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9-29 Opening Update: Grains Trading Lower to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading slightly lower to start the week and have faded from overnight highs with December now below the 21-day moving average. December is down 1-3/4 cents to $4.20-1/4 and March is down 1-1/2 to $4.37-1/4.
  • India is reportedly considering buying US corn for producing ethanol and increasing energy purchases in general in an effort to secure a trade deal according to the Economic Times.
  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of corn by 14,624 contracts which increased their net short position to 94,675 contracts. This is now the shortest that funds have been in the ag complex in the last 12 months.

Corn Futures Consolidate Below Resistance: Following the release of the September WASDE report, corn futures pressed higher. Prices managed to break through the 100-day moving average but have since begun to consolidate below strong resistance at the July 7 price gap. The first point of support lies near 420, at the 100-day moving average.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning and remain rangebound and below all major moving averages. November soybeans are down 3-1/2 to $10.10-1/4 while March is down 3 cents to $10.46. October soybean meal is up $1.90 to $270.70 and October soybean oil is down 0.31 cents to 49.29 cents.
  • Global palm and soybean oil prices are expected to rise by an estimated $100-$150 a ton or more next year as a result of supply concerns as vegetable oil supplies may tighten between January and March.
  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 31,589 contracts of soybeans as of September 23 leaving them short 29,302 contracts. They sold 22,286 contracts of bean oil and 20,497 contracts of meal.

Soybean Futures Break Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning and have faded from higher prices overnight. December Chicago wheat is down 3/4 cent to $5.19, KC wheat is down 3/4 cent to $5.04-3/4, and Minn wheat is down 1/2 cent to $5.67-1/4.
  • Wheat futures may be seeing pressure from an improvement in the EU projected production as a result of favorable harvest weather. soft wheat production is now estimated at 132.6 mmt compared to the previous estimate of 128.1 mmt.
  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 12,110 contracts which left them short 97,935 contracts. They bought back 1,230 contracts of KC wheat leaving them short 50,304 contracts.

Chicago Wheat Fails to Find Support: Wheat futures continue to trade lower after finding resistance in the 100-day moving average and breaking below the 50-day moving average. The next point of technical support is near 502, at the one year low.

KC Wheat Makes New Low: December KC wheat broke through its 50-day moving average in a strong fashion following the September WASDE report. The market has since turned lower, breaking back below the 50-day moving average and continuing lower to trade at new lows.

Spring Wheat Seeks Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since August 26, 2024. The first point of strong resistance sits near 585 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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