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5-5 End of Day: Grains Slide as Weather and Macro Pressures Weigh on Markets

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures finished lower as warm, dry forecasts across the Corn Belt supported planting progress and kept selling pressure on the market.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures weakened in bear spreading action, with the front months leading the decline and giving back Friday’s gains. Weak energy prices and ample planting conditions added to the pressure.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures fell sharply, led by winter wheat, as broad commodity weakness and a risk-off tone weighed. Spring wheat losses were modest, supported by dryness in the Northern Plains.

  • To see the updated 15-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the U.S. and the 8-14 day temperature outlook U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes: None.

      • No upside targets at this time.

      • If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:
    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
    • NEW: Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • NEW: Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • An additional downside target has been added to liquidate another quarter of the 420 December put options. This target may be reached before the 43 ¾ cents target.

      • A downside target was also set to roll down the current 510 & 550 call options, which would enhance upside protection on prior cash sales recommendations through the summer.  

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Technical selling and long liquidation weighed on corn, with prices ending moderately to sharply lower. Favorable weather and solid planting progress kept pressure on the market as supply concerns eased.

  • Corn planting is expected to reach around 40% in Monday’s Crop Progress report. Forecasts remain warm and dry across most of the Corn Belt, supporting rapid planting for the 2025/26 crop.

  • Weather conditions for the Brazil corn crop have been overall very friendly, and some analyst groups have raised their production forecasts for the key second crop corn. With harvest a few weeks away, the fresh supplies will be in competition with U.S. corn bushels on the export market.

  • Weekly U.S. corn export inspections remain strong. For the week ending May 1, inspections totaled 1.608 MMT (63.3 mb), near the top of expectations. Inspections are likely to stay firm until Brazil and Argentina enter the market more aggressively.

  • Managed speculative funds have been pressuring the corn market as traders have cut their current net long positions. On Friday’s Commitment of Traders Report, managed funds reduced their net long position to 71,329 contracts, this was down 41,479 contracts from the previous week’s report as good planting forecasts and Brazil crop expectations have triggered the selling pressure.

Corn Sandwiched Between Support and Resistance
Corn futures staged a breakout in April after repeatedly defending key support near 450 throughout March. A bullish April WASDE report — driven by stronger-than-expected demand — lit the spark, propelling prices through the 50-day moving average and igniting renewed bullish momentum. As the market enters May, traders are focused on two key drivers: weather outlooks across the Corn Belt and ongoing demand signals. The February highs just above 510 now stand as the next upside target. However, early May weakness has cracked support near 470, leaving the door open for a retest of the familiar 450 level — the early 2025 low — as the next key floor.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 41,476 contracts between April 22 – April 29, bringing their total position to a net long 71,329 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • NEW: Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

    • NEW: Tomorrow, Grain Market Insider will recommend adding additional downside coverage via 1040 January put options. Be on the lookout for recommendation alerts tomorrow.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes: None.

      • The 1093 cash sales target has been cancelled, leaving only the 1114 target active.

      • A target to exit a portion of the 1100 calls if November trades to 1085 has been added. This target would hit before the 88 cents exit target, making the latter target to exit all remaining 1100 calls.

      • If you’re behind on sales, target 1063 vs November for a catch-up opportunity. If you’re in line with current recommendations, Plan A remains to make the next cash sale at 1114, while keeping an eye on 1016.75 support as part of Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures closed lower in bear spreading action, with front-month contracts leading the decline and erasing Friday’s gains. Expectations remain for another strong planting pace in Monday’s Crop Progress report. Soybean meal and oil also fell, with oil under heavier pressure following declines in crude and palm oil.

  • Weekly export inspections were soft but within trade estimates. For the week ending May 1, inspections totaled 11.9 million bushels, bringing 2024/25 cumulative inspections to 1.597 billion bushels — up 11% from last year. Mexico and China were the top destinations.

  • Malaysian palm oil stocks likely posted their biggest monthly increase since August 2023, as production recovered from recent weather disruptions. Rising inventories have added pressure to soybean oil.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 7,135 contracts which increased their net long position to 38,202 contracts. They bought 12,488 contracts of bean oil and sold 24,716 contracts of bean meal.s.

Soybean Futures Hold Above Key Support
Soybean futures plunged in early April as news of fresh tariffs sent prices tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 level — a floor that had held firm throughout March. The break triggered a wave of technical selling, but the dip was short-lived. Aggressive buying interest quickly emerged, sparking a sharp rebound that not only reclaimed the 1000 level but also vaulted futures back above key moving averages. Notably, the 200-day moving average — a persistent ceiling for nearly two years — was decisively overtaken. With momentum building, the market is now setting its sights on a potential retest of the February highs near 1080, while the reclaimed 200-day average is poised to serve as a strong layer of support during any spring setbacks.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 7,135 contracts between April 22 – April 29, bringing their total position to a net long 38,202 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across the board, with winter wheat hit hardest. Spring wheat losses were limited as dry conditions in the Northern Plains offered support. It was a broad risk-off day for commodities, with Paris milling wheat and crude oil also sharply lower, adding pressure to U.S. wheat markets.

  • Weekly wheat inspections of 11.4 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections to 727 mb, which is up 14% from last year and slightly behind the forecasted pace. Total 24/25 exports are estimated by the USDA at 820 mb, up 16% from the year prior.

  • Forecasted rains in Argentina could delay corn and soybean harvests and winter wheat planting, though the moisture will aid early crop establishment during the May–July planting window.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds selling a record 31,486 contracts of Chicago wheat, pushing their net short to 121,415 — the largest since June 2023. Across all three U.S. wheat classes, managed money is now net short a record 207,798 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • NEW: Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • Sales target has been lowered.

      • With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • NEW: Target 696 against July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • Sales target has been lowered. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 31,486 contracts between April 22 – April 29, bringing their total position to a net short 121,415 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • NEW: Target 645 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • Sales target has been lowered.

      • With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 10,645 contracts between April 22 – April 29, bringing their total position to a net short 67,269 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,532 contracts between April 22 – April 29, bringing their total position to a net short 19,114 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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5-02 End of Day: Grains Diverge Friday: Wheat Surges, Corn Slips, Soybeans Stabilize

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures saw mixed trading on Friday, as selling pressure weighed on front-month contracts while new crop futures posted gains.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended the week on a firm note, gaining strength over the last two sessions as July contracts test the top of their recent trading range.

  • Wheat: Wheat led the grain complex higher, posting double-digit gains across all three classes as prices rebounded from recent lows.

  • To see the updated 4-week drought monitor change for the U.S. as well as the 7-day rainfall forecast from the WPC for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes: None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw mixed trade again on Friday as selling pressure at the front end of the market limited gains. Good planting pace, and a strong Brazil corn crop limited the front end of the corn market, despite a still strong demand tone. For the week, July futures finished 16 ¼ cents lower as the corn market saw strong bear spreading.

  • The old crop corn demand tone remains supportive despite the weak price action this week. Export sales, export shipments, and ethanol usage are trending ahead of the USDA targets for the marketing year. The USDA may need to make adjustments to the demand on May 12 WASDE report, lowering old crop carryout even further.

  • Brazil weather forecast has been favorable for development of the key second crop corn. Analyst estimates for this Brazil crop have been increased, and harvest could limit summer global corn prices in the export market.

  • Commodity markets in general were supported by a potential easing of the trade war between the U.S. and China. Reports of both parties may be more open to talks, and China removed the tariffs on $40 billion worth of U.S. imports.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes: None. If you’re behind on sales, target 1063 vs November for a catch-up opportunity. If you’re in line with current recommendations, Plan A remains to make the next cash sales at 1093 and 1114, while keeping an eye on 1016.75 support as part of Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher with strength over the past two days to close out the week. While July beans remain in their trading range, they are at the top, and another 10-cent increase would be a breakout to the upside. There has been some talk of too much rain in some areas, but funds are likely taking profits ahead of the weekend. Soybean meal was higher while soybean oil followed crude lower.

  • Today, StoneX raised their estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop for 24/25 to 168.4 mmt from 167.5 mmt in their previous estimates. This would be a record crop at a time where China may be poised to purchase nearly all of their soybeans from Brazil, forgoing the U.S., unless tariffs are lifted.

  • China is reportedly evaluating the U.S. in order to negotiate tariffs as long as “Washington does not engage in extortion and coercion”. While both sides clearly want to negotiate a deal, neither country has seemed willing to back down. A deal being made by harvest would be crucial for soybean demand in the U.S.

  • For the week, July soybeans lost 1-1/4 cents, recovering much of their losses earlier in the week. November soybeans meanwhile lost 4-1/2 cents. July soybean meal lost $1.60 to $296.90 while July soybean oil lost 0.38 cents to 49.43 cents.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat led the charge higher in the grain complex today, posting double-digit gains across all three classes. Along with a weaker U.S. dollar and higher close for Paris milling wheat, U.S. futures also gathered strength from improving relations between the U.S. and China. These factors, along with a positive technical outlook, may have also paved the way for fund short covering today.

  • Reportedly, China may be open to trade talks with the U.S., which could include ag goods. Additionally, China may be in need of purchasing more wheat due to current dryness in some of their key growing regions. There is also talk that their stockpiles may have declined over the past five years to levels below official reports.

  • Heavy rains continue to fall across the U.S. southern Plains, which should be beneficial for crop development and relieving drought. But some areas, including central Oklahoma and northern Texas, will see flash flooding. And with more rain in the forecast for this region next week, winter wheat quality concerns may begin to arise as the crop is heading.

  • Aside from the dryness in China’s wheat belt, the Black Sea area is also said to be too dry. Furthermore, cold temperatures and frost concerns in northeastern Europe may have given wheat a boost today via additional fund short covering.

  • According to the U.S. ag attaché to Canada, their 25/26 wheat production is expected to increase by 2%. This is largely due to a bigger planted area – in March, Stats Canada projected that area would increase by 2.6% versus the year prior.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 49 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: Target 657 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • With just 49 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 49 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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5-01 End of Day: Grains Kick off May with Mixed Performance

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Continuing the mixed trend seen throughout the session, corn futures settled mixed, as selling pressure prevented front-end contracts from posting gains.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended Thursday’s session with gains, rebounding after two consecutive days of losses, driven by today’s export sales report.

  • Wheat: After losing strength during the midday session, wheat futures ended mixed, with deferred contracts closing lower, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • No Changes: No active sales targets to report.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No Changes: Still no active sales targets to report. Options targets remain active and unchanged.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • New: A new target has posted to make a fourth cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw a quiet session with mixed trade, as front-end futures experienced light selling pressure. July corn futures have declined in three of the past four sessions and are down 13 cents for the week heading into Friday’s trade.

  • USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending April 24, U.S. exporters sold 1,014 MMT 39.9 mb) of corn for the 2024-25 marketing year and 245,000 MT (9.6 mb) for 2025-26. Old crop sales were within expectations, but well off the pace for the past few weeks. Total sales for the current marketing year are up 26% from last year and corn export demand has remained strong.

  • The U.S. dollar index has formed a short-term bottom as trade war concerns have eased, with recent economic data possibly signaling a potential rate cut from the Federal Reserve. A stronger U.S. dollar can hurt U.S. competitiveness on the global stage and may limit any price rallies in corn futures.

  • Deliveries against the May corn futures have been light, (25 contract each day), which should help support prices as delivered bushels aren’t retendered back into the market and adding selling pressure. The lack of deliveries is also reflective of a relatively tight nearby corn supply.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: Continue to target a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • No Changes: If you’re behind on sales, target 1063 vs November for a catch-up opportunity. If you’re in line with current recommendations, Plan A remains to make the next cash sales at 1093 and 1114, while keeping an eye on 1016.75 support as part of Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The first sales targets may not post until May or later.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans finished the day higher, snapping a two-day losing streak, though July futures remain within a tight trading range, hovering around the 200-day moving average. The market is likely to see a breakout in either direction, with weather conditions playing a key role. Today, soybean oil helped push prices higher, buoyed by a rise in crude oil, while soybean meal posted losses.

  • Today’s Export Sales report was once again middle of the road for soybeans, within analyst trade ranges. The USDA reported an increase of 15.7 million bushels of export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 1.8 mb for 25/26. Primary destinations were to China, Germany, and the Netherlands. Last week’s export shipments of 21.6 mb were above the 11.5 mb needed each week.

  • The Argentinian soybean harvest may be yielding better than expected. Dr. Cordonnier, crop analyst, has raised his projection for the Argentina soybean crop to 50 MMT, up 1 MMT from his last projection. This is slightly above USDA projections at 49 MMT.

  • According to the EIA, soybean oil used for U.S. biofuel production fell in February to 576 million pounds. This compares to January where soybean oil for biodiesel was 654 million pounds.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a two-sided trade, wheat futures closed in a similar fashion. Light bull spreading was observed in Chicago futures, where front-month contracts finished slightly higher, while deferred contracts ended lower. Kansas City futures were mostly lower, and Minneapolis futures were mixed. Wheat futures remain oversold and in need of a correction, but today’s jump in the U.S. dollar may have limited any rally potential.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 2.6 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 8.8 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 18.1 mb, which falls below the 22.6 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 820 mb. Total shipments have reached 682 mb for 24/25, which is up 11% from last year.

  • According to the Indian Food Secretary, their government has purchased 25.6 mmt of domestic wheat for state reserves. This is far above the total purchased up to this point last year, at 20.5 mmt. In total, India is expected to purchase 31.2 mmt for their stockpiles.

  • After recent rains, both winter and spring wheat growing regions in the U.S. saw big declines in drought readings. According to the USDA, as of April 29, an estimated 23% of winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions. This is down 10% from the week before. Additionally, spring wheat acres in drought fell from 49% to 37% during the same time period.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 50 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, today presents a timely opportunity to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • New: The 704 sales target has been lowered to 702.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the July contract continues to chop around in the 560–580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: Target 657 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • With just 50 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, today presents a timely opportunity to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 50 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, today presents a timely opportunity to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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4-30 End of Day: Grains End April Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures posted modest gains Wednesday, recovering from early session lows on strong demand signals.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower for a second straight session, pressured by rapid planting and favorable weather forecasts.

  • Wheat: Wheat ended mixed as month-end positioning and global supply outlooks continue to shape trade sentiment.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the U.S. 30-day precipitation rank by climate district as well as the 14-day precipitation forecast for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • No Changes: No active sales targets to report.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No Changes: Still no active sales targets to report. Options targets remain active and unchanged.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • New: A new target has posted to make a fourth cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw some price recovery on Wednesday as the friendly demand tone helped pull prices off early session lows. Old crop contracts led the rebound, supported by solid export and ethanol demand.

  • USDA reported a second consecutive flash export sale of 120,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2024–25, highlighting robust export interest.

  • Weekly ethanol production rose to 1.040 million barrels per day, translating to 100.9 million bushels of corn use—slightly above the pace needed to meet USDA targets.

  • New corn crop prices were limited by weather forecasts as conditions for the early part of May are favorable for planting pace. The warmer and overall drier forecast should help producers maintain a strong start to the planting of the 2025-26 corn crop.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: Continue to target a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • No Changes: If you’re behind on sales, target 1063 vs November for a catch-up opportunity. If you’re in line with current recommendations, Plan A remains to make the next cash sales at 1093 and 1114, while keeping an eye on 1016.75 support as part of Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The first sales targets may not post until May or later.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the second consecutive day on continued pressure from a fast planting pace and favorable weather conditions over the next few weeks. Prices have been relatively supported as trade still looks at smaller soybean acres, which could cause a decline in the carryout, especially if China begins buying again.

  • Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower with soybean oil posting the majority of losses, as crude oil futures slumped by over 2 dollars a barrel. Malaysian palm oil futures were also lower and have posted 4 consecutively lower closes.

  • Argentina soybean harvest may be yielding better than expected. Dr. Cordonnier, crop analyst, has raised his projection for the Argentina soybean crop to 50 MMT, up 1 MMT from his last projection. This is slightly above USDA projections at 49 MMT.

  • Brazilian soybeans continue to undercut U.S. prices. FOB Brazilian beans are 30–50 cents cheaper than U.S. Gulf offerings for May–July, which could further limit U.S. export competitiveness as China maintains its preference for Brazilian supply.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures finished mixed on Tuesday, with Chicago and Minneapolis posting modest gains while Kansas City slipped slightly. End-of-month short covering helped lift the market, though KC remains weighed down by improving weather prospects in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. All three classes are technically oversold, and Chicago stochastics are nearing a buy crossover.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s 25/26 wheat crop is expected to reach 20.5 mmt. If realized, this would be the second highest total on record. The next week or so is expected to be net dry for Argentina, which should aid with corn and soybean harvest, as well as wheat planting (which typically begins in May).

  • Australia’s wheat output is forecast by the USDA FAS at 31 MMT for 2025/26, a decline of 3.1 MMT year-over-year due to lower acreage and yields. Exports are projected at 23 MMT, down from 26 MMT.

  • The European Commission reports that EU soft wheat exports have reached 17.5 mmt as of April 27; the season began on July 1. This is down 34% year over year, with 26.6 mmt shipped during the same period a year ago.

  • Northern China’s wheat belt remains under stress, with little rainfall expected in the next 10 days. China’s Water Resources Minister has reportedly issued directives to bolster drought relief efforts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • The 705.50 sales target has been lowered to 701.

      • Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • New: The 704 sales target has been lowered to 702.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the July contract continues to chop around in the 560–580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • The 667 sales target has been lowered to 657 vs July.

      • Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New: Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July KC 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Above: From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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4-29 End of Day: First Notice Day and Planting Progress Pressures Grains Tuesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures faced heavy selling Tuesday as rapid planting progress, and the approach of First Notice Day triggered long liquidation.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower Tuesday, weighed by a fast planting start, favorable weather, and positioning ahead of Wednesday’s First Notice Day.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures declined across all three classes Tuesday, pressured by improving U.S. winter wheat conditions, favorable planting weather for corn and soybeans, and broader grain market weakness.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the U.S. 10-day precipitation anomaly forecast, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • No New Sales Targets: No active sales targets to report.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No Changes: Still no active sales targets to report. Options targets remain active and unchanged.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • New: A new target has posted to make a fourth cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A difficult day in the corn market as strong planting pace and the impact of first notice day pressured corn futures, triggering long liquidation. May and July contracts settled at their lowest levels since April 7.

  • May futures lead the market lower losing 15 cents session of first notice day for May futures is tomorrow. Traders holding long May positions in the futures market needed to exit or risk the potential for delivery against those futures.

  • Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report showed corn planting at 24% complete, up 12% from last week and 3% ahead of the 5-year average — slightly above market expectations.

  • USDA reported a flash export sale of corn on Tuesday morning. The USDA announced that Spain purchased 120,000 MT (4.7 mb) of corn for the current marketing year, as export demand stays supportive.

  • Despite futures weakness, cash corn markets remain firm. Basis levels are strengthening as old-crop demand stays solid and farmer selling slows amid spring planting activity.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Above: Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: Continue to target a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • No Changes: If you’re behind on sales, target 1063 vs November for a catch-up opportunity. If you’re in line with current recommendations, Plan A remains to make the next cash sales at 1093 and 1114, while keeping an eye on 1016.75 support as part of Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The first sales targets may not post until May or later.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower as first notice day tomorrow and a quick start to the planting season, accompanied by good weather, have pressured the market. July futures appear technically overbought and are flashing a crossover sell signal on stochastics. Soybean meal finished higher, while soybean oil fell sharply in tandem with crude oil.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections were ok, but export demand has been fairly poor in general with China purchasing their soybeans from Brazil. However, this morning the USDA reported that 110,000 tons of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations in 24/25.

  • Yesterday’s crop progress showed that 18% of the soybean crop is planted, which compared to 3% last week and the 5-year average of 12%. In Illinois, soybean planting is further ahead than corn. The weather forecast looks conducive for planting over the next few weeks.

  • China’s port of Zhoushan is expected to see a 48% increase in soybean imports from Brazil. So far, 40 Brazilian ships carrying soybeans have already docked there in April which is up 48% from last year at this time. The port is expected to unload 700,000 mt of soybeans this month which would be a 32% jump.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Above: Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat sustained losses in all three classes today, unable to recover from improving winter wheat crop conditions. Spillover weakness from lower corn and soybean futures did not help, as planting has progressed quickly for those crops. Forecasted rains across the Southern Plains continue to weigh on prices. Despite the losses, technical indicators suggest wheat may be nearing oversold territory, hinting at a potential bottom.

  • Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report showed winter wheat conditions improved by 4% to 49% good-to-excellent. Heading progress reached 27%, slightly below last year but ahead of the five-year average. Spring wheat planting is 30% complete, with 5% emerged — both in line with typical progress.

  • Geopolitical tensions remain in focus, though wheat markets have grown less reactive. Russia announced a May 8–10 ceasefire to mark WWII Victory Day. While not expected to move markets, it could hint at broader diplomatic efforts, which would be bearish if they materialize.

  • SovEcon has increased their estimate of 24/25 Russian wheat exports by 0.2 mmt to 40.7 mmt. For reference, this still falls under the USDA’s 44 mmt projection. SovEcon increased their 25/26 export estimate as well, by 0.6 mmt to 39.7 mmt.

  • In Brazil, wheat planting has begun in Paraná with 2% of the crop seeded. Despite a 22% drop in planted area year-over-year, production is expected to rise 24% to 2.85 MMT due to strong yield expectations.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • The 705.50 sales target has been lowered to 701.

      • Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • New: The 704 sales target has been lowered to 702.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the July contract continues to chop around in the 560–580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • The 667 sales target has been lowered to 657 vs July.

      • Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

Above: Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New: Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July KC 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Above: Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

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4-28 End of Day: Grain Markets Struggle as Planting Progress and Weather Pressure Futures

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures ended lower Monday, weighed down by spillover selling from wheat and expectations for an accelerated planting pace across the Midwest.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures finished mixed, with front months higher and deferred contracts lower on bull spreading activity.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures fell across all classes, unable to rebound from early losses tied to forecasts for sustained heavy rainfall in the Southern Plains. Kansas City and Chicago wheat contracts posted fresh lows for the move.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the U.S. 8-14 day precipitation anomaly, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • No New Sales Targets: No active sales targets to report.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No Changes: Still no active sales targets to report. Options targets remain active and unchanged.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • No Changes: No new active sales targets to report.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished softer on the session, weighed by selling pressure spilling over from the wheat market, and the prospects of a strong planting pace for the next corn crop. U.S. corn demand remains strong, but the market is looking for bullish news to push prices higher.

  • Weekly corn export inspections remain strong. For the week ending April 24, corn inspections totaled 1.655 MMT (65.1 mb), which was near the top end of expectations. Total corn expectations are up 29% year-over-year, and ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA export target for the marketing year.

  • Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report is expected to show corn planting nearing 25% complete, up from 12% last week and ahead of the five-year average, reinforcing ideas that planted acres could exceed earlier projections.

  • The influence of First Notice Day of the May futures likely limited corn prices and added volatility, as traders holding long May positions need to exit or roll those positions to the next contract month or risk delivery.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 11,768 contracts between April 15 – April 22, bringing their total position to a net long 112,805 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: Continue to target a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • No Changes: If you’re behind on sales, target 1063 vs November for a catch-up opportunity. If you’re in line with current recommendations, Plan A remains to make the next cash sales at 1093 and 1114, while keeping an eye on 1016.75 support as part of Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The first sales targets may not post until May or later.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the front months higher and back months lower in bull spreading action. May futures were up 2-1/4 cents while November was down 1/4 cent. Support came from soybean oil, which closed higher, while soybean meal was lower to end the day.

  • USDA’s Crop Progress report, due this afternoon, is expected to show soybean planting at 17% complete as of Sunday. Warmer, drier weather in early May should help with emergence for early-planted fields.

  • Today’s export inspections were on the poorer side for soybeans at the low range of analyst estimates. Inspections totaled 16.1 million bushels for the week ending April 24. Total inspections for 24/25 are now at 1.584 billion bushels, which is up 11% from the previous year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 4,898 contracts, increasing their net long position to 31,067 contracts. They were buyers of 9,940 contracts of bean oil and sellers of 3,911 contracts of meal.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,898 contracts between April 15 – April 22, bringing their total position to a net long 31,067 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat markets struggled to recover from a rocky start to the week, ultimately closing lower across all classes on Monday. The downturn was driven by forecasts of continued heavy rainfall across the Southern Plains, which added pressure to prices. Both Kansas City and Chicago wheat contracts hit new lows today.

  • The USDA released its weekly Export Inspections report this morning for the week ending April 24. Wheat export inspections totaled 24 million bushels, coming in above expectations and reaching a seven-month high. Year-to-date inspections stand at 715 million bushels, up 15% from the same time last year, just below the USDA’s projected 16% increase.

  • There were reports of frost across parts of Russia last night, though it remains unclear whether any damage occurred to the wheat crop.

  • The two-week weather outlook for parts of the U.S. calls for continued heavy rainfall across the Southern Plains, including Texas and Oklahoma. Traders may begin to shift their perspective, viewing the persistent rains not as beneficial, but as a potential setback for the developing wheat crop.

  • The weekly Crop Progress report is due out later this afternoon. Wheat conditions are expected to be steady to slightly improved, with spring wheat planting and emergence running just ahead of the five-year average. Estimates suggest planting reached 32% as of Sunday, compared to 31% at this time last year and a five-year average of 21%.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New: Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 6,510 contracts between April 15 – April 22, bringing their total position to a net short 89,929 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the July contract continues to chop around in the 560–580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New: Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 9,252 contracts between April 15 – April 22, bringing their total position to a net short 56,624 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New: Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July KC 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,573 contracts between April 15 – April 22, bringing their total position to a net short 16,582 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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4-25 End of Day: Grains Mixed Friday: Corn Gains, Soybeans Slip, Wheat Firms

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures closed the week mixed, with strength in old-crop contracts driven by robust demand, while new-crop futures faced pressure from favorable planting conditions.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures ended lower Friday, pressured by improving U.S. planting conditions and widespread rainfall, even as trade negotiations between President Trump and China continued.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures held onto marginal gains Friday, buoyed by strength in Paris milling wheat and short covering, with managed funds still holding record short positions across U.S. and EU wheat markets.

  • To see the updated U.S. 8–14-day temperature and precipitation outlooks as well as the 10-day precipitation forecast for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop.  This should be the eighth sale for your 2024 corn crop.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • No Changes: The market is still offering an opportunity to make an eighth sale of your 2024 corn crop. The closing price on the day of the recommendation was 483.25, and today’s close was 485.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No New Sales Targets: Still no active sales targets to report. Options targets remain active and unchanged.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • No Changes: No new active sales targets to report.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished the week with mixed trade. Old crop futures were supported by the positive demand tone, but new crop futures were pressured on prospective planting pace for the week. July corn futures finished 4 ¾ cents lower on the week.

  • The USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Friday morning. Mexico purchased 235,000 MT (9.25 mb) of corn split between the current and next marketing year, 130,000 MT (5.1 mb) for 2024-25 and 105,000 MT (4.15 mb) for 2025-26.

  • Export sales and shipments remain ahead of USDA projections, suggesting potential upward revisions to export estimates in upcoming WASDE reports, which could tighten old-crop carryout.

  • News report that Japan is looking to boost U.S. corn imports as part of a possible trade deal and avoiding tariffs supported the front end of the corn market. Japan has been more active recently in US corn purchase, being the largest buyer this past week on the export sales report.

  • Weather forecasts point to a drier start to May, likely accelerating planting progress and raising expectations for larger acreage in USDA’s June report.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Status Quo: Continue to target a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Status Quo: If you’re behind on sales, target 1063 vs November for a catch-up opportunity. If you’re in line with current recommendations, Plan A remains to make the next cash sales at 1093 and 1114, while keeping an eye on 1016.75 support as part of Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Status Quo: The first sales targets may not post until May or later.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower despite continued talk of trade negotiations between President Trump and China. Much of the country has received rain over the past few days as planting begins, improving soil moisture and potentially pressuring futures. Soybean meal was higher, while soybean oil was lower to end the day.

  • Argentinian weather forecasts have turned drier, allowing Argentina producers to push soybean harvest forward.  Argentina producers were noted as strong sellers this past week, taking advantage of the rally in front month soybean futures.

  • U.S. soybean planting is off to a strong start, with 8% of the crop planted — ahead of the five-year average. Near-term rains are expected, but longer-range forecasts show a drier May across North America, raising concerns about summer drought potential and adding weather premium to prices.

  • For the week, May soybeans gained 13-1/4 cents while November gained just 2-1/2 cents. May soybean meal lost $5.60 for the week ending at $290, while May soybean oil was the leader gaining 1.41 cents to 49.28 cents.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat markets continued their positive momentum throughout the day, ultimately ending the day with gains, following the lead of the Paris milling wheat contract and as managed funds remain at record short positions in both the U.S. and the EU.

  • Showers in Oklahoma and northern Kansas offered some pressure early, but buying picked up ahead of the weekend. Forecasts suggest upcoming rain will target the northern and far southern Plains, leaving central areas like Nebraska and western Kansas largely dry.

  • Despite U.S. rain, global production risks persist. Dryness in key wheat regions across China, the EU, and the Black Sea remain in focus, tempering bearish sentiment.

  • The wheat crop in Ukraine remains uncertain as Russian President Putin continues to ignore President Trump’s request to cease strikes on Ukraine and negotiate a peace deal. Any disruptions to wheat production or exports from Ukraine could place additional strain on the global wheat supply.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Status Quo: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New: Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come next week — stay tuned.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Status Quo: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Eye Key Breakout Above 200-Day Moving Average
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and prices are building upward again this April. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Nothing New: Still no active price targets, as the July contract continues to chop around in the 560–580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Target Update: The prior 677 target has been lowered to 667. If 667 is hit, a recommendation will be made to complete a fifth sale.

    • New: Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come next week — stay tuned.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Nothing New: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold trendline support so far in April is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Nothing New: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New: Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July KC 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come next week — stay tuned.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Nothing New: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above 200-Day
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike winter wheats, spring wheat’s ability to stay above the 200-day remains encouraging, with this level now expected to act as support on any growing season pullbacks. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Other Charts / Weather

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4-24 End of Day: Grains Finish Strong Despite Early Session Weakness

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: After a choppy start to the week, corn futures managed to end with modest gains, supported by strong export performance.

  • Soybeans: Supported by ongoing optimism over a trade deal with China, soybeans gained throughout the day and ultimately settled higher.

  • Wheat: Despite a weaker start, wheat futures managed to close higher, as the market continued to show signs of being oversold.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop.  This should be the eighth sale for your 2024 corn crop.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Current Rec: The July contract has recently stalled, encountering strong selling pressure in the 494–496 range. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed U.S. corn planting moving ahead of the five-year average — a trend that, if it continues, could reduce the market’s urgency to bid aggressively for old crop supplies. Additionally, a key Plan B technical indicator that Grain Market Insider closely tracks turned lower on Tuesday, issuing a sell signal. Given the rally from the March low and the seasonal timing, this remains a timely opportunity to make an eighth sale of the 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Nothing New: Exit targets for December options remain unchanged, and no new sales targets posted today.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Nothing New: Following the recent recommendation to make a third sale, no new sales targets posted today.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures broke a three-session losing strength to finish with moderate gains on Thursday. Strong export performance, buying in the soybean market and the volatility of options expiration helped triggered buying in the corn market on the session.

  • USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning.  For the week ending April 17, USDA reported new crop sales of 1.152 MMT (45.4 mb). Japan was the largest buyer of US corn on the week. Corn export sales are up 26% over last year and still ahead of the USDA pace to reach the marketing year export target.

  • New crop export sales for the 2025-26 marketing year are starting slowly at 458,377 MT (18.04 mb). These total trails last year’s sale pace by approximately 400,000MT for the same time period. The market will be watching 2025-26 sales as the US is expected to plant a record number of acres, strong South American crops, and the impacts of tariffs on corn exports in the future.

  • May corn options expire on Friday, and prices tend to be more volatile in the expiration window. This is followed by First Notice Day on April 30. These events can trigger volatility in the front end of the corn market.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Nothing New: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • Nothing New: Plan A and Plan B targets remain unchanged – ready to pull the trigger on additional sales if November can rally to 1093 & 1114, while simultaneously prepared to advance another sale if 1016.75 support is broken.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Nothing New: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher, gaining throughout the day and finally managing to close above the 200-day moving average for the first time since February. Support came from continued hopes for a trade negotiation with China along with a breakout higher in soybean oil. Soybean meal finished the day lower.

  • Today’s export inspections report was on the poor side for soybeans. The USDA reported an increase of 10.2 million bushels of export sales for 24/25 and a decrease of 3,700 bushels for 25/26. This was on the low end of analyst estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, the Netherlands, and unknown destinations.

  • Last week’s export shipments of 18.2 million bushels were above the 11.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 1.825 bb in 24/25. Soybean sales commitments are now up 13% from a year ago. China was not an active buyer this week.

  • U.S. soybean planting is off to a strong start, with 8% of the crop planted — ahead of the five-year average. Near-term rains are expected, but longer-range forecasts show a drier May across North America, raising concerns about summer drought potential and adding weather premium to prices.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite a weaker start to the day, wheat managed to eke out a positive close across all three classes. Managed funds are estimated to hold a net short position of around 145,000 contracts heading into the session, and Kansas City futures remain technically oversold. Both factors could set the stage for a short-covering rally—if a catalyst emerges to spark it.

  • The USDA reported a decrease of 5.3 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, and an increase of 13.7 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 17.6 mb fell under the 21.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 820 mb. Total 24/25 sales commitments have reached 782 mb, up 13% from last year.

  • According to the USDA, as of April 22, an estimated 33% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions. This is down 1% from last week, as recent rains have fallen across much of the central and southern US. During the same timeframe, however, spring wheat acres in drought increased by 6% to 49%.

  • According to their supply minister, Egypt is expected to import 4.5 mmt of wheat during the 25/26 season (which begins in July). This would be below the 4.8 mmt estimated so far this year. Additionally, they stated that current wheat stockpiles are expected to be sufficient through late July.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Nothing New: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Nothing New: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Nothing New: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Eye Key Breakout Above 200-Day Moving Average
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and prices are building upward again this April. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Nothing New: Still no active price targets, as the July contract continues to chop around in the 560–580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Nothing New: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Nothing New: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold trendline support so far in April is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Nothing New: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Nothing New: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Nothing New: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above 200-Day
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike winter wheats, spring wheat’s ability to stay above the 200-day remains encouraging, with this level now expected to act as support on any growing season pullbacks. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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4-23 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Continue Slide While Soybeans Rally on Trade Optimism

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures posted a third straight session of losses Wednesday. A firmer U.S. dollar and ongoing weakness in the wheat market pressured values across the corn complex.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures closed higher for a second straight day supported by optimism around potential U.S.–China tariff relief.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures extended losses Tuesday as wetter conditions across the Southern Plains continued to weigh on values.

  • To see the updated U.S. 10-day precipitation forecast and 10-15-day temperature outlook as well as the 10-day global precipitation forecast scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop.  This should be the eighth sale for your 2024 corn crop.

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 546 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Current Rec: The July contract has recently stalled, encountering strong selling pressure in the 494–496 range. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed U.S. corn planting moving ahead of the five-year average — a trend that, if it continues, could reduce the market’s urgency to bid aggressively for old crop supplies. Additionally, a key Plan B technical indicator that Grain Market Insider closely tracks turned lower on Tuesday, issuing a sell signal. Given the rally from the March low and the seasonal timing, this remains a timely opportunity to make an eighth sale of the 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No Changes: Exit targets for December options remain unchanged, and no new sales targets posted today.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • No Changes: Following the recent recommendation to make a third sale, no new sales targets posted today.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw selling for the third consecutive day as the July contract has traded nearly 20 cents of the most recent high. A strong U.S. dollar and weakness in the wheat market kept a lid on corn prices for the session.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index has bounced from recent lows this week, trending higher as market fears surrounding tariffs and trade policy begin to ease. The stronger greenback continues to cap upside potential in corn by dampening export competitiveness.

  • Weekly ethanol production rose to 1.033 million barrels per day, up 297.5 million barrels from the previous week and 8% above year-ago levels. Ethanol use accounted for 103.5 million bushels of corn last week — just shy of the pace needed to meet USDA annual projections.

  • Traders are eyeing Thursday’s weekly export sales report, with expectations for corn sales between 800,000 and 1.3 MMT. Last week’s total came in at 1.561 MMT, highlighting continued strong demand for U.S. corn.

  • With First Notice Day for May corn approaching on April 30, producers are under pressure to price basis contracts. Meanwhile, traders holding long positions must exit to avoid delivery — often leading to additional downside pressure in the market.arket.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • Plan B Target: While Plan A remains to make the next cash sale at 1093 vs November, markets don’t always cooperate. A new downside stop has been posted as a precaution in case the market falls short of that upside target. Key support for the current uptrend sits at 1016.75. A break below that level could signal a trend shift and reduce the odds of reaching the Plan A target. Grain Market Insider prefers to avoid selling on down days, but sometimes conditions call for flexibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the second consecutive day amid further discussions that President Trump might lower tariffs on certain goods from China. Futures were bull spread with the front months posting the majority of gains and November just 1 cent higher. Soybean meal was lower while soybean oil was higher despite a selloff in crude.

  • U.S. soybean planting is off to a strong start, with 8% of the crop planted — ahead of the five-year average. Near-term rains are expected, but longer-range forecasts show a drier May across North America, raising concerns about summer drought potential and adding weather premium to prices.

  • Market sentiment was lifted by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remarks to investors suggesting a trade deal with China could materialize “sooner than later.” China remains heavily reliant on Brazilian soybean imports for now.

  • Estimates for tomorrow’s weekly export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 500k and 700k metric tons. While China has not been a very active buyer of U.S. soybeans, their demand for Brazilian beans has been supportive to prices globally.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower again, continuing to be influenced by the wetter weather in the southern plains. Rainfall totals between 1.5–3 inches are expected, easing drought stress and improving prospects for the winter wheat crop. A stronger U.S. Dollar added further downside pressure.

  • Geopolitical uncertainty also resurfaced after reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected a U.S. proposal to recognize Russian control of Crimea in a ceasefire deal. The news renewed concerns over a prolonged conflict, which could affect grain flows out of the Black Sea region.

  • Warm and wet conditions over the past couple of weeks in Ukraine have helped to relieve drought and replenish soil moisture, however the risks still remain. Some of their main wheat growing areas still have moisture deficits and above normal temperatures are expected to persist through the end of this week.

  • Meanwhile, dry conditions in Argentina have supported soybean and corn harvest progress. However, the country’s winter wheat planting season begins in May, and additional rainfall will be necessary to ensure healthy crop establishment.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Nothing New: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Nothing New: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Nothing New: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Eye Key Breakout Above 200-Day Moving Average
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and prices are building upward again this April. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Nothing New: Still no active price targets, as the July contract continues to chop around in the 560–580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Nothing New: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Nothing New: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold trendline support so far in April is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Nothing New: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Nothing New: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Nothing New: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above 200-Day
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike winter wheats, spring wheat’s ability to stay above the 200-day remains encouraging, with this level now expected to act as support on any growing season pullbacks. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

10-day total precipitation forecast

10-day Global total precipitation forecast

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4-22 End of Day: Corn Pressured by Rapid Planting Pace; Soybeans Edge Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Selling pressure hit the corn market on Tuesday, as faster-than-expected planting progress sparked selling across both old and new crop contracts.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures closed higher on Tuesday, defying losses in corn and wheat, gains in soybeans came even as both soybean meal and oil futures ended the day lower.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures ended modestly lower across all three classes Tuesday, pressured a rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index and a general lack of fresh supportive news.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast and 8–14-day temperature outlook as well as the 30-day percent of normal precipitation for South America scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop today.  This should be the eighth sale for your 2024 corn crop.

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 546 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.25.

    • Today’s Rec: Over the last four trading sessions, the July contract has stalled — facing strong selling pressure in the 494–496 range. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed U.S. corn planting beginning to move ahead of the five-year average. If that trend continues, the market may ease back on its need to bid aggressively for old crop supplies.  In addition, a key Plan B technical indicator that Grain Market Insider monitors closely turned lower today, giving a sell signal. With the July contract still up roughly 37 cents from its March low, today is viewed as an opportunity to make an eighth sale of the 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No Changes: Exit targets for December options remain unchanged, and no new sales targets posted today.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • No Changes: Following the recent recommendation to make a third sale, no new sales targets posted today.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure hit the corn market on Tuesday, as faster-than-expected planting progress sparked selling across both old and new crop contracts. July corn futures closed at their lowest level since April 10, with technical charts now signaling further weakness.

  • This week’s USDA Crop Progress report showed 12% of the corn crop planted, up 8% from the previous week and ahead of market expectations. The five-year average for this time is 10%. The strong pace eased earlier concerns about potential planting delays due to wet weather.

  • Expectations for South American corn production are also trending higher. Recent late-season rainfall has benefited crops in key areas, with Brazil now potentially on track for a corn crop exceeding 125 MMT. In addition, Argentina weather is drying out, allowing for harvest to progress of their corn crop.

  • A firmer U.S. Dollar and a recovery in equity markets contributed to long liquidation in corn futures, triggering money flow out of the market and pushing prices toward key support levels.

  • With First Notice Day for May corn contracts set for April 30, producers will need to price basis contracts or bushels, while market participants must exit long May positions or risk delivery. This window often brings additional selling pressure into the market.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • Plan B Target: While Plan A remains to make the next cash sale at 1093 vs November, markets don’t always cooperate. A new downside stop has been posted as a precaution in case the market falls short of that upside target. Key support for the current uptrend sits at 1016.75. A break below that level could signal a trend shift and reduce the odds of reaching the Plan A target. Grain Market Insider prefers to avoid selling on down days, but sometimes conditions call for flexibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures closed higher on Tuesday, defying losses in corn and wheat. Favorable planting weather has kept pace moving steadily, yet soybeans have remained rangebound, trading within a 15-cent band over the past week. Futures continue to struggle to close above the 200-day moving average, though a bull flag formation is developing. Notably, gains in soybeans came even as both soybean meal and oil futures ended the day lower.

  • Sentiment in the soybean market was buoyed by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who told an investor group he expects a trade deal with China to be reached “sooner than later.” Currently, China continues to source most of its soybean needs from Brazil.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw that 8% of the soybean crop has been planted which compares to the average trade guess of 7% and 2% a week ago. Last year at this time, the crop was 7% planted, and the 5-year average pace is 5%.

  • In March, Chinese soybean imports from the U.S. rose 12% compared to the same period last year; however, this increase occurred before the latest round of tariffs were imposed. Brazil remains the dominant supplier to China’s soybean market.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with modest losses in all three futures classes, pressured new contract lows for Matif wheat, a rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index, rain in the forecast for the Southern Plains, and a general lack of fresh friendly news.

  • According to the USDA’s crop progress report, winter wheat was rated 45% good to excellent as of April 20. This is down 2% from the previous week and 5% from last year; the winter crop is also reported to be 15% headed. As for spring wheat, 17% of the crop is planted, which compared with 14% a year ago and a five-year average of 12% complete. Just 2% of the spring crop has emerged, in line with last year and the average.

  • Weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions and near- to below-average temperatures in India over the next couple of weeks, which should aid the country’s wheat harvest. In contrast, dryness in northern China is raising concerns over wheat crop development.

  • Russian wheat exports continue to run behind last year’s pace. SovEcon has estimated Russia’s April wheat exports at 2 mmt, which is below both the 5 mmt shipped last year, as well as a five-year average of 3.5 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Eye Key Breakout Above 200-Day Moving Average
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and prices are building upward again this April. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550-580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold trendline support so far in April is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above 200-Day
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike winter wheats, spring wheat’s ability to stay above the 200-day remains encouraging, with this level now expected to act as support on any growing season pullbacks. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather