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9-30 Opening Update: Grains Lower on Bearish Crop Progress Report

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading lower to start the day as stronger than expected crop ratings pressure prices. December corn is down 2-1/4 cents to $4.19-1/4 while March is down 2-1/2 cents to $4.36. Support for December may be at the $4.15 level.
  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw corn ratings unchanged from last week at 66% good to excellent while trade was anticipating a 1-2 point drop. This is above the 5-year average of 64% at this time. 71% of the crop is mature and 18% is harvested, down 2 points from this time a year ago.
  • This week’s export inspections were good for corn and within trade guesses at 1,527k tons which compared to 1,386k last week and 1,150k a year ago. Top destinations were Mexico, Japan, and Korean Republic.

Corn Futures Consolidate Below Resistance: Following the release of the September WASDE report, corn futures pressed higher. Prices managed to break through the 100-day moving average but have since begun to consolidate below strong resistance at the July 7 price gap. The first point of support lies near 420, at the 100-day moving average.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning and are testing the lows from this current trading range. November soybeans are down 3 cents to $10.07-1/2 while March is down 3-1/2 cents to $10.42. October soybean meal is down $3.30 to $264.80 and October soybean oil is unchanged at 49.11 cents.
  • Crop Progress saw soybean crop ratings improve one point from last week to 62% while trade estimates were expecting a decline. 79% of the of the crop is dropping leaves and 19% is harvested.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections saw soybeans at 594k tons which was within trade estimates. This compared to 566k last week and 683k a year ago. Top destinations were to Germany, Japan, and Turkey.

Soybean Futures Break Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower to start the day with December Chicago wheat down 1 cent to $5.18-1/4, KC wheat down 1/2 cent to $5.07-1/2, and Minn wheat down 1/4 cent to $5.67-1/2.
  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report saw that the winter wheat crop is now 34% planted which is up from 20% last week but behind from the 5-year average slightly. 13% of the crop is emerged which is up from 4% last week and is on par with the average.
  • This week’s export inspections saw wheat inspections at 739k tons which compared to 940k last week and 552k a year ago. Top destinations were to Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Japan.

Chicago Wheat Fails to Find Support: Wheat futures continue to trade lower after finding resistance in the 100-day moving average and breaking below the 50-day moving average. The next point of technical support is near 502, at the one year low.

KC Wheat Makes New Low: December KC wheat broke through its 50-day moving average in a strong fashion following the September WASDE report. The market has since turned lower, breaking back below the 50-day moving average and continuing lower to trade at new lows.

Spring Wheat Seeks Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since August 26, 2024. The first point of strong resistance sits near 585 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600.

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