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6-9 End of Day: Grains All Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed sharply lower as long-range weather models turned wetter. The July contract posted its lowest close since October 18, while the December contract gave back all its gains from the previous three trading sessions.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower despite better-than-expected export inspections of 20.1 million bushels for the week ended June 5. Both the July and November contracts snapped a four-day winning streak yet remain above their June lows by roughly 30 cents and 15 cents, respectively.

  • 🌾 Wheat: All three wheat classes posted their largest one-day losses since May 27. The drop was driven by a combination of harvest pressure, weaker Matif wheat, beneficial weekend rains in Australia, and an improved rainfall outlook for the U.S. Northern Plains.

  • To see the updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No Action Yet: Still waiting on a potential spring/summer weather volatility rally before recommending the next sale.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Volatility-Ready: Positioned well for potential market swings, with a solid base of sales and open call and put option positions in place. Active targets remain set to begin legging out of options and roll down call options to lower strikes as conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a fourth portion of your 2026 corn. The December ‘26 contract has reached the upside target of 474.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Disappointing day in the corn market as sellers stepped aggressively back into the corn market. The strong selling pressure eliminated the gains in the Dec corn contract last week and a wetter tone in some forecast and technical selling pressured the market

  • Dec corn futures failed to push through the psychological 450 price area. The failure at this level triggered selling pressure as prices continue to drop through levels of support. The weak technical close opens the door for additional selling pressure going into Tuesday.

  • Long-range weather models turn heavier with precipitation from the end of June into early July, which countered some drier weather talk last week.

  • USDA will release crop progress and condition ratings on Monday afternoon. Expectations are for 97% of the corn crop to be planted. Conditions ratings have been below average, but improved weather is expected to boost the rating to 70% good/excellent, up 1% from last week.

  • USDA released weekly export inspections on Monday. Last week, US exporters shipped 1.657 MMT (65.2 mb) of corn. This total was above market expectations. Current corn shipments are up 29% over last year. The current shipment pace is ahead of the pace to reach the USDA marketing year target by approximately 160 mb.

Corn Futures Settle Into a Tight, Five-Day Range
The front-month July contract has settled into a tight five-day trading range, largely between 433 and 445. A close below 433 would open the door to downside risk toward 408, while a close above 445 would point to an upside opportunity near 465.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 53,283 contracts between May 27 – June 3, bringing their total position to a net short 154,043 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No Changes (for Now): While there are no adjustments at the moment, Monday’s close below 1036 support could prompt a revision to Plan A in the near future. Stay alert for potential updates.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES –

    • Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 49 cents in premium, plus fees and commission. This is a recommendation to purchase a second round of 1040 puts, following the first round advised on May 6.

    • Sell another portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower with the deferred contracts posting the larger losses in general weakness across the grain complex. July futures remain above all major moving averages and the 100-day moving average is now acting as support. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.

  • Today’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections better than expected at 20.1 mb for the week ending June 5. Year-to-date soybean inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit the USDA’s target by 81 mb which was up from 72 mb the previous week.

  • Drought conditions are still persistent across the soybean belt but were seen shrinking by 1% to 16%. This compares to just 2% during the same period last year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 28,096 contracts which left them with a long position of 8,601 contracts. They sold 21,998 contracts of oil and 2,932 contracts of meal.

Soybean Futures Stall – Resistance Remains
Last Monday, the July contract closed 8 cents lower, breaking 1036.50 support and posting its lowest close since April 10. Over the next four trading days, July rallied, gaining about 24 cents and finishing the week up 16 cents net. The four-day winning streak pushed July back above all major moving averages, but to break out of the broader sideways trading range that’s held since last summer, the contract still needs to clear the May high of 1082.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 28,096 contracts between May 27 – June 3, bringing their total position to a net long 8,601 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat began the week with double-digit losses for all three classes by the close as markets took a risk off posture. A combination of harvest pressure and a lower close for Matif wheat added weight to the market today. Additionally, rainfall anticipated this week in the US northern plains as well as for the second week of the outlook in China’s wheat growing areas added to weakness. Australian wheat growing regions received beneficial rains over the weekend too.

  • Weekly wheat inspections totaled 10.7 mb with 4.5 mb of that total for the 24/25 marketing year. For 25/26 total inspections are now at 6 mb, down 43% from last year and running well under the USDA’s estimated pace. They are forecasting 25/26 wheat exports will reach 800 mb, down 3% from the year prior.

  • SovEcon has increased their estimate of Russian 2025 wheat production by 1.8 mmt to 82.8 mmt. For reference, the USDA is using a figure of 83 mmt. Additionally, IKAR has said Russian wheat export values finished last week at $225 per mt, unchanged from the week before.

  • This Thursday will feature the monthly WASDE report – the average pre-report estimate of 2025 US wheat production comes in at 1.924 bb, up from 1.921 bb in the May report. Of that total, winter wheat is expected to account for 1.389 bb vs 1.382 bb last month.

  • Analyst group APK-Inform has reduced their estimate of Ukraine’s 2025 grain production by 4.3% to 52.9 mmt. This is said to be mainly due to smaller corn and wheat harvests. The wheat production estimate in particular was revised down 0.1 mmt from last month to 21.7 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The 693.75 target has been cancelled.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None. Continue to target 675 to make a second sale.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Hits Resistance
The July contract faced a sharp rejection after testing the 200-day moving average at 557.75. A close above that level could open the door for a broader rally toward the April high of 621.75. However, until that resistance is cleared, the risk remains for sideways-to-lower trade, with 506.25 as the recent downside reference point.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, June 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 654 contracts between May 27– June 3, bringing their total position to a net short 100,572 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance At 550
First resistance stands at last week’s high of 550.50. A breakout above that level would shift focus to the 100-day and 200-day moving averages in the 565–567 range. Clearing that secondary resistance could open the door to broader upside potential, with targets in the 600–620 zone — near the early spring highs. On the downside, the May low of 500.25 remains a key support level. Failure to break out above resistance would keep the trend sideways to lower, with that low as the next risk.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, June 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1333 contracts between May 27– June 3, bringing their total position to a net short 78,028 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop. This marks the sixth sale for the 2024 crop and may well be the final sales recommendation for this marketing year, as Grain Market Insider shifts focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops moving forward. Use this rally as an opportunity to consider pricing any remaining unsold bushels.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Leading the Complex
July spring wheat futures have outperformed both Chicago and KC wheat since all three markets bottomed in mid-May. It is the only July wheat contract currently trading above all three major moving averages — the 50-, 100-, and 200-day — which have now converged in the 605–610 range, establishing a key support zone. A close below 605 would expose the market to downside risk toward 580. However, as long as 605 holds, the broader upside potential remains intact, with room to rally toward the 660 level.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, June 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 10,441 contracts between May 27 – June 3, bringing their total position to a net short 20,077 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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6-6 End of Day: Grains Finish Higher to End Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures found close higher on short covering going into the weekend. Extended weather forecast turning drier helped drive prices.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans rebounded from early losses, led by concerns over drought conditions heading further into June and July.

  • 🌾 Wheat: All three wheat classes finished higher today, finding support from increasing war tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

  • To see the updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Continuing to hold out for potential upside volatility during the growing season before issuing the next sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Well positioned for growing season volatility, with a solid base of sales already in place. Both upside and downside targets remain active — ready to begin legging out of open options positions and to roll down call options as market conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • NEW ALERT – Sell a fourth portion of your 2026 corn. The December ‘26 contract has reached the upside target of 474.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished the week with some buying strength, led by short covering and value buying in the July futures. December corn closed the week 10 ¾ cents higher and traded higher for 4 consecutive sessions. July corn was still 1 ½ cents lower on the week and posted its lowest weekly close since October.

  • Early season weather has been favorable for a good start to this year’s corn crop, but some longer-range models are showing a possibility of drier forecast for the west-central corn belt for the end of June into July. A possible weather concern has triggered some short covering of new crop corn this week.

  • USDA will release the June WASDE report on June 12. While changes will likely be minimal for new crop projections, analysts are anticipating a demand increase for old crop bushel, lowering the 2024-25 carryout projects. Solid ethanol and export demand this spring supports possible adjustments.

  • Brazil corn prices have been under heavy pressure as harvest picks up speed and the prospects of a large harvest build due to good growing conditions. Weakness in Brazil corn prices have pressured old crop US corn prices.

  • Despite fresh corn supplies from Argentina and Brazil in the export market, US corn prices are still competitive. Rumors were in the market that South Korea was a purchaser of corn this week out of the Pacific Northwest ports.

Corn Futures Eye Weather Risks After May Pullback
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April following a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures faced renewed pressure through May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns dragged prices back below $4.70. So far, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone — reinforced by the 200-day moving average — has held firm. With planting nearing completion, market focus is quickly shifting to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook for a warmer, drier Western Corn Belt could revive risk premium and set the stage for weather-driven rallies. Resistance emerges near $4.70, with stronger resistance around the April highs at $4.90.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No Changes (for Now): While there are no adjustments at the moment, Monday’s close below 1036 support could prompt a revision to Plan A in the near future. Stay alert for potential updates.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES –

    • Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 49 cents in premium, plus fees and commission. This is a recommendation to purchase a second round of 1040 puts, following the first round advised on May 6.

    • Sell another portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were higher to end the week and posted their fourth consecutive higher close as the longer-term forecasts turn hotter and drier. Positive trade talks between President Trump and China’s Xi this week were supportive to the soy complex as well. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that soybean harvest in Argentina is now 88.7% complete, up 8% from the week prior.

  • Drought conditions are still persistent across the soybean belt but were seen shrinking by 1% to 16%. This compares to just 2% during the same period last year.

  • For the week, July soybeans gained 15-1/2 cents to 10.57-1/4 while November gained just 10-1/4 cents. July soybean meal was virtually unchanged losing just $0.60 at $295.70, and July soybean oil gained 0.61 cents closing at 47.50 cents.

Soybean Futures Remain Range-Bound into June
Soybean futures tumbled below the key $10.00 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, triggering technical selling after breaking the March low. However, the decline was short-lived as buyers stepped in, lifting prices back above $10.00 and reclaiming key moving averages, including a clean break above the 200-day moving average — a level that now serves as solid support. With no fresh bullish catalyst and favorable weather weighing on sentiment, futures remain range-bound. The 200-day should continue to offer support, while resistance holds near the May high of $10.82.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures found good buying strength across all three classes of wheat during Friday’s session. The July Chicago wheat contract posted its highest daily close since April 23 and finished the week 20 ¾ cents higher.

  • An increase in tensions between Russia and Ukraine triggered some short covering in the wheat market as traders have added some war premium back into the market.

  • Chinese wheat producing regions are experiencing some drought conditions as harvest approaches. The prospects of a below-average harvest have the wheat market watching for some possible increased export activity as China may need to maintain wheat supplies.

  • USDA announced that wheat export shipments for the 2024-25 marketing year reached 768.3 MB as of May 29. The total was well below the USDA target of 820 mb for the marketing, which closed on May 30. New crop wheat export sales are firm to start the new marketing year as early totals are the best in the past twelve years for this time frame.

  • Recent rainfall forecast in Hard red winter wheat growing areas has trended wetter than normal with precipitation. As harvest ramps up, wet conditions could impact the quality of the wheat harvest.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • The 699.25 target has been cancelled.

      • Looking ahead, next week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The 693.75 target has been cancelled.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None. Continue to target 675 to make a second sale.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Potentially Finds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, reaching October highs above $6.15 before quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, prices slipped below key support near $5.30 but have since stabilized around $5.20. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could signal a trend reversal and open the door to broader gains.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Looking ahead, next week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Support
With ample spring moisture across the Plains and sluggish demand, wheat futures have lacked bullish momentum, recently touching multi-year lows near $5.00 in early May—a level that has since held. A recovery above $5.40 would suggest a potential bottom is in place. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average marks initial resistance, with a stronger ceiling at the February highs near $6.40.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop. This marks the sixth sale for the 2024 crop and may well be the final sales recommendation for this marketing year, as Grain Market Insider shifts focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops moving forward. Use this rally as an opportunity to consider pricing any remaining unsold bushels.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Looking ahead, next week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Runs Higher on Poor Conditions
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, with momentum accelerating in mid-February after a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. Although late-month weakness briefly pulled prices below key support, futures traded mostly sideways through spring. A sharp rally was triggered in late May after crop condition ratings came in at their second lowest in 40 years, sparking short covering. Prices are now back above a confluence of moving averages and nearing the top of the recent range. Key support sits just above $6.00, with the next upside target near February’s highs around $6.60.

Other Charts / Weather

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6-5 End of Day: Grains Edge Higher Following Positive Talks Between US and China

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures finished mostly higher on the day thanks to strong export sales and flow over support from high ethanol output data yesterday.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans got a boost on Thursday after confirmation of positive trade war talks between the U.S. and China.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed higher across all three classes, supported by global production cuts and a slightly weaker dollar.

  • To see updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Continuing to hold out for potential upside volatility during the growing season before issuing the next sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Well positioned for growing season volatility, with a solid base of sales already in place. Both upside and downside targets remain active — ready to begin legging out of open options positions and to roll down call options as market conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Be prepared for the next sales recommendation at any time as sales need to be systematically and incrementally progressed based on the calendar throughout the growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Short covering and value buying helped lift the corn markets for the second consecutive session as new corn crop prices led the market higher. December corn futures are trading 9 ¾ cents higher going into Friday trade.

  • Despite the strong tone of demand in both export sales and ethanol usage, the corn market remained bear-spread with limited gains or extended selling pressure in the July contract. The strong planting pace, prospects of large Brazil corn crop, and crop-friendly weather forecast have seen end users comfortable with front end supplies, limited upside currently on old crop corn prices. July corn futures are 4 ½ cents lower on the week going into Friday trade.

  • USDA released corn export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending May 29, the USDA reported new sales of 942,000 MT (37.1 mb) for 2024-25, and 160,000 MT (6.3 mb) for 2025-26. This was within analysts’ expectations. Mexico was the top buyer of U.S. corn last week. Total export sales commitments for 2024-25 marketing year now total 2.564 bb, up 27% from a year ago, and within 36 mb of the USDA target for the year.

  • Commodity markets were supported by comments by President Trump regarding his phone conversation with President Xi of China. The possibility of more dialogue eased some of the trade tensions fears that may have limited the corn market over recent sessions.

  • Weather forecast into the middle of June remains supportive for good crop growth, and a limiting gain in the corn market. Longer range models reflect a drier and warm pattern going into the end of the month, but long-range forecast lack reliability and can change daily.

Corn Futures Eye Weather Risks After May Pullback
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April following a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures faced renewed pressure through May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns dragged prices back below $4.70. So far, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone — reinforced by the 200-day moving average — has held firm. With planting nearing completion, market focus is quickly shifting to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook for a warmer, drier Western Corn Belt could revive risk premium and set the stage for weather-driven rallies. Resistance emerges near $4.70, with stronger resistance around the April highs at $4.90.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No Changes (for Now): While there are no adjustments at the moment, Monday’s close below 1036 support could prompt a revision to Plan A in the near future. Stay alert for potential updates.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 49 cents in premium, plus fees and commission. This is a recommendation to purchase a second round of 1040 puts, following the first round advised on May 6. Seasonally, May and June are key months to secure downside price protection. Adding this second layer provides additional coverage against lower prices while preserving upside potential and avoiding any further commitment of physical bushels.

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 soybean crop. The November contract closed below key 1018.50 support Monday, triggering Grain Market Insider’s Plan B strategy, which recommends selling a second portion of your 2025 soybean crop.  Bigger picture, the soybean market continues to trade within a broader range — roughly 1060 on the topside and 960 on the bottom. Monday’s break of support shifts the short-term trend within this sideways range to down, increasing the risk of a move back toward 960.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher today following positive trade talks between President Trump and China’s Xi, which will hopefully lead to further negotiations. Today’s export sales report fell within trade expectations but were not very strong. Soybean meal was slightly higher, while bean oil was mixed in bear spreading action.

  • Today’s export sales report saw an increase of 7.1 million bushels of soybean sales for 24/25 and 0.1 mb for 25/26. This was up 33% from last week but down 30% from the prior 4-week average. Top buyers were Bangladesh, Norway, and Taiwan. Last week’s export shipments of 11.3 mb were below the 13.4 mb needed each week to meet USDA estimates.

  • Today, Presidents Trump and Xi spoke on the phone and, according to Trum,p had a very good conversation regarding the countries’ trade truce. More meetings are expected to follow and will ideally end with a trade agreement.

  • The soybean meal market could provide some support for soybean futures in the near future. Managed hedge funds are holding a near-record short position in the soybean meal market, but demand for U.S. soybean meal has been improving. Soybean meal exports for the current marketing year are at a record pace and up 5% over last year. With the prospects of tighter acres for next crop year, soybean meal could see buying strength from value buyers at these price levels.

Soybean Futures Remain Range-Bound into June
Soybean futures tumbled below the key $10.00 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, triggering technical selling after breaking the March low. However, the decline was short-lived as buyers stepped in, lifting prices back above $10.00 and reclaiming key moving averages, including a clean break above the 200-day moving average — a level that now serves as solid support. With no fresh bullish catalyst and favorable weather weighing on sentiment, futures remain range-bound. The 200-day should continue to offer support, while resistance holds near the May high of $10.82.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • With the exception of Minneapolis futures, wheat closed marginally higher today. Ongoing concerns about global production, along with anticipation of better U.S. and world trade relations helped keep the wheat settlements mostly positive. However, U.S. winter wheat harvest pressure may somewhat limit upside potential for now.

  • Grain markets may have received a boost today in part due to the phone call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi. It appears to have been constructive; news outlets report that Trump stated it was a “very good phone call” and this may have given traders some optimism that a trade deal is near.

  • The USDA reported a decrease of 1.8 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, but an increase of 16.3 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week reached 19.8 mb, which is well below the 50.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s 820 mb export goal for 24/25. Total 24/25 shipments at 768 mb are up 13% from last year.

  • Recent rains have improved the drought situation for both winter and spring wheat areas. According to the USDA, as of June 3, an estimated 12% of winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions – this is down 4% from last week. Meanwhile, spring wheat areas in drought dropped from 29% to 19% during the same time period.

  • LSEG sees Chinese wheat production at 141.7 mmt in their latest estimate. This would be down 1% from the last update and the decrease is due to the impact of ongoing drought. Other private estimates range as low as 133-135 mmt. For reference, last year China’s wheat crop was a record 140 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Potentially Finds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, reaching October highs above $6.15 before quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, prices slipped below key support near $5.30 but have since stabilized around $5.20. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could signal a trend reversal and open the door to broader gains.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Support
With ample spring moisture across the Plains and sluggish demand, wheat futures have lacked bullish momentum, recently touching multi-year lows near $5.00 in early May—a level that has since held. A recovery above $5.40 would suggest a potential bottom is in place. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average marks initial resistance, with a stronger ceiling at the February highs near $6.40.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop. This marks the sixth sale for the 2024 crop and may well be the final sales recommendation for this marketing year, as Grain Market Insider shifts focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops moving forward. Use this rally as an opportunity to consider pricing any remaining unsold bushels.

  • Plan A: Sell more cash now.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Runs Higher on Poor Conditions
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, with momentum accelerating in mid-February after a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. Although late-month weakness briefly pulled prices below key support, futures traded mostly sideways through spring. A sharp rally was triggered in late May after crop condition ratings came in at their second lowest in 40 years, sparking short covering. Prices are now back above a confluence of moving averages and nearing the top of the recent range. Key support sits just above $6.00, with the next upside target near February’s highs around $6.60.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

6-4 End of Day: Grains Firm Midweek on Weather and Trade Hopes

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures finished mostly higher Wednesday, supported by seasonal strength and a potentially drier long-range outlook. Gains were limited by weakness in July futures and ongoing bear spreading.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans climbed higher, buoyed by concerns over a hot, dry summer pattern and renewed optimism surrounding potential U.S.-China trade discussions.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures posted solid gains across all classes, lifted by a weaker U.S. dollar, strength in row crops, and firmer Paris milling wheat prices.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Continuing to hold out for potential upside volatility during the growing season before issuing the next sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Well positioned for growing season volatility, with a solid base of sales already in place. Both upside and downside targets remain active — ready to begin legging out of open options positions and to roll down call options as market conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Be prepared for the next sales recommendation at any time as sales need to be systematically and incrementally progressed based on the calendar throughout the growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended mostly higher Wednesday, supported by seasonal strength and hints of a drier long-range forecast, though gains were capped by July weakness and bear spreading.

  • While recent rainfall across the Corn Belt has pressured prices, some model runs now suggest a drier pattern for the Western Corn Belt into late June, encouraging short covering in December corn. However, long-range forecasts remain volatile and subject to change.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning, and expectations are for corn sales to remain supportive. For the week ending May 28, New corn sales are expected to range from 775,000-1.4 MMT. Last week’s sales were 916,500 MT.

  • Ethanol production climbed to 1.105 million barrels per day last week, up from the previous week and last year. An estimated 107.2 million bushels of corn were used, in line with USDA’s pace for the marketing year.

Corn Futures Eye Weather Risks After May Pullback
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April following a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures faced renewed pressure through May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns dragged prices back below $4.70. So far, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone — reinforced by the 200-day moving average — has held firm. With planting nearing completion, market focus is quickly shifting to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook for a warmer, drier Western Corn Belt could revive risk premium and set the stage for weather-driven rallies. Resistance emerges near $4.70, with stronger resistance around the April highs at $4.90.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No Changes (for Now): While there are no adjustments at the moment, Monday’s close below 1036 support could prompt a revision to Plan A in the near future. Stay alert for potential updates.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 soybean crop. The November contract closed below key 1018.50 support Monday, triggering Grain Market Insider’s Plan B strategy, which recommends selling a second portion of your 2025 soybean crop.  Bigger picture, the soybean market continues to trade within a broader range — roughly 1060 on the topside and 960 on the bottom. Monday’s break of support shifts the short-term trend within this sideways range to down, increasing the risk of a move back toward 960.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support (HIT 6/2).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • Target Cancelled: The Plan A upside sales target at 1114 has been cancelled following Monday’s break of 1018.50 support.

      • Heads Up: A recommendation to buy another tranche of January put options is likely coming tomorrow, based on calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher thanks to a drier extended forecast that may point to the start of a hot and dry summer. Soybean meal led the complex higher as soybean oil traded unchanged to slightly higher. President Trump’s upcoming discussion with China’s Xi may be supportive as well.

  • Roughly 13.7 million soybean acres remain unplanted, ahead of the average pace based on March Prospective Plantings, thanks to favorable early weather.

