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9-5 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is trading higher this morning after yesterday prices dropped to support at the 50-day moving average. December corn is up 2-1/4 cents to $4.22 while March is up 2 cents to 4.39-1/2.
  • US ethanol stocks rose by 0.1% to 22.564 m bbl which was up from expectations of 22.442m. Plant production was higher at 1.075 million barrels per day which was also above the survey average of 1.067m.
  • Estimates for todays’ export sales report see corn sales in a range between 900k and 2,200k tons with an average guess of 1,383k tons. This would compare to 2,072k a week ago and 1,649k a year ago at this time.

Corn Futures Bounce From August Lows: Corn futures showed renewed strength with the front-month roll from September to December, closing last week above the 50-day moving average. The July 4th gap near 413 has been filled, with the next upside target at 430. On the downside, the 50-day average is key support, with a break exposing the gap below 400.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning following yesterday’s reversal higher. November soybeans are up 2 cents at $10.35 while March is also up 2 cents trading at $10.68-3/4. October bean meal is up $2.00 at $282.10 while October bean oil is up 0.25 cents at 51.76 cents.
  • StoneX has revised their estimates for the 25/26 soybean yield lower to 53.2 bpa. This would be slightly below the USDA’s estimate but is on par with Allendale’s last guess of 53.28 bpa. Production is estimated at 4,257 mb.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 500k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 900k tons. This would compare to 1,183k last week and 1,431k a year ago at this time.

Soybeans Eye Spring Highs: Soybean futures surged in early August after USDA cut 2025 harvested area by 2.5 million acres. Prices broke through heavy resistance and key moving averages around 10.30, which now act as support on pullbacks. On the upside, the next major resistance is at the spring highs near 10.80, a level that has repeatedly capped rallies over the past year.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning and have rebounded after yesterday Chicago wheat made a new contract low. December Chicago wheat is up 3-3/4 cents to $5.23-1/4 while December KC wheat is up 3 cents to $5.09-1/4.
  • Russia has reportedly harvested 100 mmt of grain so far with expectations that total production will reach at least 135 mmt. Wheat production in Russia has exceeded expectations which has pressured the market.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 350k and 700k tons with an average guess of 492k tons. This would compare to 580k a week ago and 330k tons a year ago at this time.

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s mid-June rally was short-lived, with futures retreating back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support lies just above 500, the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590. 

KC Wheat Continues Sideways Trend: KC wheat futures rallied sharply in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580 before weakening into month-end. The pullback pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, which now stands as key resistance on any rebound. Support is first seen at the recent lows near 505, followed by secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Holds Below Moving Averages: Spring wheat futures faced pressure in July as crop conditions improved and weather turned favorable across key growing areas. While August has seen some support, gains remain limited. Technically, strong resistance sits just above 600 at a cluster of major moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum strengthens. On the downside, recent lows around 580 are expected to provide solid support against further weakness.

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