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9-4 Opening Update: Grains Lower This Morning Led by Soybeans and Wheat

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is trading slightly lower again this morning but has held relatively firm as soybeans and wheat sell off. December corn is down 3/4 cents to $4.17-1/2 while March is down 1/4 cent to $4.35-3/4.
  • Estimates for the weekly EIA report see ethanol production lower than last week at 1.067 million barrels per day, and the average stockpile estimate is 22.442m bbl compared to 22.549m a week ago.
  • Private analyst firm Allendale released an estimate for corn production yesterday of 16.63 billion bushels with a yield of 187.52 bpa. This is much closer to the USDA estimate rather than ProFarmers 182.3 bpa.

Corn Futures Bounce From August Lows: Corn futures showed renewed strength with the front-month roll from September to December, closing last week above the 50-day moving average. The July 4th gap near 413 has been filled, with the next upside target at 430. On the downside, the 50-day average is key support, with a break exposing the gap below 400.

  • Soybeans are lower again this morning and are on track for a third consecutively lower close. Prices are at support at the 200-day average. November soybeans are down 5-3/4 cents to $10.25-3/4, October soybean meal is down $0.40 to $277.20, and October bean oil is down 0.24 cents to 51.20 cents.
  • Yesterday, Allendale projected that the national soybean yield would come in near 53.28 bpa with production at 4.27 bb. This would be slightly below the USDA estimate.
  • US soybean crushings were seen at 204.8 million bushels in July which was up 5.9% from the same period last year and above June crushings of 196.9 mb. The increase in crush is creating a large supply of meal which weighs on prices.

Soybeans Eye Spring Highs: Soybean futures surged in early August after USDA cut 2025 harvested area by 2.5 million acres. Prices broke through heavy resistance and key moving averages around 10.30, which now act as support on pullbacks. On the upside, the next major resistance is at the spring highs near 10.80, a level that has repeatedly capped rallies over the past year.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower to start the day. December Chicago wheat is down 6-3/4 cents at $5.15-1/4 while December KC is down 5-3/4 cents to $5.04-1/2. 
  • SovEcon raised their 25/26 Russian wheat export forecast to 43.7MMT from 43.3MMT noting better crop prospects, but quality issues are a concern and may impact yields.
  • The Crop Progress report saw the spring wheat harvest 72% complete as of Sunday which is up from 53% the previous week and the 5-year average of 69%. 

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s mid-June rally was short-lived, with futures retreating back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support lies just above 500, the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590. 

KC Wheat Continues Sideways Trend: KC wheat futures rallied sharply in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580 before weakening into month-end. The pullback pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, which now stands as key resistance on any rebound. Support is first seen at the recent lows near 505, followed by secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Holds Below Moving Averages: Spring wheat futures faced pressure in July as crop conditions improved and weather turned favorable across key growing areas. While August has seen some support, gains remain limited. Technically, strong resistance sits just above 600 at a cluster of major moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum strengthens. On the downside, recent lows around 580 are expected to provide solid support against further weakness.

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