All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
DEC ’24	412.75	3.5
MAR ’25	431	3.75
DEC ’25	447.75	2.75

Soybeans
NOV ’24	1021.5	9.5
JAN ’25	1039.25	9.75
NOV ’25	1065	8

Chicago Wheat
DEC ’24	580.75	14
MAR ’25	600.75	14.5
JUL ’25	617.75	14.25

K.C. Wheat
DEC ’24	593	16.75
MAR ’25	606.5	16.75
JUL ’25	616	15.5

Mpls Wheat
DEC ’24	623.5	16.25
MAR ’25	645.25	16.5
SEP ’25	670.25	13.75

S&P 500
DEC ’24	5583	-18.25

Crude Oil
NOV ’24	68.55	-1.04

Gold
DEC ’24	2524.2	1.2

Grain Market Highlights

Supported by favorable census export data, strong ethanol production figures for July, and carryover momentum from higher wheat and soybeans, December corn extended its rally for the fourth consecutive session, closing above the 50-day moving average for the second day in a row.
The soybean market also extended its rally for the fourth session in a row with help from a dry forecast, record crush data, and sharply higher soybean meal prices. Soybean oil succumbed to further pressure from lower crude oil, palm oil, and canola. December Board crush stabilized at 144 ¾ cents, regaining a mere ¼ cent following yesterday’s 6 ¼ cent drop on lower bean oil.
The wheat complex led the gains in the grain markets today. Higher Matif wheat, a lower US Dollar, and solid July export data that was 19% higher year over year were enough to feed the market bulls and push the complex to double-digit gains, led by the KC and Minneapolis contracts.
To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and US Monthly Drought Outlook, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed and demand has picked up. While the upcoming harvest of an expectedly large crop may continue to limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low price levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover more of their extensive short positions and rally prices further, however, an extended rally is unlikely until after harvest.

No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.
No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Solid use and export data helped rally the corn market for the fourth consecutive day, as traders likely covered additional short positions, and December corn extended its move above the 50-day moving average.
The USDA’s latest weekly Crop Progress report, released yesterday afternoon, showed that the good-to-excellent ratings for the corn crop held steady at 65%, compared to 53% at this time last year. The report also noted that 90% of the crop has reached the dough stage, 60% has dented, and 19% is now mature.
The USDA reported that 473.5 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol production in July, marking a 4% increase from the previous year. Total usage for the 23/24 marketing year stands at 4.988 billion bushels, up 5.3% year-over-year, aligning with the USDA’s full-year projection of 5.450 bb with one month left in the reporting period.
Today, the USDA released census export data for July, which totaled 207 mb. This figure is 9 mb lower than June’s, but it far surpassed the 94 mb recorded for July 2023. July exports also exceeded weekly inspections data by 19 mb.
There are reports that India is pushing to increase corn-based ethanol production as it shifts away from sugar cane. This transition could turn India into a net corn importer by nearly 1 million metric tons, compared to its current exports of 2 to 4 mmt. Potential corn imports could come from Myanmar and Ukraine, with the US and South America potentially stepping in to fill the export gaps left by India.

Above: Since mid-August prices have largely been rangebound between 400 and 390. A close above the 400 – 414 resistance area could set prices up to rally toward the 430 area. Should they break and close below 385 support, they may be at risk of sliding towards the 372 support level.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.

No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day higher for the fourth consecutive day and so far, the November contract has gained 21 ½ cents on the week. Support has come from strength in soybean meal, solid crush demand, and a dry forecast, which is expected to last two weeks. Soybean oil ended the day lower with pressure from crude and vegetable oils.
Yesterday, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed the soybean crop rating falling 2 points to 65% good to excellent. Last year, the rating was 53% at this time. 94% of the soybean crop is setting pods, compared to 84% last week, and 13% of the crop is dropping leaves versus 6% last week and the 5-year average of 10%.
The USDA’s release of Census crush data yesterday afternoon revealed a record July crush totaling 193.4 million bushels, surpassing trade expectations of 192.1 mb. This brings the total crush for the 23/24 marketing year to 2.12 billion bushels, representing 92.6% of the USDA’s current estimate. Meanwhile, soybean oil stocks were the lowest on record for July at 2.01 billion pounds, slightly above trade expectations of 1.97 bp.
In Brazil, farmers are preparing to plant soybeans but are dealing with above average temperatures that are expected to last through September 12 with many key growing areas expected to remain dry. Brazilian soybean planting typically begins in mid-September but could be pushed back slightly due to the weather.
Yesterday, China purchased 132,000 metric tons of soybeans, and more rumors have circulated today that China may have bought an additional 350,000 to 540,000 mt of US soybeans this week. Export demand has picked up at a critical time for soybean prices.

Above: The recent rally has brought November soybeans into the 1005 – 1040 resistance area. A close above this range could set the market up for a rally toward the July high of 1082 ¼. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat was the upside leader today with double-digit gains in all three classes. Today’s drop in the US Dollar Index, followed by a higher close for Matif wheat futures both offered support to the US market. Additionally, India’s domestic wheat price is said to have risen above $9.00 per bushel. This lends credence to the idea that India may need to import wheat, which is also bullish.
Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report indicated that the US spring wheat crop is 70% harvested as of September 1. This compares with 68% last year and 70% average. Additionally, the winter wheat crop is now 2% planted, which is in line with the five-year average.
Census exports for the month of July totaled 72.5 mb of wheat. This was far above the 55 mb figure from June and was up 13% from July of last year. Additionally, exports have totaled 128 mb for the first two months of the 24/25 marketing year and are up 19% compared to last year.
European Union soft wheat exports as of September 1 have reached 4.38 mmt, according to the European commission; the export season began on July 1. This represents a 23% decline from last year’s 5.66 mmt of exports for this time. Nigeria was the leading importer, followed by Egypt and Morocco.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Sell JUL ’25 Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert pressure on the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. Since posting the recent low, July ’25 Chicago wheat prices have rallied about 50 cents and have entered the congestion and resistance area from early July. Considering there may be significant resistance overhead in this area, we recommend taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on a portion of your anticipated 2025 soft red winter wheat crop, using either July ’25 Chicago wheat futures, or a July ’25 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s close above the 50-day moving average set it up for a potential challenge of the 560 – 570 resistance area, and a rally towards 590 – 595. Should prices reverse and close back below the 50-day moving average, they could again find support near 514, with further support around 500 and 488.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 640 – 670 range to recommend making additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December wheat appears poised to test overhead resistance near 600, with additional moving average resistance just above there between 605 – 610. If the market turns lower, initial support remains near the 50-day moving average, with further support near the recent 527 ¼ low.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.
No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: December Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support near 560. Should prices continue higher, they could encounter resistance in the 617 – 637 area. To the downside, a break below 560 could put the market at risk of a further decline towards support around 540.

Above: Spring wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather