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9-9 Opening Update: Grains Virtually Unchanged to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning with December down 1 cent to $4.20-3/4 and March is also trading one cent lower to $4.38-1/2. The grain complex is quiet again today ahead of Friday’s WASDE.
  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw corn ratings down 1 point from last week at 68% good to excellent, but this was higher than the trade estimate. 95% of the crop is in dough stage, 74% is dented, and 25% is mature.
  • Estimates for Friday’s WASDE report see 25/26 ending stocks for corn around 2.013 billion bushels which would be down 104 mb from last month. Yield is expected to decline to 186 bpa.

Corn Futures on the Move Higher: The roll from September to December brought renewed strength, with December futures closing last week above the 50-day moving average. The July 4th gap near 413 has now been filled, and the next upside target is 430. On the downside, the 50-day average stands as key support, with a break opening the door to the gap below 400.

  • Soybeans are completely unchanged to start the day with November at $10.33-3/4 and March at $10.68. October bean meal is up $1.70 to $238.60 and October bean oil is up 0.05 cents to 51.03 cents.
  • The Crop Report saw soybean ratings fall by one point to 64% good to excellent but this was 1 point above the trade guess. 97% of the crop is setting pods and 21% is dropping leaves.
  • Estimates for the WASDE report see 25/26 ending stocks slightly lower to unchanged at 287 mb while 24/25 ending stocks are expected to be unchanged. Yield is projected 0.4 bpa lower at 53.2 bpa.

Soybeans Hold at Support: Early August strength followed USDA’s 2.5 million acre cut to 2025 harvested area, propelling futures through major resistance and key moving averages near 10.30, now acting as support. On the upside, the 10.80 spring highs remain the next major hurdle, a level that has consistently capped rallies over the past year.

  • All three wheat classes are lower to start the day with December Chicago wheat down 1/2 cent to $5.23-1/4 while December KC wheat is down 2-1/2 cents to $5.14-3/4. Yesterday, KC wheat led the complex higher.
  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw that the spring wheat harvest is now 85% complete which is one point above the 5-year average. The winter wheat crop is now 5% planted which compares to the 5-year average of 6% for this time of year.
  • Estimates for Friday’s report see both the 24/25 and 25/26 ending stocks basically unchanged with the first at 863 mb. World ending stocks are expected to increase slightly.

Chicago Wheat Below Moving Averages: June’s rally quickly faded, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 range. Initial support is just above 500 at the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would confirm renewed strength and set up a potential retest of the 590 highs.

KC Wheat Trends Sideways, Tests Lows: June’s rally briefly tested April highs near 580 before fading into month-end. The pullback left futures trading below the 50-day moving average, now key resistance on any rebound. Support is firm at the recent lows near 505, with secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Tests Support: Futures remain rangebound as harvest advances, holding early August lows near 580 support. On the upside, strong resistance sits just above 600 at clustered moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum builds.

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