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9-12 Opening Update: Grains Trading Unchanged to Slightly Higher Ahead of USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is trading very quietly to start the day ahead of the supply and demand report sat 11am. December corn is up 1 cent at $4.20-1/2 while March is up 1-1/4 to $4.38-1/2.
  • Trade estimates for Today’s report peg U.S. 2024/25 corn carryout at 1.311 billion bu (vs USDA’s 1.305) and 2025/26 at 2.011 billion bu (vs USDA’s 2.117), with crop size seen at 16.516 billion bu, below the USDA’s August estimate of 16.742.
  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw corn sales increase 21.3 million bushels for 25/26 and none for 26/27. Last week’s export shipments to 27.1 mb were below the 55.3 mb needed. Top buyers were to Mexico, Japan, and unknown.

Corn Futures Consolidate: December corn futures continue to consolidate as traders await the monthly WASDE report on September 12. Prices are currently supported by the 50-day moving average. Technical resistance can be found near 430 through both the 100-day moving average and the July 7 price gap.

  • Soybeans are unchanged to slightly higher with the November contract up 3/4 cent to $10.34-1/4 while March is up 1/4 cent to $10.68-1/4. October soybean meal is down $1.20 to $284.90 and October soybean oil is up 0.35 cents to 51.43 cents.
  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw an increase of 19.9 mb for the 25/26 marketing year and none for 26/27. Top buyers were unknown, Taiwan, and Indonesia. Last week’s shipments of 8.6 mb were well below the 32.8 mb needed.
  • Trade estimates for today’s report slightly undercut USDA figures, with U.S. 2024/25 soybean carryout seen at 328 million bu (vs USDA 330), 2025/26 at 288 million bu (vs USDA 290), and production at 4.271 billion bu (vs USDA 4.292).

Soybeans Hold at Support: Early August strength followed USDA’s 2.5 million acre cut to 2025 harvested area, propelling futures through major resistance and key moving averages near 10.30, now acting as support. On the upside, the 10.80 spring highs remain the next major technical hurdle, a level that has consistently capped rallies over the past year.

  • All three wheat classes are weaker this morning with December Chicago wheat down 1 cent to $5.20-1/2 and December KC wheat down 3/4 cents to $5.09-1/4.
  • Trade estimates for today’s report put 2025/26 U.S. wheat carryout at 865 million bu (vs USDA 869) and global ending stocks at 261.1 mmt (vs USDA 260.1).
  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw wheat sales with an increase of 11.2 mb for the 25/26 marketing year. Top buyers were Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

Chicago Wheat Range Bound: Wheat futures have remained relatively range bound between 519 and 534 following the August low and contract rollover. The first point of technical resistance is near 532 at the 50-day moving average.

KC Wheat Trends Sideways, Tests Lows: June’s rally briefly tested April highs near 580 before fading into month-end. The pullback left futures trading below the 50-day moving average, now key resistance on any rebound. Support is firm at the recent lows near 505, with secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Tests Support: Futures remain rangebound as harvest advances, holding early August lows near 580 support. On the upside, strong resistance sits just above 600 at clustered moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum builds.

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