All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
DEC ’24	404.75	0.5
MAR ’25	423.5	0.25
DEC ’25	445	1

Soybeans
NOV ’24	1000.5	3.25
JAN ’25	1019	3.75
NOV ’25	1052	4.5

Chicago Wheat
DEC ’24	579.25	5
MAR ’25	598.25	4.75
JUL ’25	614.25	4.5

K.C. Wheat
DEC ’24	588.25	4.25
MAR ’25	601.25	4.25
JUL ’25	611.5	3.75

Mpls Wheat
DEC ’24	616.5	6.5
MAR ’25	637.5	5.5
SEP ’25	662.75	6.25

S&P 500
DEC ’24	5595.5	33

Crude Oil
NOV ’24	66.61	1.47

Gold
DEC ’24	2541.6	-1.5

Grain Market Highlights

With little fresh news, the corn market settled fractionally higher after choppy, two-sided trade in a relatively tight 6 ¼-cent range in the December contract, as traders prepped for tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report.
November soybeans closed mid-range and higher on the day after trading both sides of unchanged as the market found support near yesterday’s lows and traders squared positions ahead of tomorrow’s report. December soybean meal found support near its 50-day moving average and closed higher on the day, while December bean oil encountered selling at the day’s highs near the 20-day moving average and closed lower.
Technical momentum and short covering ahead of the USDA report kept buyers active across the wheat complex, driving higher closes in all three classes. Additional support also came from carryover strength in Matif wheat.
To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and 1 week precipitation forecast for South America, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed and demand has picked up. While the upcoming harvest of an expectedly large crop may continue to limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low price levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover more of their extensive short positions and rally prices further, however, an extended rally is unlikely until after harvest.

No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.
No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

The corn market saw choppy 2-sided trade as the market squared positions before tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report. Grain markets in general saw mild buying strength during the session.
Thursday the USDA will release the next WASDE and Crop Production reports. Expectations are for US corn yield to be lowered by 0.4 of a bushel to 182.7 bu. per acre reflecting the variability in this year’s corn crop. Regardless, this is still a record for US corn yield. Ending stocks for the 24/25 marketing year are expected to be 2.033 billion bushels, still a large overall supply picture.
Weekly ethanol production improved to 1.080 million barrels per day last week, up 4% over last year. The strong usage of corn in ethanol production should merit a raise of old crop corn usage for ethanol in Thursday’s USDA report. The USDA is targeting 24/25 marketing year ethanol usage to be at 5.450 billion bushels.
The USDA will also release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations are for corn sales to range from 700,000 – 1.6 mmt for the week. New crop sales last week reached 1.822 bb.
The Mississippi River levels at Memphis have dropped to record low levels, limiting barge traffic on the river. The increased freight cost will weigh on corn exports as US corn prices are rising versus global grain competition. In addition, near-term gulf movement could be limited by the impacts of Hurricane Francine making landfall in the Louisiana area today.

Above: After posting a bearish reversal on September 6, the corn market has remained relatively stable. Overhead resistance remains around 416, a close above which could set prices up to rally toward the 430 area. On the downside, support could be found near the 50-day moving average, and again near 385.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has steadily declined due to sluggish demand for the new crop, favorable growing conditions, and expectations of a large upcoming harvest. Weather forecasts have also generally remained supportive of the crop, while the market has factored in the likelihood of higher yields. With the weather turning drier as the crop enters its final development, the funds have covered some of their extensive short positions and rallied prices. While the market still anticipates a large crop at harvest, which could ultimately weigh on prices, should yields be less than expected, the recent pick up in demand could spur more short covering by the funds.

No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day higher but have been in a steady downward trend since last Friday when prices broke to the downside. With the results of tomorrow’s WASDE report uncertain, funds are likely buying back a portion of their short position. Soybean meal ended the day higher, while soybean oil was lower despite higher crude and palm oil.
Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report see the 23/24 soybean ending stocks falling to 343 mb from 345 mb last month, and 24/25 ending stocks increasing to 568 mb from 560 mb due to an expected increase in yields. The average yield estimate for the report is 53.3 bpa with the high end of the estimates at 54.9 bpa. Last month’s estimate was at 53.2 bpa. World ending stocks are expected to be virtually unchanged to slightly lower at 134 mmt.
In Brazil, on top of issues already being caused by the ongoing drought, fires have now burned the protective straw that is used by soybean farmers to protect fields from heat. The window for early planting is ending, and now it seems like the typical planting pace may be pushed back which could be supportive to prices.
After crude oil futures lost nearly 3 dollars a barrel yesterday, they recovered slightly today and are currently trading $1.50 higher. Yesterday’s losses came from OPEC stating that it was lowering its demand forecast for the second time in two months. Unfortunately, today’s rebound did not translate to support for soybean oil.

Above: After entering the 1005 – 1040 resistance area, November soybeans posted a bearish key reversal which remains intact, suggesting prices could erode further. Below the market, support remains between 960 and 955, with key support near the August low of 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat posted gains across all three classes, alongside Matif wheat futures. This marks the third consecutive higher close for the December Chicago contract, likely driven by upward technical momentum and short covering ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report, as there is little fresh news directly impacting wheat today.
The average pre-report estimate for US 24/25 wheat ending stocks in tomorrow’s WASDE report is 820 mb, down 8 mb from the August forecast. World ending stocks for 23/24 are expected to show a small increase from 262.4 mmt to 262.5 mmt, while the 24/25 world carryout is anticipated to drop to 255.8 mmt from 256.6 mmt in last month’s report.
The USDA is not expected to revise its estimate of US 2024 wheat production, which currently stands at 1.982 bb. An updated estimate will be released on September 30 in the Small Grains Summary report. If there are any significant changes in tomorrow’s wheat numbers, they may come in the form of an upward revision to exports; current sales are up 31% from last year.
According to the Ukrainian agricultural ministry, the nation’s grain exports as of September 11 have totaled 8.2 mmt, well above the 5.4 mmt for the same period last year. Wheat exports account for 4.3 mmt of this total, compared to 2.5 mmt last year.
A month ago, the USDA approved HB4 wheat, a GMO variety more resistant to drought. The CEO of Bioceres, the Argentinian biotech company that developed this variety, recently stated it will take two years before marketing can begin in the US. The HB4 variety has already been approved in Argentina and Brazil, but securing approval from countries that import US wheat will be critical.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor in the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger an extended short-covering rally by managed funds.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts—after advising to exit the first half back in July—to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s close above the 50-day moving average set it up for a potential challenge of the 560 – 570 resistance area, and a rally towards 590 – 595. Should prices reverse and close back below the 50-day moving average, they could again find support near 514, with further support around 500 and 488.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position could trigger an extended short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Earlier this summer we recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of those remaining puts. Looking ahead, our current upside strategy is to target the 640 – 670 range, also in the July ’25, to recommend making additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December KC wheat appears to have encountered resistance just below 600, a close above which could put the market in position to test the 605 – 610 resistance area. If the market turns lower, initial support remains near the 50-day moving average, with further support near the recent 527 ¼ low.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering an extended short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. While we are at the time of year when market lows often occur, we will consider posting upside targets in late September or early October when market conditions often become more advantageous, and harvest is mostly behind us.
No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.
No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The 617 – 637 resistance area appears to remain intact. A close above this area could put the market in position for a run toward 685, with potential resistance near the 100 and 200-day moving averages before that. To the downside, a break below the 50-day moving average could put the market at risk of sliding towards 560.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil, N. Argentina 1 week forecast precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather