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9-19 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher Ahead Of Trump, Xi Meeting

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading higher to start the day and continue to hover right at the 100-day moving average. December corn is up 1-3/4 cents while March is up 1-/2 cent at $4.43. December futures have not yet filled their gap at $4.32-3/4.
  • New estimates for the Argentinian corn crop have been released with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange seeing the 25/26 planting estimate at 7.8 million hectares, up from 7.1m ha last year. The crop is 6.2% planted.
  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw corn sales within trade guesses at 1,232k tons which compared to 540k last week and 847k a year ago. Top buyers were Mexico, South Korea, and Japan.

Corn Futures Consolidate Below Resistance: Following the release of the September WASDE report, corn futures pressed higher. Prices managed to break through the 100-day moving average, but have since begun to consolidate below strong resistance at the July 7 price gap.

  • Soybeans are lower this morning following yesterday’s 6 cent loss with concerns over a Chinese trade deal. November is down 3-1/2 cents to $10.40-1/4 and March is down 3-1/4 to$10.74-3/4. October soybean meal is down $1.40 to $282.50 and October bean oil is down 0.21 cents to 51.03 cents.
  • The EPA on Tuesday issued a co-proposal to reallocate either 50% or 100% of small refinery exemptions for 2023–25, while also revising RVOs for 2026–27. A higher reallocation means more soybean oil demand for biofuels. 
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see bean sales between 400k and 1,500k tons with an average guess of 808k tons. This would compare to 541k a week ago and 1,757k a year ago.

Soybean Futures Range Bound: Soybean futures offered a strong reaction following the release of the September WASDE report, but have since failed to break out of the 1020 to 1060 price range they have traded in following contract rollover on August 14.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with gains in Chicago but slight losses in KC. December Chicago wheat is up 1/4 cent to $5.24-1/2 while December KC wheat is down 1/4 cent to $5.09-3/4. Minneapolis wheat is 1-1/2 cent higher.
  • The Grain Association of Western Australia has raised its forecast for the region’s wheat harvest to 11.8 mmt for the 25/26 season. This would be up from August’s estimate of 11.5 mmt. Australia is one of the world’s largest exporters of wheat.
  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw wheat sales within analyst guesses at 388k tons which compared to 305k last week and 258k a year ago. Top buyers were the Philippines, Mexico, and Nigeria.

Chicago Wheat Rejected by Resistance: Wheat futures failed to break through its 100-day moving average. Instead, prices reverted lower, breaking below support at the 50-day moving average.

KC Wheat Trends Sideways, Tests Lows: December KC wheat broke through its 50-day moving average in a strong fashion following the September WASDE report. The market has since turned lower, breaking back below the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Tests Support: Futures remain rangebound as harvest advances, holding early August lows near 570 support. On the upside, the first point of strong resistance sits near 585 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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