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4-21 End of Day: Risk-off Trade Weighs on Grains Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Heavy selling in the equity markets limited upside for corn Monday; this came despite strong export inspections and a sharply lower U.S. Dollar.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures ended lower on Monday, surrendering overnight gains as broad-based weakness across outside markets weighed on the entire grain complex.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures ended lower on Monday, pressured by weakness in outside markets and beneficial rainfall across the Southern Plains over the weekend, with additional precipitation forecasted this week.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast and 10-day temperature anomaly forecast as well as the 14-day precipitation forecast for South America scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 546 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 495.50.

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, keep taking advantage of up days in the 487 to 512 range vs July to make catch-up sales.

    • No Changes: 546 vs July remains the price target to trigger the eighth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No Changes: Exit targets for December options remain unchanged, and no new sales targets posted today.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • No Changes: Following the recent recommendation to make a third sale, no new sales targets posted today.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures started the week on a softer note as risk-off sentiment, triggered by heavy selling in the equity markets, limited upside potential. Despite strong demand and a sharp break in the U.S. Dollar Index, corn struggled to find footing throughout the session.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index continued its downward trend, trading to its lowest level since April 2022. The weaker dollar has helped offset the impact of potential tariffs, kept U.S. corn competitive in the export market, and encouraged fund money flow into the commodity sector.

  • USDA released weekly export inspections during Monday’s session. For the week ending April 17, U.S. exporters shipped 1.703 MMT (67 mb) of corn. This total was above market analysts’ expectations and remains at a strong pace. Current corn inspections are running 29% over last year and exceed expectations to reach the USDA export target for the current marketing year by approximately 180 mb.

  • Traders are also awaiting Monday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report, with close attention on potential planting delays following recent wet weather across parts of the Corn Belt. However, some regions may surprise to the upside, as planting progress for corn and soybeans had been gaining momentum prior to the rains.

  • Expectations for South American corn production are also trending higher. Recent late-season rainfall has benefited crops in key areas, with Brazil now potentially on track for a corn crop exceeding 125 MMT. This could create additional pressure on U.S. export demand in the summer months.

Corn Starts April Strong
After spending much of March hovering just above key support at 450, corn futures have surged higher to start April. A friendly April WASDE report—highlighting stronger demand—has helped fuel the rally, with futures pushing through resistance at the 50-day moving average. The next upside target is the February highs just above 500, while near-term support is expected to be near 470, at the upper end of the previous trading range.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 70,997 contracts between April 8 – April 15, bringing their total position to a net long 124,573 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • New Plan B Target: While Plan A remains to make the next cash sale at 1093 vs November, markets don’t always cooperate. A new downside stop has been posted as a precaution in case the market falls short of that upside target. Key support for the current uptrend sits at 1016.75. A break below that level could signal a trend shift and reduce the odds of reaching the Plan A target. Grain Market Insider prefers to avoid selling on down days, but sometimes conditions call for flexibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures ended lower Monday, giving back overnight gains as widespread bearishness across outside markets pressured the entire grain complex. Equities, the U.S. Dollar, crude oil, and bond markets all traded lower amid tariff uncertainties and reports of tensions between President Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Both soybean meal and soybean oil futures also closed weaker.

  • In March, Chinese soybean imports from the U.S. rose 12% compared to the same period last year; however, this increase occurred before the latest round of tariffs were imposed. Brazil remains the dominant supplier to China’s soybean market.

  • Today’s export inspections report was once again middle of the road for soybeans where corn and wheat were above expectations. Soybean inspections totaled 20.2 million bushels for the week ending April 17. Total inspections for 24/25 are now at 1.568 bb, up 11% from the previous year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds turning bullish on soybeans as of April 15, buying back 76,616 contracts to flip to a new net long position of 26,169 contracts. Funds were also active in the products, purchasing 10,834 contracts of soybean oil and 28,030 contracts of soybean meal.crude oil this week of around 3 dollars a barrel.

Volatile Start to April for Soybeans
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April following newly announced tariffs, breaking key support near the 1000 level that had held firm through March. However, early April strength has since fueled a rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages—most notably the 200-day, which has capped rallies over the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now targeting the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average should offer support on any spring pullbacks.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 76,616 contracts between April 8 – April 15, bringing their total position to a net long 26,169 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Chicago wheat futures led the complex lower on Monday, despite the U.S. Dollar falling to a new near-term low and a positive close in Paris milling wheat futures. Pressure on U.S. wheat was likely tied to beneficial rainfall across the Southern Plains over the weekend, with more precipitation in the forecast. Additional spillover weakness from the equity markets may have weighed on sentiment, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down over 1,200 points at midday.

  • Weekly wheat inspections were pegged at 18.7 mb, which brings total 24/25 inspections to 691 mb, up 14% from last year. This is below the USDA’s estimated pace – they are estimating exports at 820 mb, which would be up 16% from the year prior.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $250-$252/mt, which was steady with the week before. Additionally, SovEcon said that Russia exported 450,000 mt of wheat last week versus 470,000 mt the prior week. SovEcon is estimating Russian wheat exports in April will total 2 mmt, which is far below the 5 mmt from April last year.

  • Chinese customs data indicates that for the month of March, their nation’s wheat and wheat flour imports totaled 190,000 mt – this is down 89.4% year over year for that month. Additionally, year to date imports declined 93% vs last year to just 300,000 mt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,693 contracts between April 8 – April 15, bringing their total position to a net short 96,439 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550-580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,462 contracts between April 8 – April 15, bringing their total position to a net short 47,372 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 7,689 contracts between April 8 – April 15, bringing their total position to a net short 21,155 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

7-day Precipitation Forecast from ag-wx.com

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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4-17 End of Day: Heading Into Holiday Weekend: Corn, Soybeans Close Lower; Wheat Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, April 18, in Observance of Good Friday

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: After a volatile trading session, corn futures ended the day in the red, despite another week of solid export sales.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures closed lower heading into the holiday weekend, even with export sales landing at the higher end of trade expectations in today’s report.

  • Wheat: Wheat prices lost strength from earlier in the session, ultimately finishing mixed. Pressure came from weaker export sales and fresh estimates pointing to increased global wheat production this year.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 546 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 495.50.

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, keep taking advantage of up days in the 487 to 512 range vs July to make catch-up sales.

    • Eighth Sales Rec: If July trades to 546 that will trigger the eighth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop. This is the seventh sales recommendation to date.

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Rally: The December ’25 contract has rallied roughly 30 cents from its March 31 low of 436.50.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2026 corn crop. This is the third sales recommendation to date.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Rally: The December ’26 contract has rallied roughly 30 cents from its March 31 low of 443.50 and is now encountering resistance around its February high of 472.50.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Despite another strong week of export sales, corn futures failed to find any traction and finished the trading week with mild losses as the most active July futures consolidated around the 490-price level. July corn futures finished the week 6 ¾ cents lower.

  • The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending April 10, U.S. exporters reported new sales of 1.562 MMT (61.5 MB). Corn sales commitments now total 2.228 bb in 2024-25 and are up 27% from a year ago. This total is still ahead of the recently adjusted USDA export pace. Mexico was the largest buyer of U.S. corn last week.

  • Front-end corn futures could be under pressure with corn movement and pricing. Pricing of May basis contract can bring sellers into the market as producers are looking to wrap up cash sales before getting into field work.

  • Weather will be a key focus over the weekend, with another round of rainfall expected across the Southern Plains. Continued wet conditions could further complicate the region’s already soggy fields, potentially delaying early-season planting progress.

  • Monday’s USDA Planting Progress report will give a view of the pace of planting in some areas, as producers are progressing on both early corn and soybean planting windows.

Corn Starts April Strong
After spending much of March hovering just above key support at 450, corn futures have surged higher to start April. A friendly April WASDE report—highlighting stronger demand—has helped fuel the rally, with futures pushing through resistance at the 50-day moving average. The next upside target is the February highs just above 500, while near-term support is expected to be near 470, at the upper end of the previous trading range.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • New Plan B Target: While Plan A remains to make the next cash sale at 1093 vs November, markets don’t always cooperate. A new downside stop has been posted as a precaution in case the market falls short of that upside target. Key support for the current uptrend sits at 1016.75. A break below that level could signal a trend shift and reduce the odds of reaching the Plan A target. Grain Market Insider prefers to avoid selling on down days, but sometimes conditions call for flexibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures ended the shortened holiday week lower, retreating by as much as 7 cents. Despite attempts over the past five sessions, soybeans failed to close above the 200-day moving average, highlighting the ongoing resistance at that level. Soybean meal also finished lower, while soybean oil gained ground, following the upward movement in crude oil.

  • Today’s export sales report saw soybean sales on the higher end of trade estimates, especially for new crop sales. The USDA reported 20.4 mb of soybean sales for 24/25 and 6.7 mb for 25/26. Primary destinations were to Mexico, the Netherlands, and Germany. Export shipments of 26.5 mb were above the 12.3 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange updated their crop progress report which shows 24/25 soybeans now 4.9% harvested which compares to 2.6% last week. Production is still estimated at 48.6 mmt. The Brazilian harvest is virtually complete with China as their top buyer.

  • For the week, May soybeans lost 6-1/4 cents while November gained 7 cents to $10.32-1/2. May soybean meal lost $4.00 to $295.60, and May soybean oil gained 0.52 cents to 47.87 cents. Soybean oil benefitted from an increase in crude oil this week of around 3 dollars a barrel.

Volatile Start to April for Soybeans
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April following newly announced tariffs, breaking key support near the 1000 level that had held firm through March. However, early April strength has since fueled a rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages—most notably the 200-day, which has capped rallies over the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now targeting the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average should offer support on any spring pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed mixed on the day after giving back earlier strength. Chicago and Minneapolis contracts posted modest gains, while Kansas City futures edged lower. Rainfall across key growing areas in Kansas may have pressured the Kansas City market, while there may have been some profit taking ahead of the three-day weekend.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 2.8 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 10.1 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 17.8 mb fell under the 21.4 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 820 mb. Total wheat sales commitments have reached 787 mb, up 14% from last year.

  • SovEcon is reported to have raised their estimate of Russia’s 2025 wheat crop production by 1.1 mmt to 79.7 mmt. On a related bullish note, Russia’s wheat stocks as of April 1 are said to be almost 50% less than they were a year ago.

  • According to the USDA, as of April 15, an estimated 34% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions; this is up 2% from last week. Spring wheat areas in drought held steady at 43%, however. Nonetheless, more moisture is needed for wheat growing regions.

  • FranceAgriMer has issued new estimates of French soft wheat exports for the 24/25 season. They lowered their projection of exports outside of the EU by 0.1 mmt to 3.1 mmt. However, they increased the forecast for exports within the EU from 6.28 mmt to 6.42 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550-580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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4-16 End of Day: Grains Rebound on Weaker Dollar

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, April 18, in Observance of Good Friday

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures ended modestly higher in a quiet session, with limited fresh news.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans finished higher, recovering from early session losses of up to 10 cents as a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar supported the broader commodity complex.

  • Wheat: All three U.S. wheat futures classes closed higher, supported by a sharply lower U.S. dollar, and spillover strength from corn and soybeans.

  • To see the updated 14-day U.S. and South American precipitation anomaly outlooks scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 546 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, keep taking advantage of up days in the 487 to 512 range vs July to make catch-up sales.

    • Eighth Sales Rec: If July trades to 546 that will trigger the eighth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop: 

  • NEW ALERT – Sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop today. This is the seventh sales recommendation to date.

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Rally: The December ’25 contract has rallied roughly 30 cents from its March 31 low of 436.50.

2026 Crop: 

  • NEW ALERT – Sell a portion of your 2026 corn crop today. This is the third sales recommendation to date.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Rally: The December ’26 contract has rallied roughly 30 cents from its March 31 low of 443.50 and is now encountering resistance around its February high of 472.50.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Quiet day in the corn market as prices finished with small gains on Wednesday’s session. Fresh news for the corn market was limited, but more weakness in the U.S. dollar helped support the grain markets as traders positioned ahead of the 3-day Easter weekend.

  • Weekly ethanol production fell to 1.012 million barrels/day, a 7-month low. While down from the previous week, production remains 3% above year-ago levels. Roughly 101 million bushels of corn were used—below the pace needed to meet USDA’s annual target.

  • The U.S. dollar continued to soften, nearing its lowest level since April 2022. The ongoing weakness in the dollar is broadly supportive for grain and commodity markets.

  • Weather will be closely watched over the weekend as another round of rainfall is slated for the southern Plains. This could compound the issues in that region regarding wetness and limit early-season planting pace.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. The current export sales pace is trending well ahead of the current USDA pace. Last week, corn export sales were within expectations, but slightly disappointing at 748,000 MT.

Corn Starts April Strong
After spending much of March hovering just above key support at 450, corn futures have surged higher to start April. A friendly April WASDE report—highlighting stronger demand—has helped fuel the rally, with futures pushing through resistance at the 50-day moving average. The next upside target is the February highs just above 500, while near-term support is expected to be near 470, at the upper end of the previous trading range.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 the third. These targets remain unchanged, and Grain Market Insider remains optimistic that the November contract could still reach them.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were higher to end the day after recovering from lower prices overnight that were down as much as 10 cents. The U.S. dollar fell sharply today which was likely supportive to commodities across the board, and fears of planting delays have likely been supportive as well. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher.

  • Planting concerns persist as some regions remain wet, though early planting has begun in select areas. Historically, soybeans planted by early May tend to yield better—21% of the crop is typically planted by May 1 on average.

  • Brazilian soybean exports are seen at 14.5 mmt for the month of April which compares to a previous estimate of 13.3 mmt. At this point, China is buying virtually all of its soybeans from Brazil and basically none from the U.S.

  • Brazil soybean prices have turned softer as harvest is in the back-end stages. China has been a strong purchaser on Brazil soybeans, up to 60-70 cargoes last week, including supplies for Feb-Mar 2026. Farmer selling has picked up, pressuring basis premiums in Brazil, limiting the strength in U.S. soybean prices.

Volatile Start to April for Soybeans
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April following newly announced tariffs, breaking key support near the 1000 level that had held firm through March. However, early April strength has since fueled a rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages—most notably the 200-day, which has capped rallies over the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now targeting the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average should offer support on any spring pullbacks.

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three U.S. wheat futures classes closed higher, supported by a sharply lower U.S. dollar, spillover strength from corn and soybeans, and a possible technical rebound after recent losses.

  • India’s wheat reserves rose to 11.8 MMT, a three-year high and well above the government’s 7.5 MMT target—a potentially bearish signal for global markets.

  • Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat harvest is forecast at 20.5 MMT, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. That’s 2 MMT above last year, with potential for further growth if a recent export tax reduction is extended. If realized, it would be Argentina’s second-largest wheat crop on record.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550-580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Above: From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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4-15 End of Day: Grain Futures Mixed: Corn, Soybeans Diverge; Wheat Slides

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, April 18, in Observance of Good Friday

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Mixed trade continued in the corn market, with old crop futures under selling pressure while deferred contracts found support.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed mixed, with front-month contracts under pressure while new crop futures gained on continued expectations for reduced planted acreage.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across the board, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and a weaker close in Matif wheat futures.

  • To see the updated 30-day percent of normal precipitation map for South America as well as the 8-14-day U.S. precipitation and temperature outlooks scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 546 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 495.50.

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, keep taking advantage of up days in the 487 to 512 range vs July to make catch-up sales.

    • Eighth Sales Rec: If July trades to 546 that will trigger the eighth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.75.

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all six sales to date, keep taking advantage of up days in the 460 to 480 range vs December to make catch-up sales.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a seventh sale for the new crop. Continue to stay patient if you are in line with the six sales recommendations.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: A third sales recommendation is likely tomorrow.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date.

    • Third Sale Rec: The December ’26 contract has rallied 30 cents from its March 31 low of 443.50 and is now encountering resistance at its February high of 472.50. It also has outperformed the December ’25 contract this month, which remains about 15 cents below its February high of 479.75.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Mixed market trade continues in the corn market as old crop corn futures see additional selling pressure, offset by buying strength in the deferred contracts. Bear spreading has narrowed the old crop/new crop spread despite a firm demand tone on the front end.

  • Market momentum remained subdued, with light holiday-week trade and a quiet news cycle contributing to lower activity. The lack of fresh headlines allowed front-month corn to drift lower in search of technical support.

  • USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Tuesday morning. Portugal stepped into the U.S. corn export market and purchased 110,000 MT of corn for the current marketing year. This was the second consecutive day of an old crop export sale.

  • Brazil’s second corn crop outlook continues to improve, supported by favorable weather and increased precipitation potential. The monsoon season in areas of Brazil has found a second leg, which should boost production and limit some overall concerns for the key second crop corn.

Corn Starts April Strong
After spending much of March hovering just above key support at 450, corn futures have surged higher to start April. A friendly April WASDE report—highlighting stronger demand—has helped fuel the rally, with futures pushing through resistance at the 50-day moving average. The next upside target is the February highs just above 500, while near-term support is expected to be near 470, at the upper end of the previous trading range.

Above: Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 the third. These targets remain unchanged, and Grain Market Insider remains optimistic that the November contract could still reach them.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the front months lower but new crop soybeans higher in more anticipation of smaller planted acres. May soybean futures are overbought with the stochastics showing a sell crossover, which may be adding pressure. Soybean meal was lower while soybean oil ended the day higher.

  • Yesterday, the USDA released the first progress report for soybean plantings. 2% of the crop is reported as planted, which compares to 3% last year and the 5-year average of 2% at this time. The 6-10 forecast shows above-average precipitation throughout most of the country, which could delay planting.

  • Today’s NOPA crush report saw soybean crush for March at 194.5 million bushels, which was below the average trade guess of 197.6 mb. This compared to 196.4 mb last year, and soybean oil stocks were seen at 1.498 billion pounds compared to estimates of 1.612 bp and 1.851 bp a year ago at this time.

  • Brazil soybean prices have turned softer as harvest is in the back-end stages. China has been a strong purchaser on Brazil soybeans, up to 60-70 cargoes last week, including supplies for Feb-Mar 2026. Farmer selling has picked up, pressuring basis premiums in Brazil, limiting the strength in U.S. soybean prices.

Volatile Start to April for Soybeans
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April following newly announced tariffs, breaking key support near the 1000 level that had held firm through March. However, early April strength has since fueled a rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages—most notably the 200-day, which has capped rallies over the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now targeting the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average should offer support on any spring pullbacks.

Above: Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across the board, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and a weaker close in Matif wheat futures. In addition, the extended weather forecast calling for more rain across the Southern Plains limited any rally attempts.

  • According to yesterday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report, winter wheat conditions slipped 1% from last week to 47% good to excellent – this compares to 55% good to excellent at this time last year. Additionally, 8% of the crop is headed, down from 10% last year but in line with the five-year average. Finally, spring wheat is 7% planted, up 1% from a year ago, but steady with the five-year average.

  • Warmer weather is expected across the Southern Plains this week, with temperatures potentially reaching the 90s as far north as central Kansas. However, meaningful rainfall is forecast for Easter weekend, and the outlook remains wet into the end of April—supportive for crop development.

  • France’s agriculture ministry raised its estimate for soft wheat planted area to 4.63 million hectares, up from 4.57 million in February and 10% higher year-over-year. The ministry also reported that overall wheat conditions are improving as the season progresses.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550-580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

Above: Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Above: Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

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4-14 End of Day: Grains Mixed to Lower on Weather Pressure and Technical Selling

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures declined to start the week, pulling back from overbought conditions as spillover weakness from the wheat market added pressure.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day mixed, with front-month contracts closing lower while new crop prices firmed on bear spreading.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes, led by double-digit losses in Kansas City contracts. The downturn was largely driven by forecasts for beneficial rains in the U.S. Southern and Southwestern Plains.

  • To see the updated 14-day precipitation anomaly outlook for South America as well as the 7-day U.S. precipitation outlook scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 546 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 495.50.

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, keep taking advantage of up days in the 487 to 512 range vs May to make catch-up sales. After tomorrow’s close, this target range will shift to the July futures contract.

    • New Sales Target: 546 is the new target to trigger making an eighth sale on the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.75.

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all six sales to date, today remains a good opportunity to work toward getting caught up — with the close at 462, slightly above the average sales price of 460.75 to date.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a seventh sale for the new crop. Continue to stay patient if you are in line with the six sales recommendations.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a third sale for the new crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures softened to start the week despite firm underlying demand. Pressure stemmed from weakness in the wheat market and long liquidation, which weighed on corn prices.

  • Front-month contracts bore the brunt as profit-taking narrowed the old crop/new crop spread. Increased grain movement, with producers marketing bushels ahead of the planting window, also added pressure.

  • USDA announced a flash sale of corn on Monday morning. Japan stepped into the U.S. corn export market and purchased 120,000 MT (4.7 mb) for the current marketing year.

  • Weekly corn export inspections were very strong in the USDA export inspections report. For the week ending April 10, U.S. Exporters shipped 1.829 MMT of corn. This total was above market expectations. Total corn shipments are running 30% above last year’s pace and still ahead of the USDA-raised export target for the marketing year.

  • Brazil’s second corn crop outlook continues to improve, supported by favorable weather and increased precipitation potential. CONAB recently raised production estimates, and trends remain positive as the growing season advances.

Corn Starts April Strong
After spending much of March hovering just above key support at 450, corn futures have surged higher to start April. A friendly April WASDE report—highlighting stronger demand—has helped fuel the rally, with futures pushing through resistance at the 50-day moving average. The next upside target is the February highs just above 500, while near-term support is expected to be near 470, at the upper end of the previous trading range.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,181 contracts between April 1 – April 8, bringing their total position to a net long 53,576 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Catch-Up Target Hit: If you haven’t made all three sales to date, make a catch-up sale today as the May contract hit the 1047 target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 14.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 the third. These targets remain unchanged, and Grain Market Insider remains optimistic that the November contract could still reach them.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with a lower close in the front months but higher new crop prices in bear spreading action. Traders continue to expect a smaller acreage number this season supporting the back months. It was interesting that soybeans were only down slightly when soybean meal lost $2.50 and soybean oil lost 1.03 cents in the May contracts.

  • Today’s export inspections report was middle of the road for soybeans with 20.1 million bushels inspected for the week ending April 10 and was between the average trade estimates. Total inspections for 24/25 are now at 1.547 billion bushels, which is up 11% from the previous year.

  • March NOPA crush is projected at 197.6 million bushels, which would mark a record for the month of March. This follows a five-month low in February but still falls short of December’s 205 million bushels.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 20,600 contracts of soybeans increasing their net short position to 50,447 contracts. They bought 35,887 contracts of bean oil and 3,103 contracts of meal. Funds are estimated to have bought back 26,000 contracts of beans over the past three days.

Volatile Start to April for Soybeans
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April following newly announced tariffs, breaking key support near the 1000 level that had held firm through March. However, early April strength has since fueled a rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages—most notably the 200-day, which has capped rallies over the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now targeting the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average should offer support on any spring pullbacks.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 20,600 contracts between April 1 – April 8, bringing their total position to a net short 50,447 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes, led by double-digit losses in Kansas City contracts. The downturn was largely driven by forecasts for beneficial rains in the U.S. Southern and Southwestern Plains. Additional pressure came from profit-taking after Friday’s rally and futures encountering technical resistance.

  • Weekly wheat inspections were pegged at 22.2 mb, bringing total 24/25 inspections to 672 mb, which is up 14% from last year. On last week’s WASDE report, the USDA dropped their estimate of 24/25 wheat exports from 835 mb to 820 mb, which would still be up 16% from the year prior.

  • Russian wheat export values declined by $1 last week, to $250/MT FOB, according to IKAR. SovEcon reported weekly Russian wheat exports at 450,000 MT—up 30,000 MT from the previous week—but expects total April shipments to reach only 1.9 MMT, significantly below the 5 MMT exported in April 2024.

  • Analyst APK-Inform has estimated that the Ukrainian 2025 grain harvest may increase by 8% to 57.5 mmt, largely due to a bigger corn crop. They also estimated Ukraine will harvest 21.5 mmt of wheat, which would be down from the 22 mmt crop in 2024. Finally, APK-Inform projected Ukraine’s 25/26 total grain exports would increase by 11% to 42.6 mmt.

  • The CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report indicated that as of the week ending April 8, money managers bought almost 10,000 contracts of Chicago wheat – this is nearly a 9% reduction in their net short position, which now sits at just over 102,000 contracts. During the same period, they increased their net short in Kansas City wheat by more than 4,000 contracts (or just over 9%) to nearly 50,000 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 9,908 contracts between April 1 – April 8, bringing their total position to a net short 102,132 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550-570 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,159 contracts between April 1 – April 8, bringing their total position to a net short 49,834 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 164 contracts between April 1 – April 8, bringing their total position to a net short 28,844 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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4-11 End of Day: Grains Rally into Weekend on Weaker U.S. Dollar

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures closed the week with strong gains, as fresh money flowed into the grain markets following Thursday’s friendly USDA Supply and Demand report.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended the week sharply higher, supported by an early-morning sale to unknown destinations and a sharply lower U.S. dollar.

  • Wheat: Wheat climbed higher to end the week, led by gains in Chicago futures. Support came from another sharp drop in the U.S. dollar, and spillover strength from corn and soybeans.

  • To see the updated Grace Based Root Zone Soil Moisture Map for South America as well as the 7-day U.S. precipitation outlook scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, take advantage of today’s additional price strength as another catch-up opportunity. Six of the seven prior sales recommendations were made between 487 and 512 (see below recommendations table). With the May contract pushing above the lower end of that range today, this is a second chance to get caught up at price levels previously recommended by Grain Market Insider.

    • No Changes: Still no new recommendations for making an eighth sale. Patience is still advised if you are in line with the seven sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • First Catch-Up Opportunity: If you haven’t made all six sales to date, aim for 459 vs December as your first catch-up target.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a seventh sale for the new crop. Continue to stay patient if you are in line with the six sales recommendations.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a third sale for the new crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished with strong gains to end the week as money flow moved into the grain markets after yesterday’s friendly USDA Supply/Demand report. July corn futures ended at their highest level since February 27, finishing just shy of the key psychological 500 mark. For the week, July gained 29 ¾ cents.

  • The USDA lowered 2024-25 corn carryout to 1.465 BB, coming in below trade expectations. The tighter supply outlook helped trigger fresh buying, with many analysts suggesting carryout could tighten further amid continued strong demand.

  • New crop prices led the rally Friday, supported by growing concerns over longer-term supply. With a smaller old crop carry-in, new crop balance sheets could tighten quickly if production disappoints—even with the large acreage forecasted this spring.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index broke to its lowest levels since 2022, before finding some support. A friendly inflation report helped trigger a weaker dollar in the Friday session. The weaker dollar should help keep U.S. corn export prices competitive globally despite the recent tariff activity.

  • Despite a counter move by the Chinese government raising tariffs to 145% on U.S. goods on Thursday, the grain markets shook off the news. In the near-term, China has “zero” bushels of old crop corn on the export books, and minimal soybeans. The longer-term demand could be a factor if the current trade war continues.

Corn Starts April Strong
After spending much of March hovering just above key support at 450, corn futures have surged higher to start April. A friendly April WASDE report—highlighting stronger demand—has helped fuel the rally, with futures pushing through resistance at the 50-day moving average. The next upside target is the February highs just above 500, while near-term support is expected to be near 470, at the upper end of the previous trading range.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you haven’t made all three sales to date, aim for 1047 vs May as your first catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 14.

    • One Change: The target to buy call options on a close above 1079.75 has been cancelled, leaving the 1107 sales target as the only active target.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 the third. These targets remain unchanged, and Grain Market Insider remains optimistic that the November contract could still reach them.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the week on a higher note across the entire soy complex supported by the early morning sale of 121,000 mt of U.S. soybeans to an unknown destination and by a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar, which fell to multiyear lows.

  • Soybean futures also gained support as strong Chinese demand drove Brazilian soybean prices sharply higher, lifting them to a premium of nearly 20 cents per bushel to the U.S. offerings. Additionally, market chatter suggests China may continue large-scale purchases of Brazilian soybeans through September 2025.

  • As China ramps up its soybean purchases from South America, fewer South American soybeans remain available for the rest of the world—potentially opening the door for increased demand for U.S. soybeans. Brazilian farmers report having already sold over 50% of this year’s soybean harvest, marking a record for April.

  • Upcoming weather may pose a bearish factor for both U.S. and Brazilian growing regions, with forecasts predicting periods of moisture and a slight increase in temperatures across Brazil. While some areas in the Midwest and Eastern U.S. are dealing with saturated soils, it remains too early to give these conditions significant weight. However, with U.S. soybean acreage expected to drop to a five-year low, even minor weather issues in the U.S. this summer could tighten both the U.S. and global balance sheets.

  • Adding to an already thin bullish fundamental outlook is another reduction in Argentina’s soybean production forecast, lowered by 1 million metric tons due to decreased acreage. Additionally, frost may have affected some of the production in the region.

Volatile Start to April for Soybeans
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April following newly announced tariffs, breaking key support near the 1000 level that had held firm through March. However, early April strength has since fueled a rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages—most notably the 200-day, which has capped rallies over the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now targeting the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average should offer support on any spring pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat climbed higher, led by Chicago futures. Strength can be attributed to a higher close for Paris milling wheat futures, another sharp decline for the U.S. dollar, and spillover support from higher corn and soybeans. Additionally, news outlets are reporting that Russian winter crops may have seen some hail damage earlier in the week.

  • According to the USDA as of April 8, an estimated 32% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions – this is up 1% from the week prior. Spring wheat production areas in drought increased from 39% to 43% during the same timeframe.

  • Ukraine’s agriculture ministry has reported that their total grain exports have reached 33.8 mmt since the season began on July 1. This is down about 8.8% year over year. Of the total, wheat accounts for 13.4 mmt , which was approximately 8% lower year over year.

  • The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia has estimated that their wheat planted area will fall by about 400,000 hectares this year to 4.19 million. This is a decline of 9% and is said to be partly due to a lack of available fallow land.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550–570 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Other Charts / Weather

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4-10 End of Day: Thursday’s USDA Report Drives Movement Across Grain Markets

ByLisa Heder

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Today’s release of the USDA’s Supply and Demand report helped drive corn futures significantly higher, thanks to larger-than-expected cuts to the US corn carryout projection.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans finished the day posting gains, thanks to some favorable tariff news out of the EU and an encouraging WASDE report.

  • Wheat: The USDA report caused the wheat market to close lower overall today, after releasing bearish data that weighed on prices.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target Hit Today: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, now’s the time to start catching up — the first catch-up target of 477 vs May has been hit.

    • No Changes: Still no new recommendations for making an eighth sale. Patience is still advised if you are in line with the seven sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you haven’t made all six sales to date, aim for 459 vs December as your first catch-up target.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a seventh sale for the new crop. Continue to stay patient if you are in line with the six sales recommendations.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a third sale for the new crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A larger than expected cut in the US corn carryout projection helped push corn futures strongly higher on Thursday after the USDA Supply/Demand report. July corn futures traded to its highest level since February 28 on the session.

  • The USDA lowered corn carryout for the 2024-35 marketing year to 1.465 BB, down 75 mb from last month. The USDA added 100 mb to export demand but removed 25 mb from feed demand to reach the 75 mb reduction. The carryout of 1.465 bb was well below analysts’ expectations, supporting prices.

  • Weekly export sales for corn were lackluster in this week’s USDA export sales report. For the week ending April3, US exporters posted new sales of 786,000 MT for the current marketing year. South Korea was the largest buyer of U.S. corn last week. Total corn export sales on the books are still supportive of prices and trending 25% over last year.

  • Brazil ag agency, CONAB, released their projection for corn production to 124.76 MMt, up nearly 2 MMT from their March forecast. 1.3 MMT of that projected production raise came from the key second crop corn. In similar fashion, the Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina raised its production forecast 4 MMt for 48.5 MMT from their March projection. Favorable weather overall has helped build the production boost.

Corn Finds Support Ahead of Growing Season
After surging to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures experienced a sharp pullback, spending much of March testing key technical support levels. As spring planting approaches in earnest, futures have stabilized around the 450 level — a zone that’s likely to continue acting as near-term support into the early part of the growing season. If this area fails to hold, stronger support is expected near the 200-day moving average, currently around 430. On the upside, the first resistance comes at the 100-day moving average, followed by the March highs and the 50-day moving average near the 470 level.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you haven’t made all three sales to date, aim for 1047 vs May as your first catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 14.

    • One Change: The target to buy call options on a close above 1079.75 has been cancelled, leaving the 1107 sales target as the only active target.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 the third. These targets remain unchanged, and Grain Market Insider remains optimistic that the November contract could still reach them.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher following positive tariff news out of the EU this morning, and gains were further supported by a slightly friendly WASDE report. However, export sales were disappointing, and China remains an unreliable buyer at this point. Soybean meal also finished higher, while soybean oil closed lower, tracking weakness in crude oil.

  • Today’s WASDE report saw US soybean ending stocks falling slightly by 5 mb to 375 mb as crushings were increased by 10 mb. World stockpiles were increased to 122.5 mmt from 121.4 mmt, and both Brazilian and Argentinian soybean production were unchanged.

  • Today’s export sales report was poor and below the bottom range of analyst expectations. China was the top buyer, but it was a small amount and likely purchased by Sino grain which is run by the Chinese government and is not subject to the tariffs. The USDA reported an increase of 6.3 mb of bean exports for 24/25 and none for 25/26. Last week’s export shipments of 28.1 were above the 13.0 mb needed each week.

  • China has purchased only a minimal amount of soybeans so far this year, making the tariff news bullish overall, but particularly supportive for soybean oil. With tariffs on Chinese cooking oil now so high, imports are likely to slow, boosting domestic demand.

Soybeans Break Lower on Tariff News
The newly announced tariffs in early April caused soybean futures to drop sharply, breaking previously held support near the 1000 level that had sustained the market throughout March. Should the decline persist, support is expected to emerge around the December lows at 950. Conversely, if prices rally, initial resistance will be encountered at the 1000 level, followed by a confluence of major moving averages between 1020 and 1030. Of these, the 200-day moving average has proven particularly challenging for the soybean market to break above, restricting gains for nearly the last year and a half.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across all three classes following somewhat bearish data from the USDA report. However, a significant drop in the US Dollar Index may have helped limit the downside movement for wheat futures. Grain markets, in general, will remain sensitive to new tariff developments and headlines.

  • On today’s WASDE report, US 24/25 wheat endings stocks came in at 846 mb. This was above 819 mb in March, as well as the average pre-report estimate of 822 mb. Global 24/25 wheat carryout was pegged at 260.7 mmt, which was down 0.1 mmt from the trade guess, but was above last month’s 260.1 mmt.

  • Also on today’s report, the USDA increased US wheat imports by 10 mb and lowered exports by 15 mb. Furthermore, Russian exports were raised by 1 mmt, while Canada and Ukraine were also both up 0.5 mmt. There were declines to both EU and Australian exports, by 0.5 mmt each.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 3.9 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 4.0 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 12.5 mb, which falls below the 22.0 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export target. Sales commitments have reached 784 mb for 24/25, which is up 13% from last year.

  • According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Pakistani wheat imports are expected to reach 1.7 mmt in the 25/26 season that begins in May. While this would fall below the 23/24 level, it would be 100,000 mt above the 24/25 season. The reason for the increase is because production is expected to fall 13% year over year to 27.5 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550–570 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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4-9 End of Day: Grain Markets Rally Following Announcement of 90-Day Tariff Pause

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn markets closed the day higher, fueled by new tariff headlines and continued strong demand for U.S. corn.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day higher following news of a 90-day delay on tariffs for most countries, excluding China, whose tariff was increased to 125% effective immediately.

  • Wheat: Wheat markets remain the least affected by tariff-related news and closed the midweek trade with gains. However, the stronger U.S. dollar may limit any further upside potential for wheat.

  • Too see the updated 5-day ECWMF precipitation forecast for the U.S., the 7-day ECWMF precipitation forecast for South America, as well as USDA winter wheat ratings, scroll down the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, aim for 477 vs May as your catch-up target.

    • No New Targets: Still no new recommendations for making an eighth sale. Old crop contracts continue to lead, and we’re content to remain patient for another day.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you haven’t made all six sales to date, aim for 459 vs December as your first catch-up target.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a seventh sale for the new crop.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Target Hit: The move to 456 vs December ’26 triggered the current sales recommendation.

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market rallied into the session’s close, finishing with moderate gains driven by demand and the latest tariff news.

  • During the session, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries, except China. China tariffs were increased to 125% on imports of Chinese goods to counter the increased tariffs China installed last night. The announced pause for 90 days in tariffs sent markets sharply higher across most markets. Corn futures traded off the lows for the session.

  • USDA will release weekly exports sales on Thursday morning for corn. For the week ending April 3, new corn sales are expected to range from 700,000 MT –1.3 MMT for the current marketing year. Last week’s sales totaled 1.173 MMT as export demand remains strong.

  • The USDA will release the April WASDE report on Thursday. Expectations for the report could show reduced corn carryout if USDA raises export demand. However, adjustments to feed use and tariff impacts may delay major changes until later reports. Current analyst expectations are for corn carryout to be reduced to 1.510 mb, down 30 mb from the March report.

  • Brazil Agriculture agency, CONAB, will release the next round of production estimates early on Thursday morning. The corn market will be looking for an adjustment in the Brazil corn crop, especially on the key second crop corn.

Corn Finds Support Ahead of Growing Season
After surging to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures experienced a sharp pullback, spending much of March testing key technical support levels. As spring planting approaches in earnest, futures have stabilized around the 450 level — a zone that’s likely to continue acting as near-term support into the early part of the growing season. If this area fails to hold, stronger support is expected near the 200-day moving average, currently around 430. On the upside, the first resistance comes at the 100-day moving average, followed by the March highs and the 50-day moving average near the 470 level.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 1107 remains the target to trigger a fourth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher following breaking news that President Trump would suspend tariffs on most countries for 90 days, while increasing Chinese tariffs to 125% effective immediately. Both soybean meal and oil also rallied in response to the news.

  • China has purchased only a minimal amount of soybeans so far this year, making the tariff news bullish overall, but particularly supportive for soybean oil. With tariffs on Chinese cooking oil now so high, imports are likely to slow, boosting domestic demand.

  • Tomorrow, the USDA will release its WASDE report, and estimates show U.S. ending stocks increasing slightly by 2 mb to 382 mb and exports being reduced by 8 mb. World ending stocks are expected to increase slightly to 121.9 mmt.

  • The Bloomberg survey for Brazilian soybean production has estimated the figure just slightly below CONAB’s last guess at 167.8 mmt compared to CONAB’s 167.37. The range is between 167 and 169 mmt.

Soybeans Break Lower on Tariff News
The newly announced tariffs in early April caused soybean futures to drop sharply, breaking previously held support near the 1000 level that had sustained the market throughout March. Should the decline persist, support is expected to emerge around the December lows at 950. Conversely, if prices rally, initial resistance will be encountered at the 1000 level, followed by a confluence of major moving averages between 1020 and 1030. Of these, the 200-day moving average has proven particularly challenging for the soybean market to break above, restricting gains for nearly the last year and a half.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Markets rallied into the close after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries, excluding China. While wheat finished the day in positive territory, the gains were modest, as wheat seems to have been least affected by the tariff news. However, today’s lower close for Matif wheat futures, combined with the stronger U.S. dollar, may have limited the upside potential for the U.S. wheat market.

  • Tomorrow, traders will receive the USDA’s monthly supply and demand data. No major changes are expected for the wheat market though. U.S. 24/25 wheat carryout is expected to increase slightly, from 819 mb last month to 822 mb on the average pre-report estimate. World ending stocks are anticipated to be neutral as well – the average guess is 260.8 mmt versus 260.1 mmt in March.

  • According to IKAR, Russian 2025 grain production is estimated at 129.5 mmt, which is up from last year’s 125.9 mmt. Of the 2025 total, however, wheat is expected to account for 82.5 mmt, which would be slightly above the level from a year ago.

  • The European Commission has stated that since the season began on July 1, EU soft wheat exports have reached 16.4 mmt as of April 6. This represents a 34% decline from the 25 mmt shipped during the same period last year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to try forming a base in the 550–570 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

|

4-8 End of Day: Bull Spreading Continues in Corn and Soybeans

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: The corn market remained bull-spread on Tuesday, with front-end contracts showing strength while the deferred months stayed under pressure.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended mixed again, with the front three months posting gains while deferred contracts slipped, signaling continued bull spreading.

  • Wheat: Wheat finished in the green across all classes, buoyed by a weaker U.S. Dollar Index, a stronger close in Paris futures, and lower crop ratings compared to last year.

  • Too see the updated 14-day ECMWF precipitation anomalies for South America, as well as the 7-day precipitation outlook for the U.S., scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, aim for 477 vs May as your catch-up target.

    • No New Targets: Still no new recommendations for making an eighth sale. Old crop contracts continue to lead, and we’re content to remain patient for another day.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you haven’t made all six sales to date, aim for 459 vs December as your first catch-up target.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a seventh sale for the new crop.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Target Hit: The move to 456 vs December ’26 triggered the current sales recommendation.

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market remained bull-spread in the Tuesday session as front-end contracts saw buying strength as deferred contracts stayed under pressure. The market is caught between robust old crop demand and uncertainty over long-term demand, driven by tariff concerns and projections for a large corn acreage this spring.

  • Volatility continues to dominate trade across all markets. On Monday, the Trump administration announced a new 50% tariff on Chinese goods in response to China’s retaliatory tariff issued last Friday. The new measure is set to take effect at midnight tonight.

  • USDA announced a flash sale of corn on the export market.  Spain purchased 240,000MT (9.45 mb) of U.S. corn for the 2024-25 marketing year. This was the first announced flash sale of corn since March 14.

  • The April WASDE report, due Thursday, could show reduced corn carryout if USDA raises export demand. However, adjustments to feed use and tariff impacts may delay major changes until later reports. Current analyst expectations are for corn carryout to be reduced to 1.510 mb, down 30 mb from the March report.

Corn Finds Support Ahead of Growing Season
After surging to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures experienced a sharp pullback, spending much of March testing key technical support levels. As spring planting approaches in earnest, futures have stabilized around the 450 level — a zone that’s likely to continue acting as near-term support into the early part of the growing season. If this area fails to hold, stronger support is expected near the 200-day moving average, currently around 430. On the upside, the first resistance comes at the 100-day moving average, followed by the March highs and the 50-day moving average near the 470 level.

Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 1107 remains the target to trigger a fourth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed again to end the day with the three front months higher but deferred contracts lower in more bull spreading. Equity markets initially rebounded today, which lifted all grains and livestock, but both faded into the end of the day. Soybean meal ended higher while soybean oil was lower.

  • Today, the White House press secretary said that President Trump’s tariffs on China would go into effect just after midnight tonight. With the initial 20% tariffs he placed on China at the start of his term combined with the new 34% tariffs and now additional 50% tariffs as a result of China’s retaliation, this would bring China’s total tariff rate to 104%. There is optimism that an agreement can be made soon with China and all other countries.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections at 804k tons which compared to 813k the previous week and 492k tons a year ago. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and Mexico.

  • In Brazil, a key Amazon shipping route has been disrupted by Indigenous protests and deteriorating road conditions. Global grain giants like Cargill and Bunge, which have significant operations in the region, are experiencing delays at the river port of Miritituba as a result.

Soybeans Break Lower on Tariff News
The newly announced tariffs in early April caused soybean futures to drop sharply, breaking previously held support near the 1000 level that had sustained the market throughout March. Should the decline persist, support is expected to emerge around the December lows at 950. Conversely, if prices rally, initial resistance will be encountered at the 1000 level, followed by a confluence of major moving averages between 1020 and 1030. Of these, the 200-day moving average has proven particularly challenging for the soybean market to break above, restricting gains for nearly the last year and a half.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with green on the screen for each class, supported by a lower US Dollar Index, higher close for Paris futures, and lower crop ratings compared with a year ago. Nationally, US winter wheat was rated 48% good to excellent, compared to 56% at this time last year, and 55% in the final November report.

