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9-3 Opening Update: Grains Trading Quietly Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is trading slightly lower to start the day with the December contract down 1-1/4 cents to $4.21-3/4 while March is down 1 cent to $4.39-3/4. Yesterday, corn prices remained firm despite sell-offs in the other grain markets.
  • Demand for US corn is pushing record start to the marketing year.  Current corn export sales on the books are the second best in the past 25 years.  Another strong week of sales this week could like make the 2025-26 ,marketing year the strongest start ever, eclipsing the 2021-22 marketing year.
  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw corn ratings fall by 2 points from last week to 69% good to excellent. 90% of the crop is in dough stage, 58% is dented, and 15% of the crop is mature.

Corn Futures Bounce From August Lows: Corn futures showed renewed strength with the front-month roll from September to December, closing last week above the 50-day moving average. The July 4th gap near 413 has been filled, with the next upside target at 430. On the downside, the 50-day average is key support, with a break exposing the gap below 400.

  • Soybeans are starting the day lower again today with November down 1-1/2 cents to $10.39-1/2 while March is down 1-1/2 cents as well to $10.73-1/2. October meal is down $0.60 to $277.70 and October bean oil is down 0.44 cents to 51.83 cents.
  • US soybean crushings were seen at 204.8 million bushels in July which was up 5.9% from the same period last year and above June crushings of 196.9 mb. The increase in crush is creating a large supply of meal which weighs on prices.
  • Soybean crop ratings fell by more than expected from last week, dropping 4 points to 65% good to excellent. 94% of the crop is setting pods and 11% is dropping leaves.

Soybeans Eye Spring Highs: Soybean futures surged in early August after USDA cut 2025 harvested area by 2.5 million acres. Prices broke through heavy resistance and key moving averages around 10.30, which now act as support on pullbacks. On the upside, the next major resistance is at the spring highs near 10.80, a level that has repeatedly capped rallies over the past year.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago and Minn lower but KC slightly higher. December Chicago wheat is down 1/4 cent at $5.28 while December KC is up 1-1/4 cents to $5.12-1/2. Yesterday’s export inspections were decent for wheat.
  • SovEcon raised their 25/26 Russian wheat export forecast to 43.7MMT from 43.3MMT noting better crop prospects, but quality issues are a concern and may impact yields.
  • The Crop Progress report saw the spring wheat harvest 72% complete as of Sunday which is up from 53% the previous week and the 5-year average of 69%. 

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s mid-June rally was short-lived, with futures retreating back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support lies just above 500, the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590. 

KC Wheat Continues Sideways Trend: KC wheat futures rallied sharply in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580 before weakening into month-end. The pullback pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, which now stands as key resistance on any rebound. Support is first seen at the recent lows near 505, followed by secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Holds Below Moving Averages: Spring wheat futures faced pressure in July as crop conditions improved and weather turned favorable across key growing areas. While August has seen some support, gains remain limited. Technically, strong resistance sits just above 600 at a cluster of major moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum strengthens. On the downside, recent lows around 580 are expected to provide solid support against further weakness.

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