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9-24 Opening Update: Grains Higher To Begin The Day

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are quiet this morning with December futures unchanged from yesterday at $4.26-1/4. March futures are are also unchanged, trading at $4.43.
  • Corn’s technical outlook strengthened with yesterday’s trade. December futures held support near 420, finishing at the top of the range above both the 100-day moving average and yesterday’s high. The firm close may encourage further short covering and fresh buying today.
  • Strong export demand continues while corn crop projections trend lower. Analysts and satellite data point to dry weather and disease pressure reducing yields toward the trendline average. Even so, expanded acreage from the past two WASDE reports suggests the crop could still set a record.

Corn Futures Consolidate Below Resistance: Following the release of the September WASDE report, corn futures pressed higher. Prices managed to break through the 100-day moving average but have since begun to consolidate below strong resistance at the July 7 price gap. The first point of support lies near 420, at the 100-day moving average.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning following yesterday’s minimal gains. November soybeans are down 3-3/4 cents to $10.08-1/4 and March is down 3-1/2 cents to $10.44-1/4. October soybean meal is down $1.30 to $273.80 and October bean oil is down 0.03 cents to 49.32 cents.
  • Soybean demand remains under pressure after recent trade talks with China yielded little progress on export commitments. At the same time, Argentina’s move to reduce export taxes could make its soybeans more attractive for China’s Nov–Dec needs, limiting opportunities that U.S. exporters had been targeting.
  • The market will be monitoring the November-January spread to determine the impact of Argentina’s zero export tax policy.

Soybean Futures Break Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the day. December Chicago wheat is down 3/4 cent to $5.21-1/4 and December KC wheat is up 1 cent to $5.12-1/2. 
  • The Canadian Grain Commission reported that samples of the Canadian durum wheat crop show signs of sprouting and mildew, attributed to wet weather. Earlier this month, Statistics Canada estimated the durum crop at 6.53 million metric tons, which, if realized, would be the largest harvest since 2020.
  • Some reports suggest that rising Russian wheat values are supporting global wheat prices. SovEcon noted that Russian wheat export prices increased by $1 from last week, reaching $229/mt.

Chicago Wheat Fails to Find Support: Wheat futures continue to trade lower after finding resistance in the 100-day moving average and breaking below the 50-day moving average. The next point of technical support is near 502, at the one year low.

KC Wheat Makes New Low: December KC wheat broke through its 50-day moving average in a strong fashion following the September WASDE report. The market has since turned lower, breaking back below the 50-day moving average and continuing lower to trade at new lows.

Spring Wheat Seeks Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since August 26, 2024. The first point of strong resistance sits near 585 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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