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10-30 Opening Update: Soybeans Higher, Corn and Wheat Lower Following Trade Talks

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading lower to start the day but have worked off their overnight lows and may post gains on the day. December corn is down 2-1/2 cents to $4.31-3/4 while March is down 2-3/4 to $4.44-3/4.

  • A Bloomberg survey shows that the estimates for corn export sales for the week ending October 23 are within a range of 1,100k and 2,100k tons with an average guess of 1,475k tons. This would compare to 2,342k tons a year ago.

  • The U.S. and Japan finalized and signed a trade agreement on Tuesday. Over the past five years, Japan has imported an average of $14.3 billion in U.S. agricultural products, with corn accounting for roughly 18% of that total.

Corn Futures Close Above Resistance: Corn futures managed to close above structural resistance in a zone between 430 and 432, but did so in a quiet and unconvincing fashion. Minor support has been established at the bottom side of the zone, near 430. Technical resistance can be found above at the 200-day moving average, near 441.

  • Soybean futures are trading higher but have been extremely volatile since the Chinese trade talks and have been in a 33 cent trading range overnight. November soybeans are currently up 6-1/2 cents at $10.86-3/4 and have climbed back from a low of $10.57. March soybeans are up 6 cents to $11.11-1/4, December bean meal is up $3.10, and December bean oil is down 0.28 cents to 49.87 cents.

  • President Trump and Xi came to some good agreements regarding trade last night with China agreeing to buy 12 mmt of soybeans this season and a minimum of 12 mmt per year for the next 3 years. Each country has lowered tariffs on the other, and the trade truce has been extended for a year.

  • Estimates for export sales as of October 23 see soybeans in a range between 700k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 1,200k which would compare to 2,136k a year ago.

Soybeans Break Higher: Soybean futures secured their second consecutive close above the trading range that has bound prices for over a year. This could encourage additional technical buying. Strong psychological resistance should be expected as prices approach 1100, with support at the gap, near 1063.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower but have come back from overnight lows. December Chicago wheat is down 5 cents to $5.27-1/4, KC is down 6-3/4 to $5.16, and Minn wheat is down 3 cents to $5.57-1/2.

  • Argentina and Australia will soon be harvesting record wheat crops. The Argentina crop is estimated near 23 mmt compared to the USDA estimate of 19.5. The Australian crop is estimated at 38 mmt compared to USDA’s estimate of 34.5.

  • Estimates for wheat export sales for the week ending October 23 are in a range between 350k and 900k tons with an average guess of 613k tons. This would compare to 411k tons last year.

Chicago Wheat Breaks Higher: Wheat futures broke through key technical resistance at the 100-day moving average. The 100-day moving average had previously capped any price rallies since late July. With the 100-day moving average now serving as support, the first point of technical resistance can be found at the 200-day moving average, near 539.

KC Wheat Continues Higher, Approaches Resistance: KC wheat has trended higher following a strong daily reversal on October 14. Prices have since managed to break through technical resistance at the 50 and 100-day moving averages and are approaching structural resistance from a previous consolidation phase, near 529. Support can be found at the 100-day moving average, near 517.

Spring Wheat Builds Momentum, Tests Resistance: Spring wheat futures found support near 545 and reversed higher with enough momentum to begin retesting resistance at the 50-day moving average, near 566. Prices have not yet been successful in breaking through this level. A second point of resistance can be found at the 100-day moving average, near 586. Support lies below at 545.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-29 End of Day:  Grains Steady Ahead of Trump–Xi Trade Meeting

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended mixed Wednesday as prices consolidated within Tuesday’s range, with bull spreading noted as nearby contracts outperformed deferred.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended mixed Wednesday following two weeks of strong gains totaling 60 cents. The market paused ahead of the highly anticipated meeting between President Trump and China’s President Xi.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended mixed Wednesday, with light bull spreading noted in both Chicago and Kansas City contracts as buying interest favored the front months.

  • To see the updated U.S. and South American weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

  • The release of new crop progress data has been delayed as a result of the government shutdown. Updated figures will be issued following the resumption of government operations.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December 2026 futures close above 483 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been raised from 482 to 483.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 483 vs December 2026. A close above 483 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market was mixed on Wednesday, as prices consolidated within yesterday’s trading range. The market saw bull spreading with strength in the December contract. December corn futures gained 2 cents to close at 434, and March added ¾ cents to 446 ¾.

  • Weekly ethanol production slipped 1.9% week-over-week to 1.091 million barrels/day for the week ending October 24. Production was below expectations. An estimated 109 mb of corn was used last week in ethanol production.

  • Technically, the corn market remains supported, though the December contract continues to face resistance near the 200-day moving average at 437.

  • A meeting between President Trump and President Xi of China is scheduled for tomorrow. The prospects of a trade deal are helping support grain futures.

  • The Federal Reserve’s 0.25% rate cut Wednesday afternoon strengthened the U.S. dollar, which may act as a headwind for grain prices heading into Thursday’s session.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if January 2026 futures close above 1175 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B call option target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1175 vs January 2026. A close above 1175 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell the first portion of your crop if November 2026 futures break below 1045.

    • Buy call options if November 2026 futures close above 1161 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B stop sale target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Key support for November 2026 futures is at 1045 – a break below this level would indicate the potential for a trend change. A stop is used to allow the current market trend to continue developing and will only trigger a sale recommendation if prices close below this level.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day after two days of massive gains and a gain of 60 cents over the past two weeks. Today’s quiet trade comes ahead of the meeting between President Trump and Xi. November soybeans were up 2 cents to $10.80-1/4 while March was down 1-1/2 cents to $11.05-1/4. December bean meal was up $2.20 to $308.70, and December bean oil was down 0.10 cents to 50.16 cents.

  • Tomorrow in South Korea, President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi about a trade agreement. This news will likely come tonight local time due to the time difference. While no details are known, Trade Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that U.S. farmers would be happy with the deal.

  • China reportedly purchased three cargoes of U.S. soybeans yesterday—two out of the Gulf and one from the Pacific Northwest—the first such purchase in months. While the volume was small, it was viewed as an encouraging sign ahead of trade talks. Still, most of China’s near-term soybean needs have already been covered by South American supplies.

  • In Brazil, soybean crushing is expected to hit a record high of 177 mmt for 25/26 according to Rabobank, which would be up 3% year to year. Brazilian planted soybean area is estimated at 48.8 million hectares, which would be up 2% from the previous year.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a mixed close. Light bull spreading was noted in both Chicago and Kansas City futures, in which there was more buying interest in the front months compared to the back months. December Chicago gained 3-1/4 cents to 532-1/4, Kansas City rose 2-3/4 to 522-3/4, while Minneapolis slipped 1-1/4 to 560-1/2. Like soybeans, wheat appears to be in “wait-and-see” mode ahead of the upcoming meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi.

  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports as of October 26 totaled 6.2 mmt since the season began on July 1. This represents a 21% decline from the 7.9 mmt shipped during a similar period last year.

  • LSEG commodities research has estimated Australian 25/26 wheat production at 34.8 mmt, which is up 2% from the last forecast. This bump is said to largely be supported by satellite imagery, which shows good vegetation density in wheat-growing regions.

  • One private estimate has pegged China’s 26/27 wheat production at 141 mmt, with planted area steady with the prior season at 23.62 million hectares. Winter wheat in China is typically planted between September and November, but the planting pace has been delayed due to heavy rains in October.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Notes:

        • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 futures close above 669 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

      • A Plan B call option target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 669 vs July 2026. A close above 669 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 590.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 590.50.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 590.50 vs December ‘25. A close above 590.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 closes at or above 648.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:
      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 590.50 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 590.50.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 590.50 vs December ‘25. A close above 590.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 KC wheat closes at or above 648.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day temperature outlook courtesy of ag-wx.com

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10-29 Midday: Corn and Soybeans Lose Ground at Midday, Wheat Strengthens

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures remain weak in midday trading, moving lower on concerns that ongoing trade discussions between the U.S. and China will not include corn. Any mention of potential U.S. corn imports by China would be seen as a bullish surprise, especially with China’s harvest currently underway. December corn is down at 4.31 ¾.

  • President Trump announced a trade deal with South Korea overnight, a key buyer of U.S. corn, providing potential support for export demand sentiment.

  • Ukraine corn prices have declined this week as harvest progresses and are now below Brazilian values, though U.S. corn remains the cheapest on the global market.

  • Ethanol production slipped to 321 million gallons last week, down from the previous week but still 1% above year-ago levels. Output came in below expectations, with approximately 109 million bushels of corn used in the production process.

  • Soybeans continue to slip in midweek trade following a strong start to the week, as the market remains severely overbought. Soybeans and soybean oil are posting losses, while soybean meal sees minimal gains. November soybeans are trading lower at 10.77.

  • Overnight reports indicated that China’s COFCO booked 180,000 tons (three cargoes) of U.S. soybeans ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting, marking the first purchase of the season. The timing was not unexpected, as China typically buys before events that could influence prices upward.

  • Dr. Cordonnier raised his estimate for Brazil’s soybean production by 2 million tons to 177 million, slightly below the latest projections from CONAB and ABIOVE.

  • A rain front is expected to move north into central Brazil by the weekend, bringing much-needed soil moisture that should accelerate soybean planting after recent dry conditions stalled fieldwork.

  • Wheat futures are trading higher at midday, despite the China trade deal likely not including U.S. wheat. Over the weekend, trade agreements with other Southeast Asian nations are providing support for U.S. wheat exports. December wheat is seeing gains at 5.31 ½.

  • The recent wheat rally continues to be driven primarily by short covering rather than a shift in global fundamentals. However, potential disruptions to Russian exports due to new sanctions remain a supportive factor.

  • LSEG raised its Australian wheat production estimate by 2%, while Ukraine has sown 81% of its expected winter wheat area.

  • In the U.S., rains have ended across the Southern Plains, and conditions are expected to dry over the next two weeks, with both the 6–10 day and 8–14 day forecasts showing below-normal precipitation.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-29 Opening Update: Grains Slide as Profit Taking and Farmer Selling Pressure Markets

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading slightly lower this morning after failing to break through technical resistance during yesterday’s session. December futures are down 3/4 cent to 431-1/4. March futures are 1-1/2 cents lower to 444-1/2.

  • The U.S. and Japan finalized and signed a trade agreement on Tuesday. Over the past five years, Japan has imported an average of $14.3 billion in U.S. agricultural products, with corn accounting for roughly 18% of that total.

  • December corn futures have gained 17 cents since October 14. Producer selling will likely continue to pressure any additional rallies.

Corn Futures Test Resistance: Corn futures rebounded from the 410 level, a key area of structural support. Prices have since broken through resistance at the upper end of their short-term trading range near 424. However, prices were unable to break structural resistance near 430. The 430 level continues to serve as an area of strong technical resistance.

  • Soybean futures have slipped lower following their impressive rally since Monday. November futures are down 6 cents to 1072-1/4. January futures are down 6-1/4 cents to 1089.

  • President Trump and Chinese President Xi are scheduled to meet this Thursday to discuss a potential trade deal. Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that China is expected to resume ‘substantial’ purchases of U.S. soybeans, with the planned 100% tariff for November 1 reportedly withdrawn.

  • According to StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman, China may need between 5 and 10 million metric tons of soybeans to cover a supply gap before new-crop Brazilian beans become available early next year.

Soybeans Break Higher: Soybean futures have continued to move higher as the market takes an optimistic stance regarding trade tensions with China. Soybean prices gapped higher and closed near the upper end of their trading range from the past year. Strong psychological resistance should be expected as they approach 1100, with support at the gap, near 1063.

  • Wheat has followed corn and soybeans lower this morning. December Chicago wheat is down 1-1/2 cents to 527-1/2, KC is down 3/4 cent to 519-1/4, and Minn is down 1 cent to 561.

  • Speculative traders were estimated to have purchased around 5,500 Chicago wheat contracts Monday, reducing their net short position to below 90,000 contracts. Open interest fell by roughly 6,000 contracts, indicating potential short covering.

  • Argentina and Australia will soon be harvesting record wheat crops. The Argentina crop is estimated near 23 mmt compared to the USDA estimate of 19.5. The Australian crop is estimated at 38 mmt compared to USDA’s estimate of 34.5.

Chicago Wheat Breaks Higher: Wheat futures broke through key technical resistance at the 50-day moving average in a strong fashion. Prices tested resistance at the 100-day moving average, but were unable to close above it. Support lies below at the 50-day moving average, near 517. The 100-day moving average continues to serve as resistance, near 528.

KC Wheat Continues Higher, Approaches Resistance: KC wheat has trended higher following a strong daily reversal on October 14. Prices have since managed to break through technical resistance at the 50-day moving average but were unsuccessful at breaking through the 100-day. The 50-day moving average will now serve as technical support, near 505. The 100-day moving average serves as technical resistance, near 518.

Spring Wheat Builds Momentum, Tests Resistance: Spring wheat futures found support near 545 and reversed higher with enough momentum to begin retesting resistance at the 50-day moving average, near 567. A second point of resistance can be found at the 100-day moving average, near 587. Support lies below at 545.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-28 End of Day:  Grains Continue Higher as Trade Meeting Approaches

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures continued their upward momentum as trade optimism triggered technical buying and short covering.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures led grains higher as the market awaits additional trade deal details from Thursday’s meeting.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures managed to close slightly higher, finding some spillover strength from soybeans and corn.

  • To see the updated U.S. and South American weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

  • The release of new crop progress data has been delayed as a result of the government shutdown. Updated figures will be issued following the resumption of government operations.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December 2026 futures close above 483 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been raised from 482 to 483.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 483 vs December 2026. A close above 483 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • December corn futures traded to their highest level since July 3 on Tuesday as short covering and technical buying triggered strength in the grain markets regarding trade optimism pushing prices higher. December corn traded as high as 436 ¼, before settling 3 ¼ cents higher to 432. March gained 1 ¾ cents to 446.

  • December corn futures have rallied 27 cents since the October 14 low at 409. Resistance over the top of the December futures is the 200-day moving average at 437. December corn hasn’t closed over this point since May 23. Producer selling likely limited the upside potential in the December contract late in the session.

  • Market analysts projected the corn harvest to be nearly 72% complete this past week as the harvest moves into its later stages. Corn harvest is likely moving past the “harvest pressure” stage with less than 30% remaining. Last year, the corn harvest was 81% complete for this date.

  • The U.S. and Japan finalized and signed a trade deal on Tuesday. Over the last five years, Japan has averaged $14.3 billion in U.S. ag imports. An average of 18% of that total was Japanese corn imports from the U.S.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if January 2026 futures close above 1175 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B call option target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1175 vs January 2026. A close above 1175 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if November 2026 futures close above 1161 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the second consecutive day and have gained 36-1/2 cents on the week and 72 cents over the past 2 weeks. November gained 11 cents today to $10.78-1/4 while March gained 11-1/4 cents to $11.06-3/4. December soybean meal gained $8.30 to $306.50 and December soybean oil lost 0.51 cents to 50.26 cents.

  • President Trump and China’s President Xi will meet this Thursday to discuss a trade deal, and Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that China is expected to resume “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans, with the planned 100% tariff for November 1 reportedly withdrawn. Prices will likely react strongly on Thursday morning to whatever the trade deal results are.

  • Surveys estimate that 84% of the soybean crop is now harvested with guesses ranging between 80 and 88%. This would compare to 74% at this time a week ago and 89% a year ago.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw 1,061k tons of soybeans inspected for export, which compared to 1,590k last week and 2,631k tons a year ago. Top destinations were to Mexico, Egypt, and Italy. Export demand has been decent, given China’s absence.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted gains today, albeit most contracts settled at least a nickel below session highs. Initial strength faded when soybeans lost upward momentum around 11 AM – corn and wheat followed. December Chicago gained 3 cents to 529, Kansas City was up 6 at 538, and MIAX closed 1-1/2 higher at 561-3/4.

