9-12 End of Day: Grains Finish Higher Following September WADSE Release
Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board
Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: Corn futures continued higher Friday following reduced ending stocks projections in the WASDE report.
- 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans futures finished higher Friday, supported by WASDE projections and export shipments to China.
- 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures finished with minimal gains despite the WASDE report reducing ending stocks.
- To see the updated U.S. 6-10 day Temperature outlook as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
Active
Exit 1/4th DEC ’25 420 Puts ~ 15c
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
2025 Crop:
- Continued Opportunity – Sell one-quarter of your December 420 puts today.
- Plan A:
- No active targets.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
- Changes:
- One-quarter of your 420 puts should be exited to lighten the position in case upside momentum continues through September. The remaining three-quarters should remain to continue providing downside protection.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
- Changes:
- None.
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- A positive reaction to the USDA Crop Production report helped push the corn to strong gains on Friday’s session. December corn gains 10 ¼ cents to close at 430, and March corn added 10 cents to 447 ¼. Friday’s close was the highest close on Dec corn since July 18. September corn closed its trading life today, settled at 399 on final trades.
- The USDA released the September WASDE on Friday afternoon. The USDA increased planted acres by 1.5 million acres to 98.7 million acres and also lifted the harvested total to 90 million acres. The acre adjustment was a surprise to the market for the second straight month after adding 2.5 million acres on the August report.
- The yield projection was being closely watched as dry weather has limited the finish on this year’s corn crop. The USDA lowered the yield forecast by 2.0 bu/a to 186.7 bu/a., down from 188.7 in the August report.
- With the combination of increased acres, but reduced yield, the USDA calculated total production at 16.814 billion bushels, up 73 million from last month. The USDA raised corn exports by 100 mb for the marketing year. The carryout projection for 2025-26 was lowered by 7 mb to 2.110 BB, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.1%,
- Ending stocks above 2.0 billion are considered heavy, but buyers stepped into the market believing that the yield projection will continue to decrease. With the current demand strength, the carryout number could trend lower in reports down the road, which is friendly to the corn market.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.
- Changes:
- None
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day sharply higher in volatile trade and in defiance of a relatively bearish WASDE report. November soybeans gained 12-3/4 cents to $10.46-1/4 while March gained 12-1/4 cents to $10.80-1/4. October soybean meal was up $1.50 to $287.60 and October soybean oil gained 0.59 cents to 51.67 cents.
- Today’s WASDE report was bearish with yield estimates revised slightly lower to 53.5 bpa but was above the average trade guess of 53.3 bpa. Soybean planted acreage was revised higher by 200,000 acres and export demand was revised slightly lower. Ending stocks for 25/26 were estimated at 300 mb, which was up from last month’s guess of 290 mb.
- This morning, private exporters reported sales of 22,000 metric tons of soybean oil for delivery to South Korea during the 2025/2026 marketing year.
- China has booked nearly all of its October soybean needs and about 15% of November with higher-priced Brazilian supplies. If a U.S.-China trade deal emerges soon, their purchases of U.S. soybeans could be delayed, creating potential logistical bottlenecks domestically.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat was able to bounce back from early struggles to finish higher on the day. KC led the way higher, with the December contract up 3-1/4 to $5.13-¼, Chicago was 00-1/2 higher to $5.21-3/4, MIAX closed 00-1/4 to $5.71-3/4.
- Today’s WASDE report showed US wheat supplies unchanged while exports were higher and ending stocks were lowered. Exports increased 25 mb to 900 mb while ending stocks were lowered by 25 mb to 844 mb.
- World wheat supplies were up 9 mt to 1,078.6 mt due to increased production estimates globally. Russia’s wheat production was bumped 1.9 mt higher to 140.1 mt based on harvest results. Increased global production could put some downside pressure on domestic wheat prices.
- Conab cut their Brazilian wheat production forecast to 7.54 mmt, down from the groups previous estimate of 7.81 mmt.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 25 vs December for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 602.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.
- Changes:
- The Plan A target has been lowered to 602.75.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 590 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.
- Changes:
- None
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 642 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.
- Changes:
- None.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 6 to 10-day temperate outlook courtesy of NOAA.
Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.