All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
DEC ’24	404.25	-3
MAR ’25	423.25	-2.75
DEC ’25	444	-1

Soybeans
NOV ’24	997.25	-20.75
JAN ’25	1015.25	-20.25
NOV ’25	1047.5	-15.5

Chicago Wheat
DEC ’24	574.25	5.75
MAR ’25	593.5	6
JUL ’25	609.75	5.5

K.C. Wheat
DEC ’24	584	8.25
MAR ’25	597	8
JUL ’25	607.75	8

Mpls Wheat
DEC ’24	610	3.25
MAR ’25	632	3.5
SEP ’25	656.5	3.75

S&P 500
DEC ’24	5553.75	15.75

Crude Oil
NOV ’24	65.35	-2.56

Gold
DEC ’24	2545.1	12.4

Grain Market Highlights

Sharply lower soybeans, logistics concerns on the Mississippi River, and the onset of harvest all brought the sellers back into the corn market. While December corn lost ground during the session, yesterday’s low and moving average support held just below the market.
Weakness in the soybean products, solid, unchanged good to excellent crop ratings, and lower crude oil pressured the soybean market lower as it corrects from overbought conditions.
Potential short covering ahead of Thursday’s WASDE report, lower Russian wheat production estimates, and anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts lent support to the wheat complex. Despite the negativity in neighboring corn and soybeans, all three classes of wheat closed higher on the day.
To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and 1 week precipitation anomaly forecast for South America, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed and demand has picked up. While the upcoming harvest of an expectedly large crop may continue to limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low price levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover more of their extensive short positions and rally prices further, however, an extended rally is unlikely until after harvest.

No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.
No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Building harvest pressure and logistical concerns that could be a concern brought sellers back into the corn market today. Despite wheat futures trading higher, strong selling pressure in the soybean market helped limit any potential gains in corn futures.
USDA released weekly crop ratings on Monday afternoon. The current crop is still rated 64% good to excellent, steady with last week. In maturity, 74% of the crop is dented, 29% considered mature. Early harvest has begun in southern growing regions, and 5% of the crop has been harvested, slightly ahead of the 5-year average at 3%.
The Mississippi River levels at Memphis have dropped to record low levels, limiting barge traffic on the river. The increased freight cost will weigh on corn exports as US corn prices are rising versus global grain competition. In addition, limited river movement may cause a backlog of freshly harvested corn, impacting the cash market as harvest picks up speed.
Thursday the USDA will release the next WASDE and Crop Production report. Expectations are for US corn yield to be lowered by 0.4 of a bushel to 182.7 bu. per acre reflecting the variability in this year’s corn crop. Regardless, this is still a record for US corn yield.

Above: Since mid-August prices have largely been rangebound between 400 and 390. A close above the 400 – 414 resistance area could set prices up to rally toward the 430 area. Should they break and close below 385 support, they may be at risk of sliding towards the 372 support level.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Above: Corn percent mature (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has steadily declined due to sluggish demand for the new crop, favorable growing conditions, and expectations of a large upcoming harvest. Weather forecasts have also generally remained supportive of the crop, while the market has factored in the likelihood of higher yields. With the weather turning drier as the crop enters its final development, the funds have covered some of their extensive short positions and rallied prices. While the market still anticipates a large crop at harvest, which could ultimately weigh on prices, should yields be less than expected, the recent pick up in demand could spur more short covering by the funds.

No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day sharply lower, taking out all of yesterday’s gains as pressure from crude oil and a Crop Progress report that showed high crop ratings pressured the market. Both soybean meal and oil were sharply lower as well with soybean oil in particular taking a bigger hit due to the drop in crude.
Today, crude oil fell by nearly $3.00 a barrel and last traded at $66.00 per barrel, the lowest level since July of 2023. This came after OPEC stated that it was lowering its demand forecast for the second time in two months. They expect demand to grow by 2 million bpd, which is 80,000 bpd slower than the previous forecast. The slowdown in demand is reportedly due to lower Chinese consumption.
Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed good to excellent ratings for soybeans unchanged from last week at 65%. Trade was expecting ratings to decline by 2 points to 63% on account of the recent dry stretch. 25% of the crop was dropping leaves which compares to 13% a week ago and the 5-year average of 21%.
This Thursday, the USDA will release its Supply and Demand report, and estimates are calling for ending stocks to be relatively unchanged, but the average yield is expected to rise slightly with the average trade guess at 53.3 bpa which would compare to last month’s guess of 53.0 bpa.

Above: The recent rally has brought November soybeans into the 1005 – 1040 resistance area. A close above this range could set the market up for a rally toward the July high of 1082 ¼. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Above: Soybeans percent dropping leaves (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

All three wheat classes posted gains, even as corn closed lower and soybeans declined sharply. Crude oil also saw a significant drop after OPEC cut its demand forecast for the second consecutive month. However, wheat managed to defy this negative sentiment, likely supported by reports of lower Russian yields and anticipation of a possible Fed rate cut next week, which could weaken the US Dollar. Additionally, some short covering may be occurring ahead of Thursday’s WASDE report.
Yesterday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report showed that 85% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested, slightly ahead of both last year and the 5-year average of 83%. The report also noted that 6% of the winter wheat crop has been planted, matching the average and up 1% from the same time last year. Meanwhile, a tropical storm in the Gulf is expected to make landfall tomorrow evening, which could bring heavy rains and delay SRW crop planting in some areas.
IKAR has reportedly reduced their estimate of the Russian wheat crop by 1.6 mmt to 82.2 mmt. Adverse weather in Volga, Urals, and Siberia is cited as the reason for the decline. Corn production was also cut to the lowest level since 2018. Additionally, their Russian wheat export forecast was also dropped by 0.5 mmt to 44 mmt.
Despite high import prices, Brazil is reportedly taking in more wheat. According to data from Secex, 2024 wheat imports from January to August reached 4.556 mmt, which is the largest total since 2020 and is also 9% above 2023. Additional data from CONAB suggest that 11.6% of Brazil’s wheat crop has been harvested as of last week.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Sell JUL ’25 Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor in the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger an extended short-covering rally by managed funds.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. Since posting the recent low, July ’25 Chicago wheat prices have rallied about 50 cents and have entered the congestion and resistance area from early July. Considering there may be significant resistance overhead in this area, we recommend taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on a portion of your anticipated 2025 soft red winter wheat crop, using either July ’25 Chicago wheat futures, or a July ’25 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s close above the 50-day moving average set it up for a potential challenge of the 560 – 570 resistance area, and a rally towards 590 – 595. Should prices reverse and close back below the 50-day moving average, they could again find support near 514, with further support around 500 and 488.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position could trigger an extended short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 640 – 670 range to recommend making additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December KC wheat appears to have encountered resistance just below 600, close above which could put the market in position to test the 605 – 610 resistance area. If the market turns lower, initial support remains near the 50-day moving average, with further support near the recent 527 ¼ low.

Above: Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering an extended short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.
No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The 617 – 637 resistance area appears to remain intact. A close above this area could put the market in position for a run toward 685, with potential resistance near the 100 and 200-day moving averages before that. To the downside, a break below the 50-day moving average could put the market at risk of sliding towards 560.

Above: Spring wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil, N. Argentina 1 week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather