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10-29 End of Day:  Grains Steady Ahead of Trump–Xi Trade Meeting

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended mixed Wednesday as prices consolidated within Tuesday’s range, with bull spreading noted as nearby contracts outperformed deferred.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended mixed Wednesday following two weeks of strong gains totaling 60 cents. The market paused ahead of the highly anticipated meeting between President Trump and China’s President Xi.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended mixed Wednesday, with light bull spreading noted in both Chicago and Kansas City contracts as buying interest favored the front months.

  • To see the updated U.S. and South American weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

  • The release of new crop progress data has been delayed as a result of the government shutdown. Updated figures will be issued following the resumption of government operations.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December 2026 futures close above 483 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been raised from 482 to 483.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 483 vs December 2026. A close above 483 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market was mixed on Wednesday, as prices consolidated within yesterday’s trading range. The market saw bull spreading with strength in the December contract. December corn futures gained 2 cents to close at 434, and March added ¾ cents to 446 ¾.

  • Weekly ethanol production slipped 1.9% week-over-week to 1.091 million barrels/day for the week ending October 24. Production was below expectations. An estimated 109 mb of corn was used last week in ethanol production.

  • Technically, the corn market remains supported, though the December contract continues to face resistance near the 200-day moving average at 437.

  • A meeting between President Trump and President Xi of China is scheduled for tomorrow. The prospects of a trade deal are helping support grain futures.

  • The Federal Reserve’s 0.25% rate cut Wednesday afternoon strengthened the U.S. dollar, which may act as a headwind for grain prices heading into Thursday’s session.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if January 2026 futures close above 1175 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B call option target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1175 vs January 2026. A close above 1175 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell the first portion of your crop if November 2026 futures break below 1045.

    • Buy call options if November 2026 futures close above 1161 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B stop sale target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Key support for November 2026 futures is at 1045 – a break below this level would indicate the potential for a trend change. A stop is used to allow the current market trend to continue developing and will only trigger a sale recommendation if prices close below this level.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day after two days of massive gains and a gain of 60 cents over the past two weeks. Today’s quiet trade comes ahead of the meeting between President Trump and Xi. November soybeans were up 2 cents to $10.80-1/4 while March was down 1-1/2 cents to $11.05-1/4. December bean meal was up $2.20 to $308.70, and December bean oil was down 0.10 cents to 50.16 cents.

  • Tomorrow in South Korea, President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi about a trade agreement. This news will likely come tonight local time due to the time difference. While no details are known, Trade Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that U.S. farmers would be happy with the deal.

  • China reportedly purchased three cargoes of U.S. soybeans yesterday—two out of the Gulf and one from the Pacific Northwest—the first such purchase in months. While the volume was small, it was viewed as an encouraging sign ahead of trade talks. Still, most of China’s near-term soybean needs have already been covered by South American supplies.

  • In Brazil, soybean crushing is expected to hit a record high of 177 mmt for 25/26 according to Rabobank, which would be up 3% year to year. Brazilian planted soybean area is estimated at 48.8 million hectares, which would be up 2% from the previous year.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a mixed close. Light bull spreading was noted in both Chicago and Kansas City futures, in which there was more buying interest in the front months compared to the back months. December Chicago gained 3-1/4 cents to 532-1/4, Kansas City rose 2-3/4 to 522-3/4, while Minneapolis slipped 1-1/4 to 560-1/2. Like soybeans, wheat appears to be in “wait-and-see” mode ahead of the upcoming meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi.

  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports as of October 26 totaled 6.2 mmt since the season began on July 1. This represents a 21% decline from the 7.9 mmt shipped during a similar period last year.

  • LSEG commodities research has estimated Australian 25/26 wheat production at 34.8 mmt, which is up 2% from the last forecast. This bump is said to largely be supported by satellite imagery, which shows good vegetation density in wheat-growing regions.

  • One private estimate has pegged China’s 26/27 wheat production at 141 mmt, with planted area steady with the prior season at 23.62 million hectares. Winter wheat in China is typically planted between September and November, but the planting pace has been delayed due to heavy rains in October.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Notes:

        • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 futures close above 669 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

      • A Plan B call option target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 669 vs July 2026. A close above 669 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 590.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 590.50.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 590.50 vs December ‘25. A close above 590.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 closes at or above 648.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:
      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 590.50 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 590.50.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 590.50 vs December ‘25. A close above 590.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 KC wheat closes at or above 648.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day temperature outlook courtesy of ag-wx.com

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10-28 End of Day:  Grains Continue Higher as Trade Meeting Approaches

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures continued their upward momentum as trade optimism triggered technical buying and short covering.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures led grains higher as the market awaits additional trade deal details from Thursday’s meeting.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures managed to close slightly higher, finding some spillover strength from soybeans and corn.

  • To see the updated U.S. and South American weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

  • The release of new crop progress data has been delayed as a result of the government shutdown. Updated figures will be issued following the resumption of government operations.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December 2026 futures close above 483 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been raised from 482 to 483.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 483 vs December 2026. A close above 483 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • December corn futures traded to their highest level since July 3 on Tuesday as short covering and technical buying triggered strength in the grain markets regarding trade optimism pushing prices higher. December corn traded as high as 436 ¼, before settling 3 ¼ cents higher to 432. March gained 1 ¾ cents to 446.

  • December corn futures have rallied 27 cents since the October 14 low at 409. Resistance over the top of the December futures is the 200-day moving average at 437. December corn hasn’t closed over this point since May 23. Producer selling likely limited the upside potential in the December contract late in the session.

  • Market analysts projected the corn harvest to be nearly 72% complete this past week as the harvest moves into its later stages. Corn harvest is likely moving past the “harvest pressure” stage with less than 30% remaining. Last year, the corn harvest was 81% complete for this date.

  • The U.S. and Japan finalized and signed a trade deal on Tuesday. Over the last five years, Japan has averaged $14.3 billion in U.S. ag imports. An average of 18% of that total was Japanese corn imports from the U.S.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if January 2026 futures close above 1175 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B call option target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1175 vs January 2026. A close above 1175 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if November 2026 futures close above 1161 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the second consecutive day and have gained 36-1/2 cents on the week and 72 cents over the past 2 weeks. November gained 11 cents today to $10.78-1/4 while March gained 11-1/4 cents to $11.06-3/4. December soybean meal gained $8.30 to $306.50 and December soybean oil lost 0.51 cents to 50.26 cents.

  • President Trump and China’s President Xi will meet this Thursday to discuss a trade deal, and Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that China is expected to resume “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans, with the planned 100% tariff for November 1 reportedly withdrawn. Prices will likely react strongly on Thursday morning to whatever the trade deal results are.

  • Surveys estimate that 84% of the soybean crop is now harvested with guesses ranging between 80 and 88%. This would compare to 74% at this time a week ago and 89% a year ago.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw 1,061k tons of soybeans inspected for export, which compared to 1,590k last week and 2,631k tons a year ago. Top destinations were to Mexico, Egypt, and Italy. Export demand has been decent, given China’s absence.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted gains today, albeit most contracts settled at least a nickel below session highs. Initial strength faded when soybeans lost upward momentum around 11 AM – corn and wheat followed. December Chicago gained 3 cents to 529, Kansas City was up 6 at 538, and MIAX closed 1-1/2 higher at 561-3/4.

  • Southern areas of Argentina saw temperatures dip below freezing this morning. This may have caused some wheat crop damage and should be watched closely. Current FOB wheat offers out of Argentina are reportedly about $27/mt below U.S. HRW wheat at the gulf. This is the equivalent of roughly 73 cents per bushel.

  • A Reuters analyst survey suggests that the U.S. winter wheat crop is 85% planted, which would be above last year’s pace of 80%. Additionally, 50% of the crop is believed to be in good to excellent condition, well above the 38% figure from a year ago.

  • Speculative traders are estimated to have purchased about 5,500 contracts of Chicago wheat yesterday, bringing their net short position below 90,000 contracts. Open interest also dropped by about 6,000 contracts, which suggests that there was a healthy amount of short covering going on.

  • Continued rainfall has disrupted and delayed wheat harvest in southern Brazil, especially in Parana. According to CONAB, about 38% of the nation’s wheat crop has been harvested so far. Domestic wheat prices in Brazil have fallen despite the slow harvest, largely due to high ending stocks and competitive imports.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Notes:

        • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 futures close above 669 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

      • A Plan B call option target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 669 vs July 2026. A close above 669 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 591.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 591.75.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 591.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 591.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 closes at or above 648.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:
      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 591.75 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 591.75.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 591.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 591.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 KC wheat closes at or above 648.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day temperature outlook courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: South America 7-day temperature outlook courtesy of National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-27 End of Day:  Grains Ride U.S. – China Trade Optimism Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed higher after finding spillover strength from soybeans and wheat but met strong selling pressure near 430.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures showed signs of strength following the announcement of a potential trade deal framework being achieved.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures pressed higher as the market continues to take an optimistic stance on foreign trade relations.

  • To see the updated U.S. and South American weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

  • The release of new commitment of traders data has been delayed as a result of the government shutdown. Updated figures will be issued following the resumption of government operations.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December 2026 futures close above 483 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been raised from 482 to 483.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 483 vs December 2026. A close above 483 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Trade optimism, a strong wheat market and export inspections helped support corn futures higher to start the week. December corn gained 5 ½ cent to 428 ¾, while March added 7 ¼ to 444 ¼.

  • The market strength likely triggered some producer selling of corn, which pressured the December spreads and limited gains in the December futures at 430 price level.

  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that the U.S. and China have reached an initial framework to a trade deal over the weekend. This triggered market optimism on the soybean and wheat markets, helping pull corn futures higher. Details are still very limited in a potential deal.

  • The weekly Export Inspection report was friendly to the corn market as U.S. exporters shipped 1.188MMT (46.7 mb) of corn last week. This total was near the bottom of expectations. Current corn export shipments are strong, running 58% ahead of last year at 414.7 mb.