  • In addition to winter wheat ratings, the USDA also reported that 3% of the US spring wheat crop was planted as of April 6. This is steady with the five-year average and also in line with a year ago.

  • Russia is expected to remain the top global wheatexporter through the 2024–25 season, according to Rusagrotrans. The country is projected to hold a 22% share of the global market (excluding flour), with total exports reaching 40.8 MMT.

  • Argus has estimated Ukraine’s 2025–26 wheat crop at 23.7 MMT, unchanged from their November forecast. If realized, this would mark an increase from 22.3 MMT in 2024–25 and the highest output since the 2021–22 season. Projected yields for 2025–26 are 4.51 tons per hectare, above the five-year average of 4.34.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to try forming a base in the 550–570 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 695.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations were made prior to last week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 646.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations were made prior to last week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2025 crop.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Spring wheat percentage planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

|

4-7 End of Day: Wheat Leads Grains Higher Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Front-end corn contracts started the week with moderate gains, supported by buying strength. Deferred contracts lagged amid expectations for large acreage and demand concerns tied to tariffs.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended mixed with front months higher and deferred contracts lower in bull spreading. Futures spiked early on a false report of a 90-day tariff pause, but gains faded once the headline was debunked.

  • Wheat: Wheat led grain gains today, appearing least affected by tariff concerns. Strength in Matif wheat also supported U.S. prices.

  • Too see the updated two-week U.S. precipitation ranks by climate district, 6-10 day U.S. temperature and precipitation outlooks as well as the 10-day ECMWF precipitation anomalies for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No New Targets: No new targets to note at this time. The corn market is holding up surprisingly well given how other markets have reacted since ‘Liberation Day’. A positive sign for higher prices ahead? Continue to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No updates to active options targets, and no new sales targets have been posted at this time. Given how well the corn market is holding up, we’re content to continue sitting tight — with only the options exit targets currently active.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • MO: The Grain Market Insider strategy is built on a foundation of early corn sales.

    • Target Hit: The move to 456 vs December ’26 triggered the current sales recommendation.

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The front end of the corn markets saw buying strength to start the week as old crop contract finished with moderate gains. The expectation of a large acre forecast, and possible demand concerns due to tariffs, limited the deferred contracts on the session.

  • USDA announced corn export inspections during the morning. For the week ending April 3, US exporters shipped 62.3 mb of corn. Total corn export shipments for the 2024-25 marketing year are at 1.401 bb, up 30% over last year.

  • Heavy rainfall in the southern corn belt over the weekend brings concerns of possible delayed planting and a possible shifting of acres. Some analysts feel that producers could move away from some early planted soybeans and shift to additional corn acres.

  • The April WASDE report, due Thursday, could show reduced corn carryout if USDA raises export demand. However, adjustments to feed use and tariff impacts may delay major changes until later reports.

  • Recent rainfall in Brazil will likely support the development of the second corn crop. In addition, Brazil farmers were strong sellers as the tariff news supported Brazil cash prices on the prospects of improved global demand for Brazil grains.

Corn Finds Support Ahead of Growing Season
After surging to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures experienced a sharp pullback, spending much of March testing key technical support levels. As spring planting approaches in earnest, futures have stabilized around the 450 level — a zone that’s likely to continue acting as near-term support into the early part of the growing season. If this area fails to hold, stronger support is expected near the 200-day moving average, currently around 430. On the upside, the first resistance comes at the 100-day moving average, followed by the March highs and the 50-day moving average near the 470 level.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 17,850 contracts between March 25 – April 1, bringing their total position to a net long 56,757 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No updates to the active option target or the single sales target at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the three front months higher but deferred contracts lower in bull spreading action. Futures were volatile today spiking as much as 20 cents higher this morning after a fake headline went out that Trump would be pausing the tariffs on all countries apart from China for 90 days. This news was debunked, and prices came back down shortly after.

  • Soybean meal ended the day higher after May made a new contract low on Friday as South America sees good weather overall. Soybean oil followed crude oil lower which lost over 7 dollars a barrel on Friday amid the decline in equity markets and tariff negotiations.

  • In Brazil, a major Amazon shipping route has been disrupted by Indigenous protesters and poor road conditions. Major global grains traders like Cargill and Bunge have important operations there, and the river port of Miritituba has seen shipping delays as a result.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 13,112 contracts as of April 1, before the tariffs were announced, which left them with a net short position of 29,847 contracts. They were buyers of soybean oil by 38,856 contracts and sellers of bean meal by 16,683 contracts.

Soybeans Break Lower on Tariff News
The newly announced tariffs in early April caused soybean futures to drop sharply, breaking previously held support near the 1000 level that had sustained the market throughout March. Should the decline persist, support is expected to emerge around the December lows at 950. Conversely, if prices rally, initial resistance will be encountered at the 1000 level, followed by a confluence of major moving averages between 1020 and 1030. Of these, the 200-day moving average has proven particularly challenging for the soybean market to break above, restricting gains for nearly the last year and a half.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 13,112 contracts between March 25 – April 1, bringing their total position to a net short 29,847 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat led grain gains today, appearing least affected by tariff concerns. Volatility spiked after early reports of a 90-day tariff pause (excluding China) were later denied, trimming market highs. Strength in Matif wheat also supported U.S. prices.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections reached 12.3 mb, bringing total 24/25 inspections to 650 mb, up 15% from last year. Wheat inspections are running behind the USDA’s estimated pace; total 24/25 exports are forecast at 835 mb, up 18% from the previous year.

  • Over the weekend, temperatures in the Plains states dropped below freezing. While minimal damage is expected for the winter wheat crop, this may still have injected some weather premium into the market today.

  • CFTC data shows managed money increased net short positions in Chicago wheat to 112,000 contracts as of April 1, with total shorts across all wheat classes at 186,000 — the highest since December 2023.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 19,453 contracts between March 25 – April 1, bringing their total position to a net short 112,040 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to try forming a base in the 550–570 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 225 contracts between March 25 – April 1, bringing their total position to a net short 45,675 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 695.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations were made prior to last week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 646.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations were made prior to last week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2025 crop.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,961 contracts between March 25 – April 1, bringing their total position to a net short 28,680 contracts.

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