  • U.S. soybeans are now the cheapest option for smaller vessel shipments to Europe and North Africa for August–September, even undercutting northern Brazil after a sharp 25-cent basis increase there over the past two weeks.

  • Market sentiment is finding some support from the White House’s continued optimism that President Trump and China’s President Xi will hold direct talks, offering hope for improved trade relations.

Soybean Futures Remain Range-Bound into June
Soybean futures tumbled below the key $10.00 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, triggering technical selling after breaking the March low. However, the decline was short-lived as buyers stepped in, lifting prices back above $10.00 and reclaiming key moving averages, including a clean break above the 200-day moving average — a level that now serves as solid support. With no fresh bullish catalyst and favorable weather weighing on sentiment, futures remain range-bound. The 200-day should continue to offer support, while resistance holds near the May high of $10.82.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed higher across all three classes, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, strength in corn and soybeans, and gains in Paris milling wheat. Frost concerns in Argentina and optimism over upcoming U.S.-China trade talks added to the bullish tone.

  • Heavy rains in the Southern Plains and Midwest are causing harvest delays and raising disease concerns due to localized flooding.

  • Bearish pressure lingers from cheap Russian wheat, with FOB offers around $225/mt and a 25% cut to their wheat export duty, now at 1,023.5 Rubles/mt through June 10.

  • Shaanxi and Henan provinces in China, which are both part of their wheat belt, continue to be impacted by hot and dry weather. And while those with irrigation systems have steady yields, some farmers claim that their harvest has been reduced by half. Official Chinese estimates are several weeks away, but the drought does appear to be having a significant impact from these anecdotal reports.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Potentially Finds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, reaching October highs above $6.15 before quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, prices slipped below key support near $5.30 but have since stabilized around $5.20. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could signal a trend reversal and open the door to broader gains.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Support
With ample spring moisture across the Plains and sluggish demand, wheat futures have lacked bullish momentum, recently touching multi-year lows near $5.00 in early May—a level that has since held. A recovery above $5.40 would suggest a potential bottom is in place. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average marks initial resistance, with a stronger ceiling at the February highs near $6.40.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop. This marks the sixth sale for the 2024 crop and may well be the final sales recommendation for this marketing year, as Grain Market Insider shifts focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops moving forward. Use this rally as an opportunity to consider pricing any remaining unsold bushels.

  • Plan A: Sell more cash now.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Runs Higher on Poor Conditions
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, with momentum accelerating in mid-February after a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. Although late-month weakness briefly pulled prices below key support, futures traded mostly sideways through spring. A sharp rally was triggered in late May after crop condition ratings came in at their second lowest in 40 years, sparking short covering. Prices are now back above a confluence of moving averages and nearing the top of the recent range. Key support sits just above $6.00, with the next upside target near February’s highs around $6.60.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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6-3 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Turn Higher Tuesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn snapped a five-day losing streak Tuesday as nearing planting completion and weaker-than-expected early crop ratings triggered short covering and modest gains.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans rebounded sharply, erasing nearly all of Monday’s losses. Support came from firmer soybean oil — lifted by rising crude prices — and renewed optimism over potential trade deals.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes, pressured by better U.S. crop ratings and a firmer U.S. dollar.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Continuing to hold out for potential upside volatility during the growing season before issuing the next sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Well positioned for growing season volatility, with a solid base of sales already in place. Both upside and downside targets remain active — ready to begin legging out of open options positions and to roll down call options as market conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Be prepared for the next sales recommendation at any time as sales need to be systematically and incrementally progressed based on the calendar throughout the growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market broke a five-day losing streak on Tuesday as prices found some footing for the session. Planting progress is nearing completion, but softer historical crop ratings may have supported the new crop market as light buying strength triggered some short covering. The key will be follow-through strength for the rest of the week.

  • As of June 1, corn planting reached 93% complete — on par with the 5-year average. Delays persist in Ohio and Kentucky due to continued wet conditions, with roughly 7.1 million acres still unplanted.

  • Corn crop conditions improved slightly over last week. USDA pegged the percent good/excellent at 69% as of June 1, up 1% over last week.  Corn condition ratings are down from 75% G/E from last year. Cool temperatures have been one of the biggest factors limiting the early stages of the corn crop.

  • April corn used for ethanol totaled 425.8 mb, down from March’s 452.9 mb. While ethanol demand remains firm, regulatory uncertainty and growing stocks could weigh on usage going forward.

  • Long range forecast going into the middle of June remains supportive of good crop development, as the corn market is looking for a bullish story to trigger a potential short covering rally. Currently the weather is a limiting factor to corn prices.

Corn Futures Eye Weather Risks After May Pullback
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April following a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures faced renewed pressure through May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns dragged prices back below $4.70. So far, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone — reinforced by the 200-day moving average — has held firm. With planting nearing completion, market focus is quickly shifting to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook for a warmer, drier Western Corn Belt could revive risk premium and set the stage for weather-driven rallies. Resistance emerges near $4.70, with stronger resistance around the April highs at $4.90.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No Changes (for Now): While there are no adjustments at the moment, Monday’s close below 1036 support could prompt a revision to Plan A in the near future. Stay alert for potential updates.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2025 soybean crop today. The November contract closed below key 1018.50 support yesterday, triggering Grain Market Insider’s Plan B strategy, which recommends selling a second portion of your 2025 soybean crop today.  Bigger picture, the soybean market continues to trade within a broader range — roughly 1060 on the topside and 960 on the bottom. Yesterday’s break of support shifts the short-term trend within this sideways range to down, increasing the risk of a move back toward 960.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support (HIT 6/2).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • Target Cancelled: The Plan A upside sales target at 1114 has been cancelled following Monday’s break of 1018.50 support.

      • Heads Up: A recommendation to buy another tranche of January put options is likely coming on Thursday of this week, based on calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher and took back nearly all of yesterday’s losses thanks to gains in soybean oil along with positive sentiment that trade deals with a number of countries are in the works and should lead to improved demand. Soybean meal was mixed with gains in the front months and losses in deferred months while soybean oil led the complex higher following crude oil.

  • USDA rated 67% of the crop good to excellent — slightly below expectations. Planting reached 84% vs. 77% last year, with 63% emerged.

  • U.S.–China tensions remain in focus as Presidents Trump and Xi are expected to speak this week. With South America dominating recent Chinese purchases, a fall trade window hinges on resolution.

  • April soybean crush hit a record 202.4 mb, up 14% from last year. Year-to-date crush is running 6% above 2023.

Soybean Futures Remain Range-Bound into June
Soybean futures tumbled below the key $10.00 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, triggering technical selling after breaking the March low. However, the decline was short-lived as buyers stepped in, lifting prices back above $10.00 and reclaiming key moving averages, including a clean break above the 200-day moving average — a level that now serves as solid support. With no fresh bullish catalyst and favorable weather weighing on sentiment, futures remain range-bound. The 200-day should continue to offer support, while resistance holds near the May high of $10.82.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After trading both sides of neutral, wheat closed lower across all three classes, pressured by better crop ratings, a firming of the U.S. Dollar, and a lower close for Paris milling wheat futures. In addition, the extended forecast has the potential for rains in some of the dry areas of China and the Black Sea.

  • USDA reported winter wheat at 52% good/excellent (+2%) with 83% headed and 3% harvested — both in line with average. Spring wheat is 95% planted and 50% G/E (+5%).

  • Widespread rains (1–3”) are forecast across the Midwest this week, with heavier totals in the southern U.S., which may delay harvest and impact quality.

  • Moroccan wheat imports between June 1, 2024, and the end of May 2025 totaled 6.05 mmt. This is up 9.4% from the previous 5.53 mmt in the previous 12 months. Soft wheat imports accounted for the majority of that total at 4.97 mmt, while durum made up the remainder at 1.08 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Potentially Finds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, reaching October highs above $6.15 before quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, prices slipped below key support near $5.30 but have since stabilized around $5.20. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could signal a trend reversal and open the door to broader gains.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Support
With ample spring moisture across the Plains and sluggish demand, wheat futures have lacked bullish momentum, recently touching multi-year lows near $5.00 in early May—a level that has since held. A recovery above $5.40 would suggest a potential bottom is in place. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average marks initial resistance, with a stronger ceiling at the February highs near $6.40.

Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple)

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop. This marks the sixth sale for the 2024 crop and may well be the final sales recommendation for this marketing year, as Grain Market Insider shifts focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops moving forward. Use this rally as an opportunity to consider pricing any remaining unsold bushels.

  • Plan A: Sell more cash now.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Runs Higher on Poor Conditions
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, with momentum accelerating in mid-February after a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. Although late-month weakness briefly pulled prices below key support, futures traded mostly sideways through spring. A sharp rally was triggered in late May after crop condition ratings came in at their second lowest in 40 years, sparking short covering. Prices are now back above a confluence of moving averages and nearing the top of the recent range. Key support sits just above $6.00, with the next upside target near February’s highs around $6.60.

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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6-2 End of Day: Wheat Futures Climb While Corn and Soybeans Continue Decline

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended lower Monday, with favorable weather across much of the Corn Belt continuing to weigh on prices. December futures closed in the red for the seventh straight session, as traders remain reluctant to add risk premium without a clear weather threat.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed lower Monday, pressured by uncertainty surrounding upcoming trade talks between President Trump and China’s President Xi.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed higher across all three U.S. exchanges Monday, supported by a combination of adverse global weather, a weaker U.S. dollar, and renewed geopolitical risk.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Continuing to hold out for potential upside volatility during the growing season before issuing the next sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Well positioned for growing season volatility, with a solid base of sales already in place. Both upside and downside targets remain active — ready to begin legging out of open options positions and to roll down call options as market conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Be prepared for the next sales recommendation at any time as sales need to be systematically and incrementally progressed based on the calendar throughout the growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended lower Monday as favorable weather remains the dominant market driver. Despite solid demand and a weaker U.S. dollar, July corn closed at its lowest level since October 22, fading from early session highs.

  • USDA export inspections for the week ending May 29 came in at 1.576 MMT (62 mb), topping expectations and up 29% from a year ago, reinforcing strong demand.

  • Weather forecasts continue to pressure prices, with cool temperatures and widespread rains expected across much of the Corn Belt over the next two weeks. As a result, the market holds little weather premium, keeping sellers in control.

  • Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report will be closely watched. While planting progress in wetter areas remains in focus, traders may shift their attention to condition ratings. Last week’s 68% good-to-excellent rating was a surprise miss, but improved weather could support crop development going forward.

Corn Futures Eye Weather Risks After May Pullback
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April following a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures faced renewed pressure through May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns dragged prices back below $4.70. So far, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone — reinforced by the 200-day moving average — has held firm. With planting nearing completion, market focus is quickly shifting to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook for a warmer, drier Western Corn Belt could revive risk premium and set the stage for weather-driven rallies. Resistance emerges near $4.70, with stronger resistance around the April highs at $4.90.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,450 contracts between May 20 – May 27, bringing their total position to a net short 100,760 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No Changes (for Now): While there are no adjustments at the moment, today’s close below 1036 support could prompt a revision to Plan A in the near future. Stay alert for potential updates.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • A recommendation to buy another tranche of January put options is likely coming on Wednesday or Thursday of this week, based on calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were lower to end the day with pressure coming from concerns about a trade deal being negotiated between President Trump and China’s Xi. Pressure also came from lower closes in both soybean meal and oil despite gains in crude oil.

  • With Chinese trade concerns mounting, President Trump and Xi are set to speak this week to work out disagreements had at last month’s meeting in Geneva. South America has been the primary supplier of soybeans to China, but the export window for the US will be coming up this fall, and having a trade agreement in place will be crucial.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 24,043 contracts which left them with a net long position of 36,697 contracts. They sold 3,321 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 53,988 contracts and bought back 13,681 contracts of meal which left them near record short at 93,785 contracts.

  • Ahead of the USDA’s upcoming report, analysts expect April soybean crush to total 202 million bushels, up 13.8% from 177.6 mb last year. Corn used for ethanol is also projected to be higher year-over-year.

Soybean Futures Remain Range-Bound into June
Soybean futures tumbled below the key $10.00 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, triggering technical selling after breaking the March low. However, the decline was short-lived as buyers stepped in, lifting prices back above $10.00 and reclaiming key moving averages, including a clean break above the 200-day moving average — a level that now serves as solid support. With no fresh bullish catalyst and favorable weather weighing on sentiment, futures remain range-bound. The 200-day should continue to offer support, while resistance holds near the May high of $10.82.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 24,043 contracts between May 20 – May 27, bringing their total position to a net long 36,697 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed higher across all three U.S. exchanges Monday, supported by a combination of adverse global weather, a weaker U.S. dollar, and renewed geopolitical risk. Dryness in key wheat-growing regions — including China, southern Russia, Canada, and northern Europe — continues to underpin prices. In the U.S., excessive rains are raising concerns over potential harvest delays and crop quality issues in the Southern Plains.

  • Weekly wheat inspections reached 20.3 mb, bringing total 24/25 inspections to 802 mb, up 16% from last year. The USDA is estimating 24/25 wheat exports at 820 mb, up 17% from the year prior.

  • Geopolitical tensions flared again over the weekend, with Ukraine launching drone strikes deep inside Russian territory. Reports suggest four military bases and over 40 Russian bombers were damaged, reintroducing a war premium into the market and casting doubt on the progress of upcoming peace talks.

  • The Australian agriculture ministry is estimating their nation’s 2025 wheat harvest will total 30.6 mmt. If that prediction is accurate, it will be a 10% decline from last year. For reference, the USDA is estimating Australian wheat production at 31 mmt.

  • Russian wheat export prices held steady at $225/MT, according to IKAR, which also forecast June exports at 1.2 MMT — down from 2.1 MMT in May. Meanwhile, Russia’s agriculture ministry slashed its wheat export tax by 25% to 1,023 rubles per metric ton.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Potentially Finds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, reaching October highs above $6.15 before quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, prices slipped below key support near $5.30 but have since stabilized around $5.20. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could signal a trend reversal and open the door to broader gains.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 7,667 contracts between May 20– May 27, bringing their total position to a net short 101,226 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Support
With ample spring moisture across the Plains and sluggish demand, wheat futures have lacked bullish momentum, recently touching multi-year lows near $5.00 in early May—a level that has since held. A recovery above $5.40 would suggest a potential bottom is in place. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average marks initial resistance, with a stronger ceiling at the February highs near $6.40.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 801 contracts between May 20– May 27, bringing their total position to a net short 79,361 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop today. This marks the sixth sale for the 2024 crop and may well be the final sales recommendation for this marketing year, as Grain Market Insider shifts focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops moving forward. Use this rally as an opportunity to consider pricing any remaining unsold bushels.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Runs Higher on Poor Conditions
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, with momentum accelerating in mid-February after a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. Although late-month weakness briefly pulled prices below key support, futures traded mostly sideways through spring. A sharp rally was triggered in late May after crop condition ratings came in at their second lowest in 40 years, sparking short covering. Prices are now back above a confluence of moving averages and nearing the top of the recent range. Key support sits just above $6.00, with the next upside target near February’s highs around $6.60.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,622 contracts between May 20 – May 27, bringing their total position to a net short 30,518 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

|

5-30 End of Day: Grain Markets Cool as Weather Improves, Trade Tensions Rise

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed lower for a third straight session, down 15¼ cents on the week. A favorable weather outlook and renewed U.S.–China trade tensions weighed on prices, overshadowing fresh export activity.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended the day in the red, with July closing below all major moving averages for the first time since early April. Prices settled at the bottom of their recent range as beneficial weather and weaker soybean oil added pressure.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures finished mixed on Friday. Chicago slipped slightly, Kansas City notched modest gains, and Minneapolis led to the upside for a third straight session, buoyed by poor spring wheat crop ratings and technical momentum.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Continuing to hold out for potential upside volatility during the growing season before issuing the next sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Well positioned for growing season volatility, with a good base of sales in place and both upside and downside targets active to begin legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • With the 474 target failing to hit this week, be prepared for a sales recommendation next week. Sales need to be systematically and incrementally progressed based on the calendar throughout the growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the week lower, falling for a third straight session and shedding 15¼ cents overall. A softer demand tone, large expectations for Brazil corn crop, and trade concerns between the U.S. and China pressured the market.

  • President Trump reignited trade concerns Thursday with comments accusing China of violating a recent agreement, suggesting potential sanctions, though no details were provided. The uncertainty pressured markets late in the session.

  • USDA released weekly corn export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending May 22, USDA reported new sales of 916,000 MT (36.1 mb). This was within, but towards the low end of expectations and down 23% from last week. Japan was the top buyer of U.S. corn last week. Corn sales commitments now total 2.527 BB for the 2024-25 marketing year and are up 28% from last year. The USDA export target for the marketing year is 2.600 BB.

  • USDA also confirmed a flash sale of 210,560 MT (8.3 mb) of corn to unknown destinations — the third consecutive daily export announcement.

  • The total corn production out of Brazil is larger than expected and could be pushing 140 MMT. The USDA forecast is for 130 MMT. Safras, a Brazilian Agriculture Analyst firm, raised their forecast 139 MMT today, with a nearly 4MMT bump in the second crop corn due to strong yield and favorable weather in the growing season.

Corn Finds Support at 200-day
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April on a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures have come under renewed pressure in May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns have pushed prices back below $4.70. For now, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone and 200-day moving average have held. As planting wraps up, the market’s focus will shift quickly to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook calls for a warmer, drier pattern across the Western Corn Belt into June — potentially rekindling risk premium and setting the stage for weather-driven rallies. Initial resistance is expected near $4.70, with stronger resistance at the April highs around $4.90.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Still content with the 1107 target as long as 1036 support holds. If that support level is broken, the current strategy will need to be revisited and potentially adjusted.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • Mid-to-late next week, another tranche of January put options may be recommended, based on calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Approaching the seasonal window where first sales targets could post at any time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower at the bottom of their recent trading range with the July contract closing below all major moving averages for the first time since the beginning of April. Beneficial weather has pressured grains, but today, a sharp decline in soybean oil brought the soy complex lower. Soybean oil closed over 3% lower while meal was unchanged to lower.

  • Today’s export sales were on the poor side for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 5.4 million bushels of sales in 24/25 and an increase of 1.2 mb for 25/26. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Indonesia, and Japan. Last week’s export shipments of 7.7 mb were below the 13.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

  • In South America, estimates for Brazilian soybean production are beginning to rise with the highest estimates near 182.5 mmt, which would be significantly higher than the USDA’s most recent estimate of 169 mmt. In addition, Brazilian soybean exports for May are expected to be higher than expected at 15.0 mmt.

  • For the week, July soybeans lost 18-1/2 cents while November soybeans posted larger losses at 23 cents. July soybean meal was nearly unchanged at 0.1 higher to $296.30. July soybean oil lost 2.46 cents at 46.89 cents.

Soybean Futures Remain Range-Bound into June
Soybean futures tumbled below the key $10.00 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, triggering technical selling after breaking the March low. However, the decline was short-lived as buyers stepped in, lifting prices back above $10.00 and reclaiming key moving averages, including a clean break above the 200-day moving average — a level that now serves as solid support. With no fresh bullish catalyst and favorable weather weighing on sentiment, futures remain range-bound. The 200-day should continue to offer support, while resistance holds near the May high of $10.82.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures ended mixed Friday: Chicago slipped slightly, Kansas City posted small gains, and Minneapolis led again, though the July contract stalled at its 200-day moving average (626 ¾). Delayed harvests and 2–4 inches of forecasted rain in the Southern Plains helped support HRW prices. Technically, all three classes are forming the right shoulder of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern — a potential bullish signal.

  • The USDA reported a decrease of 4.7 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, but an increase of 26.1 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 18.4 mb fell under the 34.5 mb pace needed per week to reach their 24/25 export goal of 820 mb. Total 24/25 wheat shipments have reached 748 mb, up 13% from last year.

  • SovEcon recently increased their estimate of Russian wheat exports by 1.1 mmt to 40.8 mmt. However, the Russian deputy ag minister is projecting their 2025 wheat exports much higher, at 44.5 mmt. The minister is also estimating their total 2025 grain exports at 53 mmt.

  • Dry conditions persist in key Chinese wheat regions, prompting efforts to induce rainfall via cloud seeding using drones and artillery. Reports suggest rainfall could increase 4% over 8,000 sq km.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, dry weather in western and northern Argentina has allowed wheat planting to get off to a good start. The exchange is expecting a total planted area of 6.7 million hectares, with 10.5% of it now complete. Planting in eastern growing regions, however, may see delays due to recent heavy rainfall, which has also hindered corn and soybean harvest.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Potentially Finds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, reaching October highs above $6.15 before quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, prices slipped below key support near $5.30 but have since stabilized around $5.20. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could signal a trend reversal and open the door to broader gains.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Expect the first sales targets to post next week.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Support
With ample spring moisture across the Plains and sluggish demand, wheat futures have lacked bullish momentum, recently touching multi-year lows near $5.00 in early May—a level that has since held. A recovery above $5.40 would suggest a potential bottom is in place. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average marks initial resistance, with a stronger ceiling at the February highs near $6.40.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Runs Higher on Poor Conditions
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, with momentum accelerating in mid-February after a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. Although late-month weakness briefly pulled prices below key support, futures traded mostly sideways through spring. A sharp rally was triggered in late May after crop condition ratings came in at their second lowest in 40 years, sparking short covering. Prices are now back above a confluence of moving averages and nearing the top of the recent range. Key support sits just above $6.00, with the next upside target near February’s highs around $6.60.

Other Charts / Weather

|

5-29 End of Day: Mixed Grains: Wheat Leads, Corn Extends Losses, Soybeans Split

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures fell for a second straight session Thursday, led by July contracts, though prices pared losses after bouncing off session lows on support from fresh export sales.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended mixed Thursday, with new crop contracts edging higher, while old crop contracts slipped slightly after a volatile session that saw July fall below key moving averages amid improving weather forecasts.

  • 🌾 Wheat: All three wheat classes ended higher on Thursday, led by Minneapolis futures, which posted double-digit gains for a second session.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • With July corn continuing to hold support at 440, the strategy remains to hold out for potential upside volatility opportunities.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No adjustments needed at the moment. Positioned well for growing season volatility, with a good base of sales in place and both upside and downside targets active to begin legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The 474 target will be given this week. If it hasn’t been hit by Friday’s close, another sales recommendation may be made early next week based on the calendar and timing considerations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures extended losses for a second session Thursday, with July leading the decline. Prices bounced off session lows, supported by fresh export sales and strength in other grain markets.

  • Trading volume was the lightest of the week, suggesting selling pressure may be easing. July corn is down 12 ½ cents so far this week heading into Friday.

  • USDA announced two flash sales Thursday: 104,000 MT to Mexico and 101,096 MT to Unknown for 2024-25 delivery. Weekly export sales for the week ending May 22 will be released on Friday.

  • Weekly ethanol production climbed higher again this week up to 310.5 mil. gallons, up from 305 mil. the previous week. This total was down 1% from last year. A total of 105 mb of corn was used in production last week but has slipped behind the pace needed to reach the USDA target for the marketing year.

  • Weather will stay as the driver in the corn market in the near-term as forecasts moving into early June look friendly for crop development.

Corn Finds Support at 200-day
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April on a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures have come under renewed pressure in May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns have pushed prices back below $4.70. For now, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone and 200-day moving average have held. As planting wraps up, the market’s focus will shift quickly to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook calls for a warmer, drier pattern across the Western Corn Belt into June — potentially rekindling risk premium and setting the stage for weather-driven rallies. Initial resistance is expected near $4.70, with stronger resistance at the April highs around $4.90.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Still content with the 1107 target as long as 1036 support holds. If that support level is broken, the current strategy will need to be revisited and potentially adjusted.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • In about a week, another tranche of January put options may be recommended based on the calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Approaching the seasonal window where first sales targets could post at any time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the new crop contracts finishing higher while new crop was slightly lower. This came after a day of volatile trade, which saw July soybeans fall below the major moving averages to as much as 8 cents lower as weather forecasts improve. Soybean meal was higher while bean oil ended the day lower.

  • A U.S. trade court ruling late Wednesday deemed former President Trump’s China tariffs unlawful, raising speculation that soybean-related tariffs could be lifted—potentially boosting U.S. export prospects this fall, despite China’s current reliance on Brazilian supplies.

  • At this time, funds are estimated to hold a net long position in soybeans of around 10,000 contracts and are estimated to have a long position in soybean oil around 59,000 contracts. In soybean meal, however, they hold a net short position of over 100,000 contracts, which is a record short position and could trigger short covering at some point.

  • In Argentina, the recent rains and severe flooding near Buenos Aires will likely impact the country’s total production. One prominent South American crop scout has lowered their estimate by 1.6 mmt for total production of 48.5 mmt. In Brazil, soybean production is estimated near 170 mmt.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three wheat classes ended higher Thursday, led by Minneapolis futures, which posted double-digit gains for a second session. Support came from the spring wheat crop’s lower-than-expected 45% good/excellent rating, a bearish reversal in the U.S. Dollar Index, and strength in Paris milling wheat (Matif), which also saw a bullish reversal and positive close.

  • USDA data as of May 27 shows 16% of U.S. winter wheat acreage remains under drought conditions—down 5% from last week—likely reflecting recent rainfall in Kansas. However, spring wheat areas in drought held steady at 29%, a sharp contrast to just 3% a year ago, helping to fuel strength in Minneapolis prices.

  • According to the USDA, as of May 27, an estimated 16% of US winter wheat acreage is experiencing drought conditions. This is down 5% from last week and may largely be attributed to recent rains in Kansas. Spring wheat production areas in drought held steady, however, at 29% during the same timeframe. This is far above the 3% reading from a year ago, which may help to explain the boost today in Minneapolis prices. The European Commission has revised their estimate of EU 25/26 grain production from 280.3 mmt to 279.6 mmt. However, this was largely due to decreases in their corn estimate. In fact, their soft wheat harvest projection was raised by 0.3 mmt to 126.6 mmt.

  • LSEG cut its forecast for Canadian wheat output to 35.3 MMT, down 3% from its previous estimate, citing persistent dryness across the southern Prairies, especially in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. For comparison, USDA’s latest estimate stands slightly higher at 36 MMT.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • While 699.25 is still a long way off, it’s tough to justify adjusting it lower at this point — historically, when volatility shows up this time of year, it can be significant.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 633.50 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 633.50 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after June 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

    • Note: KC options are being used due to the strong correlation between KC and Minneapolis futures prices, as well as the greater liquidity found in the KC options market.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with KC 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above KC 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Above: From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

|

5-28 End of Day: Grain Markets Mixed as Corn and Soybeans Retreat, Wheat Diverges on Crop Conditions

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures fell sharply Tuesday as strong planting progress, early harvest reports from Brazil, and concerns about weakening U.S. export demand pressured the market.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended lower Tuesday, with July closing just below the 100-day moving average for the first time this month, as rapid U.S. planting progress, weaker soy product prices, and limited fresh news pressured the market.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed mixed after choppy trade, with Minneapolis leading to the upside following weaker-than-expected spring wheat condition ratings. In contrast, HRW wheat came under pressure as recent rains and warming temperatures are expected to benefit the crop.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • With July corn continuing to hold support at 440, the strategy remains to hold out for potential upside volatility opportunities.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No adjustments needed at the moment. Positioned well for growing season volatility, with a good base of sales in place and both upside and downside targets active to begin legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The 474 target will be given this week. If it hasn’t been hit by Friday’s close, another sales recommendation may be made early next week based on the calendar and timing considerations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures faced sharp selling pressure on Tuesday, with weakness in the July contract spilling over into the broader complex. The market was weighed down by strong planting progress, early harvest reports from Brazil, and growing concerns about waning U.S. export demand.

  • Brazil has just begun its harvest of their second crop corn. The weather has been very good for most regions, and the market is anticipating a strong crop. USDA is currently projecting this crop at 130 MMT, but there are “whisper” numbers up to 140 MMT.

  • Brazilian corn prices have fallen, making them competitive with U.S. exports. Reports suggest that some Asian buyers secured Brazilian supplies this week, raising the risk of U.S. export sales cancellations as demand shifts south.

  • U.S. planting is nearing completion, with the USDA reporting 87% of corn acres planted as of May 25, up 5 percentage points from last week. While national progress is on track, states like Illinois and others in the Eastern Corn Belt remain behind average, largely due to excessive rainfall. Final planting dates in these regions are fast approaching in early June.

  • USDA released the first initial corn crop ratings in Tuesday’s report. As of May 25, the USDA found that 68% of the crop was good/excellent. This was 5% below analysts’ expectations. These ratings were the third lowest in the past 10 years and 4% behind the 3-year average. Wet and cool temperatures limit a strong start in some areas and capped the first crop ratings.

Corn Finds Support at 200-day
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April on a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures have come under renewed pressure in May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns have pushed prices back below $4.70. For now, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone and 200-day moving average have held. As planting wraps up, the market’s focus will shift quickly to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook calls for a warmer, drier pattern across the Western Corn Belt into June — potentially rekindling risk premium and setting the stage for weather-driven rallies. Initial resistance is expected near $4.70, with stronger resistance at the April highs around $4.90.

Above: Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Still content with the 1107 target as long as 1036 support holds. If that support level is broken, the current strategy will need to be revisited and potentially adjusted.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • In about a week, another tranche of January put options may be recommended based on the calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Approaching the seasonal window where first sales targets could post at any time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower with the July contract closing just below the 100-day moving average for the first time since the beginning of the month. There has been little fresh news, but the continued quick planting pace and lower soy products were the primary pressure today.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw the soybean crop 76% planted, which compared to 66% last week and the 5-year average of 68%. 50% of the crop has emerged, and good to excellent ratings will likely come within a few weeks.

  • In Argentina, the recent rains and severe flooding near Buenos Aires will likely impact the country’s total production. One prominent South American crop scout has lowered their estimate by 1.6 mmt for total production of 48.5 mmt. In Brazil, soybean production is estimated near 170 mmt.