  • Mississippi River water levels remain low, limiting transport and increasing the cost to move bushels to the Gulf for export. Those additional costs could have a negative impact on the cash market.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if January 2026 futures close above 1175 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B call option target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1175 vs January 2026. A close above 1175 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if November 2026 futures close above 1161 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans extended gains on Monday, with strength seen across the soy complex. The market held firm throughout the session, supported by optimism over reports of a U.S.–China framework deal announced by Treasury Secretary Bessent. November soybeans ended Monday’s session up 25 ½ cents to close at 10.67 ¼, while January soybeans gained 24 ¾ cents to close at 10.85.

  • Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that China is expected to resume “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans, with the planned 100% tariff for November 1st reportedly withdrawn. The Phase 1 compliance review announced last week also appears likely to be shelved. This development improves sentiment around U.S. export prospects, suggesting a possible window for renewed Chinese buying before Brazil’s harvest begins in late January.

  • As of Sunday, the U.S. soybean harvest is estimated at 83% complete, running ahead of the five-year average. In the absence of updated USDA data, this remains an unofficial estimate. Meanwhile, the U.S. Soy Transportation Coalition reported that persistently low Mississippi River levels are slowing barge movement and driving up freight costs to the Gulf amid peak harvest activity.

  • Weekly soybean export inspections totaled 1.061 MMT, reflecting continued seasonal softness and leaving year-to-date volumes down 37% from last year’s pace.

  • IMEA pegged Mato Grosso planting at 60% complete, slightly above the 57% average, while Argentina’s midterm elections saw a win for Milei’s libertarian party. AgRural meanwhile estimated Brazilian soybean planting at 36% as of late last week, roughly in line with last year’s pace.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with double-digit gains across the board for Chicago and Kansas City futures, with some contracts leaving small gaps on the charts. Meanwhile, Minneapolis futures posted less impressive gains. December Chicago was up 13-1/2 cents to close at 526, Kansas City gained 12-3/4 to 514-1/4, and MIAX closed 3-1/4 higher at 560-1/4. Wheat was largely pulled higher by soybeans, which themselves were up sharply due to optimism that the U.S. and China are close to a trade deal. Also supportive to the U.S. wheat market was the sharply higher close for MATIF wheat, and trade deals announced with Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand.

  • Weekly wheat inspections amounted to 9.5 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 421.2 mb, which is up 19% from last year. Inspections are running above the USDA’s estimate pace; total 25/26 exports are forecasted at 900 mb, up 9% from the year prior.

  • Argentina has cold temperatures in their forecast, with the potential for frost or freezing conditions on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. Traders will be watching, as this could potentially cause damage to their wheat crop. Currently, their wheat crop is rated 88% good to excellent, well above the 38% rating a year ago.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $230.50/mt. This is down 50 cents from the week before. In addition, IKAR raised their estimate of Russia’s October wheat exports by 0.5 mmt to 5.5 mmt. Nevertheless, SovEcon kept their October estimate steady at 5.1 mmt.

  • Russia’s agriculture ministry has confirmed their estimate of 50 mmt of grain exports for this season (July ’25 to June ’26). For reference, Russia shipped 53 mmt of grain last season, with wheat accounting for 44 mmt of that total.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Notes:

        • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 futures close above 669 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

      • A Plan B call option target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 669 vs July 2026. A close above 669 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 610 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 610.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 610 vs December ‘25. A close above 610 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 closes at or above 648.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:
      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 610 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 610.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 610 vs December ‘25. A close above 610 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 KC wheat closes at or above 648.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: South America 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-24 End of Day:  Grains Post Weekly Gains Ahead of Key U.S. – China Trade Talks

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended lower on Friday, pressured by profit-taking and November option expiration.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended the week lower as traders took profits ahead of the weekend, with focus shifting to U.S.–China trade negotiations while harvest nears completion.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended mixed on Friday but held up better than corn and soybeans. Strength in the broader stock market may have provided some spillover support, as CPI data showed consumer prices rising slightly less than expected.

  • To see the updated U.S. and South American weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw the end of the week profit taking and pressure from the November option expiration to close the week with light to moderate losses. December corn lost 4 ¾ cents to close at 423 ¼, while March corn fell 4 ¼ cents to 437. For the week, December corn traded ¾ cents higher.

  • Planting pace for the 2025-26 Argentina corn crop is off to a good start. Corn planting is projected to be 30% complete vs. 26% last week, 24% last year. The 5-year average is 26% for this time period.

  • The December corn spread sold were trading lower on the session. The spread has been helping the corn market work higher, but failing to push through resistance and possible increase in farmer selling likely triggered the pressure in the December contract.

  • Weather outlooks remain favorable into November, supporting steady harvest progress as producers move into the final stages of corn and soybean harvest.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures saw profit taking to end the week as the market is focused on trade negotiations between the US and China as US harvest is in the final stages. November soybeans lost 3 cents to 1041 ¾, while January soybeans sipped 1 ¾ cents to 1060 ¼. For the week, November soybeans gained 22 ¼ cents.

