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9-12 End of Day: Grains Finish Higher Following September WADSE Release

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures continued higher Friday following reduced ending stocks projections in the WASDE report.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans futures finished higher Friday, supported by WASDE projections and export shipments to China.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures finished with minimal gains despite the WASDE report reducing ending stocks.

  • To see the updated U.S. 6-10 day Temperature outlook as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell one-quarter of your December 420 puts today.

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • One-quarter of your 420 puts should be exited to lighten the position in case upside momentum continues through September. The remaining three-quarters should remain to continue providing downside protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A positive reaction to the USDA Crop Production report helped push the corn to strong gains on Friday’s session. December corn gains 10 ¼ cents to close at 430, and March corn added 10 cents to 447 ¼. Friday’s close was the highest close on Dec corn since July 18. September corn closed its trading life today, settled at 399 on final trades.

  • The USDA released the September WASDE on Friday afternoon. The USDA increased planted acres by 1.5 million acres to 98.7 million acres and also lifted the harvested total to 90 million acres. The acre adjustment was a surprise to the market for the second straight month after adding 2.5 million acres on the August report.

  • The yield projection was being closely watched as dry weather has limited the finish on this year’s corn crop.  The USDA lowered the yield forecast by 2.0 bu/a to 186.7 bu/a., down from 188.7 in the August report.

  • With the combination of increased acres, but reduced yield, the USDA calculated total production at 16.814 billion bushels, up 73 million from last month. The USDA raised corn exports by 100 mb for the marketing year. The carryout projection for 2025-26 was lowered by 7 mb to 2.110 BB, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.1%,

  • Ending stocks above 2.0 billion are considered heavy, but buyers stepped into the market believing that the yield projection will continue to decrease. With the current demand strength, the carryout number could trend lower in reports down the road, which is friendly to the corn market.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher in volatile trade and in defiance of a relatively bearish WASDE report. November soybeans gained 12-3/4 cents to $10.46-1/4 while March gained 12-1/4 cents to $10.80-1/4. October soybean meal was up $1.50 to $287.60 and October soybean oil gained 0.59 cents to 51.67 cents.

  • Today’s WASDE report was bearish with yield estimates revised slightly lower to 53.5 bpa but was above the average trade guess of 53.3 bpa. Soybean planted acreage was revised higher by 200,000 acres and export demand was revised slightly lower. Ending stocks for 25/26 were estimated at 300 mb, which was up from last month’s guess of 290 mb.

  • This morning, private exporters reported sales of 22,000 metric tons of soybean oil for delivery to South Korea during the 2025/2026 marketing year.

  • China has booked nearly all of its October soybean needs and about 15% of November with higher-priced Brazilian supplies. If a U.S.-China trade deal emerges soon, their purchases of U.S. soybeans could be delayed, creating potential logistical bottlenecks domestically.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was able to bounce back from early struggles to finish higher on the day. KC led the way higher, with the December contract up 3-1/4 to $5.13-¼, Chicago was 00-1/2 higher to $5.21-3/4, MIAX closed 00-1/4 to $5.71-3/4.

  • Today’s WASDE report showed US wheat supplies unchanged while exports were higher and ending stocks were lowered. Exports increased 25 mb to 900 mb while ending stocks were lowered by 25 mb to 844 mb.

  • World wheat supplies were up 9 mt to 1,078.6 mt due to increased production estimates globally. Russia’s wheat production was bumped 1.9 mt higher to 140.1 mt based on harvest results. Increased global production could put some downside pressure on domestic wheat prices.

  • Conab cut their Brazilian wheat production forecast to 7.54 mmt, down from the groups previous estimate of 7.81 mmt.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 602.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 602.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 590 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 642 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 6 to 10-day temperate outlook courtesy of NOAA.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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9-12 Midday: Corn and Soybeans Higher Ahead of WASDE, Wheat Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn prices are continuing to see some short covering going into this morning’s WASDE report. December corn is trading 5-00 higher to $4.24-3/4.

  • Expectations for today’s WASDE report are to show both corn yield and ending stocks being cut. This has led to some support in prices for the past few days.

  • Brazil has increased their corn production estimate for the 2024/25 season to 139.67 mmt compared to a previous estimate of 137 mmt.

