Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position could trigger an extended short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

• No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
• No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Earlier this summer we recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of those remaining puts. Looking ahead, our current upside strategy is to target the 640 – 670 range, also in the July ’25, to recommend making additional sales.
• No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December KC wheat appears to have encountered resistance near 600, a close above which could put the market in position to test the 605 – 610 resistance area. If the market turns lower, initial support remains near the 50-day moving average, with further support near the recent 527 ¼ low.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 10. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 8,727 contracts between Sept.3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 18,510 contracts.