  • Southern areas of Argentina saw temperatures dip below freezing this morning. This may have caused some wheat crop damage and should be watched closely. Current FOB wheat offers out of Argentina are reportedly about $27/mt below U.S. HRW wheat at the gulf. This is the equivalent of roughly 73 cents per bushel.

  • A Reuters analyst survey suggests that the U.S. winter wheat crop is 85% planted, which would be above last year’s pace of 80%. Additionally, 50% of the crop is believed to be in good to excellent condition, well above the 38% figure from a year ago.

  • Speculative traders are estimated to have purchased about 5,500 contracts of Chicago wheat yesterday, bringing their net short position below 90,000 contracts. Open interest also dropped by about 6,000 contracts, which suggests that there was a healthy amount of short covering going on.

  • Continued rainfall has disrupted and delayed wheat harvest in southern Brazil, especially in Parana. According to CONAB, about 38% of the nation’s wheat crop has been harvested so far. Domestic wheat prices in Brazil have fallen despite the slow harvest, largely due to high ending stocks and competitive imports.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Notes:

        • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 futures close above 669 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

      • A Plan B call option target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 669 vs July 2026. A close above 669 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 591.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 591.75.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 591.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 591.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 closes at or above 648.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:
      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 591.75 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 591.75.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 591.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 591.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 KC wheat closes at or above 648.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day temperature outlook courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: South America 7-day temperature outlook courtesy of National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-28 Midday: Grain Market Extends Gains at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are firm at midday, supported by China/US trade talks and higher soybean prices. December futures are up 6-3/4 cents to $4.35-1/2, while March futures are 5-1/4 cents higher to $4.49-1/2.

  • AgRural estimates that Brazil is now 55% planted, up slightly from last year’s pace of 53% done through the same week.

  • The US corn harvest is seen at 72% complete according to a Reuters poll. This is behind last year’s 81% harvested at this time.

  • Soybeans are once again sharply higher as optimism continues to increase regarding this week’s meeting between the US and China. November soybeans are up 20-1/4 cents to $10.87-1/2, while March futures are 18-3/4 cents higher to $11.14-1/4.

  • According to a Reuters survey, the US soybean harvest has advanced to 84% complete, slightly behind last year’s 89% complete through the same week.

  • Brazil’s soybean planting is seen at 36% complete according to AgRural. Planting advanced 12% from last week and is now on par with last year’s pace.

  • Wheat prices continue to trend higher early in the week as the rest of the grain complex is also higher. December Chicago is up 7-00 cents to $5.33-00, December KC is 9-1/4 cents higher to $5.23-1/2, and December Minneapolis is up 8-00 cents to $5.68-25.

  • Estimates showed winter wheat planting jumping to 85%, up from 76% planted last week. Crop conditions are seen at 50% good-to-excellent, which is up from 38% in the same week last year.

  • Wheat harvest in South America is seeing delays as rains continue to fall in Brazil. The US could also see some precipitation stretch across the Southern Plains this week.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-28 Opening Update: Grains Higher Following Yesterday’s Momentum

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading higher again this morning on optimism over a Chinese trade deal this Thursday. Dec futures came within 1/4 cent of filling the gap from July 3rd. Dec corn is up 2-1/2 cents to $4.31-1/4 while March is up 2-1/2 cents to $4.46-3/4.

  • According to a Bloomberg poll, the corn harvest is estimated to be 73% complete with guesses ranging between 69 and 80%. This would compare to the survey average of 59% last week and 81% a year ago.

  • Yesterday, the USDA said that the US inspected 1,188k tons of corn for export as of October 23. This compared to 1,325k last week and 860k tons a year ago at this time. This is up 38.1% year over year. Top destinations were to Mexico, Colombia, and Korean Rep.

Corn Futures Test Resistance: Corn futures rebounded from the 410 level, a key area of structural support. Prices have since broken through resistance at the upper end of their short-term trading range near 424. However, prices were unable to break structural resistance near 430. The 430 level continues to serve as an area of strong technical resistance.

  • Soybean futures are higher again today as trade anticipates a trade deal with China incoming. Prices reached their highest levels since October 2024. November soybeans are up 9-1/2 cents to $10.76-3/4 and March is up 10-3/4 cents to $11.06-1/4. December soybean meal is up $3.90 to $302.10 and Dec bean oil is down 0.39 cents to 50.39 cents.

  • Surveys estimate that 84% of the soybean crop is now harvested with guesses ranging between 80 and 88%. This would compare to 74% at this time a week ago and 89% a year ago.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw 1,061k tons of soybeans inspected for export which compared to 1,590k last week and 2,631k tons a year ago. Top destinations were to Mexico, Egypt, and Italy.

Soybeans Break Higher: Soybean futures have continued to move higher as the market takes an optimistic stance regarding trade tensions with China. Soybean prices gapped higher and closed near the upper end of their trading range from the past year. Strong psychological resistance should be expected as they approach 1100, with support at the gap, near 1063.

  • Wheat is higher this morning as funds exit short positions as they expect stronger export sales to come. December Chicago wheat is up 5-1/4 cents to $5.31-1/4, KC is up 4-1/2 to $5.19, and Minn is up 4-1/2 cents to $5.64-3/4.

  • Estimates see winter wheat plantings at 85% complete with a range of 81 to 89%. This would compare to last week’s progress of 76%. Crop conditions are estimated at 50% good to excellent with a range of 44-55%, and this would compare to 38% last year at this time.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections saw wheat at 259k tons which compared to 493k last week and 295k tons a year ago at this time. Top destinations were to Korean Rep, Vietnam, and Japan.

Chicago Wheat Breaks Higher: Wheat futures broke through key technical resistance at the 50-day moving average in a strong fashion. Prices tested resistance at the 100-day moving average, but were unable to close above it. Support lies below at the 50-day moving average, near 517. The 100-day moving average continues to serve as resistance, near 528.

KC Wheat Continues Higher, Approaches Resistance: KC wheat has trended higher following a strong daily reversal on October 14. Prices have since managed to break through technical resistance at the 50-day moving average but were unsuccessful at breaking through the 100-day. The 50-day moving average will now serve as technical support, near 505. The 100-day moving average serves as technical resistance, near 518.

Spring Wheat Builds Momentum, Tests Resistance: Spring wheat futures found support near 545 and reversed higher with enough momentum to begin retesting resistance at the 50-day moving average, near 567. A second point of resistance can be found at the 100-day moving average, near 587. Support lies below at 545.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-27 End of Day:  Grains Ride U.S. – China Trade Optimism Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed higher after finding spillover strength from soybeans and wheat but met strong selling pressure near 430.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures showed signs of strength following the announcement of a potential trade deal framework being achieved.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures pressed higher as the market continues to take an optimistic stance on foreign trade relations.

  • To see the updated U.S. and South American weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

  • The release of new commitment of traders data has been delayed as a result of the government shutdown. Updated figures will be issued following the resumption of government operations.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December 2026 futures close above 483 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been raised from 482 to 483.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 483 vs December 2026. A close above 483 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Trade optimism, a strong wheat market and export inspections helped support corn futures higher to start the week. December corn gained 5 ½ cent to 428 ¾, while March added 7 ¼ to 444 ¼.

  • The market strength likely triggered some producer selling of corn, which pressured the December spreads and limited gains in the December futures at 430 price level.

  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that the U.S. and China have reached an initial framework to a trade deal over the weekend. This triggered market optimism on the soybean and wheat markets, helping pull corn futures higher. Details are still very limited in a potential deal.

  • The weekly Export Inspection report was friendly to the corn market as U.S. exporters shipped 1.188MMT (46.7 mb) of corn last week. This total was near the bottom of expectations. Current corn export shipments are strong, running 58% ahead of last year at 414.7 mb.

  • Mississippi River water levels remain low, limiting transport and increasing the cost to move bushels to the Gulf for export. Those additional costs could have a negative impact on the cash market.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if January 2026 futures close above 1175 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B call option target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1175 vs January 2026. A close above 1175 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if November 2026 futures close above 1161 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans extended gains on Monday, with strength seen across the soy complex. The market held firm throughout the session, supported by optimism over reports of a U.S.–China framework deal announced by Treasury Secretary Bessent. November soybeans ended Monday’s session up 25 ½ cents to close at 10.67 ¼, while January soybeans gained 24 ¾ cents to close at 10.85.

  • Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that China is expected to resume “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans, with the planned 100% tariff for November 1st reportedly withdrawn. The Phase 1 compliance review announced last week also appears likely to be shelved. This development improves sentiment around U.S. export prospects, suggesting a possible window for renewed Chinese buying before Brazil’s harvest begins in late January.

  • As of Sunday, the U.S. soybean harvest is estimated at 83% complete, running ahead of the five-year average. In the absence of updated USDA data, this remains an unofficial estimate. Meanwhile, the U.S. Soy Transportation Coalition reported that persistently low Mississippi River levels are slowing barge movement and driving up freight costs to the Gulf amid peak harvest activity.

  • Weekly soybean export inspections totaled 1.061 MMT, reflecting continued seasonal softness and leaving year-to-date volumes down 37% from last year’s pace.

  • IMEA pegged Mato Grosso planting at 60% complete, slightly above the 57% average, while Argentina’s midterm elections saw a win for Milei’s libertarian party. AgRural meanwhile estimated Brazilian soybean planting at 36% as of late last week, roughly in line with last year’s pace.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with double-digit gains across the board for Chicago and Kansas City futures, with some contracts leaving small gaps on the charts. Meanwhile, Minneapolis futures posted less impressive gains. December Chicago was up 13-1/2 cents to close at 526, Kansas City gained 12-3/4 to 514-1/4, and MIAX closed 3-1/4 higher at 560-1/4. Wheat was largely pulled higher by soybeans, which themselves were up sharply due to optimism that the U.S. and China are close to a trade deal. Also supportive to the U.S. wheat market was the sharply higher close for MATIF wheat, and trade deals announced with Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand.

  • Weekly wheat inspections amounted to 9.5 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 421.2 mb, which is up 19% from last year. Inspections are running above the USDA’s estimate pace; total 25/26 exports are forecasted at 900 mb, up 9% from the year prior.

  • Argentina has cold temperatures in their forecast, with the potential for frost or freezing conditions on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. Traders will be watching, as this could potentially cause damage to their wheat crop. Currently, their wheat crop is rated 88% good to excellent, well above the 38% rating a year ago.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $230.50/mt. This is down 50 cents from the week before. In addition, IKAR raised their estimate of Russia’s October wheat exports by 0.5 mmt to 5.5 mmt. Nevertheless, SovEcon kept their October estimate steady at 5.1 mmt.

  • Russia’s agriculture ministry has confirmed their estimate of 50 mmt of grain exports for this season (July ’25 to June ’26). For reference, Russia shipped 53 mmt of grain last season, with wheat accounting for 44 mmt of that total.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Notes:

        • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 futures close above 669 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

      • A Plan B call option target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 669 vs July 2026. A close above 669 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 610 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 610.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 610 vs December ‘25. A close above 610 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 closes at or above 648.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:
      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 610 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 610.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 610 vs December ‘25. A close above 610 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 KC wheat closes at or above 648.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: South America 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-27 Midday: Grains Start Higher Monday on China/U.S. Optimism

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are higher at midday, mostly following sharply higher soybean futures. December corn is up 5 cents currently at 428.

  • Optimism around an upcoming meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi is leading grain futures higher to start the week. Weekend meetings between the two countries were reportedly productive with a pause on some tariffs resulting.

  • After recent harvest results, analysts are leaning lower on U.S. corn yields with most estimates now ranging from the 181 to 184 range, this would be sharply lower than the last USDA estimate from September that pegged U.S corn yield at 186.7.

  • Soybean futures are sharply higher to start the week after a productive meeting around trade between the U.S. and China over the weekend. November soybeans are currently 28 cents higher at 1070.

  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a weekend interview that China would resume “substantial” purchases of U.S. agricultural products, adding that “soybean farmers will feel very good.” This optimism sparked a gap higher in soybean futures during Sunday night’s trade.

  • Brazil’s soybean planting pace is ahead of average with progress in Mato Grosso reaching 60% done as of late last week. Weather appears mostly non-threatening over the next two weeks for much of Brazil.

  • Wheat futures are sharply higher to start the week with December Chicago futures 18 cents higher at 530-1/2. December KC futures 16 cents higher at 517 and December Spring wheat futures 9 cents higher at 566.

  • Paris milling wheat futures along with CBOT contracts, gapped higher to start the week surrounding trade optimism between the U.S. and China. Front month Chicago wheat futures are above the 50-day moving average with this morning push, a level that wheat has been below since mid-July.

  • Weekend comments from the Buenos Airies Exchange projected Argentine wheat production to be in that 22 million metric ton (mmt) to 23 mmt range and sharply above USDA’s estimate. Argentine wheat conditions are 88% good to excellent and just 3% poor to very poor in stark contrast to last year at 38% good to excellent and nearly 20% poor to very poor.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-27 Opening Update: Grains Sharply Higher on Positive China Trade Talks

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading sharply higher with prices a penny off their highs from September. December is up 7 cents to $4.30-1/4 and March is up 7-1/2 cents to $4.44-1/2. The next target would be the 200-day moving average at 4.37 for December.

  • While traders still anticipate a very large crop to be harvested this season, export demand has been very strong, and there is a possibility that the USDA could increase demand on the balance sheet. Harvest is now past the halfway point.

  • With the continued government shutdown, we can only estimate fund activity. Over the past 5 days, funds are estimated to have bought back 6,000 contracts of corn and are likely buying back a significant amount today. Funds still hold a net short position.

Corn Futures Find Support: Corn futures rebounded from the 410 level, a key area of structural support. Prices have since broken through resistance at the upper end of their short-term trading range near 424. However, prices were unable to break structural resistance near 430. The 430 level continues to serve as an area of strong technical resistance.

  • Soybean futures are sharply higher this morning thanks to news that a Chinese trade deal is likely. November soybeans are up 23-1/2 cents to $10.65-1/4 while March is up 19-1/2 cents to $10.93-1/4. December soybean meal is up $3.70 to $297.80 and December soybean oil is up 0.50 cents to 50.77 cents.

  • Overnight, US Treasury Secretary Bessent told the US Sunday new programs that when China’s Xi and President Trump announced a trade deal on Thursday, US farmers would feel very good about this season and the next few years. This immediately brought prices higher.

  • Over the past 5 trading days, funds are estimated to have bought 11,000 contracts of soybeans which would add to their already net long position. They were net buyers of both meal and bean oil.

Soybeans Retest Overhead Resistance: Soybean futures have continued to move higher as the market takes an optimistic stance regarding trade tensions with China. Prices are retesting overhead resistance near 1062. A second point of resistance can be found near 1080, a level that has not been traded above for over a year. Support can be found in a band of moving averages near 1026.

  • Wheat is significantly higher to start the day with December Chicago wheat up 13-1/2 cents to $5.26, KC wheat up 12-3/4 to $5.14-1/4, and Minn wheat up 9 cents to $5.66. Chicago wheat is nearly 35 cents off its recent low.

  • The IGC raised its estimate for global grain stockpiles on wheat and corn for the 25/26 season. Wheat stockpiles have been increased to 275 mmt from 270 mmt in a previous estimate.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange updated their estimates for wheat planting progress in Argentina. Production is estimated at 22.0 mmt which would compare to 18.6 mmt last year. 5.3% of the crop has been harvested at this point.

Chicago Wheat Approaches Resistance: Wheat futures found support soon after breaking below the 502 level and have since continued to trend slightly higher. Prices are approaching key technical resistance near 517 at the 50-day moving average. Support can be found near 491, the near-term low.

KC Wheat Continues Higher, Approaches Resistance: KC wheat has trended higher following a strong daily reversal on October 14. Prices have risen to approach technical resistance at the 50-day moving average, near 505. Should prices break above, a second point of technical resistance can be found near 518 in the 100-day moving average. Support has been established near 477.

Spring Wheat Finds Support, Reverses Higher: Spring wheat futures found support near 545 and reversed higher in a strong fashion. The first point of technical resistance can be found at the 50-day moving average, near 567.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.