8-7 End of Day: Grains Close Lower Again Midweek
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 383.25 | -5.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 400.75 | -4.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 446.25 | -2 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’24 | 1018.75 | -8 |
| JAN ’25 | 1034.75 | -8.5 |
| NOV ’25 | 1055.75 | -8.75 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 538.25 | -5 |
| DEC ’24 | 562 | -4.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 600.5 | -3.75 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 555.5 | -6 |
| DEC ’24 | 572.25 | -6 |
| JUL ’25 | 600 | -4 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 585.75 | -6.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 606.75 | -5.5 |
| SEP ’25 | 647.5 | -2.5 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5238.75 | -27.5 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| OCT ’24 | 74.13 | 1.79 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2404.7 | -4.6 |
Grain Market Highlights
- The corn market settled lower for the second consecutive day as sellers continue to be active on expectations of higher yields, and producers bring old crop supplies to market to make room for a potentially large new crop.
- Similar to corn, soybeans closed lower for the second day in a row as weather has been conducive for high yield expectations and a potentially bearish upcoming USDA report.
- While soybean meal followed through on yesterday’s weakness, soybean oil lent some underlying support to the soybean market as it closed sharply higher on a Reuters report stating that the EPA is investigating biofuel makers’ supplies of used cooking oil.
- The wheat complex gave up the gains from yesterday to settle lower on the day across all three classes, as they lost technical momentum to the upside despite news of a record Egyptian tender for 3.8 mmt of wheat.
- To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, the 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and this week’s Vegetation Drought Response Index, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, NDMC, EROS, and HPRCC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
Since the release of the July WASDE, which surprised the market by keeping the 24/25 ending stocks figure around 2.1 billion bushels, Dec ‘25 corn has traded to a fresh contract low while managed funds re-established their record net short position. Even though the weather has been mostly favorable for the crop and the trade may be factoring in a higher potential yield, the USDA is expected to update its acreage estimates in the upcoming August WASDE report, which could shift lower due to the slow planting pace last spring. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Selling pressure is weighing on the grain markets, with corn prices melting lower over the past two sessions. The prospects of improved yields and producer selling of old crop supplies limit the market’s upside.
- Ethanol for production last week slipped 3.8% week over week to a daily production of 1.067 million barrels per day. This total is still up 4.3% over last year’s levels. The amount of corn used for the week was estimated at 105.91 million bushels, which is slightly below the pace to reach the USDA marketing year target.
- Weather forecasts remain non-threatening for corn production. Long-range forecasts into mid-August are targeting cooler than normal temperatures. Rainfall looks more limited for the corn belt, but the cooler temperature should ease some plant stress.
- The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. New exports sales are expected to range from 100,000-400,000 mt for the old crop and 475,000 – 1.0 mmt for the new crop. With only a few weeks left in the 23/24 marketing year, the focus will likely be on new crop sales.
- On Monday, the USDA will release the August crop production report. With the higher-than-average crop ratings, expectations for corn yield are to be over 182 bushels/acre, up from trendline of 181 bushels/acres from previous reports. The increase in potential production is limiting the market’s rally potential.
Above: The downside breakout through 389 could suggest that prices have further downside risk towards the 362 – 360 support area. However, if prices hold and turn around, they could encounter nearby resistance between 395 and 400, with heavier resistance between 404 and 415.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop. While weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates, the USDA is expected to update its acreage estimates in the upcoming August WASDE, which could be lower given the slow planting pace last spring. Therefore, any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower for the second consecutive day, as the USDA’s WASDE report approaches on Monday, and traders anticipate a bearish reaction. The weather has been bearish for soybeans and corn, and while exports have ticked up, it has not been enough to incentivize funds to exit their short positions. Soybean meal was lower today, but soybean oil was higher as it followed the move in crude oil.
- Trade estimates for Monday’s WASDE report have started coming out, and the average yield is being pegged at 52.5 bpa, which would be up from last month’s 52.0 bpa. Production is estimated to come in higher as well at 44.72 billion bushels which would be up from 44.35 bb last month.
- The trade estimates that the USDA will lower Argentine soybean production to 51.0 mmt, down from 52.0 mmt last month. In Brazil, soybean production is also expected to decrease to 151.8 mmt from 153.0 mmt last month. Meanwhile, world soybean ending stocks are projected to increase to 128.3 mmt from 127.8 mmt last month.
- The 7-day forecast doesn’t hold anything too concerning, with normal temperatures and rain expected. A La Nina pattern had previously been expected to cause hot and dry conditions this summer, but so far that has not been the case and has affected grain prices negatively.
Above: Since the end of July, the soybean market has been rangebound between 1005 and 1035. A close below 1008 could put the market at risk of trading down to 1000 and then 985. While a close above the initial resistance area of 1035 – 1045 could put prices on track toward 1130 – 1170, though further resistance may be encountered near 1082.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat closed lower across the board today. The US dollar continues to recover from its recent steep selloff, maintaining pressure on the grain complex. From a technical standpoint, all three US wheat classes have lost upward momentum; daily stochastics are near the middle of the range and close to sell crossovers for both December Chicago and Kansas City futures.
- Egypt has announced a record wheat tender at 3.8 mmt, with delivery starting in October and ending in April. This may have provided some early support to the wheat market. However, given the uncertainty of wheat prices, freight costs, and logistics that far out, exporters may be hesitant to commit to offers. The deadline for offers is August 12, so time will tell what happens. For reference, Egypt typically imports about 5-6 mmt of wheat per year.
- SovEcon has reduced its production estimates for Ukrainian corn and wheat, citing hot and dry weather that has limited yields. The wheat projection is now at 19.7 mmt, compared with 20.4 mmt last month. Additionally, the yield is now estimated at 4.2 tons per hectare, down from 4.4 last year.
- According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports as of August 4 have reached 2.18 mmt since the season began on July 1. This is down from 3.57 mmt for the same time frame last year. The top importing nations of this wheat include Nigeria, Egypt, and Morocco.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.
- No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: The market appears to have found support just below the market near 575. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.
Other Charts / Weather
US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
