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9-10 Opening Update: Corn & Soybeans Lower, Wheat Steady

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is trading 1 to 2 cents lower this morning with December at $4.18 and March at $4.36. Last trading day for the September contract and the next USDA WASDE report are both this Friday.
  • Trade estimates for Friday’s report peg U.S. 2024/25 corn carryout at 1.311 billion bu (vs USDA’s 1.305) and 2025/26 at 2.011 billion bu (vs USDA’s 2.117), with crop size seen at 16.516 billion bu, below the USDA’s August estimate of 16.742.
  • Dalian and Black Sea corn prices were lower, reflecting higher global supply compared to last year.

Corn Futures Consolidate: December corn futures continue to consolidate as traders await the monthly WASDE report on September 12. Prices are currently supported by the 50-day moving average. Technical resistance can be found near 430 through both the 100-day moving average and the July 7 price gap.

  • Soybeans are 2 to 3 cents lower with November at $10.28 and January at $10.48.
  • Trade estimates slightly undercut USDA figures, with U.S. 2024/25 soybean carryout seen at 328 million bu (vs USDA 330), 2025/26 at 288 million bu (vs USDA 290), and production at 4.271 billion bu (vs USDA 4.292).
  • Soyoil futures fell after news the Senate may block transferring Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) to large refiners, while soymeal prices firmed on tightening Argentina crush margins and rising currency volatility.

Soybeans Hold at Support: Early August strength followed USDA’s 2.5 million acre cut to 2025 harvested area, propelling futures through major resistance and key moving averages near 10.30, now acting as support. On the upside, the 10.80 spring highs remain the next major technical hurdle, a level that has consistently capped rallies over the past year.

  • Wheat markets are mostly steady this morning with December Chicago up 1/2 cent to $5.2075, December Kansas City up 3/4 cent to $5.11 and December Mpls down 1 cent to $5.73.
  • The market is watching upcoming 2026 Southern Hemisphere crops and Russian export volumes and pricing as next key inputs.
  • Trade estimates for Friday put 2025/26 U.S. wheat carryout at 865 million bu (vs USDA 869) and global ending stocks at 261.1 mmt (vs USDA 260.1).

Chicago Wheat Range Bound: Wheat futures have remained relatively range bound between 519 and 534 following the August low and contract rollover. The first point of technical resistance is near 532 at the 50-day moving average.

KC Wheat Trends Sideways, Tests Lows: June’s rally briefly tested April highs near 580 before fading into month-end. The pullback left futures trading below the 50-day moving average, now key resistance on any rebound. Support is firm at the recent lows near 505, with secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Tests Support: Futures remain rangebound as harvest advances, holding early August lows near 580 support. On the upside, strong resistance sits just above 600 at clustered moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum builds.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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