  • At this time, funds are estimated to hold a net long position in soybeans of around 10,000 contracts and are estimated to have a long position in soybean oil around 59,000 contracts. In soybean meal, however, they hold a net short position of over 100,000 contracts, which is a record short position and could trigger short covering at some point.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

Above: Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed mixed after choppy trade, with Minneapolis leading to the upside following weaker-than-expected spring wheat condition ratings. In contrast, HRW wheat came under pressure as recent rains and warming temperatures are expected to benefit the crop. Technically, both Chicago and Kansas City contracts have lost momentum, with daily stochastics and RSI indicators turning lower, while Minneapolis futures trend sideways to higher.

  • USDA’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat conditions declining 2 points to 50% good/excellent, while 75% of the crop is headed—above the 70% five-year average. Spring wheat planting reached 87% (vs. 80% avg.), and 60% of the crop has emerged. However, only 45% was rated good/excellent, missing expectations and supporting Minneapolis’ futures.

  • India’s wheat harvest is reportedly going well and is now expected to be about 4 mmt above last year’s crop. This could push their state reserves to 44 mmt this year, well above what is needed to meet domestic demand. This has effectively eliminated earlier anticipation that they might need to import wheat this year, which is now likely to pressure global prices. Despite this, however, the Indian government still has no plan to allow wheat exports, which were prohibited in 2022.

  • According to the German association of farm cooperatives, their nation’s 2025 wheat harvest is expected to total 21.01 mmt, which would be down 0.40 mmt from their previous estimate. However, if realized this would still be a 13.6% larger crop year over year. Yield reductions from late winter frosts and drought in the spring are cited as the reasons for the decline from the prior estimate.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • While 699.25 is still a long way off, it’s tough to justify adjusting it lower at this point — historically, when volatility shows up this time of year, it can be significant.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 633.50 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 633.50 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after June 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

Above: Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

    • Note: KC options are being used due to the strong correlation between KC and Minneapolis futures prices, as well as the greater liquidity found in the KC options market.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with KC 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above KC 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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5-27 End of Day: Grains Mixed to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures began the week on the defensive, with pressure from favorable crop weather and weakness in wheat weighing on new-crop contracts. However, July corn found modest support from strong weekly export shipment totals, helping limit losses in front-month trade.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed higher on the day, outperforming the broader grain complex. While overall trade was quiet, early strength was fueled by gains in palm and soybean oil. Both soybean meal and oil also finished higher, despite funds maintaining a heavy net short in the meal market.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures suffered double-digit losses across Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis, pressured by improving weather in the U.S. and Europe, a stronger U.S. dollar, and competitive global pricing—particularly from Russia. Paris milling wheat also declined, adding weight to the U.S. market.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

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Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • With July corn continuing to hold support at 440, the strategy remains to hold out for potential upside volatility opportunities.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No adjustments needed at the moment. Positioned well for growing season volatility, with a good base of sales in place and both upside and downside targets active to begin legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The 474 target will be given this week. If it hasn’t been hit by Friday’s close, another sales recommendation may be made early next week based on the calendar and timing considerations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures started the week under pressure, with July contracts finding modest support from strong export shipments. However, weakness in the wheat market and expectations for improving crop conditions weighed on new-crop contracts.

  • USDA reported corn export inspections at 1.396 MMT (55 mb) for the week ending May 22, bringing total shipments for the marketing year to 1.850 billion bushels—up 29% from a year ago. Inspections remain ahead of pace to meet USDA’s projection for the second-largest corn export program in five years.

  • USDA will release weekly crop progress on Tuesday afternoon. The expectation for corn planting is to reach 87% planted, up 9% from last week. Areas in the southern to eastern corn belt will be closely watched for progress as those regions have been behind pace due to wetness.

  • The first condition rating for the 2025/26 corn crop is also due Tuesday, with analysts expecting a Good/Excellent rating around 73% (range: 64–78%). Cooler, wetter weather across parts of the Corn Belt may weigh on early crop development by limiting growing degree day accumulation.

  • Harvest of Brazil’s second corn crop has begun, with AgRural estimating progress at 0.9%, down from 2% at this time last year. Brazil’s crop agency, CONAB, projects the safrinha crop at nearly 100 MMT as of its May estimate.

Corn Finds Support at 200-day
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April on a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures have come under renewed pressure in May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns have pushed prices back below $4.70. For now, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone and 200-day moving average have held. As planting wraps up, the market’s focus will shift quickly to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook calls for a warmer, drier pattern across the Western Corn Belt into June — potentially rekindling risk premium and setting the stage for weather-driven rallies. Initial resistance is expected near $4.70, with stronger resistance at the April highs around $4.90.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 18,234 contracts between May 13 – May 20, bringing their total position to a net short 103,210 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Still content with the 1107 target as long as 1036 support holds. If that support level is broken, the current strategy will need to be revisited and potentially adjusted.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • In about a week, another tranche of January put options may be recommended based on the calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Approaching the seasonal window where first sales targets could post at any time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher despite losses in the rest of the grain complex. Overall, soybeans traded quietly but had some early strength thanks to gains in both palm and soybean oil. Funds currently hold a record large net short position in soybean meal, but both meal and oil closed higher today.

  • Weekly export inspections for soybeans came in weak, totaling just 7.1 million bushels for the week ending May 22. Still, total inspections for the 2024/25 marketing year stand at 1.629 billion bushels—up 11% from last year.

  • Soybean acreage in India is reportedly set to shrink as farmers are looking to plant more corn and sugarcane due to higher returns. Lower oilseed output could force the world’s largest importer of edible oils to increase buying from other countries.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 25,753 contracts, which left them with a net long position of 12,654 contracts. They sold 10,123 contracts of bean oil and 4,721 contracts of meal.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 25,753 contracts between May 13 – May 20, bringing their total position to a net long 12,654 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures posted double-digit losses across all three U.S. exchanges to start the week, pressured by both global and domestic developments. Paris milling wheat futures also closed 4–5 euros lower, dragging on U.S. prices. A firmer U.S. dollar added headwinds for U.S. wheat on the export market.

  • Weekend rains across the U.S. southern and western Plains, along with scattered showers in Europe, eased immediate crop concerns. Heavier rainfall is expected next week in drier regions of France, Germany, and the UK, which further pressured futures.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 20.6 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 782 mb, up 16% from last year. The inspections pace is steady with the USDA’s estimate – total 24/25 exports are projected at 820 mb, up 16% from the year prior.

  • China’s National Meteorological Center is predicting rainfall through the early part of next week for key wheat growing regions, including Henan and Shaanxi. This should help to ease drought conditions there. Henan province recently issued weather alerts due to excessive heat, which was a threat to their crops.

  • Australian customs data indicates that they exported only 546,000 mt of wheat to China during the October – March timeframe, due to a lack of Chinese demand. This compares with 2.9 mmt in the first half of the 23/24 season and 4.4 mmt for the same period of the 22/23 season. This could significantly increase Australia’s wheat stocks, with some estimates as high as 8 mmt. For reference, the five-year average for their end of season wheat stocks is 3.3 mmt.

  • According to SovEcon, Russian spot wheat export values range from $248-$250 per mt FOB. And as reported by IKAR, Russian export values July onward are around $225 per mt FOB, which is down $2 from last week. Competition from Russia has been weighing on wheat prices globally. Furthermore, Interfax has stated that the 2025 Russian grain harvest is likely to exceed last year’s, which would also be bearish to prices.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • While 699.25 is still a long way off, it’s tough to justify adjusting it lower at this point — historically, when volatility shows up this time of year, it can be significant.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 633.50 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 633.50 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 18,002 contracts between May 13 – May 20, bringing their total position to a net short 108,893 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after June 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 637 contracts between May 13– May 20, bringing their total position to a net short 80,162 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

    • Note: KC options are being used due to the strong correlation between KC and Minneapolis futures prices, as well as the greater liquidity found in the KC options market.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with KC 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above KC 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,621 contracts between May 13 – May 20, bringing their total position to a net short 34,140 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com