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6-24 End of Day: Grains Slide as Crude Drops, Selling Pressure Builds Across the Complex

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Selling pressure remained in the corn market on Tuesday, as futures posted new nearby lows. July and September contracts marked new contract lows for the second consecutive session.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower for the third consecutive session, with July futures down 21 1/4 cents and November down 23 3/4 cents so far this week. Most of the pressure stems from weakness in soybean oil, which is following crude oil sharply lower.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat led the grain complex lower on Tuesday, with both winter wheat classes posting double-digit losses. Spring wheat also finished in the red but fared slightly better.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • New upside target added.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure remained in the corn market on Tuesday, as futures posted new nearby lows. July and September contracts marked new contract lows for the second consecutive session. Broad-based commodity weakness and favorable weather forecasts continue to keep buyers on the sidelines, allowing sellers to maintain control.

  • Monday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report showed corn conditions at 70% good-to-excellent, down 2 percentage points from last week and below trade expectations for steady ratings at 72%. This compares to 69% good-to-excellent at the same time last year.

  • Analyst expectations for Brazil’s second corn crop continue to rise. Agroconsult raised its forecast to a record 123.3 MMT, up 10.4 MMT from last month and 20.2 MMT above last year’s crop, despite delays from late planting and weather-related harvest setbacks.

  • Speculative hedge funds expanded their net short position by more than 20,000 contracts as of June 17, bringing the total to 184,788 contracts. Given recent price action, current estimates likely place the net short above 200,000 contracts.

  • The USDA reported a flash sale to Mexico of 630,000 metric tons of new-crop corn on Tuesday. Of that total, 554,500 MT is for the 2025-26 marketing year, with the remaining 57,600 MT for 2026-27.

Corn Futures Continue to Trade Within Recent Range
Front-month corn remains rangebound within a 30-cent band, mostly trading below resistance at 4.46. The recent roll to September futures left an unfilled chart gap. A close above 4.46 could open the door to a move toward 4.65, while support rests near the recent low of 4.20. A break below that would expose the next downside target at 4.08.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the third consecutive day with the July contract losing 21-1/4 cents and November losing 23-3/4 cents so far this week. Pressure has primarily come from declines in soybean oil as it follows crude oil sharply lower. Crude oil has lost nearly 13 dollars per barrel since yesterday’s high as Iran and Israel seem close to agreeing to a cease fire.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw crop conditions for soybeans unchanged with the good to excellent rating still at 66%. 96% of the crop is planted, 90% is emerged, compared to 84% last week, and 8% is blooming.

  • Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, as reports emerged that Iran launched six missiles toward U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq in response to weekend U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, the absence of direct attacks on energy infrastructure led to selling in both crude oil and soybean oil.

  • Yesterday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans. They bought 33,526 contacts which increased their net long position to 59,165 contracts. They bought 21,375 contracts of bean oil and sold 20,273 contracts of meal.

Soybeans Pause Near Upper End of Recent Range
Soybeans remain near major resistance that must be cleared to unlock broader upside potential. The macro trend remains sideways, with key resistance at the May high of 1082. A close above that level could target the open gap on the front-month continuous chart from last June, which spans 1161 to 1177. If July futures fail to break 1082, the risk shifts back toward rangebound or lower trade. Initial support is at 1032.5, with a close below that exposing the April low of 970.25 as the next downside risk.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat led the grain complex to the downside today. Both of the winter wheat classes sustained double-digit losses. Spring wheat, though also closing lower, was able to come away with less damage. The declines came despite a weaker U.S. dollar and deteriorating crop conditions, suggesting that traders are prioritizing macroeconomic and geopolitical drivers. Crude oil’s continued slide through key moving average support added pressure across the commodity space.

  • Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report indicated that winter wheat conditions fell 3% from last week to 49% good to excellent. Additionally, 96% of the crop is headed and 19% of the crop has been harvested. This is well below the 38% harvested last year and the five-year average of 28%. Spring wheat conditions also slipped 3% to 54% good to excellent; 93% of that crop is emerged and 17% is headed.

  • According to the Commitments of Traders report, managed funds bought over 31,000 wheat contracts across all three classes, reducing their net short to about 152,000 contracts. However, this data is through Tuesday, June 17, and it is likely they have re-established short positions over the past few sessions.

  • Analyst group ASAP Agri has estimated Ukraine’s 2025 wheat production will fall 3% year over year to 21.74 mmt. Additionally, they forecasted the yield at 4.37 mt per hectare, which would be down 3.5%. Finally, they projected Ukrainian 25/26 wheat exports at 15 mmt.

  • Brazil’s Emater/RS pegged 2025 wheat yields at 2.997 mt/ha, an 8% improvement over 2024. However, planted area is expected to decline by 10% to 1.198 million hectares. Total production is estimated at 3.591 MMT, down about 3% from last season.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
After running up to resistance levels last week, wheat futures have fallen sharply back below the upper end of the previous range. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash.

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength last week pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness so far this week has sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75

Above: Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holding Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures broke out above key resistance last week, establishing 660 as the next upside target. The early-week pullback appears to be a healthy correction within the broader uptrend. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level—and especially beneath the May low of 572.50—would open the door to further downside risk.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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6-23 End of Day: Grains Slide to Start the Week Amid Favorable Weather and Geopolitical Jitters

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures struggled again to start the week, as favorable weather forecasts and technical selling pressured prices. Front-end contracts pushed to new nearby lows, with December corn posting its lowest close since December.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed lower Monday, with deferred contracts leading the decline. Sharp losses in crude oil and soybean oil pressured the soy complex, reversing early session gains.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures posted double-digit losses across all classes on Monday, as broader commodity markets turned risk-off amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • New upside target added.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures struggled again to start the week, as favorable weather forecasts and technical selling pressured prices. Front-end contracts pushed to new nearby lows, with December corn posting its lowest close since December.

  • The outside market remained extremely volatile on Monday with a close eye on tensions in the Middle East. The crude oil market dropped significantly of the session highs after Iran retaliated against the U.S. air strikes over the weekend. The crude oil market traded over $8-9 of session highs with the thought the tension may de-escalate.

  • Despite building heat across the Corn Belt, timely rainfall continues to alleviate crop stress. The extended outlook remains favorable, with above-average precipitation and warm—but not extreme—temperatures expected, supporting crop development.

  • The recent rainfall totals across the Corn Belt have reduced the areas of drought slightly week over week. Total corn area that remains in some form of drought is at 17% according to the latest drought monitor maps.

  • USDA’s weekly corn inspections showed exporters shipped 1.476 MMT (58.1 MB) last week. Total inspections are now running 29% ahead of last year and remain well on pace to exceed the USDA’s 2024/25 export forecast.

Corn Futures Continue to Trade Within Recent Range
Front-month corn remains rangebound within a 30-cent band, mostly trading below resistance at 4.46. The recent roll to September futures left an unfilled chart gap. A close above 4.46 could open the door to a move toward 4.65, while support rests near the recent low of 4.20. A break below that would expose the next downside target at 4.08.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower with larger losses in the deferred contracts as sharply lower crude oil prices weighed on soybean oil. Soybean oil and crude began the day higher, but traders may be anticipating that the conflict with Iran may not translate to disruptions in oil distribution.

  • Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, as reports emerged that Iran launched six missiles toward U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq in response to weekend U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, the absence of direct attacks on energy infrastructure led to selling in both crude oil and soybean oil.

  • Friday’s export sales came in better than expected, with 19.8 mb booked for 2024/25 and 2.8 mb for 2025/26. Top buyers included Germany, Mexico, and unknown destinations. Shipments totaled 14.9 mb, above the 13.2 mb weekly pace needed to reach USDA’s 1.850 bb target.

  • China’s soybean imports from Brazil surged 37.5% year-over-year in May, reaching 12.11 MMT, up from 8.81 MMT last year. U.S. soybean shipments to China totaled just 1.63 MMT, highlighting Brazil’s continued dominance during the peak export season.

Soybeans Pause Near Upper End of Recent Range
Soybeans remain near major resistance that must be cleared to unlock broader upside potential. The macro trend remains sideways, with key resistance at the May high of 1082. A close above that level could target the open gap on the front-month continuous chart from last June, which spans 1161 to 1177. If July futures fail to break 1082, the risk shifts back toward rangebound or lower trade. Initial support is at 1032.5, with a close below that exposing the April low of 970.25 as the next downside risk.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures posted double-digit losses across all classes on Monday, as broader commodity markets turned risk-off amid heightened geopolitical tensions. The U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend was met with reports of Iranian missile retaliation targeting a U.S. base in Qatar. Interestingly, crude oil fell $4–5 per barrel, likely due to the lack of damage to energy infrastructure and the continued operation of the Strait of Hormuz—nonetheless, crude’s weakness may have pressured grains as well.

  • USDA reported weekly wheat inspections at 9.4 million bushels, bringing 2025/26 cumulative inspections to 31 mb—20% below last year’s pace and trailing USDA’s annual export projection of 825 mb (up 1% year-over-year).

  • Severe storms and tornadoes in North Dakota on Friday may have caused localized spring wheat damage, including reports of compromised grain infrastructure. Crop loss estimates are still unknown.

  • Egypt’s wheat imports have totaled just 4.9 MMT so far this year, according to its agriculture minister—a 31% decline year-over-year. As one of the world’s largest wheat importers, this pullback may have added pressure to the market.

  • Ukrainian grain exports for the season reached 40 MMT as of last Friday, down 19% from last year. Wheat exports totaled 15.6 MMT, off 14% year-over-year. Their export season concludes at the end of June.

  • On a bearish note, the European Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit has increased their estimate of EU soft wheat yields. Now seen at 6.08 mt per hectare, this is up 0.04 mt from their projection last month.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Out of Recent Range
A strong breakout above longer-term moving averages and the upper end of the recent range signals bullish momentum. Initial support is at last week’s low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash.

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance at the 50-Day
July closed right at the 50-day moving average today following a strong bullish reversal off today’s low. Closing over today’s high would make the 200-day at 567 the next immediate target.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Rallies Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures surged through resistance this week, setting up 660 as the next upside target. Key support lies at this week’s low and the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that zone — and especially below the May low of 572.50 — would signal the next downside risk. 

Other Charts / Weather

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6-20 End of Day: Grains Slide into the Weekend on Risk-Off Trade and Profit-Taking

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures posted losses Friday alongside soybeans and wheat, as traders adopted a risk-off approach.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower Friday, reversing from early session highs in a bearish technical move — taking out Wednesday’s high but closing below its low.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower Friday, following the broader grain complex. After Thursday’s sharp rally, profit-taking was likely a factor.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures posted losses Friday alongside soybeans and wheat, as traders adopted a risk-off approach. Despite a heat wave expected this weekend, the market remains pressured by forecasts calling for above-normal precipitation across the Midwest, limiting upside momentum.

  • USDA reported corn export sales of 35.6 mb for 2024/25 and 6.1 mb for 2025/26. Shipments last week totaled 68.7 mb, well above the 44.5 mb weekly pace needed to meet the USDA’s 2.650 bb target. Total 2024/25 commitments now stand at 2.631 bb, up 26% from a year ago.

  • Argentina’s corn harvest advanced 3% to 50% complete, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. While yields are reportedly better than expected, the group maintained its production estimate at 49 MMT — slightly below the USDA’s 50 MMT and last year’s 51.6 MMT.

  • The latest EIA report showed ethanol production down 1% on the week to 326 million gallons — still exceeding the pace needed to meet USDA’s 5.5 bb corn use forecast. Ethanol stocks rose 1.6% from the previous week.

Corn Futures Continue to Trade Within Recent Range
Front-month corn remains rangebound within a tight 20-cent band, mostly trading below resistance at 4.46. The recent roll to September futures left an unfilled chart gap. A close above 4.46 could open the door to a move toward 4.65, while support rests near the recent low of 4.20. A break below that would expose the next downside target at 4.08.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A new cash sale target of 1114 has posted.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower, reversing from highs earlier in the day. The move was a bearish reversal having taken out Wednesday’s high but closing below its low. Volume was likely lighter than normal following the holiday and going into the weekend. Both soybean meal and oil were lower today as well.

  • Export sales came in better than expected, with 19.8 mb booked for 2024/25 and 2.8 mb for 2025/26. Top buyers included Germany, Mexico, and unknown destinations. Shipments totaled 14.9 mb, above the 13.2 mb weekly pace needed to reach USDA’s 1.850 bb target.

  • Chinese soybean imports from Brazil surged 37.5% year over year in May, totaling 12.11 MMT versus 8.81 MMT last year. Imports from the U.S. were just 1.63 MMT.

  • For the week, July soybeans lost 1-3/4 cents closing at $10.68 while November soybeans gained 6 cents to $10.60-3/4. July soybean meal lost $7.80 to $284.10 while July bean oil gained a whopping 3.86 cents to 54.47 cents reaching the highest level since September 2023.

Soybeans Pause Near Upper End of Recent Range
Soybeans remain near major resistance that must be cleared to unlock broader upside potential. The macro trend remains sideways, with key resistance at the May high of 1082. A close above that level could target the open gap on the front-month continuous chart from last June, which spans 1161 to 1177. If July futures fail to break 1082, the risk shifts back toward rangebound or lower trade. Initial support is at 1032.5, with a close below that exposing the April low of 970.25 as the next downside risk.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower Friday, following the broader grain complex. After Thursday’s sharp rally, profit-taking was likely a factor, alongside a mostly non-threatening U.S. weather outlook that pressured corn and soybean futures, limiting wheat’s upside.

  • USDA reported wheat export sales of 15.7 mb for 2025/26. Shipments reached 13.4 mb, below the 15.6 mb weekly pace needed to hit USDA’s 825 mb export goal. Total sales commitments for 2025/26 stand at 233 mb, up 17% from last year.

  • Weather conditions in South America could provide underlying support. Heavy rains in southern Brazil are expected to delay winter wheat planting, while persistent dryness in Argentina may hinder crop establishment.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported Argentine wheat planting at 60% complete, up 22% from the previous week. They maintained their production estimate at 20 MMT, which would be an 8% increase year-over-year if realized.

  • The Russian agriculture ministry is anticipating a 2025 wheat crop totaling 90 mmt. For reference, the USDA is using a figure of just 83 mmt. However, both the ag ministry and the USDA are anticipating Russian wheat exports near 45 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Out of Recent Range
A strong breakout above longer-term moving averages and the upper end of the recent range signals bullish momentum. Initial support is at last week’s low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash.

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B downside stop added at 535.75 support.  As long as the September contract continues to hold above this support will remain patient for better opportunities.  If this support breaks then another cash sale will be recommended as further downside could follow

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B downside stop added at 549 support. As long as the July ’26 contract continues to hold above this support will remain patient for better opportunities. If this support breaks then another cash sale will be recommended as further downside could follow.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance at the 50-Day
July closed right at the 50-day moving average today following a strong bullish reversal off today’s low. Closing over today’s high would make the 200-day at 567 the next immediate target.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Rallies Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures surged through resistance this week, setting up 660 as the next upside target. Key support lies at this week’s low and the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that zone — and especially below the May low of 572.50 — would signal the next downside risk. 

Other Charts / Weather

|

6-18 End of Day: Wheat Leads Grain Complex Higher Amid Harvest Delays; Corn and Soy Supported by Weather

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Thursday, June 19, in Observance of Juneteenth

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn posted modest gains for a second consecutive session, supported by strength in wheat and growing concern over hot temperatures forecast for the weekend.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended slightly higher for a fourth straight session, holding near the top of their trading range. Support continues from weaker-than-expected crop ratings and stronger biodiesel demand.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat led the grain complex higher Tuesday, despite limited fresh headlines. Delays to the U.S. winter wheat harvest due to heavy rains in the southern Plains raised quality concerns and likely fueled technical buying and fund short-covering.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn finished modestly higher for a second straight day on support from the wheat market and concerns over higher temperatures moving in this weekend.

  • Weekly ethanol production totaled 326 million gallons — up 5% from a year ago but slightly below last week’s 329 million. Ethanol stocks rose to 24.1 million barrels, compared to 23.6 million last year.

  • LSEG trimmed its Ukraine corn production forecast by 1.4% to 27.8 MMT, citing reduced planted area.

  • Chinese customs data showed May corn imports down 81.6% year-over-year to 190,000 tons. Year-to-date imports are down 93.7% at 630,000 tons, as China continues to curb foreign grain purchases.

Corn Futures Continue to Trade Within Recent Range
The front-month July contract continues to trade within a tight range, mostly between 434 and 446. A close above 446 would open the door to the next upside opportunity at 465.  On the downside, support sits at the June 10 bullish reversal low of 429.25. A close below that level would make 408 the next downside risk to watch.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A new cash sale target of 1114 has posted.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly higher for the fourth consecutive close but remain near the top of their trading range. Poorer than expected crop ratings along with higher biodiesel requirements have been supportive. Soybean meal was lower, and bean oil was mixed with bear spreading pulling the front months lower.

  • China’s May soybean imports rose 26.2% year-over-year to 13.92 MMT, driven largely by South American supply — still a positive sign for global demand.

  • In the U.S., upcoming warmer weather may aid emergence, but crop conditions remain below expectations. Combined with reduced acreage, this could fuel further gains, with some analysts eyeing the $11.00 level.

  • In Argentina, a prominent crop scout increased their projections for soybean production by 1 mmt to 49.5 mmt citing good early yields. This number is relatively in line with the USDA’s expectations.

July Soybeans Pause Near Upper End of Recent Range
July still has major resistance to clear before broader upside opportunities can become more immediate possibilities. Macro trend remains sideways with resistance at the May high of 1082. A close over that resistance and the first upside objective could be the open gap on the front month continuous chart from last June. The gap starts at 1161 and ends at 1177. If July cannot clear 1082 then rangebound to lower trade remains the risk. First support is now at 1032.50. A close below that support and the April low of 970.25 would be the next risk. 

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was the upside leader in the grain complex today, despite a lack of fresh news. Heavy rains in the southern US have delayed winter wheat harvest and are also causing concerns about quality. This may have triggered further technical buying and fund short covering. Additionally, the market could be factoring in war premium due to elevated tensions in the Middle East.

  • Strength in Paris milling wheat supported U.S. prices. September Matif wheat closed six euros higher, breaking through and finishing above the 21-, 40-, and 50-day moving averages — marking a two-and-a-half-week high.

  • According to Chinese customs data, wheat and wheat flour imports for the month of May were down 70.1% year on year, at 560,000 mt. Meanwhile, year to date imports were down 80.1% year on year at 1.61 mmt.

  • German ag co-op DRV raised its 2025 total grain harvest forecast to 41.4 MMT (from 40.7 MMT), up 6% from 2024. Wheat production is now pegged at 21.5 MMT, up from 21.0 MMT last month.

  • The Russian wheat export duty for the period of June 18-24 has declined from 652.5 to 566 Rubles per mt. This represents a 13.3% decrease. For the same timeframe, the barley duty is zero, but increased on corn from 359.9 to 397.3 Rubles.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Out of Recent Range
A strong breakout above longer-term moving averages and the upper end of the recent range signals bullish momentum. Initial support is at last week’s low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash.

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B downside stop added at 535.75 support.  As long as the September contract continues to hold above this support will remain patient for better opportunities.  If this support breaks then another cash sale will be recommended as further downside could follow

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B downside stop added at 549 support. As long as the July ’26 contract continues to hold above this support will remain patient for better opportunities. If this support breaks then another cash sale will be recommended as further downside could follow.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance at the 50-Day
July closed right at the 50-day moving average today following a strong bullish reversal off today’s low. Closing over today’s high would make the 200-day at 567 the next immediate target.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Rallies Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures surged through resistance this week, setting up 660 as the next upside target. Key support lies at this week’s low and the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that zone — and especially below the May low of 572.50 — would signal the next downside risk. 

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

|

6-17 End of Day: Grains Finish Higher as Wheat Leads on Technical Strength; Soy Extends Rally, Corn Follows

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Thursday, June 19, in Observance of Juneteenth

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended higher Tuesday, supported by strength across the grain complex, though July bucked the trend, slipping 4 cents.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed higher for a third straight session, supported by a drop in crop ratings and a drier extended forecast. Soybean oil snapped its sharp rally with a modest loss, while meal finished higher. Normal trading limits will resume tomorrow across the complex.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed with strong gains across all classes, despite a firmer U.S. dollar. Support came from higher Matif wheat, weaker U.S. crop ratings, and likely technical buying as momentum indicators like stochastics and RSI trend higher.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn was higher to end Tuesday’s session, lifted by the wheat market strengthening today. The July contract was the only loser, down 4 cents, to close at $4.3150.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report confirmed U.S. corn planting is complete, with crop conditions improving 1 point to 72% good-to-excellent — matching last year’s rating.

  • Global corn supplies for 2025/26 are projected to rise on improved yields, though the overall balance remains tight due to lower beginning stocks and stronger demand.

  • Corn export inspections totaled 1.673 mmt, down from 1.728 mmt last week, but up from 1.380 mmt last year. Top destinations were Japan and Mexico.

  • AgRural reported that, as of June 12, Brazil’s corn harvest is 5.2% complete, up from 1.9% the week prior but down from 21% finished at this time last year.eek last year.

Corn Futures Continue to Trade Within Recent Range
The front-month July contract continues to trade within a tight range, mostly between 434 and 446. A close above 446 would open the door to the next upside opportunity at 465.  On the downside, support sits at the June 10 bullish reversal low of 429.25. A close below that level would make 408 the next downside risk to watch.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A new cash sale target of 1114 has posted.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher for the third consecutive day following a decline in crop ratings and drier weather in the extended forecast. Soybean oil ended its massive run today with a small loss, while soybean meal closed higher. The soy complex will go back to normal limits tomorrow.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean conditions down 2 points to 66% good-to-excellent — below both last week and the average trade estimate. Planting is 93% complete, with 84% emerged, slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 83%.

  • USDA reported a sale of 120,000 metric tons of soybean meal to unknown destinations for 2025/26. Export sales remain slow, as the U.S. is currently outside its prime soybean export window.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections at 216k tons as of June 12, which compared to 559k the previous week and 341k tons a year ago at this time. Primary destinations were to Germany, Japan, and Mexico.

July Soybeans Pause Near Upper End of Recent Range
July still has major resistance to clear before broader upside opportunities can become more immediate possibilities. Macro trend remains sideways with resistance at the May high of 1082. A close over that resistance and the first upside objective could be the open gap on the front month continuous chart from last June. The gap starts at 1161 and ends at 1177. If July cannot clear 1082 then rangebound to lower trade remains the risk. First support is now at 1032.50. A close below that support and the April low of 970.25 would be the next risk. 

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed with strong gains across all classes, despite a firmer U.S. dollar. Support came from higher Matif wheat, weaker U.S. crop ratings, and likely technical buying as momentum indicators, like stochastics and RSI, trend higher.

  • USDA’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat 93% headed, with conditions slipping 2 points to 52% good-to-excellent. Harvest is 10% complete — well behind last year’s 25% and the 5-year average of 16%. Spring wheat is 89% emerged and 4% headed, with conditions improving 4 points to 57% good-to-excellent.

  • LSEG commodity research has estimated global 25/26 wheat production at 796.44 mmt, which compares with the 24/25 estimate of 798 mmt. Additionally, they are projecting world wheat ending stocks will decline 5.1% to 248.7 mmt.

  • Russian wheat export values are reported by IKAR to have declined last week, due to improving harvest estimates. Through July delivery, new crop Russian wheat ended last week at $222 per mt FOB, down $3 from the week before. However, SovEcon estimated new crop offers at $225 to $229 per mt, which would be steady to down $1 from the prior week.

  • Romania may harvest 12.2 MMT of wheat in 2025/26, according to Argus — the largest since 1997 — up from 10.2 MMT this season on higher yields and expanded acreage.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Remains Rangebound
First downside support should appear at last week’s low of 522.25. A close below that support and the next downside risk would be 506.25. A lot of resistance remains above the market, yet with the recent high and 200-day at 558. A close over 558 and that could provide fuel for a bigger move towards the winter high of 621.75. 

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash.

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B downside stop added at 535.75 support.  As long as the September contract continues to hold above this support will remain patient for better opportunities.  If this support breaks then another cash sale will be recommended as further downside could follow

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B downside stop added at 549 support. As long as the July ’26 contract continues to hold above this support will remain patient for better opportunities. If this support breaks then another cash sale will be recommended as further downside could follow.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance at the 50-Day
July closed right at the 50-day moving average today following a strong bullish reversal off today’s low. Closing over today’s high would make the 200-day at 567 the next immediate target.

Above: Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Retests Recent Highs
uly spring wheat futures closed last week just below the previous Friday’s close of 635.25.  A close over that resistance would make 660 the next first upside target.  Downside support is at this week’s low and the 200-day in the 607 area. A close below that support and the May low of 572.50 would be the first downside risk. 

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

|

6-16 End of Day: Soybeans Continue Higher Monday, Corn and Wheat Lower 

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures started the week on a disappointing note, pressured by weakness in wheat and a reversal in crude oil. 

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended higher, led by deferred contracts, as Friday’s limit-up move in soybean oil fueled strength across the soy complex and triggered expanded limits today. Soybean oil surged again, gapping higher and closing up 4.50 cents in July, while weaker soybean meal limited additional upside. 

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures posted modest losses across all classes, pressured by winter wheat harvest progress, a mostly benign U.S. weather outlook, and reports that Iran may be open to negotiations with Israel, easing geopolitical concerns and weighing on crude oil. 

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section. 

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Volatility-Ready: Positioned well for potential market swings, with a solid base of sales and open call and put option positions in place. Active targets remain set to begin legging out of options and roll down call options to lower strikes as conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn was disappointing today, following the lower wheat market and reversal in crude oil. The July contract closed nearly 10 cents lower to start the week while September and December futures were down 8 cents and 7 cents respectively. 

  • Weekly export inspections totaled 66 mb, near the high end of expectations and well above the pace needed to hit USDA’s 2.650 bb target. Year-to-date inspections stand at 2.049 bb, up 29% from last year. 

  • This afternoon’s Crop Progress report is widely expected to show corn conditions either unchanged from last week at 71% good-to-excellent or a slight increase to 72% good-to-excellent.  

  • Patria reported that Brazil’s corn harvest is now 5.5% complete, well below last year’s pace of 14% during the same week last year.

Corn Futures Continue to Trade Within Recent Range
The front-month July contract continues to trade within a tight range, mostly between 434 and 446. A close above 446 would open the door to the next upside opportunity at 465.  On the downside, support sits at the June 10 bullish reversal low of 429.25. A close below that level would make 408 the next downside risk to watch.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 10. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 9,977 contracts between June 3 – June 10, bringing their total position to a net short 164,020 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

    • No Changes (for Now): Despite last week’s break of 1036.50 support, the 1107 target remains active to recommend making the next sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher with the deferred months posting the majority of gains following Friday’s trade in which limit up soybean oil bolstered the soy complex and led to expanded limits today. While soybean meal was lower and keeping soybeans from rallying further, soybean oil took advantage of its expanded limits, gapped higher and closed up 4.50 cents in the July contract. The soy complex will have expanded limits again tomorrow. 

  • NOPA reported a May crush of 192.83 mb, just below the average estimate of 193.52 mb. Still, it marked a record for May and was up from 190.23 mb in April. 

  • Friday’s Renewable Fuels Association announcement set biomass-based diesel quotas at 3.35 billion gallons for 2025, 5.61 billion for 2026, and 5.86 billion for 2027 — an extremely bullish signal for soybean oil, which has gained 7.50 cents over the past two sessions. 

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds buying 17,038 contracts of soybeans which increased their net long position to 25,639 contracts. They sold 7,222 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 24,768 contracts as of June 10 and bought 9,909 contracts of meal which left them short 86,808 contracts. 

July Soybeans Pause Near Upper End of Recent Range
July still has major resistance to clear before broader upside opportunities can become more immediate possibilities. Macro trend remains sideways with resistance at the May high of 1082. A close over that resistance and the first upside objective could be the open gap on the front month continuous chart from last June. The gap starts at 1161 and ends at 1177. If July cannot clear 1082 then rangebound to lower trade remains the risk. First support is now at 1032.50. A close below that support and the April low of 970.25 would be the next risk. 

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 10. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,724 contracts between June 3 – June 10, bringing their total position to a net long 86,005 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted modest losses across the board, perhaps following crude oil lower after news outlets reported that Iran is willing to negotiate with Israel to bring an end to the hostilities. Additionally, winter wheat harvest pressure and a largely non-threatening U.S. weather forecast add weight to the shoulders of the market.  

  • Weekly wheat inspections reached 14.3 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 22 mb, which is down 17% from the year prior. Inspections are running below the USDA’s estimated pace; total 25/26 exports are forecast at 825 mb, up 1% from the year before.  

  • CFTC data showed managed funds were net buyers of wheat for the fourth straight week, covering 6,500 contracts in Chicago and 3,000 in Kansas City. The total net short across all three wheat classes has narrowed from a record 235,000 contracts to about 183,000. 

  • Scattered rains fell in Argentina’s central and northern wheat-growing areas over the weekend, aiding early development. Western Europe, the Black Sea region, and parts of China also saw rain, though it may be too late to significantly help crops there. 

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • New put options target added.

      • Put option coverage is leveraged for early downside protection in the event of a break of support.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Remains Rangebound
First downside support should appear at last week’s low of 522.25. A close below that support and the next downside risk would be 506.25. A lot of resistance remains above the market, yet with the recent high and 200-day at 558. A close over 558 and that could provide fuel for a bigger move towards the winter high of 621.75. 

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, June 10. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 17,038 contracts between June 3 – June 10, bringing their total position to a net long 25,639 contracts. 

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 697 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • New cash sale target and new put option target.

      • Given the high yield variability from year to year in Hard Red Winter wheat, put option coverage is leveraged for early downside protection in the event of a break of support.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance at the 50-Day
July closed right at the 50-day moving average today following a strong bullish reversal off today’s low. Closing over today’s high would make the 200-day at 567 the next immediate target.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, June 10. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,064 contracts between June 3 – June 10, bringing their total position to a net short 74,964 contracts. 

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • None. Another few weeks before price targets may post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Retests Recent Highs
uly spring wheat futures closed last week just below the previous Friday’s close of 635.25.  A close over that resistance would make 660 the next first upside target.  Downside support is at this week’s low and the 200-day in the 607 area. A close below that support and the May low of 572.50 would be the first downside risk. 

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, June 10. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,927 contracts between June 3 – June 10, bringing their total position to a net short 14,150 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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6-13 End of Day: Grains Rally on Geopolitical Tensions and Biofuel Boost

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended the week mixed as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a surge in crude oil triggered short covering, while strong export demand and bullish biofuel blending targets added support. However, favorable crop weather and anticipation of the upcoming Planted Acreage report provide upside resistance.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans rallied sharply into the weekend, driven by stronger-than-expected biomass diesel quotas that lifted biofuel demand prospects and pushed prices toward key resistance levels. Support also came from expectations for a solid NOPA crush report, while upcoming Midwest rainfall added upside resistance.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures surged to end the week, fueled by spillover strength from soybeans and geopolitical tensions after Israel’s reported strike on Iran, prompting short covering and risk-driven buying. Rising drought concerns in U.S. wheat regions and ongoing planting progress in Argentina also added underlying support.

  • To see the updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Volatility-Ready: Positioned well for potential market swings, with a solid base of sales and open call and put option positions in place. Active targets remain set to begin legging out of options and roll down call options to lower strikes as conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a fourth portion of your 2026 corn. The December ‘26 contract has reached the upside target of 474.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Money flowed into the grain markets to end the week, and corn futures followed as futures traded higher to end the week. July futures traded 2 cents higher on the week, breaking a two-week losing streak. December corn finished the week 6 ¼ cents lower.

  • Geopolitical tensions added uncertainty to the markets as Israel launched an attack against Iranian nuclear sites during the overnight. The crude oil market traded sharply higher and helped trigger some short covering in the corn market. Traders will be watching the headlines closely over the weekend to see if there will be any escalation in the conflict.

  • July futures saw additional short covering and follow-through buying after Thursday’s close and supportive USDA report. Old crop corn carryover is at 1.365 BB, supported by strong export demand for U.S. corn. Expectations are for the carryout number to be tightened in future reports as current export sales are at 96% of the market year total on the day of the June report.

  • Strong buying in the soybean market helped support corn futures with the announcement of the EPA on the biofuels blending mandate targets. The blending target came in higher than expected at 5.6 billion gallons for 2026 and 5.86 billion gallons for 2027. This is up significantly from the current target of 3.35 billion gallons for 2025. Soybean oil traded the price limit higher on the session, fueling the soybean rally.

  • The corn market will be focused on global headlines and weather going into the end of June. Forecasts are staying favorable for crops during this time frame, limiting the corn rally potential. The June Planted Acreage report is 17 days away and will be the report likely to set the direction of the corn market into the summer months.

Corn Futures Finish at the Top End of a Nine-Day Trading Range
The front-month July contract continues to trade within a tight range, mostly between 434 and 446. A close above 446 would open the door to the next upside opportunity at 465. On the downside, support sits at the June 10 bullish reversal low of 429.25. A close below that level would make 408 the next downside risk to watch.

Above: From USDA – US corn total export commitments for 2020 (purple), 2021 (blue), 2022 (green), 2023 (orange), 2024 (red), and 2025 (black).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

    • No Changes (for Now): Despite last week’s break of 1036.50 support, the 1107 target remains active to recommend making the next sale.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 49 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed substantially higher heading into the weekend after new biomass diesel quotas came in higher than previously rumored. The November contract will now look to break above the first resistance level around $10.60 with the second resistance around $10.65 after today’s newfound strength.

  • The Renewable Fuels Association released the new biomass quotas today, which now stand to be 3.35 billion gallons for 2025, 5.61 billion gallons for 2026, and 5.86 billion gallons for 2027.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange slightly bumped their soybean production estimate for Argentina to 50.3 mmt, up from their previous estimate of 50 mb. The group also pegged soybean harvest in the country at 93.2% done.

  • Monday will be the release of the May NOPA Crush report. Average analyst guesses are at 193.519 mb, which if realized, would be up 1.7% from the month prior and 5.4% higher than May of last year.

  • Rainfall is expected over the next 7 days, with a majority of the soybean belt seeing anywhere from 0.25” to 4”. Higher totals are expected South of the I-80 line into Missouri and the Delta region.

July soybeans posts highest close since May 14
Strong weekly close, yet July still has major resistance to clear before broader upside opportunities can become more immediate possibilities. Macro trend remains sideways with resistance at the May high of 1082. A close over that resistance and the first upside objective could be the open gap on the front-month continuous chart from last June. The gap starts at 1161 and ends at 1177. If July cannot clear 1082 then rangebound to lower trade remains the risk. First support is now at 1032.50. A close below that support and the April low of 970.25 would be the next risk.

Above: From USDA – US soybean total export commitments for 2020 (purple), 2021 (blue), 2022 (green), 2023 (orange), 2024 (red), and 2025 (black).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed out the week sharply higher as it followed strong gains in the soy complex. Israel is reported to have launched attacks on Iran overnight, targeting their nuclear infrastructure. This led to a mix of short covering and speculative buying interest as war premium was factored back into the trade.

  • As reported by the USDA, as of June 10, an estimated 15% of winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, up from 12% a week ago. Drought also expanded in spring wheat areas by 1% to 20% for the same time period. At this time last year, only 3% of spring wheat acres were in drought.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, wheat planting in Argentina advanced 15% last week to 38.5% complete. A storm system moving across northeastern Argentina today and tomorrow should bring beneficial moisture to the newly planted wheat, but will likely delay harvest of corn and soybeans as well.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • New put options target added.

      • Put option coverage is leveraged for early downside protection in the event of a break of support.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Finishes the Week with a Bullish Daily Reversal
The July ended a four-day losing streak, erased three days of losses, and closed back above the 50-day on the front month continuous following today’s outside bullish daily reversal. That reversal now establishes first downside support at today’s low of 522.25. A close below that support and the next downside risk would be 506.25. A lot of resistance remains above the market, yet with the recent high and 200-day at 558. A close over 558 and that could provide fuel for a bigger move towards the winter high of 621.75.

Above: From USDA – US wheat total export commitments for 2020 (purple), 2021 (blue), 2022 (green), 2023 (orange), 2024 (red), and 2025 (black).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 697 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • New cash sale target and new put option target.

      • Given the high yield variability from year to year in Hard Red Winter wheat, put option coverage is leveraged for early downside protection in the event of a break of support.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance at the 50-Day
July closed right at the 50-day moving average today following a strong bullish reversal off today’s low. Closing over today’s high would make the 200-day at 567 the next immediate target.

Above: From USDA – US wheat total export commitments for 2020 (purple), 2021 (blue), 2022 (green), 2023 (orange), 2024 (red), and 2025 (black).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • None. Another few weeks before price targets may post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Retests Last Week’s High
July spring wheat futures closed just below last Friday’s close of 635.25. A close over that resistance would make 660 the next first upside target. Downside support is at this week’s low and the 200-day in the 607 area. A close below that support and the May low of 572.50 would be the first downside risk.

Above: From USDA – US wheat total export commitments for 2020 (purple), 2021 (blue), 2022 (green), 2023 (orange), 2024 (red), and 2025 (black).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 6-10 day temperature outlook courtesy of NOAA.

Above: US 6-10 day precipitation outlook courtesy of NOAA.

|

6-12 End of Day: Grains Mixed After Uneventful WASDE Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended slightly higher on Thursday, supported by a lower-than-expected old crop carryout in the USDA’s WASDE report due to stronger export demand. However, gains were limited by weakness in other grains and uncertainty around upcoming biofuel blending targets.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean prices closed lower as traders reacted to a mostly neutral WASDE report that made minimal changes to U.S. and global balance sheets, while a bearish weather outlook added pressure. Slight increases in global carryout and Brazil’s production estimate also contributed to the weakness.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures were mixed following a neutral USDA WASDE report that held U.S. production and stocks mostly steady but showed slight global stock declines. Harvest pressure and shifting trader focus to field activity weighed on Chicago and Kansas City markets, while Minneapolis found modest support.

  • To see the updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Rally Watch: With five sales recommendations since December 30 at an average price of around 492, there’s a solid cushion in place to continue aiming for a weather rally for next sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Volatility-Ready: Positioned well for potential market swings, with a solid base of sales and open call and put option positions in place. Active targets remain set to begin legging out of options and roll down call options to lower strikes as conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a fourth portion of your 2026 corn. The December ‘26 contract has reached the upside target of 474.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished the session slightly higher on Thursday after the USDA report lowered old crop corn carryout due to stronger than anticipated export demand. Weakness in other grains limited the corn market’s upside. Going into Friday, July corn futures are trading 4 cents lower on the week; Dec corn futures were 8 ¾ cents lower.

  • USDA released the June WASDE report on Thursday morning. While the June report is typically a quiet report, the USDA did raise the current export forecast to 2.650 BB, lowering 2024-25 marketing year carryout to 1.365 BB. This was lower than analyst expectations and helped support the old crop futures in the session.

  • The USDA released the weekly Export Sales report on Thursday morning. For the week ending June 5, exporters reported new sales of 791,000 MT (31.2 mb). This total was down 26% from last week, but still within expectations. Japan was the largest buyer on U.S. corn last week.

  • The Trump administration announced the EPA has completed their review of the biofuels blending requirements and should announce the targets for 2025-26 on Friday. Concerns that the total could be less than expected may limit corn futures.

  • With the USDA report behind the market, the focus of the corn market will shift back to weather, and the planted acres report at the end of the month.

Corn Futures Settle Into a Tight, Five-Day Range
The front-month July contract has settled into a tight five-day trading range, largely between 433 and 445. A close below 433 would open the door to downside risk toward 408, while a close above 445 would point to an upside opportunity near 465.

Above: Update on US carryout and stocks-to-use after today’s June WASDE report.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

    • No Changes (for Now): Despite last week’s break of 1036.50 support, the 1107 target remains active to recommend making the next sale.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 49 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower on the day following an overall neutral WASDE report, which showed very few changes to the soybean outlook both in the U.S. and globally.

  • June’s WASDE report showed minor changes for soybeans, but did increase the 2025/26 world carryout number from 124.3 mmt in May to 125.3 mmt. Ending stocks were left unchanged for 2024/25 at 350 MB, along with 2025/26 ending stocks at 295 mb.

  • Production estimates for 2024 soybeans in Brazil and Argentina were left unchanged from the month prior in today’s report at 169.0 mmt and 49.0 mmt, respectively.

  • Conab raised their soybean production forecast to 169.6 mmt, up from 168.34 mmt last month and slightly higher than the USDA’s 169.0 mmt number.

  • The weather outlook over the next week remains bearish for much of the soybean belt as chances of rain step back in, which may add further downward pressure to prices.

Soybean Futures Stall – Resistance Remains
Last Monday, the July contract closed 8 cents lower, breaking 1036.50 support and posting its lowest close since April 10. Over the next four trading days, July rallied, gaining about 24 cents and finishing the week up 16 cents net. The four-day winning streak pushed July back above all major moving averages, but to break out of the broader sideways trading range that’s held since last summer, the contract still needs to clear the May high of 1082.

Above: Update on US carryout and stocks-to-use after today’s June WASDE report.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a two-sided trade, Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures posted losses, while Minneapolis made modest gains. All eyes were focused on this morning’s USDA Supply and Demand report, which was relatively neutral overall. Traders have likely moved their attention back to winter wheat harvest, which is adding pressure to those markets.

  • On today’s WASDE report, the USDA kept their 25/26 all wheat production estimate unchanged from May at 1.921 mb – the trade was anticipating a slight increase. U.S. ending stocks for 24/25 were kept steady at 841 mb. However, for the 25/26 marketing year, ending stocks decreased 25 mb from last month to 898 mb due to higher exports.

  • Globally, 24/25 wheat carryout declined from 265.2 mmt in May to 264 mmt today. For 25/26, there was also a decrease from 265.7 mmt to 262.8 mmt.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 14.3 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week at 4.3 mb were well under the 15.38 mb pace needed per week to reach their 25/26 export goal of 800 mb. Total 25/26 export commitments have reached 217 mb, up 22% from last year.

  • The Rosario Exchange in Argentina has reduced their nation’s 25/26 wheat production estimate from 21 mmt to 20.7 mmt. The reason for the decline is said to be a smaller planted area due to recent heavy rains that caused flooding issues.

  • Coceral has increased their estimate of 2025 European Union soft wheat production to 143.1 mmt from the March estimate of 137.2 mmt. For reference, the 2024 crop totaled 126.3 mmt. The reason for the increase was cited as favorable weather in France, Spain, and southeastern Europe.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • New put options target added.

      • Put option coverage is leveraged for early downside protection in the event of a break of support.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Hits Resistance
The July contract faced a sharp rejection after testing the 200-day moving average at 557.75. A close above that level could open the door for a broader rally toward the April high of 621.75. However, until that resistance is cleared, the risk remains for sideways-to-lower trade, with 506.25 as the recent downside reference point.

Above: Update on US carryout and stocks-to-use after today’s June WASDE report.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 697 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • New cash sale target and new put option target.

      • Given the high yield variability from year to year in Hard Red Winter wheat, put option coverage is leveraged for early downside protection in the event of a break of support.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance At 550
First resistance stands at last week’s high of 550.50. A breakout above that level would shift focus to the 100-day and 200-day moving averages in the 565–567 range. Clearing that secondary resistance could open the door to broader upside potential, with targets in the 600–620 zone — near the early spring highs. On the downside, the May low of 500.25 remains a key support level. Failure to break out above resistance would keep the trend sideways to lower, with that low as the next risk.

Above: Update on US carryout and stocks-to-use after today’s June WASDE report.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Leading the Complex
July spring wheat futures have outperformed both Chicago and KC wheat since all three markets bottomed in mid-May. It is the only July wheat contract currently trading above all three major moving averages — the 50-, 100-, and 200-day — which have now converged in the 605–610 range, establishing a key support zone. A close below 605 would expose the market to downside risk toward 580. However, as long as 605 holds, the broader upside potential remains intact, with room to rally toward the 660 level.

Above: Update on US carryout and stocks-to-use after today’s June WASDE report.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 8-14 day temperature outlook courtesy of NOAA.

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6-11 End of Day: Grain Markets Fade from Session Highs as June WASDE Looms

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures faded from early gains to close lower, as the market lacked fresh bullish catalysts despite record ethanol production and easing U.S.-China trade tensions; attention now turns to Thursday’s WASDE and export data for potential demand-driven support.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures slipped after early strength, weighed down by a bearish weather outlook and rising global stock projections, while U.S.-China trade talks offered cautious optimism despite no direct ag commitments.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended mostly higher, boosted by a weaker U.S. dollar and concerns over wet U.S. harvest conditions and Russian drought, while traders await Thursday’s WASDE for updated stock and production estimates.

  • To see the updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Rally Watch: With five sales recommendations since December 30 at an average price of around 492, there’s a solid cushion in place to continue aiming for a weather rally for next sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Volatility-Ready: Positioned well for potential market swings, with a solid base of sales and open call and put option positions in place. Active targets remain set to begin legging out of options and roll down call options to lower strikes as conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a fourth portion of your 2026 corn. The December ‘26 contract has reached the upside target of 474.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Disappointing close in the corn market as prices failed to hold early session strength and finished lower on the day. The July contract led the push lower as the old crop market is looking for news to push the market higher.

  • Early session gains were fueled by optimism of an easing of the U.S.-China trade tension as negotiations in London reach some agreements. While it is still not a major trade agreement, it is still a stepping stone to further talks between the two countries.

  • The USDA will release the June WASDE report on Thursday. Analysts are expecting little change in the new crop forecasts from May, but the focus will be on demand projections for the old crop. Expectations are for adjustments higher in export demand, which could lower corn carryout for 2024-25 below 1.400 billion bushels.

  • Weekly ethanol production last week reached a record high of 1,120K barrels per day in the week ending June 6. An estimated total of 108.6 mb was used in ethanol production last week. This total was on pace to reach the USDA target for corn usage for the marketing year. Ethanol stocks slipped to 23.7 million barrels, down from 24.4 million barrels from last week.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Corn export demand has been strong as sales are nearly reaching the USDA market-year target. Shipments may be the key number going forward as U.S. bushels are not competing against South American bushels on the export market.

Corn Futures Settle Into a Tight, Five-Day Range
The front-month July contract has settled into a tight five-day trading range, largely between 433 and 445. A close below 433 would open the door to downside risk toward 408, while a close above 445 would point to an upside opportunity near 465.

Above: From USDA – Historical month-to-month changes in the projected U.S. corn yield per crop year. Ahead of tomorrow’s USDA June WASDE report, this table illustrates how uncommon it is for the USDA to change the projected national average corn yield on the June WASDE report.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

    • No Changes (for Now): Despite last week’s break of 1036.50 support, the 1107 target remains active to recommend making the next sale.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES –

    • Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 49 cents in premium, plus fees and commission. This is a recommendation to purchase a second round of 1040 puts, following the first round advised on May 6.

    • Sell another portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans couldn’t keep up the momentum from early morning gains, closing lower on the day as a bearish weather outlook leads to choppy price action. July futures have been relatively flat with prices floating in a 13-cent range between $10.50 and $10.63 so far this week.

  • Tomorrow’s WASDE report is expected to show 2025/26 world ending stocks at 124.5 mmt, which would be higher than May’s 124.3 mmt number. Estimates for U.S. 2024/25 carryout are at 351 mb, while 2025/26 estimates are at 298 mb.

  • Anec sees Brazil’s soybean exports for the month of June reaching 14.08 mmt, up from last week’s estimate of 12.55 mmt.

  • Trade talks between the U.S. and China were reportedly successful with the two sides agreeing to a framework deal which would include magnets and rare earth minerals. There was no mention of U.S. agricultural goods, but now that the two sides seem to be on better terms, a deal could come into play at some point.

Soybean Futures Stall – Resistance Remains
Last Monday, the July contract closed 8 cents lower, breaking 1036.50 support and posting its lowest close since April 10. Over the next four trading days, July rallied, gaining about 24 cents and finishing the week up 16 cents net. The four-day winning streak pushed July back above all major moving averages, but to break out of the broader sideways trading range that’s held since last summer, the contract still needs to clear the May high of 1082.

Above: From USDA – Historical month-to-month changes in the projected U.S. soybean yield per crop year. Ahead of tomorrow’s USDA June WASDE report, this table illustrates how uncommon it is for the USDA to change the projected national average soybean yield on the June WASDE report.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed mostly higher, led by Minneapolis futures. Support came from a drop in the U.S. Dollar Index, which itself was tied to today’s CPI report that showed consumer prices increased 0.1% in May compared to expectations of a 0.2% increase.

  • Tomorrow will feature the monthly WASDE report. The average pre-report estimate of old crop wheat stocks at 844 mb, compared to 841 mb last month. New crop is estimated at 919 mb versus 923 mb last month, with production pegged at 1.925 bb.

  • While U.S. weather remains mostly favorable, the southern Midwest and southeast Plains are still too wet. Continued rains will delay winter wheat harvest activity and could also affect quality and production.

  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports are down 33% year over year at 19.5 mmt as of June 8. This compares with 29.2 mmt shipped through the same time last year.

  • The Rostov area of Russia, which is their biggest grain production region, has declared a state of emergency due to drought. Spring frosts were also an issue, though less damaging than they were a year ago. This region is set to begin harvest the second part of June.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The 693.75 target has been cancelled.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None. Continue to target 675 to make a second sale.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Hits Resistance
The July contract faced a sharp rejection after testing the 200-day moving average at 557.75. A close above that level could open the door for a broader rally toward the April high of 621.75. However, until that resistance is cleared, the risk remains for sideways-to-lower trade, with 506.25 as the recent downside reference point.

Above: From USDA – Historical month-to-month changes in the projected U.S. wheat yield per crop year. Ahead of tomorrow’s USDA June WASDE report, this table illustrates that the USDA has made an adjustment to the projected national average wheat yield on every June WASDE report going back to the 1993 crop year. The USDA has raised the yield projection on the last 10 consecutive June WASDE reports.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance At 550
First resistance stands at last week’s high of 550.50. A breakout above that level would shift focus to the 100-day and 200-day moving averages in the 565–567 range. Clearing that secondary resistance could open the door to broader upside potential, with targets in the 600–620 zone — near the early spring highs. On the downside, the May low of 500.25 remains a key support level. Failure to break out above resistance would keep the trend sideways to lower, with that low as the next risk.

Above: From USDA – Historical month-to-month changes in the projected U.S. wheat yield per crop year. Ahead of tomorrow’s USDA June WASDE report, this table illustrates that the USDA has made an adjustment to the projected national average wheat yield on every June WASDE report going back to the 1993 crop year. The USDA has raised the yield projection on the last 10 consecutive June WASDE reports.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Leading the Complex
July spring wheat futures have outperformed both Chicago and KC wheat since all three markets bottomed in mid-May. It is the only July wheat contract currently trading above all three major moving averages — the 50-, 100-, and 200-day — which have now converged in the 605–610 range, establishing a key support zone. A close below 605 would expose the market to downside risk toward 580. However, as long as 605 holds, the broader upside potential remains intact, with room to rally toward the 660 level.

Above: From USDA – Historical month-to-month changes in the projected U.S. wheat yield per crop year. Ahead of tomorrow’s USDA June WASDE report, this table illustrates that the USDA has made an adjustment to the projected national average wheat yield on every June WASDE report going back to the 1993 crop year. The USDA has raised the yield projection on the last 10 consecutive June WASDE reports.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 3-day maximum heat index forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 7-day maximum heat index forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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6-10 End of Day: Corn & Soybeans Steady-to-Higher, Wheat Lower Again

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn prices rebounded off session lows to finish higher on the day, despite a 2% increase to 71% Good/Excellent in Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report. Today’s reversal may also signal the beginning of position-squaring ahead of Thursday’s USDA WASDE report.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day in positive territory, though well off their session highs. Beneficial weather continues to provide resistance, while optimism over potential trade deals is offering support. Reports indicate that U.S.–China trade talks went well yesterday, but no official agreement has been announced.

  • 🌾 Wheat: All three wheat classes posted sizeable losses for a second consecutive session following improvements in winter and spring wheat crop conditions, as reported in the latest USDA Crop Progress Report. Adding to the bearish tone was an overnight statement from Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, projecting this year’s Russian grain harvest at 135 million metric tons — a 7% increase from last year.

  • To see the updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No Action Yet: Still waiting on a potential spring/summer weather volatility rally before recommending the next sale.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Volatility-Ready: Positioned well for potential market swings, with a solid base of sales and open call and put option positions in place. Active targets remain set to begin legging out of options and roll down call options to lower strikes as conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a fourth portion of your 2026 corn. The December ‘26 contract has reached the upside target of 474.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Buyers came back into the corn market on a “turn around” Tuesday as the market was pulled higher by the front month futures as traders may have started covering short positions before Thursday’s USDA WASDE report.

  • According to the USDA ‘s latest Crop Progress and Condition report on Monday afternoon, 97% of the corn crop is planted. This leaves approximately 2.8 million acres left to be planted on June 10. These acres, if unplanted, could lower the total planted acres for corn on the June 30 acre report back below 95 million, which should support Dec corn futures at these levels.

  • The USDA will release the June WASDE report on Thursday. Analysts are expecting little change in the new crop forecasts from May, but the focus will be on demand projections for the old crop. Expectations are for adjustments higher in export demand, which could lower corn carryout for 2024-25 below 1.400 billion bushels.

  • Corn crop conditions improved by 2% Good/Excellent to 71% G/E in Monday’s Crop Progress report. The firmness in corn prices on Tuesday may have signified that those conditions were priced in with the weakness on Monday.

  • Corn charts saw an improved technical picture with Tuesday’s close as prices reversed higher off early session lows. Price follow-through on Wednesday may be key for signaling a turn in an oversold market.

Corn Futures Settle Into a Tight, Five-Day Range
The front-month July contract has settled into a tight five-day trading range, largely between 433 and 445. A close below 433 would open the door to downside risk toward 408, while a close above 445 would point to an upside opportunity near 465.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

    • No Changes (for Now): Despite last week’s break of 1036.50 support, the 1107 target remains active to recommend making the next sale.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES –

    • Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 49 cents in premium, plus fees and commission. This is a recommendation to purchase a second round of 1040 puts, following the first round advised on May 6.

    • Sell another portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans finished the day in positive territory, though they reversed off earlier highs that saw the July contract up more than 6 cents at one point. Beneficial weather has continued to apply downward pressure, while optimism over potential trade deals with other countries has offered support. Both soybean meal and soybean oil also ended the day higher.

  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its updated Crop Progress report which showed the crop at 90% planted which was up from 84% a week ago, and 75% has emerged which compared to 63% a week ago. Crop conditions improved by 1 point with 68% of the crop now rated good to excellent.

  • China imported a record number of soybeans in the month of May. For the month, China imported an estimated 13.92 MMT (511 MB). The strong imports followed disappointing totals in February, March, and April as Chinese importers were waiting for the freshly harvested Brazilian soybeans to hit the export market.

  • The trade talks between the U.S. and China yesterday reportedly went well but a deal has not yet been released. Trade deals with Japan, India, Vietnam, and South Korea are reportedly very close.

Soybean Futures Stall – Resistance Remains
Last Monday, the July contract closed 8 cents lower, breaking 1036.50 support and posting its lowest close since April 10. Over the next four trading days, July rallied, gaining about 24 cents and finishing the week up 16 cents net. The four-day winning streak pushed July back above all major moving averages, but to break out of the broader sideways trading range that’s held since last summer, the contract still needs to clear the May high of 1082.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was the downside leader in the grain complex today, pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar, lower Matif wheat futures, and improving U.S. crop ratings. Additionally, from a technical perspective, all three U.S. futures classes now have downward momentum on the daily RSI and stochastics.

  • According to the USDA Crop Progress report, winter wheat conditions improved 2% from last week to 54% good to excellent. Additionally, 88% of the crop is headed and harvest is 4% complete, which is well below last year’s 11% pace and the average of 7%. The Spring wheat crop is 82% emerged, and conditions improved 3% from a week ago to 53% good to excellent.

  • Overnight, the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia stated that this year’s Russian grain harvest would total 135 mmt, which would be 7% above last year’s 125.9 mmt production. Additionally, 93% of their winter crops are said to be in good condition. This added to pressure in the U.S. wheat market today.

  • Wheat harvest is set to start in the North China Plain this week, though may be delayed by scattered rains late in the week. Heaviest rain totals will be across southeast China into next week.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The 693.75 target has been cancelled.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None. Continue to target 675 to make a second sale.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Hits Resistance
The July contract faced a sharp rejection after testing the 200-day moving average at 557.75. A close above that level could open the door for a broader rally toward the April high of 621.75. However, until that resistance is cleared, the risk remains for sideways-to-lower trade, with 506.25 as the recent downside reference point.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance At 550
First resistance stands at last week’s high of 550.50. A breakout above that level would shift focus to the 100-day and 200-day moving averages in the 565–567 range. Clearing that secondary resistance could open the door to broader upside potential, with targets in the 600–620 zone — near the early spring highs. On the downside, the May low of 500.25 remains a key support level. Failure to break out above resistance would keep the trend sideways to lower, with that low as the next risk.

Above: Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop. This marks the sixth sale for the 2024 crop and may well be the final sales recommendation for this marketing year, as Grain Market Insider shifts focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops moving forward. Use this rally as an opportunity to consider pricing any remaining unsold bushels.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Leading the Complex
July spring wheat futures have outperformed both Chicago and KC wheat since all three markets bottomed in mid-May. It is the only July wheat contract currently trading above all three major moving averages — the 50-, 100-, and 200-day — which have now converged in the 605–610 range, establishing a key support zone. A close below 605 would expose the market to downside risk toward 580. However, as long as 605 holds, the broader upside potential remains intact, with room to rally toward the 660 level.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

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