8-7 End of Day: Grain Markets Gain Ground on Supportive Export Report
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’25 | 384.5 | 4.75 |
| DEC ’25 | 407 | 5.75 |
| DEC ’26 | 447.5 | 3.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’25 | 993.75 | 9.25 |
| JAN ’26 | 1012.5 | 9.25 |
| NOV ’26 | 1047 | 6.75 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 518.25 | 9.75 |
| DEC ’25 | 539 | 9.75 |
| JUL ’26 | 581 | 10 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 521.5 | 10 |
| DEC ’25 | 541.75 | 9.75 |
| JUL ’26 | 582 | 7.75 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 5.74 | 0.05 |
| DEC ’25 | 5.95 | 0.0275 |
| SEP ’26 | 6.505 | 0.0475 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’25 | 6343 | -28 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| OCT ’25 | 63 | -0.41 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’25 | 3423.1 | 17.9 |
Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: Corn markets ended Thursday’s trading session with modest gains, finding support from a positive export report that boosted market sentiment and helped offset recent downward pressure.
- 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day on a higher note, supported by strong export sales and trader positioning ahead of next week’s WASDE report.
- 🌾 Wheat: Wheat markets followed corn’s lead on Thursday, closing the day with gains across all three classes, supported by strong export sales that reinforced demand optimism.
- To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
- Changes:
- The exit target for the 510 call options has been cancelled, given the significant rally that would be required to reach it.
- For the 420 puts to achieve the 43 ¾ cent target, the December ’25 contract would need to fall to roughly the 380 area.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
- Changes:
- The 483 sales target has been cancelled, and an upside Plan B call buy stop has been added at 482. Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-to-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage to protect the four prior sales recommendations.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- The corn market saw follow-through buying support after Thursday’s rebound from contract lows. A firm tone in export demand, highlighted by strong weekly sales and additional new sales announcements, helped underpin prices and boost market sentiment.
- The USDA released the weekly export sales report on Thursday morning. New crop corn sales remain very strong with new sales totaling 3.16 MMT (124.5 mb) for the week ending July 31, well above expectations, and the third highest total all time. A portion of the strong sales was the movement of 491,700 MT of sales reduced from old crop and rolled into new crop.
- The corn marketing year ends on August 31, and the U.S. still has nearly 300 mb of old crop corn sales to ship. Export shipments will be key going into the end of the month, but it is likely any unshipped bushels will be shifted to new crop sales.
- USDA announced two more flash sales of corn on Thursday morning. The USDA reported Mexico purchased 106,680 (4.2 mb) MT and Guatemala purchased 105,000 MT (4.1 mb) of corn for the 2025-26 marketing year.
- Next Tuesday, August 12, the USDA will release the August crop production report with a potential yield adjustment. With the strong crop ratings, the average yield estimate by analysts is 184.3 bu/acre, up 3.3 bu/acre above trend of 181.0 bu/acre. The range of estimates is from 182.5 to 188.1. Such a wide range will likely bring volatility in the market going into that report.
Corn Futures Slump to start August
After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. A weekly close below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360, while upside targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap at 430.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
- Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day higher, snapping a two-day losing streak and recovering all of Wednesday’s losses and then some. The rally was likely fueled by profit-taking on short positions by funds ahead of next week’s WASDE report, as well as support from strong export sales. In the products, soybean meal finished higher, while soybean oil closed lower.
- Today’s export sales report saw soybean sales exceed trade expectations with an increase of 17.2 million bushels for the 24/25 marketing year and an increase of 20.0 mb for 25/26. Top buyers were Taiwan, the Netherlands, and Germany. Last week’s export shipments of 25.3 mb were above the 16.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.
- The weather forecast is likely to provide some support to the soybean market as August weather is key for the bean crop development. Temperatures are forecasted to run 4-5 degrees above normal across the corn belt over the next couple weeks. Rainfall is to remain near to above normal as well for the same time period.
- Brazilian cash soybean prices have seen basis firming, making it difficult for importers to source soybeans out of Brazil. For the key fall months, U.S. soybeans are the better value on the export market, and there where whispers of Brazil end users looking to possibly source a few soybeans from the U.S.
Soybeans Test April Lows
Soybean futures remain locked in a broader sideways trend after failing to clear key resistance at the May high of $10.82 in mid-June. With largely favorable weather throughout much of the growing season, the market has struggled to build bullish momentum, and the path of least resistance has remained lower. Technically, a breakout above the 100-day moving average could open the door to filling the gap left over the July 4th weekend near $10.50. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $10.00 mark, with stronger technical support at the April lows near $9.80.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- All three wheat classes finished strong for a second straight day during Thursday’s trade. The rally was sparked by strong export sales and short covering before next week’s USDA WASDE report.
- Weekly export sales for wheat totaled 27 mb, which was at the upper end of trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments are up 21% from last year and sit at a 5-year high of 378 mb.
- Trade estimates for next week’s WASDE report have all wheat production down from 1.929 billion bushels last month to 1.922 billion bushels this month. Ending Stocks are also seen falling from 890 mb to 882 mb.
- There are reports that President Trump, Ukraine’s Zelenskyy and Russia’s Putin are set to meet in the upcoming days to discuss a resolution to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
Active
Sell JUL ’26 Cash
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 599.75 vs September for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- New upside sales target.
2026 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop
- Plan A:
- Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Holds Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June proved short-lived, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is expected just above the 500 level, which marked the lows back in May and has since acted as a solid floor. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be seen as a constructive technical signal and could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
Active
Enter(Buy) JUL ’26 KC Puts:
540 @ ~ 26c
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.
- Changes:
- None. No new active sales targets to report yet.
2026 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRW crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.
- Plan A:
- Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
Active
Enter(Buy) JUL ’26 KC Puts:
540 @ ~ 26c
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None. Still no new active sales targets to report yet.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
2026 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRS crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.
- Changes:
- None.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
- Changes:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.