Corn is trading slightly lower this morning, but the December contract has been hesitant to drop below the 4-dollar level for long as it remains strong support.
Funds have been buying back smaller portions of their net short position over the past three weeks, but prices have not rallied. This is likely due to farmer selling old crop on rallies and the need to make room for the incoming crop.
In Monday’s WASDE report, traders will be looking for changes in acreage and in yield. The general thought is that acres will be lowered due to the flooding, but there were 4 million acres unaccounted for earlier in the season that could pop up. It is expected that yields will increase.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning with the September contract hovering right above the 10-dollar mark which has been very strong support. Yesterday, prices were just 3/4 of a cent away from dipping below that level. Soybean meal is trading higher this morning while soybean oil is lower.
Similar to corn, trade is expecting a large soybean crop which has not done anything to support prices. Domestic demand has been good, but export have been very slow with China not making purchases of new crop in their typical strength. There have been rumors of sales which have not been officially announced.
Monday’s WASDE report is expected to show an increase in the soybean yield to 52.5 bpa with production estimates up 34 mb from July to 4.469 bb. The average carryout estimate for 24.25 is 472 mb which is up 22 mb from July.
All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning, but yesterday’s lower close broke the streak of higher closes that had been ongoing for 5 days. Production concerns in Europe and the Black Sea region may be helping prices move higher.
Estimates for wheat in Monday’s WASDE report have all wheat production increasing from last month to 2,017, and all winter wheat increasing to 1,346 from last month.
Wheat ending stocks for 24/25 are estimated at 859 mb which would be up slightly from last month’s 856 mb. World wheat ending stocks are expected to be mostly unchanged at 257.0 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