  • Soybeans are finding strength at midday as expectations in today’s report are to show yield and ending stocks lower than previously reported. November soybeans are 10-1/2 higher to $10.43-3/4.

  • Conab has raised their soybean production estimate in Brazil by 1.82 mmt from last month to 171.47 mmt.

  • NOPA soybean cruch for August is estimated to reach 182.857 mb. If realized, crush for August would be down 6.6% from July but up nearly 16% from August of last year.

  • Wheat prices are cooling off at midday as the market awaits what is expected to be a somewhat neutral report. December Chicago futures are 1-3/4 lower to $5.19-3/4.

  • Conab has cut their wheat production forecast for Brazil to 7.54 mmt. This is down from the groups previous estimate of 7.81 mmt.

  • Wheat exports continue to outpace last year’s numbers. However, cheap Black Sea supplies are causing some competition as the world’s top wheat buyer, Egypt, has been a recent buyer of Russia, Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgarian supplies.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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9-12 Opening Update: Grains Trading Unchanged to Slightly Higher Ahead of USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is trading very quietly to start the day ahead of the supply and demand report sat 11am. December corn is up 1 cent at $4.20-1/2 while March is up 1-1/4 to $4.38-1/2.

  • Trade estimates for Today’s report peg U.S. 2024/25 corn carryout at 1.311 billion bu (vs USDA’s 1.305) and 2025/26 at 2.011 billion bu (vs USDA’s 2.117), with crop size seen at 16.516 billion bu, below the USDA’s August estimate of 16.742.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw corn sales increase 21.3 million bushels for 25/26 and none for 26/27. Last week’s export shipments to 27.1 mb were below the 55.3 mb needed. Top buyers were to Mexico, Japan, and unknown.

Corn Futures Consolidate: December corn futures continue to consolidate as traders await the monthly WASDE report on September 12. Prices are currently supported by the 50-day moving average. Technical resistance can be found near 430 through both the 100-day moving average and the July 7 price gap.

  • Soybeans are unchanged to slightly higher with the November contract up 3/4 cent to $10.34-1/4 while March is up 1/4 cent to $10.68-1/4. October soybean meal is down $1.20 to $284.90 and October soybean oil is up 0.35 cents to 51.43 cents.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw an increase of 19.9 mb for the 25/26 marketing year and none for 26/27. Top buyers were unknown, Taiwan, and Indonesia. Last week’s shipments of 8.6 mb were well below the 32.8 mb needed.

  • Trade estimates for today’s report slightly undercut USDA figures, with U.S. 2024/25 soybean carryout seen at 328 million bu (vs USDA 330), 2025/26 at 288 million bu (vs USDA 290), and production at 4.271 billion bu (vs USDA 4.292).

Soybeans Hold at Support: Early August strength followed USDA’s 2.5 million acre cut to 2025 harvested area, propelling futures through major resistance and key moving averages near 10.30, now acting as support. On the upside, the 10.80 spring highs remain the next major technical hurdle, a level that has consistently capped rallies over the past year.

  • All three wheat classes are weaker this morning with December Chicago wheat down 1 cent to $5.20-1/2 and December KC wheat down 3/4 cents to $5.09-1/4.

  • Trade estimates for today’s report put 2025/26 U.S. wheat carryout at 865 million bu (vs USDA 869) and global ending stocks at 261.1 mmt (vs USDA 260.1).

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw wheat sales with an increase of 11.2 mb for the 25/26 marketing year. Top buyers were Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

Chicago Wheat Range Bound: Wheat futures have remained relatively range bound between 519 and 534 following the August low and contract rollover. The first point of technical resistance is near 532 at the 50-day moving average.

KC Wheat Trends Sideways, Tests Lows: June’s rally briefly tested April highs near 580 before fading into month-end. The pullback left futures trading below the 50-day moving average, now key resistance on any rebound. Support is firm at the recent lows near 505, with secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Tests Support: Futures remain rangebound as harvest advances, holding early August lows near 580 support. On the upside, strong resistance sits just above 600 at clustered moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum builds.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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9-11 End of Day: Short Covering Leads Grains Higher Ahead of WASDE Report Friday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures finished higher Thursday, supported by firm export demand ahead of Friday’s WASDE.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans rallied off support Thursday, closing higher ahead of Friday’s WASDE.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed higher Thursday, supported by export commitments running ahead of last year’s pace.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell one-quarter of your December 420 puts today.

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • One-quarter of your 420 puts should be exited to lighten the position in case upside momentum continues through September. The remaining three-quarters should remain to continue providing downside protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended Thursday with moderate gains, supported by firm demand tone and short covering ahead of Friday’s WASDE. December corn gained 2 ¾ to 419 ¾ and March added 2 ¾ to 437 ¼.

  • The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending September 4, the USDA reported new sales of 21.3 mb for the 2025-26 crop year. In addition, a total of 41.2 mb was rolled from the 2024-25 marketing year into the new marketing year. Total corn commitments for the 2025-26 marketing year are at 890 mb, up 69% from last year.

  • The Brazil ag agency, CONAB, released their September crop production forecast on Thursday morning. The agency raised their corn production estimate for the 2024-25 marketing year to a record 139.7 MMT, up 2.7 MMT from last month and over 24 MMT above last year.

  • USDA’s drought monitor reported expanding dryness across the eastern and southern Corn Belt, with 13% of corn acres now in drought versus 9% last week—likely capping production potential this fall.

  • USDA will release the September WASDE on Friday, February 12. Expectations are for corn yield to be reduced to 186.0 bu/a according to analyst survey. The 2025-26 corn ending stocks should also be reduced slightly with demand adjustments to near 2.000 bb.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures bounced off of support on Thursday ahead of Friday’s USDA WASDE report. November soybeans added 8-3/4 cents to close at 1034. October soybean meal added 2.60 to close at 286.10 and October soybean oil gained 0.61 cents to close at 51.08 cents.

  • Soybean oil futures extended gains Thursday, following Wednesday’s rumors that the Trump administration may require large crude oil refineries to cover 50% of waived small-blender obligations. A decision isn’t expected until late October.

  • China has booked nearly all of its October soybean needs and about 15% of November with higher-priced Brazilian supplies. If a U.S.-China trade deal emerges soon, their purchases of U.S. soybeans could be delayed, creating potential logistical bottlenecks domestically.

  • WASDE estimates project 2025/26 ending stocks steady to slightly lower at 287 mb, with 2024/25 stocks seen unchanged. Yield is pegged 0.4 bpa lower at 53.2, while USDA may trim export demand to reflect weak Chinese buying.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat finished the session higher across all three classes, led by Chicago contracts. December Chi gained 6-1/2 cents to 521-1/2, while KC was up 3 at 510, and MIAX was up 2 at 571-1/2. Higher equity markets today may have spilled over some positive influence to commodities, with most of the grain complex positing higher closes.

  • USDA reported 11.2 mb in 2025/26 wheat export sales, with no new 2026/27 sales. Weekly shipments totaled 13.1 mb, below the 16.7 mb pace needed to reach the 875 mb export goal. Total 2025/26 commitments stand at 467 mb, up 19% from last year.

  • The average pre-report estimate for U.S. 25/26 wheat carryout comes in at 862 mb, down from 869 mb in August. However, world ending stocks are expected to increase slightly. For 24/25 the trade is looking for 263.1 mmt vs 262.7 mmt last month, and for 25/26 is looking for 260.8 mmt vs 260.1 mmt. U.S. production numbers will be updated at the end of the month on the Small Grains Summary report.

  • In an update from CONAB, the Brazilian wheat production forecast was decreased from 7.8 mmt to 7.54 mmt. This is largely due to a smaller planted area, and is despite expectations for improved yields.

  • As of September 9, USDA reported spring wheat acres in drought unchanged at 13%. Winter wheat drought coverage rose to 38%, up 4% on the week but still well below 57% at this time last year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 602.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 602.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 590 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 642 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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9-11 Midday: Grain Mixed Ahead of Tomorrow’s USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • The corn market is trading mixed ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report, with expectations of a moderate decline in yield and production.

  • Tomorrow’s USDA report is expected to show corn yield at 186.2 BPA, down from 188.8 BPA in last month’s estimate. New crop ending stocks are projected at 2.011 billion bushels, a decrease from last month’s 2.117 billion.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange has raised its 2024/25 Argentine corn production estimate by 1.5 million metric tons to 50 million, and its 2025/26 forecast to 61 million, driven by a 10% increase in planted area.

  • Early yield estimates from Missouri to southern Illinois have been disappointing, as a dry finish and disease pressure have taken a toll on crop performance.

