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9-2 Opening Update: Soybeans and Wheat Leading Grain Complex Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Technical buying and short covering have supported the corn market into the end of August.  December corn futures finished the month trading higher on Friday’s close.  The first positive month since May.  An improved technical picture should keep buyers active.  Dec corn futures have traded higher 5 out of the 6 years in the month of September.
  • Current dry weather forecasts and disease concern have the market pricing in a small overall crop compared to the USDA August forecast.  With the strong export demand the feeling of the corn supply picture tightening overall is supporting the market.
  • Demand for US corn is pushing record start to the marketing year.  Current corn export sales on the books are the second best in the past 25 years.  Another strong week of sales this week could like make the 2025-26 Marketing year the strongest start ever, eclipsing the 2021-22 marketing year.

Corn Futures Show Signs of Life: With the front-month roll from September to December, corn has shown renewed strength. Prices rallied to close last week above the 50-day moving average, a constructive signal. Early this week, corn filled the post–July 4th gap near 413, with the next upside target seen at the gap near 430. On the downside, the 50-day average serves as initial support, while a break could expose the gap below 400.

  • Lack of a potential trade deal with China from this past week of negotiations is pressuring the market and Chinese buyer look to Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay for soybean supplies in the window they typically buy US soybeans.
  • Dry weather forecast support the soybean market as areas on the corn belt have seen there driest August in over 100 years.  The poor finishing weather will likely limit the potential final crop size as harvest approaches.
  • Despite the lack of Chinese soybean exports sales, purchases of US soybeans by non-China  buyers are off to a strong start.  Reported sales excluding China and Unknown destinations are off to the strongest start since 2018-19 as other countries have sources soybeans from the United States.  Regardless, US still will need Chinese purchases to hit projected export targets for the 2025-26 marketing year.

Soybeans Eye Spring Highs: Soybean futures surged in early August after USDA cut 2025 harvested area by 2.5 million acres. Prices broke through heavy resistance and key moving averages around 10.30, which now act as support on pullbacks. On the upside, the next major resistance is at the spring highs near 10.80, a level that has repeatedly capped rallies over the past year.

  • Wheat is trading lower following the long weekend with December Chicago wheat down 9-1/2 cents to $5.24-3/4 while Dec KC wheat is down 9 cents at $5.10-3/4. Larger Russian production may be pressuring wheat.
  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of wheat. They bought back 23,528 contracts of Chicago wheat reducing their net short position to 81,587 contracts. They bought back 2,699 contracts of KC wheat leaving them short 48,681 contracts.
  • SovEcon raised their 25/26 Russian wheat export forecast to 43.7MMT from 43.3MMT noting better crop prospects, but quality issues are a concern and may impact yields.

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s mid-June rally was short-lived, with futures retreating back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support lies just above 500, the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590. 

KC Wheat Continues Sideways Trend: KC wheat futures rallied sharply in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580 before weakening into month-end. The pullback pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, which now stands as key resistance on any rebound. Support is first seen at the recent lows near 505, followed by secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Holds Below Moving Averages: Spring wheat futures faced pressure in July as crop conditions improved and weather turned favorable across key growing areas. While August has seen some support, gains remain limited. Technically, strong resistance sits just above 600 at a cluster of major moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum strengthens. On the downside, recent lows around 580 are expected to provide solid support against further weakness.

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