  • The November soybean options expired on Friday, and option expirations tend to bring additional volatility as prices move toward the areas of largest open interest for puts and calls, and that strike was the 1040 level for November soybeans.

  • Recent gains in U.S. soybean prices have narrowed the gap with Brazilian export offers, potentially erasing the competitive advantage U.S. beans had in global trade. This comes as traders await progress on trade discussions between the U.S. and China.

  • Markets will closely watch the U.S.–China trade talks taking place in Malaysia this weekend, with Presidents Trump and Xi scheduled to meet on Tuesday.

  • Brazil ag agency, CONAB, is forecasting another record harvest for Brazil production for the 2025-26 soybean crop. Soybean planting is in the early stages, but CONAB is expecting the planted area to grow 3.5% over last year to an equivalent of 121 million acres.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures ended mixed on Friday but held up better than corn and soybeans. Strength in the broader stock market may have provided some spillover support, as CPI data showed consumer prices rising slightly less than expected. The Dow was up more than 550 points at midday. December Chicago wheat slipped ½ cent to 512 ½, Kansas City gained 1 ½ cents to 501 ½, and Minneapolis lost 1 cent to 557.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat crop has been 5.3% harvested so far. Early yield results are also said to be terrific. Nevertheless, the BAGE kept their estimate of the country’s crop unchanged at 22 mmt – this would still be 18% above last year. This compares with estimates from the Rosario Grain Exchange at 23 mmt and the USDA at 19.5 mmt.

  • Managed funds were estimated to have purchased 4,000 contracts of Chicago wheat yesterday, which would reduce their net short position to an estimated 93,000 contracts. Furthermore, open interest declined by about 2,000 contracts which would suggest short covering played a role in yesterday’s trade.

  • The Turkish wheat crop harvest for 2025 is expected to fall 13.9% year over year to 17.9 mmt. This estimate comes from TurkStat and is part of a broader trend of declining crop production for the nation.

  • FranceAgriMer has reported that the French soft wheat crop has been 57% planted as of Monday. This is a big jump of 30% over the week before. The current pace is also well above the 20% planted at this time a year ago and the five-year average pace of 43%.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.25.

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 futures close above 669 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

      • A Plan B call option target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 669 vs July 2026. A close above 669 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 610.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 610.50.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 610.50 vs December ‘25. A close above 612.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 closes at or above 648.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:
      • A Plan B call target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 612.50 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 612.50.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 612.50 vs December ‘25. A close above 612.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 KC wheat closes at or above 648.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B call target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

From ag-wx.com

From ag-wx.com

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10-23 End of Day:  Grain Futures End Higher Amid Signs of Trade Progress with China

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended the day modestly higher on continued strength from the weekly ethanol report and renewed trade optimism with China.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: News that President Trump will meet with China’s President Xi Jinping next Thursday to discuss a deal pushed soybean futures sharply higher.

  • 🌾 Wheat: The wheat markets showed strength today, fueled mostly by technical buying as traders continued to face a lack of fresh fundamental news. Prices ultimately closed higher on the day.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.  

  • The release of new export data has been delayed as a result of the government shutdown. Updated figures will be issued following the resumption of government operations.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished Thursday with moderate gains, supported by trade optimism with China and a strong weekly ethanol report. December corn posted its highest daily close since September 15, gaining 5 cents to 428. March futures added 5 ½ cents to 441 ¼.

  • Confirmation by the White House that President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi next Thursday helped boost market optimism on Thursday.

  • Wednesday’s ethanol production reported show strong ethanol production for the second straight week. For the week ending October 12, ethanol production reached 327 million gallons on the week, above expectation and marketing year high.

  • Corn futures pushed through a key area of technical resistance, which triggered some short covering during the session on Thursday. A strong technical close leaves the corn market set up for additional upside support going into Friday.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher following news that President Trump will meet with China’s Xi next Thursday to discuss a trade deal. November soybeans were up 10 cents to $10.44-3/4 while March was up 12-1/4 to $10.75-1/4. December soybean meal was up $2.30 to $292.30 and December soybean oil gained 0.80 cents to 50.87 cents following gains in crude oil.

  • President Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping next Thursday in a bilateral meeting that will be part of a multi-country trip to Asia, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a briefing today.  On the Asian trip, Trump will also be meeting with leaders from Malaysia, Japan and Korea.

  • Bloomberg estimates for the postponed export sales report for the week ending October 16 see soybean sales in a range between 700k and 2,000k tons with an average guess of 1,200k tons. This would compare to 2,088k last year. An unfounded rumor circulated today suggesting that China may have booked U.S. soybeans.

  • In South America, weather has remained unusually dry throughout central Brazil this month which has led to a quickened planting pace for soybeans. The forecast for the next 7 days remains dry with potential showers expected in two weeks from now.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with strength today, led by the Kansas City class. Dec Chi closed 9-1/4 cents higher at 513, KC was up 11-1/2 to 500, and MIAX gained 10-1/4 to 558. Today’s move appears to be largely technical in nature with speculative short covering. Wheat futures likely followed soybeans and crude oil higher after the U.S. announced new sanctions against two major Russian oil companies.

  • The International Grains Council has increased their estimate of world 25/26 wheat production by 8 mmt to 827 mmt. If realized, this would be a record high, up 1.1% compared to the previous season, and compares with the USDA estimate of 816.2 mmt. This revision was primarily driven by higher projections for Russian, U.S., and Argentine crops.

  • Algeria recently purchased milling wheat, however the amount may be far larger than the 50,000 mt tender. Reportedly, volumes could be as high as 500-600,000 mt, and the wheat was likely sourced from the Black Sea area. The purchase price is said to be around $259/mt on a CNF basis.

  • As of October 21, an estimated 43% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, down from 45% last week. Spring wheat areas in drought were unchanged from last week at 16%.

  • Due to the government shutdown, there was no export sales report today. However, a Bloomberg analyst survey suggests an average estimate of 563,000 mt of wheat export sales. The estimates ranged from 350-750,000 mt and compared to 533,000 mt from a year ago.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.25.

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 futures close above 669 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

      • A Plan B call option target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 669 vs July 2026. A close above 669 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 612.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 612.50.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 612.50 vs December ‘25. A close above 612.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 closes at or above 648.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:
      • A Plan B call target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 612.50 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 612.50.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 612.50 vs December ‘25. A close above 612.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 KC wheat closes at or above 648.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B call target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

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10-22 End of Day: Grain Markets Mixed as Corn Strengthens, Soybeans Steady, and Wheat Rebounds on Technical Buying

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures finished higher on Wednesday as buying strength lifted the front end of the market. Strong export demand and limited farmer selling continue to support the nearby contracts.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended mixed Wednesday, with strength in nearby contracts but weakness in deferred months.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed higher across all three U.S. classes Wednesday, largely on technical buying amid a lack of fresh news.

  • To see updated U.S. and South America weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

  • The release of new crop progress data has been delayed as a result of the government shutdown. Updated figures will be issued following the resumption of government operations.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished higher on Wednesday as buying strength helped pull the front end of the corn market higher. December corn finished 3 ¼ cents higher to 423, and March futures gained 2 cents to 435 ¾.

  • Bull spreading remain a driver in the front end of the corn price as the Dec/March corn spread gained 1 ¼ cents to finish at –12 ½. This is the narrowest spread the has traded since April. The strong tone of demand in the export market and the lack of farmer selling is what is supporting the strength in the spread.

  • Thursday morning typically has export sales report released, but with the government shut down, that report is still going unreported. Analysts have given projections for corn sales with a range of 800,000 mt-2.0 MMT. The market has expected corn export demand to remain strong.

  • Restriction of barge flow on the Mississippi River due to low water levels can increase costs of transportation to the Gulf. Those increased costs will likely be reflected in basis levels along the river for cash prices.

  • After three straight sessions of gains, the U.S. Dollar Index encountered technical resistance on Wednesday, potentially signaling a near-term shift in momentum.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed today with gains in the front months but losses in deferred contracts. November soybeans gained 4 cents to $10.34-3/4 while March gained ¼ cent to $10.63 and November 2026 lost 2 cents to $10.70-3/4. December soybean meal gained $3.10 to $290 and December soybean oil lost 0.58 cents to 50.07 cents.

  • Back-month pressure stemmed from President Trump’s comments that the U.S. may consider curbs on exports to China involving U.S.-made software — from jets to laptops — in retaliation for Beijing’s latest rare earth export restrictions. The escalation could complicate near-term trade negotiations.

  • Early next week, Trump is set to meet with Japan’s new Prime Minister Takaichi where they will discuss potential U.S. investments. Takaichi will discuss purchases of US soybeans, pickups, and gasoline, and may invest as much as $550 billion in the US in exchange for lower auto tariffs.

  • The U.S. soybean harvest is estimated by Bloomberg polls to be 74% complete with a range between 61-80%. This would compare to last week’s survey guess of 60% and would compare to 81% from the USDA at this time a year ago.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with gains in all three U.S. futures classes today. Without much in the way of fresh news to drive the market, this was likely a technical move higher. Dec Chi was up 3-1/2 cents at 503-3/4, KC gained 3-1/2 cents to 488-1/2, and MIAX closed 3 cents higher at 547-3/4.  

  • Argentine wheat is reportedly at a significant discount to the US. Their FOB values are said to be near $208 to $210 per mt, which is about $16 to $18 below HRW offers at the US Gulf. This will likely limit upside for the US market. Furthermore, Argentina’s wheat harvest is set to begin in November, with a potential record 23 mmt crop anticipated.

  • U.S. winter wheat planting is estimated to be more than 75% complete, though progress could slow as a storm system brings rain across the Southern Plains Thursday, with lighter showers expected in the Great Lakes region.

  • Northern China has recently seen excess heavy rain. This is not only affecting harvest progress and quality of spring-sown crops but is also causing concern about winter wheat planting. Their winter wheat planting typically begins in October. According to China’s national climate center, the northern provinces of Henan and Shandong have had the rainiest season in 60 years.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.25.

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 618 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 618.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 618 vs December ‘25. A close above 618 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 closes at or above 648.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:
      • A Plan B call target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 618 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 618.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 KC wheat closes at or above 648.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B call target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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10-21 End of Day: Grains Slip Following Mixed Trade Rhetoric

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures failed to break overhead resistance and closed lower on the day, pressured by strength in the dollar and spillover weakness from gold.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans slid lower following mixed rhetoric about the ongoing trade tensions with China.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures slipped as strength in the U.S. dollar and spillover weakness from corn and soybeans weighed on the market.

  • To see updated U.S. and South America weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

  • The release of new crop progress data has been delayed as a result of the government shutdown. Updated figures will be issued following the resumption of government operations.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure hit the corn market on Tuesday as failing to push through resistance triggered some long liquidation. A firmer U.S. dollar and a drop in gold futures also triggered some selling on the session. December corn lost 3 ½ cents to 419 ¾, and March lost 3 ¼ cents to 433 ¾.

  • Two out of the past three sessions, corn futures reversed at the 425 price area and traded lower off that price point. The 425 price could be triggering some farmer selling. The weak technical closes could open the corn market to some additional selling going into tomorrow’s session.

  • The U.S. dollar has traded higher for the past three sessions, pressuring corn and wheat prices on Tuesday.

  • The corn market stays supported by yield variability. With information limited, yield reports have supported the market regarding the size of the corn crop. The impact of late dry weather and disease pressure is still unknown in the corn market.

  • The talk that the government shutdown could see resolution this week could be either positive or negative to the corn market. The start of flowing government information will shed light on harvest progress and demand for the corn market, which has been missing since the shutdown began.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly lower in quiet trade amid mixed comments by President Trump regarding a meeting with China’s Xi. November soybeans lost 1 cent to $10.30-3/4, while March lost 1-1/4 cents to $10.62-3/4. December soybean meal gained $1.90 to $286.90 and December soybean oil lost 0.66 cents to 50.65 cents despite small gains in crude.

  • This week there has been a significant amount of talk by the administration of getting a trade deal ironed out with China. Yesterday, President Trump said they would attempt to close a deal by November 1 or risk increasing tariffs on Chinese goods, but today he said that the meeting with President Xi may not happen.

  • The U.S. soybean harvest is estimated by Bloomberg polls to be 74% complete with a range between 61-80%. This would compare to last week’s survey guess of 60% and would compare to 81% from the USDA at this time a year ago.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections saw soybean inspections at 1,474k tons which compares to 1,017k last week and 2,550k tons a year ago at this time. Export inspections are down 42.2% from a year ago. Top destinations were Mexico, Bangladesh, and Pakistan.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across all three classes, pressured by the lower corn and soybean trade, a rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index, and a lower close for MATIF wheat futures. December Chi lost 4-1/2 cents to 500-1/4, KC was down 5 cents at 485, and MIAX finished the session 3-3/4 cents lower at 544-3/4.

  • IKAR has once again increased their estimate of Russian wheat production, this time by 0.5 mmt to 88 mmt. The last USDA estimate in September had the crop pegged at 85 mmt.

  • According to their agriculture ministry, Ukraine’s winter wheat crop is 72% planted. And despite the lack of data due to the government shutdown, U.S. winter wheat is believed to be being planted at a similar pace. A poll from Reuters suggests that U.S. plantings are 75% complete, while a Bloomberg survey indicates the crop is 76% planted.

  • Over the past week, it was warm and mostly dry across Argentina. Over the next five days, above-normal temperatures are expected in central and northern regions, before cooler temperatures arrive next week. Additionally, above-normal rainfall is expected in the Pampas and northeast region. If the moisture persists, it could cause some concerns for the growth and quality of the wheat crop.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.25.

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 628.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sales target has been lowered from 565 to 563.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 617.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 628.75 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day temperature courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: South America 7-day temperature outlook courtesy of National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

10-20 End of Day: Grains Led Higher by Soybean Strength

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures inched higher as export inspections continue to be strong.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans led grains higher as optimism continues to grow that a trade deal with China can be reached.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed mixed, with pressure from strong foreign production continuing to weigh on the market.

  • To see updated U.S. and South America weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

  • The release of new commitment of traders data has been delayed as a result of the government shutdown. Updated figures will be issued following the resumption of government operations.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures fought off early session weakness to finish with small gains to start the week. A quiet day overall with December corn trading a 4 ½ trading range. A strong week of export sales and strength in the soybean market provided support.

  • Weekly export inspections remain strong for corn.  For the week ending October 16, US exporters shipped 1.317 MMT (51.9 mb) of corn. For the marketing, total inspections have reached 368 mb, up 61% over last year.

  • Corn harvest is projected to be past the halfway point.  Analysts estimate the corn harvest is nearing 59% complete, up 15% over last week’s estimates. With the government shutdown, Crop Progress report is still in pause on Monday afternoons.

  • Optimism for a possible trade deal with China is helped support the grain markets. President Trump made comments on Monday that he is hopeful a deal could come together by the end of the month.

  • A lack of farmers selling or disappointing yields is supporting the cash market for corn. Areas have seen basis improvement, supporting cash.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly higher for the third consecutive day thanks to optimism that President Trump will strike a trade deal with China. November soybeans gained 12-1/4 cents to $10.31-3/4 while March was up 13-1/4 to $10.64. December soybean meal was up $4.00 to $285 while December bean oil was up 0.18 cents to 51.31 cents.

  • Today, President Trump made comments on China saying that China could pay a 155% tariff on US goods if no deal is reached by November 1, that China has been “very respectful” to the US, and that he expects to work out a “fair deal” with President Xi. In addition, China said it would reimburse tariff costs for soybeans bought for state reserves from the US.

  • Today’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections totaling 54.2 million bushels for the week ending October 16. Total inspections for 25/26 are now at 204 mb, which is down 31% from the previous year. Exports are expected to be down 10% this year from the previous year.

  • Over the past 5 trading days funds are estimated to have bought back 17,500 contracts of soybeans which may have brought them back to a small net long position. They were likely buyers of both soybean meal and oil. Funds likely added to that long position today.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a mixed close after a two-sided trade. December Chi gained 1 cent to 504-3/4, KC lost 1-1/2 cents to 490, and MIAX was unchanged at 548-1/2. In general, the wheat market continues to trudge along near the lows without much reason to rally – large crops expected out of Argentina and Australia may further limit upside potential.

  • Weekly wheat inspections were pegged at 17.7 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 411.0 mb. This is up 20% from the year prior and inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace. Exports for 25/26 are forecasted at 900 mb, up 9% from last year.

  • One unidentified grain analyst in Australia increased the estimate of their nation’s wheat production by 0.5 mmt to 35.7 mmt. If this new estimate is accurate, it would become the third largest crop on record. Compared to the USDA projection of 34.5 mmt.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $231/mt, which is up $2 from the week before. Additionally, SovEcon has increased their estimate of Russian October wheat exports slightly to 5.1 mmt; this compares with 4.6 mmt in September.

  • Chinese customs data indicates that their wheat and wheat flour imports for the month of September totaled 390,000 mt, which is up about 60% year over year. However, year to date total imports have reached only 2.99 mmt, which is down about 72% year over year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.25.

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 628.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sales target has been lowered from 565 to 563.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 617.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 628.75 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: South America 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

10-17 End of Day: Grains Close Week Higher on Market Strength Amid U.S.-China Optimism

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn closed the week modestly higher, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains on optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade talks.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans wrapped up the week with gains across the entire soy complex, fueled by hopes that upcoming U.S.-China talks could lead to a resolution in the ongoing trade dispute.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Friday’s wheat trade ended positive, fueled by strength in other grains and potential weather concerns in Argentina.

  • To see the updated U.S. and global weather maps, scroll to the bottom.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished higher for the fourth consecutive session, closing with moderate gains. December contracts drew support from strength in other grains and tested resistance levels, but end-of-week profit-taking limited further upside. December corn gained ¾ cent to 422 ½, and March added 1 cent to 436 ½. For the week, December corn finished 9 ½ cents higher.

  • A more positive tone on U.S.-China trade provided support to the soybean market on Friday, while spillover strength offered some optimism for corn.

  • With harvest pushing the 50% level nationally, the lack of producers selling has helped support the market. Corn spreads between the front of the market versus deferred futures have been tightening as end users are trying to encourage movement of corn.

  • The market will be shifting focus to South American weather as Brazil and Argentina are starting corn planting. Rain has fallen in key areas of the two countries, which should help promote a good start to their next year’s corn crops.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the second consecutive day after President Trump said that 100% tariffs on China were not sustainable and said he would in fact meet with China’s President Xi. November soybeans gained 8-3/4 cents to $10.19-1/2 and March gained 7 cents to $10.50-3/4. December soybean meal gained $4.10 to $281 and December bean oil gained 0.26 cents to 51.13 cents.

  • USDA export sales reports are paused indefinitely but estimates for the export sales report ending the week of October 9 see soybean sales in a range between 400k and 1,400k tons with an average estimate of 975k tons. This would compare to 1,703k a year ago.

  • Market talk indicates that China may auction 3.5 million tons of soybeans from state reserves, opting to rely on domestic stocks instead of buying Brazil’s higher-priced supplies. However, with President Trump expected to meet with President Xi in the upcoming weeks and a phone call planned soon, renewed trade discussions could set the stage for potential progress toward a deal.

  • For the week, November soybeans gained 12-3/4 cents taking back all over last week’s losses and then some while March gained 13-1/4 cents. December soybean meal gained $6.00 for the week while December bean oil gained 1.16 cents.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with small gains in Chicago and Kansas City futures, but small losses for Minneapolis. December Chi was up 1-1/4 cents at 503-3/4, KC gained 2-3/4 to 491-1/2, and MIAX lost 1 cent to 548-1/2. Wheat remains a follower, trading near contract lows. Despite being oversold, a lack of fresh news has limited any short-covering rally.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, a cold front coming in next week could threaten Argentina’s wheat crop, which is currently rated 90% good to excellent. Harvest is expected to start next month; the BAGE has kept their production forecast unchanged at 22 mmt. This compares with the USDA estimate at 19.5 mmt and the Rosario Grain Exchange at 23 mmt.

  • The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia has raised its estimate for the region’s wheat production by 8.6% to 12.6 mmt, which would set a record if realized. Total grain production in Western Australia could reach 25.5 mmt, just shy of the 2022 record of 26 mmt.

  • Ukrainian grain exports so far this season are down 37% year over year at 7.9 mmt, according to their agriculture ministry. Of that total, wheat accounts for 5.6 mmt, which would be down 21% year over year.

  • According to FranceAgriMer, the French soft wheat crop has been 27% planted as of Monday, an increase of 5% from the week prior. This is above last year’s pace by about 10% and compares with the five-year average of 22%.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.25.

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 628.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sales target has been lowered from 565 to 563.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 617.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 628.75 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

|

10-16 End of Day: Corn, Soybeans Advance; Wheat Closes Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Thursday’s corn session ended higher for the third consecutive day, supported by news regarding China.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed higher across the entire soy complex, supported by bullish NOPA crush data released yesterday.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat finished mixed, with some downward pressure stemming from a weaker MATIF wheat close.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

  • The release of new export data has been delayed as a result of the government shutdown. Updated figures will be issued following the resumption of government operations.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished higher for the third consecutive session on Thursday. Technical buying, along with talk of an extension to China’s tariff exemption deadline, helped push prices to test resistance levels above the market. December futures gained 5 cents to 421 ¾ and March added 3 ¼ to 435 ½.

  • Corn futures rallied to resistance just over the 420 level, which held upward momentum for the session. Friday and Monday trade may be key to price action if the market sees additional technical buying strength.

  • Grain markets found buying support on talk of an extension to China’s tariff relief deadline. Rhetoric has intensified this week, with a mix of both optimistic and cautious commentary as the meeting between President Trump and President Xi approaches at the end of the month.

  • Daily ethanol production for the week ending October 10 averaged 1.074 million barrels. This was a new high daily production for that week of the year. A total of 107 MB of corn was used in the production process, which is just below the total needed to reach the USDA market year target

  • Corn harvest pressure may continue to act as a limiting factor for the market. Producers are moving into the final two-thirds of harvest, and a steady flow of fresh bushels is making its way into the pipeline.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher thanks to bullish NOPA crush data yesterday but backed off from highs earlier in the day. November soybeans gained 4-1/4 cents to $10.10-3/4 while March gained 4 cents to $10.43-3/4. December soybean meal was up $1.00 to $276.90 and December soybean oil was up 0.07 cents to 50.87 cents.

  • The NOPA crush report for September showed U.S. soybean crush topping estimates at 197.86 million bushels, which was up 4.2% from August and up 11.6% from September last year. Domestic demand is encouraging, given Chinese absence.

  • Today, Secretary Rollins made multiple announcements regarding the ag sector and soybeans. She said that the U.S. was in talks with some South American nations over the possibility of crushing U.S. and other soybeans in South America. She also said that the U.S. was not waiting to reach a trade deal with China and would open up markets to other countries.

  • China has held off on large purchases of Brazilian soybeans for December and January delivery as a result of high Brazilian premiums. China still needs roughly 9 mmt of soybeans and could tap into state reserves to meet short-term needs.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a mixed close today; while Chicago finished higher, Kansas City settled on both sides of neutral, and Minneapolis MIAX futures posted small losses. December Chi gained 3-3/4 cents to 502-1/2, KC was up 1/2 cent at 488-3/4, and MIAX lost 1-1/2 cents to close at 549-1/2. Some pressure may have stemmed from a lower close for MATIF wheat futures; some contracts of which made new lows this session

  • Globally, Algeria is reported to have purchased about 400,000 mt of durum wheat, paying between $324-$334/mt on a CNF basis. Egypt has also reportedly bought two cargoes of wheat from France, paying $240/mt on a FOB basis. Additionally, there is talk that Egypt may be seeking Black Sea wheat too.

  • According to their Agriculture minister, Russia has harvested about 132 mmt of grain so far during the 25/26 season. Russia has kept their total grain harvest estimate steady at 135 mmt, of which wheat would account for 90 mmt. Additionally, grain exports this season are projected at 50 mmt.

  • Australia is set to see an increase in rainfall for the second half of this month. This should be beneficial for development of their wheat crop. Western Australia could remain drier than normal, but this is not currently a major concern for the crop.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.25.

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 628.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sales target has been lowered from 565 to 563.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 617.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 628.75 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center