  • Soybeans are trading higher at midday, seeing a modest bounce ahead of tomorrow’s USDA supply and demand report, with expectations that soybean yield will be revised slightly lower compared to last month’s estimate.

  • Last month’s USDA supply and demand report pegged soybean yield at 53.6 bushels per acre (BPA), but this month’s estimate is expected to dip slightly to 53.3 BPA due to drier weather in key growing regions and the impact of disease-affected crops.

  • Trade tensions with China remain a major concern for the soybean market, with tomorrow’s new crop export figures expected to provide key insight into whether the USDA anticipates progress toward a deal. At this time last year, China had already booked 12–13 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for the September–November shipment window. So far this year, no purchases have been reported.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange expects Argentine’s bean production in 25/26 to be down 2.5 million tons from the current season to 47 million tons, on a 4.3% drop in planted area.

  • Wheat is trading mixed at midday, as the market lacks fresh headlines and expectations remain low for any major surprises in tomorrow’s USDA report.

  • With abundant global supply and competitively low prices from Russia and the EU, U.S. wheat is likely to struggle to rally until global supplies tighten and prices in those regions begin to rise.

  • Expana raised its EU soft red wheat (SRW) harvest estimate overnight to a record high of 136.1 million metric tons, up 3.3 million from its previous projection. Russia’s wheat crop estimate was also revised higher, adding further pressure to the global supply outlook.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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9-11 Opening Update: Corn and Soybeans Higher, Wheat Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is trading higher to start the day with December up 1-1/2 cents at $4.18-1/2 while March is up 1-1/4 at $4.35-3/4. Corn prices have moved higher since last months contract low amid fears of lower yield.

  • Trade estimates for Friday’s report peg U.S. 2024/25 corn carryout at 1.311 billion bu (vs USDA’s 1.305) and 2025/26 at 2.011 billion bu (vs USDA’s 2.117), with crop size seen at 16.516 billion bu, below the USDA’s August estimate of 16.742.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 900k and 2,400k tons with an average guess of 1,583k tons. This would compare to 1,836k a week ago and 667k a year ago at this time.

Corn Futures Consolidate: December corn futures continue to consolidate as traders await the monthly WASDE report on September 12. Prices are currently supported by the 50-day moving average. Technical resistance can be found near 430 through both the 100-day moving average and the July 7 price gap.

  • Soybeans higher to start the day after dropping to support levels at the 50-day moving average nearly every day for the past week but then bouncing higher off it. November soybeans are up 5-3/4 cents to $10.31 while October meal is up $0.50 to $284 and October bean oil is up 0.34 cents to 50.83 cents.

  • Trade estimates slightly undercut USDA figures, with U.S. 2024/25 soybean carryout seen at 328 million bu (vs USDA 330), 2025/26 at 288 million bu (vs USDA 290), and production at 4.271 billion bu (vs USDA 4.292).

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 400k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 950k. This would compare to 795k  last week and 1,474k a year ago.

Soybeans Hold at Support: Early August strength followed USDA’s 2.5 million acre cut to 2025 harvested area, propelling futures through major resistance and key moving averages near 10.30, now acting as support. On the upside, the 10.80 spring highs remain the next major technical hurdle, a level that has consistently capped rallies over the past year.

  • All three wheat classes are weaker this morning with December Chicago wheat down 1-3/4 to $5.13-1/4 and December KC wheat down 2-1/2 cents to $5.04-1/2.

  • Trade estimates for Friday put 2025/26 U.S. wheat carryout at 865 million bu (vs USDA 869) and global ending stocks at 261.1 mmt (vs USDA 260.1).

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales between 300k and 650k tons with an average of 433k tons. This would compare to 318k last week and 465k a year ago at this time.

Chicago Wheat Range Bound: Wheat futures have remained relatively range bound between 519 and 534 following the August low and contract rollover. The first point of technical resistance is near 532 at the 50-day moving average.

