.55–$4.60 strikes added technical pressure.

  • Looking ahead, early June weather is set to take center stage. The National Weather Service’s 8–14-day outlook shows a hot and dry pattern across much of the Corn Belt. If this trend continues, concerns over early-season dryness could support prices heading into the summer.

Corn Finds Support at 200-day
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April on a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures have come under renewed pressure in May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns have pushed prices back below $4.70. For now, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone and 200-day moving average have held. As planting wraps up, the market’s focus will shift quickly to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook calls for a warmer, drier pattern across the Western Corn Belt into June — potentially rekindling risk premium and setting the stage for weather-driven rallies. Initial resistance is expected near $4.70, with stronger resistance at the April highs around $4.90.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Still content with the 1107 target as long as 1036 support holds. If that support level is broken, the current strategy will need to be revisited and potentially adjusted.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • In about a week, another tranche of January put options may be recommended based on the calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Approaching the seasonal window where first sales targets could post at any time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures closed lower Friday, pressured alongside the broader grain complex after former President Trump’s renewed tariff threats against the EU rattled markets. Despite the pullback, soybeans still notched weekly gains. Soybean meal ended the day lower, while soybean oil finished higher amid continued volatility.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange released its weekly crop report which did not have an updated production number, it was kept at 50 mmt despite the recent flooding, but the bean crop is now said to be 74.3% harvested.

  • For the week, July soybeans gained 10-1/4 cents while November soybeans gained 15 cents. July soybean meal gained $4.30 on the week to end at $296.20, and July soybean oil gained 0.42 cents at 49.35 cents. Trade in soybean oil has been volatile due to rumors floating back and forth about potential biodiesel blending obligations.

  • Managed Money remains net short in soybeans, with hedge funds holding a 38,000-contract short as of last week’s CFTC report. While this week’s strength likely trimmed that position, a shift to net long will likely require a larger bullish catalyst. Global supply burdens and persistent demand concerns continue to cap upside potential into the summer.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures had another mixed close, posting small losses in Chicago and Kansas City, but modest gains in Minneapolis. Relative to corn and soybeans, the wheat close appears strong. With little other fresh news to drive the market, talk that President Trump may enact 50% tariffs on the EU beginning June 1 weighed on both equity and grain markets today.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, wheat planting in Argentina is only 3.4% complete. This compares with 13% at this time last year, and a five-year average pace of 7%. Recent heavy rains and flooding have been the cause of slow soybean and corn harvests, in addition to the slow wheat sowing pace.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange is estimating Argentina’s wheat crop could exceed 21 mmt. If realized, this would be the second largest crop on record. For reference, the USDA is estimating the Argentine crop at 20 mmt, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is projecting a 20.5 mmt crop.

  • In the U.S., drought conditions continue to ease. Just 21% of winter wheat acres are experiencing drought, down 2% from last week, while spring wheat drought coverage dropped sharply from 38% to 29%.

  • On a bearish note, the International Grains Council has increased their estimate of global 25/26 grain stockpiles by 5 mmt from last month, to 585 mmt. This is in part due to an increased wheat stockpile estimate, going from 260 mmt in April to 262 mmt this month.

  • Since their export season began on July 1, Ukrainian grain exports have now reached 37.6 mmt according to their agriculture ministry. For the same time period, this is a reduction of about 17% year over year. Of the total, wheat exports account for 14.6 mmt, which is down 14% year over year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • While 699.25 is still a long way off, it’s tough to justify adjusting it lower at this point — historically, when volatility shows up this time of year, it can be significant.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 633.50 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 633.50 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after June 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

    • Note: KC options are being used due to the strong correlation between KC and Minneapolis futures prices, as well as the greater liquidity found in the KC options market.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with KC 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above KC 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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5-22 End of Day: Grains Mixed as Soybeans Extend Rally, Corn Steady, Wheat Eases

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Monday, May 26, in Observance of Memorial Day

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures saw quiet trade on Thursday. July contracts posted modest gains, buoyed by solid export sales, while deferred contracts faced light profit-taking.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: The July soybean contract closed higher again Thursday, extending its winning streak to four days.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed mixed Thursday, with Chicago and Minneapolis posting losses, while Kansas City managed a marginal gain in the deferred months.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Prepped for growing season volatility with upside and downside targets to start legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw quiet trade on Thursday. July contracts posted modest gains, buoyed by solid export sales, while deferred contracts faced light profit-taking. As of Thursday’s close, December corn futures are up 17 ¾ cents for the week heading into Friday’s session and the Memorial Day weekend.

  • With the recent strong price move, the corn market had entered technically overbought territory. Some short-term correction and position-squaring emerged as traders looked to reduce risk ahead of the three-day weekend.

  • USDA’s weekly export report showed new corn sales of 1.190 MMT (46.9 mb) for 2023-24 and 218,400 MT (8.6 mb) for 2024-25 — within trade expectations and supportive for nearby contracts. Japan was the top buyer for the week.

  • Total U.S. corn export commitments now stand at 2.491 billion bushels, up 28% from last year and just 109 mb shy of the USDA’s full-year projection of 2.6 bb. With the marketing year ending August 30, upward revisions to the USDA’s export forecast and lower ending stocks are becoming more likely.

  • Despite recent rains, roughly 22% of corn-growing areas remain under drought conditions. NOAAs extended 8–14-day outlook calls for above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall across much of the Corn Belt — conditions that may support prices if dryness persists into June.

Corn Finds Support at 200-day
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April on a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures have come under renewed pressure in May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns have pushed prices back below $4.70. For now, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone and 200-day moving average have held. As planting wraps up, the market’s focus will shift quickly to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook calls for a warmer, drier pattern across the Western Corn Belt into June — potentially rekindling risk premium and setting the stage for weather-driven rallies. Initial resistance is expected near $4.70, with stronger resistance at the April highs around $4.90.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • Another tranche of January put options may be recommended in a couple weeks.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The July soybean contract closed higher again Thursday, extending its winning streak to four days. Prices have consistently held support between $10.45 and $10.50, anchored by the 100-day moving average. A drier 30-day forecast across key U.S. growing regions continues to fuel concerns of a hot, dry summer — adding a weather premium to the market.

  • Soybean meal ended the day higher, but soybean oil was once again dragged lower by potentially bearish biofuel rumors. Soybean oil gapped down overnight after a rumor circulated that the White House could soon grant a large backlog of Small Refinery Exemptions which would decrease blending and bean oil demand.

  • Today’s export sales were within expectations for soybeans with an increase of 11.3 million bushels reported for 24/25 and an increase of 0.6 mb for 25/26. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Taiwan, and Indonesia. Last week’s export shipments of 9.2 mb were below the 12.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations.

  • The Brazilian soybean market saw its cash market premiums rise with strong buying activity by China. China is estimated to have bought 100 cargoes of soybeans in the month of May with the majority coming from Brazil, including purchase into new crop Brazil soybeans for next spring. The strong Chinese demand has lifted global soybean prices, helping support the global price of soybeans.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed mixed Thursday, with Chicago and Minneapolis posting losses, while Kansas City managed a marginal gain. A lower Euro failed to support Paris (Matif) wheat, which closed broadly lower — adding pressure to U.S. futures alongside a firmer U.S. dollar. Additionally, profit-taking after recent gains and uncompetitive U.S. Gulf wheat offers — reportedly $10/mt above Russian FOB levels — contributed to softer trade.

  • The USDA reported a decrease of 0.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 32.4 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 16.1 mb fell under the 28.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 820 mb. Total 24/25 shipments have reached 730 mb, up 12% from last year.

  • A wheat crop tour in Illinois reported an average day-one yield of 106 bpa — well above last year’s estimate of 104 bpa and far exceeding the USDA’s current 85 bpa projection. However, excessive rainfall across southern Illinois and the broader Midwest is raising concerns over potential disease pressure that could threaten final yields.

  • Despite experiencing the second-warmest February in over a century, India is on track to harvest a record wheat crop. USDA pegs production at 117 mmt, which would push stockpiles to a four-year high. As India typically consumes what it produces, this surplus offers limited trade implications but contributes to the global supply glut, adding bearish sentiment to world prices.

  • According to Interfax, Russia exported 1.214 mmt of wheat from May 1 to May 20. Compared with the 3.319 mmt shipped during the same timeframe last year, this represents a 63% decline year over year. Reportedly, only 18 companies shipped wheat this May, versus 77 companies in May of last year. Furthermore, total May 2025 shipments are expected to reach 1.8 mmt, which would be 2.6 mmt under the five-year average.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 633.50 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 633.50 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with KC 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above KC 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Other Charts / Weather

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5-21 End of Day: Grain Complex Firms on Weather Risks and Technical Strength

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures extended their rally on Wednesday, marking a third straight day of gains as continued weakness in the U.S. dollar provided additional support.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures logged a third consecutive day of gains, driven primarily by extended forecasts calling for drier conditions across key U.S. growing regions.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed higher for another session, fueled by continued short covering and supportive global cues.

  • To see updated 7-day accumulated precipitation map and U.S. weather outlooks maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Prepped for growing season volatility with upside and downside targets to start legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures extended their rally Wednesday, closing higher for the third consecutive day. A weaker U.S. dollar and broad-based strength across the grain complex contributed to the gains, reinforcing bullish momentum.

  • Rain fell again over much of the Corn Belt on Wednesday, providing some key moisture in areas that have been in need of rain. While moisture is welcomed in the western Corn Belt, the eastern region remains too wet. With the calendar moving past optimal planting windows, the market is turning its attention to the final 20% of acres. 

  • Ethanol production rebounded to 305 million gallons last week, up from 292 MG and up 1.7% over last year.  A total of 103 mb was used in ethanol production last week, which is trending slightly below the USDA usage target for the marketing year.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending May 15, total new corn sales are expected to range from 700,000 – 1.6 MMT for old crop and 50,000 – 5000,000 MT for new crop. Last week’s old crop sales were 1.677 MMT, and toward the top end of expectation.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index slipped to a two-week low, adding support to grain markets. Continued dollar weakness could provide further tailwinds for exports.

Corn Finds Support at 200-day
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April on a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures have come under renewed pressure in May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns have pushed prices back below $4.70. For now, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone and 200-day moving average have held. As planting wraps up, the market’s focus will shift quickly to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook calls for a warmer, drier pattern across the Western Corn Belt into June — potentially rekindling risk premium and setting the stage for weather-driven rallies. Initial resistance is expected near $4.70, with stronger resistance at the April highs around $4.90.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • Another tranche of January put options may be recommended in a couple weeks.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the third consecutive day breaking out of their previous three-day narrow trading range. Both soybean meal and oil traded higher which was supportive, but extended forecasts showing dry weather were likely the larger bullish factor supporting the entire grain complex.

  • Brazilian soybean market saw it cash market premiums rise with strong buying activity by China. China is estimated to have bought 100 cargoes of soybeans in the month of May with the majority coming from Brazil, including purchase into new crop Brazil soybeans for next spring. The strong Chinese demand has lifted global soybean prices, helping support the global price of soybeans.

  • While U.S. planting progress is ahead of average, recent widespread rains across the Corn Belt may temporarily delay fieldwork. Looking ahead, the 7–14-day forecast points to below-normal precipitation west of Ohio, raising early-season dryness concerns.

  • In Argentina, there was severe flooding over the weekend with rainfall totaling 6 to 10 inches in some areas north of Buenos Aires. The 24/25 bean crop was estimated at 50 mmt previously and was 65% harvested last week. The catastrophic flooding will likely bring production lower.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed higher for another session, fueled by continued short covering and supportive global cues. Chicago open interest fell by about 4,000 contracts, while speculative traders were estimated buyers of 8,000—indicating short liquidation. Paris milling wheat futures added to gains, breaking key moving average resistance despite a firmer Euro. A weaker U.S. Dollar also provided a lift to the U.S. wheat complex.

  • China’s east-central growing region is forecast have scattered rains and cooler temperatures later this week, which should offer some relief from the recent heat, drought, and high winds. Nevertheless, some damage may have already been done, which could ultimately lead to increased Chinese wheat imports.

  • Argentina announced an extension of its reduced wheat export tax rate (9.5%) through March 31, 2026. The move is intended to support competitiveness but does not apply to corn or soybeans, narrowing the export incentive gap.

  • Traders will be keeping an eye on weather in the Black Sea region. Recent frosts in the Rostov region of Russia led to a declaration of a state of emergency, though it is worth noting that the affected area is only about 10% of the size of that which was impacted last year. Looking forward, the month of June is expected to be warm and dry in the Black Sea, which would also be unfavorable for the wheat crop. In related news, SovEcon is estimating Russian 2025 wheat production at 81 mmt, which is under both last year’s 82.6 mmt crop and the USDA’s estimate of 83 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 633.50 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 633.50 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with KC 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above KC 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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5-20 End of Day: Grains Gain Ground: Wheat Leads Rally as Crop Concerns Mount

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures posted gains for a second consecutive session, supported by strength in the wheat market and growing concerns about late-season planting delays.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended higher Tuesday after a mixed session. July contracts continue to find support at the 100- and 200-day moving averages but have struggled to recover meaningfully from last week’s decline.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed sharply higher Tuesday following a decline in U.S. winter wheat crop conditions in the latest USDA report.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlooks maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B downside stop could possibly be added within a day or two. The front-month contract hasn’t closed below 440 since mid-December, and the July contract is currently testing that area. If support fails to hold here, the next downside risk could be a move toward 400.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Prepped for growing season volatility with upside and downside targets to start legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures posted gains for a second consecutive session, supported by strength in the wheat market and growing concerns about late-season planting delays. July corn has now traded higher in four of the past five sessions and is nearly 20 cents above recent lows.

  • Technical momentum is building as July futures closed above the key $4.50 level on Tuesday, while December corn pushed through its 200-day moving average. These bullish signals could trigger additional short covering.

  • USDA estimated corn planting at 78% complete, up 16% from last week. This was slightly below expectations, but 15% higher than last year and 5% above the 5-year average. Most states are ahead of schedule compared to the 5-year average, but the states of Illinois, Ohio, and Kentucky are behind pace due to wet weather in those states.

  • Rain covered much of the Corn Belt on Tuesday, with more expected throughout the week. While moisture is welcomed in the western Corn Belt, the eastern region remains too wet. With the calendar moving past optimal planting windows, the market is turning its attention to the final 20% of acres.

  • Attention now shifts to summer weather, as NOAA’s long-range forecasts call for a drier pattern and above-average temperatures across much of the Corn Belt — especially in the west, where dryness is already a concern.

Corn Futures Slide Back Toward 2024 Lows as Support Levels Erode
Corn futures bounced in April off the key $4.50 level, boosted by a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average. But May brought selling pressure, as strong planting progress and demand worries dragged prices back below $4.70. The $4.45–$4.50 zone has again held firm, but with momentum weakening, traders are watching to see if this critical support can withstand further pressure.

Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • Another tranche of January put options may be recommended in a couple weeks.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after a day of mixed trade. July futures have been bouncing higher off support at the 100 and 200-day moving averages but have not been able to rally following last week’s sell-off. While planting pace has been quick, recent rains may slow progress. Both soybean meal and oil were higher to end the day.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean planting at 66%, slightly above trade expectations. This compares to 48% last week and a 5-year average of 53%. Emergence was reported at 34%, ahead of last week’s 17% and the average of 23% for this time of year.

  • While planting progress remains strong overall, recent widespread rains across the Corn Belt could slow fieldwork. Looking ahead, the 7–14-day forecast shows below-normal precipitation across much of the Corn Belt west of Ohio, raising concerns about early-season dryness.

  • In Argentina, there was severe flooding over the weekend with rainfall totaling 6 to 10 inches in some areas north of Buenos Aires. The 24/25 bean crop was estimated at 50 mmt previously, but the catastrophic flooding will likely bring that number lower.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed sharply higher Tuesday following a decline in U.S. winter wheat crop conditions in the latest USDA report. Additional heavy rainfall across parts of the already-saturated Southern Midwest raised further concerns about crop quality and may have triggered short covering. A strong rally in Paris milling wheat also supported U.S. prices, with the September Matif contract closing at its highest level in more than two weeks.

  • Winter wheat conditions dropped 2 points to 52% good to excellent, falling short of market expectations for steady ratings. Roughly 64% of the crop is now headed, ahead of the 5-year average of 58% but behind last year’s 67%. For spring wheat, planting progress reached 82%, well ahead of the 5-year average of 65% and last year’s 76%. Emergence stands at 45%, also ahead of normal.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values for June delivery remained unchanged last week at $247 per mt on FOB basis. Both IKAR and SovEcon are similar in their estimates of Russia’s May wheat exports, with the former anticipating between 1.8-2.0 mmt and the latter sitting at 1.8 mmt.

  • The USDA estimates that Brazil’s wheat planted area for 25/26 may be down 8.5% to 2.8 million hectares, when compared with the season prior. However, production is expected to be up 1.4% to 8 mmt, while their consumption is forecast to remain steady at 12.1 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Spring wheat percent emerged (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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5-19 End of Day: Grains Rebound to Start the Week: Corn Recovers, Soybeans Firm, Spring Wheat Surges on Frost Risk

ByLisa Heder

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures rebounded off early session lows Monday as bargain buying and continued strong export demand helped erase most of Friday’s losses.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended higher Monday in a quiet session, with new crop contracts leading gains.

  • 🌾 Wheat: U.S. wheat futures closed higher across all classes Monday, led by double-digit gains in Minneapolis spring wheat. Reports of frost in the Northern Plains over the weekend, with more cold in the forecast, helped support spring wheat.

  • To see the updated U.S. weather outlooks maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B downside stop could possibly be added within a day or two. The front-month contract hasn’t closed below 440 since mid-December, and the July contract is currently testing that area. If support fails to hold here, the next downside risk could be a move toward 400.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Prepped for growing season volatility with upside and downside targets to start legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Buyers stepped into the corn market, lifting prices off early session lows as value buying and continued strong demand story brought support to the corn market, erasing most of Friday’s losses.

  • USDA’s weekly export inspections showed 1.719 MMT (67.7 mb) of corn shipped for the week ending May 12 — near the top of analyst expectations. Total shipments are now 29% ahead of last year and tracking roughly 150 mb above the pace needed to hit USDA’s 2024–25 export forecast.

  • Managed money has moved into a short position in the corn market as favorable weather, and prospects on a large Brazil corn crop have pressured the market. In last week’s commitment of traders’ report, funds were net sellers of nearly 100,000 corn contracts and held a net short position of 84,976 corn contracts. With additional selling pressure into the end of the week, the estimate reflects that the funds are approximately net short 100,000 contracts going into today’s session.

  • Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report is expected to show corn planting nearing 80% complete. Illinois — a key producer — lagged 6% behind the five-year average last week. Continued delays there could spark yield concerns and weigh on national production expectations.

Corn Futures Slide Back Toward 2024 Lows as Support Levels Erode
Corn futures bounced in April off the key $4.50 level, boosted by a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average. But May brought selling pressure, as strong planting progress and demand worries dragged prices back below $4.70. The $4.45–$4.50 zone has again held firm, but with momentum weakening, traders are watching to see if this critical support can withstand further pressure.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 98,869 contracts between May 6 – May 13, bringing their total position to a net short 84,976 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B 1016.75 stop price has been adjusted higher to 1018.50.

      • Another tranche of January put options may be recommended in a couple weeks.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were higher to end the day in relatively quiet trade that saw new crop contracts posting the larger gains. Futures once again found support at the 100 and 200-day moving averages which have converged and are providing support. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil led soybeans higher.

  • This morning, private exporters reported sales of 145,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to the Philippines during marketing year 2024/2025. Export sales have been slow overall for soybeans, but India and other countries are reportedly looking to discuss trade deals with the U.S.which could boost demand.

  • Today’s export inspections were below analyst expectations for soybeans with inspections totaling 8.0 million bushels for the week ending May 15. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.622 billion bushels, which is up 11% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating total exports for 24/25 up 8% from the previous year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans as of May 13 by 16,537 contracts which increased their net long position to 38,407 contracts. They were buyers of bean oil by 10,694 contracts and buyers of meal by 712 contracts.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 16,537 contracts between May 6 – May 13, bringing their total position to a net long 38,407 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • U.S. wheat futures closed higher across all classes Monday, led by double-digit gains in Minneapolis spring wheat. Reports of frost in the Northern Plains over the weekend, with more cold in the forecast, helped support spring wheat. A weaker U.S. Dollar—pressured by Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating—also boosted commodity prices.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 15.6 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 761 mb, which is up 16% from last year. Inspections are running slightly ahead of the USDA’s estimates – they are projecting 24/25 exports at 800 mb, up 13% from last year.

  • According to their customs data, China’s wheat imports have fallen 61.2% year over year, to 760,000 mt. Corn and soybean imports are also down sharply. However, wheat growing regions in central China are under stress due to dry conditions. This could mean they will need to increase their wheat imports down the road, which would be bullish.  

  • LSEG ag research has estimated global 25/26 wheat production at 794.99 mmt, which would be down 0.3% from last season if realized. Despite the expectation for declines to the wheat crop in the US, Black Sea region, Australia, and Kazakhstan, this may be largely offset by gains in India, Canada, and Europe. Even China is expected by LSEG to have a bigger crop, in spite of current weather issues.

  • Over the weekend, severe flooding in Argentina caused evacuations in the northern part of the Buenos Aires province. Rainfall totals were reported between 6-10 inches or more in a very short period of time. This flooding may cause delays to soybean harvest, as well as planting of their wheat crop.

  • The German national statistics agency has projected that their nation’s winter wheat planted area is up 12.2% from a year ago, to 2.78 million hectares. This is down 0.1% from their December estimate. Germany is the second biggest wheat producer in the EU, with France being number one.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 13,161 contracts between May 6 – May 13, bringing their total position to a net short 126,895 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,393 contracts between May 6 – May 13, bringing their total position to a net short 27,519 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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5-16 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Slip, Soybeans Mixed to End the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Selling pressure returned to the corn market on Friday, capping off a fifth consecutive negative week for July futures.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the week mixed, with front-month contracts slightly lower while new crop contracts posted gains in bear spreading action.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes today, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker Paris milling wheat futures.

  • To see the updated 7-day National Blend of Models precipitation forecast in inches as well as the 5–10-day GEFS temperature anomalies for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B downside stop could possibly be added within a day or two. The front-month contract hasn’t closed below 440 since mid-December, and the July contract is currently testing that area. If support fails to hold here, the next downside risk could be a move toward 400.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Prepped for growing season volatility with upside and downside targets to start legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure returned to the corn market on Friday, capping off a negative week. December corn posted a new low in the current price move, while July corn reversed lower after once again failing to hold above the 450 level. The weak technical close leaves the door open for additional selling pressure to start next week. For the week, July corn ended 6 ¼ cents lower, marking the fifth consecutive weekly loss.

  • Renewed discussions of a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict weighed on both corn and wheat futures. Speculation around a possible ceasefire raised concerns about increased grain exports and competition from the Black Sea region.

  • Some beneficial rainfall fell over the northern parts of the Corn Belt on Thursday. Amounts and coverage in some areas was disappointing, but rainfall is forecasted again into the weekend. That potential rainfall and cooler temperatures pressured the corn market.

  • Rumors of a reduced renewable fuel blending mandate added longer-term demand concerns for corn-based ethanol. While the market had been expecting 2026 blending levels near 5.275 billion gallons, reports now suggest a possible reduction to 4.650 billion gallons. Although still above last year’s levels, the number falls short of trade expectations and has pressured futures.

  • June corn options expired on Friday, introducing additional volatility. Expiration tends to steer prices toward areas of heavy open interest and can trigger either buying or selling depending on price action relative to strike levels.

Corn Back Near Calendar Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 445-450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B 1016.75 stop price has been adjusted higher to 1018.50.

      • Thinking sub-1000 vs November to potentially begin legging out of recently recommended 1040 January put options. More details to come once an official target is posted.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the week with the front months slightly lower and new crop contracts ending higher in bear spreading action. July soybeans found support after yesterday’s sharp sell-off at the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which have converged at $10.47. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower.

  • Soybean oil has been the downside leader in the soy complex over the past two sessions. Pressure stemmed from comments by EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, who confirmed that the agency will begin a new rulemaking process over the coming months to revise renewable volume obligations (RVOs). The delay has sparked concern that final biofuel mandates could come in below the expected 4.6 billion gallons, though that remains speculative.

  • NOPA soybean crush for the month of April was shown at 190.226 million bushels, which was down 2.2% from March at 194.51 mb but was above trade estimates. Crush was well above last year at this time of 169.43 mb in April.

  • For the week, July soybeans lost 1-3/4 cents at $10.50 while November soybeans gained 5 cents to $10.35-1/2. July soybean meal lost $2.20 to $291.90 and July soybean oil actually gained 0.36 cents to finish the week at 48.93 cents.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes today, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker Paris milling wheat (Matif) futures. Sentiment was also influenced by reports of potential progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Ukrainian President Zelensky told President Trump he was prepared to take swift steps toward peace, as negotiations continue in Turkey. A resolution could eventually boost wheat production and exports from the Black Sea region, applying additional pressure to global prices.

  • Yesterday the wheat crop tour in Kansas concluded, with the Wheat Quality Council finding a final average yield of 53 bpa, which compares to the USDA’s estimate of 50 bpa, and is the highest since 2021. However, they also estimated total production at 338.5 mb versus the USDA at 345 mb. This would seem to suggest that they are expecting a lower amount of harvested acreage.

  • According to the USDA, as of May 13, an estimated 23% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, which is up 1% from the previous week and down 2% from the same time last year. Spring wheat area in drought also increased by 1% from a week ago to 38%. This is far above last year’s 14% drought reading. But with rains in the northern Plains, spring wheat drought conditions may ease next in next week’s estimate.

  • FranceAgriMer has estimated 73% of the French soft wheat crop is in good or very good condition as of May 12. This is down slightly from a week ago, but according to the USDA, areas of northern Europe are too dry – more rain will be needed for development of winter crops.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 688 target was lowered to 675.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast

|

5-15 End of Day: Soybeans Slammed Lower on RFS Headline; Corn Ends Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures finished mixed on the day. Strong weekly export sales supported old crop contracts, but overall gains were limited by concerns over biofuel demand and favorable weather forecasts.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day sharply lower, driven by a limit-down move in soybean oil. The pressure came from bearish news tied to the Renewable Fuel Standard and renewable volume obligations.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended higher across all three classes today, showing relative strength despite heavy pressure in the soy complex.

  • To see the updated drought monitor and the updated monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B downside stop could be added within the next few trading days. The front-month contract hasn’t closed below 440 since mid-December, and the July contract is currently testing that area. If support fails to hold here, the next downside risk could be a move toward 400.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Prepped for growing season volatility with upside and downside targets to start legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished mixed on the day. Strong weekly export sales supported old crop contracts, but overall gains were limited by concerns over biofuel demand and favorable weather forecasts.

  • The USDA released its weekly export sales report on Thursday morning. For the week ending May 8, new sales totaled 1.677 million metric tons (66 million bushels) for old crop and 509,000 metric tons (20 million bushels) for new crop. Old crop sales exceeded analysts’ expectations, with South Korea emerging as the largest buyer last week.

  • An announcement from the EPA on Thursday added pressure to the grain markets. Instead of a near-term update on blending volumes, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin stated that the agency will complete a new rulemaking process “over the next few months.” The delay disappointed traders hoping for clarity on Renewable Fuel Standard volumes and triggered a limit-down move in soybean oil. The spillover weighed on new crop corn futures, reflecting concerns about long-term ethanol demand.

  • Planting conditions across the U.S. remain favorable, with most areas seeing an open window for fieldwork. Forecasts show increasing chances for beneficial precipitation across key growing regions next week, supporting early crop development and helping cap market rallies.

  • Mexico remains the largest buyer of U.S. corn on the export market. Current weather and drought conditions there could become a quiet but supportive factor for U.S. corn. Mexico’s primary planting window runs from April through August, accounting for about 70% of its total production. Drought in key growing areas could reduce yields, potentially boosting U.S. corn exports next winter.

Corn Back Near Calendar Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 445-450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • None. Thinking sub-1000 vs November to potentially begin legging out of recently recommended 1040 January put options. More details to come once an official target is posted.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower due to a limit down move in soybean oil, and July soybeans gave up all of their gains from earlier this week. While soybean export sales were within expectations, the bearish news concerning soybean oil was an announcement last night regarding Renewable Fuel Standard renewable volume obligations.

  • On Wednesday evening, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin confirmed that the agency will initiate a new rulemaking process over the coming months to set updated volume obligations. Traders are concerned the delay could signal lower-than-expected biofuel mandates, potentially below the anticipated 4.6 billion gallons, though this remains speculative.

  • Today’s export sales report saw soybean sales with an increase of 10.4 mb for 24/25 and an increase of 18.0 mb for 25/26. Top destinations were to Egypt, Indonesia, and Mexico. Last week’s export shipments of 15.8 mb were below the 33.4 mb needed each week to mee the USDA’s export estimates.

  • Projections for the U.S. soybean crush in April average 183.8 million bushels. This compares to 194.6 million bushels in March and 169.5 million bushels in April of last year.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures ended higher across all three classes today, showing relative strength despite heavy pressure in the soy complex. Soybean oil closed down its three-cent limit, and soybean futures lost 25 to 27 cents on the day. Support for U.S. wheat may be coming from the upward trend in Paris milling wheat futures, though domestic strength appears largely driven by continued technical buying and short covering, as fresh fundamental news remains limited.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 2.2 million bushels (mb) in wheat export sales for 2024/25 and 27.4 mb for 2025/26. Shipments last week totaled 13.6 mb, falling short of the 15.3 mb weekly pace needed to reach the USDA’s 2024/25 export goal of 820 mb. However, total sales commitments for 2024/25 now stand at 798 mb, up 14% from a year ago.

  • On day two of the Kansas Wheat Quality Council tour, scouts estimated an average yield of 53.3 bushels per acre (bpa), 2.8 bpa above day one and well above last year’s 42.4 bpa. While there is some concern about wheat curl mite and related disease, impacts appear limited at this point in the season.

  • Brazil’s CONAB released updated crop estimates, trimming its wheat production forecast slightly by 0.22 million metric tons (mmt) to 8.25 mmt. For comparison, the USDA currently projects Brazilian wheat output at 8.0 mmt.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina is estimating their 25/26 wheat crop at 21 mmt. If realized, this would be an increase from the 20.1 mmt harvested in 24/25. Wheat planting is just getting started there, but the RGE is anticipating a planted area of 7.2 million hectares which would be the largest in 15 years.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 688 target was lowered to 675.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Other Charts / Weather

|

5-14 End of Day: Wheat Recovery Continues, Corn and Soybeans Close Mostly Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended mixed on Wednesday with old crop contracts slightly higher and new crop contracts fractionally lower.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed higher Wednesday on bull-spreading activity, with nearby contracts gaining on new crop months.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Kansas City wheat futures posted double-digit gains today, with Chicago futures not far behind, as the technical rebound continues.

  • To see the updated 7-day QPF rainfall forecast for the U.S., the 5-10 day temperature anomaly map and the subsoil moisture map for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B downside stop could be added within the next few trading days. The front-month contract hasn’t closed below 440 since mid-December, and the July contract is currently testing that area. If support fails to hold here, the next downside risk could be a move toward 400.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw reduced downward momentum on Wednesday as May contracts expired. Light buying interest emerged in the old crop market, supported by solid demand. May corn futures finished trading on Wednesday, settling at $4.38½.

  • The USDA will release its weekly Export Sales report Thursday morning. For the week ending May 8, new corn sales for the 2024-25 marketing year are expected to range between 1.2 and 2.1 million metric tons (MMT). Last week’s sales totaled 1.6805 MMT, reflecting continued strength in old crop demand.

  • In weekly ethanol production, total production slipped to 292 million barrels/day, down 8 mbpd from last week and down 1% from last year. This total was below expectations and the lowest production in the past 53 weeks. Total corn used last week was estimated at 99 mb, which was slightly below the pace needed to reach USDA targets for the marketing year.

  • Planting conditions remain favorable, with most areas enjoying an open window to complete fieldwork. Heading into the weekend, forecasts show improved chances of beneficial precipitation across key growing regions. While supportive for early crop development, this may limit near-term rallies in the corn market.

Corn Back Near Calendar Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 445-450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher in bull spreading action with the front months gaining on the new crop contracts. Futures continued to break out of their recent trading range as traders focus on smaller acres and a potentially very small ending stocks number. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher.

  • U.S. soybean exports could decline by up to 20% without a trade agreement with China, according to AgResource. Although tariffs have been significantly reduced, they remain higher than pre-trade war levels. Meanwhile, Brazilian President Lula has stated he is not concerned about potential U.S. retaliation over Brazil’s strengthening ties with China.

  • In Brazil, one of the largest grain producers, SLC Agrícola SA, is expected to increase its planted acreage in 25/26 by nearly 14% starting in July. The company has expanded by acquiring smaller farms and grows corn, soybeans, and cotton.

  • China is expected to reduce its soybean imports in 25/26 in order to cut use of soybean meal in the livestock sector. Soybean imports are expected to fall to 95.8 million tons, which would be down 2.8% from the forecast amount this year. This will impact both U.S. and South American export sales.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Kansas City wheat futures posted double-digit gains today, with Chicago futures not far behind, as the technical rebound continues. Winter wheat contracts remain near the bottom of the charts, and oversold conditions may be encouraging short covering. In contrast, Minneapolis wheat closed modestly lower, weighed down by recent rainfall across the Northern Plains and a rapid planting pace.

  • The first day of the Kansas wheat crop tour came with an average yield estimate of 50.5 bpa. This compares with last year’s estimate of 49.9 bpa, and a five-year average of 45.1 bpa. For reference, the USDA is estimating Kansas’ wheat yield at 50 bpa versus 43 bpa last year.

  • On a bearish note, the Russian ag ministry has said that frost damage has impacted about 100,000 hectares this month. This is only about 10% versus the amount impacted at this time last year. Additionally, the Black Sea region is expecting scattered rains that should benefit crop conditions.

  • In Argentina, conditions have been mostly favorable for winter wheat planting so far. Later this week and into the weekend, northern and eastern regions have rain in the forecast. More precipitation is possible next week too, and this would promote establishment of the early planted wheat crop.

  • According to their ag ministry, Ukrainian grain exports have reached 36.7 mmt since the season began on July 1. This represents a 17% decline year over year. Wheat exports in particular are down 13.3% year over year at 14.4 mmt. Furthermore, grain exports so far this month, at 1.5 mmt, are down nearly 50% from the same time period a year ago.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • The 701 target was lowered to 699.25.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 696 target was lowered to 688. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • The 645 target was cancelled.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Above: From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

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Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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5-13 End of Day: Grains Mixed as Corn Slides, Wheat Recovers, and Soybeans Continue Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures extended losses on Tuesday, pressured by favorable weather conditions and a rapid planting pace that spurred additional selling.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day modestly higher after a volatile trading session, with follow-through support from yesterday’s friendly WASDE report helping lift prices.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures rebounded from early losses to finish higher on Tuesday, while Minneapolis wheat futures closed in the red.

  • To see the updated 7-day WPC rainfall forecast for the U.S. and the past 30-day precipitation for the U.S. from the scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

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Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No upside targets at this time.

      • If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:
    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Sellers stayed in control of the corn market on Tuesday as the continued strong planting pace and crop friendly forecast triggered additional selling pressure in the corn market. July futures hit new lows for the move, breaking below December’s support level of $4.37.

  • May corn futures expire on Wednesday, May 14, and could continue to influence the old crop side of the corn market with short-term price movement. May futures traded below the March corn settle price and hold a 6 ½ discount to the July futures, which could keep a negative tilt on the old crop corn market as the corn market feels comfortable with front end supplies.

  • USDA reported 62% of the U.S. corn crop planted as of May 11, up 22 points from last week. That pace is 15% ahead of last year and 6% above the 5-year average. However, Illinois and Indiana are lagging slightly due to wet conditions in southern areas.

  • Conditions remain favorable for planting, with most areas enjoying an open window to complete fieldwork. Looking ahead, next week’s forecast includes beneficial precipitation across key growing regions, offering support for early crop development.

Corn Back Near Calendar Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 445-450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

Above: Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

    • Since last summer, soybeans have largely traded within a range of 950 to 1060. If this rangebound price action continues, the first risk would be a move back toward the lower end at 950. Seasonally, May and June are key months to secure downside protection. Adding 1040 put options will provide coverage against lower prices while keeping upside potential open and not having to commit any physical bushels.

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly higher after volatile trade that saw the July contract down by nearly 18 cents at one point following yesterday’s bearish Crop Progress report. It seemed that the bullish momentum from yesterday’s WASDE, which anticipated a very small ending stocks number, brought futures higher in the end. Soybean meal was lower, while bean oil followed crude oil higher.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean plantings at 48% complete, which was higher than the trade guess of 47% and compared to 30% completion a week ago and the 5-year average of 37%. 17% of the crop is emerged, which compared to 7% a week ago and the average of 11%.

  • Yesterday’s WASDE report was bullish for soybeans showing lower than expected ending stocks. For 24/25, bean ending stocks are forecast at 350 mb, which was down from 375 mb last month, and 25/26 ending stocks are forecast at just 295 MB, which was below the average trade guess. World ending stocks were also lowered by 2.6 mmt.

  • Yesterday, markets jumped early following news that President Trump and Chinese President Xi reached a 90-day tariff truce, rolling back U.S. soybean tariffs to 30% from 145%, with China cutting its tariffs on U.S. goods to 10% from 125%. The announcement sparked rallies in soybeans, hogs, and equities, but some of these gains were given back today.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

Above: Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures recovered from early weakness to close higher Tuesday, despite lingering pressure from Monday’s bearish WASDE report and improved crop ratings. Support may have come from a notable drop in the U.S. Dollar Index and technical correction from oversold levels. In contrast, Minneapolis spring wheat futures closed lower, weighed down by favorable weather and rapid planting progress in the Northern Plains.

  • As of May 11, the USDA has rated the winter wheat crop at 54% good to excellent, up 3% from last week, and above the 50% rating at this time a year ago. An estimated 53% of the crop is headed, 2% below last year, but well above the five-year average of 45%. Furthermore, spring wheat is said to be 66% planted, far beyond 59% last year and 49% average. Emergence is also ahead of schedule at 27%, compared to 23% a year ago and 19% on average.

  • Concerns are rising over an outbreak of wheat curl mite, a pest that transmits wheat streak mosaic virus (WSMV). The mite population is reportedly expanding due to persistent drought in parts of the U.S. Plains, posing risks to both winter and spring wheat crops.

  • According to the French ag ministry, their nation planted an estimated 4.60 million hectares of soft wheat. This is down from the April estimate of 4.63 million hectares, but if realized it would still be up 9.1% year over year. The declining estimate comes from what is planted in the spring, as the winter crop estimate was unchanged from April at 4.57 million hectares (making up the vast majority of their wheat production).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • The 701 target was lowered to 699.25.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 696 target was lowered to 688. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, rallying to October highs just above 615. But the rally was short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into the 2024 range. Solid support near 530 has held through March and early May, reinforcing its importance. The next key hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could mark a turning point and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • The 645 target was cancelled.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

Above: Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Ground Amid Historic Acreage Lows
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend in late January, igniting a wave of bullish momentum. The rally accelerated in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pulled futures below key support. Unlike winter wheat, spring wheat has managed to consolidate near multiple moving averages, which are currently holding as support. The next upside target is the February high near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather will likely be a key driver of price direction this season.

Above: Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

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