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9-25 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher Following Yesterday’s Weakness

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading higher to start the day after losing 2 cents. Today, December futures are back above the 100-day moving average and are up 2-1/2 cents to $4.26-3/4 while March is up 2-3/4 cents to $4.43-3/4.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 1,000k and 1,800k tons with an average guess of 1,383k. This compares to 1,232k tons a week ago and 535k tons a year ago.
  • Strong export demand continues while corn crop projections trend lower. Analysts and satellite data point to dry weather and disease pressure reducing yields toward the trendline average. Even so, expanded acreage from the past two WASDE reports suggests the crop could still set a record.

Corn Futures Consolidate Below Resistance: Following the release of the September WASDE report, corn futures pressed higher. Prices managed to break through the 100-day moving average but have since begun to consolidate below strong resistance at the July 7 price gap. The first point of support lies near 420, at the 100-day moving average.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning following positive Argentinian news. November is up 5-1/2 cents to $10.14-1/2 while March is up 5 cents to $10.49-3/4. October soybean meal is down $0.10 to $271.60 and October soybean oil is up 0.47 cents to 49.76 cents.
  • Overnight, the Argentinian government announced that the countries goal of 7 billion USD was fulfilled, and today, the export tax for soybeans will return to 26%, making US soybeans less expensive by comparison.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales see soybeans between 500k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 950k tons. This would compare to 925k a week ago and 1,438k a year ago.

Soybean Futures Break Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the day. December Chicago wheat is up 5-3/4 cents to $5.25-1/2 while December KC wheat is up 6 cents to $5.12-3/4. HRW wheat is up 3-1/4 cents to $5.71.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 300k and 600k tons with an average guess of 417k. This would compare to 388k a week ago and 169k tons a year ago.
  • The Canadian Grain Commission reported that samples of the Canadian durum wheat crop show signs of sprouting and mildew, attributed to wet weather. Earlier this month, Statistics Canada estimated the durum crop at 6.53 million metric tons, which, if realized, would be the largest harvest since 2020.

Chicago Wheat Fails to Find Support: Wheat futures continue to trade lower after finding resistance in the 100-day moving average and breaking below the 50-day moving average. The next point of technical support is near 502, at the one year low.

KC Wheat Makes New Low: December KC wheat broke through its 50-day moving average in a strong fashion following the September WASDE report. The market has since turned lower, breaking back below the 50-day moving average and continuing lower to trade at new lows.

Spring Wheat Seeks Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since August 26, 2024. The first point of strong resistance sits near 585 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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