KC Wheat Trends Sideways, Tests Lows: June’s rally briefly tested April highs near 580 before fading into month-end. The pullback left futures trading below the 50-day moving average, now key resistance on any rebound. Support is firm at the recent lows near 505, with secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Tests Support: Futures remain rangebound as harvest advances, holding early August lows near 580 support. On the upside, strong resistance sits just above 600 at clustered moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum builds.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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9-10 End of Day: Grains Drift Lower Again on Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn traded lower on Wednesday. Trading was quiet as the market drifted lower ahead of Friday’s USDA WASDE report.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans fell for a second session. Concerns over the lack of Chinese purchases continue to pressure prices, offsetting support from dry forecasts and yield risks heading into Friday’s USDA report.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures slid lower again on Wednesday. A lack of supportive news and rising global crop estimates continue to cap rallies.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell one-quarter of your December 420 puts today.

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • The target to exit half of the December 420 put position has been removed.

      • One-quarter of your 420 puts should be exited to lighten the position in case upside momentum continues through September. The remaining three-quarters should remain to continue providing downside protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished with mild losses for the second straight session on Wednesday. Very quiet news and anticipation of Friday’s USDA report have helped the corn market to drift lower with narrow trading ranges in the past couple of sessions. December corn lost 2 ¾ cents to 417 and March corn slipped 3 cents to 434 ½.

  • Ethanol output hit a 12-week high. For the week ending Sept. 5, average daily production was 1.105 million barrels — the highest ever for this week of the year. Roughly 110 mb of corn was used in production.

  • Biofuels concerns have trickled into the market again on Wednesday as the White House is looking at limiting the amount of blending mandates that large oil companies will need to cover small refineries regarding blending credits. A small than anticipated plan could impact corn demand for biofuels. The lack of clarity regarding policy and recent negative tone may help limit gains in the corn market.

  • USDA will release the September WASDE on Friday, February 12. Expectations are for corn yield to be reduced to 186.0 bu/a according to analyst survey. The 2025-26 corn ending stocks should also be reduced slightly with demand adjustments to near 2.000 bb.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B target to exit one-quarter of the January 1040 puts options has been removed.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the second consecutive day with the November soybeans down 6 cents to $10.25-1/4 while March lost 5 cents to $10.61. October soybean meal was down $4.20 to $283.50 and October soybean oil gained 0.54 cents to 50.47 cents.

  • The soybean market is trying to balance the demand and the potentially tightening supply narrative in the market. Increased news media regarding the lack of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans is trying to outweigh the dry weather forecast and a shrinking potential crop going into Friday’s USDA Report

  • Policy uncertainty is adding headwinds. The White House is reviewing a plan that would shift some waived blending obligations onto major oil companies, a move that could limit soybean oil’s role in biodiesel.

  • Estimates for the WASDE report see 25/26 ending stocks slightly lower to unchanged at 287 mb while 24/25 ending stocks are expected to be unchanged. Yield is projected 0.4 bpa lower at 53.2 bpa. There is a possibility that the USDA lowers export demand to account for the lack of Chinese purchases.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures were down again today, closing 5-1/4 cents lower in December Chicago to 515, while Kansas City lost 3-1/4 cents to 507, and MIAX was down 4-1/2 cents at 569-1/2. A general lack of fresh friendly news, as well as rising Russian and southern hemisphere crop production estimates have been limiting upside for wheat.  

  • IKAR increased their estimate of Russian wheat production from 86 mmt to 87 mmt, which is now closer in line with SovEcon’s 87.2 mmt forecast. In addition, IKAR raised their Russian wheat export estimate by 1 mmt to 44 mmt.

  • This morning, news outlets reported that Poland shot down Russian drones that entered their airspace. This has raised concern about broader conflict developing in the region, as Poland is a NATO member. However, Poland’s prime minister indicated that while this was a provocation, they are not likely on the brink of war.

  • LSEG commodities research has kept their estimate of Canadian 25/26 wheat production unchanged from their last estimate at 35.0 mmt. And while they also reported that although harvest is going well, rains coming in about 5-10 days could slow the current pace.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 605.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 605.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 590 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan A target of 590 against December 2025 futures has been added.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 642 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 647 target has been lowered to 642.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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9-10 Midday: Grain Markets Remain Under Pressure

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn continues to edge lower at midday, with daily trading volume slowing ahead of Friday’s USDA Supply and Demand Report. Traders appear cautiously optimistic about the upcoming estimates. December corn is down 2 cents at 417 ¼.

  • Strong demand continues to support the corn market, with U.S. corn prices remaining competitive. This suggests that the USDA is unlikely to make any significant revisions in Friday’s supply and demand report.

  • Dry conditions are expected to persist across the central and eastern Midwest over the next two weeks, accompanied by rising temperatures.

  • Ukraine has raised its production estimates due to a strong crop outlook, while parts of the EU may face yield losses as heavy rains and storms have caused crop damage.

  • Ethanol production rose to 325 million gallons for the week ending Friday, August 29th, up from 316 million the previous week and 2.3% higher year-over-year. This marks the highest production level in 12 weeks and exceeded market expectations. Approximately 110 million bushels of corn were used in the production process.

  • The soybean market remains under pressure amid the continued absence of Chinese demand, as China has already secured 95% of its October needs from Brazil. November soybeans are down 4.6 cents at 1027 ¼ at midday.

  • Concerns are mounting that the USDA may be forced to lower new crop export estimates in Friday’s supply and demand report due to the continued lack of Chinese purchases. If this trend persists, the U.S. could potentially lose over 15 million tons of soybean demand from China by year-end.

  • Soybean planting has begun in Brazil; however, soil moisture levels in Mato Grosso are currently the lowest in 10 years, according to South American weather service EarthDaily Agro.

  • Dry weather persists across the eastern half of the Corn Belt, with limited chances of rain in the northern Plains. Rising temperatures are helping to eliminate frost risk for the remainder of the month.

  • Wheat continues to move lower at midday as there is little to no fresh news to put any drive under the wheat markets.  December Chicago wheat is 3.4 cents lower at 517 ¼.

  • Chicago wheat prices remain under pressure, showing little to no movement over the past five sessions, as weak global prices continue to weigh on U.S. futures.

  • No significant changes or surprises are expected for wheat in Friday’s USDA report.

  • LSEG raised its Ukraine wheat production estimate by 3.3% from last month but left Canadian production unchanged.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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9-10 Opening Update: Corn & Soybeans Lower, Wheat Steady

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is trading 1 to 2 cents lower this morning with December at $4.18 and March at $4.36. Last trading day for the September contract and the next USDA WASDE report are both this Friday.

  • Trade estimates for Friday’s report peg U.S. 2024/25 corn carryout at 1.311 billion bu (vs USDA’s 1.305) and 2025/26 at 2.011 billion bu (vs USDA’s 2.117), with crop size seen at 16.516 billion bu, below the USDA’s August estimate of 16.742.

  • Dalian and Black Sea corn prices were lower, reflecting higher global supply compared to last year.

Corn Futures Consolidate: December corn futures continue to consolidate as traders await the monthly WASDE report on September 12. Prices are currently supported by the 50-day moving average. Technical resistance can be found near 430 through both the 100-day moving average and the July 7 price gap.

  • Soybeans are 2 to 3 cents lower with November at $10.28 and January at $10.48.

  • Trade estimates slightly undercut USDA figures, with U.S. 2024/25 soybean carryout seen at 328 million bu (vs USDA 330), 2025/26 at 288 million bu (vs USDA 290), and production at 4.271 billion bu (vs USDA 4.292).

  • Soyoil futures fell after news the Senate may block transferring Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) to large refiners, while soymeal prices firmed on tightening Argentina crush margins and rising currency volatility.

Soybeans Hold at Support: Early August strength followed USDA’s 2.5 million acre cut to 2025 harvested area, propelling futures through major resistance and key moving averages near 10.30, now acting as support. On the upside, the 10.80 spring highs remain the next major technical hurdle, a level that has consistently capped rallies over the past year.

  • Wheat markets are mostly steady this morning with December Chicago up 1/2 cent to $5.2075, December Kansas City up 3/4 cent to $5.11 and December Mpls down 1 cent to $5.73.

  • The market is watching upcoming 2026 Southern Hemisphere crops and Russian export volumes and pricing as next key inputs.

  • Trade estimates for Friday put 2025/26 U.S. wheat carryout at 865 million bu (vs USDA 869) and global ending stocks at 261.1 mmt (vs USDA 260.1).

Chicago Wheat Range Bound: Wheat futures have remained relatively range bound between 519 and 534 following the August low and contract rollover. The first point of technical resistance is near 532 at the 50-day moving average.

KC Wheat Trends Sideways, Tests Lows: June’s rally briefly tested April highs near 580 before fading into month-end. The pullback left futures trading below the 50-day moving average, now key resistance on any rebound. Support is firm at the recent lows near 505, with secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Tests Support: Futures remain rangebound as harvest advances, holding early August lows near 580 support. On the upside, strong resistance sits just above 600 at clustered moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum builds.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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9-9 End of Day: Grains Slide Slightly Awaiting USDA Data Friday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn sank slightly lower Tuesday as prices continue to consolidate ahead of the USDA WASDE report Friday.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans slipped in quiet trade ahead of Friday’s WASDE.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes, pressured by weakness in corn and soybeans, softer Paris milling wheat, and firmer U.S. Dollar Index.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell one-quarter of your December 420 puts today.

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • The target to exit half of the December 420 put position has been removed.

      • One-quarter of your 420 puts should be exited to lighten the position in case upside momentum continues through September. The remaining three-quarters should remain to continue providing downside protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures eased slightly on a quiet news day as the market positioned ahead of Friday’s USDA WASDE. December fell 2 cents to 419 ¾, while March slipped 2 cents to 437 ¾.

  • Demand remains supportive but may be slowing, with higher prices limiting export business. USDA hasn’t reported a flash export sale since August 22.

  • Grain markets may be looking to add some weather premium. Long-range forecasts point to above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall across much of the Corn Belt into mid-September. The ongoing dry conditions could limit final yield totals this fall.

  • Harvest pressure is beginning to surface as U.S. corn harvest reached 4% complete. A record crop outlook and fresh supplies could weigh on prices.

  • USDA will release the September WASDE on Friday February 12. Expectations are for corn yield to be reduced to 186.0 bu/a according to analyst survey. The 2025-26 corn ending stocks should also be reduced slightly with demand adjustments to near 2.000 bb.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B target to exit one-quarter of the January 1040 puts options has been removed.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower in quiet trade ahead of Friday’s WASDE report and a lack of fresh news. November soybeans lost 2-1/2 cents to $10.31-1/4 while March soybeans lost 2 cents to $10.66. October soybean meal gained $5.80 to $287.70 and October soybean oil lost 1.05 cents to 49.93 cents.

  • Crop ratings edged lower, with soybeans at 64% good-to-excellent, down 1 point from last week but 1 point above expectations. Pod-setting is 97% complete and 21% of the crop is dropping leaves, both in line with average pace.

  • StoneX has revised their estimates for the 25/26 soybean yield lower to 53.2 bpa. This would be slightly below the USDA’s estimate but is on par with Allendale’s last guess of 53.28 bpa. Production is estimated at 4,257 mb, and the USDA will update its estimates this Friday.

  • Estimates for the WASDE report see 25/26 ending stocks slightly lower to unchanged at 287 mb while 24/25 ending stocks are expected to be unchanged. Yield is projected 0.4 bpa lower at 53.2 bpa. There is a possibility that the USDA lowers export demand to account for the lack of Chinese purchases.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes, pressured by weakness in corn and soybeans, softer Paris milling wheat, and firmer U.S. Dollar Index. Russian export values fell another $2–$4, adding to U.S. market pressure. December KC led losses, down 7 cents to 510 ¼, while Chicago fell 3 ½ to 520 ¼ and MIAX lost 2 ¾ to 574.

  • According to the USDA’s crop progress report, spring wheat harvest is 85% complete as of September 7. This is up 2% from last year’s pace, and 1% from the five-year average. Additionally, the winter wheat crop is now 5% planted, in line with last year and 1% below the five-year average.

  • Data from Statistics Canada showed their all-wheat stocks at 4.112 mmt. This fell under expectations for 4.4 mmt and compares with last year’s 4.6 mmt figure. The wheat market seemed to largely ignore this, however, as is evident by the lower trade.

  • The economy ministry of Ukraine has stated that their nation intends to up the winter grain planted area for 2026 to 5.43 million hectares. This compares with 5.24 million in 2025. Winter wheat sowing on its own may rise from 4.5 to 4.78 million hectares.

  • Russia’s harvest continues to advance, with 105 mmt of grain collected. SovEcon raised its wheat production outlook to 86.1 mmt from 85.4, citing better yields in the Volga Valley.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 605.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 605.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 590 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan A target of 590 against December 2025 futures has been added.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 642 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 647 target has been lowered to 642.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Spring wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather